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LAB has 9% lead in BBC Projected National Share – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,613
edited May 2023 in General
LAB has 9% lead in BBC Projected National Share – politicalbetting.com

The figures are:

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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    edited May 2023
    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Interesting times in Brighton - Green Council leader reportedly in trouble to Labour.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,704
    HYUFD said (previous thread):
    House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72

    I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    londonpubman said:

    HYUFD said (previous thread):
    House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72

    I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.

    Indeed The Thrash himself was saying exactly that on Sky earlier – the Celtic nations might carry Labour to a majority, but we cannot forecast that because we don't have any data from there (they aren't voting today)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,629
    We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).

    Lab +264
    Con -470
    LD +151
    IND -38
    Grn +105
    RA -4

    So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    londonpubman said:

    HYUFD said (previous thread):
    House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72

    I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.

    I think Labour may well be looking for an additional 20 MPs from Scotland. Which might just be enough.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,789
    Greens taking control of Mid Suffolk is interesting.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,189
    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Greens GAIN Mid Suffolk was not a result I was expecting (with my untrained eye).

    Do they control any other councils (other than Brighton)??
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    DavidL said:

    londonpubman said:

    HYUFD said (previous thread):
    House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72

    I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.

    I think Labour may well be looking for an additional 20 MPs from Scotland. Which might just be enough.
    Indeed that's the key factor I think
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    The Tories nearly took Slough from Labour gaining 16 seats, that must be one badly run Council
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    Benpointer said:

    We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).

    Lab +264
    Con -470
    LD +151
    IND -38
    Grn +105
    RA -4

    So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.

    LD + Green gains > Labour. Interesting.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Labour GAIN Dover
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    As I said days ago, whatever happens Keir Starmer will be called crap and Labour "underwhelming".

    9 point lead and they lost in a landslide just over 3 years ago
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,569
    Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.

    Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.

    As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,297
    Malmesbury said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?
    After WWII. Times were difficult for all sorts of reasons, but wartime inflation did fall away.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited May 2023
    The 9% lead is decent enough I suppose but is that 35% share and 4-5% Con to Lab swing really good enough for Labour to springboard to victory at the next election particularly from their very low starting point?

    Granted there has been a lot of anti-Tory tactical voting going on but I don't know... No wonder Curtice is hedging his bets..
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Anabobazina said:

    Greens GAIN Mid Suffolk was not a result I was expecting (with my untrained eye).

    Do they control any other councils (other than Brighton)??

    The most bizarre Off Topicking of all time??
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    Malmesbury said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?
    Not that immediately comes to mind. But, of course, those experts in the BoE and OBR may well know better.

    In theory, if you had a burst of inflation from a specific source like gas it could go without wider damage but in practice the ripple effects on wages, goods produced with energy, transport etc spread out and assuming there is not going to be a reaction to that is, well, optimistic.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,334
    Benpointer said:

    We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).

    Lab +264
    Con -470
    LD +151
    IND -38
    Grn +105
    RA -4

    So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.

    Or perhaps if they bring on their subs they could turn it around in the second half?

    #why politics is not like football.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,436
    Anabobazina said:

    Greens GAIN Mid Suffolk was not a result I was expecting (with my untrained eye).

    Do they control any other councils (other than Brighton)??

    It was suggested as a possibility on BBC East the other day. It will be interesting to see what the (to me anyway) rather pro-Tory political correspondent makes of it.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    MarqueeMark said:


    Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.

    Which party were you canvassing for? :wink:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,297
    edited May 2023
    FPT, South Hams is no posher than Torbay, overall. Salcombe and Dartmouth are outliers.

    And Totnes and the Dart Valley are like Summerisle in the Wicker Man.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2023
    In summary: not all that great for Labour in terms of their prospects for a majority at the GE, except that the geographic distribution of the swing looks quite favourable to them. So I think we're headed for Labour either just short of a majority, or with a small majority.

    But 'Scotland, Scotland?', I hear you ask. Well, quite. The historical comparatives are with the periods when Labour dominated Scottish Westminster seats. They need to do at least as well as, or preferably better than, they've done in the locals in England & Wales, AND claw back a good chunk of the seats they've mislaid in Scotland.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    Benpointer said:

    We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).

    Lab +264
    Con -470
    LD +151
    IND -38
    Grn +105
    RA -4

    So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.

    I still think it will prove lower. What is interesting is that over the last 45 minutes or so the number of Labour gains has almost ground to a halt. I wonder if the Lib Dems may get pretty close to catching them once this is over.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,433
    GIN1138 said:

    To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,629
    ThomasNashe said:

    Benpointer said:

    We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).

    Lab +264
    Con -470
    LD +151
    IND -38
    Grn +105
    RA -4

    So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.

    Or perhaps if they bring on their subs they could turn it around in the second half?

    #why politics is not like football.
    Lol How many games do you see the same score in each half? (Apart from the 0-0 ers obvs!)
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,334
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Benpointer said:

    We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).

    Lab +264
    Con -470
    LD +151
    IND -38
    Grn +105
    RA -4

    So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.

    LD + Green gains > Labour. Interesting.
    Yes, that neatly summarises what is, I think, the most surprising and interesting aspect of all this.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,397
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Benpointer said:

    We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).

    Lab +264
    Con -470
    LD +151
    IND -38
    Grn +105
    RA -4

    So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.

    LD + Green gains > Labour. Interesting.
    I don't think that's as interesting as the fact that it's been a good round of elections for all three main non-Tory parties. That pretty strongly suggests to me that people are looking for their best bet to oust the Conservatives, and going for that. That is a bad position for the blues to be in.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,822
    edited May 2023
    Is that it? On that basis the Tories can return to their constituencies and prepare for (yet more) Government.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    MarqueeMark said:

    Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.

    Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.

    As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...

    Conservatives as disliked (maybe more so, but I think you're right about striking/apathetic voters who will largely come home) as 1997. Labour much less popular than 1997 though. Starmer has work to do for a majority, but he should be PM.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,629
    DavidL said:

    Malmesbury said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?
    Not that immediately comes to mind. But, of course, those experts in the BoE and OBR may well know better.

    In theory, if you had a burst of inflation from a specific source like gas it could go without wider damage but in practice the ripple effects on wages, goods produced with energy, transport etc spread out and assuming there is not going to be a reaction to that is, well, optimistic.
    That's why we should have done what the French did and largely protect consumers and businesses from the energy price spike.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,483
    londonpubman said:

    HYUFD said (previous thread):
    House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72

    I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.

    Indeed, and likely to be significant tactical voting too.

    Sunak = toast.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,334
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Benpointer said:

    We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).

    Lab +264
    Con -470
    LD +151
    IND -38
    Grn +105
    RA -4

    So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.

    LD + Green gains > Labour. Interesting.
    I don't think that's as interesting as the fact that it's been a good round of elections for all three main non-Tory parties. That pretty strongly suggests to me that people are looking for their best bet to oust the Conservatives, and going for that. That is a bad position for the blues to be in.
    OK. But in the vast majority of places the Greens would not have been the obvious choice for the anti-Tory vote.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 787
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In summary: not all that great for Labour in terms of their prospects for a majority at the GE, except that the geographic distribution of the swing looks quite favourable to them. So I think we're headed for Labour either just short of a majority, or with a small majority.

    But 'Scotland, Scotland?', I hear you ask. Well, quite. The historical comparatives are with the periods when Labour dominated Scottish Westminster seats. They need to do at least as well as, or preferably better than, they've done in the locals in England & Wales, AND claw back a good chunk of the seats they've mislaid in Scotland.

    There are no locals in Wales....
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,397
    NerysHughes said:

    The Tories nearly took Slough from Labour gaining 16 seats, that must be one badly run Council

    Oh, it is a basket case alright. Bankrupted by total incompetence - one of those.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,433
    edited May 2023
    MarqueeMark said:

    Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.

    Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.

    As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...

    There is no love for the Conservatives in South Hams either.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    Mexicanpete said:

    GIN1138 said:

    To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.
    Really? After the total embarrassment that was late Boris and the unmitigated shambles that was Truss, to be only 9% behind? It could and should be a lot worse. I am not suggesting it is a good result. I am suggesting that it is as good as they could expect in very difficult circumstances.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,483
    ThomasNashe said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Benpointer said:

    We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).

    Lab +264
    Con -470
    LD +151
    IND -38
    Grn +105
    RA -4

    So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.

    LD + Green gains > Labour. Interesting.
    Yes, that neatly summarises what is, I think, the most surprising and interesting aspect of all this.
    Not really. Green and LD gains are mostly in suburban or Shire areas, Labour in the cities. This round of locals is weighted to LD and Green targets.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited May 2023
    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    Anecdata;

    Just yesterday went shopping for double glazing, here in the midlands. I started pushing them a bit on price and the boss, clearly with not much to do, introduced himself and took over from the salesman.

    He gave the impression things are a bit grim, looking forward, and he used the word “recession” more than once.

    The omens aren’t good, whatever the stats say.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,223
    londonpubman said:

    HYUFD said (previous thread):
    House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72

    I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.

    Plus a big bloc of Residents' Association MPs and assorted wingnuts.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,822
    Selebian said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.

    Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.

    As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...

    Conservatives as disliked (maybe more so, but I think you're right about striking/apathetic voters who will largely come home) as 1997. Labour much less popular than 1997 though. Starmer has work to do for a majority, but he should be PM.
    Are the Tories as disliked as they were then? I don’t think so. People forget how universal the “time for a change” message was in ‘97 and how much we all despised them. The politically motivated might dislike them now, but they aren’t yet instinctively hated by the man on the Clapham omnibus.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Only 9% in the middle of a cost of living crisis

    I have to genuinely ask the question, without any irony:

    SKS fans, please explain?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,397
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, South Hams is no posher than Torbay, overall. Salcombe and Dartmouth are outliers.

    And Totnes and the Dart Valley are like Summerisle in the Wicker Man.

    What! South Hams is miles posher than Torbay.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,811
    edited May 2023
    Benpointer said:

    We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).

    Lab +264
    Con -470
    LD +151
    IND -38
    Grn +105
    RA -4

    So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.

    Strangely enough at 12.00 PM last night I posted a prediction from (I think) John Curtice which based on what he'd seen so far gave the Tories -800 and Labour +500.

    perhaps I owe him an apology
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,483
    Mexicanpete said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.

    Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.

    As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...

    There is no love for the Conservatives in South Hams either.
    Perhaps the loss of meerkat garden ornaments is symbolic of the decline of the South Hams Tories.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Penddu2 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In summary: not all that great for Labour in terms of their prospects for a majority at the GE, except that the geographic distribution of the swing looks quite favourable to them. So I think we're headed for Labour either just short of a majority, or with a small majority.

    But 'Scotland, Scotland?', I hear you ask. Well, quite. The historical comparatives are with the periods when Labour dominated Scottish Westminster seats. They need to do at least as well as, or preferably better than, they've done in the locals in England & Wales, AND claw back a good chunk of the seats they've mislaid in Scotland.

    There are no locals in Wales....
    My poor phrasing,. I meant that at the GE, they need to do as well in England & Wales, as they've done in the locals as measured by the NEV (which takes account of where there were contests).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,433
    DavidL said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    GIN1138 said:

    To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.
    Really? After the total embarrassment that was late Boris and the unmitigated shambles that was Truss, to be only 9% behind? It could and should be a lot worse. I am not suggesting it is a good result. I am suggesting that it is as good as they could expect in very difficult circumstances.
    There is an article on the previous thread that suggests the 9% equates with the current 15% Labour lead in the polls. You are also ignoring a massive result for both LDs and Greens.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    Roger said:

    Benpointer said:

    We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).

    Lab +264
    Con -470
    LD +151
    IND -38
    Grn +105
    RA -4

    So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.

    Strangely enough at 12.00 PM last night I posted a prediction from (I think) John Curtice which based on what he's seen so far gave the Tories -800 and Labour +500.

    perhaps I owe him an apology
    I apologise to him too. I thought 500 for Labour was too low. I now think they won’t get near it.

    If we have only reached half seat stage, can’t rule out Tory’s going over 1000 losses.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Con losses now 29.6% of seats defended.

    Was a bit over 33% (maybe 35%?) around 5am.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,756
    DavidL said:

    londonpubman said:

    HYUFD said (previous thread):
    House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72

    I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.

    I think Labour may well be looking for an additional 20 MPs from Scotland. Which might just be enough.
    If you asked me to call it, at the moment, I would suggest Labour are going to eke out a small majority with the help of some Scottish gains. 330 - 340 seats or so.

    I could quite easily see that being a tad higher, or indeed lower and getting us into HP territory. What I don't see in the tea leaves right now is Labour cruising for a 80+ seat majority or similar.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    ping said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    Anecdata;

    Just yesterday went shopping for double glazing, here in the midlands. I started pushing them a bit on price and the boss, clearly with not much to do, introduced himself and took over from the salesman.

    He gave the impression things are a bit grim, looking forward, and he used the word “recession” more than once.

    The omens aren’t good, whatever the stats say.
    This was encouraging: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/service-sector-pmi-grows-at-fastest-rate-for-a-year-5dbqcs3jf?shareToken=d6a73c5661f268503119e90fbad4cb8b
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,433
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Only 9% in the middle of a cost of living crisis

    I have to genuinely ask the question, without any irony:

    SKS fans, please explain?

    Why are PB Tories ignoring the LDs and Greens? It's like they have an agenda for spin.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,789
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, South Hams is no posher than Torbay, overall. Salcombe and Dartmouth are outliers.

    And Totnes and the Dart Valley are like Summerisle in the Wicker Man.

    I'd dispute that. I think South Hams is overall more upmarket than Torbay.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Mexicanpete said:

    DavidL said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    GIN1138 said:

    To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.
    Really? After the total embarrassment that was late Boris and the unmitigated shambles that was Truss, to be only 9% behind? It could and should be a lot worse. I am not suggesting it is a good result. I am suggesting that it is as good as they could expect in very difficult circumstances.
    There is an article on the previous thread that suggests the 9% equates with the current 15% Labour lead in the polls. You are also ignoring a massive result for both LDs and Greens.
    William Hague used to get 40% in the Locals so 35% for Labour is maybe not so great.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,568
    DavidL said:

    Malmesbury said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?
    Not that immediately comes to mind. But, of course, those experts in the BoE and OBR may well know better.

    In theory, if you had a burst of inflation from a specific source like gas it could go without wider damage but in practice the ripple effects on wages, goods produced with energy, transport etc spread out and assuming there is not going to be a reaction to that is, well, optimistic.
    The big April '22 spike is about to drop off the YoY inflation rate.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,297
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, South Hams is no posher than Torbay, overall. Salcombe and Dartmouth are outliers.

    And Totnes and the Dart Valley are like Summerisle in the Wicker Man.

    What! South Hams is miles posher than Torbay.
    Not inland. Parts of the hinterland are pretty depressed.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,405
    17% swing Labour to Tory for Leicester Mayor. I know there's been a big kerfuffle in the Labour group there but if the council swings 17% then it'll be NOC.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,483
    Anabobazina said:

    Labour GAIN Dover

    Brexit traffic queues not very popular.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    biggles said:

    Selebian said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.

    Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.

    As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...

    Conservatives as disliked (maybe more so, but I think you're right about striking/apathetic voters who will largely come home) as 1997. Labour much less popular than 1997 though. Starmer has work to do for a majority, but he should be PM.
    Are the Tories as disliked as they were then? I don’t think so. People forget how universal the “time for a change” message was in ‘97 and how much we all despised them. The politically motivated might dislike them now, but they aren’t yet instinctively hated by the man on the Clapham omnibus.
    There was also the small matter of Tony Blair being probably the best retail politician that this country has ever seen.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,354
    edited May 2023
    Errr, have we done this?

    "Boris Johnson records election clip inside moving car without seatbelt on"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/05/boris-johnson-records-election-clip-inside-moving-car-without-seatbelt-on

    "Boris Johnson could add to his record of minor criminal misdemeanours after being filmed inside a moving car while apparently not wearing a seatbelt, an offence for which Rishi Sunak was fined in January.

    The 42-second clip, recorded for a local Tory group, sees Johnson in the back of a moving car, urging people in Derbyshire to vote in Thursday’s local elections.

    Johnson says to the camera: “Hi folks, this is Boris Johnson appealing to all Derbyshire Conservatives to get out tomorrow.” He appears to be not wearing a seatbelt."
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,330
    londonpubman said:

    HYUFD said (previous thread):
    House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72

    I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.

    18 in Ulster, 3 Plaid, 1 Green and I imagine the grumpy/sleazy group will all vanish at the election. (Though a PPB by them would be fun to watch. How many would they need for that?)

    So that's 22 other others, which would mean 50 SNP, which seems on the high side. Shift 20 from SNP to Labour and they're on 332.

    Had you offered Labour that in January 2020, they'd have taken that. Right now, I suspect the big three parties would all settle for that, and the country would probably be broadly OK with it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited May 2023
    Mexicanpete said:

    GIN1138 said:

    To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.
    In response to your message to me in the the previous thread, I actually think it would be in the Conservatives interests to lose the next election and have a spell in opposition because I think if they somehow hold on when the mood of the country is towards change they will face a 97 type obliteration in the 2029 election.

    But I have to call it as I see it and whilst yes this has been a bad result for CON a 9% LAB lead and especially the 35% projected vote share and 4-5% Con to Lab swing just looks a bit... low in the circumstances?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,513
    Please note that a 9% Labour lead on a grossed-up Local basis maps to a bigger one at a GE.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    OldKingCole said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Greens GAIN Mid Suffolk was not a result I was expecting (with my untrained eye).

    Do they control any other councils (other than Brighton)??

    It was suggested as a possibility on BBC East the other day. It will be interesting to see what the (to me anyway) rather pro-Tory political correspondent makes of it.
    Is Laura K working out of Ipswich these days then?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Jonathan said:

    NEV share compared to last time these seats were fought for reference.

    2019 c28 l28 ld19 o25
    2023 c26 l35 ld20 o19

    I think that’s the PNS.

    https://electionsetc.com/2013/05/01/local-elections-vote-shares-the-bbc-pns-and-rallings-thrasher-nev-compared/
    Yes they are both the PNS figures. NEV in 2019 was 31/31/17/21, so higher for Lab and Con there. R&T have the good sense to wait until more than half the results are out before releasing anything.

    To be honest, I'm a tad sceptical about any projection that says the two main parties would only pick up 61% of the vote between them across GB, based on English local election results from the provinces only.

    Rather intriguing though if those figures stand. With the Conservatives down only 2 on 2019 you wouldn't expect them to be well on course for 800+ losses. It just shows that both Labour, LD and Green votes are being distributed more efficiently than previously to pick up local government seats.
    I agree. I suspect they aren’t building any tactical voting at all into their projection, on what is a completely different type of election at the GE. What do the Green vote in Worcester do for example. How can we ask them to know or even make a guess for us, to be fair?

    Also there is still half to count, before we write it up as 9% PNS is the final headline.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Dialup said:

    As I said days ago, whatever happens Keir Starmer will be called crap and Labour "underwhelming".

    9 point lead and they lost in a landslide just over 3 years ago

    It is a valid point and for that he should be congratulated, it is quite an achievement. That said, this is very midterm in a cost of living crisis. If everything else remains equal we can expect that 9 point lead to erode, to what, maybe 5%?

    There are still lots of things for SKS fans to be explaining.

    I for one, that somewhat fears a Labour majority, but think that the Tories need a reset, will be OK with Labour minority government with LDs supporting
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,673
    MoonRabbit said:

    Roger said:

    Benpointer said:

    We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).

    Lab +264
    Con -470
    LD +151
    IND -38
    Grn +105
    RA -4

    So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.

    Strangely enough at 12.00 PM last night I posted a prediction from (I think) John Curtice which based on what he's seen so far gave the Tories -800 and Labour +500.

    perhaps I owe him an apology
    I apologise to him too. I thought 500 for Labour was too low. I now think they won’t get near it.

    If we have only reached half seat stage, can’t rule out Tory’s going over 1000 losses.
    Lib Dems looking solid for over 200 gains. Places like Tewkesbury and Mid Devon are kicking the Tories pretty hard
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,189
    Sean_F said:

    Malmesbury said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?
    After WWII. Times were difficult for all sorts of reasons, but wartime inflation did fall away.
    The economic circumstances and policies adopted after the war would certainly count as "painful", I think.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,700
    edited May 2023
    NerysHughes said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    DavidL said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    GIN1138 said:

    To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.
    Really? After the total embarrassment that was late Boris and the unmitigated shambles that was Truss, to be only 9% behind? It could and should be a lot worse. I am not suggesting it is a good result. I am suggesting that it is as good as they could expect in very difficult circumstances.
    There is an article on the previous thread that suggests the 9% equates with the current 15% Labour lead in the polls. You are also ignoring a massive result for both LDs and Greens.
    William Hague used to get 40% in the Locals so 35% for Labour is maybe not so great.
    The article, which traces the relationship series back to the 1970s, very much states that NEVs vs polling leads are not comparable between Tory opposition spells and Labour ones.

    Linked again here:

    https://beyondthetopline.substack.com/p/forget-the-party-spin-what-does-history
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,947
    Mexicanpete said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Only 9% in the middle of a cost of living crisis

    I have to genuinely ask the question, without any irony:

    SKS fans, please explain?

    Why are PB Tories ignoring the LDs and Greens? It's like they have an agenda for spin.
    Rather, a FPTP cartel to protect.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Malmesbury said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?
    Not that immediately comes to mind. But, of course, those experts in the BoE and OBR may well know better.

    In theory, if you had a burst of inflation from a specific source like gas it could go without wider damage but in practice the ripple effects on wages, goods produced with energy, transport etc spread out and assuming there is not going to be a reaction to that is, well, optimistic.
    That's why we should have done what the French did and largely protect consumers and businesses from the energy price spike.
    Might have been easier had we not sold off our utilities to foreign governments including, er, France...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,947
    NerysHughes said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    DavidL said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    GIN1138 said:

    To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.
    Really? After the total embarrassment that was late Boris and the unmitigated shambles that was Truss, to be only 9% behind? It could and should be a lot worse. I am not suggesting it is a good result. I am suggesting that it is as good as they could expect in very difficult circumstances.
    There is an article on the previous thread that suggests the 9% equates with the current 15% Labour lead in the polls. You are also ignoring a massive result for both LDs and Greens.
    William Hague used to get 40% in the Locals so 35% for Labour is maybe not so great.
    And the current 26% for the Tories ?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited May 2023
    SandyRentool said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Labour GAIN Dover

    "Stop the Boats" going down well then.
    Maybe the locals misinterpreted the message and assumed Fishy Rishi was going to block shipping into Dover?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,330
    CatMan said:

    Errr, have we done this?

    "Boris Johnson records election clip inside moving car without seatbelt on"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/05/boris-johnson-records-election-clip-inside-moving-car-without-seatbelt-on

    "Boris Johnson could add to his record of minor criminal misdemeanours after being filmed inside a moving car while apparently not wearing a seatbelt, an offence for which Rishi Sunak was fined in January.

    The 42-second clip, recorded for a local Tory group, sees Johnson in the back of a moving car, urging people in Derbyshire to vote in Thursday’s local elections.

    Johnson says to the camera: “Hi folks, this is Boris Johnson appealing to all Derbyshire Conservatives to get out tomorrow.” He appears to be not wearing a seatbelt."

    Who was it who said that Boris wasn't safe in taxis?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    Selebian said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.

    Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.

    As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...

    Conservatives as disliked (maybe more so, but I think you're right about striking/apathetic voters who will largely come home) as 1997. Labour much less popular than 1997 though. Starmer has work to do for a majority, but he should be PM.
    Are the Tories as disliked as they were then? I don’t think so. People forget how universal the “time for a change” message was in ‘97 and how much we all despised them. The politically motivated might dislike them now, but they aren’t yet instinctively hated by the man on the Clapham omnibus.
    There was also the small matter of Tony Blair being probably the best retail politician that this country has ever seen.
    And a really, really good team - like them or loathe them, Alastair Campbell and Peter Mandelson were outstandingly good at addressing Labour's perceived weaknesses and exploiting the Tories' vulnerabilities. In addition, almost the entire Shadow Cabinet were focused, on message and very obviously preparing seriously for government. That is not the case for the current lot, in fact they are mostly invisible. Really only Rachel Reeves and Wes Streeting look like cabinet-ministers-in-waiting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,569
    Andy_JS said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, South Hams is no posher than Torbay, overall. Salcombe and Dartmouth are outliers.

    And Totnes and the Dart Valley are like Summerisle in the Wicker Man.

    I'd dispute that. I think South Hams is overall more upmarket than Torbay.
    Generally agree. But there's still plenty of poverty, and need for food banks. Salcombe is an outlier, having overtaken Sandbanks in the "How much????" housing stakes. Mostly Fulham fuckers who vote Labour. When there's a candidate. But when you deliver to a great proportion of the homes here, you see some places that are barely habitable. But homes they are.

    There are some tenement blocks in Paignton in the Torbay seat that are startlingly grim.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,189
    Anabobazina said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Malmesbury said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?
    Not that immediately comes to mind. But, of course, those experts in the BoE and OBR may well know better.

    In theory, if you had a burst of inflation from a specific source like gas it could go without wider damage but in practice the ripple effects on wages, goods produced with energy, transport etc spread out and assuming there is not going to be a reaction to that is, well, optimistic.
    That's why we should have done what the French did and largely protect consumers and businesses from the energy price spike.
    Might have been easier had we not sold off our utilities to foreign governments including, er, France...
    The French methodology for price support has been to load all the borrowing for it onto the state owned energy companies.

    This is obviously completely different to state borrowing and nothing like that at all. No, sir.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Mexicanpete said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Only 9% in the middle of a cost of living crisis

    I have to genuinely ask the question, without any irony:

    SKS fans, please explain?

    Why are PB Tories ignoring the LDs and Greens? It's like they have an agenda for spin.
    I am not a PB Tory as well you know. I am a PB floating voter with centrist/centre right sympathies. PB Tory ffs! You should have known better

    Labour has done well, but not as well as predicted. That was what I predicted. I predicted the overhyped prediction of the SKS fans, and I am enjoying pissing on their parade just a bit by crowing about my prediction
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    numbertwelve said:

    DavidL said:

    londonpubman said:

    HYUFD said (previous thread):
    House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72

    I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.

    I think Labour may well be looking for an additional 20 MPs from Scotland. Which might just be enough.
    If you asked me to call it, at the moment, I would suggest Labour are going to eke out a small majority with the help of some Scottish gains. 330 - 340 seats or so.

    I could quite easily see that being a tad higher, or indeed lower and getting us into HP territory. What I don't see in the tea leaves right now is Labour cruising for a 80+ seat majority or similar.
    That's pretty much where I am too. Labour in the 330-350 band with a fair bit of help from Scotland.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    CatMan said:

    Errr, have we done this?

    "Boris Johnson records election clip inside moving car without seatbelt on"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/05/boris-johnson-records-election-clip-inside-moving-car-without-seatbelt-on

    "Boris Johnson could add to his record of minor criminal misdemeanours after being filmed inside a moving car while apparently not wearing a seatbelt, an offence for which Rishi Sunak was fined in January.

    The 42-second clip, recorded for a local Tory group, sees Johnson in the back of a moving car, urging people in Derbyshire to vote in Thursday’s local elections.

    Johnson says to the camera: “Hi folks, this is Boris Johnson appealing to all Derbyshire Conservatives to get out tomorrow.” He appears to be not wearing a seatbelt."

    Hardly news, is it, as it's well known that Boris Johnson sincerely believes laws are for OTHER, lesser folk - NOT him.

    And hardly surprising, really, in wake of Rishi Sunak seat-belt infraction, nobody in BoJo's bozo squad is smart enough to NOT repeat that gaffe.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,483
    Malmesbury said:

    Sean_F said:

    Malmesbury said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    Has there been any case in recorded economic history where inflation packed up and went home all by itself vs massive and painful measures by the government?
    After WWII. Times were difficult for all sorts of reasons, but wartime inflation did fall away.
    The economic circumstances and policies adopted after the war would certainly count as "painful", I think.
    Indeed it was severe continuing austerity that brought down the Attlee government.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,943
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I’m confident on Starmer winning the next election based on results so far.

    I have this bridge you might be interested in
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,405
    Anabobazina said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Labour GAIN Dover

    "Stop the Boats" going down well then.
    Maybe the locals misinterpreted the message and assumed Fishy Rishi was going to block shipping into Dover?
    Nah, that's the French dock workers' job.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Only 9% in the middle of a cost of living crisis

    I have to genuinely ask the question, without any irony:

    SKS fans, please explain?

    You may have to wait for the answer. What this huge vehemently Tory hating LLG does in the General Election next year.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,569
    South Hams had a long running and toxic contract dispute regarding the recycling collections. The Tories got the blame.

    You'd never know the LibDems signed that contract from their election literature...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,330
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Only 9% in the middle of a cost of living crisis

    I have to genuinely ask the question, without any irony:

    SKS fans, please explain?

    Not a fan (though fairly settled in "oh well, he'll have to do, could be a lot worse"), but the cost of living crisis only really affects one of the two nations. The other one is doing fairly nicely, thank you.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,947
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I’m confident on Starmer winning the next election based on results so far.

    I have this bridge you might be interested in
    One of Boris's ?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    biggles said:

    Selebian said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.

    Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.

    As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...

    Conservatives as disliked (maybe more so, but I think you're right about striking/apathetic voters who will largely come home) as 1997. Labour much less popular than 1997 though. Starmer has work to do for a majority, but he should be PM.
    Are the Tories as disliked as they were then? I don’t think so. People forget how universal the “time for a change” message was in ‘97 and how much we all despised them. The politically motivated might dislike them now, but they aren’t yet instinctively hated by the man on the Clapham omnibus.
    Ah, I could well be wrong, was quite young in 97 to have a sense for general public mood.

    I was going on the PNS (and current opinion polls) mostly, but I was quite unclear with 'disliked'. 'Less popular' (or indeed spelling out that I was talking about polling and PNS) would have been clearer..
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,943
    Nigelb said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I’m confident on Starmer winning the next election based on results so far.

    I have this bridge you might be interested in
    One of Boris's ?
    Yes, with added unicors.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Nigelb said:

    NerysHughes said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    DavidL said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    GIN1138 said:

    To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.
    Really? After the total embarrassment that was late Boris and the unmitigated shambles that was Truss, to be only 9% behind? It could and should be a lot worse. I am not suggesting it is a good result. I am suggesting that it is as good as they could expect in very difficult circumstances.
    There is an article on the previous thread that suggests the 9% equates with the current 15% Labour lead in the polls. You are also ignoring a massive result for both LDs and Greens.
    William Hague used to get 40% in the Locals so 35% for Labour is maybe not so great.
    And the current 26% for the Tories ?
    Not great at all, but much better than I thought they would get, 6 weeks ago I thought they would be in the teens
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,673
    Lib Dems break over 200 gains.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    Selebian said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.

    Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.

    As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...

    Conservatives as disliked (maybe more so, but I think you're right about striking/apathetic voters who will largely come home) as 1997. Labour much less popular than 1997 though. Starmer has work to do for a majority, but he should be PM.
    Are the Tories as disliked as they were then? I don’t think so. People forget how universal the “time for a change” message was in ‘97 and how much we all despised them. The politically motivated might dislike them now, but they aren’t yet instinctively hated by the man on the Clapham omnibus.
    There was also the small matter of Tony Blair being probably the best retail politician that this country has ever seen.
    And a really, really good team - like them or loathe them, Alastair Campbell and Peter Mandelson were outstandingly good at addressing Labour's perceived weaknesses and exploiting the Tories' vulnerabilities. In addition, almost the entire Shadow Cabinet were focused, on message and very obviously preparing seriously for government. That is not the case for the current lot, in fact they are mostly invisible. Really only Rachel Reeves and Wes Streeting look like cabinet-ministers-in-waiting.
    The lack of genuine talent on both frontbenches is marked and unprecedented in my lifetime.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    Selebian said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Still a Conservative voter strike. Look at 2019 for how two elections can show a massive swing in sentiment.

    Anyway, my pavement pounding in Brixham helped get a Conservative council gain in Torbay. Possibly the only one in the elections? So I'm feeling my efforts really made a difference.

    As I reported, don't get carried away. There's no love for Labour or Starmer out there in voter land...

    Conservatives as disliked (maybe more so, but I think you're right about striking/apathetic voters who will largely come home) as 1997. Labour much less popular than 1997 though. Starmer has work to do for a majority, but he should be PM.
    Are the Tories as disliked as they were then? I don’t think so. People forget how universal the “time for a change” message was in ‘97 and how much we all despised them. The politically motivated might dislike them now, but they aren’t yet instinctively hated by the man on the Clapham omnibus.
    There was also the small matter of Tony Blair being probably the best retail politician that this country has ever seen.
    And a really, really good team - like them or loathe them, Alastair Campbell and Peter Mandelson were outstandingly good at addressing Labour's perceived weaknesses and exploiting the Tories' vulnerabilities. In addition, almost the entire Shadow Cabinet were focused, on message and very obviously preparing seriously for government. That is not the case for the current lot, in fact they are mostly invisible. Really only Rachel Reeves and Wes Streeting look like cabinet-ministers-in-waiting.
    And Reeves, understandably perhaps, all too often comes across as more than a bit daunted by the challenge in front of her. Brown, with his prawn cocktail offensive in the City, never had that problem.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,811
    Mexicanpete said:

    GIN1138 said:

    To me, that national projected share and swing looks rather on the low side for Labour I must say...

    DavidL said:

    I think that the Tories would probably take that at the moment.

    As I mentioned in the previous thread the economy is growing faster and inflation is proving stickier than predicted by the official models. More like what was suggested by me, in fact. Whether that will be enough to repair the damage over the next 18 months remains to be seen.

    I really don't see that at all. The Conservatives may still recover and win a GE, but on yesterday's votes cast it is an unmitigated disaster for the Cons. I suspect LD, Lab and Green are all reasonably comfortable with the result.
    Tactical voting will see them off. Yesterday was about the anti Tory vote. The vox pops on the news stations have been brutal. In a general election it will be much clearer where to direct our X
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I’m confident on Starmer winning the next election based on results so far.

    It would take something seismic now for Starmer not to be the next PM. What I think is notable is that the Labour + LibDem + Green number in both the NEV and PNS is actually outperforming the national polling.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,189
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I’m confident on Starmer winning the next election based on results so far.

    Labour will be the largest party. 95%+

    They will form the administration - I don't see much possibility that the other opposition parties would try and bring it down. Even if they tried to govern as a minority government (supply and confidence?) rather than formal coalition.

    As to a majority.... That is currently in play, I think. Could go either way.
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