New YouGov polling finds Tory collapse in its its heartlands – politicalbetting.com
That the Tory collapse is pretty uniform across cities, towns and villages will worry No10. Means fighting on all fronts. Not many MPs free to go and help colleagues. More on @TimesRadio from 11am pic.twitter.com/CR2Uy47pw9
Comments
-
First like Labour in rural areas (nearly).1
-
No one likes it that CPI is out of control.
Everyone unhappy with the Government
Rishi + Hunt + Bank of England = useless3 -
Clinton's mantra remains true - it's the economy, stupid.londonpubman said:No one likes it that CPI is out of control.
Everyone unhappy with the Government
Rishi + Hunt + Bank of England = useless1 -
Scheduled Musk Vs Zuckerberg cage match being reported on BBC 🙉0
-
So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.
Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas overall even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years. The chart showing the Tories winning urban areas in 2019 I suspect includes the suburbs not just inner cities0 -
Indeed LAB got close in many unlikely rural area 1997 2001 but generally fell short. Likely to be similar 2024. Looks near certain that LAB will win overall vote by at least 10%. 12% 43-31 in 1997?HYUFD said:So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.
Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years1 -
FPT:
Interesting thread, thanks.CarlottaVance said:Anyway, looking to the future:
I think there could be more space for flexibility and creativity in the EU's approach to the UK under a @UKLabour @Keir_Starmer Govt than most assume - and the EU's current “official position” suggests. Thread 1/
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1671766022703964160?s=20
Can't argue with this:
7 years on from Brexit, it's objectively clear - except to a narrow band of ideological die-hards - that Brexit has been a total and utter disaster. There is no risk any EU member state will look/is aiming to copy cat what the UK has done
How long is the queue of Brexit imitators?4 -
15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.3 -
Prepare for power ye diehard Tories!HYUFD said:So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.
Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas overall even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years. The chart showing the Tories winning urban areas in 2019 I suspect includes the suburbs not just inner cities0 -
Although they have the next 18 months of booming economy and low inflation to recover, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.
Oh...1 -
You are trying the make the best out of a dire polling position and fair play to your loyalties, but the truth is the conservative party is heading into opposition and labour will have a very workable majority in 24HYUFD said:So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.
Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years
The bigger question is just how high interest rates will be over the next few years and how long repossessions, negative equity, and falling house prices are a feature of our economy
In the 1990s it was the best part of 4 to 5 years before prices started to recover
2 -
The votes are probably more efficiently split for the yellows and reds too3
-
The live poll tracker from Sky News collates the results of opinion surveys carried out by all the main polling organisations - and allows you to see how the political parties are performing.
By charting changing voting intentions from January 2020 to now, the tracker allows you to monitor the evolving picture as we head towards the next general election.
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-poll-tracker-how-are-political-parties-performing-as-an-election-looms-129034880 -
If Labour win Rural seats the Tory party will be below 100 seats at the next election.HYUFD said:So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.
Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas overall even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years. The chart showing the Tories winning urban areas in 2019 I suspect includes the suburbs not just inner cities
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1671617461303533568
Hear there were some serious truth bombs at the 1922 Committee in address by @FrankLuntz
to Tory MPs.
Said anyone with a 15k or less majority is "at this moment in time" under threat of losing their seat - added: "this is what CCHQ are not telling you."0 -
... and your point is?HYUFD said:So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.
Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas overall even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years. The chart showing the Tories winning urban areas in 2019 I suspect includes the suburbs not just inner cities0 -
Looks to me like the largest swing is in the "Towns and their hinterlands" - i.e. the METTHs of PB lore, which were once identified as containing the swing seats in UK general elections. That's the worst possible outcome for the Tories.
METTHs = Middle England Towns and Their Hinterlands2 -
And his advisor Carvell's observation, that if he was reincarnated he would want to come back as the bond market because it controls everything.Benpointer said:
Clinton's mantra remains true - it's the economy, stupid.londonpubman said:No one likes it that CPI is out of control.
Everyone unhappy with the Government
Rishi + Hunt + Bank of England = useless0 -
@faisalislam
NEW
Former Bank of Eng Dep Governor Charlie Bean to on Today:
“It’s pretty clear that our inflation problem is a bit worse than elsewhere”…
Points to post-pandemic labour market losing 500k workers, and then Brexit making access to workers “less elastic”
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/16717792330839162880 -
Not sure why CCHQ need to tell them - they must know from their constituentseek said:
If Labour win Rural seats the Tory party will be below 100 seats at the next election.HYUFD said:So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.
Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas overall even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years. The chart showing the Tories winning urban areas in 2019 I suspect includes the suburbs not just inner cities
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1671617461303533568
Hear there were some serious truth bombs at the 1922 Committee in address by @FrankLuntz
to Tory MPs.
Said anyone with a 15k or less majority is "at this moment in time" under threat of losing their seat - added: "this is what CCHQ are not telling you."0 -
Haven’t had a Brexiteer gleefully rubbing their hands over the next country to leave the EU for months. Possibly never again?Benpointer said:FPT:
Interesting thread, thanks.CarlottaVance said:Anyway, looking to the future:
I think there could be more space for flexibility and creativity in the EU's approach to the UK under a @UKLabour @Keir_Starmer Govt than most assume - and the EU's current “official position” suggests. Thread 1/
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1671766022703964160?s=20
Can't argue with this:
7 years on from Brexit, it's objectively clear - except to a narrow band of ideological die-hards - that Brexit has been a total and utter disaster. There is no risk any EU member state will look/is aiming to copy cat what the UK has done
How long is the queue of Brexit imitators?0 -
Except we have established that net migration reached a new peak last year at over 600k. Some left after Brexit but many more came from around the world. Our labour market remains remarkably elastic. What we are not getting is productivity growth that can drive down prices. Poor productivity + higher wages, specifically increases in the NMW, = inflation. QED.Scott_xP said:@faisalislam
NEW
Former Bank of Eng Dep Governor Charlie Bean to on Today:
“It’s pretty clear that our inflation problem is a bit worse than elsewhere”…
Points to post-pandemic labour market losing 500k workers, and then Brexit making access to workers “less elastic”
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/16717792330839162886 -
Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.2 -
Not quite yet, though a lot of the pieces are falling into place.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.
What's missing is someone further to the right hoovering up votes the Conservatives would like to count on.
In other words, Conservative survival depends on one man...
Sorry if you were still enjoying your breakfast.
1 -
Damn statistics just ganging up on the UK now.
0 -
Just listened to Reeves on Today
She didn't say "Tory mortgage penalty" once
She appears to believe that the energy company windfall tax will solve inflation by both reducing energy bills and paying for public sector pay rises which won't be inflationary0 -
On the poll the conservative share has fallen by 19% and labour has risen by 11% with the lib dems static
What has happened to the 8% or am I missing something?0 -
We've replaced workers who could just come and go with workers who come from further and need supporting paperwork.DavidL said:
Except we have established that net migration reached a new peak last year at over 600k. Some left after Brexit but many more came from around the world. Our labour market remains remarkably elastic. What we are not getting is productivity growth that can drive down prices. Poor productivity + higher wages, specifically increases in the NMW, = inflation. QED.Scott_xP said:@faisalislam
NEW
Former Bank of Eng Dep Governor Charlie Bean to on Today:
“It’s pretty clear that our inflation problem is a bit worse than elsewhere”…
Points to post-pandemic labour market losing 500k workers, and then Brexit making access to workers “less elastic”
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1671779233083916288
Bound to be less responsive.0 -
I suggest you take an actual look at the statistics and how they were used.Theuniondivvie said:Damn statistics just ganging up on the UK now.
Put it this way, if those journalists put it forward for peer review they would not be laughed at, they would be named, their universities contacted and their degrees withdrawn.
For example, they claim at one point that Sweden's death rate went down during the pandemic.2 -
@rafaelbehr
Of people who say economy worse now than a year ago (and clear majority do) these are the reasons they give.
Brexit cutting through despite no Westminster party talking much about it in this (or any other) context.
1 -
Possibly because I am feeling contrary this morning I would argue that this is potentially good news for the Tories in that many of their safe seats will become less so without necessarily costing that many seats. This makes their vote more efficient and less catastrophic than would be the case if the loss of support was all in their more marginal seats.
There is, of course, a tipping point where large slews of seats come into play and no one would claim the Tories are anywhere near a good place but at least the pain is being shared around.1 -
'@GoodwinMJ
·
17h
The old elite projected their social status through their wealth, estates & titles. The new elite project their status & distinguish themselves from the masses by preaching radical woke progressivism'
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1671518796559818757?s=200 -
Greens and RefUK, I suspect.Big_G_NorthWales said:On the poll the conservative share has fallen by 19% and labour has risen by 11% with the lib dems static
What has happened to the 8% or am I missing something?0 -
That is such bullshit from Matt Goodwin.HYUFD said:'@GoodwinMJ
·
17h
The old elite projected their social status through their wealth, estates & titles. The new elite project their status & distinguish themselves from the masses by preaching radical woke progressivism'
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1671518796559818757?s=20
We like to show our elitism with our wealth and laughing at peasants who voted for Brexit.4 -
The Conservative Party needs to be routed.DavidL said:Possibly because I am feeling contrary this morning I would argue that this is potentially good news for the Tories in that many of their safe seats will become less so without necessarily costing that many seats. This makes their vote more efficient and less catastrophic than would be the case if the loss of support was all in their more marginal seats.
There is, of course, a tipping point where large slews of seats come into play and no one would claim the Tories are anywhere near a good place but at least the pain is being shared around.
Just because you like the name "Conservative" and agree with what that once stood for doesn't mean it's current iteration is fit for purpose.
The Conservatives regrouping behind Braverman or Badenoch whilst hoping that Labour will be unable to turn the ship around would be horrendous news for the country.0 -
Even if Labour and the LDs won almost all seats with a majority of 15k or less the Conservatives would still have over 100 seats (and they will retain some of them). Most rural seats would also stay Toryeek said:
If Labour win Rural seats the Tory party will be below 100 seats at the next election.HYUFD said:So the Tories still lead Labour by 2% in rural areas with Yougov then even despite trailing Labour by 16% overall in the latest Yougov UK wide poll.
Labour may be closer there but they won't win rural areas just as they failed to in 1997 and 2001 despite big wins nationally and just as the Conservatives failed to win inner city areas overall even in 1983, 1987 or 2019, their biggest wins in the last 50 years. The chart showing the Tories winning urban areas in 2019 I suspect includes the suburbs not just inner cities
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1671617461303533568
Hear there were some serious truth bombs at the 1922 Committee in address by @FrankLuntz
to Tory MPs.
Said anyone with a 15k or less majority is "at this moment in time" under threat of losing their seat - added: "this is what CCHQ are not telling you."0 -
Some independent commentators are suggesting the cost of the triple lock upgrade with the same upgrade to benefits plus the rise in the national living wage and private sector pay awards above 7% have all added to inflationary pressure
The obvious response is not to repeat it in 24 but is that even remotely politically possible
It would be good to see Sunak and Hunt cancel the triple lock for 24
0 -
RefUK are already on 5-7% in most polls but FPTP means they won't get much higher, under PR they could be neck and neck with the Tories or even overtake them if Farage led them again, as populist right parties in Italy and France have overtaken the centre right partyStuartinromford said:
Not quite yet, though a lot of the pieces are falling into place.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.
What's missing is someone further to the right hoovering up votes the Conservatives would like to count on.
In other words, Conservative survival depends on one man...
Sorry if you were still enjoying your breakfast.0 -
@steve_hawkes
You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.0 -
As for the old aristocracy, too (the 'real' lords, fide HYUFD, not the parvenus infesting Westminster), I see they are too busy being difficult about access to common land.TheScreamingEagles said:
That is such bullshit from Matt Goodwin.HYUFD said:'@GoodwinMJ
·
17h
The old elite projected their social status through their wealth, estates & titles. The new elite project their status & distinguish themselves from the masses by preaching radical woke progressivism'
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1671518796559818757?s=20
We like to show our elitism with our wealth and laughing at peasants who voted for Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/21/aristocrat-forced-to-open-part-of-estate-to-public-after-council-ruling
0 -
That would be so regressive.Scott_xP said:@steve_hawkes
You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.
So the government is bound to do it.0 -
The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than HuntMexicanpete said:
Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.0 -
I've seen it claimed of Denmark, and it's not entirely crazy.ydoethur said:
I suggest you take an actual look at the statistics and how they were used.Theuniondivvie said:Damn statistics just ganging up on the UK now.
Put it this way, if those journalists put it forward for peer review they would not be laughed at, they would be named, their universities contacted and their degrees withdrawn.
For example, they claim at one point that Sweden's death rate went down during the pandemic.
All the "wash your hands and stay indoors (thank you baked potato)" stuff cut deaths from other infections. So if a county kept COVID deaths right down, it's conceivable that they could end up ahead overall.0 -
There are very many one nation conservatives who do not associate with the ERG just as Labour have moved away from CorbynitesMexicanpete said:
The Conservative Party needs to be routed.DavidL said:Possibly because I am feeling contrary this morning I would argue that this is potentially good news for the Tories in that many of their safe seats will become less so without necessarily costing that many seats. This makes their vote more efficient and less catastrophic than would be the case if the loss of support was all in their more marginal seats.
There is, of course, a tipping point where large slews of seats come into play and no one would claim the Tories are anywhere near a good place but at least the pain is being shared around.
Just because you like the name "Conservative" and agree with what that once stood for doesn't mean it's current iteration is fit for purpose.
The Conservatives regrouping behind Braverman or Badenoch whilst hoping that Labour will be unable to turn the ship around would be horrendous news for the country.-1 -
SNP talking plenty on Brexit. e.g. PMQ the other day.Scott_xP said:@rafaelbehr
Of people who say economy worse now than a year ago (and clear majority do) these are the reasons they give.
Brexit cutting through despite no Westminster party talking much about it in this (or any other) context.0 -
Which will just lead to ultra inflation central and big big interest rates, and ultimately complete economic meltdown 😡Scott_xP said:@steve_hawkes
You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.1 -
Agreed. Starmer also needs to buy in.Big_G_NorthWales said:Some independent commentators are suggesting the cost of the triple lock upgrade with the same upgrade to benefits plus the rise in the national living wage and private sector pay awards above 7% have all added to inflationary pressure
The obvious response is not to repeat it in 24 but is that even remotely politically possible
It would be good to see Sunak and Hunt cancel the triple lock for 24
On Ukraine you feel that there are some grown-up conversations behind the scenes to ensure alignment to a sensible policy. If only the same could apply to the economy.
TSE's hero Osborne basically ruined the economy with that triple lock.0 -
It would be the stupidest thing to do. helps only limited people and inflationary.TheScreamingEagles said:
That would be so regressive.Scott_xP said:@steve_hawkes
You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.
So the government is bound to do it.
So the Tory party are bound to do it.0 -
Rubbish - membership maybeHYUFD said:
The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than HuntMexicanpete said:
Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.0 -
@nicholascecil
Brexit an ‘economic disaster’ for trade between UK and Germany, warn economists (ministers refusing to acknowledge this...)
https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/16717881097243648000 -
Oh, is that another of those specialist sexual perversions such as Turkish conscripts I only ever hear about on PB?TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.0 -
What utter nonsense. In the overall scheme of things, the triple lock.is peanutsBenpointer said:
Agreed. Starmer also needs to buy in.Big_G_NorthWales said:Some independent commentators are suggesting the cost of the triple lock upgrade with the same upgrade to benefits plus the rise in the national living wage and private sector pay awards above 7% have all added to inflationary pressure
The obvious response is not to repeat it in 24 but is that even remotely politically possible
It would be good to see Sunak and Hunt cancel the triple lock for 24
On Ukraine you feel that there are some grown-up conversations behind the scenes to ensure alignment to a sensible policy. If only the same could apply to the economy.
TSE's hero Osborne basically ruined the economy with that triple lock.0 -
I could not vote for a Tory party led by the likes of Braverman. It appals me she is even in the cabinet, especially in her current role. Badenoch maybe (she has been a lot less loud on the culture wars than I feared) but I remain a Cameroon and would very much welcome a step back to one nationism (if that is a word).Mexicanpete said:
The Conservative Party needs to be routed.DavidL said:Possibly because I am feeling contrary this morning I would argue that this is potentially good news for the Tories in that many of their safe seats will become less so without necessarily costing that many seats. This makes their vote more efficient and less catastrophic than would be the case if the loss of support was all in their more marginal seats.
There is, of course, a tipping point where large slews of seats come into play and no one would claim the Tories are anywhere near a good place but at least the pain is being shared around.
Just because you like the name "Conservative" and agree with what that once stood for doesn't mean it's current iteration is fit for purpose.
The Conservatives regrouping behind Braverman or Badenoch whilst hoping that Labour will be unable to turn the ship around would be horrendous news for the country.
Recent trends have indicated that few political parties take their first term in opposition as an indication they should be more moderate though. They usually double down on the stuff that got them thrown out in the first place.4 -
Also v. unfair to renters.eek said:
It would be the stupidest thing to do. helps only limited people and inflationary.TheScreamingEagles said:
That would be so regressive.Scott_xP said:@steve_hawkes
You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.
So the government is bound to do it.
So the Tory party are bound to do it.0 -
Farage certainly won't get (m)any seats, but what he can do is stop Rishi's Conservatives in a lot of constituencies.HYUFD said:
RefUK are already on 5-7% in most polls but FPTP means they won't get much higher, under PR they could be neck and neck with the Tories or even overtake them if Farage led them again, as populist right parties in Italy and France have overtaken the centre right partyStuartinromford said:
Not quite yet, though a lot of the pieces are falling into place.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.
What's missing is someone further to the right hoovering up votes the Conservatives would like to count on.
In other words, Conservative survival depends on one man...
Sorry if you were still enjoying your breakfast.
And, if we are following the Canada playbook, we could end up a Reformed Conservative Party, which I wouldn't like at all.0 -
No they aren't, they still lead in rural areas and are still much higher than the just 16% the Canadian Tories got in 1993, when not only did the Liberals win a landslide but the populist right Reform Party on 18% overtook the Progressive Conservatives as the main party of the Canadian right, winning 52 seats to just 2 for the Tories.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election
The right in Canada only returned to power in 2006 under FPTP after the Tories and Reform's successor party the Canadian Alliance merged in 2003 to form the Conservative Party of Canada0 -
Are there perchance 363 other loony economists also saying the same thing?Scott_xP said:@nicholascecil
Brexit an ‘economic disaster’ for trade between UK and Germany, warn economists (ministers refusing to acknowledge this...)
https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/16717881097243648000 -
BP and Shell are amongst the worse performers in the FTSE 100 this year. Where are these super profits she is going to tax? Already spent.BlancheLivermore said:Just listened to Reeves on Today
She didn't say "Tory mortgage penalty" once
She appears to believe that the energy company windfall tax will solve inflation by both reducing energy bills and paying for public sector pay rises which won't be inflationary1 -
But you have been marginalised in the same way New Labour were under Corbyn.Big_G_NorthWales said:
There are very many one nation Conservatives who do not associate with the ERG just as Labour have moved away from CorbynitesMexicanpete said:
The Conservative Party needs to be routed.DavidL said:Possibly because I am feeling contrary this morning I would argue that this is potentially good news for the Tories in that many of their safe seats will become less so without necessarily costing that many seats. This makes their vote more efficient and less catastrophic than would be the case if the loss of support was all in their more marginal seats.
There is, of course, a tipping point where large slews of seats come into play and no one would claim the Tories are anywhere near a good place but at least the pain is being shared around.
Just because you like the name "Conservative" and agree with what that once stood for doesn't mean it's current iteration is fit for purpose.
The Conservatives regrouping behind Braverman or Badenoch whilst hoping that Labour will be unable to turn the ship around would be horrendous news for the country.
We need a sensible right of centre party fit for Government. I don't believe the mechanics of turning the Conservative Party into its Heath/Butler iteration now exists. The current Conservative Party is the party of Enoch Powell and Peter Griffiths.1 -
Some potential levers :.Scott_xP said:@steve_hawkes
You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.
1) Longer term mortgages. Nationwide I believe offer the longest right now - Hunt could encourage other banks to offer long terms.
2) 99 year heritable mortgages - a more extreme version of 1), done in Japan I think.
3) Encourage banks to offer long term fixes (30 yr ?) - as happens in the USA. This way there's no shock for anyone midway through.
Those would all be free for the Gov't, and of course it won't help the poor schmucks who can barely afford their interest only as it is ( I think theres still some about that were offered at the bottom of the rates cycle o_O !!! )1 -
And not just infections. People are also less likely to be involved in accidents or altercations if they are indoors.Stuartinromford said:
I've seen it claimed of Denmark, and it's not entirely crazy.ydoethur said:
I suggest you take an actual look at the statistics and how they were used.Theuniondivvie said:Damn statistics just ganging up on the UK now.
Put it this way, if those journalists put it forward for peer review they would not be laughed at, they would be named, their universities contacted and their degrees withdrawn.
For example, they claim at one point that Sweden's death rate went down during the pandemic.
All the "wash your hands and stay indoors (thank you baked potato)" stuff cut deaths from other infections. So if a county kept COVID deaths right down, it's conceivable that they could end up ahead overall.1 -
@estwebber
New: "Without their reputation for economic competence, what's left as a reason for people to choose the Conservatives?"
Why Sunak's mortgage bind is an all-round nightmare, with @izakaminska
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/16717896193298759680 -
The data looks like more evidence for UNS, the model that no-one knows why it works. I don’t believe Kellner’s hypothesis that floating voters are magically spread evenly over the country despite every other type of voter being geographically concentrated.0
-
No see also the 2019 European elections when Farage's party got 30% to just 9% for May's more One Nation, less hard Brexit ToriesBig_G_NorthWales said:
Rubbish - membership maybeHYUFD said:
The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than HuntMexicanpete said:
Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.0 -
There would be certain degree of irony if the current Tory Party that tried to absorb the Faragists ends up being destroyed by them.Stuartinromford said:Farage certainly won't get (m)any seats, but what he can do is stop Rishi's Conservatives in a lot of constituencies.
And, if we are following the Canada playbook, we could end up a Reformed Conservative Party, which I wouldn't like at all.
Oh well...0 -
That general election list of options in full:DavidL said:
BP and Shell are amongst the worse performers in the FTSE 100 this year. Where are these super profits she is going to tax? Already spent.BlancheLivermore said:Just listened to Reeves on Today
She didn't say "Tory mortgage penalty" once
She appears to believe that the energy company windfall tax will solve inflation by both reducing energy bills and paying for public sector pay rises which won't be inflationary
CON - absolutely useless, no idea what they are doing, complete meltdown
LAB - no credible policies, windfall tax cannot cover everything
LD - want the state to pay people's mortgages, enough said
👿👿👿2 -
Hat tip please! I posted that as a reply to your post on the last threadDavidL said:
And his advisor Carvell's observation, that if he was reincarnated he would want to come back as the bond market because it controls everything.Benpointer said:
Clinton's mantra remains true - it's the economy, stupid.londonpubman said:No one likes it that CPI is out of control.
Everyone unhappy with the Government
Rishi + Hunt + Bank of England = useless
(It’s intimidate not control though)1 -
Yeah, the Tories were polling really well before inflation took off. NOT.Benpointer said:
Clinton's mantra remains true - it's the economy, stupid.londonpubman said:No one likes it that CPI is out of control.
Everyone unhappy with the Government
Rishi + Hunt + Bank of England = useless0 -
@benglaze
EXCL: Just one in five #Brexit voters thinks it's going well as anniversary looms, shows poll for @UKandEU
https://twitter.com/benglaze/status/16716544790942474261 -
You really are desperate if you have to refer to the 2019 European elections which was light years away from today in politicsHYUFD said:
No see also the 2019 European elections when Farage's party got 30% to just 9% for May's more One Nation, less hard Brexit ToriesBig_G_NorthWales said:
Rubbish - membership maybeHYUFD said:
The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than HuntMexicanpete said:
Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.2 -
TBF (and I think Reeves is a slightly weak link in Labour's armour) she avoided on the whole the suggestion that there were quick fixes to inflation. or anything else. The general Labour approach of avoiding the quick fix seems to me commendable, but of course taken beyond a certain point would be electorally tricky when not very bright voters are faced with quackery from all sides.BlancheLivermore said:Just listened to Reeves on Today
She didn't say "Tory mortgage penalty" once
She appears to believe that the energy company windfall tax will solve inflation by both reducing energy bills and paying for public sector pay rises which won't be inflationary
Everyone is asking what Labour's solution is to X, Y and Z; but even the cleverest of commentators are not suggesting from which range of workable solutions they might select a few. They are actually inviting unicorns and magic.
labour's real offer is that they are not the Tories and offer a possibility of greater integrity and competence. Good luck with all that.2 -
I don't believe we have an appetite for right wing extremism in this country.HYUFD said:
The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than HuntMexicanpete said:
Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.
The Conservative Party as it stands is an unhappy coalition of right wing populists and One Nation Tories. There is a much bigger voter base for a party of One Nation Tories to tap into. Butskellism lives!2 -
On Today Amol Rajan was interviewing Cleverly about Ukraine and he suddenly switched to the economy and inflation. Oh dear! Then Robinson cruelly played it back after the interview with Reeves. Nasty bullies.... I bet they giggle at his name as well.2
-
I believe there are some discussions to encourage lenders to offer longer terms and interest only arrangements. Short term relief only of course for borrowers, ultimately this will cost them much more.Pulpstar said:
Some potential levers :.Scott_xP said:@steve_hawkes
You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.
1) Longer term mortgages. Nationwide I believe offer the longest right now - Hunt could encourage other banks to offer long terms.
2) 99 year heritable mortgages - a more extreme version of 1), done in Japan I think.
3) Encourage banks to offer long term fixes (30 yr ?) - as happens in the USA. This way there's no shock for anyone midway through.
Those would all be free for the Gov't, and of course it won't help the poor schmucks who can barely afford their interest only as it is ( I think theres still some about that were offered at the bottom of the rates cycle o_O !!! )1 -
Won't be long before he starts referring to the 1119 election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You really are desperate if you have to refer to the 2019 European elections which was light years away from today in politicsHYUFD said:
No see also the 2019 European elections when Farage's party got 30% to just 9% for May's more One Nation, less hard Brexit ToriesBig_G_NorthWales said:
Rubbish - membership maybeHYUFD said:
The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than HuntMexicanpete said:
Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.1 -
On the basis that every Tory has had 15 minutes of being touted as the next leader of Conservative leader because every option is crap, I believe a couple of PBers have suggested James Cleverly. He was just on R4 being eviscerated by Amol Rajan, his answer to Rajan's repeated q on what the PM was going to do about the looming mortgage crisis was gabbling about apprenticeships.
I hope no one has money on.2 -
It does make a change from Jimmy Savile though.Theuniondivvie said:On the basis that every Tory has had 15 minutes of being touted as the next leader of Conservative leader because every option is crap, I believe a couple of PBers have suggested James Cleverly. He was just on R4 being eviscerated by Amol Rajan, his answer to Rajan's repeated q on what the PM was going to do about the looming mortgage crisis was gabbling about apprenticeships.
I hope no one has money on.0 -
.Sky reporting current 2 year fixed rate mortgage is 6.19%0
-
Rachel Reeves is not competent. I have no idea why anyone rates her, everytime I hear her speak I think we are going to be in big trouble with people like her running things.BlancheLivermore said:Just listened to Reeves on Today
She didn't say "Tory mortgage penalty" once
She appears to believe that the energy company windfall tax will solve inflation by both reducing energy bills and paying for public sector pay rises which won't be inflationary1 -
That's rather interesting, especially in the light of thisScott_xP said:@estwebber
New: "Without their reputation for economic competence, what's left as a reason for people to choose the Conservatives?"
Why Sunak's mortgage bind is an all-round nightmare, with @izakaminska
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1671789619329875968
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/21/labour-rishi-sunak-rachel-reeves-mortgage-plan
Which makes Labour seem distinctly sensible by comparison, certainly if Mr Sunak does another Eat Out and Catch The Covid-type scheme to favour houseowners0 -
I listened to the interview with Cleverly - around 7.50 on Today. I don't say this lightly, but it was the most excruciating thing I've ever heard from a leading politician. On inflation, he was completely lost for words and became a gibbering wreck - it was almost cruel. He couldn't string two words together, let alone a sentence.sbjme19 said:On Today Amol Rajan was interviewing Cleverly about Ukraine and he suddenly switched to the economy and inflation. Oh dear! Then Robinson cruelly played it back after the interview with Reeves. Nasty bullies.... I bet they giggle at his name as well.
1 -
Well the answer for inflation was to have more hawks on the MPC. Because we've had more than a year of wondering why the Bank of England has been so slow and timid when raising rates. Just think about the number of times Max has had a rant on here about it.Northern_Al said:
I listened to the interview with Cleverly - around 7.50 on Today. I don't say this lightly, but it was the most excruciating thing I've ever heard from a leading politician. On inflation, he was completely lost for words and became a gibbering wreck - it was almost cruel. He couldn't string two words together, let alone a sentence.sbjme19 said:On Today Amol Rajan was interviewing Cleverly about Ukraine and he suddenly switched to the economy and inflation. Oh dear! Then Robinson cruelly played it back after the interview with Reeves. Nasty bullies.... I bet they giggle at his name as well.
2 -
Banks will be making massive profits this year from raising borrowing rates faster than savings rates. No doubt they will hide these profits by increasing their provisions for bad loans. These provisions they can release gradually when no one is looking.
Tax banks more and get the BoE to change the £800bn of QE to equity in the Bank - effectively reducing national debt by £800bn. Tax energy companies and use the money to reduce energy costs . - everything would look much better.0 -
He wasn't any better on SkyNorthern_Al said:
I listened to the interview with Cleverly - around 7.50 on Today. I don't say this lightly, but it was the most excruciating thing I've ever heard from a leading politician. On inflation, he was completely lost for words and became a gibbering wreck - it was almost cruel. He couldn't string two words together, let alone a sentence.sbjme19 said:On Today Amol Rajan was interviewing Cleverly about Ukraine and he suddenly switched to the economy and inflation. Oh dear! Then Robinson cruelly played it back after the interview with Reeves. Nasty bullies.... I bet they giggle at his name as well.
1 -
I renew mid '25, little one will get her 30 free hours at nursery come that September though which will be a significant saving (She's 3, this is already in place not the new Gov't announced money) which can go into the mortgage. I could possibly extend the ultimate term a bit too.londonpubman said:
I believe there are some discussions to encourage lenders to offer longer terms and interest only arrangements. Short term relief only of course for borrowers, ultimately this will cost them much more.Pulpstar said:
Some potential levers :.Scott_xP said:@steve_hawkes
You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.
1) Longer term mortgages. Nationwide I believe offer the longest right now - Hunt could encourage other banks to offer long terms.
2) 99 year heritable mortgages - a more extreme version of 1), done in Japan I think.
3) Encourage banks to offer long term fixes (30 yr ?) - as happens in the USA. This way there's no shock for anyone midway through.
Those would all be free for the Gov't, and of course it won't help the poor schmucks who can barely afford their interest only as it is ( I think theres still some about that were offered at the bottom of the rates cycle o_O !!! )
I should* hopefully be OK think banks need to look and see what they can do for each customer. Treat people as individuals
2 -
Our banks would set their long term mortgage rates high enough to ensure that, whatever happened, they would profit. This wouldn’t help borrowers.Pulpstar said:
Some potential levers :.Scott_xP said:@steve_hawkes
You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.
1) Longer term mortgages. Nationwide I believe offer the longest right now - Hunt could encourage other banks to offer long terms.
2) 99 year heritable mortgages - a more extreme version of 1), done in Japan I think.
3) Encourage banks to offer long term fixes (30 yr ?) - as happens in the USA. This way there's no shock for anyone midway through.
Those would all be free for the Gov't, and of course it won't help the poor schmucks who can barely afford their interest only as it is ( I think theres still some about that were offered at the bottom of the rates cycle o_O !!! )
1 -
It’s time for the Tories to hold their hands up and admit they’ve no idea how to sort the economy and say to Labour “Right, you have a go and see if you can do any better”.1
-
It's days like this I miss the Downing Street briefing room that never was...0
-
Goodwin is really disappearing ever deeper up his own backside.HYUFD said:'@GoodwinMJ
·
17h
The old elite projected their social status through their wealth, estates & titles. The new elite project their status & distinguish themselves from the masses by preaching radical woke progressivism'
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1671518796559818757?s=201 -
I voted Tory even in the 2019 European elections, I was one of the 9% as I believe you were too. However I also know the right in this country ie about 30% of the country is closer to Farage and IDS than Sunak and Cameron, just Sunak and Cameron are more likely to appeal to the 10-15% who can get the right to 35-40%+ to win. Boris was a rarity in appealing to both groups in 2019Big_G_NorthWales said:
You really are desperate if you have to refer to the 2019 European elections which was light years away from today in politicsHYUFD said:
No see also the 2019 European elections when Farage's party got 30% to just 9% for May's more One Nation, less hard Brexit ToriesBig_G_NorthWales said:
Rubbish - membership maybeHYUFD said:
The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than HuntMexicanpete said:
Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.0 -
No, that would not be crazy.Stuartinromford said:
I've seen it claimed of Denmark, and it's not entirely crazy.ydoethur said:
I suggest you take an actual look at the statistics and how they were used.Theuniondivvie said:Damn statistics just ganging up on the UK now.
Put it this way, if those journalists put it forward for peer review they would not be laughed at, they would be named, their universities contacted and their degrees withdrawn.
For example, they claim at one point that Sweden's death rate went down during the pandemic.
All the "wash your hands and stay indoors (thank you baked potato)" stuff cut deaths from other infections. So if a county kept COVID deaths right down, it's conceivable that they could end up ahead overall.
But that is not the way they were manipulating their data either.0 -
There's a story in some novel about a young English bloke living in the far East who feeds the wild monkeys every morning on his way to work. One day he doesn't have any food for them and they tear him to pieces in rage. That's Rishi, that is.Carnyx said:
That's rather interesting, especially in the light of thisScott_xP said:@estwebber
New: "Without their reputation for economic competence, what's left as a reason for people to choose the Conservatives?"
Why Sunak's mortgage bind is an all-round nightmare, with @izakaminska
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1671789619329875968
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/21/labour-rishi-sunak-rachel-reeves-mortgage-plan
Which makes Labour seem distinctly sensible by comparison, certainly if Mr Sunak does another Eat Out and Catch The Covid-type scheme to favour houseowners3 -
Heathism over Thatcherism in other words. In reality only if Labour returns to the Corbynite left, otherwise swing voters won't switch from a more centrist Labour party unless a Labour government mucks up the economy whether the Tories are Thatcherite or HeathiteMexicanpete said:
I don't believe we have an appetite for right wing extremism in this country.HYUFD said:
The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than HuntMexicanpete said:
Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.
The Conservative Party as it stands is an unhappy coalition of right wing populists and One Nation Tories. There is a much bigger voter base for a party of One Nation Tories to tap into. Butskellism lives!0 -
Considering the Tories are currently polling about 28% in the polls, to say that 30% are so far to the right that they're closer to Farage than to Sunak - who is hardly a left-wing Tory - is absolutely ludicrous.HYUFD said:
I voted Tory even in the 2019 European elections, I was one of the 9% as I believe you were too. However I also know the right in this country ie about 30% of the country is closer to Farage than Sunak and Cameron, just Sunak and Cameron are more likely to appeal to the 10-15% who can get the right to 40-45% to winBig_G_NorthWales said:
You really are desperate if you have to refer to the 2019 European elections which was light years away from today in politicsHYUFD said:
No see also the 2019 European elections when Farage's party got 30% to just 9% for May's more One Nation, less hard Brexit ToriesBig_G_NorthWales said:
Rubbish - membership maybeHYUFD said:
The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than HuntMexicanpete said:
Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.0 -
The banks could (Or should) buy 30 year gilts to set the long term price with 3). I've had the sense through my (re)mortgaging life that UK banks aren't particularly profiteering with mortgages - if they are it's in the "fee" element. Which tends to be a fixed £1-£2k a pop; they'll be losing money on older mortgages such as my 2020 renewal right now.Fairliered said:
Our banks would set their long term mortgage rates high enough to ensure that, whatever happened, they would profit. This wouldn’t help borrowers.Pulpstar said:
Some potential levers :.Scott_xP said:@steve_hawkes
You do get the sense that - just like with energy bills - the Govt will ultimately cave to some degree on mortgages and come up with a support package of some kind.
1) Longer term mortgages. Nationwide I believe offer the longest right now - Hunt could encourage other banks to offer long terms.
2) 99 year heritable mortgages - a more extreme version of 1), done in Japan I think.
3) Encourage banks to offer long term fixes (30 yr ?) - as happens in the USA. This way there's no shock for anyone midway through.
Those would all be free for the Gov't, and of course it won't help the poor schmucks who can barely afford their interest only as it is ( I think theres still some about that were offered at the bottom of the rates cycle o_O !!! )
On the current accounts you can switch for £200 to a few providers now. And for people with more money more providers are offering higher rates. As with everything loyalty won't pay.0 -
"!What? Compared to the current lot? Its got to be worth a try!"- 90% of British voters.glw said:
Rachel Reeves is not competent. I have no idea why anyone rates her, everytime I hear her speak I think we are going to be in big trouble with people like her running things.BlancheLivermore said:Just listened to Reeves on Today
She didn't say "Tory mortgage penalty" once
She appears to believe that the energy company windfall tax will solve inflation by both reducing energy bills and paying for public sector pay rises which won't be inflationary0 -
You are simply voting for a name. You have no idea what that name now stands for. It certainly doesn't stand for the values of the Conservative Party you joined.HYUFD said:
I voted Tory even in the 2019 European elections, I was one of the 9% as I believe you were too. However I also know the right in this country ie about 30% of the country is closer to Farage and IDS than Sunak and Cameron, just Sunak and Cameron are more likely to appeal to the 10-15% who can get the right to 35-40%+ to win. Boris was a rarity in appealing to both groups in 2019Big_G_NorthWales said:
You really are desperate if you have to refer to the 2019 European elections which was light years away from today in politicsHYUFD said:
No see also the 2019 European elections when Farage's party got 30% to just 9% for May's more One Nation, less hard Brexit ToriesBig_G_NorthWales said:
Rubbish - membership maybeHYUFD said:
The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than HuntMexicanpete said:
Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.0 -
Add RefUK to the Sunak Tories and you get over 30%. Farage of course won 30% in the 2019 European elections.Chris said:
Considering the Tories are currently polling about 28% in the polls, to say that 30% are so far to the right that they're closer to Farage than to Sunak - who is hardly a left-wing Tory - is absolutely ludicrous.HYUFD said:
I voted Tory even in the 2019 European elections, I was one of the 9% as I believe you were too. However I also know the right in this country ie about 30% of the country is closer to Farage than Sunak and Cameron, just Sunak and Cameron are more likely to appeal to the 10-15% who can get the right to 40-45% to winBig_G_NorthWales said:
You really are desperate if you have to refer to the 2019 European elections which was light years away from today in politicsHYUFD said:
No see also the 2019 European elections when Farage's party got 30% to just 9% for May's more One Nation, less hard Brexit ToriesBig_G_NorthWales said:
Rubbish - membership maybeHYUFD said:
The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than HuntMexicanpete said:
Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.
If Farage was Conservative leader they would probably be polling 30-35% now. Sunak's problem is he has lost most swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs but is also leaking voters to his right to RefUK.
0 -
Hoist by their own petard on this. Promise to halve inflation knowing it's out of their control but is on track to halve in any case. Then things change and it isn't going to half. It's embedded. But the other bit remains the same - they can't do much because it's macro plus BoE plus luck. Now exposed as having made a fake opportunistic pledge as evidenced by gibberish answers to the eminently reasonable question: what are you going to do meet it? It's all going pear for the Tories. Big election defeat nailed on imo.Northern_Al said:
I listened to the interview with Cleverly - around 7.50 on Today. I don't say this lightly, but it was the most excruciating thing I've ever heard from a leading politician. On inflation, he was completely lost for words and became a gibbering wreck - it was almost cruel. He couldn't string two words together, let alone a sentence.sbjme19 said:On Today Amol Rajan was interviewing Cleverly about Ukraine and he suddenly switched to the economy and inflation. Oh dear! Then Robinson cruelly played it back after the interview with Reeves. Nasty bullies.... I bet they giggle at his name as well.
5 -
Yes they will.HYUFD said:
Heathism over Thatcherism in other words. In reality only if Labour returns to the Corbynite left, otherwise swing voters won't switch from a more centrist Labour party unless a Labour government mucks up the economy whether the Tories are Thatcherite or HeathiteMexicanpete said:
I don't believe we have an appetite for right wing extremism in this country.HYUFD said:
The only party that would replace the Tories is Farage's. About 2/3 of the current Tory vote is closer to Farage than HuntMexicanpete said:
Wouldn't it be nice if the current Conservative Party died on its arse, and from the ashes came a right of centre internationalist, non racist party perhaps called "One Nation" and all the corrupt halfwits and drama queens that have decimated your party just returned back up into Farage's rectum.TheScreamingEagles said:15% swing since the GE from the Tories to Lab in rural areas.
Another Brexit dividend.
The Tories aren’t in stepmom territory they are looking at Canada 1993.
The Conservative Party as it stands is an unhappy coalition of right wing populists and One Nation Tories. There is a much bigger voter base for a party of One Nation Tories to tap into. Butskellism lives!
Have you not heard of the Post-War (pre-Thatcher) Consensus?0
