Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield reviews the battle of May 2nd – the locals

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield reviews the battle of May 2nd – the locals

Since the PCC elections across the United Kingdom, if you are a Conservative candidate you have either lost the local by-election that you were supposed to have been defending (31 defences, 16 holds, 15 losses), been hit for six in parliamentary by-elections (Best performance: -7.25% in Manchester Central, Worst Performance:

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    But how many will the LDs lose this time
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @TimGattITV: Ouch RT @GerardTubbSky: Me to secretary of @DMiliband's CLP: What do you want now? Him: A local MP - we haven't had one in living memory
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    SeanT said:

    What a loss to British politics. How will we manage without the intellectual acuity of David ‘we must join the euro or starve’ Miliband?

    We've got :tumbleweed: to listen to...!

    :oops:

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Morning all, breath the fresh cold air on the day a millepede bites the dust.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Al-Beeb breaking news:

    It's true; CY2012Q4 GDP growth was -0.3%!

    :looks-at-belly-button:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,030
    SeanT said:

    What a loss to British politics. How will we manage without the intellectual acuity of David ‘we must join the euro or starve’ Miliband?

    If Miliband Sr is paid at the same rate as his predecessor, George E. Rupp ($395,612 ~ £260,500), I doubt he need worry about starving:

    http://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=3898

    IRC seem happy:

    "David is an experienced world leader and a man of both action and character,” Rupp said, “as his record as Foreign Secretary — including his work for conflict resolution in the former Yugoslavia, his leadership in calling for a political settlement in Afghanistan, and his drive for education reform in Pakistan and human rights in Sri Lanka — attests. His insights, ability and commitment will be tremendous assets. I look forward to witnessing this next exciting chapter of the IRC’s incredible journey of helping the most desperate people move from harm to home.

    A Message from United States President William J. Clinton
    "I congratulate the IRC on the appointment of David Miliband as its President. I have known David almost twenty years. He is one of the ablest, most creative public servants of our time.”

    http://www.rescue.org/news/david-miliband-former-uk-foreign-secretary-appointed-president-international-rescue-committee-1
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    PaddyPower go 25/1 UKIP in South Shields
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited March 2013
    Let's hope lots and lots of waste-of-space Tory councillors are (metaphorically) wiped out in May.

    Voters deserve better.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Only 8% for Ukip? Surely not.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,855
    Loosely on-topic, inasmuch as it relates to Tory malaise, this is interesting for those who find tax interesting:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9956005/Taxman-hits-stay-at-home-mothers.html

    Basically the "discrimination" in the tax system against one-working-parent households in favour of two-working-payment households demonstrated by the OECD to have increased under this government.

    You can't help thinking that Cameron's missed an essential point of the Blairite approach to alienating your core vote in order to attract the centre, namely that you have to use policies that don't also alienate the centre. Marriage tax incentives are only really unpopular on the hardcore ideological left, it's the kind of small-c conservative policy that a lot of Labour supporters would really like their party to adopt.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    What a loss to British politics. How will we manage without the intellectual acuity of David ‘we must join the euro or starve’ Miliband?

    That's not fair Sean. We should also judge him on ideas like carbon ration cards for each person.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Official figures confirm UK economy shrank by 0.3% in Q4 of 2012, as initial GDP estimates forecast. BBC.

    So still shrinking!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,979
    Note I've cut Harry's chart of ICM polling figures and replaced it with an overall summary of what's being defended.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,901
    O/T but in response to Plato: Professional mourners were common in Southern Italy until quite recently; may still be for all I know. As were professional "uncles" for weddings etc.

    See, for instance, Norman Lewis's "Naples '44" - one of the best books about war, ever.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @lindayueh: Euro Trades Below $1.28 On EBS; First Time Since November 21 via @djfxtrader

    Bitcoin trades at $87
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Theresa May will be watching with interest to see just how bad it is for the Tories.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 580
    Not sure they can have the by-election on 2 May - needs 17 working days from the writ being moved. If moved on 15th April there are only 13 days until 2 May.
  • I think the numbers for council control are wrong. The Lib Dems aren't defending any councils this year, are they? And aren't Labour defending Durham?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,624
    @BrunoBrussels #EUbudget: Brussels spending plans for 2013 to be amended today, increase will be 'bigger than the Cyprus bailout'. No UK veto
  • JonCJonC Posts: 67
    Tory blood bath is assured. Even if they got a decent 35% share (they won't...) they would still lose loads of councillors. Conversely Labour's performance was so epically dire that they cannot fail to look good.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    We're fed-up with the economy, despair at our politics and are fixated with the failure of our more 'progressive' neighbours in Europe.

    Outside of the harvest of 'funny-farm' postal votes - CPS sanctioned in Tower-Hamlet - nothing much will happen on the electoral-scale. The only challenge may be for the Lib-Dhimmies to reach 17% (which, IIRC, is where Mark Senior expects them to be around-or-about).
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    edited March 2013

    I think the numbers for council control are wrong. The Lib Dems aren't defending any councils this year, are they? And aren't Labour defending Durham?

    I guess the wikipedia table was done on 2009 results.
    Labour are indeed defending Durham which last voted in 2008. LD won overall controll in Bristol in 2009 but they already lost it to NOC.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,520
    glassfet said:

    PaddyPower go 25/1 UKIP in South Shields

    UKIP at 2.1 for second place. Con at 2.37, LD at 4.5
  • samsam Posts: 727
    @tim

    If this seat is comparable to Rotherham in terms of lab holding steady and con ld losing votes then UKIP at 11/10 is a gift


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,520
    tim said:

    PP market on winner without Labour in South Shields

    Closet Racists 11/10
    David Cameron's Conservatives 11/8
    Lib Dems 7/2

    Which of those do you like Tim, I got on UKIP for £20, good or hedge with the tories ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,030
    Why it woz Ed wot won it:

    http://www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2011/7898.html

    "Such was the manner of intervention by trade unions that the legitimacy of the electoral college is called into question. Wickham-Jones and Jobson argue that candidates did not have equal and open access to the electorate; the electorate was not fully informed; resources were not equalised; and ballots were not distributed in a neutral manner. They argue that the case for reform of the electoral college is unanswerable."
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:

    glassfet said:

    PaddyPower go 25/1 UKIP in South Shields

    UKIP at 2.1 for second place. Con at 2.37, LD at 4.5

    Con 2nd now @ 13/8


    I've bitten.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,520
    Pulpstar said:

    tim said:

    PP market on winner without Labour in South Shields

    Closet Racists 11/10
    David Cameron's Conservatives 11/8
    Lib Dems 7/2

    Which of those do you like Tim, I got on UKIP for £20, good or hedge with the tories ?
    Can't really see anything other than humiliation for the yellows up north.

  • I see saint David of Miliband is devoting his life to charity - £400000 a year should keep the wolf from the door.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    scampi said:

    I see saint David of Miliband is devoting his life to charity - £400000 a year should keep the wolf from the door.

    He will leave with his party's respect and regret, with his dignity intact, a good job to go to and with a considerable nest-egg of earnings. For David Miliband, no stranger to bitter disappointment, all of that may be enough.
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/maryriddell/100208161/why-david-miliband-had-to-leave-politics/
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    @BrunoBrussels #EUbudget: Brussels spending plans for 2013 to be amended today, increase will be 'bigger than the Cyprus bailout'. No UK veto

    How does the UK not get a veto?
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    The Tories will joke that Ed couldn't even keep his own brother on side. They will also say Ed's Labour party is clearly too far to the left if there's no room in it for David. Those complaints can be pretty easily swatted aside.

    More serious is the loss of a heavyweight figure from a party that does not have many to spare. Today's shadow cabinet is not over-endowed with figures seasoned by experience of the very highest offices of state: in fact it has none.

    Above all, this was a loss that should have been avoidable. Three years ago two brothers somehow failed to work out an arrangement that would have allowed them to serve alongside each other. Neither their party nor their family managed to prevent a head-to-head confrontation that meant only one could survive. That remains one of the strangest and saddest stories in recent British political history.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/mar/27/david-miliband-has-made-the-right-move
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,520
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    glassfet said:

    PaddyPower go 25/1 UKIP in South Shields

    UKIP at 2.1 for second place. Con at 2.37, LD at 4.5

    Con 2nd now @ 13/8


    I've bitten.
    £18 on CON second now at 2.5 (Must have missed the 13/8)

    So Con 2nd = £7 profit, UKIP 2nd = £4 profit on a £38 stake. Can you tell I don't think the LDs have a prayer ;)
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    "A health watchdog has issued guidelines to help parents distinguish between naughtiness and more worrying behaviour in their children that might need medical intervention.

    About one in every 20 children aged five to 16 has a conduct disorder - persistent and extreme misbehaviour.

    The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence guidelines outline how to spot and treat these conditions.

    They say parents should play a central role in this.

    While all children can be naughty from time to time, the behaviour of children with conduct disorders is different.

    They persistently misbehave - both at home and in school - and their actions can be extreme and harmful.

    As well as stealing, fighting or vandalising property, they might hurt people and animals, for example.

    Prof Steven Pilling, who helped develop the guidelines, said: "Children with conduct disorders are different. It's not a bit of tantruming or getting into trouble now and then. It's picking up the 14in TV and throwing it through the window."

    He said it was important that parents be taught how to how to handle this type of behaviour.

    "Firmness and saying 'No' is not the solution for these children. We need to get parents to switch the focus from being controlling and punitive to encouraging positive behaviour," he said.

    About half of children with antisocial behaviour or conduct disorders not only miss out on parts of their childhood but also go on to have serious mental health problems as adults. Some go on to be repeated offenders."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-21936927

    So when they get caught by the police and the courts say NO and imprison them, it is too late - NIHCE has said the method of saying No is not correct.

    More useless advice from academia that should be ignored.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Bloke called John Tenant is putting himself forward as UKIP candidate in South Shields
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    edited March 2013
    @Sam

    He stood in Gateshead in 2010. He's an assistant to Derek Clark MEP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,520
    SeanT said:

    Who gives a tiny flying F about the local elex, or David 'europenis' Miliband.

    What is happening in Cyprus dwarfs it all. Anyone who isn't terrified by the potential fall out lacks basic sentience.

    It is now quite easy to plot a path from this present debacle to a Worst Case Scenario.

    1. Cyprus crumbles, emitting shockwaves
    2. Banks begin to fail across Club Med as spooked depositors flee
    3. Italy or Spain buckles, and one of them has to quit the euro, as they are too big to bail
    4. The eurozone collapses entirely, causing a deep intense Depression across the West
    5. Democracy fails in badly hit EZ countries like Greece; civil unrest spreads globally...
    6. War?


    I still believe it won't come to that. But it is now horribly simple to see much of this happening.

    London's Laiki being open for unlimited withdrawals last week was an amusing move. Wonder how much Russian footfall it got...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Ireland moves when it makes it national budget, so it can be done in time for approval by the reichskommisar:

    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/next-budget-to-be-revealed-in-october-1.1339774
  • glassfet said:

    'Today's shadow cabinet is not over-endowed with figures seasoned by experience of the very highest offices of state: in fact it has none.'
    A pretty useless point, even if it were true. We heard nothing from this government's supporters of the fact that only two coalition Cabinet ministers in 2010 had been in the Cabinet before. Indeed, incumbent government ministers' lack of experience appears to have been a good thing in their eyes, resulting in a 'near-perfect' Chancellor of the Exchequer, among other things.

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,855
    SeanT said:

    All those politicians who put the euro together, and tried to sell it to the Brits, shouldn't just be executed, they should be CRUCIFIED. They are no better than the monarchs, premiers and field marshals who devised and conducted the First World War.

    Indeed they are spookily similar: an incestuously related European elite, convinced of their superior wisdom, who destroyed a continent with their arrogant stupidity.

    There's a lot to agree with there but it raises a few questions. At what point did it go wrong: right back at the time of the ECSC in 1951 (even then there were visions of currency union); Maastricht? Schengen? - and what would have happened otherwise? as opposed to what *should* have happened otherwise. A lot of different roads could lead to economic or democratic meltdown in the southern European states, possibly rather sooner than the 2013-5 window it's all likely to happen it. It's not immediately obvious that better outcomes were available.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @MrHarryCole: Jim Murphy trying to say it's good for the party while looking like somone pissed on his chips. At a funeral.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,520
    tim said:

    @Pulpstar.

    I had what they'd let me have on UKIP to come second.

    Thanks I think that shifted the odds enough to allow my and Pong's CON bets. The real mispricing there is the Lib Dems I feel. 7/2 ? More like 70-2.

  • Bit slow out of bed this morning and missed the early prices, but 10/11 UKIP for 2nd still looks OK to me.

    Agree with Pong that LDs nowhere in this contest. Maybe some value in the Con price too?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,901
    SeanT: on Radio 4 this morning some finance-wallah was saying that the figures to watch in the next few weeks were the size of withdrawals/transfers from banks in Italy, Spain and Portugal. If these were above normal then we were facing a silent bank run and the prospect of more Cypruses.

    Incidentally, when people talk about how well-capitalised Italian banks are, don't believe a word of it. A look at what's been discovered at Banca dei Monti di Paschi di Siena should disabuse anyone of the belief that Italian bank accounts are worth more than the paper they're printed on.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Eurocrat omnishambles actually costing lives:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100594911
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 580
    I wouldn't write UKIP off, with 9th May earliest date for the election in South Shields, have 6 weeks to organise their campaign. Do they have a campaign supremo?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    @Financier: So when they get caught by the police and the courts say NO and imprison them, it is too late - NIHCE has said the method of saying No is not correct.

    More useless advice from academia that should be ignored.

    Too true. A good clip around the ear or a slipper on the bum is the correct way to address naughty or wayward children. But these days one would end up in jail as abusers of the little darlings.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Polruan said:

    SeanT said:

    All those politicians who put the euro together, and tried to sell it to the Brits, shouldn't just be executed, they should be CRUCIFIED. They are no better than the monarchs, premiers and field marshals who devised and conducted the First World War.

    Indeed they are spookily similar: an incestuously related European elite, convinced of their superior wisdom, who destroyed a continent with their arrogant stupidity.

    There's a lot to agree with there but it raises a few questions. At what point did it go wrong: right back at the time of the ECSC in 1951 (even then there were visions of currency union); Maastricht? Schengen? - and what would have happened otherwise? as opposed to what *should* have happened otherwise. A lot of different roads could lead to economic or democratic meltdown in the southern European states, possibly rather sooner than the 2013-5 window it's all likely to happen it. It's not immediately obvious that better outcomes were available.
    Well, in terms of monetary union it was Maastricht. That's not to say they didn't do other things wrong before that, but that was the moment the continent was set on course to economic destruction.

    Your last two sentences are just ridiculous. Yes, it is very obvious that a better outcome was available: no Eurozone. It's absurd to pretend otherwise.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,520
    edited March 2013
    Icarus said:

    I wouldn't write UKIP off, with 9th May earliest date for the election in South Shields, have 6 weeks to organise their campaign. Do they have a campaign supremo?

    The great thing about the W/O LAB market with P Power is it is not a 2nd place market. If the stars align correctly and UKIP win then the '2nd place' bet still pays. That was useful in Betfair 'W/O CON, W/O LD market Eastleigh ' UKIP wouldn't have paid out on a 3rd place market there ;)

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,901
    The continued medicalisation of bad behaviour is very depressing. Parents should learn to say no and live with the resulting and usually temporary unpopularity.

    You are your child's parent not their friend.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,901
    Socrates: "Yes, it is very obvious that a better outcome was available: no Eurozone. "

    Or a smaller Eurozone limited to those countries which were really ready for it and had convergent economies: Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands and possibly Austria.

    Politically, that would never have worked hence the current mess where everyone wants the nice consequences of a single currency but none of the responsibilities it entails.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited March 2013
    Looks like another four and a half million people will have unlimited access to Britain come July 2020:

    http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/346537

    That'll be just after the 2020 election, when the Tories will likely still be widely disliked and the public will have had five years of Miliband-Balls rule.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The government are trying to convince the public who see their fuel costs escalating at an alarming rate that,in government lala land fuel bills are going down.That's right,the evidence of your own eyes is quite wrong.OutLaw Josie Wells to the rescue:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4e8iAofnrw
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,901
    @tim: I'm all in favour of treating those with genuine mental illness properly and early. Bad behaviour per se is not a mental illness, anymore than homosexuality was when it was classified as an illness at the start of the 20th century by psychiatrists.

    Too many people excuse their children's bad behaviour rather than trying to bring them up properly and teaching their children the difference between right and wrong and the importance of taking responsibility for one's actions and learning from one's mistakes.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Icarus said:

    I wouldn't write UKIP off, with 9th May earliest date for the election in South Shields, have 6 weeks to organise their campaign. Do they have a campaign supremo?

    I thought the same thing, and one thing that could ensure a Ukip victory would be a Euro meltdown and/or runs on banks in southern europe. This would open the eyes and close the pockets of even the most obtuse labour voter.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,855
    Socrates said:

    Polruan said:

    SeanT said:

    All those politicians who put the euro together, and tried to sell it to the Brits, shouldn't just be executed, they should be CRUCIFIED. They are no better than the monarchs, premiers and field marshals who devised and conducted the First World War.

    Indeed they are spookily similar: an incestuously related European elite, convinced of their superior wisdom, who destroyed a continent with their arrogant stupidity.

    There's a lot to agree with there but it raises a few questions. At what point did it go wrong: right back at the time of the ECSC in 1951 (even then there were visions of currency union); Maastricht? Schengen? - and what would have happened otherwise? as opposed to what *should* have happened otherwise. A lot of different roads could lead to economic or democratic meltdown in the southern European states, possibly rather sooner than the 2013-5 window it's all likely to happen it. It's not immediately obvious that better outcomes were available.
    Well, in terms of monetary union it was Maastricht. That's not to say they didn't do other things wrong before that, but that was the moment the continent was set on course to economic destruction.

    Your last two sentences are just ridiculous. Yes, it is very obvious that a better outcome was available: no Eurozone. It's absurd to pretend otherwise.
    It's not ridiculous to suggest that economic meltdown in some southern European states could have happened rather sooner than 2013 if they hadn't been part of monetary union. Such meltdown could plausibly have been worse than what we have seen so far. A lot of the threats to functioning democracy that we now see on the horizon in places like Greece might already have been a reality. I'm not saying that this is what *would* have happened, but that it *could* have happened. Of course one could reasonably argue (as I think @cyclefree is doing) that it was too ambitious to embark on a project to try and prevent those outcomes and the northern states should have left well alone - that may well be correct, but again the counterfactual alternatives are not trivially obvious.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,624
    Socrates said:

    How does the UK not get a veto?

    I read the tweet as meaning that they're not exercising one. Don't know the details behind this, though.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,030
    "The banking system in Cyprus is, at present, seven times larger than the national gross domestic product. On a eurozone average, the banking systems are roughly three and a half times larger than the national economies. And in Germany the factor is 3.2. Such an oversized banking system as in Cyprus is not least a reflection of the fact that the banks there have an unsustainable business model."

    http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Interviews/2013_03_26_dombret_sueddeutsche

    Just as well there aren't any other € countries with an 'oversized banking system' with lots of foreign (e.g., German) savers and an 'unsustainable business model' then.....

    oh.....hang on.....
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    South Tyneside council leader Iain Malcolm is said to be considering his options.
    He's on the council since 1988. I don't know when he became leader. He also worked for a former MEP. Said MEP is also the South Shields CLP Chair. The two of them founded this http://www.sovereignstrategy.com/people/i-malcolm/

    Malcolm was already hoping for the seat when Miliband was he was imported in 2001.

    He's seen as controversial by some Labourites. But I don't know the details and how much there is in them. Usually people who are at the helm of councils for many years are always seen as controversial. It may depend on the view of the NEC and regional party regarding this.

    In the mid 90s, the then Deputy Leader Stephen Hepburn (now MP for Jarrow) got a 75£ fine for having assaulted him.

    Obviously Iain Malcom also have a brother who would like to become MP. The brother is called Ed and he's also sitting on ST Council.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    We should get rid of all these so-called "doctors" and "academics".

    Get Richard Littlejohn to head a consortium of taxi drivers, last orders sages and PBTories to set medical guidelines.

    "pull yourself together"
    "a good clip round the ear"
    "I'd soon 'turn' her"
  • @Tim

    At what level would you stop backing UKIP for 2nd?

    10/11 looks ok to me but we've yet to see what candidates the Parties come up with. At Eastleigh, UKIP found a bit of a star whilst the Tories were hampered by the hapless Hutchins.

    The Kippers are unlikely to have the same advantages in S Shields.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219
    On topic, I don't think so for several reasons:-

    1. Since 1993, a lot of urban areas have been carved out of the County Councils, to form Unitary Authorities, leaving the hinterland more securely under Conservative control.

    2. 2009 was a good year for the Liberal Democrats, in terms of both seats and vote share. Their vote will drop by a similar margin to the Conservatives, compared to four years ago. Most County Councils are Con/Lib Dem battlegrounds.

    3. UKIP's impact is hard to determine. They can win a safe Conservative seat (Runnymede), split the right wing vote (Bognor) or take a historically safe Labour ward (Gooshays). They'll probably hurt the Conservatives more than the other two in the County elections, but not consistently.

    However, the Conservatives are sure to lose a lot of seats. I think we can assume that Labour will regain all their losses from 2009, compared to 2005 (297) and maybe do a bit better than that. They'll win back Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, and perhaps Nothamptonshire. But, the Conservatives aren't going to lose control of places like Surrey, Kent, Essex, and Hertfordshire, as they did in 1993.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,030

    Socrates said:

    How does the UK not get a veto?

    I read the tweet as meaning that they're not exercising one. Don't know the details behind this, though.

    Is it not because renegotiation is via QMV?

  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @MrHarryCole: Finally someone did the photoshopping that was always going to happen today: http://bit.ly/YHYJKJ
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Yes let's give fidgety kids who can't concentrate strong drugs rather than extra care and teaching, and while we are at it give out boob jobs to any young women who are feeling a bit low.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @hugorifkind: Hey @PCollinsTimes and @Dannythefink? I'm not in today, but can we finally use that "Geek Tragedy" headline, please?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Socrates said:

    Looks like another four and a half million people will have unlimited access to Britain come July 2020:

    http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/346537

    That'll be just after the 2020 election, when the Tories will likely still be widely disliked and the public will have had five years of Miliband-Balls rule.

    I see that the dispute with Slovenia that was threatening to derail Croatia's entry to the EU has now apparently been resolved:

    http://dalje.com/en-world/slovenia-to-ratify-croatias-eu-treaty-of-accession-next-tuesday/461038
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Polruan said:

    Socrates said:

    Polruan said:

    SeanT said:

    All those politicians who put the euro together, and tried to sell it to the Brits, shouldn't just be executed, they should be CRUCIFIED. They are no better than the monarchs, premiers and field marshals who devised and conducted the First World War.

    Indeed they are spookily similar: an incestuously related European elite, convinced of their superior wisdom, who destroyed a continent with their arrogant stupidity.

    There's a lot to agree with there but it raises a few questions. At what point did it go wrong: right back at the time of the ECSC in 1951 (even then there were visions of currency union); Maastricht? Schengen? - and what would have happened otherwise? as opposed to what *should* have happened otherwise. A lot of different roads could lead to economic or democratic meltdown in the southern European states, possibly rather sooner than the 2013-5 window it's all likely to happen it. It's not immediately obvious that better outcomes were available.
    Well, in terms of monetary union it was Maastricht. That's not to say they didn't do other things wrong before that, but that was the moment the continent was set on course to economic destruction.

    Your last two sentences are just ridiculous. Yes, it is very obvious that a better outcome was available: no Eurozone. It's absurd to pretend otherwise.
    It's not ridiculous to suggest that economic meltdown in some southern European states could have happened rather sooner than 2013 if they hadn't been part of monetary union. Such meltdown could plausibly have been worse than what we have seen so far. A lot of the threats to functioning democracy that we now see on the horizon in places like Greece might already have been a reality. I'm not saying that this is what *would* have happened, but that it *could* have happened. Of course one could reasonably argue (as I think @cyclefree is doing) that it was too ambitious to embark on a project to try and prevent those outcomes and the northern states should have left well alone - that may well be correct, but again the counterfactual alternatives are not trivially obvious.
    This is absurd. It's like saying "a plane may have hit the World Trade Center even if we'd caught Bin Laden in the 1990s, who knows what the counterfactuals are?" Of course, virtually any physically possible counterfactual "could" have happened, but to go from that to suggesting, as you seem to, that monetary union was an unsuccessful attempt to prevent financial crises is just ridiculous.

    I know it's difficult being an ideological europhile right now. You have to deal with the non-negotiable premise that European integration has been A Good Thing, yet also the undeniable fact that the process has caused economic devastation for tens of millions. I suppose, in that context, the argument that it could have happened anyway is the best you're left with.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219
    I'd expect UKIP to acheive a comfortable second place in South Shields
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,520
    SeanT said:

    Whoah

    #Cyprus FinMin Sarris “Uninsured Popular Bank depositors could face 80% haircut” http://t.co/xbH3xJAvS0 #russian_roulette

    80%. Imagine that. Imagine you are some Cypriot widow, perhaps a little frail, and you've just sold your house to realise the capital for your old age. The money was sitting in the bank last week. Then Berlin comes along and takes 80% of your entire worth.

    They won't even get the tourism and economy boost returning to the cypriot pound and inevitable devaluation would have had :/

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 9,460
    edited March 2013
    @Tim

    Agreed, Tim. UKIP need Grant 'Sch...you know who' to weave his magic again.

    Three bets today at Southwell but I got on early and I see the prices have dropped so judge for yourself whether there is still some value left. In ascending order of merit, the nags and prices I got are:

    4.55 Apache Rising 11/4
    4.20 Rio Cobolo 9/2
    5.30 Al Amaan 9/2
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    One thing I'm not clear on. When depositors holding more than €100k get an "80% haircut", do they levy that sum from the entire deposit. Or just the amount in excess of €100k?

    Does anyone know? I presume its the latter, but its not screamingly obvious. The fact it is unclear is unnerving in itself.

    I'm pretty sure it's the former. It was under the first deal.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,856
    SeanT said:

    Whoah

    #Cyprus FinMin Sarris “Uninsured Popular Bank depositors could face 80% haircut” http://t.co/xbH3xJAvS0 #russian_roulette

    I'm sure I remember something earlier this week which said that only the biggest two banks were due to have a haircut.

    there are going to be an awful lot of upset people if the banks ever reopen.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Is this South Shields by election comparable to Rotherham in terms of Labour holding easily and the Cons and LDs not bothering? If so then UKIP will walk 2nd place

    Using Eastleigh as a comparison it would be 50/50 UKIP/con but I don't think thatisa comparable seat
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,901
    SeanT: indeed. Losing 80% or 40% is appalling. No-one, if they have above the £85,000 "protected" limit, should have more than that in any one institution.

    We learnt that here in 2007 with Northern Rock. The Cypriots are learning the same lesson - but with knobs on - now.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I also learned yesterday that a lot of the Russians with money in Cyprus who have been castigated as dodgy money launderers, are actually people wanting their money to operate in a fair English law environment, where they couldn't get their money confiscated from them, as in Russia.
  • @Sam

    Quite like the 'boob jobs' idea.

    Perhaps one of the Main Parties could incorporate it into its manifesto.

    Sure vote-winner.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    How does the UK not get a veto?

    I read the tweet as meaning that they're not exercising one. Don't know the details behind this, though.

    If a Budget is not agreed, last years Budget is carried over, automatically, and increased by the rate of inflation. There is no veto on this.

    Fairly sure that's what the tweet is referring to.
    Won't the UK contribution be smaller, however, if it's last year's budget carried over? Could turn out to be a win for us.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,520
    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    One thing I'm not clear on. When depositors holding more than €100k get an "80% haircut", do they levy that sum from the entire deposit. Or just the amount in excess of €100k?

    Does anyone know? I presume its the latter, but its not screamingly obvious. The fact it is unclear is unnerving in itself.

    I'm pretty sure it's the former. It was under the first deal.
    800,000,000 % tax on the cent between 99,999.99 € and 100,000 € then.

    Sounds fair !
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,901
    The two biggest banks are effectively bust. The bondholders are wiped out as are uninsured depositors i.e. anyone with more than 100,000 euros. In theory, they should only lose money above that threshold but who knows what's been agreed.

    At any event, whatever's being said the Cypriots are no longer part of the single currency - they cannot freely transfer their money across borders, cannot even take it out to be spent in Cyprus above certain limits and a Cypriot euro is no longer worth the same as a German euro.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited March 2013
    @tim

    Reading the symptoms of ADHD on wiki, I think it is far too easily diagnosable on children who don't ave anything wrong with them at all except not being interested in school. of course you will dismiss this as anecdotal evidence, but atthe school my Dad worked in the queue for Ritalin stretched round the corridor everyday. It's too easy to just throw pills at unruly kids now, it's the 21st century whiskey on the dummy

    Teach them right from wrong at an early age not that every bit of bad behaviour is a disorder treatable by drugs. That would be a better way of keeping them out of prison

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attention_deficit_hyperactivity_disorder
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    @Sam

    The LibDems stood 0 candidates in South Shields in 2012 locals. So yes, I guess, they won't bother.
    The Tories stood everywhere and polled 6.72%, 4.41% , 9.4%, 9.96%, 7.72%, 11.1%, 10.5, 12.36, 23.81 (in a 2 way fight), 2.95%
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,855
    Socrates said:

    Polruan said:

    Socrates said:

    Polruan said:

    SeanT said:

    All those politicians who put the euro together, and tried to sell it to the Brits, shouldn't just be executed, they should be CRUCIFIED. They are no better than the monarchs, premiers and field marshals who devised and conducted the First World War.

    Indeed they are spookily similar: an incestuously related European elite, convinced of their superior wisdom, who destroyed a continent with their arrogant stupidity.

    There's a lot to agree with there but it raises a few questions. At what point did it go wrong: right back at the time of the ECSC in 1951 (even then there were visions of currency union); Maastricht? Schengen? - and what would have happened otherwise? as opposed to what *should* have happened otherwise. A lot of different roads could lead to economic or democratic meltdown in the southern European states, possibly rather sooner than the 2013-5 window it's all likely to happen it. It's not immediately obvious that better outcomes were available.
    Well, in terms of monetary union it was Maastricht. That's not to say they didn't do other things wrong before that, but that was the moment the continent was set on course to economic destruction.

    Your last two sentences are just ridiculous. Yes, it is very obvious that a better outcome was available: no Eurozone. It's absurd to pretend otherwise.
    It's not ridiculous to suggest that economic meltdown in some southern European states could have happened rather sooner than 2013 if they hadn't been part of monetary union. Such meltdown could plausibly have been worse than what we have seen so far. A lot of the threats to functioning democracy that we now see on the horizon in places like Greece might already have been a reality. I'm not saying that this is what *would* have happened, but that it *could* have happened. Of course one could reasonably argue (as I think @cyclefree is doing) that it was too ambitious to embark on a project to try and prevent those outcomes and the northern states should have left well alone - that may well be correct, but again the counterfactual alternatives are not trivially obvious.
    This is absurd. It's like saying "a plane may have hit the World Trade Center even if we'd caught Bin Laden in the 1990s, who knows what the counterfactuals are?" Of course, virtually any physically possible counterfactual "could" have happened, but to go from that to suggesting, as you seem to, that monetary union was an unsuccessful attempt to prevent financial crises is just ridiculous.

    I know it's difficult being an ideological europhile right now. You have to deal with the non-negotiable premise that European integration has been A Good Thing, yet also the undeniable fact that the process has caused economic devastation for tens of millions. I suppose, in that context, the argument that it could have happened anyway is the best you're left with.
    There's a difference between reasonably analysable counterfactuals and those that are just plausible. Most decisions are made by weighing up a best guess at what will happen if I do x versus what will happen if I don't do x. A lot of European integration was driven by fear of further instability and warfare in the continent, including the fear of what could happen in the event of dramatically widening wealth gaps between those on the core and those other countries on the periphery, with which many of the states share land borders. You don't necessarily want a fascist military coup a short tank drive from your own parliament, after all.

    I don't know whether these fears were rational - some decisions could be seen as trauma-driven choices resulting from the scars of the last two wars.But it's too simplistic to say that everything was pure ideological, head-in-sand, fingers-in-ears-singing-lalala refusal to acknowledge the wise warnings of what would go wrong a couple of decades down the road.

    As for what it's like being an ideological right now, well, I wouldn't know. Instinctively, I tend towards capital controls, withholding taxes on cross-border distributions and putting up a big fence round my land in Cornwall before starting growing vegetables there and waiting out the economic meltdown. I'm loosely sceptical about the European project, but that doesn't mean I don't question whether the alternatives could have turned out worse.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Middlesbrough 2010
    Lab 45.9% (-11.7 on 2005)
    LD 19.9 (+1.2)
    Con 18.8 (+2.3)
    Ind 5.9
    BNP 5.8
    UKIP 3.7

    2012 by-election

    Lab 60.5
    UKIP 11.8
    LD 9.9
    Con 6.3
    Peace Party 6.3
    BNP 1.9
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    edited March 2013
    In South Shields 2010

    Lab -8.8
    Con +4.0
    LD -5.0
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @iainmartin1: Blogging on D Miliband, trying to assemble list of achievements as Foreign Sec. Stuck after getting UK to sign up to Lisbon Treaty...
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    Have there ever been capital controls within a country with a central bank? Could they be applied by a reserve state bank in the USA for example?
    Logistically, being cut-off as an island may have been helpful in olden times, but nowadays? Someone earlier pointed to a zerohedge article saying that big Russian investors got their money out before the clamp down by electronic transfers to unaffected branches in London etc.
    Meanwhile the Cypriots are reduced to prelapsarian existence, self-reliance and barter.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,030
    Just as well there aren't any other 'unsustainable' banking business models like Cyprus in the €-zone, on 7x GDP.....vs the Euro average of 3x

    ......Like Luxembourg (22x), Malta (10x) or Ireland (7x)......

    http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/2013/03/26/13454349c7.htm

    And absolutely nothing to worry about in 4X France, or Netherlands either.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,520
    UK banks still short of capital. More capital = Less lending, less lending = less growth, less growth = more debt, deficit.

    Can I place a bet on the UK undershooting the 2.6% growth that the OBR predicted, anyone ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,624
    SeanT said:

    If a Budget is not agreed, last years Budget is carried over, automatically, and increased by the rate of inflation. There is no veto on this.

    OK, turns out it's related to Croatia joining. The British don't have a veto because they've already agreed to it - it's the previous treaty letting Croatia in finally getting implemented now that the Slovenians have finished dicking around.

    Apologies for posting that slightly twattish tweet by Bruno Waterfield. Obviously if the EU expands to take in a bunch more taxpayers it's going to have a bigger budget, and you don't get to veto things you've already agreed to.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Part of the problem for Cypriots is that they've recently been burned on the stock market so they didnt want to have their money there, property on the island was an enormous bubble that crashed so they didnt want to have their money there - lots of people had a lot of their assets (as well as their pension funds) parked in the bank. And that was invested in Greek bonds and property. Eek. The former President has to take a lot of the blame, the man was an idiot (in the real sense of the word, not in the "I disagree with his politics" sense of the word).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,520

    SeanT said:

    If a Budget is not agreed, last years Budget is carried over, automatically, and increased by the rate of inflation. There is no veto on this.

    OK, turns out it's related to Croatia joining. The British don't have a veto because they've already agreed to it - it's the previous treaty letting Croatia in finally getting implemented now that the Slovenians have finished dicking around.

    Apologies for posting that slightly twattish tweet by Bruno Waterfield. Obviously if the EU expands to take in a bunch more taxpayers it's going to have a bigger budget, and you don't get to veto things you've already agreed to.
    Ceteris paribus our contribution should remain about the same as it was then seeing as Croatia will be surely contributing to the new budget as it has the good fortune to join the EU ?

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,855
    SeanT said:

    @socrates

    Polruan's argument is even wankier than that. It's like saying, if we hadn't had the International System which led to the First World War, the First World War would have been even worse, with nukes and stuff.

    Just laughable. And faintly disgraceful.

    The form of the argument "we shouldn't have had monetary union because of the economic meltdown that is now coming" is exactly the same as the form of the argument "we shouldn't have fought WWII because a rather large number of people died".

    You evaluate those arguments based on a view of the likely counterfactual. So in the wankier form you've cited above, one would be saying "if Britain hadn't entered the Second World War [when we did], the events following 1939 would have been even worse because..."

    Isn't that exactly what one would say when discussing WWII?

    All I'm asking is what underlies the certainty that monetary union is "worst" rather than "bad".
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Polruan said:


    There's a difference between reasonably analysable counterfactuals and those that are just plausible. Most decisions are made by weighing up a best guess at what will happen if I do x versus what will happen if I don't do x. A lot of European integration was driven by fear of further instability and warfare in the continent, including the fear of what could happen in the event of dramatically widening wealth gaps between those on the core and those other countries on the periphery, with which many of the states share land borders. You don't necessarily want a fascist military coup a short tank drive from your own parliament, after all.

    I don't know whether these fears were rational - some decisions could be seen as trauma-driven choices resulting from the scars of the last two wars.But it's too simplistic to say that everything was pure ideological, head-in-sand, fingers-in-ears-singing-lalala refusal to acknowledge the wise warnings of what would go wrong a couple of decades down the road.

    As for what it's like being an ideological right now, well, I wouldn't know. Instinctively, I tend towards capital controls, withholding taxes on cross-border distributions and putting up a big fence round my land in Cornwall before starting growing vegetables there and waiting out the economic meltdown. I'm loosely sceptical about the European project, but that doesn't mean I don't question whether the alternatives could have turned out worse.

    It was CLEARLY ideological. Anyone who objected to the process was called a scare-mongerer or a xenophobe. Has there been war between Norway and Sweden, or between Switzerland and Italy? Or the USA and Mexico? No. Because democracies don't go to war with another. Countries within the EU now have more tension between them than countries like Norway and Switzerland that stayed out.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    In North East they love postal votes....
    18,422 out of 37,417 votes cast in South Shields were by post in 2010
  • @AndreaParma

    Thank you Dr Parma.

    That 10/11 about UKIP coming second now looks a little more attractive.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @jameschappers: Boost for #KM4SS campaign. Constituency bigwig tells Sky candidate must have local links and not be 'parachuted in' like DMil @Kevin_Maguire
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,624
    edited March 2013
    Pulpstar said:

    Ceteris paribus our contribution should remain about the same as it was then seeing as Croatia will be surely contributing to the new budget as it has the good fortune to join the EU ?

    The most developed countries generally pay more and Britain is more developed than average and Croatia less, so Britain's net contribution will probably go up a bit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,520
    SeanT said:

    Just as well there aren't any other 'unsustainable' banking business models like Cyprus in the €-zone, on 7x GDP.....vs the Euro average of 3x

    ......Like Luxembourg (22x), Malta (10x) or Ireland (7x)......

    http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/2013/03/26/13454349c7.htm

    And absolutely nothing to worry about in 4X France, or Netherlands either.....

    Yep. Waiting in line on Euro Death Row: Malta, Slovenia, Luxembourg.


    Malta not comparable to Cyprus: Maltese central bank: VALLETTA (Reuters) - The governor of the Central Bank of... http://t.co/12C2MYdRbm
    I can see the maltese cash if not heading offshore certainly moving to HSBC Malta as if it all goes belly up you still have the considerable resources of HSBC globally behind you. Can't really see HSBC letting its depositors lose money or well if they do the current Cyprus situation will look like monkey nuts.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited March 2013
    For those who believe Labour can't lose South Shields, then Ladbrokes' Evens on UKIP coming second trumps PP's 5/6 on UKIP in their " Winner excl Labour" market.
This discussion has been closed.