The Tory polling recovery has come to an end – politicalbetting.com

Ratters said:

Casino_Royale said:

Heathener said:

To @MikeSmithson I'd add that this is not just about Boris, although some of it is.

Boris is definitely part of the problem because he reached a wing of voters, mainly northern red wall ones, who Sunak not only doesn't reach, but whom he has alienated. Boris has not gone away. Or, rather, by his exile he is reminding them of what they no longer have. Remember, they did not vote for Sunak. Every time Boris sticks his column in the Mail he's enflaming them against Sunak. These are also largely the 2019 stayaways who Mike has been warning about.

But there are two other whammies

One is the mortgage crisis, which is awful.

The other inflation, ditto.

And what are Labour going to do about inflation?

I haven't seem any convincing answers to @Pulpstar 's excellent questions this morning.

We have three problems: low growth, high inflation and a high deficit.

Not possible to solve all three at once from this starting point.

Labour could try for 2 out of three either by tax rises and spending cuts. For example, removing the triple lock or increasing income tax. Helps reduce inflation and the deficit.

But that would be politically brave. If they can at least hold off from inflationary spending (see: universal energy price cap, proposed tax cuts) that'd be a good start.

Otherwise, sack Bailey and replace him with an inflation hawk.

Wealth tax

dixiedean said:

Mexicanpete said:

Casino_Royale said:

Mexicanpete said:

Casino_Royale said:

Heathener said:

To @MikeSmithson I'd add that this is not just about Boris, although some of it is.

Boris is definitely part of the problem because he reached a wing of voters, mainly northern red wall ones, who Sunak not only doesn't reach, but whom he has alienated. Boris has not gone away. Or, rather, by his exile he is reminding them of what they no longer have. Remember, they did not vote for Sunak. Every time Boris sticks his column in the Mail he's enflaming them against Sunak. These are also largely the 2019 stayaways who Mike has been warning about.

But there are two other whammies

One is the mortgage crisis, which is awful.

The other inflation, ditto.

And what are Labour going to do about inflation?

I haven't seem any convincing answers to @Pulpstar 's excellent questions this morning.

There is a tipping point where the evils of inflation have to be balanced against the evils of repossessions and recession.

Interest rates are the BoE's only weapon. I heard the analogy that it's like playing the US Masters with just a 3 iron.

I suspect Reeves with her backstory may be more imaginative than Sunak and Hunt. I hope she is anyway.

So, she either has to do exactly the same thing she's currently attacking the Government for doing, or we're crossing our fingers and hoping she has some magic beans instead then?

Right!

I don't know.

I suspect if you wanted to point a finger at anyone for dropping the ball it's Bailey and the BoE. They were advised to raise interest rates far earlier than they did. Maybe a quick, shorter, sharper shock would be more effective.

You could also question Hunt as to why he has only met the mortgage provider Lobby today when the likes of Martin Lewis were advising action would be needed in 2023 last November.

Maybe Reeves has some ideas, maybe not. Your lot are clean out of them.

On which point. What is the point of a quarter or half point rise tomorrow when everyone knows there will be at least two more?
They are priced in.
Why not a full point tomorrow?
Get it over and done with.
Can someone explain?

I'll make a guess.

A huge increase all in one go will look like panic. The Bank has to pretend that it's in control, even when it probably isn't. If, for arguments' sake, an immediate hike were made to 5.5%, then market expectations for peak interest rates would probably go up from 6% to 7% or 8% (accompanied, ironically, by a tanking of the pound, higher interest rates being outweighed by the expectation of a nasty recession.) Beyond that, Bailey is probably keeping his fingers crossed that anticipation of deteriorating economic conditions will be enough to avert the much-feared wage-price spiral and negate the need for further rises - before he really is forced to hike interest rates to 7% or 8%.

Taz said:

ohnotnow said:

Taz said:

ohnotnow said:

viewcode said:

Taz said:

viewcode said:

Beibheirli_C said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

I am Horse.

I am Weasel

I am Groot

I am your father...

I am the oncoming storm...

I am death incarnate...

I am vengeance. I am the night...

And of course... I'm Batman.

So which one of you is Spartacus?

I think we are all Spartacus in some way. Although hopefully not the "crucified on the Appian Way" way, because that would be...bad.

I am he as you are he and you are me and we are all together…..

Third Doctor: "...Jo, it's quite simple. I am he and he is me"
Jo Grant: "...and we are all together, koo koo kichoo"
Second Doctor: "What"
Jo Grant: "It's a song by the Beatles..."

(The Three Doctors, 1973)

Look at you with your Pertwee-era references. It'll be The War Games quotes next.

If only the Doctor had said ‘that one looks like Karl Marx’ when being shown the pictures of what his future self could look like. 😀

Pertwee was the most right-on leftie Doctor of all. Always in contact with 'The Peace Party' and personal friend of Chairman Mao. Probably knew Corbyn.

Somewhat in the opposite direction - it's a long time since I watched The Brain of Morbius. You've just cost me a few nights viewing!

Good news, Brain of Morbius is a belter.

Pertwee was not only right on and pretty left wing, as a doctor, he also enjoyed sparring with petty pen pushers and bureaucrats like Walker in Sea Devils, Brownrose in Terror of the Autons and Chinn in Claws of Axos.

Now I have a dilemma. Do I watch an episode,of Dalziel and Pascoe and some seaside specials while working from home or do I watch Ambassadors of Death and Mind of Evil.

Ooft. Mind of Evil, surely!

viewcode said:

Miklosvar said:

JosiasJessop said:

Miklosvar said:

JosiasJessop said:

Miklosvar said:

JosiasJessop said:

CarlottaVance said:

bondegezou said:

CarlottaVance said:

WillG said:

CarlottaVance said:

There’s an old joke from Glasgow:

“Are you Catholic or Protestant?”
“Neither, I’m Atheist.”
“Aye, but are you a Catholic Atheist or a Protestant Atheist?”

That’s the problem with ‘cis’ - it buys into the belief system, it assumes you have a ‘gender identity’……

Insisting everyone has a ‘gender identity’ is akin to insisting everyone has a ‘soul’. It’s not insulting in itself, but if you keep on about it and can’t grasp that some people don’t share your belief, then they might get narked at you.

“But ‘cis’ just means the opposite of ‘trans’!”

Great - so what does ‘trans’ mean? It can’t be defined without referring to ‘gender identity’, a metaphysical belief.

https://twitter.com/bencooper/status/1671533767691759621?s=20

That's rubbish. Of course everyone has a gender identity. I think of myself as male. Even if you are the sort of person that thinks all trans people are mentally deluded, any everyone by rights should have the same gender and biological sex, gender identity still provably exists. In the way that a soul isn't provable.

How do you prove your gender? How do you test for it?

Your sex is in your chromosomes and for the overwhelming majority demonstrated in their reproductive organs. It’s binary in the overwhelming majority of mammals.

How many genders are there?

107?

https://www.sexualdiversity.org/edu/1111.php

If not, how many? And how do you prove it?

Gender is a social construct and a belief system.

Unsurprisingly some are rejecting compelled belief and compelled speech.

If we accept gender is a social construct,

If it’s not a social construct what is it?

If I say “I don’t believe in god” I’m not instantly denounced for promoting a Christian/Muslim genocide, of denying the existence of Christians, or having the police set upon me for hate speech. The trans community have been very poorly served by the authoritarian “no debate” trans activists.

Yes, I am sure the issue faced by the trans community is the actions of *some* trans activists. And not, say, those who try to belittle them, make them out to be a threat, and worse.

I mean, obviously the hated we see toSTFwards trans people is absolutely *not* an issue they face, is it?

I have no doubt there are groups of men who go around in cities identifying and beating up trans people, just as they identify and beat up gays and immigrants. That is appalling and, happily, illegal. but I have never seen anything identified on the internet as "hatred of trans people" which turned out on closer inspection to be anything other than a polite suggestion that women should be allowed their own hospital wards, and sporting contests. The people who go "Waaah" about this are doing a great disservice to the victims of the behaviour identified in sentence 1 above.

If you don't see it, then I suggest you look a little harder. Or, for your sanity, don't.

As a matter of interest, how do you define 'hatred' ?

That is an evasion, and just not good enough. Link, or stfu. In the mean time, the most hated "trans hater" I as a general internet consumer am aware of is JKR, and she has never said anything not entirely reasonable, nor anything which could be construed as hatred of anyone.

STFU?

I might suggest you take your own 'advice'.

But if you want a generalised take, from an OGH-friendly source:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-50166900
or:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48756370

It happens, and it is real.

"STFU" is entirely permissible, as a counter to your refusal to produce evidence. Otherwise it's not.

Your links are to an "Anti-bullying charity" and to the recording of "transgender hate crimes" by English police forces. Not what I call primary evidence. Have another go.

I'm not sure "recording of "transgender hate crimes" by English police forces" doesn't constitute primary evidence, except in the sense of being one step distant from the event. Are you asking for actual recordings of trans-bashing?

Given the polices record on identifying crimes, such as arresting people for the crime of walking around a lake together and having a coffee .....well sorry I don't take the police figures at all seriously they are a joke that makes the keystone cops look like a serious law and order outfit.

dixiedean said:

Mexicanpete said:

Casino_Royale said:

Mexicanpete said:

Casino_Royale said:

Heathener said:

To @MikeSmithson I'd add that this is not just about Boris, although some of it is.

Boris is definitely part of the problem because he reached a wing of voters, mainly northern red wall ones, who Sunak not only doesn't reach, but whom he has alienated. Boris has not gone away. Or, rather, by his exile he is reminding them of what they no longer have. Remember, they did not vote for Sunak. Every time Boris sticks his column in the Mail he's enflaming them against Sunak. These are also largely the 2019 stayaways who Mike has been warning about.

But there are two other whammies

One is the mortgage crisis, which is awful.

The other inflation, ditto.

And what are Labour going to do about inflation?

I haven't seem any convincing answers to @Pulpstar 's excellent questions this morning.

There is a tipping point where the evils of inflation have to be balanced against the evils of repossessions and recession.

Interest rates are the BoE's only weapon. I heard the analogy that it's like playing the US Masters with just a 3 iron.

I suspect Reeves with her backstory may be more imaginative than Sunak and Hunt. I hope she is anyway.

So, she either has to do exactly the same thing she's currently attacking the Government for doing, or we're crossing our fingers and hoping she has some magic beans instead then?

Right!

I don't know.

I suspect if you wanted to point a finger at anyone for dropping the ball it's Bailey and the BoE. They were advised to raise interest rates far earlier than they did. Maybe a quick, shorter, sharper shock would be more effective.

You could also question Hunt as to why he has only met the mortgage provider Lobby today when the likes of Martin Lewis were advising action would be needed in 2023 last November.

Maybe Reeves has some ideas, maybe not. Your lot are clean out of them.

On which point. What is the point of a quarter or half point rise tomorrow when everyone knows there will be at least two more?
They are priced in.
Why not a full point tomorrow?
Get it over and done with.
Can someone explain?

That makes sense. They can always claw some back if it looks excessive down the line. Don't you think it might be a full half a percentage point tomorrow?

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

ydoethur said:

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

Take Bobby Kennedy Jr. Seriously, Not Literally

"Sixty-six percent of registered voters think Biden is too old to be president and 59 percent have doubts about his mental fitness, according to a Harvard CAPS-Harris poll conducted last week."

"Biden is a weak candidate against almost any Republican, including Trump, and he’s probably even weaker with Kamala Harris as his running mate."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/20/opinion/robert-kennedy-democrat-president-2024.html

Had Bobby Kennedy not been shot he not Humphrey would likely have been Democratic nominee in 1968 and he would probably have beaten Nixon then to win the Presidency. Could Robert Kennedy Jnr do what his father narrowly missed, remember LBJ like Biden was at one stage hoping to run again as incumbent President

Even of primary Kennedy supporters they are supporting him because they know little about him beyond his family name. Only 12% of his own supporters go for his views/policies with 4% going for would do a good job, vs combined 57% for family connections/want to know more/is a democrat/would consider any candidate.

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23825119/cnn-poll-2024-democratic-primary.pdf

What is the main reason you would consider supporEng Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.? [OPEN-END]
May 17-20, 2023
Kennedy name/Family connecaons 20%
Do not know enough/Want to learn more 17%
Support his views/policies 12%
Would consider any candidate/Open-minded 10%
Is a Democrat/Not a Republican 10%
Qualified/Has poliacal experience 7%
Support any Democrat over Trump/Is not Trump 5%
Not Biden/Alternaave to Biden 4%
Would do a good job/Is a good leader 4%
Environmental posiaons/Climate 4%
Could win 3%
Someone new/Fresh face/Fresh ideas 3%
Age/Younger 3%
Could step in if Biden unable 1%
Other 9%
No opinion 8%

If he combines fans of the Kennedy brand with leftwingers who voted for Sanders in the 2020 Democratic primaries, he could yet run Biden close.

Not only Bobby Kennedy under LBJ's Presidency in 1968 but Ted Kennedy too v Carter in 1980 shows Kennedys are not afraid of challenging incumbent Democratic Presidents. Ted Kennedy also backed Obama in 2008 v establishment frontrunner Hillary Clinton

Bonkers. He would have more chance in the Republican primary.

He is bonkers, yes.

And I hope he has no chance in any primary. Even Trump isn't quite as bad as he is.

Allow me to repeat, RFKJR is just another Trumpist electoral prank. As with Ye 2020.

For starters in 2023 designed to sprinkle a bit o' sand in the Biden 2024 campaign gas tank. NOT enough to disable or even close, but something to gun up the works.

For 2024 primaries and maybe beyond, aimed at taking small stripes off of Uncle Joe's hide.

Which in close state and/or national situation MIGHT be the racers edge.

Fairly telling that one of Musk's tech billionaire mates is funding him.

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

bondegezou said:

CarlottaVance said:

WillG said:

CarlottaVance said:

There’s an old joke from Glasgow:

“Are you Catholic or Protestant?”
“Neither, I’m Atheist.”
“Aye, but are you a Catholic Atheist or a Protestant Atheist?”

That’s the problem with ‘cis’ - it buys into the belief system, it assumes you have a ‘gender identity’……

Insisting everyone has a ‘gender identity’ is akin to insisting everyone has a ‘soul’. It’s not insulting in itself, but if you keep on about it and can’t grasp that some people don’t share your belief, then they might get narked at you.

“But ‘cis’ just means the opposite of ‘trans’!”

Great - so what does ‘trans’ mean? It can’t be defined without referring to ‘gender identity’, a metaphysical belief.

https://twitter.com/bencooper/status/1671533767691759621?s=20

That's rubbish. Of course everyone has a gender identity. I think of myself as male. Even if you are the sort of person that thinks all trans people are mentally deluded, any everyone by rights should have the same gender and biological sex, gender identity still provably exists. In the way that a soul isn't provable.

How do you prove your gender? How do you test for it?

Your sex is in your chromosomes and for the overwhelming majority demonstrated in their reproductive organs. It’s binary in the overwhelming majority of mammals.

How many genders are there?

107?

https://www.sexualdiversity.org/edu/1111.php

If not, how many? And how do you prove it?

Gender is a social construct and a belief system.

Unsurprisingly some are rejecting compelled belief and compelled speech.

If we accept gender is a social construct, does that mean that we should ignore gender in law? Should we support or make life difficult for people who want to change gender?

Ethnicity is a social construct. Religion is a social construct. These things have protection in law (albeit different ones). Money is a social construct. Democracy is a social construct. Lots of interesting and nice things are social constructs!

Religion certainly shouldn't be protected by law, nor ethnicity. Democracy and money aren't protected already you are free to advocate for a dictatorship or a cash free society based on barter

There's a big difference between advocating for political change and just doing stuff.

You can advocate for dictatorship.
You can advocate for racist policies too.

But you can't just set yourself up as a dictator. And you can't go around enacting racist workplace policies for example. Because the laws forbid those.

Freedom to say what you think should be the case is different to acting like it's already the case.

So if I walk round with an "( insert deity of choice) is an arsehole" tshirt on do you think the likely result is a) I will get a few people shaking their head or b) I get arrested

I suspect we all know the answer is b)

So it is ok to proclaim "(deity of choice) is great" but not the opposite. Each are equally valid as opinions

pigeon said:

CarlottaVance said:

🙉 Hear there were some serious truth bombs at the 1922 Committee in address by @FrankLuntz to Tory MPs.

Said anyone with a 15k or less majority is "at this moment in time" under threat of losing their seat - added: "this is what CCHQ are not telling you."….

Luntz also said while he counted Boris Johnson as a friend, the ex-PM was "behaving horribly" and "Trumpian" and said "he needs to go away."

Some grim gallows humour from Tory MPs in - what were previously not considered - marginal seats... some wondering what to do next. 2/2

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1671565931405770757?s=20

I would've thought that about half of the Parliamentary Conservative Party are defending majorities of under 15,000. That implies a 1997-level defeat. Though then again, if we have a mortgage crisis and stagflation at the same time in 2024, the remaining half of the Tory MPs would probably take a result like that with a sigh of relief.

Some with more than 15,000 majorities would be far from safe where the polls are now. Its probable that won't be true at the GE but given Mr Sunak's political skills and campaigning ability we could lurch into a 2017 style Con campaign and then who knows?

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Brussels to allow installation of spyware on journalists’ phones and laptops
The EU’s decision to give intrusive surveillance of reporters the green light has put their sources at risk of identification
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/journalist-spyware-eu-surveillance-sources-3lfnqqznr (£££)

Hence, Brexit

Clutch_Brompton said:

pigeon said:

CarlottaVance said:

🙉 Hear there were some serious truth bombs at the 1922 Committee in address by @FrankLuntz to Tory MPs.

Said anyone with a 15k or less majority is "at this moment in time" under threat of losing their seat - added: "this is what CCHQ are not telling you."….

Luntz also said while he counted Boris Johnson as a friend, the ex-PM was "behaving horribly" and "Trumpian" and said "he needs to go away."

Some grim gallows humour from Tory MPs in - what were previously not considered - marginal seats... some wondering what to do next. 2/2

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1671565931405770757?s=20

I would've thought that about half of the Parliamentary Conservative Party are defending majorities of under 15,000. That implies a 1997-level defeat. Though then again, if we have a mortgage crisis and stagflation at the same time in 2024, the remaining half of the Tory MPs would probably take a result like that with a sigh of relief.

Some with more that 15,000 majorities would be far from safe where the polls are now. Its probable that won't be true at the GE but given Mr Sunak's political skills and campaigning ability we could lurch into a 2017 style Tory campaign and then who knows?

Personally I don't think that the Tories will do nearly as badly as 1997, simply because the median age of the electorate has increased in the last 25 years, and the well-to-do over-50s will likely still turn out for them. But we shall see.

viewcode said:

ohnotnow said:

viewcode said:

ohnotnow said:

viewcode said:

Taz said:

viewcode said:

Beibheirli_C said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

I am Horse.

I am Weasel

I am Groot

I am your father...

I am the oncoming storm...

I am death incarnate...

I am vengeance. I am the night...

And of course... I'm Batman.

So which one of you is Spartacus?

I think we are all Spartacus in some way. Although hopefully not the "crucified on the Appian Way" way, because that would be...bad.

I am he as you are he and you are me and we are all together…..

Third Doctor: "...Jo, it's quite simple. I am he and he is me"
Jo Grant: "...and we are all together, koo koo kichoo"
Second Doctor: "What"
Jo Grant: "It's a song by the Beatles..."

(The Three Doctors, 1973)

Look at you with your Pertwee-era references. It'll be The War Games quotes next.

Hah! Trick question! ("The War Games" was Troughton. Unless you meant the "WarGames"? Or "The War Game")

I meant you'd go juuuust a bit further back. I wasn't going to test you on Hartnell - that would just be too much.... ;-)

Pertwee is before my time, but his era was a banger - they showed his shows on the Horror Channel a few years back. From the start of Three/Jo Grant to about the end of Four/Sarah-Jane (possibly Four/Leela but not K9) was about as good as the classic serial ever got. After that it was just bits and bobs until it died of neglect and JNT...

For me the third Hartnell series was as good as it got for classic who, the troughton era was hugely overrated and benefited from peoples fond memories in eighties fandom and once episodes started returning they were mostly meh.

Season 7 through to 14, I’d agree, magnificent. But season 16 and 17 are just great fun too.

Macron is emotional about France extracting as much advantage as it can out of the UK's weakened position.

Philip Hammond to Andrew Marr:
"There's no way back into the EU on any terms the British people would find acceptable... [but side-deals will come because while] President Macron feels that Britain must pay a price he won't be there forever and other leaders are less emotional".

https://twitter.com/goodclimate/status/1671569068262817810

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Roger said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Roger said:

To days news is wall to wall financial crisis with the elephant in the room being Brexit. Now that Johnson has gone commentators and others seem much less restrained in mentioning the great unmentionable. There's hardly anyone still talking it up or even prepared to defend it.

Surely someone has got to mobilise the 17,000,000 (Now more likely to be 25,000,000) or they're going to get bounced around by this economic storm like everyone else and without even a loin cloth.

Time for someone with courage or ambition to go for it.

Personally, I have given up on the UK rejoining. I found it a lot easier to let my UK passport expire and just start using my Irish one.

Are you allowed to have both? A friend has just got herself an Austrian passport which they'll give to any family of Austrian refugees from WW2 however many generations down the line and they can keep their UK one. You're very fortunate. In France people with properties are trying to invent the most crazy schemes to circumvent the rules. The French are now bringing in a non dom property tax which you can't blame them for doing. If Boris ever finds his way to the Cote d'Azur he'll be strung up

The Irish do not mind their citizens being dual passport holders - and a lot of other countries are the same.

The blue UK passport is much devalued since we left. And that was allegedly our key to sovereignty and the reason for leaving. What a joke!

I wouldn’t say the U.K. passport power ranked as 3rd in the world was “much devalued” - ahead of the USA, Canada and on a par with Ireland….

https://www.passportindex.org/byRank.php

Nigelb said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

ydoethur said:

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

Take Bobby Kennedy Jr. Seriously, Not Literally

"Sixty-six percent of registered voters think Biden is too old to be president and 59 percent have doubts about his mental fitness, according to a Harvard CAPS-Harris poll conducted last week."

"Biden is a weak candidate against almost any Republican, including Trump, and he’s probably even weaker with Kamala Harris as his running mate."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/20/opinion/robert-kennedy-democrat-president-2024.html

Had Bobby Kennedy not been shot he not Humphrey would likely have been Democratic nominee in 1968 and he would probably have beaten Nixon then to win the Presidency. Could Robert Kennedy Jnr do what his father narrowly missed, remember LBJ like Biden was at one stage hoping to run again as incumbent President

Even of primary Kennedy supporters they are supporting him because they know little about him beyond his family name. Only 12% of his own supporters go for his views/policies with 4% going for would do a good job, vs combined 57% for family connections/want to know more/is a democrat/would consider any candidate.

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23825119/cnn-poll-2024-democratic-primary.pdf

What is the main reason you would consider supporEng Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.? [OPEN-END]
May 17-20, 2023
Kennedy name/Family connecaons 20%
Do not know enough/Want to learn more 17%
Support his views/policies 12%
Would consider any candidate/Open-minded 10%
Is a Democrat/Not a Republican 10%
Qualified/Has poliacal experience 7%
Support any Democrat over Trump/Is not Trump 5%
Not Biden/Alternaave to Biden 4%
Would do a good job/Is a good leader 4%
Environmental posiaons/Climate 4%
Could win 3%
Someone new/Fresh face/Fresh ideas 3%
Age/Younger 3%
Could step in if Biden unable 1%
Other 9%
No opinion 8%

If he combines fans of the Kennedy brand with leftwingers who voted for Sanders in the 2020 Democratic primaries, he could yet run Biden close.

Not only Bobby Kennedy under LBJ's Presidency in 1968 but Ted Kennedy too v Carter in 1980 shows Kennedys are not afraid of challenging incumbent Democratic Presidents. Ted Kennedy also backed Obama in 2008 v establishment frontrunner Hillary Clinton

Bonkers. He would have more chance in the Republican primary.

He is bonkers, yes.

And I hope he has no chance in any primary. Even Trump isn't quite as bad as he is.

Allow me to repeat, RFKJR is just another Trumpist electoral prank. As with Ye 2020.

For starters in 2023 designed to sprinkle a bit o' sand in the Biden 2024 campaign gas tank. NOT enough to disable or even close, but something to gun up the works.

For 2024 primaries and maybe beyond, aimed at taking small stripes off of Uncle Joe's hide.

Which in close state and/or national situation MIGHT be the racers edge.

Fairly telling that one of Musk's tech billionaire mates is funding him.

For the record, should NOT forget the pro-Trump role played by Green Party nominee Jill Stein in 2016.

Pro-Russian, anti-vax; sound familiar? (See Proverbs 26:11)

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

bondegezou said:

CarlottaVance said:

WillG said:

CarlottaVance said:

There’s an old joke from Glasgow:

“Are you Catholic or Protestant?”
“Neither, I’m Atheist.”
“Aye, but are you a Catholic Atheist or a Protestant Atheist?”

That’s the problem with ‘cis’ - it buys into the belief system, it assumes you have a ‘gender identity’……

Insisting everyone has a ‘gender identity’ is akin to insisting everyone has a ‘soul’. It’s not insulting in itself, but if you keep on about it and can’t grasp that some people don’t share your belief, then they might get narked at you.

“But ‘cis’ just means the opposite of ‘trans’!”

Great - so what does ‘trans’ mean? It can’t be defined without referring to ‘gender identity’, a metaphysical belief.

https://twitter.com/bencooper/status/1671533767691759621?s=20

That's rubbish. Of course everyone has a gender identity. I think of myself as male. Even if you are the sort of person that thinks all trans people are mentally deluded, any everyone by rights should have the same gender and biological sex, gender identity still provably exists. In the way that a soul isn't provable.

How do you prove your gender? How do you test for it?

Your sex is in your chromosomes and for the overwhelming majority demonstrated in their reproductive organs. It’s binary in the overwhelming majority of mammals.

How many genders are there?

107?

https://www.sexualdiversity.org/edu/1111.php

If not, how many? And how do you prove it?

Gender is a social construct and a belief system.

Unsurprisingly some are rejecting compelled belief and compelled speech.

If we accept gender is a social construct, does that mean that we should ignore gender in law? Should we support or make life difficult for people who want to change gender?

Ethnicity is a social construct. Religion is a social construct. These things have protection in law (albeit different ones). Money is a social construct. Democracy is a social construct. Lots of interesting and nice things are social constructs!

Religion certainly shouldn't be protected by law, nor ethnicity. Democracy and money aren't protected already you are free to advocate for a dictatorship or a cash free society based on barter

There's a big difference between advocating for political change and just doing stuff.

You can advocate for dictatorship.
You can advocate for racist policies too.

But you can't just set yourself up as a dictator. And you can't go around enacting racist workplace policies for example. Because the laws forbid those.

Freedom to say what you think should be the case is different to acting like it's already the case.

So if I walk round with an "( insert deity of choice) is an arsehole" tshirt on do you think the likely result is a) I will get a few people shaking their head or b) I get arrested

I suspect we all know the answer is b)

So it is ok to proclaim "(deity of choice) is great" but not the opposite. Each are equally valid as opinions

Jesus is an arsehole.
Mohammad is an arsehole.
Abraham, Gautama Buddha, Rishabhadeva: arseholes.
And any gods they tell us about: arseholes.

Yoda?

CarlottaVance said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Roger said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Roger said:

To days news is wall to wall financial crisis with the elephant in the room being Brexit. Now that Johnson has gone commentators and others seem much less restrained in mentioning the great unmentionable. There's hardly anyone still talking it up or even prepared to defend it.

Surely someone has got to mobilise the 17,000,000 (Now more likely to be 25,000,000) or they're going to get bounced around by this economic storm like everyone else and without even a loin cloth.

Time for someone with courage or ambition to go for it.

Personally, I have given up on the UK rejoining. I found it a lot easier to let my UK passport expire and just start using my Irish one.

Are you allowed to have both? A friend has just got herself an Austrian passport which they'll give to any family of Austrian refugees from WW2 however many generations down the line and they can keep their UK one. You're very fortunate. In France people with properties are trying to invent the most crazy schemes to circumvent the rules. The French are now bringing in a non dom property tax which you can't blame them for doing. If Boris ever finds his way to the Cote d'Azur he'll be strung up

The Irish do not mind their citizens being dual passport holders - and a lot of other countries are the same.

The blue UK passport is much devalued since we left. And that was allegedly our key to sovereignty and the reason for leaving. What a joke!

I wouldn’t say the U.K. passport power ranked as 3rd in the world was “much devalued” - ahead of the USA, Canada and on a par with Ireland….

https://www.passportindex.org/byRank.php

People tend to confuse a passport with citizenship. They are connected but not at all the same thing.

pigeon said:

CarlottaVance said:

🙉 Hear there were some serious truth bombs at the 1922 Committee in address by @FrankLuntz to Tory MPs.

Said anyone with a 15k or less majority is "at this moment in time" under threat of losing their seat - added: "this is what CCHQ are not telling you."….

Luntz also said while he counted Boris Johnson as a friend, the ex-PM was "behaving horribly" and "Trumpian" and said "he needs to go away."

Some grim gallows humour from Tory MPs in - what were previously not considered - marginal seats... some wondering what to do next. 2/2

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1671565931405770757?s=20

I would've thought that about half of the Parliamentary Conservative Party are defending majorities of under 15,000. That implies a 1997-level defeat. Though then again, if we have a mortgage crisis and stagflation at the same time in 2024, the remaining half of the Tory MPs would probably take a result like that with a sigh of relief.

CON probably heading for 210 now. Lower than what I have projected previously but people are really unhappy with the government's complete inability to deal with inflation 👿👿👿

Living in London is a bit of an echo chamber for progressive politics. Very few Tories here, and even the few that are here think Brexit is a total clusterf*ck. Does anyone actually seriously think think Brexit is beneficial? Anyone?

murali_s said:

Living in London is a bit of an echo chamber for progressive politics. Very few Tories here, and even the few that are here think Brexit is a total clusterf*ck. Does anyone actually seriously think think Brexit is beneficial? Anyone?

I do, for one.

Taz said:

viewcode said:

Taz said:

viewcode said:

Taz said:

viewcode said:

Beibheirli_C said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

I am Horse.

I am Weasel

I am Groot

I am your father...

I am the oncoming storm...

I am death incarnate...

I am vengeance. I am the night...

And of course... I'm Batman.

So which one of you is Spartacus?

I think we are all Spartacus in some way. Although hopefully not the "crucified on the Appian Way" way, because that would be...bad.

I am he as you are he and you are me and we are all together…..

Third Doctor: "...Jo, it's quite simple. I am he and he is me"
Jo Grant: "...and we are all together, koo koo kichoo"
Second Doctor: "What"
Jo Grant: "It's a song by the Beatles..."

(The Three Doctors, 1973)

Yay, You’ve redeemed yourself after the Terror of the Autons miss 😀😀😀😀

Here’s some seventies kitsch.

https://youtu.be/DNuco0p55dc

Thank you for the link, which I watched with gr...oh my goodness it was awful. Well, to be honest, it wasn't bad, and certainly not rubbish, but very of its time.

Two weeks before: Mike and Bernie Winters! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foGD5DbLJck

Bloody hell, Peter Gordeno is in that one ! From UFO.

I am going to grab some of these tomorrow as I am working from home. They are so dire they are entertaining. YouTube has some good stuff being posted. There’s an account called Nostalgia who posts some great one off plays and dramas.

Loved the original Mike Batt theme, there’s a TOTP that exists with him playing it and, Pans People are dancing to it.

I did watch that play for tomorrow, Crimes, I think you posted. I got it off thebox a few years ago. It was hard going apart from the lovely Sylvestra La Touzel.

I can't remember posting "Crimes", but I do remember posting "The Stone Tape" (TV, radio), whose reputation only rises with age - I think Gatiss is a fan?

murali_s said:

Living in London is a bit of an echo chamber for progressive politics. Very few Tories here, and even the few that are here think Brexit is a total clusterf*ck. Does anyone actually seriously think think Brexit is beneficial? Anyone?

Putin

murali_s said:

Living in London is a bit of an echo chamber for progressive politics. Very few Tories here, and even the few that are here think Brexit is a total clusterf*ck. Does anyone actually seriously think think Brexit is beneficial? Anyone?

No. It’s shit. But we lost. Stop thinking I’m terms of the last 8 years and start thinking about the next decade. Pontificating about fucking passports (not you, others) isn’t doing shit and is the type of lazy entitled thinking that got us into this mess. Here’s a plan, start advocating for small steps, Horizon, Erasmus, that a Labour Govt could achieve without too much rocking the boat. Then in the second term Single Market membership. Then, maybe in as little as 10 years (v optimistic I admit) start thinking about rejoin. It can’t happen now. The wounds are too raw.

[deleted: blockquote upfucked]

This is fantastic news for the Tory party

🔵 BICESTER & WOODSTOCK: former George Osborne adviser Rupert Harrison picked as Conservative candidate.

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1671612506291175430?s=46

Farooq said:

boulay said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

bondegezou said:

CarlottaVance said:

WillG said:

CarlottaVance said:

There’s an old joke from Glasgow:

“Are you Catholic or Protestant?”
“Neither, I’m Atheist.”
“Aye, but are you a Catholic Atheist or a Protestant Atheist?”

That’s the problem with ‘cis’ - it buys into the belief system, it assumes you have a ‘gender identity’……

Insisting everyone has a ‘gender identity’ is akin to insisting everyone has a ‘soul’. It’s not insulting in itself, but if you keep on about it and can’t grasp that some people don’t share your belief, then they might get narked at you.

“But ‘cis’ just means the opposite of ‘trans’!”

Great - so what does ‘trans’ mean? It can’t be defined without referring to ‘gender identity’, a metaphysical belief.

https://twitter.com/bencooper/status/1671533767691759621?s=20

That's rubbish. Of course everyone has a gender identity. I think of myself as male. Even if you are the sort of person that thinks all trans people are mentally deluded, any everyone by rights should have the same gender and biological sex, gender identity still provably exists. In the way that a soul isn't provable.

How do you prove your gender? How do you test for it?

Your sex is in your chromosomes and for the overwhelming majority demonstrated in their reproductive organs. It’s binary in the overwhelming majority of mammals.

How many genders are there?

107?

https://www.sexualdiversity.org/edu/1111.php

If not, how many? And how do you prove it?

Gender is a social construct and a belief system.

Unsurprisingly some are rejecting compelled belief and compelled speech.

If we accept gender is a social construct, does that mean that we should ignore gender in law? Should we support or make life difficult for people who want to change gender?

Ethnicity is a social construct. Religion is a social construct. These things have protection in law (albeit different ones). Money is a social construct. Democracy is a social construct. Lots of interesting and nice things are social constructs!

Religion certainly shouldn't be protected by law, nor ethnicity. Democracy and money aren't protected already you are free to advocate for a dictatorship or a cash free society based on barter

There's a big difference between advocating for political change and just doing stuff.

You can advocate for dictatorship.
You can advocate for racist policies too.

But you can't just set yourself up as a dictator. And you can't go around enacting racist workplace policies for example. Because the laws forbid those.

Freedom to say what you think should be the case is different to acting like it's already the case.

So if I walk round with an "( insert deity of choice) is an arsehole" tshirt on do you think the likely result is a) I will get a few people shaking their head or b) I get arrested

I suspect we all know the answer is b)

So it is ok to proclaim "(deity of choice) is great" but not the opposite. Each are equally valid as opinions

Jesus is an arsehole.
Mohammad is an arsehole.
Abraham, Gautama Buddha, Rishabhadeva: arseholes.
And any gods they tell us about: arseholes.

Not one of my favourite Radiohead songs but each to their own.

I quite like the track "God is dead" but it's a bit of a Nietzsche interest

"Blasphemous Rumours" by Depeche Mode?

Probabilities for the next GE right now?

I'm guessing:

10% Tory wipe-out, Labour landslide
30% Workable Labour majority
40% Labour-led hung parliament
15% Chaotic hung parliament, Tories largest party but unable to govern - 2nd election within 6 months
5% Tory majority

Question for me is what happens to voting reform if the Labour-led hung parliament comes to pass?

DougSeal said:

CarlottaVance said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Roger said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Roger said:

To days news is wall to wall financial crisis with the elephant in the room being Brexit. Now that Johnson has gone commentators and others seem much less restrained in mentioning the great unmentionable. There's hardly anyone still talking it up or even prepared to defend it.

Surely someone has got to mobilise the 17,000,000 (Now more likely to be 25,000,000) or they're going to get bounced around by this economic storm like everyone else and without even a loin cloth.

Time for someone with courage or ambition to go for it.

Personally, I have given up on the UK rejoining. I found it a lot easier to let my UK passport expire and just start using my Irish one.

Are you allowed to have both? A friend has just got herself an Austrian passport which they'll give to any family of Austrian refugees from WW2 however many generations down the line and they can keep their UK one. You're very fortunate. In France people with properties are trying to invent the most crazy schemes to circumvent the rules. The French are now bringing in a non dom property tax which you can't blame them for doing. If Boris ever finds his way to the Cote d'Azur he'll be strung up

The Irish do not mind their citizens being dual passport holders - and a lot of other countries are the same.

The blue UK passport is much devalued since we left. And that was allegedly our key to sovereignty and the reason for leaving. What a joke!

I wouldn’t say the U.K. passport power ranked as 3rd in the world was “much devalued” - ahead of the USA, Canada and on a par with Ireland….

https://www.passportindex.org/byRank.php

People tend to confuse a passport with citizenship. They are connected but not at all the same thing.

True. I have had dual citizenship all my life, but Brexit made me apply for my Irish passport.

...

londonpubman said:

I know I have come to this a bit late but yes CON are heading for 32% max.

No one likes LAB but Keir can start measuring up the curtains now! LAB 41%. Enough for 330 seats +

Don't mention No 10 interior decor. You know how that ended once before.

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is fantastic news for the Tory party

🔵 BICESTER & WOODSTOCK: former George Osborne adviser Rupert Harrison picked as Conservative candidate.

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1671612506291175430?s=46

Never mind that, I'm interested in who Labour have selected to be the new MP.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Farooq said:

boulay said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

bondegezou said:

CarlottaVance said:

WillG said:

CarlottaVance said:

There’s an old joke from Glasgow:

“Are you Catholic or Protestant?”
“Neither, I’m Atheist.”
“Aye, but are you a Catholic Atheist or a Protestant Atheist?”

That’s the problem with ‘cis’ - it buys into the belief system, it assumes you have a ‘gender identity’……

Insisting everyone has a ‘gender identity’ is akin to insisting everyone has a ‘soul’. It’s not insulting in itself, but if you keep on about it and can’t grasp that some people don’t share your belief, then they might get narked at you.

“But ‘cis’ just means the opposite of ‘trans’!”

Great - so what does ‘trans’ mean? It can’t be defined without referring to ‘gender identity’, a metaphysical belief.

https://twitter.com/bencooper/status/1671533767691759621?s=20

That's rubbish. Of course everyone has a gender identity. I think of myself as male. Even if you are the sort of person that thinks all trans people are mentally deluded, any everyone by rights should have the same gender and biological sex, gender identity still provably exists. In the way that a soul isn't provable.

How do you prove your gender? How do you test for it?

Your sex is in your chromosomes and for the overwhelming majority demonstrated in their reproductive organs. It’s binary in the overwhelming majority of mammals.

How many genders are there?

107?

https://www.sexualdiversity.org/edu/1111.php

If not, how many? And how do you prove it?

Gender is a social construct and a belief system.

Unsurprisingly some are rejecting compelled belief and compelled speech.

If we accept gender is a social construct, does that mean that we should ignore gender in law? Should we support or make life difficult for people who want to change gender?

Ethnicity is a social construct. Religion is a social construct. These things have protection in law (albeit different ones). Money is a social construct. Democracy is a social construct. Lots of interesting and nice things are social constructs!

Religion certainly shouldn't be protected by law, nor ethnicity. Democracy and money aren't protected already you are free to advocate for a dictatorship or a cash free society based on barter

There's a big difference between advocating for political change and just doing stuff.

You can advocate for dictatorship.
You can advocate for racist policies too.

But you can't just set yourself up as a dictator. And you can't go around enacting racist workplace policies for example. Because the laws forbid those.

Freedom to say what you think should be the case is different to acting like it's already the case.

So if I walk round with an "( insert deity of choice) is an arsehole" tshirt on do you think the likely result is a) I will get a few people shaking their head or b) I get arrested

I suspect we all know the answer is b)

So it is ok to proclaim "(deity of choice) is great" but not the opposite. Each are equally valid as opinions

Jesus is an arsehole.
Mohammad is an arsehole.
Abraham, Gautama Buddha, Rishabhadeva: arseholes.
And any gods they tell us about: arseholes.

Not one of my favourite Radiohead songs but each to their own.

I quite like the track "God is dead" but it's a bit of a Nietzsche interest

"Blasphemous Rumours" by Depeche Mode?

NIN I think?

But both are excellent.

Steve.

Cyclefree said:

BTW Darren Jones MP is doing really good work in the Business Select Committee holding the Post Office to account in a politely lethal way. A Labour MP to keep an eye on for the future I think.

Badenoch I see continues to be utterly feeble on this. Stupid woman.

Why is her sex (or gender?) relevant here?

Anybody who thinks the Tories have a chance has to factor that

1. We have the same feeling of "kick the feckers out" and "time for a change" that we had in 1997

PLUS

2. We have a looming recession, a massive debt crisis, public services struggling, mortgage rates surging, on and on and on: unlike in 1997 when economic conditions were benign

So the Tories are ultra-screwed. There is no way out of this. Meanwhile the SNP have exploded, opening the door for Starmer in Scotland, too

Labour are gonna win, big or small, they are gonna win. But I predict they will become unpopular very quickly, when their lack of ideas is exposed

One for DuraAce
https://twitter.com/AbdNav2K2/status/1671219031003496454

viewcode said:

Taz said:

viewcode said:

Taz said:

viewcode said:

Taz said:

viewcode said:

Taz said:

viewcode said:

Beibheirli_C said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

I am Horse.

I am Weasel

I am Groot

I am your father...

I am the oncoming storm...

I am death incarnate...

I am vengeance. I am the night...

And of course... I'm Batman.

So which one of you is Spartacus?

I think we are all Spartacus in some way. Although hopefully not the "crucified on the Appian Way" way, because that would be...bad.

I am he as you are he and you are me and we are all together…..

Third Doctor: "...Jo, it's quite simple. I am he and he is me"
Jo Grant: "...and we are all together, koo koo kichoo"
Second Doctor: "What"
Jo Grant: "It's a song by the Beatles..."

(The Three Doctors, 1973)

Yay, You’ve redeemed yourself after the Terror of the Autons miss 😀😀😀😀

Here’s some seventies kitsch.

https://youtu.be/DNuco0p55dc

Thank you for the link, which I watched with gr...oh my goodness it was awful. Well, to be honest, it wasn't bad, and certainly not rubbish, but very of its time.

Two weeks before: Mike and Bernie Winters! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foGD5DbLJck

Bloody hell, Peter Gordeno is in that one ! From UFO.

I am going to grab some of these tomorrow as I am working from home. They are so dire they are entertaining. YouTube has some good stuff being posted. There’s an account called Nostalgia who posts some great one off plays and dramas.

Loved the original Mike Batt theme, there’s a TOTP that exists with him playing it and, Pans People are dancing to it.

I did watch that play for tomorrow, Crimes, I think you posted. I got it off thebox a few years ago. It was hard going apart from the lovely Sylvestra La Touzel.

I can't remember posting "Crimes", but I do remember posting "The Stone Tape" (TV, radio), whose reputation only rises with age - I think Gatiss is a fan?

He certainly is and he is a fan of a lot,of that sort of stuff. Nigel Kneale, Quatermass, Out of the Unknown.

I did grab that from YouTube and listened to it. I got a fair few good audio series from YouTube on the back of that.

Of course all this will end with a discussion of "The Daemons"...

And Blanche Livermore, of this parish, being the postie in Aldbourne for a while !!

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Probabilities for the next GE right now?

I'm guessing:

10% Tory wipe-out, Labour landslide
30% Workable Labour majority
40% Labour-led hung parliament
15% Chaotic hung parliament, Tories largest party but unable to govern - 2nd election within 6 months
5% Tory majority

Question for me is what happens to voting reform if the Labour-led hung parliament comes to pass?

35% Tory wipe out, Labour landslide
35% Workable Labour majority
25% Labour led hung parliament
4.9999% Chaotic hung parliament, Tories largest party etc
0.0001% Tory majority

Yeah you may be right but... swing-back.

Swing back why? Starmer is the least scary Labour leader since Blair. He is dull as fuck. No one will run away from his manifesto of zero promises, apart from a few True Blues who were never gonna vote for him anyway (public school charity status etc)

Everyone hates the Tories. I mean, even I hate them and I generally (if not always) vote for them

They cannot recover, there is no route, we are half way through 2023 and there is nothing but dark clouds on the horizon

Andy_JS said:

murali_s said:

Living in London is a bit of an echo chamber for progressive politics. Very few Tories here, and even the few that are here think Brexit is a total clusterf*ck. Does anyone actually seriously think think Brexit is beneficial? Anyone?

Try asking outside London and the Home Counties.

Red Wall polling suggests there ain't much enthusiasm for Brexit there either.

Mexicanpete said:

dixiedean said:

Mexicanpete said:

Casino_Royale said:

Mexicanpete said:

Casino_Royale said:

Heathener said:

To @MikeSmithson I'd add that this is not just about Boris, although some of it is.

Boris is definitely part of the problem because he reached a wing of voters, mainly northern red wall ones, who Sunak not only doesn't reach, but whom he has alienated. Boris has not gone away. Or, rather, by his exile he is reminding them of what they no longer have. Remember, they did not vote for Sunak. Every time Boris sticks his column in the Mail he's enflaming them against Sunak. These are also largely the 2019 stayaways who Mike has been warning about.

But there are two other whammies

One is the mortgage crisis, which is awful.

The other inflation, ditto.

And what are Labour going to do about inflation?

I haven't seem any convincing answers to @Pulpstar 's excellent questions this morning.

There is a tipping point where the evils of inflation have to be balanced against the evils of repossessions and recession.

Interest rates are the BoE's only weapon. I heard the analogy that it's like playing the US Masters with just a 3 iron.

I suspect Reeves with her backstory may be more imaginative than Sunak and Hunt. I hope she is anyway.

So, she either has to do exactly the same thing she's currently attacking the Government for doing, or we're crossing our fingers and hoping she has some magic beans instead then?

Right!

I don't know.

I suspect if you wanted to point a finger at anyone for dropping the ball it's Bailey and the BoE. They were advised to raise interest rates far earlier than they did. Maybe a quick, shorter, sharper shock would be more effective.

You could also question Hunt as to why he has only met the mortgage provider Lobby today when the likes of Martin Lewis were advising action would be needed in 2023 last November.

Maybe Reeves has some ideas, maybe not. Your lot are clean out of them.

On which point. What is the point of a quarter or half point rise tomorrow when everyone knows there will be at least two more?
They are priced in.
Why not a full point tomorrow?
Get it over and done with.
Can someone explain?

That makes sense. They can always claw some back if it looks excessive down the line. Don't you think it might be a full half a percentage point tomorrow?

Yes.
It might be. Would be surprised though.
Every move has been timid.

Benpointer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Heathener said:

To @MikeSmithson I'd add that this is not just about Boris, although some of it is.

Boris is definitely part of the problem because he reached a wing of voters, mainly northern red wall ones, who Sunak not only doesn't reach, but whom he has alienated. Boris has not gone away. Or, rather, by his exile he is reminding them of what they no longer have. Remember, they did not vote for Sunak. Every time Boris sticks his column in the Mail he's enflaming them against Sunak. These are also largely the 2019 stayaways who Mike has been warning about.

But there are two other whammies

One is the mortgage crisis, which is awful.

The other inflation, ditto.

And what are Labour going to do about inflation?

I haven't seem any convincing answers to @Pulpstar 's excellent questions this morning.

The first thing Labour are going to do about inflation is (correctly) point out that it is the Tories who got us here.

Sunak's approach on inflation maybe the correct one - it maybe the only sensible one - but the Tories have made a lot of mistakes with the economy; the country is unlikely to risk them making any more for some time to come.

I don’t disagree that mistakes have been made, but a lot of the problems we now face are primarily external and global. The pandemic and the war in ukraine are the main reasons for the high inflation now, not the Tories.
But they will get the blame. Just as they blamed labour for 2008.

Mexicanpete said:

CarlottaVance said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Roger said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Roger said:

To days news is wall to wall financial crisis with the elephant in the room being Brexit. Now that Johnson has gone commentators and others seem much less restrained in mentioning the great unmentionable. There's hardly anyone still talking it up or even prepared to defend it.

Surely someone has got to mobilise the 17,000,000 (Now more likely to be 25,000,000) or they're going to get bounced around by this economic storm like everyone else and without even a loin cloth.

Time for someone with courage or ambition to go for it.

Personally, I have given up on the UK rejoining. I found it a lot easier to let my UK passport expire and just start using my Irish one.

Are you allowed to have both? A friend has just got herself an Austrian passport which they'll give to any family of Austrian refugees from WW2 however many generations down the line and they can keep their UK one. You're very fortunate. In France people with properties are trying to invent the most crazy schemes to circumvent the rules. The French are now bringing in a non dom property tax which you can't blame them for doing. If Boris ever finds his way to the Cote d'Azur he'll be strung up

The Irish do not mind their citizens being dual passport holders - and a lot of other countries are the same.

The blue UK passport is much devalued since we left. And that was allegedly our key to sovereignty and the reason for leaving. What a joke!

I wouldn’t say the U.K. passport power ranked as 3rd in the world was “much devalued” - ahead of the USA, Canada and on a par with Ireland….

https://www.passportindex.org/byRank.php

In practical terms it is.

As I queue up at the non EU line at Schiphol with the Russians and the Turks for my shiny blue passports to be stamped by immigration, Beverley C. breezes past me in the Schengen line jauntily waving her Irish EU passport. As she checks into the Amstel Hotel I am still heading for the airport taxi rank.

I repeat the comments detailed above. It’s a foundational argument that gets us that want to rejoin nowhere.

Anyway, Ireland’s not in Schengen.

DougSeal said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DougSeal said:

CarlottaVance said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Roger said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Roger said:

To days news is wall to wall financial crisis with the elephant in the room being Brexit. Now that Johnson has gone commentators and others seem much less restrained in mentioning the great unmentionable. There's hardly anyone still talking it up or even prepared to defend it.

Surely someone has got to mobilise the 17,000,000 (Now more likely to be 25,000,000) or they're going to get bounced around by this economic storm like everyone else and without even a loin cloth.

Time for someone with courage or ambition to go for it.

Personally, I have given up on the UK rejoining. I found it a lot easier to let my UK passport expire and just start using my Irish one.

Are you allowed to have both? A friend has just got herself an Austrian passport which they'll give to any family of Austrian refugees from WW2 however many generations down the line and they can keep their UK one. You're very fortunate. In France people with properties are trying to invent the most crazy schemes to circumvent the rules. The French are now bringing in a non dom property tax which you can't blame them for doing. If Boris ever finds his way to the Cote d'Azur he'll be strung up

The Irish do not mind their citizens being dual passport holders - and a lot of other countries are the same.

The blue UK passport is much devalued since we left. And that was allegedly our key to sovereignty and the reason for leaving. What a joke!

I wouldn’t say the U.K. passport power ranked as 3rd in the world was “much devalued” - ahead of the USA, Canada and on a par with Ireland….

https://www.passportindex.org/byRank.php

People tend to confuse a passport with citizenship. They are connected but not at all the same thing.

True. I have had dual citizenship all my life, but Brexit made me apply for my Irish passport.

Jesus. Yes, we know, you have Irish Citizenship, you never cease to tell is, like every other Remainer with at least one Hibernian grandparent. Would you like a medal as well? You all bang on about it so often it sounds as if you’d like some special prize for your accident of birth.

The rest of us have to try and fix this situation and listening to your “I’m all right Jack” tales isn’t helping and doesn’t help. Sure, you don’t think Brexit will be reversed, but you (as you keep reminding us) don’t have to worry about it do you? It’s not helpful, it just fights the last battle, and proudly proclaims an abstention from the next.

i think Rejoiners have not focused on the reality of the EU as it is now. It has already moved on from Brexit. Legislation is now pouring out of Brussels (see the journalism spyware stuff below). Brussels is trying to intrusively regulate everything from AI to crypto to the care of dormice, and it is still constantly expanding its powers. eg They have now pooled debt to pay for Covid

We don't notice this precisely because we are no longer in it. If we'd had a narrow Remain win the clamour for Brexit would now be defeaning, and the demands for a second vote would be overwhelming the Tory Party

On that basis I do not believe we will Rejoin. The other reason is that if we are ever so desperate that we ask to rejoin, the French and the Irish (and maybe others) will threaten us with a veto until we agree to terms so invidious we will abandon the task

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

bondegezou said:

CarlottaVance said:

WillG said:

CarlottaVance said:

There’s an old joke from Glasgow:

“Are you Catholic or Protestant?”
“Neither, I’m Atheist.”
“Aye, but are you a Catholic Atheist or a Protestant Atheist?”

That’s the problem with ‘cis’ - it buys into the belief system, it assumes you have a ‘gender identity’……

Insisting everyone has a ‘gender identity’ is akin to insisting everyone has a ‘soul’. It’s not insulting in itself, but if you keep on about it and can’t grasp that some people don’t share your belief, then they might get narked at you.

“But ‘cis’ just means the opposite of ‘trans’!”

Great - so what does ‘trans’ mean? It can’t be defined without referring to ‘gender identity’, a metaphysical belief.

https://twitter.com/bencooper/status/1671533767691759621?s=20

That's rubbish. Of course everyone has a gender identity. I think of myself as male. Even if you are the sort of person that thinks all trans people are mentally deluded, any everyone by rights should have the same gender and biological sex, gender identity still provably exists. In the way that a soul isn't provable.

How do you prove your gender? How do you test for it?

Your sex is in your chromosomes and for the overwhelming majority demonstrated in their reproductive organs. It’s binary in the overwhelming majority of mammals.

How many genders are there?

107?

https://www.sexualdiversity.org/edu/1111.php

If not, how many? And how do you prove it?

Gender is a social construct and a belief system.

Unsurprisingly some are rejecting compelled belief and compelled speech.

If we accept gender is a social construct, does that mean that we should ignore gender in law? Should we support or make life difficult for people who want to change gender?

Ethnicity is a social construct. Religion is a social construct. These things have protection in law (albeit different ones). Money is a social construct. Democracy is a social construct. Lots of interesting and nice things are social constructs!

Religion certainly shouldn't be protected by law, nor ethnicity. Democracy and money aren't protected already you are free to advocate for a dictatorship or a cash free society based on barter

There's a big difference between advocating for political change and just doing stuff.

You can advocate for dictatorship.
You can advocate for racist policies too.

But you can't just set yourself up as a dictator. And you can't go around enacting racist workplace policies for example. Because the laws forbid those.

Freedom to say what you think should be the case is different to acting like it's already the case.

So if I walk round with an "( insert deity of choice) is an arsehole" tshirt on do you think the likely result is a) I will get a few people shaking their head or b) I get arrested

I suspect we all know the answer is b)

So it is ok to proclaim "(deity of choice) is great" but not the opposite. Each are equally valid as opinions

Jesus is an arsehole.
Mohammad is an arsehole.
Abraham, Gautama Buddha, Rishabhadeva: arseholes.
And any gods they tell us about: arseholes.

...and may your God go with you.

dixiedean said:

Mexicanpete said:

dixiedean said:

Mexicanpete said:

Casino_Royale said:

Mexicanpete said:

Casino_Royale said:

Heathener said:

To @MikeSmithson I'd add that this is not just about Boris, although some of it is.

Boris is definitely part of the problem because he reached a wing of voters, mainly northern red wall ones, who Sunak not only doesn't reach, but whom he has alienated. Boris has not gone away. Or, rather, by his exile he is reminding them of what they no longer have. Remember, they did not vote for Sunak. Every time Boris sticks his column in the Mail he's enflaming them against Sunak. These are also largely the 2019 stayaways who Mike has been warning about.

But there are two other whammies

One is the mortgage crisis, which is awful.

The other inflation, ditto.

And what are Labour going to do about inflation?

I haven't seem any convincing answers to @Pulpstar 's excellent questions this morning.

There is a tipping point where the evils of inflation have to be balanced against the evils of repossessions and recession.

Interest rates are the BoE's only weapon. I heard the analogy that it's like playing the US Masters with just a 3 iron.

I suspect Reeves with her backstory may be more imaginative than Sunak and Hunt. I hope she is anyway.

So, she either has to do exactly the same thing she's currently attacking the Government for doing, or we're crossing our fingers and hoping she has some magic beans instead then?

Right!

I don't know.

I suspect if you wanted to point a finger at anyone for dropping the ball it's Bailey and the BoE. They were advised to raise interest rates far earlier than they did. Maybe a quick, shorter, sharper shock would be more effective.

You could also question Hunt as to why he has only met the mortgage provider Lobby today when the likes of Martin Lewis were advising action would be needed in 2023 last November.

Maybe Reeves has some ideas, maybe not. Your lot are clean out of them.

On which point. What is the point of a quarter or half point rise tomorrow when everyone knows there will be at least two more?
They are priced in.
Why not a full point tomorrow?
Get it over and done with.
Can someone explain?

That makes sense. They can always claw some back if it looks excessive down the line. Don't you think it might be a full half a percentage point tomorrow?

Yes.
It might be. Would be surprised though.
Every move has been timid.

It needs to be 0.5% but they have not hurried themselves in putting the rates up.

Notwithstanding this small chance of 0.75%

bondegezou said:

Interesting thread on food inflation: https://twitter.com/leobarasi/status/1671494919704150018

It explains why many food prices have risen relative to other goods and services. But it does not explain the more general rise in prices, which is down to monetary incontinence

I posted this observation this morning and now see the Grauniad talking about it too

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/jun/21/1-point-4m-uk-households-huge-hit-to-finances-mortgage-timebomb-payments-fifth-disposale-income

All that money which will be swallowed by bigger mortgage payments is money taken from the economy. Money no longer being spent on products and services, which will cost people jobs...

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

DougSeal said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DougSeal said:

CarlottaVance said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Roger said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Roger said:

To days news is wall to wall financial crisis with the elephant in the room being Brexit. Now that Johnson has gone commentators and others seem much less restrained in mentioning the great unmentionable. There's hardly anyone still talking it up or even prepared to defend it.

Surely someone has got to mobilise the 17,000,000 (Now more likely to be 25,000,000) or they're going to get bounced around by this economic storm like everyone else and without even a loin cloth.

Time for someone with courage or ambition to go for it.

Personally, I have given up on the UK rejoining. I found it a lot easier to let my UK passport expire and just start using my Irish one.

Are you allowed to have both? A friend has just got herself an Austrian passport which they'll give to any family of Austrian refugees from WW2 however many generations down the line and they can keep their UK one. You're very fortunate. In France people with properties are trying to invent the most crazy schemes to circumvent the rules. The French are now bringing in a non dom property tax which you can't blame them for doing. If Boris ever finds his way to the Cote d'Azur he'll be strung up

The Irish do not mind their citizens being dual passport holders - and a lot of other countries are the same.

The blue UK passport is much devalued since we left. And that was allegedly our key to sovereignty and the reason for leaving. What a joke!

I wouldn’t say the U.K. passport power ranked as 3rd in the world was “much devalued” - ahead of the USA, Canada and on a par with Ireland….

https://www.passportindex.org/byRank.php

People tend to confuse a passport with citizenship. They are connected but not at all the same thing.

True. I have had dual citizenship all my life, but Brexit made me apply for my Irish passport.

Jesus. Yes, we know, you have Irish Citizenship, you never cease to tell is, like every other Remainer with at least one Hibernian grandparent. Would you like a medal as well? You all bang on about it so often it sounds as if you’d like some special prize for your accident of birth.

The rest of us have to try and fix this situation and listening to your “I’m all right Jack” tales isn’t helping and doesn’t help. Sure, you don’t think Brexit will be reversed, but you (as you keep reminding us) don’t have to worry about it do you? It’s not helpful, it just fights the last battle, and proudly proclaims an abstention from the next.

i think Rejoiners have not focused on the reality of the EU as it is now. It has already moved on from Brexit. Legislation is now pouring out of Brussels (see the journalism spyware stuff below). Brussels is trying to intrusively regulate everything from AI to crypto to the care of dormice, and it is still constantly expanding its powers. eg They have now pooled debt to pay for Covid

We don't notice this precisely because we are no longer in it. If we'd had a narrow Remain win the clamour for Brexit would now be defeaning, and the demands for a second vote would be overwhelming the Tory Party

On that basis I do not believe we will Rejoin. The other reason is that if we are ever so desperate that we ask to rejoin, the French and the Irish (and maybe others) will threaten us with a veto until we agree to terms so invidious we will abandon the task

Your analysis is only cogent if the “legislation pouring out of Brussels”, as you inelegantly put it, fails to make the lives of citizens in the EU better than the “legislation seeping out of Westminster”, as I inelegantly put it, makes us. For example, your journalism spyware story can be countered with the possibility that WhatsApp will pull out of the U.K. (https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-whatsapp-could-quit-the-uk-over-the-online-safety-bill/) over the Online Safety Bill. Which of those legislative digital intrusions impacts people more?

People link Brexit less to legislation pouring out of the Belgian capital as they do shit pouring onto our beaches.

But that's it. If you are angry that British legislation has made WhatsApp pull out, then you sack the government at the next election, and get a new govrnment which will reverse the stupid law

That's democracy. That's why and how it works

What do you do, as an EU citizen, if you hate an EU law?

*tumbleweed*

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Taz said:

viewcode said:

Taz said:

viewcode said:

Taz said:

viewcode said:

Beibheirli_C said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

I am Horse.

I am Weasel

I am Groot

I am your father...

I am the oncoming storm...

I am death incarnate...

I am vengeance. I am the night...

And of course... I'm Batman.

So which one of you is Spartacus?

I think we are all Spartacus in some way. Although hopefully not the "crucified on the Appian Way" way, because that would be...bad.

I am he as you are he and you are me and we are all together…..

Third Doctor: "...Jo, it's quite simple. I am he and he is me"
Jo Grant: "...and we are all together, koo koo kichoo"
Second Doctor: "What"
Jo Grant: "It's a song by the Beatles..."

(The Three Doctors, 1973)

Yay, You’ve redeemed yourself after the Terror of the Autons miss 😀😀😀😀

Here’s some seventies kitsch.

https://youtu.be/DNuco0p55dc

Thank you for the link, which I watched with gr...oh my goodness it was awful. Well, to be honest, it wasn't bad, and certainly not rubbish, but very of its time.

Two weeks before: Mike and Bernie Winters! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foGD5DbLJck

Bloody hell, Peter Gordeno is in that one ! From UFO.

I am going to grab some of these tomorrow as I am working from home. YouTube has some good stuff being posted. There’s an account called Nostalgia who posts some great one off plays and dramas.

Loved the original Mike Batt theme, there’s a TOTP that exists with him playing it and, Pans People are dancing to it.

I did watch that play for tomorrow, Crimes, I think you posted. I got it off thebox a few years ago. It was hard going apart from the lovely Sylvestra La Touzel.

I saw Peter Gordeno at Twickenham on Saturday playing keyboards and bass guitar for Depeche Mode!

As a hologram or a reanimated cadaver ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Gordeno_(musician)

Not https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Gordeno . The one Taz meant is the link I gave, an actor/singer/performer from the 1960/70s. The one Sunil meant is the link he gave, a musician from some years later.

RochdalePioneers said:

I posted this observation this morning and now see the Grauniad talking about it too

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/jun/21/1-point-4m-uk-households-huge-hit-to-finances-mortgage-timebomb-payments-fifth-disposale-income

All that money which will be swallowed by bigger mortgage payments is money taken from the economy. Money no longer being spent on products and services, which will cost people jobs...

Isn't that the masterplan?

RochdalePioneers said:

I posted this observation this morning and now see the Grauniad talking about it too

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/jun/21/1-point-4m-uk-households-huge-hit-to-finances-mortgage-timebomb-payments-fifth-disposale-income

All that money which will be swallowed by bigger mortgage payments is money taken from the economy. Money no longer being spent on products and services, which will cost people jobs...

I don't disagree but where does that money actually go?

I assume: higher savers interest payments, higher bank profits/dividends, higher bank bonuses. None of which will do much to keep the economy going.

RochdalePioneers said:

I posted this observation this morning and now see the Grauniad talking about it too

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/jun/21/1-point-4m-uk-households-huge-hit-to-finances-mortgage-timebomb-payments-fifth-disposale-income

All that money which will be swallowed by bigger mortgage payments is money taken from the economy. Money no longer being spent on products and services, which will cost people jobs...

It will indeed but there are a considerable number who benefit from higher interest rates

It is a terrible time for fixed rate mortgage holders on a par with the 1990s, with repossession and negative equity beckoning and most likely a fall in house prices if it mirrors those days 30 years ago