politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Generally the oldies are the key group for UKIP yet in the
Comments
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Mr. Socrates, np.
Hmm. With Caterham's woes I was tempted by an early bet in their drivers not to be classified in the US (race weekend begins in about 8 days), but the market doesn't exist on Betfair and Ladbrokes haven't put it up yet.0 -
OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.0
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The Nokia one has an extraordinary camera - a million megapixels, or near it.Plato said:OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
Other than that...no idea!0 -
This is a good poll for UKIP. They're not home and dry, but odds of 1/4 or 1/5 on them are now about right. The key is that this is the second poll by a different pollster showing them with a decent lead.0
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And I remember the attacks directed at Catholics before the Papal Visit in 2010.FalseFlag said:
We all remember when the Dutch lefty establishment incited the murder of Pim Fortuyn. The sort of rhetoric directed at Ukip is dispicable.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
What was noticeable was the number of misspellings on the anti-Catholic banners at events. You will always get feeble-minded individuals wishing to feel part of a group turning on a vilified minority.0 -
Evidence clearly makes no difference to you.SouthamObserver said:
So no evidence at all then.FalseFlag said:
If you could see what I get in my mailbox every now and then, regarding threats, and so on, well that doesn't exactly cheer you up, and the Dutch government – and I think it's a 'bloody shame' – helps create a climate demonizing me personally. And if something were to happen to me – and I'm glad that you're giving me the chance (to say this) – if something were to happen to me, then they will be partly responsible, and they can't just walk away saying "I'm not the one who committed the attack." They helped to create this climate (this atmosphere), and it needs to stop.SouthamObserver said:
Can you provide examples of the Dutch lefty establishment inciting the murder of Pim Fortuyn, or are you just making that up because you do not like people who are left-wing?FalseFlag said:
We all remember when the Dutch lefty establishment incited the murder of Pim Fortuyn. The sort of rhetoric directed at Ukip is dispicable.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
Appearance on the Dutch-TV program "Jensen!", a couple of months before being assassinated.
You can watch the YouTube if you want.
http://www.isteve.com/2002_Did_Pim_Fortuyn_Have_It_Coming.htm
Given the long history of violence perpetrated by the extreme left this demonisation needs to stop.
But I do agree that both the extreme left and the extreme right across the world have long histories of violent behaviour. However, the idea that either side needs to be incited by anyone is pretty laughable. They behave violently because they are thugs that have little interest in the individual.0 -
Depends how much you want to spend.Plato said:OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
The Moto G is generally considered to be excellent value at ~£130, but more expensive smartphones will normally have better cameras if you're willing to spend £400 or more.0 -
No, you just cannot provide any evidence. If you could I would consider it.FalseFlag said:
Evidence clearly makes no difference to you.SouthamObserver said:
So no evidence at all then.FalseFlag said:
If you could see what I get in my mailbox every now and then, regarding threats, and so on, well that doesn't exactly cheer you up, and the Dutch government – and I think it's a 'bloody shame' – helps create a climate demonizing me personally. And if something were to happen to me – and I'm glad that you're giving me the chance (to say this) – if something were to happen to me, then they will be partly responsible, and they can't just walk away saying "I'm not the one who committed the attack." They helped to create this climate (this atmosphere), and it needs to stop.SouthamObserver said:
Can you provide examples of the Dutch lefty establishment inciting the murder of Pim Fortuyn, or are you just making that up because you do not like people who are left-wing?FalseFlag said:
We all remember when the Dutch lefty establishment incited the murder of Pim Fortuyn. The sort of rhetoric directed at Ukip is dispicable.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
Appearance on the Dutch-TV program "Jensen!", a couple of months before being assassinated.
You can watch the YouTube if you want.
http://www.isteve.com/2002_Did_Pim_Fortuyn_Have_It_Coming.htm
Given the long history of violence perpetrated by the extreme left this demonisation needs to stop.
But I do agree that both the extreme left and the extreme right across the world have long histories of violent behaviour. However, the idea that either side needs to be incited by anyone is pretty laughable. They behave violently because they are thugs that have little interest in the individual.
I get it: you do not like left wing people. But to blame them for murders is like blaming right wing people for inciting what Breivik did in Norway or for the Oklahoma bombing. I guess that if you accept that the right wing establishment in Norway and the US, respectively, incited those attacks you will at least be consistent. Though even then I would have to disagree with you.
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Members of all political parties get attacked by nutters (I did when I was a Conservative)). Brighton is both very left-wing, and, as a seaside town, has had many people with mental health issues sent there by other authorities. I wouldn't read too much into this incident.Ninoinoz said:
Enemies of freedom, more like.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
We saw the attacks on UKIP's meetings during the Euro Elections.
They have lost the argument and violence is all they have left.
BTW, this is not a new occurrence, but the Tory Government stands by and does nothing. They really are the nasty party.-1 -
I don't believe either were politicians and were subject to demonisation by the media and political establishment.SouthamObserver said:
No, you just cannot provide any evidence. If you could I would consider it.FalseFlag said:
Evidence clearly makes no difference to you.SouthamObserver said:
So no evidence at all then.FalseFlag said:
If you could see what I get in my mailbox every now and then, regarding threats, and so on, well that doesn't exactly cheer you up, and the Dutch government – and I think it's a 'bloody shame' – helps create a climate demonizing me personally. And if something were to happen to me – and I'm glad that you're giving me the chance (to say this) – if something were to happen to me, then they will be partly responsible, and they can't just walk away saying "I'm not the one who committed the attack." They helped to create this climate (this atmosphere), and it needs to stop.SouthamObserver said:
Can you provide examples of the Dutch lefty establishment inciting the murder of Pim Fortuyn, or are you just making that up because you do not like people who are left-wing?FalseFlag said:
We all remember when the Dutch lefty establishment incited the murder of Pim Fortuyn. The sort of rhetoric directed at Ukip is dispicable.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
Appearance on the Dutch-TV program "Jensen!", a couple of months before being assassinated.
You can watch the YouTube if you want.
http://www.isteve.com/2002_Did_Pim_Fortuyn_Have_It_Coming.htm
Given the long history of violence perpetrated by the extreme left this demonisation needs to stop.
But I do agree that both the extreme left and the extreme right across the world have long histories of violent behaviour. However, the idea that either side needs to be incited by anyone is pretty laughable. They behave violently because they are thugs that have little interest in the individual.
I get it: you do not like left wing people. But to blame them for murders is like blaming right wing people for inciting what Breivik did in Norway or for the Oklahoma bombing. I guess that if you accept that the right wing establishment in Norway and the US, respectively, incited those attacks you will at least be consistent. Though even then I would have to disagree with you.
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And @TOPPING Many thanks - that's great. What is a *mini* phone?
The fashion was for small phones, I've been using an ancient Nokia 6300 after dropping my other one in the sink - today's ones seem enormous in comparison. Are either type vulnerable to arse-dialling? My Blackberry Storm was useless and rang everyone in my phonebook.felix said:
I love my Samsung Galaxy S4 mini.Plato said:OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
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Good post. But with 2 out 3 Brighton MPs Tories, I think it is an oversimplification to say that Brighton is very left wing. Its much more mixed.Sean_F said:
Members of all political parties get attacked by nutters (I did when I was a Conservative)). Brighton is both very left-wing, and, as a seaside town, has had many people with mental health issues sent there by other authorities. I wouldn't read too much into this incident.Ninoinoz said:
Enemies of freedom, more like.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
We saw the attacks on UKIP's meetings during the Euro Elections.
They have lost the argument and violence is all they have left.
BTW, this is not a new occurrence, but the Tory Government stands by and does nothing. They really are the nasty party.
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Will have a looksee at that one too. Thanx.OblitusSumMe said:
Depends how much you want to spend.Plato said:OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
The Moto G is generally considered to be excellent value at ~£130, but more expensive smartphones will normally have better cameras if you're willing to spend £400 or more.0 -
But it's not an isolated incident, is it?Sean_F said:
Members of all political parties get attacked by nutters (I did when I was a Conservative)). Brighton is both very left-wing, and, as a seaside town, has had many people with mental health issues sent there by other authorities. I wouldn't read too much into this incident.Ninoinoz said:
Enemies of freedom, more like.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
We saw the attacks on UKIP's meetings during the Euro Elections.
They have lost the argument and violence is all they have left.
BTW, this is not a new occurrence, but the Tory Government stands by and does nothing. They really are the nasty party.
Farage in Edinburgh, UKIP meetings during the Euros.
Is there a more inappropriately named organisation than Hope Not Hate?0 -
As Sean_F said, there are unfortunately a few nutters everywhere. There's nothing in the report to suggest that this is anything other than an isolated incident. It's not as though some Green version of the Ku Klux Klan is marching through Brighton with flaming crosses, seeking out uppity kippers to lynch. Or even any particular evidence that this was a member or supporter of any one particular party.
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Dodging the existential question, eh?SouthamObserver said:
The Labour core is clearly people you do not like.
Who, or what, are the Labour Party for?
If the working class are deserting, who are they for?
Can you simultaneously be for the average man and be pro-immigration when it suppresses the average man's wages and damages access to public infrastructure?
Can you be tough on immigration and yet dependent on ethnic votes in many areas?
Can you be a statist party when everyone demands devolution?
Can you be the party of big spending when the cupboard is bare?
Labour have no real idea of who they are for. The 1% in now anyone on £42,000.
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I love my moto G. Camera not great compared to iphones and such but has flash, video etc.Plato said:Will have a looksee at that one too. Thanx.
OblitusSumMe said:
Depends how much you want to spend.Plato said:OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
The Moto G is generally considered to be excellent value at ~£130, but more expensive smartphones will normally have better cameras if you're willing to spend £400 or more.
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UKIP seriously need to avoid the paranoid victim mentality that sees every incident as a coordinated attack upon them as a party. Most of the time it is simply an act of random idiocy which happens to all parties.antifrank said:As Sean_F said, there are unfortunately a few nutters everywhere. There's nothing in the report to suggest that this is anything other than an isolated incident. It's not as though some Green version of the Ku Klux Klan is marching through Brighton with flaming crosses, seeking out uppity kippers to lynch. Or even any particular evidence that this was a member or supporter of any one particular party.
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You are stretching my words to say something I did not mean. But certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society.felix said:
I have no problem condemning such attacks but to pretend that named politicians who have criticised UKIP are responsible is simply unjustified. For one thing it detaches from the perpetrators responsibility for their actions. I defend the right of UKIP to free speech when I condemn their message. I don't blame Farage for attacks on Muslims.Socrates said:
Oh, come on. When the media and mainstream politicians constantly undergo a smear campaign about UKIP's views being racist, neo-fascist and illegitimate, it means that their supporters out there feel it is acceptable to take extreme measures to silence them. The fact no-one else here has condemned the attack says it all. Audreyanne even responded that they brought hate on themselves.felix said:
What an extraordinary and disgraceful comment. Whatever is inside your head really ought to stay there.Socrates said:@MikeK awful to hear. I'm sure the supporters of other parties will join me in condemning the attack. It's very sad that political leaders like David Cameron and Chukka Umunna have created an atmosphere of hate against UKIP that encourages such attacks to happen.
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I don't understand why this is bad news for Mr Reckless. Usually the left attack UKIP by pointing out their great reliance on the over 65 vote.
What must worry Labour more is the consistent polling that shows they aren't getting the 18-24 vote.0 -
Xperia Z3 Compact is the best "small" phone on the market currently. It can be had for around £325 online. Best in class camera and a 4 day battery.Plato said:OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
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But, I'm sure you could find as many incidents of Conservative, Labour, and Lib Dem activists being assaulted.Ninoinoz said:
But it's not an isolated incident, is it?Sean_F said:
Members of all political parties get attacked by nutters (I did when I was a Conservative)). Brighton is both very left-wing, and, as a seaside town, has had many people with mental health issues sent there by other authorities. I wouldn't read too much into this incident.Ninoinoz said:
Enemies of freedom, more like.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
We saw the attacks on UKIP's meetings during the Euro Elections.
They have lost the argument and violence is all they have left.
BTW, this is not a new occurrence, but the Tory Government stands by and does nothing. They really are the nasty party.
Farage in Edinburgh, UKIP meetings during the Euros.
Is there a more inappropriately named organisation than Hope Not Hate?
UKIP activists will be targeted by extreme left fanatics, but so will Conservatives and Lib Dems. Labour activists will be targeted by the extreme right. All will be targeted by weirdos.
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That'll be why UKIP's been invited to participate in the 2015 GE debates while the Greens and SNP haven't. Or not.Socrates said:
You are stretching my words to say something I did not mean. But certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society.felix said:
I have no problem condemning such attacks but to pretend that named politicians who have criticised UKIP are responsible is simply unjustified. For one thing it detaches from the perpetrators responsibility for their actions. I defend the right of UKIP to free speech when I condemn their message. I don't blame Farage for attacks on Muslims.Socrates said:
Oh, come on. When the media and mainstream politicians constantly undergo a smear campaign about UKIP's views being racist, neo-fascist and illegitimate, it means that their supporters out there feel it is acceptable to take extreme measures to silence them. The fact no-one else here has condemned the attack says it all. Audreyanne even responded that they brought hate on themselves.felix said:
What an extraordinary and disgraceful comment. Whatever is inside your head really ought to stay there.Socrates said:@MikeK awful to hear. I'm sure the supporters of other parties will join me in condemning the attack. It's very sad that political leaders like David Cameron and Chukka Umunna have created an atmosphere of hate against UKIP that encourages such attacks to happen.
Grow up and grow some.0 -
There is a great song by nirvana called "school" which is based on Kurt cobains disappointment at moving to Olympia which he thought would be full of bohemian artist types with a free and non judgemental approach to society only to find it was full of bohemian artist types with the same small town mindset and societal hierachy clique that he found in his hometown Aberdeen, WashingtonMikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
Brighton is very much like that in my experience0 -
Most smartphone cameras are fairly decent for the point-and-shooter; if photography is important to you, you might be best going for one of the previous generation (such as the S4 or 5 mentioned below), and spending the £100-200 you have saved on an evening photography course.Plato said:OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
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I was going off the 268 "weighted base" but yes that is my pointdavid_herdson said:
It'll be more than that because it's not internally weighted.Pulpstar said:Oh the MoE on the 65+ subsample will be 5.97...
And yet my analysis of a series of Scottish subsamples was dismissed as a nonsense I think...0 -
I doubt as many incidents, certainly of Labour activists being attacked.Sean_F said:
But, I'm sure you could find as many incidents of Conservative, Labour, and Lib Dem activists being assaulted.Ninoinoz said:
But it's not an isolated incident, is it?Sean_F said:
Members of all political parties get attacked by nutters (I did when I was a Conservative)). Brighton is both very left-wing, and, as a seaside town, has had many people with mental health issues sent there by other authorities. I wouldn't read too much into this incident.Ninoinoz said:
Enemies of freedom, more like.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
We saw the attacks on UKIP's meetings during the Euro Elections.
They have lost the argument and violence is all they have left.
BTW, this is not a new occurrence, but the Tory Government stands by and does nothing. They really are the nasty party.
Farage in Edinburgh, UKIP meetings during the Euros.
Is there a more inappropriately named organisation than Hope Not Hate?
UKIP activists will be targeted by extreme left fanatics, but so will Conservatives and Lib Dems. Labour activists will be targeted by the extreme right. All will be targeted by weirdos.0 -
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You directly blamed Cameron and Umunna for creating an atmosphere of hate that encourages such attacks to happen. WTF did you mean?Socrates said:
You are stretching my words to say something I did not mean. But certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society.felix said:
I have no problem condemning such attacks but to pretend that named politicians who have criticised UKIP are responsible is simply unjustified. For one thing it detaches from the perpetrators responsibility for their actions. I defend the right of UKIP to free speech when I condemn their message. I don't blame Farage for attacks on Muslims.Socrates said:
Oh, come on. When the media and mainstream politicians constantly undergo a smear campaign about UKIP's views being racist, neo-fascist and illegitimate, it means that their supporters out there feel it is acceptable to take extreme measures to silence them. The fact no-one else here has condemned the attack says it all. Audreyanne even responded that they brought hate on themselves.felix said:
What an extraordinary and disgraceful comment. Whatever is inside your head really ought to stay there.Socrates said:@MikeK awful to hear. I'm sure the supporters of other parties will join me in condemning the attack. It's very sad that political leaders like David Cameron and Chukka Umunna have created an atmosphere of hate against UKIP that encourages such attacks to happen.
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You're joking, right? It was the TV studios that invited them. David Cameron is actively trying to get them excluded.david_herdson said:
That'll be why UKIP's been invited to participate in the 2015 GE debates while the Greens and SNP haven't. Or not.Socrates said:
You are stretching my words to say something I did not mean. But certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society.felix said:
I have no problem condemning such attacks but to pretend that named politicians who have criticised UKIP are responsible is simply unjustified. For one thing it detaches from the perpetrators responsibility for their actions. I defend the right of UKIP to free speech when I condemn their message. I don't blame Farage for attacks on Muslims.Socrates said:
Oh, come on. When the media and mainstream politicians constantly undergo a smear campaign about UKIP's views being racist, neo-fascist and illegitimate, it means that their supporters out there feel it is acceptable to take extreme measures to silence them. The fact no-one else here has condemned the attack says it all. Audreyanne even responded that they brought hate on themselves.felix said:
What an extraordinary and disgraceful comment. Whatever is inside your head really ought to stay there.Socrates said:@MikeK awful to hear. I'm sure the supporters of other parties will join me in condemning the attack. It's very sad that political leaders like David Cameron and Chukka Umunna have created an atmosphere of hate against UKIP that encourages such attacks to happen.
Grow up and grow some.0 -
Save us from whining UKIP victimhood.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
Democracy involves a bit of rough and tumble.
You've had far too easy a ride from a pliant media and are now experiencing the kind of backlash what activists from all Parties have experienced for decades.
Honestly the shrill whingeing from UKIP sources on twitter is tedious. Act like adults and grow a pair.0 -
Sometimes it's worth thinking outside the box.tory_up_north said:
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FalseFlag said:
I doubt as many incidents, certainly of Labour activists being attacked.Sean_F said:
But, I'm sure you could find as many incidents of Conservative, Labour, and Lib Dem activists being assaulted.Ninoinoz said:
But it's not an isolated incident, is it?Sean_F said:
Members of all political parties get attacked by nutters (I did when I was a Conservative)). Brighton is both very left-wing, and, as a seaside town, has had many people with mental health issues sent there by other authorities. I wouldn't read too much into this incident.Ninoinoz said:
Enemies of freedom, more like.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
We saw the attacks on UKIP's meetings during the Euro Elections.
They have lost the argument and violence is all they have left.
BTW, this is not a new occurrence, but the Tory Government stands by and does nothing. They really are the nasty party.
Farage in Edinburgh, UKIP meetings during the Euros.
Is there a more inappropriately named organisation than Hope Not Hate?
UKIP activists will be targeted by extreme left fanatics, but so will Conservatives and Lib Dems. Labour activists will be targeted by the extreme right. All will be targeted by weirdos.
Labour pols regularly get egged. Activists of all parties take abuse.0 -
Mr. F, I can't help but feel UKIP would gain more mainstream acceptance if it adopted the Morris Dancer approach towards justice, and moving the emphasis away from community service and towards flinging miscreants from a trebuchet into the North Sea.0
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He's talking about whether this "atmopshere" you're blaming actually existsSocrates said:
You're joking, right? It was the TV studios that invited them. David Cameron is actively trying to get them excluded.david_herdson said:
That'll be why UKIP's been invited to participate in the 2015 GE debates while the Greens and SNP haven't. Or not.Socrates said:
You are stretching my words to say something I did not mean. But certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society.felix said:
I have no problem condemning such attacks but to pretend that named politicians who have criticised UKIP are responsible is simply unjustified. For one thing it detaches from the perpetrators responsibility for their actions. I defend the right of UKIP to free speech when I condemn their message. I don't blame Farage for attacks on Muslims.Socrates said:
Oh, come on. When the media and mainstream politicians constantly undergo a smear campaign about UKIP's views being racist, neo-fascist and illegitimate, it means that their supporters out there feel it is acceptable to take extreme measures to silence them. The fact no-one else here has condemned the attack says it all. Audreyanne even responded that they brought hate on themselves.felix said:
What an extraordinary and disgraceful comment. Whatever is inside your head really ought to stay there.Socrates said:@MikeK awful to hear. I'm sure the supporters of other parties will join me in condemning the attack. It's very sad that political leaders like David Cameron and Chukka Umunna have created an atmosphere of hate against UKIP that encourages such attacks to happen.
Grow up and grow some.0 -
Well I read this before I read PB this morning, and now it feels as though it will fit the thread ! Is there a market on next Tory to defect??
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/11181475/Jon-Snow-acted-like-playground-bully-says-Tory-MP.html?WT.mc_id=e_3631564&WT.tsrc=email&etype=frontpage&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_FAM_New_2014_10_23&utm_campaign=3631564
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The 268 is the weighted value of the 65+ subsection within the overall poll, but that subsection won't be internally weighted for e.g. male/female, 2010 VI, social class etc.Pulpstar said:
I was going off the 268 "weighted base" but yes that is my pointdavid_herdson said:
It'll be more than that because it's not internally weighted.Pulpstar said:Oh the MoE on the 65+ subsample will be 5.97...
And yet my analysis of a series of Scottish subsamples was dismissed as a nonsense I think...0 -
UnhingedBenM said:
Save us from whining UKIP victimhood.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
Democracy involves a bit of rough and tumble.
You've had far too easy a ride from a pliant media and are now experiencing the kind of backlash what activists from all Parties have experienced for decades.
Honestly the shrill whingeing from UKIP sources on twitter is tedious. Act like adults and grow a pair.
Klan of
Internet
Paranoia
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Objection; there’s too much rubbish in the North Sea already! And you’d need a powered trebuchet to get them past the wind farms!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F, I can't help but feel UKIP would gain more mainstream acceptance if it adopted the Morris Dancer approach towards justice, and moving the emphasis away from community service and towards flinging miscreants from a trebuchet into the North Sea.
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King Cole, I view the spinning metal blades as an extra deterrent against committing criminal acts.0
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If the oldies are key in Rochester, will they be keen on a couple of flibbertigibbets being selected as the Conservative candidates?0
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The Guardian more in touch with the effect of mass immigration than most on here
Amazing that a party set up by workers inflicted this on them. Like a trade union gone bad
' This year I visited Wisbech – where a third of the 30,000 population is now estimated to be from overseas – and what was happening there spoke loud truths about why free movement has become so politicised. For all that recently arrived families have started to settle, and their children are acquiring new, hybrid identities, there are still glaring problems. Young men from eastern Europe often live four or five to a room, and work impossibly long hours; with echoes of Europe’s macroeconomic asymmetries, the local labour market is divided between insufficient jobs that be can be done by people with families and mortgages, and a surfeit of opportunities for those who will work whenever they are required for a relative pittance.
This creates endless tension. There have also been inevitable problems surrounding how far schools and doctors’ surgeries have been stretched. Is anyone surprised? Moreover, even if such places represent socioeconomic extremes, similar problems surface whenever large-scale migration fuses with the more precarious parts of the economy. In modern Britain, this obviously happens often, and the under-reported consequences of austerity have hardly helped.
What passes for the modern left tends to be far too blase about all this. Perhaps those who reduce people’s worries and fears to mere bigotry should go back to first principles, and consider whether, in such laissez-faire conditions, free movement has been of most benefit to capital or labour. They might also think about the dread spectacle of people from upscale London postcodes passing judgment on people who experience large-scale migration as something real.'
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/22/wisbech-immigration-politicians-david-cameron-ukip-eu-exit0 -
Yes rather like the cybernats they seem to get everywhere and pronounce with the certainty pnly starry eyed messianic fervour confers.BenM said:
Save us from whining UKIP victimhood.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
Democracy involves a bit of rough and tumble.
You've had far too easy a ride from a pliant media and are now experiencing the kind of backlash what activists from all Parties have experienced for decades.
Honestly the shrill whingeing from UKIP sources on twitter is tedious. Act like adults and grow a pair.0 -
My youngest son has just purchased a Moto G 5" and absolutely loves its performance. He bought it unlocked through Amazon for £145.Plato said:OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
He has now moved his number across to Asda Mobile (EE) to take advantage of their pricing and bundles. GiffGaff (O2) are another virtual mobile network that appears to be worth looking at.
The phone and networks are reviewed here... http://kenstechtips.com/
0 -
Q9 on this poll was:TOPPING said:
Democracy, eh.Indigo said:Lets imagine for a second that for whatever reason you are a voter with the settled view that you dont want your country to be in the EU. Who do you realistically vote for ?
If you vote for Dave you might get your referendum, but in 2017 nothing will have been agreed with any other government, nothing will have been ratified, no treaties will have been changed. What you will have will be Dave's proposition, what he hopes to get, which will be far more than he will actually get, and he may actually get nothing of any significance. You will be voting on a wish and a promise, which will be used to try and close down any future vote on the subject for the next decade.
If you vote for Ed you won't get your referendum, but the option will be open for a later government to address the issue as the "people won't have spoken"
If you vote for Nigel, you will still either get no referendum, or a referendum on a wish and a prayer, since Nigel won't lead a government. But there is a chance that someone will need Nigel's votes and he will get some leverage, and you know that someone will be in parliament asking the sort of questions you want asked and trying to stop inconvenient issues being swept under the carpet.
If you dont think that EU membership is the real issue, you could substitute Immigration into the above, Ed won't do anything, Dave will talk a good game but not actually do anything, Nigel might become enough of a thorn in the establishments side to make something happen, or at least draw attention to things not happening.
UKIP is a coalition of the angry and the disenfranchised, they know Ed won't do anything, they think Dave will talk a good line and then not do anything either, the hope Nigel will be able to do something, or failing that slow down the others failure to do something, or failing that just give the establishment a damn good kicking for failing to provide them with a real option which makes them feel enfranchised.
There is one flaw in your argument which is otherwise acute.
If you have a settled view that you want to leave the EU, then vote to get your referendum from Dave and see how many people agree with you.
That is the democratic process.
"I believe David Cameron's promise to hold a referendum on EU membership if the Conservatives win power after next May's General Election" agree/disagree.
Agree: 47%, Disagree 47%.
This seems to break down on class lines. ABC1 mostly agree, C2DE mostly disagree.
UKIP by-election supporters are +30/-68.
p.28
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Rochester_&_Strood_published_tables_Oct_2014.pdf0 -
Yeah, activists getting beaten up is all part of the fun of it all. The mask of Labour is slipping...BenM said:
Save us from whining UKIP victimhood.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
Democracy involves a bit of rough and tumble.0 -
Do Kippers believe DC in his pledge to leave the EPP yet ? I'd say it would be 30-70 against.anotherDave said:
Q9 on this poll was:TOPPING said:
Democracy, eh.Indigo said:Lets imagine for a second that for whatever reason you are a voter with the settled view that you dont want your country to be in the EU. Who do you realistically vote for ?
If you vote for Dave you might get your referendum, but in 2017 nothing will have been agreed with any other government, nothing will have been ratified, no treaties will have been changed. What you will have will be Dave's proposition, what he hopes to get, which will be far more than he will actually get, and he may actually get nothing of any significance. You will be voting on a wish and a promise, which will be used to try and close down any future vote on the subject for the next decade.
If you vote for Ed you won't get your referendum, but the option will be open for a later government to address the issue as the "people won't have spoken"
If you vote for Nigel, you will still either get no referendum, or a referendum on a wish and a prayer, since Nigel won't lead a government. But there is a chance that someone will need Nigel's votes and he will get some leverage, and you know that someone will be in parliament asking the sort of questions you want asked and trying to stop inconvenient issues being swept under the carpet.
If you dont think that EU membership is the real issue, you could substitute Immigration into the above, Ed won't do anything, Dave will talk a good game but not actually do anything, Nigel might become enough of a thorn in the establishments side to make something happen, or at least draw attention to things not happening.
UKIP is a coalition of the angry and the disenfranchised, they know Ed won't do anything, they think Dave will talk a good line and then not do anything either, the hope Nigel will be able to do something, or failing that slow down the others failure to do something, or failing that just give the establishment a damn good kicking for failing to provide them with a real option which makes them feel enfranchised.
There is one flaw in your argument which is otherwise acute.
If you have a settled view that you want to leave the EU, then vote to get your referendum from Dave and see how many people agree with you.
That is the democratic process.
"I believe David Cameron's promise to hold a referendum on EU membership if the Conservatives win power after next May's General Election" agree/disagree.
Agree: 47%, Disagree 47%.
This seems to break down on class lines. ABC1 mostly agree, C2DE mostly disagree.
UKIP by-election supporters are +30/-68.
p.28
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Rochester_&_Strood_published_tables_Oct_2014.pdf
0 -
You said "certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society".Socrates said:
You're joking, right? It was the TV studios that invited them. David Cameron is actively trying to get them excluded.david_herdson said:
That'll be why UKIP's been invited to participate in the 2015 GE debates while the Greens and SNP haven't. Or not.Socrates said:
You are stretching my words to say something I did not mean. But certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society.felix said:
I have no problem condemning such attacks but to pretend that named politicians who have criticised UKIP are responsible is simply unjustified. For one thing it detaches from the perpetrators responsibility for their actions. I defend the right of UKIP to free speech when I condemn their message. I don't blame Farage for attacks on Muslims.Socrates said:
Oh, come on. When the media and mainstream politicians constantly undergo a smear campaign about UKIP's views being racist, neo-fascist and illegitimate, it means that their supporters out there feel it is acceptable to take extreme measures to silence them. The fact no-one else here has condemned the attack says it all. Audreyanne even responded that they brought hate on themselves.felix said:
What an extraordinary and disgraceful comment. Whatever is inside your head really ought to stay there.Socrates said:@MikeK awful to hear. I'm sure the supporters of other parties will join me in condemning the attack. It's very sad that political leaders like David Cameron and Chukka Umunna have created an atmosphere of hate against UKIP that encourages such attacks to happen.
Grow up and grow some.
If that is true, then how could the broadcasters possibly have agreed to invite them on to their platform, when there was no precedent for doing so and when their inclusion and others' exclusion is a matter of controversy? There quite simply is no such atmosphere at large.0 -
Yes, I must say I was guilty of saying Carswell would walk the clacton by election, and recommended bets that turnout would be over 50% and labour would finish thirdRobC said:
Yes rather like the cybernats they seem to get everywhere and pronounce with the certainty pnly starry eyed messianic fervour confers.BenM said:
Save us from whining UKIP victimhood.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
Democracy involves a bit of rough and tumble.
You've had far too easy a ride from a pliant media and are now experiencing the kind of backlash what activists from all Parties have experienced for decades.
Honestly the shrill whingeing from UKIP sources on twitter is tedious. Act like adults and grow a pair.
I also said that Heywood and Middleton would be a lot closer than. People would think
Against the kind of poll denying that has to be seen to be believed I am also one of v few people on here that has called Rochsster as an easy win for Ukip... That remains to be seen but people who disagreed are behind the8 ball betting wise
I also have bets vs many Ukip nay Sayers that they will poll over 10% and bt the lib dems next year... At odds against
So yes I have predicted Ukip would do well.. And they have0 -
The Conservatives EU parliament campaign reeked of dishonesty.TGOHF said:Do Kippers believe DC in his pledge to leave the EPP yet ? I'd say it would be 30-70 against.
They trumpeted opting out of the EU Home and Justice affairs part of the Lisbon Treaty, in the full knowledge that they intended to opt back in after the election.
0 -
Because it's an atmosphere the broadcasters are largely avoiding buying into. That doesn't mean that atmosphere doesn't exist. Just try hanging out in some left-leaning forums. An article in the Telegraph just the other day was headlined "Chuka Umunna on Ukip: vile, abhorrent and un-British". People like him are just not interested in civil discourse.david_herdson said:
You said "certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society".
If that is true, then how could the broadcasters possibly have agreed to invite them on to their platform, when there was no precedent for doing so and when their inclusion and others' exclusion is a matter of controversy? There quite simply is no such atmosphere at large.0 -
James Kirkup has an interesting piece looking at the behaviour of 2005 DNV, and the anticipated behaviour of 2010 DNV.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/telegraphwire/2014/10/22/none-of-the-above-the-role-of-non-voters-in-general-election-2015/0 -
You in the huff because the Kipper Calypso didn't win a MOBO last night ?Socrates said:
Do you believe Cameron will come up with a proposal to significantly limit EU migration by Christmas?TGOHF said:
Do Kippers believe DC in his pledge to leave the EPP yet ? I'd say it would be 30-70 against.
Who will be his boss? Jean-Claude Juncker or the British people?
Cameron would say he is going to have breakfast, eat scrambled egg then the Kippers would cry that he has reneged on his bacon pledge. Just a repository for whinging now.0 -
Ninoinoz said:
The key is a bloody poll with a named Tory candidate!antifrank said:This is a good poll for UKIP. They're not home and dry, but odds of 1/4 or 1/5 on them are now about right. The key is that this is the second poll by a different pollster showing them with a decent lead.
Did the poll mention any names or just parties? If not then the name of the Tory is irrelevant for polling purposes (but obviously not for her).Ninoinoz said:
The key is a bloody poll with a named Tory candidate!antifrank said:This is a good poll for UKIP. They're not home and dry, but odds of 1/4 or 1/5 on them are now about right. The key is that this is the second poll by a different pollster showing them with a decent lead.
0 -
Only Labour have their little private army of stormtroopers in the form of UAF and the ironically named Hope not Hate.Jonathan said:FalseFlag said:
I doubt as many incidents, certainly of Labour activists being attacked.Sean_F said:
But, I'm sure you could find as many incidents of Conservative, Labour, and Lib Dem activists being assaulted.Ninoinoz said:
But it's not an isolated incident, is it?Sean_F said:
Members of all political parties get attacked by nutters (I did when I was a Conservative)). Brighton is both very left-wing, and, as a seaside town, has had many people with mental health issues sent there by other authorities. I wouldn't read too much into this incident.Ninoinoz said:
Enemies of freedom, more like.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
We saw the attacks on UKIP's meetings during the Euro Elections.
They have lost the argument and violence is all they have left.
BTW, this is not a new occurrence, but the Tory Government stands by and does nothing. They really are the nasty party.
Farage in Edinburgh, UKIP meetings during the Euros.
Is there a more inappropriately named organisation than Hope Not Hate?
UKIP activists will be targeted by extreme left fanatics, but so will Conservatives and Lib Dems. Labour activists will be targeted by the extreme right. All will be targeted by weirdos.
Labour pols regularly get egged. Activists of all parties take abuse.0 -
Thats a good point, so actually this analysis of the oldies having UKIP just 1% ahead of the Cons isn't really worth too much ^_~.david_herdson said:
The 268 is the weighted value of the 65+ subsection within the overall poll, but that subsection won't be internally weighted for e.g. male/female, 2010 VI, social class etc.Pulpstar said:
I was going off the 268 "weighted base" but yes that is my pointdavid_herdson said:
It'll be more than that because it's not internally weighted.Pulpstar said:Oh the MoE on the 65+ subsample will be 5.97...
And yet my analysis of a series of Scottish subsamples was dismissed as a nonsense I think...
Looks like UKIP have the cake in terms of polling VI for the seat and the Cons are perhaps left with half a crumb or some such.0 -
Funny. I remember all the Labour activists crying for their mummies and whining, when the Met kettled them. Maybe it's different for Owen Jones and Penny Red.BenM said:
Save us from whining UKIP victimhood.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
Democracy involves a bit of rough and tumble.0 -
I was so disappointed by that.TheWatcher said:
Funny. I remember all the Labour activists crying for their mummies and whining, when the Met kettled them. Maybe that's different.BenM said:
Save us from whining UKIP victimhood.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
Democracy involves a bit of rough and tumble.
I thought kettling meant pouring boiling water on the soap dodgers and the great unwashed.0 -
Are the Kippers, who regularly lambast their opponents as scumbags and traitors, complaining about intemperate language from their opponents?0
-
You raise some interesting points. Where I have a problem with you is that you seem to hive off the working class from ethnic minorities. I don't. I don't mean that this makes you a racist, I mean that you seem to feel the needs of working class people are different based on their ethnicity. I don't share that belief. I believe that low wage earners of whatever ethnicity are having a very bad time of it at the moment, are seeing their living standards fall and are worried about the future for their kids. I also think that this anxiety moves further up the ladder and affects a lot of middle class people of all ethnicities. And it seems to me that a well-led Labour party should have its sights set firmly on this anxiety and how it can be tackled - not in sound-bites, but in sustainable policies. This is where Labour is failing spectacularly. It is clear that a lot of things are not working at the moment. Labour has even identified a few of them. But what it has failed to do under EdM is to advocate credible, coherent solutions. Until it does, it will struggle.chestnut said:
Dodging the existential question, eh?SouthamObserver said:
The Labour core is clearly people you do not like.
Who, or what, are the Labour Party for?
If the working class are deserting, who are they for?
Can you simultaneously be for the average man and be pro-immigration when it suppresses the average man's wages and damages access to public infrastructure?
Can you be tough on immigration and yet dependent on ethnic votes in many areas?
Can you be a statist party when everyone demands devolution?
Can you be the party of big spending when the cupboard is bare?
Labour have no real idea of who they are for. The 1% in now anyone on £42,000.
But in broad terms I'd say that as long as there is an absence of equality of opportunity in the UK and stagnating or falling incomes among those in work there will be a major role for a centre left party which believes that we are stronger if we work together to solve our problems using the state at whatever level (UK-wide, devolved or local) to redistribute wealth from rich to poor and to guarantee high standards of affordable service provision in areas such as health, housing, transport, education etc.
0 -
They'd still be whinging now if that had happened. BenM weeping because his Che Guevara sweatshirt got drenched, and the nasty-wasty policeman hit him with a truncheon.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was so disappointed by that.TheWatcher said:
Funny. I remember all the Labour activists crying for their mummies and whining, when the Met kettled them. Maybe that's different.BenM said:
Save us from whining UKIP victimhood.MikeK said:Good Morning:
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
Democracy involves a bit of rough and tumble.
I thought kettling meant pouring boiling water on the soap dodgers and the great unwashed.0 -
On topic, these polls are good for UKIP but I'd wait for polls naming the Tory candidate and after I have campaigned in the constituency.0
-
That's cool.anotherDave said:
Q9 on this poll was:TOPPING said:
Democracy, eh.Indigo said:Lets imagine for a second that for whatever reason you are a voter with the settled view that you dont want your country to be in the EU. Who do you realistically vote for ?
If you vote for Nigel, you will still either get no referendum, or a referendum on a wish and a prayer, since Nigel won't lead a government. But there is a chance that someone will need Nigel's votes and he will get some leverage, and you know that someone will be in parliament asking the sort of questions you want asked and trying to stop inconvenient issues being swept under the carpet.
If you dont think that EU membership is the real issue, you could substitute Immigration into the above, Ed won't do anything, Dave will talk a good game but not actually do anything, Nigel might become enough of a thorn in the establishments side to make something happen, or at least draw attention to things not happening.
UKIP is a coalition of the angry and the disenfranchised, they know Ed won't do anything, they think Dave will talk a good line and then not do anything either, the hope Nigel will be able to do something, or failing that slow down the others failure to do something, or failing that just give the establishment a damn good kicking for failing to provide them with a real option which makes them feel enfranchised.
There is one flaw in your argument which is otherwise acute.
If you have a settled view that you want to leave the EU, then vote to get your referendum from Dave and see how many people agree with you.
That is the democratic process.
"I believe David Cameron's promise to hold a referendum on EU membership if the Conservatives win power after next May's General Election" agree/disagree.
Agree: 47%, Disagree 47%.
This seems to break down on class lines. ABC1 mostly agree, C2DE mostly disagree.
UKIP by-election supporters are +30/-68.
p.28
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Rochester_&_Strood_published_tables_Oct_2014.pdf
Dave looked us all in the eye, promised us a referendum, perhaps the most categorical thing he has done in office (and I am not turning a blind eye to his spine's jelly-like tendencies), he knows he will be out on his ear if he reneges, it will be yes or no, not a shade of grey and people don't believe him.
Fine.
They are entitled to not believe him and there is nothing he or they can do to prove it one way or the other. Let's have those 47% vote Kipper or Lab or anything else and then it won't matter if Dave was ever going to make good on his promise.
Of course neither will there be a referendum, but those 47% will have made their point and presumably be satisfied.0 -
They don't. Not on here. The only accusations of treachery I see are from tories visiting from a parallel time-stream in which it is a fundamental principle of the UK constitution that electors elect parties, not individual candidates.TheScreamingEagles said:Are the Kippers, who regularly lambast their opponents as scumbags and traitors, complaining about intemperate language from their opponents?
0 -
I was told on here a few years ago, as a supporter of immigration I was a traitor to this country.Ishmael_X said:
They don't. Not on here. The only accusations of treachery I see are from tories visiting from a parallel time-stream in which it is a fundamental principle of the UK constitution that electors elect parties, not individual candidates.TheScreamingEagles said:Are the Kippers, who regularly lambast their opponents as scumbags and traitors, complaining about intemperate language from their opponents?
0 -
By the way my best guess as a ready reckoner of con vote based on primaries is to treble the percentage of returns
So 75,000 letters were sent
If 7,500 were returned id predict a score of 30% ish in the election
Using a turnout of 50% and that 66% of Tory voters will have bothered returning the form
Any views?0 -
Many thanks to you, @JosiasJessop and @MaxPB - I've been just looking at the Xperia and am on EE now too.
My next question may sound like gobbledegook - I'm after a TV with wireless cum PC connectivity/an integrated DVD player/can link to FreeSat [not FreeView]. I gather I need to buy a FreeSat box.
Any suggestions for brands to check out or things to be watching for? I had a looksee last night and was swamped with acronyms and *they also bought this* liquorice gadgets that I've no idea about.Gadfly said:
My youngest son has just purchased a Moto G 5" and absolutely loves its performance. He bought it unlocked through Amazon for £145.Plato said:OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
He has now moved his number across to Asda Mobile (EE) to take advantage of their pricing and bundles. GiffGaff (O2) are another virtual mobile network that appears to be worth looking at.
The phone and networks are reviewed here... http://kenstechtips.com/0 -
So tomorrow's GDP number will be reasonable, at circa 0.7% thanks almost entirely to a strong first half of the quarter but Q4 is going to be much more ropey and Q1 2015 pretty much squeaky bum time for Osborne and the Tories.0
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I think there's a difference between internet commenters and senior politicians.TheScreamingEagles said:Are the Kippers, who regularly lambast their opponents as scumbags and traitors, complaining about intemperate language from their opponents?
0 -
I'm all in favour of such ready reckoners. We have few precedents of all-postal primaries, so the assumptions are dangerous, but any assumptions are better than none and your suggestions look sensible to me.isam said:By the way my best guess as a ready reckoner of con vote based on primaries is to treble the percentage of returns
So 75,000 letters were sent
If 7,500 were returned id predict a score of 30% ish in the election
Using a turnout of 50% and that 66% of Tory voters will have bothered returning the form
Any views?
As in the "how many pianos in Chicago?" type of question, it is in any case likely that errors in the assumptions will tend to cancel each other out.0 -
I missed your answer in between your hilarious jokes. Perhaps you could clarify what it was?TGOHF said:
You in the huff because the Kipper Calypso didn't win a MOBO last night ?Socrates said:
Do you believe Cameron will come up with a proposal to significantly limit EU migration by Christmas?TGOHF said:
Do Kippers believe DC in his pledge to leave the EPP yet ? I'd say it would be 30-70 against.
Who will be his boss? Jean-Claude Juncker or the British people?
Cameron would say he is going to have breakfast, eat scrambled egg then the Kippers would cry that he has reneged on his bacon pledge. Just a repository for whinging now.
0 -
Cheers.. Well the totnes primary return was 75% of Tory vote and gosport was 52% so ridiculously small sample but taking the average ish can't be the worst idea... We can use both to see extremes well as varying the turnout prediction... Will be interesting to see tonight's returnsantifrank said:
I'm all in favour of such ready reckoners. We have few precedents of all-postal primaries, so the assumptions are dangerous, but any assumptions are better than none and your suggestions look sensible to me.isam said:By the way my best guess as a ready reckoner of con vote based on primaries is to treble the percentage of returns
So 75,000 letters were sent
If 7,500 were returned id predict a score of 30% ish in the election
Using a turnout of 50% and that 66% of Tory voters will have bothered returning the form
Any views?
As in the "how many pianos in Chicago?" type of question, it is in any case likely that errors in the assumptions will tend to cancel each other out.
0 -
For any Scrabble fans out there - there's a super story about the new word lists in today's Times puzzle section. Apparently some numpty applied a rather simplistic computer program to create a new official listing that's changed verbs into nouns/vice versa and all the variables - e.g. rabies has been made into a plural, ‘rabieses’.0
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Except he can't make good his promises, because nothing will have been agreed, never mind ratified by 2017, all he can do is offer his negotiating position. What happens when the other EU countries having seen the referendum passed safely, decided to not give Dave anything he asked for.TOPPING said:
They are entitled to not believe him and there is nothing he or they can do to prove it one way or the other. Let's have those 47% vote Kipper or Lab or anything else and then it won't matter if Dave was ever going to make good on his promise.
0 -
Local rag on Greens in Bristol West.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Green-party-targets-Bristol-key-election/story-23374372-detail/story.html
One of the Green Councillors made The Daily Mail earlier on this year, not good publicity...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2635019/Councillor-slammed-complained-salary-Twitter-despite-earning-32-000-year.html
Not sure that their use of a 'company' to block sale of Bristol Rovers's ground will help them.
Bristol is an EU Green Capital, which might influence sentiment, but how far voters are interested in conferences on sustainable futures and the other events is an open question.
The Greens should bear in mind that Williams had over 12x the vote of their vote 26,593 to 2,090. It is a huge ask. Labour had 15,227 votes, but why switch to a bunch of no-hopers, when your party was still second? The LDs had c. 48% of the votes cast in 2010.
It begs questions about the student vote, most of those voters from 2010 will have graduated and moved on, will the students want to kick Williams or any other LD. UKIP didn't do particularly well in the local election, but could still do enough to take votes off the Tory candidate.
I would suggest that the more realistic challenge to Williams comes from Labour, not The Greens, though like UKIP they have the potential to damage the prospects of rival parties.0 -
They look two perfectly decent candidates to me - not exceptional but the kind most Tory voters would be happy with.isam said:By the way my best guess as a ready reckoner of con vote based on primaries is to treble the percentage of returns
So 75,000 letters were sent
If 7,500 were returned id predict a score of 30% ish in the election
Using a turnout of 50% and that 66% of Tory voters will have bothered returning the form
Any views?
I suppose from a marketing view you might say that there was a lack of 'product differentiation' and that neither Candidate was likely to enthuse diffident supporters, so maybe we shouldn't read too much into it if the voters of Rochester haven't returned too many of those slips.
Last nite's poll was pretty clear cut though. I agree with Antifrank that the Rochester odds on the win market look about right now. There hasn't been much corresponding movement on the related markets, so latecomers to the UKIP Value Odds Ball can still pick up a few bargains.
The poll pointed in the general direction of ten seats or more at the GE. That kind of result can still be backed in various markets at a decent return.
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TSE - that was vile, but a few years ago is a few years ago.
I am a one-man three-way marginal between tory/ukip/stay at home and not bother. I think ukip on here - not necessarily in the country at large - are markedly outperforming the tories in terms of courtesy and reasonableness. I don't include you personally in that judgment.0 -
I wouldn't be at all surprised if we got 0.8% for Q3 because growth was truly exceptional at the start of the quarter and there was a lot of upward momentum. But I do agree that there has been a loss of momentum since and Q4 is likely to be much lower.BenM said:So tomorrow's GDP number will be reasonable, at circa 0.7% thanks almost entirely to a strong first half of the quarter but Q4 is going to be much more ropey and Q1 2015 pretty much squeaky bum time for Osborne and the Tories.
It is probably too early to say what Q1 2015 will be like but if the EZ continues on its current trend it is unlikely to be good. Our brief period in the sun as the fastest growing economy is almost certainly over (although we will still do much better than the abysmal EU average).
We have seen repeatedly that GDP figures do not move voting intentions but the implications of a period of exceptional growth having almost no impact at all on our deficit should terrify all of our politicians. The next 5 years will see increased taxes and reduced public spending whoever wins the election. Austerity, not just for Christmas but for life.0 -
Oh. My. God
@guardian: William Shatner in early talks for Star Trek 3 http://t.co/sAoizJKZzE via @guardian0 -
Good morning.
Surely the fact that UKIP are just 1% ahead with the over 65s is more a positive point for them than a negative one since it obviously means they must be doing much better than usual with younger voters in order to be 13% ahead overall.0 -
The Greens have now selected 100 candidates for #GE2015, compared to 196 for the LDs. UKIP are on 260.0
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I have gone against my own rule that you rarely make money backing the Tories and backed the Blues at 4/1 this morning in Rochester. Just looked too generous. Sadly Bet 365 would only let me put £25 on.0
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If you're someone who is very unhappy with current EU arrangements,wouldn't it be better to have a referendum when there is a result of Dave's negotiations? As I understand it, the Tory offer is to say they'll negotiate to constrict freedom of movement etc., and promise a referendum on "Are you willing to stay on the basis of our negotiating package or do you want to leave anyway?" (the answer to which will clearly be "stay and negotiate", if the current polls are right) but NOT on "Do you like the result of the negotiation or do you now want to leave?"TOPPING said:
You are right of course that the likelihood is that come the referendum nothing will have been settled. But that's ok also. People will have the facts, such as they are intelligible, in front of them and will make a decision.
Again, imperfect but not untypical politics.
So people who like the package but don't like the outcome will be stuffed, won't they? Or do you anticipate two referendums?
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Sounds very reasonable as a central estimate, but what would the error bounds be?isam said:By the way my best guess as a ready reckoner of con vote based on primaries is to treble the percentage of returns
So 75,000 letters were sent
If 7,500 were returned id predict a score of 30% ish in the election
Using a turnout of 50% and that 66% of Tory voters will have bothered returning the form
Any views?
I think you quoted figures of 50-75% for previous postal primaries, so assuming the same turnout, and using those return figures as bounds, then the multiplication factor would have bounds of (2.67, 4) [NB. not uniformly distributed in multiplication factor space].0 -
The story seems to go that they are doing less well with the demographic most likely to vote, and more well with the demographics mostly likely to stay at home. However I think the 1% being about a fifth of the subsample MoE (on a good day) means attaching any meaning to it at all should be treated with a large pinch of salt!AndyJS said:Good morning.
Surely the fact that UKIP are just 1% ahead with the over 65s is more a positive point for them than a negative one since it obviously means they must be doing much better than usual with younger voters in order to be 13% ahead overall.
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Re calypso songs and accents, there is one that Ukip should have used that is sung in Plain English and whose lyrics are for more relevant to the failed policies of 60s and 70s labour and Tory politicians
The planners dream goes wrong by the jam
http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/jam/theplannersdreamgoeswrong.html
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Only on intermittently at the moment - broadband problems. I'd be cautious about drawing many conclusions from the subsample, though it's probably true that elderly voters are usually the least willing to switch. What the ComRes poll does appear to show is that the £150,000 or whatever it is that the Tories have spent on direct mail about their primary has so far had no effect whatever - worth noting for all parties who might be tempted to do this sort of thing.0
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I have stuck a tenner on the Conservatives on the basis of a market reaction after you campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, these polls are good for UKIP but I'd wait for polls naming the Tory candidate and after I have campaigned in the constituency.
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Your questions seem exactly the same. What is the difference between the "package" and the "outcome" of the negotiations?NickPalmer said:
If you're someone who is very unhappy with current EU arrangements,wouldn't it be better to have a referendum when there is a result of Dave's negotiations? As I understand it, the Tory offer is to say they'll negotiate to constrict freedom of movement etc., and promise a referendum on "Are you willing to stay on the basis of our negotiating package or do you want to leave anyway?" (the answer to which will clearly be "stay and negotiate", if the current polls are right) but NOT on "Do you like the result of the negotiation or do you now want to leave?"TOPPING said:
You are right of course that the likelihood is that come the referendum nothing will have been settled. But that's ok also. People will have the facts, such as they are intelligible, in front of them and will make a decision.
Again, imperfect but not untypical politics.
So people who like the package but don't like the outcome will be stuffed, won't they? Or do you anticipate two referendums?
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Mr. Eagles, maybe they'll visit a den of iniquity.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5RVeQFK0LM0 -
On the violence point, is it that leftism makes people feel entitled to be violent? I think not. People who like being violent are attracted to pretexts for being so.
Re referendum strategy, I'm generally net pro-EU but if Cameron asks us to vote for a negotiating position I'll vote Out.
He should campaign for an Out vote then go to Brussels and say I want this or we're out. If it's clear he has no mandate to leave if unsatisfied, then his position is precisely that of an AST tenant who doesn't like the landlord's rent demand. If you have no alternative course open, i.e. nowhere to move to, you hence have no negotiating position at all.0 -
Makes me feel pretty good about getting 5.9 this morning on Betfair :-)___Bobajob___ said:I have gone against my own rule that you rarely make money backing the Tories and backed the Blues at 4/1 this morning in Rochester. Just looked too generous. Sadly Bet 365 would only let me put £25 on.
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I know a few of you here are from down south - a list of restaurants for you all to avoid
http://www.crawleynews.co.uk/REVEALED-Sussex-s-worst-restaurants-pubs-cafes/story-23202370-detail/story.html0 -
DC seems intent on a clash with Juncker over the free movement of people. Or does he?
If he knows that cosmetic changes are guaranteed, it make sense. Otherwise, the only losers are Cameron and Europhiles. And he's given a Christmas deadline.
Is it a cunning plan or a panic move to see him past Rochester?0 -
RIP Alvin Stardust.
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Peter
I actually think the Tories may have missed a trick because their identikit candidates are so bland. That's what making me think my wager this morning is likely to be a loser (but may be tradable).
Labour actually have the best candidate but they aren't really fighting the seat, for wise tactical reasons.Peter_the_Punter said:
They look two perfectly decent candidates to me - not exceptional but the kind most Tory voters would be happy with.isam said:By the way my best guess as a ready reckoner of con vote based on primaries is to treble the percentage of returns
So 75,000 letters were sent
If 7,500 were returned id predict a score of 30% ish in the election
Using a turnout of 50% and that 66% of Tory voters will have bothered returning the form
Any views?
I suppose from a marketing view you might say that there was a lack of 'product differentiation' and that neither Candidate was likely to enthuse diffident supporters, so maybe we shouldn't read too much into it if the voters of Rochester haven't returned too many of those slips.
Last nite's poll was pretty clear cut though. I agree with Antifrank that the Rochester odds on the win market look about right now. There hasn't been much corresponding movement on the related markets, so latecomers to the UKIP Value Odds Ball can still pick up a few bargains.
The poll pointed in the general direction of ten seats or more at the GE. That kind of result can still be backed in various markets at a decent return.0 -
And in dinosaur news...I'm sure this guy writes regularly for the Daily Mash!
Prof John Hutchinson, a palaeontologist from the UK's Royal Veterinary College, said: "Many dinosaur fans have seen pictures of the 8ft-long arms and hands, and they really are amazing and wonderful. People were really wondering what the rest of this animal looked like.
"Now we know, and it's just so freaking weird - we never would have expected this animal to look so bizarre.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-297294120