LAB has 9% lead in BBC Projected National Share – politicalbetting.com
The figures are:
Comments
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To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...2
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I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.1 -
Interesting times in Brighton - Green Council leader reportedly in trouble to Labour.0
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HYUFD said (previous thread):
House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72
I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.0 -
Indeed The Thrash himself was saying exactly that on Sky earlier – the Celtic nations might carry Labour to a majority, but we cannot forecast that because we don't have any data from there (they aren't voting today)londonpubman said:HYUFD said (previous thread):
House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72
I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.0 -
We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).
Lab +264
Con -470
LD +151
IND -38
Grn +105
RA -4
So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.0 -
I think Labour may well be looking for an additional 20 MPs from Scotland. Which might just be enough.londonpubman said:HYUFD said (previous thread):
House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72
I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.1 -
Greens taking control of Mid Suffolk is interesting.0
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Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.0 -
Greens GAIN Mid Suffolk was not a result I was expecting (with my untrained eye).
Do they control any other councils (other than Brighton)??-1 -
Indeed that's the key factor I thinkDavidL said:
I think Labour may well be looking for an additional 20 MPs from Scotland. Which might just be enough.londonpubman said:HYUFD said (previous thread):
House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72
I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.0 -
The Tories nearly took Slough from Labour gaining 16 seats, that must be one badly run Council0
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LD + Green gains > Labour. Interesting.Benpointer said:We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).
Lab +264
Con -470
LD +151
IND -38
Grn +105
RA -4
So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.0 -
Labour GAIN Dover2
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As I said days ago, whatever happens Keir Starmer will be called crap and Labour "underwhelming".
9 point lead and they lost in a landslide just over 3 years ago3 -
Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.
Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.
As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...2 -
After WWII. Times were difficult for all sorts of reasons, but wartime inflation did fall away.Malmesbury said:
Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.0 -
The 9% lead is decent enough I suppose but is that 35% share and 4-5% Con to Lab swing really good enough for Labour to springboard to victory at the next election particularly from their very low starting point?
Granted there has been a lot of anti-Tory tactical voting going on but I don't know... No wonder Curtice is hedging his bets..0 -
The most bizarre Off Topicking of all time??Anabobazina said:Greens GAIN Mid Suffolk was not a result I was expecting (with my untrained eye).
Do they control any other councils (other than Brighton)??0 -
Not that immediately comes to mind. But, of course, those experts in the BoE and OBR may well know better.Malmesbury said:
Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.
In theory, if you had a burst of inflation from a specific source like gas it could go without wider damage but in practice the ripple effects on wages, goods produced with energy, transport etc spread out and assuming there is not going to be a reaction to that is, well, optimistic.0 -
Or perhaps if they bring on their subs they could turn it around in the second half?Benpointer said:We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).
Lab +264
Con -470
LD +151
IND -38
Grn +105
RA -4
So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.
#why politics is not like football.0 -
It was suggested as a possibility on BBC East the other day. It will be interesting to see what the (to me anyway) rather pro-Tory political correspondent makes of it.Anabobazina said:Greens GAIN Mid Suffolk was not a result I was expecting (with my untrained eye).
Do they control any other councils (other than Brighton)??0 -
Which party were you canvassing for?MarqueeMark said:
Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.
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FPT, South Hams is no posher than Torbay, overall. Salcombe and Dartmouth are outliers.
And Totnes and the Dart Valley are like Summerisle in the Wicker Man.0 -
In summary: not all that great for Labour in terms of their prospects for a majority at the GE, except that the geographic distribution of the swing looks quite favourable to them. So I think we're headed for Labour either just short of a majority, or with a small majority.
But 'Scotland, Scotland?', I hear you ask. Well, quite. The historical comparatives are with the periods when Labour dominated Scottish Westminster seats. They need to do at least as well as, or preferably better than, they've done in the locals in England & Wales, AND claw back a good chunk of the seats they've mislaid in Scotland.3 -
I still think it will prove lower. What is interesting is that over the last 45 minutes or so the number of Labour gains has almost ground to a halt. I wonder if the Lib Dems may get pretty close to catching them once this is over.Benpointer said:We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).
Lab +264
Con -470
LD +151
IND -38
Grn +105
RA -4
So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.0 -
GIN1138 said:
To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...
I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.1 -
Lol How many games do you see the same score in each half? (Apart from the 0-0 ers obvs!)ThomasNashe said:
Or perhaps if they bring on their subs they could turn it around in the second half?Benpointer said:We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).
Lab +264
Con -470
LD +151
IND -38
Grn +105
RA -4
So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.
#why politics is not like football.0 -
Yes, that neatly summarises what is, I think, the most surprising and interesting aspect of all this.TheKitchenCabinet said:
LD + Green gains > Labour. Interesting.Benpointer said:We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).
Lab +264
Con -470
LD +151
IND -38
Grn +105
RA -4
So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.0 -
I don't think that's as interesting as the fact that it's been a good round of elections for all three main non-Tory parties. That pretty strongly suggests to me that people are looking for their best bet to oust the Conservatives, and going for that. That is a bad position for the blues to be in.TheKitchenCabinet said:
LD + Green gains > Labour. Interesting.Benpointer said:We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).
Lab +264
Con -470
LD +151
IND -38
Grn +105
RA -4
So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.1 -
Is that it? On that basis the Tories can return to their constituencies and prepare for (yet more) Government.0
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Conservatives as disliked (maybe more so, but I think you're right about striking/apathetic voters who will largely come home) as 1997. Labour much less popular than 1997 though. Starmer has work to do for a majority, but he should be PM.MarqueeMark said:Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.
Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.
As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...0 -
That's why we should have done what the French did and largely protect consumers and businesses from the energy price spike.DavidL said:
Not that immediately comes to mind. But, of course, those experts in the BoE and OBR may well know better.Malmesbury said:
Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.
In theory, if you had a burst of inflation from a specific source like gas it could go without wider damage but in practice the ripple effects on wages, goods produced with energy, transport etc spread out and assuming there is not going to be a reaction to that is, well, optimistic.0 -
Indeed, and likely to be significant tactical voting too.londonpubman said:HYUFD said (previous thread):
House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72
I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.
Sunak = toast.1 -
OK. But in the vast majority of places the Greens would not have been the obvious choice for the anti-Tory vote.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I don't think that's as interesting as the fact that it's been a good round of elections for all three main non-Tory parties. That pretty strongly suggests to me that people are looking for their best bet to oust the Conservatives, and going for that. That is a bad position for the blues to be in.TheKitchenCabinet said:
LD + Green gains > Labour. Interesting.Benpointer said:We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).
Lab +264
Con -470
LD +151
IND -38
Grn +105
RA -4
So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.0 -
There are no locals in Wales....Richard_Nabavi said:In summary: not all that great for Labour in terms of their prospects for a majority at the GE, except that the geographic distribution of the swing looks quite favourable to them. So I think we're headed for Labour either just short of a majority, or with a small majority.
But 'Scotland, Scotland?', I hear you ask. Well, quite. The historical comparatives are with the periods when Labour dominated Scottish Westminster seats. They need to do at least as well as, or preferably better than, they've done in the locals in England & Wales, AND claw back a good chunk of the seats they've mislaid in Scotland.1 -
Oh, it is a basket case alright. Bankrupted by total incompetence - one of those.NerysHughes said:The Tories nearly took Slough from Labour gaining 16 seats, that must be one badly run Council
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There is no love for the Conservatives in South Hams either.MarqueeMark said:Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.
Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.
As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...0 -
Really? After the total embarrassment that was late Boris and the unmitigated shambles that was Truss, to be only 9% behind? It could and should be a lot worse. I am not suggesting it is a good result. I am suggesting that it is as good as they could expect in very difficult circumstances.Mexicanpete said:GIN1138 said:To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...
I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.0 -
Not really. Green and LD gains are mostly in suburban or Shire areas, Labour in the cities. This round of locals is weighted to LD and Green targets.ThomasNashe said:
Yes, that neatly summarises what is, I think, the most surprising and interesting aspect of all this.TheKitchenCabinet said:
LD + Green gains > Labour. Interesting.Benpointer said:We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).
Lab +264
Con -470
LD +151
IND -38
Grn +105
RA -4
So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.0 -
Anecdata;DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.
Just yesterday went shopping for double glazing, here in the midlands. I started pushing them a bit on price and the boss, clearly with not much to do, introduced himself and took over from the salesman.
He gave the impression things are a bit grim, looking forward, and he used the word “recession” more than once.
The omens aren’t good, whatever the stats say.0 -
Plus a big bloc of Residents' Association MPs and assorted wingnuts.londonpubman said:HYUFD said (previous thread):
House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72
I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.0 -
Are the Tories as disliked as they were then? I don’t think so. People forget how universal the “time for a change” message was in ‘97 and how much we all despised them. The politically motivated might dislike them now, but they aren’t yet instinctively hated by the man on the Clapham omnibus.Selebian said:
Conservatives as disliked (maybe more so, but I think you're right about striking/apathetic voters who will largely come home) as 1997. Labour much less popular than 1997 though. Starmer has work to do for a majority, but he should be PM.MarqueeMark said:Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.
Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.
As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...
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Only 9% in the middle of a cost of living crisis
I have to genuinely ask the question, without any irony:
SKS fans, please explain?1 -
What! South Hams is miles posher than Torbay.Sean_F said:FPT, South Hams is no posher than Torbay, overall. Salcombe and Dartmouth are outliers.
And Totnes and the Dart Valley are like Summerisle in the Wicker Man.0 -
Strangely enough at 12.00 PM last night I posted a prediction from (I think) John Curtice which based on what he'd seen so far gave the Tories -800 and Labour +500.Benpointer said:We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).
Lab +264
Con -470
LD +151
IND -38
Grn +105
RA -4
So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.
perhaps I owe him an apology
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Perhaps the loss of meerkat garden ornaments is symbolic of the decline of the South Hams Tories.Mexicanpete said:
There is no love for the Conservatives in South Hams either.MarqueeMark said:Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.
Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.
As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...1 -
"Stop the Boats" going down well then.Anabobazina said:Labour GAIN Dover
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My poor phrasing,. I meant that at the GE, they need to do as well in England & Wales, as they've done in the locals as measured by the NEV (which takes account of where there were contests).Penddu2 said:
There are no locals in Wales....Richard_Nabavi said:In summary: not all that great for Labour in terms of their prospects for a majority at the GE, except that the geographic distribution of the swing looks quite favourable to them. So I think we're headed for Labour either just short of a majority, or with a small majority.
But 'Scotland, Scotland?', I hear you ask. Well, quite. The historical comparatives are with the periods when Labour dominated Scottish Westminster seats. They need to do at least as well as, or preferably better than, they've done in the locals in England & Wales, AND claw back a good chunk of the seats they've mislaid in Scotland.0 -
There is an article on the previous thread that suggests the 9% equates with the current 15% Labour lead in the polls. You are also ignoring a massive result for both LDs and Greens.DavidL said:
Really? After the total embarrassment that was late Boris and the unmitigated shambles that was Truss, to be only 9% behind? It could and should be a lot worse. I am not suggesting it is a good result. I am suggesting that it is as good as they could expect in very difficult circumstances.Mexicanpete said:GIN1138 said:To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...
I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.0 -
I apologise to him too. I thought 500 for Labour was too low. I now think they won’t get near it.Roger said:
Strangely enough at 12.00 PM last night I posted a prediction from (I think) John Curtice which based on what he's seen so far gave the Tories -800 and Labour +500.Benpointer said:We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).
Lab +264
Con -470
LD +151
IND -38
Grn +105
RA -4
So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.
perhaps I owe him an apology
If we have only reached half seat stage, can’t rule out Tory’s going over 1000 losses.0 -
Con losses now 29.6% of seats defended.
Was a bit over 33% (maybe 35%?) around 5am.
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If you asked me to call it, at the moment, I would suggest Labour are going to eke out a small majority with the help of some Scottish gains. 330 - 340 seats or so.DavidL said:
I think Labour may well be looking for an additional 20 MPs from Scotland. Which might just be enough.londonpubman said:HYUFD said (previous thread):
House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72
I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.
I could quite easily see that being a tad higher, or indeed lower and getting us into HP territory. What I don't see in the tea leaves right now is Labour cruising for a 80+ seat majority or similar.0 -
This was encouraging: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/service-sector-pmi-grows-at-fastest-rate-for-a-year-5dbqcs3jf?shareToken=d6a73c5661f268503119e90fbad4cb8bping said:
Anecdata;DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.
Just yesterday went shopping for double glazing, here in the midlands. I started pushing them a bit on price and the boss, clearly with not much to do, introduced himself and took over from the salesman.
He gave the impression things are a bit grim, looking forward, and he used the word “recession” more than once.
The omens aren’t good, whatever the stats say.0 -
Why are PB Tories ignoring the LDs and Greens? It's like they have an agenda for spin.Nigel_Foremain said:Only 9% in the middle of a cost of living crisis
I have to genuinely ask the question, without any irony:
SKS fans, please explain?3 -
William Hague used to get 40% in the Locals so 35% for Labour is maybe not so great.Mexicanpete said:
There is an article on the previous thread that suggests the 9% equates with the current 15% Labour lead in the polls. You are also ignoring a massive result for both LDs and Greens.DavidL said:
Really? After the total embarrassment that was late Boris and the unmitigated shambles that was Truss, to be only 9% behind? It could and should be a lot worse. I am not suggesting it is a good result. I am suggesting that it is as good as they could expect in very difficult circumstances.Mexicanpete said:GIN1138 said:To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...
I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.0 -
The big April '22 spike is about to drop off the YoY inflation rate.DavidL said:
Not that immediately comes to mind. But, of course, those experts in the BoE and OBR may well know better.Malmesbury said:
Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.
In theory, if you had a burst of inflation from a specific source like gas it could go without wider damage but in practice the ripple effects on wages, goods produced with energy, transport etc spread out and assuming there is not going to be a reaction to that is, well, optimistic.0 -
Not inland. Parts of the hinterland are pretty depressed.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
What! South Hams is miles posher than Torbay.Sean_F said:FPT, South Hams is no posher than Torbay, overall. Salcombe and Dartmouth are outliers.
And Totnes and the Dart Valley are like Summerisle in the Wicker Man.
0 -
17% swing Labour to Tory for Leicester Mayor. I know there's been a big kerfuffle in the Labour group there but if the council swings 17% then it'll be NOC.0
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Brexit traffic queues not very popular.Anabobazina said:Labour GAIN Dover
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There was also the small matter of Tony Blair being probably the best retail politician that this country has ever seen.biggles said:
Are the Tories as disliked as they were then? I don’t think so. People forget how universal the “time for a change” message was in ‘97 and how much we all despised them. The politically motivated might dislike them now, but they aren’t yet instinctively hated by the man on the Clapham omnibus.Selebian said:
Conservatives as disliked (maybe more so, but I think you're right about striking/apathetic voters who will largely come home) as 1997. Labour much less popular than 1997 though. Starmer has work to do for a majority, but he should be PM.MarqueeMark said:Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.
Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.
As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...0 -
Errr, have we done this?
"Boris Johnson records election clip inside moving car without seatbelt on"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/05/boris-johnson-records-election-clip-inside-moving-car-without-seatbelt-on
"Boris Johnson could add to his record of minor criminal misdemeanours after being filmed inside a moving car while apparently not wearing a seatbelt, an offence for which Rishi Sunak was fined in January.
The 42-second clip, recorded for a local Tory group, sees Johnson in the back of a moving car, urging people in Derbyshire to vote in Thursday’s local elections.
Johnson says to the camera: “Hi folks, this is Boris Johnson appealing to all Derbyshire Conservatives to get out tomorrow.” He appears to be not wearing a seatbelt."0 -
18 in Ulster, 3 Plaid, 1 Green and I imagine the grumpy/sleazy group will all vanish at the election. (Though a PPB by them would be fun to watch. How many would they need for that?)londonpubman said:HYUFD said (previous thread):
House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72
I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.
So that's 22 other others, which would mean 50 SNP, which seems on the high side. Shift 20 from SNP to Labour and they're on 332.
Had you offered Labour that in January 2020, they'd have taken that. Right now, I suspect the big three parties would all settle for that, and the country would probably be broadly OK with it.0 -
In response to your message to me in the the previous thread, I actually think it would be in the Conservatives interests to lose the next election and have a spell in opposition because I think if they somehow hold on when the mood of the country is towards change they will face a 97 type obliteration in the 2029 election.Mexicanpete said:GIN1138 said:To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...
I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.
But I have to call it as I see it and whilst yes this has been a bad result for CON a 9% LAB lead and especially the 35% projected vote share and 4-5% Con to Lab swing just looks a bit... low in the circumstances?0 -
Please note that a 9% Labour lead on a grossed-up Local basis maps to a bigger one at a GE.1
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Is Laura K working out of Ipswich these days then?OldKingCole said:
It was suggested as a possibility on BBC East the other day. It will be interesting to see what the (to me anyway) rather pro-Tory political correspondent makes of it.Anabobazina said:Greens GAIN Mid Suffolk was not a result I was expecting (with my untrained eye).
Do they control any other councils (other than Brighton)??1 -
I agree. I suspect they aren’t building any tactical voting at all into their projection, on what is a completely different type of election at the GE. What do the Green vote in Worcester do for example. How can we ask them to know or even make a guess for us, to be fair?Wulfrun_Phil said:
Yes they are both the PNS figures. NEV in 2019 was 31/31/17/21, so higher for Lab and Con there. R&T have the good sense to wait until more than half the results are out before releasing anything.MoonRabbit said:
I think that’s the PNS.Jonathan said:NEV share compared to last time these seats were fought for reference.
2019 c28 l28 ld19 o25
2023 c26 l35 ld20 o19
https://electionsetc.com/2013/05/01/local-elections-vote-shares-the-bbc-pns-and-rallings-thrasher-nev-compared/
To be honest, I'm a tad sceptical about any projection that says the two main parties would only pick up 61% of the vote between them across GB, based on English local election results from the provinces only.
Rather intriguing though if those figures stand. With the Conservatives down only 2 on 2019 you wouldn't expect them to be well on course for 800+ losses. It just shows that both Labour, LD and Green votes are being distributed more efficiently than previously to pick up local government seats.
Also there is still half to count, before we write it up as 9% PNS is the final headline.1 -
It is a valid point and for that he should be congratulated, it is quite an achievement. That said, this is very midterm in a cost of living crisis. If everything else remains equal we can expect that 9 point lead to erode, to what, maybe 5%?Dialup said:As I said days ago, whatever happens Keir Starmer will be called crap and Labour "underwhelming".
9 point lead and they lost in a landslide just over 3 years ago
There are still lots of things for SKS fans to be explaining.
I for one, that somewhat fears a Labour majority, but think that the Tories need a reset, will be OK with Labour minority government with LDs supporting0 -
Lib Dems looking solid for over 200 gains. Places like Tewkesbury and Mid Devon are kicking the Tories pretty hardMoonRabbit said:
I apologise to him too. I thought 500 for Labour was too low. I now think they won’t get near it.Roger said:
Strangely enough at 12.00 PM last night I posted a prediction from (I think) John Curtice which based on what he's seen so far gave the Tories -800 and Labour +500.Benpointer said:We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).
Lab +264
Con -470
LD +151
IND -38
Grn +105
RA -4
So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.
perhaps I owe him an apology
If we have only reached half seat stage, can’t rule out Tory’s going over 1000 losses.1 -
The economic circumstances and policies adopted after the war would certainly count as "painful", I think.Sean_F said:
After WWII. Times were difficult for all sorts of reasons, but wartime inflation did fall away.Malmesbury said:
Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.0 -
The article, which traces the relationship series back to the 1970s, very much states that NEVs vs polling leads are not comparable between Tory opposition spells and Labour ones.NerysHughes said:
William Hague used to get 40% in the Locals so 35% for Labour is maybe not so great.Mexicanpete said:
There is an article on the previous thread that suggests the 9% equates with the current 15% Labour lead in the polls. You are also ignoring a massive result for both LDs and Greens.DavidL said:
Really? After the total embarrassment that was late Boris and the unmitigated shambles that was Truss, to be only 9% behind? It could and should be a lot worse. I am not suggesting it is a good result. I am suggesting that it is as good as they could expect in very difficult circumstances.Mexicanpete said:GIN1138 said:To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...
I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.
Linked again here:
https://beyondthetopline.substack.com/p/forget-the-party-spin-what-does-history1 -
Rather, a FPTP cartel to protect.Mexicanpete said:
Why are PB Tories ignoring the LDs and Greens? It's like they have an agenda for spin.Nigel_Foremain said:Only 9% in the middle of a cost of living crisis
I have to genuinely ask the question, without any irony:
SKS fans, please explain?3 -
Might have been easier had we not sold off our utilities to foreign governments including, er, France...Benpointer said:
That's why we should have done what the French did and largely protect consumers and businesses from the energy price spike.DavidL said:
Not that immediately comes to mind. But, of course, those experts in the BoE and OBR may well know better.Malmesbury said:
Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.
In theory, if you had a burst of inflation from a specific source like gas it could go without wider damage but in practice the ripple effects on wages, goods produced with energy, transport etc spread out and assuming there is not going to be a reaction to that is, well, optimistic.0 -
And the current 26% for the Tories ?NerysHughes said:
William Hague used to get 40% in the Locals so 35% for Labour is maybe not so great.Mexicanpete said:
There is an article on the previous thread that suggests the 9% equates with the current 15% Labour lead in the polls. You are also ignoring a massive result for both LDs and Greens.DavidL said:
Really? After the total embarrassment that was late Boris and the unmitigated shambles that was Truss, to be only 9% behind? It could and should be a lot worse. I am not suggesting it is a good result. I am suggesting that it is as good as they could expect in very difficult circumstances.Mexicanpete said:GIN1138 said:To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...
I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.2 -
Maybe the locals misinterpreted the message and assumed Fishy Rishi was going to block shipping into Dover?SandyRentool said:
"Stop the Boats" going down well then.Anabobazina said:Labour GAIN Dover
0 -
Who was it who said that Boris wasn't safe in taxis?CatMan said:Errr, have we done this?
"Boris Johnson records election clip inside moving car without seatbelt on"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/05/boris-johnson-records-election-clip-inside-moving-car-without-seatbelt-on
"Boris Johnson could add to his record of minor criminal misdemeanours after being filmed inside a moving car while apparently not wearing a seatbelt, an offence for which Rishi Sunak was fined in January.
The 42-second clip, recorded for a local Tory group, sees Johnson in the back of a moving car, urging people in Derbyshire to vote in Thursday’s local elections.
Johnson says to the camera: “Hi folks, this is Boris Johnson appealing to all Derbyshire Conservatives to get out tomorrow.” He appears to be not wearing a seatbelt."0 -
And a really, really good team - like them or loathe them, Alastair Campbell and Peter Mandelson were outstandingly good at addressing Labour's perceived weaknesses and exploiting the Tories' vulnerabilities. In addition, almost the entire Shadow Cabinet were focused, on message and very obviously preparing seriously for government. That is not the case for the current lot, in fact they are mostly invisible. Really only Rachel Reeves and Wes Streeting look like cabinet-ministers-in-waiting.DavidL said:
There was also the small matter of Tony Blair being probably the best retail politician that this country has ever seen.biggles said:
Are the Tories as disliked as they were then? I don’t think so. People forget how universal the “time for a change” message was in ‘97 and how much we all despised them. The politically motivated might dislike them now, but they aren’t yet instinctively hated by the man on the Clapham omnibus.Selebian said:
Conservatives as disliked (maybe more so, but I think you're right about striking/apathetic voters who will largely come home) as 1997. Labour much less popular than 1997 though. Starmer has work to do for a majority, but he should be PM.MarqueeMark said:Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.
Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.
As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...3 -
Generally agree. But there's still plenty of poverty, and need for food banks. Salcombe is an outlier, having overtaken Sandbanks in the "How much????" housing stakes. Mostly Fulham fuckers who vote Labour. When there's a candidate. But when you deliver to a great proportion of the homes here, you see some places that are barely habitable. But homes they are.Andy_JS said:
I'd dispute that. I think South Hams is overall more upmarket than Torbay.Sean_F said:FPT, South Hams is no posher than Torbay, overall. Salcombe and Dartmouth are outliers.
And Totnes and the Dart Valley are like Summerisle in the Wicker Man.
There are some tenement blocks in Paignton in the Torbay seat that are startlingly grim.0 -
The French methodology for price support has been to load all the borrowing for it onto the state owned energy companies.Anabobazina said:
Might have been easier had we not sold off our utilities to foreign governments including, er, France...Benpointer said:
That's why we should have done what the French did and largely protect consumers and businesses from the energy price spike.DavidL said:
Not that immediately comes to mind. But, of course, those experts in the BoE and OBR may well know better.Malmesbury said:
Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.
In theory, if you had a burst of inflation from a specific source like gas it could go without wider damage but in practice the ripple effects on wages, goods produced with energy, transport etc spread out and assuming there is not going to be a reaction to that is, well, optimistic.
This is obviously completely different to state borrowing and nothing like that at all. No, sir.1 -
I’m confident on Starmer winning the next election based on results so far.6
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I am not a PB Tory as well you know. I am a PB floating voter with centrist/centre right sympathies. PB Tory ffs! You should have known betterMexicanpete said:
Why are PB Tories ignoring the LDs and Greens? It's like they have an agenda for spin.Nigel_Foremain said:Only 9% in the middle of a cost of living crisis
I have to genuinely ask the question, without any irony:
SKS fans, please explain?
Labour has done well, but not as well as predicted. That was what I predicted. I predicted the overhyped prediction of the SKS fans, and I am enjoying pissing on their parade just a bit by crowing about my prediction0 -
That's pretty much where I am too. Labour in the 330-350 band with a fair bit of help from Scotland.numbertwelve said:
If you asked me to call it, at the moment, I would suggest Labour are going to eke out a small majority with the help of some Scottish gains. 330 - 340 seats or so.DavidL said:
I think Labour may well be looking for an additional 20 MPs from Scotland. Which might just be enough.londonpubman said:HYUFD said (previous thread):
House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72
I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.
I could quite easily see that being a tad higher, or indeed lower and getting us into HP territory. What I don't see in the tea leaves right now is Labour cruising for a 80+ seat majority or similar.0 -
Hardly news, is it, as it's well known that Boris Johnson sincerely believes laws are for OTHER, lesser folk - NOT him.CatMan said:Errr, have we done this?
"Boris Johnson records election clip inside moving car without seatbelt on"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/05/boris-johnson-records-election-clip-inside-moving-car-without-seatbelt-on
"Boris Johnson could add to his record of minor criminal misdemeanours after being filmed inside a moving car while apparently not wearing a seatbelt, an offence for which Rishi Sunak was fined in January.
The 42-second clip, recorded for a local Tory group, sees Johnson in the back of a moving car, urging people in Derbyshire to vote in Thursday’s local elections.
Johnson says to the camera: “Hi folks, this is Boris Johnson appealing to all Derbyshire Conservatives to get out tomorrow.” He appears to be not wearing a seatbelt."
And hardly surprising, really, in wake of Rishi Sunak seat-belt infraction, nobody in BoJo's bozo squad is smart enough to NOT repeat that gaffe.0 -
Indeed it was severe continuing austerity that brought down the Attlee government.Malmesbury said:
The economic circumstances and policies adopted after the war would certainly count as "painful", I think.Sean_F said:
After WWII. Times were difficult for all sorts of reasons, but wartime inflation did fall away.Malmesbury said:
Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.1 -
I have this bridge you might be interested inTheScreamingEagles said:I’m confident on Starmer winning the next election based on results so far.
0 -
Nah, that's the French dock workers' job.Anabobazina said:
Maybe the locals misinterpreted the message and assumed Fishy Rishi was going to block shipping into Dover?SandyRentool said:
"Stop the Boats" going down well then.Anabobazina said:Labour GAIN Dover
0 -
You may have to wait for the answer. What this huge vehemently Tory hating LLG does in the General Election next year.Nigel_Foremain said:Only 9% in the middle of a cost of living crisis
I have to genuinely ask the question, without any irony:
SKS fans, please explain?0 -
South Hams had a long running and toxic contract dispute regarding the recycling collections. The Tories got the blame.
You'd never know the LibDems signed that contract from their election literature...0 -
Not a fan (though fairly settled in "oh well, he'll have to do, could be a lot worse"), but the cost of living crisis only really affects one of the two nations. The other one is doing fairly nicely, thank you.Nigel_Foremain said:Only 9% in the middle of a cost of living crisis
I have to genuinely ask the question, without any irony:
SKS fans, please explain?0 -
One of Boris's ?Alanbrooke said:
I have this bridge you might be interested inTheScreamingEagles said:I’m confident on Starmer winning the next election based on results so far.
1 -
Ah, I could well be wrong, was quite young in 97 to have a sense for general public mood.biggles said:
Are the Tories as disliked as they were then? I don’t think so. People forget how universal the “time for a change” message was in ‘97 and how much we all despised them. The politically motivated might dislike them now, but they aren’t yet instinctively hated by the man on the Clapham omnibus.Selebian said:
Conservatives as disliked (maybe more so, but I think you're right about striking/apathetic voters who will largely come home) as 1997. Labour much less popular than 1997 though. Starmer has work to do for a majority, but he should be PM.MarqueeMark said:Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.
Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.
As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...
I was going on the PNS (and current opinion polls) mostly, but I was quite unclear with 'disliked'. 'Less popular' (or indeed spelling out that I was talking about polling and PNS) would have been clearer..0 -
Yes, with added unicors.Nigelb said:
One of Boris's ?Alanbrooke said:
I have this bridge you might be interested inTheScreamingEagles said:I’m confident on Starmer winning the next election based on results so far.
0 -
Not great at all, but much better than I thought they would get, 6 weeks ago I thought they would be in the teensNigelb said:
And the current 26% for the Tories ?NerysHughes said:
William Hague used to get 40% in the Locals so 35% for Labour is maybe not so great.Mexicanpete said:
There is an article on the previous thread that suggests the 9% equates with the current 15% Labour lead in the polls. You are also ignoring a massive result for both LDs and Greens.DavidL said:
Really? After the total embarrassment that was late Boris and the unmitigated shambles that was Truss, to be only 9% behind? It could and should be a lot worse. I am not suggesting it is a good result. I am suggesting that it is as good as they could expect in very difficult circumstances.Mexicanpete said:GIN1138 said:To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...
I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.0 -
Lib Dems break over 200 gains.0
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The lack of genuine talent on both frontbenches is marked and unprecedented in my lifetime.Richard_Nabavi said:
And a really, really good team - like them or loathe them, Alastair Campbell and Peter Mandelson were outstandingly good at addressing Labour's perceived weaknesses and exploiting the Tories' vulnerabilities. In addition, almost the entire Shadow Cabinet were focused, on message and very obviously preparing seriously for government. That is not the case for the current lot, in fact they are mostly invisible. Really only Rachel Reeves and Wes Streeting look like cabinet-ministers-in-waiting.DavidL said:
There was also the small matter of Tony Blair being probably the best retail politician that this country has ever seen.biggles said:
Are the Tories as disliked as they were then? I don’t think so. People forget how universal the “time for a change” message was in ‘97 and how much we all despised them. The politically motivated might dislike them now, but they aren’t yet instinctively hated by the man on the Clapham omnibus.Selebian said:
Conservatives as disliked (maybe more so, but I think you're right about striking/apathetic voters who will largely come home) as 1997. Labour much less popular than 1997 though. Starmer has work to do for a majority, but he should be PM.MarqueeMark said:Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.
Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.
As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...2 -
And Reeves, understandably perhaps, all too often comes across as more than a bit daunted by the challenge in front of her. Brown, with his prawn cocktail offensive in the City, never had that problem.Richard_Nabavi said:
And a really, really good team - like them or loathe them, Alastair Campbell and Peter Mandelson were outstandingly good at addressing Labour's perceived weaknesses and exploiting the Tories' vulnerabilities. In addition, almost the entire Shadow Cabinet were focused, on message and very obviously preparing seriously for government. That is not the case for the current lot, in fact they are mostly invisible. Really only Rachel Reeves and Wes Streeting look like cabinet-ministers-in-waiting.DavidL said:
There was also the small matter of Tony Blair being probably the best retail politician that this country has ever seen.biggles said:
Are the Tories as disliked as they were then? I don’t think so. People forget how universal the “time for a change” message was in ‘97 and how much we all despised them. The politically motivated might dislike them now, but they aren’t yet instinctively hated by the man on the Clapham omnibus.Selebian said:
Conservatives as disliked (maybe more so, but I think you're right about striking/apathetic voters who will largely come home) as 1997. Labour much less popular than 1997 though. Starmer has work to do for a majority, but he should be PM.MarqueeMark said:Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.
Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.
As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...0 -
Tactical voting will see them off. Yesterday was about the anti Tory vote. The vox pops on the news stations have been brutal. In a general election it will be much clearer where to direct our XMexicanpete said:GIN1138 said:To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...
I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.DavidL said:I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.
As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.1 -
It would take something seismic now for Starmer not to be the next PM. What I think is notable is that the Labour + LibDem + Green number in both the NEV and PNS is actually outperforming the national polling.TheScreamingEagles said:I’m confident on Starmer winning the next election based on results so far.
4 -
Labour will be the largest party. 95%+TheScreamingEagles said:I’m confident on Starmer winning the next election based on results so far.
They will form the administration - I don't see much possibility that the other opposition parties would try and bring it down. Even if they tried to govern as a minority government (supply and confidence?) rather than formal coalition.
As to a majority.... That is currently in play, I think. Could go either way.3
