Well fair play to this evening's new poster. No attempt at deception or creating a false persona. Just straight in there as a mouthpiece of the Kremlin.
Live feed of the final battle of the Russian Civil War! After 12 hours of intense standing around and taking pictures, PMC Wagner are returning to the frontline to fight for Mother Russia. Not gonna say I told you so. However, I told you so.
I will be off this gorum soon anyway. A lot of celebrating to be donr tonight. People in the west are stupider than i thought.
What's a gorum? Is this some Russian word I don't know meaning 'shift?'
A “gorum” is a Russian thing where you, trying to think of the best transliteration, you go to keep you distracted whilst your mum and sister are entertaining men for money to pay for your internet connection. It’s tragic but that’s Russia for you.
Live feed of the final battle of the Russian Civil War! After 12 hours of intense standing around and taking pictures, PMC Wagner are returning to the frontline to fight for Mother Russia. Not gonna say I told you so. However, I told you so.
"Today at 9 pm Lukashenka and Putin spoke on the phone again, according to Lukashenka's press service. Putin thanked Lukashenka for the work done:“The President of Belarus informed the President of Russia in detail about the results of negotiations with the leadership of PMC Wagner. The President of Russia supported and thanked his Belarusian colleague for the work done,” the press service of Lukashenko said."
"Lukashenko informed Putin who was really in charge and what was going on, and Putin had the passive and receptory role", that sounds a bit like, in typical post-Soviet Kremlinologist-speak.
NYT - Wagner fighters patrolling Rostov’s center saluted residents and appeared to be packing up their belongings, according to social media footage verified by the New York Times that was posted after their leader's announcement that the fighters would be returning to their training camps,
I will be off this gorum soon anyway. A lot of celebrating to be donr tonight. People in the west are stupider than i thought.
And yet you still waste your time on here. Time after time after time. You post your laughable shit, we ban you. You come back and post more laughable shit.
The number of people you have turned? Zero.
Lol you think i think brainwashed people will suddenly agree with me. You have been brainwashed by your govts since the 60s
Today, the world saw that the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete absence of any predictability.
First, the world should not be afraid. We know what protects us. Our unity.
Ukraine will definitely be able to protect Europe from any Russian forces, and it doesn't matter who commands them. We will protect. The security of Europe's eastern flank depends only on our defense.
Ukrainian soldiers, Ukrainian guns, Ukrainian tanks, Ukrainian missiles are all that protect Europe from such marches as we see today on Russian territory. And when we ask to give us the F-16 fighters or the ATACMS, we're enhancing our common defense. Real defense.
Second, everything must be real. It's time for everyone in the world to frankly say that all of Russia's criminal actions against Ukraine were and are unprovoked. And we all have to focus exclusively on our common security priorities. NATO is not just a word or a set of formal promises. These are reliable guarantees for everyone that peace won't be destroyed. Without Ukraine, such guarantees are worthless. Already in July at the summit in Vilnius, it is a historic chance for real decisions without looking back at Russia. Any nation that borders Russia supports this.
What will we, Ukrainians, do?
We will defend our country. We will defend our freedom. We will not be silent and we will not be inactive. We know how to win – and it will happen. Our victory in this war.
And what will you, Russians, do?
The longer your troops stay on Ukrainian land, the more devastation they will bring to Russia. The longer this person is in the Kremlin, the more disasters there will be.
Drinks are gonna be good tonight. We can have a good laugh at the stupidity of the west.
Drink up tovarisch. You think we are stupid, we know you are stupid, we're all in the same place. Putin having to have that fat fuck from Belarus save his bacon after he fled Moskva. Bit pathetic isn't he.
Today, the world saw that the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete absence of any predictability.
First, the world should not be afraid. We know what protects us. Our unity.
Ukraine will definitely be able to protect Europe from any Russian forces, and it doesn't matter who commands them. We will protect. The security of Europe's eastern flank depends only on our defense.
Ukrainian soldiers, Ukrainian guns, Ukrainian tanks, Ukrainian missiles are all that protect Europe from such marches as we see today on Russian territory. And when we ask to give us the F-16 fighters or the ATACMS, we're enhancing our common defense. Real defense.
Second, everything must be real. It's time for everyone in the world to frankly say that all of Russia's criminal actions against Ukraine were and are unprovoked. And we all have to focus exclusively on our common security priorities. NATO is not just a word or a set of formal promises. These are reliable guarantees for everyone that peace won't be destroyed. Without Ukraine, such guarantees are worthless. Already in July at the summit in Vilnius, it is a historic chance for real decisions without looking back at Russia. Any nation that borders Russia supports this.
What will we, Ukrainians, do?
We will defend our country. We will defend our freedom. We will not be silent and we will not be inactive. We know how to win – and it will happen. Our victory in this war.
And what will you, Russians, do?
The longer your troops stay on Ukrainian land, the more devastation they will bring to Russia. The longer this person is in the Kremlin, the more disasters there will be.
Some thoughts on this whole thing before we go back to Brexit and Trans issues.
1. Famous last words but it seems like we are in the end game of the war in Ukraine. Reading between the lines, it feels like the Ukrainian offensive is picking u some momentum. More to the point though, the Russian forces are irrevocably divided amongst themselves - Wagnerites vs regular army /Kadryovivites. Such a split will mean increasingly distrust / lack of co-operation and therefore less effectiveness. Moreover - and this may be the crucial part - the destruction of a number of helicopters by the Wagnerites is unlikely to be taken well by Russian air support units who might start "accidentally" firing on the Wagnerites.
2. Putin is undoubtedly weakened and is probably on his end game too but bear in mind that, in the days of Communism, when a Supreme Leader left, often it was a Cabal that took over with a single leader taking time to establish themselves (it happened post-Lenin, post-Stalin and post-Khrushchev). If Putin goes, that is the most likely direction. The axis that seems most likely as of now would be Shiogu - Gerasimov - Lavrov, which I think the West would live with. BTW, Shiogu is considered to be non-Russian so it is very unlikely he would be the next Putin.
3. Lukashenko is the one to watch here. As mentioned before, he has no power base in Russia but he has, in the past, seen himself as a potential President of Russia (in combo with Belarus). One scenario, and following 2, is that he is installed as Putin's successor because he has no power base and with the power wielded behind the scenes. If that was combined with a Belarus - Russia merger, that would be....interesting.
After the death of Lenin it was 1982 before a full Russian next led the Soviet Union. And even then, it was a brief interregnum before another Russo-Ukrainian took over.
Mmmm, that is not true. Khrushchev was Russian -he was born in now what is Russia and his parents were Russian peasants. Brezhnev was born in Ukraine but considered himself Russian although there were questions whether he was Ukrainian or Russian (and, as we see, from the Russian side, they consider the two the same).
In any event, having a non-Russian was fine under Communism given the USSR's structure and declared 'Brotherhood of Man' / unified peoples' schlick (in fact, for the Communists, it was a plus because it showed the minority nations they could have real power and were treated as equals). That is not the case in Russia which is very nationalistic.
Mmmm, that is true. Do not trust Wikipedia. The national boundaries were rather more fluid in the days of the Russian Empire.
Brezhnev did sometimes pose as a Russian - but then, so did his idol Stalin.
I will be off this gorum soon anyway. A lot of celebrating to be donr tonight. People in the west are stupider than i thought.
And yet you still waste your time on here. Time after time after time. You post your laughable shit, we ban you. You come back and post more laughable shit.
The number of people you have turned? Zero.
Lol you think i think brainwashed people will suddenly agree with me. You have been brainwashed by your govts since the 60s
NYT - Wagner fighters patrolling Rostov’s center saluted residents and appeared to be packing up their belongings, according to social media footage verified by the New York Times that was posted after their leader's announcement that the fighters would be returning to their training camps,
Go back to your training camps and prepare for government!
Today, the world saw that the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete absence of any predictability.
First, the world should not be afraid. We know what protects us. Our unity.
Ukraine will definitely be able to protect Europe from any Russian forces, and it doesn't matter who commands them. We will protect. The security of Europe's eastern flank depends only on our defense.
Ukrainian soldiers, Ukrainian guns, Ukrainian tanks, Ukrainian missiles are all that protect Europe from such marches as we see today on Russian territory. And when we ask to give us the F-16 fighters or the ATACMS, we're enhancing our common defense. Real defense.
Second, everything must be real. It's time for everyone in the world to frankly say that all of Russia's criminal actions against Ukraine were and are unprovoked. And we all have to focus exclusively on our common security priorities. NATO is not just a word or a set of formal promises. These are reliable guarantees for everyone that peace won't be destroyed. Without Ukraine, such guarantees are worthless. Already in July at the summit in Vilnius, it is a historic chance for real decisions without looking back at Russia. Any nation that borders Russia supports this.
What will we, Ukrainians, do?
We will defend our country. We will defend our freedom. We will not be silent and we will not be inactive. We know how to win – and it will happen. Our victory in this war.
And what will you, Russians, do?
The longer your troops stay on Ukrainian land, the more devastation they will bring to Russia. The longer this person is in the Kremlin, the more disasters there will be.
I will be off this gorum soon anyway. A lot of celebrating to be donr tonight. People in the west are stupider than i thought.
And yet you still waste your time on here. Time after time after time. You post your laughable shit, we ban you. You come back and post more laughable shit.
The number of people you have turned? Zero.
Lol you think i think brainwashed people will suddenly agree with me. You have been brainwashed by your govts since the 60s
Alright Leon, joke’s done.
It isn't Leon. He hasn't denounced western leaders as really being woke aliens. Yet.
Looks like #Putin and #Wagner are in concert staging a massive #Decoy to distract from their now launched #Plan of a #Massive #Attack on #Ukraine. No worries at the #Kremlin I’m told, #Putin did #Not fly to #SaintPetersburg and is doing #business as usual. There will be soon a #Tectonic element of #Truth revealed shortly and it will change #Everything for the better for #Humanity. Signals from #Washington confirm this and they are much #Worried In schort, #Biden #Zelensky in big #Trouble, #Shock and #Awe about to happen
John Sweeney 2 hours ago... "This is a Ceausescu moment for Putin, the odds are with Prighozin." 2 hours later the 'rebellion' is over. NO ONE should take this MUG seriously! Where are the BBC fact checkers?
I think we all have to agree what an impressive leader Putin is after his behaviour today.
You might have to agree in Russia, but one of the nice things about living in an actual democracy is that we don't have to agree.
You tend to get better (not perfect, but better) decisions that way. Maybe you and your chums should try it.
Here's an example. The government governs badly, it becomes visibly unpopular, we can be confident that it will stop being the government. It's not a perfect system, but it does the job in the end.
Labour makes gains and leads by 18 points
Labour 44% (+3) Conservatives 26% (-3) Lib Dems 8% (-3) SNP 2% (-1) Green 7% (n/c) Reform UK 10% (+3)
Curious thing is that the LLG/CoRefUK split hasn't changed.
That might just be a noise effect, natch. But a Con-RefUK shift kinda makes sense ("you didn't save our Boris YOU BASTARDS"), whereas the Lib-Lab one doesn't.
Looks like #Putin and #Wagner are in concert staging a massive #Decoy to distract from their now launched #Plan of a #Massive #Attack on #Ukraine. No worries at the #Kremlin I’m told, #Putin did #Not fly to #SaintPetersburg and is doing #business as usual. There will be soon a #Tectonic element of #Truth revealed shortly and it will change #Everything for the better for #Humanity. Signals from #Washington confirm this and they are much #Worried In schort, #Biden #Zelensky in big #Trouble, #Shock and #Awe about to happen
Who would watch Putin and Wagner in concert? Massive Attack I get - seen them a few times - but Wagner was shit in Britain’s got talent and I’ve seen those vids of Putin crooning. Will probably stick to Glastonbury thanks.
I think we all have to agree what an impressive leader Putin is after his behaviour today.
You might have to agree in Russia, but one of the nice things about living in an actual democracy is that we don't have to agree.
You tend to get better (not perfect, but better) decisions that way. Maybe you and your chums should try it.
Here's an example. The government governs badly, it becomes visibly unpopular, we can be confident that it will stop being the government. It's not a perfect system, but it does the job in the end.
Labour makes gains and leads by 18 points
Labour 44% (+3) Conservatives 26% (-3) Lib Dems 8% (-3) SNP 2% (-1) Green 7% (n/c) Reform UK 10% (+3)
This isn't the Spithead Mutiny: this is Russia. It's not the sort of place where you shake hands, agree a deal, and go back to how things were.
Either Prigozhin got everything he wanted, and is now the power behind the throne, or he'll accidentally fall out a window soon.
My guess is the former.
Prigozhin's actions have often reminded me of those of rebellious barons in times Medieval. Criticising the courtiers (Shoigu and Gerasimov) around the King (Putin) rather than the King himself.
In medieval times a rebellion like this normally ended in one of three ways. Either the rebels lost their nerve, negotiated, and then were crushed after dispersing. Or they fought and lost. Or they fought and won, and became the power behind the throne because they then controlled the body of the King.
I think Prigozhin is now a dead man walking (but I have flip-flopped over this more times than I care to be reminded).
I think we all have to agree what an impressive leader Putin is after his behaviour today.
You might have to agree in Russia, but one of the nice things about living in an actual democracy is that we don't have to agree.
You tend to get better (not perfect, but better) decisions that way. Maybe you and your chums should try it.
Here's an example. The government governs badly, it becomes visibly unpopular, we can be confident that it will stop being the government. It's not a perfect system, but it does the job in the end.
Labour makes gains and leads by 18 points
Labour 44% (+3) Conservatives 26% (-3) Lib Dems 8% (-3) SNP 2% (-1) Green 7% (n/c) Reform UK 10% (+3)
I suspect it won't avoid the shedding of the blood of the Wagner leadership, probably sooner rather than later. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.
Meanwhile an 18% lead for Lab with Opinium and the Cons on 26%. It almost makes you think Luckyguy might be right and the Cons should have stuck with La Truss!!
Liz Truss had a chance of winning a super-majority, it was very slim but it was possible.
Rishi Sunak has no chance of achieving anything. His Ed Miliband tribute act is the wrong approach when the country want more from their politicians than sound bites. And he doesn't do it well at all, comes across increasingly patronising and he appears so out of touch.
I think we all have to agree what an impressive leader Putin is after his behaviour today.
You might have to agree in Russia, but one of the nice things about living in an actual democracy is that we don't have to agree.
You tend to get better (not perfect, but better) decisions that way. Maybe you and your chums should try it.
Here's an example. The government governs badly, it becomes visibly unpopular, we can be confident that it will stop being the government. It's not a perfect system, but it does the job in the end.
Labour makes gains and leads by 18 points
Labour 44% (+3) Conservatives 26% (-3) Lib Dems 8% (-3) SNP 2% (-1) Green 7% (n/c) Reform UK 10% (+3)
Reform on 10% ties in with the recent Welsh poll that had them at 12%.
If that turns into a pattern, a rout becomes something existential for the Conservatives. And I don't know how they win back votes from RefUK without repelling almost as many votes on the centre right.
I'm not expecting a spectacular... but why shouldn't it happen?
This really has remarkable similarities to last year. Putin makes a decision certain insiders may think is crazy ; bombing the Wagner camps, and publicly declaring against Prigozhin, this morning, or the nuclear rhetoric last year ; Lukashenko steps in as the first publicly-allowed challenge, or moderation of course. Decision changes.
As I mentioned earlier in the weekend, I really wouldn't bet against Lukashenko being much more powerful than many people think.
I will be off this gorum soon anyway. A lot of celebrating to be donr tonight. People in the west are stupider than i thought.
What's a gorum? Is this some Russian word I don't know meaning 'shift?'
I think it's a type of fish sauce - widely enjoyed by the Romans. I think I read a Spectator article about it. Or possibly just Keith Floyd pished and slurring in Northumbria. One of the two.
As I said earlier I think Kadyrov's support for Putin was key here. If the PMC AND the Chechens were heading to Moscow, Putin would have been in serious trouble.
I think we all have to agree what an impressive leader Putin is after his behaviour today.
You might have to agree in Russia, but one of the nice things about living in an actual democracy is that we don't have to agree.
You tend to get better (not perfect, but better) decisions that way. Maybe you and your chums should try it.
Here's an example. The government governs badly, it becomes visibly unpopular, we can be confident that it will stop being the government. It's not a perfect system, but it does the job in the end.
Labour makes gains and leads by 18 points
Labour 44% (+3) Conservatives 26% (-3) Lib Dems 8% (-3) SNP 2% (-1) Green 7% (n/c) Reform UK 10% (+3)
Reform on 10% ties in with the recent Welsh poll that had them at 12%.
If that turns into a pattern, a rout becomes something existential for the Conservatives. And I don't know how they win back votes from RefUK without repelling almost as many votes on the centre right.
I'm not expecting a spectacular... but why shouldn't it happen?
Well it happened in 2015 with UKIP. Cameron had offered the EU referendum to try and contain them. Can't do that again of course.
I think we all have to agree what an impressive leader Putin is after his behaviour today.
You might have to agree in Russia, but one of the nice things about living in an actual democracy is that we don't have to agree.
You tend to get better (not perfect, but better) decisions that way. Maybe you and your chums should try it.
Here's an example. The government governs badly, it becomes visibly unpopular, we can be confident that it will stop being the government. It's not a perfect system, but it does the job in the end.
Labour makes gains and leads by 18 points
Labour 44% (+3) Conservatives 26% (-3) Lib Dems 8% (-3) SNP 2% (-1) Green 7% (n/c) Reform UK 10% (+3)
New low for the SNP I think. Of course that stirring and innovative speech from Yousless today will soon have things moving in the right direction.
The Scottish subsample (weighted sample size 126) is: Lab 34% SNP 28% Con 19% Grn 12% Ref 6% LD 1%
Obviously a heroically large margin of error, but interesting to see the Greens up - recently they've only stood a very small number of candidates in Westminster elections.
That's an odd poll from Opinium with a much higher Reform share than most other polls. We'll see what R&W has to offer on Monday.
The Labour-Conservative gap at 18 fits well into the current polling cycle - just a superficial observation the larger samples seem to record the lowest Conservative shares currently and if those who tell us YouGov is the one that weighs sub samples correctly are also right, that would be a further worry for Conservatives.
The Opinium England sub sample has Labour on 45.5%, the Conservatives on 27% and both the LDs and Reform on 9%.
Liz Truss had a chance of winning a super-majority, it was very slim but it was possible.
Rishi Sunak has no chance of achieving anything. His Ed Miliband tribute act is the wrong approach when the country want more from their politicians than sound bites. And he doesn't do it well at all, comes across increasingly patronising and he appears so out of touch.
Liz Tuss was leading the Tories to Canada style rout, Sunak is at least at worst facing 1997 style defeat.
Albeit yes Sunak personality wise is very similar to Ed Miliband, both policy wonks and geeks while Starmer resembles Cameron 2010, competent, appealing to swing voters looking for change from an unpopular government but not trusted by his party's base.
I am glad some bloodshed was saved, any life lost is too much.
Did you say that to Putin before he invaded Ukraine?
Did you say it to Blair before he invaded Iraq?
Or are you a hypocrite?
Genuine question, did you leave the Labour Party over Iraq and Afghanistan?
Nah back then BJO was still Labour as he's told us many times. Apparently SKS isn't real Labour but Blair was.
Let's be honest, he just hates Starmer for no rational reason. Very odd.
What's with all this aggression CHB?
You're just going to let BJO's constant posts go? He's been aggressive with me and others for months.
No idea - BJO seems as fine as any poster on PB. Both a low and high standard - deeply wise being on PB, and then we all let ourselves down.
But I was rather more observing that you're lashing out a bit at all and everyone. It seems rather out of character.
Not any more than usual
You see if you had been (say) MalcolmG I'd have expected your every word to diminish my soul (and deter me from PB), but I didn't expect such things from you.
"⚡️#BREAKING Prigozhin accepted Lukashenka's proposal to stop the movement of PMC "Wagner" — TASS"
It looks like he may be running things, at least to some extent. TASS usually faithfully reports everything around what Putin says, or does, and they also reported him leaving for St Petersburg earlier, which wasn't too good for his image.
I am glad some bloodshed was saved, any life lost is too much.
Did you say that to Putin before he invaded Ukraine?
Did you say it to Blair before he invaded Iraq?
Or are you a hypocrite?
Genuine question, did you leave the Labour Party over Iraq and Afghanistan?
Nah back then BJO was still Labour as he's told us many times. Apparently SKS isn't real Labour but Blair was.
Let's be honest, he just hates Starmer for no rational reason. Very odd.
What's with all this aggression CHB?
You're just going to let BJO's constant posts go? He's been aggressive with me and others for months.
No idea - BJO seems as fine as any poster on PB. Both a low and high standard - deeply wise being on PB, and then we all let ourselves down.
But I was rather more observing that you're lashing out a bit at all and everyone. It seems rather out of character.
Not any more than usual
You see if you had been (say) MalcolmG I'd have expected your every word to diminish my soul (and deter me from PB), but I didn't expect such things from you.
Horse struggles with his mental health and it seems like he's going through one of his difficult phases again where he craves and needs lots of attention - lashing out, spamming and saying controversial things (with no particular consistency) is one way to get it and more likely to illicit a response. Praise and reassurance would be much better, but that's harder to obtain.
Best thing to do is log-off, of course, and talk it through with someone.
As I said earlier I think Kadyrov's support for Putin was key here. If the PMC AND the Chechens were heading to Moscow, Putin would have been in serious trouble.
Saved by Chechen peasants and Belarussian stooges, how embarrassing for Moscovites and St Petersburgers.
That's an odd poll from Opinium with a much higher Reform share than most other polls. We'll see what R&W has to offer on Monday.
The Labour-Conservative gap at 18 fits well into the current polling cycle - just a superficial observation the larger samples seem to record the lowest Conservative shares currently and if those who tell us YouGov is the one that weighs sub samples correctly are also right, that would be a further worry for Conservatives.
The Opinium England sub sample has Labour on 45.5%, the Conservatives on 27% and both the LDs and Reform on 9%.
Not out of line with some of the other polls we've seen of late, is it? It was only a matter of time before REFUK started to take some Tory votes wasn't it?
Reform on 10% now just 2% off of UKIP's voteshare in 2015, Farage may be tempted to return to lead them if that becomes consistent.
However plenty of time for Sunak and Hunt to win back voters from Reform with tax cuts and reductions in immigration
Except in reality... neither of those works, does it?
There is less than no money. So tax cuts are out of the question- the frozen thresholds means that taxes are going up, if anything. And immigration is the only thing keeping health, social care and the economy moving.
Labour leads by 31 points amongst mortgage owners. End days.
Very noticeably the impact of the rate rise - Labour up 9 among people with mortgages. Little movement among outright owners (who still like the Tories, +9 over Labour) and renters (who still hate them, -37). Starmer winning the (un)popularity contest by 8 points. And the Scottish subsample... OK, never mind.
I think we all have to agree what an impressive leader Putin is after his behaviour today.
You might have to agree in Russia, but one of the nice things about living in an actual democracy is that we don't have to agree.
You tend to get better (not perfect, but better) decisions that way. Maybe you and your chums should try it.
Here's an example. The government governs badly, it becomes visibly unpopular, we can be confident that it will stop being the government. It's not a perfect system, but it does the job in the end.
Labour makes gains and leads by 18 points
Labour 44% (+3) Conservatives 26% (-3) Lib Dems 8% (-3) SNP 2% (-1) Green 7% (n/c) Reform UK 10% (+3)
New low for the SNP I think. Of course that stirring and innovative speech from Yousless today will soon have things moving in the right direction.
The Scottish subsample (weighted sample size 126) is: Lab 34% SNP 28% Con 19% Grn 12% Ref 6% LD 1%
Obviously a heroically large margin of error, but interesting to see the Greens up - recently they've only stood a very small number of candidates in Westminster elections.
If Labour win most seats in Scotland again as that poll suggests, Starmer almost certainly wins a UK wide majority
Labour leads by 31 points amongst mortgage owners. End days.
Very noticeably the impact of the rate rise - Labour up 9 among people with mortgages. Little movement among outright owners (who still like the Tories, +9 over Labour) and renters (who still hate them, -37). Starmer winning the (un)popularity contest by 8 points. And the Scottish subsample... OK, never mind.
I thought we weren't doing subsamples anymore.
What did outright owners win by in 2019, 2017 and before? What is the swing there?
That's an odd poll from Opinium with a much higher Reform share than most other polls. We'll see what R&W has to offer on Monday.
The Labour-Conservative gap at 18 fits well into the current polling cycle - just a superficial observation the larger samples seem to record the lowest Conservative shares currently and if those who tell us YouGov is the one that weighs sub samples correctly are also right, that would be a further worry for Conservatives.
The Opinium England sub sample has Labour on 45.5%, the Conservatives on 27% and both the LDs and Reform on 9%.
With the election probably just 15 months away, I wonder if the Opinium swingback assumption will be adjusted downwards in the coming months?
As a youngish man, was big fan of Richard Feynstein's quest, in midst of Cold War, to someday, somehow travel to Tuva ASSR. As documented in "Tuva or Bust!"
The renowned physicist first heard about Tuva as a kid before WWII, when he collected stamps from the then-independent (sorta) Tanu Tuva > Tuvan People's Republic.
Am certain that RF would be saddened, if not shocked, to learn that Russian Defense Secretary Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu is > a native of Tuva > of half-Tuvan ancestry, on his father's side > graduate of School No. 1 in Kyzyl, capital of Tuva and claimed by Tuvans as the "Center of Asia".
"⚡️#BREAKING Prigozhin accepted Lukashenka's proposal to stop the movement of PMC "Wagner" — TASS"
It looks like he may be running things, at least to some extent. TASS usually faithfully reports everything around what Putin says, or does, and they also reported him leaving for St Petersburg earlier, which wasn't too good for his image.
The worry for Ukraine and the West is that today's events draw Lukashenka, Prigozhin and Putin together in a new co-ordinated strategy to continue the war in Ukraine
Reform on 10% now just 2% off of UKIP's voteshare in 2015, Farage may be tempted to return to lead them if that becomes consistent.
However plenty of time for Sunak and Hunt to win back voters from Reform with tax cuts and reductions in immigration
Except in reality... neither of those works, does it?
There is less than no money. So tax cuts are out of the question- the frozen thresholds means that taxes are going up, if anything. And immigration is the only thing keeping health, social care and the economy moving.
So what does Rishi do?
If inflation falls through the government's tight control of spending then that would allow for a cut in the basic rate especially, perhaps promise of raising the IHT threshold to £1 million for all estates if the Tories are re elected.
Economic migrants are certainly not all working in the NHS and migration remains a key concern for Tory to RefUK swing voters
I think we all have to agree what an impressive leader Putin is after his behaviour today.
You might have to agree in Russia, but one of the nice things about living in an actual democracy is that we don't have to agree.
You tend to get better (not perfect, but better) decisions that way. Maybe you and your chums should try it.
Here's an example. The government governs badly, it becomes visibly unpopular, we can be confident that it will stop being the government. It's not a perfect system, but it does the job in the end.
Labour makes gains and leads by 18 points
Labour 44% (+3) Conservatives 26% (-3) Lib Dems 8% (-3) SNP 2% (-1) Green 7% (n/c) Reform UK 10% (+3)
New low for the SNP I think. Of course that stirring and innovative speech from Yousless today will soon have things moving in the right direction.
The Scottish subsample (weighted sample size 126) is: Lab 34% SNP 28% Con 19% Grn 12% Ref 6% LD 1%
Obviously a heroically large margin of error, but interesting to see the Greens up - recently they've only stood a very small number of candidates in Westminster elections.
If Labour win most seats in Scotland again as that poll suggests, Starmer almost certainly wins a UK wide majority
Yes, though I feel compelled to caution that Labour haven't yet managed a lead in a proper Scotland-only poll.
There was a higher goal to avoid bloodshed and internal confrontation, in the name of these goals were the efforts of Lukashenka - Peskov
Again, no one's talking about Putin. In fact, that smells suspiciously like yet another apparent raising of rank, and national glorification of, Lukashenka.
Yeah, more than usual. You've gone a bit barmy the last few days.
I absolutely have not.
I posted this morning that I'd run a 10K and was told I was lying, I don't know you think is going barmy but it's not me!
I didn't see anyone call you a liar, I did ask if you'd run 2 as you posted you'd just finished a 10k twice. You need to calm down fella, it's the internet, it don't mean a thing.
As I said earlier I think Kadyrov's support for Putin was key here. If the PMC AND the Chechens were heading to Moscow, Putin would have been in serious trouble.
Saved by Chechen peasants and Belarussian stooges, how embarrassing for Moscovites and St Petersburgers.
I suspect it won't avoid the shedding of the blood of the Wagner leadership, probably sooner rather than later. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.
Meanwhile an 18% lead for Lab with Opinium and the Cons on 26%. It almost makes you think Luckyguy might be right and the Cons should have stuck with La Truss!!
Yeah, more than usual. You've gone a bit barmy the last few days.
I absolutely have not.
I posted this morning that I'd run a 10K and was told I was lying, I don't know you think is going barmy but it's not me!
I didn't see anyone call you a liar, I did ask if you'd run 2 as you posted you'd just finished a 10k twice. You need to calm down fella, it's the internet, it don't mean a thing.
I did. I was taking the piss because Horse pretended he was a high-rolling gambler some time ago and got caught out. It was a reference to that.
Comments
Actually, mouthpiece or ringpiece? Not sure.
https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/1672673611700633603?s=20
"Today at 9 pm Lukashenka and Putin spoke on the phone again, according to Lukashenka's press service.
Putin thanked Lukashenka for the work done:“The President of Belarus informed the President of Russia in detail about the results of negotiations with the leadership of PMC Wagner. The President of Russia supported and thanked his Belarusian colleague for the work done,” the press service of Lukashenko said."
"Lukashenko informed Putin who was really in charge and what was going on, and Putin had the passive and receptory role", that sounds a bit like, in typical post-Soviet Kremlinologist-speak.
(Don't worry about me- I've got to wait up hanging around for the Tweenie to get back from a big day out. This could take a while.)
Today, the world saw that the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete absence of any predictability.
First, the world should not be afraid. We know what protects us. Our unity.
Ukraine will definitely be able to protect Europe from any Russian forces, and it doesn't matter who commands them. We will protect. The security of Europe's eastern flank depends only on our defense.
Ukrainian soldiers, Ukrainian guns, Ukrainian tanks, Ukrainian missiles are all that protect Europe from such marches as we see today on Russian territory. And when we ask to give us the F-16 fighters or the ATACMS, we're enhancing our common defense. Real defense.
Second, everything must be real. It's time for everyone in the world to frankly say that all of Russia's criminal actions against Ukraine were and are unprovoked. And we all have to focus exclusively on our common security priorities. NATO is not just a word or a set of formal promises. These are reliable guarantees for everyone that peace won't be destroyed. Without Ukraine, such guarantees are worthless. Already in July at the summit in Vilnius, it is a historic chance for real decisions without looking back at Russia. Any nation that borders Russia supports this.
What will we, Ukrainians, do?
We will defend our country. We will defend our freedom. We will not be silent and we will not be inactive. We know how to win – and it will happen. Our victory in this war.
And what will you, Russians, do?
The longer your troops stay on Ukrainian land, the more devastation they will bring to Russia. The longer this person is in the Kremlin, the more disasters there will be.
https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1672662657881571332
Back then I even voted LibDem (2001, 2005).
Brezhnev did sometimes pose as a Russian - but then, so did his idol Stalin.
The snag is they will blow up many Russians at the same time.
@realDonaldTrump
briefed and #Prepared
https://twitter.com/Najadi4Justice/status/1672597470889508864?s=20
That might just be a noise effect, natch. But a Con-RefUK shift kinda makes sense ("you didn't save our Boris YOU BASTARDS"), whereas the Lib-Lab one doesn't.
7:03 PM · Jun 24, 2023
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266.6K
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1672666815124893697?s=20
In medieval times a rebellion like this normally ended in one of three ways. Either the rebels lost their nerve, negotiated, and then were crushed after dispersing. Or they fought and lost. Or they fought and won, and became the power behind the throne because they then controlled the body of the King.
I think Prigozhin is now a dead man walking (but I have flip-flopped over this more times than I care to be reminded).
https://tenor.com/bb3nV.gif
Meanwhile an 18% lead for Lab with Opinium and the Cons on 26%. It almost makes you think Luckyguy might be right and the Cons should have stuck with La Truss!!
Progressives on 7
Rishi Sunak has no chance of achieving anything. His Ed Miliband tribute act is the wrong approach when the country want more from their politicians than sound bites. And he doesn't do it well at all, comes across increasingly patronising and he appears so out of touch.
I'm not expecting a spectacular... but why shouldn't it happen?
Let's be honest, he just hates Starmer for no rational reason. Very odd.
As I mentioned earlier in the weekend, I really wouldn't bet against Lukashenko being much more powerful than many people think.
Born Again, basically. Cleansed of their sins, they want to cleanse the world…
Free deodorant from BO police!!
Con: 22% (-2 from 15-16 Jun)
Lab: 47% (+4)
Lib Dem: 11% (=)
Green: 8% (=)
Reform UK: 7% (=)
SNP: 3% (-1)
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1672532010231902208
Which of the following do you think would make the best prime minister? (20-21 Jun)
Rishi Sunak: 21% (-2 from 6-7 Jun)
Keir Starmer: 32% (+2)
Not sure: 42% (-1)
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1672532012383584256
Lab 34%
SNP 28%
Con 19%
Grn 12%
Ref 6%
LD 1%
Obviously a heroically large margin of error, but interesting to see the Greens up - recently they've only stood a very small number of candidates in Westminster elections.
But I was rather more observing that you're lashing out a bit at all and everyone. It seems rather out of character.
That's an odd poll from Opinium with a much higher Reform share than most other polls. We'll see what R&W has to offer on Monday.
The Labour-Conservative gap at 18 fits well into the current polling cycle - just a superficial observation the larger samples seem to record the lowest Conservative shares currently and if those who tell us YouGov is the one that weighs sub samples correctly are also right, that would be a further worry for Conservatives.
The Opinium England sub sample has Labour on 45.5%, the Conservatives on 27% and both the LDs and Reform on 9%.
Albeit yes Sunak personality wise is very similar to Ed Miliband, both policy wonks and geeks while Starmer resembles Cameron 2010, competent, appealing to swing voters looking for change from an unpopular government but not trusted by his party's base.
However plenty of time for Sunak and Hunt to win back voters from Reform with tax cuts and reductions in immigration
It looks like he may be running things, at least to some extent. TASS usually faithfully reports everything around what Putin says, or does, and they also reported him leaving for St Petersburg earlier, which wasn't too good for his image.
Best thing to do is log-off, of course, and talk it through with someone.
BJO is no more aggressive than you are on this forum
Just read back some of the foul mouthed comment pieces you posted the last few days
This is an Internet forum of good repute fairly moderated so if you do not like BJO posts ignore them or do something else
Conservatives have dropped 2% since the start of June - back to February 2023 levels (pre Northern Ireland deal)
Labour up 2.5% since the start of June - but still 1.5% below February 2023 levels. This shows the quantum of the Labour drop this year.
Lib Dems down 1% since the start of June - but still 1.5% up since February.
Greens up 0.5% since the start of June and up 1% since February.
Reform broadly flat.
There is less than no money. So tax cuts are out of the question- the frozen thresholds means that taxes are going up, if anything. And immigration is the only thing keeping health, social care and the economy moving.
So what does Rishi do?
I posted this morning that I'd run a 10K and was told I was lying, I don't know you think is going barmy but it's not me!
What did outright owners win by in 2019, 2017 and before? What is the swing there?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuva_or_Bust!
The renowned physicist first heard about Tuva as a kid before WWII, when he collected stamps from the then-independent (sorta) Tanu Tuva > Tuvan People's Republic.
Am certain that RF would be saddened, if not shocked, to learn that Russian Defense Secretary Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu is
> a native of Tuva
> of half-Tuvan ancestry, on his father's side
> graduate of School No. 1 in Kyzyl, capital of Tuva and claimed by Tuvans as the "Center of Asia".
You are not the forum moderation team however much you would like to be and how often you dream of it.
Back to ignoring each other before we both get banned, see ya
I really hope not but who knows
Economic migrants are certainly not all working in the NHS and migration remains a key concern for Tory to RefUK swing voters
Again, no one's talking about Putin. In fact, that smells suspiciously like yet another apparent raising of rank, and national glorification of, Lukashenka.