Mortgage payments increasingly becoming a big issue – politicalbetting.com

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

There are iconic moments of cheating/gamesmanship

In cricket:

Bodyline
THIS

We get it. You went to a cricket match, a rare occurrence, and got all het up with the rest of the boozed up punters there and you enjoyed the camaraderie which is not a usual experience for you and out of a sense of loyalty to those people (you'll never see them again, obvs), and to keep that feeling going, you continue to fight the good fight on here.

Perfectly understandable and of course the actual rights or wrongs of the situation are immaterial.

I WAS THERE

They will talk about this game for years, maybe decades. For the iconic "cheating" and the best Test innings ever scored on English soil - all on the same day

Amd OMFG I was there. I am sorry you weren't - but there you go

You always have the recompense of having the most up-to-date Shazam list of an averagely lonely, tragic, slightly snobbish upper middle class man in his mid 50s who has nothing else to talk about but sports of which he knows nothing, because he doesn't like sport, really, despite his tortured isolated, sporty public school upbringing

Sorry, where were you? I must've missed that.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Leon said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Andy_JS said:

"Virginia Woolf classic joins growing list with ‘ludicrous’ trigger warnings
To the Lighthouse from 1927 now carries warning that the book ‘reflects the attitudes of its time’"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/01/virginia-woolf-to-the-lighthouse-trigger-warning-vintage/

How stupid would you have to be to read a book from 1927 and not expect it to reflect the attitudes of the time?

My personal view is that it should have a trigger warnings for being drivelling crap.

I really, REALLY detest Virginia Woolf. All the more so because I went through a phase in my thirties of convincing myself it could not be as bad as I thought and it must just be the particular books I was reading. So I tried reading as much as possible to prove myself wrong. I failed and that is many weeks of reading time I will never get back.

You are almost completely right. She is absolute shite in her modernist guise. To The Lighthouse etc. All I could think was: JUST GO TO THE FUCKING LIGHTHOUSE, BITCH

So dull

She is - in this medium - James Joyce but with 3% of his linguistic skill. And she knew this, deep down, hence her loathing and fear of him. She publicly reviled Ulysses even tho it was absolutely clear that Joyce had achieved, with majestic elan, what she had tentatively and falteringly nudged at

HOWEVER she is still is still a great writer. Try "Orlando" - she wrote it in a few brisk weeks yet it is brilliant and witty and very prescient about changing gender roles, it is her true masterpiece. She wrote it in six weeks and therefore, I think, dismissed it. She was wrong

She was also great on the subject of creativity and writing in general. "A Room of One's Own" is full of insights for the ages, especially for any artist

Her problem is that she is revered for rather dire modernist failures, yet her genuine spleandour goes unappreciated

I did wonder if I was simply too unintelligent to appreciate the stream of consciousness stuff. At least as she wrote it. After all that was part of the Bloomsbury Set ethos - that art should be elitist and difficult because the proles should not be able to understand it. Maybe I am just a prole.

And yet. I can list dozens of writers, poets and artists far better whose work is not always easy but it rewards effort. Stefan Zweig, EE Cummings, Umberto Eco and Lawrence Durrell to start with. You have to work at all of them but if you make the effort then the result is wondrous. With Woolf the only feeling I am left with is pointlessness.

I quite enjoyed Mrs Dalloway, just saying.

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

There are iconic moments of cheating/gamesmanship

In cricket:

Bodyline
THIS

We get it. You went to a cricket match, a rare occurrence, and got all het up with the rest of the boozed up punters there and you enjoyed the camaraderie which is not a usual experience for you and out of a sense of loyalty to those people (you'll never see them again, obvs), and to keep that feeling going, you continue to fight the good fight on here.

Perfectly understandable and of course the actual rights or wrongs of the situation are immaterial.

I WAS THERE

They will talk about this game for years, maybe decades. For the iconic "cheating" and the best Test innings ever scored on English soil - all on the same day

Amd OMFG I was there. I am sorry you weren't - but there you go

You always have the recompense of having the most up-to-date Shazam list of an averagely lonely, tragic, slightly snobbish upper middle class man in his mid 50s who has nothing else to talk about but sports of which he knows nothing, because he doesn't like sport, really, despite his tortured isolated, sporty public school upbringing

Sorry, where were you? I must've missed that.

I promised not to gloat, so I'm keeping it very much "under wraps"

Believe it or not, I am actually genuinely pleased for you. It could so easily have been a non-playing day.

Mind you, had England won... you'd have been one of the half a million or so of us who were there that day.

Leon said:

That is quite an extraordinary fall in the Albanian birthrate, 15% in one year. Look at the Baltics as well. Eastern Europe may boast that it is catching up with the UK in "GDP per capita" but one of the main reasons is that there's only about six people left in Estonia, Slovakia, etc

It's not hard to be wealthy per capita when your entire GDP is divided between two people. Both elderly

Maybe it's just our alien overlords' way of resolving global warming?

Either that or all those cellphone radio waves are frying our sperm.

Leon said:

That is quite an extraordinary fall in the Albanian birthrate, 15% in one year. Look at the Baltics as well. Eastern Europe may boast that it is catching up with the UK in "GDP per capita" but one of the main reasons is that there's only about six people left in Estonia, Slovakia, etc

It's not hard to be wealthy per capita when your entire GDP is divided between two people. Both elderly

A surprisingly high percentage of young Albanian men are currently in the UK.

stodge said:

Evening all

The Redfield & Wilton and Deltapoll numbers don't show a lot of movement from last week.

The England sub sample from R&W has Labour on 48%, Conservatives on 28%, Liberal Democrats on 12%, Greens on 6%, Reform on 5%.

The swing from Conservative to Labour in England is 16.5% while the swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 9.5%.

As for Deltapoll, the lead remains at 23 points - 15 points among men and 31 points among women. The Conservatives lead 43-30 among 65+ voters (this was a group they won 64-17 in 2019 so that's a 17% swing in that key demographic).

These subsamples aren’t weighted - ergo meaningless. It beggars belief that you routinely extract such long posts from such scant material.

Apparently Saturn now has 140+ moons. Turns out there is an awful lot of floating rocks and ice out there.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230703-why-saturns-moons-have-remained-hidden-from-view

Leon said:

That is quite an extraordinary fall in the Albanian birthrate, 15% in one year. Look at the Baltics as well. Eastern Europe may boast that it is catching up with the UK in "GDP per capita" but one of the main reasons is that there's only about six people left in Estonia, Slovakia, etc

It's not hard to be wealthy per capita when your entire GDP is divided between two people. Both elderly

Population decline looks like it will be quite a dramatic process in the next century. We already know how Russia has decided to tackle its demogrpahic problem of course (whilst Ukraine was already in trouble before, er, recent events).

House of Lords votes against Government's migrants proposals fresh from the Court of Appeal's ruling against its plans for deportations to Rwanda.

'The House of Lords has voted against government plans to weaken detention limits for children and pregnant women in its migration bill.

The legislation would scrap existing legal caps on how long they can be held ahead of being removed from the UK for arriving illegally.

But peers voted to preserve the current protections in a series of amendments.

They also voted to ban the deportation of LGBT migrants to nations including Rwanda.

The proposed changes are among 11 defeats suffered by ministers on the Illegal Migration Bill in votes on Monday evening.

They can be overturned when the bill goes back to the House of Commons, where - unlike in the Lords - the government has a majority.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66089663

Anabobazina said:

stodge said:

Evening all

The Redfield & Wilton and Deltapoll numbers don't show a lot of movement from last week.

The England sub sample from R&W has Labour on 48%, Conservatives on 28%, Liberal Democrats on 12%, Greens on 6%, Reform on 5%.

The swing from Conservative to Labour in England is 16.5% while the swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 9.5%.

As for Deltapoll, the lead remains at 23 points - 15 points among men and 31 points among women. The Conservatives lead 43-30 among 65+ voters (this was a group they won 64-17 in 2019 so that's a 17% swing in that key demographic).

These subsamples aren’t weighted - ergo meaningless. It beggars belief that you routinely extract such long posts from such scant material.

Ignore that snobbery Stodge. So many of us love your posts.

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

THIS is genuinely shocking

The state of falling birth rates around the world


https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1674906307000762370

Macao is essentially saying Fuck it, we've had enough of this living and reproducing thing

If you've ever visited Macao you can have great sympathy with such intention.

Yes, it's crowded. But so vivacious! Or it was. Easy for me to say as a tourist

But the headlong collapse in birthrates around the world is pretty mind-blowing. Germany had half the births of France in one year, despite being much bigger in absolute population. And France itself saw a precipitous decline

Children of Men, indeed

Egypt 2.71 Total fertility rate, Israel 2.91, Mongolia 2.58, Kazakhstan 3.05, Uzbekistan 3.31 and Kyrgyzstan 2.88 buck the trend in that chart however

More interesting is Portugal. Virtually alone in Europe in seeing a surge in births. Why? I honestly have no firm idea

The stats for Eastern and, to an extent, Southern, Northern and Western Europe are appalling. We are literally disappearing

England is a rare exception with only a modest fall in births but that is surely due to unprecedented immigration

And yet it is still worse in East Asia, where they could all be gone in 2-3 generations

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

THIS is genuinely shocking

The state of falling birth rates around the world


https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1674906307000762370

Macao is essentially saying Fuck it, we've had enough of this living and reproducing thing

If you've ever visited Macao you can have great sympathy with such intention.

Yes, it's crowded. But so vivacious! Or it was. Easy for me to say as a tourist

But the headlong collapse in birthrates around the world is pretty mind-blowing. Germany had half the births of France in one year, despite being much bigger in absolute population. And France itself saw a precipitous decline

Children of Men, indeed

Egypt 2.71 Total fertility rate, Israel 2.91, Mongolia 2.58, Kazakhstan 3.05, Uzbekistan 3.31 and Kyrgyzstan 2.88 buck the trend in that chart however

More interesting is Portugal. Virtually alone in Europe in seeing a surge in births. Why? I honestly have no firm idea

The stats for Eastern and, to an extent, Southern, Northern and Western Europe are appalling. We are literally disappearing

England is a rare exception with only a modest fall in births but that is surely due to unprecedented immigration

And yet it is still worse in East Asia, where they could all be gone in 2-3 generations

Globally Africa and South Asia is where the population growth is, the rest of the world is heading for population decline. That also means more trying to emigrate from the former to the latter

Oooo matron!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-66091127

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

THIS is genuinely shocking

The state of falling birth rates around the world


https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1674906307000762370

Macao is essentially saying Fuck it, we've had enough of this living and reproducing thing

If you've ever visited Macao you can have great sympathy with such intention.

Yes, it's crowded. But so vivacious! Or it was. Easy for me to say as a tourist

But the headlong collapse in birthrates around the world is pretty mind-blowing. Germany had half the births of France in one year, despite being much bigger in absolute population. And France itself saw a precipitous decline

Children of Men, indeed

Egypt 2.71 Total fertility rate, Israel 2.91, Mongolia 2.58, Kazakhstan 3.05, Uzbekistan 3.31 and Kyrgyzstan 2.88 buck the trend in that chart however

No. Only Uzbekistan bucks the trend as it's the only one of those countries where the total fertility rate is increasing. Although a country like Egypt still has a TFR above 2, the trend is down.

MoonRabbit said:

Anabobazina said:

stodge said:

Evening all

The Redfield & Wilton and Deltapoll numbers don't show a lot of movement from last week.

The England sub sample from R&W has Labour on 48%, Conservatives on 28%, Liberal Democrats on 12%, Greens on 6%, Reform on 5%.

The swing from Conservative to Labour in England is 16.5% while the swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 9.5%.

As for Deltapoll, the lead remains at 23 points - 15 points among men and 31 points among women. The Conservatives lead 43-30 among 65+ voters (this was a group they won 64-17 in 2019 so that's a 17% swing in that key demographic).

These subsamples aren’t weighted - ergo meaningless. It beggars belief that you routinely extract such long posts from such scant material.

Ignore that snobbery Stodge. So many of us love your posts.

In my opinion there’s a bit too much getting excited about Margin of Error details in polling at the moment, the “i” were guilty of ramping their BMG today as worrying for Labour and “alarm bells in their HQ.” It’s not shown up on the wiki graph yet.



Yes. The Tories slipped back to February levels against backdrop of appearing to be arguing amongst themselves. Maybe some of the rip off Britain, Greedinflation is making voters cross with the government right now. But this weeks poll movement have been a bit MOE.

Anabobazina said:

MoonRabbit said:

Anabobazina said:

stodge said:

Evening all

The Redfield & Wilton and Deltapoll numbers don't show a lot of movement from last week.

The England sub sample from R&W has Labour on 48%, Conservatives on 28%, Liberal Democrats on 12%, Greens on 6%, Reform on 5%.

The swing from Conservative to Labour in England is 16.5% while the swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 9.5%.

As for Deltapoll, the lead remains at 23 points - 15 points among men and 31 points among women. The Conservatives lead 43-30 among 65+ voters (this was a group they won 64-17 in 2019 so that's a 17% swing in that key demographic).

These subsamples aren’t weighted - ergo meaningless. It beggars belief that you routinely extract such long posts from such scant material.

Ignore that snobbery Stodge. So many of us love your posts.

Simple logic, nothing to do with snobbery.

Some of us love subsamples as much as we love Mrs Dalloway in her favourite lighthouse.

Farooq said:

Leon said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Andy_JS said:

"Virginia Woolf classic joins growing list with ‘ludicrous’ trigger warnings
To the Lighthouse from 1927 now carries warning that the book ‘reflects the attitudes of its time’"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/01/virginia-woolf-to-the-lighthouse-trigger-warning-vintage/

How stupid would you have to be to read a book from 1927 and not expect it to reflect the attitudes of the time?

My personal view is that it should have a trigger warnings for being drivelling crap.

I really, REALLY detest Virginia Woolf. All the more so because I went through a phase in my thirties of convincing myself it could not be as bad as I thought and it must just be the particular books I was reading. So I tried reading as much as possible to prove myself wrong. I failed and that is many weeks of reading time I will never get back.

You are almost completely right. She is absolute shite in her modernist guise. To The Lighthouse etc. All I could think was: JUST GO TO THE FUCKING LIGHTHOUSE, BITCH

So dull

She is - in this medium - James Joyce but with 3% of his linguistic skill. And she knew this, deep down, hence her loathing and fear of him. She publicly reviled Ulysses even tho it was absolutely clear that Joyce had achieved, with majestic elan, what she had tentatively and falteringly nudged at

HOWEVER she is still is still a great writer. Try "Orlando" - she wrote it in a few brisk weeks yet it is brilliant and witty and very prescient about changing gender roles, it is her true masterpiece. She wrote it in six weeks and therefore, I think, dismissed it. She was wrong

She was also great on the subject of creativity and writing in general. "A Room of One's Own" is full of insights for the ages, especially for any artist

Her problem is that she is revered for rather dire modernist failures, yet her genuine spleandour goes unappreciated

I read Ulysses. All of it.

I want to find a strand of Joyce's hair, clone him, and punch his fucking lights out.

Have you tried Finnegan's Wake? Will make you appreciate Ulysses all the more!

Gotta confess, I draw the line at Finnegan's Wake. TBF so did Joyce himself. I believe he wrote a letter aliong the lines of "possibly I have gone too far". Well, yes, It's like Michelangelo went from sculpting La Pieta to obsessing about different ways he could present Christ's dying penis in multiple forms of coloured Travertine

Er, no

It is one of literature's huge Unknowns. Joyce was at the peak of his powers when he finished Ulysses. What might he have written if he had reined it in a bit - and thought about plot and character and readability, along with his own revolutionary genius? We lost ten years of one of the finest writers who ever lived, to a work that fails entirely, and is unreadable even for his fans

The best comparison is if Picasso stopped at Cubism, and then obsessively doodled eerily distorted manginas for the rest of his career. No Guernica, no The Weeping Woman, no La Reve, and so on

You might be right that Joyce's greatest moment was finishing Ulysses. He missed an even greater moment by not setting fire to the manuscript and pitching himself into the Liffey. But at least he did stop.

I don't think I've read a single modernist novel and not regretted it. It's like glimpsing madness and not even in a fun way. It's all bleak, shattered misery. It just seems like a literary form designed to depress and frustrate. Like Morrissey trying to explain Gödel's incompleteness theorem to the terminally ill.

You thought Ulysses was bleak, shattered misery?

It's actually quite funny.

Anabobazina said:

MoonRabbit said:

Anabobazina said:

stodge said:

Evening all

The Redfield & Wilton and Deltapoll numbers don't show a lot of movement from last week.

The England sub sample from R&W has Labour on 48%, Conservatives on 28%, Liberal Democrats on 12%, Greens on 6%, Reform on 5%.

The swing from Conservative to Labour in England is 16.5% while the swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 9.5%.

As for Deltapoll, the lead remains at 23 points - 15 points among men and 31 points among women. The Conservatives lead 43-30 among 65+ voters (this was a group they won 64-17 in 2019 so that's a 17% swing in that key demographic).

These subsamples aren’t weighted - ergo meaningless. It beggars belief that you routinely extract such long posts from such scant material.

Ignore that snobbery Stodge. So many of us love your posts.

Simple logic, nothing to do with snobbery.

Correct. What on earth has pointing out the fact that subsamples are useless information got to do with snobbery?

Australian PM Albanese hits back at Rishi

'@AlboMP
I’m proud of our men’s and women’s cricket teams, who have both won their opening two #Ashes matches against England.

Same old Aussies – always winning!

Australia is right behind
@ahealy77
,
@patcummins30
and their teams and look forward to welcoming them home victorious'
https://twitter.com/AlboMP/status/1676004264454541312?s=20

Farooq said:

MoonRabbit said:

Andy_JS said:

Anabobazina said:

MoonRabbit said:

Anabobazina said:

stodge said:

Evening all

The Redfield & Wilton and Deltapoll numbers don't show a lot of movement from last week.

The England sub sample from R&W has Labour on 48%, Conservatives on 28%, Liberal Democrats on 12%, Greens on 6%, Reform on 5%.

The swing from Conservative to Labour in England is 16.5% while the swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 9.5%.

As for Deltapoll, the lead remains at 23 points - 15 points among men and 31 points among women. The Conservatives lead 43-30 among 65+ voters (this was a group they won 64-17 in 2019 so that's a 17% swing in that key demographic).

These subsamples aren’t weighted - ergo meaningless. It beggars belief that you routinely extract such long posts from such scant material.

Ignore that snobbery Stodge. So many of us love your posts.

Simple logic, nothing to do with snobbery.

Correct. What on earth has pointing out the fact that subsamples are useless information got to do with snobbery?

Because they are not useless information. Therefore anyone who calls them useless information is a clear snob.

Welcome back. I hope you enjoyed your holiday. You're wrong.

The devil of every poll is in such detail as the sub samples.

new_subsample <- subset( full_sample , some_demographic_group == TRUE )

Or as an example, take the Ashcroft poll showing Boris home and hosed if there was Uxbridge recall. As TSE explained to us in a header (and Stodge in a long sub sample post) out of 50 young people they found eyebrow raising amount of this little sample who loved Boris, this possible sampling error was then extrapolated upwards so it looked out of kilter with what many of other polls thought of Tories in the subs of samples.

TSE, Stodge and myself are not wrong are we.

PS Went to the med for a month. Me and dear GF had Gozo villa to ourselves for a week, you should see our perfect all over tans. And then my daddy took me to Italy.

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Australian PM Albanese hits back at Rishi

'@AlboMP
I’m proud of our men’s and women’s cricket teams, who have both won their opening two #Ashes matches against England.

Same old Aussies – always winning!

Australia is right behind
@ahealy77
,
@patcummins30
and their teams and look forward to welcoming them home victorious'
https://twitter.com/AlboMP/status/1676004264454541312?s=20

WAR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY

Albanese is of course also a Labor PM too whose sister party is Starmer's UK Labour party.

Sunak is a conservative Tory whose sister parties are the Liberal and National Coalition in Australia

Andy_JS said:

Just seen this on Twitter. I agree completely.

"JWExTheSpa
@SpaJw
Starc made a stupid mistake so Duckett wasn’t out. Bairstow made a stupid mistake and so was out. The right decisions were made both times. The idea of the spirit of cricket is cringeworthy, sanctimonious, nostalgic, humbug. Respect the umpires. Nothing else is needed.
6:37 AM · Jul 3, 2023"

https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1675740409018843137

The thing is, Carey took the ball and then released back to the stumps in one motion. If you watch the replay with Bairstow on its own, it seems like Carey has waited till Bairstow has left his crease and then released the ball. There is a Foakes ODI dismissal against Ire where this very much WAS the case. But it simply was not with Carey. The ball was thrown into the stumps whilst 1. Barstow was in his ground. 2. Was in a continuous motion after he received the ball.
It really isn't a controversial dismissal at all, or well a lot less controversial than people are making it out to be tbh.

O/T

"A surf-lover’s guide to Cornwall
Founder of outdoor clothing label Finisterre Tom Kay on the best big swells and beach cafés"

https://www.ft.com/content/24dea835-d119-4dd5-b8eb-47d806c43925

Long-time lurker here. I was wondering today how English Tories might attempt to facilitate their preferred option out of the top two available in Scotland, which is to say an SNP bounce rather than a Labour landslide. And then I saw this photo... Never saw the Union Jack wrapped like that before. Must have taken some effort to make it look like the flag of St George with a little bit of decoration around the edge. Then another option for English Tories popped into mind: let Scotland go hang, and either push for English independence or else take such a big dump on Scotland that support for independence there rises to over 50% AND manifests as such in BritGE2024 somehow - meaning not necessarily with an SNP bounce but more likely with growing support among ScotLab voters and members. Just leak a phone call where Sunak makes a kilt or sporran joke or summat. Then bring in Penny and maybe someone who's posh and doesn't sound like JRM and they can say together that yes they bloody well are English and do think that England has its own interests... Aka selling Scotland down the river... And the Tories would never do that. Right?

MoonRabbit said:

Farooq said:

MoonRabbit said:

Andy_JS said:

Anabobazina said:

MoonRabbit said:

Anabobazina said:

stodge said:

Evening all

The Redfield & Wilton and Deltapoll numbers don't show a lot of movement from last week.

The England sub sample from R&W has Labour on 48%, Conservatives on 28%, Liberal Democrats on 12%, Greens on 6%, Reform on 5%.

The swing from Conservative to Labour in England is 16.5% while the swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 9.5%.

As for Deltapoll, the lead remains at 23 points - 15 points among men and 31 points among women. The Conservatives lead 43-30 among 65+ voters (this was a group they won 64-17 in 2019 so that's a 17% swing in that key demographic).

These subsamples aren’t weighted - ergo meaningless. It beggars belief that you routinely extract such long posts from such scant material.

Ignore that snobbery Stodge. So many of us love your posts.

Simple logic, nothing to do with snobbery.

Correct. What on earth has pointing out the fact that subsamples are useless information got to do with snobbery?

Because they are not useless information. Therefore anyone who calls them useless information is a clear snob.

Welcome back. I hope you enjoyed your holiday. You're wrong.

The devil of every poll is in such detail as the sub samples.

new_subsample - subset( full_sample , some_demographic_group == TRUE )

Or as an example, take the Ashcroft poll showing Boris home and hosed if there was Uxbridge recall. As TSE explained to us in a header (and Stodge in a long sub sample post) out of 50 young people they found eyebrow raising amount of this little sample who loved Boris, this possible sampling error was then extrapolated upwards so it looked out of kilter with what many of other polls thought of Tories in the subs of samples.

TSE, Stodge and myself are not wrong are we.

PS Went to the med for a month. Me and dear GF had Gozo villa to ourselves for a week, you should see our perfect all over tans. And then my daddy took me to Italy.

-"MoonRabbit, where have you been?"

-"Where haven't I been?"

Is this true?

https://mstdn.social/@YourAnonRiots/110652924710786409

Why twitter went a bit funny

https://wandering.shop/@TomWellborn@universeodon.com/110644824837642178

Peck said:

Long-time lurker here. I was wondering today how English Tories might attempt to facilitate their preferred option out of the top two available in Scotland, which is to say an SNP bounce rather than a Labour landslide. And then I saw this photo... Never saw the Union Jack wrapped like that before. Must have taken some effort to make it look like the flag of St George with a little bit of decoration around the edge. Then another option for English Tories popped into mind: let Scotland go hang, and either push for English independence or else take such a big dump on Scotland that support for independence there rises to over 50% AND manifests as such in BritGE2024 somehow - meaning not necessarily with an SNP bounce but more likely with growing support among ScotLab voters and members. Just leak a phone call where Sunak makes a kilt or sporran joke or summat. Then bring in Penny and maybe someone who's posh and doesn't sound like JRM and they can say together that yes they bloody well are English and do think that England has its own interests... Aka selling Scotland down the river... And the Tories would never do that. Right?

Hello, you may be on to something. Please post this on next (or subsequent) thread so PBers will see.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MoonRabbit said:

Farooq said:

MoonRabbit said:

Andy_JS said:

Anabobazina said:

MoonRabbit said:

Anabobazina said:

stodge said:

Evening all

The Redfield & Wilton and Deltapoll numbers don't show a lot of movement from last week.

The England sub sample from R&W has Labour on 48%, Conservatives on 28%, Liberal Democrats on 12%, Greens on 6%, Reform on 5%.

The swing from Conservative to Labour in England is 16.5% while the swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 9.5%.

As for Deltapoll, the lead remains at 23 points - 15 points among men and 31 points among women. The Conservatives lead 43-30 among 65+ voters (this was a group they won 64-17 in 2019 so that's a 17% swing in that key demographic).

These subsamples aren’t weighted - ergo meaningless. It beggars belief that you routinely extract such long posts from such scant material.

Ignore that snobbery Stodge. So many of us love your posts.

Simple logic, nothing to do with snobbery.

Correct. What on earth has pointing out the fact that subsamples are useless information got to do with snobbery?

Because they are not useless information. Therefore anyone who calls them useless information is a clear snob.

Welcome back. I hope you enjoyed your holiday. You're wrong.

The devil of every poll is in such detail as the sub samples.

new_subsample - subset( full_sample , some_demographic_group == TRUE )

Or as an example, take the Ashcroft poll showing Boris home and hosed if there was Uxbridge recall. As TSE explained to us in a header (and Stodge in a long sub sample post) out of 50 young people they found eyebrow raising amount of this little sample who loved Boris, this possible sampling error was then extrapolated upwards so it looked out of kilter with what many of other polls thought of Tories in the subs of samples.

TSE, Stodge and myself are not wrong are we.

PS Went to the med for a month. Me and dear GF had Gozo villa to ourselves for a week, you should see our perfect all over tans. And then my daddy took me to Italy.

-"MoonRabbit, where have you been?"

-"Where haven't I been?"

Malta, Italy, Malta, Yorkshire

I did look at PB a couple of times, but you were all pretty much behaving and didn’t need sorting out. 😎