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New YouGov polling finds Tory collapse in its its heartlands – politicalbetting.com
New YouGov polling finds Tory collapse in its its heartlands – politicalbetting.com
That the Tory collapse is pretty uniform across cities, towns and villages will worry No10. Means fighting on all fronts. Not many MPs free to go and help colleagues. More on @TimesRadio from 11am pic.twitter.com/CR2Uy47pw9
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Everyone unhappy with the Government
Rishi + Hunt + Bank of England = useless
Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas overall even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years. The chart showing the Tories winning urban areas in 2019 I suspect includes the suburbs not just inner cities
Can't argue with this:
7 years on from Brexit, it's objectively clear - except to a narrow band of ideological die-hards - that Brexit has been a total and utter disaster. There is no risk any EU member state will look/is aiming to copy cat what the UK has done
How long is the queue of Brexit imitators?
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.
Oh...
The bigger question is just how high interest rates will be over the next few years and how long repossessions, negative equity, and falling house prices are a feature of our economy
In the 1990s it was the best part of 4 to 5 years before prices started to recover
By charting changing voting intentions from January 2020 to now, the tracker allows you to monitor the evolving picture as we head towards the next general election.
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-poll-tracker-how-are-political-parties-performing-as-an-election-looms-12903488
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1671617461303533568
Hear there were some serious truth bombs at the 1922 Committee in address by @FrankLuntz
to Tory MPs.
Said anyone with a 15k or less majority is "at this moment in time" under threat of losing their seat - added: "this is what CCHQ are not telling you."
METTHs = Middle England Towns and Their Hinterlands
NEW
Former Bank of Eng Dep Governor Charlie Bean to on Today:
“It’s pretty clear that our inflation problem is a bit worse than elsewhere”…
Points to post-pandemic labour market losing 500k workers, and then Brexit making access to workers “less elastic”
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1671779233083916288
What's missing is someone further to the right hoovering up votes the Conservatives would like to count on.
In other words, Conservative survival depends on one man...
Sorry if you were still enjoying your breakfast.
She didn't say "Tory mortgage penalty" once
She appears to believe that the energy company windfall tax will solve inflation by both reducing energy bills and paying for public sector pay rises which won't be inflationary
What has happened to the 8% or am I missing something?
Bound to be less responsive.
Put it this way, if those journalists put it forward for peer review they would not be laughed at, they would be named, their universities contacted and their degrees withdrawn.
For example, they claim at one point that Sweden's death rate went down during the pandemic.
Of people who say economy worse now than a year ago (and clear majority do) these are the reasons they give.
Brexit cutting through despite no Westminster party talking much about it in this (or any other) context.
There is, of course, a tipping point where large slews of seats come into play and no one would claim the Tories are anywhere near a good place but at least the pain is being shared around.
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17h
The old elite projected their social status through their wealth, estates & titles. The new elite project their status & distinguish themselves from the masses by preaching radical woke progressivism'
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1671518796559818757?s=20
We like to show our elitism with our wealth and laughing at peasants who voted for Brexit.
Just because you like the name "Conservative" and agree with what that once stood for doesn't mean it's current iteration is fit for purpose.
The Conservatives regrouping behind Braverman or Badenoch whilst hoping that Labour will be unable to turn the ship around would be horrendous news for the country.
The obvious response is not to repeat it in 24 but is that even remotely politically possible
It would be good to see Sunak and Hunt cancel the triple lock for 24
You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/21/aristocrat-forced-to-open-part-of-estate-to-public-after-council-ruling
So the government is bound to do it.
All the "wash your hands and stay indoors (thank you baked potato)" stuff cut deaths from other infections. So if a county kept COVID deaths right down, it's conceivable that they could end up ahead overall.
On Ukraine you feel that there are some grown-up conversations behind the scenes to ensure alignment to a sensible policy. If only the same could apply to the economy.
TSE's hero Osborne basically ruined the economy with that triple lock.
So the Tory party are bound to do it.
Brexit an ‘economic disaster’ for trade between UK and Germany, warn economists (ministers refusing to acknowledge this...)
https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1671788109724364800
Recent trends have indicated that few political parties take their first term in opposition as an indication they should be more moderate though. They usually double down on the stuff that got them thrown out in the first place.
And, if we are following the Canada playbook, we could end up a Reformed Conservative Party, which I wouldn't like at all.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election
The right in Canada only returned to power in 2006 under FPTP after the Tories and Reform's successor party the Canadian Alliance merged in 2003 to form the Conservative Party of Canada
We need a sensible right of centre party fit for Government. I don't believe the mechanics of turning the Conservative Party into its Heath/Butler iteration now exists. The current Conservative Party is the party of Enoch Powell and Peter Griffiths.
1) Longer term mortgages. Nationwide I believe offer the longest right now - Hunt could encourage other banks to offer long terms.
2) 99 year heritable mortgages - a more extreme version of 1), done in Japan I think.
3) Encourage banks to offer long term fixes (30 yr ?) - as happens in the USA. This way there's no shock for anyone midway through.
Those would all be free for the Gov't, and of course it won't help the poor schmucks who can barely afford their interest only as it is ( I think theres still some about that were offered at the bottom of the rates cycle o_O !!! )
New: "Without their reputation for economic competence, what's left as a reason for people to choose the Conservatives?"
Why Sunak's mortgage bind is an all-round nightmare, with @izakaminska
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1671789619329875968
Oh well...
CON - absolutely useless, no idea what they are doing, complete meltdown
LAB - no credible policies, windfall tax cannot cover everything
LD - want the state to pay people's mortgages, enough said
👿👿👿
(It’s intimidate not control though)
EXCL: Just one in five #Brexit voters thinks it's going well as anniversary looms, shows poll for @UKandEU
https://twitter.com/benglaze/status/1671654479094247426
Everyone is asking what Labour's solution is to X, Y and Z; but even the cleverest of commentators are not suggesting from which range of workable solutions they might select a few. They are actually inviting unicorns and magic.
labour's real offer is that they are not the Tories and offer a possibility of greater integrity and competence. Good luck with all that.
The Conservative Party as it stands is an unhappy coalition of right wing populists and One Nation Tories. There is a much bigger voter base for a party of One Nation Tories to tap into. Butskellism lives!
I hope no one has money on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/21/labour-rishi-sunak-rachel-reeves-mortgage-plan
Which makes Labour seem distinctly sensible by comparison, certainly if Mr Sunak does another Eat Out and Catch The Covid-type scheme to favour houseowners
Tax banks more and get the BoE to change the £800bn of QE to equity in the Bank - effectively reducing national debt by £800bn. Tax energy companies and use the money to reduce energy costs . - everything would look much better.
I should* hopefully be OK think banks need to look and see what they can do for each customer. Treat people as individuals
But that is not the way they were manipulating their data either.
Otherwise very much a Boris Bridge, as you say.
On the current accounts you can switch for £200 to a few providers now. And for people with more money more providers are offering higher rates. As with everything loyalty won't pay.
If Farage was Conservative leader they would probably be polling 30-35% now. Sunak's problem is he has lost most swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs but is also leaking voters to his right to RefUK.
Have you not heard of the Post-War (pre-Thatcher) Consensus?