See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.
Yes, and with only 28% of current-Con thinking about voting UKIP, they really can't hope for much over 30% on their best day. Doomed.
Yea, it all goes to show how unpopular UKIP have become.
Given the Comres polling I expect Cameron to try and rush through a change to a two page ballot paper so that only the Tories, Labour and Libdems appear on the first page of the ballot and all the other parties appear on the second page!
PaulMidBeds So neither Tories nor Labour would have a majority, nor would Tories and Liberals, Labour and LDs might but dependent on SNP and UKIP seats
I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another
What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?
This suggests not:
Lab Voters think the party is extreme: Con:,37 Lab: 84
And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?
Err they did ask that question.
You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?
As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.
Polling shows about half of voters say they won't make up their mind.
Personally I'm rather skeptical that anything like that number have a realistic prospect of changing.
I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another
What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?
This suggests not:
Lab Voters think the party is extreme: Con:,37 Lab: 84
And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?
Err they did ask that question.
You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?
As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.
Polling shows about half of voters say they won't make up their mind.
Personally I'm rather skeptical that anything like that number have a realistic prospect of changing.
There's so many different variables in this election, I can believe it this time around.
I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another
What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?
This suggests not:
Lab Voters think the party is extreme: Con:,37 Lab: 84
And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?
Err they did ask that question.
You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?
As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.
Would love it if half the voters do change their mind
Bad news for you lot, is that history shows they tend to go back to the government of the day.
Swingback?!
When you look at the breakdowns from Ashcroft polls of the % of voters from each party who would consider changing their mind, if they all did, it would be better for the small parties than the big 2
Still the twisting on here that the polls are bad for UKIP at the moment is good value entertainment, keep it coming!
You keep on engaging in polling denying, I'm loving it, it reminds me of the Kippers in Kilts.
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Again, you're reading too much into the question (at least you're not engaging in polling denying this time)
Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on this
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is dangerous to Britain. agree 43%. disagree 34%.
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is good for British democracy, agree 42% disagree 34%
It's OK to feel hurt. It's not you, it's them. Those Labour types have let you down. Shoddy behaviour.
I'm not hurt, again, no comment from you on the polling that doesn't show UKIP in a good light. I'm sure in a few weeks time you'll tell us it doesn't exist.
"Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? All citizens of other European Union countries should have the right to live and work in the United Kingdom
August 2013
October 2014 Agree
23%
36% Disagree
57%
46% Don’t know
20%
19% · Half of Labour voters (49%) agree that all citizens of other European Union countries should have the right to live and work in the United Kingdom, 36% disagree. Liberal Democrat voters are also more likely to agree than disagree (59% to 23%). · Half of Conservative voters on the other hand disagree with the principle (51%), compared to only a third (33%) who agree. Three quarters of UKIP voters (75%) disagree."
Source: Comres
oops ! What's happening here ? We are all Europeans now !
Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?
I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another
What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?
This suggests not:
Lab Voters think the party is extreme: Con:,37 Lab: 84
And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?
Err they did ask that question.
You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?
As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.
Would love it if half the voters do change their mind
Bad news for you lot, is that history shows they tend to go back to the government of the day.
Swingback?!
When you look at the breakdowns from Ashcroft polls of the % of voters from each party who would consider changing their mind, if they all did, it would be better for the small parties than the big 2
Still the twisting on here that the polls are bad for UKIP at the moment is good value entertainment, keep it coming!
You keep on engaging in polling denying, I'm loving it, it reminds me of the Kippers in Kilts.
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
I'm utterly astonished. How can it be. After all the Oracle of Notting Hill has declared that UKIP will suffer mass tactical voting against them. Has to be a rogue poll just has to be. Oh and look at this other detail of how many of each party would not consider voting for any of the other parties (i.e. how many can be considered Loyal)
Con 51% Lab 50% LD 36% UKIP 68%
How can that be? We all know that UKIPs vote will collapse when people realise they have to vote for the 'serious parties of government'. The oracle of Notting Hill has declared it so. It is destined to happen.......
Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.
Import is exactly the right word to use for immigrants because they are imported for the benefit of business. Much the same as we are no longer employees but human resources.
Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.
It is almost like he's forgotten Douglas Carswell's victory speech, which included these fine words
Ukip that it must reach out to all communities as he called for it to be the “party for all Britain and all Britons”.....
“We must be a party for all Britain and all Britons, first and second generation as much as every other. Our strength must lie in our breadth. If we stay true to that there is nothing we cannot achieve.”
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Again, you're reading too much into the question (at least you're not engaging in polling denying this time)
Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on this
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is dangerous to Britain. agree 43%. disagree 34%.
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is good for British democracy, agree 42% disagree 34%
It's OK to feel hurt. It's not you, it's them. Those Labour types have let you down. Shoddy behaviour.
I'm not hurt, again, no comment from you on the polling that doesn't show UKIP in a good light. I'm sure in a few weeks time you'll tell us it doesn't exist.
Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Again, you're reading too much into the question (at least you're not engaging in polling denying this time)
Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on this
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is dangerous to Britain. agree 43%. disagree 34%.
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is good for British democracy, agree 42% disagree 34%
It's OK to feel hurt. It's not you, it's them. Those Labour types have let you down. Shoddy behaviour.
I'm not hurt, again, no comment from you on the polling that doesn't show UKIP in a good light. I'm sure in a few weeks time you'll tell us it doesn't exist.
[hug] Hang in there TSE. Tomorrow's another day.
So you're not going to comment on the poll finding I highlighted, I'm not surprised.
Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?
Of course I have. It leaves me cold. You don't import human beings, you import goods and services.
Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?
I haven't. It sounds nasty - almost racist.
Dirty Racist
"Manchester United legend Gary Neville thinks Premier League is slowly killing itself with foreign imports "
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Again, you're reading too much into the question (at least you're not engaging in polling denying this time)
Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on this
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is dangerous to Britain. agree 43%. disagree 34%.
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is good for British democracy, agree 42% disagree 34%
It's OK to feel hurt. It's not you, it's them. Those Labour types have let you down. Shoddy behaviour.
I'm not hurt, again, no comment from you on the polling that doesn't show UKIP in a good light. I'm sure in a few weeks time you'll tell us it doesn't exist.
[hug] Hang in there TSE. Tomorrow's another day.
So you're not going to comment on the poll finding I highlighted, I'm not surprised.
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Again, you're reading too much into the question (at least you're not engaging in polling denying this time)
Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on this
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is dangerous to Britain. agree 43%. disagree 34%.
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is good for British democracy, agree 42% disagree 34%
It's OK to feel hurt. It's not you, it's them. Those Labour types have let you down. Shoddy behaviour.
I'm not hurt, again, no comment from you on the polling that doesn't show UKIP in a good light. I'm sure in a few weeks time you'll tell us it doesn't exist.
[hug] Hang in there TSE. Tomorrow's another day.
So you're not going to comment on the poll finding I highlighted, I'm not surprised.
That's the spirit!
So that's a no.
Keep on pretending the polling doesn't exist, and you'll make an arse of yourself like you did earlier on this afternoon.
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Again, you're reading too much into the question (at least you're not engaging in polling denying this time)
Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on this
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is dangerous to Britain. agree 43%. disagree 34%.
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is good for British democracy, agree 42% disagree 34%
It's OK to feel hurt. It's not you, it's them. Those Labour types have let you down. Shoddy behaviour.
I'm not hurt, again, no comment from you on the polling that doesn't show UKIP in a good light. I'm sure in a few weeks time you'll tell us it doesn't exist.
[hug] Hang in there TSE. Tomorrow's another day.
So you're not going to comment on the poll finding I highlighted, I'm not surprised.
That's the spirit!
So that's a no.
Keep on pretending the polling doesn't exist, and you'll make an arse of yourself like you did earlier on this afternoon.
I'm loving it.
And you should. This is all excellent news. UKIP are toast!
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.
Good and services and factors of production, Southam. The four commonly agreed factors being land, labour, capital and entrepreneurship.
You do occasionally find economists talking about "imported human capital" under the "labour" heading. Perhaps paradoxically it's a dehumanising term, I'll grant you. But nitpicking at the economic terminology employed by Socrates is silly, because in purely economic terms he's right. Sorry. The sentiment, and the factual accuracy of the reasons he purports for the conscious decision-making which produced the current situation (if conscious decision-making there be - I'm sure on many things we got to where we are by historical accident, and migration policy seems to me to be one of them), are contentious and contendable, though.
Filthy racists at The Guardian frothing at the mouth at "Non EU" imports
Do they mean Africans?
The Guardian are scum
"The Football Association has unveiled detailed proposals to reduce the number of imported players coming into the English game from outside the European Union by up to 50%"
Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?
I haven't. It sounds nasty - almost racist.
Dirty Racist
"Manchester United legend Gary Neville thinks Premier League is slowly killing itself with foreign imports "
I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another
What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?
This suggests not:
Lab Voters think the party is extreme: Con:,37 Lab: 84
And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?
Err they did ask that question.
You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?
As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.
Would love it if half the voters do change their mind
Bad news for you lot, is that history shows they tend to go back to the government of the day.
Swingback?!
When you look at the breakdowns from Ashcroft polls of the % of voters from each party who would consider changing their mind, if they all did, it would be better for the small parties than the big 2
Still the twisting on here that the polls are bad for UKIP at the moment is good value entertainment, keep it coming!
You keep on engaging in polling denying, I'm loving it, it reminds me of the Kippers in Kilts.
Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?
I haven't. It sounds nasty - almost racist.
It's not racist, I don't think; but talking about importing immigrants does dehumanise them. Immigrants make a choice to come here, they are not the passive, inanimate subjects of other people's decisions.
This is weird. Prompting for UKIP, also increases the Green's support.
"Con 31% (+2) Lab 34% (-1) Lib Dem 7% (0) UKIP 19% (0) Green 4% (0) Other 5% (-1)
(Change since last month in brackets.)
This month, ComRes experimented with including UKIP in its main question, instead of listing it under “Other” parties, by splitting the sample and asking half of respondents, “would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP or some other party?” The results of this this experiment were as follows:
Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?
I haven't. It sounds nasty - almost racist.
Dirty Racist
"Manchester United legend Gary Neville thinks Premier League is slowly killing itself with foreign imports "
Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.
Haven't you ever heard the term "foreign import" used to refer to a human before?
I haven't. It sounds nasty - almost racist.
Dirty Racist
"Manchester United legend Gary Neville thinks Premier League is slowly killing itself with foreign imports "
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
Interesting. The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted. it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.
Good and services and factors of production, Southam. The four commonly agreed factors being land, labour, capital and entrepreneurship.
You do occasionally find economists talking about "imported human capital" under the "labour" heading. Perhaps paradoxically it's a dehumanising term, I'll grant you. But nitpicking at the economic terminology employed by Socrates is silly, because in purely economic terms he's right. Sorry. The sentiment, and the factual accuracy of the reasons he purports for the conscious decision-making which produced the current situation (if conscious decision-making there be - I'm sure on many things we got to where we are by historical accident, and migration policy seems to me to be one of them), are contentious and contendable, though.
Imported human capital I get. But imported immigrants are not the same as that. The capital is the commodity, not the human per se. And I disagree it's nitpicking.
See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.
Yes, and with only 28% of current-Con thinking about voting UKIP, they really can't hope for much over 30% on their best day. Doomed.
Yea, it all goes to show how unpopular UKIP have become.
Given the Comres polling I expect Cameron to try and rush through a change to a two page ballot paper so that only the Tories, Labour and Libdems appear on the first page of the ballot and all the other parties appear on the second page!
Rumour has it that the tories have amended the official name of the party so "An United Kingdom Independence CONSERVATIVE Party" will appear on top of the ballot paper, lol.
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
Interesting. The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted. it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
There was a theory going around a while back that above 18% UKIP takes more votes from Labour.
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
Interesting. The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted. it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
There was a theory going around a while back that above 18% UKIP takes more votes from Labour.
I think that was Survation, around the time of the Eastleigh by-election.
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
Interesting. The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted. it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
There was a theory going around a while back that above 18% UKIP takes more votes from Labour.
I think that was Survation, around the time of the Eastleigh by-election.
Maybe at the time of one of the annual sets of council elections?
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
Interesting. The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted. it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
There was a theory going around a while back that above 18% UKIP takes more votes from Labour.
The trend over the past two years for the three major parties has been Labour down a lot, UKIP up a lot, Tories up a bit.
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
It feels tonight like we are in one of those disastrous periods for UKIP when record polling and election results are the only saving grace... its like the Euros all over again
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
Interesting. The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted. it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
There was a theory going around a while back that above 18% UKIP takes more votes from Labour.
I think that was Survation, around the time of the Eastleigh by-election.
Maybe at the time of one of the annual sets of council elections?
It feels tonight like we are in one of those disastrous periods for UKIP when record polling and election results are the only saving grace... its like the Euros all over again
When they write the history of the 2015 election, tonight will be seen as the key turning point.
UKIP have to know that targetting Labour at the GE is the way forwards - they not only might get some seats but they dramatically improve their chances of having some part in the balance of power and ensuring a referendum.
Trying to build a base at the expense of the Tories now and going hard at Labour next year is precisely what I would do in their position.
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
TSE Enjoy, I remember seeing the last Teenage Mutant Turtles film 20 years ago with a friend in 1993. This film has not had great reviews but has been a box office hit
It feels tonight like we are in one of those disastrous periods for UKIP when record polling and election results are the only saving grace... its like the Euros all over again
I don't know how UKIP supporters manage to keep hope alive. They must be just be too stupid to know they're finished.
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friends
Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.
Import is exactly the right word to use for immigrants because they are imported for the benefit of business. Much the same as we are no longer employees but human resources.
Immigrants choose to come themselves. They are risk takers. Giving up whatever little they have for an..........uncertain life which they hope will be much better. In many cases, it is not.
It feels tonight like we are in one of those disastrous periods for UKIP when record polling and election results are the only saving grace... its like the Euros all over again
I don't know how UKIP supporters manage to keep hope alive. They must be just be too stupid to know they're finished.
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friends
So what if the polls say different?
I love that Newark anti-UKIP meme. You can smell the desperation. :-)
See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.
Why the assumption things will get tougher for UKIP next year? I think it could well go the other way, that the constant reminders of how unlikeable the main parties are with the blanket media coverage of the election campaign will drive UKIP support up even more.
It feels tonight like we are in one of those disastrous periods for UKIP when record polling and election results are the only saving grace... its like the Euros all over again
I don't know how UKIP supporters manage to keep hope alive. They must be just be too stupid to know they're finished.
Keep strong, anotherDave, keep strong.
Thank you. If it wasn't for tea and chocolate, I don't know what I'd do.
Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)
Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.
Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!
If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.
Import is exactly the right word to use for immigrants because they are imported for the benefit of business. Much the same as we are no longer employees but human resources.
Immigrants choose to come themselves. They are risk takers. Giving up whatever little they have for an..........uncertain life which they hope will be much better. In many cases, it is not.
In which case, they can go back.
Of course, refugees cannot go back until the disturbance that caused their flight is over. The Huguenots never returned, as Farage is evidence of.
Incidentally, I've purchased my Christmas cards from the Aid to Church in Need:
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friends
So what if the polls say different?
One of my key CCHQ contacts told me after Newark that canvassers had been quite surprised at the "level of cross-overs" from LAB and LD supporters in the by-election. I'm also aware that in Rochester efforts are being made by the Tories to identify potential LAB & LD tactical voters. I've no idea how successful that's been.
Anecdote? Maybe but it's just what I do as a political journalist. I trust my sources.
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friends
So what if the polls say different?
I love that Newark anti-UKIP meme. You can smell the desperation. :-)
It also shows a profound ignorance of the Newark constituency. It is interesting using that one example and wondering how wrong the 'experts' are regarding other constituencies they know nothing about. Partial anecdotal evidence which reinforces ones own prejudices in that way seems a pretty daft basis for projections.
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friends
So what if the polls say different?
One of my key CCHQ contacts told me after Newark that canvassers had been quite surprised at the "level of cross-overs" from LAB and LD supporters in the by-election. I'm also aware that in Rochester efforts are being made by the Tories to identify potential LAB & LD tactical voters. I've no idea how successful that's been.
Anecdote? Maybe but it's just what I do as a political journalist. I trust my sources.
Well we all have our sources... Farage standing in Thanet was a nice one. Don't say I didn't tell you #dirtydicks
Think I said that UKIPs S Basildon and E Thurrock candidate would be a surprise too...
TSE Enjoy, I remember seeing the last Teenage Mutant Turtles film 20 years ago with a friend in 1993. This film has not had great reviews but has been a box office hit
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friends
So what if the polls say different?
I love that Newark anti-UKIP meme. You can smell the desperation. :-)
It also shows a profound ignorance of the Newark constituency. It is interesting using that one example and wondering how wrong the 'experts' are regarding other constituencies they know nothing about. Partial anecdotal evidence which reinforces ones own prejudices in that way seems a pretty daft basis for projections.
The figures do tend to bear it out though unless there was a massive LD-UKIP swing. Likewise, the net Con-Lab swing was only 2% which is far lower than would be expected in a normal by-election with Con defending and Lab in second.
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friends
So what if the polls say different?
One of my key CCHQ contacts told me after Newark that canvassers had been quite surprised at the "level of cross-overs" from LAB and LD supporters in the by-election. I'm also aware that in Rochester efforts are being made by the Tories to identify potential LAB & LD tactical voters. I've no idea how successful that's been.
Anecdote? Maybe but it's just what I do as a political journalist. I trust my sources.
And yet as someone who was on the ground throughout that election and who also knows the constituency better than anyone else on here having lived there for 40 years - and who in addition had already accurately predicted the result and the reasons for it long before the election was even called - I can assure you that your acquaintances of acquaintances were wrong. Something that is also backed up by the final numbers.
Edit - of course having no local knowledge at all in Rochester I have absolutely no idea what that means for that by-election.
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friends
So what if the polls say different?
I love that Newark anti-UKIP meme. You can smell the desperation. :-)
I do actually think there was some tactical anti-UKIP voting in Newark (Or perhaps anti-Helmer), primarily from labour voters - but it was a particular situation and probably won't be replicated at the GE. It was just a classic 3rd party squeeze tbh - I'm still heavy UKIP in my portfolio as it is something when you are the party people are for or against - that's a good thing, how many tactical anti-Lib Dem votes are there around ?
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friends
So what if the polls say different?
I love that Newark anti-UKIP meme. You can smell the desperation. :-)
It also shows a profound ignorance of the Newark constituency. It is interesting using that one example and wondering how wrong the 'experts' are regarding other constituencies they know nothing about. Partial anecdotal evidence which reinforces ones own prejudices in that way seems a pretty daft basis for projections.
The figures do tend to bear it out though unless there was a massive LD-UKIP swing. Likewise, the net Con-Lab swing was only 2% which is far lower than would be expected in a normal by-election with Con defending and Lab in second.
Nope because the local Labour party was and is still in disarray after more than a decade of infighting with some of the most high profile former Labour councillors still sitting as independents and refusing to help the party. Like I say, local knowledge.
See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.
Why the assumption things will get tougher for UKIP next year? I think it could well go the other way, that the constant reminders of how unlikeable the main parties are with the blanket media coverage of the election campaign will drive UKIP support up even more.
That was the same line they said after last years council elections, and the Euros this year
Short sellers of UKIP on here have sold at about every level below the current one!
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
Interesting. The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted. it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
Can we conclude that? If the poll is made up of half prompted and half unprompted then each half will have its own margin of error and it'd be risky to judge the results on the basis of the odd point's gain or loss. It might also explain why the Greens appeared to improve from 4 to 5 when UKIP (but not the Greens themselves) were prompted for i.e. they didn't actually improve, they just performed slightly better with a different group of respondents.
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friends
So what if the polls say different?
I love that Newark anti-UKIP meme. You can smell the desperation. :-)
It also shows a profound ignorance of the Newark constituency. It is interesting using that one example and wondering how wrong the 'experts' are regarding other constituencies they know nothing about. Partial anecdotal evidence which reinforces ones own prejudices in that way seems a pretty daft basis for projections.
The figures do tend to bear it out though unless there was a massive LD-UKIP swing. Likewise, the net Con-Lab swing was only 2% which is far lower than would be expected in a normal by-election with Con defending and Lab in second.
Nope because the local Labour party was and is still in disarray after more than a decade of infighting with some of the most high profile former Labour councillors still sitting as independents and refusing to help the party. Like I say, local knowledge.
What is definitely happening though, is a strong anti UKIP sentiment amongst political activists from other parties
Obviously we have Hope Not Hate and Stand Up To Ukip to contend with.. last week in Clacton MacDonalds, people form these organisations were making loud anti muslim comments while wearing UKIP badges, and on Thursday in Thurrock Labour canvassers were caught telling people that UKIP wanted to bring in Gas Chambers!!
A Labour MEP has also been tweeting that UKIP want to abort disabled foetuses, and barely a day goes past without the "Charge to see GP" or "Flat Tax" lies being regurgitated
They should read PB! They'd be reassured UKIP are on the downward drift!
comparing the "would seriously consider voting for" number with ComRes latest favourable/unfavourable numbers. They seem to be measuring the same thing.
Conservative Party Lab favourable: 6% Lab would vote: 5%
LD favourable: 20% LD would vote: 19%
UKIP favourable: 8% UKIP would vote: 16%
-------- UKIP Con favourable: 28% Con would vote: 28%
Lab favourable: 12% Lab would vote: 16%
LD favourable: 10% LD would vote: 9%
------------ Labour Party Con favourable: 2% Con would vote: 8%
What is definitely happening though, is a strong anti UKIP sentiment amongst political activists from other parties That's a sentiment really worth highlighting.
Obviously, when fitalass and I both excoriate SLab as being useless, self-interested, and with zero potential competence as a governing party, that's because we are in collusion.
The alternative (given that we also excoriate each other's party), is that political activists from every party exhibit sentiments against the other parties.
Although the initial UKIP rise was at the expense of the Conservatives, since 2013 Cons have flat-lined and it's Labour and LibDem that have lost out to UKIP.
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friends
So what if the polls say different?
One of my key CCHQ contacts told me after Newark that canvassers had been quite surprised at the "level of cross-overs" from LAB and LD supporters in the by-election. I'm also aware that in Rochester efforts are being made by the Tories to identify potential LAB & LD tactical voters. I've no idea how successful that's been.
Anecdote? Maybe but it's just what I do as a political journalist. I trust my sources.
Well we all have our sources... Farage standing in Thanet was a nice one. Don't say I didn't tell you #dirtydicks
Think I said that UKIPs S Basildon and E Thurrock candidate would be a surprise too...
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
Interesting. The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted. it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
Can we conclude that? If the poll is made up of half prompted and half unprompted then each half will have its own margin of error and it'd be risky to judge the results on the basis of the odd point's gain or loss. It might also explain why the Greens appeared to improve from 4 to 5 when UKIP (but not the Greens themselves) were prompted for i.e. they didn't actually improve, they just performed slightly better with a different group of respondents.
We can't conclude that, certainly, but it does potentially imply it. It'd need corroboration from more polls, preferably from other pollsters.
At the least, it strongly implies that the preferential drift from Cons no longer is anywhere near as strong a factor at higher levels of UKIP support
Although the initial UKIP rise was at the expense of the Conservatives, since 2013 Cons have flat-lined and it's Labour and LibDem that have lost out to UKIP.
Thanks for that.
It's funny, looking at the graph UKIP seems to experience bigger month to month swings than the other parties.
What is definitely happening though, is a strong anti UKIP sentiment amongst political activists from other parties That's a sentiment really worth highlighting.
Obviously, when fitalass and I both excoriate SLab as being useless, self-interested, and with zero potential competence as a governing party, that's because we are in collusion.
The alternative (given that we also excoriate each other's party), is that political activists from every party exhibit sentiments against the other parties.
Yes of course, but they don't often wear rosettes of other parties so they are overheard sounding racist, and they don't accuse other parties of wanting to introduce gas chambers
@TSE Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
28% of Conservatives would consider voting UKIP; 8% would consider voting Labour. 16% of Labour supporters would consider voting UKIP; 5% would consider voting Conservative.
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
Election night 2015 is going to be a corker.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
But someone on here heard off someone else that in Newark there were tactical votes against UKIP, and we know that the primary purpose of this site is to analyse anecdotes from friends of friends
So what if the polls say different?
I love that Newark anti-UKIP meme. You can smell the desperation. :-)
It also shows a profound ignorance of the Newark constituency.
The figures do tend to bear it out though unless there was a massive LD-UKIP swing. Likewise, the net Con-Lab swing was only 2% which is far lower than would be expected in a normal by-election with Con defending and Lab in second.
Nope because the local
What is definitely happening though, is a strong anti UKIP sentiment amongst political activists from other parties
Obviously we have Hope Not Hate and Stand Up To Ukip to contend with.. last week in Clacton MacDonalds, people form these organisations were making loud anti muslim comments while wearing UKIP badges, and on Thursday in Thurrock Labour canvassers were caught telling people that UKIP wanted to bring in Gas Chambers!!
A Labour MEP has also been tweeting that UKIP want to abort disabled foetuses, and barely a day goes past without the "Charge to see GP" or "Flat Tax" lies being regurgitated
They should read PB! They'd be reassured UKIP are on the downward drift!
Except that flat tax was in the UKIP manifesto, and leading kippers such as Nuttal and Carswell have proposed breaking up the NHS.
I am a bit sceptical of the supposed false flag kippers in Clacton McDonalds making anti Muslim comments, not least because in many parts of the country anti-Muslim comments would drive up the vote.
UKIP remain a wolf in sheeps clothing, with the major figures all being from the anti-welfare state right wing of the Conservative party.
ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
Interesting. The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted. it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
Can we conclude that? If the poll is made up of half prompted and half unprompted then each half will have its own margin of error and it'd be risky to judge the results on the basis of the odd point's gain or loss. It might also explain why the Greens appeared to improve from 4 to 5 when UKIP (but not the Greens themselves) were prompted for i.e. they didn't actually improve, they just performed slightly better with a different group of respondents.
The split samples in the ComRes poll were smaller than you'd expect in an online poll. 782 in the main one. So I wouldn't read too much into it apart from the fact that the prompt does give a boost to UKIP.
See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.
Yep, these record highs are a real disappointment
Just for the record, 19% is an excellent score for UKIP with ComRes but it's not a record. They polled 20% on 10/4/14.
The 24% would be a record although as the methodology's different, it's not strictly comparable and in any case, isn't a published headline result so doesn't count in the same way. It'll be interesting to see if they adopt a 'four party named' approach from now on. They ought to given the support for UKIP in the country and the likely number of candidates to be fielded next year.
Comments
Those silly Labour supporters have given the wrong answer! They're saying they'd rather vote UKIP than Conservative. Oafs!
Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on this
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is dangerous to Britain. agree 43%. disagree 34%.
Regardless of whether I agree with UKIP, its success is good for British democracy, agree 42%
disagree 34%
Personally I'm rather skeptical that anything like that number have a realistic prospect of changing.
All citizens of the EU should have the right to live & work in the UK -
net agree (vs Aug 12): -10 (+24)
All citizens of other European Union countries should have the right to live and work in the United Kingdom
August 2013
October 2014
Agree
23%
36%
Disagree
57%
46%
Don’t know
20%
19%
· Half of Labour voters (49%) agree that all citizens of other European Union countries should have the right to live and work in the United Kingdom, 36% disagree. Liberal Democrat voters are also more likely to agree than disagree (59% to 23%).
· Half of Conservative voters on the other hand disagree with the principle (51%), compared to only a third (33%) who agree. Three quarters of UKIP voters (75%) disagree."
Source: Comres
oops ! What's happening here ? We are all Europeans now !
So is Farage, but at least he means it
Con 51%
Lab 50%
LD 36%
UKIP 68%
How can that be? We all know that UKIPs vote will collapse when people realise they have to vote for the 'serious parties of government'. The oracle of Notting Hill has declared it so. It is destined to happen.......
Ukip that it must reach out to all communities as he called for it to be the “party for all Britain and all Britons”.....
“We must be a party for all Britain and all Britons, first and second generation as much as every other. Our strength must lie in our breadth. If we stay true to that there is nothing we cannot achieve.”
"Manchester United legend Gary Neville thinks Premier League is slowly killing itself with foreign imports "
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/manchester-united-legend-gary-neville-4030557
Keep on pretending the polling doesn't exist, and you'll make an arse of yourself like you did earlier on this afternoon.
I'm loving it.
Except obviously you can't import land - though actually ... turns out you can. (That's a cracking article by the way.)
You do occasionally find economists talking about "imported human capital" under the "labour" heading. Perhaps paradoxically it's a dehumanising term, I'll grant you. But nitpicking at the economic terminology employed by Socrates is silly, because in purely economic terms he's right. Sorry. The sentiment, and the factual accuracy of the reasons he purports for the conscious decision-making which produced the current situation (if conscious decision-making there be - I'm sure on many things we got to where we are by historical accident, and migration policy seems to me to be one of them), are contentious and contendable, though.
Do they mean Africans?
The Guardian are scum
"The Football Association has unveiled detailed proposals to reduce the number of imported players coming into the English game from outside the European Union by up to 50%"
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/sep/17/fa-non-eu-players-english-football
Is merely the headline writer isn't it?
"Con 31% (+2)
Lab 34% (-1)
Lib Dem 7% (0)
UKIP 19% (0)
Green 4% (0)
Other 5% (-1)
(Change since last month in brackets.)
This month, ComRes experimented with including UKIP in its main question, instead of listing it under “Other” parties, by splitting the sample and asking half of respondents, “would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP or some other party?” The results of this this experiment were as follows:
Con 29%
Lab 31%
LD 7%
UKIP 24%
Green 5%
Other 5%"
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/10/18/more-labour-voters-seriously-consider-voting-ukip/
If it is, it means the 50% NOT prompted UKIP were:
C 33
L 37
LD 7
UKIP 14
Can anyone get that confirmed?
Implies 10 point UKIP variation.
ie 14% for non prompted 50% + 24% for prompted 50% gives 19% overall.
so the Mirror are racist ? Like the Guaridan ?
The drift was more from Lab to UKIP than Con to UKIP when prompted.
it could imply that while the first source for UKIP was primarily from former Cons, the next could actually be from Lab.
Survation: Con 31%, Lab 31%, LD 7%, UKIP 25%
ComRes: Con 29%, Lab 31%, LD 7%, UKIP 24%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
I'm off to see The Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.
I expect this film is going to suck, but it least has a member of my future harem, Megan Fox in it.
21% of current-Lab, and 26% of current-LD, and 8% of current-Con could be persuaded to vote Green.
I don't think UKIP will be suffering from tactical voting.
(towards the bottom of the page)
http://survation.com/local-elections-2013-seat-projections-too-conservative/
Trying to build a base at the expense of the Tories now and going hard at Labour next year is precisely what I would do in their position.
If PB.com add a swear box Mr Smithson will be able to buy a chocolate Nigella Lawson.
So what if the polls say different?
Pity others on PB remember his asinine comments on foodbanks.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/demand-for-food-banks-has-nothing-to-do-with-benefits-squeeze-says-work-minister-lord-freud-8684005.html
Of course, refugees cannot go back until the disturbance that caused their flight is over. The Huguenots never returned, as Farage is evidence of.
Incidentally, I've purchased my Christmas cards from the Aid to Church in Need:
http://www.acnuk.org/products.php/577/the-flight-into-egypt
Anecdote? Maybe but it's just what I do as a political journalist. I trust my sources.
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-3c1a-Cambridge-Union-cancels-Farage-lecture#.VELDyvldWjL
Think I said that UKIPs S Basildon and E Thurrock candidate would be a surprise too...
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0453556/?ref_=nv_sr_1
Edit - of course having no local knowledge at all in Rochester I have absolutely no idea what that means for that by-election.
It was just a classic 3rd party squeeze tbh - I'm still heavy UKIP in my portfolio as it is something when you are the party people are for or against - that's a good thing, how many tactical anti-Lib Dem votes are there around ?
Precisely :O)
Short sellers of UKIP on here have sold at about every level below the current one!
Poor effort.
Obviously we have Hope Not Hate and Stand Up To Ukip to contend with.. last week in Clacton MacDonalds, people form these organisations were making loud anti muslim comments while wearing UKIP badges, and on Thursday in Thurrock Labour canvassers were caught telling people that UKIP wanted to bring in Gas Chambers!!
A Labour MEP has also been tweeting that UKIP want to abort disabled foetuses, and barely a day goes past without the "Charge to see GP" or "Flat Tax" lies being regurgitated
They should read PB! They'd be reassured UKIP are on the downward drift!
Conservative Party
Lab favourable: 6%
Lab would vote: 5%
LD favourable: 20%
LD would vote: 19%
UKIP favourable: 8%
UKIP would vote: 16%
--------
UKIP
Con favourable: 28%
Con would vote: 28%
Lab favourable: 12%
Lab would vote: 16%
LD favourable: 10%
LD would vote: 9%
------------
Labour Party
Con favourable: 2%
Con would vote: 8%
LD favourable: 20%
LD would vote: 25%
UKIP favourable: 9%
UKIP would vote: 10%
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/IoS_SM_Political_Poll_28th_September_2014_8723.pdf
Back in the day, Bristol banned people like Michael Stern, Keith Joseph, and William Waldegrave because they were "racists and fascists."
No red ferries either :-)
What is definitely happening though, is a strong anti UKIP sentiment amongst political activists from other parties That's a sentiment really worth highlighting.
Obviously, when fitalass and I both excoriate SLab as being useless, self-interested, and with zero potential competence as a governing party, that's because we are in collusion.
The alternative (given that we also excoriate each other's party), is that political activists from every party exhibit sentiments against the other parties.
Chart: Comres 2010-2014
Although the initial UKIP rise was at the expense of the Conservatives, since 2013 Cons have flat-lined and it's Labour and LibDem that have lost out to UKIP.
At the least, it strongly implies that the preferential drift from Cons no longer is anywhere near as strong a factor at higher levels of UKIP support
It's funny, looking at the graph UKIP seems to experience bigger month to month swings than the other parties.
I am a bit sceptical of the supposed false flag kippers in Clacton McDonalds making anti Muslim comments, not least because in many parts of the country anti-Muslim comments would drive up the vote.
UKIP remain a wolf in sheeps clothing, with the major figures all being from the anti-welfare state right wing of the Conservative party.
The 24% would be a record although as the methodology's different, it's not strictly comparable and in any case, isn't a published headline result so doesn't count in the same way. It'll be interesting to see if they adopt a 'four party named' approach from now on. They ought to given the support for UKIP in the country and the likely number of candidates to be fielded next year.