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LDs 67% favourite in Mid Beds, LAB 88% in Uxbridge & S Ruislip – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,125
edited June 2023 in General
imageLDs 67% favourite in Mid Beds, LAB 88% in Uxbridge & S Ruislip – politicalbetting.com

When I went on holiday a week ago there was no hint that we could have three Westminster by-elections on the table on my return. Whatever it is there seems to be a trend of big political developments happening when I’m on holiday and this has become something of a joke amongst the PB team.

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Test
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    I have been busy.

    Other than Man City making my youngest extremely happy, has much been happening?
  • JenSJenS Posts: 91
    Second
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,568
    Works ok on vanilla
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,568
    edited June 2023
    Test - seems ok on PB.com too.

    Now, where was I? Ah yes:

    First! (oh...)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    Museums rarely make me emotional. The DC Air and Space Museum just brought me very close to blubbing. Twice. Because of this



    And this

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,453
    Cyclefree said:

    I have been busy.

    Other than Man City making my youngest extremely happy, has much been happening?

    It's been very hot and dry in my garden.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    And this



  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,568
    edited June 2023
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have been busy.

    Other than Man City making my youngest extremely happy, has much been happening?

    It's been very hot and dry in my garden.
    We've had 1.2mm of rain here today - first rain for 23 days.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    We went from the first manned powered heavier than air flight - for about 1 minute a few feet above sand dunes - to putting a man on the MOON (and returning him) in 66 years

    That is mind blowing

    What have we done with the 54 years since Apollo 11?

    I guess if we achieve AI then we can say Yeah we did it again
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,629
    Any by elections soon? 👍
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 877
    Leon said:

    Museums rarely make me emotional. The DC Air and Space Museum just brought me very close to blubbing. Twice. Because of this



    And this

    If you have time, I'd recommend checking out the Museum of the American Indian. I spent a full day there and it was fascinating. I was gutted the Air and Space Museum was closed when I was in DC, though if it had been open I probably wouldn't have seen much else!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,527
    Leon said:

    Museums rarely make me emotional. The DC Air and Space Museum just brought me very close to blubbing. Twice. Because of this



    And this

    Keep your eye out for Spirit of St Louis.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,323
    Farooq said:

    Four Westminster by-elections, I think. I know one of them isn't "certain" but it will be coming along at some point, really.

    The answer to your question FPT, is no. I reported Russian government reports that the Ukrainians had attempted to breach Russian lines at multiple points. I neither said that they had or hadn't. That also referred to the Bakhmut front. As it turned out the Ukrainians had.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    Unpopular said:

    Leon said:

    Museums rarely make me emotional. The DC Air and Space Museum just brought me very close to blubbing. Twice. Because of this



    And this

    If you have time, I'd recommend checking out the Museum of the American Indian. I spent a full day there and it was fascinating. I was gutted the Air and Space Museum was closed when I was in DC, though if it had been open I probably wouldn't have seen much else!
    Half of it is shut for renovation and half of the collection is now in a new museum out of town

    It doesn’t matter. It actually makes it better. There are only two exhibitions you really need to see

    The Wright Brothers with the actual first plane - utterly spine tingling - and then the NASA space endeavours ending with the actual Apollo 11 and Armstrong’s space suit. They have a video montage of the 1960s culminating in the Eagle has Landed along with Woodstock and Vietnam and the Rolling Stones and JFK dying and the Beatles and Martin Luther King and right behind you is the Apollo capsule

    Honestly. Tears were close
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,606
    I tend to agree re Selby (I live in the constituency). Under Truss, I really thought it could have been in play - and it also could be more interesting under new boundaries. But this is fertile ground for culture war stuff, so doesn't favour a e.g. Lib Dem surge through the middle. The constituency is split between the largely Lab voting town and the largely Con voting countryside and I expect the countryside will stay fairly firm while the town goes 'meh'.

    Johnson still popular(ish) though. If the by elections are sold as Johnson versus Sunak then a Tory voter strike, in solidarity with Johnson, is possible.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,562
    In Mid Bedfordshire, watch Gareth Mackay, Independent candidate. Could throw a real spanner in the works.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 877
    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    Some of the monuments are quite good. The MLK, FDR and, of course Lincoln memorials are impressive but I actually found the Eisenhower Memorial to be quite moving. Same with the Korean War Memorial.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784
    Welcome back to OGH. I hope you were incommunicado so it all came as a bit of a shock.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,629
    LAB gain massive Uxbridge. Bit like Rutherglen. If they don't win huge they are not on track for GE win

    Mid Beds - LD seat for 18 months

    Selby - maybe CON hold
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    Fuck. Need a beer
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,141
    Phew, OGH is back.

    Nuclear war is off the table again - for now...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,527
    I take this opportunity, with your kind (or otherwise) indulgence, to announce my candidacy in the upcoming by-election for the parliamentary constituency of Selby.

    I shall be standing under my discourtesy title of Lord Dingleberry, in the interest of the "Give Psephologists An Even Break" Party.

    Allow me to say, I am extremely proud of my alleged Yorkshire roots. Some of my ancestors may have hailed from Crackpot in the North Riding. Or at least I've often heard them referred to, as a bunch of Crackpots.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,796
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    We went from the first manned powered heavier than air flight - for about 1 minute a few feet above sand dunes - to putting a man on the MOON (and returning him) in 66 years

    That is mind blowing

    What have we done with the 54 years since Apollo 11?

    I guess if we achieve AI then we can say Yeah we did it again

    We've managed to get you from front door to some freebie champagne lounge at Heathrow in around 30 minutes (this bit may be made up) so there is that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    edited June 2023
    Unpopular said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    Some of the monuments are quite good. The MLK, FDR and, of course Lincoln memorials are impressive but I actually found the Eisenhower Memorial to be quite moving. Same with the Korean War Memorial.
    I find them all bombastic. And vulgar. I wasn’t particularly impressed by the Vietnam War memorial either, to be honest (but that’s probably because I’ve read about it so much, so I knew exactly what to expect)

    But I’ve just been to two of the greatest museums on the planet, and the second - Air and Space - probably gave me the most intense “museum experience” of my life. So 🤷‍♂️

    Very glad I came. Very glad. Have no need to return
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784
    edited June 2023
    One consequence of massive swings in Tiverton and Honiton, Chesham and Amersham, and North Shropshire of course, is that it will become a bit expected. That might help the LDs with motivation, but managing it every time may be a tad unreaslitic even with a governing party tearing itself to pieces.

    The LDs have won from as far back as 10%, so even by their standards Selby looks tough on paper, and Labour don't seem to manage quite such dramatic swings so I'd think Selebian has the right of it on that one.

    Mid-Bedfordshire looks like a near repeat, on proportions at least, of some of the other big LDs wins from third place, so it makes sense that people would make it a good chance of a LD gain.

    And of course any latent Boris supporters will stay at home or vote Labour in Uxbridge to punish Rishi, then there's natural reduction from the Tories being low in the polling, and I'd bet a whole £5 on Labour winning it - the same amount Murray Foote would bet on Sturgeon's innocence.

    So we might even get a nice exciting one Con, one Lab, one LD out of it. As londonpubman suggests Mid-Bedfordshire could be a temporary win, like Brecon and Radnorshire.

    Frankly, Rishi would take that right now.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,629
    The reappearance of OGH is good news and means we can look forward to a nice calm week in the sun ☀️
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Leon said:

    We went from the first manned powered heavier than air flight - for about 1 minute a few feet above sand dunes - to putting a man on the MOON (and returning him) in 66 years

    That is mind blowing

    What have we done with the 54 years since Apollo 11?

    I guess if we achieve AI then we can say Yeah we did it again

    We've managed to get you from front door to some freebie champagne lounge at Heathrow in around 30 minutes (this bit may be made up) so there is that.
    “Some freebie champagne lounge”????

    It was THE CONCORDE ROOM

    Otherwise yes. I see your point. All is not lost
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,629
    kle4 said:

    One consequence of massive swings in Tiverton and Honiton, Chesham and Amersham, and North Shropshire of course, is that it will become a bit expected. That might help the LDs with motivation, but managing it every time may be a tad unreaslitic even with a governing party tearing itself to pieces.

    The LDs have won from as far back as 10%, so even by their standards Selby looks tough on paper, and Labour don't seem to manage quite such dramatic swings so I'd think Selebian has the right of it on that one.

    Mid-Bedfordshire looks like a near repeat, on proportions at least, of some of the other big LDs wins from third place, so it makes sense that people would make it a good chance of a LD gain.

    And of course any latent Boris supporters will stay at home or vote Labour in Uxbridge to punish Rishi, then there's natural reduction from the Tories being low in the polling, and I'd bet a whole £5 on Labour winning it - the same amount Murray Foote would bet on Sturgeon's innocence.

    So we might even get a nice exciting one Con, one Lab, one LD out of it. As londonpubman suggests Mid-Bedfordshire could be a temporary win, like Brecon and Radnorshire.

    Frankly, Rishi would take that right now.

    If I was Rishi I would take that. As Meat Loaf nearly said once 'one out of three ain't bad' !
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,527
    Leon said:

    Unpopular said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    Some of the monuments are quite good. The MLK, FDR and, of course Lincoln memorials are impressive but I actually found the Eisenhower Memorial to be quite moving. Same with the Korean War Memorial.
    I find them all bombastic. And vulgar. I wasn’t particularly impressed by the Vietnam War memorial either, to be honest (but that’s probably because I’ve read about it so much, so I knew exactly what to expect)

    But I’ve just been to two of the greatest museums on the planet, and the second - Air and Space - probably gave me the most intense “museum experience” of my life. So 🤷‍♂️

    Very glad I came. Very glad. Have no need to return
    You have yet to see THE original Teddy Bear at Museum of American History.

    Ditto Taft's (White House) bathtub.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 877
    Leon said:

    Unpopular said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    Some of the monuments are quite good. The MLK, FDR and, of course Lincoln memorials are impressive but I actually found the Eisenhower Memorial to be quite moving. Same with the Korean War Memorial.
    I find them all bombastic. And vulgar. I wasn’t particularly impressed by the Vietnam War memorial either, to be honest (but that’s probably because I’ve read about it so much, so I knew exactly what to expect)

    But I’ve just been to two of the greatest museums I’ve ever seen in my life, and the second - Air and Space - probably gave me the most intense “museum experience” of my life. So 🤷‍♂️

    Very glad I came. Very glad. Have no need to return
    Agree with the Vietnam Memorial.

    That's how I feel about DC too. I really liked it, it was a bit of a hole, I had a great time, I'm glad I've seen it and I'll probably never go back.

    And yet, having a cold beer on the waterfront by the lazy Potomac or sitting in a rooftop bar with the Capitol in the distance as the sun goes down...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,780
    Leon said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Leon said:

    We went from the first manned powered heavier than air flight - for about 1 minute a few feet above sand dunes - to putting a man on the MOON (and returning him) in 66 years

    That is mind blowing

    What have we done with the 54 years since Apollo 11?

    I guess if we achieve AI then we can say Yeah we did it again

    We've managed to get you from front door to some freebie champagne lounge at Heathrow in around 30 minutes (this bit may be made up) so there is that.
    “Some freebie champagne lounge”????

    It was THE CONCORDE ROOM

    Otherwise yes. I see your point. All is not lost
    Yeah but no but yeah but no you didn't actually fly on Concorde did you?

    All mouth and no trousers... ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    I'm not sure Selby will be held at a BE. Castle Point would probably be a close run thing tbh.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,323
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    Unpopular said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    Some of the monuments are quite good. The MLK, FDR and, of course Lincoln memorials are impressive but I actually found the Eisenhower Memorial to be quite moving. Same with the Korean War Memorial.
    I find them all bombastic. And vulgar. I wasn’t particularly impressed by the Vietnam War memorial either, to be honest (but that’s probably because I’ve read about it so much, so I knew exactly what to expect)

    But I’ve just been to two of the greatest museums on the planet, and the second - Air and Space - probably gave me the most intense “museum experience” of my life. So 🤷‍♂️

    Very glad I came. Very glad. Have no need to return
    I quite like Washington. Used to visit the area frequently partially for work, some of it in Crystal City, a truly soulless place, then stay on for a bit to catch up with friends. Eventually after a bit of testing I settled on Alexandria as the best locale to stay in and travel into DC
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784
    Sizable (at least geographic) changes coming to the Selby and Ainsty constituency in the new boundaries from the looks of it. Seems to be spreading west to include the area of Kippax and losing Tadcaster.

    Mid Bedforshire will be losing Stagsden, Old Warden, and Shefford.

    Uxbridge practically looks like it doubles in size, geographically.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,122
    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784
    Frankly all parties should unite behind Count Binface in Uxbridge, even though Boris is not standing there.

    He's a passionate remainer anti Tory so he'd tick all necessary boxes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    Hoping for a quiet IPA I’ve walked into Washington’s Pride Parade and Official Kink Carnival



  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,527
    Yokes said:

    Leon said:

    Unpopular said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    Some of the monuments are quite good. The MLK, FDR and, of course Lincoln memorials are impressive but I actually found the Eisenhower Memorial to be quite moving. Same with the Korean War Memorial.
    I find them all bombastic. And vulgar. I wasn’t particularly impressed by the Vietnam War memorial either, to be honest (but that’s probably because I’ve read about it so much, so I knew exactly what to expect)

    But I’ve just been to two of the greatest museums on the planet, and the second - Air and Space - probably gave me the most intense “museum experience” of my life. So 🤷‍♂️

    Very glad I came. Very glad. Have no need to return
    I quite like Washington. Used to visit the area frequently partially for work, some of it in Crystal City, a truly soulless place, then stay on for a bit to catch up with friends. Eventually after a bit of testing I settled on Alexandria as the best locale to stay in and travel into DC
    Personally speaking, top two DC museums that I've not visited, and would very much like to, are:

    > Museum of the American Indian

    > Museum of the Bible

    My understanding is that both are outstanding.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    Iconic photo there
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    The new Tory attack line on SKS seems to be that he's actually in favour of Just Stop Oil interrupting sports events. But as far as I know, he's voted and supports neutering them?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    edited June 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    The architecture. It’s like Buenos Aires redesigned by Franco with endless money. It’s quasi Fascist. An attempt to project power by sheer size and scale but actually expresses the insecurity of a needy nation. How many columns do you really require?

    Also why is everything this weird sludgy grey-brown colour, like waste water?

    And yet: the museums. You absolutely have to come here for the museums. Unbelievably good
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,527
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    Nothing in Washington DC is small. Buildings as rule are NOT tall (limit being tipy-top of US Capitol) but they are massive. Ditto monuments, very monumental.

    Proto-brutalist style from post-Civil War forward to today.

    Much of it best viewed, like Yokes just said, by moonlight. Or at least with a view of the city reflected in the limpid waters of the Potomoc.

    By the way, I quite like Foggy Bottom. Not the State Department, or even the hood around it. The name!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784
    On the lighter side of things, apparently the CW network, best known for making tweeny dramas starring absurdly good looking 20 year olds, has picked up a show about Jesus, and have a fun way of describing it.

    No comment except to say that calling Jesus/Christianity “the biggest IP of all time” is the funniest thing a network exec has ever done

    https://twitter.com/literyture/status/1667254723416674322?cxt=HHwWpMC-tczVo6MuAAAA
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,323
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Yokes said:

    Leon said:

    Unpopular said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    Some of the monuments are quite good. The MLK, FDR and, of course Lincoln memorials are impressive but I actually found the Eisenhower Memorial to be quite moving. Same with the Korean War Memorial.
    I find them all bombastic. And vulgar. I wasn’t particularly impressed by the Vietnam War memorial either, to be honest (but that’s probably because I’ve read about it so much, so I knew exactly what to expect)

    But I’ve just been to two of the greatest museums on the planet, and the second - Air and Space - probably gave me the most intense “museum experience” of my life. So 🤷‍♂️

    Very glad I came. Very glad. Have no need to return
    I quite like Washington. Used to visit the area frequently partially for work, some of it in Crystal City, a truly soulless place, then stay on for a bit to catch up with friends. Eventually after a bit of testing I settled on Alexandria as the best locale to stay in and travel into DC
    Personally speaking, top two DC museums that I've not visited, and would very much like to, are:

    > Museum of the American Indian

    > Museum of the Bible

    My understanding is that both are outstanding.
    Fair to say that I have not been to either.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,527
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    The architecture. It’s like Buenos Aires redesigned by Franco with endless money. It’s quasi Fascist. An attempt to project power by sheer size and scale but actually expresses the insecurity of a needy nation. How many columns do you really require?

    Also why is everything this weird sludgy grey-brown colour, like waste water?

    And yet: the museums. You absolutely have to come here for the museums. Unbelievably good
    Part of the massive blockiness, so evident in the Federal Triangle (bounded by the Mall and Pennsylvania Ave, between Capitol and White House) is because

    > height limit on buildings = no higher than statue of Liberty atop Capitol (Washington Monument exception).

    > need for larger and larger office space for federal government branches, departments, agencies, etc., esp. from New Deal and WW2 forward.

    > extreme reluctance & resistance on part of federal depts, etc. to locate OUTSIDE the District of Columbia, or adjacent counties of MD and VA (similar to London?)

    > American love of bigness (last but hardly least).
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,527
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    The architecture. It’s like Buenos Aires redesigned by Franco with endless money. It’s quasi Fascist. An attempt to project power by sheer size and scale but actually expresses the insecurity of a needy nation. How many columns do you really require?

    Also why is everything this weird sludgy grey-brown colour, like waste water?

    And yet: the museums. You absolutely have to come here for the museums. Unbelievably good
    Re: the museums, you've barely scratched the surface.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    Definitely come if you can. Just to see the Capitol, the White House, the war memorials and presidential stuff. Don’t expect European beauty and grace. It ain’t that. It’s boastful, overdone and monotonous. But it is America’s capital and for that alone it needs to be seen

    And give yourself at least two full days for the world class museums. As I might have mentioned 🥂🥂
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,527
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    Definitely come if you can. Just to see the Capitol, the White House, the war memorials and presidential stuff. Don’t expect European beauty and grace. It ain’t that. It’s boastful, overdone and monotonous. But it is America’s capital and for that alone it needs to be seen

    And give yourself at least two full days for the world class museums. As I might have mentioned 🥂🥂
    AND try to avoid visiting DC in the summertime! Unless of course hot AND humid is your thing.

    ADDENDUM - BTW, Leon, how are you liking the Metro? Certainly convenient from the Mall to Alexandria.

    Speaking of transportation, back in the day, DC had the best taxi cab service I personally ever saw - and I used to DRIVE a cab.

    They had a great grid system, which worked well for riders.

    AND the cab drivers (virtually all Black when I rode with them) were some of the nicest guys imaginable. Really.

    Still remember time, more than half-century ago, when we were on family vacation to Washington, and my Dad left his camera in a taxi. That driver drove around for blocks until he found us, just so he could return it.

    Native politeness AND professional pride.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Leon said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Leon said:

    We went from the first manned powered heavier than air flight - for about 1 minute a few feet above sand dunes - to putting a man on the MOON (and returning him) in 66 years

    That is mind blowing

    What have we done with the 54 years since Apollo 11?

    I guess if we achieve AI then we can say Yeah we did it again

    We've managed to get you from front door to some freebie champagne lounge at Heathrow in around 30 minutes (this bit may be made up) so there is that.
    “Some freebie champagne lounge”????

    It was THE CONCORDE ROOM

    Otherwise yes. I see your point. All is not lost
    Yeah but no but yeah but no you didn't actually fly on Concorde did you?

    All mouth and no trousers... ;)
    I know it is very late @RochdalePioneers so apologies but very sorry to hear about your Father. May we all have such an exit as he clearly had.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,323
    edited June 2023
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    Nothing in Washington DC is small. Buildings as rule are NOT tall (limit being tipy-top of US Capitol) but they are massive. Ditto monuments, very monumental.

    Proto-brutalist style from post-Civil War forward to today.

    Much of it best viewed, like Yokes just said, by moonlight. Or at least with a view of the city reflected in the limpid waters of the Potomoc.

    By the way, I quite like Foggy Bottom. Not the State Department, or even the hood around it. The name!
    I did once watch the 4th July fireworks from the bank of the Potomac at the bottom of Old Town in Alexandria. Very pleasant.

    My attempt to recreate Rocky by running up the steps of the Washington Masonic Memorial, less pleasant
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    The architecture. It’s like Buenos Aires redesigned by Franco with endless money. It’s quasi Fascist. An attempt to project power by sheer size and scale but actually expresses the insecurity of a needy nation. How many columns do you really require?

    Also why is everything this weird sludgy grey-brown colour, like waste water?

    And yet: the museums. You absolutely have to come here for the museums. Unbelievably good
    Re: the museums, you've barely scratched the surface.
    I’m staying an extra day for them alone. Not staying for yet another neo classical splodge of shite or pomo-by-Ceaucescu like THIS


  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,527
    Yokes said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    Nothing in Washington DC is small. Buildings as rule are NOT tall (limit being tipy-top of US Capitol) but they are massive. Ditto monuments, very monumental.

    Proto-brutalist style from post-Civil War forward to today.

    Much of it best viewed, like Yokes just said, by moonlight. Or at least with a view of the city reflected in the limpid waters of the Potomoc.

    By the way, I quite like Foggy Bottom. Not the State Department, or even the hood around it. The name!
    I did once watch the 4th July fireworks from the bank of the Potomac at the bottom of Old Town in Alexandria. Very pleasant.

    My attempt to recreate Rocky by running up the steps of the Washington Masonic Memorial, less pleasant
    You were heckled by outraged Masons?
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,323
    edited June 2023
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Yokes said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    Nothing in Washington DC is small. Buildings as rule are NOT tall (limit being tipy-top of US Capitol) but they are massive. Ditto monuments, very monumental.

    Proto-brutalist style from post-Civil War forward to today.

    Much of it best viewed, like Yokes just said, by moonlight. Or at least with a view of the city reflected in the limpid waters of the Potomoc.

    By the way, I quite like Foggy Bottom. Not the State Department, or even the hood around it. The name!
    I did once watch the 4th July fireworks from the bank of the Potomac at the bottom of Old Town in Alexandria. Very pleasant.

    My attempt to recreate Rocky by running up the steps of the Washington Masonic Memorial, less pleasant
    You were heckled by outraged Masons?
    You know that summer humidity, I dont think any outraged masons would have got within a bargepole length of me without dropping from the stink.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,527
    Yokes said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Yokes said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    Nothing in Washington DC is small. Buildings as rule are NOT tall (limit being tipy-top of US Capitol) but they are massive. Ditto monuments, very monumental.

    Proto-brutalist style from post-Civil War forward to today.

    Much of it best viewed, like Yokes just said, by moonlight. Or at least with a view of the city reflected in the limpid waters of the Potomoc.

    By the way, I quite like Foggy Bottom. Not the State Department, or even the hood around it. The name!
    I did once watch the 4th July fireworks from the bank of the Potomac at the bottom of Old Town in Alexandria. Very pleasant.

    My attempt to recreate Rocky by running up the steps of the Washington Masonic Memorial, less pleasant
    You were heckled by outraged Masons?
    You know that summer humidity, I dont think any outraged masons would have got within a bargepole length of me without dropping from the stink.
    correction - . . . would have GOTTEN within a bargepole . . .
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,323
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Yokes said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Yokes said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    Nothing in Washington DC is small. Buildings as rule are NOT tall (limit being tipy-top of US Capitol) but they are massive. Ditto monuments, very monumental.

    Proto-brutalist style from post-Civil War forward to today.

    Much of it best viewed, like Yokes just said, by moonlight. Or at least with a view of the city reflected in the limpid waters of the Potomoc.

    By the way, I quite like Foggy Bottom. Not the State Department, or even the hood around it. The name!
    I did once watch the 4th July fireworks from the bank of the Potomac at the bottom of Old Town in Alexandria. Very pleasant.

    My attempt to recreate Rocky by running up the steps of the Washington Masonic Memorial, less pleasant
    You were heckled by outraged Masons?
    You know that summer humidity, I dont think any outraged masons would have got within a bargepole length of me without dropping from the stink.
    correction - . . . would have GOTTEN within a bargepole . . .
    Whos Gotten ? Is he a character from Lord of the Rings?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,527
    Leon said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    The architecture. It’s like Buenos Aires redesigned by Franco with endless money. It’s quasi Fascist. An attempt to project power by sheer size and scale but actually expresses the insecurity of a needy nation. How many columns do you really require?

    Also why is everything this weird sludgy grey-brown colour, like waste water?

    And yet: the museums. You absolutely have to come here for the museums. Unbelievably good
    Re: the museums, you've barely scratched the surface.
    I’m staying an extra day for them alone. Not staying for yet another neo classical splodge of shite or pomo-by-Ceaucescu like THIS


    "Washington is a city of Northern charm and Southern efficiency." - John F. Kennedy
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited June 2023
    "My guess is that the elections will all be held on the same day in July."

    Senior Tories may want to hold Selby first, and maybe they will get away with it given that the whole process starts with the Tory chief whip:

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/by-elections/

    "The Chief Whip of the political party whose MP held the vacant seat starts the process of a by-election."

    Who moves the writ for a by-election when it's an independent MP's seat that has become vacant? Or for that matter when it's a party's sole MP.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,527
    Westie said:

    "My guess is that the elections will all be held on the same day in July."

    Senior Tories may want to hold Selby first, and maybe they will get away with it given that the whole process starts with the Tory chief whip:

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/by-elections/

    All the more reason, for PBers, psephologists and other putrid pundits, to rally 'round Lord Dingleberry of Crackpot!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,566
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Leon said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    The architecture. It’s like Buenos Aires redesigned by Franco with endless money. It’s quasi Fascist. An attempt to project power by sheer size and scale but actually expresses the insecurity of a needy nation. How many columns do you really require?

    Also why is everything this weird sludgy grey-brown colour, like waste water?

    And yet: the museums. You absolutely have to come here for the museums. Unbelievably good
    Re: the museums, you've barely scratched the surface.
    I’m staying an extra day for them alone. Not staying for yet another neo classical splodge of shite or pomo-by-Ceaucescu like THIS


    "Washington is a city of Northern charm and Southern efficiency." - John F. Kennedy
    There used to be an interesting Youtube video of Christopher Hitchens pointing out various Washington landmarks from the window of his flat in "our nation's capital". Unfortunately, either my Youtube searches suck or it has been removed.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,224
    edited June 2023
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Westie said:

    "My guess is that the elections will all be held on the same day in July."

    Senior Tories may want to hold Selby first, and maybe they will get away with it given that the whole process starts with the Tory chief whip:

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/by-elections/

    All the more reason, for PBers, psephologists and other putrid pundits, to rally 'round Lord Dingleberry of Crackpot!
    I may be wrong, but don't you have to renounce your title to be elected to the Commons your Lordship?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Leon said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    The architecture. It’s like Buenos Aires redesigned by Franco with endless money. It’s quasi Fascist. An attempt to project power by sheer size and scale but actually expresses the insecurity of a needy nation. How many columns do you really require?

    Also why is everything this weird sludgy grey-brown colour, like waste water?

    And yet: the museums. You absolutely have to come here for the museums. Unbelievably good
    Re: the museums, you've barely scratched the surface.
    I’m staying an extra day for them alone. Not staying for yet another neo classical splodge of shite or pomo-by-Ceaucescu like THIS


    "Washington is a city of Northern charm and Southern efficiency." - John F. Kennedy
    That’s a cracking line
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,780
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Westie said:

    "My guess is that the elections will all be held on the same day in July."

    Senior Tories may want to hold Selby first, and maybe they will get away with it given that the whole process starts with the Tory chief whip:

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/by-elections/

    All the more reason, for PBers, psephologists and other putrid pundits, to rally 'round Lord Dingleberry of Crackpot!
    I may be wrong, but don't you have to renounce your title to be elected to the Commoms your Lordship?
    Not if it’s hereditary.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    So Washington is a pompous, dull and quite ugly city with some of the very greatest museums on the planet

    A challenging place for someone already bipolar

    How is it pompous? (Was thinking of visiting in the next 12 months).
    Definitely come if you can. Just to see the Capitol, the White House, the war memorials and presidential stuff. Don’t expect European beauty and grace. It ain’t that. It’s boastful, overdone and monotonous. But it is America’s capital and for that alone it needs to be seen

    And give yourself at least two full days for the world class museums. As I might have mentioned 🥂🥂
    AND try to avoid visiting DC in the summertime! Unless of course hot AND humid is your thing.

    ADDENDUM - BTW, Leon, how are you liking the Metro? Certainly convenient from the Mall to Alexandria.

    Speaking of transportation, back in the day, DC had the best taxi cab service I personally ever saw - and I used to DRIVE a cab.

    They had a great grid system, which worked well for riders.

    AND the cab drivers (virtually all Black when I rode with them) were some of the nicest guys imaginable. Really.

    Still remember time, more than half-century ago, when we were on family vacation to Washington, and my Dad left his camera in a taxi. That driver drove around for blocks until he found us, just so he could return it.

    Native politeness AND professional pride.
    I decided Fuck it. I’m staying in a 5 star in the centre of town. About 3 blocks from the White House

    I remembered that driving anywhere in America is easy compared to Eurasia and if I can safely drive right across Yerevan Armenia at rush hour (which I have done) I can probably cope with DC. So far so good

    I might stay tomorrow night in Alexandria on my
    way out of D.C.

    This has been - up to now - an amazing trip. Full of interest. America has problems but it is never boring

    And I am now drinking an ice cold Vasen Lager in a downtown bar and it tastes like nectar
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784
    edited June 2023
    Westie said:

    "My guess is that the elections will all be held on the same day in July."

    Senior Tories may want to hold Selby first, and maybe they will get away with it given that the whole process starts with the Tory chief whip:

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/by-elections/

    "The Chief Whip of the political party whose MP held the vacant seat starts the process of a by-election."

    Who moves the writ for a by-election when it's an independent MP's seat that has become vacant? Or for that matter when it's a party's sole MP.

    The government.

    For a start it seems the formal rule is that the House may order the speaker to issue a writ via a motion made by 'any member'. Said motion could be debated. Being moved by the whip of the party which last held the seat is simply a convention, and that convention apparently has the government move it if no other member of a party is in the House to move it.

    If no other member of the party whose seat has been vacated has been elected, or has taken their seat, the Government moves the writ

    I love the Erskine May notes there was a recommendaiton on when a motion for a writ should be moved in 1973, and that this has not been implemented - given how much pruning occurs between editions of EK, else it would be far too long, that says to me clerks and Speakers are trying to subtly remind people it would be a good idea.

    https://erskinemay.parliament.uk/section/4915/vacancies-of-seats-during-a-session?highlight=writ

    EK isn't as fun now you can search it online instead of having to have a hard copy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784
    edited June 2023
    RobD said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Westie said:

    "My guess is that the elections will all be held on the same day in July."

    Senior Tories may want to hold Selby first, and maybe they will get away with it given that the whole process starts with the Tory chief whip:

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/by-elections/

    All the more reason, for PBers, psephologists and other putrid pundits, to rally 'round Lord Dingleberry of Crackpot!
    I may be wrong, but don't you have to renounce your title to be elected to the Commoms your Lordship?
    Not if it’s hereditary.
    Specifically a herditary which is not one of those which retains a seat in the Lords.

    Hence Viscount Thurso - Member House of Lords 1995-1999, Member House of Commons 2001-2015, Member House of Lords 2016.

    There have been a handful of others.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,480
    Another (ex) Trump lawyer saying he’s bang to rights.

    https://twitter.com/rgoodlaw/status/1667980805551927296
    Tim Parlatore interview w/ @jaketapper:

    - says "absolutely right" storage was "not secure"
    - admits 2 Chinese national intruders at MAL
    - admits Indictment strong
    - admits allegations really serious
    - says kept in dark on moving boxes to avoid searches…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Leon said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Leon said:

    We went from the first manned powered heavier than air flight - for about 1 minute a few feet above sand dunes - to putting a man on the MOON (and returning him) in 66 years

    That is mind blowing

    What have we done with the 54 years since Apollo 11?

    I guess if we achieve AI then we can say Yeah we did it again

    We've managed to get you from front door to some freebie champagne lounge at Heathrow in around 30 minutes (this bit may be made up) so there is that.
    “Some freebie champagne lounge”????

    It was THE CONCORDE ROOM

    Otherwise yes. I see your point. All is not lost
    Yeah but no but yeah but no you didn't actually fly on Concorde did you?

    All mouth and no trousers... ;)
    I have actually flown on Concorde. To Barbados and back. The inaugural flight, in fact. It was a press freebie
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784
    Nigelb said:

    Another (ex) Trump lawyer saying he’s bang to rights.

    https://twitter.com/rgoodlaw/status/1667980805551927296
    Tim Parlatore interview w/ @jaketapper:

    - says "absolutely right" storage was "not secure"
    - admits 2 Chinese national intruders at MAL
    - admits Indictment strong
    - admits allegations really serious
    - says kept in dark on moving boxes to avoid searches…

    We all know the GOP base don't care (or welcome it as a sign the deep state is after him), and nor do most representatives (maybe a handful in the Senate or Governors), but I do wonder about his game plan.

    Obviously he will seek to delay it and swamp it with legal issues - it is opening in front of a judge who has tried to do him favours in the past, and got slapped down by the appeals court - but on its face it appears the facts and law are relatively straightforward, so could only be held up so much.

    Now, he will say he will run even if sent to prison (I don't think it works timeline wise to be before the election, given when a trial might start, finish, and appeals, even if he were convicted, when only a couple of obdurate jurors might prevent that), but that's not much of a plan. Repeating it is a hoax and double standard will play ell with the party and bring in money, but it's a lot to hinge a campaign on.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,122
    edited June 2023
    The new electronic information boards at Euston station broke down this evening. Just got home 3 hours later than expected, due to that and also flooding in various places.
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    Nigelb said:

    Another (ex) Trump lawyer saying he’s bang to rights.

    https://twitter.com/rgoodlaw/status/1667980805551927296
    Tim Parlatore interview w/ @jaketapper:

    - says "absolutely right" storage was "not secure"
    - admits 2 Chinese national intruders at MAL
    - admits Indictment strong
    - admits allegations really serious
    - says kept in dark on moving boxes to avoid searches…

    Love the bit about Chinese intruders.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/25/politics/mar-a-lago-intruder-chinese-national-sentenced/index.html

    He's been selling secrets, hasn't he?

    Mary Trump nails it: "I'm a Trump... Everything's about money in this family."

    Start listening at 6:10 for context:

    https://www.facebook.com/GoodMorningAmerica/videos/mary-trump-describes-family-as-malignantly-dysfunctional/2658708070897460/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784
    Westie said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another (ex) Trump lawyer saying he’s bang to rights.

    https://twitter.com/rgoodlaw/status/1667980805551927296
    Tim Parlatore interview w/ @jaketapper:

    - says "absolutely right" storage was "not secure"
    - admits 2 Chinese national intruders at MAL
    - admits Indictment strong
    - admits allegations really serious
    - says kept in dark on moving boxes to avoid searches…

    Love the bit about Chinese intruders.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/25/politics/mar-a-lago-intruder-chinese-national-sentenced/index.html

    He's been selling secrets, hasn't he?

    Mary Trump nails it: "I'm a Trump... Everything's about money in this family."

    Start listening at 6:10 for context:

    https://www.facebook.com/GoodMorningAmerica/videos/mary-trump-describes-family-as-malignantly-dysfunctional/2658708070897460/
    This list is indivative of how Trump treats people, yet most of those who he lambasts in such terms are almost certainly still planning to vote for him, like Barr.

    List of things Trump has said about his own Cabinet officials:

    AUG 2015: “I am going to surround myself with only the best and most serious people. Top of the line professionals.”

    Gutless pig
    Dumb as a rock
    No temperament
    Milk toast
    He got eaten alive
    Couldn’t handle the pressure
    Highly unstable nutjob
    A fool
    Abused staff
    Weak and totally ineffective
    A lightweight
    A disgrace
    Dumb southerner
    Mentally retarded
    Disgraceful
    Scared stiff
    An idiot
    Mr. Magoo
    Dumped like a dog
    Overrated
    No energy
    Slow and boring
    Disappointing
    Fucked it all up
    Washed up
    Disgruntled boring old fool
    Never had a clue
    A dope
    Liar
    Too short
    Didn’t look the part
    Not tough enough
    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1667987347114213376?cxt=HHwWhoC-1e3Q76UuAAAA
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784
    Westie said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another (ex) Trump lawyer saying he’s bang to rights.

    https://twitter.com/rgoodlaw/status/1667980805551927296
    Tim Parlatore interview w/ @jaketapper:

    - says "absolutely right" storage was "not secure"
    - admits 2 Chinese national intruders at MAL
    - admits Indictment strong
    - admits allegations really serious
    - says kept in dark on moving boxes to avoid searches…

    Love the bit about Chinese intruders.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/25/politics/mar-a-lago-intruder-chinese-national-sentenced/index.html

    He's been selling secrets, hasn't he?

    Mary Trump nails it: "I'm a Trump... Everything's about money in this family."

    Start listening at 6:10 for context:

    https://www.facebook.com/GoodMorningAmerica/videos/mary-trump-describes-family-as-malignantly-dysfunctional/2658708070897460/
    The very interesting thing in all this will be what Trump's actual legal defences will be, since what he says out of court seems very likely to go further than what even his lawyers will put their names to (unless he has the same ones as Lake).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,122
    Leon said:

    We went from the first manned powered heavier than air flight - for about 1 minute a few feet above sand dunes - to putting a man on the MOON (and returning him) in 66 years

    That is mind blowing

    What have we done with the 54 years since Apollo 11?

    I guess if we achieve AI then we can say Yeah we did it again

    We became lazy and complacent.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,780
    Andy_JS said:

    The new electronic information boards at Euston station broke down this evening. Just got home 3 hours later than expected, due to that and also flooding in various places.

    If only you’d had a smartphone to check the status of your train. ;)
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another (ex) Trump lawyer saying he’s bang to rights.

    https://twitter.com/rgoodlaw/status/1667980805551927296
    Tim Parlatore interview w/ @jaketapper:

    - says "absolutely right" storage was "not secure"
    - admits 2 Chinese national intruders at MAL
    - admits Indictment strong
    - admits allegations really serious
    - says kept in dark on moving boxes to avoid searches…

    We all know the GOP base don't care (or welcome it as a sign the deep state is after him), and nor do most representatives (maybe a handful in the Senate or Governors), but I do wonder about his game plan.

    Obviously he will seek to delay it and swamp it with legal issues - it is opening in front of a judge who has tried to do him favours in the past, and got slapped down by the appeals court - but on its face it appears the facts and law are relatively straightforward, so could only be held up so much.

    Now, he will say he will run even if sent to prison (I don't think it works timeline wise to be before the election, given when a trial might start, finish, and appeals, even if he were convicted, when only a couple of obdurate jurors might prevent that), but that's not much of a plan. Repeating it is a hoax and double standard will play ell with the party and bring in money, but it's a lot to hinge a campaign on.
    A key moment will be when (if) Donald Trump is cross-examined publicly under oath. He won't get away with calling the prosecuting attorney a biased Democrat, Johnny Poohead, etc. He'll crack mentally. Cf. James Forrestal and "the Russians are coming". It'll be much loonier than that, though.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,770
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The new electronic information boards at Euston station broke down this evening. Just got home 3 hours later than expected, due to that and also flooding in various places.

    If only you’d had a smartphone to check the status of your train. ;)
    www.realtimetrains.co.uk . Euston Station has wi-fi
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Selebian said:


    Johnson still popular(ish) though. If the by elections are sold as Johnson versus Sunak then a Tory voter strike, in solidarity with Johnson, is possible.

    Thread:

    Johnson's appeal was limited in 2019, he was toxic in 2022, and he is still toxic now. Some graphs to illustrate each point follow...

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1667956562911019008?s=20
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mail continuing its “Boris is finished” line:

    Backlash to Boris Johnson's shock departure is fading, Rishi Sunak is told as whips say the threat of more resignations is receding amid calls for the Conservatives to unite

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12183755/Backlash-Boris-Johnsons-shock-departure-fading-Rishi-Sunak-told.html

    The quango which vets appointments to the House of Lords last night confirmed it had blocked half of Boris Johnson’s proposed peerages.

    In a rare public intervention, the House of Lords Appointments Commission (Holac) said that eight nominations ‘were not supported by the commission’.

    The watchdog said it had ‘received and processed’ all nominations made by the former prime minister in his resignation honours list.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12183217/Lords-committee-reveals-blocked-EIGHT-peerages-nominated-Boris-Johnson.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784
    CarlottaVance said:

    Selebian said:


    Johnson still popular(ish) though. If the by elections are sold as Johnson versus Sunak then a Tory voter strike, in solidarity with Johnson, is possible.

    Thread:

    Johnson's appeal was limited in 2019, he was toxic in 2022, and he is still toxic now. Some graphs to illustrate each point follow...

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1667956562911019008?s=20
    The basic point is that the Rees-Moggs of the world, and there are many of them in the Tory party, think that because Boris won in 2019 he would definitely win again or lose less badly, without consideration of how the situation is very different. He did win very well in 2019, despite the negatives, and even with Corbyn factor etc he gets credit for that. But 2023 Boris is not 2019 Boris, and the opposition is different too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,480
    edited June 2023
    kle4 said:

    Westie said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another (ex) Trump lawyer saying he’s bang to rights.

    https://twitter.com/rgoodlaw/status/1667980805551927296
    Tim Parlatore interview w/ @jaketapper:

    - says "absolutely right" storage was "not secure"
    - admits 2 Chinese national intruders at MAL
    - admits Indictment strong
    - admits allegations really serious
    - says kept in dark on moving boxes to avoid searches…

    Love the bit about Chinese intruders.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/25/politics/mar-a-lago-intruder-chinese-national-sentenced/index.html

    He's been selling secrets, hasn't he?

    Mary Trump nails it: "I'm a Trump... Everything's about money in this family."

    Start listening at 6:10 for context:

    https://www.facebook.com/GoodMorningAmerica/videos/mary-trump-describes-family-as-malignantly-dysfunctional/2658708070897460/
    This list is indivative of how Trump treats people, yet most of those who he lambasts in such terms are almost certainly still planning to vote for him, like Barr.

    List of things Trump has said about his own Cabinet officials:

    AUG 2015: “I am going to surround myself with only the best and most serious people. Top of the line professionals.”

    Gutless pig
    Dumb as a rock
    No temperament
    Milk toast
    He got eaten alive
    Couldn’t handle the pressure
    Highly unstable nutjob
    A fool
    Abused staff
    Weak and totally ineffective
    A lightweight
    A disgrace
    Dumb southerner
    Mentally retarded
    Disgraceful
    Scared stiff
    An idiot
    Mr. Magoo
    Dumped like a dog
    Overrated
    No energy
    Slow and boring
    Disappointing
    Fucked it all up
    Washed up
    Disgruntled boring old fool
    Never had a clue
    A dope
    Liar
    Too short
    Didn’t look the part
    Not tough enough
    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1667987347114213376?cxt=HHwWhoC-1e3Q76UuAAAA
    The VP his supporters wanted to string up is still shilling in his behalf even as he runs against him.
    Here he is pretending not to know what a Grand Jury is.

    Former Vice President Mike Pence called on Attorney General Merrick Garland to publicly justify the federal indictment against former President Donald Trump.
    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1667709755274428419
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,067
    CarlottaVance said:

    Selebian said:


    Johnson still popular(ish) though. If the by elections are sold as Johnson versus Sunak then a Tory voter strike, in solidarity with Johnson, is possible.

    Thread:

    Johnson's appeal was limited in 2019, he was toxic in 2022, and he is still toxic now. Some graphs to illustrate each point follow...

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1667956562911019008?s=20
    The odd thing about Boris is how marmitey he is, and how there are only two stable opinions; love him or hate him. The transition between the two is really sharp and sudden, with very little intermediate creeping doubt.

    Go back a couple of years, and there were enough Boris fans to form a decent, election winning huddle. Being up against Evil Jez helped, but Boris had a sufficient fan club, even if they were deluded stooges.

    Because of the two stable opinions thing, his remaining supporters (and they do exist) feel much the same way about him now as then. All that has happened is that a lot of former Boris Backers have jumped ship.

    Now the Boris group is small and shrinking, but it's probably still a decent chunk of the Conservative electorate- at least as long as the Mail/Telegraph keep the faith. Not enough for Boris to win (please, not enough for Boris to win) but enough to increase the pain of a Conservative defeat.

    So. Is Boris selfish and petulant enough to go out of his way to hurt the prospects of the Conservative Party in 2024, and potentially for a decade after that? My thought is "hell yes, of course he is".
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    We went from the first manned powered heavier than air flight - for about 1 minute a few feet above sand dunes - to putting a man on the MOON (and returning him) in 66 years

    That is mind blowing

    What have we done with the 54 years since Apollo 11?

    I guess if we achieve AI then we can say Yeah we did it again

    We became lazy and complacent.
    We gave everyone the option of a vastly powerful and globally networked computer in their pocket We also provided far more global collective security against everything from extreme poverty to genocide.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,501
    edited June 2023
    Flight to Crete (and numerous other flights from Gatwick) cancelled "due to the hot weather". It was a bit hot (31) but still?? Trains back home disrupted by the hot weather - rails buckling, signals failing.

    I wonder if we're so used to a temperate climate that the infrastructure isn't really up to it?

    Trying again tomorrow...
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487
    NickPalmer said:

    Flight to Crete (and numerous other flights from Gatwick) cancelled "due to the hot weather". It was a bit hot (31) but still?? Trains back home disrupted by the hot weather - rails buckling, signals failing.

    I wonder if we're so used to a temperate climate that the infrastructure isn't really up to it?

    Trying again tomorrow...

    Maybe they should ask the good folk of Crete how to deal with hot weather...
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487
    Stuartinromford said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Selebian said:


    Johnson still popular(ish) though. If the by elections are sold as Johnson versus Sunak then a Tory voter strike, in solidarity with Johnson, is possible.

    Thread:

    Johnson's appeal was limited in 2019, he was toxic in 2022, and he is still toxic now. Some graphs to illustrate each point follow...

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1667956562911019008?s=20
    The odd thing about Boris is how marmitey he is, and how there are only two stable opinions; love him or hate him. The transition between the two is really sharp and sudden, with very little intermediate creeping doubt.

    Go back a couple of years, and there were enough Boris fans to form a decent, election winning huddle. Being up against Evil Jez helped, but Boris had a sufficient fan club, even if they were deluded stooges.

    Because of the two stable opinions thing, his remaining supporters (and they do exist) feel much the same way about him now as then. All that has happened is that a lot of former Boris Backers have jumped ship.

    Now the Boris group is small and shrinking, but it's probably still a decent chunk of the Conservative electorate- at least as long as the Mail/Telegraph keep the faith. Not enough for Boris to win (please, not enough for Boris to win) but enough to increase the pain of a Conservative defeat.

    So. Is Boris selfish and petulant enough to go out of his way to hurt the prospects of the Conservative Party in 2024, and potentially for a decade after that? My thought is "hell yes, of course he is".
    My remainer mother voted for Boris, to Get Brexit (over and) Done (with) - even though she was a remainer, and no tory.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Grauniad only paper to lead on Johnson - most of rest are on Sturgeon:






    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1668002084636045313?s=20
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,122
    Shocking.

    "Teenagers would give up the right to vote to keep social media, survey reveals"

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/teenagers-right-vote-keep-social-media-survey-reveals
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,251
    edited June 2023
    I'm sure this will have been touched on, but as I missed it I'll repost a couple of things showing how proportional swing is a polling hot topic.

    (a) why current MRPs don't pass the sniff test:

    https://kellnerpolitics.com/2023/05/24/how-grumblers-and-defectors-have-laid-a-trap-for-our-pollsters/

    (b) picking up a hint of proportional swing in the locals, and claiming unusualness.

    https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1665752008685506560?t=E_TX9eyrE8mFvXpDtVyQQA&s=19


    Own take on reading this. Proportional swing could operate against the Tories to some extent at the next election, increasing seat losses a bit, but won't be huge and UNS (plus tactical selection of where to swing) will be the main factor.

    Kellner reckoned there was a 0.04% proportional swing against Labour in 2019 for every % of prior vote share on top of UNS, I suspect the Tories could suffer a higher proportional swing next time per % of vote share.

    I like the explanation suggested that o a first approximation UNS is caused by swing voters swinging which they do to a similar degree in all constituencies, whilst any additional proportional swing is caused by loyalist desertion which will affect areas with more loyalists.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,527
    NickPalmer said:

    Flight to Crete (and numerous other flights from Gatwick) cancelled "due to the hot weather". It was a bit hot (31) but still?? Trains back home disrupted by the hot weather - rails buckling, signals failing.

    I wonder if we're so used to a temperate climate that the infrastructure isn't really up to it?

    Trying again tomorrow...

    Nick, since your going (someday) to Crete, for reading matter suggest:

    Freedom and Death (aka Captain Michaelis) by Nikos Kazantzakis

    About the 1907 revolt against the Turks. Interesting, one of the best - in more ways than one - character is . . . a Turk.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,122
    NickPalmer said:

    Flight to Crete (and numerous other flights from Gatwick) cancelled "due to the hot weather". It was a bit hot (31) but still?? Trains back home disrupted by the hot weather - rails buckling, signals failing.

    I wonder if we're so used to a temperate climate that the infrastructure isn't really up to it?

    Trying again tomorrow...

    My train was cancelled due to flooding, the first rain we've had for ages.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,527
    Andy_JS said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Flight to Crete (and numerous other flights from Gatwick) cancelled "due to the hot weather". It was a bit hot (31) but still?? Trains back home disrupted by the hot weather - rails buckling, signals failing.

    I wonder if we're so used to a temperate climate that the infrastructure isn't really up to it?

    Trying again tomorrow...

    My train was cancelled due to flooding, the first rain we've had for ages.
    Sorry to hear that. However, also have an apt book suggestion for you too:

    The Johnstown Flood by David McCollough

    Believe it was the first of his many excellent books dealing with various aspects of American history.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Stuartinromford said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Selebian said:


    Johnson still popular(ish) though. If the by elections are sold as Johnson versus Sunak then a Tory voter strike, in solidarity with Johnson, is possible.

    Thread:

    Johnson's appeal was limited in 2019, he was toxic in 2022, and he is still toxic now. Some graphs to illustrate each point follow...

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1667956562911019008?s=20
    at least as long as the Mail/Telegraph keep the faith.
    Going by their front pages both have lapsed. The caravan has moved on…..

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,816
    Boris Johnson was the right man for 2019.

    He was not obviously a terrorist sympathiser who hung out with antisemites. He promised to break the Brexit deadlock. And - although we didn't know it at the time - his support for Ukraine would be absolutely crucial in helping them resist the Russian invasion in 2022.

    But his personal failings were always likely to pose... problems... Like Trump, he seems to believe the rules don't apply to him. (Which is a particular issue if you are insisting everyone else follows draconian rules you introduced.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,480
    The Russians blew up another dam , smaller than the one at Nova Kakhovka. This time on the Mokry Yaly River in Donetsk Oblast, causing flooding on both banks of the river. No details about consequences for the civilians yet, but definitely this is 🇷🇺 tactics to slow down 🇺🇦 counteroffensive.
    https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1667936491752833027
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,480
    rcs1000 said:

    Boris Johnson was the right man for 2019.

    Least wrong isn’t quite the same thing as right,
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,480
    I’m not sure what point Trump thinks he was making here ?

    'Those tapes are my tapes!' Trump enraged by Jack Smith's evidence against him
    https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-tapes/
    Former President Donald Trump on Sunday confirmed the existence of audio recordings that could be used as evidence against him in a case about the mishandling of classified documents.

    During an interview on Sunday with host Roger Stone, Trump responded to reports indicating he admitted he did not declassify some documents before leaving office with them. Those recordings are reportedly in the hands of special counsel Jack Smith.

    "By the way, the tapes that you read about, those tapes are my tapes," Trump growled. "I gave them very willingly, the tapes."

    Trump complained that President Joe Biden "probably doesn't have tapes" incriminating himself.

    "I gave them the tapes!" he exclaimed before threatening to release tapes of the FBI searching Mar-a-Lago.

    "I have tapes of the FBI during the raid. I didn't put them out because I was asked not to by them," he ranted. "But I have tapes of the raid by FBI. You want to see some tapes? Those are tapes."
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,160
    Lib Dem researchers are currently trying to find developments in Mid Beds they can then oppose as part of the campaign.

    It’s going to be another NIMBY by election campaign from them.

    https://twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/1667222666808311821?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
This discussion has been closed.