politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield reviews the battle of May 2nd – the locals
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Or change non voters into voters? Wasn't GE 2010 turnout low in this seat last time?Slackbladder said:
I know, it won't happen! Non voters are non voters.0 -
First defendant in Oxford child rape case takes the stand:
http://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/10314822.First_defendant_takes_to_stand_and_denies_any_part_in_child_sex_ring/0 -
Pulpstar said:
Must be good for UKIP.AndreaParma_82 said:I think Middlesbrough is a bit less white than South Shields.
All wards within SS constituency are 80+% white while in Middlesbrough 2-3 are below it (University less than 60% white)
Phil Woolas can argue that it's better to have 4-5 all white wards next to 2-3 60% White.0 -
You want to win an election Cameron? Take your protection officers to wherever Qatada is poncing off the UK taxpayer,(is he in jail for a few days until some useless Judge let's him out?), stuff him in the back of your car and drive him to Heathrow. Stick him on the first flight to anywhere in mainland Europe.
That evening go on national tv and say 3 words:
'F**k you ECHR!'
Con gain every seat except whatever liberal commie hellhole Primrose Hill is in.
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Ask him to put it back, the thieving toe rag.Socrates said:First defendant in Oxford child rape case takes the stand:
http://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/10314822.First_defendant_takes_to_stand_and_denies_any_part_in_child_sex_ring/0 -
In the Labour Party the local party will have to do what they are told!AndreaParma_82 said:
Icarus, they will need somone "from the town, for the town" :-)
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@MitchellSt: @MSmithsonPB interesting fact, Cameron has now been PM one day longer than Gordon Brown was.0
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Top marks for ingenuity....but this being China, one wonders where the photo-shopping leaves off, and attempts at the suppression of corruption complaints takes over:
http://observers.france24.com/content/20130326-photoshopping-officials-porn-china-blackmailers?
"Stop Photoshopping officials into porn, authorities ask blackmailers."0 -
I wouldn't be so sure in South Shields.....I'd also be wary about tempting 'read across' from other northern cities...South Shields is far from typical:Icarus said:In the Labour Party the local party will have to do what they are told!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/tyne/roots/2003/10/arabontyne.shtml
100 years ago the thriving port South Shields attracted tradesmen and seamen of many nationalities; Yemen, Aden, Somalia, African, Indian and Malaysian.
Foreign seamen had come to South Shields in the 19th Century and were used as cheap labour on the ship, usually as firemen and stokers.
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Icarus said:
In the Labour Party the local party will have to do what they are told!AndreaParma_82 said:
Icarus, they will need somone "from the town, for the town" :-)
because in Socialist prism, the central state always acts in their best interests. Even if the locals don't know it.
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Yes! Qatada wins appeal!
Give it a rest now Home Secretary.0 -
Stick him on the first flight to anywhere in mainland Europe.
Why do the government bother? Every time the Qatada Judgement comes around, its like the coalition issuing a broadcast saying 'we are impotent, vote UKIP'.
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First election leaflet of the County Campaignjust through my door ...... UKIP.
Inter alia they propose to drastically reduce council tax and spending AND spend on services, apparently to the elderly!0 -
Feels much longer.glassfet said:@MitchellSt: @MSmithsonPB interesting fact, Cameron has now been PM one day longer than Gordon Brown was.
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So she should stop trying to do what multiple Labour Home Secretaries failed to do?BenM said:Yes! Qatada wins appeal!
Give it a rest now Home Secretary.
Should they have 'given it a rest' too?
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@taffys
If you grandstand and treat the rule of law without respect, as the Secretary of State for the Home Department has been doing, it is true that you do begin to look ridiculous when it turns out that you are bound by the law of the land. The Qatada issue is a problem of the government's own making: it alone has made his removal an issue of such political importance.0 -
And Labour didn't? This has been going on for years......Life_ina_market_town said:it alone has made his removal an issue of such political importance.
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They did what they were told when David Miliband was being manoeuvred into the seat in the first place!CarlottaVance said:
I wouldn't be so sure in South Shields.....0 -
David miliband leaving parliament = Good - Good riddance to bad rubbish - this man was at the heart of one of the worst governments to represent this country that left it in a mess.
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@CarlottaVance
In fairness, the chosen method of the last Labour government of "dealing" with Qatada was to detain him indefinitely without charge or trial as a "suspected international terrorist" under the provisions of Part 4 of the Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001, until it found that that was incompatible with English constitutional tradition.0 -
In run up of 2010, all North East vacant seats selected local(ish) candidates.
A couple of SpAds were defeated (North West Durham and North Tyneside).
After 2010, they managed to get their SpAd from Islington into Redcar (the one who couldn't get NWD last time).0 -
lest anyone think that Miliband is doing a Profumo and going off to perform modest good works in a spirit of penitence for the failings of the last Labour government, the IRC audit shows that net assets last year stood at more than $127 million (with $27 million of that in cash). It spent close to $364 million last year on its international relief programmes. Meanwhile the net liabilities of the Labour party in 2011 were close to £5.5 million. I know which firm I'd rather work for.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/richardpreston/100209342/a-glance-at-the-finances-of-the-irc-suggests-one-good-reason-for-david-miliband-to-leave-for-new-york/0 -
This Qatada and the Rumanian immigrants 'flood' could be good for a certain party...0
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@journodave: BBC trials a 'radio first' strategy for Question Time - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21955417#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa0
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Is there something we should know early about South Tyneside social services?0
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@rowandavies: Thing about D-Mil that everyone has missed: he could be gunning for a top UN post. @alexevansuk sharp eyed, as ever http://www.globaldashboard.org/2013/03/27/why-would-david-miliband-be-leaving-for-new-york/0
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The Qatada issue is a problem of the government's own making: it alone has made his removal an issue of such political importance.
Agreed. Judges only determine the law based on the legal framework they are given. Getting rid of Qatada would require changes in law the coalition don;t have the will or the support to make. They're impotent, and it is an impotence of their own making.
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I'm warming to the new pope:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21949118
He seems to have captured the spirit of the age, as well as remembering that clerics take a vow of poverty.0 -
@tim,is this the real tim here ?,can you honestly tell me tim that balls won't be any different or spending more ?tim said:@Tykejohnno.
You prefer the higher spending, higher taxing, higher benefit spending one you voted for run
by Ollie Letwin and the chums I realise that.
By the way,a plague on all 3 main party houses,thats how I feel right now and many more feel the same.
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***** BETTING POST *****
In the Euro Elections: Most Votes market, there's a whacking great difference between the two mega bookies' odds on Labour's chances with Ladbrokes going 1.57 (4/7), compared with Hills' 1.91 (10/11) ..... the latter looks like great value.
On the other hand if one completely discounts the Tories' chances in this market, which I certainly do, then there's a nice 8.3% arb to be had by backing Labour at 1.91 with Hills as aforesaid and UKIP with Laddies at 2.50, staking 56.9% and 43.3% respectively.
As ever DYOR.0 -
Central bank governor of Cyprus is called... Panicos:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21953222
Fitting.0 -
@Mr_Eugenides: RT @S8mB: Jesus fcking wept RT @aufidius: There are rumours that actor Hugh Grant may contest @DMiliband's now vacant South Shields seat.0
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@faisalislam: RT @katie_martin_FX: So, neither Lux nor Malta is Cyprus, which was not Greece, or Portugal or Ireland. And Uganda is not Spain. I hope that clears things up.
@faisalislam: RT @MMQWalker: So Malta, Luxembourg *and* Slovenia are not Cyprus. Nothing another Dijsselblooper can't change #crisisback0 -
@faisalislam: I am not Cyprus, and neither is my wife. “@TradeDesk_Steve: *PORTUGAL SAYS CYPRUS IS A UNIQUE CASE”0
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Ah Hugh Grant, that well known working class northerner....0
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If that was true,it would be fun if he stood for labour,it wouldn't surprise me.glassfet said:@Mr_Eugenides: RT @S8mB: Jesus fcking wept RT @aufidius: There are rumours that actor Hugh Grant may contest @DMiliband's now vacant South Shields seat.
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@MirrorJames: Those South Shields candidates in full? @Kevin_Maguire Lab, Andrew Pierce Con, @oflynnexpress UKIP and @DavidWooding LD0
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@antifrank
It is all very well for the latest Bishop of Rome to adopt some austerity in his living arrangements. The contemporary popish church remains a mockery of the community of property found in the Book of Acts, and has declared heretical since the days of John XXII a commitment to the apostolic poverty that ought to characterise the Christian church. As always with Romanism, it is style over substance.0 -
F1: Claire Williams named as deputy principal and long-term successor to Frank (her father):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/21954920
Assuming Kaltenborn's still in place when the succession occurs that would mean that 2 of the team principals would be women.0 -
Not for want of trying:Neil said:
They did what they were told when David Miliband was being manoeuvred into the seat in the first place!CarlottaVance said:
I wouldn't be so sure in South Shields.....
"Clark sought reselection by the South Shields Labour Party in order to contest the 2001 General Election for the seat. However, control of the constituency Party had swung in favour of a vocal group of critics, led by a faction within South Tyneside Council, who feared Clark actually intended to stand down when the General Election was called, thus enabling the Labour Party's National Executive Committee to parachute a favoured candidate into the Constituency[citation needed], historically a safe Labour seat. During the reselection contest Clark vigorously denied the claims and told the Shields Gazette newspaper advising he had every intention of contesting the General Election[citation needed]. In the event, Clark won reselection but only with support of regional trade union barons.
When Prime Minister Blair announced the date of the General Election in 2001, Clark immediately stood down and the Labour Party NEC moved swiftly, New Labour rising star David Miliband was selected to fight the seat.
Within weeks of the Labour Party winning the 2001 General Election, Clark was given a life peerage as Baron Clark of Windermere, of Windermere in the County of Cumbria and now sits in the House of Lords. He was also appointed the paid post of Chairman of the Forestry Commission."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Clark,_Baron_Clark_of_Windermere#2001_general_election_and_resignation0 -
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We could have some fun if the locals set up an Independent Labour candidate, or if HugeAndreaParma_82 said:@Carlotta, it's a by-election now, the Labour shortlist will be decided by a NEC panel in London.
EgoGrant stands
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If Hugh Grant were to enter Parliament, would he be the first MP who had played at being Prime Minister before he actually got the job?0
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At least South Shields will decide the candidate - unlike, if I read the Wiki article correctly, in the original selection of Miliband.AndreaParma_82 said:@Carlotta, it's a by-election now, the Labour shortlist will be decided by a NEC panel in London.
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How much would Hugh Grant poll standing as an Independent in South Shields?0
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It's an interesting question. He could easily play David Miliband in a movie, with the exception that he actually seems to get on with EdAndreaParma_82 said:How much would Hugh Grant poll standing as an Independent in South Shields?
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What do you think David and Ed Miliband played in their back garden when they were growing up. Back then it was easier for David to insist he be PM.antifrank said:would he be the first MP who had played at being Prime Minister before he actually got the job?
tim will be along shortly to say that Cameron is the first MP to play at being Prime Minister while Prime Minister
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Indeed, their former MP, now Lord, effectively disenfranchised them by standing down after the GE was called depriving them of a vote.Neil said:
I wonder if the NEC will send them a "no locals" short list?
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Now that'd be a fun thread for a quiet day - I'd have Simon Pegg to play Tim Farron. Who'd play EdM? I'm struggling here...glassfet said:
It's an interesting question. He could easily play David Miliband in a movieAndreaParma_82 said:How much would Hugh Grant poll standing as an Independent in South Shields?
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And I agree - the circumstances are not there for a win even if everything were to fall in their favour (now I've said that they probably will win at that), but a decent percentage from a starting point of zero in a safe seat? Still of use to UKIP as they try to build on their public acceptance breakthrough in the last 12 months, even if electorally they've not managed to breakthrough yet and probably won't at Westminster.taffys said:kle4 - I'm not suggesting for a moment that UKIP will come within a million miles of winning SS. They won't. It's the percentages that will be interesting.
Still, 2015 will be very interesting. Very hard to win your first seat there, but UKIP already scored almost 1 million votes last time, and should double to triple that in 2015 - spread out it won't guarantee a seat (I think 2020 will be their year if they can maintain momentum), but sooner or later masses of votes will mean they gather in one seat enough to win, by simple chance.
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If Hugh stands as an independant he'll come nowhere. If he stands under the red rosette I fear for Nick Palmer's betslip.0
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RT @bbcdemlive: Fans of election reruns: the 1983 election programme will be re-broadcast from 10am - 9.10pm on Monday 1 April on BBC Parliament #election830
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Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 1m
BoC uninsured deposits = €8.01b, Laiki uninsured = €3.2b. Gotta find €5.8b plus BOC capital from that! http://on.wsj.com/YCS7jS <<Crikey
Cyprus is simply screwed.0 -
CarlottaVance said:
At least South Shields will decide the candidate - unlike, if I read the Wiki article correctly, in the original selection of Miliband.AndreaParma_82 said:@Carlotta, it's a by-election now, the Labour shortlist will be decided by a NEC panel in London.
They got a shortlist back then too and local members voted Miliband. I can't find now who else was shortlisted.
It was held more or less at the same time Woodward won St Helen South selection.
The current MPs selected after 1992 without a vote by members are Chris Leslie in Nottingham East 2010 and Alan Johnson in Hull West in 1997.
Before 1992, there could have been others but I am not sure. IIRC Kate Hoey was imposed for Vauxhall by-election because the CLP refused to accept the NEC shortlist as it excluded all loony leftist candidates they wanted to pick.
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"South Shields Reacts To David Miliband Shock: We Want An MP With More Interest In The North East"
http://tyneandwear.sky.com/news/article/61133/south-shields-reacts-to-david-miliband-shock-we-want-an-mp-with0 -
Just get the good folks at Aardman to dust off Wallace..Plato said:
Now that'd be a fun thread for a quiet day - I'd have Simon Pegg to play Tim Farron. Who'd play EdM? I'm struggling here...glassfet said:
It's an interesting question. He could easily play David Miliband in a movieAndreaParma_82 said:How much would Hugh Grant poll standing as an Independent in South Shields?
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Alternatively one could increase the return on a Labour win to 14.6% of the combined stake by placing 60% on Labour and 40% on UKIP, thereby achieving a break even outcome should the Kippers win this market.peter_from_putney said:***** BETTING POST *****
In the Euro Elections: Most Votes market, there's a whacking great difference between the two mega bookies' odds on Labour's chances with Ladbrokes going 1.57 (4/7), compared with Hills' 1.91 (10/11) ..... the latter looks like great value.
On the other hand if one completely discounts the Tories' chances in this market, which I certainly do, then there's a nice 8.3% arb to be had by backing Labour at 1.91 with Hills as aforesaid and UKIP with Laddies at 2.50, staking 56.9% and 43.3% respectively.
As ever DYOR.0 -
Bernie winters (if he was still living ;-) )Plato said:
Now that'd be a fun thread for a quiet day - I'd have Simon Pegg to play Tim Farron. Who'd play EdM? I'm struggling here...glassfet said:
It's an interesting question. He could easily play David Miliband in a movieAndreaParma_82 said:How much would Hugh Grant poll standing as an Independent in South Shields?
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Another Tory with a bizarre fascination with Labour's selection policies.CarlottaVance said:
At least South Shields will decide the candidate - unlike, if I read the Wiki article correctly, in the original selection of Miliband.AndreaParma_82 said:@Carlotta, it's a by-election now, the Labour shortlist will be decided by a NEC panel in London.
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Andy McSmith reckons Iain Malcolm, leader of South Tyneside will get South Sheilds:
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/03/27/iain-malcolm-for-south-shields-is-not-good-news-for-jarrows-mp/
"For Councillor Malcolm, it has been a long wait. He wanted to go for the seat when the previous MP, David Clark, pulled out on the eve of the 2001 general election, but was warned off. It was explained to him that Clark’s resignation was a decision made in Downing Street, under which Clark would create an opening for Miliband, and in return he became Baron Clark of Windermere."0 -
Another Labourite indifferent to democratic process.....Bobajob said:
Another Tory with a bizarre fascination with Labour's selection policies.CarlottaVance said:
At least South Shields will decide the candidate - unlike, if I read the Wiki article correctly, in the original selection of Miliband.AndreaParma_82 said:@Carlotta, it's a by-election now, the Labour shortlist will be decided by a NEC panel in London.
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Iain Malcolm has a brother called Ed who got 0 vote in Middlesbrough selection0
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@BobajobBobajob said:
Another Tory with a bizarre fascination with Labour's selection policies.CarlottaVance said:
At least South Shields will decide the candidate - unlike, if I read the Wiki article correctly, in the original selection of Miliband.AndreaParma_82 said:@Carlotta, it's a by-election now, the Labour shortlist will be decided by a NEC panel in London.
NigelNelson Electoral Reform Society say South Shields by-election a waste of time because result is foregone conclusion. @Kevin_Maguire coronation then
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The square root of f-all. I always thought he was a bit of a leftie so maybe he'll pursue the Labour nomination? I'd have though Shields would be rather alien to him though...AndreaParma_82 said:How much would Hugh Grant poll standing as an Independent in South Shields?
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Note that Buckinghamshire has been ruled by the Conservatives for 120 years, thought to be the longest period any administration in the World has been run by the same party.0
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Morris_Dancer said:
F1: Claire Williams named as deputy principal and long-term successor to Frank (her father)
Ah, but do Williams actually have a long term future? Only if they improve very substantially over their recent performance surely.0 -
Rowan Atkinson could be Ed Miliband:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFufrqhp0eE0 -
Dear Lord, I pity anyone whose politiphilia is so pronounced they spend their bank holiday watching a re-run of an election staged more than a generation ago.Plato said:RT @bbcdemlive: Fans of election reruns: the 1983 election programme will be re-broadcast from 10am - 9.10pm on Monday 1 April on BBC Parliament #election83
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OpenEurope Poll: One out of three students in #Hungary would vote for far-right party Jobbik bit.ly/11M6QsA
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"But the prime minister has rejected claims that retiring MPs have been offered a peerage to stand down so that favoured candidates can be parachuted into a safe seat."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/vote2001/hi/english/newsid_1327000/1327507.stm
Worked out all right for Baron Clark of Windermere....0 -
Ricky Gervais aka The Office. I can just imagine it.Plato said:
Now that'd be a fun thread for a quiet day - I'd have Simon Pegg to play Tim Farron. Who'd play EdM? I'm struggling here...glassfet said:
It's an interesting question. He could easily play David Miliband in a movieAndreaParma_82 said:How much would Hugh Grant poll standing as an Independent in South Shields?
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He didn't even vote for himself?AndreaParma_82 said:Iain Malcolm has a brother called Ed who got 0 vote in Middlesbrough selection
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July 2011:
"The Sunday Telegraph has established that "Hacked Off," a high-profile campaign against press invasions of privacy, is partly funded and staffed by Sovereign Strategy, a controversial company described by the Guardian newspaper as "Labour's favourite lobbyist." "
This Sovereign Strategy is owned by the South Shields CLP Chair and Malcolm is thee chief executive
It's a big circle! We can play 6 degrees of seperation game and connect all0 -
Stocks Open Sharply Lower as Italy Adds to Euro Fears.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100596448
It seems everyone has the SeanT jitters.0 -
Bobajob said:
He didn't even vote for himself?AndreaParma_82 said:Iain Malcolm has a brother called Ed who got 0 vote in Middlesbrough selection
He couldn't vote. He lives in South Tyneside where he's a Cllr. So no member of Middlesbrough CLP...he got less than a woman from Bethnal Green. Poor chap
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The SeanT jitters sounds like it denotes a completely different kind of malady, if I may be so bold.MikeK said:Stocks Open Sharply Lower as Italy Adds to Euro Fears.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100596448
It seems everyone has the SeanT jitters.
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The BBC article on Abu Qatada has a nice picture of East London's success from multiculturalism:
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/64107000/jpg/_64107620_tv000011991.jpg0 -
British politics is now imitating Thunderbirds
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/03/an-international-rescue-british-politics-is-mirroring-thunderbirds/
lol0 -
Re: the Millibands. To watch one brother destroy the career of his brother is a grisly spectacle. Not something I could do. Shudder.0
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I'd bet good money that isn't in East London. Look at the road signs.Socrates said:The BBC article on Abu Qatada has a nice picture of East London's success from multiculturalism:
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/64107000/jpg/_64107620_tv000011991.jpg0 -
Happy to admit my mistake if I'm wrong. The sub-title started with "Abu Qatada emerged as a key voice in the Islamist movement in London, which advocated strict Islamic government in Muslim countries and armed struggle against despots and foreign invaders.", which is what I was basing it on.antifrank said:
I'd bet good money that isn't in East London. Look at the road signs.Socrates said:The BBC article on Abu Qatada has a nice picture of East London's success from multiculturalism:
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/64107000/jpg/_64107620_tv000011991.jpg0 -
Goodbye David, hello Chuka
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/patrickhennessy/100209333/goodbye-david-hello-chuka/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
ffs,please come back David,everythings forgiven ;-)0 -
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@oflynnexpress: Best description of Ed Mil (by a Lab MP); not good enough to win, not bad enough to get rid of0
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But thats what tim would like London to be like. I wonder why he likes multiculturalism so much?0
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What EdM wanted to be when he grew up...
Maths magician solves three Rubik’s Cubes while juggling
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_gHa2x2OQA0 -
kle4
Euro fears
So let' re-cap. The Eurozone imposes draconian penalties on the law abiding middle classes of Cyprus in order to bailout out banks. The Russian billions are apparently allowed to flee, subject to investigations about potential shennanigans that could lead goodness knows where. Clearly, some depositors are more equal than others.
It's then unclear whether ordinary savers in other European countries will face the same penalties, if there are more bailouts. Some say they may, some they may not.
But you should go ahead investing in Europe's banks. Oh yes you should. Now come on, you know you want to. Stick all your money there, and relax. In fact double your investment...
The Eurozone doesn't get this capitalism thing, does it...
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They have offices in Gateshead, London, Brussels, Kuwait and Reykjavik:AndreaParma_82 said:This Sovereign Strategy is owned by the South Shields CLP Chair and Malcolm is the chief executive
http://www.sovereignstrategy.com/people/i-malcolm/?phpMyAdmin=761498bbac8b5b102757a9f200af0dc0
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I've just had a 'good' idea for a new Euro tax. Insist that everyone is paid annually and confiscate 50% over 50 000. Individual nation states can squabble about what's left.0
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@TimGattITV: How will Sunderland fans feel abt this? D Miliband to remain as club vice-chairman (on £125k/yr) despite living in US http://itv.co/16XVN3h0
This discussion has been closed.