Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Stephen Fisher’s latest GE15 forecast is right LAB coul

245

Comments

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,122
    Alanbrooke Though I see Heidi Allen, picked to succeed Andrew Lansley in S Cambridgeshire last weekend, has a degree in Astrophysics from UCL and is now managing director of a family manufacturing business http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2014/10/heidi-allen-wins-south-cambridgeshire-selection.html

    I suppose it is not too surprising though that would be politicians continue to study politics or PPE
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,122
    edited October 2014
    Rishi Sunak was head boy of Winchester College apparently, so a bit of a change from Hague's Wath on Dearne Comprehensive. Then followed by a 1st from Oxford, like Hague, Stanford and Goldman Sachs before founding his own investment firm, also seems to be involved with a number of charities
    http://www.rishisunak.com/
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Rishi Sunak was head boy of Winchester College apparently, so a bit of a change from Hague's Wath on Dean Comprehensive. Then followed by a 1st from Oxford, like Hague, Stanford and Goldman Sachs before founding his own investment firm, also seems to be involved with a number of charities
    http://www.rishisunak.com/

    And he's a Saints fan.

    So all in all, he's had a pretty good day.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,399
    Ishmael_X said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    TOPPING said:

    "Topping

    Oh well, that's allright then Topping. Sure Her Maj is just fine with it. Btw, did she tell you so personally or is it something you just picked up from connexions?

    He didn't act 'gauchely'. He relayed details of conversations she was entitled to think were private. Most of us can understand how that feels.

    The Queen has been dealing all her life with people who are and continue to be gobsmacked to be able to say they have met the queen.

    Dave seems to have been no different which is a phenomenon I have noticed with people who you would have bet would have been as cool as you like.

    As I said, he was intoxicated by his place at the top table and that he was walking along with Mike B. It was gauche and crass but nothing the Queen hasn't seen happen many many times.
    A particularly pathetic and inept bit of stealth boasting.
    Calm down sunshine. I appreciate and sympathise with your personal circs but I have noticed an unnecessary barbed air to your posts of late.

    Which is a shame as you always seemed quite acute on things.

    We all bring here our various experiences in the world, whether it be sci-fi novels, the British Railway system, or our television preferences.

    I, likewise, bring my experiences.
    Sorry, but your theory is just silly since it requires DC after over 4 years as PM of the UK to come over all queer twice, once at talking to HM the Q for what must be at least the hundredth time, and again at meeting a fairly rich former Mayor of New York (not their first meeting). As for your hinted connections, I am privately certain you are the Duke of Norfolk. But keep it to yourself.

    Haha for god's sake man keep it quiet!
    Yes of course you are right but in this instance I think there is some slack as it wasn't egregious and it conveyed the mood more than was a betrayal of confidences so might be put in the 'happens all the time' category.

    As Bob Hope said to me...
    My first post to you requires an apology. Sorry.

    Not at all - you are very kind.

    PB is its own mad world and we all bang and crash around it at various times to various degrees.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,122
    PeterThePunter Indeed, though judging from his CV Richmond is lucky to have him, whether a Southampton fan will go down well in north Yorkshire is another matter, might be sensible to switch to Leeds Utd!
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,328
    edited October 2014
    HYUFD said:

    PeterThePunter Indeed, though judging from his CV Richmond is lucky to have him, whether a Southampton fan will go down well in north Yorkshire is another matter, might be sensible to switch to Leeds Utd!

    It is NEVER sensible to switch to Leeds Utd, Hyufd.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,122
    PeterthePunter Well I assume they are the nearest big team to Richmond, otherwise Barnsley or Sheffield Utd?
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    PeterthePunter Well I assume they are the nearest big team to Richmond, otherwise Barnsley or Sheffield Utd?

    Yes, they are the nearest team, but not the nearest football team.
  • Options
    Come back next week end for new intriguing selections in...

    Havant (Con)
    Swansea East (Lab)
    Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough (Labour)
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    HYUFD said:

    Rishi Sunak was head boy of Winchester College apparently, so a bit of a change from Hague's Wath on Dearne Comprehensive. Then followed by a 1st from Oxford, like Hague, Stanford and Goldman Sachs before founding his own investment firm, also seems to be involved with a number of charities
    http://www.rishisunak.com/

    so he ticks all the boxes of the people who got us in the shit in the first place.

    why should we expect a different outcome ?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    so a bit like Londoners ?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,917

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    At this stage, Labour supporters regard the Tories as the main enemy. And vice versa. Many Tories regard UKIP as being on the same side as them, while many Labour supporters want to see the Tories get humiliated.

    At this stage there's little reason to expect widespread tactical voting against UKIP.

    That could change if either group of supporters came to see UKIP as the main threat, but we aren't there yet.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    so a bit like Londoners ?
    I'm sure Londoners aren't popular with the sponging classes of the provinces. It is the lot of those that sustain the lotus eaters in their lifestyles to be disliked.
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Alanbrooke..Rishi is standing as a Conservative..not Labour
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    so a bit like Londoners ?
    I'm sure Londoners aren't popular with the sponging classes of the provinces. It is the lot of those that sustain the lotus eaters in their lifestyles to be disliked.
    well if you think of your relaives in the Province that way.......
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Alanbrooke..Rishi is standing as a Conservative..not Labour

    I doubt it makes much difference Richard.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    applying PR^2 to Fisher the outcome would be something like

    Con 291
    Lab 240
    UKIP 55
    LD 36
    Nats 10
    NI 18
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    AB..Yes it does...
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    AB..Yes it does...

    he will feel more at home with nick palmer than he ever will with you.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    Rishi Sunak was head boy of Winchester College apparently, so a bit of a change from Hague's Wath on Dearne Comprehensive. Then followed by a 1st from Oxford, like Hague, Stanford and Goldman Sachs before founding his own investment firm, also seems to be involved with a number of charities
    http://www.rishisunak.com/

    so he ticks all the boxes of the people who got us in the shit in the first place.

    why should we expect a different outcome ?
    UKIP surge in richmond?
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Lord Ashcroft might be better holding off doing a survey of Scottish Westminster seats until after the New Year, rather than in the immediate aftermath of the Independence Referendum. I suspect that might give us a far clearer snapshot of Scots voting intentions, tactical or otherwise in key seats at the next GE.

    That projection looks short in terms of Others. How does that 30 break down? 18 NI so 12 GB. 6 SNP, 3 Plaid, 2 UKIP 1 Green? Strikes me as a bit mean to both the SNP and UKIP.

    You can see the SNP picking up some seats from the Lib Dems, so definitely mean.

    Hopefully the Lord A poll on Lab held seats in Scotland will tell us more soon.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    so a bit like Londoners ?
    I'm sure Londoners aren't popular with the sponging classes of the provinces. It is the lot of those that sustain the lotus eaters in their lifestyles to be disliked.
    well if you think of your relaives in the Province that way.......
    If the provincials keep up their irrational hatred of hardworking Londoners and seek to impose insane policies on them that cripple the strongest part of Britain's economy, sooner or later London will lose its sense of historical obligation to the rest of the UK. And the surplus funds we currently transfer from London could be used profitably in improving the world's most vital city.
  • Options

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    fitalass said:

    Lord Ashcroft might be better holding off doing a survey of Scottish Westminster seats until after the New Year, rather than in the immediate aftermath of the Independence Referendum. I suspect that might give us a far clearer snapshot of Scots voting intentions, tactical or otherwise in key seats at the next GE.

    That projection looks short in terms of Others. How does that 30 break down? 18 NI so 12 GB. 6 SNP, 3 Plaid, 2 UKIP 1 Green? Strikes me as a bit mean to both the SNP and UKIP.

    You can see the SNP picking up some seats from the Lib Dems, so definitely mean.

    Hopefully the Lord A poll on Lab held seats in Scotland will tell us more soon.
    Well after the New Year I would suggest, for sensible results!
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited October 2014
    RodCrosby said:

    applying PR^2 to Fisher the outcome would be something like

    Con 291
    Lab 240
    UKIP 55
    LD 36
    Nats 10
    NI 18

    although, take note that under PR^2 Labour would have every incentive to kick its lazy-ass supporters down to a polling-station, thereby increasing its vote and seat total...
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,917
    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    More that we see much of the criticism of UKIP as being paranoid or self-serving.

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    Sean_F said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    At this stage, Labour supporters regard the Tories as the main enemy. And vice versa. Many Tories regard UKIP as being on the same side as them, while many Labour supporters want to see the Tories get humiliated.

    At this stage there's little reason to expect widespread tactical voting against UKIP.

    That could change if either group of supporters came to see UKIP as the main threat, but we aren't there yet.
    The idea that Lab voters will explicitly vote for Cameron and Tories for Miliband is beyond ridiculous

    But I suppose if the people on here are stupid enough to swallow it, at least it will shut up the Tories who say voting UKIP gets you Miliband... hardly a plausible threat from people who are voting Miliband themselves
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    so a bit like Londoners ?
    I'm sure Londoners aren't popular with the sponging classes of the provinces. It is the lot of those that sustain the lotus eaters in their lifestyles to be disliked.
    well if you think of your relaives in the Province that way.......
    If the provincials keep up their irrational hatred of hardworking Londoners and seek to impose insane policies on them that cripple the strongest part of Britain's economy, sooner or later London will lose its sense of historical obligation to the rest of the UK. And the surplus funds we currently transfer from London could be used profitably in improving the world's most vital city.
    probably one of the dafter things you've written.

    London has a fairly transient population. It sucks people in from the provinces and around the world, who then try to make their money and get out.

    as for hardworking, don't make me laugh.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    More that we see much of the criticism of UKIP as being paranoid or self-serving.

    The tone of injured innocence of many kippers at the outrage and disdain they receive is weirdly like that of Frankie Boyle, and about as well-grounded.
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited October 2014
    Alanbrooke..No idea what you mean by that..I dont think anyone could feel at home with NPXMP

    I work in London and work extremely hard...But get well paid for it..and why not
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,122
    Alanbrooke Indeed, but I suppose he was never a SPAD. As I also pointed out Heidi Allen, picked in S Cambridgeshire last weekend, has a degree in Astrophysics from UCL and is managing director of a family manufacturing business
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    so a bit like Londoners ?
    I'm sure Londoners aren't popular with the sponging classes of the provinces. It is the lot of those that sustain the lotus eaters in their lifestyles to be disliked.
    well if you think of your relaives in the Province that way.......
    If the provincials keep up their irrational hatred of hardworking Londoners and seek to impose insane policies on them that cripple the strongest part of Britain's economy, sooner or later London will lose its sense of historical obligation to the rest of the UK. And the surplus funds we currently transfer from London could be used profitably in improving the world's most vital city.
    probably one of the dafter things you've written.

    London has a fairly transient population. It sucks people in from the provinces and around the world, who then try to make their money and get out.

    as for hardworking, don't make me laugh.
    It's ok. As good metropolitan liberals, we'll give generous overseas aid to the Impoverished provinces, though we'll attach strings to make sure that the government of rUK isn't too Neanderthal.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    so a bit like Londoners ?
    I'm sure Londoners aren't popular with the sponging classes of the provinces. It is the lot of those that sustain the lotus eaters in their lifestyles to be disliked.
    well if you think of your relaives in the Province that way.......
    If the provincials keep up their irrational hatred of hardworking Londoners and seek to impose insane policies on them that cripple the strongest part of Britain's economy, sooner or later London will lose its sense of historical obligation to the rest of the UK. And the surplus funds we currently transfer from London could be used profitably in improving the world's most vital city.
    probably one of the dafter things you've written.

    London has a fairly transient population. It sucks people in from the provinces and around the world, who then try to make their money and get out.

    as for hardworking, don't make me laugh.
    It's ok. As good metropolitan liberals, we'll give generous overseas aid to the Impoverished provinces, though we'll attach strings to make sure that the government of rUK isn't too Neanderthal.
    LOL

    that's where Cameron gets it wrong too, he thinks that we vote on wealth rather than numbers of voters. Ultimately you'll do what you're told when we tire of bailing you out.
  • Options
    oldnatoldnat Posts: 136
    I agree that we'll not see much stability till after New Year, or till after the Burns Suppers. Once we all sober up though ..... :-)
    fitalass said:

    Lord Ashcroft might be better holding off doing a survey of Scottish Westminster seats until after the New Year, rather than in the immediate aftermath of the Independence Referendum. I suspect that might give us a far clearer snapshot of Scots voting intentions, tactical or otherwise in key seats at the next GE.

    That projection looks short in terms of Others. How does that 30 break down? 18 NI so 12 GB. 6 SNP, 3 Plaid, 2 UKIP 1 Green? Strikes me as a bit mean to both the SNP and UKIP.

    You can see the SNP picking up some seats from the Lib Dems, so definitely mean.

    Hopefully the Lord A poll on Lab held seats in Scotland will tell us more soon.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    so a bit like Londoners ?
    I'm sure Londoners aren't popular with the sponging classes of the provinces. It is the lot of those that sustain the lotus eaters in their lifestyles to be disliked.
    well if you think of your relaives in the Province that way.......
    If the provincials keep up their irrational hatred of hardworking Londoners and seek to impose insane policies on them that cripple the strongest part of Britain's economy, sooner or later London will lose its sense of historical obligation to the rest of the UK. And the surplus funds we currently transfer from London could be used profitably in improving the world's most vital city.
    probably one of the dafter things you've written.

    London has a fairly transient population. It sucks people in from the provinces and around the world, who then try to make their money and get out.

    as for hardworking, don't make me laugh.
    Antifrank has an obsession with accusing people or groups of being parasitic, which always makes me smile when I remember his profession.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    maaarsh said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    so a bit like Londoners ?
    I'm sure Londoners aren't popular with the sponging classes of the provinces. It is the lot of those that sustain the lotus eaters in their lifestyles to be disliked.
    well if you think of your relaives in the Province that way.......
    If the provincials keep up their irrational hatred of hardworking Londoners and seek to impose insane policies on them that cripple the strongest part of Britain's economy, sooner or later London will lose its sense of historical obligation to the rest of the UK. And the surplus funds we currently transfer from London could be used profitably in improving the world's most vital city.
    probably one of the dafter things you've written.

    London has a fairly transient population. It sucks people in from the provinces and around the world, who then try to make their money and get out.

    as for hardworking, don't make me laugh.
    Antifrank has an obsession with accusing people or groups of being parasitic, which always makes me smile when I remember his profession.
    oh he's simply having his bit of fun.

    remember he's from Norfolk so he thinks Y fronts are swish :-)
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    PeterthePunter Well I assume they are the nearest big team to Richmond, otherwise Barnsley or Sheffield Utd?

    Yes, they are the nearest team, but not the nearest football team.
    Oi, Ed Milliband is a Leeds fan don't ya know!

    Nearest "big" team to Richmond is Middlesbrough of course.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,122
    PeterThePunter I believe Richmond does have a football team, Richmond Town FC which plays in the Wearside League and was aptly known as Cameron United (1960'S) and Young Conservatives (1960's) http://www.richmondtownfc.org/club/History
  • Options
    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    All this endless UKIP wibble, makes me look back to AV discussion with the air of a golden age. There can't be much kool aid left in the country.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,917
    antifrank said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    More that we see much of the criticism of UKIP as being paranoid or self-serving.

    The tone of injured innocence of many kippers at the outrage and disdain they receive is weirdly like that of Frankie Boyle, and about as well-grounded.
    And yet, you've voted in the past for the looniest of the loons, the Green Party. Think what they'd do to London's economy.
  • Options
    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited October 2014

    HYUFD said:

    Rishi Sunak was head boy of Winchester College apparently, so a bit of a change from Hague's Wath on Dearne Comprehensive. Then followed by a 1st from Oxford, like Hague, Stanford and Goldman Sachs before founding his own investment firm, also seems to be involved with a number of charities
    http://www.rishisunak.com/

    so he ticks all the boxes of the people who got us in the shit in the first place.

    why should we expect a different outcome ?
    UKIP surge in richmond?
    Doubt it . Even in the Euros the Tories won both council districts that the Richmond seat is made up from. It will be interesting to see how much UKIP eat into Hague's 23,000 majority but I think that one is a Con Hold......

    Hambleton Euro elections 2014

    Con 39%
    UKIP 29%
    Lab 12%
    Grn 8%
    LD 6%

    Richmondshire Euro Elections 2014

    Con 37%
    UKIP 32%
    Lab 11%
    Grn 9%.
    LD 6%

    UK General Election 2010

    Con 63%
    LD 19%
    Lab 15%
    Grn 3%
  • Options
    John Rentoul @JohnRentoul

    28% of Tory voters would "seriously consider" voting UKIP; & 21% of Labour voters could vote Green: ComRes @IndyOnSunday
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    oldnat, have to agree with you there. :)
    oldnat said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unfortunately the new Scotland poll figures, giving an astonishing 21% swing from Labour to the SNP and a 13% swing from Labour to the Tories in Scotland mean these figures are now outdated, it is looking increasingly possible the SNP and UKIP could hold the balance of power on present numbers

    Let's wait for some actual Scottish polling over a series of polls, before leaping to conclusions. I suspect there is a lot of volatility in Scotland at the moment and, while I'd love to see SLab consigned to oblivion, I'm making no assumptions at the moment.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Good evening, everyone.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    Rishi Sunak was head boy of Winchester College apparently, so a bit of a change from Hague's Wath on Dearne Comprehensive. Then followed by a 1st from Oxford, like Hague, Stanford and Goldman Sachs before founding his own investment firm, also seems to be involved with a number of charities
    http://www.rishisunak.com/

    so he ticks all the boxes of the people who got us in the shit in the first place.

    why should we expect a different outcome ?
    UKIP surge in richmond?
    As an ex resident of the constituency of Richmond, it will be staunchly Tory next time around.

    That said, I do expect UKIP to go up a lot in the seat, mostly because William Hague was very popular (he made Richmond the safest Tory seat in the country at one point)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,122
    The Woodpecker I tend to think of Middlesborough as North East, although it does lie in the ceremonial county of North Yorkshire
  • Options
    Been there Mr Rentoul, so I sympathise

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul

    Apologies. Fat Fingers here just broke my own embargo. Last tweet is for 7.30.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,122
    Alanbrooke Lehmans had a London HQ which was not bailed out of course, albeit a US government decision
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Post polling evidence which supports your hypothesis then.

    We've been here before....this is INDYREF all over again - the true believers oblivious to the data....inconvenient polls waved away as irrelevant.....
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    John Rentoul @JohnRentoul

    28% of Tory voters would "seriously consider" voting UKIP; & 21% of Labour voters could vote Green: ComRes @IndyOnSunday

    Broke his own embargo!
  • Options
    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited October 2014
    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    No we understand perfectly. God after how many times they have banged on and on and on about it (do they talk about anything else?) we really do understand. The only thing is we don't give a flying fornication what they think and we treat such people with the disdain and total contempt they fully deserve.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    HYUFD said:

    Alanbrooke Lehmans had a London HQ which was not bailed out of course, albeit a US government decision

    Oh I don't think that's just a single issue; it's bust banks, rigged interest rates, serial criminality, missold just about everything. The hard thing really, is it could all happen again today as Carney pointed out.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Post polling evidence which supports your hypothesis then.

    We've been here before....this is INDYREF all over again - the true believers oblivious to the data....inconvenient polls waved away as irrelevant.....
    With the difference being that in actual elections where people vote, tens of thousands of people who voted Labour or Tory in 2010 voted UKIP last week
  • Options

    John Rentoul @JohnRentoul

    28% of Tory voters would "seriously consider" voting UKIP; & 21% of Labour voters could vote Green: ComRes @IndyOnSunday

    " 21% of Labour voters could vote Green ".
    A cry for help.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    so a bit like Londoners ?
    I'm sure Londoners aren't popular with the sponging classes of the provinces. It is the lot of those that sustain the lotus eaters in their lifestyles to be disliked.
    well if you think of your relaives in the Province that way.......
    If the provincials keep up their irrational hatred of hardworking Londoners and seek to impose insane policies on them that cripple the strongest part of Britain's economy, sooner or later London will lose its sense of historical obligation to the rest of the UK. And the surplus funds we currently transfer from London could be used profitably in improving the world's most vital city.
    probably one of the dafter things you've written.

    London has a fairly transient population. It sucks people in from the provinces and around the world, who then try to make their money and get out.

    as for hardworking, don't make me laugh.
    It's ok. As good metropolitan liberals, we'll give generous overseas aid to the Impoverished provinces, though we'll attach strings to make sure that the government of rUK isn't too Neanderthal.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    so a bit like Londoners ?
    I'm sure Londoners aren't popular with the sponging classes of the provinces. It is the lot of those that sustain the lotus eaters in their lifestyles to be disliked.
    well if you think of your relaives in the Province that way.......
    If the provincials keep up their irrational hatred of hardworking Londoners and seek to impose insane policies on them that cripple the strongest part of Britain's economy, sooner or later London will lose its sense of historical obligation to the rest of the UK. And the surplus funds we currently transfer from London could be used profitably in improving the world's most vital city.
    probably one of the dafter things you've written.

    London has a fairly transient population. It sucks people in from the provinces and around the world, who then try to make their money and get out.

    as for hardworking, don't make me laugh.
    It's ok. As good metropolitan liberals, we'll give generous overseas aid to the Impoverished provinces, though we'll attach strings to make sure that the government of rUK isn't too Neanderthal.
    LOL

    that's where Cameron gets it wrong too, he thinks that we vote on wealth rather than numbers of voters. Ultimately you'll do what you're told when we tire of bailing you out.
    Remind me which of the London banks were bailed out at the expense of the British taxpayer again?

    (I guess Lloyds is London based, and made the terrible error of helping out the government by buying HBoS. That'll teach them to try and help out.)
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    London only functions thanks to the more sensible voters that commute in every day from the home counties.
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    so a bit like Londoners ?
    I'm sure Londoners aren't popular with the sponging classes of the provinces. It is the lot of those that sustain the lotus eaters in their lifestyles to be disliked.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    All of them via quantitative easing.
    rcs1000 said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    so a bit like Londoners ?
    I'm sure Londoners aren't popular with the sponging classes of the provinces. It is the lot of those that sustain the lotus eaters in their lifestyles to be disliked.
    well if you think of your relaives in the Province that way.......
    If the provincials keep up their irrational hatred of hardworking Londoners and seek to impose insane policies on them that cripple the strongest part of Britain's economy, sooner or later London will lose its sense of historical obligation to the rest of the UK. And the surplus funds we currently transfer from London could be used profitably in improving the world's most vital city.
    probably one of the dafter things you've written.

    London has a fairly transient population. It sucks people in from the provinces and around the world, who then try to make their money and get out.

    as for hardworking, don't make me laugh.
    It's ok. As good metropolitan liberals, we'll give generous overseas aid to the Impoverished provinces, though we'll attach strings to make sure that the government of rUK isn't too Neanderthal.
    LOL

    that's where Cameron gets it wrong too, he thinks that we vote on wealth rather than numbers of voters. Ultimately you'll do what you're told when we tire of bailing you out.
    Remind me which of the London banks were bailed out at the expense of the British taxpayer again?

    (I guess Lloyds is London based, and made the terrible error of helping out the government by buying HBoS. That'll teach them to try and help out.)
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,917

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Post polling evidence which supports your hypothesis then.

    We've been here before....this is INDYREF all over again - the true believers oblivious to the data....inconvenient polls waved away as irrelevant.....
    I suspect that tonight's ComRes poll will show that the proportion of Conservative supporters who'd consider voting Labour is far lower than the 28% who'd consider voting UKIP.
  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    edited October 2014

    John Rentoul @JohnRentoul

    28% of Tory voters would "seriously consider" voting UKIP; & 21% of Labour voters could vote Green: ComRes @IndyOnSunday

    " 21% of Labour voters could vote Green ".
    A cry for help.
    Not many have "seriously considered" it in any by-elections/local elections/European elections yet.
  • Options

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Err they did ask that question.

    You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    rcs1000 said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    so a bit like Londoners ?
    I'm sure Londoners aren't popular with the sponging classes of the provinces. It is the lot of those that sustain the lotus eaters in their lifestyles to be disliked.
    well if you think of your relaives in the Province that way.......
    If the provincials keep up their irrational hatred of hardworking Londoners and seek to impose insane policies on them that cripple the strongest part of Britain's economy, sooner or later London will lose its sense of historical obligation to the rest of the UK. And the surplus funds we currently transfer from London could be used profitably in improving the world's most vital city.
    probably one of the dafter things you've written.

    London has a fairly transient population. It sucks people in from the provinces and around the world, who then try to make their money and get out.

    as for hardworking, don't make me laugh.
    It's ok. As good metropolitan liberals, we'll give generous overseas aid to the Impoverished provinces, though we'll attach strings to make sure that the government of rUK isn't too Neanderthal.
    LOL

    that's where Cameron gets it wrong too, he thinks that we vote on wealth rather than numbers of voters. Ultimately you'll do what you're told when we tire of bailing you out.
    Remind me which of the London banks were bailed out at the expense of the British taxpayer again?

    (I guess Lloyds is London based, and made the terrible error of helping out the government by buying HBoS. That'll teach them to try and help out.)
    Obviously none which is why we had over £1 tillion of financial sector intervention picked up by the tax payer.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    Socrates said:

    Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.

    It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Err they did ask that question.

    You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
    Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Err they did ask that question.

    You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
    I wasn't going to point that out out of compassion for his embarrassment......
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited October 2014
    FPT on how UKIP and Greens would fare in different electoral systems.


    My top-of-my-head thoughts:

    Full list PR. Labour do a good deal worse than FPTP, the Tories a little worse and the Lib Dems, SNP and Plaid a little better. UKIP end up with 100+ MPs and the Greens and other minority parties poll higher than at present. Parliament ends up with a whole profusion of fringe parties with 1-10 MPs but there are still four main blocks. c.40-60 Greens

    List PR operated regionally with a threshold. Zaps all the fringe parties but otherwise as above. With a high-ish threshold (say, 5%), the Greens may struggle in some regions. c.30-50 Greens

    AMS. Depends on the size of the constituencies but if, as in Scotland, we're looking at 15-20 MPs per area (half FPTP, half top-up), then that would also impose a high enough threshold to hit parties polling sub-5%. This effect hit the Scottish Greens in 2011, who were consistently at the cusp of picking up regional seats and only ended up with 2 MSPs (i.e. 1.5% of the parliament) on 4.4% of the vote. c.20-30 Greens.

    STV. Would need much smaller seats to be able to operate - probably 4-7 MPs per constituency. The higher threshold would not only hit the Greens very hard but would start to hit the Lib Dems widely too, and UKIP, Labour and the Tories more selectively. UKIP would particularly suffer from a lack of transfers with Labour probably gaining most due to other left-of-centre parties being eliminated. On current polling however, a Con-UKIP majority government would still be possible. c.10 Greens

    Open lists in STV-sized constituencies (my preferred option). Similar to the above except that the effect of transfers would be eliminated. c.10 Greens.

    Whatever system is used, PR would benefit the smaller parties but the specific choice would have a big impact on by how much each is assisted.

    @david_herdson Many thanks for the excellent top-of-the-head estimates and reasoning, on top of a fine thread header. And apologies for somewhat ballsing up the terminology...
  • Options
    isam said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Err they did ask that question.

    You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
    Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?
    As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    The only thing is we don't give a flying fornication what they think and we treat such people with the disdain and total contempt they fully deserve.
    Yep.....it's INDYREF 2......
  • Options

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Err they did ask that question.

    You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
    I wasn't going to point that out out of compassion for his embarrassment......
    We shouldn't point out the polling facts to these Cyber-Kippers, because you know, we're both out of touch, metropolitan elite, PB Tory fops, we have no idea what's going out on the ground.
  • Options
    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul

    ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983

    isam said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Err they did ask that question.

    You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
    Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?
    As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.
    Would love it if half the voters do change their mind
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    John Rentoul @JohnRentoul

    28% of Tory voters would "seriously consider" voting UKIP; & 21% of Labour voters could vote Green: ComRes @IndyOnSunday

    Good news for UKIP and the Greens.

    2015 gets still harder to predict.
  • Options
    isam said:

    isam said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Err they did ask that question.

    You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
    Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?
    As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.
    Would love it if half the voters do change their mind
    Bad news for you lot, is that history shows they tend to go back to the government of the day.
  • Options
    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Err they did ask that question.

    You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
    Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?
    As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.
    Would love it if half the voters do change their mind
    Bad news for you lot, is that history shows they tend to go back to the government of the day.
    Yep
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    isam said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Err they did ask that question.

    You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
    Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?
    You really should just knuckle down, and vote for a proper political party iSam. UKIP are obviously finished.
  • Options
    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul

    ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4

    See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Err they did ask that question.

    You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
    Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?
    As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.
    Would love it if half the voters do change their mind
    Bad news for you lot, is that history shows they tend to go back to the government of the day.
    Swingback?!

    When you look at the breakdowns from Ashcroft polls of the % of voters from each party who would consider changing their mind, if they all did, it would be better for the small parties than the big 2

    Still the twisting on here that the polls are bad for UKIP at the moment is good value entertainment, keep it coming!
  • Options

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Err they did ask that question.

    You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
    Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?
    As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.
    Would love it if half the voters do change their mind
    Bad news for you lot, is that history shows they tend to go back to the government of the day.
    What like they did in 2010?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Err they did ask that question.

    You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
    Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?
    As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.
    Would love it if half the voters do change their mind
    Bad news for you lot, is that history shows they tend to go back to the government of the day.
    Yep
    yes, but only over time. Give it a decade or so.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Where are the ComRes figures ?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul

    ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4

    See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.
    Yep, these record highs are a real disappointment
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited October 2014

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul

    ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4

    See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.
    Yes, and with only 28% of current-Con thinking about voting UKIP, they really can't hope for much over 30% on their best day. Doomed.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul

    ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24

    Baxterised ?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Err they did ask that question.

    You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
    I wasn't going to point that out out of compassion for his embarrassment......
    We shouldn't point out the polling facts to these Cyber-Kippers, because you know, we're both out of touch, metropolitan elite, PB Tory fops, we have no idea what's going out on the ground.
    I expect we'll be wrong.....like last time......
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    isam said:

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul

    ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4

    See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.
    Yep, these record highs are a real disappointment
    Chin up iSam. Remember, this too shall pass.
  • Options
    EPG said:

    Socrates said:

    Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.

    It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)

    Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,917

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul

    ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4

    See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.
    Yes, and with only 28% of current-Con thinking about voting UKIP, they really can't hope for much over 30% on their best day. Doomed.
    Yea, it all goes to show how unpopular UKIP have become.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    surbiton said:

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul

    ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24

    Baxterised ?
    I suspect small but stable Labour majority.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    surbiton said:

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul

    ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24

    Baxterised ?
    UKIP zero seats
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    isam said:

    surbiton said:

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul

    ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24

    Baxterised ?
    UKIP zero seats
    And fined for scruffy turnout.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983

    EPG said:

    Socrates said:

    Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.

    It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)

    Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.

    Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    @Socrates: Are you an immigrant ? You have a foreign name.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,122
    edited October 2014
    Alanbrooke If there is a next time it would not just be the one bank going bust, I would imagine public opinion would be so strong the Tea Party or UKIP could win on a 'no bailouts' platform. Remember the US House of Representatives initially voted down the bailout
  • Options
    Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited October 2014
    surbiton said:

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul

    ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4 Half sample prompted w UKIP in Q: Lab 31 Con 29 UKIP 24

    Baxterised ?
    The 31/29/24 poll gives

    C 289
    L 307
    LD 20
    UKIP 5

    I think if UKIP get 24% they will get a lot more than 5 and they wont get any of the 5 seats Baxter suggests they will ie

    Argyll & Bute
    Cambridgeshire (Hupperts Seat !)
    Gordon
    Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey
    Devon North (well maybe)

    Baxters methodology seems to have UKIP as a some sort of Anti Liberal (in the sense of Antimatter) vote.
  • Options
    Socrates said:

    London only functions thanks to the more sensible voters that commute in every day from the home counties.

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    Those who think that UKIP is The Voice Of Reason seem unable to understand that a lot of other people think that UKIP are complete fruitloops, and unpleasant ones at that.
    so a bit like Londoners ?
    I'm sure Londoners aren't popular with the sponging classes of the provinces. It is the lot of those that sustain the lotus eaters in their lifestyles to be disliked.
    No, London mainly functions on the back of minimum wage men and women who wake up at the crack of dawn and get buses and tubes to work. The wealth creators tend to live in the places in inner London which a few decades ago were home to large working class communities.

  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Sean_F said:

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul

    ComRes for @IndyOnSunday & @thesundaymirror Lab 34 -1 Con 31 +2 UKIP 19 LD 7 Green 4

    See, for all the froth and breathlessness on pb that's hardly a massive UKIP breakthrough. It's only going to get tougher for them next year.
    Yes, and with only 28% of current-Con thinking about voting UKIP, they really can't hope for much over 30% on their best day. Doomed.
    Yea, it all goes to show how unpopular UKIP have become.
    How foolish UKIP are to trudge on. Still they're all fruitcakes, so they probably just don't know better.
  • Options
    isam said:

    EPG said:

    Socrates said:

    Metropolitan liberals aren't even a majority in London. Its just the left have imported a hell of a lot of ethnic minorities that they have conned into believing you have the same beliefs.

    It's the left conning the liberals conning the metropolitans conning Labour conning the immigrants conning the left conning the (repeat ad infinitum; amend as required for left-wing false consciousness rant)

    Import? You import goods and services. Does Socrates regard immigrants as somehow less than human? Of course, the immigrants arriving from EU countries do not get votes, while many immigrant communities in London are long-established.

    Socrates is Lord Freud, and Southam is Angela Eagle!

    If Socrates did not mean to use the word import when he wrote it he can let us know. The fact is that import is a term that usually applies to goods and services.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    edited October 2014
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I know Labour supporters did that in some places to keep out the BNP. however again. Holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out Neonazis is one thing, holding your nose and voting Tory to keep out a party thats on the same spectrum as the Tories but not full of upper class twits is another

    What polling evidence do you have that Lab voters think UKIP is "on the same spectrum as Tories"?

    This suggests not:

    Lab Voters think the party is extreme:
    Con:,37
    Lab: 84
    And do you seriously think that if Labour voters had been asked the question "Are the Tory Party extreme?" much less than 84% of people would say yes?

    Err they did ask that question.

    You Kippers are really into polling denial aren't you.
    Haven't the polls been awful for us recently?
    As all the polling past and present shows, about half of the voters won't make up their mind until the campaign begins/are ready to change their mind, these supplementaries are useful to see how they will break closer to the election.
    Would love it if half the voters do change their mind
    Bad news for you lot, is that history shows they tend to go back to the government of the day.
    Swingback?!

    When you look at the breakdowns from Ashcroft polls of the % of voters from each party who would consider changing their mind, if they all did, it would be better for the small parties than the big 2

    Still the twisting on here that the polls are bad for UKIP at the moment is good value entertainment, keep it coming!
    You keep on engaging in polling denying, I'm loving it, it reminds me of the Kippers in Kilts.

    http://may2015.com/ideas/what-does-history-suggest-will-happen-in-the-polls/
This discussion has been closed.