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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Generally the oldies are the key group for UKIP yet in the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Generally the oldies are the key group for UKIP yet in the ComRes Rochester poll they give Reckless a lead of just 1%
Let there be no doubt – the UKIP donor funded ComRes Rochester poll was terrible news for the Tories coming as it has just before the party announces the result of its all-postal primary on who should be the candidate.
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If UKIPs lead among oldies is only 1% but its overall lead is 13%, then this is further proof, if indeed further proof is needed, that UKIPs appeal has considerably widened from its traditional core, which is hardly bad news for them.
Their support does indeed have a large number of previous non voters (as rob ford noted in his tweets repeated above), however that is hardly surprising as they represent those disenfranchised by the the Conlabirals, particularly on social issues. They will turn out alright - with relish.
The backwoodsmen who last appeared in 1992 and did for Kinnock are about to speak again and the establishment is horrified.
I'm not sure this poll is worth that much in its current format given reliance on previous non-voters. As Rob says, the chances of them turning out in a late November by election are very slim.
We might see a low overall turnout too.
Force mothers out to work and their children into day orphanages. You utter utter ****** Gideon.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/11181535/George-Osborne-gets-stay-at-home-mothers-back-to-work.html
I imagine you fit the UKIP profile perfectly: boorish male lout.
EdM gets 53 % of Labour VI and 38% of 2010
I had thought Dan Hodges had been getting more sensible of late, but this just sounds like wishful thinking on his part
They should only vote as their husbands say (in fact, giving them the vote in the first place was a bad idea - damn you, George Cave!) Women should not be taught science at schools, and should just do home economics and flower arranging. Abortion should be banned, as without many kids they won't have enough to do, and may stray. Divorce law should go back to the Victorian system. (collapses in a faint from excessive manliness)
To answer your post: the more women in work, the better. If a family decide one or other parent stays at home to look after children, fair enough: that is their decision. But the barriers that stop women (and it is mainly women) from going back to work when they want to should be addressed.
Likewise, if fathers want to stay at home and look after the children instead of their mothers, they should be free to do so.
All that will result from higher subsidies to parents for childcare is childcare providers upping their prices, just as landlords tailor their rent to housing benefit levels. And they call themselves conservative.
Meanwhile mothers of under 5 s go exhausted to work, wracked with anguish at leaving their little ones with strangers on minimum wage all day. Nice society.
If you vote for Dave you might get your referendum, but in 2017 nothing will have been agreed with any other government, nothing will have been ratified, no treaties will have been changed. What you will have will be Dave's proposition, what he hopes to get, which will be far more than he will actually get, and he may actually get nothing of any significance. You will be voting on a wish and a promise, which will be used to try and close down any future vote on the subject for the next decade.
If you vote for Ed you won't get your referendum, but the option will be open for a later government to address the issue as the "people won't have spoken"
If you vote for Nigel, you will still either get no referendum, or a referendum on a wish and a prayer, since Nigel won't lead a government. But there is a chance that someone will need Nigel's votes and he will get some leverage, and you know that someone will be in parliament asking the sort of questions you want asked and trying to stop inconvenient issues being swept under the carpet.
If you dont think that EU membership is the real issue, you could substitute Immigration into the above, Ed won't do anything, Dave will talk a good game but not actually do anything, Nigel might become enough of a thorn in the establishments side to make something happen, or at least draw attention to things not happening.
UKIP is a coalition of the angry and the disenfranchised, they know Ed won't do anything, they think Dave will talk a good line and then not do anything either, the hope Nigel will be able to do something, or failing that slow down the others failure to do something, or failing that just give the establishment a damn good kicking for failing to provide them with a real option which makes them feel enfranchised.
Your vision of society appears rather restrictive to women. Nice society ...
The only interesting comment you have made today is the one about being 'conservative.' Although not an original idea, the word conservative is indeed a misnomer for the kind of free market entrepreneurial beliefs which drive much of the party.
(That's not to pre-empt the result of a referendum. )
UKIPs enemies resort to thuggery in Brighton:
Teddy Clark @TeddyUKIPClark 3m3 minutes ago
Ukip candidate attacked at party stall http://ln.is/www.theargus.co.uk/n/R8yrw …
Seems to me that the polls and the result at Clacton should provide evidence one way or another on this question.
Electoral Commission not fit for purpose and should be replaced.
Clearly UKIP are in the lead but they are not out of sight.. today's news and vote number will be more significant.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/kxq4bnponi/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Leaders-Perceptions-211014.pdf
Muslim convert who shot Canadian soldier dead had passport seized & is the son of Canada's immigration chief! http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2804099/Pictured-Recent-Muslim-convert-Michael-Zehaf-Bibeau-shot-dead-solider-opened-fire-Canadian-Parliament.html …
and now off for a while.
Let me assure you that UKIP are doing an excellent job of stirring hate without any help from outside.
And the last time I was in Brighton it didn't strike me as fertile ground for Conservative party activism. Just a thought.
I'm not convinced Farage wants an intellectually honest discussion. I think Carswell probably does.
Lots [relatively] of anarchists in Brighton. They drove the SWP off the University campus following the SWPs rape scandals.
Thought that the parallel in the arguments used was interesting.
Today's Labour 2010 VI retention is at 75%, a low for 2014 and down from a January average of 85.5%.
Immigration is the number one concern for me too. Allowing freedom of movement for me, and for people I choose to hire is by far the single most important factor in me choosing my vote.
Oh wait, you have a different immigration concern.
Rochester won't see that sort of turnout.
The overall level of reported certainty to vote is far too high (as it always is in these things). I'd be surprised if the final turnout reaches the proportion saying they're 10/10 sure to turn out, never mind once appropriately weighted numbers are added in for those further down the certainties. If UKIP's support comes from DNV's and sub-10/10's then while their vote has broad support, there does have to be a question as to whether it will make it to the polls in the numbers suggested.
Also worth noting that there's a bigger LD-Con than LD-Lab swing reported (though both trail LD-UKIP).
Interesting overnight news on poll. I'm taking this with a big pinch of salt if so many non-voters are needed for UKIP to win, especially now we might see anti-UKIP tactical voting.
I'm keeping my money on Tories for time being.
Though you can get 27/1 on Labour on Betfair this morning.
F1: Caterham teeters on the brink and owners old and new argue, and the new owners threaten to leave:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula-one/29733418
I think Labour is squeezed from 20%.
Full access to benefits requires five years of NI contributions. And I'm including Brits in this.
Are absolutely all views that immigration is less than 100% excellent subject to that blanket dismissal? There's a woman on r4 just now whose 12 year old daughter was abducted by men of subcontinental origin. Do you dismiss her views out of hand, and is she merely deluded, or actually evil, to hold them?
Morality is completely impractical. I have no difficulty with people advocating borders and/or immigration control so long as they acknowledge that by doing so they have surrendered any claim to be regarded as moral agents. It is, after all, my own position.
Middle class metropolitans and ethnic minorities?
If the Scots aren't any longer and the lesser skilled aren't any longer, then what remains?
The grumpy North?
Also I think the moves on Betfair yesterday were being done by people with access to the embargoed polls. The law on this should be changed to http://www.out-law.com/page-830 the same as share dealing Price sensitive data.
2001 is being theatrically re-released on November 28th. Potentially a glimpse back thirteen years to what could have been:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfF0vxKZRhc
Likewise, it was not a good day for democracy when Farage was surrounded by a mob, shouted down and forced to flee Scotland.
I can honestly say that I've never cleaned behind any fridge.
There is one flaw in your argument which is otherwise acute.
If you have a settled view that you want to leave the EU, then vote to get your referendum from Dave and see how many people agree with you.
That is the democratic process.
I'll change my name.
Is this a Director's Cut or some kind of digital remaster?
For current and future reference that is my position.
Appearance on the Dutch-TV program "Jensen!", a couple of months before being assassinated.
You can watch the YouTube if you want.
http://www.isteve.com/2002_Did_Pim_Fortuyn_Have_It_Coming.htm
Given the long history of violence perpetrated by the extreme left this demonisation needs to stop.
The more likely prospect is that the electorate is asked to vote IN/OUT on the basis of Dave's proposed negotiating position, which will be insanely optimistic judging by his current and previous promises that had no hope of being delivered. After the referendum two things will happen. Firstly, most if not all of his requirements will get rejected, after which he will affect his usual hangdog expression and say "Sorry chaps, I tried, but those nasty Europeans wouldn't play along, happily you have already agreed to stay in Europe". Secondly the other countries will have absolutely no incentive to accede to the UK requirements, as the referendum will have already happened and presumably been passed, and hence there is no risk. The British public are asked to vote IN/OUT on the basis of a pig in a poke.
We saw the attacks on UKIP's meetings during the Euro Elections.
They have lost the argument and violence is all they have left.
BTW, this is not a new occurrence, but the Tory Government stands by and does nothing. They really are the nasty party.
Chipping dried catfood off the floor, one of the pleasures of pet ownership... They're messy eaters.
But I do agree that both the extreme left and the extreme right across the world have long histories of violent behaviour. However, the idea that either side needs to be incited by anyone is pretty laughable. They behave violently because they are thugs that have little interest in the individual.
It is a politician's promise so should be treated as they all are (which is usually according to one's own preference for the party the politician belongs to).
You are right of course that the likelihood is that come the referendum nothing will have been settled. But that's ok also. People will have the facts, such as they are intelligible, in front of them and will make a decision.
Again, imperfect but not untypical politics.