Deflating Rishi Sunak – politicalbetting.com

System · June 2023

Deflating Rishi Sunak – politicalbetting.com

When Rishi Sunak says he aims to halve inflation, British voters think he aims to get… (7 June)Prices to decrease 47%Prices to increase more slowly 42%Don't know 11% pic.twitter.com/0llokiJO2Q

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FrequentLurker · June 2023

This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...

...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience

Nigelb · June 2023

FrequentLurker said:
This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...

...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience

(FPT) On that score.
RIP Ted Kaczynski, inspiration for the most understated footnote ever
https://twitter.com/balumcarnes/status/1667594570501062656

felix · June 2023

First new poll from Sigma dos in Sp. GE sees the lead for PP narrow slightly with PSOE gain support from the extreme left wing groups. Today's poll still leaves the centre right well ahead but of course it could be a trend. More polls needed.

Nigelb · June 2023

"A recovering economy might underpin a polling boost for the Tories between now and election day .."

Unless their wages are rising faster than prices, they don't give a crap about a 'recovering economy'.

Now it's possible people will be better off in real terms by polling day, but it's a long way from certain.

CarlottaVance · June 2023

To be honest I'm pleasantly surprised at the level of understanding - I'd have thought it might have been worse....

FPT:

"Boris Quits" is well down the Mail's homepage - below the Amazon children survival story (lead), lady anglers quitting the team because of inclusion of a transwoman, Harry & Meghan, Dancing on Ice/Philip Schofield, UFOs, Channel4 Bloodbath, Coercive husband, Deportation madness (x2), More Schofield, Britney Spears, Football, WAGS, Assisted Suicide, Holly Willoughby dresses, Alien Invasion, Philip Schofield again, Marcus Rashford split, until finally:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12181049/The-poisonous-inside-story-led-Johnson-bombshell-resignation.html

Unlike the Sun, which is running "Boris isn't finished" stories.....looks like the Mail thinks he is.....

Nigelb · June 2023

FrequentLurker said:
This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...

...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience

It does explain quite a lot about pay bargaining, though. Employers tend to have a slightly better grasp of the numbers - but they can take advantage of that for only do long.

Even those who don't understand how inflation works understand when they can't buy things they used to be able to.

Heathener · June 2023

CarlottaVance said:

"Boris Quits" is well down the Mail's homepage -

Unlike the Sun, which is running "Boris isn't finished" stories.....looks like the Mail thinks he is.....

Not on their hard copy version it isn't.

Heathener · June 2023

Nigelb said:

FrequentLurker said:
This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...

...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience

Even those who don't understand how inflation works understand when they can't buy things they used to be able to.

And that's the point. All of us who live on a tight budget and do the supermarket shopping know that inflation is rampant and we're getting squeezed.

And now mortgage deals are getting hit.

Meanwhile the tories are in open civil war.

The idea of swingback is a total joke. If there's a swing in the polls it will come from a week or so's time ... to Labour.

First principle of politics: be united.

MarqueeMark · June 2023

The Tories are in open civil war - in Boris's mind.

For months now, the Tories have been in "Bye bye Boris....anyway....." mode.

Westie · June 2023

MarqueeMark said:
The Tories are in open civil war - in Boris's mind.

For months now, the Tories have been in "Bye bye Boris....anyway....." mode.

There's a big element of their having to print some old sh*t in the newspapers, because otherwise they'd lose the advertising money and they might even have to address important stuff. Similarly they need to have policies on some old crap. So they talk about Boris Johnson and at the same time about men who dress up as, and want to "become", women, while almost the entire population is hooked on mobile phone use with their lives lived in ever increasing stupidity going down the plughole, and personal debt is squeezing the life and hope and dignity out of most of the population. It's bread and circuses with decreasing availability of bread. Johnson is almost a nobody now. It's all pap.

IanB2 · June 2023

The slightly belated and rarely-sighted Saturday Rawnsley:

The man [Johnson] is a coward. Whenever faced with the consequences of his actions, he ducks. Whenever confronted with a choice that requires some courage, he swerves. Whenever asked to make good on a promise, he betrays. Whenever the choice is fight or flight, he flees.

In the richly storied history of British politics, there has been no ascent, peak, decline and fall quite like it. Some people have a go at trying to compare him with previous tenants of Number 10, but that is a futile quest. We have never seen anyone quite like him in Downing Street before and, if we are a lucky country, we will never do so again. Being Boris Johnson, he is exiting the stage without a shred of humility, a scintilla of remorse or a sliver of recognition that he brought this on himself.

He could have sought to have the committee’s verdict – which I am told is coruscating – overturned by the Commons. Someone who authentically believed himself to have suffered a miscarriage of justice might have attempted that. That he has chosen not to appeal to the Commons is an implied acknowledgment of how low his standing has sunk even among the Conservative MPs who put him in Number 10.

There is no martyr to see here. There is a man who serially debased the high office that he was never fit to hold. There is a man who turned government into a carnival of clowning, chaos and chicanery. There is a man who presided over an appalling regime of lockdown-busting and law-breaking in Downing Street which triggered entirely justified public outrage and was poison for the people’s faith in government.

Some of the officials who saw him at close quarters at Number 10 came away from the experience wondering whether he actually understood the difference between right and wrong and whether he ever really grasped the distinction between the truth and lies. Unless he has entirely succumbed to delusions, there must surely be a portion of his brain which knows that the person responsible for the destruction of his political career stares back him at him whenever he looks in a mirror. Yet he can never acknowledge, at least not in public, what is obvious even to some of those who were once counted among his most ardent supporters. It is the way of the coward to flinch from confronting the inescapable truth that the architect of Boris Johnson’s downfall is Boris Johnson.

Heathener · June 2023

For those of you wishfully dismissing this as over, it's worth reading this piece in the Sunday Telegraph, which has some useful inside snippets about what is going on.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/06/10/boris-johnson-allies-coordinated-attack-rishi-sunak/

This will of course rumble on because of the three (or more?) by-elections themselves, which will only add to the sense of disunity.

The Boris wing of the party. Or, rather, the wing of the party with whom Boris hitched a ride, are by no means finished. They are vociferous with powerful allies. And unfortunately for Rishi Sunak, they represent a part of the electorate that no other tory can reach - the kind who get in a lather about migrants, trans rights, and the bbc etc.

Meanwhile Nigel Farage, in full-on Trumpian mode, has declared that there's an establishment plot to reverse Brexit.

The tories are toast.

Big_G_NorthWales · June 2023

Heathener said:

Nigelb said:

FrequentLurker said:
This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...

...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience

Even those who don't understand how inflation works understand when they can't buy things they used to be able to.
And that's the point. All of us who live on a tight budget and do the supermarket shopping know that inflation is rampant and we're getting squeezed.

And now mortgage deals are getting hit.

Meanwhile the tories are in open civil war.

The idea of swingback is a total joke. If there's a swing in the polls it will come from a week or so's time ... to Labour.

First principle of politics: be united.

Good morning

It is hard to disagree with you and Starmer is on course for a majority government in October 24

We are witnessing a 'Corbyn style' civil war in the conservative party but at least the first element has happened, in so far as Johnson has walked off with his malign entitlement attacking each and everyone, but himself thereby creating many opponents from his own side

I understand the privileges committee are very angry at the manner of Johnson's resignation, and the language used, that when they meet tomorrow to authorise the release their report, they are also considering further sanctions on Johnson which is inevitable

Parliament is sovereign and Johnson's Trump like behaviour has no place in our Parliament whatsoever, and it is essential that this threat to Parliament's authority is extinguished

The conservative party is facing meltdown not least from the voting public and the only hope for them is the majority of their mps vocally and publicly support Sunak at this time

It will be very interesting to see where we are in 6 months time, but for now a civil war is taking place but we all want to see Johnson and his sycophants marginalised, as has happened with Corbyn in labour

Westie · June 2023

To be clear: contrary to headlines, Boris Johnson quitting as an MP has little effect on anything, the Tory party is not in civil war, his action is not a disaster for anyone, he's not about to stand in a by-election anywhere, and his action is unlikely to have an effect on voter intention polls. It will probably put the price of his memoirs up, though. He is unlikely to go on the speech circuit either, because he can't handle his drugs well enough. I blame David Cameron who let him attend cabinet while he was mayor of London, and also Teresa May who appointed him as foreign secretary.

Heathener · June 2023

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Nigelb said:

FrequentLurker said:
This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...

...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience

Even those who don't understand how inflation works understand when they can't buy things they used to be able to.
And that's the point. All of us who live on a tight budget and do the supermarket shopping know that inflation is rampant and we're getting squeezed.

And now mortgage deals are getting hit.

Meanwhile the tories are in open civil war.

The idea of swingback is a total joke. If there's a swing in the polls it will come from a week or so's time ... to Labour.

First principle of politics: be united.
Good morning

It is hard to disagree with you and Starmer is on course for a majority government in October 24

We are witnessing a 'Corbyn style' civil war in the conservative party but at least the first element has happened, in so far as Johnson has walked off with his malign entitlement attacking each and everyone, but himself thereby creating many opponents from his own side

I understand the privileges committee are very angry at the manner of Johnson's resignation, and the language used, that when they meet tomorrow to authorise the release their report, they are also considering further sanctions on Johnson which is inevitable

[...]

Good morning Big G. Great post. Apologies for snipping the end part (which is just as good) but I wanted to acknowledge your very good point about how the manner of Boris' departure has alienated not just the privileges committee but also many members in his party.

MikeL · June 2023

OPINIUM POLL OF 144 MARGINAL SEATS:

(Sample size 4,065, fieldwork 19-31 May)

Lab 39 (+7)
Con 32 (-12)

That's a slightly smaller swing that national polls are currently showing.

This would put Lab right on the boundary of getting a majority - it needs to gain 124 seats and this poll suggests it would gain 123-125 seats.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/10/labour-lead-tories-battleground-seats-poll-conservatives-election

Monksfield · June 2023

IanB2 said:
The slightly belated and rarely-sighted Saturday Rawnsley:

The man [Johnson] is a coward. Whenever faced with the consequences of his actions, he ducks. Whenever confronted with a choice that requires some courage, he swerves. Whenever asked to make good on a promise, he betrays. Whenever the choice is fight or flight, he flees.

In the richly storied history of British politics, there has been no ascent, peak, decline and fall quite like it. Some people have a go at trying to compare him with previous tenants of Number 10, but that is a futile quest. We have never seen anyone quite like him in Downing Street before and, if we are a lucky country, we will never do so again. Being Boris Johnson, he is exiting the stage without a shred of humility, a scintilla of remorse or a sliver of recognition that he brought this on himself.

He could have sought to have the committee’s verdict – which I am told is coruscating – overturned by the Commons. Someone who authentically believed himself to have suffered a miscarriage of justice might have attempted that. That he has chosen not to appeal to the Commons is an implied acknowledgment of how low his standing has sunk even among the Conservative MPs who put him in Number 10.

There is no martyr to see here. There is a man who serially debased the high office that he was never fit to hold. There is a man who turned government into a carnival of clowning, chaos and chicanery. There is a man who presided over an appalling regime of lockdown-busting and law-breaking in Downing Street which triggered entirely justified public outrage and was poison for the people’s faith in government.

Some of the officials who saw him at close quarters at Number 10 came away from the experience wondering whether he actually understood the difference between right and wrong and whether he ever really grasped the distinction between the truth and lies. Unless he has entirely succumbed to delusions, there must surely be a portion of his brain which knows that the person responsible for the destruction of his political career stares back him at him whenever he looks in a mirror. Yet he can never acknowledge, at least not in public, what is obvious even to some of those who were once counted among his most ardent supporters. It is the way of the coward to flinch from confronting the inescapable truth that the architect of Boris Johnson’s downfall is Boris Johnson.

Completely agree with the Rawnsley assessment. But few of these denizens of our third estate were willing to say this when Johnson was in power. Despite the very flaws that brought him down being in plain sight throughout.

Journalism needs to take a long hard look at itself in the mirror.

CarlottaVance · June 2023

The Green Party could lose their only seat in Parliament at the next general election, according to recent polling.

According to a poll for Best for Britain, Brighton Pavilion would elect a Labour MP for the first time since 2010 if an election was held tomorrow.

The poll put Labour support in the constituency at 32.7 per cent, up almost 10 per cent from their result in the last general election.

However, support for the Greens is forecast to crater; from 57.2 per cent at the 2019 election to just 28.4 per cent - a staggering 28.8 per cent drop.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23578348.greens-will-lose-brighton-seat-next-election-poll-claims/?ref=ebln&nid=944

CarlottaVance · June 2023

Heathener said:

CarlottaVance said:

"Boris Quits" is well down the Mail's homepage -

Unlike the Sun, which is running "Boris isn't finished" stories.....looks like the Mail thinks he is.....
Not on their hard copy version it isn't.

If the Mail thought it a significant story they would have kept it as their website lead and not let it drift well down “below the fold” - and be running op-Eds on how stupid the Tories are like the Sun.

ydoethur · June 2023

CarlottaVance said:
The Green Party could lose their only seat in Parliament at the next general election, according to recent polling.

According to a poll for Best for Britain, Brighton Pavilion would elect a Labour MP for the first time since 2010 if an election was held tomorrow.

The poll put Labour support in the constituency at 32.7 per cent, up almost 10 per cent from their result in the last general election.

However, support for the Greens is forecast to crater; from 57.2 per cent at the 2019 election to just 28.4 per cent - a staggering 28.8 per cent drop.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23578348.greens-will-lose-brighton-seat-next-election-poll-claims/?ref=ebln&nid=944

Interesting that poll still predicts no seats for the Lib Dems in an area where they used to be pretty strong.

MaxPB · June 2023

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2e0dcdaa-078c-11ee-9e46-1e1d57315b13?shareToken=8db11e4eda3926b479e0599867a1b766

The Times has done it again. Anyone on here who still denies the lab leak theory is spouting Chinese propaganda. COVID leaked from the Chinese lab and then China, with the help of useful idiots in the West, covered it up and called anyone who disagreed a racist.

Casino_Royale · June 2023

FrequentLurker said:
This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...

...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience

And Rishi wanted to do something about that and was pilloried for it.

ydoethur · June 2023

Casino_Royale said:

FrequentLurker said:
This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...

...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience
And Rishi wanted to do something about that and was pilloried for it.

Justly, as his own sums didn't in fact add up.

Chris · June 2023

To be fair, mainstream journalists sometimes have a problem making the distinction between falling inflation and falling prices.

Casino_Royale · June 2023

MaxPB said:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2e0dcdaa-078c-11ee-9e46-1e1d57315b13?shareToken=8db11e4eda3926b479e0599867a1b766

The Times has done it again. Anyone on here who still denies the lab leak theory is spouting Chinese propaganda. COVID leaked from the Chinese lab and then China, with the help of useful idiots in the West, covered it up and called anyone who disagreed a racist.

Bloody hell.

Peter_the_Punter · June 2023

IanB2 said:
The slightly belated and rarely-sighted Saturday Rawnsley:

The man [Johnson] is a coward. Whenever faced with the consequences of his actions, he ducks. Whenever confronted with a choice that requires some courage, he swerves. Whenever asked to make good on a promise, he betrays. Whenever the choice is fight or flight, he flees.

In the richly storied history of British politics, there has been no ascent, peak, decline and fall quite like it. Some people have a go at trying to compare him with previous tenants of Number 10, but that is a futile quest. We have never seen anyone quite like him in Downing Street before and, if we are a lucky country, we will never do so again. Being Boris Johnson, he is exiting the stage without a shred of humility, a scintilla of remorse or a sliver of recognition that he brought this on himself.

He could have sought to have the committee’s verdict – which I am told is coruscating – overturned by the Commons. Someone who authentically believed himself to have suffered a miscarriage of justice might have attempted that. That he has chosen not to appeal to the Commons is an implied acknowledgment of how low his standing has sunk even among the Conservative MPs who put him in Number 10.

There is no martyr to see here. There is a man who serially debased the high office that he was never fit to hold. There is a man who turned government into a carnival of clowning, chaos and chicanery. There is a man who presided over an appalling regime of lockdown-busting and law-breaking in Downing Street which triggered entirely justified public outrage and was poison for the people’s faith in government.

Some of the officials who saw him at close quarters at Number 10 came away from the experience wondering whether he actually understood the difference between right and wrong and whether he ever really grasped the distinction between the truth and lies. Unless he has entirely succumbed to delusions, there must surely be a portion of his brain which knows that the person responsible for the destruction of his political career stares back him at him whenever he looks in a mirror. Yet he can never acknowledge, at least not in public, what is obvious even to some of those who were once counted among his most ardent supporters. It is the way of the coward to flinch from confronting the inescapable truth that the architect of Boris Johnson’s downfall is Boris Johnson.

Hmmm....he doesn't like him then.

And on a happier subject, congratulations to Manchester City, a Team for all seasons.

OnlyLivingBoy · June 2023

IanB2 said:
The slightly belated and rarely-sighted Saturday Rawnsley:

The man [Johnson] is a coward. Whenever faced with the consequences of his actions, he ducks. Whenever confronted with a choice that requires some courage, he swerves. Whenever asked to make good on a promise, he betrays. Whenever the choice is fight or flight, he flees.

In the richly storied history of British politics, there has been no ascent, peak, decline and fall quite like it. Some people have a go at trying to compare him with previous tenants of Number 10, but that is a futile quest. We have never seen anyone quite like him in Downing Street before and, if we are a lucky country, we will never do so again. Being Boris Johnson, he is exiting the stage without a shred of humility, a scintilla of remorse or a sliver of recognition that he brought this on himself.

He could have sought to have the committee’s verdict – which I am told is coruscating – overturned by the Commons. Someone who authentically believed himself to have suffered a miscarriage of justice might have attempted that. That he has chosen not to appeal to the Commons is an implied acknowledgment of how low his standing has sunk even among the Conservative MPs who put him in Number 10.

There is no martyr to see here. There is a man who serially debased the high office that he was never fit to hold. There is a man who turned government into a carnival of clowning, chaos and chicanery. There is a man who presided over an appalling regime of lockdown-busting and law-breaking in Downing Street which triggered entirely justified public outrage and was poison for the people’s faith in government.

Some of the officials who saw him at close quarters at Number 10 came away from the experience wondering whether he actually understood the difference between right and wrong and whether he ever really grasped the distinction between the truth and lies. Unless he has entirely succumbed to delusions, there must surely be a portion of his brain which knows that the person responsible for the destruction of his political career stares back him at him whenever he looks in a mirror. Yet he can never acknowledge, at least not in public, what is obvious even to some of those who were once counted among his most ardent supporters. It is the way of the coward to flinch from confronting the inescapable truth that the architect of Boris Johnson’s downfall is Boris Johnson.

I wish he'd tell us what he really thinks.

IanB2 · June 2023

Westie said:
To be clear: contrary to headlines, Boris Johnson quitting as an MP has little effect on anything, the Tory party is not in civil war, his action is not a disaster for anyone, he's not about to stand in a by-election anywhere, and his action is unlikely to have an effect on voter intention polls. It will probably put the price of his memoirs up, though. He is unlikely to go on the speech circuit either, because he can't handle his drugs well enough. I blame David Cameron who let him attend cabinet while he was mayor of London, and also Teresa May who appointed him as foreign secretary.

May's move was genius, as it kept him out of the country and showed him up as unsuitable and unfit for high office, as she knew it would.

The fault is ours (well, yours...) for not taking notice.

IanB2 · June 2023

@RoryStewartUK: BREAKING: Boris Johnson is frustrated not to have been able to make his a horse a consul in his resignation honours @RestIsPolitics

ydoethur · June 2023

IanB2 said:
@RoryStewartUK: BREAKING: Boris Johnson is frustrated not to have been able to make his a horse a consul in his resignation honours @RestIsPolitics

Is he trying to Incit (at) us to mutiny?

SouthamObserver · June 2023

Johnson is gone and he is finished. There is no getting away from that. But he is not the real Tory problem. That is the overall rightward drift in the party itself and, crucially, in most of the Tory press. Until that is reversed and a far greater number of voters get the sense that the party lives in the same world as them and has the same priorities, it’s hard to see how the current situation can be pulled back to any significant degree.

rcs1000 · June 2023

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2e0dcdaa-078c-11ee-9e46-1e1d57315b13?shareToken=8db11e4eda3926b479e0599867a1b766

The Times has done it again. Anyone on here who still denies the lab leak theory is spouting Chinese propaganda. COVID leaked from the Chinese lab and then China, with the help of useful idiots in the West, covered it up and called anyone who disagreed a racist.
Bloody hell.

I'd like to see the underlying report, rather than the The Times's reportage, but this looks like the first genuinely new evidence in about two years.

rcs1000 · June 2023

ydoethur said:

CarlottaVance said:
The Green Party could lose their only seat in Parliament at the next general election, according to recent polling.

According to a poll for Best for Britain, Brighton Pavilion would elect a Labour MP for the first time since 2010 if an election was held tomorrow.

The poll put Labour support in the constituency at 32.7 per cent, up almost 10 per cent from their result in the last general election.

However, support for the Greens is forecast to crater; from 57.2 per cent at the 2019 election to just 28.4 per cent - a staggering 28.8 per cent drop.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23578348.greens-will-lose-brighton-seat-next-election-poll-claims/?ref=ebln&nid=944
Interesting that poll still predicts no seats for the Lib Dems in an area where they used to be pretty strong.

The LibDems could very easily have a pretty shitty 2024.

And, no, I don't mean they won't gain seats. I'm confident they'll be up on 2019. But it doesn't take much for dreams of 50 seats to turn into a mushy 18 or 19.

Taz · June 2023

SouthamObserver said:
Johnson is gone and he is finished. There is no getting away from that. But he is not the real Tory problem. That is the overall rightward drift in the party itself and, crucially, in most of the Tory press. Until that is reversed and a far greater number of voters get the sense that the party lives in the same world as them and has the same priorities, it’s hard to see how the current situation can be pulled back to any significant degree.

Emily Thornberry was the only politician, I thought, who hit the right note on the Johnson thing when she said we have to move on from this as people are concerned about the cost of living crisis and what is effecting their lives on a day to day basis. She’s right. I don’t think the Tories get it, a few do, but far too few.

Heathener · June 2023

SouthamObserver said:
Johnson is gone and he is finished. There is no getting away from that. But he is not the real Tory problem. That is the overall rightward drift in the party itself and, crucially, in most of the Tory press. Until that is reversed and a far greater number of voters get the sense that the party lives in the same world as them and has the same priorities, it’s hard to see how the current situation can be pulled back to any significant degree.

Spot on.

And, no, we will not move on from this yet. Not until we, the British people, have had our full say at the ballot box.

This clusterfuckshitshow does not preclude us ALSO including the cost of living crisis.

The Conservative brand is Ratnered.

tlg86 · June 2023

Taz said:

SouthamObserver said:
Johnson is gone and he is finished. There is no getting away from that. But he is not the real Tory problem. That is the overall rightward drift in the party itself and, crucially, in most of the Tory press. Until that is reversed and a far greater number of voters get the sense that the party lives in the same world as them and has the same priorities, it’s hard to see how the current situation can be pulled back to any significant degree.
Emily Thornberry was the only politician, I thought, who hit the right note on the Johnson thing when she said we have to move on from this as people are concerned about the cost of living crisis and what is effecting their lives on a day to day basis. She’s right. I don’t think the Tories get it, a few do, but far too few.

I don’t know about the Tory party, but the press, Sky news in particular, don’t want to move on from Johnson. He’s yesterday’s man, the sooner the press realise this the better.

Taz · June 2023

I see language is not inclusive now.

https://twitter.com/k_flynny369/status/1667483144872706049?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ

Taz · June 2023

Heathener said:
For those of you wishfully dismissing this as over, it's worth reading this piece in the Sunday Telegraph, which has some useful inside snippets about what is going on.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/06/10/boris-johnson-allies-coordinated-attack-rishi-sunak/

This will of course rumble on because of the three (or more?) by-elections themselves, which will only add to the sense of disunity.

The Boris wing of the party. Or, rather, the wing of the party with whom Boris hitched a ride, are by no means finished. They are vociferous with powerful allies. And unfortunately for Rishi Sunak, they represent a part of the electorate that no other tory can reach - the kind who get in a lather about migrants, trans rights, and the bbc etc.

Meanwhile Nigel Farage, in full-on Trumpian mode, has declared that there's an establishment plot to reverse Brexit.

The tories are toast.

Farage is just riding the Brexit gravy train.

Brexit has not been a success so far. Any establishment ‘plot’ is simply to make it work better. Labour are being criticised for their reluctance to roll back brexit more.

Roger · June 2023

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Nigelb said:

FrequentLurker said:
This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...

...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience

Even those who don't understand how inflation works understand when they can't buy things they used to be able to.
And that's the point. All of us who live on a tight budget and do the supermarket shopping know that inflation is rampant and we're getting squeezed.

And now mortgage deals are getting hit.

Meanwhile the tories are in open civil war.

The idea of swingback is a total joke. If there's a swing in the polls it will come from a week or so's time ... to Labour.

First principle of politics: be united.
Good morning

It is hard to disagree with you and Starmer is on course for a majority government in October 24

We are witnessing a 'Corbyn style' civil war in the conservative party but at least the first element has happened, in so far as Johnson has walked off with his malign entitlement attacking each and everyone, but himself thereby creating many opponents from his own side

I understand the privileges committee are very angry at the manner of Johnson's resignation, and the language used, that when they meet tomorrow to authorise the release their report, they are also considering further sanctions on Johnson which is inevitable

Parliament is sovereign and Johnson's Trump like behaviour has no place in our Parliament whatsoever, and it is essential that this threat to Parliament's authority is extinguished

The conservative party is facing meltdown not least from the voting public and the only hope for them is the majority of their mps vocally and publicly support Sunak at this time

It will be very interesting to see where we are in 6 months time, but for now a civil war is taking place but we all want to see Johnson and his sycophants marginalised, as has happened with Corbyn in labour

The tiny glimmer of hope for Sunak is that he can now clear out the last vestiges of the Johnson clique -particularly Braverman- and start looking like a decisive leader. Something Tory voters admire above all else

nico679 · June 2023

Johnson was never put on the spot by the broadcast media . He stood there lying in interviews and the reporters just nodded , indeed this happens all the time with other politicians. For fear of not being granted further interviews politicians are given a free ride.

DougSeal · June 2023

MarqueeMark said:
The Tories are in open civil war - in Boris's mind.

For months now, the Tories have been in "Bye bye Boris....anyway....." mode.

And in the mind of the press…or at least it’s an impression they want to give to boost circulation/clicks. The test will be how well your team can convey your protestations of meditative calm to the public reading headlines like the (hard copy) MoS this morning.

OldKingCole · June 2023

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

CarlottaVance said:
The Green Party could lose their only seat in Parliament at the next general election, according to recent polling.

According to a poll for Best for Britain, Brighton Pavilion would elect a Labour MP for the first time since 2010 if an election was held tomorrow.

The poll put Labour support in the constituency at 32.7 per cent, up almost 10 per cent from their result in the last general election.

However, support for the Greens is forecast to crater; from 57.2 per cent at the 2019 election to just 28.4 per cent - a staggering 28.8 per cent drop.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23578348.greens-will-lose-brighton-seat-next-election-poll-claims/?ref=ebln&nid=944
Interesting that poll still predicts no seats for the Lib Dems in an area where they used to be pretty strong.
The LibDems could very easily have a pretty shitty 2024.

And, no, I don't mean they won't gain seats. I'm confident they'll be up on 2019. But it doesn't take much for dreams of 50 seats to turn into a mushy 18 or 19.

Good morning, one and all.

The target for the Lib Dems must be one more seat than the Scottish nationalists. That way, they’ll get a voice in parliament, as the third party.

bondegezou · June 2023

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2e0dcdaa-078c-11ee-9e46-1e1d57315b13?shareToken=8db11e4eda3926b479e0599867a1b766

The Times has done it again. Anyone on here who still denies the lab leak theory is spouting Chinese propaganda. COVID leaked from the Chinese lab and then China, with the help of useful idiots in the West, covered it up and called anyone who disagreed a racist.
Bloody hell.
I'd like to see the underlying report, rather than the The Times's reportage, but this looks like the first genuinely new evidence in about two years.

I didn’t see any significant new reporting. The claim that the earliest cases were clustered around the lab rather than around the wet market does not match the peer-reviewed literature.

Maybe I’m too unforgiving, but it will be many more years until I trust the Sunday Times’ reporting of a pandemic virus after all the lies they told about HIV.

CarlottaVance · June 2023

The NHS Confederation getting the law wrong:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/11/new-nhs-guidance-could-prevent-same-sex-care-for-women

viewcode · June 2023

Taz said:
I see language is not inclusive now.

https://twitter.com/k_flynny369/status/1667483144872706049?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ

You appear to be having a blond moment

Or even a blonde one

Big_G_NorthWales · June 2023

DougSeal said:

MarqueeMark said:
The Tories are in open civil war - in Boris's mind.

For months now, the Tories have been in "Bye bye Boris....anyway....." mode.
And in the mind of the press…or at least it’s an impression they want to give to boost circulation/clicks. The test will be how well your team can convey your protestations of meditative calm to the public reading headlines like the (hard copy) MoS this morning.

We have a subscription to the digital mail only because my wife enjoys the puzzles and she is not politically minded

I did read it this morning with the ridiculous JRM piece and it is as sycophantic as ever for the malign Johnson

Indeed, even my wife was angry and said shall we cancel it, but I know how much she enjoys the puzzles so no but, as I say at times on here, just ignore it if it gets to you and if necessary have a cup of tea (or coffee) and a rich tea biscuit

Taz · June 2023

viewcode said:

Taz said:
I see language is not inclusive now.

https://twitter.com/k_flynny369/status/1667483144872706049?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
You appear to be having a blond moment

Or even a blonde one

The only blonde moment I ever have is of the Leffe kind 😃

DecrepiterJohnL · June 2023

nico679 said:
Johnson was never put on the spot by the broadcast media . He stood there lying in interviews and the reporters just nodded , indeed this happens all the time with other politicians. For fear of not being granted further interviews politicians are given a free ride.

And they knew that because Boris famously ducked Andrew Neil and Panorama, pretty much baked into the British constitution.

Scott_xP · June 2023

To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it ...”

I quote Orwell’s description of doublethink almost in full because I think it offers a useful lens to understand the psychological state of the UK on the weekend that Boris Johnson — perhaps the most consequential British politician of this century — announced his retirement from parliament, if not yet from politics.

Seven years on, we are facing the worst cost of living crisis in history. Our economy has spluttered, trade in goods has fallen and life expectancy for the poorest may be falling, too. The lives of real people up and down the nation — in Remain and Leave areas — are diminished, crueller, thinner. Most of the free-trade deals vanished in a puff of smoke — Johnson couldn’t even deliver free trade across the United Kingdom. The much-vaunted extra money for the NHS? Patients face the longest waiting lists in history. The slash and burn of “unnecessary” regulations? Much of the absurd Retained EU Law Bill was scrapped when Brexiters came face to face with what it would actually mean.

The point is that almost every claim of Brexiters has collided with reality and crumbled. And yet we are still lost in a labyrinth a majority voted for, our politicians searching for a vocabulary that hints at the disaster of Brexit without admitting it, that seeks to tackle its symptoms without addressing its cause. Welcome to Doublethink Britain

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/johnsons-brexit-chicanery-has-led-us-into-doublethink-britain-78xj5bnrm

Tres · June 2023

DecrepiterJohnL said:

nico679 said:
Johnson was never put on the spot by the broadcast media . He stood there lying in interviews and the reporters just nodded , indeed this happens all the time with other politicians. For fear of not being granted further interviews politicians are given a free ride.
And they knew that because Boris famously ducked Andrew Neil and Panorama, pretty much baked into the British constitution.

Obviously that was another red flag among many - but why put himself through that when he could have the simpering Laura K lobbing feeders for his pre-prepared lines to him.

Scott_xP · June 2023

...

darkage · June 2023

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2e0dcdaa-078c-11ee-9e46-1e1d57315b13?shareToken=8db11e4eda3926b479e0599867a1b766

The Times has done it again. Anyone on here who still denies the lab leak theory is spouting Chinese propaganda. COVID leaked from the Chinese lab and then China, with the help of useful idiots in the West, covered it up and called anyone who disagreed a racist.
Bloody hell.

This serves to demonstrate that no one should believe the government when they say something is a 'conspiracy theory' or 'misinformation'. The most appropriate response when they do this is to assume that it is true.

More broadly, policy regarding China for the last 20 years has been astoundingly naive in almost all areas. There is no independent public sphere in China, the government has its hand in everything, this should be obvious to anyone who has had any dealings with China.

Scott_xP · June 2023

DecrepiterJohnL said:

nico679 said:
Johnson was never put on the spot by the broadcast media . He stood there lying in interviews and the reporters just nodded , indeed this happens all the time with other politicians. For fear of not being granted further interviews politicians are given a free ride.
And they knew that because Boris famously ducked Andrew Neil and Panorama, pretty much baked into the British constitution.

Everybody knew he was a coward, but still they idolize him.

CarlottaVance · June 2023

The Government on the offensive against Boris Johnson

Grant Shapps tells @SophyRidgeSky repeatedly that the World has moved on from Boris Johnson

‘Of course it’s moved on. Factually things have moved on’

Johnson and his allies disagree

It’s 8.37am - could be a long day ahead

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1667798300127313922?s=20

Roger · June 2023

Monksfield said:

IanB2 said:
The slightly belated and rarely-sighted Saturday Rawnsley:

The man [Johnson] is a coward. Whenever faced with the consequences of his actions, he ducks. Whenever confronted with a choice that requires some courage, he swerves. Whenever asked to make good on a promise, he betrays. Whenever the choice is fight or flight, he flees.

In the richly storied history of British politics, there has been no ascent, peak, decline and fall quite like it. Some people have a go at trying to compare him with previous tenants of Number 10, but that is a futile quest. We have never seen anyone quite like him in Downing Street before and, if we are a lucky country, we will never do so again. Being Boris Johnson, he is exiting the stage without a shred of humility, a scintilla of remorse or a sliver of recognition that he brought this on himself.

He could have sought to have the committee’s verdict – which I am told is coruscating – overturned by the Commons. Someone who authentically believed himself to have suffered a miscarriage of justice might have attempted that. That he has chosen not to appeal to the Commons is an implied acknowledgment of how low his standing has sunk even among the Conservative MPs who put him in Number 10.

There is no martyr to see here. There is a man who serially debased the high office that he was never fit to hold. There is a man who turned government into a carnival of clowning, chaos and chicanery. There is a man who presided over an appalling regime of lockdown-busting and law-breaking in Downing Street which triggered entirely justified public outrage and was poison for the people’s faith in government.

Some of the officials who saw him at close quarters at Number 10 came away from the experience wondering whether he actually understood the difference between right and wrong and whether he ever really grasped the distinction between the truth and lies. Unless he has entirely succumbed to delusions, there must surely be a portion of his brain which knows that the person responsible for the destruction of his political career stares back him at him whenever he looks in a mirror. Yet he can never acknowledge, at least not in public, what is obvious even to some of those who were once counted among his most ardent supporters. It is the way of the coward to flinch from confronting the inescapable truth that the architect of Boris Johnson’s downfall is Boris Johnson.
Completely agree with the Rawnsley assessment. But few of these denizens of our third estate were willing to say this when Johnson was in power. Despite the very flaws that brought him down being in plain sight throughout.

Journalism needs to take a long hard look at itself in the mirror.

If you consider the writers of the Express Telegraph Mail and Sun 'journalists' I would agree with you. Most of the others pointed out his flaws and previous history regularly. People believe what they want to believe

TimS · June 2023

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2e0dcdaa-078c-11ee-9e46-1e1d57315b13?shareToken=8db11e4eda3926b479e0599867a1b766

The Times has done it again. Anyone on here who still denies the lab leak theory is spouting Chinese propaganda. COVID leaked from the Chinese lab and then China, with the help of useful idiots in the West, covered it up and called anyone who disagreed a racist.
Bloody hell.
I'd like to see the underlying report, rather than the The Times's reportage, but this looks like the first genuinely new evidence in about two years.

At the very least it shows the irritating magisterial dismissals we’ve had to put up with from many commentators over 3 years are as misplaced and overconfident as they always seemed.

It may yet turn out that the virus had a natural origin but the evidence for that never looked overwhelming.

OldKingCole · June 2023

darkage said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2e0dcdaa-078c-11ee-9e46-1e1d57315b13?shareToken=8db11e4eda3926b479e0599867a1b766

The Times has done it again. Anyone on here who still denies the lab leak theory is spouting Chinese propaganda. COVID leaked from the Chinese lab and then China, with the help of useful idiots in the West, covered it up and called anyone who disagreed a racist.
Bloody hell.
This serves to demonstrate that no one should believe the government when they say something is a 'conspiracy theory' or 'misinformation'. The most appropriate response when they do this is to assume that it is true.

More broadly, policy regarding China for the last 20 years has been astoundingly naive in almost all areas. There is no independent public sphere in China, the government has its hand in everything, this should be obvious to anyone who has had any dealings with China.

And the memory of the Chinese government is long, and takes into account issues which affected policy in the 19th and 20th centuries, as well as this one. The West, in and particularly, the Americans go to the other extreme.

DougSeal · June 2023

CarlottaVance said:
The Government on the offensive against Boris Johnson

Grant Shapps tells @SophyRidgeSky repeatedly that the World has moved on from Boris Johnson

‘Of course it’s moved on. Factually things have moved on’

Johnson and his allies disagree

It’s 8.37am - could be a long day ahead

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1667798300127313922?s=20

What a senselessly over dramatic tweet. Nothing, nada, is going to happen today beyond some Tory bellyaching

Morris_Dancer · June 2023

Good morning, everyone.

Interesting BBC article on Kong Yiji and unhappy memes from unemployed graduates in China:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-65425941

If economic prospects decline I wonder if that will have a material impact on the prospects of things kicking off against Taiwan as a distraction.

Theuniondivvie · June 2023

Infamy, infamy, even the the mice have it in for me.

Rumours of the Mail having moved on from BADS (Boris Arslikhan Derangement Syndrome) have been greatly exaggerated.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12182029/MAIL-SUNDAY-COMMENT-Boris-tiger-undone-minuscule-nibbling-mice.html

Stuartinromford · June 2023

Tres said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

nico679 said:
Johnson was never put on the spot by the broadcast media . He stood there lying in interviews and the reporters just nodded , indeed this happens all the time with other politicians. For fear of not being granted further interviews politicians are given a free ride.
And they knew that because Boris famously ducked Andrew Neil and Panorama, pretty much baked into the British constitution.
Obviously that was another red flag among many - but why put himself through that when he could have the simpering Laura K lobbing feeders for his pre-prepared lines to him.

There were enough red flags round Boris to make one think that our Saturday friend was in charge of the decoration. But one of the arts of the conman is to make you ignore the red flags.

Another is that victims of cons rarely call out the grifter properly; that would entail admitting that they (the victim) had done something stupid, greedy, dishonest or worse.

For the Conservatives, that's a problem. Because the British right has been had by an extraordinary conman. Nadine and Nigel are just the latest victims, and they deserve less sympathy than most.

DecrepiterJohnL · June 2023

Scott_xP said:
To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it ...”

I quote Orwell’s description of doublethink almost in full because I think it offers a useful lens to understand the psychological state of the UK on the weekend that Boris Johnson — perhaps the most consequential British politician of this century — announced his retirement from parliament, if not yet from politics.

Seven years on, we are facing the worst cost of living crisis in history. Our economy has spluttered, trade in goods has fallen and life expectancy for the poorest may be falling, too. The lives of real people up and down the nation — in Remain and Leave areas — are diminished, crueller, thinner. Most of the free-trade deals vanished in a puff of smoke — Johnson couldn’t even deliver free trade across the United Kingdom. The much-vaunted extra money for the NHS? Patients face the longest waiting lists in history. The slash and burn of “unnecessary” regulations? Much of the absurd Retained EU Law Bill was scrapped when Brexiters came face to face with what it would actually mean.

The point is that almost every claim of Brexiters has collided with reality and crumbled. And yet we are still lost in a labyrinth a majority voted for, our politicians searching for a vocabulary that hints at the disaster of Brexit without admitting it, that seeks to tackle its symptoms without addressing its cause. Welcome to Doublethink Britain

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/johnsons-brexit-chicanery-has-led-us-into-doublethink-britain-78xj5bnrm

On that note, time for another listen to the Boris rewrite of The Windmills of Your Mind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_gojozdxok

Benpointer · June 2023

Theuniondivvie said:
Infamy, infamy, even the the mice have it in for me.

Rumours of the Mail having moved on from BADS (Boris Arslikhan Derangement Syndrome) have been greatly exaggerated.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12182029/MAIL-SUNDAY-COMMENT-Boris-tiger-undone-minuscule-nibbling-mice.html

Infamy, infamy, the mice have it in for me!

Brilliant!

TimS · June 2023

As I mooted yesterday. I think it could potentially happen. Nor probably, but possibly.

I think this @EmmaBurnell_ piece makes a fairly persuasive case that a logical place for Boris to end up would be as leader of Reform UK.

Not sure how likely, but the party is ideologically flexible and theoretically speaks to the 2019 coalition.

https://twitter.com/psythor/status/1667802215875002369?s=46

Could help to send the Tories down to a defeat of historic proportions.

Tres · June 2023

Stuartinromford said:

Tres said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

nico679 said:
Johnson was never put on the spot by the broadcast media . He stood there lying in interviews and the reporters just nodded , indeed this happens all the time with other politicians. For fear of not being granted further interviews politicians are given a free ride.
And they knew that because Boris famously ducked Andrew Neil and Panorama, pretty much baked into the British constitution.
Obviously that was another red flag among many - but why put himself through that when he could have the simpering Laura K lobbing feeders for his pre-prepared lines to him.
There were enough red flags round Boris to make one think that our Saturday friend was in charge of the decoration. But one of the arts of the conman is to make you ignore the red flags.

Another is that victims of cons rarely call out the grifter properly; that would entail admitting that they (the victim) had done something stupid, greedy, dishonest or worse.

For the Conservatives, that's a problem. Because the British right has been had by an extraordinary conman. Nadine and Nigel are just the latest victims, and they deserve less sympathy than most.

All the Conservatives have done is replaced Del Boy with Rodney.

MarqueeMark · June 2023

TimS said:
As I mooted yesterday. I think it could potentially happen. Nor probably, but possibly.

I think this @EmmaBurnell_ piece makes a fairly persuasive case that a logical place for Boris to end up would be as leader of Reform UK.

Not sure how likely, but the party is ideologically flexible and theoretically speaks to the 2019 coalition.

https://twitter.com/psythor/status/1667802215875002369?s=46

Could help to send the Tories down to a defeat of historic proportions.

Nah. He'll probably blag next head of NATO....

TheScreamingEagles · June 2023

Benpointer said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Infamy, infamy, even the the mice have it in for me.

Rumours of the Mail having moved on from BADS (Boris Arslikhan Derangement Syndrome) have been greatly exaggerated.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12182029/MAIL-SUNDAY-COMMENT-Boris-tiger-undone-minuscule-nibbling-mice.html

Infamy, infamy, the mice have it in for me!

Brilliant!

I did it better.

From 2017 when Mrs May was in trouble.

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/09/16/infamy-infamy-theyve-all-got-in-for-may/

darkage · June 2023

TimS said:
As I mooted yesterday. I think it could potentially happen. Nor probably, but possibly.

I think this @EmmaBurnell_ piece makes a fairly persuasive case that a logical place for Boris to end up would be as leader of Reform UK.

Not sure how likely, but the party is ideologically flexible and theoretically speaks to the 2019 coalition.

https://twitter.com/psythor/status/1667802215875002369?s=46

Could help to send the Tories down to a defeat of historic proportions.

Yeah - he would have 'saved' the conservative party in 2019, and then gone on to destroy it 5 years later.

What is problematic for him though is his low public opinion poll ratings, he seems like someone who hasn't come to terms with the fact that his time has passed.

Benpointer · June 2023

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

Interesting BBC article on Kong Yiji and unhappy memes from unemployed graduates in China:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-65425941

If economic prospects decline I wonder if that will have a material impact on the prospects of things kicking off against Taiwan as a distraction.

A cheerful thought for a Sunday morning Morris. Thanks for that 😳

Scott_xP · June 2023

@PickardJE

“and that was Tiger Undone by Miniscule Nibbling Mice”

Barnesian · June 2023

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

CarlottaVance said:
The Green Party could lose their only seat in Parliament at the next general election, according to recent polling.

According to a poll for Best for Britain, Brighton Pavilion would elect a Labour MP for the first time since 2010 if an election was held tomorrow.

The poll put Labour support in the constituency at 32.7 per cent, up almost 10 per cent from their result in the last general election.

However, support for the Greens is forecast to crater; from 57.2 per cent at the 2019 election to just 28.4 per cent - a staggering 28.8 per cent drop.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23578348.greens-will-lose-brighton-seat-next-election-poll-claims/?ref=ebln&nid=944
Interesting that poll still predicts no seats for the Lib Dems in an area where they used to be pretty strong.
The LibDems could very easily have a pretty shitty 2024.

And, no, I don't mean they won't gain seats. I'm confident they'll be up on 2019. But it doesn't take much for dreams of 50 seats to turn into a mushy 18 or 19.
Good morning, one and all.

The target for the Lib Dems must be one more seat than the Scottish nationalists. That way, they’ll get a voice in parliament, as the third party.

Current EMA into Electoral Calculus with tactical voting puts the Lib Dems on 28 seats and the SNP on 26.

HYUFD · June 2023

TimS said:
As I mooted yesterday. I think it could potentially happen. Nor probably, but possibly.

I think this @EmmaBurnell_ piece makes a fairly persuasive case that a logical place for Boris to end up would be as leader of Reform UK.

Not sure how likely, but the party is ideologically flexible and theoretically speaks to the 2019 coalition.

https://twitter.com/psythor/status/1667802215875002369?s=46

Could help to send the Tories down to a defeat of historic proportions.

He won't bother under FPTP and Farage wouldn't let him anyway

HYUFD · June 2023

MikeL said:
OPINIUM POLL OF 144 MARGINAL SEATS:

(Sample size 4,065, fieldwork 19-31 May)

Lab 39 (+7)
Con 32 (-12)

That's a slightly smaller swing that national polls are currently showing.

This would put Lab right on the boundary of getting a majority - it needs to gain 124 seats and this poll suggests it would gain 123-125 seats.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/10/labour-lead-tories-battleground-seats-poll-conservatives-election

The local elections suggested Labour wasn't certain of getting a majority in England certainly either.

Labour may rely on gains from the SNP in Scotland therefore to get even a narrow overall majority UK wide

DecrepiterJohnL · June 2023

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Scott_xP said:
To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it ...”

I quote Orwell’s description of doublethink almost in full because I think it offers a useful lens to understand the psychological state of the UK on the weekend that Boris Johnson — perhaps the most consequential British politician of this century — announced his retirement from parliament, if not yet from politics.

Seven years on, we are facing the worst cost of living crisis in history. Our economy has spluttered, trade in goods has fallen and life expectancy for the poorest may be falling, too. The lives of real people up and down the nation — in Remain and Leave areas — are diminished, crueller, thinner. Most of the free-trade deals vanished in a puff of smoke — Johnson couldn’t even deliver free trade across the United Kingdom. The much-vaunted extra money for the NHS? Patients face the longest waiting lists in history. The slash and burn of “unnecessary” regulations? Much of the absurd Retained EU Law Bill was scrapped when Brexiters came face to face with what it would actually mean.

The point is that almost every claim of Brexiters has collided with reality and crumbled. And yet we are still lost in a labyrinth a majority voted for, our politicians searching for a vocabulary that hints at the disaster of Brexit without admitting it, that seeks to tackle its symptoms without addressing its cause. Welcome to Doublethink Britain

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/johnsons-brexit-chicanery-has-led-us-into-doublethink-britain-78xj5bnrm
On that note, time for another listen to the Boris rewrite of The Windmills of Your Mind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_gojozdxok

Or as Rory put it:-
Johnson is after all the most accomplished liar in public life.
He has mastered the use of error, omission, exaggeration, diminution, equivocation and flat denial.
He has perfected casuistry, circumlocution, false equivalence and false analogy. He is equally adept at the ironic jest, the fib and the grand lie; the weasel word and the half-truth; the hyperbolic lie, the obvious lie, and the bullshit lie – which may inadvertently be true.
https://www.the-tls.co.uk/articles/boris-johnson-tom-bower-book-review-rory-stewart/

NickPalmer · June 2023

On topic, I think the real issue is not so much that people misunderstand the word "halve" is that they primarily go by personal experience. If they find that prices are going up they don't think "Hmm, that's 4.3% more than last year, 4.4% less than a year ago"), they think "There's still a problem". If they then read a Tory leaflet quoting statistics at them purporting (perhaps even truthfully) to show it's getting better, they think they're being conned.

Eventually, personal experience catches up - people no longer grumble about mass unemployment, because although individuals still struggle, it's evident that most people are now able to get a job, and the main problem is now shortages of applicants. But there was a long lag time before people believed it.

Scott_xP · June 2023

@GdnPolitics

Boris Johnson’s legacy? He has ruined Britain’s place in the world | Michael Heseltine

https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1667807776192733184

Carnyx · June 2023

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Scott_xP said:
To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it ...”

I quote Orwell’s description of doublethink almost in full because I think it offers a useful lens to understand the psychological state of the UK on the weekend that Boris Johnson — perhaps the most consequential British politician of this century — announced his retirement from parliament, if not yet from politics.

Seven years on, we are facing the worst cost of living crisis in history. Our economy has spluttered, trade in goods has fallen and life expectancy for the poorest may be falling, too. The lives of real people up and down the nation — in Remain and Leave areas — are diminished, crueller, thinner. Most of the free-trade deals vanished in a puff of smoke — Johnson couldn’t even deliver free trade across the United Kingdom. The much-vaunted extra money for the NHS? Patients face the longest waiting lists in history. The slash and burn of “unnecessary” regulations? Much of the absurd Retained EU Law Bill was scrapped when Brexiters came face to face with what it would actually mean.

The point is that almost every claim of Brexiters has collided with reality and crumbled. And yet we are still lost in a labyrinth a majority voted for, our politicians searching for a vocabulary that hints at the disaster of Brexit without admitting it, that seeks to tackle its symptoms without addressing its cause. Welcome to Doublethink Britain

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/johnsons-brexit-chicanery-has-led-us-into-doublethink-britain-78xj5bnrm
On that note, time for another listen to the Boris rewrite of The Windmills of Your Mind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_gojozdxok
Or as Rory put it:-
Johnson is after all the most accomplished liar in public life.
He has mastered the use of error, omission, exaggeration, diminution, equivocation and flat denial.
He has perfected casuistry, circumlocution, false equivalence and false analogy. He is equally adept at the ironic jest, the fib and the grand lie; the weasel word and the half-truth; the hyperbolic lie,
the obvious lie, and the bullshit lie – which may inadvertently be true.
https://www.the-tls.co.uk/articles/boris-johnson-tom-bower-book-review-rory-stewart/

Trouble is, as we see with some of that ilk (but, it should be noted, by no means all, or even many) on here, the Tories and right-wingers were only too happy to go along with that. It's not just individuals but the party which is in denial of its own incompetence and malice.

FF43 · June 2023

The problem for Sunak is that the cost of living, especially for the basics of food and energy and rents, will remain significantly higher than it was before. People will feel poorer unless wages catch up.

Peter_the_Punter · June 2023

HYUFD said:

MikeL said:
OPINIUM POLL OF 144 MARGINAL SEATS:

(Sample size 4,065, fieldwork 19-31 May)

Lab 39 (+7)
Con 32 (-12)

That's a slightly smaller swing that national polls are currently showing.

This would put Lab right on the boundary of getting a majority - it needs to gain 124 seats and this poll suggests it would gain 123-125 seats.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/10/labour-lead-tories-battleground-seats-poll-conservatives-election
The local elections suggested Labour wasn't certain of getting a majority in England certainly either.

Labour may rely on gains from the SNP in Scotland therefore to get even a narrow overall majority UK wide

Yes, that and tactical voting.

kle4 · June 2023

IanB2 said:
The slightly belated and rarely-sighted Saturday Rawnsley:

The man [Johnson] is a coward. Whenever faced with the consequences of his actions, he ducks. Whenever confronted with a choice that requires some courage, he swerves. Whenever asked to make good on a promise, he betrays. Whenever the choice is fight or flight, he flees.

In the richly storied history of British politics, there has been no ascent, peak, decline and fall quite like it. Some people have a go at trying to compare him with previous tenants of Number 10, but that is a futile quest. We have never seen anyone quite like him in Downing Street before and, if we are a lucky country, we will never do so again. Being Boris Johnson, he is exiting the stage without a shred of humility, a scintilla of remorse or a sliver of recognition that he brought this on himself.

He could have sought to have the committee’s verdict – which I am told is coruscating – overturned by the Commons. Someone who authentically believed himself to have suffered a miscarriage of justice might have attempted that. That he has chosen not to appeal to the Commons is an implied acknowledgment of how low his standing has sunk even among the Conservative MPs who put him in Number 10.

There is no martyr to see here. There is a man who serially debased the high office that he was never fit to hold. There is a man who turned government into a carnival of clowning, chaos and chicanery. There is a man who presided over an appalling regime of lockdown-busting and law-breaking in Downing Street which triggered entirely justified public outrage and was poison for the people’s faith in government.

Some of the officials who saw him at close quarters at Number 10 came away from the experience wondering whether he actually understood the difference between right and wrong and whether he ever really grasped the distinction between the truth and lies. Unless he has entirely succumbed to delusions, there must surely be a portion of his brain which knows that the person responsible for the destruction of his political career stares back him at him whenever he looks in a mirror. Yet he can never acknowledge, at least not in public, what is obvious even to some of those who were once counted among his most ardent supporters. It is the way of the coward to flinch from confronting the inescapable truth that the architect of Boris Johnson’s downfall is Boris Johnson.

Or to be more concise, what is the common element behind all his troubles? His carelessness and selfishness.

Carnyx · June 2023

FF43 said:
The problem for Sunak is that the cost of living, especially for the basics of food and energy and rents, will remain significantly higher than it was before. People will feel poorer unless wages catch up.

With the corollary problem that[edit] his assertions - as some Tories on here show - of "What problem? inflation is down" will be met with the entirely natural and rational response of "WTF?! Lying sod."

OldKingCole · June 2023

Barnesian said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

CarlottaVance said:
The Green Party could lose their only seat in Parliament at the next general election, according to recent polling.

According to a poll for Best for Britain, Brighton Pavilion would elect a Labour MP for the first time since 2010 if an election was held tomorrow.

The poll put Labour support in the constituency at 32.7 per cent, up almost 10 per cent from their result in the last general election.

However, support for the Greens is forecast to crater; from 57.2 per cent at the 2019 election to just 28.4 per cent - a staggering 28.8 per cent drop.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23578348.greens-will-lose-brighton-seat-next-election-poll-claims/?ref=ebln&nid=944
Interesting that poll still predicts no seats for the Lib Dems in an area where they used to be pretty strong.
The LibDems could very easily have a pretty shitty 2024.

And, no, I don't mean they won't gain seats. I'm confident they'll be up on 2019. But it doesn't take much for dreams of 50 seats to turn into a mushy 18 or 19.
Good morning, one and all.

The target for the Lib Dems must be one more seat than the Scottish nationalists. That way, they’ll get a voice in parliament, as the third party.
Current EMA into Electoral Calculus with tactical voting puts the Lib Dems on 28 seats and the SNP on 26.

That would be quite satisfactory! I’m surprised they think the Greens will retain one seat, though.

Carnyx · June 2023

HYUFD said:

MikeL said:
OPINIUM POLL OF 144 MARGINAL SEATS:

(Sample size 4,065, fieldwork 19-31 May)

Lab 39 (+7)
Con 32 (-12)

That's a slightly smaller swing that national polls are currently showing.

This would put Lab right on the boundary of getting a majority - it needs to gain 124 seats and this poll suggests it would gain 123-125 seats.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/10/labour-lead-tories-battleground-seats-poll-conservatives-election
The local elections suggested Labour wasn't certain of getting a majority in England certainly either.

Labour may rely on gains from the SNP in Scotland therefore to get even a narrow overall majority UK wide

Won't do them any good, given the nature of the devolution settlement, as you and I have observed before. It's votes and seats in England that they need.

kle4 · June 2023

HYUFD said:

TimS said:
As I mooted yesterday. I think it could potentially happen. Nor probably, but possibly.

I think this @EmmaBurnell_ piece makes a fairly persuasive case that a logical place for Boris to end up would be as leader of Reform UK.

Not sure how likely, but the party is ideologically flexible and theoretically speaks to the 2019 coalition.

https://twitter.com/psythor/status/1667802215875002369?s=46

Could help to send the Tories down to a defeat of historic proportions.
He won't bother under FPTP and Farage wouldn't let him anyway

Boris is an establishment Tory, not a budding Andrew Bridgen jumping ship to another party.

He'll rage and moan and scheme, and retain influence and support, not abandoned relevance entirely.

felix · June 2023

Scott_xP said:
To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it ...”

I quote Orwell’s description of doublethink almost in full because I think it offers a useful lens to understand the psychological state of the UK on the weekend that Boris Johnson — perhaps the most consequential British politician of this century — announced his retirement from parliament, if not yet from politics.

Seven years on, we are facing the worst cost of living crisis in history. Our economy has spluttered, trade in goods has fallen and life expectancy for the poorest may be falling, too. The lives of real people up and down the nation — in Remain and Leave areas — are diminished, crueller, thinner. Most of the free-trade deals vanished in a puff of smoke — Johnson couldn’t even deliver free trade across the United Kingdom. The much-vaunted extra money for the NHS? Patients face the longest waiting lists in history. The slash and burn of “unnecessary” regulations? Much of the absurd Retained EU Law Bill was scrapped when Brexiters came face to face with what it would actually mean.

The point is that almost every claim of Brexiters has collided with reality and crumbled. And yet we are still lost in a labyrinth a majority voted for, our politicians searching for a vocabulary that hints at the disaster of Brexit without admitting it, that seeks to tackle its symptoms without addressing its cause. Welcome to Doublethink Britain

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/johnsons-brexit-chicanery-has-led-us-into-doublethink-britain-78xj5bnrm

Sadly the writer in his enthusiasm to blame all of the country's ills upon Brexit (and indeed it has not helped) has forgotten that the primary cause of most of our current issues have been the need to pay for 2 years off work due to Covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It really does not help to counter the lies and dissembling of Johnsonian politics with a similay myopia regarding truth on the other side. Rather it serves to confirm the views of many that basically all politicians are a shower of s***e.

Barnesian · June 2023

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

MikeL said:
OPINIUM POLL OF 144 MARGINAL SEATS:

(Sample size 4,065, fieldwork 19-31 May)

Lab 39 (+7)
Con 32 (-12)

That's a slightly smaller swing that national polls are currently showing.

This would put Lab right on the boundary of getting a majority - it needs to gain 124 seats and this poll suggests it would gain 123-125 seats.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/10/labour-lead-tories-battleground-seats-poll-conservatives-election
The local elections suggested Labour wasn't certain of getting a majority in England certainly either.

Labour may rely on gains from the SNP in Scotland therefore to get even a narrow overall majority UK wide
Yes, that and tactical voting.

Tactical voting by Lib Dems could give Labour an extra 40 seats.
Tactical voting by Labour supporters could give Lib Dems and extra 8 seats.
All at the Tories expense.

kle4 · June 2023

Theuniondivvie said:
Infamy, infamy, even the the mice have it in for me.

Rumours of the Mail having moved on from BADS (Boris Arslikhan Derangement Syndrome) have been greatly exaggerated.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12182029/MAIL-SUNDAY-COMMENT-Boris-tiger-undone-minuscule-nibbling-mice.html

I've never understood that attempted defence.

If someone is brought down by political pygmies they were not a substantial figure themselves. If the argument is there were so many of the little figures they were able to do it then that also shows they were not great since they provoked enough small figures to bring them down.

Peter_the_Punter · June 2023

Barnesian said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

CarlottaVance said:
The Green Party could lose their only seat in Parliament at the next general election, according to recent polling.

According to a poll for Best for Britain, Brighton Pavilion would elect a Labour MP for the first time since 2010 if an election was held tomorrow.

The poll put Labour support in the constituency at 32.7 per cent, up almost 10 per cent from their result in the last general election.

However, support for the Greens is forecast to crater; from 57.2 per cent at the 2019 election to just 28.4 per cent - a staggering 28.8 per cent drop.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23578348.greens-will-lose-brighton-seat-next-election-poll-claims/?ref=ebln&nid=944
Interesting that poll still predicts no seats for the Lib Dems in an area where they used to be pretty strong.
The LibDems could very easily have a pretty shitty 2024.

And, no, I don't mean they won't gain seats. I'm confident they'll be up on 2019. But it doesn't take much for dreams of 50 seats to turn into a mushy 18 or 19.
Good morning, one and all.

The target for the Lib Dems must be one more seat than the Scottish nationalists. That way, they’ll get a voice in parliament, as the third party.
Current EMA into Electoral Calculus with tactical voting puts the Lib Dems on 28 seats and the SNP on 26.

I suspect the LDs will do better than that, partly due to tactical voting but also the increased publicity in a GE campaign. Also, there will be no third Party squeeze, as there was last time.

My guestimate is around 30 seats.

It's more difficult to guage the likely score for the SNP because their fortunes stand on more of a knife-edge. I think they'd be doing well to score above 30 though.

Theuniondivvie · June 2023

Carnyx said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Scott_xP said:
To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it ...”

I quote Orwell’s description of doublethink almost in full because I think it offers a useful lens to understand the psychological state of the UK on the weekend that Boris Johnson — perhaps the most consequential British politician of this century — announced his retirement from parliament, if not yet from politics.

Seven years on, we are facing the worst cost of living crisis in history. Our economy has spluttered, trade in goods has fallen and life expectancy for the poorest may be falling, too. The lives of real people up and down the nation — in Remain and Leave areas — are diminished, crueller, thinner. Most of the free-trade deals vanished in a puff of smoke — Johnson couldn’t even deliver free trade across the United Kingdom. The much-vaunted extra money for the NHS? Patients face the longest waiting lists in history. The slash and burn of “unnecessary” regulations? Much of the absurd Retained EU Law Bill was scrapped when Brexiters came face to face with what it would actually mean.

The point is that almost every claim of Brexiters has collided with reality and crumbled. And yet we are still lost in a labyrinth a majority voted for, our politicians searching for a vocabulary that hints at the disaster of Brexit without admitting it, that seeks to tackle its symptoms without addressing its cause. Welcome to Doublethink Britain

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/johnsons-brexit-chicanery-has-led-us-into-doublethink-britain-78xj5bnrm
On that note, time for another listen to the Boris rewrite of The Windmills of Your Mind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_gojozdxok
Or as Rory put it:-
Johnson is after all the most accomplished liar in public life.
He has mastered the use of error, omission, exaggeration, diminution, equivocation and flat denial.
He has perfected casuistry, circumlocution, false equivalence and false analogy. He is equally adept at the ironic jest, the fib and the grand lie; the weasel word and the half-truth; the hyperbolic lie,
the obvious lie, and the bullshit lie – which may inadvertently be true.
https://www.the-tls.co.uk/articles/boris-johnson-tom-bower-book-review-rory-stewart/
Trouble is, as we see with some of that ilk (but, it should be noted, by no means all, or even many) on here, the Tories and right-wingers were only too happy to go along with that. It's not just individuals but the party which is in denial of its own incompetence and malice.

To give auld George another work out, ‘We were always at war with Eurasia’ .

felix · June 2023

Peter_the_Punter said:

Barnesian said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

CarlottaVance said:
The Green Party could lose their only seat in Parliament at the next general election, according to recent polling.

According to a poll for Best for Britain, Brighton Pavilion would elect a Labour MP for the first time since 2010 if an election was held tomorrow.

The poll put Labour support in the constituency at 32.7 per cent, up almost 10 per cent from their result in the last general election.

However, support for the Greens is forecast to crater; from 57.2 per cent at the 2019 election to just 28.4 per cent - a staggering 28.8 per cent drop.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23578348.greens-will-lose-brighton-seat-next-election-poll-claims/?ref=ebln&nid=944
Interesting that poll still predicts no seats for the Lib Dems in an area where they used to be pretty strong.
The LibDems could very easily have a pretty shitty 2024.

And, no, I don't mean they won't gain seats. I'm confident they'll be up on 2019. But it doesn't take much for dreams of 50 seats to turn into a mushy 18 or 19.
Good morning, one and all.

The target for the Lib Dems must be one more seat than the Scottish nationalists. That way, they’ll get a voice in parliament, as the third party.
Current EMA into Electoral Calculus with tactical voting puts the Lib Dems on 28 seats and the SNP on 26.

I suspect the LDs will do better than that, partly due to tactical voting but also the increased publicity in a GE campaign. Also, there will be no third Party squeeze, as there was last time.

My guestimate is around 30 seats.

It's more difficult to guage the likely score for the SNP because their fortunes stand on more of a knife-edge. I think they'd be doing well to score above 30 though.

The most recent Scottish poll saw Labour down 4 points with the SNP up 3 and the Tories up 2. I'm not convinced that Scotland will be necessarily that fruitful for Labour next time.

Barnesian · June 2023

OldKingCole said:

Barnesian said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

CarlottaVance said:
The Green Party could lose their only seat in Parliament at the next general election, according to recent polling.

According to a poll for Best for Britain, Brighton Pavilion would elect a Labour MP for the first time since 2010 if an election was held tomorrow.

The poll put Labour support in the constituency at 32.7 per cent, up almost 10 per cent from their result in the last general election.

However, support for the Greens is forecast to crater; from 57.2 per cent at the 2019 election to just 28.4 per cent - a staggering 28.8 per cent drop.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23578348.greens-will-lose-brighton-seat-next-election-poll-claims/?ref=ebln&nid=944
Interesting that poll still predicts no seats for the Lib Dems in an area where they used to be pretty strong.
The LibDems could very easily have a pretty shitty 2024.

And, no, I don't mean they won't gain seats. I'm confident they'll be up on 2019. But it doesn't take much for dreams of 50 seats to turn into a mushy 18 or 19.
Good morning, one and all.

The target for the Lib Dems must be one more seat than the Scottish nationalists. That way, they’ll get a voice in parliament, as the third party.
Current EMA into Electoral Calculus with tactical voting puts the Lib Dems on 28 seats and the SNP on 26.

That would be quite satisfactory! I’m surprised they think the Greens will retain one seat, though.

Electoral Calculus doesn't know the recent local details of Brighton Pavillion and Caroline Lucas's retirement. It's a broad brush, clever algorithmic approach with swings and roundabouts. And 12 months is a long time in politics!

Having said that, I think the trend favours the LibDems, especially if we pull off a victory in Mid Beds. Train loads are going there today.

OnlyLivingBoy · June 2023

kle4 said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Infamy, infamy, even the the mice have it in for me.

Rumours of the Mail having moved on from BADS (Boris Arslikhan Derangement Syndrome) have been greatly exaggerated.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12182029/MAIL-SUNDAY-COMMENT-Boris-tiger-undone-minuscule-nibbling-mice.html

I've never understood that attempted defence.

If someone is brought down by political pygmies they were not a substantial figure themselves. If the argument is there were so many of the little figures they were able to do it then that also shows they were not great since they provoked enough small figures to bring them down.

It feels like a rather confused metaphor misremembered from Aesop's fables or The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (where the mice were actually helpful to the big cat). The last part of the headline, a possibly subconscious nod to Sunset Boulevard, sounds more appropriate. "I'm ready for my close up now, Mr Dacre..."

kle4 · June 2023

Carnyx said:

FF43 said:
The problem for Sunak is that the cost of living, especially for the basics of food and energy and rents, will remain significantly higher than it was before. People will feel poorer unless wages catch up.
With the corollary problem that[edit] his assertions - as some Tories on here show - of "What problem? inflation is down" will be met with the entirely natural and rational response of "WTF?! Lying sod."

Yes, what matters is not so much what the figures say but how people feel. And many more than before feel like shit.

Avoiding technical recession for exanple doesn't matter if people who used to feel comfortable feel they have to tighten their belts.

Benpointer · June 2023

TheScreamingEagles said:

Benpointer said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Infamy, infamy, even the the mice have it in for me.

Rumours of the Mail having moved on from BADS (Boris Arslikhan Derangement Syndrome) have been greatly exaggerated.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12182029/MAIL-SUNDAY-COMMENT-Boris-tiger-undone-minuscule-nibbling-mice.html

Infamy, infamy, the mice have it in for me!

Brilliant!
I did it better.

From 2017 when Mrs May was in trouble.

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/09/16/infamy-infamy-theyve-all-got-in-for-may/

Self-praise is no praise!

A cliché but true.

RochdalePioneers · June 2023

Westie said:
To be clear: contrary to headlines, Boris Johnson quitting as an MP has little effect on anything, the Tory party is not in civil war, his action is not a disaster for anyone, he's not about to stand in a by-election anywhere, and his action is unlikely to have an effect on voter intention polls. It will probably put the price of his memoirs up, though. He is unlikely to go on the speech circuit either, because he can't handle his drugs well enough. I blame David Cameron who let him attend cabinet while he was mayor of London, and also Teresa May who appointed him as foreign secretary.

The headlines aren't being fabricated - there is an insurrection against Sunak and Boris is the figurehead. Truss wanted to lead her own insurrection but is mental.

Peter_the_Punter · June 2023

OldKingCole said:

Barnesian said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

CarlottaVance said:
The Green Party could lose their only seat in Parliament at the next general election, according to recent polling.

According to a poll for Best for Britain, Brighton Pavilion would elect a Labour MP for the first time since 2010 if an election was held tomorrow.

The poll put Labour support in the constituency at 32.7 per cent, up almost 10 per cent from their result in the last general election.

However, support for the Greens is forecast to crater; from 57.2 per cent at the 2019 election to just 28.4 per cent - a staggering 28.8 per cent drop.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23578348.greens-will-lose-brighton-seat-next-election-poll-claims/?ref=ebln&nid=944
Interesting that poll still predicts no seats for the Lib Dems in an area where they used to be pretty strong.
The LibDems could very easily have a pretty shitty 2024.

And, no, I don't mean they won't gain seats. I'm confident they'll be up on 2019. But it doesn't take much for dreams of 50 seats to turn into a mushy 18 or 19.
Good morning, one and all.

The target for the Lib Dems must be one more seat than the Scottish nationalists. That way, they’ll get a voice in parliament, as the third party.
Current EMA into Electoral Calculus with tactical voting puts the Lib Dems on 28 seats and the SNP on 26.

That would be quite satisfactory! I’m surprised they think the Greens will retain one seat, though.

Probably hasn't caught up with the news that Lucas is standing down.

What an indictment of the system though that a Party can win 5% of the national vote but have little chance of winning a seat.

OnlyLivingBoy · June 2023

nico679 said:
Johnson was never put on the spot by the broadcast media . He stood there lying in interviews and the reporters just nodded , indeed this happens all the time with other politicians. For fear of not being granted further interviews politicians are given a free ride.

Eddie Mair took him apart, and Andrew Neil would have done if Johnson hadn't been too scared to face him. The Scots always had his number.

kle4 · June 2023

TimS said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2e0dcdaa-078c-11ee-9e46-1e1d57315b13?shareToken=8db11e4eda3926b479e0599867a1b766

The Times has done it again. Anyone on here who still denies the lab leak theory is spouting Chinese propaganda. COVID leaked from the Chinese lab and then China, with the help of useful idiots in the West, covered it up and called anyone who disagreed a racist.
Bloody hell.
I'd like to see the underlying report, rather than the The Times's reportage, but this looks like the first genuinely new evidence in about two years.
At the very least it shows the irritating magisterial dismissals we’ve had to put up with from many commentators over 3 years are as misplaced and overconfident as they always seemed.

It may yet turn out that the virus had a natural origin but the evidence for that never looked overwhelming.

I never really got why some went so strong on dismissal, without hedging.

IIRC Jon Stewart got a bit of stick for being open at least to the idea of lab leak.

CorrectHorseBat · June 2023

Interesting that the swing to Labour is higher in the battle ground seats

SandyRentool · June 2023

Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.

Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.

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