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Given the Comres polling I expect Cameron to try and rush through a change to a two page ballot paper so that only the Tories, Labour and Libdems appear on the first page of the ballot and all the other parties appear on the second page!Sean_F said:
Yea, it all goes to show how unpopular UKIP have become.anotherDave said:
Yes, and with only 28% of current-Con thinking about voting UKIP, they really can't hope for much over 30% on their best day. Doomed.audreyanne said:
See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.TheScreamingEagles said:John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 40 -
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!0 -
Back in May ComRes online recorded the biggest UKIP share, 38%, in the Euros. Final poll had it on 33%. The party actually got 27%.0
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PaulMidBeds So neither Tories nor Labour would have a majority, nor would Tories and Liberals, Labour and LDs might but dependent on SNP and UKIP seats0
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Again, you're reading too much into the question (at least you're not engaging in polling denying this time)anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on this
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is dangerous to Britain. agree 43%. disagree 34%.
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is good for British democracy, agree 42%
disagree 34%0 -
Polling shows about half of voters say they won't make up their mind.TheScreamingEagles said:
As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.isam said:
Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?TheScreamingEagles said:
Err they did ask that question.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?CarlottaVance said:
What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?Paul_Mid_Beds said:I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another
This suggests not:
Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
Con:,37
Lab: 84
You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
Personally I'm rather skeptical that anything like that number have a realistic prospect of changing.0 -
So we should ignore this poll, and just look at the other best ever UKIP numbers the other pollsters have produced this week?MikeSmithson said:Back in May ComRes online recorded the biggest UKIP share, 38%, in the Euros. Final poll had it on 33%. The party actually got 27%.
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There's so many different variables in this election, I can believe it this time around.corporeal said:
Polling shows about half of voters say they won't make up their mind.TheScreamingEagles said:
As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.isam said:
Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?TheScreamingEagles said:
Err they did ask that question.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?CarlottaVance said:
What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?Paul_Mid_Beds said:I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another
This suggests not:
Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
Con:,37
Lab: 84
You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
Personally I'm rather skeptical that anything like that number have a realistic prospect of changing.0 -
What was that about fruitcakes?Paul_Mid_Beds said:
The 31/29/24 poll givessurbiton said:
Baxterised ?TheScreamingEagles said:John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
C 289
L 307
LD 20
UKIP 5
I think if UKIP get 24% they will get a lot more than 5 and they wont get any of the 5 seats Baxter suggests they will ie
Argyll & Bute
Cambridgeshire (Hupperts Seat !)
Gordon
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey
Devon North (well maybe)
Baxters methodology seems to have UKIP as a some sort of Anti Liberal (in the sense of Antimatter) vote.0 -
What am I denying?TheScreamingEagles said:
You keep on engaging in polling denying, I'm loving it, it reminds me of the Kippers in Kilts.isam said:
Swingback?!TheScreamingEagles said:
Bad news for you lot, is that history shows they tend to go back to the government of the day.isam said:
Would love it if half the voters do change their mindTheScreamingEagles said:
As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.isam said:
Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?TheScreamingEagles said:
Err they did ask that question.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?CarlottaVance said:
What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?Paul_Mid_Beds said:I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another
This suggests not:
Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
Con:,37
Lab: 84
You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
When you look at the breakdowns from Ashcroft polls of the % of voters from each party who would consider changing their mind, if they all did, it would be better for the small parties than the big 2
Still the twisting on here that the polls are bad for UKIP at the moment is good value entertainment, keep it coming!
http://may2015.com/ideas/what-does-history-suggest-will-happen-in-the-polls/0 -
Yay that ComRes shows we're becoming more Pro-EU.0
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It's OK to feel hurt. It's not you, it's them. Those Labour types have let you down. Shoddy behaviour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Again, you're reading too much into the question (at least you're not engaging in polling denying this time)anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on this
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is dangerous to Britain. agree 43%. disagree 34%.
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is good for British democracy, agree 42%
disagree 34%0 -
Significant movement on acceptance of freedom of movement - still net negative, but well ahead of last year.
All citizens of the EU should have the right to live & work in the UK -
net agree (vs Aug 12): -10 (+24)
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I'm not hurt, again, no comment from you on the polling that doesn't show UKIP in a good light. I'm sure in a few weeks time you'll tell us it doesn't exist.anotherDave said:
It's OK to feel hurt. It's not you, it's them. Those Labour types have let you down. Shoddy behaviour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Again, you're reading too much into the question (at least you're not engaging in polling denying this time)anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on this
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is dangerous to Britain. agree 43%. disagree 34%.
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is good for British democracy, agree 42%
disagree 34%0 -
Which record high for UKIP should we take notice of Mike? Help us out!MikeSmithson said:Back in May ComRes online recorded the biggest UKIP share, 38%, in the Euros. Final poll had it on 33%. The party actually got 27%.
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"Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?
All citizens of other European Union countries should have the right to live and work in the United Kingdom
August 2013
October 2014
Agree
23%
36%
Disagree
57%
46%
Don’t know
20%
19%
· Half of Labour voters (49%) agree that all citizens of other European Union countries should have the right to live and work in the United Kingdom, 36% disagree. Liberal Democrat voters are also more likely to agree than disagree (59% to 23%).
· Half of Conservative voters on the other hand disagree with the principle (51%), compared to only a third (33%) who agree. Three quarters of UKIP voters (75%) disagree."
Source: Comres
oops ! What's happening here ? We are all Europeans now !0 -
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?SouthamObserver said:
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.isam said:
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!SouthamObserver said:
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.EPG said:
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)Socrates said:Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
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You're ignoring the weight of history and other polls, and fixating on one poll/finding that contradicts all others.isam said:
What am I denying?TheScreamingEagles said:
You keep on engaging in polling denying, I'm loving it, it reminds me of the Kippers in Kilts.isam said:
Swingback?!TheScreamingEagles said:
Bad news for you lot, is that history shows they tend to go back to the government of the day.isam said:
Would love it if half the voters do change their mindTheScreamingEagles said:
As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.isam said:
Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?TheScreamingEagles said:
Err they did ask that question.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?CarlottaVance said:
What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?Paul_Mid_Beds said:I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another
This suggests not:
Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
Con:,37
Lab: 84
You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
When you look at the breakdowns from Ashcroft polls of the % of voters from each party who would consider changing their mind, if they all did, it would be better for the small parties than the big 2
Still the twisting on here that the polls are bad for UKIP at the moment is good value entertainment, keep it coming!
http://may2015.com/ideas/what-does-history-suggest-will-happen-in-the-polls/0 -
Cameron swimming against the tideCarlottaVance said:Significant movement on acceptance of freedom of movement - still net negative, but well ahead of last year.
All citizens of the EU should have the right to live & work in the UK -
net agree (vs Aug 12): -10 (+24)
So is Farage, but at least he means it0 -
I'm utterly astonished. How can it be. After all the Oracle of Notting Hill has declared that UKIP will suffer mass tactical voting against them. Has to be a rogue poll just has to be. Oh and look at this other detail of how many of each party would not consider voting for any of the other parties (i.e. how many can be considered Loyal)anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Con 51%
Lab 50%
LD 36%
UKIP 68%
How can that be? We all know that UKIPs vote will collapse when people realise they have to vote for the 'serious parties of government'. The oracle of Notting Hill has declared it so. It is destined to happen.......
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It is almost like he's forgotten Douglas Carswell's victory speech, which included these fine wordsSouthamObserver said:
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.EPG said:
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)Socrates said:Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
Ukip that it must reach out to all communities as he called for it to be the “party for all Britain and all Britons”.....
“We must be a party for all Britain and all Britons, first and second generation as much as every other. Our strength must lie in our breadth. If we stay true to that there is nothing we cannot achieve.”0 -
Import is exactly the right word to use for immigrants because they are imported for the benefit of business. Much the same as we are no longer employees but human resources.SouthamObserver said:
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.isam said:
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!SouthamObserver said:
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.EPG said:
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)Socrates said:Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
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[hug] Hang in there TSE. Tomorrow's another day.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not hurt, again, no comment from you on the polling that doesn't show UKIP in a good light. I'm sure in a few weeks time you'll tell us it doesn't exist.anotherDave said:
It's OK to feel hurt. It's not you, it's them. Those Labour types have let you down. Shoddy behaviour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Again, you're reading too much into the question (at least you're not engaging in polling denying this time)anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on this
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is dangerous to Britain. agree 43%. disagree 34%.
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is good for British democracy, agree 42%
disagree 34%0 -
I haven't. It sounds nasty - almost racist.isam said:
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?SouthamObserver said:
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.isam said:
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!SouthamObserver said:
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.EPG said:
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)Socrates said:Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
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So you're not going to comment on the poll finding I highlighted, I'm not surprised.anotherDave said:
[hug] Hang in there TSE. Tomorrow's another day.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not hurt, again, no comment from you on the polling that doesn't show UKIP in a good light. I'm sure in a few weeks time you'll tell us it doesn't exist.anotherDave said:
It's OK to feel hurt. It's not you, it's them. Those Labour types have let you down. Shoddy behaviour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Again, you're reading too much into the question (at least you're not engaging in polling denying this time)anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on this
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is dangerous to Britain. agree 43%. disagree 34%.
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is good for British democracy, agree 42%
disagree 34%0 -
Of course I have. It leaves me cold. You don't import human beings, you import goods and services.isam said:
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?SouthamObserver said:
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.isam said:
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!SouthamObserver said:
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.EPG said:
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)Socrates said:Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
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Dirty RacistMikeSmithson said:
I haven't. It sounds nasty - almost racist.isam said:
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?SouthamObserver said:
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.isam said:
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!SouthamObserver said:
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.EPG said:
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)Socrates said:Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
"Manchester United legend Gary Neville thinks Premier League is slowly killing itself with foreign imports "
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/manchester-united-legend-gary-neville-40305570 -
That's the spirit!TheScreamingEagles said:
So you're not going to comment on the poll finding I highlighted, I'm not surprised.anotherDave said:
[hug] Hang in there TSE. Tomorrow's another day.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not hurt, again, no comment from you on the polling that doesn't show UKIP in a good light. I'm sure in a few weeks time you'll tell us it doesn't exist.anotherDave said:
It's OK to feel hurt. It's not you, it's them. Those Labour types have let you down. Shoddy behaviour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Again, you're reading too much into the question (at least you're not engaging in polling denying this time)anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on this
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is dangerous to Britain. agree 43%. disagree 34%.
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is good for British democracy, agree 42%
disagree 34%
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So that's a no.anotherDave said:
That's the spirit!TheScreamingEagles said:
So you're not going to comment on the poll finding I highlighted, I'm not surprised.anotherDave said:
[hug] Hang in there TSE. Tomorrow's another day.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not hurt, again, no comment from you on the polling that doesn't show UKIP in a good light. I'm sure in a few weeks time you'll tell us it doesn't exist.anotherDave said:
It's OK to feel hurt. It's not you, it's them. Those Labour types have let you down. Shoddy behaviour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Again, you're reading too much into the question (at least you're not engaging in polling denying this time)anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on this
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is dangerous to Britain. agree 43%. disagree 34%.
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is good for British democracy, agree 42%
disagree 34%
Keep on pretending the polling doesn't exist, and you'll make an arse of yourself like you did earlier on this afternoon.
I'm loving it.0 -
And you should. This is all excellent news. UKIP are toast!TheScreamingEagles said:
So that's a no.anotherDave said:
That's the spirit!TheScreamingEagles said:
So you're not going to comment on the poll finding I highlighted, I'm not surprised.anotherDave said:
[hug] Hang in there TSE. Tomorrow's another day.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not hurt, again, no comment from you on the polling that doesn't show UKIP in a good light. I'm sure in a few weeks time you'll tell us it doesn't exist.anotherDave said:
It's OK to feel hurt. It's not you, it's them. Those Labour types have let you down. Shoddy behaviour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Again, you're reading too much into the question (at least you're not engaging in polling denying this time)anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on this
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is dangerous to Britain. agree 43%. disagree 34%.
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is good for British democracy, agree 42%
disagree 34%
Keep on pretending the polling doesn't exist, and you'll make an arse of yourself like you did earlier on this afternoon.
I'm loving it.
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Good and services and factors of production, Southam. The four commonly agreed factors being land, labour, capital and entrepreneurship.SouthamObserver said:
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.
Except obviously you can't import land - though actually ... turns out you can. (That's a cracking article by the way.)
You do occasionally find economists talking about "imported human capital" under the "labour" heading. Perhaps paradoxically it's a dehumanising term, I'll grant you. But nitpicking at the economic terminology employed by Socrates is silly, because in purely economic terms he's right. Sorry. The sentiment, and the factual accuracy of the reasons he purports for the conscious decision-making which produced the current situation (if conscious decision-making there be - I'm sure on many things we got to where we are by historical accident, and migration policy seems to me to be one of them), are contentious and contendable, though.0 -
Filthy racists at The Guardian frothing at the mouth at "Non EU" imports
Do they mean Africans?
The Guardian are scum
"The Football Association has unveiled detailed proposals to reduce the number of imported players coming into the English game from outside the European Union by up to 50%"
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/sep/17/fa-non-eu-players-english-football0 -
Except Gary Neville never used the word import?isam said:
Dirty RacistMikeSmithson said:
I haven't. It sounds nasty - almost racist.isam said:
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?SouthamObserver said:
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.isam said:
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!SouthamObserver said:
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.EPG said:
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)Socrates said:Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
"Manchester United legend Gary Neville thinks Premier League is slowly killing itself with foreign imports "
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/manchester-united-legend-gary-neville-4030557
Is merely the headline writer isn't it?
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I am fixating on what? Voting Intention???!!TheScreamingEagles said:
You're ignoring the weight of history and other polls, and fixating on one poll/finding that contradicts all others.isam said:
What am I denying?TheScreamingEagles said:
You keep on engaging in polling denying, I'm loving it, it reminds me of the Kippers in Kilts.isam said:
Swingback?!TheScreamingEagles said:
Bad news for you lot, is that history shows they tend to go back to the government of the day.isam said:
Would love it if half the voters do change their mindTheScreamingEagles said:
As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.isam said:
Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?TheScreamingEagles said:
Err they did ask that question.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?CarlottaVance said:
What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?Paul_Mid_Beds said:I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another
This suggests not:
Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
Con:,37
Lab: 84
You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
When you look at the breakdowns from Ashcroft polls of the % of voters from each party who would consider changing their mind, if they all did, it would be better for the small parties than the big 2
Still the twisting on here that the polls are bad for UKIP at the moment is good value entertainment, keep it coming!
http://may2015.com/ideas/what-does-history-suggest-will-happen-in-the-polls/0 -
It's not racist, I don't think; but talking about importing immigrants does dehumanise them. Immigrants make a choice to come here, they are not the passive, inanimate subjects of other people's decisions.MikeSmithson said:
I haven't. It sounds nasty - almost racist.isam said:
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?SouthamObserver said:
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.isam said:
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!SouthamObserver said:
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.EPG said:
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)Socrates said:Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
0 -
This is weird. Prompting for UKIP, also increases the Green's support.
"Con 31% (+2)
Lab 34% (-1)
Lib Dem 7% (0)
UKIP 19% (0)
Green 4% (0)
Other 5% (-1)
(Change since last month in brackets.)
This month, ComRes experimented with including UKIP in its main question, instead of listing it under “Other” parties, by splitting the sample and asking half of respondents, “would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP or some other party?” The results of this this experiment were as follows:
Con 29%
Lab 31%
LD 7%
UKIP 24%
Green 5%
Other 5%"
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/10/18/more-labour-voters-seriously-consider-voting-ukip/0 -
Filthy racist Mirror thenTheScreamingEagles said:
Except Gary Neville never used the word import?isam said:
Dirty RacistMikeSmithson said:
I haven't. It sounds nasty - almost racist.isam said:
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?SouthamObserver said:
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.isam said:
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!SouthamObserver said:
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.EPG said:
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)Socrates said:Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
"Manchester United legend Gary Neville thinks Premier League is slowly killing itself with foreign imports "
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/manchester-united-legend-gary-neville-4030557
Is merely the headline writer isn't it?0 -
Is the 50% sample who were prompted UKIP in the overall total?
If it is, it means the 50% NOT prompted UKIP were:
C 33
L 37
LD 7
UKIP 14
Can anyone get that confirmed?
Implies 10 point UKIP variation.
ie 14% for non prompted 50% + 24% for prompted 50% gives 19% overall.0 -
lolTheScreamingEagles said:
Except Gary Neville never used the word import?isam said:
Dirty RacistMikeSmithson said:
I haven't. It sounds nasty - almost racist.isam said:
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?SouthamObserver said:
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.isam said:
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!SouthamObserver said:
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.EPG said:
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)Socrates said:Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
"Manchester United legend Gary Neville thinks Premier League is slowly killing itself with foreign imports "
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/manchester-united-legend-gary-neville-4030557
Is merely the headline writer isn't it?
so the Mirror are racist ? Like the Guaridan ?0 -
Interesting.TheScreamingEagles said:John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted.
it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
0 -
Imported human capital I get. But imported immigrants are not the same as that. The capital is the commodity, not the human per se. And I disagree it's nitpicking.MyBurningEars said:
Good and services and factors of production, Southam. The four commonly agreed factors being land, labour, capital and entrepreneurship.SouthamObserver said:
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.
Except obviously you can't import land - though actually ... turns out you can. (That's a cracking article by the way.)
You do occasionally find economists talking about "imported human capital" under the "labour" heading. Perhaps paradoxically it's a dehumanising term, I'll grant you. But nitpicking at the economic terminology employed by Socrates is silly, because in purely economic terms he's right. Sorry. The sentiment, and the factual accuracy of the reasons he purports for the conscious decision-making which produced the current situation (if conscious decision-making there be - I'm sure on many things we got to where we are by historical accident, and migration policy seems to me to be one of them), are contentious and contendable, though.
0 -
The ComRes prompting for UKIP question, produces almost identical numbers to Survation's 10 October poll.
Survation: Con 31%, Lab 31%, LD 7%, UKIP 25%
ComRes: Con 29%, Lab 31%, LD 7%, UKIP 24%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#20140 -
Rumour has it that the tories have amended the official name of the party so "An United Kingdom Independence CONSERVATIVE Party" will appear on top of the ballot paper, lol.manofkent2014 said:
Given the Comres polling I expect Cameron to try and rush through a change to a two page ballot paper so that only the Tories, Labour and Libdems appear on the first page of the ballot and all the other parties appear on the second page!Sean_F said:
Yea, it all goes to show how unpopular UKIP have become.anotherDave said:
Yes, and with only 28% of current-Con thinking about voting UKIP, they really can't hope for much over 30% on their best day. Doomed.audreyanne said:
See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.TheScreamingEagles said:John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 40 -
Wish me luck,
I'm off to see The Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.
I expect this film is going to suck, but it least has a member of my future harem, Megan Fox in it.0 -
There was a theory going around a while back that above 18% UKIP takes more votes from Labour.Andy_Cooke said:
Interesting.TheScreamingEagles said:John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted.
it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.0 -
I think that was Survation, around the time of the Eastleigh by-election.manofkent2014 said:
There was a theory going around a while back that above 18% UKIP takes more votes from Labour.Andy_Cooke said:
Interesting.TheScreamingEagles said:John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted.
it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
0 -
Maybe at the time of one of the annual sets of council elections?anotherDave said:
I think that was Survation, around the time of the Eastleigh by-election.manofkent2014 said:
There was a theory going around a while back that above 18% UKIP takes more votes from Labour.Andy_Cooke said:
Interesting.TheScreamingEagles said:John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted.
it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.0 -
The trend over the past two years for the three major parties has been Labour down a lot, UKIP up a lot, Tories up a bit.manofkent2014 said:
There was a theory going around a while back that above 18% UKIP takes more votes from Labour.Andy_Cooke said:
Interesting.TheScreamingEagles said:John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted.
it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
0 -
The Greens look like they're on for a good year.
21% of current-Lab, and 26% of current-LD, and 8% of current-Con could be persuaded to vote Green.0 -
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.0 -
It feels tonight like we are in one of those disastrous periods for UKIP when record polling and election results are the only saving grace... its like the Euros all over again0
-
You're right. May 2013manofkent2014 said:
Maybe at the time of one of the annual sets of council elections?anotherDave said:
I think that was Survation, around the time of the Eastleigh by-election.manofkent2014 said:
There was a theory going around a while back that above 18% UKIP takes more votes from Labour.Andy_Cooke said:
Interesting.TheScreamingEagles said:John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted.
it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
(towards the bottom of the page)
http://survation.com/local-elections-2013-seat-projections-too-conservative/
0 -
When they write the history of the 2015 election, tonight will be seen as the key turning point.isam said:It feels tonight like we are in one of those disastrous periods for UKIP when record polling and election results are the only saving grace... its like the Euros all over again
0 -
Interesting morning canvassing in a marginal Labour Council ward today. A fair few UKIP switchers but mainly ex Labour voters.0
-
UKIP have to know that targetting Labour at the GE is the way forwards - they not only might get some seats but they dramatically improve their chances of having some part in the balance of power and ensuring a referendum.
Trying to build a base at the expense of the Tories now and going hard at Labour next year is precisely what I would do in their position.0 -
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.Sean_F said:
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.0 -
TSE Enjoy, I remember seeing the last Teenage Mutant Turtles film 20 years ago with a friend in 1993. This film has not had great reviews but has been a box office hit0
-
By ex-Labour voters, do you mean not intending to vote?woody662 said:Interesting morning canvassing in a marginal Labour Council ward today. A fair few UKIP switchers but mainly ex Labour voters.
0 -
I don't know how UKIP supporters manage to keep hope alive. They must be just be too stupid to know they're finished.isam said:It feels tonight like we are in one of those disastrous periods for UKIP when record polling and election results are the only saving grace... its like the Euros all over again
0 -
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friendsanotherDave said:
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.Sean_F said:
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
So what if the polls say different?0 -
I see Lord Freud still has his defenders on PB.
Pity others on PB remember his asinine comments on foodbanks.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/demand-for-food-banks-has-nothing-to-do-with-benefits-squeeze-says-work-minister-lord-freud-8684005.html0 -
Immigrants choose to come themselves. They are risk takers. Giving up whatever little they have for an..........uncertain life which they hope will be much better. In many cases, it is not.ZenPagan said:
Import is exactly the right word to use for immigrants because they are imported for the benefit of business. Much the same as we are no longer employees but human resources.SouthamObserver said:
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.isam said:
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!SouthamObserver said:
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.EPG said:
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)Socrates said:Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
0 -
Keep strong, anotherDave, keep strong.anotherDave said:
I don't know how UKIP supporters manage to keep hope alive. They must be just be too stupid to know they're finished.isam said:It feels tonight like we are in one of those disastrous periods for UKIP when record polling and election results are the only saving grace... its like the Euros all over again
0 -
I love that Newark anti-UKIP meme. You can smell the desperation. :-)isam said:
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friendsanotherDave said:
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.Sean_F said:
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
So what if the polls say different?0 -
Why the assumption things will get tougher for UKIP next year? I think it could well go the other way, that the constant reminders of how unlikeable the main parties are with the blanket media coverage of the election campaign will drive UKIP support up even more.audreyanne said:
See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.TheScreamingEagles said:John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 40 -
Thank you. If it wasn't for tea and chocolate, I don't know what I'd do.Ninoinoz said:
Keep strong, anotherDave, keep strong.anotherDave said:
I don't know how UKIP supporters manage to keep hope alive. They must be just be too stupid to know they're finished.isam said:It feels tonight like we are in one of those disastrous periods for UKIP when record polling and election results are the only saving grace... its like the Euros all over again
0 -
In which case, they can go back.surbiton said:
Immigrants choose to come themselves. They are risk takers. Giving up whatever little they have for an..........uncertain life which they hope will be much better. In many cases, it is not.ZenPagan said:
Import is exactly the right word to use for immigrants because they are imported for the benefit of business. Much the same as we are no longer employees but human resources.SouthamObserver said:
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.isam said:
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!SouthamObserver said:
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.EPG said:
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)Socrates said:Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
Of course, refugees cannot go back until the disturbance that caused their flight is over. The Huguenots never returned, as Farage is evidence of.
Incidentally, I've purchased my Christmas cards from the Aid to Church in Need:
http://www.acnuk.org/products.php/577/the-flight-into-egypt0 -
One of my key CCHQ contacts told me after Newark that canvassers had been quite surprised at the "level of cross-overs" from LAB and LD supporters in the by-election. I'm also aware that in Rochester efforts are being made by the Tories to identify potential LAB & LD tactical voters. I've no idea how successful that's been.isam said:
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friendsanotherDave said:
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.Sean_F said:
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
So what if the polls say different?
Anecdote? Maybe but it's just what I do as a political journalist. I trust my sources.0 -
It also shows a profound ignorance of the Newark constituency. It is interesting using that one example and wondering how wrong the 'experts' are regarding other constituencies they know nothing about. Partial anecdotal evidence which reinforces ones own prejudices in that way seems a pretty daft basis for projections.anotherDave said:
I love that Newark anti-UKIP meme. You can smell the desperation. :-)isam said:
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friendsanotherDave said:
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.Sean_F said:
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
So what if the polls say different?0 -
Cambridge University cancels Farage lecture due to protests
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-3c1a-Cambridge-Union-cancels-Farage-lecture#.VELDyvldWjL0 -
Well we all have our sources... Farage standing in Thanet was a nice one. Don't say I didn't tell you #dirtydicksMikeSmithson said:
One of my key CCHQ contacts told me after Newark that canvassers had been quite surprised at the "level of cross-overs" from LAB and LD supporters in the by-election. I'm also aware that in Rochester efforts are being made by the Tories to identify potential LAB & LD tactical voters. I've no idea how successful that's been.isam said:
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friendsanotherDave said:
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.Sean_F said:
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
So what if the polls say different?
Anecdote? Maybe but it's just what I do as a political journalist. I trust my sources.
Think I said that UKIPs S Basildon and E Thurrock candidate would be a surprise too...
0 -
Well, I remember a more recent movie version:HYUFD said:TSE Enjoy, I remember seeing the last Teenage Mutant Turtles film 20 years ago with a friend in 1993. This film has not had great reviews but has been a box office hit
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0453556/?ref_=nv_sr_10 -
The figures do tend to bear it out though unless there was a massive LD-UKIP swing. Likewise, the net Con-Lab swing was only 2% which is far lower than would be expected in a normal by-election with Con defending and Lab in second.Richard_Tyndall said:
It also shows a profound ignorance of the Newark constituency. It is interesting using that one example and wondering how wrong the 'experts' are regarding other constituencies they know nothing about. Partial anecdotal evidence which reinforces ones own prejudices in that way seems a pretty daft basis for projections.anotherDave said:
I love that Newark anti-UKIP meme. You can smell the desperation. :-)isam said:
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friendsanotherDave said:
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.Sean_F said:
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
So what if the polls say different?0 -
And yet as someone who was on the ground throughout that election and who also knows the constituency better than anyone else on here having lived there for 40 years - and who in addition had already accurately predicted the result and the reasons for it long before the election was even called - I can assure you that your acquaintances of acquaintances were wrong. Something that is also backed up by the final numbers.MikeSmithson said:
One of my key CCHQ contacts told me after Newark that canvassers had been quite surprised at the "level of cross-overs" from LAB and LD supporters in the by-election. I'm also aware that in Rochester efforts are being made by the Tories to identify potential LAB & LD tactical voters. I've no idea how successful that's been.isam said:
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friendsanotherDave said:
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.Sean_F said:
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
So what if the polls say different?
Anecdote? Maybe but it's just what I do as a political journalist. I trust my sources.
Edit - of course having no local knowledge at all in Rochester I have absolutely no idea what that means for that by-election.0 -
I do actually think there was some tactical anti-UKIP voting in Newark (Or perhaps anti-Helmer), primarily from labour voters - but it was a particular situation and probably won't be replicated at the GE.anotherDave said:
I love that Newark anti-UKIP meme. You can smell the desperation. :-)isam said:
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friendsanotherDave said:
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.Sean_F said:
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
So what if the polls say different?
It was just a classic 3rd party squeeze tbh - I'm still heavy UKIP in my portfolio as it is something when you are the party people are for or against - that's a good thing, how many tactical anti-Lib Dem votes are there around ?
Precisely :O)
0 -
Nope because the local Labour party was and is still in disarray after more than a decade of infighting with some of the most high profile former Labour councillors still sitting as independents and refusing to help the party. Like I say, local knowledge.david_herdson said:
The figures do tend to bear it out though unless there was a massive LD-UKIP swing. Likewise, the net Con-Lab swing was only 2% which is far lower than would be expected in a normal by-election with Con defending and Lab in second.Richard_Tyndall said:
It also shows a profound ignorance of the Newark constituency. It is interesting using that one example and wondering how wrong the 'experts' are regarding other constituencies they know nothing about. Partial anecdotal evidence which reinforces ones own prejudices in that way seems a pretty daft basis for projections.anotherDave said:
I love that Newark anti-UKIP meme. You can smell the desperation. :-)isam said:
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friendsanotherDave said:
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.Sean_F said:
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
So what if the polls say different?0 -
It is depressing that so many Universities are so against free speech.HYUFD said:Cambridge University cancels Farage lecture due to protests
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-3c1a-Cambridge-Union-cancels-Farage-lecture#.VELDyvldWjL0 -
That was the same line they said after last years council elections, and the Euros this yearDanny565 said:
Why the assumption things will get tougher for UKIP next year? I think it could well go the other way, that the constant reminders of how unlikeable the main parties are with the blanket media coverage of the election campaign will drive UKIP support up even more.audreyanne said:
See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.TheScreamingEagles said:John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4
Short sellers of UKIP on here have sold at about every level below the current one!0 -
You'd think universities would stand up for free speech. They've only got to confront teenagers after all.HYUFD said:Cambridge University cancels Farage lecture due to protests
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-3c1a-Cambridge-Union-cancels-Farage-lecture#.VELDyvldWjL
Poor effort.0 -
Fox Indeed, it means he can just play the victim and portray himself as even more of an anti establishment outsider0
-
Ninoinoz Do not recall that one, so thanks for pointing it out, I believe that was animated, this is live action like the earlier films0
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Doesn't it just mean that they are anti-English?foxinsoxuk said:
It is depressing that so many Universities are so against free speech.HYUFD said:Cambridge University cancels Farage lecture due to protests
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-3c1a-Cambridge-Union-cancels-Farage-lecture#.VELDyvldWjL0 -
Can we conclude that? If the poll is made up of half prompted and half unprompted then each half will have its own margin of error and it'd be risky to judge the results on the basis of the odd point's gain or loss. It might also explain why the Greens appeared to improve from 4 to 5 when UKIP (but not the Greens themselves) were prompted for i.e. they didn't actually improve, they just performed slightly better with a different group of respondents.Andy_Cooke said:
Interesting.TheScreamingEagles said:John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted.
it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.0 -
Labour 2010 votersanotherDave said:
By ex-Labour voters, do you mean not intending to vote?woody662 said:Interesting morning canvassing in a marginal Labour Council ward today. A fair few UKIP switchers but mainly ex Labour voters.
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What is definitely happening though, is a strong anti UKIP sentiment amongst political activists from other partiesRichard_Tyndall said:
Nope because the local Labour party was and is still in disarray after more than a decade of infighting with some of the most high profile former Labour councillors still sitting as independents and refusing to help the party. Like I say, local knowledge.david_herdson said:
The figures do tend to bear it out though unless there was a massive LD-UKIP swing. Likewise, the net Con-Lab swing was only 2% which is far lower than would be expected in a normal by-election with Con defending and Lab in second.Richard_Tyndall said:
It also shows a profound ignorance of the Newark constituency. It is interesting using that one example and wondering how wrong the 'experts' are regarding other constituencies they know nothing about. Partial anecdotal evidence which reinforces ones own prejudices in that way seems a pretty daft basis for projections.anotherDave said:
I love that Newark anti-UKIP meme. You can smell the desperation. :-)isam said:
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friendsanotherDave said:
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.Sean_F said:
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
So what if the polls say different?
Obviously we have Hope Not Hate and Stand Up To Ukip to contend with.. last week in Clacton MacDonalds, people form these organisations were making loud anti muslim comments while wearing UKIP badges, and on Thursday in Thurrock Labour canvassers were caught telling people that UKIP wanted to bring in Gas Chambers!!
A Labour MEP has also been tweeting that UKIP want to abort disabled foetuses, and barely a day goes past without the "Charge to see GP" or "Flat Tax" lies being regurgitated
They should read PB! They'd be reassured UKIP are on the downward drift!
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comparing the "would seriously consider voting for" number with ComRes latest favourable/unfavourable numbers. They seem to be measuring the same thing.
Conservative Party
Lab favourable: 6%
Lab would vote: 5%
LD favourable: 20%
LD would vote: 19%
UKIP favourable: 8%
UKIP would vote: 16%
--------
UKIP
Con favourable: 28%
Con would vote: 28%
Lab favourable: 12%
Lab would vote: 16%
LD favourable: 10%
LD would vote: 9%
------------
Labour Party
Con favourable: 2%
Con would vote: 8%
LD favourable: 20%
LD would vote: 25%
UKIP favourable: 9%
UKIP would vote: 10%
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/IoS_SM_Political_Poll_28th_September_2014_8723.pdf0 -
Universities have long been bastions of conformity, and hostile to free speech.foxinsoxuk said:
It is depressing that so many Universities are so against free speech.HYUFD said:Cambridge University cancels Farage lecture due to protests
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-3c1a-Cambridge-Union-cancels-Farage-lecture#.VELDyvldWjL
Back in the day, Bristol banned people like Michael Stern, Keith Joseph, and William Waldegrave because they were "racists and fascists."
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Also rumours of residents of Rochester being phoned saying Reckless is a drunk!0
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Depressingly it's the same here for the most part.foxinsoxuk said:
It is depressing that so many Universities are so against free speech.HYUFD said:Cambridge University cancels Farage lecture due to protests
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-3c1a-Cambridge-Union-cancels-Farage-lecture#.VELDyvldWjL
No red ferries either :-)0 -
And do they intend to vote labour in 2015, or are they saying they won't vote?woody662 said:
Labour 2010 votersanotherDave said:
By ex-Labour voters, do you mean not intending to vote?woody662 said:Interesting morning canvassing in a marginal Labour Council ward today. A fair few UKIP switchers but mainly ex Labour voters.
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isam
What is definitely happening though, is a strong anti UKIP sentiment amongst political activists from other parties That's a sentiment really worth highlighting.
Obviously, when fitalass and I both excoriate SLab as being useless, self-interested, and with zero potential competence as a governing party, that's because we are in collusion.
The alternative (given that we also excoriate each other's party), is that political activists from every party exhibit sentiments against the other parties.0 -
Chart: Comres 2010-2014
Although the initial UKIP rise was at the expense of the Conservatives, since 2013 Cons have flat-lined and it's Labour and LibDem that have lost out to UKIP.
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Oh ! It will be YOU !!isam said:
Well we all have our sources... Farage standing in Thanet was a nice one. Don't say I didn't tell you #dirtydicksMikeSmithson said:
One of my key CCHQ contacts told me after Newark that canvassers had been quite surprised at the "level of cross-overs" from LAB and LD supporters in the by-election. I'm also aware that in Rochester efforts are being made by the Tories to identify potential LAB & LD tactical voters. I've no idea how successful that's been.isam said:
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friendsanotherDave said:
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.Sean_F said:
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
So what if the polls say different?
Anecdote? Maybe but it's just what I do as a political journalist. I trust my sources.
Think I said that UKIPs S Basildon and E Thurrock candidate would be a surprise too...0 -
We can't conclude that, certainly, but it does potentially imply it. It'd need corroboration from more polls, preferably from other pollsters.david_herdson said:
Can we conclude that? If the poll is made up of half prompted and half unprompted then each half will have its own margin of error and it'd be risky to judge the results on the basis of the odd point's gain or loss. It might also explain why the Greens appeared to improve from 4 to 5 when UKIP (but not the Greens themselves) were prompted for i.e. they didn't actually improve, they just performed slightly better with a different group of respondents.Andy_Cooke said:
Interesting.TheScreamingEagles said:John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted.
it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
At the least, it strongly implies that the preferential drift from Cons no longer is anywhere near as strong a factor at higher levels of UKIP support0 -
Thanks for that.MarkHopkins said:
Chart: Comres 2010-2014
Although the initial UKIP rise was at the expense of the Conservatives, since 2013 Cons have flat-lined and it's Labour and LibDem that have lost out to UKIP.
It's funny, looking at the graph UKIP seems to experience bigger month to month swings than the other parties.
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Yes of course, but they don't often wear rosettes of other parties so they are overheard sounding racist, and they don't accuse other parties of wanting to introduce gas chambersoldnat said:isam
What is definitely happening though, is a strong anti UKIP sentiment amongst political activists from other parties That's a sentiment really worth highlighting.
Obviously, when fitalass and I both excoriate SLab as being useless, self-interested, and with zero potential competence as a governing party, that's because we are in collusion.
The alternative (given that we also excoriate each other's party), is that political activists from every party exhibit sentiments against the other parties.0 -
Except that flat tax was in the UKIP manifesto, and leading kippers such as Nuttal and Carswell have proposed breaking up the NHS.isam said:
What is definitely happening though, is a strong anti UKIP sentiment amongst political activists from other partiesRichard_Tyndall said:
Nope because the localdavid_herdson said:
The figures do tend to bear it out though unless there was a massive LD-UKIP swing. Likewise, the net Con-Lab swing was only 2% which is far lower than would be expected in a normal by-election with Con defending and Lab in second.Richard_Tyndall said:
It also shows a profound ignorance of the Newark constituency.anotherDave said:
I love that Newark anti-UKIP meme. You can smell the desperation. :-)isam said:
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friendsanotherDave said:
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.Sean_F said:
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.anotherDave said:
@TSECarlottaVance said:
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
So what if the polls say different?
Obviously we have Hope Not Hate and Stand Up To Ukip to contend with.. last week in Clacton MacDonalds, people form these organisations were making loud anti muslim comments while wearing UKIP badges, and on Thursday in Thurrock Labour canvassers were caught telling people that UKIP wanted to bring in Gas Chambers!!
A Labour MEP has also been tweeting that UKIP want to abort disabled foetuses, and barely a day goes past without the "Charge to see GP" or "Flat Tax" lies being regurgitated
They should read PB! They'd be reassured UKIP are on the downward drift!
I am a bit sceptical of the supposed false flag kippers in Clacton McDonalds making anti Muslim comments, not least because in many parts of the country anti-Muslim comments would drive up the vote.
UKIP remain a wolf in sheeps clothing, with the major figures all being from the anti-welfare state right wing of the Conservative party.
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The split samples in the ComRes poll were smaller than you'd expect in an online poll. 782 in the main one. So I wouldn't read too much into it apart from the fact that the prompt does give a boost to UKIP.david_herdson said:
Can we conclude that? If the poll is made up of half prompted and half unprompted then each half will have its own margin of error and it'd be risky to judge the results on the basis of the odd point's gain or loss. It might also explain why the Greens appeared to improve from 4 to 5 when UKIP (but not the Greens themselves) were prompted for i.e. they didn't actually improve, they just performed slightly better with a different group of respondents.Andy_Cooke said:
Interesting.TheScreamingEagles said:John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted.
it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
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Just for the record, 19% is an excellent score for UKIP with ComRes but it's not a record. They polled 20% on 10/4/14.isam said:
Yep, these record highs are a real disappointmentaudreyanne said:
See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.TheScreamingEagles said:John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4
The 24% would be a record although as the methodology's different, it's not strictly comparable and in any case, isn't a published headline result so doesn't count in the same way. It'll be interesting to see if they adopt a 'four party named' approach from now on. They ought to given the support for UKIP in the country and the likely number of candidates to be fielded next year.0
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