politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rochester and Strood is being presented as solely a CON-UKI
Comments
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Oh Jesus.SouthamObserver said:
My position is what it has been since around August 2010: we are heading for a Hung Parliament.0 -
Con or Lab Maj nailed on !0
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Hmm - both Assad and Obama are against ISIS - therefore they are the same by your "everyone is out to get us" logic.isam said:
Well there's your evidenceTGOHF said:Red on purple
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11178984/Chuka-Umunna-on-Ukip-vile-abhorrent-and-un-British.html
"The shadow business secretary suggested Ukip is not judged on the same terms as mainstream parties, saying that racism had been “priced in” by critics."
Everything Umunna says in that interview could and,indeed has, been said by Tories on here this week
There really is no difference. That's why both parties are losing support
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I think it more likely that the Tories will take two or three lib dem Scottish seats.antifrank said:Where the Lib Dems have been strong in Westminster seats, the SNP have historically been weak. While the SNP may pick up some of the seats from a Lib Dem implosion, five would be really going some. They are odds against in every Lib Dem seat bar Gordon. If you think that the SNP might pick up five of these, you should be betting on the constituency markets instead.
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On the current yougov the Lib-Dem Split is interesting
Con: 13%
Lab: 27%
Lib Dem 30%
UKIP 14%
Green 13%
Nationalists 2%
So although the 2:1 Labour/ Tory split is confirmed, it is nowhere near as much as previously thought.
And any Green resurgence will no doubt adversely affect the Labour vote.
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To my discomfiture I find myself agreeing with public schoolboy race huckster Umunna about something.TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP should be wise not to attack Britain's Barack Obama.TGOHF said:Red on purple
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11178984/Chuka-Umunna-on-Ukip-vile-abhorrent-and-un-British.html
"The shadow business secretary suggested Ukip is not judged on the same terms as mainstream parties, saying that racism had been “priced in” by critics."
It's unfortunate, though, that the things he cites as not being all the fault of immigration - "getting an appointment at your GP, the fact you aren’t earning enough at work, the fact your child can’t get a house round the corner from you" - absolutely are.
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The electorate seems more keen on a Hanged Parliament right now.Pulpstar said:
Oh Jesus.SouthamObserver said:
My position is what it has been since around August 2010: we are heading for a Hung Parliament.0 -
They were not. Survation does not do that.Millsy said:
Non-2010 voters are scaled down massively in the voting intentionMikeSmithson said:
Don't you understand my analysis. If you take away the non 2010 voters then the overall pool on which the numbers are calculated would a lot smaller and LAB would be up a bit of 2010.Millsy said:"But in the only polling that’s been done, the Survation survey, Labour was holding up pretty well"
Not really, Mike. If the poll is any guide Labour are down 3% on 2010 (not a good year remember) and down 17% on 2005 (Medway).
34.9% of the UKIP vote in the Survation poll final figures were non-2010 voters or said they had voted for a party that did not contest the election.
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That could be a major fail.Millsy said:
Non-2010 voters are scaled down massively in the voting intentionMikeSmithson said:
Don't you understand my analysis. If you take away the non 2010 voters then the overall pool on which the numbers are calculated would a lot smaller and LAB would be up a bit of 2010.Millsy said:"But in the only polling that’s been done, the Survation survey, Labour was holding up pretty well"
Not really, Mike. If the poll is any guide Labour are down 3% on 2010 (not a good year remember) and down 17% on 2005 (Medway).0 -
Mock if you like but what he says about the polish MEP and the mike READ song is the standard PB non Ukip view whether you're labour or Tory...TGOHF said:
Hmm - both Assad and Obama are against ISIS - therefore they are the same by your "everyone is out to get us" logic.isam said:
Well there's your evidenceTGOHF said:Red on purple
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11178984/Chuka-Umunna-on-Ukip-vile-abhorrent-and-un-British.html
"The shadow business secretary suggested Ukip is not judged on the same terms as mainstream parties, saying that racism had been “priced in” by critics."
Everything Umunna says in that interview could and,indeed has, been said by Tories on here this week
There really is no difference. That's why both parties are losing support
Conservative posters are so desperate to knock Ukip they sound just like right on PC labour empty suits... Who's the man and who's the pig?0 -
I think at this stage, I'd expect something like Con 34%, Lab 31%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 10%, Others 12%.TGOHF said:
Could be a disappointing night for everyone next May - Con stay static, LDs lose a few, Lab gain a few but lost some to the SNP , Kippers get a decent vote share but not many MPs and lose Roch and Strood back to Con. SNP and the pro Brit Ulster parties (if they do a pact) may be happy.Sean_F said:
Labour doesn't look as though it's heading for a win, next year.Yorkcity said:
You will be filling your boots then I presume on a Conservative majority at 4/1 orSouthamObserver said:
Labour is opposing. But its message - or what it is passing off as a message - lacks any credibility, as does its leader. The Labour strategy is to Not Be The Tories and, to a lesser extent, Not To Be The LibDems. That might work with a Coalition in a three party system - in fact, it probably was working for a while during this Parliament. But it does not work when there is a fourth party, or four and a half, if you include the Greens.antifrank said:It's quite remarkable that Labour are such long odds in a seat which they held until 2010. I don't completely exclude the possibility that they'll win (and accordingly have made sure that when appropriate I have laid UKIP rather than backed the Conservatives). I don't subscribe to any theory of opposition that involves the Opposition not, you know, opposing.
Ed Miliband is in a league of his own as the worst leader of a major political party we have seen in this country for decades. And that includes Foot, IDS and Hague. The only good thing he has done is put in place a system for electing Labour party leaders which makes it harder for someone like him to ever be in charge again.
Conservative most seats at 5/4 ?
Can you let me know your position, so I an avoid it like the plague.
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The only strategy is to be honest regarding the debt and deficit and how it will be addressed in the next 5 years after the GE, no party is doing that.SouthamObserver said:
My position is what it has been since around August 2010: we are heading for a Hung Parliament. Good luck if you want to get against that. Labour will win some seats next time round because We Are Not The Tories will work in certain parts of the country. But what a barren strategy it is, built on the back of a policy vacuum and no coherent critique of this thoroughly depressing government.Yorkcity said:
You will be filling your boots then I presume on a Conservative majority at 4/1 orSouthamObserver said:
Labour is opposing. But its message - or what it is passing off as a message - lacks any credibility, as does its leader. The Labour strategy is to Not Be The Tories and, to a lesser extent, Not To Be The LibDems. That might work with a Coalition in a three party system - in fact, it probably was working for a while during this Parliament. But it does not work when there is a fourth party, or four and a half, if you include the Greens.antifrank said:It's quite remarkable that Labour are such long odds in a seat which they held until 2010. I don't completely exclude the possibility that they'll win (and accordingly have made sure that when appropriate I have laid UKIP rather than backed the Conservatives). I don't subscribe to any theory of opposition that involves the Opposition not, you know, opposing.
Ed Miliband is in a league of his own as the worst leader of a major political party we have seen in this country for decades. And that includes Foot, IDS and Hague. The only good thing he has done is put in place a system for electing Labour party leaders which makes it harder for someone like him to ever be in charge again.
Conservative most seats at 5/4 ?
Can you let me know your position, so I can avoid it like the plague.
However I have to agree with you that no overall majority at 10/11 looks better that a labour majority at 15/8.
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Grammar Schoolgirl and Birmingham University & Law School in London, is she a do as I do Labour candidate or do as the party says, close them down...
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/labour-challenger-hoping-to-give-8393/
Worked at Dept For Education, as a what? NUS hack at Uni, but useful background to have. Quite a good choice by Labour, local girl made good.0 -
I love how so many of these Labouroids who oppose selective education for other people benefited from it themselves.dr_spyn said:Grammar Schoolgirl and Birmingham University & Law School in London, is she a do as I do Labour candidate or do as the party says, close them down...
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/labour-challenger-hoping-to-give-8393/
Worked at Dept For Education, as a what? NUS hack at Uni, but useful background to have. Quite a good choice by Labour, local girl made good.0 -
THAT !!!!! is Britain's Barak Obama!!!!! ROTGLTheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP should be wise not to attack Britain's Barack Obama.TGOHF said:Red on purple
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11178984/Chuka-Umunna-on-Ukip-vile-abhorrent-and-un-British.html
"The shadow business secretary suggested Ukip is not judged on the same terms as mainstream parties, saying that racism had been “priced in” by critics."
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What are people predictions for the LD's in London next year?
I would hazard to guess;
Sutton and Cheam - Con GAIN
Carshalton and Wallington - Con GAIN
Twickenham - LD HOLD
Kingston and Surbiton - LD HOLD
Hornsey and Wood Green - Lab GAIN
Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Lab GAIN
Brent Central - Lab GAIN
Could be a rough night for the Yellow's in the capital...0 -
Morning all
I've no information on what's happening in R&S but election campaigning works on many levels and it isn't always about how many activists you have on any particular day. Oddly enough, if too many turn up, you get into the law of diminishing returns in terms of the logistics. What you need is a solid reliable number coming out day after day around whom you can plan.
The Conservatives don't as yet have a candidate and while I may be in a minority of one (not for the first or last time) on this I have to say I'm opposed to primaries.
We don't have the same method of voter registration as exists in the US and it strikes me as daft to allow your opponents (both inside and outside the Party) to choose your candidate. Look at what's happened in the US where established Congressmen and Senators have been ousted not by the electorate by a cadre within their own Party who have got allies registered to enable them to participate in the primary.
Imagine if Mourinho sent Wenger or van Gaal or whoever their squad and asked them to pick his team. In essence, that's an open primary. By all means let the membership of the Party pick the candidate and that's what happens in most parties though that's not risk free for incumbents by any means but if you go down the open primary route you run the risk of your opponents seeing the possibility of picking the candidate least likely to win or (as is the case in R&S) you put up two (of your own choosing) identikit candidates with such similar views that if they were men it would be a choice between John Jackson and Jack Johnson.
Now, what would be really interesting would be an Ashcroft poll showing UKIP leading, Labour second and the Conservatives third - that might cause a ripple or two on here.0 -
Agree with all of that. 2015 is likely to be the None of the Above election. Hopefully, it will also mark the beginning of the end of FPTP. The pressure for change will not begin in Parliament, of course; but with a bit of luck the British public might begin to realise just how dysfunctional the present system has become and will begin to demand reform.Yorkcity said:
The only strategy is to be honest regarding the debt and deficit and how it will be addressed in the next 5 years after the GE, no party is doing that.SouthamObserver said:
My position is what it has been since around August 2010: we are heading for a Hung Parliament. Good luck if you want to get against that. Labour will win some seats next time round because We Are Not The Tories will work in certain parts of the country. But what a barren strategy it is, built on the back of a policy vacuum and no coherent critique of this thoroughly depressing government.Yorkcity said:
You will be filling your boots then I presume on a Conservative majority at 4/1 orSouthamObserver said:
Labour is opposing. But its message - or what it is passing off as a message - lacks any credibility, as does its leader. The Labour strategy is to Not Be The Tories and, to a lesser extent, Not To Be The LibDems. That might work with a Coalition in a three party system - in fact, it probably was working for a while during this Parliament. But it does not work when there is a fourth party, or four and a half, if you include the Greens.antifrank said:It's quite remarkable that Labour are such long odds in a seat which they held until 2010. I don't completely exclude the possibility that they'll win (and accordingly have made sure that when appropriate I have laid UKIP rather than backed the Conservatives). I don't subscribe to any theory of opposition that involves the Opposition not, you know, opposing.
Ed Miliband is in a league of his own as the worst leader of a major political party we have seen in this country for decades. And that includes Foot, IDS and Hague. The only good thing he has done is put in place a system for electing Labour party leaders which makes it harder for someone like him to ever be in charge again.
Conservative most seats at 5/4 ?
Can you let me know your position, so I can avoid it like the plague.
However I have to agree with you that no overall majority at 10/11 looks better that a labour majority at 15/8.
I
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You are so keen to show the Kippers as "different" - yet...isam said:
Mock if you like but what he says about the polish MEP and the mike READ song is the standard PB non Ukip view whether you're labour or Tory...TGOHF said:
Hmm - both Assad and Obama are against ISIS - therefore they are the same by your "everyone is out to get us" logic.isam said:
Well there's your evidenceTGOHF said:Red on purple
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11178984/Chuka-Umunna-on-Ukip-vile-abhorrent-and-un-British.html
"The shadow business secretary suggested Ukip is not judged on the same terms as mainstream parties, saying that racism had been “priced in” by critics."
Everything Umunna says in that interview could and,indeed has, been said by Tories on here this week
There really is no difference. That's why both parties are losing support
Conservative posters are so desperate to knock Ukip they sound just like right on PC labour empty suits... Who's the man and who's the pig?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/21/nigel-farage-fined-failure-declare-free-office-space
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@Bond_James_Bond always fun to listen to them spin their way out that.
"our treasured NHS". Looks as she is playing Four Kentish Women card: I grew up when money was tight, all we could afford was a cardboard box in middle of t'road.
http://www.naushabahkhan.org.uk/why_i_am_fighting_this_election0 -
Brent Central, certain Labour gainAllyPally_Rob said:What are people predictions for the LD's in London next year?
I would hazard to guess;
Sutton and Cheam - Con GAIN
Carshalton and Wallington - Con GAIN
Twickenham - LD HOLD
Kingston and Surbiton - LD HOLD
Hornsey and Wood Green - Lab GAIN
Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Lab GAIN
Brent Central - Lab GAIN
Could be a rough night for the Yellow's in the capital...
Horsey & Wood Green probable Labour gain
Kingston & Surbiton, probable Conservative gain.
The rest should be holds.
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'Banks of computers', trousering allowances not expenses etcTGOHF said:
You are so keen to show the Kippers as "different" - yet...isam said:
Mock if you like but what he says about the polish MEP and the mike READ song is the standard PB non Ukip view whether you're labour or Tory...TGOHF said:
Hmm - both Assad and Obama are against ISIS - therefore they are the same by your "everyone is out to get us" logic.isam said:
Well there's your evidenceTGOHF said:Red on purple
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11178984/Chuka-Umunna-on-Ukip-vile-abhorrent-and-un-British.html
"The shadow business secretary suggested Ukip is not judged on the same terms as mainstream parties, saying that racism had been “priced in” by critics."
Everything Umunna says in that interview could and,indeed has, been said by Tories on here this week
There really is no difference. That's why both parties are losing support
Conservative posters are so desperate to knock Ukip they sound just like right on PC labour empty suits... Who's the man and who's the pig?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/21/nigel-farage-fined-failure-declare-free-office-space
Just a bit of fun, as Nigel would say.0 -
makes a good speech, turns out to be mediocre in office? sounds plausible to meMikeK said:
THAT !!!!! is Britain's Barak Obama!!!!! ROTGLTheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP should be wise not to attack Britain's Barack Obama.TGOHF said:Red on purple
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11178984/Chuka-Umunna-on-Ukip-vile-abhorrent-and-un-British.html
"The shadow business secretary suggested Ukip is not judged on the same terms as mainstream parties, saying that racism had been “priced in” by critics."
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Just heard Dreadlock Holiday by 10cc on the radio. I'm pretty sure they managed it without a Readesque accent.0
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Chuka went into full on rant mode with Ian Dale last night - it's worth listening to if you get the chance.Bond_James_Bond said:
To my discomfiture I find myself agreeing with public schoolboy race huckster Umunna about something.TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP should be wise not to attack Britain's Barack Obama.TGOHF said:Red on purple
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11178984/Chuka-Umunna-on-Ukip-vile-abhorrent-and-un-British.html
"The shadow business secretary suggested Ukip is not judged on the same terms as mainstream parties, saying that racism had been “priced in” by critics."
It's unfortunate, though, that the things he cites as not being all the fault of immigration - "getting an appointment at your GP, the fact you aren’t earning enough at work, the fact your child can’t get a house round the corner from you" - absolutely are.0 -
Hughes will hold Bermondsey. Been the MP for 30 years.AllyPally_Rob said:What are people predictions for the LD's in London next year?
I would hazard to guess;
Sutton and Cheam - Con GAIN
Carshalton and Wallington - Con GAIN
Twickenham - LD HOLD
Kingston and Surbiton - LD HOLD
Hornsey and Wood Green - Lab GAIN
Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Lab GAIN
Brent Central - Lab GAIN
Could be a rough night for the Yellow's in the capital...
Last marginal poll had that by a whisker.... and then Ed gave his conference speech, so it's surely a short neck rather than a nose now? Isn't Sutton a comfortable hold as well?
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Hughes will hold Bermondsey. Been the MP for 30 years.AllyPally_Rob said:What are people predictions for the LD's in London next year?
I would hazard to guess;
Sutton and Cheam - Con GAIN
Carshalton and Wallington - Con GAIN
Twickenham - LD HOLD
Kingston and Surbiton - LD HOLD
Hornsey and Wood Green - Lab GAIN
Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Lab GAIN
Brent Central - Lab GAIN
Could be a rough night for the Yellow's in the capital...
Last marginal poll had that by a whisker.... and then Ed gave his conference speech, so it's surely a short neck rather than a nose now? Isn't Sutton a comfortable hold as well?
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Policy wise Ukip and attitude wise Ukip are very different. Although it isn't the fact they are different that makes me inclined to support them, if the other parties genuinely agreed with them if be happy we were all the sameTGOHF said:
You are so keen to show the Kippers as "different" - yet...isam said:
Mock if you like but what he says about the polish MEP and the mike READ song is the standard PB non Ukip view whether you're labour or Tory...TGOHF said:
Hmm - both Assad and Obama are against ISIS - therefore they are the same by your "everyone is out to get us" logic.isam said:
Well there's your evidenceTGOHF said:Red on purple
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11178984/Chuka-Umunna-on-Ukip-vile-abhorrent-and-un-British.html
"The shadow business secretary suggested Ukip is not judged on the same terms as mainstream parties, saying that racism had been “priced in” by critics."
Everything Umunna says in that interview could and,indeed has, been said by Tories on here this week
There really is no difference. That's why both parties are losing support
Conservative posters are so desperate to knock Ukip they sound just like right on PC labour empty suits... Who's the man and who's the pig?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/21/nigel-farage-fined-failure-declare-free-office-space
I don't think i have ever justified supporting them because they were somehow "different" anyway, you are making that up.
The truth is that a labour empty suit spouts the kind of right on crap that conservatives would usually hammer him for, only they now say it themselves because they are obsessed with trying to rubbish Ukip, so they end up agreeing with him.
This is what happens when you abandon independent critical thinking
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Umunna is a shiny haircut with shiny teeth in a shiny suit.
As a rightie I very much hope Labour make him leader if and when Redward fails.0 -
Playing the Race Card against UKIP for all it's worth, is just what the Lab/Lib/Con will do in the run up to the election. They will lie, distort and even bring in the law, to try to crush UKIP's election chances. Pbers must realise that UKIP coming anywhere near power, will mean the end of the PC world we are all forced to live in now.Socrates said:
I can't remember when Chukka Umunna criticised the racism of Diane Abbott ("white people love to play divide and rule", "I'm not going to comment about whether West Indian mothers love their children more"), or called the 9/11 deniers and terrorists in Labour's EP grouping "abhorrent".TGOHF said:Red on purple
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11178984/Chuka-Umunna-on-Ukip-vile-abhorrent-and-un-British.html
"The shadow business secretary suggested Ukip is not judged on the same terms as mainstream parties, saying that racism had been “priced in” by critics."
Also, I note this comment: "the kind of things you hear people saying about eastern Europeans these days is exactly the kinds of things they were saying about black and Asian people when they first arrived in this country."
Really? When? I've heard plenty of criticism about European immigration, but I don't think I've ever heard people make ethnic slurs about Poles and Lithuanians. Can Chukka Umunna provide any evidence of these claims? Or is he just making up racial prejudice in an effort to smear UKIP?
It's very sad to see someone like Chukka Umunna, who has a lot going for him, sinking into playing the race card.0 -
25% of Britains nuclear plants are off-line, so that skews the figures somewhat.MikeSmithson said:Wind power generated more than nuclear yesterday.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29715796
'The energy network operator said it was caused by a combination of high winds and faults in nuclear plants.'0 -
Really???????JonnyJimmy said:Just heard Dreadlock Holiday by 10cc on the radio. I'm pretty sure they managed it without a Readesque accent.
I'd listen to it again if I were you
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And there is actually a Labour --> Tory net switch! (not statistically significant but interesting.).0
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Since Dreadlock Holiday is a story of a white man visiting the Caribbean, it's hardly surprising that parts of the song are sung with a white man impersonating Jamaican accents.0
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'Infamy! Infamy! They've all got it in for me!' - MrK, were you Kenneth Williams in another life?MikeK said:
Playing the Race Card against UKIP for all it's worth, is just what the Lab/Lib/Con will do in the run up to the election. They will lie, distort and even bring in the law, to try to crush UKIP's election chances. Pbers must realise that UKIP coming anywhere near power, will mean the end of the PC world we are all forced to live in now.Socrates said:
I can't remember when Chukka Umunna criticised the racism of Diane Abbott ("white people love to play divide and rule", "I'm not going to comment about whether West Indian mothers love their children more"), or called the 9/11 deniers and terrorists in Labour's EP grouping "abhorrent".TGOHF said:Red on purple
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11178984/Chuka-Umunna-on-Ukip-vile-abhorrent-and-un-British.html
"The shadow business secretary suggested Ukip is not judged on the same terms as mainstream parties, saying that racism had been “priced in” by critics."
Also, I note this comment: "the kind of things you hear people saying about eastern Europeans these days is exactly the kinds of things they were saying about black and Asian people when they first arrived in this country."
Really? When? I've heard plenty of criticism about European immigration, but I don't think I've ever heard people make ethnic slurs about Poles and Lithuanians. Can Chukka Umunna provide any evidence of these claims? Or is he just making up racial prejudice in an effort to smear UKIP?
It's very sad to see someone like Chukka Umunna, who has a lot going for him, sinking into playing the race card.0 -
Most Conservative voters aren't PC. Using PC arguments against UKIP therefore grates with a lot of them.isam said:
Policy wise Ukip and attitude wise Ukip are very different. Although it isn't the fact they are different that makes me inclined to support them, if the other parties genuinely agreed with them if be happy we were all the sameTGOHF said:
You are so keen to show the Kippers as "different" - yet...isam said:
Mock if you like but what he says about the polish MEP and the mike READ song is the standard PB non Ukip view whether you're labour or Tory...TGOHF said:
Hmm - both Assad and Obama are against ISIS - therefore they are the same by your "everyone is out to get us" logic.isam said:
Well there's your evidenceTGOHF said:Red on purple
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11178984/Chuka-Umunna-on-Ukip-vile-abhorrent-and-un-British.html
"The shadow business secretary suggested Ukip is not judged on the same terms as mainstream parties, saying that racism had been “priced in” by critics."
Everything Umunna says in that interview could and,indeed has, been said by Tories on here this week
There really is no difference. That's why both parties are losing support
Conservative posters are so desperate to knock Ukip they sound just like right on PC labour empty suits... Who's the man and who's the pig?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/21/nigel-farage-fined-failure-declare-free-office-space
I don't think i have ever justified supporting them because they were somehow "different" anyway, you are making that up.
The truth is that a labour empty suit spouts the kind of right on crap that conservatives would usually hammer him for, only they now say it themselves because they are obsessed with trying to rubbish Ukip, so they end up agreeing with him.
This is what happens when you abandon independent critical thinking
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@rosschawkins: Mike Read withdraws his UKIP Calypso "I am so sorry that the song unintentionally caused offence"0
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Only a 1,608 majority in Sutton (according to Wikipedia at least) so I'd expect that to go Blue with some ease.chestnut said:
Hughes will hold Bermondsey. Been the MP for 30 years.AllyPally_Rob said:What are people predictions for the LD's in London next year?
I would hazard to guess;
Sutton and Cheam - Con GAIN
Carshalton and Wallington - Con GAIN
Twickenham - LD HOLD
Kingston and Surbiton - LD HOLD
Hornsey and Wood Green - Lab GAIN
Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Lab GAIN
Brent Central - Lab GAIN
Could be a rough night for the Yellow's in the capital...
Last marginal poll had that by a whisker.... and then Ed gave his conference speech, so it's surely a short neck rather than a nose now? Isn't Sutton a comfortable hold as well?
Bermondsey is the kind of constituency that should be Labour but Hughes has held on through a mix of personal votes and the LD's being perceived to the left of Labour till 2010. The latter isn't the case anymore so I think it could easily fall to the Reds.0 -
Just a "bit of fun".Scott_P said:@rosschawkins: Mike Read withdraws his UKIP Calypso "I am so sorry that the song unintentionally caused offence"
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2 retiring and John Thurso not yet reselected? Also Sir Robert Smith may change his mind.MarkSenior said:
Do you actually do any research before you post rubbish on here ? Who are the " loads " of LD Scots MPs standing down . I think it is just 2 , Malcolm Bruce and Ming .Quincel said:
Antifrank has written about this in the past more cogently than I, but put bluntly:rottenborough said:
This is interesting potential bet. By my reckoning LibDems would need to lose 5 to SNP (if not touching Labour). That seems steep given the strong personal factors in many of their seats. Which ones do you see as more likely to fall?Alistair said:The Ladbrokes over/under on SNP seats is 10.5
Over: 1.72
Under: 2.1
The Lib Dems suffered an apocalypse at the Holyrood election. I know I've cautioned against trying ot extrapolate Holyrood behaviour to Westminster elections but a Lib Dem apocalyse in Scotland for the GE would probably give the SNP enough seats to go over 10.5 even without touching Labour.
I'm tempted.
1. Loads of LD Scots MPs are standing down
2. You simply can't hols 20% of the seats on 7% of the vote. The numbers don't add up.
Instead of saying which ones will fall, I'll name the seats I think are safe:
Orkney and Shetlands
Ross, Skye, and Lochaber
A couple of others are holdable, but I'd be shocked if the LD's held more than 5 Scottish seats on 8% or less of the vote.
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It's also a song made for commercial/"artistic" reasons; unlike Mike Read's UKIP calypso, which was made to promote a political party and, among other things, focuses on illegal immigration. Not that the Read ditty is racist. It's just utterly crap and totally crass.antifrank said:Since Dreadlock Holiday is a story of a white man visiting the Caribbean, it's hardly surprising that parts of the song are sung with a white man impersonating Jamaican accents.
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Wonder if anyone was really, genuinely offended. He should have apologised for it being shit, thoughScott_P said:@rosschawkins: Mike Read withdraws his UKIP Calypso "I am so sorry that the song unintentionally caused offence"
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and for disappointing the Saturday superstore generation by blowing his cool image for everdugarbandier said:
Wonder if anyone was really, genuinely offended. He should have apologised for it being shit, thoughScott_P said:@rosschawkins: Mike Read withdraws his UKIP Calypso "I am so sorry that the song unintentionally caused offence"
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I reckon anyone who appreciates a good calypso tune was offended.dugarbandier said:
Wonder if anyone was really, genuinely offended. He should have apologised for it being shit, thoughScott_P said:@rosschawkins: Mike Read withdraws his UKIP Calypso "I am so sorry that the song unintentionally caused offence"
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Well, Ashcroft's marginals poll suggested Tom Brake and Paul Burstow would increase their majorities in C&W and S&C respectively and look at the local election results for Sutton this year (increased LD majority and ask Timmo about that).AllyPally_Rob said:What are people predictions for the LD's in London next year?
I would hazard to guess;
Sutton and Cheam - Con GAIN
Carshalton and Wallington - Con GAIN
Twickenham - LD HOLD
Kingston and Surbiton - LD HOLD
Hornsey and Wood Green - Lab GAIN
Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Lab GAIN
Brent Central - Lab GAIN
Could be a rough night for the Yellow's in the capital...
K&S - very tight indeed, Tudor last week was a good result for the LDs in a Ward they have never won even when sweeping Kingston. Force me to have a bet with your money and I'd back an LD hold but it's the less likely outcome.
H&WG: Unlikely though the local results weren't too bad. A fair result in the recent Woodside by-election (but that's all).
B&OS: Simon defied the odds in 1997 and may do so again. It'll be very hard for his successor as LD candidate as Simon has a huge personal vote.
Brent Central: Not looking good at all - LAB gain.
Twickenham: Boris was making mischief about this last week and I think the Conservatives believe they have a sniff here. Good set of local election results for them in Richmond but that didn't translate last time round and Vince has a strong personal vote.
Of far more interest are the Conservative losses next year - it's possible all the gains from Labour in 2010 will be reversed - seats like Brentford & Isleworth look likely LAB gains but what about Ilford North ? I can't see any UKIP gains in London.
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point takenSouthamObserver said:
I reckon anyone who appreciates a good calypso tune was offended.dugarbandier said:
Wonder if anyone was really, genuinely offended. He should have apologised for it being shit, thoughScott_P said:@rosschawkins: Mike Read withdraws his UKIP Calypso "I am so sorry that the song unintentionally caused offence"
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Dearie me - wouldn't trust the Kippers to run a whelk stall - one farce after another.Scott_P said:@rosschawkins: Mike Read withdraws his UKIP Calypso "I am so sorry that the song unintentionally caused offence"
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As you are clearly tone-deaf, try listening to the words? It's a song about how dem darkies will mug you soon as look at you, unless you can beguile the lovable simpletons by pretending to like cricket and Jamaica.JonnyJimmy said:Just heard Dreadlock Holiday by 10cc on the radio. I'm pretty sure they managed it without a Readesque accent.
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In Sutton we have the council results in May showing a landslide Lib Dem win and Lord Ashcroft's constituency poll showing a substantial swing from Con to Lib Dem , what local knowledge makes you think it will go Blue at all let alone with some ease ?AllyPally_Rob said:
Only a 1,608 majority in Sutton (according to Wikipedia at least) so I'd expect that to go Blue with some ease.chestnut said:
Hughes will hold Bermondsey. Been the MP for 30 years.AllyPally_Rob said:What are people predictions for the LD's in London next year?
I would hazard to guess;
Sutton and Cheam - Con GAIN
Carshalton and Wallington - Con GAIN
Twickenham - LD HOLD
Kingston and Surbiton - LD HOLD
Hornsey and Wood Green - Lab GAIN
Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Lab GAIN
Brent Central - Lab GAIN
Could be a rough night for the Yellow's in the capital...
Last marginal poll had that by a whisker.... and then Ed gave his conference speech, so it's surely a short neck rather than a nose now? Isn't Sutton a comfortable hold as well?
Bermondsey is the kind of constituency that should be Labour but Hughes has held on through a mix of personal votes and the LD's being perceived to the left of Labour till 2010. The latter isn't the case anymore so I think it could easily fall to the Reds.
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Or you could say it is about a white man being mugged in the Caribbean and using racial stereotypes in a very negative way... A product of its time maybeantifrank said:Since Dreadlock Holiday is a story of a white man visiting the Caribbean, it's hardly surprising that parts of the song are sung with a white man impersonating Jamaican accents.
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http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Sutton-Cheam-June-2014-Full-tables.pdf
Sutton and Cheam = Lib Dem Hold.0 -
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 5m
Quote of #GF10: @LyntonKCrosby to @DouglasCarswell; "Hey Douglas what do you think of that Pole then? Come on, you're all for transparency?"0 -
I'm clumsily alluding to the political attack line about the debt.weejonnie said:
The Government has sold off substantial tranches of Lloyds bank shares. RBS is downsizing to raise capital and Northern Rock was sold off (the good part) whilst the bad part is doing its best to get as much as it can from the loans it still has on the books (there was a recent report about someone who re-mortgaged from Northern Rock only to find that the personal loan of the 125% mortgage had its interest increased substantially).
All banks have had to pay fees for the use of Government lines of credit - it has been a nice little earner.
1) The opposition never mention that the bank debts were nationalised and omit them fromm discussion. Having forgotten the deficit and immigration in the leaders speech, have they now forgotten the bank runs and debts?
2) Using the debt measure that includes the banks actually allows Dave to legitimately claim debt is down compared to GDP in 2010.0 -
So far as the story of the song is concerned, I'd agree with that. But complaining about the accent rather than the lyrics is to strain at a gnat having swallowed a camel.isam said:
Or you could say it is about a white man being mugged in the Caribbean and using racial stereotypes in a very negative way... A product of its time maybeantifrank said:Since Dreadlock Holiday is a story of a white man visiting the Caribbean, it's hardly surprising that parts of the song are sung with a white man impersonating Jamaican accents.
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The Daily Rant is on the warpath again today.
'Ed Miliband's cunning plan is for health to be Labour's big topic in the General Election. They might want to rethink given what happened in the Commons yesterday, writes QUENTIN LETTS'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2802364/hunt-left-burnham-peaky-tragic-frown-face-quentin-letts-sees-labour-health-spokesman-squirming.html0 -
Looking at the YouGov averages, perhaps the defections to UKIP, resulted in Con -2, Lab -1 and UKIP +3, and Miliband's relatively poor Conference resulted in Lab -2, Con nc, such that the Labour lead with YouGov is now about 1 point down on July.Millsy said:When does the YouGov polling get worrying for Labour? And how far will the party fall? They are averaging less than 34% so far in October - down from 39% this time last year and up until February this year. The trend is definitely not their friend!
The Tories aren't doing any better but at least they are stagnant at around 32%/33%.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/67mgjr0dbp/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Voting-Trends-with-UKIP-201014.pdf
It's a bit problematic to look at the monthly average for October to date, as the beginning of October was the period of the Conservative conference bounce, which later subsided.
Would be interesting to have monthly aggregates for all the YouGov data.0 -
I'm not complaining about anything, just surprised that someone used it as an example of a song not being sung in a Jamaican accent, when it is!antifrank said:
So far as the story of the song is concerned, I'd agree with that. But complaining about the accent rather than the lyrics is to strain at a gnat having swallowed a camel.isam said:
Or you could say it is about a white man being mugged in the Caribbean and using racial stereotypes in a very negative way... A product of its time maybeantifrank said:Since Dreadlock Holiday is a story of a white man visiting the Caribbean, it's hardly surprising that parts of the song are sung with a white man impersonating Jamaican accents.
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It's unlikely Ilford North will be lost, as the Conservatives outpolled Labour in May. I'd be confident that the Conservatives will hold Harrow East and Finchley.stodge said:
Well, Ashcroft's marginals poll suggested Tom Brake and Paul Burstow would increase their majorities in C&W and S&C respectively and look at the local election results for Sutton this year (increased LD majority and ask Timmo about that).AllyPally_Rob said:What are people predictions for the LD's in London next year?
I would hazard to guess;
Sutton and Cheam - Con GAIN
Carshalton and Wallington - Con GAIN
Twickenham - LD HOLD
Kingston and Surbiton - LD HOLD
Hornsey and Wood Green - Lab GAIN
Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Lab GAIN
Brent Central - Lab GAIN
Could be a rough night for the Yellow's in the capital...
K&S - very tight indeed, Tudor last week was a good result for the LDs in a Ward they have never won even when sweeping Kingston. Force me to have a bet with your money and I'd back an LD hold but it's the less likely outcome.
H&WG: Unlikely though the local results weren't too bad. A fair result in the recent Woodside by-election (but that's all).
B&OS: Simon defied the odds in 1997 and may do so again. It'll be very hard for his successor as LD candidate as Simon has a huge personal vote.
Brent Central: Not looking good at all - LAB gain.
Twickenham: Boris was making mischief about this last week and I think the Conservatives believe they have a sniff here. Good set of local election results for them in Richmond but that didn't translate last time round and Vince has a strong personal vote.
Of far more interest are the Conservative losses next year - it's possible all the gains from Labour in 2010 will be reversed - seats like Brentford & Isleworth look likely LAB gains but what about Ilford North ? I can't see any UKIP gains in London.
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My tone deafness doesn't make me hear words like "them" not pronounced as "dem". There are lines in the song where he quotes Jamaicans, saying "me" instead of "my", but that's hardly the same thing.Ishmael_X said:
As you are clearly tone-deaf, try listening to the words? It's a song about how dem darkies will mug you soon as look at you, unless you can beguile the lovable simpletons by pretending to like cricket and Jamaica.JonnyJimmy said:Just heard Dreadlock Holiday by 10cc on the radio. I'm pretty sure they managed it without a Readesque accent.
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The Conservatives should hold Battersea easily, as well.0
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0
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The chorus is an englishman doing an impression of a Jamaican to avoid being muggedJonnyJimmy said:
My tone deafness doesn't make me hear words like "them" not pronounced as "dem". There are lines in the song where he quotes Jamaicans, saying "me" instead of "my", but that's hardly the same thing.Ishmael_X said:
As you are clearly tone-deaf, try listening to the words? It's a song about how dem darkies will mug you soon as look at you, unless you can beguile the lovable simpletons by pretending to like cricket and Jamaica.JonnyJimmy said:Just heard Dreadlock Holiday by 10cc on the radio. I'm pretty sure they managed it without a Readesque accent.
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@wallaceme: This week UKIP released a calypso and allied with a party that claims Jews run a "holocaust industry". Guess which they've apologised for.0
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Where Woolf, There Woolf, Can't chose Woolf.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29719090
new whitehall farce.0 -
Ooh someone wants 80 for £90 on labour in Rochester... Might lay off0
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but as mentioned on the previous thread, the tories are allied with plenty of fruitcakes, loonies and holocaust deniers in the EU parliament. UKIP only has one, and they seem to have checked carefully that he hasn't said anything too outrageous- all the dirt is on the party chief, I thinkScott_P said:@wallaceme: This week UKIP released a calypso and allied with a party that claims Jews run a "holocaust industry". Guess which they've apologised for.
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The latter was worth £1 million a year in funding, hence the silence.Scott_P said:@wallaceme: This week UKIP released a calypso and allied with a party that claims Jews run a "holocaust industry". Guess which they've apologised for.
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Jamaicans third for nationality of foreign prisoners.Pulpstar said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29715630
£70,000 per foreign prisoner
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It seems dis UKIP song has had an effect
Some folk tink it shows plenty disrespeck
But dems all fools, dem make me mad
Dat liberal elite, it's evil and bad
Tra-la-lee ...
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Butler-Sloss was far and away the better person to lead this enquiry.dr_spyn said:Where Woolf, There Woolf, Can't chose Woolf.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29719090
new whitehall farce.0 -
No local knowledge as I am firmly in North London, however the slim majority and national factors are why I think the blue's will take it. But appreciate the update on local factors including local election results.MarkSenior said:
In Sutton we have the council results in May showing a landslide Lib Dem win and Lord Ashcroft's constituency poll showing a substantial swing from Con to Lib Dem , what local knowledge makes you think it will go Blue at all let alone with some ease ?AllyPally_Rob said:
Only a 1,608 majority in Sutton (according to Wikipedia at least) so I'd expect that to go Blue with some ease.chestnut said:
Hughes will hold Bermondsey. Been the MP for 30 years.AllyPally_Rob said:What are people predictions for the LD's in London next year?
I would hazard to guess;
Sutton and Cheam - Con GAIN
Carshalton and Wallington - Con GAIN
Twickenham - LD HOLD
Kingston and Surbiton - LD HOLD
Hornsey and Wood Green - Lab GAIN
Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Lab GAIN
Brent Central - Lab GAIN
Could be a rough night for the Yellow's in the capital...
Last marginal poll had that by a whisker.... and then Ed gave his conference speech, so it's surely a short neck rather than a nose now? Isn't Sutton a comfortable hold as well?
Bermondsey is the kind of constituency that should be Labour but Hughes has held on through a mix of personal votes and the LD's being perceived to the left of Labour till 2010. The latter isn't the case anymore so I think it could easily fall to the Reds.0 -
No, he does the whole thing in a silly voice. Listen to the first two lines.JonnyJimmy said:
My tone deafness doesn't make me hear words like "them" not pronounced as "dem". There are lines in the song where he quotes Jamaicans, saying "me" instead of "my", but that's hardly the same thing.Ishmael_X said:
As you are clearly tone-deaf, try listening to the words? It's a song about how dem darkies will mug you soon as look at you, unless you can beguile the lovable simpletons by pretending to like cricket and Jamaica.JonnyJimmy said:Just heard Dreadlock Holiday by 10cc on the radio. I'm pretty sure they managed it without a Readesque accent.
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got any dirt on Sting? bashing Sting is always good funIshmael_X said:
No, he does the whole thing in a silly voice. Listen to the first two lines.JonnyJimmy said:
My tone deafness doesn't make me hear words like "them" not pronounced as "dem". There are lines in the song where he quotes Jamaicans, saying "me" instead of "my", but that's hardly the same thing.Ishmael_X said:
As you are clearly tone-deaf, try listening to the words? It's a song about how dem darkies will mug you soon as look at you, unless you can beguile the lovable simpletons by pretending to like cricket and Jamaica.JonnyJimmy said:Just heard Dreadlock Holiday by 10cc on the radio. I'm pretty sure they managed it without a Readesque accent.
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careful nowSouthamObserver said:It seems dis UKIP song has had an effect
Some folk tink it shows plenty disrespeck
But dems all fools, dem make me mad
Dat liberal elite, it's evil and bad
Tra-la-lee ...
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Not a sequitur. Research shows that insofar as voters react to candidates at all, they move from "Nice to have a new face" to "They're doing OK, let's give them another go" to "They've been around forever, time for a change". The MP I replaced had been there for 21 years, and lost to a swing that was well above average. I was there for 13 years, and felt my personal vote peaked in 2001, though it's rebounded a bit since I lost (nostalgia burnishes images).chestnut said:
Hughes will hold Bermondsey. Been the MP for 30 years.
As I've also said about Cameron, it's not your fault where you went to school or what sort of family you have; the question is what you do with the experience later. My dad, who went to prep school and Winchester, came out convinced that public schools should be abolished as both divisive and an abnormal preparation for life (didn't stop him voting Tory and Liberal for other reasons).Bond_James_Bond said:
I love how so many of these Labouroids who oppose selective education for other people benefited from it themselves.dr_spyn said:Grammar Schoolgirl and Birmingham University & Law School in London, is she a do as I do Labour candidate or do as the party says, close them down...
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/labour-challenger-hoping-to-give-8393/
Worked at Dept For Education, as a what? NUS hack at Uni, but useful background to have. Quite a good choice by Labour, local girl made good.0 -
In 2011 the seats they lost mostly had SNP in strong second place in 2007. That's not the case for the GE seats. The SNP are often well distant. The Lib Dems are obviously going to lose seats in Scotland - I'm just not sure they are going to lose them to the SNP to allow the SNP to breach 10.5 seats.Sean_F said:
That didn't work out for them in the Scottish Parliamentary elections.Alistair said:
Because the LD vote is going to melt in seats they are not competitive in which will apocalypse their vote share but not necessarily their seat count.Quincel said:
Quite how the LDs are expecting to hold a load of majorities of 4-5k with a vote share of 1/3rd their 2010 performance I'm yet to understand.
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So really the energy equivalent of a polling crossover then?Gadfly said:
Essentially because it was exceptionally windy, and 8 of the UK's 15 nuclear reactors are currently offline.MikeSmithson said:Wind power generated more than nuclear yesterday.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-297157960 -
Southam,
Nice one. The Ukip song is a load of cobblers but it brought the expected reaction in the usual quarters.
I remember Harry Belafonte, and when I sing "Island in the sun" to myself, I always sing "in de sun" even though Harry always sang in perfect English. Should I rip my racist tongue out>
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Lloyds a chunk of the shares have been sold. TSB has been IPO'ed separately. NRAM sold a substantial part of its portfolio and is making good progress in paying down its loan from the Treasury (we'll make a profit in absolute terms). RBS is, to be charitable, a "work in progress".chestnut said:Deficit amnesia seems to have spread to debt.
People seem to have forgotten that the banks' debts have been nationalised.
When exactly are Lloyds, and especially RBS and the remnants of Northern Rock getting denationalised?0 -
I don't think it's a silly voice. It's just supposed to be a Caribbean accent because it's a calypso song.Ishmael_X said:
No, he does the whole thing in a silly voice. Listen to the first two lines.JonnyJimmy said:
My tone deafness doesn't make me hear words like "them" not pronounced as "dem". There are lines in the song where he quotes Jamaicans, saying "me" instead of "my", but that's hardly the same thing.Ishmael_X said:
As you are clearly tone-deaf, try listening to the words? It's a song about how dem darkies will mug you soon as look at you, unless you can beguile the lovable simpletons by pretending to like cricket and Jamaica.JonnyJimmy said:Just heard Dreadlock Holiday by 10cc on the radio. I'm pretty sure they managed it without a Readesque accent.
As LuckyGuy1983 says, the more problematic issue is that it's an awful song.0 -
He does everything in a silly voice. And that's the least of his problems.dugarbandier said:
got any dirt on Sting? bashing Sting is always good funIshmael_X said:
No, he does the whole thing in a silly voice. Listen to the first two lines.JonnyJimmy said:
My tone deafness doesn't make me hear words like "them" not pronounced as "dem". There are lines in the song where he quotes Jamaicans, saying "me" instead of "my", but that's hardly the same thing.Ishmael_X said:
As you are clearly tone-deaf, try listening to the words? It's a song about how dem darkies will mug you soon as look at you, unless you can beguile the lovable simpletons by pretending to like cricket and Jamaica.JonnyJimmy said:Just heard Dreadlock Holiday by 10cc on the radio. I'm pretty sure they managed it without a Readesque accent.
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Not far off what I posted yesterday. I think (atm) Con 35%, Lab 30%, UKIP 12%, Lib Dem 12%, Others 11%.Sean_F said:
I think at this stage, I'd expect something like Con 34%, Lab 31%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 10%, Others 12%.TGOHF said:
Could be a disappointing night for everyone next May - Con stay static, LDs lose a few, Lab gain a few but lost some to the SNP , Kippers get a decent vote share but not many MPs and lose Roch and Strood back to Con. SNP and the pro Brit Ulster parties (if they do a pact) may be happy.Sean_F said:
Labour doesn't look as though it's heading for a win, next year.Yorkcity said:
You will be filling your boots then I presume on a Conservative majority at 4/1 orSouthamObserver said:
Labour is opposing. But its message - or what it is passing off as a message - lacks any credibility, as does its leader. The Labour strategy is to Not Be The Tories and, to a lesser extent, Not To Be The LibDems. That might work with a Coalition in a three party system - in fact, it probably was working for a while during this Parliament. But it does not work when there is a fourth party, or four and a half, if you include the Greens.antifrank said:It's quite remarkable that Labour are such long odds in a seat which they held until 2010. I don't completely exclude the possibility that they'll win (and accordingly have made sure that when appropriate I have laid UKIP rather than backed the Conservatives). I don't subscribe to any theory of opposition that involves the Opposition not, you know, opposing.
Ed Miliband is in a league of his own as the worst leader of a major political party we have seen in this country for decades. And that includes Foot, IDS and Hague. The only good thing he has done is put in place a system for electing Labour party leaders which makes it harder for someone like him to ever be in charge again.
Conservative most seats at 5/4 ?
Can you let me know your position, so I an avoid it like the plague.
I also think the Conservatives may make a small advance to c.320 seats. I'm not convinced they'll lose that many to Labour anymore, particularly once the campaign begins in earnest and the prospect of Ed as PM is staring floating voters in the face. So the gains from the Lib Dems might push them forwards.
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So, £55 per diagnosis of dementia for GPs. Can't see that going wrong ...0
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Continued ... No, I think I will leave my racist tongue intact, and tell my silly brain not to take offence at such trivia. But then I don't ride on the offence bus looking out for things to attack.0
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Places like Glasgow North and North West are going to see crushing drops for LDs. Basically University areas where a lot of first time student voters tried a little Lib Dem and didn't like the resultant taste.antifrank said:
Just how far do you think it's going to melt in seats where they are not competitive?Alistair said:
Because the LD vote is going to melt in seats they are not competitive in which will apocalypse their vote share but not necessarily their seat count.Quincel said:
Quite how the LDs are expecting to hold a load of majorities of 4-5k with a vote share of 1/3rd their 2010 performance I'm yet to understand.0 -
Got a view on Hendon? (Note: haven't researched it)Sean_F said:The Conservatives should hold Battersea easily, as well.
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Disgraceful – I’ve not been so outraged since Julie Andrews sang the 'Sound of Music' – hah, an Austrian nun indeed….!SouthamObserver said:It seems dis UKIP song has had an effect
Some folk tink it shows plenty disrespeck
But dems all fools, dem make me mad
Dat liberal elite, it's evil and bad
Tra-la-lee ...0 -
Thanks Mike, Labour should not be underestimated.
I was scraping the overround bot on Betfair for a while, picking up Labour at odds over 85/1 - i'll be about £2k up on a labour win, not that I expect it to happen.
The current 54/1 is reasonable value.0 -
What accent was OGH thinking in when he wrote the headline for this thread?SimonStClare said:
Disgraceful – I’ve not been so outraged since Julie Andrews sang the 'Sound of Music' – hah, an Austrian nun indeed….!SouthamObserver said:It seems dis UKIP song has had an effect
Some folk tink it shows plenty disrespeck
But dems all fools, dem make me mad
Dat liberal elite, it's evil and bad
Tra-la-lee ...
Kick ass?? Thought police could have him for that0 -
It's in everyones interest to kick this as far down the road as possible.dr_spyn said:Where Woolf, There Woolf, Can't chose Woolf.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29719090
new whitehall farce.
The story won't go away though.0 -
So, Mike Reid has been forced to withdraw his parody tune, following the likes of the BBC stoking the faux outrage, not over it being a terrible tune, but supposedly racist.
However, the BBC still happy to flog this equally terrible comedy in their shop, where Matt Lucas blacks up and puts on a Caribbean accent. Crimes against comedy yes, but racist?
http://www.bbcshop.com/page/search?q=come+fly+with+me0 -
My view on Hendon is that it is a place to be avoided. You could die of boredom there.Casino_Royale said:
Got a view on Hendon? (Note: haven't researched it)Sean_F said:The Conservatives should hold Battersea easily, as well.
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Is Farage going to apologise for pushing it to be #1?Scott_P said:@rosschawkins: Mike Read withdraws his UKIP Calypso "I am so sorry that the song unintentionally caused offence"
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First time student voters in 2010 have moved on now. Even in Scotland. Junior lecturers, research staff still around maybe, but surely not so significant.Alistair said:
Places like Glasgow North and North West are going to see crushing drops for LDs. Basically University areas where a lot of first time student voters tried a little Lib Dem and didn't like the resultant taste.antifrank said:
Just how far do you think it's going to melt in seats where they are not competitive?Alistair said:
Because the LD vote is going to melt in seats they are not competitive in which will apocalypse their vote share but not necessarily their seat count.Quincel said:
Quite how the LDs are expecting to hold a load of majorities of 4-5k with a vote share of 1/3rd their 2010 performance I'm yet to understand.0 -
Dat Julie Andrews, de singin' nunSimonStClare said:
Disgraceful – I’ve not been so outraged since Julie Andrews sang the 'Sound of Music' – hah, an Austrian nun indeed….!SouthamObserver said:It seems dis UKIP song has had an effect
Some folk tink it shows plenty disrespeck
But dems all fools, dem make me mad
Dat liberal elite, it's evil and bad
Tra-la-lee ...
Bad Nazis wanted to stop her fun
Now dem Nazis rule de E-U
Dat ain't no fun for me or for you
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I think Mike Reid and Ukip have achieved their objective - making the objectors look daft.
And another dose of publicity.0 -
I'll stop now.0
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Will upset the animal lovers.isam said:
What accent was OGH thinking in when he wrote the headline for this thread?SimonStClare said:
Disgraceful – I’ve not been so outraged since Julie Andrews sang the 'Sound of Music' – hah, an Austrian nun indeed….!SouthamObserver said:It seems dis UKIP song has had an effect
Some folk tink it shows plenty disrespeck
But dems all fools, dem make me mad
Dat liberal elite, it's evil and bad
Tra-la-lee ...
Kick ass?? Thought police could have him for that
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Good morning, everyone.
Only made it to the end of the first line of the song. Bloody awful assault on the ears.0 -
White only taxi drivers in Rochdale
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/oct/21/rochdale-taxi-firm-white-drivers-on-request0
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
