Yep. There is no way on earth that the SNP is going to join the Tories in voting down a minority Labour government - especially if it loses vote share and seats to Labour at the GE. And it's hard to see the LDs doing it either. There will be lots of abstaining, so if Labour win most seats overall it may seem like it is a de facto majority government.
I think the longer term trajectory of British politics will hinge on who the Tories choose to succeed Sunak if they do lose power. I am struggling to see who could credibly represent the sensible wing at this stage and hope to win.
Yes, your second paragraph is spot-on. The big question is whether, having belatedly showed signs of a modicum of sanity in choosing Sunak and tolerating Jeremy Hunt, they continue with that journey back to the real world, or instead double down on dancing with the fairies. Hard to say at the moment.
I suspect real world depends on something quite unusual in modern politics but not unknown in the past - aka Sunak managing to stay on after an election defeat.
Yes at the moment looks like Labour biggest party but no majority, however clearly poor results for us in most places and looks like we are headed to opposition.
As KJH alluded to in the last thread I narrowly lost a seat to the LDs after a recount, their candidate was Parish chairman, having knocked it on the head at 7pm went over to help in Epping Lindsey which we ended up losing to the LDs by 300 votes. Such is life, will just focus on building up my profile locally over the next year. I did not stand again for Epping Town Council having moved though the LDs did mention my previous history in their usual Focus way. In EFDC we also lost one seat to the Independents in Grange Hill but picked up a seat from the Far Right in Waltham Abbey Paternoster with an excellent local candidate.
Congratulations to all candidates for their hard work and well done those who did get elected
Bad luck @Hyufd - was rooting for you. I’m sure you’ll be back soon and I know you do a great job for your community.
Yep. There is no way on earth that the SNP is going to join the Tories in voting down a minority Labour government - especially if it loses vote share and seats to Labour at the GE. And it's hard to see the LDs doing it either. There will be lots of abstaining, so if Labour win most seats overall it may seem like it is a de facto majority government.
I think the longer term trajectory of British politics will hinge on who the Tories choose to succeed Sunak if they do lose power. I am struggling to see who could credibly represent the sensible wing at this stage and hope to win.
Yes, your second paragraph is spot-on. The big question is whether, having belatedly showed signs of a modicum of sanity in choosing Sunak and tolerating Jeremy Hunt, they continue with that journey back to the real world, or instead double down on dancing with the fairies. Hard to say at the moment.
Who could credibly stand for the leadership from that part of the party? I don't see anyone obvious, but it's not a focus of mine - for obvious reasons?
The initial shortlist in summer 2022 was:
Rishi Sunak Penny Mordaunt Tom Tugendhat Liz Truss Suella Braverman Jeremy Hunt Kemi Badenoch Nadhim Zahawi
I think we can cross Zahawi off the list, and I'm not sure the party will be prepared to go for Hunt. Tugendhat is probably the best bet for One Nation types.
Of course, one name is missing from that list, the hero our nation needs. No, not you Boris. Step forward, for your time has come, Rehman Chishti.
The obvious problem with this simplistic national vote share is that you have the LibDems on 20%. Which might happen in a GE but isn't borne out by any opinion polling, nor by the LibDems themselves.
Why? Because many people like me voted for the LibDems at local level. Tactically.
That will only happen at constituency level when we know there's a real chance of defeating a tory.
So be wary about this, or at least look at that anti-tory Lab-LibDem vote share which is 55%.
Except that there are people who vote Lib Dem locally, but Conservative at Parliamentary level (in Watford and Bushey, for example). The Labour/Lib Dem vote is not a single bloc.
With exactly 20% of councils left to declare on the BBC website, changes were Lab +427, Con -782, LD +270, Green +179.
So add a quarter to each figure and you have a rough and ready projected total of Lab +533, Con -977, LD +324, Green +224.
Those changes in seats are significantly greater than the figures that the same methodology would have produced in early afternoon. So I wonder, by calculating the PNS so early based on partial results which seem since to have got worse for the Conservatives and better for the other 3 parties, has Curtice missed a trick?
Is that what they did, though? Surely it wouldn't have been hard at least to correct for the number of seats up for election in each council, and not much harder to correct for how many seats up for election were held by each party?
Yep. There is no way on earth that the SNP is going to join the Tories in voting down a minority Labour government - especially if it loses vote share and seats to Labour at the GE. And it's hard to see the LDs doing it either. There will be lots of abstaining, so if Labour win most seats overall it may seem like it is a de facto majority government.
I think the longer term trajectory of British politics will hinge on who the Tories choose to succeed Sunak if they do lose power. I am struggling to see who could credibly represent the sensible wing at this stage and hope to win.
Yes, your second paragraph is spot-on. The big question is whether, having belatedly showed signs of a modicum of sanity in choosing Sunak and tolerating Jeremy Hunt, they continue with that journey back to the real world, or instead double down on dancing with the fairies. Hard to say at the moment.
I suspect real world depends on something quite unusual in modern politics but not unknown in the past - aka Sunak managing to stay on after an election defeat.
Sunak would actually be by far their best option, IMO. But would he want to stay on and would his party let him? I guess it depends on the extent of any defeat. If the Tories lose 100+ seats it's hard to see how he could continue.
With exactly 20% of councils left to declare on the BBC website, changes were Lab +427, Con -782, LD +270, Green +179.
So add a quarter to each figure and you have a rough and ready projected total of Lab +533, Con -977, LD +324, Green +224.
Those changes in seats are significantly greater than the figures that the same methodology would have produced in early afternoon. So I wonder, by calculating the PNS so early based on partial results which seem since to have got worse for the Conservatives and better for the other 3 parties, has Curtice missed a trick?
He’s certainly missed a decent night’s sleep, looking at him. Tomorrow is another day.
Could we see a possible 1997 scenario for the Tories against the Lib Dems but more like 2005 versus Labour?
I don't see where 46 Lib Dem seats would be coming from. The Lib Dems went into the 1997 election with 800 more councillors, and three times as many councils, as the Conservatives.
There aren't going to be 46 LibDem MPs after the election. But I would be very surprised, now, if there were fewer than 20. Something in the 23 to 28 range looks quite possible for them.
I'm not going as far as 46 for the Lib Dems, but they have a chance of rebuilding the Yellow Wall through Cornwall, Devon and Somerset that they used to have prior to 2015. It's not outside probability to have 12 seats just in those 3 counties.
The LD performance is going to depend on whether the next GE is basically a standard election - Lab or Tory might come first, no-one else counts, or whether a movement will develop, akin to a nationwide by election when 'Get The Tories Out' becomes the only theme, and a mass tactical vote takes place. I would not rule it out.
With exactly 20% of councils left to declare on the BBC website, changes were Lab +427, Con -782, LD +270, Green +179.
So add a quarter to each figure and you have a rough and ready projected total of Lab +533, Con -977, LD +324, Green +224.
Those changes in seats are significantly greater than the figures that the same methodology would have produced in early afternoon. So I wonder, by calculating the PNS so early based on partial results which seem since to have got worse for the Conservatives and better for the other 3 parties, has Curtice missed a trick?
No, I don't think his percentages were wrong, Phil, but it was noticeable that that the late-declaring seats included a relatively high proportion of Tory defences.
Yep. There is no way on earth that the SNP is going to join the Tories in voting down a minority Labour government - especially if it loses vote share and seats to Labour at the GE. And it's hard to see the LDs doing it either. There will be lots of abstaining, so if Labour win most seats overall it may seem like it is a de facto majority government.
I think the longer term trajectory of British politics will hinge on who the Tories choose to succeed Sunak if they do lose power. I am struggling to see who could credibly represent the sensible wing at this stage and hope to win.
Yes, your second paragraph is spot-on. The big question is whether, having belatedly showed signs of a modicum of sanity in choosing Sunak and tolerating Jeremy Hunt, they continue with that journey back to the real world, or instead double down on dancing with the fairies. Hard to say at the moment.
Who could credibly stand for the leadership from that part of the party? I don't see anyone obvious, but it's not a focus of mine - for obvious reasons?
I don't know, but in opposition you can sometimes get a relatively unknown figure emerging - such as Cameron in 2005.
I think more likely is someone like Kemi Badenoch, who I think is fairly sensible, and perhaps could take the party with her back towards the centre, camouflaged with a bit of tactical anti-wokeness to keep them happy. Of course she's still fairly inexperienced, so we'll have to see how she develops.
She speaks articulately, but does seem an empty suit, without a track record of delivery of anything.
With exactly 20% of councils left to declare on the BBC website, changes were Lab +427, Con -782, LD +270, Green +179.
So add a quarter to each figure and you have a rough and ready projected total of Lab +533, Con -977, LD +324, Green +224.
Those changes in seats are significantly greater than the figures that the same methodology would have produced in early afternoon. So I wonder, by calculating the PNS so early based on partial results which seem since to have got worse for the Conservatives and better for the other 3 parties, has Curtice missed a trick?
I don't think so, the PNS is based on key wards and the vote shares rather than the raw number of councillors won and lost. The later councils are more likely to be all-out rather than electing by thirds so losing 3 seats in an all-out election should be the same as losing 1 in a thirds election. I think that's the main reason for the seeming acceleration in the Tory loss totals.
First impressions of the local elections result - it's not 1995 by any stretch. That year there were no crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives but this time there are more than a few examples of better or at least not too bad results and a couple of authorities gained or perhaps re-gained having been lost to by-elections or to defections or splits within groups.
As for Labour, some spectacular results but others less inspiring and more limited headway in some of the new Conservative heartlands of the north and midlands as well as eastern England which is the other area of core Conservative strength.
The Liberal Democrats can be very pleased with the result - defending the 700 gains from 2019 wasn't going to be easy but coming out ahead and taking control of some new councils is a big step ahead - the one disappointment so far might be the failure to take East Cambridgeshire.
The Greens are also doing very well and cutting into areas which haven't of late been so good for the Liberal Democrats so the Conservatives and Labour face being caught between the Lib Dem rock and the Green hard place.
Independents have had a mixed time of it but clearly there are areas where the anti-Conservative or protest vote has moved to them rather than to Labour, LD or Green.
With exactly 20% of councils left to declare on the BBC website, changes were Lab +427, Con -782, LD +270, Green +179.
So add a quarter to each figure and you have a rough and ready projected total of Lab +533, Con -977, LD +324, Green +224.
Those changes in seats are significantly greater than the figures that the same methodology would have produced in early afternoon. So I wonder, by calculating the PNS so early based on partial results which seem since to have got worse for the Conservatives and better for the other 3 parties, has Curtice missed a trick?
Is that what they did, though? Surely it wouldn't have been hard at least to correct for the number of seats up for election in each council, and not much harder to correct for how many seats up for election were held by each party?
With respect Chris, I think I was a bit cryptic and you've missed the point. What I meant was that if the first 50% of results were pretty bad for the Conservatives, but the next 30% of results were even worse, then if PNS was calculated before those latter results were known, the PNS will be skewed and understating the scale of the Conservatives' problems.
Could we see a possible 1997 scenario for the Tories against the Lib Dems but more like 2005 versus Labour?
I don't see where 46 Lib Dem seats would be coming from. The Lib Dems went into the 1997 election with 800 more councillors, and three times as many councils, as the Conservatives.
There aren't going to be 46 LibDem MPs after the election. But I would be very surprised, now, if there were fewer than 20. Something in the 23 to 28 range looks quite possible for them.
I'm not going as far as 46 for the Lib Dems, but they have a chance of rebuilding the Yellow Wall through Cornwall, Devon and Somerset that they used to have prior to 2015. It's not outside probability to have 12 seats just in those 3 counties.
I'd be surprised by that, but the Lib Dem results in Devon this year and Somerset last year were strikingly good. Cornwall was dismal, though, in 2021.
The Tiverton by-election may well have been the shot in the arm they needed there, and it does open up another front in addition to the stockbroker belt, where I have a suspicion that Sunak will ultimately steady the ship even though the results today are pretty poor for the blues.
Could we see a possible 1997 scenario for the Tories against the Lib Dems but more like 2005 versus Labour?
I don't see where 46 Lib Dem seats would be coming from. The Lib Dems went into the 1997 election with 800 more councillors, and three times as many councils, as the Conservatives.
There aren't going to be 46 LibDem MPs after the election. But I would be very surprised, now, if there were fewer than 20. Something in the 23 to 28 range looks quite possible for them.
I'm not going as far as 46 for the Lib Dems, but they have a chance of rebuilding the Yellow Wall through Cornwall, Devon and Somerset that they used to have prior to 2015. It's not outside probability to have 12 seats just in those 3 counties.
St Ives I can see going Yellow.
Wells is a possible.
But beyond there, I think the LDs will really struggle in the South West. They are a long way behind in their old heartlands. They are 15,000 votes behind in Cornwall North, for example.
Yep. There is no way on earth that the SNP is going to join the Tories in voting down a minority Labour government - especially if it loses vote share and seats to Labour at the GE. And it's hard to see the LDs doing it either. There will be lots of abstaining, so if Labour win most seats overall it may seem like it is a de facto majority government.
I think the longer term trajectory of British politics will hinge on who the Tories choose to succeed Sunak if they do lose power. I am struggling to see who could credibly represent the sensible wing at this stage and hope to win.
Yes, your second paragraph is spot-on. The big question is whether, having belatedly showed signs of a modicum of sanity in choosing Sunak and tolerating Jeremy Hunt, they continue with that journey back to the real world, or instead double down on dancing with the fairies. Hard to say at the moment.
Who could credibly stand for the leadership from that part of the party? I don't see anyone obvious, but it's not a focus of mine - for obvious reasons?
I don't know, but in opposition you can sometimes get a relatively unknown figure emerging - such as Cameron in 2005.
I think more likely is someone like Kemi Badenoch, who I think is fairly sensible, and perhaps could take the party with her back towards the centre, camouflaged with a bit of tactical anti-wokeness to keep them happy. Of course she's still fairly inexperienced, so we'll have to see how she develops.
She speaks articulately, but does seem an empty suit, without a track record of delivery of anything.
So you are saying she has the necessary characteristics of a modern Tory leader?
Yep. There is no way on earth that the SNP is going to join the Tories in voting down a minority Labour government - especially if it loses vote share and seats to Labour at the GE. And it's hard to see the LDs doing it either. There will be lots of abstaining, so if Labour win most seats overall it may seem like it is a de facto majority government.
I think the longer term trajectory of British politics will hinge on who the Tories choose to succeed Sunak if they do lose power. I am struggling to see who could credibly represent the sensible wing at this stage and hope to win.
Yes, your second paragraph is spot-on. The big question is whether, having belatedly showed signs of a modicum of sanity in choosing Sunak and tolerating Jeremy Hunt, they continue with that journey back to the real world, or instead double down on dancing with the fairies. Hard to say at the moment.
Who could credibly stand for the leadership from that part of the party? I don't see anyone obvious, but it's not a focus of mine - for obvious reasons?
I don't know, but in opposition you can sometimes get a relatively unknown figure emerging - such as Cameron in 2005.
I think more likely is someone like Kemi Badenoch, who I think is fairly sensible, and perhaps could take the party with her back towards the centre, camouflaged with a bit of tactical anti-wokeness to keep them happy. Of course she's still fairly inexperienced, so we'll have to see how she develops.
She speaks articulately, but does seem an empty suit, without a track record of delivery of anything.
So better than Starmer on the first point, and equal on the second.
We've had 3 Mayoral results. In Mansfield, the Labour candidate won with 45% of the vote over the Conservatives on 26%, so it seems likely we would have had the same result under SV.
In Leicester, the Labour candidate won with only 39% of the vote, over the Conservative on 30%. That looks a bit more as if SV could have produced a different result, but the bottom 2 candidates were the TUSC and Green, with a total of 11%, so it seems highly likely that their second preferences under SV would have ensured a Labour win.
So that only leaves Middlesbrough where it seems quite likely SV would have made a difference. Labour won with 40% over an independent on 37%. Another independent and a Conservative both got 11%, with no other candidates. Surely second preferences would have been enough to overcome the Labour lead.
Assuming the voters for the other independent and the Tory both preferred the runner-up to the Labour candidate and (bigger hurdle) could predict who would come first and second.
AV is flawed - SV is AV without the good bits. Good riddance.
I think the TUSC and Green vote quite anti Soulsby in Leicester, and I think many would have either abstained second vote, or even gone Tory (as the Tory is pledged to abolish the mayor, so a defacto plebiscite on continuing a city mayor in Leicester).
The Tory mayoral candidate pledged to abolish himself if he won? Odd.
With exactly 20% of councils left to declare on the BBC website, changes were Lab +427, Con -782, LD +270, Green +179.
So add a quarter to each figure and you have a rough and ready projected total of Lab +533, Con -977, LD +324, Green +224.
Those changes in seats are significantly greater than the figures that the same methodology would have produced in early afternoon. So I wonder, by calculating the PNS so early based on partial results which seem since to have got worse for the Conservatives and better for the other 3 parties, has Curtice missed a trick?
I don't think so, the PNS is based on key wards and the vote shares rather than the raw number of councillors won and lost. The later councils are more likely to be all-out rather than electing by thirds so losing 3 seats in an all-out election should be the same as losing 1 in a thirds election. I think that's the main reason for the seeming acceleration in the Tory loss totals.
Fair point, that's plausible if your premise about the later councils being more likely to be all out is correct.
Could we see a possible 1997 scenario for the Tories against the Lib Dems but more like 2005 versus Labour?
I don't see where 46 Lib Dem seats would be coming from. The Lib Dems went into the 1997 election with 800 more councillors, and three times as many councils, as the Conservatives.
There aren't going to be 46 LibDem MPs after the election. But I would be very surprised, now, if there were fewer than 20. Something in the 23 to 28 range looks quite possible for them.
I'm not going as far as 46 for the Lib Dems, but they have a chance of rebuilding the Yellow Wall through Cornwall, Devon and Somerset that they used to have prior to 2015. It's not outside probability to have 12 seats just in those 3 counties.
I'd be surprised by that, but the Lib Dem results in Devon this year and Somerset last year were strikingly good. Cornwall was dismal, though, in 2021.
The Tiverton by-election may well have been the shot in the arm they needed there, and it does open up another front in addition to the stockbroker belt, where I have a suspicion that Sunak will ultimately steady the ship even though the results today are pretty poor for the blues.
There seems little evidence today of Sunak appealing to the Stockbroker belt, nor to the Red Wall for that matter.
With exactly 20% of councils left to declare on the BBC website, changes were Lab +427, Con -782, LD +270, Green +179.
So add a quarter to each figure and you have a rough and ready projected total of Lab +533, Con -977, LD +324, Green +224.
Those changes in seats are significantly greater than the figures that the same methodology would have produced in early afternoon. So I wonder, by calculating the PNS so early based on partial results which seem since to have got worse for the Conservatives and better for the other 3 parties, has Curtice missed a trick?
Is that what they did, though? Surely it wouldn't have been hard at least to correct for the number of seats up for election in each council, and not much harder to correct for how many seats up for election were held by each party?
With respect Chris, I think I was a bit cryptic and you've missed the point. What I meant was that if the first 50% of results were pretty bad for the Conservatives, but the next 30% of results were even worse, then if PNS was calculated before those latter results were known, the PNS will be skewed and understating the scale of the Conservatives' problems.
Well, that's certainly true, whatever basis they are calculated on. Your post made it sound as though they were being calculated on a very simplistic basis. Which indeed they may have been, for all I know.
Yep. There is no way on earth that the SNP is going to join the Tories in voting down a minority Labour government - especially if it loses vote share and seats to Labour at the GE. And it's hard to see the LDs doing it either. There will be lots of abstaining, so if Labour win most seats overall it may seem like it is a de facto majority government.
I think the longer term trajectory of British politics will hinge on who the Tories choose to succeed Sunak if they do lose power. I am struggling to see who could credibly represent the sensible wing at this stage and hope to win.
Yes, your second paragraph is spot-on. The big question is whether, having belatedly showed signs of a modicum of sanity in choosing Sunak and tolerating Jeremy Hunt, they continue with that journey back to the real world, or instead double down on dancing with the fairies. Hard to say at the moment.
Who could credibly stand for the leadership from that part of the party? I don't see anyone obvious, but it's not a focus of mine - for obvious reasons?
I don't know, but in opposition you can sometimes get a relatively unknown figure emerging - such as Cameron in 2005.
I think more likely is someone like Kemi Badenoch, who I think is fairly sensible, and perhaps could take the party with her back towards the centre, camouflaged with a bit of tactical anti-wokeness to keep them happy. Of course she's still fairly inexperienced, so we'll have to see how she develops.
She speaks articulately, but does seem an empty suit, without a track record of delivery of anything.
Being a member of the current government and not having much of a track record is probably a bit of a boon, given that most cabinet ministers' records are pretty rubbish.
She is in the ideal role in trade/business - it's one of those roles that doesn't really attract an awful lot of day to day scrutiny. The trade brief gives you the opportunity to do a few handshakes in front of flags. See how Truss, Liz, used it as a launchpad...
She could quite easily come unstuck but the route for her is much clearer than any of the other potential candidates. She doesn't have the baggage of someone like Braverman (who sadly I feel will be the other leading contender).
Still quite a lot of results to come in from Surrey, where the LibDems seem to be turning pretty much everything from blue to yellow.
As I have previously stated, it's this double pincer movement of deliberately anti-tory voting which I'm sure is going to see the Conservatives get an absolute shellacking at the next general election.
I voted for 3 LibDems and 1 Labour candidate in my council (Teignbridge) and it contributed to seeing it go from NOC to a LibDem gain, which I am absolutely delighted about.
Could we see a possible 1997 scenario for the Tories against the Lib Dems but more like 2005 versus Labour?
I don't see where 46 Lib Dem seats would be coming from. The Lib Dems went into the 1997 election with 800 more councillors, and three times as many councils, as the Conservatives.
There aren't going to be 46 LibDem MPs after the election. But I would be very surprised, now, if there were fewer than 20. Something in the 23 to 28 range looks quite possible for them.
I'm not going as far as 46 for the Lib Dems, but they have a chance of rebuilding the Yellow Wall through Cornwall, Devon and Somerset that they used to have prior to 2015. It's not outside probability to have 12 seats just in those 3 counties.
I'd be surprised by that, but the Lib Dem results in Devon this year and Somerset last year were strikingly good. Cornwall was dismal, though, in 2021.
The Tiverton by-election may well have been the shot in the arm they needed there, and it does open up another front in addition to the stockbroker belt, where I have a suspicion that Sunak will ultimately steady the ship even though the results today are pretty poor for the blues.
There seems little evidence today of Sunak appealing to the Stockbroker belt, nor to the Red Wall for that matter.
Could an EU rejoin referendum be the price the Liberals ask for a coalition or confidence deal?
No, but an EFTA/EEA referendum could be on the cards.
The Lib Dems have form for agreeing to a referendum on the wrong question and undermining the position they actually support.
A cheap shot but not entirely without merit.
If I were Davey, I wouldn't even be thinking or talking about Labour at the moment - the aim has to be to maximise the LD vote and seat count. Re-building the local base is a big part of re-building the Westminster base and if the party can get to 20-25 seats next time that will be progress.
As others have said, events in Scotland might make Starmer's task of building a majority easier than it appeared 6 months ago. Currently polls are showing a 14% swing from Conservative to Labour in England but as 2017 and 2019 showed, local elections aren't a valuable guide for forecasting General Elections so for now, Davey can bask in a job well done and continue to build the Party's profile and a little bit of positive publicity from these results will do no harm.
Could an EU rejoin referendum be the price the Liberals ask for a coalition or confidence deal?
You can't have a rejoin referendum until the EU wants us to rejoin and a deal has been negotiated. It's a second term project - at the earliest.
If we go back into the EU it isn't going to happen for a very long time. Liberal Democrat politicians aren't dense, they will understand this. They could go into this election or the one after lobbying for the EEA though, I suppose?
In any event, they wouldn't have enough bargaining power in a Hung Parliament to extract really big concessions, because they won't push the nuclear button and back the Tories instead, and Starmer knows this. So, no big moves towards the EU that Labour can't accept, and no electoral reform either. Best they can do is threaten to withhold support in selected votes where they think they can get away with voting with the Tory Opposition, and use this to buy concessions in policy areas that aren't deemed of vital importance to the Government.
Could we see a possible 1997 scenario for the Tories against the Lib Dems but more like 2005 versus Labour?
I don't see where 46 Lib Dem seats would be coming from. The Lib Dems went into the 1997 election with 800 more councillors, and three times as many councils, as the Conservatives.
There aren't going to be 46 LibDem MPs after the election. But I would be very surprised, now, if there were fewer than 20. Something in the 23 to 28 range looks quite possible for them.
I'm not going as far as 46 for the Lib Dems, but they have a chance of rebuilding the Yellow Wall through Cornwall, Devon and Somerset that they used to have prior to 2015. It's not outside probability to have 12 seats just in those 3 counties.
The LD performance is going to depend on whether the next GE is basically a standard election - Lab or Tory might come first, no-one else counts, or whether a movement will develop, akin to a nationwide by election when 'Get The Tories Out' becomes the only theme, and a mass tactical vote takes place. I would not rule it out.
And following today's results, there's a whole bunch of "Blue Wall" seats where the LibDems become the natural challengers. It's very possible that the ceiling on LibDem seats at the next GE will be party finances and organisational capacity.
Could we see a possible 1997 scenario for the Tories against the Lib Dems but more like 2005 versus Labour?
I don't see where 46 Lib Dem seats would be coming from. The Lib Dems went into the 1997 election with 800 more councillors, and three times as many councils, as the Conservatives.
There aren't going to be 46 LibDem MPs after the election. But I would be very surprised, now, if there were fewer than 20. Something in the 23 to 28 range looks quite possible for them.
I'm not going as far as 46 for the Lib Dems, but they have a chance of rebuilding the Yellow Wall through Cornwall, Devon and Somerset that they used to have prior to 2015. It's not outside probability to have 12 seats just in those 3 counties.
St Ives I can see going Yellow.
Wells is a possible.
But beyond there, I think the LDs will really struggle in the South West. They are a long way behind in their old heartlands. They are 15,000 votes behind in Cornwall North, for example.
Yes, but these things reach tipping point, as indeed they did in 1997, with LDs turning over big majorities, and if one goes, the others often fall too.
Yes at the moment looks like Labour biggest party but no majority, however clearly poor results for us in most places and looks like we are headed to opposition.
As KJH alluded to in the last thread I narrowly lost a seat to the LDs after a recount, their candidate was Parish chairman, having knocked it on the head at 7pm went over to help in Epping Lindsey which we ended up losing to the LDs by 300 votes. Such is life, will just focus on building up my profile locally over the next year. I did not stand again for Epping Town Council having moved though the LDs did mention my previous history in their usual Focus way. In EFDC we also lost one seat to the Independents in Grange Hill but picked up a seat from the Far Right in Waltham Abbey Paternoster with an excellent local candidate.
Congratulations to all candidates for their hard work and well done those who did get elected
Bad luck @Hyufd - was rooting for you. I’m sure you’ll be back soon and I know you do a great job for your community.
Seconded. Combatants like 'H' beat couch pundits like me any day. And doubly so when they're fighting the Far Right in Waltham Abbey.
Could we see a possible 1997 scenario for the Tories against the Lib Dems but more like 2005 versus Labour?
I don't see where 46 Lib Dem seats would be coming from. The Lib Dems went into the 1997 election with 800 more councillors, and three times as many councils, as the Conservatives.
There aren't going to be 46 LibDem MPs after the election. But I would be very surprised, now, if there were fewer than 20. Something in the 23 to 28 range looks quite possible for them.
I'm not going as far as 46 for the Lib Dems, but they have a chance of rebuilding the Yellow Wall through Cornwall, Devon and Somerset that they used to have prior to 2015. It's not outside probability to have 12 seats just in those 3 counties.
I'd be surprised by that, but the Lib Dem results in Devon this year and Somerset last year were strikingly good. Cornwall was dismal, though, in 2021.
The Tiverton by-election may well have been the shot in the arm they needed there, and it does open up another front in addition to the stockbroker belt, where I have a suspicion that Sunak will ultimately steady the ship even though the results today are pretty poor for the blues.
There seems little evidence today of Sunak appealing to the Stockbroker belt, nor to the Red Wall for that matter.
Sunak = toast.
Yep I think this is the real problem. He falls between two stools.
Yep. There is no way on earth that the SNP is going to join the Tories in voting down a minority Labour government - especially if it loses vote share and seats to Labour at the GE. And it's hard to see the LDs doing it either. There will be lots of abstaining, so if Labour win most seats overall it may seem like it is a de facto majority government.
I think the longer term trajectory of British politics will hinge on who the Tories choose to succeed Sunak if they do lose power. I am struggling to see who could credibly represent the sensible wing at this stage and hope to win.
Yes, your second paragraph is spot-on. The big question is whether, having belatedly showed signs of a modicum of sanity in choosing Sunak and tolerating Jeremy Hunt, they continue with that journey back to the real world, or instead double down on dancing with the fairies. Hard to say at the moment.
Who could credibly stand for the leadership from that part of the party? I don't see anyone obvious, but it's not a focus of mine - for obvious reasons?
I don't know, but in opposition you can sometimes get a relatively unknown figure emerging - such as Cameron in 2005.
I think more likely is someone like Kemi Badenoch, who I think is fairly sensible, and perhaps could take the party with her back towards the centre, camouflaged with a bit of tactical anti-wokeness to keep them happy. Of course she's still fairly inexperienced, so we'll have to see how she develops.
She speaks articulately, but does seem an empty suit, without a track record of delivery of anything.
So better than Starmer on the first point, and equal on the second.
What Starmer has done, though, is take full control of the Labour party. He is totally in charge. What he wants, happens - for good or ill. The next Tory leader needs to be able to do that before they can pivot to the centre.
Could an EU rejoin referendum be the price the Liberals ask for a coalition or confidence deal?
No, but an EFTA/EEA referendum could be on the cards.
The Lib Dems have form for agreeing to a referendum on the wrong question and undermining the position they actually support.
A cheap shot but not entirely without merit.
If I were Davey, I wouldn't even be thinking or talking about Labour at the moment - the aim has to be to maximise the LD vote and seat count. Re-building the local base is a big part of re-building the Westminster base and if the party can get to 20-25 seats next time that will be progress.
As others have said, events in Scotland might make Starmer's task of building a majority easier than it appeared 6 months ago. Currently polls are showing a 14% swing from Conservative to Labour in England but as 2017 and 2019 showed, local elections aren't a valuable guide for forecasting General Elections so for now, Davey can bask in a job well done and continue to build the Party's profile and a little bit of positive publicity from these results will do no harm.
Davey is a very good organiser and manager, and I think would manage NOC very astutely. Starmer too for that matter, as it is an effective way of reigning in his own headbangers.
With respect to the (at the moment) Conservative Prime Minister, hard for me to believe that, if Boris Johnson or Liz Truss were still at No. 10 instead of Rishi Sunak, the scale of Tory losses in the locals would have been significantly worse, and numbers for Labour, Lib Dems and Greens even better.
Not saying RS greatest thing since sliced bread but that at least he ain't digging the hole deeper.
The second impression is the impact of a co-ordinated anti-Conservative opposition.
The ending of the Conservative majorities in Broadland and Cherwell, as two examples, weren't because of a shift from the Conservatives to one opposition party but to all of Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green picking up seats presumably by not standing against each other or not working against each other.
Whether this co-ordination could exist to forming a joint administration remains to be seen and it's a tactic which can work at Council level but is more limited (though not unknown) at parliamentary level but it may be today's results will encourage more of this tacit anti-Conservative co-operation allied to a tactical voting message.
When I lived in Woking I was slightly derided 2 yrs ago for predicting the LibDems would take control of the council. They did just that. And now after today the tories only have 4 councillors left. Gobsmacking.
I've also just seen my new council Teignbridge turn from NOC to LibDem.
I'm clearly a LibDem taliswoman. Anyone want me to move in with them?
How's turnout in these elections? I'm seeing figures around 25% in Manchester, what what about more generally? It would be interesting to compare with previous locals.
Could we see a possible 1997 scenario for the Tories against the Lib Dems but more like 2005 versus Labour?
I don't see where 46 Lib Dem seats would be coming from. The Lib Dems went into the 1997 election with 800 more councillors, and three times as many councils, as the Conservatives.
There aren't going to be 46 LibDem MPs after the election. But I would be very surprised, now, if there were fewer than 20. Something in the 23 to 28 range looks quite possible for them.
I'm not going as far as 46 for the Lib Dems, but they have a chance of rebuilding the Yellow Wall through Cornwall, Devon and Somerset that they used to have prior to 2015. It's not outside probability to have 12 seats just in those 3 counties.
St Ives I can see going Yellow.
Wells is a possible.
But beyond there, I think the LDs will really struggle in the South West. They are a long way behind in their old heartlands. They are 15,000 votes behind in Cornwall North, for example.
Based on last year's Somerset elections, Yeovil, Glastonbury & Somerton and Wells & Mendip Hills have to be considered. Based on this year's elections, South West Devon, South Devon, Newton Abbot, Honiton and North Devon are on the table maybe Exmouth too. Obviously we don't have any data more recent than 2021 for Cornwall but that was an election where Conservatives were +7% on the PNS so there's a chance for Lib Dems to get 3 or 4.
'Of the ten councils, Labour run both cities of Exeter and Plymouth. The Liberal Democrats run North Devon, Mid Devon, Teignbridge and the South Hams, plus East Devon as part of a coalition with the Democratic Alliance. West Devon and Torridge councils are under no overall control, while Torbay is Conservative.'
Could an EU rejoin referendum be the price the Liberals ask for a coalition or confidence deal?
No, but an EFTA/EEA referendum could be on the cards.
The Lib Dems have form for agreeing to a referendum on the wrong question and undermining the position they actually support.
Joining the EEA is a much more plausible prospect than returning to the EU in anything other than the very long term, but it'll only happen when Labour decides it wants to and then wins an election with a manifesto commitment to do so.
EEA entry is a long way short of returning to the EU and would most likely be negotiated without a referendum.
The UK will never re-join EFTA. What's left of that club values pacific relations with the EU and would be afraid of ructions and, more to the point, a state the size of Britain would completely dominate it.
Could we see a possible 1997 scenario for the Tories against the Lib Dems but more like 2005 versus Labour?
I don't see where 46 Lib Dem seats would be coming from. The Lib Dems went into the 1997 election with 800 more councillors, and three times as many councils, as the Conservatives.
There aren't going to be 46 LibDem MPs after the election. But I would be very surprised, now, if there were fewer than 20. Something in the 23 to 28 range looks quite possible for them.
I'm not going as far as 46 for the Lib Dems, but they have a chance of rebuilding the Yellow Wall through Cornwall, Devon and Somerset that they used to have prior to 2015. It's not outside probability to have 12 seats just in those 3 counties.
I'd be surprised by that, but the Lib Dem results in Devon this year and Somerset last year were strikingly good. Cornwall was dismal, though, in 2021.
The Tiverton by-election may well have been the shot in the arm they needed there, and it does open up another front in addition to the stockbroker belt, where I have a suspicion that Sunak will ultimately steady the ship even though the results today are pretty poor for the blues.
There seems little evidence today of Sunak appealing to the Stockbroker belt, nor to the Red Wall for that matter.
Sunak = toast.
Yep I think this is the real problem. He falls between two stools.
He is nothing to anyone.
We have seen that with him stacking up goodwill amongst those PBers who would never vote for the Tories.
Could we see a possible 1997 scenario for the Tories against the Lib Dems but more like 2005 versus Labour?
I don't see where 46 Lib Dem seats would be coming from. The Lib Dems went into the 1997 election with 800 more councillors, and three times as many councils, as the Conservatives.
There aren't going to be 46 LibDem MPs after the election. But I would be very surprised, now, if there were fewer than 20. Something in the 23 to 28 range looks quite possible for them.
I'm not going as far as 46 for the Lib Dems, but they have a chance of rebuilding the Yellow Wall through Cornwall, Devon and Somerset that they used to have prior to 2015. It's not outside probability to have 12 seats just in those 3 counties.
St Ives I can see going Yellow.
Wells is a possible.
But beyond there, I think the LDs will really struggle in the South West. They are a long way behind in their old heartlands. They are 15,000 votes behind in Cornwall North, for example.
Based on last year's Somerset elections, Yeovil, Glastonbury & Somerton and Wells & Mendip Hills have to be considered. Based on this year's elections, South West Devon, South Devon, Newton Abbot, Honiton and North Devon are on the table maybe Exmouth too. Obviously we don't have any data more recent than 2021 for Cornwall but that was an election where Conservatives were +7% on the PNS so there's a chance for Lib Dems to get 3 or 4.
Looks like carnage for the Tories in formerly truest-blue Wealden: LibDems and Greens taking almost all the seats they contested (they seem to have had some kind of pact not to stand against each other). Gone to NOC.
True blue Wetherby in leafy, affluent, rural north east Leeds has gone Green today, giving them a majority of over a thousand.
Also, the local councillor who has played an instrumental role in turning the former Labour stronghold, the ex-mining town of Knottingley, solidly Lib Dem over the past few years has stood down this time. He is the PPC for Harrogate and Knaresborough - Blue since 2010 - and the gossip is that he fully expects to win the seat. Apparently the good people of leafy, affluent Harrogate and Knaresborough are livid because of Brexit.
The Conservatives are in trouble in affluent areas where their moderate supporters have been repelled by Brexit and what it’s done to the Party, bringing us the clown Johnson and the Truss Interregnum. They know the oven ready deal is shite, they know Brexit is damaging us economically, they resent the lost opportunities for themselves and their children, and they are eager to give this right-wing, culture-warring, batshit crazy Tory Party a kicking. They might not vote Labour but they will Lib Dem or Green. Bring it on. I’d love to see a Lab/Lib Dem coalition shifting us back towards Europe. Let sanity prevail.
Labour Brexiters have obviously also been bitterly disappointed by Brexit and Tory levelling up horseshit and will go back to Labour bigly.
Corbyn is gone, Brexit’s unicorns have been culled, and all the Tories have left is kulturkampf. And - hopefully - it won’t be enough. Starmer isn’t loved, but he isn’t despised like Corbyn was.
The second impression is the impact of a co-ordinated anti-Conservative opposition.
The ending of the Conservative majorities in Broadland and Cherwell, as two examples, weren't because of a shift from the Conservatives to one opposition party but to all of Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green picking up seats presumably by not standing against each other or not working against each other.
Whether this co-ordination could exist to forming a joint administration remains to be seen and it's a tactic which can work at Council level but is more limited (though not unknown) at parliamentary level but it may be today's results will encourage more of this tacit anti-Conservative co-operation allied to a tactical voting message.
Both Oxfordshire CC and West Oxfordshire DC are run by LD/Lab/Green coalitions. I'd be genuinely surprised if Cherwell doesn't go the same way, particularly as they don't really fight each other in that many wards (parts of Bicester at a pinch).
When I lived in Woking I was slightly derided 2 yrs ago for predicting the LibDems would take control of the council. They did just that. And now after today the tories only have 4 councillors left. Gobsmacking.
I've also just seen my new council Teignbridge turn from NOC to LibDem.
I'm clearly a LibDem taliswoman. Anyone want me to move in with them?
Heck yes. BUT be VERY careful what you wish for . . .
(Please feel free to forward your current photo AND bank statement.)
Could an EU rejoin referendum be the price the Liberals ask for a coalition or confidence deal?
No, but an EFTA/EEA referendum could be on the cards.
I don't think the main parties (beyond obviously the SNP) have a lot of appetite for referendums these days, and rightly so. Just stick it in the manifesto if you want to do it.
In terms of the Lib Dems demanding a referendum of any kind as a "price" I think it's absolutely for the birds. 2019 burned them badly on going too far out on a limb over the EU, and 2010 and AV referendum on the idea that they'd not be shafted in a referendum campaign. Davey knows all that better than anyone.
Yes at the moment looks like Labour biggest party but no majority, however clearly poor results for us in most places and looks like we are headed to opposition.
As KJH alluded to in the last thread I narrowly lost a seat to the LDs after a recount, their candidate was Parish chairman, having knocked it on the head at 7pm went over to help in Epping Lindsey which we ended up losing to the LDs by 300 votes. Such is life, will just focus on building up my profile locally over the next year. I did not stand again for Epping Town Council having moved though the LDs did mention my previous history in their usual Focus way. In EFDC we also lost one seat to the Independents in Grange Hill but picked up a seat from the Far Right in Waltham Abbey Paternoster with an excellent local candidate.
Congratulations to all candidates for their hard work and well done those who did get elected
Bad luck @Hyufd - was rooting for you. I’m sure you’ll be back soon and I know you do a great job for your community.
Seconded. Combatants like 'H' beat couch pundits like me any day. And doubly so when they're fighting the Far Right in Waltham Abbey.
How's turnout in these elections? I'm seeing figures around 25% in Manchester, what what about more generally? It would be interesting to compare with previous locals.
Is turnout % going to be reported based on those with id in future? I guess not possible so would expect a drop.
Am delighted to learn that the lady living opposite me has been elected as an independent, squeezing out one of the Tories here in true-blue Winchcombe. What's more, Tewkesbury Council has moved to NOC from a Tory hegemony, the LDs now forming the largest Party. She is therefore likely to be wooed extensively!
She has no declared political affiliation, and majored on potholes. You cannot imagine how important potholes are around here.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account
These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
Good.
And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:
"My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."
What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
The radius of a circle or sphere? The rank of a matrix? The set of all real numbers? A rational function?
Obvs the R class battleship crews.
Least useful design of battleship in the navy. More of Fishers Freaks would have been better
The Courageous and Glorious were so useless they were converted to carriers, and the Furious whilst she was still being built.
Which formed the first (relatively) uniform class of aircraft carriers in the world and under Admiral Henderson invented most of carrier doctrine. They served well into WWII.
By WWII the R class were an embarrassment. And of no use. Battleship status, but too weak to fight and too slow to run away. We managed to lend one to the Russians to get out of bothering to man it.
Building 21 knot, un-upgradable ships after the QEs….
Could an EU rejoin referendum be the price the Liberals ask for a coalition or confidence deal?
No, but an EFTA/EEA referendum could be on the cards.
The Lib Dems have form for agreeing to a referendum on the wrong question and undermining the position they actually support.
Joining the EEA is a much more plausible prospect than returning to the EU in anything other than the very long term, but it'll only happen when Labour decides it wants to and then wins an election with a manifesto commitment to do so.
EEA entry is a long way short of returning to the EU and would most likely be negotiated without a referendum.
The UK will never re-join EFTA. What's left of that club values pacific relations with the EU and would be afraid of ructions and, more to the point, a state the size of Britain would completely dominate it.
The EFTA court is an integral part of the EEA, so the two can't really be separated.
In practice the question of the UK joining that kind of shared single market arrangement would necessitate a renegotiation of the whole thing. It's not an off-the-shelf option for the UK.
The most notable thing in recent hours, perhaps, has been Labour supporters celebrating "anti-Tory" voting not pro-Labour voting.
Again, that is the massive, flashing danger sign for the Tories.
Under Corbyn, Labour activists and some Labour voters were as keen if not more keen to smash the Tory-enabling yellow scum.
Under Starmer, they are delighted to see a pincer movement so long as they are (and they certainly are) the big pincer in the north and midlands, while Lib Dems and Greens are the little pincer, holding down the Tories in areas which aren't realistically going Labour anyway, and preventing them pivoting firmly to voters in the red wall.
You're heading for a big tactical vote-fest when the General Election dawns, mark my words.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account
These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
Good.
And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:
"My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."
What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
It's a shame that John Redwood didn't win either of the Tory leadership elections he stood in. He could have brought events forward by 20 or 25 years.
Am delighted to learn that the lady living opposite me has been elected as an independent, squeezing out one of the Tories here in true-blue Winchcombe. What's more, Tewkesbury Council has moved to NOC from a Tory hegemony, the LDs now forming the largest Party. She is therefore likely to be wooed extensively!
She has no declared political affiliation, and majored on potholes. You cannot imagine how important potholes are around here.
Do you think she's likely to do a good job?
IF she's schools herself pronto, on the job re: basics & finer points of asphalt, road graders, dump trucks, etc.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account
These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
Good.
And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:
"My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."
What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
It's a shame that John Redwood didn't win either of the Tory leadership elections he stood in. He could have brought events forward by 20 or 25 years.
Redwood is much better on policy than he is on politics.
I did suggest the other day that I could see the LibDems gaining 20 seats at the next GE and I'm going to stick with that. Constituencies in Surrey, Somerset, Devon are very vulnerable to them now.
Hasn’t helped that the water companies have been discharging sewage into the river bourne round here. Don’t underestimate the effect that’s having on votes..
I think some are confusing “anti-Tory” with “anti-incumbent”.
The Greens have made a right mess of running Brighton.
No doubt those other places which have gone Green will regret the experience in due course.
The wards that have stayed Green have tended to be more students, while residential wards have swung Labour. The Green Council ex-leader may be in danger of losing his seat - recount with Labour ahead rumoured.
Could we see a possible 1997 scenario for the Tories against the Lib Dems but more like 2005 versus Labour?
I don't see where 46 Lib Dem seats would be coming from. The Lib Dems went into the 1997 election with 800 more councillors, and three times as many councils, as the Conservatives.
There aren't going to be 46 LibDem MPs after the election. But I would be very surprised, now, if there were fewer than 20. Something in the 23 to 28 range looks quite possible for them.
I'm not going as far as 46 for the Lib Dems, but they have a chance of rebuilding the Yellow Wall through Cornwall, Devon and Somerset that they used to have prior to 2015. It's not outside probability to have 12 seats just in those 3 counties.
St Ives I can see going Yellow.
Wells is a possible.
But beyond there, I think the LDs will really struggle in the South West. They are a long way behind in their old heartlands. They are 15,000 votes behind in Cornwall North, for example.
Somerset is seeing major change in the boundary review and the new Wells and Mendip Hills seat is worse for the LDs than the current seat. However, Taunton and Yeovil are both better for them as they shed rural wards. The top LD targets in the SW on the new boundaries will be:
Cheltenham St Ives Taunton Devon North Yeovil Dorset West Chippenham Thornbury and Yate Glastonbury and Somerton Wells and Mendip Hills
Cheltenham and St Ives are the low hanging fruit. Taunton is 3rd on the list but would have had a 9k Con majority in 2019
Could an EU rejoin referendum be the price the Liberals ask for a coalition or confidence deal?
No, but an EFTA/EEA referendum could be on the cards.
The Lib Dems have form for agreeing to a referendum on the wrong question and undermining the position they actually support.
Joining the EEA is a much more plausible prospect than returning to the EU in anything other than the very long term, but it'll only happen when Labour decides it wants to and then wins an election with a manifesto commitment to do so.
EEA entry is a long way short of returning to the EU and would most likely be negotiated without a referendum.
The UK will never re-join EFTA. What's left of that club values pacific relations with the EU and would be afraid of ructions and, more to the point, a state the size of Britain would completely dominate it.
The EFTA court is an integral part of the EEA, so the two can't really be separated.
In practice the question of the UK joining that kind of shared single market arrangement would necessitate a renegotiation of the whole thing. It's not an off-the-shelf option for the UK.
The post Brexit arrangements are up for review and renewal every 5 years. I think an EEA style deal is very possible.
Comments
Rishi Sunak
Penny Mordaunt
Tom Tugendhat
Liz Truss
Suella Braverman
Jeremy Hunt
Kemi Badenoch
Nadhim Zahawi
I think we can cross Zahawi off the list, and I'm not sure the party will be prepared to go for Hunt. Tugendhat is probably the best bet for One Nation types.
Of course, one name is missing from that list, the hero our nation needs. No, not you Boris. Step forward, for your time has come, Rehman Chishti.
Not so any more
Starmers Labour is clearly not toxic in the Red Wall.
First impressions of the local elections result - it's not 1995 by any stretch. That year there were no crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives but this time there are more than a few examples of better or at least not too bad results and a couple of authorities gained or perhaps re-gained having been lost to by-elections or to defections or splits within groups.
As for Labour, some spectacular results but others less inspiring and more limited headway in some of the new Conservative heartlands of the north and midlands as well as eastern England which is the other area of core Conservative strength.
The Liberal Democrats can be very pleased with the result - defending the 700 gains from 2019 wasn't going to be easy but coming out ahead and taking control of some new councils is a big step ahead - the one disappointment so far might be the failure to take East Cambridgeshire.
The Greens are also doing very well and cutting into areas which haven't of late been so good for the Liberal Democrats so the Conservatives and Labour face being caught between the Lib Dem rock and the Green hard place.
Independents have had a mixed time of it but clearly there are areas where the anti-Conservative or protest vote has moved to them rather than to Labour, LD or Green.
Plenty of interesting results still to come....
The Tiverton by-election may well have been the shot in the arm they needed there, and it does open up another front in addition to the stockbroker belt, where I have a suspicion that Sunak will ultimately steady the ship even though the results today are pretty poor for the blues.
Wells is a possible.
But beyond there, I think the LDs will really struggle in the South West. They are a long way behind in their old heartlands. They are 15,000 votes behind in Cornwall North, for example.
Labour now need 5 for a majority administration for the first time since 1999 #Brighton #Hove #LDreporter
https://twitter.com/BHDemocracyNews/status/1654519436424929280?s=20
Sunak = toast.
She is in the ideal role in trade/business - it's one of those roles that doesn't really attract an awful lot of day to day scrutiny. The trade brief gives you the opportunity to do a few handshakes in front of flags. See how Truss, Liz, used it as a launchpad...
She could quite easily come unstuck but the route for her is much clearer than any of the other potential candidates. She doesn't have the baggage of someone like Braverman (who sadly I feel will be the other leading contender).
As I have previously stated, it's this double pincer movement of deliberately anti-tory voting which I'm sure is going to see the Conservatives get an absolute shellacking at the next general election.
I voted for 3 LibDems and 1 Labour candidate in my council (Teignbridge) and it contributed to seeing it go from NOC to a LibDem gain, which I am absolutely delighted about.
If I were Davey, I wouldn't even be thinking or talking about Labour at the moment - the aim has to be to maximise the LD vote and seat count. Re-building the local base is a big part of re-building the Westminster base and if the party can get to 20-25 seats next time that will be progress.
As others have said, events in Scotland might make Starmer's task of building a majority easier than it appeared 6 months ago. Currently polls are showing a 14% swing from Conservative to Labour in England but as 2017 and 2019 showed, local elections aren't a valuable guide for forecasting General Elections so for now, Davey can bask in a job well done and continue to build the Party's profile and a little bit of positive publicity from these results will do no harm.
In any event, they wouldn't have enough bargaining power in a Hung Parliament to extract really big concessions, because they won't push the nuclear button and back the Tories instead, and Starmer knows this. So, no big moves towards the EU that Labour can't accept, and no electoral reform either. Best they can do is threaten to withhold support in selected votes where they think they can get away with voting with the Tory Opposition, and use this to buy concessions in policy areas that aren't deemed of vital importance to the Government.
And so it goes on ...
He is nothing to anyone.
Not saying RS greatest thing since sliced bread but that at least he ain't digging the hole deeper.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000131
LD +2 to 13, Green +3 from 0, Lab +2 from 1 Con -7 to 15
LLG coalition in Harborough methinks.
The ending of the Conservative majorities in Broadland and Cherwell, as two examples, weren't because of a shift from the Conservatives to one opposition party but to all of Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green picking up seats presumably by not standing against each other or not working against each other.
Whether this co-ordination could exist to forming a joint administration remains to be seen and it's a tactic which can work at Council level but is more limited (though not unknown) at parliamentary level but it may be today's results will encourage more of this tacit anti-Conservative co-operation allied to a tactical voting message.
I've also just seen my new council Teignbridge turn from NOC to LibDem.
I'm clearly a LibDem taliswoman. Anyone want me to move in with them?
Vale looks very good indeed for us (and the Greens)
'Of the ten councils, Labour run both cities of Exeter and Plymouth. The Liberal Democrats run North Devon, Mid Devon, Teignbridge and the South Hams, plus East Devon as part of a coalition with the Democratic Alliance. West Devon and Torridge councils are under no overall control, while Torbay is Conservative.'
https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/devon-local-elections-liberal-democrats-8418052
EEA entry is a long way short of returning to the EU and would most likely be negotiated without a referendum.
The UK will never re-join EFTA. What's left of that club values pacific relations with the EU and would be afraid of ructions and, more to the point, a state the size of Britain would completely dominate it.
Also, the local councillor who has played an instrumental role in turning the former Labour stronghold, the ex-mining town of Knottingley, solidly Lib Dem over the past few years has stood down this time. He is the PPC for Harrogate and Knaresborough - Blue since 2010 - and the gossip is that he fully expects to win the seat. Apparently the good people of leafy, affluent Harrogate and Knaresborough are livid because of Brexit.
The Conservatives are in trouble in affluent areas where their moderate supporters have been repelled by Brexit and what it’s done to the Party, bringing us the clown Johnson and the Truss Interregnum. They know the oven ready deal is shite, they know Brexit is damaging us economically, they resent the lost opportunities for themselves and their children, and they are eager to give this right-wing, culture-warring, batshit crazy Tory Party a kicking. They might not vote Labour but they will Lib Dem or Green. Bring it on. I’d love to see a Lab/Lib Dem coalition shifting us back towards Europe. Let sanity prevail.
Labour Brexiters have obviously also been bitterly disappointed by Brexit and Tory levelling up horseshit and will go back to Labour bigly.
Corbyn is gone, Brexit’s unicorns have been culled, and all the Tories have left is kulturkampf. And - hopefully - it won’t be enough. Starmer isn’t loved, but he isn’t despised like Corbyn was.
Who are these slacker 40 councils?
(Please feel free to forward your current photo AND bank statement.)
As the results continue to flood in, Labour has now become the largest party in local government.
The party has surpassed the Conservatives for the first time since 2002.
Here are the seat results so far, with gains and losses in brackets:
Labour: 1,957 (+413)
Conservatives: 1,749 (-772)
Liberal Democrats: 1,204 (+280)
Greens: 325 (+180)
Other: 793 (-101)
In terms of the Lib Dems demanding a referendum of any kind as a "price" I think it's absolutely for the birds. 2019 burned them badly on going too far out on a limb over the EU, and 2010 and AV referendum on the idea that they'd not be shafted in a referendum campaign. Davey knows all that better than anyone.
AND does this make HYUFD one of the Essex Antifa?
She has no declared political affiliation, and majored on potholes. You cannot imagine how important potholes are around here.
Nervous, Mr Gove?
"My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."
What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
LibDem 13 (+7)
Green 11 (+7)
Indies 10 (+3)
Con 9 (-19)
Lab 2 (+2)
Well, I did warn 'em...
Liberal Democrat 28
Conservative 12
Labour 11
Christchurch Independents 8
Green 5
Poole People 5
Poole Engage 2
Independents 5
By WWII the R class were an embarrassment. And of no use. Battleship status, but too weak to fight and too slow to run away. We managed to lend one to the Russians to get out of bothering to man it.
Building 21 knot, un-upgradable ships after the QEs….
In practice the question of the UK joining that kind of shared single market arrangement would necessitate a renegotiation of the whole thing. It's not an off-the-shelf option for the UK.
https://twitter.com/BHDemocracyNews/status/1654532493981229063?s=20
I think some are confusing “anti-Tory” with “anti-incumbent”.
That would exceed the figure they put about for expectations management purposes.
No doubt those other places which have gone Green will regret the experience in due course.
Under Corbyn, Labour activists and some Labour voters were as keen if not more keen to smash the Tory-enabling yellow scum.
Under Starmer, they are delighted to see a pincer movement so long as they are (and they certainly are) the big pincer in the north and midlands, while Lib Dems and Greens are the little pincer, holding down the Tories in areas which aren't realistically going Labour anyway, and preventing them pivoting firmly to voters in the red wall.
You're heading for a big tactical vote-fest when the General Election dawns, mark my words.
IF she's schools herself pronto, on the job re: basics & finer points of asphalt, road graders, dump trucks, etc.
LibDems 21 (+14)
Cons 6 (-12)
Lab 2 (+1)
Others 6 (0)
I did suggest the other day that I could see the LibDems gaining 20 seats at the next GE and I'm going to stick with that. Constituencies in Surrey, Somerset, Devon are very vulnerable to them now.
And as with Vale, this is after the LibDems have been running it for four years.
https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1654529863879933952
The latest Omnisis national poll - out today - has a 21 point Labour lead.
https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1654487077138968579
Cheltenham
St Ives
Taunton
Devon North
Yeovil
Dorset West
Chippenham
Thornbury and Yate
Glastonbury and Somerton
Wells and Mendip Hills
Cheltenham and St Ives are the low hanging fruit. Taunton is 3rd on the list but would have had a 9k Con majority in 2019