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edited October 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No Overall Majority now an even hotter favourite for GE15

The coming general election really is quite extraordinary. I can’t recall a time ever when all the main political parties and their leaders have been viewed with such low esteem and the polls are very tight.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    "Detrroit within range" !! (Channel 4)
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Lack of funds meant I haven't bet this at all, but many were calling it the value at 6/4, and I have never really been able to see how it hasn't been a value bet
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I've been publicly backing NOM since 2010 and for most of that time saw it as a 1/2 shot. Oddly, I feel a little less comfortable about that now precisely because both Labour and the Conservatives are polling so badly. Either one of them could streak to the finish line from here on the back of a purple patch leaving the other main party flat-footed (rather more likely Labour than the Conservatives). But I still see 8/11 as value.
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    EXCITING!!!
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    I'm on 7.8 at 48 yards...

    FTR...
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Double fail

    It was 43...
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    48!!!
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    GOOD TO GO

    BRISKY 100
  • Paul_Mid_Beds
    Paul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    Equally possible as I see it is a pathetically small Conservative majority due to the Labour vote being split 1983 style by UKIP.
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2014
    Green pen-

    50p e/w BETS ON THE GRAND NATIONAL WILL ALWAYS BE ALLOWED

    Fuck you Channel4!
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I can see a tiny Tory majority, with them largely holding off Labour in the main marginals and taking about 20 seats off the Lib Dems (I'm not really sure I really buy the theory of the Lib Dems holding up better where the Tories are their main opposition).

    Labour + the Conservatives' combined share of the vote to probably decline on 2010, which is something no-one saw coming initially after the Lib Dems' meltdown (at one point wasn't it quite a common argument that BOTH the two main parties could increase next time?).
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Scottish Labour Executive Committee met this afternoon to set timetable of leadership election. Leader to be announced on December 13th
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A new post on the secondary effects of the Greens:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/environmentally-unfriendly-who-loses.html

    Though I say it myself, I found this subject interesting.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited October 2014
    FPT

    GeoffM • Posts: 1,663
    Those who insist on a "minimum wage" must accept that it will become the default wage for the low skilled and low productivity group. An employer has no incentive or need to pay just slightly above

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As long as we have mass immigration of economic migrants the amount of people on the minimum wage is bound to increase... any job that is paid £10 ph will soon become a £6.50ph and so on

    The bosses wont lower the prices for consumer s though, so everything costs more despite the wage freeze/deflation. Mass immigration just pays for rich peoples profit margin to get bigger
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    antifrank said:

    A new post on the secondary effects of the Greens:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/environmentally-unfriendly-who-loses.html

    Though I say it myself, I found this subject interesting.

    Are you like my nemesis or something???

  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

    The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Danny565 said:

    I can see a tiny Tory majority, with them largely holding off Labour in the main marginals and taking about 20 seats off the Lib Dems (I'm not really sure I really buy the theory of the Lib Dems holding up better where the Tories are their main opposition).

    Labour + the Conservatives' combined share of the vote to probably decline on 2010, which is something no-one saw coming initially after the Lib Dems' meltdown (at one point wasn't it quite a common argument that BOTH the two main parties could increase next time?).

    So you are totally ignoring Lord A's extensive seat polling. Foolish I'd suggest.



  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Equally possible as I see it is a pathetically small Conservative majority due to the Labour vote being split 1983 style by UKIP.

    And UKIP is not going to spit the CON vote as is shown very sharply in Lord A's extensive poll. Ignore at your peril my friend.
  • FalseFlag
    FalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    anotherDave said:

    Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

    The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.

    I doubt they have any more idea about what will happen.
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2014
    isam said:

    FPT

    GeoffM • Posts: 1,663
    Those who insist on a "minimum wage" must accept that it will become the default wage for the low skilled and low productivity group. An employer has no incentive or need to pay just slightly above

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As long as we have mass immigration of economic migrants the amount of people on the minimum wage is bound to increase... any job that is paid £10 ph will soon become a £6.50ph and so on

    The bosses wont lower the prices for consumer s though, so everything costs more despite the wage freeze/deflation. Mass immigration just pays for rich peoples profit margin to get bigger

    I'm only replying because of my epic wins today and Ogh joinging the fray.

    Basically-

    As I see it-

    Every job is 7ph. Polish speak english (not all). Natives speak english. It's a fair enough playing field.

    That's my analysis.

  • david_kendrick1
    david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    UKIP would be well pleased with NOM. As has been repeatedly stated, we wouldn't win an out referendum against all the other party leaders campaigning to stay in. Some tories on here claim that makes us 'frit'. We'll only get one chance of a referendum; it would be odd if we were not nervous of losing it.

    NOM makes Brexit more likely.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    I've been saying NOM resulting in a Lib-Lab coalition for some time. I've seen nothing that would change my mind. If it happens, the result would be fantastic for UKIP's electoral prospects: just a couple of years in there will be huge numbers of disillusioned Lib-Lab voters.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Boy Sarwar soon to be live on SKY discussing SLAB leadership election timetable
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    The mixed messages from Fallon and Truss today shows the electorate the conservatives clearly do not have a policy on immigration and Europe beyond sound, fury and the status quo.

    At least milliband is honest about his policy.
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    MikeSmithson said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Equally possible as I see it is a pathetically small Conservative majority due to the Labour vote being split 1983 style by UKIP.

    And UKIP is not going to spit the CON vote as is shown very sharply in Lord A's extensive poll. Ignore at your peril my friend.
    That is doing my head in. Did you mean to put a question mark after "poll"?

  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2014
    Nominations open on 31st October and close on Tuesday 4th November

    Ballot begins on Nov 17
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Boy Sarwar soon to be live on SKY discussing SLAB leadership election timetable

    I hope you have your notebook out and will give us the relevant info in the fullness of time Andrea

  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited October 2014
    .
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Looks as if Tony Benn had some good IHT advisers...Stansgate Abbey also left in a family trust.

    "The former Labour Cabinet Minister, who died aged 88 in March, left an estate of £5,085,001, reduced after liabilities to £5,020,389, probate records revealed yesterday."

    Read more: http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Tony-Benn-s-reveals-did-leave-penny-Labour-Party/story-23553362-detail/story.html#ixzz3HGydNFD6
  • JonWC
    JonWC Posts: 289
    Can anyone tell me if there is a decent spread market for GE seats anywhere?
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Yay,

    Laptop totally hacked - one presumes by MI6.

    However - we do have a 7.8 to celebrate-

    http://youtu.be/4aIp7ZbXZDw
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    JonWC said:

    Can anyone tell me if there is a decent spread market for GE seats anywhere?

    Work it out with your Casio and your constituencies.


  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    THE BRISKMEISTER STRIKES AGAIN
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    antifrank said:

    A new post on the secondary effects of the Greens:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/environmentally-unfriendly-who-loses.html

    Though I say it myself, I found this subject interesting.

    A very good post. The stereotypical Green voter is a young, non-religious graduate, in a relatively poorly-paying professional job.

    The Greens should in with a shout in Norwich South.
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Tony Benn..a true socialist...so very Labour..
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    I appear to be getting a breathing space today. Therefore I can allow, presumably the lurkers, some info-

    There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

    Con Maj - 25
    Lab Maj - 25
    Lab Min - 25
    Con Min - 25
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Good evening, everyone.

    I was looking for something else on Twitter but came across a politically relevant tweet that is mildly amusing, on expenditure for US/UK elections:
    https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/526391823213035520

    Apparently 80 General Elections in the UK could be paid for with the money spent on the US mid-terms in 2014.
  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    isam said:

    FPT

    GeoffM • Posts: 1,663
    Those who insist on a "minimum wage" must accept that it will become the default wage for the low skilled and low productivity group. An employer has no incentive or need to pay just slightly above

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As long as we have mass immigration of economic migrants the amount of people on the minimum wage is bound to increase... any job that is paid £10 ph will soon become a £6.50ph and so on

    The bosses wont lower the prices for consumer s though, so everything costs more despite the wage freeze/deflation. Mass immigration just pays for rich peoples profit margin to get bigger

    Yes, agree with that all - including (as an employer and not-yet-but-wannabe rich person) the last bit. .
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    anotherDave said:

    Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

    The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.

    That's my view too.

    So far, it has been an unprofitable one.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    JBriskin said:

    I appear to be getting a breathing space today. Therefore I can allow, presumably the lurkers, some info-

    There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

    Con Maj - 25
    Lab Maj - 25
    Lab Min - 25
    Con Min - 25

    Probably these guys -- http://electionsetc.com/
  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    I was looking for something else on Twitter but came across a politically relevant tweet that is mildly amusing, on expenditure for US/UK elections:
    https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/526391823213035520

    Apparently 80 General Elections in the UK could be paid for with the money spent on the US mid-terms in 2014.

    Are NBC aware that the US and the UK are different sizes?
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    RobD said:

    JBriskin said:

    I appear to be getting a breathing space today. Therefore I can allow, presumably the lurkers, some info-

    There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

    Con Maj - 25
    Lab Maj - 25
    Lab Min - 25
    Con Min - 25

    Probably these guys -- http://electionsetc.com/
    I clicked on your link and it came up quite promptly with the name Stephen Fisher. I presume there is more than one psephologist in the country...
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    david_kendrick1 said:

    UKIP would be well pleased with NOM. As has been repeatedly stated, we wouldn't win an out referendum against all the other party leaders campaigning to stay in. Some tories on here claim that makes us 'frit'. We'll only get one chance of a referendum; it would be odd if we were not nervous of losing it.

    NOM makes Brexit more likely.

    Hi David. Good to see you posting again.

    How are your plans to become an MP going? Still putting your name forward?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. M, to be fair, the US population is about six or seven times that of the UK, so even allowing for that, the difference is significant.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    GeoffM said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    I was looking for something else on Twitter but came across a politically relevant tweet that is mildly amusing, on expenditure for US/UK elections:
    https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/526391823213035520

    Apparently 80 General Elections in the UK could be paid for with the money spent on the US mid-terms in 2014.

    Are NBC aware that the US and the UK are different sizes?
    Given how low turnout will be at the mid-terms, the gap is smaller than you think.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    rcs1000 said:

    anotherDave said:

    Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

    The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.

    That's my view too.

    So far, it has been an unprofitable one.
    Defence + gains from the Lib Dems could still see the Conservatives on c.300 seats. I can't see anything in current polling or actual election results that points to a Labour majority.

  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    edited October 2014
    GeoffM said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    I was looking for something else on Twitter but came across a politically relevant tweet that is mildly amusing, on expenditure for US/UK elections:
    https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/526391823213035520

    Apparently 80 General Elections in the UK could be paid for with the money spent on the US mid-terms in 2014.

    Are NBC aware that the US and the UK are different sizes?
    A fairer comparison would be the amount we spend on locals.. I imagine the factor would be closer to 250x....

    Edit - actually, probably not fairer, given that the legislature is up for election in the mid-terms.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Socrates said:

    I've been saying NOM resulting in a Lib-Lab coalition for some time. I've seen nothing that would change my mind. If it happens, the result would be fantastic for UKIP's electoral prospects: just a couple of years in there will be huge numbers of disillusioned Lib-Lab voters.

    I don't think a rump (sub 20 mps) Libdem party is going to be going into coalition with anyone.
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Topic: Election money

    Tories:millionaires
    Labour: unions
    Lib Dems: we don't really know but a fair few hundred quids from door knocking.

    Brisky Memo Over
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Got lost due to the curse of the new thread... a warning from across the Channel:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11187602/The-wealth-tax-a-tax-on-the-rich-that-cripples-the-poor.html
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Addendum:

    Ukip: EU expenses (please don't sue me Farrrage)
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    JBriskin said:

    There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

    Con Maj - 25
    Lab Maj - 25
    Lab Min - 25
    Con Min - 25


    I think I can confidently make a prediction:-

    Con Maj - Possibly
    Lab Maj - Maybe
    Lab Min - Could be
    Con Min - Might happen

  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    RobD said:

    GeoffM said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    I was looking for something else on Twitter but came across a politically relevant tweet that is mildly amusing, on expenditure for US/UK elections:
    https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/526391823213035520

    Apparently 80 General Elections in the UK could be paid for with the money spent on the US mid-terms in 2014.

    Are NBC aware that the US and the UK are different sizes?
    A fairer comparison would be the amount we spend on locals.. I imagine the factor would be closer to 250x....

    Edit - actually, probably not fairer, given that the legislature is up for election in the mid-terms.
    Yes - as a number in isolation it's an interesting observation but the comparison doesn't survive much scrutiny.
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    MarkHopkins said:

    JBriskin said:

    There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

    Con Maj - 25
    Lab Maj - 25
    Lab Min - 25
    Con Min - 25


    I think I can confidently make a prediction:-

    Con Maj - Possibly
    Lab Maj - Maybe
    Lab Min - Could be
    Con Min - Might happen

    Are you Oxbridge as well?

    Serious question.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I repeat he needs to get over it.... can't help himself.

    Douglas Carswell MP ✔ @DouglasCarswell
    “@SkyNews: Are The Conservatives Trying To Out-UKIP UKIP? http://news.sky.com/story/1360747/are-the-conservatives-trying-to-out-ukip-ukip …” <- crass folly of sofa clique in Downing St exposed
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    JBriskin said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    JBriskin said:

    There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

    Con Maj - 25
    Lab Maj - 25
    Lab Min - 25
    Con Min - 25


    I think I can confidently make a prediction:-

    Con Maj - Possibly
    Lab Maj - Maybe
    Lab Min - Could be
    Con Min - Might happen

    Are you Oxbridge as well?

    Serious question.

    Possibly. Why?

  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    david_kendrick1 said:

    UKIP would be well pleased with NOM. As has been repeatedly stated, we wouldn't win an out referendum against all the other party leaders campaigning to stay in. Some tories on here claim that makes us 'frit'. We'll only get one chance of a referendum; it would be odd if we were not nervous of losing it.

    NOM makes Brexit more likely.

    Weasel words when it comes to to running cravenly away from the opportunity of a referendum.
    The tories offer a referendum. NOM makes that less likey and so staying in more likely.
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2014
    MarkHopkins said:

    JBriskin said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    JBriskin said:

    There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

    Con Maj - 25
    Lab Maj - 25
    Lab Min - 25
    Con Min - 25


    I think I can confidently make a prediction:-

    Con Maj - Possibly
    Lab Maj - Maybe
    Lab Min - Could be
    Con Min - Might happen

    Are you Oxbridge as well?

    Serious question.

    Possibly. Why?

    Because my source was solid and from Oxbridge - presumably Dr or Prof. You are posting on a serious betting forum. My Stats are solid as fuck and you are taking the piss out of them.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    Angela Merkel opposes Cameron EU renegotiation plan

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/26/angela-merkel-opposes-cameron-eu-renegotiation-plan

    Downing Street has suggested his proposals will either be a points system for EU migration, or, if they're less brave, a proper emergency brake. He claims the UK public are "his boss", not anyone in the EU, so let's see whether his proposals follow through or not. I have a feeling he will buckle to his EU masters, as he did with the veto that wasn't, but let us see.
  • nigel4england
    nigel4england Posts: 4,800
    My three card bets all won at 5/2, 2/1 and 2/1 ish.

    Who said this isn't a betting site any more!
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Scrapheap, he's still scweaming.

    There's a special contempt people have for those whom they once held dear.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Socrates said:

    I've been saying NOM resulting in a Lib-Lab coalition for some time. I've seen nothing that would change my mind. If it happens, the result would be fantastic for UKIP's electoral prospects: just a couple of years in there will be huge numbers of disillusioned Lib-Lab voters.

    I think the Conservatives would adopt Brexit and move well to the Right, in Opposition to such a government, and that would shoot UKIP's fox. Like you, my attitude to parties is an instrumental one. Such a Conservative party would regain my support, if I thought they were genuine.

    If the Conservatives remained as they are, in Opposition to such a government, then UKIP's prospects would be golden, particularly if Milliband actually implemented his affirmative action proposals for ethnic minorities.

  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    I've been saying NOM resulting in a Lib-Lab coalition for some time. I've seen nothing that would change my mind. If it happens, the result would be fantastic for UKIP's electoral prospects: just a couple of years in there will be huge numbers of disillusioned Lib-Lab voters.

    I think the Conservatives would adopt Brexit and move well to the Right, in Opposition to such a government, and that would shoot UKIP's fox. Like you, my attitude to parties is an instrumental one. Such a Conservative party would regain my support, if I thought they were genuine.

    If the Conservatives remained as they are, in Opposition to such a government, then UKIP's prospects would be golden, particularly if Milliband actually implemented his affirmative action proposals for ethnic minorities.

    If the Tories adopted Brexit as policy in opposition, then they should merge with UKIP. The "Conservatives" brand is so stained as being upper class at the moment that it would be a great chance of a rebranding exercise. They could say they are making a new party to represent all Britons, poor and rich, north and south, with a new name. "The Reform Party" would work.
  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    JBriskin said:

    My Stats are solid as fuck and you are taking the piss out of them.

    Is that one of these new-fanged metric measurements? Or is it one of the really useful ones like 'size of Wales' which is the industry standard SI unit for icebergs? Or the Nelson's Column which is invaluable for skyscraper visualisation?

  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    JBriskin said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    JBriskin said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    JBriskin said:

    There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

    Con Maj - 25
    Lab Maj - 25
    Lab Min - 25
    Con Min - 25


    I think I can confidently make a prediction:-

    Con Maj - Possibly
    Lab Maj - Maybe
    Lab Min - Could be
    Con Min - Might happen

    Are you Oxbridge as well?

    Serious question.

    Possibly. Why?

    Because my source was solid and from Oxbridge - presumably Dr or Prof. You are posting on a serious betting forum. My Stats are solid as fuck and you are taking the piss out of them.

    Are you drunk?

  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2014
    GeoffM said:

    JBriskin said:

    My Stats are solid as fuck and you are taking the piss out of them.

    Is that one of these new-fanged metric measurements? Or is it one of the really useful ones like 'size of Wales' which is the industry standard SI unit for icebergs? Or the Nelson's Column which is invaluable for skyscraper visualisation?

    I didn't italicise.

    You did.

    However, since I probably improve on misquotation, har har har...

    In this case, I shall reaffirm because of my relative faith in them - And because I'm pro-lurker and pro-PB, that an Oxbridge Dr or Prof, stated that the odds were-

    Con Maj - 25
    Lab Maj - 25
    Con Min - 25
    Lab Min - 25

    EDITED - you may choose your own reason
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    Violent robber absconds from open prison:

    http://www.kentonline.co.uk/sheerness/news/violent-robber-on-the-run-25918/

    The Ken Clarke-style liberal prison policy needs to end. It's a risk to the general public. Violent robbers should be in six square foot cells in maximum security prisons, not in holiday camps.
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    MarkHopkins said:

    JBriskin said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    JBriskin said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    JBriskin said:

    There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

    Con Maj - 25
    Lab Maj - 25
    Lab Min - 25
    Con Min - 25


    I think I can confidently make a prediction:-

    Con Maj - Possibly
    Lab Maj - Maybe
    Lab Min - Could be
    Con Min - Might happen

    Are you Oxbridge as well?

    Serious question.

    Possibly. Why?

    Because my source was solid and from Oxbridge - presumably Dr or Prof. You are posting on a serious betting forum. My Stats are solid as fuck and you are taking the piss out of them.

    Are you drunk?

    Are you sober?

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. F, not fond of the term 'affirmative action'. It's just bigotry which someone who's 'right on' has decided is acceptable. We should judge men by the content of their character, not the colour of their skin.
  • PrinceofTaranto
    PrinceofTaranto Posts: 335
    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    PrinceofTaranto said:

    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

    I would say to this - SHITE

    But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

    Very Poor
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    rcs1000 said:

    anotherDave said:

    Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

    The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.

    That's my view too.

    So far, it has been an unprofitable one.
    Just which seats are the Lib Dems going to lose though ?

    Tory targets:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/

    I think it would be fair to hand all Lib Dem targets down to Berwick Upon Tweed (Not Norwich South or Bradford East though) and not Sutton and Cheam.

    I make that 12 gains.

    Looking at Labour's list I make it 11 gains for them.

    UKIP Gain 10 seats say - 8 Tory 2 Labour

    SNP gain 3 Labour perhaps ? (The Lib Dem seats surely drop more easily than the Labour targets)

    So Con + 12
    Lab + 11
    Con -8
    Lab -2
    Lab -3

    Yields a start point of Con +4; Lab -6 from the 2010 totals.

    The main contradiction in my mind at the moment is the local Lib Dem strength in in particular the SW which made these gains TRICKY for the Tories, and the appalling Lib Dem national numbers.

    I think @David Herdson of this parish said that in order for the Lib Dems to hold some seats they'd need to lose 6 out of 7 votes elsewhere, which he thought inconceivable. Perhaps it isn't.

  • PrinceofTaranto
    PrinceofTaranto Posts: 335
    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

    I would say to this - SHITE

    But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

    Very Poor
    Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?
  • volcanopete
    volcanopete Posts: 2,078
    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    I've been saying NOM resulting in a Lib-Lab coalition for some time. I've seen nothing that would change my mind. If it happens, the result would be fantastic for UKIP's electoral prospects: just a couple of years in there will be huge numbers of disillusioned Lib-Lab voters.

    I don't think a rump (sub 20 mps) Libdem party is going to be going into coalition with anyone.
    Norman Lamb made in very clear at L/D conference that partnering up with Labour was not going to happen and for Labour there is still the presence of Clegg to overcome. L/D M ,especially Lamb's fellow Orange book neo-cons,didn't argue with him whatever L/D members might say.The only game in town for the L/Ds is another coalition with the Tories.

  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    2011 census says 1,721 lives in Broxtowe. Some of them may already be Nick's fans.
    PrinceofTaranto said:

    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited October 2014
    I'm not really tempted to add to NOM at odds on.
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    PrinceofTaranto said:

    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

    I would say to this - SHITE

    But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

    Very Poor
    Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?
    YOU HAVE 10 POSTS AND HAVE MANAGED TO PATHETICALLY REFERENCE NPXNP AS WELL AS CONFIRMED TEAM CASIO MEMBER SUNIL IN ONE POST

    You'll probably manage to wind us all up within a few months and be PB Star.

    Have fun
  • PrinceofTaranto
    PrinceofTaranto Posts: 335
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    2011 census says 1,721 lives in Broxtowe. Some of them may already be Nick's fans.


    PrinceofTaranto said:

    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

    Thanks .Not many then but in a tight election....
  • numbercruncher
    numbercruncher Posts: 136
    I've updated my Scottish Westminster estimates with the latest data, toplines are:

    SNP 41 (+2)
    LAB 26 (-1)
    CON 17 (=)
    LIB 5 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+1)
    UKIP 2 (-1)
    OTH 4 (=)

    This is, as before, very similar to the crosstab aggregation method, which suggests that the weighting bias is quite small. Full details including comparison and charts here:

    http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/scotland-update-snp-41-2-lab-26-1-con.html

    Also, if anyone is following Brazil tonight, I've had a look at Brazilian polling. There is a clear 'shy PSDB factor' in first round voting, but the second round can be all over the place:

    http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/is-there-shy-tory-factor-in-brazil.html
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    anotherDave said:

    Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

    The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.

    That's my view too.

    So far, it has been an unprofitable one.
    Just which seats are the Lib Dems going to lose though ?

    Tory targets:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/

    I think it would be fair to hand all Lib Dem targets down to Berwick Upon Tweed (Not Norwich South or Bradford East though) and not Sutton and Cheam.

    I make that 12 gains.

    Looking at Labour's list I make it 11 gains for them.

    UKIP Gain 10 seats say - 8 Tory 2 Labour

    SNP gain 3 Labour perhaps ? (The Lib Dem seats surely drop more easily than the Labour targets)

    So Con + 12
    Lab + 11
    Con -8
    Lab -2
    Lab -3

    Yields a start point of Con +4; Lab -6 from the 2010 totals.

    The main contradiction in my mind at the moment is the local Lib Dem strength in in particular the SW which made these gains TRICKY for the Tories, and the appalling Lib Dem national numbers.

    I think @David Herdson of this parish said that in order for the Lib Dems to hold some seats they'd need to lose 6 out of 7 votes elsewhere, which he thought inconceivable. Perhaps it isn't.

    Any seat that Lord A had the LDs within 5% will probably go yellow. Lord A doesn't mention candidates' names and the polling I've seen oes shows this is a major factor.

    Against LAB Simon Hughes and possibly Lynne Featherstone will hold on as will Cambridge.

    Watford is an LD gain and there's an outside chance of Oxwab.

    Incumbents standing again against the Tories will do okay. Where there's new candidate it will be different.

    Finally watch Burnley. Individuals matter enormously and the incumbent is very strong.

  • Itajai
    Itajai Posts: 721

    Good to see Tony Benn took a cue from the Millipedes in their attitude to IHT. Strictly for the proles.
  • PrinceofTaranto
    PrinceofTaranto Posts: 335
    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

    I would say to this - SHITE

    But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

    Very Poor
    Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?
    YOU HAVE 10 POSTS AND HAVE MANAGED TO PATHETICALLY REFERENCE NPXNP AS WELL AS CONFIRMED TEAM CASIO MEMBER SUNIL IN ONE POST

    You'll probably manage to wind us all up within a few months and be PB Star.

    Have fun
    Well you have to start somewhere.If you all find it so pathetic I don't think I'll bother - I thought this site wanted to encourage new participants or is it an old lags only affair?
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

    I would say to this - SHITE

    But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

    Very Poor
    I think Anna Soubry has already given up. Nick P will be back with reasonable margin. Lord A had 45% 2010 LDs switching to him and he's done a huge amount on the ground.

    Like Nick the candidates in 10 of LAB's top 40 targets are retreads. It'll be interesting to see if they still have an incumbency benefit.

  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

    I would say to this - SHITE

    But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

    Very Poor
    Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?
    YOU HAVE 10 POSTS AND HAVE MANAGED TO PATHETICALLY REFERENCE NPXNP AS WELL AS CONFIRMED TEAM CASIO MEMBER SUNIL IN ONE POST

    You'll probably manage to wind us all up within a few months and be PB Star.

    Have fun
    Post number snobbery? Really?

    (belated) Welcome to PB, PrinceofTaranto.
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    PrinceofTaranto said:

    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

    I would say to this - SHITE

    But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

    Very Poor
    Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?
    YOU HAVE 10 POSTS AND HAVE MANAGED TO PATHETICALLY REFERENCE NPXNP AS WELL AS CONFIRMED TEAM CASIO MEMBER SUNIL IN ONE POST

    You'll probably manage to wind us all up within a few months and be PB Star.

    Have fun
    Well you have to start somewhere.If you all find it so pathetic I don't think I'll bother - I thought this site wanted to encourage new participants or is it an old lags only affair?
    I just broke Channel 4 with a 2 quid 7/1 min bet. You may or may not know that. I can type for a bit more.

    May I ask you -

    Does Taranto refer to Tarantino or Toronoto or both??

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Prince of Taranto, not sure what Briskin's meaning was there. I also wouldn't necessarily take any one individual (except Ave It, of course) as indicative or representative of the site as a whole.
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    MikeSmithson said:

    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

    I would say to this - SHITE

    But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

    Very Poor
    I think Anna Soubry has already given up. Nick P will be back with reasonable margin. Lord A had 45% 2010 LDs switching to him and he's done a huge amount on the ground.

    Like Nick the candidates in 10 of LAB's top 40 targets are retreads. It'll be interesting to see if they still have an incumbency benefit.

    Anna S has the PB effect to some existent Mr S...
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    MikeSmithson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    anotherDave said:

    Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

    The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.

    That's my view too.

    So far, it has been an unprofitable one.
    Just which seats are the Lib Dems going to lose though ?

    Tory targets:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/

    I think it would be fair to hand all Lib Dem targets down to Berwick Upon Tweed (Not Norwich South or Bradford East though) and not Sutton and Cheam.

    I make that 12 gains.

    Looking at Labour's list I make it 11 gains for them.

    UKIP Gain 10 seats say - 8 Tory 2 Labour

    SNP gain 3 Labour perhaps ? (The Lib Dem seats surely drop more easily than the Labour targets)

    So Con + 12
    Lab + 11
    Con -8
    Lab -2
    Lab -3

    Yields a start point of Con +4; Lab -6 from the 2010 totals.

    The main contradiction in my mind at the moment is the local Lib Dem strength in in particular the SW which made these gains TRICKY for the Tories, and the appalling Lib Dem national numbers.

    I think @David Herdson of this parish said that in order for the Lib Dems to hold some seats they'd need to lose 6 out of 7 votes elsewhere, which he thought inconceivable. Perhaps it isn't.

    Any seat that Lord A had the LDs within 5% will probably go yellow. Lord A doesn't mention candidates' names and the polling I've seen oes shows this is a major factor.

    Against LAB Simon Hughes and possibly Lynne Featherstone will hold on as will Cambridge.

    Watford is an LD gain and there's an outside chance of Oxwab.

    Incumbents standing again against the Tories will do okay. Where there's new candidate it will be different.

    Finally watch Burnley. Individuals matter enormously and the incumbent is very strong.

    Sounds like you're predicting a bit more than the 20 seats your son has gone for !

    I've only placed 1 decent bet for Tory vs Lib Dem (Solihull)
  • PrinceofTaranto
    PrinceofTaranto Posts: 335
    MikeSmithson said:

    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

    I would say to this - SHITE

    But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

    Very Poor
    I think Anna Soubry has already given up. Nick P will be back with reasonable margin. Lord A had 45% 2010 LDs switching to him and he's done a huge amount on the ground.

    Like Nick the candidates in 10 of LAB's top 40 targets are retreads. It'll be interesting to see if they still have an incumbency benefit.

    From a UKIP point of view Anna Soubry I believe is public enemy number one after the Farage QT affair. What I am not sure is what they will do to help get her out but if they have anything to do with it I also think she will be a goner .
  • JohnO
    JohnO Posts: 4,312
    edited October 2014
    MikeSmithson said:

    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

    I would say to this - SHITE

    But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

    Very Poor
    I think Anna Soubry has already given up. Nick P will be back with reasonable margin. Lord A had 45% 2010 LDs switching to him and he's done a huge amount on the ground.

    Like Nick the candidates in 10 of LAB's top 40 targets are retreads. It'll be interesting to see if they still have an incumbency benefit.

    Have you any evidence, I mean any evidence at all, that Anna Soubry has "given up"?
  • PrinceofTaranto
    PrinceofTaranto Posts: 335
    GeoffM said:

    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

    I would say to this - SHITE

    But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

    Very Poor
    Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?
    YOU HAVE 10 POSTS AND HAVE MANAGED TO PATHETICALLY REFERENCE NPXNP AS WELL AS CONFIRMED TEAM CASIO MEMBER SUNIL IN ONE POST

    You'll probably manage to wind us all up within a few months and be PB Star.

    Have fun
    Post number snobbery? Really?

    (belated) Welcome to PB, PrinceofTaranto.
    Thanks .I have enjoyed it so far.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Someone called that Ivanovic was likely to take a long walk yesterday. Good call for whoever it was.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    or to Italian town Taranto?
    JBriskin said:

    Does Taranto refer to Tarantino or Toronoto or both??

  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    anotherDave said:

    Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

    The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.

    That's my view too.

    So far, it has been an unprofitable one.
    Just which seats are the Lib Dems going to lose though ?

    Tory targets:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/

    I think it would be fair to hand all Lib Dem targets down to Berwick Upon Tweed (Not Norwich South or Bradford East though) and not Sutton and Cheam.

    I make that 12 gains.

    Looking at Labour's list I make it 11 gains for them.

    UKIP Gain 10 seats say - 8 Tory 2 Labour

    SNP gain 3 Labour perhaps ? (The Lib Dem seats surely drop more easily than the Labour targets)

    So Con + 12
    Lab + 11
    Con -8
    Lab -2
    Lab -3

    Yields a start point of Con +4; Lab -6 from the 2010 totals.

    The main contradiction in my mind at the moment is the local Lib Dem strength in in particular the SW which made these gains TRICKY for the Tories, and the appalling Lib Dem national numbers.

    I think @David Herdson of this parish said that in order for the Lib Dems to hold some seats they'd need to lose 6 out of 7 votes elsewhere, which he thought inconceivable. Perhaps it isn't.

    Any seat that Lord A had the LDs within 5% will probably go yellow. Lord A doesn't mention candidates' names and the polling I've seen oes shows this is a major factor.

    Against LAB Simon Hughes and possibly Lynne Featherstone will hold on as will Cambridge.

    Watford is an LD gain and there's an outside chance of Oxwab.

    Incumbents standing again against the Tories will do okay. Where there's new candidate it will be different.

    Finally watch Burnley. Individuals matter enormously and the incumbent is very strong.

    Sounds like you're predicting a bit more than the 20 seats your son has gone for !

    I've only placed 1 decent bet for Tory vs Lib Dem (Solihull)
    I don't think my son has access to the same data that I have.

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Dr. Parma, is Taranto the modern name for Tarentum?
  • PrinceofTaranto
    PrinceofTaranto Posts: 335
    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

    I would say to this - SHITE

    But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

    Very Poor
    Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?
    YOU HAVE 10 POSTS AND HAVE MANAGED TO PATHETICALLY REFERENCE NPXNP AS WELL AS CONFIRMED TEAM CASIO MEMBER SUNIL IN ONE POST

    You'll probably manage to wind us all up within a few months and be PB Star.

    Have fun
    Well you have to start somewhere.If you all find it so pathetic I don't think I'll bother - I thought this site wanted to encourage new participants or is it an old lags only affair?
    I just broke Channel 4 with a 2 quid 7/1 min bet. You may or may not know that. I can type for a bit more.

    May I ask you -

    Does Taranto refer to Tarantino or Toronoto or both??

    No it is a city and province in Southern Italy in Apulia
  • Paul_Mid_Beds
    Paul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    MikeSmithson said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Equally possible as I see it is a pathetically small Conservative majority due to the Labour vote being split 1983 style by UKIP.

    And UKIP is not going to spit the CON vote as is shown very sharply in Lord A's extensive poll. Ignore at your peril my friend.
    Agree that his what his polls indicate. However, I think that Labour will collapse once the election nears and people have to make a decision, just as in 1992, look at Ed and decide "Not you mate", a lot of those will go to UKIP.

    The tories have a "hold on to nurse for fear of something worse" advantage as a lot of people will allow their wallet to vote for them (those with assets/money to lose if Labour come in and implode the economy or implement a hard left economic agenda with wealth taxes etc, or just if they fear whether they are economically competent.

    In such a situation UKIP will start picking up more Labour than tory voters in marginals and will produce a 1983 situation, handing the tories a disproportionate number of seats.

    If the Tories do get a majority though, be afraid be very afraid. Once they implement things like Beecroft they will be exceptionally unpopular.
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    or to Italian town Taranto?

    JBriskin said:

    Does Taranto refer to Tarantino or Toronoto or both??

    I would dismiss that as unlikely given I've got MI6 on my back - but, maybe...

  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Yes (and yes, I had to check)
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Dr. Parma, is Taranto the modern name for Tarentum?

  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    JBriskin said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

    I would say to this - SHITE

    But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

    Very Poor
    Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?
    YOU HAVE 10 POSTS AND HAVE MANAGED TO PATHETICALLY REFERENCE NPXNP AS WELL AS CONFIRMED TEAM CASIO MEMBER SUNIL IN ONE POST

    You'll probably manage to wind us all up within a few months and be PB Star.

    Have fun
    Well you have to start somewhere.If you all find it so pathetic I don't think I'll bother - I thought this site wanted to encourage new participants or is it an old lags only affair?
    I just broke Channel 4 with a 2 quid 7/1 min bet. You may or may not know that. I can type for a bit more.

    May I ask you -

    Does Taranto refer to Tarantino or Toronoto or both??

    Probably neither. The city is famous to military historians though:

    "Taranto, and the night of November 11–12, 1940, should be remembered for ever as having shown once and for all that in the Fleet Air Arm the Navy has its most devastating weapon." Admiral Cunningham
This discussion has been closed.

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