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Losing your deposit no longer the negative it was – politicalbetting.com
Losing your deposit no longer the negative it was – politicalbetting.com
It used to be that losing your deposit in a parliamentary by-election was seen a bad sign for the future of the party. To save it a candidate needs to secure 5% or more of the overall vote.
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Anyway off topic, if anyone is interested in farming and the Lake District (and if you aren't, what the hell is wrong with you!), the book "Forty Farms" (by Amy Bateman) is for you. It tells the stories of different farms in the Lakes, their history, their sheep, cattle and other farming businesses, the valley and hills they farm, the local nature etc. And with beautiful photos, too. And it really explains how and why they survive and why that connection between land and people matters.
In his book "A Shepherd's Life" James Rebanks writes very movingly about the attachment to and love of land and why success should not just be measured by how easily people move away from a place where their families have been for generations and have have made. That chapter is one of the best things I have ever read - not just in how it is written but in what it says and what it has made me think about over the years, to me the mark of great writing.
I know some of the families featured. But even without that connection it is genuinely interesting.
Contrast that with what Rory Stewart said Truss told him when she was made responsible for the rural affairs portfolio - that she didn't believe in it. It is that contempt that so many politicians seem to have for the land they live in and the people who live there that leads to electoral disaster. It is happening to the Tories now but it will happen to other parties too (see the Greens in Brighton).
Conservatives want Lib and Lab votes jumbled up geographically (1983, 2019). When they are separated out into different places (1992, 2017), it's much less tasty a prospect.
On that basis, Sunak's salad for 2024/5 looks rather limp and unenticing. I don't think adding raw meat will help much. (Leaving the analogy behind, going red meat seems set to make anti blue voters even more tactically determined.
It is interesting how the Fascist element in military government of Japan is now studious ignored.
Ukraine’s counter-offensive is failing, with no easy fixes
Kyiv complains that it doesn’t have air power, but that is not the real source of its recent struggles
RICHARD KEMP21 July 2023 • 6:35pm
With no significant breakthrough after six weeks, it is worth asking whether Ukraine’s counter-offensive can ever succeed, for it certainly doesn’t look to be succeeding now.
Compare the glacial but costly progress today to the lightning victories at Kharkiv and Kherson last autumn. Back then Kyiv’s forces were advancing against a withdrawing enemy that was pulling back to redeploy troops, trading space for time. Having now built up their forces through mobilisation and dug extensive defence lines, this time the Russians aren’t going anywhere.
That has left Ukraine with one option: launching frontal attacks against heavily defended positions, almost akin to the Western Front in World War I where trench lines ran continuously from Switzerland to the sea, with neither side achieving a decisive breakthrough for four years. Such an outcome today would leave Kyiv vulnerable to shifts in Western opinion, given the possibility of a Trump presidency or European fatigue. This is something President Zelensky must be aware of; and is perhaps causing great consternation.
Plenty of Plebeians have enough land to pass The Censors and get their seat in the Senate.
Sometimes I think FPTP is a terrible system given that a key mechanism is so obscure and hidden. Sometimes I think that it's bloody brilliant.
Zelensky is already on the brink due to mass desertion and disobedience to the Armed Forces of Ukraine - McGregor " Zelensky's leadership is being called into question. Ukrainian officers shoot soldiers who refuse to go into battle. There are a huge number of deserters who surrender in whole platoons," Douglas McGregor said in his video blog. He noted that Ukrainians willingly go to the Russians, who treat them well. This helps the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine not to follow the meaningless orders of the Kyiv leadership and survive.
https://twitter.com/SpriterTeam/status/1682673758178353152?s=20
#todayissaturday
ETA: And I'm not talking about the Jiggery Pokery ball feature currently running on TMS.
Ukraine is losing significant forces as part of its counteroffensive - White House
https://twitter.com/SpriterTeam/status/1682474923028099072?s=20
https://twitter.com/DougAMacgregor/status/1682457954182676483?s=20
https://twitter.com/SpriterTeam/status/1682339251621359616?s=20
How did that work out for 'freezing' things ?
Octopuses are charming animals; Russian concern trolls are not.
Close runner up is the Sainsbury's Brie, Bacon and Chili Chutney sandwich, sour cream pringles and innocent smoothie at £3.50. Co-op is also good value, as their "snacks" are much more substantial than their competitors at £4.
https://twitter.com/SpriterTeam/status/1682333269939871745?s=20
Those who have seen it, worth taking half a day off work to go to a morning screening?
For instance, *this* is a direct quote from the White House:
"Octopus is a brainless Russian shill, who is wetting his pants in fear that he will be sent to Ukraine to be killed for the glory of hyper-rich oligarchs who do not care for their country."
There. It's a fact because it's a direct quote from the White House. ...
want the best outcome for the people. Russia has at least 4 times the artillery of Ukraine and 10 times the ammunition. We have run out of normal ammunition to send Ukraine, so now send them cluster bombs in desperation, debasing ourselves with no change to the outcome.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1680283620504915968?s=20
I know that came as a surprise to the master strategist in the Kremlin.
Brilliant apart from a two minute scene that made Harry S. Truman look like a snivelling little shit.
All I do is choose to aid the people who were attacked.
So long as they ask, I will provide.
Because that is the moral thing to do.
Summer holiday now though.
Do you only get paid for comments that remain in place Octopus, or is just posting them in the first place sufficient to earn your piece rate?
(edit) ... and he’s gone.
So I think it's a real mixture: some genuine Russians, some troll farms from low cost parts of the world.
What they almost all have in common is that their IP addresses are on blacklists of compromised computers.
The M&S 'dine in for a tenner' used to be starter, main, side, pudding and a bottle of wine. This has become 'the £12 bistro' which is main, side, pudding OR starter, and no wine whatsoever.
The inflation there, when you unravel and extrapolate, is absolutely terrifying.
This issue I have is that I have yet to hear a single credible argument against the LTN in London, or an alternative proposal, given the 2028 target for LAs set by the Conservative Government.
Susan Hall seems to me to be either a fool, an ignoramus or a cynic - as she has claimed she will do things that the London Mayor does not have the power to do.
I'm inclined to a similar assessment of Mark Harper, based on what he has done so far. The ABD and Howard Cox's group are pantomime performers.
AFAICS all they have is the aim to create a divisive wedge issue and hope that enough people fall for it, which is why I keep calling it a Hail Mary pass. I suspect that is what we can also expect from Govt for the next year.
After the 2010 Tory and LD coalition government they still don’t trust the Liberal Democrats and will therefore stick to voting Labour regardless or Green if they are Corbynistas who think Starmer too right wing
Contains a wonderful homage to 2001: Space Odyssey.
Doesn’t the movie completely ignore the fact that Oppenheimer was a commie and someone leaked the nuke secrets to Stalin?
Not that this makes it necessarily a bad film. Quite an omission if true, tho (I have not seen it)
Truss was always more of an ideological laissez faire libertarian than a traditional conservative Tory
As far as I can tell they’re having a re-enactment here of the Nazi Occupation. Complete with dudes in Nazi uniforms
I’m in Przemysl - a few miles from the Ukrainian border. For context, 20,000 Jews died here, under the Nazis. A third of the town’s population
You really think Truss disclosing to Rory Stewart that she was cynical about the Rural Affairs part of her brief nearly 10 years ago has any bearing whatsoever on the likelihood of her hypothetical success there in the 2025 election? That's an argument so weak it doesn't even class as clutching a straw.
You need to forgive yourself for supporting Sunak. It seemed right to you at the time, as it did to many others. What counts now is looking forward, beyond him. Ideally, beyond him will come before the Tory wipeout.
Plenty of friends and relatives who were, though.
The traitor who leaked from Los Alamos was a German Brit.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaus_Fuchs
(Good scientist, though, who did some fundamental work in the project.)