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How will this map and table change tonight and tomorrow? – politicalbetting.com

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,576

    Report from the Bootle constituency, Victoria ward front line:

    1. Voted at 8.15pm. Only two people in the station with me. One just left as I arrived and one arrived as I left.
    2. Everyone seemed to remember their voter ID.
    3. No leaflets, no indications that there was an election on at all, except for all the signs about Voter Id required. Given this is a rock solid Labour ward, no surprise there. Seems no one from any party can be bothered when its going to be the usual landslide.

    Prediction for the ward - Labour HOLD.

    Sticking your neck out there?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    edited May 2023
    ping said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Well bloody hell.

    Just heard that my mum almost got turned away from the polling station today because all her official documents are in her original family name and the electoral register is in her married name. Eventually they allowed her to vote, after a phone call from the polling station staff to some kind of "supervisor".

    Just great.

    So now we’re in the situation where the “supervisor” gets to tilt elections according to their own biases.

    This was a terrible idea.
    It could have been made to work, and might even be worth doing, but not by the arrogant centiwits currently in charge.

    Perhaps when the Electoral Commission, whose recommendations are supposedly Holy Writ said "there are going to be problems making this work for May 2023", the government should have paid attention.

    And remember- significant chunks of the country still have to experience this for the first time next year.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,570

    Some bloke just hit me with his rhythm stick.

    I need a personal Ian Dury lawyer.

    Winning here.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,893

    Some bloke just hit me with his rhythm stick.

    I need a personal Ian Dury lawyer.

    and your coat...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    ping said:

    Westie said:

    The Times: "Almost half of countries where Charles is King support becoming a republic", including Australia, Canada, and Jamaica.

    With the coronation, he's banging nails into his own coffin. It's excruciating as well as hilarious. Nobody told him to have a coronation. He doesn't have to have one if he doesn't want one. He could easily go about in a business suit or scruff it up like Bill Gates. But no, he demands full-scale anointment with oil from Jerusalem, and a seat in front of the Cosmati pavement getting an archbishop put a diamond-studded hat on his head. The guy is f***ing gaga.

    I'll give it a year, tops.

    https://archive.is/IBghW

    Today’s best of specie podcast has Starkey on it. He’s vicious towards Charles.

    Difficult to see what he can do to turn things around. Handing straight over to Wills & Kate is probably the institutions best bet. The longer he clings on, the more damage he’s doing to the institution.
    "Difficult to see what he can do to turn things around."

    Exceed expectations, like Edward VII? (Also George VI.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,828
    Andy_JS said:

    Well bloody hell.

    Just heard that my mum almost got turned away from the polling station today because all her official documents are in her original family name and the electoral register is in her married name. Eventually they allowed her to vote, after a phone call from the polling station staff to some kind of "supervisor".

    Why is supervisor in quotes? Even presiding officers are not experts and so will speak to electoral professionals when uncertain.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    ping said:

    Westie said:

    The Times: "Almost half of countries where Charles is King support becoming a republic", including Australia, Canada, and Jamaica.

    With the coronation, he's banging nails into his own coffin. It's excruciating as well as hilarious. Nobody told him to have a coronation. He doesn't have to have one if he doesn't want one. He could easily go about in a business suit or scruff it up like Bill Gates. But no, he demands full-scale anointment with oil from Jerusalem, and a seat in front of the Cosmati pavement getting an archbishop put a diamond-studded hat on his head. The guy is f***ing gaga.

    I'll give it a year, tops.

    https://archive.is/IBghW

    Today’s best of specie podcast has Starkey on it. He’s vicious towards Charles.

    Difficult to see what he can do to turn things around. Handing straight over to Wills & Kate is probably the institutions best bet. The longer he clings on, the more damage he’s doing to the institution.
    Starkey is vicious towards everyone, though, in an increasingly dismal self-parody.

    The Prime Minister, for example:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/david-starkey-condemned-for-vile-and-racist-remarks-about-rishi-sunak/ar-AA1aKpni
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,576
    Carnyx said:

    Westie said:

    As a teeny bit of a peace offering to my monarchist chums: HMS Diamond spotted today in the Thames at Greenwich!






    What? Republicans think we should abolish the armed forces too?

    Interesting.
    Where did I say that??






    I almost forgot falling real incomes, widespread expectations of further falls, and foodbanks and stuff, when I saw those luscious photographs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs
    Not as elegant as its predecessors, the Daring class of the 1950s, though.

    Edith: should have said, British and Australian, of course. There remains one in Sydney, at the maritime museum.

    https://www.iwm.org.uk/collections/item/object/205163139
    Who's Edith?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,828
    Anyone who didn't expect some Commonwealth Realms to go republican has not been paying attention to the several who have openly had plans to do so for years going on decades in some cases. The only question is around how many and if any of the really big ones who were not expected go republican.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,213

    Went to vote in our ward in Bracknell Forest a few hours ago. Seemed really quiet, especially as there is one polling place for the whole ward.

    My best guess is that Lab will make inroads in Bracknell Town, while Cons hold up better in the rest of the borough (with LDs best shot in Sandhurst)

    What time? Traditionally, sluggish turnout in the day is bad for the Tories, low turnout first thing and after work for others (due to pensioner vote mainly).
    About 5:30-6

    My partner had a row with the polling officials as they wanted to know his name and address even though it was on the polling card and driving license!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Carnyx said:

    Westie said:

    As a teeny bit of a peace offering to my monarchist chums: HMS Diamond spotted today in the Thames at Greenwich!






    What? Republicans think we should abolish the armed forces too?

    Interesting.
    Where did I say that??






    I almost forgot falling real incomes, widespread expectations of further falls, and foodbanks and stuff, when I saw those luscious photographs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs
    Not as elegant as its predecessors, the Daring class of the 1950s, though.

    Edith: should have said, British and Australian, of course. There remains one in Sydney, at the maritime museum.

    https://www.iwm.org.uk/collections/item/object/205163139
    Who's Edith?
    Edit when I haven't had some port with my cheese and biscuits!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297

    ping said:

    Westie said:

    The Times: "Almost half of countries where Charles is King support becoming a republic", including Australia, Canada, and Jamaica.

    With the coronation, he's banging nails into his own coffin. It's excruciating as well as hilarious. Nobody told him to have a coronation. He doesn't have to have one if he doesn't want one. He could easily go about in a business suit or scruff it up like Bill Gates. But no, he demands full-scale anointment with oil from Jerusalem, and a seat in front of the Cosmati pavement getting an archbishop put a diamond-studded hat on his head. The guy is f***ing gaga.

    I'll give it a year, tops.

    https://archive.is/IBghW

    Today’s best of specie podcast has Starkey on it. He’s vicious towards Charles.

    Difficult to see what he can do to turn things around. Handing straight over to Wills & Kate is probably the institutions best bet. The longer he clings on, the more damage he’s doing to the institution.
    Starkey is vicious towards everyone, though, in an increasingly dismal self-parody.

    The Prime Minister, for example:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/david-starkey-condemned-for-vile-and-racist-remarks-about-rishi-sunak/ar-AA1aKpni
    What a knob end.

    David Starkey, not you.

    I am so immersed in the culture of this country that I want the French to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    ping said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Well bloody hell.

    Just heard that my mum almost got turned away from the polling station today because all her official documents are in her original family name and the electoral register is in her married name. Eventually they allowed her to vote, after a phone call from the polling station staff to some kind of "supervisor".

    Just great.

    So now we’re in the situation where the “supervisor” gets to tilt elections according to their own biases.

    This was a terrible idea.
    It could have been made to work, and might even be worth doing, but not by the arrogant centiwits currently in charge.

    Perhaps when the Electoral Commission, whose recommendations are supposedly Holy Writ said "there are going to be problems making this work for May 2023", the government should have paid attention.

    And remember- significant chunks of the country still have to experience this for the first time next year.
    The bits where it will be a problem. There will be real trouble in London when this hits, believe me.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ....

    Some bloke just hit me with his rhythm stick.

    I need a personal Ian Dury lawyer.

    Only a Blockhead would repeat a joke like that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Sean_F said:

    We also have all-out elections in Northern Ireland.

    And it looks like the face-eating leopards are in for a very good night.

    Sinn Fein should win 28-30%, up from 24% in 2019. The DUP and TUV should win 28-32%, up from 27%.

    It looks like SDLP will do terribly, down from 13% to 7-8%.

    How is this all likely to affect seat counts?
    The DUP will be likely back up to 130 or so, out of 460. TUV will only win about 12, due to candidate shortage, and their candidates mostly falling short of a quota. Sinn Fein will be close to 130. UUP down to about 65, SDLP well down to 40 or so. Alliance on about 70.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238

    a/ Poor formatting

    2/ Split infinitives

    Oh, well played.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Report from the Bootle constituency, Victoria ward front line:

    1. Voted at 8.15pm. Only two people in the station with me. One just left as I arrived and one arrived as I left.
    2. Everyone seemed to remember their voter ID.
    3. No leaflets, no indications that there was an election on at all, except for all the signs about Voter Id required. Given this is a rock solid Labour ward, no surprise there. Seems no one from any party can be bothered when its going to be the usual landslide.

    Prediction for the ward - Labour HOLD.

    If you are wrong and Bootle turns blue, expect a General Election on the last Thursday in June.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297

    a/ Poor formatting

    2/ Split infinitives

    Oh, well played.
    My staff do something similar to me occasionally.

    It usually follows after I have sent an email/report which uses French, German, and Latin, and a few classical historical reference.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069

    ping said:

    Westie said:

    The Times: "Almost half of countries where Charles is King support becoming a republic", including Australia, Canada, and Jamaica.

    With the coronation, he's banging nails into his own coffin. It's excruciating as well as hilarious. Nobody told him to have a coronation. He doesn't have to have one if he doesn't want one. He could easily go about in a business suit or scruff it up like Bill Gates. But no, he demands full-scale anointment with oil from Jerusalem, and a seat in front of the Cosmati pavement getting an archbishop put a diamond-studded hat on his head. The guy is f***ing gaga.

    I'll give it a year, tops.

    https://archive.is/IBghW

    Today’s best of specie podcast has Starkey on it. He’s vicious towards Charles.

    Difficult to see what he can do to turn things around. Handing straight over to Wills & Kate is probably the institutions best bet. The longer he clings on, the more damage he’s doing to the institution.
    Starkey is vicious towards everyone, though, in an increasingly dismal self-parody.

    The Prime Minister, for example:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/david-starkey-condemned-for-vile-and-racist-remarks-about-rishi-sunak/ar-AA1aKpni
    What a knob end.

    David Starkey, not you.

    I am so immersed in the culture of this country that I want the French to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
    The trouble with inventing a persona (Britain's Rudest Man in DS's case) is that eventually it becomes the real you.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    edited May 2023
    Everywhere in France has to accept cash as far as I know. Which could be useful sometimes.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    Andy_JS said:

    Everywhere in France has to accept cash as far as I know. Which could be useful sometimes.

    For those struggling with this in the UK, I am always happy to accept any unwanted cash.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    a/ Poor formatting

    2/ Split infinitives

    Oh, well played.
    My staff do something similar to me occasionally.

    It usually follows after I have sent an email/report which uses French, German, and Latin, and a few classical historical reference.
    That would be so annoyingly Johnsonian. Do you write his speeches?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    a/ Poor formatting

    2/ Split infinitives

    Oh, well played.
    My staff do something similar to me occasionally.

    It usually follows after I have sent an email/report which uses French, German, and Latin, and a few classical historical reference.
    That would be so annoyingly Johnsonian. Do you write his speeches?
    I was sitting wondering what speeches had to do with Samuel Johnson.

    How times change so quickly in politics.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    Report from the Bootle constituency, Victoria ward front line:

    1. Voted at 8.15pm. Only two people in the station with me. One just left as I arrived and one arrived as I left.
    2. Everyone seemed to remember their voter ID.
    3. No leaflets, no indications that there was an election on at all, except for all the signs about Voter Id required. Given this is a rock solid Labour ward, no surprise there. Seems no one from any party can be bothered when its going to be the usual landslide.

    Prediction for the ward - Labour HOLD.

    If you are wrong and Bootle turns blue, expect a General Election on the last Thursday in June.
    I am sure there is someone who posts on here occasionally whose line is that the results of the last election are no guide to the result of the next. Maybe Bootle is about to prove this correct by voting Tory, (as South Holland simultaneously all vote for the SWP.)

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    As a teeny bit of a peace offering to my monarchist chums: HMS Diamond spotted today in the Thames at Greenwich!






    What? Republicans think we should abolish the armed forces too?

    Interesting.
    Where did I say that??






    I once said why not call the new warship Thunderchild. Reply was, yes, use Native American names.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Have to say that if City had had the chances that either Man U or Brighton have had in this game they would have at least 3. And that is the difference between the Champions and the rest.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    a/ Poor formatting

    2/ Split infinitives

    Oh, well played.
    My staff do something similar to me occasionally.

    It usually follows after I have sent an email/report which uses French, German, and Latin, and a few classical historical reference.
    Tough being the butt of their jokes

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297

    a/ Poor formatting

    2/ Split infinitives

    Oh, well played.
    My staff do something similar to me occasionally.

    It usually follows after I have sent an email/report which uses French, German, and Latin, and a few classical historical reference.
    That would be so annoyingly Johnsonian. Do you write his speeches?
    He wishes.

    I recently said in an email, I feel like the Emperor Augustus and like him, it is time to get Agrippa.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    The best thing about election night is the way every party always claims to have done slightly better than expected, (with a few exceptions like the Tories in 1997).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Carnyx said:

    a/ Poor formatting

    2/ Split infinitives

    Oh, well played.
    My staff do something similar to me occasionally.

    It usually follows after I have sent an email/report which uses French, German, and Latin, and a few classical historical reference.
    That would be so annoyingly Johnsonian. Do you write his speeches?
    I was sitting wondering what speeches had to do with Samuel Johnson.

    How times change so quickly in politics.
    Not the dictionary writer, I am referring to the biggest Johnson ever to walk amongst us
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    edit
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134

    Report from the Bootle constituency, Victoria ward front line:

    1. Voted at 8.15pm. Only two people in the station with me. One just left as I arrived and one arrived as I left.
    2. Everyone seemed to remember their voter ID.
    3. No leaflets, no indications that there was an election on at all, except for all the signs about Voter Id required. Given this is a rock solid Labour ward, no surprise there. Seems no one from any party can be bothered when its going to be the usual landslide.

    Prediction for the ward - Labour HOLD.

    If you are wrong and Bootle turns blue, expect a General Election on the last Thursday in June.
    Who says Bootle never votes Tory?

    1931:
    Con 62%
    Lab 38%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootle_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1930s
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,873

    Report from the Bootle constituency, Victoria ward front line:

    1. Voted at 8.15pm. Only two people in the station with me. One just left as I arrived and one arrived as I left.
    2. Everyone seemed to remember their voter ID.
    3. No leaflets, no indications that there was an election on at all, except for all the signs about Voter Id required. Given this is a rock solid Labour ward, no surprise there. Seems no one from any party can be bothered when its going to be the usual landslide.

    Prediction for the ward - Labour HOLD.

    If you are wrong and Bootle turns blue, expect a General Election on the last Thursday in June.
    You know, there is that episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation. Parallels. Where Worf shifts from reality to reality. The one with Riker in command, the one where the Borg has won, the one with Troi and Worf married.

    If ever there was an argument against the many worlds theory of existence, that all possible outcomes play out somewhere in the multiverse, then the existence of Bootle surely proves it wrong.

    Because I cannot believe that there is a universe out there that reports.....

    CON Gain Bootle.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    From another PB.

    I'm actually warming to Raab after reading this.

    One mystery that was never really cleared up in the Dominic Raab bullying report was what exactly those infamous "high standards" of his entailed. What on earth could have been so bad about the reports his staff submitted that caused him to blow up?

    The things that would reliably boil Raab's piss:

    a/ Poor formatting

    2/ Split infinitives



    Also

    It was sport for a while in Raab's office to sneakily add extra a's into his surname on official documents.

    The correct way to deal with the name mis-spelling thing would be

    “Bad news I’m afraid. I mis-spelled *your* name on the department list for honours. So your K went to a chap in the mail room. Nothing can be done - too late. Good joke though, what?”
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    Andy_JS said:

    Report from the Bootle constituency, Victoria ward front line:

    1. Voted at 8.15pm. Only two people in the station with me. One just left as I arrived and one arrived as I left.
    2. Everyone seemed to remember their voter ID.
    3. No leaflets, no indications that there was an election on at all, except for all the signs about Voter Id required. Given this is a rock solid Labour ward, no surprise there. Seems no one from any party can be bothered when its going to be the usual landslide.

    Prediction for the ward - Labour HOLD.

    If you are wrong and Bootle turns blue, expect a General Election on the last Thursday in June.
    Who says Bootle never votes Tory?

    1931:
    Con 62%
    Lab 38%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootle_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1930s
    Is that the election where Labour ended up with 52 seats?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599

    ping said:

    Westie said:

    The Times: "Almost half of countries where Charles is King support becoming a republic", including Australia, Canada, and Jamaica.

    With the coronation, he's banging nails into his own coffin. It's excruciating as well as hilarious. Nobody told him to have a coronation. He doesn't have to have one if he doesn't want one. He could easily go about in a business suit or scruff it up like Bill Gates. But no, he demands full-scale anointment with oil from Jerusalem, and a seat in front of the Cosmati pavement getting an archbishop put a diamond-studded hat on his head. The guy is f***ing gaga.

    I'll give it a year, tops.

    https://archive.is/IBghW

    Today’s best of specie podcast has Starkey on it. He’s vicious towards Charles.

    Difficult to see what he can do to turn things around. Handing straight over to Wills & Kate is probably the institutions best bet. The longer he clings on, the more damage he’s doing to the institution.
    Starkey is vicious towards everyone, though, in an increasingly dismal self-parody.

    The Prime Minister, for example:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/david-starkey-condemned-for-vile-and-racist-remarks-about-rishi-sunak/ar-AA1aKpni
    What a knob end.

    David Starkey, not you.

    I am so immersed in the culture of this country that I want the French to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
    The trouble with inventing a persona (Britain's Rudest Man in DS's case) is that eventually it becomes the real you.
    Sounds terrible......off to work on my billionaire adonis persona......
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423
    I feel really left out today. Hope we get the Ferrier by-election.
  • Been involved with our local Independents campaign today. Quietest campaign I can remember. Polling Station turnout is down. Little evidence at polling station of voter ID being a factor, but during knocking up it was clear that voters weren't bothering to turn up without ID and several disenfranchised as a result.

    Postal vote returns in Conservative wards slightly down on previous years. In wards contested between Labour and Independents turnout slightly up.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    Have we already noted another gem from Matt?

    https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1654167284682743813
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    stodge said:

    Not sure if this has been picked up but the latest Techne poll has a 15-point Labour lead.

    The numbers - Labour 44%, Conservative 29% (-1), Liberal Democrat 11% (+2), Reform 6%, Green 5%, SNP 3%..

    Polls herding around a 15-18 point Labour advantage but a series with the Conservatives sub 30% and the Liberal Democrats at or above 10%.

    Any good polling news for Labour Categorically offset by Labours falls in the Survation and Omnisis this last week. Labours lead fell by three in the Omnisis.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,502
    Curiously low-key Waverley election - Labour (who are the third party here) were the only ones doing any knocking-up in my ward, and by 845 I was the only teller on the polling station as all the others said it was getting a bit cold. Voters a mixture -many quite enthused, but some flat refusals to vote too - overall turnout seemed decent, though. On balance I expect to win but not forseeing an earthquake.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,873
    Andy_JS said:

    Report from the Bootle constituency, Victoria ward front line:

    1. Voted at 8.15pm. Only two people in the station with me. One just left as I arrived and one arrived as I left.
    2. Everyone seemed to remember their voter ID.
    3. No leaflets, no indications that there was an election on at all, except for all the signs about Voter Id required. Given this is a rock solid Labour ward, no surprise there. Seems no one from any party can be bothered when its going to be the usual landslide.

    Prediction for the ward - Labour HOLD.

    If you are wrong and Bootle turns blue, expect a General Election on the last Thursday in June.
    Who says Bootle never votes Tory?

    1931:
    Con 62%
    Lab 38%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootle_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1930s
    A very long time ago that. It's been trending Labour since the end of World War II.
    I'm pretty sure that the fight for the seat is always tough because its basically a job for the rest of your life.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    Curiously low-key Waverley election - Labour (who are the third party here) were the only ones doing any knocking-up in my ward, and by 845 I was the only teller on the polling station as all the others said it was getting a bit cold. Voters a mixture -many quite enthused, but some flat refusals to vote too - overall turnout seemed decent, though. On balance I expect to win but not forseeing an earthquake.

    "some flat refusals to vote" - eh? They turn up at the Polling Station and then refuse to vote?

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,655
    Apologies if already posted but is there a timetable for when results are expected?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    algarkirk said:


    Have we already noted another gem from Matt?

    https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1654167284682743813

    Matt rules OK
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    edited May 2023
    Apparently the AfD in Bremen have been disqualified, for putting forward two separate lists of candidates.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Andy_JS said:

    Report from the Bootle constituency, Victoria ward front line:

    1. Voted at 8.15pm. Only two people in the station with me. One just left as I arrived and one arrived as I left.
    2. Everyone seemed to remember their voter ID.
    3. No leaflets, no indications that there was an election on at all, except for all the signs about Voter Id required. Given this is a rock solid Labour ward, no surprise there. Seems no one from any party can be bothered when its going to be the usual landslide.

    Prediction for the ward - Labour HOLD.

    If you are wrong and Bootle turns blue, expect a General Election on the last Thursday in June.
    Who says Bootle never votes Tory?

    1931:
    Con 62%
    Lab 38%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootle_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1930s
    A very long time ago that. It's been trending Labour since the end of World War II.
    I'm pretty sure that the fight for the seat is always tough because its basically a job for the rest of your life.
    The Orange vote delivered Conservative victories in 1924, 1931, and 1935, and kept the seat competitive up till 1959.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    MikeL said:

    Apologies if already posted but is there a timetable for when results are expected?

    https://election.pressassociation.com/locals/provisional-may-election-declaration-times-in-chronological-order/

    TLDR: Unless the gossip is really good, or you are personally involved, not much is going to be revealed until tomorrow.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    geoffw said:

    Curiously low-key Waverley election - Labour (who are the third party here) were the only ones doing any knocking-up in my ward, and by 845 I was the only teller on the polling station as all the others said it was getting a bit cold. Voters a mixture -many quite enthused, but some flat refusals to vote too - overall turnout seemed decent, though. On balance I expect to win but not forseeing an earthquake.

    "some flat refusals to vote" - eh? They turn up at the Polling Station and then refuse to vote?

    I took it to be Nick Palmer “knocking up”

    [insert PB King of Swing joke here]
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,873
    Sean_F said:

    We also have all-out elections in Northern Ireland.

    And it looks like the face-eating leopards are in for a very good night.

    Sinn Fein should win 28-30%, up from 24% in 2019. The DUP and TUV should win 28-32%, up from 27%.

    It looks like SDLP will do terribly, down from 13% to 7-8%.

    Identity politics (see also the US) will do that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,893
    MikeL said:

    Apologies if already posted but is there a timetable for when results are expected?

    The Times have one behind the paywall

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/when-local-elections-2023-results-timings-polls-uk-xd6svtb5w

    Most of the action happens later tomorrow
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    geoffw said:

    Curiously low-key Waverley election - Labour (who are the third party here) were the only ones doing any knocking-up in my ward, and by 845 I was the only teller on the polling station as all the others said it was getting a bit cold. Voters a mixture -many quite enthused, but some flat refusals to vote too - overall turnout seemed decent, though. On balance I expect to win but not forseeing an earthquake.

    "some flat refusals to vote" - eh? They turn up at the Polling Station and then refuse to vote?

    I took it to be Nick Palmer “knocking up”

    [insert PB King of Swing joke here]
    Two at a time I've heard.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134

    Curiously low-key Waverley election - Labour (who are the third party here) were the only ones doing any knocking-up in my ward, and by 845 I was the only teller on the polling station as all the others said it was getting a bit cold. Voters a mixture -many quite enthused, but some flat refusals to vote too - overall turnout seemed decent, though. On balance I expect to win but not forseeing an earthquake.

    Bit cold on the warmest day of the year? Lol.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    Curiously low-key Waverley election - Labour (who are the third party here) were the only ones doing any knocking-up in my ward, and by 845 I was the only teller on the polling station as all the others said it was getting a bit cold. Voters a mixture -many quite enthused, but some flat refusals to vote too - overall turnout seemed decent, though. On balance I expect to win but not forseeing an earthquake.

    "some flat refusals to vote" - eh? They turn up at the Polling Station and then refuse to vote?

    I took it to be Nick Palmer “knocking up”

    [insert PB King of Swing joke here]
    Two at a time I've heard.
    That’s the sort of knocking up you need from your activists and candidates.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    We also have all-out elections in Northern Ireland.

    And it looks like the face-eating leopards are in for a very good night.

    Sinn Fein should win 28-30%, up from 24% in 2019. The DUP and TUV should win 28-32%, up from 27%.

    It looks like SDLP will do terribly, down from 13% to 7-8%.

    Identity politics (see also the US) will do that.
    In case of Northern Ireland, BoJo had fun pouring gasoline onto the coals, with predictable results.

    Not that he gives a blind fiddler's final farewell fuck, of course.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently the AfD in Bremen have been disqualified, for putting forward two separate lists of candidates.

    Bremen votes on May 14th - the beneficiaries of the AfD disqualification look to be the BIW (Citizens in Rage) who will get into the Burgerschaft with 7-9% of the vote likely outpolling the FDP.

    The latest polls show the SPD narrowly ahead of the CDU by between 3-6 points. The Greens are down but Linke are up to around 10%. In 2019, the CDU outpolled the SPD 27-25 but it looks as though the SPD will top the poll and the present SPD/Green/Linke coalition will keep a small overall majority.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    Sean_F said:

    We also have all-out elections in Northern Ireland.

    And it looks like the face-eating leopards are in for a very good night.

    Sinn Fein should win 28-30%, up from 24% in 2019. The DUP and TUV should win 28-32%, up from 27%.

    It looks like SDLP will do terribly, down from 13% to 7-8%.

    They are on the 18th aren't they. Traditionally slow counters and didn't want to overlap the Coronation.

    Good opportunity for a GreenMachine (or similar active poster) thread header?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    Curiously low-key Waverley election - Labour (who are the third party here) were the only ones doing any knocking-up in my ward, and by 845 I was the only teller on the polling station as all the others said it was getting a bit cold. Voters a mixture -many quite enthused, but some flat refusals to vote too - overall turnout seemed decent, though. On balance I expect to win but not forseeing an earthquake.

    "some flat refusals to vote" - eh? They turn up at the Polling Station and then refuse to vote?

    I took it to be Nick Palmer “knocking up”

    [insert PB King of Swing joke here]
    Two at a time I've heard.
    And that's why we need voter ID.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,655
    Thanks all for your replies!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800

    stodge said:

    Not sure if this has been picked up but the latest Techne poll has a 15-point Labour lead.

    The numbers - Labour 44%, Conservative 29% (-1), Liberal Democrat 11% (+2), Reform 6%, Green 5%, SNP 3%..

    Polls herding around a 15-18 point Labour advantage but a series with the Conservatives sub 30% and the Liberal Democrats at or above 10%.

    Any good polling news for Labour Categorically offset by Labours falls in the Survation and Omnisis this last week. Labours lead fell by three in the Omnisis.
    That 20-point lead Omnisis looks an outlier (the Labour rating of 47% a bit frothy). The week's polls have herded towards a 15-18 point Labour lead with Labour around 45%, the Conservatives just below 30% and the Liberal Democrats just above 10%.

    As others have said, it's likely any local election coverage will quickly be drowned out by Saturday's events but tomorrow might be a difficult day for the Conservatives.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    Westie said:

    The Times: "Almost half of countries where Charles is King support becoming a republic", including Australia, Canada, and Jamaica.

    With the coronation, he's banging nails into his own coffin. It's excruciating as well as hilarious. Nobody told him to have a coronation. He doesn't have to have one if he doesn't want one. He could easily go about in a business suit or scruff it up like Bill Gates. But no, he demands full-scale anointment with oil from Jerusalem. He demands a seat in front of the Cosmati pavement getting an archbishop put a diamond-studded hat on his head. He thinks people care what he thinks about religion too. Every religion. Because they all want a king. Right. Right? The guy is f***ing gaga.

    I'll give it a year, tops.

    I bet the insiders are already discussing how to save the monarchy from him.

    https://archive.is/IBghW

    As far as Australia is concerned it appears this is old news as Sky are pushing a poll this evening that shows that support for a Republic has dropped and there is now 60% support for contiuing with the Monarchy
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,982
    I voted with 28 minutes to go. Mainly to annoy @Heathener.

    I was the only person in there. The polling staff looked bored. And there weren't many names crossed off the list at all.

    That said, I do live in a village in Hampshire.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    Carnyx said:

    Westie said:

    As a teeny bit of a peace offering to my monarchist chums: HMS Diamond spotted today in the Thames at Greenwich!






    What? Republicans think we should abolish the armed forces too?

    Interesting.
    Where did I say that??






    I almost forgot falling real incomes, widespread expectations of further falls, and foodbanks and stuff, when I saw those luscious photographs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs
    Not as elegant as its predecessors, the Daring class of the 1950s, though.

    Edith: should have said, British and Australian, of course. There remains one in Sydney, at the maritime museum.

    https://www.iwm.org.uk/collections/item/object/205163139
    Rather more capable, when it doesn’t break down.
    About a billion quid there.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently the AfD in Bremen have been disqualified, for putting forward two separate lists of candidates.

    Bremen votes on May 14th - the beneficiaries of the AfD disqualification look to be the BIW (Citizens in Rage) who will get into the Burgerschaft with 7-9% of the vote likely outpolling the FDP.

    The latest polls show the SPD narrowly ahead of the CDU by between 3-6 points. The Greens are down but Linke are up to around 10%. In 2019, the CDU outpolled the SPD 27-25 but it looks as though the SPD will top the poll and the present SPD/Green/Linke coalition will keep a small overall majority.
    Re: AdF's (self) disqualification

    https://www.butenunbinnen.de/nachrichten/afd-bremen-zulassung-wahl-bremerhaven-100.html

    And re: the alternative for Bremen head-bangers:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens_in_Rage

    Must say that "Citizens in Rage" is eye-catching, though personally like Bürger in Wut (rhymes with "nut"?)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    Only a few seconds to go until the exit poll.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,830
    I’ve now walked 289.2 miles (24.1 per day) and 646k steps (53,834 per day) in twelve days
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    Sky News leading on the fact that Charles hasn't yet apologised for the slave trade.
  • I’ve now walked 289.2 miles (24.1 per day) and 646k steps (53,834 per day) in twelve days

    It's okay, I suppose. Although personally I would walk 500 miles, and I would walk 500 more.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,463
    Peter Hitchens and Billy Bragg on QT tonight. Might actually be worth watching for a change!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    Good luck to any PBers standing for election today!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    So it seems the story of these local elections will be extremely low turnout.

    That enables quite a few narratives, so the journalists will have a field day.

    General headline of a voter strike because of the ID requirements. There seems to be mounting anecdotal evidence of people not bothering to go and vote because they don’t have the ID, rather than hordes being turned away at polling stations.

    For the Tory press, the low turnout will mean that a. Nothing can be read into the poor conservative results as they clearly don’t represent a large portion of the electorate, and b. the public remain unenthused about Labour

    For Labour, former Tories abstaining en masse due to disgust with the government.

    For Lib Dems and Greens, no real angle on turnout so they’ll focus on the results (if good).
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Not sure if this has been picked up but the latest Techne poll has a 15-point Labour lead.

    The numbers - Labour 44%, Conservative 29% (-1), Liberal Democrat 11% (+2), Reform 6%, Green 5%, SNP 3%..

    Polls herding around a 15-18 point Labour advantage but a series with the Conservatives sub 30% and the Liberal Democrats at or above 10%.

    Any good polling news for Labour Categorically offset by Labours falls in the Survation and Omnisis this last week. Labours lead fell by three in the Omnisis.
    That 20-point lead Omnisis looks an outlier (the Labour rating of 47% a bit frothy). The week's polls have herded towards a 15-18 point Labour lead with Labour around 45%, the Conservatives just below 30% and the Liberal Democrats just above 10%.

    As others have said, it's likely any local election coverage will quickly be drowned out by Saturday's events but tomorrow might be a difficult day for the Conservatives.
    Labour on 47 now too frothy to take seriously? It’s opinion polling not a cappuccino.

    I disagree about the drowning out. Certainly Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday it’s nothing but the Cozza party. You won’t hear from me till Tuesday. But that doesn’t mean a line is drawn on the result like it never happened and repercussions won’t happen. The Tory spring revival will be over, Sunak looking like a loser, and Starmer a winner, boost for Lib Dem polling, Sunak v Boris comparisons in terms of appeal to voters, these things could be the political narrative for May.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    I voted with 28 minutes to go. Mainly to annoy @Heathener.

    I was the only person in there. The polling staff looked bored. And there weren't many names crossed off the list at all.

    That said, I do live in a village in Hampshire.

    The Meon Streets of Hampshire?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,583

    I voted with 28 minutes to go. Mainly to annoy @Heathener.

    I was the only person in there. The polling staff looked bored. And there weren't many names crossed off the list at all.

    That said, I do live in a village in Hampshire.

    Personally, little makes me want to vote Tory more than splenetic diatribes about how horrible Tories are.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News leading on the fact that Charles hasn't yet apologised for the slave trade.

    By 55% to 22%, our voters don’t wish him to.

    And, that’s why various Caribbean kleptocracies will become Republics. Charles can’t both serve the British people and Caribbean kleptocrats simultaneously.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,982
    Westie said:

    The Times: "Almost half of countries where Charles is King support becoming a republic", including Australia, Canada, and Jamaica.

    With the coronation, he's banging nails into his own coffin. It's excruciating as well as hilarious. Nobody told him to have a coronation. He doesn't have to have one if he doesn't want one. He could easily go about in a business suit or scruff it up like Bill Gates. But no, he demands full-scale anointment with oil from Jerusalem. He demands a seat in front of the Cosmati pavement getting an archbishop put a diamond-studded hat on his head. He thinks people care what he thinks about religion too. Every religion. Because they all want a king. Right. Right? The guy is f***ing gaga.

    I'll give it a year, tops.

    I bet the insiders are already discussing how to save the monarchy from him.

    https://archive.is/IBghW

    Do you habitually howl at the moon?

    The polling doesn't show what you think it does. Australia looks like it'd go for monarchy on that polling, and Canada has a huge "don't know" contingent that could swing it too. I am sceptical of this closer links to the US and China stuff. Jamaica does have a majority but not a massive one.

    There are probably only three Commonwealth realms I'd be seriously worried about on that list. The most important thing is that we are seen to care and invest and help in such places, which I fully support.

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2023/05/uncharted-realms-the-future-of-the-monarchy-in-the-uk-and-around-the-world/#more-17010
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,946
    edited May 2023
    I see a bunch of American white supremacists have been found guilty of seditious conspiracy:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65307770

    Of course the country was founded as a seditious conspiracy by a bunch of white supremacists, but for some reason that doesn't seem to be allowed as a defence in court there.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    edited May 2023
    Have a good night, nighthawks, and keep those GE books sweet as the overnighters come in.

    I may rejoin for a little while if a dot of insomnia hits

    I voted with 28 minutes to go. Mainly to annoy @Heathener.

    I was the only person in there. The polling staff looked bored. And there weren't many names crossed off the list at all.

    That said, I do live in a village in Hampshire.

    The Meon Streets of Hampshire?
    Watch out for that Hook entering stage left.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,633

    'Britain Elects' live YouTube feed FYI:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fnzVfXmpOd0
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    Sean_F said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News leading on the fact that Charles hasn't yet apologised for the slave trade.

    By 55% to 22%, our voters don’t wish him to.

    And, that’s why various Caribbean kleptocracies will become Republics. Charles can’t both serve the British people and Caribbean kleptocrats simultaneously.
    Given Rishi's and Charles's personal fortunes ,are we not also a kleptocracy?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Well, we'll discover tomorrow whether voters round here are prepared to vote for a candidate who is over the hill.


    The hill in question being Ilkley Moor, and our candidate lives on the other side of it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Cookie said:

    I voted with 28 minutes to go. Mainly to annoy @Heathener.

    I was the only person in there. The polling staff looked bored. And there weren't many names crossed off the list at all.

    That said, I do live in a village in Hampshire.

    Personally, little makes me want to vote Tory more than splenetic diatribes about how horrible Tories are.
    Same here. Just as I want to get rid of the buggers, then I read some guff about how evil anyone is who voted for Brexit or against Corbyn.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    Cookie said:

    I voted with 28 minutes to go. Mainly to annoy @Heathener.

    I was the only person in there. The polling staff looked bored. And there weren't many names crossed off the list at all.

    That said, I do live in a village in Hampshire.

    Personally, little makes me want to vote Tory more than splenetic diatribes about how horrible Tories are.
    That's the way the @Cookie crumbles :lol:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    edited May 2023
    Fishing said:

    I see a bunch of American white supremacists have been found guilty of seditious conspiracy:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65307770

    Of course the whole country was a seditious conspiracy by a bunch of white supremacists, but for some reason that doesn't seem to be allowed as a defence in court there.

    Don't forget the religious nutjobs either. That's a running theme too.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    I'm hearing from credible sources the next UK net migration figures will be much higher than the (record) 504,000 for 2022 --potentially as high as 700,000-800,000. If true, this will not only continue to make a mockery of "Take Back Control" but reveal the extent to which both Left and Right remain firmly committed --amid a national housing and NHS crisis-- to a political economy that is now completely dependent on cheap labour via mass immigration."

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1654148685570220033
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,873
    As an aside, the current voter ID laws can't prevent all personation.

    The electoral roll does not contain dates of birth (except for those below 18). That means that if the name on the ID matches the name on the electoral roll, then one can vote.

    In certain communities, there are surprisingly few unique First Name - Last Name combinations. How many Muhammed Khan's will there be in the UK? And if you go to - say - Tower Hamlets, you might find tens (or even hundreds) of them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    I'm hearing from credible sources the next UK net migration figures will be much higher than the (record) 504,000 for 2022 --potentially as high as 700,000-800,000. If true, this will not only continue to make a mockery of "Take Back Control" but reveal the extent to which both Left and Right remain firmly committed --amid a national housing and NHS crisis-- to a political economy that is now completely dependent on cheap labour via mass immigration."

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1654148685570220033

    Didn't we do this a few days ago? Mr Goodwin should pay more attention to PB.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    Well, we'll discover tomorrow whether voters round here are prepared to vote for a candidate who is over the hill.


    The hill in question being Ilkley Moor, and our candidate lives on the other side of it.

    On Ilkla Moor baht twat
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, the current voter ID laws can't prevent all personation.

    The electoral roll does not contain dates of birth (except for those below 18). That means that if the name on the ID matches the name on the electoral roll, then one can vote.

    In certain communities, there are surprisingly few unique First Name - Last Name combinations. How many Muhammed Khan's will there be in the UK? And if you go to - say - Tower Hamlets, you might find tens (or even hundreds) of them.

    And Lions and Princesses.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ...

    I voted with 28 minutes to go. Mainly to annoy @Heathener.

    I was the only person in there. The polling staff looked bored. And there weren't many names crossed off the list at all.

    That said, I do live in a village in Hampshire.

    All those rural Hampshire Labour voters staying at home.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Nick Meade (Tanks A Lot) story…

    I was at a party and he rang about a vehicle that I and some friends were looking to buy. Was trying to get us to close at price X.

    A rather superior looking woman sneeringly asked me if I’d been speaking to my drug dealer.

    “No”, I replied, “that was my arms dealer.”

    He is a good bloke - mad as a box of frogs in that very English way.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    Hopes of an exit poll were greatly exaggerated.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    Andy_JS said:

    Hopes of an exit poll were greatly exaggerated.

    Isn't that for Westminster elections?
This discussion has been closed.