Hmm. With Caterham's woes I was tempted by an early bet in their drivers not to be classified in the US (race weekend begins in about 8 days), but the market doesn't exist on Betfair and Ladbrokes haven't put it up yet.
OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
The Nokia one has an extraordinary camera - a million megapixels, or near it.
OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
This is a good poll for UKIP. They're not home and dry, but odds of 1/4 or 1/5 on them are now about right. The key is that this is the second poll by a different pollster showing them with a decent lead.
We all remember when the Dutch lefty establishment incited the murder of Pim Fortuyn. The sort of rhetoric directed at Ukip is dispicable.
And I remember the attacks directed at Catholics before the Papal Visit in 2010.
What was noticeable was the number of misspellings on the anti-Catholic banners at events. You will always get feeble-minded individuals wishing to feel part of a group turning on a vilified minority.
We all remember when the Dutch lefty establishment incited the murder of Pim Fortuyn. The sort of rhetoric directed at Ukip is dispicable.
Can you provide examples of the Dutch lefty establishment inciting the murder of Pim Fortuyn, or are you just making that up because you do not like people who are left-wing?
If you could see what I get in my mailbox every now and then, regarding threats, and so on, well that doesn't exactly cheer you up, and the Dutch government – and I think it's a 'bloody shame' – helps create a climate demonizing me personally. And if something were to happen to me – and I'm glad that you're giving me the chance (to say this) – if something were to happen to me, then they will be partly responsible, and they can't just walk away saying "I'm not the one who committed the attack." They helped to create this climate (this atmosphere), and it needs to stop. Appearance on the Dutch-TV program "Jensen!", a couple of months before being assassinated.
Given the long history of violence perpetrated by the extreme left this demonisation needs to stop.
So no evidence at all then.
But I do agree that both the extreme left and the extreme right across the world have long histories of violent behaviour. However, the idea that either side needs to be incited by anyone is pretty laughable. They behave violently because they are thugs that have little interest in the individual.
OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
Depends how much you want to spend.
The Moto G is generally considered to be excellent value at ~£130, but more expensive smartphones will normally have better cameras if you're willing to spend £400 or more.
We all remember when the Dutch lefty establishment incited the murder of Pim Fortuyn. The sort of rhetoric directed at Ukip is dispicable.
Can you provide examples of the Dutch lefty establishment inciting the murder of Pim Fortuyn, or are you just making that up because you do not like people who are left-wing?
If you could see what I get in my mailbox every now and then, regarding threats, and so on, well that doesn't exactly cheer you up, and the Dutch government – and I think it's a 'bloody shame' – helps create a climate demonizing me personally. And if something were to happen to me – and I'm glad that you're giving me the chance (to say this) – if something were to happen to me, then they will be partly responsible, and they can't just walk away saying "I'm not the one who committed the attack." They helped to create this climate (this atmosphere), and it needs to stop. Appearance on the Dutch-TV program "Jensen!", a couple of months before being assassinated.
Given the long history of violence perpetrated by the extreme left this demonisation needs to stop.
So no evidence at all then.
But I do agree that both the extreme left and the extreme right across the world have long histories of violent behaviour. However, the idea that either side needs to be incited by anyone is pretty laughable. They behave violently because they are thugs that have little interest in the individual.
Evidence clearly makes no difference to you.
No, you just cannot provide any evidence. If you could I would consider it.
I get it: you do not like left wing people. But to blame them for murders is like blaming right wing people for inciting what Breivik did in Norway or for the Oklahoma bombing. I guess that if you accept that the right wing establishment in Norway and the US, respectively, incited those attacks you will at least be consistent. Though even then I would have to disagree with you.
We saw the attacks on UKIP's meetings during the Euro Elections.
They have lost the argument and violence is all they have left.
BTW, this is not a new occurrence, but the Tory Government stands by and does nothing. They really are the nasty party.
Members of all political parties get attacked by nutters (I did when I was a Conservative)). Brighton is both very left-wing, and, as a seaside town, has had many people with mental health issues sent there by other authorities. I wouldn't read too much into this incident.
We all remember when the Dutch lefty establishment incited the murder of Pim Fortuyn. The sort of rhetoric directed at Ukip is dispicable.
Can you provide examples of the Dutch lefty establishment inciting the murder of Pim Fortuyn, or are you just making that up because you do not like people who are left-wing?
If you could see what I get in my mailbox every now and then, regarding threats, and so on, well that doesn't exactly cheer you up, and the Dutch government – and I think it's a 'bloody shame' – helps create a climate demonizing me personally. And if something were to happen to me – and I'm glad that you're giving me the chance (to say this) – if something were to happen to me, then they will be partly responsible, and they can't just walk away saying "I'm not the one who committed the attack." They helped to create this climate (this atmosphere), and it needs to stop. Appearance on the Dutch-TV program "Jensen!", a couple of months before being assassinated.
Given the long history of violence perpetrated by the extreme left this demonisation needs to stop.
So no evidence at all then.
But I do agree that both the extreme left and the extreme right across the world have long histories of violent behaviour. However, the idea that either side needs to be incited by anyone is pretty laughable. They behave violently because they are thugs that have little interest in the individual.
Evidence clearly makes no difference to you.
No, you just cannot provide any evidence. If you could I would consider it.
I get it: you do not like left wing people. But to blame them for murders is like blaming right wing people for inciting what Breivik did in Norway or for the Oklahoma bombing. I guess that if you accept that the right wing establishment in Norway and the US, respectively, incited those attacks you will at least be consistent. Though even then I would have to disagree with you.
I don't believe either were politicians and were subject to demonisation by the media and political establishment.
And @TOPPING Many thanks - that's great. What is a *mini* phone?
The fashion was for small phones, I've been using an ancient Nokia 6300 after dropping my other one in the sink - today's ones seem enormous in comparison. Are either type vulnerable to arse-dialling? My Blackberry Storm was useless and rang everyone in my phonebook.
OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
We saw the attacks on UKIP's meetings during the Euro Elections.
They have lost the argument and violence is all they have left.
BTW, this is not a new occurrence, but the Tory Government stands by and does nothing. They really are the nasty party.
Members of all political parties get attacked by nutters (I did when I was a Conservative)). Brighton is both very left-wing, and, as a seaside town, has had many people with mental health issues sent there by other authorities. I wouldn't read too much into this incident.
Good post. But with 2 out 3 Brighton MPs Tories, I think it is an oversimplification to say that Brighton is very left wing. Its much more mixed.
OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
Depends how much you want to spend.
The Moto G is generally considered to be excellent value at ~£130, but more expensive smartphones will normally have better cameras if you're willing to spend £400 or more.
We saw the attacks on UKIP's meetings during the Euro Elections.
They have lost the argument and violence is all they have left.
BTW, this is not a new occurrence, but the Tory Government stands by and does nothing. They really are the nasty party.
Members of all political parties get attacked by nutters (I did when I was a Conservative)). Brighton is both very left-wing, and, as a seaside town, has had many people with mental health issues sent there by other authorities. I wouldn't read too much into this incident.
But it's not an isolated incident, is it?
Farage in Edinburgh, UKIP meetings during the Euros.
Is there a more inappropriately named organisation than Hope Not Hate?
As Sean_F said, there are unfortunately a few nutters everywhere. There's nothing in the report to suggest that this is anything other than an isolated incident. It's not as though some Green version of the Ku Klux Klan is marching through Brighton with flaming crosses, seeking out uppity kippers to lynch. Or even any particular evidence that this was a member or supporter of any one particular party.
This is a good poll for UKIP. They're not home and dry, but odds of 1/4 or 1/5 on them are now about right. The key is that this is the second poll by a different pollster showing them with a decent lead.
The key is a bloody poll with a named Tory candidate!
The Labour core is clearly people you do not like.
Dodging the existential question, eh?
Who, or what, are the Labour Party for?
If the working class are deserting, who are they for?
Can you simultaneously be for the average man and be pro-immigration when it suppresses the average man's wages and damages access to public infrastructure?
Can you be tough on immigration and yet dependent on ethnic votes in many areas?
Can you be a statist party when everyone demands devolution?
Can you be the party of big spending when the cupboard is bare?
Labour have no real idea of who they are for. The 1% in now anyone on £42,000.
OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
Depends how much you want to spend.
The Moto G is generally considered to be excellent value at ~£130, but more expensive smartphones will normally have better cameras if you're willing to spend £400 or more.
I love my moto G. Camera not great compared to iphones and such but has flash, video etc.
As Sean_F said, there are unfortunately a few nutters everywhere. There's nothing in the report to suggest that this is anything other than an isolated incident. It's not as though some Green version of the Ku Klux Klan is marching through Brighton with flaming crosses, seeking out uppity kippers to lynch. Or even any particular evidence that this was a member or supporter of any one particular party.
UKIP seriously need to avoid the paranoid victim mentality that sees every incident as a coordinated attack upon them as a party. Most of the time it is simply an act of random idiocy which happens to all parties.
@MikeK awful to hear. I'm sure the supporters of other parties will join me in condemning the attack. It's very sad that political leaders like David Cameron and Chukka Umunna have created an atmosphere of hate against UKIP that encourages such attacks to happen.
What an extraordinary and disgraceful comment. Whatever is inside your head really ought to stay there.
Oh, come on. When the media and mainstream politicians constantly undergo a smear campaign about UKIP's views being racist, neo-fascist and illegitimate, it means that their supporters out there feel it is acceptable to take extreme measures to silence them. The fact no-one else here has condemned the attack says it all. Audreyanne even responded that they brought hate on themselves.
I have no problem condemning such attacks but to pretend that named politicians who have criticised UKIP are responsible is simply unjustified. For one thing it detaches from the perpetrators responsibility for their actions. I defend the right of UKIP to free speech when I condemn their message. I don't blame Farage for attacks on Muslims.
You are stretching my words to say something I did not mean. But certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society.
OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
Xperia Z3 Compact is the best "small" phone on the market currently. It can be had for around £325 online. Best in class camera and a 4 day battery.
We saw the attacks on UKIP's meetings during the Euro Elections.
They have lost the argument and violence is all they have left.
BTW, this is not a new occurrence, but the Tory Government stands by and does nothing. They really are the nasty party.
Members of all political parties get attacked by nutters (I did when I was a Conservative)). Brighton is both very left-wing, and, as a seaside town, has had many people with mental health issues sent there by other authorities. I wouldn't read too much into this incident.
But it's not an isolated incident, is it?
Farage in Edinburgh, UKIP meetings during the Euros.
Is there a more inappropriately named organisation than Hope Not Hate?
But, I'm sure you could find as many incidents of Conservative, Labour, and Lib Dem activists being assaulted.
UKIP activists will be targeted by extreme left fanatics, but so will Conservatives and Lib Dems. Labour activists will be targeted by the extreme right. All will be targeted by weirdos.
@MikeK awful to hear. I'm sure the supporters of other parties will join me in condemning the attack. It's very sad that political leaders like David Cameron and Chukka Umunna have created an atmosphere of hate against UKIP that encourages such attacks to happen.
What an extraordinary and disgraceful comment. Whatever is inside your head really ought to stay there.
Oh, come on. When the media and mainstream politicians constantly undergo a smear campaign about UKIP's views being racist, neo-fascist and illegitimate, it means that their supporters out there feel it is acceptable to take extreme measures to silence them. The fact no-one else here has condemned the attack says it all. Audreyanne even responded that they brought hate on themselves.
I have no problem condemning such attacks but to pretend that named politicians who have criticised UKIP are responsible is simply unjustified. For one thing it detaches from the perpetrators responsibility for their actions. I defend the right of UKIP to free speech when I condemn their message. I don't blame Farage for attacks on Muslims.
You are stretching my words to say something I did not mean. But certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society.
That'll be why UKIP's been invited to participate in the 2015 GE debates while the Greens and SNP haven't. Or not.
There is a great song by nirvana called "school" which is based on Kurt cobains disappointment at moving to Olympia which he thought would be full of bohemian artist types with a free and non judgemental approach to society only to find it was full of bohemian artist types with the same small town mindset and societal hierachy clique that he found in his hometown Aberdeen, Washington
OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
Most smartphone cameras are fairly decent for the point-and-shooter; if photography is important to you, you might be best going for one of the previous generation (such as the S4 or 5 mentioned below), and spending the £100-200 you have saved on an evening photography course.
We saw the attacks on UKIP's meetings during the Euro Elections.
They have lost the argument and violence is all they have left.
BTW, this is not a new occurrence, but the Tory Government stands by and does nothing. They really are the nasty party.
Members of all political parties get attacked by nutters (I did when I was a Conservative)). Brighton is both very left-wing, and, as a seaside town, has had many people with mental health issues sent there by other authorities. I wouldn't read too much into this incident.
But it's not an isolated incident, is it?
Farage in Edinburgh, UKIP meetings during the Euros.
Is there a more inappropriately named organisation than Hope Not Hate?
But, I'm sure you could find as many incidents of Conservative, Labour, and Lib Dem activists being assaulted.
UKIP activists will be targeted by extreme left fanatics, but so will Conservatives and Lib Dems. Labour activists will be targeted by the extreme right. All will be targeted by weirdos.
I doubt as many incidents, certainly of Labour activists being attacked.
@MikeK awful to hear. I'm sure the supporters of other parties will join me in condemning the attack. It's very sad that political leaders like David Cameron and Chukka Umunna have created an atmosphere of hate against UKIP that encourages such attacks to happen.
What an extraordinary and disgraceful comment. Whatever is inside your head really ought to stay there.
Oh, come on. When the media and mainstream politicians constantly undergo a smear campaign about UKIP's views being racist, neo-fascist and illegitimate, it means that their supporters out there feel it is acceptable to take extreme measures to silence them. The fact no-one else here has condemned the attack says it all. Audreyanne even responded that they brought hate on themselves.
I have no problem condemning such attacks but to pretend that named politicians who have criticised UKIP are responsible is simply unjustified. For one thing it detaches from the perpetrators responsibility for their actions. I defend the right of UKIP to free speech when I condemn their message. I don't blame Farage for attacks on Muslims.
You are stretching my words to say something I did not mean. But certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society.
You directly blamed Cameron and Umunna for creating an atmosphere of hate that encourages such attacks to happen. WTF did you mean?
@MikeK awful to hear. I'm sure the supporters of other parties will join me in condemning the attack. It's very sad that political leaders like David Cameron and Chukka Umunna have created an atmosphere of hate against UKIP that encourages such attacks to happen.
What an extraordinary and disgraceful comment. Whatever is inside your head really ought to stay there.
Oh, come on. When the media and mainstream politicians constantly undergo a smear campaign about UKIP's views being racist, neo-fascist and illegitimate, it means that their supporters out there feel it is acceptable to take extreme measures to silence them. The fact no-one else here has condemned the attack says it all. Audreyanne even responded that they brought hate on themselves.
I have no problem condemning such attacks but to pretend that named politicians who have criticised UKIP are responsible is simply unjustified. For one thing it detaches from the perpetrators responsibility for their actions. I defend the right of UKIP to free speech when I condemn their message. I don't blame Farage for attacks on Muslims.
You are stretching my words to say something I did not mean. But certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society.
That'll be why UKIP's been invited to participate in the 2015 GE debates while the Greens and SNP haven't. Or not.
Grow up and grow some.
You're joking, right? It was the TV studios that invited them. David Cameron is actively trying to get them excluded.
You've had far too easy a ride from a pliant media and are now experiencing the kind of backlash what activists from all Parties have experienced for decades.
Honestly the shrill whingeing from UKIP sources on twitter is tedious. Act like adults and grow a pair.
We saw the attacks on UKIP's meetings during the Euro Elections.
They have lost the argument and violence is all they have left.
BTW, this is not a new occurrence, but the Tory Government stands by and does nothing. They really are the nasty party.
Members of all political parties get attacked by nutters (I did when I was a Conservative)). Brighton is both very left-wing, and, as a seaside town, has had many people with mental health issues sent there by other authorities. I wouldn't read too much into this incident.
But it's not an isolated incident, is it?
Farage in Edinburgh, UKIP meetings during the Euros.
Is there a more inappropriately named organisation than Hope Not Hate?
But, I'm sure you could find as many incidents of Conservative, Labour, and Lib Dem activists being assaulted.
UKIP activists will be targeted by extreme left fanatics, but so will Conservatives and Lib Dems. Labour activists will be targeted by the extreme right. All will be targeted by weirdos.
I doubt as many incidents, certainly of Labour activists being attacked.
Labour pols regularly get egged. Activists of all parties take abuse.
Mr. F, I can't help but feel UKIP would gain more mainstream acceptance if it adopted the Morris Dancer approach towards justice, and moving the emphasis away from community service and towards flinging miscreants from a trebuchet into the North Sea.
@MikeK awful to hear. I'm sure the supporters of other parties will join me in condemning the attack. It's very sad that political leaders like David Cameron and Chukka Umunna have created an atmosphere of hate against UKIP that encourages such attacks to happen.
What an extraordinary and disgraceful comment. Whatever is inside your head really ought to stay there.
Oh, come on. When the media and mainstream politicians constantly undergo a smear campaign about UKIP's views being racist, neo-fascist and illegitimate, it means that their supporters out there feel it is acceptable to take extreme measures to silence them. The fact no-one else here has condemned the attack says it all. Audreyanne even responded that they brought hate on themselves.
I have no problem condemning such attacks but to pretend that named politicians who have criticised UKIP are responsible is simply unjustified. For one thing it detaches from the perpetrators responsibility for their actions. I defend the right of UKIP to free speech when I condemn their message. I don't blame Farage for attacks on Muslims.
You are stretching my words to say something I did not mean. But certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society.
That'll be why UKIP's been invited to participate in the 2015 GE debates while the Greens and SNP haven't. Or not.
Grow up and grow some.
You're joking, right? It was the TV studios that invited them. David Cameron is actively trying to get them excluded.
He's talking about whether this "atmopshere" you're blaming actually exists
It'll be more than that because it's not internally weighted.
I was going off the 268 "weighted base" but yes that is my point
And yet my analysis of a series of Scottish subsamples was dismissed as a nonsense I think...
The 268 is the weighted value of the 65+ subsection within the overall poll, but that subsection won't be internally weighted for e.g. male/female, 2010 VI, social class etc.
You've had far too easy a ride from a pliant media and are now experiencing the kind of backlash what activists from all Parties have experienced for decades.
Honestly the shrill whingeing from UKIP sources on twitter is tedious. Act like adults and grow a pair.
Mr. F, I can't help but feel UKIP would gain more mainstream acceptance if it adopted the Morris Dancer approach towards justice, and moving the emphasis away from community service and towards flinging miscreants from a trebuchet into the North Sea.
Objection; there’s too much rubbish in the North Sea already! And you’d need a powered trebuchet to get them past the wind farms!
The Guardian more in touch with the effect of mass immigration than most on here
Amazing that a party set up by workers inflicted this on them. Like a trade union gone bad
' This year I visited Wisbech – where a third of the 30,000 population is now estimated to be from overseas – and what was happening there spoke loud truths about why free movement has become so politicised. For all that recently arrived families have started to settle, and their children are acquiring new, hybrid identities, there are still glaring problems. Young men from eastern Europe often live four or five to a room, and work impossibly long hours; with echoes of Europe’s macroeconomic asymmetries, the local labour market is divided between insufficient jobs that be can be done by people with families and mortgages, and a surfeit of opportunities for those who will work whenever they are required for a relative pittance.
This creates endless tension. There have also been inevitable problems surrounding how far schools and doctors’ surgeries have been stretched. Is anyone surprised? Moreover, even if such places represent socioeconomic extremes, similar problems surface whenever large-scale migration fuses with the more precarious parts of the economy. In modern Britain, this obviously happens often, and the under-reported consequences of austerity have hardly helped.
What passes for the modern left tends to be far too blase about all this. Perhaps those who reduce people’s worries and fears to mere bigotry should go back to first principles, and consider whether, in such laissez-faire conditions, free movement has been of most benefit to capital or labour. They might also think about the dread spectacle of people from upscale London postcodes passing judgment on people who experience large-scale migration as something real.'
You've had far too easy a ride from a pliant media and are now experiencing the kind of backlash what activists from all Parties have experienced for decades.
Honestly the shrill whingeing from UKIP sources on twitter is tedious. Act like adults and grow a pair.
Yes rather like the cybernats they seem to get everywhere and pronounce with the certainty pnly starry eyed messianic fervour confers.
OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
My youngest son has just purchased a Moto G 5" and absolutely loves its performance. He bought it unlocked through Amazon for £145.
He has now moved his number across to Asda Mobile (EE) to take advantage of their pricing and bundles. GiffGaff (O2) are another virtual mobile network that appears to be worth looking at.
Lets imagine for a second that for whatever reason you are a voter with the settled view that you dont want your country to be in the EU. Who do you realistically vote for ?
If you vote for Dave you might get your referendum, but in 2017 nothing will have been agreed with any other government, nothing will have been ratified, no treaties will have been changed. What you will have will be Dave's proposition, what he hopes to get, which will be far more than he will actually get, and he may actually get nothing of any significance. You will be voting on a wish and a promise, which will be used to try and close down any future vote on the subject for the next decade.
If you vote for Ed you won't get your referendum, but the option will be open for a later government to address the issue as the "people won't have spoken"
If you vote for Nigel, you will still either get no referendum, or a referendum on a wish and a prayer, since Nigel won't lead a government. But there is a chance that someone will need Nigel's votes and he will get some leverage, and you know that someone will be in parliament asking the sort of questions you want asked and trying to stop inconvenient issues being swept under the carpet.
If you dont think that EU membership is the real issue, you could substitute Immigration into the above, Ed won't do anything, Dave will talk a good game but not actually do anything, Nigel might become enough of a thorn in the establishments side to make something happen, or at least draw attention to things not happening.
UKIP is a coalition of the angry and the disenfranchised, they know Ed won't do anything, they think Dave will talk a good line and then not do anything either, the hope Nigel will be able to do something, or failing that slow down the others failure to do something, or failing that just give the establishment a damn good kicking for failing to provide them with a real option which makes them feel enfranchised.
Democracy, eh.
There is one flaw in your argument which is otherwise acute.
If you have a settled view that you want to leave the EU, then vote to get your referendum from Dave and see how many people agree with you.
That is the democratic process.
Q9 on this poll was:
"I believe David Cameron's promise to hold a referendum on EU membership if the Conservatives win power after next May's General Election" agree/disagree.
Agree: 47%, Disagree 47%.
This seems to break down on class lines. ABC1 mostly agree, C2DE mostly disagree.
Lets imagine for a second that for whatever reason you are a voter with the settled view that you dont want your country to be in the EU. Who do you realistically vote for ?
If you vote for Dave you might get your referendum, but in 2017 nothing will have been agreed with any other government, nothing will have been ratified, no treaties will have been changed. What you will have will be Dave's proposition, what he hopes to get, which will be far more than he will actually get, and he may actually get nothing of any significance. You will be voting on a wish and a promise, which will be used to try and close down any future vote on the subject for the next decade.
If you vote for Ed you won't get your referendum, but the option will be open for a later government to address the issue as the "people won't have spoken"
If you vote for Nigel, you will still either get no referendum, or a referendum on a wish and a prayer, since Nigel won't lead a government. But there is a chance that someone will need Nigel's votes and he will get some leverage, and you know that someone will be in parliament asking the sort of questions you want asked and trying to stop inconvenient issues being swept under the carpet.
If you dont think that EU membership is the real issue, you could substitute Immigration into the above, Ed won't do anything, Dave will talk a good game but not actually do anything, Nigel might become enough of a thorn in the establishments side to make something happen, or at least draw attention to things not happening.
UKIP is a coalition of the angry and the disenfranchised, they know Ed won't do anything, they think Dave will talk a good line and then not do anything either, the hope Nigel will be able to do something, or failing that slow down the others failure to do something, or failing that just give the establishment a damn good kicking for failing to provide them with a real option which makes them feel enfranchised.
Democracy, eh.
There is one flaw in your argument which is otherwise acute.
If you have a settled view that you want to leave the EU, then vote to get your referendum from Dave and see how many people agree with you.
That is the democratic process.
Q9 on this poll was:
"I believe David Cameron's promise to hold a referendum on EU membership if the Conservatives win power after next May's General Election" agree/disagree.
Agree: 47%, Disagree 47%.
This seems to break down on class lines. ABC1 mostly agree, C2DE mostly disagree.
@MikeK awful to hear. I'm sure the supporters of other parties will join me in condemning the attack. It's very sad that political leaders like David Cameron and Chukka Umunna have created an atmosphere of hate against UKIP that encourages such attacks to happen.
What an extraordinary and disgraceful comment. Whatever is inside your head really ought to stay there.
Oh, come on. When the media and mainstream politicians constantly undergo a smear campaign about UKIP's views being racist, neo-fascist and illegitimate, it means that their supporters out there feel it is acceptable to take extreme measures to silence them. The fact no-one else here has condemned the attack says it all. Audreyanne even responded that they brought hate on themselves.
I have no problem condemning such attacks but to pretend that named politicians who have criticised UKIP are responsible is simply unjustified. For one thing it detaches from the perpetrators responsibility for their actions. I defend the right of UKIP to free speech when I condemn their message. I don't blame Farage for attacks on Muslims.
You are stretching my words to say something I did not mean. But certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society.
That'll be why UKIP's been invited to participate in the 2015 GE debates while the Greens and SNP haven't. Or not.
Grow up and grow some.
You're joking, right? It was the TV studios that invited them. David Cameron is actively trying to get them excluded.
You said "certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society".
If that is true, then how could the broadcasters possibly have agreed to invite them on to their platform, when there was no precedent for doing so and when their inclusion and others' exclusion is a matter of controversy? There quite simply is no such atmosphere at large.
You've had far too easy a ride from a pliant media and are now experiencing the kind of backlash what activists from all Parties have experienced for decades.
Honestly the shrill whingeing from UKIP sources on twitter is tedious. Act like adults and grow a pair.
Yes rather like the cybernats they seem to get everywhere and pronounce with the certainty pnly starry eyed messianic fervour confers.
Yes, I must say I was guilty of saying Carswell would walk the clacton by election, and recommended bets that turnout would be over 50% and labour would finish third
I also said that Heywood and Middleton would be a lot closer than. People would think
Against the kind of poll denying that has to be seen to be believed I am also one of v few people on here that has called Rochsster as an easy win for Ukip... That remains to be seen but people who disagreed are behind the8 ball betting wise
I also have bets vs many Ukip nay Sayers that they will poll over 10% and bt the lib dems next year... At odds against
So yes I have predicted Ukip would do well.. And they have
Do Kippers believe DC in his pledge to leave the EPP yet ? I'd say it would be 30-70 against.
The Conservatives EU parliament campaign reeked of dishonesty.
They trumpeted opting out of the EU Home and Justice affairs part of the Lisbon Treaty, in the full knowledge that they intended to opt back in after the election.
You said "certain politicians have certainly created an atmosphere that UKIP's views are illegitimate and should be excluded from British society".
If that is true, then how could the broadcasters possibly have agreed to invite them on to their platform, when there was no precedent for doing so and when their inclusion and others' exclusion is a matter of controversy? There quite simply is no such atmosphere at large.
Because it's an atmosphere the broadcasters are largely avoiding buying into. That doesn't mean that atmosphere doesn't exist. Just try hanging out in some left-leaning forums. An article in the Telegraph just the other day was headlined "Chuka Umunna on Ukip: vile, abhorrent and un-British". People like him are just not interested in civil discourse.
Do Kippers believe DC in his pledge to leave the EPP yet ? I'd say it would be 30-70 against.
Do you believe Cameron will come up with a proposal to significantly limit EU migration by Christmas?
Who will be his boss? Jean-Claude Juncker or the British people?
You in the huff because the Kipper Calypso didn't win a MOBO last night ?
Cameron would say he is going to have breakfast, eat scrambled egg then the Kippers would cry that he has reneged on his bacon pledge. Just a repository for whinging now.
This is a good poll for UKIP. They're not home and dry, but odds of 1/4 or 1/5 on them are now about right. The key is that this is the second poll by a different pollster showing them with a decent lead.
The key is a bloody poll with a named Tory candidate!
This is a good poll for UKIP. They're not home and dry, but odds of 1/4 or 1/5 on them are now about right. The key is that this is the second poll by a different pollster showing them with a decent lead.
The key is a bloody poll with a named Tory candidate!
Did the poll mention any names or just parties? If not then the name of the Tory is irrelevant for polling purposes (but obviously not for her).
We saw the attacks on UKIP's meetings during the Euro Elections.
They have lost the argument and violence is all they have left.
BTW, this is not a new occurrence, but the Tory Government stands by and does nothing. They really are the nasty party.
Members of all political parties get attacked by nutters (I did when I was a Conservative)). Brighton is both very left-wing, and, as a seaside town, has had many people with mental health issues sent there by other authorities. I wouldn't read too much into this incident.
But it's not an isolated incident, is it?
Farage in Edinburgh, UKIP meetings during the Euros.
Is there a more inappropriately named organisation than Hope Not Hate?
But, I'm sure you could find as many incidents of Conservative, Labour, and Lib Dem activists being assaulted.
UKIP activists will be targeted by extreme left fanatics, but so will Conservatives and Lib Dems. Labour activists will be targeted by the extreme right. All will be targeted by weirdos.
I doubt as many incidents, certainly of Labour activists being attacked.
Labour pols regularly get egged. Activists of all parties take abuse.
Only Labour have their little private army of stormtroopers in the form of UAF and the ironically named Hope not Hate.
It'll be more than that because it's not internally weighted.
I was going off the 268 "weighted base" but yes that is my point
And yet my analysis of a series of Scottish subsamples was dismissed as a nonsense I think...
The 268 is the weighted value of the 65+ subsection within the overall poll, but that subsection won't be internally weighted for e.g. male/female, 2010 VI, social class etc.
Thats a good point, so actually this analysis of the oldies having UKIP just 1% ahead of the Cons isn't really worth too much ^_~.
Looks like UKIP have the cake in terms of polling VI for the seat and the Cons are perhaps left with half a crumb or some such.
Funny. I remember all the Labour activists crying for their mummies and whining, when the Met kettled them. Maybe it's different for Owen Jones and Penny Red.
The Labour core is clearly people you do not like.
Dodging the existential question, eh?
Who, or what, are the Labour Party for?
If the working class are deserting, who are they for?
Can you simultaneously be for the average man and be pro-immigration when it suppresses the average man's wages and damages access to public infrastructure?
Can you be tough on immigration and yet dependent on ethnic votes in many areas?
Can you be a statist party when everyone demands devolution?
Can you be the party of big spending when the cupboard is bare?
Labour have no real idea of who they are for. The 1% in now anyone on £42,000.
You raise some interesting points. Where I have a problem with you is that you seem to hive off the working class from ethnic minorities. I don't. I don't mean that this makes you a racist, I mean that you seem to feel the needs of working class people are different based on their ethnicity. I don't share that belief. I believe that low wage earners of whatever ethnicity are having a very bad time of it at the moment, are seeing their living standards fall and are worried about the future for their kids. I also think that this anxiety moves further up the ladder and affects a lot of middle class people of all ethnicities. And it seems to me that a well-led Labour party should have its sights set firmly on this anxiety and how it can be tackled - not in sound-bites, but in sustainable policies. This is where Labour is failing spectacularly. It is clear that a lot of things are not working at the moment. Labour has even identified a few of them. But what it has failed to do under EdM is to advocate credible, coherent solutions. Until it does, it will struggle.
But in broad terms I'd say that as long as there is an absence of equality of opportunity in the UK and stagnating or falling incomes among those in work there will be a major role for a centre left party which believes that we are stronger if we work together to solve our problems using the state at whatever level (UK-wide, devolved or local) to redistribute wealth from rich to poor and to guarantee high standards of affordable service provision in areas such as health, housing, transport, education etc.
Funny. I remember all the Labour activists crying for their mummies and whining, when the Met kettled them. Maybe that's different.
I was so disappointed by that.
I thought kettling meant pouring boiling water on the soap dodgers and the great unwashed.
They'd still be whinging now if that had happened. BenM weeping because his Che Guevara sweatshirt got drenched, and the nasty-wasty policeman hit him with a truncheon.
Lets imagine for a second that for whatever reason you are a voter with the settled view that you dont want your country to be in the EU. Who do you realistically vote for ?
If you vote for Nigel, you will still either get no referendum, or a referendum on a wish and a prayer, since Nigel won't lead a government. But there is a chance that someone will need Nigel's votes and he will get some leverage, and you know that someone will be in parliament asking the sort of questions you want asked and trying to stop inconvenient issues being swept under the carpet.
If you dont think that EU membership is the real issue, you could substitute Immigration into the above, Ed won't do anything, Dave will talk a good game but not actually do anything, Nigel might become enough of a thorn in the establishments side to make something happen, or at least draw attention to things not happening.
UKIP is a coalition of the angry and the disenfranchised, they know Ed won't do anything, they think Dave will talk a good line and then not do anything either, the hope Nigel will be able to do something, or failing that slow down the others failure to do something, or failing that just give the establishment a damn good kicking for failing to provide them with a real option which makes them feel enfranchised.
Democracy, eh.
There is one flaw in your argument which is otherwise acute.
If you have a settled view that you want to leave the EU, then vote to get your referendum from Dave and see how many people agree with you.
That is the democratic process.
Q9 on this poll was:
"I believe David Cameron's promise to hold a referendum on EU membership if the Conservatives win power after next May's General Election" agree/disagree.
Agree: 47%, Disagree 47%.
This seems to break down on class lines. ABC1 mostly agree, C2DE mostly disagree.
Dave looked us all in the eye, promised us a referendum, perhaps the most categorical thing he has done in office (and I am not turning a blind eye to his spine's jelly-like tendencies), he knows he will be out on his ear if he reneges, it will be yes or no, not a shade of grey and people don't believe him.
Fine.
They are entitled to not believe him and there is nothing he or they can do to prove it one way or the other. Let's have those 47% vote Kipper or Lab or anything else and then it won't matter if Dave was ever going to make good on his promise.
Of course neither will there be a referendum, but those 47% will have made their point and presumably be satisfied.
Are the Kippers, who regularly lambast their opponents as scumbags and traitors, complaining about intemperate language from their opponents?
They don't. Not on here. The only accusations of treachery I see are from tories visiting from a parallel time-stream in which it is a fundamental principle of the UK constitution that electors elect parties, not individual candidates.
Are the Kippers, who regularly lambast their opponents as scumbags and traitors, complaining about intemperate language from their opponents?
They don't. Not on here. The only accusations of treachery I see are from tories visiting from a parallel time-stream in which it is a fundamental principle of the UK constitution that electors elect parties, not individual candidates.
I was told on here a few years ago, as a supporter of immigration I was a traitor to this country.
Many thanks to you, @JosiasJessop and @MaxPB - I've been just looking at the Xperia and am on EE now too.
My next question may sound like gobbledegook - I'm after a TV with wireless cum PC connectivity/an integrated DVD player/can link to FreeSat [not FreeView]. I gather I need to buy a FreeSat box.
Any suggestions for brands to check out or things to be watching for? I had a looksee last night and was swamped with acronyms and *they also bought this* liquorice gadgets that I've no idea about.
OT I'm about to buy a new mobile and wondered what you'd recommend - not bothered about the brand at all. I want one with GPS/good camera with a flash - do they all have them now? It's been a long time since I upgraded.
My youngest son has just purchased a Moto G 5" and absolutely loves its performance. He bought it unlocked through Amazon for £145.
He has now moved his number across to Asda Mobile (EE) to take advantage of their pricing and bundles. GiffGaff (O2) are another virtual mobile network that appears to be worth looking at.
So tomorrow's GDP number will be reasonable, at circa 0.7% thanks almost entirely to a strong first half of the quarter but Q4 is going to be much more ropey and Q1 2015 pretty much squeaky bum time for Osborne and the Tories.
By the way my best guess as a ready reckoner of con vote based on primaries is to treble the percentage of returns
So 75,000 letters were sent
If 7,500 were returned id predict a score of 30% ish in the election
Using a turnout of 50% and that 66% of Tory voters will have bothered returning the form
Any views?
I'm all in favour of such ready reckoners. We have few precedents of all-postal primaries, so the assumptions are dangerous, but any assumptions are better than none and your suggestions look sensible to me.
As in the "how many pianos in Chicago?" type of question, it is in any case likely that errors in the assumptions will tend to cancel each other out.
Do Kippers believe DC in his pledge to leave the EPP yet ? I'd say it would be 30-70 against.
Do you believe Cameron will come up with a proposal to significantly limit EU migration by Christmas?
Who will be his boss? Jean-Claude Juncker or the British people?
You in the huff because the Kipper Calypso didn't win a MOBO last night ?
Cameron would say he is going to have breakfast, eat scrambled egg then the Kippers would cry that he has reneged on his bacon pledge. Just a repository for whinging now.
I missed your answer in between your hilarious jokes. Perhaps you could clarify what it was?
By the way my best guess as a ready reckoner of con vote based on primaries is to treble the percentage of returns
So 75,000 letters were sent
If 7,500 were returned id predict a score of 30% ish in the election
Using a turnout of 50% and that 66% of Tory voters will have bothered returning the form
Any views?
I'm all in favour of such ready reckoners. We have few precedents of all-postal primaries, so the assumptions are dangerous, but any assumptions are better than none and your suggestions look sensible to me.
As in the "how many pianos in Chicago?" type of question, it is in any case likely that errors in the assumptions will tend to cancel each other out.
Cheers.. Well the totnes primary return was 75% of Tory vote and gosport was 52% so ridiculously small sample but taking the average ish can't be the worst idea... We can use both to see extremes well as varying the turnout prediction... Will be interesting to see tonight's returns
For any Scrabble fans out there - there's a super story about the new word lists in today's Times puzzle section. Apparently some numpty applied a rather simplistic computer program to create a new official listing that's changed verbs into nouns/vice versa and all the variables - e.g. rabies has been made into a plural, ‘rabieses’.
They are entitled to not believe him and there is nothing he or they can do to prove it one way or the other. Let's have those 47% vote Kipper or Lab or anything else and then it won't matter if Dave was ever going to make good on his promise.
Except he can't make good his promises, because nothing will have been agreed, never mind ratified by 2017, all he can do is offer his negotiating position. What happens when the other EU countries having seen the referendum passed safely, decided to not give Dave anything he asked for.
Not sure that their use of a 'company' to block sale of Bristol Rovers's ground will help them.
Bristol is an EU Green Capital, which might influence sentiment, but how far voters are interested in conferences on sustainable futures and the other events is an open question.
The Greens should bear in mind that Williams had over 12x the vote of their vote 26,593 to 2,090. It is a huge ask. Labour had 15,227 votes, but why switch to a bunch of no-hopers, when your party was still second? The LDs had c. 48% of the votes cast in 2010.
It begs questions about the student vote, most of those voters from 2010 will have graduated and moved on, will the students want to kick Williams or any other LD. UKIP didn't do particularly well in the local election, but could still do enough to take votes off the Tory candidate.
I would suggest that the more realistic challenge to Williams comes from Labour, not The Greens, though like UKIP they have the potential to damage the prospects of rival parties.
By the way my best guess as a ready reckoner of con vote based on primaries is to treble the percentage of returns
So 75,000 letters were sent
If 7,500 were returned id predict a score of 30% ish in the election
Using a turnout of 50% and that 66% of Tory voters will have bothered returning the form
Any views?
They look two perfectly decent candidates to me - not exceptional but the kind most Tory voters would be happy with.
I suppose from a marketing view you might say that there was a lack of 'product differentiation' and that neither Candidate was likely to enthuse diffident supporters, so maybe we shouldn't read too much into it if the voters of Rochester haven't returned too many of those slips.
Last nite's poll was pretty clear cut though. I agree with Antifrank that the Rochester odds on the win market look about right now. There hasn't been much corresponding movement on the related markets, so latecomers to the UKIP Value Odds Ball can still pick up a few bargains.
The poll pointed in the general direction of ten seats or more at the GE. That kind of result can still be backed in various markets at a decent return.
TSE - that was vile, but a few years ago is a few years ago.
I am a one-man three-way marginal between tory/ukip/stay at home and not bother. I think ukip on here - not necessarily in the country at large - are markedly outperforming the tories in terms of courtesy and reasonableness. I don't include you personally in that judgment.
So tomorrow's GDP number will be reasonable, at circa 0.7% thanks almost entirely to a strong first half of the quarter but Q4 is going to be much more ropey and Q1 2015 pretty much squeaky bum time for Osborne and the Tories.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if we got 0.8% for Q3 because growth was truly exceptional at the start of the quarter and there was a lot of upward momentum. But I do agree that there has been a loss of momentum since and Q4 is likely to be much lower.
It is probably too early to say what Q1 2015 will be like but if the EZ continues on its current trend it is unlikely to be good. Our brief period in the sun as the fastest growing economy is almost certainly over (although we will still do much better than the abysmal EU average).
We have seen repeatedly that GDP figures do not move voting intentions but the implications of a period of exceptional growth having almost no impact at all on our deficit should terrify all of our politicians. The next 5 years will see increased taxes and reduced public spending whoever wins the election. Austerity, not just for Christmas but for life.
Surely the fact that UKIP are just 1% ahead with the over 65s is more a positive point for them than a negative one since it obviously means they must be doing much better than usual with younger voters in order to be 13% ahead overall.
I have gone against my own rule that you rarely make money backing the Tories and backed the Blues at 4/1 this morning in Rochester. Just looked too generous. Sadly Bet 365 would only let me put £25 on.
You are right of course that the likelihood is that come the referendum nothing will have been settled. But that's ok also. People will have the facts, such as they are intelligible, in front of them and will make a decision.
Again, imperfect but not untypical politics.
If you're someone who is very unhappy with current EU arrangements,wouldn't it be better to have a referendum when there is a result of Dave's negotiations? As I understand it, the Tory offer is to say they'll negotiate to constrict freedom of movement etc., and promise a referendum on "Are you willing to stay on the basis of our negotiating package or do you want to leave anyway?" (the answer to which will clearly be "stay and negotiate", if the current polls are right) but NOT on "Do you like the result of the negotiation or do you now want to leave?"
So people who like the package but don't like the outcome will be stuffed, won't they? Or do you anticipate two referendums?
By the way my best guess as a ready reckoner of con vote based on primaries is to treble the percentage of returns
So 75,000 letters were sent
If 7,500 were returned id predict a score of 30% ish in the election
Using a turnout of 50% and that 66% of Tory voters will have bothered returning the form
Any views?
Sounds very reasonable as a central estimate, but what would the error bounds be?
I think you quoted figures of 50-75% for previous postal primaries, so assuming the same turnout, and using those return figures as bounds, then the multiplication factor would have bounds of (2.67, 4) [NB. not uniformly distributed in multiplication factor space].
Surely the fact that UKIP are just 1% ahead with the over 65s is more a positive point for them than a negative one since it obviously means they must be doing much better than usual with younger voters in order to be 13% ahead overall.
The story seems to go that they are doing less well with the demographic most likely to vote, and more well with the demographics mostly likely to stay at home. However I think the 1% being about a fifth of the subsample MoE (on a good day) means attaching any meaning to it at all should be treated with a large pinch of salt!
Re calypso songs and accents, there is one that Ukip should have used that is sung in Plain English and whose lyrics are for more relevant to the failed policies of 60s and 70s labour and Tory politicians
Only on intermittently at the moment - broadband problems. I'd be cautious about drawing many conclusions from the subsample, though it's probably true that elderly voters are usually the least willing to switch. What the ComRes poll does appear to show is that the £150,000 or whatever it is that the Tories have spent on direct mail about their primary has so far had no effect whatever - worth noting for all parties who might be tempted to do this sort of thing.
You are right of course that the likelihood is that come the referendum nothing will have been settled. But that's ok also. People will have the facts, such as they are intelligible, in front of them and will make a decision.
Again, imperfect but not untypical politics.
If you're someone who is very unhappy with current EU arrangements,wouldn't it be better to have a referendum when there is a result of Dave's negotiations? As I understand it, the Tory offer is to say they'll negotiate to constrict freedom of movement etc., and promise a referendum on "Are you willing to stay on the basis of our negotiating package or do you want to leave anyway?" (the answer to which will clearly be "stay and negotiate", if the current polls are right) but NOT on "Do you like the result of the negotiation or do you now want to leave?"
So people who like the package but don't like the outcome will be stuffed, won't they? Or do you anticipate two referendums?
Your questions seem exactly the same. What is the difference between the "package" and the "outcome" of the negotiations?
On the violence point, is it that leftism makes people feel entitled to be violent? I think not. People who like being violent are attracted to pretexts for being so.
Re referendum strategy, I'm generally net pro-EU but if Cameron asks us to vote for a negotiating position I'll vote Out.
He should campaign for an Out vote then go to Brussels and say I want this or we're out. If it's clear he has no mandate to leave if unsatisfied, then his position is precisely that of an AST tenant who doesn't like the landlord's rent demand. If you have no alternative course open, i.e. nowhere to move to, you hence have no negotiating position at all.
I have gone against my own rule that you rarely make money backing the Tories and backed the Blues at 4/1 this morning in Rochester. Just looked too generous. Sadly Bet 365 would only let me put £25 on.
Makes me feel pretty good about getting 5.9 this morning on Betfair :-)
DC seems intent on a clash with Juncker over the free movement of people. Or does he?
If he knows that cosmetic changes are guaranteed, it make sense. Otherwise, the only losers are Cameron and Europhiles. And he's given a Christmas deadline.
Is it a cunning plan or a panic move to see him past Rochester?
Peter I actually think the Tories may have missed a trick because their identikit candidates are so bland. That's what making me think my wager this morning is likely to be a loser (but may be tradable).
Labour actually have the best candidate but they aren't really fighting the seat, for wise tactical reasons.
By the way my best guess as a ready reckoner of con vote based on primaries is to treble the percentage of returns
So 75,000 letters were sent
If 7,500 were returned id predict a score of 30% ish in the election
Using a turnout of 50% and that 66% of Tory voters will have bothered returning the form
Any views?
They look two perfectly decent candidates to me - not exceptional but the kind most Tory voters would be happy with.
I suppose from a marketing view you might say that there was a lack of 'product differentiation' and that neither Candidate was likely to enthuse diffident supporters, so maybe we shouldn't read too much into it if the voters of Rochester haven't returned too many of those slips.
Last nite's poll was pretty clear cut though. I agree with Antifrank that the Rochester odds on the win market look about right now. There hasn't been much corresponding movement on the related markets, so latecomers to the UKIP Value Odds Ball can still pick up a few bargains.
The poll pointed in the general direction of ten seats or more at the GE. That kind of result can still be backed in various markets at a decent return.
And in dinosaur news...I'm sure this guy writes regularly for the Daily Mash!
Prof John Hutchinson, a palaeontologist from the UK's Royal Veterinary College, said: "Many dinosaur fans have seen pictures of the 8ft-long arms and hands, and they really are amazing and wonderful. People were really wondering what the rest of this animal looked like.
"Now we know, and it's just so freaking weird - we never would have expected this animal to look so bizarre.
Comments
Hmm. With Caterham's woes I was tempted by an early bet in their drivers not to be classified in the US (race weekend begins in about 8 days), but the market doesn't exist on Betfair and Ladbrokes haven't put it up yet.
Other than that...no idea!
What was noticeable was the number of misspellings on the anti-Catholic banners at events. You will always get feeble-minded individuals wishing to feel part of a group turning on a vilified minority.
The Moto G is generally considered to be excellent value at ~£130, but more expensive smartphones will normally have better cameras if you're willing to spend £400 or more.
I get it: you do not like left wing people. But to blame them for murders is like blaming right wing people for inciting what Breivik did in Norway or for the Oklahoma bombing. I guess that if you accept that the right wing establishment in Norway and the US, respectively, incited those attacks you will at least be consistent. Though even then I would have to disagree with you.
The fashion was for small phones, I've been using an ancient Nokia 6300 after dropping my other one in the sink - today's ones seem enormous in comparison. Are either type vulnerable to arse-dialling? My Blackberry Storm was useless and rang everyone in my phonebook.
Farage in Edinburgh, UKIP meetings during the Euros.
Is there a more inappropriately named organisation than Hope Not Hate?
Who, or what, are the Labour Party for?
If the working class are deserting, who are they for?
Can you simultaneously be for the average man and be pro-immigration when it suppresses the average man's wages and damages access to public infrastructure?
Can you be tough on immigration and yet dependent on ethnic votes in many areas?
Can you be a statist party when everyone demands devolution?
Can you be the party of big spending when the cupboard is bare?
Labour have no real idea of who they are for. The 1% in now anyone on £42,000.
What must worry Labour more is the consistent polling that shows they aren't getting the 18-24 vote.
UKIP activists will be targeted by extreme left fanatics, but so will Conservatives and Lib Dems. Labour activists will be targeted by the extreme right. All will be targeted by weirdos.
Grow up and grow some.
Brighton is very much like that in my experience
And yet my analysis of a series of Scottish subsamples was dismissed as a nonsense I think...
http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/News/Areas/Maidenhead/Execute-them-Councillor-proposes-shocking-solution-for-removing-travellers-22102014.htm
Democracy involves a bit of rough and tumble.
You've had far too easy a ride from a pliant media and are now experiencing the kind of backlash what activists from all Parties have experienced for decades.
Honestly the shrill whingeing from UKIP sources on twitter is tedious. Act like adults and grow a pair.
Labour pols regularly get egged. Activists of all parties take abuse.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/11181475/Jon-Snow-acted-like-playground-bully-says-Tory-MP.html?WT.mc_id=e_3631564&WT.tsrc=email&etype=frontpage&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_FAM_New_2014_10_23&utm_campaign=3631564
Klan of
Internet
Paranoia
Amazing that a party set up by workers inflicted this on them. Like a trade union gone bad
' This year I visited Wisbech – where a third of the 30,000 population is now estimated to be from overseas – and what was happening there spoke loud truths about why free movement has become so politicised. For all that recently arrived families have started to settle, and their children are acquiring new, hybrid identities, there are still glaring problems. Young men from eastern Europe often live four or five to a room, and work impossibly long hours; with echoes of Europe’s macroeconomic asymmetries, the local labour market is divided between insufficient jobs that be can be done by people with families and mortgages, and a surfeit of opportunities for those who will work whenever they are required for a relative pittance.
This creates endless tension. There have also been inevitable problems surrounding how far schools and doctors’ surgeries have been stretched. Is anyone surprised? Moreover, even if such places represent socioeconomic extremes, similar problems surface whenever large-scale migration fuses with the more precarious parts of the economy. In modern Britain, this obviously happens often, and the under-reported consequences of austerity have hardly helped.
What passes for the modern left tends to be far too blase about all this. Perhaps those who reduce people’s worries and fears to mere bigotry should go back to first principles, and consider whether, in such laissez-faire conditions, free movement has been of most benefit to capital or labour. They might also think about the dread spectacle of people from upscale London postcodes passing judgment on people who experience large-scale migration as something real.'
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/22/wisbech-immigration-politicians-david-cameron-ukip-eu-exit
He has now moved his number across to Asda Mobile (EE) to take advantage of their pricing and bundles. GiffGaff (O2) are another virtual mobile network that appears to be worth looking at.
The phone and networks are reviewed here... http://kenstechtips.com/
"I believe David Cameron's promise to hold a referendum on EU membership if the Conservatives win power after next May's General Election" agree/disagree.
Agree: 47%, Disagree 47%.
This seems to break down on class lines. ABC1 mostly agree, C2DE mostly disagree.
UKIP by-election supporters are +30/-68.
p.28
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Rochester_&_Strood_published_tables_Oct_2014.pdf
Who will be his boss? Jean-Claude Juncker or the British people?
If that is true, then how could the broadcasters possibly have agreed to invite them on to their platform, when there was no precedent for doing so and when their inclusion and others' exclusion is a matter of controversy? There quite simply is no such atmosphere at large.
I also said that Heywood and Middleton would be a lot closer than. People would think
Against the kind of poll denying that has to be seen to be believed I am also one of v few people on here that has called Rochsster as an easy win for Ukip... That remains to be seen but people who disagreed are behind the8 ball betting wise
I also have bets vs many Ukip nay Sayers that they will poll over 10% and bt the lib dems next year... At odds against
So yes I have predicted Ukip would do well.. And they have
They trumpeted opting out of the EU Home and Justice affairs part of the Lisbon Treaty, in the full knowledge that they intended to opt back in after the election.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/telegraphwire/2014/10/22/none-of-the-above-the-role-of-non-voters-in-general-election-2015/
Cameron would say he is going to have breakfast, eat scrambled egg then the Kippers would cry that he has reneged on his bacon pledge. Just a repository for whinging now.
Looks like UKIP have the cake in terms of polling VI for the seat and the Cons are perhaps left with half a crumb or some such.
I thought kettling meant pouring boiling water on the soap dodgers and the great unwashed.
But in broad terms I'd say that as long as there is an absence of equality of opportunity in the UK and stagnating or falling incomes among those in work there will be a major role for a centre left party which believes that we are stronger if we work together to solve our problems using the state at whatever level (UK-wide, devolved or local) to redistribute wealth from rich to poor and to guarantee high standards of affordable service provision in areas such as health, housing, transport, education etc.
Dave looked us all in the eye, promised us a referendum, perhaps the most categorical thing he has done in office (and I am not turning a blind eye to his spine's jelly-like tendencies), he knows he will be out on his ear if he reneges, it will be yes or no, not a shade of grey and people don't believe him.
Fine.
They are entitled to not believe him and there is nothing he or they can do to prove it one way or the other. Let's have those 47% vote Kipper or Lab or anything else and then it won't matter if Dave was ever going to make good on his promise.
Of course neither will there be a referendum, but those 47% will have made their point and presumably be satisfied.
So 75,000 letters were sent
If 7,500 were returned id predict a score of 30% ish in the election
Using a turnout of 50% and that 66% of Tory voters will have bothered returning the form
Any views?
My next question may sound like gobbledegook - I'm after a TV with wireless cum PC connectivity/an integrated DVD player/can link to FreeSat [not FreeView]. I gather I need to buy a FreeSat box.
Any suggestions for brands to check out or things to be watching for? I had a looksee last night and was swamped with acronyms and *they also bought this* liquorice gadgets that I've no idea about.
As in the "how many pianos in Chicago?" type of question, it is in any case likely that errors in the assumptions will tend to cancel each other out.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Green-party-targets-Bristol-key-election/story-23374372-detail/story.html
One of the Green Councillors made The Daily Mail earlier on this year, not good publicity...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2635019/Councillor-slammed-complained-salary-Twitter-despite-earning-32-000-year.html
Not sure that their use of a 'company' to block sale of Bristol Rovers's ground will help them.
Bristol is an EU Green Capital, which might influence sentiment, but how far voters are interested in conferences on sustainable futures and the other events is an open question.
The Greens should bear in mind that Williams had over 12x the vote of their vote 26,593 to 2,090. It is a huge ask. Labour had 15,227 votes, but why switch to a bunch of no-hopers, when your party was still second? The LDs had c. 48% of the votes cast in 2010.
It begs questions about the student vote, most of those voters from 2010 will have graduated and moved on, will the students want to kick Williams or any other LD. UKIP didn't do particularly well in the local election, but could still do enough to take votes off the Tory candidate.
I would suggest that the more realistic challenge to Williams comes from Labour, not The Greens, though like UKIP they have the potential to damage the prospects of rival parties.
I suppose from a marketing view you might say that there was a lack of 'product differentiation' and that neither Candidate was likely to enthuse diffident supporters, so maybe we shouldn't read too much into it if the voters of Rochester haven't returned too many of those slips.
Last nite's poll was pretty clear cut though. I agree with Antifrank that the Rochester odds on the win market look about right now. There hasn't been much corresponding movement on the related markets, so latecomers to the UKIP Value Odds Ball can still pick up a few bargains.
The poll pointed in the general direction of ten seats or more at the GE. That kind of result can still be backed in various markets at a decent return.
I am a one-man three-way marginal between tory/ukip/stay at home and not bother. I think ukip on here - not necessarily in the country at large - are markedly outperforming the tories in terms of courtesy and reasonableness. I don't include you personally in that judgment.
It is probably too early to say what Q1 2015 will be like but if the EZ continues on its current trend it is unlikely to be good. Our brief period in the sun as the fastest growing economy is almost certainly over (although we will still do much better than the abysmal EU average).
We have seen repeatedly that GDP figures do not move voting intentions but the implications of a period of exceptional growth having almost no impact at all on our deficit should terrify all of our politicians. The next 5 years will see increased taxes and reduced public spending whoever wins the election. Austerity, not just for Christmas but for life.
@guardian: William Shatner in early talks for Star Trek 3 http://t.co/sAoizJKZzE via @guardian
Surely the fact that UKIP are just 1% ahead with the over 65s is more a positive point for them than a negative one since it obviously means they must be doing much better than usual with younger voters in order to be 13% ahead overall.
So people who like the package but don't like the outcome will be stuffed, won't they? Or do you anticipate two referendums?
I think you quoted figures of 50-75% for previous postal primaries, so assuming the same turnout, and using those return figures as bounds, then the multiplication factor would have bounds of (2.67, 4) [NB. not uniformly distributed in multiplication factor space].
The planners dream goes wrong by the jam
http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/jam/theplannersdreamgoeswrong.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5RVeQFK0LM
Re referendum strategy, I'm generally net pro-EU but if Cameron asks us to vote for a negotiating position I'll vote Out.
He should campaign for an Out vote then go to Brussels and say I want this or we're out. If it's clear he has no mandate to leave if unsatisfied, then his position is precisely that of an AST tenant who doesn't like the landlord's rent demand. If you have no alternative course open, i.e. nowhere to move to, you hence have no negotiating position at all.
http://www.crawleynews.co.uk/REVEALED-Sussex-s-worst-restaurants-pubs-cafes/story-23202370-detail/story.html
If he knows that cosmetic changes are guaranteed, it make sense. Otherwise, the only losers are Cameron and Europhiles. And he's given a Christmas deadline.
Is it a cunning plan or a panic move to see him past Rochester?
I actually think the Tories may have missed a trick because their identikit candidates are so bland. That's what making me think my wager this morning is likely to be a loser (but may be tradable).
Labour actually have the best candidate but they aren't really fighting the seat, for wise tactical reasons.
Prof John Hutchinson, a palaeontologist from the UK's Royal Veterinary College, said: "Many dinosaur fans have seen pictures of the 8ft-long arms and hands, and they really are amazing and wonderful. People were really wondering what the rest of this animal looked like.
"Now we know, and it's just so freaking weird - we never would have expected this animal to look so bizarre.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-29729412