It started in Threadneedle Street will not work for the government – politicalbetting.com

Looks like the series is gone but - as a Watford fan - I remain optimistic 😡😈

geoffw said:

Despite the operational independence granted to the BoE, the government does appoint the governor - for a fixed term of 8(!) years, renewable once - and the 4 external members of the MPC. It has, ridiculously, appointed doves instead of hawks to both. In its decision last week there were two members of the MPC who voted for no change in the interest rate.
So yes, the BoE and MPC are culpable not only for not meeting the 2% target, but not even trying to. However the Chancellor of the Exchequer is also culpable for making those appointments.

I disagree completely. It is far from clear that interest rates are going to work to fix this inflation. The idea that the economy is overheating because people have too much money sloshing around feels like a very London-centric one to me.

The real basis of this inflation is energy costs, which are woven through every price rise. No business knows how they're going to pay the bills. Wholesale energy prices may rise and fall, but energy costs to consumers and businesses are rising and rising. Can you explain how interest rate hikes are going to solve the energy crisis? Nobody has been able to come close so far.

There should be an emergency energy supply bill, with the aim of bringing new sources of energy on-stream in the coming months and years - incinerators and other such facilities need to be built *now* using special powers, not caught up in planning for years, VAT on domestic fuel should be suspended, and electricity should be decoupled from gas - it is sitting at artifically expensive levels at the moment due to the linkage. We also need long term investment in renewables like Tidal but they won't be of immediate help. That is what needs to be done to sort out inflation, not this ludicrous current policy of killing the patient to cure the disease.

Luckyguy1983 said:

geoffw said:

Despite the operational independence granted to the BoE, the government does appoint the governor - for a fixed term of 8(!) years, renewable once - and the 4 external members of the MPC. It has, ridiculously, appointed doves instead of hawks to both. In its decision last week there were two members of the MPC who voted for no change in the interest rate.
So yes, the BoE and MPC are culpable not only for not meeting the 2% target, but not even trying to. However the Chancellor of the Exchequer is also culpable for making those appointments.

I disagree completely. It is far from clear that interest rates are going to work to fix this inflation. The idea that the economy is overheating because people have too much money sloshing around feels like a very London-centric one to me.

The real basis of this inflation is energy costs, which are woven through every price rise. No business knows how they're going to pay the bills. Wholesale energy prices may rise and fall, but energy costs to consumers and businesses are rising and rising. Can you explain how interest rate hikes are going to solve the energy crisis? Nobody has been able to come close so far.

There should be an emergency energy supply bill, with the aim of bringing new sources of energy on-stream in the coming months and years - incinerators and other such facilities need to be built *now* using special powers, not caught up in planning for years, VAT on domestic fuel should be suspended, and electricity should be decoupled from gas - it is sitting at artifically expensive levels at the moment due to the linkage. We also need long term investment in renewables like Tidal but they won't be of immediate help. That is what needs to be done to sort out inflation, not this ludicrous current policy of killing the patient to cure the disease.

Another unrealistic Truss style wish list no doubt including fracking and coal mines

And how do you achieve ?

'electricity should be decoupled from gas'

Sandpit said:

So England win the toss, elect to field, and see the co….ts 339/5 at the end of the first day. Not the best bowling performance.

Root is going to have to carry both the batting AND the bowling. Australia had over 20% false shots too so it's no road.

It does say something that in a tightly controlled selection process the 2 best candidates CCHQ could come up with for the London mayoral race were an alleged groper and someone who wanted Trump to win the 2020 US election and thought Truss' budget was brilliant


A sample Tweet from the new favourite to be the Conservative Party's candidate for London Mayor.



https://twitter.com/ChairmanMoet/status/1674115740754903042

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

geoffw said:

Despite the operational independence granted to the BoE, the government does appoint the governor - for a fixed term of 8(!) years, renewable once - and the 4 external members of the MPC. It has, ridiculously, appointed doves instead of hawks to both. In its decision last week there were two members of the MPC who voted for no change in the interest rate.
So yes, the BoE and MPC are culpable not only for not meeting the 2% target, but not even trying to. However the Chancellor of the Exchequer is also culpable for making those appointments.

I disagree completely. It is far from clear that interest rates are going to work to fix this inflation. The idea that the economy is overheating because people have too much money sloshing around feels like a very London-centric one to me.

The real basis of this inflation is energy costs, which are woven through every price rise. No business knows how they're going to pay the bills. Wholesale energy prices may rise and fall, but energy costs to consumers and businesses are rising and rising. Can you explain how interest rate hikes are going to solve the energy crisis? Nobody has been able to come close so far.

There should be an emergency energy supply bill, with the aim of bringing new sources of energy on-stream in the coming months and years - incinerators and other such facilities need to be built *now* using special powers, not caught up in planning for years, VAT on domestic fuel should be suspended, and electricity should be decoupled from gas - it is sitting at artifically expensive levels at the moment due to the linkage. We also need long term investment in renewables like Tidal but they won't be of immediate help. That is what needs to be done to sort out inflation, not this ludicrous current policy of killing the patient to cure the disease.

Another unrealistic Truss style wish list no doubt including fracking and coal mines

And how do you achieve ?

'electricity should be decoupled from gas'

So unrealistic that it's actually a Sunak Government policy, touted by Grant Shapps in 2022, but like most sensible consumer-friendly policies, under this Government it hasn't happened:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1010304/government-to-lay-out-plans-to-decouple-gas-and-electricity-prices-1010304.html

Gardenwalker said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Gardenwalker said:

My internal Tory sources (I retain some) tell me that Korski has long had a “reputation”.

How he got this far, and won the endorsement of so many heavy hitters, is the real question.

We've had prime ministers with "reputations". America has had presidents with "reputations".

So you don’t think it’s a problem if the Major (or PM) is a sex pest?

OK…

Yes, that's exactly what I said. Or is it? Back in the real world...

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

eek said:

Once in a while Peston can actually do Maths

@Peston
Part of the financial squeeze on Thames Water stems from both the amount of debt on its balance sheet - some £14bn, generating a relatively high debt-to-equity or gearing ratio of 80% - and the proportion of that debt whose interest payments are linked to inflation. I've looked at the accounts of its financing company, Thames Water Utilities Finance plc. This lists 13 index-linked or inflation-proof bonds with a total value of £3.35bn, as of spring last year. Many of these bonds don't fall due for 10 or 20 years. This implies that every 1% increase in inflation is costing the company a painful £34m a year. It is possible - perhaps likely - that some of this inflation exposure is hedged. But on the basis of what's happened to UK inflation over the past 18 months, the additional annual interest cost on these bonds for the company could plausibly be £200m, a non-trivial sum for a company seeking to raise £1bn in additional equity.

£200m is a sizeable additional cost when income is fixed...

Although in general the regulator will allow income to rise with inflation, which is why issuing index-linked bonds made some sense. Of course, it only makes sense if you don't overdo it.

Let them go bust and then govt can pick it up at a discount. Shareholders can bear the risk and since many of them are foreign and do not vote it is a low risk strategy that gets assets back into UK ownership without buy-outs.

Well yes surely you just let the company go bust. Tough for bond and shareholders but there's always a risk with equities and commercial debt

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Time to nuke Edinburgh, actually nuke Scotland to be safe.

Like Indy, I hate spiders.

Stowaway African huntsman spider found in Edinburgh suitcase

The adventurous arachnid was discovered at a property in the Scottish capital after the resident returned from a work placement in Africa. Huntsman spiders use venom to immobilise their prey and can grow up to 30cm in leg span.

https://news.sky.com/story/stowaway-african-huntsman-spider-found-in-edinburgh-suitcase-12911116

How the hell do you get a massive spider in your suitcase by accident? A huntsman isn’t your regular house spider, it’s the size of a dinner plate!

This was a small one, only some 10cm across.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Gardenwalker said:

My internal Tory sources (I retain some) tell me that Korski has long had a “reputation”.

How he got this far, and won the endorsement of so many heavy hitters, is the real question.

Sick Korski

Being helicoptered in, was he?

Pulpstar said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

eek said:

Once in a while Peston can actually do Maths

@Peston
Part of the financial squeeze on Thames Water stems from both the amount of debt on its balance sheet - some £14bn, generating a relatively high debt-to-equity or gearing ratio of 80% - and the proportion of that debt whose interest payments are linked to inflation. I've looked at the accounts of its financing company, Thames Water Utilities Finance plc. This lists 13 index-linked or inflation-proof bonds with a total value of £3.35bn, as of spring last year. Many of these bonds don't fall due for 10 or 20 years. This implies that every 1% increase in inflation is costing the company a painful £34m a year. It is possible - perhaps likely - that some of this inflation exposure is hedged. But on the basis of what's happened to UK inflation over the past 18 months, the additional annual interest cost on these bonds for the company could plausibly be £200m, a non-trivial sum for a company seeking to raise £1bn in additional equity.

£200m is a sizeable additional cost when income is fixed...

Although in general the regulator will allow income to rise with inflation, which is why issuing index-linked bonds made some sense. Of course, it only makes sense if you don't overdo it.

Let them go bust and then govt can pick it up at a discount. Shareholders can bear the risk and since many of them are foreign and do not vote it is a low risk strategy that gets assets back into UK ownership without buy-outs.

Well yes surely you just let the company go bust. Tough for bond and shareholders but there's always a risk with equities and commercial debt

Government intervention needs to be restricted to the maintainance of service. If the underlying company is bust, then the shareholders are wiped out, and someone will pick up the pieces.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

geoffw said:

Despite the operational independence granted to the BoE, the government does appoint the governor - for a fixed term of 8(!) years, renewable once - and the 4 external members of the MPC. It has, ridiculously, appointed doves instead of hawks to both. In its decision last week there were two members of the MPC who voted for no change in the interest rate.
So yes, the BoE and MPC are culpable not only for not meeting the 2% target, but not even trying to. However the Chancellor of the Exchequer is also culpable for making those appointments.

I disagree completely. It is far from clear that interest rates are going to work to fix this inflation. The idea that the economy is overheating because people have too much money sloshing around feels like a very London-centric one to me.

The real basis of this inflation is energy costs, which are woven through every price rise. No business knows how they're going to pay the bills. Wholesale energy prices may rise and fall, but energy costs to consumers and businesses are rising and rising. Can you explain how interest rate hikes are going to solve the energy crisis? Nobody has been able to come close so far.

There should be an emergency energy supply bill, with the aim of bringing new sources of energy on-stream in the coming months and years - incinerators and other such facilities need to be built *now* using special powers, not caught up in planning for years, VAT on domestic fuel should be suspended, and electricity should be decoupled from gas - it is sitting at artifically expensive levels at the moment due to the linkage. We also need long term investment in renewables like Tidal but they won't be of immediate help. That is what needs to be done to sort out inflation, not this ludicrous current policy of killing the patient to cure the disease.

Another unrealistic Truss style wish list no doubt including fracking and coal mines

And how do you achieve ?

'electricity should be decoupled from gas'

So unrealistic that it's actually a Sunak Government policy, touted by Grant Shapps in 2022, but like most sensible consumer-friendly policies, under this Government it hasn't happened:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1010304/government-to-lay-out-plans-to-decouple-gas-and-electricity-prices-1010304.html

It is complex and involves agreements with the EU

Carnyx said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Time to nuke Edinburgh, actually nuke Scotland to be safe.

Like Indy, I hate spiders.

Stowaway African huntsman spider found in Edinburgh suitcase

The adventurous arachnid was discovered at a property in the Scottish capital after the resident returned from a work placement in Africa. Huntsman spiders use venom to immobilise their prey and can grow up to 30cm in leg span.

https://news.sky.com/story/stowaway-african-huntsman-spider-found-in-edinburgh-suitcase-12911116

How the hell do you get a massive spider in your suitcase by accident? A huntsman isn’t your regular house spider, it’s the size of a dinner plate!

This was a small one, only some 10cm across.

As someone who once zipped up a suitcase containing a cat, I would think its actually easy to contain a spider with realising it

Thames Water: wipe out the shareholders and take into government ownership.

Issue a bond - available to UK taxpayers only - to fund the long-term shit cleaning exercise.

Beibheirli_C said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

See Joe getting confused again

Putin is losing the war in Iraq’, says Biden in latest gaffe

Joe is so confused, US inflation is at 3%, growth is the highest in the G7, Russia is in steep decline, the debt ceiling crisis dissipated, etc etc.

The Joe is senile meme is frankly beneath you.
I urge you once more to stop reading Guido.

The PB Tories must always support the more right-wing candidate. They are merely lucky that, at the moment, the GOP option is not Trump or else they would have to publicly admit that they support him.

It is like Casino's posts urging us all to vote Tory because the alternative is too awful to contemplate (for them, at least. I am not remotely bothered)

Can I just shoot thwart down right here and now if it is directed at me

I abhor Trump and everything he stands for and have consistently said so

Joe Biden is prone to gaffes and the idea that if someone mentions another of his gaffes it is a de facto comment in support of Trump is frankly ridiculous

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic (sort-of): I think we may need a bit of a re-evaluation of the whole question of central bank independence and inflation-targeting through interest-rate changes. Although it has become received wisdom in most developed economies that that is the right way to do it, the received wisdom hasn't really been tested in anger until now, and (in the UK at least), the results are not very encouraging.

This may be partly because changes to the structure of the mortgage market mean that interest rate rises fall very heavily on that small subset of home owners whose fixed-rate deals happen to be coming to an end, but don't immediately affect other mortgage holders, or the increased proportion of people who own their house outright. The transmission mechanism of interest-rate changes is supposed to be to tweak aggregate demand, but this is a very crude way of doing it and causes a lot of pain to the smallish number of people it hits, as well as acting very slowly compared with how it did back in 1980s when nearly all mortgages were variable-rate. (I'm simplifying slightly here, because there's also an effect on companies, but you get the idea).

However, interest rate changes are not the only way of tweaking aggregate demand, you can also do it through taxation. Maybe we should go back to considering the two together, rather than leaving central banks with the responsibility to control inflation but with only one mechanism which is slow-acting and rather arbitrary in terms of who it affects.

Exactly so.

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

eek said:

Once in a while Peston can actually do Maths

@Peston
Part of the financial squeeze on Thames Water stems from both the amount of debt on its balance sheet - some £14bn, generating a relatively high debt-to-equity or gearing ratio of 80% - and the proportion of that debt whose interest payments are linked to inflation. I've looked at the accounts of its financing company, Thames Water Utilities Finance plc. This lists 13 index-linked or inflation-proof bonds with a total value of £3.35bn, as of spring last year. Many of these bonds don't fall due for 10 or 20 years. This implies that every 1% increase in inflation is costing the company a painful £34m a year. It is possible - perhaps likely - that some of this inflation exposure is hedged. But on the basis of what's happened to UK inflation over the past 18 months, the additional annual interest cost on these bonds for the company could plausibly be £200m, a non-trivial sum for a company seeking to raise £1bn in additional equity.

£200m is a sizeable additional cost when income is fixed...

Although in general the regulator will allow income to rise with inflation, which is why issuing index-linked bonds made some sense. Of course, it only makes sense if you don't overdo it.

Let them go bust and then govt can pick it up at a discount. Shareholders can bear the risk and since many of them are foreign and do not vote it is a low risk strategy that gets assets back into UK ownership without buy-outs.

Well yes surely you just let the company go bust. Tough for bond and shareholders but there's always a risk with equities and commercial debt

Government intervention needs to be restricted to the maintainance of service. If the underlying company is bust, then the shareholders are wiped out, and someone will pick up the pieces.

Yes. The Govt. It is clear these utilities should be put back in public ownership again.

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It does say something that in a tightly controlled selection process the 2 best candidates CCHQ could come up with for the London mayoral race were an alleged groper and someone who wanted Trump to win the 2020 US election and thought Truss' budget was brilliant


A sample Tweet from the new favourite to be the Conservative Party's candidate for London Mayor.



https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1674111641334546436/photo/1

The Tories have given up on London, and London has given up on them. It’s a truly pathetic showing.

Tonight's Standard front page:



Question to which the answer is yes.

Red Wall theory meant the Conservatives becoming the party of older people, retired homeowners, curtain twitchers and people who resent That There London.

To be clear, I'm not saying that they're all bad people, but a party that moulds itself in their image isn't going to get anywhere in our capital city.

Either something changes, or they lose their toeholds in Zone Six; I give it a decade. Every "Sold" sign in my street is 2 votes off the Conservative score and 2 onto Labour's.

Carnyx said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Gardenwalker said:

My internal Tory sources (I retain some) tell me that Korski has long had a “reputation”.

How he got this far, and won the endorsement of so many heavy hitters, is the real question.

Sick Korski

Being helicoptered in, was he?

Nah, it's just the candidates are being deployed by rotor.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

See Joe getting confused again

Putin is losing the war in Iraq’, says Biden in latest gaffe

Joe is so confused, US inflation is at 3%, growth is the highest in the G7, Russia is in steep decline, the debt ceiling crisis dissipated, etc etc.

The Joe is senile meme is frankly beneath you.
I urge you once more to stop reading Guido.

The PB Tories must always support the more right-wing candidate. They are merely lucky that, at the moment, the GOP option is not Trump or else they would have to publicly admit that they support him.

It is like Casino's posts urging us all to vote Tory because the alternative is too awful to contemplate (for them, at least. I am not remotely bothered)

Can I just shoot thwart down right here and now if it is directed at me

I abhor Trump and everything he stands for and have consistently said so

Joe Biden is prone to gaffes and the idea that if someone mentions another of his gaffes it is a de facto comment in support of Trump is frankly ridiculous

What else are we to assume?

In your mind, but the idea Joe Biden's gaffes should not be reported is absurd and anyway it is being reported not only by Sky but other news media because in case you hadn't noticed journalists like these 'gotcha' moments

Sure, but do you take all your cues from journalists?
If they jumped off the Auckland Harbour Bridge, would you follow suit?

By repeating this stuff, you play into the right wing populist idea that Biden is too senile for the role.

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

See Joe getting confused again

Putin is losing the war in Iraq’, says Biden in latest gaffe

Joe is so confused, US inflation is at 3%, growth is the highest in the G7, Russia is in steep decline, the debt ceiling crisis dissipated, etc etc.

The Joe is senile meme is frankly beneath you.
I urge you once more to stop reading Guido.

The PB Tories must always support the more right-wing candidate. They are merely lucky that, at the moment, the GOP option is not Trump or else they would have to publicly admit that they support him.

It is like Casino's posts urging us all to vote Tory because the alternative is too awful to contemplate (for them, at least. I am not remotely bothered)

Can I just shoot thwart down right here and now if it is directed at me

I abhor Trump and everything he stands for and have consistently said so

Joe Biden is prone to gaffes and the idea that if someone mentions another of his gaffes it is a de facto comment in support of Trump is frankly ridiculous

What else are we to assume?

In your mind, but the idea Joe Biden's gaffes should not be reported is absurd and anyway it is being reported not only by Sky but other news media because in case you hadn't noticed journalists like these 'gotcha' moments

Sure, but do you take all your cues from journalists?
If they jumped off the Auckland Harbour Bridge, would you follow suit?

By repeating this stuff, you play into the right wing populist idea that Biden is too senile for the role.

To be fair, plenty of Democrats have the same concerns.

Gardenwalker said:

Thames Water: wipe out the shareholders and take into government ownership.

Issue a bond - available to UK taxpayers only - to fund the long-term shit cleaning exercise.

'Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System' are their biggest shareholder. I doubt they are a greatly mercenary bunch. However equity holders are likely to be the most at risk anyway, and that's entirely right.

Casino_Royale said:

Gardenwalker said:

No, let’s not reverse Central Bank independence.
If the results are not impressive now, they sure as hell weren’t before-hand.

Two points:

1. I agree that the transmission of interest rates into the homebuying economy doesn’t work as well anymore. But that’s a fix to investigate, not a wholesale surrender of independence.

2. The government has a role too, and not just in keeping public sector wages down. The government is stoking inflation with the triple lock, and refuses to look at supply side (market) reform. Evidence is growing that at least some of this inflation is price gouging. Too many sectors in the UK run as effective oligopolies.

Good challenge. I think it should be reviewed though.

The current policy is going to totally whack people in their 30s and 40s with families and leave pensioners entirely unscathed.

The Tories can't seem to stop themselves from doing this. And they sort of have to keep doing it now they've boxed themselves into a corner with only this group left willing to vote for them.

I am in the same boat, essentially.
I have a mortgage - two, actually - back in the UK.
It will affect my financial decisions here in the US, and ironically may keep me here longer as it is easier to cover with a dollar income.

I agree it’s v unfair.
I just don’t agree with throwing the baby out with the bath water.

Sandpit said:

So England win the toss, elect to field, and see the co….ts 339/5 at the end of the first day. Not the best bowling performance.

My dream innings is:
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt

English batsman 6 no

England win by 6 runs

Fishing said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

See Joe getting confused again

Putin is losing the war in Iraq’, says Biden in latest gaffe

Joe is so confused, US inflation is at 3%, growth is the highest in the G7, Russia is in steep decline, the debt ceiling crisis dissipated, etc etc.

The Joe is senile meme is frankly beneath you.
I urge you once more to stop reading Guido.

US inflation is at 3% because his predecessors made big bets on fracking and implemented other sensible micro policies, growth is the highest in the G7 because the government is running completely unsustainable budget deficits, Russia is in steep decline because it spectacularly shot itself in both feet and the stomach, and his spending caused the debt ceiling crisis which he took the financial system to the brink to resolve. I notice you don't mention the Afghan disaster.

As I've said on here before, he outlived his usefulness the day he got rid of Trump. He should have appointed a decent VP and relinquished the job to him the next day. Instead of which, he's so obviously passed it that there's a real possibility he might lose to the Donald next year.

I didn’t mention the Afghan disaster. Agree on that.
I also didn’t mention the modest reindustrialisation we are seeing as the result of the Inflation Reduction Act etc.

Administratively, he seems very successful.

Stuartinromford said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It does say something that in a tightly controlled selection process the 2 best candidates CCHQ could come up with for the London mayoral race were an alleged groper and someone who wanted Trump to win the 2020 US election and thought Truss' budget was brilliant


A sample Tweet from the new favourite to be the Conservative Party's candidate for London Mayor.



https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1674111641334546436/photo/1

The Tories have given up on London, and London has given up on them. It’s a truly pathetic showing.

Tonight's Standard front page:



Question to which the answer is yes.

Red Wall theory meant the Conservatives becoming the party of older people, retired homeowners, curtain twitchers and people who resent That There London.

To be clear, I'm not saying that they're all bad people, but a party that moulds itself in their image isn't going to get anywhere in our capital city.

Either something changes, or they lose their toeholds in Zone Six; I give it a decade. Every "Sold" sign in my street is 2 votes off the Conservative score and 2 onto Labour's.

And yet Shaun Bailey still managed 45% on the runoff. If the Tories have given up on London (and the quality of their candidates is sub-Brian Rose, suggesting they have), they are stupid to have done so.

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It does say something that in a tightly controlled selection process the 2 best candidates CCHQ could come up with for the London mayoral race were an alleged groper and someone who wanted Trump to win the 2020 US election and thought Truss' budget was brilliant


A sample Tweet from the new favourite to be the Conservative Party's candidate for London Mayor.



https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1674111641334546436/photo/1

I like her already.

Thought you would. Meanwhile, in civilisation ….

Fairliered said:

Sandpit said:

So England win the toss, elect to field, and see the co….ts 339/5 at the end of the first day. Not the best bowling performance.

My dream innings is:
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt
Aussie 0 retired hurt

English batsman 6 no

England win by 6 runs

England Innings extras 1 (1nb) 0.0 overs

England win by 10 wickets.

(There was actually a schoolboy match where all of one side were out for 0, and the reply started and finished with a no-ball.)

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2023/jun/28/boston-manor-house-in-west-london-readies-for-public-opening

IMpressive place of which I had never heard, in W. London.

Boston Manor is a tube station on the Piccadilly Line on the way to Heathrow.

Probably best to see it soon before it’s burnt - the Witchfinders are on the case.

Luckyguy1983 said:

...

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

See Joe getting confused again

Putin is losing the war in Iraq’, says Biden in latest gaffe

Joe is so confused, US inflation is at 3%, growth is the highest in the G7, Russia is in steep decline, the debt ceiling crisis dissipated, etc etc.

The Joe is senile meme is frankly beneath you.
I urge you once more to stop reading Guido.

The PB Tories must always support the more right-wing candidate. They are merely lucky that, at the moment, the GOP option is not Trump or else they would have to publicly admit that they support him.

It is like Casino's posts urging us all to vote Tory because the alternative is too awful to contemplate (for them, at least. I am not remotely bothered)

Can I just shoot thwart down right here and now if it is directed at me

I abhor Trump and everything he stands for and have consistently said so

Joe Biden is prone to gaffes and the idea that if someone mentions another of his gaffes it is a de facto comment in support of Trump is frankly ridiculous

What else are we to assume?

In your mind, but the idea Joe Biden's gaffes should not be reported is absurd and anyway it is being reported not only by Sky but other news media because in case you hadn't noticed journalists like these 'gotcha' moments

Sure, but do you take all your cues from journalists?
If they jumped off the Auckland Harbour Bridge, would you follow suit?

By repeating this stuff, you play into the right wing populist idea that Biden is too senile for the role.

Do you expect some sort of polite omerta to be applied to Joe Biden's dribblings? If everyone ignores it, will it help him win another term and see it out?

No I don’t expect omertà.
I just think it’s trivia.
Wake me up if he starts talking to lampposts or something.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

NickyBreakspear said:

NickyBreakspear said:

Have we discussed the final new parliamentary boundaries for Westminster which have been released today?

So far I have noticed some changes from the revised boundaries published at the end of last year in Wales around Swansea - there are some in North Wales. as well.

https://www.bcereviews.org.uk/
https://www.bcs2023review.com/
https://bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
https://www.boundarycommission.org.uk/2023-review-parliamentary-constituencies

Phew! I'm still in Ilford North

That’s only because you can’t afford to drive anywhere in your Mum’s Volvo, FPT.

Gardenwalker said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

...

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

See Joe getting confused again

Putin is losing the war in Iraq’, says Biden in latest gaffe

Joe is so confused, US inflation is at 3%, growth is the highest in the G7, Russia is in steep decline, the debt ceiling crisis dissipated, etc etc.

The Joe is senile meme is frankly beneath you.
I urge you once more to stop reading Guido.

The PB Tories must always support the more right-wing candidate. They are merely lucky that, at the moment, the GOP option is not Trump or else they would have to publicly admit that they support him.

It is like Casino's posts urging us all to vote Tory because the alternative is too awful to contemplate (for them, at least. I am not remotely bothered)

Can I just shoot thwart down right here and now if it is directed at me

I abhor Trump and everything he stands for and have consistently said so

Joe Biden is prone to gaffes and the idea that if someone mentions another of his gaffes it is a de facto comment in support of Trump is frankly ridiculous

What else are we to assume?

In your mind, but the idea Joe Biden's gaffes should not be reported is absurd and anyway it is being reported not only by Sky but other news media because in case you hadn't noticed journalists like these 'gotcha' moments

Sure, but do you take all your cues from journalists?
If they jumped off the Auckland Harbour Bridge, would you follow suit?

By repeating this stuff, you play into the right wing populist idea that Biden is too senile for the role.

Do you expect some sort of polite omerta to be applied to Joe Biden's dribblings? If everyone ignores it, will it help him win another term and see it out?

No I don’t expect omertà.
I just think it’s trivia.
Wake me up if he starts talking to lampposts or something.

Pagan2 said:

Carnyx said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Time to nuke Edinburgh, actually nuke Scotland to be safe.

Like Indy, I hate spiders.

Stowaway African huntsman spider found in Edinburgh suitcase

The adventurous arachnid was discovered at a property in the Scottish capital after the resident returned from a work placement in Africa. Huntsman spiders use venom to immobilise their prey and can grow up to 30cm in leg span.

https://news.sky.com/story/stowaway-african-huntsman-spider-found-in-edinburgh-suitcase-12911116

How the hell do you get a massive spider in your suitcase by accident? A huntsman isn’t your regular house spider, it’s the size of a dinner plate!

This was a small one, only some 10cm across.

As someone who once zipped up a suitcase containing a cat, I would think its actually easy to contain a spider with realising it

"Did you pack this bag yourself, sir" 😀

williamglenn said:

Gardenwalker said:

No, let’s not reverse Central Bank independence.
If the results are not impressive now, they sure as hell weren’t before-hand.

Two points:

1. I agree that the transmission of interest rates into the homebuying economy doesn’t work as well anymore. But that’s a fix to investigate, not a wholesale surrender of independence.

2. The government has a role too, and not just in keeping public sector wages down. The government is stoking inflation with the triple lock, and refuses to look at supply side (market) reform. Evidence is growing that at least some of this inflation is price gouging. Too many sectors in the UK run as effective oligopolies.

Central bank independence in the way it was implemented in the UK is one of the worst examples of post-democratic hubris. You can't depoliticise something as fundamental as monetary policy without it undermining democratic government.

It’s pretty much the global standard (central bank independence).

It’s open for debate but the previous regime was shit.

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic (sort-of): I think we may need a bit of a re-evaluation of the whole question of central bank independence and inflation-targeting through interest-rate changes. Although it has become received wisdom in most developed economies that that is the right way to do it, the received wisdom hasn't really been tested in anger until now, and (in the UK at least), the results are not very encouraging.

This may be partly because changes to the structure of the mortgage market mean that interest rate rises fall very heavily on that small subset of home owners whose fixed-rate deals happen to be coming to an end, but don't immediately affect other mortgage holders, or the increased proportion of people who own their house outright. The transmission mechanism of interest-rate changes is supposed to be to tweak aggregate demand, but this is a very crude way of doing it and causes a lot of pain to the smallish number of people it hits, as well as acting very slowly compared with how it did back in 1980s when nearly all mortgages were variable-rate. (I'm simplifying slightly here, because there's also an effect on companies, but you get the idea).

However, interest rate changes are not the only way of tweaking aggregate demand, you can also do it through taxation. Maybe we should go back to considering the two together, rather than leaving central banks with the responsibility to control inflation but with only one mechanism which is slow-acting and rather arbitrary in terms of who it affects.

If your mortgage is fixed, someone is still paying the price of higher interest rates: depositors and/or bank shareholders. And the impact on businesses seems to work pretty well in forcing frothier sectors like tech to pull heavily back on speculative investments that were only justifiable at zero per cent.

Not sure a temporary tax hike of a few per cent would do the same, even if Sunak would conceivably do it.

Ghedebrav said:

Stuartinromford said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It does say something that in a tightly controlled selection process the 2 best candidates CCHQ could come up with for the London mayoral race were an alleged groper and someone who wanted Trump to win the 2020 US election and thought Truss' budget was brilliant


A sample Tweet from the new favourite to be the Conservative Party's candidate for London Mayor.



https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1674111641334546436/photo/1

The Tories have given up on London, and London has given up on them. It’s a truly pathetic showing.

Tonight's Standard front page:



Question to which the answer is yes.

Red Wall theory meant the Conservatives becoming the party of older people, retired homeowners, curtain twitchers and people who resent That There London.

To be clear, I'm not saying that they're all bad people, but a party that moulds itself in their image isn't going to get anywhere in our capital city.

Either something changes, or they lose their toeholds in Zone Six; I give it a decade. Every "Sold" sign in my street is 2 votes off the Conservative score and 2 onto Labour's.

And yet Shaun Bailey still managed 45% on the runoff. If the Tories have given up on London (and the quality of their candidates is sub-Brian Rose, suggesting they have), they are stupid to have done so.

That was in May 2021, peak Vaccine Hero Boris, though. It needed a strong candidate (Boris) against a distinctly shopworn one (old Ken) and a favourable national picture for the wins in 2008 and 2012 to happen. And London and the Conservatives have moved apart since then.

The Conservatives ought to be at least competitive in London, for the health of democracy if nothing else. But that requires compromises that they're currently prepared to make.

Gardenwalker said:

williamglenn said:

Gardenwalker said:

No, let’s not reverse Central Bank independence.
If the results are not impressive now, they sure as hell weren’t before-hand.

Two points:

1. I agree that the transmission of interest rates into the homebuying economy doesn’t work as well anymore. But that’s a fix to investigate, not a wholesale surrender of independence.

2. The government has a role too, and not just in keeping public sector wages down. The government is stoking inflation with the triple lock, and refuses to look at supply side (market) reform. Evidence is growing that at least some of this inflation is price gouging. Too many sectors in the UK run as effective oligopolies.

Central bank independence in the way it was implemented in the UK is one of the worst examples of post-democratic hubris. You can't depoliticise something as fundamental as monetary policy without it undermining democratic government.

It’s pretty much the global standard (central bank independence).

It’s open for debate but the previous regime was shit.

The current regime is also shit.

It'd help if the Bank took a balanced overview of inflation, but by obsessing over just CPI and not considering what they mistakenly class as "assets" the economy has become truly unbalanced and any correction is going to be very painful - and is very necessary too.

Balanced overviews of the economy is what the Chancellor is supposed to have.

Fairliered said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

eek said:

Once in a while Peston can actually do Maths

@Peston
Part of the financial squeeze on Thames Water stems from both the amount of debt on its balance sheet - some £14bn, generating a relatively high debt-to-equity or gearing ratio of 80% - and the proportion of that debt whose interest payments are linked to inflation. I've looked at the accounts of its financing company, Thames Water Utilities Finance plc. This lists 13 index-linked or inflation-proof bonds with a total value of £3.35bn, as of spring last year. Many of these bonds don't fall due for 10 or 20 years. This implies that every 1% increase in inflation is costing the company a painful £34m a year. It is possible - perhaps likely - that some of this inflation exposure is hedged. But on the basis of what's happened to UK inflation over the past 18 months, the additional annual interest cost on these bonds for the company could plausibly be £200m, a non-trivial sum for a company seeking to raise £1bn in additional equity.

£200m is a sizeable additional cost when income is fixed...

Although in general the regulator will allow income to rise with inflation, which is why issuing index-linked bonds made some sense. Of course, it only makes sense if you don't overdo it.

Let them go bust and then govt can pick it up at a discount. Shareholders can bear the risk and since many of them are foreign and do not vote it is a low risk strategy that gets assets back into UK ownership without buy-outs.

Warning to foreign shareholders. Your investment can be fucked, instead of providing guaranteed dividends at the expense of your “customers “.

That works for me...

Fairliered said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

eek said:

Once in a while Peston can actually do Maths

@Peston
Part of the financial squeeze on Thames Water stems from both the amount of debt on its balance sheet - some £14bn, generating a relatively high debt-to-equity or gearing ratio of 80% - and the proportion of that debt whose interest payments are linked to inflation. I've looked at the accounts of its financing company, Thames Water Utilities Finance plc. This lists 13 index-linked or inflation-proof bonds with a total value of £3.35bn, as of spring last year. Many of these bonds don't fall due for 10 or 20 years. This implies that every 1% increase in inflation is costing the company a painful £34m a year. It is possible - perhaps likely - that some of this inflation exposure is hedged. But on the basis of what's happened to UK inflation over the past 18 months, the additional annual interest cost on these bonds for the company could plausibly be £200m, a non-trivial sum for a company seeking to raise £1bn in additional equity.

£200m is a sizeable additional cost when income is fixed...

Although in general the regulator will allow income to rise with inflation, which is why issuing index-linked bonds made some sense. Of course, it only makes sense if you don't overdo it.

Let them go bust and then govt can pick it up at a discount. Shareholders can bear the risk and since many of them are foreign and do not vote it is a low risk strategy that gets assets back into UK ownership without buy-outs.

Warning to foreign shareholders. Your investment can be fucked, instead of providing guaranteed dividends at the expense of your “customers “.

All investments can go down as well as up.

People need to know that.

williamglenn said:

Gardenwalker said:

No, let’s not reverse Central Bank independence.
If the results are not impressive now, they sure as hell weren’t before-hand.

Two points:

1. I agree that the transmission of interest rates into the homebuying economy doesn’t work as well anymore. But that’s a fix to investigate, not a wholesale surrender of independence.

2. The government has a role too, and not just in keeping public sector wages down. The government is stoking inflation with the triple lock, and refuses to look at supply side (market) reform. Evidence is growing that at least some of this inflation is price gouging. Too many sectors in the UK run as effective oligopolies.

Central bank independence in the way it was implemented in the UK is one of the worst examples of post-democratic hubris. You can't depoliticise something as fundamental as monetary policy without it undermining democratic government.

Tax is even more fundamental but HMRC is operationally independent. They each get a mission, do it without interference, and report to government on how they are doing it.

EPG said:

williamglenn said:

Gardenwalker said:

No, let’s not reverse Central Bank independence.
If the results are not impressive now, they sure as hell weren’t before-hand.

Two points:

1. I agree that the transmission of interest rates into the homebuying economy doesn’t work as well anymore. But that’s a fix to investigate, not a wholesale surrender of independence.

2. The government has a role too, and not just in keeping public sector wages down. The government is stoking inflation with the triple lock, and refuses to look at supply side (market) reform. Evidence is growing that at least some of this inflation is price gouging. Too many sectors in the UK run as effective oligopolies.

Central bank independence in the way it was implemented in the UK is one of the worst examples of post-democratic hubris. You can't depoliticise something as fundamental as monetary policy without it undermining democratic government.

Tax is even more fundamental but HMRC is operationally independent. They each get a mission, do it without interference, and report to government on how they are doing it.

False equivalence.

HMRC don't determine tax rates, the Chancellor does.

EPG said:

williamglenn said:

Gardenwalker said:

No, let’s not reverse Central Bank independence.
If the results are not impressive now, they sure as hell weren’t before-hand.

Two points:

1. I agree that the transmission of interest rates into the homebuying economy doesn’t work as well anymore. But that’s a fix to investigate, not a wholesale surrender of independence.

2. The government has a role too, and not just in keeping public sector wages down. The government is stoking inflation with the triple lock, and refuses to look at supply side (market) reform. Evidence is growing that at least some of this inflation is price gouging. Too many sectors in the UK run as effective oligopolies.

Central bank independence in the way it was implemented in the UK is one of the worst examples of post-democratic hubris. You can't depoliticise something as fundamental as monetary policy without it undermining democratic government.

Tax is even more fundamental but HMRC is operationally independent. They each get a mission, do it without interference, and report to government on how they are doing it.

That might be a valid comparison if HMRC set its own tax rates.

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

The Aussies are going to tear us a new one, aren't they?

Going to?

I suspect this is the last series for Anderson, and possibly also Stokes.

They could at least have presented some green tops for Anderson's last hurrah.

EPG said:

williamglenn said:

EPG said:

williamglenn said:

Gardenwalker said:

No, let’s not reverse Central Bank independence.
If the results are not impressive now, they sure as hell weren’t before-hand.

Two points:

1. I agree that the transmission of interest rates into the homebuying economy doesn’t work as well anymore. But that’s a fix to investigate, not a wholesale surrender of independence.

2. The government has a role too, and not just in keeping public sector wages down. The government is stoking inflation with the triple lock, and refuses to look at supply side (market) reform. Evidence is growing that at least some of this inflation is price gouging. Too many sectors in the UK run as effective oligopolies.

Central bank independence in the way it was implemented in the UK is one of the worst examples of post-democratic hubris. You can't depoliticise something as fundamental as monetary policy without it undermining democratic government.

Tax is even more fundamental but HMRC is operationally independent. They each get a mission, do it without interference, and report to government on how they are doing it.

That might be a valid comparison if HMRC set its own tax rates.

The policy is the tax rate and the inflation target, each set by politicians. The operational details are up to the agency, and for the BoE it could be interest rates or other things. But the interest rate is not the aim of monetary policy; prices are; rates are fundamentally an operational tool.

Not equivalent. The Chancellor chooses the rate in one but not the other.

Equivalence would be if the Chancellor told HMRC how much money he wanted them to raise in taxes (inflation target) and then HMRC independently changed tax rates without a Budget and without recourse to Parliament.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Absolutely amazing scenes regarding the local take on the boundary review.



https://twitter.com/JackTindale/status/1674044012699820032

Like button used in the absence of the WTF button.