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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield reviews the battle of May 2nd – the locals
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield reviews the battle of May 2nd – the locals
Since the PCC elections across the United Kingdom, if you are a Conservative candidate you have either lost the local by-election that you were supposed to have been defending (31 defences, 16 holds, 15 losses), been hit for six in parliamentary by-elections (Best performance: -7.25% in Manchester Central, Worst Performance:
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:oops:
It's true; CY2012Q4 GDP growth was -0.3%!
:looks-at-belly-button:
http://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=3898
IRC seem happy:
"David is an experienced world leader and a man of both action and character,” Rupp said, “as his record as Foreign Secretary — including his work for conflict resolution in the former Yugoslavia, his leadership in calling for a political settlement in Afghanistan, and his drive for education reform in Pakistan and human rights in Sri Lanka — attests. His insights, ability and commitment will be tremendous assets. I look forward to witnessing this next exciting chapter of the IRC’s incredible journey of helping the most desperate people move from harm to home.
A Message from United States President William J. Clinton
"I congratulate the IRC on the appointment of David Miliband as its President. I have known David almost twenty years. He is one of the ablest, most creative public servants of our time.”
http://www.rescue.org/news/david-miliband-former-uk-foreign-secretary-appointed-president-international-rescue-committee-1
Voters deserve better.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9956005/Taxman-hits-stay-at-home-mothers.html
Basically the "discrimination" in the tax system against one-working-parent households in favour of two-working-payment households demonstrated by the OECD to have increased under this government.
You can't help thinking that Cameron's missed an essential point of the Blairite approach to alienating your core vote in order to attract the centre, namely that you have to use policies that don't also alienate the centre. Marriage tax incentives are only really unpopular on the hardcore ideological left, it's the kind of small-c conservative policy that a lot of Labour supporters would really like their party to adopt.
So still shrinking!
See, for instance, Norman Lewis's "Naples '44" - one of the best books about war, ever.
Bitcoin trades at $87
Outside of the harvest of 'funny-farm' postal votes - CPS sanctioned in Tower-Hamlet - nothing much will happen on the electoral-scale. The only challenge may be for the Lib-Dhimmies to reach 17% (which, IIRC, is where Mark Senior expects them to be around-or-about).
Labour are indeed defending Durham which last voted in 2008. LD won overall controll in Bristol in 2009 but they already lost it to NOC.
If this seat is comparable to Rotherham in terms of lab holding steady and con ld losing votes then UKIP at 11/10 is a gift
http://www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2011/7898.html
"Such was the manner of intervention by trade unions that the legitimacy of the electoral college is called into question. Wickham-Jones and Jobson argue that candidates did not have equal and open access to the electorate; the electorate was not fully informed; resources were not equalised; and ballots were not distributed in a neutral manner. They argue that the case for reform of the electoral college is unanswerable."
Con 2nd now @ 13/8
I've bitten.
So Con 2nd = £7 profit, UKIP 2nd = £4 profit on a £38 stake. Can you tell I don't think the LDs have a prayer
About one in every 20 children aged five to 16 has a conduct disorder - persistent and extreme misbehaviour.
The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence guidelines outline how to spot and treat these conditions.
They say parents should play a central role in this.
While all children can be naughty from time to time, the behaviour of children with conduct disorders is different.
They persistently misbehave - both at home and in school - and their actions can be extreme and harmful.
As well as stealing, fighting or vandalising property, they might hurt people and animals, for example.
Prof Steven Pilling, who helped develop the guidelines, said: "Children with conduct disorders are different. It's not a bit of tantruming or getting into trouble now and then. It's picking up the 14in TV and throwing it through the window."
He said it was important that parents be taught how to how to handle this type of behaviour.
"Firmness and saying 'No' is not the solution for these children. We need to get parents to switch the focus from being controlling and punitive to encouraging positive behaviour," he said.
About half of children with antisocial behaviour or conduct disorders not only miss out on parts of their childhood but also go on to have serious mental health problems as adults. Some go on to be repeated offenders."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-21936927
So when they get caught by the police and the courts say NO and imprison them, it is too late - NIHCE has said the method of saying No is not correct.
More useless advice from academia that should be ignored.
He stood in Gateshead in 2010. He's an assistant to Derek Clark MEP.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/next-budget-to-be-revealed-in-october-1.1339774
Agree with Pong that LDs nowhere in this contest. Maybe some value in the Con price too?
Incidentally, when people talk about how well-capitalised Italian banks are, don't believe a word of it. A look at what's been discovered at Banca dei Monti di Paschi di Siena should disabuse anyone of the belief that Italian bank accounts are worth more than the paper they're printed on.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100594911
More useless advice from academia that should be ignored.
Too true. A good clip around the ear or a slipper on the bum is the correct way to address naughty or wayward children. But these days one would end up in jail as abusers of the little darlings.
Your last two sentences are just ridiculous. Yes, it is very obvious that a better outcome was available: no Eurozone. It's absurd to pretend otherwise.
You are your child's parent not their friend.
Or a smaller Eurozone limited to those countries which were really ready for it and had convergent economies: Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands and possibly Austria.
Politically, that would never have worked hence the current mess where everyone wants the nice consequences of a single currency but none of the responsibilities it entails.
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/346537
That'll be just after the 2020 election, when the Tories will likely still be widely disliked and the public will have had five years of Miliband-Balls rule.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4e8iAofnrw
Too many people excuse their children's bad behaviour rather than trying to bring them up properly and teaching their children the difference between right and wrong and the importance of taking responsibility for one's actions and learning from one's mistakes.
http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Interviews/2013_03_26_dombret_sueddeutsche
Just as well there aren't any other € countries with an 'oversized banking system' with lots of foreign (e.g., German) savers and an 'unsustainable business model' then.....
oh.....hang on.....
He's on the council since 1988. I don't know when he became leader. He also worked for a former MEP. Said MEP is also the South Shields CLP Chair. The two of them founded this http://www.sovereignstrategy.com/people/i-malcolm/
Malcolm was already hoping for the seat when Miliband was he was imported in 2001.
He's seen as controversial by some Labourites. But I don't know the details and how much there is in them. Usually people who are at the helm of councils for many years are always seen as controversial. It may depend on the view of the NEC and regional party regarding this.
In the mid 90s, the then Deputy Leader Stephen Hepburn (now MP for Jarrow) got a 75£ fine for having assaulted him.
Obviously Iain Malcom also have a brother who would like to become MP. The brother is called Ed and he's also sitting on ST Council.
Get Richard Littlejohn to head a consortium of taxi drivers, last orders sages and PBTories to set medical guidelines.
"pull yourself together"
"a good clip round the ear"
"I'd soon 'turn' her"
At what level would you stop backing UKIP for 2nd?
10/11 looks ok to me but we've yet to see what candidates the Parties come up with. At Eastleigh, UKIP found a bit of a star whilst the Tories were hampered by the hapless Hutchins.
The Kippers are unlikely to have the same advantages in S Shields.
1. Since 1993, a lot of urban areas have been carved out of the County Councils, to form Unitary Authorities, leaving the hinterland more securely under Conservative control.
2. 2009 was a good year for the Liberal Democrats, in terms of both seats and vote share. Their vote will drop by a similar margin to the Conservatives, compared to four years ago. Most County Councils are Con/Lib Dem battlegrounds.
3. UKIP's impact is hard to determine. They can win a safe Conservative seat (Runnymede), split the right wing vote (Bognor) or take a historically safe Labour ward (Gooshays). They'll probably hurt the Conservatives more than the other two in the County elections, but not consistently.
However, the Conservatives are sure to lose a lot of seats. I think we can assume that Labour will regain all their losses from 2009, compared to 2005 (297) and maybe do a bit better than that. They'll win back Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, and perhaps Nothamptonshire. But, the Conservatives aren't going to lose control of places like Surrey, Kent, Essex, and Hertfordshire, as they did in 1993.
http://dalje.com/en-world/slovenia-to-ratify-croatias-eu-treaty-of-accession-next-tuesday/461038
I know it's difficult being an ideological europhile right now. You have to deal with the non-negotiable premise that European integration has been A Good Thing, yet also the undeniable fact that the process has caused economic devastation for tens of millions. I suppose, in that context, the argument that it could have happened anyway is the best you're left with.
Agreed, Tim. UKIP need Grant 'Sch...you know who' to weave his magic again.
Three bets today at Southwell but I got on early and I see the prices have dropped so judge for yourself whether there is still some value left. In ascending order of merit, the nags and prices I got are:
4.55 Apache Rising 11/4
4.20 Rio Cobolo 9/2
5.30 Al Amaan 9/2
there are going to be an awful lot of upset people if the banks ever reopen.
Using Eastleigh as a comparison it would be 50/50 UKIP/con but I don't think thatisa comparable seat
We learnt that here in 2007 with Northern Rock. The Cypriots are learning the same lesson - but with knobs on - now.
Quite like the 'boob jobs' idea.
Perhaps one of the Main Parties could incorporate it into its manifesto.
Sure vote-winner.
Sounds fair !
At any event, whatever's being said the Cypriots are no longer part of the single currency - they cannot freely transfer their money across borders, cannot even take it out to be spent in Cyprus above certain limits and a Cypriot euro is no longer worth the same as a German euro.
Reading the symptoms of ADHD on wiki, I think it is far too easily diagnosable on children who don't ave anything wrong with them at all except not being interested in school. of course you will dismiss this as anecdotal evidence, but atthe school my Dad worked in the queue for Ritalin stretched round the corridor everyday. It's too easy to just throw pills at unruly kids now, it's the 21st century whiskey on the dummy
Teach them right from wrong at an early age not that every bit of bad behaviour is a disorder treatable by drugs. That would be a better way of keeping them out of prison
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attention_deficit_hyperactivity_disorder
The LibDems stood 0 candidates in South Shields in 2012 locals. So yes, I guess, they won't bother.
The Tories stood everywhere and polled 6.72%, 4.41% , 9.4%, 9.96%, 7.72%, 11.1%, 10.5, 12.36, 23.81 (in a 2 way fight), 2.95%
I don't know whether these fears were rational - some decisions could be seen as trauma-driven choices resulting from the scars of the last two wars.But it's too simplistic to say that everything was pure ideological, head-in-sand, fingers-in-ears-singing-lalala refusal to acknowledge the wise warnings of what would go wrong a couple of decades down the road.
As for what it's like being an ideological right now, well, I wouldn't know. Instinctively, I tend towards capital controls, withholding taxes on cross-border distributions and putting up a big fence round my land in Cornwall before starting growing vegetables there and waiting out the economic meltdown. I'm loosely sceptical about the European project, but that doesn't mean I don't question whether the alternatives could have turned out worse.
Lab 45.9% (-11.7 on 2005)
LD 19.9 (+1.2)
Con 18.8 (+2.3)
Ind 5.9
BNP 5.8
UKIP 3.7
2012 by-election
Lab 60.5
UKIP 11.8
LD 9.9
Con 6.3
Peace Party 6.3
BNP 1.9
Lab -8.8
Con +4.0
LD -5.0
Logistically, being cut-off as an island may have been helpful in olden times, but nowadays? Someone earlier pointed to a zerohedge article saying that big Russian investors got their money out before the clamp down by electronic transfers to unaffected branches in London etc.
Meanwhile the Cypriots are reduced to prelapsarian existence, self-reliance and barter.
......Like Luxembourg (22x), Malta (10x) or Ireland (7x)......
http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/2013/03/26/13454349c7.htm
And absolutely nothing to worry about in 4X France, or Netherlands either.....
Can I place a bet on the UK undershooting the 2.6% growth that the OBR predicted, anyone ?
Apologies for posting that slightly twattish tweet by Bruno Waterfield. Obviously if the EU expands to take in a bunch more taxpayers it's going to have a bigger budget, and you don't get to veto things you've already agreed to.
You evaluate those arguments based on a view of the likely counterfactual. So in the wankier form you've cited above, one would be saying "if Britain hadn't entered the Second World War [when we did], the events following 1939 would have been even worse because..."
Isn't that exactly what one would say when discussing WWII?
All I'm asking is what underlies the certainty that monetary union is "worst" rather than "bad".
18,422 out of 37,417 votes cast in South Shields were by post in 2010
Thank you Dr Parma.
That 10/11 about UKIP coming second now looks a little more attractive.