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New YouGov polling finds Tory collapse in its its heartlands – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,694
edited June 2023 in General
New YouGov polling finds Tory collapse in its its heartlands – politicalbetting.com

That the Tory collapse is pretty uniform across cities, towns and villages will worry No10. Means fighting on all fronts. Not many MPs free to go and help colleagues. More on @TimesRadio from 11am pic.twitter.com/CR2Uy47pw9

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,726
    edited June 2023
    First like Labour in rural areas (nearly).
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,207
    No one likes it that CPI is out of control.

    Everyone unhappy with the Government

    Rishi + Hunt + Bank of England = useless
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,726
    londonpubman said:

    No one likes it that CPI is out of control.

    Everyone unhappy with the Government

    Rishi + Hunt + Bank of England = useless

    Clinton's mantra remains true - it's the economy, stupid.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,943
    Scheduled Musk Vs Zuckerberg cage match being reported on BBC 🙉
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,083
    edited June 2023
    So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.

    Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas overall even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years. The chart showing the Tories winning urban areas in 2019 I suspect includes the suburbs not just inner cities
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,207
    HYUFD said:

    So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.

    Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years

    Indeed LAB got close in many unlikely rural area 1997 2001 but generally fell short. Likely to be similar 2024. Looks near certain that LAB will win overall vote by at least 10%. 12% 43-31 in 1997?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,726
    FPT:
    CarlottaVance said:

    Anyway, looking to the future:

    I think there could be more space for flexibility and creativity in the EU's approach to the UK under a @UKLabour @Keir_Starmer Govt than most assume - and the EU's current “official position” suggests. Thread 1/

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1671766022703964160?s=20

    Interesting thread, thanks.

    Can't argue with this:

    7 years on from Brexit, it's objectively clear - except to a narrow band of ideological die-hards - that Brexit has been a total and utter disaster. There is no risk any EU member state will look/is aiming to copy cat what the UK has done

    How long is the queue of Brexit imitators?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,532
    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,726
    HYUFD said:

    So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.

    Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas overall even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years. The chart showing the Tories winning urban areas in 2019 I suspect includes the suburbs not just inner cities

    Prepare for power ye diehard Tories!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,726
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Although they have the next 18 months of booming economy and low inflation to recover, of course.

    Oh...
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,341
    HYUFD said:

    So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.

    Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years

    You are trying the make the best out of a dire polling position and fair play to your loyalties, but the truth is the conservative party is heading into opposition and labour will have a very workable majority in 24

    The bigger question is just how high interest rates will be over the next few years and how long repossessions, negative equity, and falling house prices are a feature of our economy

    In the 1990s it was the best part of 4 to 5 years before prices started to recover
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,943
    The votes are probably more efficiently split for the yellows and reds too
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,072
    The live poll tracker from Sky News collates the results of opinion surveys carried out by all the main polling organisations - and allows you to see how the political parties are performing.

    By charting changing voting intentions from January 2020 to now, the tracker allows you to monitor the evolving picture as we head towards the next general election.

    https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-poll-tracker-how-are-political-parties-performing-as-an-election-looms-12903488
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,007
    HYUFD said:

    So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.

    Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas overall even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years. The chart showing the Tories winning urban areas in 2019 I suspect includes the suburbs not just inner cities

    If Labour win Rural seats the Tory party will be below 100 seats at the next election.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1671617461303533568

    Hear there were some serious truth bombs at the 1922 Committee in address by @FrankLuntz
    to Tory MPs.

    Said anyone with a 15k or less majority is "at this moment in time" under threat of losing their seat - added: "this is what CCHQ are not telling you."
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,270
    HYUFD said:

    So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.

    Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas overall even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years. The chart showing the Tories winning urban areas in 2019 I suspect includes the suburbs not just inner cities

    ... and your point is?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,367
    Looks to me like the largest swing is in the "Towns and their hinterlands" - i.e. the METTHs of PB lore, which were once identified as containing the swing seats in UK general elections. That's the worst possible outcome for the Tories.

    METTHs = Middle England Towns and Their Hinterlands
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,347
    Benpointer said:

    londonpubman said:

    No one likes it that CPI is out of control.

    Everyone unhappy with the Government

    Rishi + Hunt + Bank of England = useless

    Clinton's mantra remains true - it's the economy, stupid.
    And his advisor Carvell's observation, that if he was reincarnated he would want to come back as the bond market because it controls everything.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,072
    @faisalislam

    NEW

    Former Bank of Eng Dep Governor Charlie Bean to on Today:
    “It’s pretty clear that our inflation problem is a bit worse than elsewhere”…

    Points to post-pandemic labour market losing 500k workers, and then Brexit making access to workers “less elastic”

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1671779233083916288
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,341
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.

    Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas overall even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years. The chart showing the Tories winning urban areas in 2019 I suspect includes the suburbs not just inner cities

    If Labour win Rural seats the Tory party will be below 100 seats at the next election.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1671617461303533568

    Hear there were some serious truth bombs at the 1922 Committee in address by @FrankLuntz
    to Tory MPs.

    Said anyone with a 15k or less majority is "at this moment in time" under threat of losing their seat - added: "this is what CCHQ are not telling you."
    Not sure why CCHQ need to tell them - they must know from their constituents
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,218
    Benpointer said:

    FPT:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Anyway, looking to the future:

    I think there could be more space for flexibility and creativity in the EU's approach to the UK under a @UKLabour @Keir_Starmer Govt than most assume - and the EU's current “official position” suggests. Thread 1/

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1671766022703964160?s=20

    Interesting thread, thanks.

    Can't argue with this:

    7 years on from Brexit, it's objectively clear - except to a narrow band of ideological die-hards - that Brexit has been a total and utter disaster. There is no risk any EU member state will look/is aiming to copy cat what the UK has done

    How long is the queue of Brexit imitators?
    Haven’t had a Brexiteer gleefully rubbing their hands over the next country to leave the EU for months. Possibly never again?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,270
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,525
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Not quite yet, though a lot of the pieces are falling into place.

    What's missing is someone further to the right hoovering up votes the Conservatives would like to count on.

    In other words, Conservative survival depends on one man...



    Sorry if you were still enjoying your breakfast.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,218
    Damn statistics just ganging up on the UK now.


  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,275
    Just listened to Reeves on Today

    She didn't say "Tory mortgage penalty" once

    She appears to believe that the energy company windfall tax will solve inflation by both reducing energy bills and paying for public sector pay rises which won't be inflationary
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,341
    On the poll the conservative share has fallen by 19% and labour has risen by 11% with the lib dems static

    What has happened to the 8% or am I missing something?
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,525
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @faisalislam

    NEW

    Former Bank of Eng Dep Governor Charlie Bean to on Today:
    “It’s pretty clear that our inflation problem is a bit worse than elsewhere”…

    Points to post-pandemic labour market losing 500k workers, and then Brexit making access to workers “less elastic”

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1671779233083916288

    Except we have established that net migration reached a new peak last year at over 600k. Some left after Brexit but many more came from around the world. Our labour market remains remarkably elastic. What we are not getting is productivity growth that can drive down prices. Poor productivity + higher wages, specifically increases in the NMW, = inflation. QED.
    We've replaced workers who could just come and go with workers who come from further and need supporting paperwork.

    Bound to be less responsive.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Damn statistics just ganging up on the UK now.


    I suggest you take an actual look at the statistics and how they were used.

    Put it this way, if those journalists put it forward for peer review they would not be laughed at, they would be named, their universities contacted and their degrees withdrawn.

    For example, they claim at one point that Sweden's death rate went down during the pandemic.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,072
    @rafaelbehr

    Of people who say economy worse now than a year ago (and clear majority do) these are the reasons they give.

    Brexit cutting through despite no Westminster party talking much about it in this (or any other) context.


  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,347
    Possibly because I am feeling contrary this morning I would argue that this is potentially good news for the Tories in that many of their safe seats will become less so without necessarily costing that many seats. This makes their vote more efficient and less catastrophic than would be the case if the loss of support was all in their more marginal seats.

    There is, of course, a tipping point where large slews of seats come into play and no one would claim the Tories are anywhere near a good place but at least the pain is being shared around.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,083
    '@GoodwinMJ
    ·
    17h
    The old elite projected their social status through their wealth, estates & titles. The new elite project their status & distinguish themselves from the masses by preaching radical woke progressivism'

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1671518796559818757?s=20
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,525
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On the poll the conservative share has fallen by 19% and labour has risen by 11% with the lib dems static

    What has happened to the 8% or am I missing something?

    Greens and RefUK, I suspect.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,532
    HYUFD said:

    '@GoodwinMJ
    ·
    17h
    The old elite projected their social status through their wealth, estates & titles. The new elite project their status & distinguish themselves from the masses by preaching radical woke progressivism'

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1671518796559818757?s=20

    That is such bullshit from Matt Goodwin.

    We like to show our elitism with our wealth and laughing at peasants who voted for Brexit.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,270
    edited June 2023
    DavidL said:

    Possibly because I am feeling contrary this morning I would argue that this is potentially good news for the Tories in that many of their safe seats will become less so without necessarily costing that many seats. This makes their vote more efficient and less catastrophic than would be the case if the loss of support was all in their more marginal seats.

    There is, of course, a tipping point where large slews of seats come into play and no one would claim the Tories are anywhere near a good place but at least the pain is being shared around.

    The Conservative Party needs to be routed.

    Just because you like the name "Conservative" and agree with what that once stood for doesn't mean it's current iteration is fit for purpose.

    The Conservatives regrouping behind Braverman or Badenoch whilst hoping that Labour will be unable to turn the ship around would be horrendous news for the country.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,083
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.

    Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas overall even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years. The chart showing the Tories winning urban areas in 2019 I suspect includes the suburbs not just inner cities

    If Labour win Rural seats the Tory party will be below 100 seats at the next election.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1671617461303533568

    Hear there were some serious truth bombs at the 1922 Committee in address by @FrankLuntz
    to Tory MPs.

    Said anyone with a 15k or less majority is "at this moment in time" under threat of losing their seat - added: "this is what CCHQ are not telling you."
    Even if Labour and the LDs won almost all seats with a majority of 15k or less the Conservatives would still have over 100 seats (and they will retain some of them). Most rural seats would also stay Tory
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,341
    Some independent commentators are suggesting the cost of the triple lock upgrade with the same upgrade to benefits plus the rise in the national living wage and private sector pay awards above 7% have all added to inflationary pressure

    The obvious response is not to repeat it in 24 but is that even remotely politically possible

    It would be good to see Sunak and Hunt cancel the triple lock for 24

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,083
    edited June 2023
    Stuartinromford said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Not quite yet, though a lot of the pieces are falling into place.

    What's missing is someone further to the right hoovering up votes the Conservatives would like to count on.

    In other words, Conservative survival depends on one man...



    Sorry if you were still enjoying your breakfast.
    RefUK are already on 5-7% in most polls but FPTP means they won't get much higher, under PR they could be neck and neck with the Tories or even overtake them if Farage led them again, as populist right parties in Italy and France have overtaken the centre right party
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,072
    @steve_hawkes

    You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,856
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    '@GoodwinMJ
    ·
    17h
    The old elite projected their social status through their wealth, estates & titles. The new elite project their status & distinguish themselves from the masses by preaching radical woke progressivism'

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1671518796559818757?s=20

    That is such bullshit from Matt Goodwin.

    We like to show our elitism with our wealth and laughing at peasants who voted for Brexit.
    As for the old aristocracy, too (the 'real' lords, fide HYUFD, not the parvenus infesting Westminster), I see they are too busy being difficult about access to common land.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/21/aristocrat-forced-to-open-part-of-estate-to-public-after-council-ruling

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,532
    Scott_xP said:

    @steve_hawkes

    You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.

    That would be so regressive.

    So the government is bound to do it.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,083
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.
    The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than Hunt
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,525
    ydoethur said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Damn statistics just ganging up on the UK now.


    I suggest you take an actual look at the statistics and how they were used.

    Put it this way, if those journalists put it forward for peer review they would not be laughed at, they would be named, their universities contacted and their degrees withdrawn.

    For example, they claim at one point that Sweden's death rate went down during the pandemic.
    I've seen it claimed of Denmark, and it's not entirely crazy.

    All the "wash your hands and stay indoors (thank you baked potato)" stuff cut deaths from other infections. So if a county kept COVID deaths right down, it's conceivable that they could end up ahead overall.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,341
    edited June 2023
    Mexicanpete said:

    DavidL said:

    Possibly because I am feeling contrary this morning I would argue that this is potentially good news for the Tories in that many of their safe seats will become less so without necessarily costing that many seats. This makes their vote more efficient and less catastrophic than would be the case if the loss of support was all in their more marginal seats.

    There is, of course, a tipping point where large slews of seats come into play and no one would claim the Tories are anywhere near a good place but at least the pain is being shared around.

    The Conservative Party needs to be routed.

    Just because you like the name "Conservative" and agree with what that once stood for doesn't mean it's current iteration is fit for purpose.

    The Conservatives regrouping behind Braverman or Badenoch whilst hoping that Labour will be unable to turn the ship around would be horrendous news for the country.
    There are very many one nation conservatives who do not associate with the ERG just as Labour have moved away from Corbynites
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,856
    Scott_xP said:

    @rafaelbehr

    Of people who say economy worse now than a year ago (and clear majority do) these are the reasons they give.

    Brexit cutting through despite no Westminster party talking much about it in this (or any other) context.


    SNP talking plenty on Brexit. e.g. PMQ the other day.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,207
    Scott_xP said:

    @steve_hawkes

    You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.

    Which will just lead to ultra inflation central and big big interest rates, and ultimately complete economic meltdown 😡
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,726
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Some independent commentators are suggesting the cost of the triple lock upgrade with the same upgrade to benefits plus the rise in the national living wage and private sector pay awards above 7% have all added to inflationary pressure

    The obvious response is not to repeat it in 24 but is that even remotely politically possible

    It would be good to see Sunak and Hunt cancel the triple lock for 24

    Agreed. Starmer also needs to buy in.

    On Ukraine you feel that there are some grown-up conversations behind the scenes to ensure alignment to a sensible policy. If only the same could apply to the economy.

    TSE's hero Osborne basically ruined the economy with that triple lock.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,007
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @steve_hawkes

    You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.

    That would be so regressive.

    So the government is bound to do it.
    It would be the stupidest thing to do. helps only limited people and inflationary.

    So the Tory party are bound to do it.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,341
    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.
    The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than Hunt
    Rubbish - membership maybe
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,072
    @nicholascecil

    Brexit an ‘economic disaster’ for trade between UK and Germany, warn economists (ministers refusing to acknowledge this...)

    https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1671788109724364800
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,856
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Oh, is that another of those specialist sexual perversions such as Turkish conscripts I only ever hear about on PB?
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,363
    edited June 2023
    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Some independent commentators are suggesting the cost of the triple lock upgrade with the same upgrade to benefits plus the rise in the national living wage and private sector pay awards above 7% have all added to inflationary pressure

    The obvious response is not to repeat it in 24 but is that even remotely politically possible

    It would be good to see Sunak and Hunt cancel the triple lock for 24

    Agreed. Starmer also needs to buy in.

    On Ukraine you feel that there are some grown-up conversations behind the scenes to ensure alignment to a sensible policy. If only the same could apply to the economy.

    TSE's hero Osborne basically ruined the economy with that triple lock.
    What utter nonsense. In the overall scheme of things, the triple lock.is peanuts
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,347
    Mexicanpete said:

    DavidL said:

    Possibly because I am feeling contrary this morning I would argue that this is potentially good news for the Tories in that many of their safe seats will become less so without necessarily costing that many seats. This makes their vote more efficient and less catastrophic than would be the case if the loss of support was all in their more marginal seats.

    There is, of course, a tipping point where large slews of seats come into play and no one would claim the Tories are anywhere near a good place but at least the pain is being shared around.

    The Conservative Party needs to be routed.

    Just because you like the name "Conservative" and agree with what that once stood for doesn't mean it's current iteration is fit for purpose.

    The Conservatives regrouping behind Braverman or Badenoch whilst hoping that Labour will be unable to turn the ship around would be horrendous news for the country.
    I could not vote for a Tory party led by the likes of Braverman. It appals me she is even in the cabinet, especially in her current role. Badenoch maybe (she has been a lot less loud on the culture wars than I feared) but I remain a Cameroon and would very much welcome a step back to one nationism (if that is a word).

    Recent trends have indicated that few political parties take their first term in opposition as an indication they should be more moderate though. They usually double down on the stuff that got them thrown out in the first place.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,856
    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @steve_hawkes

    You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.

    That would be so regressive.

    So the government is bound to do it.
    It would be the stupidest thing to do. helps only limited people and inflationary.

    So the Tory party are bound to do it.
    Also v. unfair to renters.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,525
    HYUFD said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Not quite yet, though a lot of the pieces are falling into place.

    What's missing is someone further to the right hoovering up votes the Conservatives would like to count on.

    In other words, Conservative survival depends on one man...



    Sorry if you were still enjoying your breakfast.
    RefUK are already on 5-7% in most polls but FPTP means they won't get much higher, under PR they could be neck and neck with the Tories or even overtake them if Farage led them again, as populist right parties in Italy and France have overtaken the centre right party
    Farage certainly won't get (m)any seats, but what he can do is stop Rishi's Conservatives in a lot of constituencies.

    And, if we are following the Canada playbook, we could end up a Reformed Conservative Party, which I wouldn't like at all.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,083
    edited June 2023
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    No they aren't, they still lead in rural areas and are still much higher than the just 16% the Canadian Tories got in 1993, when not only did the Liberals win a landslide but the populist right Reform Party on 18% overtook the Progressive Conservatives as the main party of the Canadian right, winning 52 seats to just 2 for the Tories.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election

    The right in Canada only returned to power in 2006 under FPTP after the Tories and Reform's successor party the Canadian Alliance merged in 2003 to form the Conservative Party of Canada
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,363
    edited June 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholascecil

    Brexit an ‘economic disaster’ for trade between UK and Germany, warn economists (ministers refusing to acknowledge this...)

    https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1671788109724364800

    Are there perchance 363 other loony economists also saying the same thing?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,347
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Just listened to Reeves on Today

    She didn't say "Tory mortgage penalty" once

    She appears to believe that the energy company windfall tax will solve inflation by both reducing energy bills and paying for public sector pay rises which won't be inflationary

    BP and Shell are amongst the worse performers in the FTSE 100 this year. Where are these super profits she is going to tax? Already spent.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,270
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    DavidL said:

    Possibly because I am feeling contrary this morning I would argue that this is potentially good news for the Tories in that many of their safe seats will become less so without necessarily costing that many seats. This makes their vote more efficient and less catastrophic than would be the case if the loss of support was all in their more marginal seats.

    There is, of course, a tipping point where large slews of seats come into play and no one would claim the Tories are anywhere near a good place but at least the pain is being shared around.

    The Conservative Party needs to be routed.

    Just because you like the name "Conservative" and agree with what that once stood for doesn't mean it's current iteration is fit for purpose.

    The Conservatives regrouping behind Braverman or Badenoch whilst hoping that Labour will be unable to turn the ship around would be horrendous news for the country.
    There are very many one nation Conservatives who do not associate with the ERG just as Labour have moved away from Corbynites
    But you have been marginalised in the same way New Labour were under Corbyn.

    We need a sensible right of centre party fit for Government. I don't believe the mechanics of turning the Conservative Party into its Heath/Butler iteration now exists. The current Conservative Party is the party of Enoch Powell and Peter Griffiths.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,943
    edited June 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    @steve_hawkes

    You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.

    Some potential levers :.

    1) Longer term mortgages. Nationwide I believe offer the longest right now - Hunt could encourage other banks to offer long terms.
    2) 99 year heritable mortgages - a more extreme version of 1), done in Japan I think.
    3) Encourage banks to offer long term fixes (30 yr ?) - as happens in the USA. This way there's no shock for anyone midway through.

    Those would all be free for the Gov't, and of course it won't help the poor schmucks who can barely afford their interest only as it is ( I think theres still some about that were offered at the bottom of the rates cycle o_O !!! )
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,900
    Stuartinromford said:

    ydoethur said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Damn statistics just ganging up on the UK now.


    I suggest you take an actual look at the statistics and how they were used.

    Put it this way, if those journalists put it forward for peer review they would not be laughed at, they would be named, their universities contacted and their degrees withdrawn.

    For example, they claim at one point that Sweden's death rate went down during the pandemic.
    I've seen it claimed of Denmark, and it's not entirely crazy.

    All the "wash your hands and stay indoors (thank you baked potato)" stuff cut deaths from other infections. So if a county kept COVID deaths right down, it's conceivable that they could end up ahead overall.
    And not just infections. People are also less likely to be involved in accidents or altercations if they are indoors.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,072
    @estwebber

    New: "Without their reputation for economic competence, what's left as a reason for people to choose the Conservatives?"

    Why Sunak's mortgage bind is an all-round nightmare, with @izakaminska

    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1671789619329875968
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313
    The data looks like more evidence for UNS, the model that no-one knows why it works. I don’t believe Kellner’s hypothesis that floating voters are magically spread evenly over the country despite every other type of voter being geographically concentrated.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,083
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.
    The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than Hunt
    Rubbish - membership maybe
    No see also the 2019 European elections when Farage's party got 30% to just 9% for May's more One Nation, less hard Brexit Tories
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,072
    Stuartinromford said:

    Farage certainly won't get (m)any seats, but what he can do is stop Rishi's Conservatives in a lot of constituencies.

    And, if we are following the Canada playbook, we could end up a Reformed Conservative Party, which I wouldn't like at all.

    There would be certain degree of irony if the current Tory Party that tried to absorb the Faragists ends up being destroyed by them.

    Oh well...
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,207
    DavidL said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Just listened to Reeves on Today

    She didn't say "Tory mortgage penalty" once

    She appears to believe that the energy company windfall tax will solve inflation by both reducing energy bills and paying for public sector pay rises which won't be inflationary

    BP and Shell are amongst the worse performers in the FTSE 100 this year. Where are these super profits she is going to tax? Already spent.
    That general election list of options in full:

    CON - absolutely useless, no idea what they are doing, complete meltdown

    LAB - no credible policies, windfall tax cannot cover everything

    LD - want the state to pay people's mortgages, enough said

    👿👿👿
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,080
    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    londonpubman said:

    No one likes it that CPI is out of control.

    Everyone unhappy with the Government

    Rishi + Hunt + Bank of England = useless

    Clinton's mantra remains true - it's the economy, stupid.
    And his advisor Carvell's observation, that if he was reincarnated he would want to come back as the bond market because it controls everything.
    Hat tip please! I posted that as a reply to your post on the last thread

    (It’s intimidate not control though)
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,462
    Benpointer said:

    londonpubman said:

    No one likes it that CPI is out of control.

    Everyone unhappy with the Government

    Rishi + Hunt + Bank of England = useless

    Clinton's mantra remains true - it's the economy, stupid.
    Yeah, the Tories were polling really well before inflation took off. NOT.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,072
    @benglaze

    EXCL: Just one in five #Brexit voters thinks it's going well as anniversary looms, shows poll for @UKandEU

    https://twitter.com/benglaze/status/1671654479094247426
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,341
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.
    The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than Hunt
    Rubbish - membership maybe
    No see also the 2019 European elections when Farage's party got 30% to just 9% for May's more One Nation, less hard Brexit Tories
    You really are desperate if you have to refer to the 2019 European elections which was light years away from today in politics
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,575
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Just listened to Reeves on Today

    She didn't say "Tory mortgage penalty" once

    She appears to believe that the energy company windfall tax will solve inflation by both reducing energy bills and paying for public sector pay rises which won't be inflationary

    TBF (and I think Reeves is a slightly weak link in Labour's armour) she avoided on the whole the suggestion that there were quick fixes to inflation. or anything else. The general Labour approach of avoiding the quick fix seems to me commendable, but of course taken beyond a certain point would be electorally tricky when not very bright voters are faced with quackery from all sides.

    Everyone is asking what Labour's solution is to X, Y and Z; but even the cleverest of commentators are not suggesting from which range of workable solutions they might select a few. They are actually inviting unicorns and magic.

    labour's real offer is that they are not the Tories and offer a possibility of greater integrity and competence. Good luck with all that.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,270
    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.
    The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than Hunt
    I don't believe we have an appetite for right wing extremism in this country.

    The Conservative Party as it stands is an unhappy coalition of right wing populists and One Nation Tories. There is a much bigger voter base for a party of One Nation Tories to tap into. Butskellism lives!
  • Options
    sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 133
    On Today Amol Rajan was interviewing Cleverly about Ukraine and he suddenly switched to the economy and inflation. Oh dear! Then Robinson cruelly played it back after the interview with Reeves. Nasty bullies.... I bet they giggle at his name as well.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,207
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @steve_hawkes

    You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.

    Some potential levers :.

    1) Longer term mortgages. Nationwide I believe offer the longest right now - Hunt could encourage other banks to offer long terms.
    2) 99 year heritable mortgages - a more extreme version of 1), done in Japan I think.
    3) Encourage banks to offer long term fixes (30 yr ?) - as happens in the USA. This way there's no shock for anyone midway through.

    Those would all be free for the Gov't, and of course it won't help the poor schmucks who can barely afford their interest only as it is ( I think theres still some about that were offered at the bottom of the rates cycle o_O !!! )
    I believe there are some discussions to encourage lenders to offer longer terms and interest only arrangements. Short term relief only of course for borrowers, ultimately this will cost them much more.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,856
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.
    The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than Hunt
    Rubbish - membership maybe
    No see also the 2019 European elections when Farage's party got 30% to just 9% for May's more One Nation, less hard Brexit Tories
    You really are desperate if you have to refer to the 2019 European elections which was light years away from today in politics
    Won't be long before he starts referring to the 1119 election.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,218
    On the basis that every Tory has had 15 minutes of being touted as the next leader of Conservative leader because every option is crap, I believe a couple of PBers have suggested James Cleverly. He was just on R4 being eviscerated by Amol Rajan, his answer to Rajan's repeated q on what the PM was going to do about the looming mortgage crisis was gabbling about apprenticeships.

    I hope no one has money on.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,856
    Theuniondivvie said:

    On the basis that every Tory has had 15 minutes of being touted as the next leader of Conservative leader because every option is crap, I believe a couple of PBers have suggested James Cleverly. He was just on R4 being eviscerated by Amol Rajan, his answer to Rajan's repeated q on what the PM was going to do about the looming mortgage crisis was gabbling about apprenticeships.

    I hope no one has money on.

    It does make a change from Jimmy Savile though.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,341
    .Sky reporting current 2 year fixed rate mortgage is 6.19%
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    edited June 2023
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Just listened to Reeves on Today

    She didn't say "Tory mortgage penalty" once

    She appears to believe that the energy company windfall tax will solve inflation by both reducing energy bills and paying for public sector pay rises which won't be inflationary

    Rachel Reeves is not competent. I have no idea why anyone rates her, everytime I hear her speak I think we are going to be in big trouble with people like her running things.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,856
    Scott_xP said:

    @estwebber

    New: "Without their reputation for economic competence, what's left as a reason for people to choose the Conservatives?"

    Why Sunak's mortgage bind is an all-round nightmare, with @izakaminska

    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1671789619329875968

    That's rather interesting, especially in the light of this

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/21/labour-rishi-sunak-rachel-reeves-mortgage-plan

    Which makes Labour seem distinctly sensible by comparison, certainly if Mr Sunak does another Eat Out and Catch The Covid-type scheme to favour houseowners
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,557
    sbjme19 said:

    On Today Amol Rajan was interviewing Cleverly about Ukraine and he suddenly switched to the economy and inflation. Oh dear! Then Robinson cruelly played it back after the interview with Reeves. Nasty bullies.... I bet they giggle at his name as well.

    I listened to the interview with Cleverly - around 7.50 on Today. I don't say this lightly, but it was the most excruciating thing I've ever heard from a leading politician. On inflation, he was completely lost for words and became a gibbering wreck - it was almost cruel. He couldn't string two words together, let alone a sentence.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Northern_Al said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Today Amol Rajan was interviewing Cleverly about Ukraine and he suddenly switched to the economy and inflation. Oh dear! Then Robinson cruelly played it back after the interview with Reeves. Nasty bullies.... I bet they giggle at his name as well.

    I listened to the interview with Cleverly - around 7.50 on Today. I don't say this lightly, but it was the most excruciating thing I've ever heard from a leading politician. On inflation, he was completely lost for words and became a gibbering wreck - it was almost cruel. He couldn't string two words together, let alone a sentence.
    Well the answer for inflation was to have more hawks on the MPC. Because we've had more than a year of wondering why the Bank of England has been so slow and timid when raising rates. Just think about the number of times Max has had a rant on here about it.
  • Options
    IcarusIcarus Posts: 907
    Banks will be making massive profits this year from raising borrowing rates faster than savings rates. No doubt they will hide these profits by increasing their provisions for bad loans. These provisions they can release gradually when no one is looking.

    Tax banks more and get the BoE to change the £800bn of QE to equity in the Bank - effectively reducing national debt by £800bn. Tax energy companies and use the money to reduce energy costs . - everything would look much better.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,072
    Northern_Al said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Today Amol Rajan was interviewing Cleverly about Ukraine and he suddenly switched to the economy and inflation. Oh dear! Then Robinson cruelly played it back after the interview with Reeves. Nasty bullies.... I bet they giggle at his name as well.

    I listened to the interview with Cleverly - around 7.50 on Today. I don't say this lightly, but it was the most excruciating thing I've ever heard from a leading politician. On inflation, he was completely lost for words and became a gibbering wreck - it was almost cruel. He couldn't string two words together, let alone a sentence.
    He wasn't any better on Sky
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,943
    londonpubman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @steve_hawkes

    You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.

    Some potential levers :.

    1) Longer term mortgages. Nationwide I believe offer the longest right now - Hunt could encourage other banks to offer long terms.
    2) 99 year heritable mortgages - a more extreme version of 1), done in Japan I think.
    3) Encourage banks to offer long term fixes (30 yr ?) - as happens in the USA. This way there's no shock for anyone midway through.

    Those would all be free for the Gov't, and of course it won't help the poor schmucks who can barely afford their interest only as it is ( I think theres still some about that were offered at the bottom of the rates cycle o_O !!! )
    I believe there are some discussions to encourage lenders to offer longer terms and interest only arrangements. Short term relief only of course for borrowers, ultimately this will cost them much more.
    I renew mid '25, little one will get her 30 free hours at nursery come that September though which will be a significant saving (She's 3, this is already in place not the new Gov't announced money) which can go into the mortgage. I could possibly extend the ultimate term a bit too.

    I should* hopefully be OK think banks need to look and see what they can do for each customer. Treat people as individuals ;)
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,014
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @steve_hawkes

    You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.

    Some potential levers :.

    1) Longer term mortgages. Nationwide I believe offer the longest right now - Hunt could encourage other banks to offer long terms.
    2) 99 year heritable mortgages - a more extreme version of 1), done in Japan I think.
    3) Encourage banks to offer long term fixes (30 yr ?) - as happens in the USA. This way there's no shock for anyone midway through.

    Those would all be free for the Gov't, and of course it won't help the poor schmucks who can barely afford their interest only as it is ( I think theres still some about that were offered at the bottom of the rates cycle o_O !!! )
    Our banks would set their long term mortgage rates high enough to ensure that, whatever happened, they would profit. This wouldn’t help borrowers.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,014
    It’s time for the Tories to hold their hands up and admit they’ve no idea how to sort the economy and say to Labour “Right, you have a go and see if you can do any better”.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,072
    It's days like this I miss the Downing Street briefing room that never was...
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,128
    HYUFD said:

    '@GoodwinMJ
    ·
    17h
    The old elite projected their social status through their wealth, estates & titles. The new elite project their status & distinguish themselves from the masses by preaching radical woke progressivism'

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1671518796559818757?s=20

    Goodwin is really disappearing ever deeper up his own backside.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,083
    edited June 2023
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.
    The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than Hunt
    Rubbish - membership maybe
    No see also the 2019 European elections when Farage's party got 30% to just 9% for May's more One Nation, less hard Brexit Tories
    You really are desperate if you have to refer to the 2019 European elections which was light years away from today in politics
    I voted Tory even in the 2019 European elections, I was one of the 9% as I believe you were too. However I also know the right in this country ie about 30% of the country is closer to Farage and IDS than Sunak and Cameron, just Sunak and Cameron are more likely to appeal to the 10-15% who can get the right to 35-40%+ to win. Boris was a rarity in appealing to both groups in 2019
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    Stuartinromford said:

    ydoethur said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Damn statistics just ganging up on the UK now.


    I suggest you take an actual look at the statistics and how they were used.

    Put it this way, if those journalists put it forward for peer review they would not be laughed at, they would be named, their universities contacted and their degrees withdrawn.

    For example, they claim at one point that Sweden's death rate went down during the pandemic.
    I've seen it claimed of Denmark, and it's not entirely crazy.

    All the "wash your hands and stay indoors (thank you baked potato)" stuff cut deaths from other infections. So if a county kept COVID deaths right down, it's conceivable that they could end up ahead overall.
    No, that would not be crazy.

    But that is not the way they were manipulating their data either.
  • Options
    MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @estwebber

    New: "Without their reputation for economic competence, what's left as a reason for people to choose the Conservatives?"

    Why Sunak's mortgage bind is an all-round nightmare, with @izakaminska

    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1671789619329875968

    That's rather interesting, especially in the light of this

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/21/labour-rishi-sunak-rachel-reeves-mortgage-plan

    Which makes Labour seem distinctly sensible by comparison, certainly if Mr Sunak does another Eat Out and Catch The Covid-type scheme to favour houseowners
    There's a story in some novel about a young English bloke living in the far East who feeds the wild monkeys every morning on his way to work. One day he doesn't have any food for them and they tear him to pieces in rage. That's Rishi, that is.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,856
    edited June 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    It's days like this I miss the Downing Street briefing room that never was...

    It did contribute to the political life of the nation, with the Allegra Stratton practice press conference, though.

    Otherwise very much a Boris Bridge, as you say.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,083
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.
    The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than Hunt
    I don't believe we have an appetite for right wing extremism in this country.

    The Conservative Party as it stands is an unhappy coalition of right wing populists and One Nation Tories. There is a much bigger voter base for a party of One Nation Tories to tap into. Butskellism lives!
    Heathism over Thatcherism in other words. In reality only if Labour returns to the Corbynite left, otherwise swing voters won't switch from a more centrist Labour party unless a Labour government mucks up the economy whether the Tories are Thatcherite or Heathite
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.
    The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than Hunt
    Rubbish - membership maybe
    No see also the 2019 European elections when Farage's party got 30% to just 9% for May's more One Nation, less hard Brexit Tories
    You really are desperate if you have to refer to the 2019 European elections which was light years away from today in politics
    I voted Tory even in the 2019 European elections, I was one of the 9% as I believe you were too. However I also know the right in this country ie about 30% of the country is closer to Farage than Sunak and Cameron, just Sunak and Cameron are more likely to appeal to the 10-15% who can get the right to 40-45% to win
    Considering the Tories are currently polling about 28% in the polls, to say that 30% are so far to the right that they're closer to Farage than to Sunak - who is hardly a left-wing Tory - is absolutely ludicrous.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,943
    edited June 2023
    Fairliered said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @steve_hawkes

    You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.

    Some potential levers :.

    1) Longer term mortgages. Nationwide I believe offer the longest right now - Hunt could encourage other banks to offer long terms.
    2) 99 year heritable mortgages - a more extreme version of 1), done in Japan I think.
    3) Encourage banks to offer long term fixes (30 yr ?) - as happens in the USA. This way there's no shock for anyone midway through.

    Those would all be free for the Gov't, and of course it won't help the poor schmucks who can barely afford their interest only as it is ( I think theres still some about that were offered at the bottom of the rates cycle o_O !!! )
    Our banks would set their long term mortgage rates high enough to ensure that, whatever happened, they would profit. This wouldn’t help borrowers.
    The banks could (Or should) buy 30 year gilts to set the long term price with 3). I've had the sense through my (re)mortgaging life that UK banks aren't particularly profiteering with mortgages - if they are it's in the "fee" element. Which tends to be a fixed £1-£2k a pop; they'll be losing money on older mortgages such as my 2020 renewal right now.

    On the current accounts you can switch for £200 to a few providers now. And for people with more money more providers are offering higher rates. As with everything loyalty won't pay.
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,239
    glw said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Just listened to Reeves on Today

    She didn't say "Tory mortgage penalty" once

    She appears to believe that the energy company windfall tax will solve inflation by both reducing energy bills and paying for public sector pay rises which won't be inflationary

    Rachel Reeves is not competent. I have no idea why anyone rates her, everytime I hear her speak I think we are going to be in big trouble with people like her running things.
    "!What? Compared to the current lot? Its got to be worth a try!"- 90% of British voters.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,270
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.
    The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than Hunt
    Rubbish - membership maybe
    No see also the 2019 European elections when Farage's party got 30% to just 9% for May's more One Nation, less hard Brexit Tories
    You really are desperate if you have to refer to the 2019 European elections which was light years away from today in politics
    I voted Tory even in the 2019 European elections, I was one of the 9% as I believe you were too. However I also know the right in this country ie about 30% of the country is closer to Farage and IDS than Sunak and Cameron, just Sunak and Cameron are more likely to appeal to the 10-15% who can get the right to 35-40%+ to win. Boris was a rarity in appealing to both groups in 2019
    You are simply voting for a name. You have no idea what that name now stands for. It certainly doesn't stand for the values of the Conservative Party you joined.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,083
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.
    The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than Hunt
    Rubbish - membership maybe
    No see also the 2019 European elections when Farage's party got 30% to just 9% for May's more One Nation, less hard Brexit Tories
    You really are desperate if you have to refer to the 2019 European elections which was light years away from today in politics
    I voted Tory even in the 2019 European elections, I was one of the 9% as I believe you were too. However I also know the right in this country ie about 30% of the country is closer to Farage than Sunak and Cameron, just Sunak and Cameron are more likely to appeal to the 10-15% who can get the right to 40-45% to win
    Considering the Tories are currently polling about 28% in the polls, to say that 30% are so far to the right that they're closer to Farage than to Sunak - who is hardly a left-wing Tory - is absolutely ludicrous.
    Add RefUK to the Sunak Tories and you get over 30%. Farage of course won 30% in the 2019 European elections.

    If Farage was Conservative leader they would probably be polling 30-35% now. Sunak's problem is he has lost most swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs but is also leaking voters to his right to RefUK.

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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,270
    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.

    Another Brexit dividend.

    The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.

    Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.
    The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than Hunt
    I don't believe we have an appetite for right wing extremism in this country.

    The Conservative Party as it stands is an unhappy coalition of right wing populists and One Nation Tories. There is a much bigger voter base for a party of One Nation Tories to tap into. Butskellism lives!
    Heathism over Thatcherism in other words. In reality only if Labour returns to the Corbynite left, otherwise swing voters won't switch from a more centrist Labour party unless a Labour government mucks up the economy whether the Tories are Thatcherite or Heathite
    Yes they will.

    Have you not heard of the Post-War (pre-Thatcher) Consensus?
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