How will this map and table change tonight and tomorrow? – politicalbetting.com
Current Control of Counils up for Election Today:Majority Control:CON: 87LAB: 49LDM: 17Others: 4Minority Control:CON: 24LAB: 19LDM: 12GRN: 2Others: 16 pic.twitter.com/mhYH3SVoel
Comments
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First, like Labour tonight.1
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The map will change in surprising ways - they'll add Wales and Scotland to it.1
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What's the tiny island of blue in the middle of the red sea in the North West?1
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Pretty sure Tories will do badly, Labour won't do as well as their polling suggests, but make gains, lib dems and greens, will have a goodnight % wise, when the dust settles, all left to play for,0
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What's wrong with this country? I want to wake up first thing and know it all! (or stay up all night and know).
1 -
I don't know @MikeSmithson but it should be interesting.
I guess there's no equivalent of an exit poll or any kind of indication at 10 pm?
Also wondering if the BBC are still going to do their local to national equivalence voting poll?0 -
FPT - In Washington State, "curing" ballots submitted via mail or drop boxes, to make them eligible to count, takes place before and during Election Day, up until one day prior to official certification of the election.
Note that lion's share of returned ballots that are "challenged" by election workers, get flagged for one of two reasons:
> missing signature = failure to sign the required voter oath on outside of return ballot envelope.
> mismatched signature = sig provided does NOT match one on file with voters registration record.
Don't have exact figures, but county-by-county typical challenge rate is about 1% - 2%. And of ballots challenged, more than half are typically cured by voters submitting required sigs or other info.
For some info, including real-time statistics from April 2023 special election in King County, check out this link
https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/ballot-return-statistics/2023/202302.aspx0 -
Bolton I thinkkle4 said:What's the tiny island of blue in the middle of the red sea in the North West?
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On the upside, no Jeremy Vine dressed in a kids cowboy outfit interrupting the results this time…2
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I wasn't expecting electoral results. I was just struck by the artistic choice to not simply grey out the rest of the country but remove them entirely.Carnyx said:
Not for 2 years, in the case of Scotland, IIRC. You'll have an even longer wait than you are lamenting about already, I regret.kle4 said:The map will change in surprising ways - they'll add Wales and Scotland to it.
1 -
Tories will win by 10 points.1
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FPT:
My own voting experience (8:15am): one teller (Con) outside chatting to a polling clerk - the teller only asked me which of the two wards at that polling station I was in.
Presented poll card with driving licence to make it easier for the clerk, ID check seemed to be perfunctory but perhaps not waiting to be asked for ID speeded it up.
Abstained on the grounds of all candidates standing for parties that were members of either the current useless administration or the previous equally useless administration, both of which have eagerly supported one particular disastrous policy which has made residents' lives miserable.0 -
The map will get all embarrased and start to turn quite red.2
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Way Off Topic - Scotland you are NOT alone
Seattle Times ($) - Culprit revealed in Bainbridge Island ferry grounding
Contaminated fuel is the culprit behind last month’s dramatic grounding of the ferry Walla Walla on Bainbridge Island.
The source of the bad fuel, and whether it came from an outside vendor or was dirtied onboard, is still under investigation, said Ian Sterling, spokesperson for the Washington State Ferries. No other ships were affected.
The fuel seems to have clogged the filters leading into the boat’s generators, answering the question of why the redundancies built into the ferry’s systems didn’t prevent the crash. According to Sterling, when one generator went down, a second also failed almost immediately. A third generator takes more time to fire up, which the crew instead used to ready for impact.
The Walla Walla returned to service in Bremerton on Wednesday, just two weeks after its failure. Engineers removed all fuel onboard and cleaned out the tanks, said Sterling. They also attached remote monitors to the generators so that crews might notice a failure more quickly in the future.
The hull was scratched but not damaged. The propeller needed to be bent back into place, which workers underwater were able to do without lifting the boat onto dry dock.
The generators that failed power the onboard lights as well as the controls, which is why the engine still worked but crews lost steering. They stalled just as the ship was entering Rich Passage from Bremerton, on its way to Seattle, when it should have made a nearly 90-degree right turn. The result was a slow drift into the south end of Bainbridge Island, where the vessel and its passengers sat for more than five hours.
“It happened at the worst possible second,” Sterling said.
No injuries were reported. Passengers, after trying to make the best of their time aboard with photo shoots and food from the galley, were eventually offloaded onto Kitsap Transit fast ferries.
The grounding came just as lawmakers in Olympia were considering a budget for ferry maintenance and preservation. Nearly half of the 21-boat fleet is over 40 years old, and three boats are due for retirement in short order.
Legislators also passed a bill making it easier for the state to solicit out-of-state bids for new ferry construction, a stark change from the in-state work currently conducted. Despite concerns from local builders and unions, lawmakers said it’s a necessary change if the state hopes to bring new boats online in a timely and affordable manner.0 -
Oof. I hadn't realised that the Labour leaflet deliverer filmed taking a Conservative leaflet out of someone's letterbox is actually a PPC (Tom Hayes, Bournemouth East). That's potentially new candidate territory.
In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.1 -
This is true, but in (at least some states of) the US they think it's ok to "certify" the election weeks after polling day. We expect declared results within 24 hours of polls closing, so this wouldn't work.SeaShantyIrish2 said:FPT - In Washington State, "curing" ballots submitted via mail or drop boxes, to make them eligible to count, takes place before and during Election Day, up until one day prior to official certification of the election.
Note that lion's share of returned ballots that are "challenged" by election workers, get flagged for one of two reasons:
> missing signature = failure to sign the required voter oath on outside of return ballot envelope.
> mismatched signature = sig provided does NOT match one on file with voters registration record.
Don't have exact figures, but county-by-county typical challenge rate is about 1% - 2%. And of ballots challenged, more than half are typically cured by voters submitting required sigs or other info.
For some info, including real-time statistics from April 2023 special election in King County, check out this link
https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/ballot-return-statistics/2023/202302.aspx0 -
The BBC and Sky are all in on the coronation - nothing else by the looks of itHeathener said:I don't know @MikeSmithson but it should be interesting.
I guess there's no equivalent of an exit poll or any kind of indication at 10 pm?
Also wondering if the BBC are still going to do their local to national equivalence voting poll?
Maybe BBC politics will have it on their Web site1 -
I'm sure there'll be an app push notification tomorrow.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The BBC and Sky are all in on the coronation - nothing else by the looks of itHeathener said:I don't know @MikeSmithson but it should be interesting.
I guess there's no equivalent of an exit poll or any kind of indication at 10 pm?
Also wondering if the BBC are still going to do their local to national equivalence voting poll?
Maybe BBC politics will have it on their Web site0 -
Bolton.kle4 said:What's the tiny island of blue in the middle of the red sea in the North West?
It's long been a swing Council.
Got some very strongly Labour wards of high deprivation and high minority population.
And some extremely wealthy villages which wouldn't be out of place in the Home Counties.
Turns on a few swing wards between the two.2 -
Especially as it is tweeted by Electoral Maps UK.kle4 said:
I wasn't expecting electoral results. I was just struck by the artistic choice to not simply grey out the rest of the country but remove them entirely.Carnyx said:
Not for 2 years, in the case of Scotland, IIRC. You'll have an even longer wait than you are lamenting about already, I regret.kle4 said:The map will change in surprising ways - they'll add Wales and Scotland to it.
Perhaps they know something the rest of us don't?0 -
The local rag reports Mr Hayes, Labour’s member of parliament candidate for Bournemouth East, is a sitting councillor for Oxford City Council and has previously stood to be an MP in Greater Manchester.El_Capitano said:Oof. I hadn't realised that the Labour leaflet deliverer filmed taking a Conservative leaflet out of someone's letterbox is actually a PPC (Tom Hayes, Bournemouth East). That's potentially new candidate territory.
In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.
Making him PPC is bound to have wound up loads of the locals, so it's tough to see him surviving.0 -
Wouldn't work because you haven't tried it.Driver said:
This is true, but in (at least some states of) the US they think it's ok to "certify" the election weeks after polling day. We expect declared results within 24 hours of polls closing, so this wouldn't work.SeaShantyIrish2 said:FPT - In Washington State, "curing" ballots submitted via mail or drop boxes, to make them eligible to count, takes place before and during Election Day, up until one day prior to official certification of the election.
Note that lion's share of returned ballots that are "challenged" by election workers, get flagged for one of two reasons:
> missing signature = failure to sign the required voter oath on outside of return ballot envelope.
> mismatched signature = sig provided does NOT match one on file with voters registration record.
Don't have exact figures, but county-by-county typical challenge rate is about 1% - 2%. And of ballots challenged, more than half are typically cured by voters submitting required sigs or other info.
For some info, including real-time statistics from April 2023 special election in King County, check out this link
https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/ballot-return-statistics/2023/202302.aspx
Note that in about 99% of election races, the final winners & losers are known on Election Night, because the margin is too sizeable to be overturned. And in most of the rest, the end result is clear within a few days.
Only the very closest races still hanging fire. Which by definition deserve careful canvassing NOT a hurry-hurry-tell-us-NOW approach.0 -
These days will video camera door bells you would have thought no one could be that stupidEl_Capitano said:Oof. I hadn't realised that the Labour leaflet deliverer filmed taking a Conservative leaflet out of someone's letterbox is actually a PPC (Tom Hayes, Bournemouth East). That's potentially new candidate territory.
In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.
I assume he will lose his PPC0 -
Will avoid like the plague all weekend for certain then with sick buckets strategically placed in case of finger trouble.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The BBC and Sky are all in on the coronation - nothing else by the looks of itHeathener said:I don't know @MikeSmithson but it should be interesting.
I guess there's no equivalent of an exit poll or any kind of indication at 10 pm?
Also wondering if the BBC are still going to do their local to national equivalence voting poll?
Maybe BBC politics will have it on their Web site0 -
That's what happens when you dev on prod. I'd love to know when they last tried to bring a twitter instance up from cold.El_Capitano said:In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.
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Sky have Charles whizzing up the Mall0
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I am hearing that Guildford is going very badly for the Tories, from somebody who lives there, albeit it's just one source ofc1
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To be fair I didn't know that we have already moved on from councils to counils. Very woke. I'm impressed they agreed to remove the second c that represented the old ways.Benpointer said:
Especially as it is tweeted by Electoral Maps UK.kle4 said:
I wasn't expecting electoral results. I was just struck by the artistic choice to not simply grey out the rest of the country but remove them entirely.Carnyx said:
Not for 2 years, in the case of Scotland, IIRC. You'll have an even longer wait than you are lamenting about already, I regret.kle4 said:The map will change in surprising ways - they'll add Wales and Scotland to it.
Perhaps they know something the rest of us don't?0 -
Nah. Though embarrassing and no doubt officially against party rules to do it, it happens often enough that if they can push an 'investigation' into the long grass he'll get a slap on the wrist.Big_G_NorthWales said:
These days will video camera door bells you would have thought no one could be that stupidEl_Capitano said:Oof. I hadn't realised that the Labour leaflet deliverer filmed taking a Conservative leaflet out of someone's letterbox is actually a PPC (Tom Hayes, Bournemouth East). That's potentially new candidate territory.
In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.
I assume he will lose his PPC0 -
Damn well should if true.Big_G_NorthWales said:
These days will video camera door bells you would have thought no one could be that stupidEl_Capitano said:Oof. I hadn't realised that the Labour leaflet deliverer filmed taking a Conservative leaflet out of someone's letterbox is actually a PPC (Tom Hayes, Bournemouth East). That's potentially new candidate territory.
In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.
I assume he will lose his PPC0 -
I expect his opponents will have it in their publicitykle4 said:
Nah. Though embarrassing and no doubt officially against party rules to do it, it happens often enough that if they can push an 'investigation' into the long grass he'll get a slap on the wrist.Big_G_NorthWales said:
These days will video camera door bells you would have thought no one could be that stupidEl_Capitano said:Oof. I hadn't realised that the Labour leaflet deliverer filmed taking a Conservative leaflet out of someone's letterbox is actually a PPC (Tom Hayes, Bournemouth East). That's potentially new candidate territory.
In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.
I assume he will lose his PPC0 -
Actually the video is available on social media and he is very identifiable on itSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Damn well should if true.Big_G_NorthWales said:
These days will video camera door bells you would have thought no one could be that stupidEl_Capitano said:Oof. I hadn't realised that the Labour leaflet deliverer filmed taking a Conservative leaflet out of someone's letterbox is actually a PPC (Tom Hayes, Bournemouth East). That's potentially new candidate territory.
In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.
I assume he will lose his PPC0 -
The Tories could have a very bad night and still finish 'first', which is probably what they'll put out as their defensive line, most votes and seats on the night. They're defending about 1,200 more seats than Labour.Benpointer said:First, like Labour tonight.
Could lose a dozen or more councils though, with some NOCs going Lab/LD. Labour ought to have a good night.0 -
A settling tank/filter system has long been part of marine diesel operation - as in over a hundred years of SOP.SeaShantyIrish2 said:Way Off Topic - Scotland you are NOT alone
Seattle Times ($) - Culprit revealed in Bainbridge Island ferry grounding
Contaminated fuel is the culprit behind last month’s dramatic grounding of the ferry Walla Walla on Bainbridge Island.
The source of the bad fuel, and whether it came from an outside vendor or was dirtied onboard, is still under investigation, said Ian Sterling, spokesperson for the Washington State Ferries. No other ships were affected.
The fuel seems to have clogged the filters leading into the boat’s generators, answering the question of why the redundancies built into the ferry’s systems didn’t prevent the crash. According to Sterling, when one generator went down, a second also failed almost immediately. A third generator takes more time to fire up, which the crew instead used to ready for impact.
The Walla Walla returned to service in Bremerton on Wednesday, just two weeks after its failure. Engineers removed all fuel onboard and cleaned out the tanks, said Sterling. They also attached remote monitors to the generators so that crews might notice a failure more quickly in the future.
The hull was scratched but not damaged. The propeller needed to be bent back into place, which workers underwater were able to do without lifting the boat onto dry dock.
The generators that failed power the onboard lights as well as the controls, which is why the engine still worked but crews lost steering. They stalled just as the ship was entering Rich Passage from Bremerton, on its way to Seattle, when it should have made a nearly 90-degree right turn. The result was a slow drift into the south end of Bainbridge Island, where the vessel and its passengers sat for more than five hours.
“It happened at the worst possible second,” Sterling said.
No injuries were reported. Passengers, after trying to make the best of their time aboard with photo shoots and food from the galley, were eventually offloaded onto Kitsap Transit fast ferries.
The grounding came just as lawmakers in Olympia were considering a budget for ferry maintenance and preservation. Nearly half of the 21-boat fleet is over 40 years old, and three boats are due for retirement in short order.
Legislators also passed a bill making it easier for the state to solicit out-of-state bids for new ferry construction, a stark change from the in-state work currently conducted. Despite concerns from local builders and unions, lawmakers said it’s a necessary change if the state hopes to bring new boats online in a timely and affordable manner.0 -
No that is the GE. Look what King Rishi has planned for Sir Softie.Dialup said:Tories will win by 10 points.
https://news.sky.com/story/revealed-how-the-conservatives-plan-to-use-keirs-starmers-past-against-him-at-the-next-election-12867654?dicbo=v2-Ohpa5220 -
Lots of American things I am happy for us to import - tech, burgers, box sets, spaceships, good service in restaurants. Voting processes is not one of them, thank you very much for the offer!SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wouldn't work because you haven't tried it.Driver said:
This is true, but in (at least some states of) the US they think it's ok to "certify" the election weeks after polling day. We expect declared results within 24 hours of polls closing, so this wouldn't work.SeaShantyIrish2 said:FPT - In Washington State, "curing" ballots submitted via mail or drop boxes, to make them eligible to count, takes place before and during Election Day, up until one day prior to official certification of the election.
Note that lion's share of returned ballots that are "challenged" by election workers, get flagged for one of two reasons:
> missing signature = failure to sign the required voter oath on outside of return ballot envelope.
> mismatched signature = sig provided does NOT match one on file with voters registration record.
Don't have exact figures, but county-by-county typical challenge rate is about 1% - 2%. And of ballots challenged, more than half are typically cured by voters submitting required sigs or other info.
For some info, including real-time statistics from April 2023 special election in King County, check out this link
https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/ballot-return-statistics/2023/202302.aspx
Note that in about 99% of election races, the final winners & losers are known on Election Night, because the margin is too sizeable to be overturned. And in most of the rest, the end result is clear within a few days.
Only the very closest races still hanging fire. Which by definition deserve careful canvassing NOT a hurry-hurry-tell-us-NOW approach.0 -
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Some random resident, best ignore it.Andy_JS said:
Interesting, but I wonder how accurate these predictions usually turn out to be?Dialup said:I am hearing that Guildford is going very badly for the Tories, from somebody who lives there, albeit it's just one source ofc
Someone actively involved in the campaign who knows what they are doing, take it seriously (if you are confident it isn't deliberate expectations management)0 -
Then I suggest Labour Party consider example set by Oregon state Democratic leaders, in earlier this week forcing resignation of Democratic state Secretary of State for unethical conduct.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Actually the video is available on social media and he is very identifiable on itSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Damn well should if true.Big_G_NorthWales said:
These days will video camera door bells you would have thought no one could be that stupidEl_Capitano said:Oof. I hadn't realised that the Labour leaflet deliverer filmed taking a Conservative leaflet out of someone's letterbox is actually a PPC (Tom Hayes, Bournemouth East). That's potentially new candidate territory.
In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.
I assume he will lose his PPC1 -
Actually in December 2019 if you'd listened to Novara Media and Owen Jones you'd have known Labour had lost hours before the announcement.0
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Even if they know what they are doing I'd be skeptical. It's like when there's leaks about internal party polling and people seem to take it as read that that polling will naturally be more accurate somehow. Campaigns sometimes know what they are doing, sometimes they don't, and even when they do they can still be wrong.IanB2 said:
Some random resident, best ignore it.Andy_JS said:
Interesting, but I wonder how accurate these predictions usually turn out to be?Dialup said:I am hearing that Guildford is going very badly for the Tories, from somebody who lives there, albeit it's just one source ofc
Someone actively involved in the campaign who knows what they are doing, take it seriously (if you are confident it isn't deliberate expectations management)0 -
Labour "voter suppression" lolkle4 said:
Nah. Though embarrassing and no doubt officially against party rules to do it, it happens often enough that if they can push an 'investigation' into the long grass he'll get a slap on the wrist.Big_G_NorthWales said:
These days will video camera door bells you would have thought no one could be that stupidEl_Capitano said:Oof. I hadn't realised that the Labour leaflet deliverer filmed taking a Conservative leaflet out of someone's letterbox is actually a PPC (Tom Hayes, Bournemouth East). That's potentially new candidate territory.
In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.
I assume he will lose his PPC1 -
A little old but has it been discussed?
https://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/23481650.norwich-conservative-leaflet-says-voter-id-not-needed/
'The leaflet, which was distributed to encourage people to vote Conservative, said: “You don’t need to take any ID in order to vote, so long as you are registered.”'0 -
Looks like a very low poll even for local elections, smells of massive Conservative abstentions.
Even the postal's are only about 50% round here!0 -
No doubt "Punch" was sulfurous in its comments re: the Yankee outrage called "hamburgers" back in the day . . . because publishers, editors & dear readers had never actually TRIED a burger?noneoftheabove said:
Lots of American things I am happy for us to import - tech, burgers, box sets, spaceships, good service in restaurants. Voting processes is not one of them, thank you very much for the offer!SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wouldn't work because you haven't tried it.Driver said:
This is true, but in (at least some states of) the US they think it's ok to "certify" the election weeks after polling day. We expect declared results within 24 hours of polls closing, so this wouldn't work.SeaShantyIrish2 said:FPT - In Washington State, "curing" ballots submitted via mail or drop boxes, to make them eligible to count, takes place before and during Election Day, up until one day prior to official certification of the election.
Note that lion's share of returned ballots that are "challenged" by election workers, get flagged for one of two reasons:
> missing signature = failure to sign the required voter oath on outside of return ballot envelope.
> mismatched signature = sig provided does NOT match one on file with voters registration record.
Don't have exact figures, but county-by-county typical challenge rate is about 1% - 2%. And of ballots challenged, more than half are typically cured by voters submitting required sigs or other info.
For some info, including real-time statistics from April 2023 special election in King County, check out this link
https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/ballot-return-statistics/2023/202302.aspx
Note that in about 99% of election races, the final winners & losers are known on Election Night, because the margin is too sizeable to be overturned. And in most of the rest, the end result is clear within a few days.
Only the very closest races still hanging fire. Which by definition deserve careful canvassing NOT a hurry-hurry-tell-us-NOW approach.0 -
He even looks straight at the cameraSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Then I suggest Labour Party consider example set by Oregon state Democratic leaders, in earlier this week forcing resignation of Democratic state Secretary of State for unethical conduct.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Actually the video is available on social media and he is very identifiable on itSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Damn well should if true.Big_G_NorthWales said:
These days will video camera door bells you would have thought no one could be that stupidEl_Capitano said:Oof. I hadn't realised that the Labour leaflet deliverer filmed taking a Conservative leaflet out of someone's letterbox is actually a PPC (Tom Hayes, Bournemouth East). That's potentially new candidate territory.
In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.
I assume he will lose his PPC
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1654125831852285952?t=V3xbiUQmKvC_YhgLp_Rfbw&s=190 -
Just because we are not allowed to vote, many of us UK pb-ers have sat through American elections and taken plenty of interest in how it all works as we can bet profitably on it and have been freely able to do so for many years.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
No doubt "Punch" was sulfurous in its comments re: the Yankee outrage called "hamburgers" back in the day . . . because publishers, editors & dear readers had never actually TRIED a burger?noneoftheabove said:
Lots of American things I am happy for us to import - tech, burgers, box sets, spaceships, good service in restaurants. Voting processes is not one of them, thank you very much for the offer!SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wouldn't work because you haven't tried it.Driver said:
This is true, but in (at least some states of) the US they think it's ok to "certify" the election weeks after polling day. We expect declared results within 24 hours of polls closing, so this wouldn't work.SeaShantyIrish2 said:FPT - In Washington State, "curing" ballots submitted via mail or drop boxes, to make them eligible to count, takes place before and during Election Day, up until one day prior to official certification of the election.
Note that lion's share of returned ballots that are "challenged" by election workers, get flagged for one of two reasons:
> missing signature = failure to sign the required voter oath on outside of return ballot envelope.
> mismatched signature = sig provided does NOT match one on file with voters registration record.
Don't have exact figures, but county-by-county typical challenge rate is about 1% - 2%. And of ballots challenged, more than half are typically cured by voters submitting required sigs or other info.
For some info, including real-time statistics from April 2023 special election in King County, check out this link
https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/ballot-return-statistics/2023/202302.aspx
Note that in about 99% of election races, the final winners & losers are known on Election Night, because the margin is too sizeable to be overturned. And in most of the rest, the end result is clear within a few days.
Only the very closest races still hanging fire. Which by definition deserve careful canvassing NOT a hurry-hurry-tell-us-NOW approach.0 -
Not only old but odd. As another poster commented, it is hardly in the Tory interest to suppress their own vote lol.Carnyx said:A little old but has it been discussed?
https://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/23481650.norwich-conservative-leaflet-says-voter-id-not-needed/
'The leaflet, which was distributed to encourage people to vote Conservative, said: “You don’t need to take any ID in order to vote, so long as you are registered.”'1 -
The world's stupidest voter suppression method, if that's what it was, as I noted at the time - most party leaflets are probably read by supporters, with hardcore anti-tories either not reading or not believing it (versus other information which said ID was needed), and so some number being swayed on their own side. Even in an opponent area it seems most likely to hit Tory backers. So that leaves genuine swing voters, so again not in the interests to dissuade.Carnyx said:A little old but has it been discussed?
https://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/23481650.norwich-conservative-leaflet-says-voter-id-not-needed/
'The leaflet, which was distributed to encourage people to vote Conservative, said: “You don’t need to take any ID in order to vote, so long as you are registered.”'1 -
Indeed it's better to copy Zimbabwe than USA for voting procedures!noneoftheabove said:
Lots of American things I am happy for us to import - tech, burgers, box sets, spaceships, good service in restaurants. Voting processes is not one of them, thank you very much for the offer!SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wouldn't work because you haven't tried it.Driver said:
This is true, but in (at least some states of) the US they think it's ok to "certify" the election weeks after polling day. We expect declared results within 24 hours of polls closing, so this wouldn't work.SeaShantyIrish2 said:FPT - In Washington State, "curing" ballots submitted via mail or drop boxes, to make them eligible to count, takes place before and during Election Day, up until one day prior to official certification of the election.
Note that lion's share of returned ballots that are "challenged" by election workers, get flagged for one of two reasons:
> missing signature = failure to sign the required voter oath on outside of return ballot envelope.
> mismatched signature = sig provided does NOT match one on file with voters registration record.
Don't have exact figures, but county-by-county typical challenge rate is about 1% - 2%. And of ballots challenged, more than half are typically cured by voters submitting required sigs or other info.
For some info, including real-time statistics from April 2023 special election in King County, check out this link
https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/ballot-return-statistics/2023/202302.aspx
Note that in about 99% of election races, the final winners & losers are known on Election Night, because the margin is too sizeable to be overturned. And in most of the rest, the end result is clear within a few days.
Only the very closest races still hanging fire. Which by definition deserve careful canvassing NOT a hurry-hurry-tell-us-NOW approach.0 -
If you know your patch, you usually know. I did the same street for the first night's canvassing in each of my elections, doing every house rather than selectively as everywhere else, and I always had a pretty good feel that first night.kle4 said:
Even if they know what they are doing I'd be skeptical. It's like when there's leaks about internal party polling and people seem to take it as read that that polling will naturally be more accurate somehow. Campaigns sometimes know what they are doing, sometimes they don't, and even when they do they can still be wrong.IanB2 said:
Some random resident, best ignore it.Andy_JS said:
Interesting, but I wonder how accurate these predictions usually turn out to be?Dialup said:I am hearing that Guildford is going very badly for the Tories, from somebody who lives there, albeit it's just one source ofc
Someone actively involved in the campaign who knows what they are doing, take it seriously (if you are confident it isn't deliberate expectations management)
The one time Labour won a by-election in it, from third, I congratulated the Labour candidate on the way in to the count, before any boxes were open, and told the Tories, who always hoped to win their old ward back, that they weren't anywhere near.
Mind you, they both seem surprised how I could be so certain; maybe it is a special knack that only LibDems have?
0 -
In 24 hours time we all get to discover whether the reckoning you promised has come or not.Heathener said:I don't know @MikeSmithson but it should be interesting.
I guess there's no equivalent of an exit poll or any kind of indication at 10 pm?
Also wondering if the BBC are still going to do their local to national equivalence voting poll?0 -
I'm genuinely surprised as he's regarded in Oxford (where he's a city councillor) as a bit of a rising star. Like you say, a really stupid thing to do in an age of ubiquitous Ring cameras. Potentially screwed up his chances of becoming an MP for something that will almost certainly not have changed a single vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He even looks straight at the cameraSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Then I suggest Labour Party consider example set by Oregon state Democratic leaders, in earlier this week forcing resignation of Democratic state Secretary of State for unethical conduct.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Actually the video is available on social media and he is very identifiable on itSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Damn well should if true.Big_G_NorthWales said:
These days will video camera door bells you would have thought no one could be that stupidEl_Capitano said:Oof. I hadn't realised that the Labour leaflet deliverer filmed taking a Conservative leaflet out of someone's letterbox is actually a PPC (Tom Hayes, Bournemouth East). That's potentially new candidate territory.
In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.
I assume he will lose his PPC
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1654125831852285952?t=V3xbiUQmKvC_YhgLp_Rfbw&s=191 -
Don't give the Tories any ideas please.....Foxy said:
Indeed it's better to copy Zimbabwe than USA for voting procedures!noneoftheabove said:
Lots of American things I am happy for us to import - tech, burgers, box sets, spaceships, good service in restaurants. Voting processes is not one of them, thank you very much for the offer!SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wouldn't work because you haven't tried it.Driver said:
This is true, but in (at least some states of) the US they think it's ok to "certify" the election weeks after polling day. We expect declared results within 24 hours of polls closing, so this wouldn't work.SeaShantyIrish2 said:FPT - In Washington State, "curing" ballots submitted via mail or drop boxes, to make them eligible to count, takes place before and during Election Day, up until one day prior to official certification of the election.
Note that lion's share of returned ballots that are "challenged" by election workers, get flagged for one of two reasons:
> missing signature = failure to sign the required voter oath on outside of return ballot envelope.
> mismatched signature = sig provided does NOT match one on file with voters registration record.
Don't have exact figures, but county-by-county typical challenge rate is about 1% - 2%. And of ballots challenged, more than half are typically cured by voters submitting required sigs or other info.
For some info, including real-time statistics from April 2023 special election in King County, check out this link
https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/ballot-return-statistics/2023/202302.aspx
Note that in about 99% of election races, the final winners & losers are known on Election Night, because the margin is too sizeable to be overturned. And in most of the rest, the end result is clear within a few days.
Only the very closest races still hanging fire. Which by definition deserve careful canvassing NOT a hurry-hurry-tell-us-NOW approach.0 -
Is it more important to make sure every valid vote is counted, or to get the absolutely final number by 7am?Driver said:
This is true, but in (at least some states of) the US they think it's ok to "certify" the election weeks after polling day. We expect declared results within 24 hours of polls closing, so this wouldn't work.SeaShantyIrish2 said:FPT - In Washington State, "curing" ballots submitted via mail or drop boxes, to make them eligible to count, takes place before and during Election Day, up until one day prior to official certification of the election.
Note that lion's share of returned ballots that are "challenged" by election workers, get flagged for one of two reasons:
> missing signature = failure to sign the required voter oath on outside of return ballot envelope.
> mismatched signature = sig provided does NOT match one on file with voters registration record.
Don't have exact figures, but county-by-county typical challenge rate is about 1% - 2%. And of ballots challenged, more than half are typically cured by voters submitting required sigs or other info.
For some info, including real-time statistics from April 2023 special election in King County, check out this link
https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/ballot-return-statistics/2023/202302.aspx
1 -
It is those bar charts that do it.IanB2 said:
If you know your patch, you usually know. I did the same street for the first night's canvassing in each of my elections, doing every house rather than selectively as everywhere else, and I always had a pretty good feel that first night.kle4 said:
Even if they know what they are doing I'd be skeptical. It's like when there's leaks about internal party polling and people seem to take it as read that that polling will naturally be more accurate somehow. Campaigns sometimes know what they are doing, sometimes they don't, and even when they do they can still be wrong.IanB2 said:
Some random resident, best ignore it.Andy_JS said:
Interesting, but I wonder how accurate these predictions usually turn out to be?Dialup said:I am hearing that Guildford is going very badly for the Tories, from somebody who lives there, albeit it's just one source ofc
Someone actively involved in the campaign who knows what they are doing, take it seriously (if you are confident it isn't deliberate expectations management)
The one time Labour won a by-election in it, from third, I congratulated the Labour candidate on the way in to the count, before any boxes were open, and told the Tories, who always hoped to win their old ward back, that they weren't anywhere near.
Mind you, they both seem surprised how I could be so certain; maybe it is a special knack that only LibDems have?1 -
One of my councillors once got caught leaflet stealing. Not a PPC admittedly. They doubled their vote that election, so perhaps they actually took a whole bunch more than just one.2
-
Betfair balance says next day not two months, a few dozen court cases and an aborted coup later.rcs1000 said:
Is it more important to make sure every valid vote is counted, or to get the absolutely final number by 7am?Driver said:
This is true, but in (at least some states of) the US they think it's ok to "certify" the election weeks after polling day. We expect declared results within 24 hours of polls closing, so this wouldn't work.SeaShantyIrish2 said:FPT - In Washington State, "curing" ballots submitted via mail or drop boxes, to make them eligible to count, takes place before and during Election Day, up until one day prior to official certification of the election.
Note that lion's share of returned ballots that are "challenged" by election workers, get flagged for one of two reasons:
> missing signature = failure to sign the required voter oath on outside of return ballot envelope.
> mismatched signature = sig provided does NOT match one on file with voters registration record.
Don't have exact figures, but county-by-county typical challenge rate is about 1% - 2%. And of ballots challenged, more than half are typically cured by voters submitting required sigs or other info.
For some info, including real-time statistics from April 2023 special election in King County, check out this link
https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/ballot-return-statistics/2023/202302.aspx1 -
Story says that bad fuel "clogged the filters leading into the boat’s generators" no mention of settling tank, which does NOT mean there isn't one?Malmesbury said:
A settling tank/filter system has long been part of marine diesel operation - as in over a hundred years of SOP.SeaShantyIrish2 said:Way Off Topic - Scotland you are NOT alone
Seattle Times ($) - Culprit revealed in Bainbridge Island ferry grounding
Contaminated fuel is the culprit behind last month’s dramatic grounding of the ferry Walla Walla on Bainbridge Island.
The source of the bad fuel, and whether it came from an outside vendor or was dirtied onboard, is still under investigation, said Ian Sterling, spokesperson for the Washington State Ferries. No other ships were affected.
The fuel seems to have clogged the filters leading into the boat’s generators, answering the question of why the redundancies built into the ferry’s systems didn’t prevent the crash. According to Sterling, when one generator went down, a second also failed almost immediately. A third generator takes more time to fire up, which the crew instead used to ready for impact.
The Walla Walla returned to service in Bremerton on Wednesday, just two weeks after its failure. Engineers removed all fuel onboard and cleaned out the tanks, said Sterling. They also attached remote monitors to the generators so that crews might notice a failure more quickly in the future.
The hull was scratched but not damaged. The propeller needed to be bent back into place, which workers underwater were able to do without lifting the boat onto dry dock.
The generators that failed power the onboard lights as well as the controls, which is why the engine still worked but crews lost steering. They stalled just as the ship was entering Rich Passage from Bremerton, on its way to Seattle, when it should have made a nearly 90-degree right turn. The result was a slow drift into the south end of Bainbridge Island, where the vessel and its passengers sat for more than five hours.
“It happened at the worst possible second,” Sterling said.
No injuries were reported. Passengers, after trying to make the best of their time aboard with photo shoots and food from the galley, were eventually offloaded onto Kitsap Transit fast ferries.
The grounding came just as lawmakers in Olympia were considering a budget for ferry maintenance and preservation. Nearly half of the 21-boat fleet is over 40 years old, and three boats are due for retirement in short order.
Legislators also passed a bill making it easier for the state to solicit out-of-state bids for new ferry construction, a stark change from the in-state work currently conducted. Despite concerns from local builders and unions, lawmakers said it’s a necessary change if the state hopes to bring new boats online in a timely and affordable manner.0 -
As usual there is massive expectation management on all sides but the feeling seems to be if +100 Tories lose 100 + very bad 6-700 losses meh, under 500 a good result. LDs seem unlikely to gaij mofre than 200 so anyhting better would be very good for them.
Im hoping for the meh resuklt at best but would not be surprised if it's much worse for the blues. What it means for the GE who knows.
The Coronation will swiftly kick any news into the long grass apoart from places like this but we should perhaps remind ourselves more frequently how niche we are.0 -
Well, indeed - I have a very low motivation to vote today, and still haven’t done so.theakes said:Looks like a very low poll even for local elections, smells of massive Conservative abstentions.
Even the postal's are only about 50% round here!
I would absolutely turn up for a GE.0 -
According to the listings in The Standard, BBC One have got an all night electionathon with Laura K.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The BBC and Sky are all in on the coronation - nothing else by the looks of itHeathener said:I don't know @MikeSmithson but it should be interesting.
I guess there's no equivalent of an exit poll or any kind of indication at 10 pm?
Also wondering if the BBC are still going to do their local to national equivalence voting poll?
Maybe BBC politics will have it on their Web site
As for the lack of overnight results, is it councils not being able to afford the overtime?
Dashed bad show if it is that.0 -
The correct behaviour when a canvasser sees a video doorbell is to perform a song and dance and hope the owner uploads it to TikTok to win the hearts and minds of the voters.Big_G_NorthWales said:
These days will video camera door bells you would have thought no one could be that stupidEl_Capitano said:Oof. I hadn't realised that the Labour leaflet deliverer filmed taking a Conservative leaflet out of someone's letterbox is actually a PPC (Tom Hayes, Bournemouth East). That's potentially new candidate territory.
In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.
I assume he will lose his PPC4 -
Meanwhile in Stockport...
https://manchestermill.co.uk/p/a-scandal-on-polling-day-have-stockportSomeone had leaked us an email sent by the chair of Stockport’s Constituency Labour Party, in which he was rallying activists to go and campaign in Edgeley, where Labour faces a tough fight against a new independent party. “We are concerned at the strong showing of the Edgeley Community Association in the postal votes,” the email reads.
But hang on, how did he know about their strong showing? Or as Andy, one of our members, asked in the comments: “How do Stockport Labour know what’s in the postal votes in Edgeley? I didn’t think they were meant to be opened/counted until the count begins.”
Good question. We’ve been trying to work out what happened here, and it seems like the Labour official in Stockport may well have broken electoral law.2 -
Those pesky cameras doing for leaflet delivery what they are doing for driving?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He even looks straight at the cameraSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Then I suggest Labour Party consider example set by Oregon state Democratic leaders, in earlier this week forcing resignation of Democratic state Secretary of State for unethical conduct.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Actually the video is available on social media and he is very identifiable on itSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Damn well should if true.Big_G_NorthWales said:
These days will video camera door bells you would have thought no one could be that stupidEl_Capitano said:Oof. I hadn't realised that the Labour leaflet deliverer filmed taking a Conservative leaflet out of someone's letterbox is actually a PPC (Tom Hayes, Bournemouth East). That's potentially new candidate territory.
In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.
I assume he will lose his PPC
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1654125831852285952?t=V3xbiUQmKvC_YhgLp_Rfbw&s=190 -
Cough.El_Capitano said:Meanwhile in Stockport...
https://manchestermill.co.uk/p/a-scandal-on-polling-day-have-stockportSomeone had leaked us an email sent by the chair of Stockport’s Constituency Labour Party, in which he was rallying activists to go and campaign in Edgeley, where Labour faces a tough fight against a new independent party. “We are concerned at the strong showing of the Edgeley Community Association in the postal votes,” the email reads.
But hang on, how did he know about their strong showing? Or as Andy, one of our members, asked in the comments: “How do Stockport Labour know what’s in the postal votes in Edgeley? I didn’t think they were meant to be opened/counted until the count begins.”
Good question. We’ve been trying to work out what happened here, and it seems like the Labour official in Stockport may well have broken electoral law.
Verification process.
Cough.0 -
Or the canvassers asked the canvassed?El_Capitano said:Meanwhile in Stockport...
https://manchestermill.co.uk/p/a-scandal-on-polling-day-have-stockportSomeone had leaked us an email sent by the chair of Stockport’s Constituency Labour Party, in which he was rallying activists to go and campaign in Edgeley, where Labour faces a tough fight against a new independent party. “We are concerned at the strong showing of the Edgeley Community Association in the postal votes,” the email reads.
But hang on, how did he know about their strong showing? Or as Andy, one of our members, asked in the comments: “How do Stockport Labour know what’s in the postal votes in Edgeley? I didn’t think they were meant to be opened/counted until the count begins.”
Good question. We’ve been trying to work out what happened here, and it seems like the Labour official in Stockport may well have broken electoral law.0 -
Speaking of people who should know better. Lord only knows if they actually did glean something from earlier verifications, or they were just talking nonsense to inspire people to try harder, but you'd think they'd know by now not to talk about any such gleanings (again I'm skeptical anyone every actually picks up enough from them to be helpful if the verification is being conducted properly).El_Capitano said:Meanwhile in Stockport...
https://manchestermill.co.uk/p/a-scandal-on-polling-day-have-stockportSomeone had leaked us an email sent by the chair of Stockport’s Constituency Labour Party, in which he was rallying activists to go and campaign in Edgeley, where Labour faces a tough fight against a new independent party. “We are concerned at the strong showing of the Edgeley Community Association in the postal votes,” the email reads.
But hang on, how did he know about their strong showing? Or as Andy, one of our members, asked in the comments: “How do Stockport Labour know what’s in the postal votes in Edgeley? I didn’t think they were meant to be opened/counted until the count begins.”
Good question. We’ve been trying to work out what happened here, and it seems like the Labour official in Stockport may well have broken electoral law.0 -
I see Roger was commenting on the high turnout when he voted.
That's Tories losing control of Antibes District Council nailed on then.6 -
Have we run out of able bodied sixth formers willing to run with a ballot box? Personally, I think this is how the levelling up fund should be distributed - most goes to first result on average over an election period.kle4 said:What's wrong with this country? I want to wake up first thing and know it all! (or stay up all night and know).
Presently my system looks like a winner for the north east.
0 -
That's only the signatures. Shouldn't reveal the actual vote. And in any case the disclosure is illegal. Though at least one noted ScoTory got off scot (so to speak) free after a similar incident in recent years.TheScreamingEagles said:
Cough.El_Capitano said:Meanwhile in Stockport...
https://manchestermill.co.uk/p/a-scandal-on-polling-day-have-stockportSomeone had leaked us an email sent by the chair of Stockport’s Constituency Labour Party, in which he was rallying activists to go and campaign in Edgeley, where Labour faces a tough fight against a new independent party. “We are concerned at the strong showing of the Edgeley Community Association in the postal votes,” the email reads.
But hang on, how did he know about their strong showing? Or as Andy, one of our members, asked in the comments: “How do Stockport Labour know what’s in the postal votes in Edgeley? I didn’t think they were meant to be opened/counted until the count begins.”
Good question. We’ve been trying to work out what happened here, and it seems like the Labour official in Stockport may well have broken electoral law.
Verification process.
Cough.1 -
It’s now the evening shift so I can recycle my joke from this morning to get more likes for my ego.biggles said:
Have we run out of able bodied sixth formers willing to run with a ballot box? Personally, I think this is how the levelling up fund should be distributed - most goes to first result on average over an election period.kle4 said:What's wrong with this country? I want to wake up first thing and know it all! (or stay up all night and know).
Presently my system looks like a winner for the north east.
My polling station had unprecedented turnout at 7am. This may indicate a record turnout nationwide, or it may indicate my wife and I are going out for dinner later so had to vote first thing. You decide.
2 -
No, it is anything but common sense. The number of documented cases of fraud over the past few years can literally be counted on one hand. So you admit that your claim of widespread fraud rests on it being wholly undetectable. Reminds me of the supposed existance of ether, or of WMDs in Iraq.Nigel_Foremain said:
My argument is not over the implementation (which could clearly be a lot better), it is over the merit of doing it, which common sense (and the evidence of other countries) tells me is a stronger case than saying "oh I can't see any fraud" when you are very unlikely to anyway when the system is so open to abuse. Labour on the other hand, see this as a Trumpian opportunity to paint their political foes as being involved in voter suppression which is complete nonsense. What you can conclude from this is that Labour is happy to have a system that is wide open to fraud.Wulfrun_Phil said:
So if you're right (and you haven't linked to any source so I'm not prepared to accept your claim on face value) that could still be 15 countries with mandatory (photo) ID cards requiring photo ID cards, and 11 without photo ID cards requiring some other non-photographic ID, making your total of 26.Nigel_Foremain said:
Not really. 26 countries of EU have compulsory ID for voting. Only 15 have mandatory ID cards. It isn't inevitable.MoonRabbit said:
Needing photo ID for voting makes it inevitable compulsory ID cards will soon follow, doesn’t it. If you want to disagree, note the Tory who screamed to media loudest how utterly wrong voter ID is - David Davies - he would know this slippery slope better than anyone wouldn’t he?Nigel_Foremain said:
You have lost the argument. Let us face it, you are completely overcome by confirmation bias. The Tories have done it so it must be bad. The suggestion that fraud isn't endemic will be news to millions.eek said:
1) Fraud really isn't endemic and even if there was there is little evidence that financial fraud carries over to other areas. And remember there hasn't been zero cases of in person voter id fraud - just so few cases that no one else sees the point of fixing it when postal fraud which has problems wasn't tackled (and postal fraud is easy because you can do that street by street in places taking less than 3 minutes per house).Nigel_Foremain said:
So for the 4th time, or is it 5th or 6th. Fraud is endemic in all aspects of our daily lives. The reality is that no-one knows if it really exists in this form because it is near impossible to assess it, and even if it is not present now, it is highly likely in the future.eek said:
So for a 4th timeNigel_Foremain said:
I am utterly at a loss as to why you think someone presenting proof of ID is "jumping through hoops". Are you a hermit, or do you not engage with the modern world?eek said:
The Electoral commission said that photo ID wasn't necessary - that nothing was required and if anything was required the polling card would be more than enough evidence by itself.Nigel_Foremain said:
I am not the one defending the indefensible. Allowing people to do something as important as voting without being able to demonstrate who they are is ludicrous, and it is state of affairs that has gone on far too long. As I have previously said, all but one EU countries requires it and only 15 of those states have compulsory ID.Gardenwalker said:
I’ve no idea why you are defending the indefensible on this subject.Nigel_Foremain said:
I imagine there will be all sorts of lies put out there about this. The fact that it is largely elderly who may need to return home for ID also gives the lie to the cynical divisive arguments put forward by Labour. If it is the elderly being turned away, then it is more likely to damage the Tories, or, as seems likely to me, have zero effect whatsoever.OldBasing said:
Seems fairly anecdotal so far, and I'm a bit skeptical of Twitter moaners who may have an agenda rather than representing actuality on the ground, but accounts do seem to be suggesting it is (mostly) older voters falling foul of the rules.Gardenwalker said:There are already accounts on Twitter and in the Guardian of people being turned away from polling booths.
What a disgrace.
Reason #456 for why the Tories need booting out, they are not fit to govern.
I forgot a document I needed for something yesterday. It was important enough to me for a me to return to my house to get it. Too lazy or too stupid to bring ID? Not taking democracy seriously. Just like the Labour Party
Even a single voter who is denied a vote (regardless of age) is not “zero effect whatsoever”.
The right to vote is not the same thing as your forgetting your M&S receipt when attempting to return a pair of too-small knickers.
I may not be in the majority on this on here, but I am in the right. The UK Labour Party and the people that it has conned into defending the indefensible (the idea that people should be allowed to do something so important without showing ID) are flying in the face of common sense, as is often the case.
And I'm utterly at a loss as to why you think forcing people to jump through hoops is defensible.
1) the act didn't match the recommendations of the people tasked with managing elections
2) it discourages and stops people voting when we really need more people voting not less.
3) there is known fraud in postal votes but nothing was done about that for "reasons"
And you still haven't answered the question @rsc1000 asked earler
What problem is photo ID for in person voting at elections actually solving?
Fraud is spreading in every aspect of daily life. There are numerous countries and individuals who are looking for gaps in our civil society to exploit. The only valid argument of the dinosaurs who wish to maintain the status quo here is the argument that postal voting is open to fraud. That needs tackling next.
The objections to this are purely political, straight out of the Trump playbook. Paint your political opponents as fraudulent/evil/malign delete as appropriate or accuse all.
I have to hand it to Labour on this one. They have duped you all.
What ACTUAL problem is photo ID for in person voting at elections actually solving?
Because the number of actual cases of in person fraud can be counted on the fingers of 2 hands.
Question for you. Do you think 25 out of 26 EU nations (where only half have ID cards) are wrong to insist, or do you really believe that good old blighty is a bit special so doesn't need or want to learn from the damn foreigners?
2) I have zero problems with ID cards - and if we actually had them I would have zero problem insisting on them when people vote. The issue is we don't have ID cards so every means of getting a vote requires people to spend money on getting a driving licence / passport or even getting a digital photo of a standard the local authority required for a registration card.
Tell me, did you believe the main thrust of The Russia Report? oh I guess not because that was commissioned by the Tories. I suspect you were a little less accepting of that one and quite rightly so. Don't trust everything the Labour Party tells you either. They tell lies too.
With respect to David-couldnt-negotiate-a- discount-at-SCS-Davies ; I am not sure I would expect him to be able to identify a slippery slope if he stood at the top of an unpisted black run in my favourite French alpine ski resort.
The issue is not the ID, it's the requirement for an acceptable form of photographic ID, which in the absence of a national UK identity card an estimated 2 million potential UK voters don't have. And which 97% of those 2 million still didn't have, at the cut off 2 weeks before polling day.
I suspect that a large number of those who don't have requisite ID probably don't care as they probably don't vote. It really is a non-issue that has been blown out of all proportion by cynical politics.
Yet fraud should not be undetectable. While the system as now could allow someone to vote for someone else, if it was happening even on a minimal scale, in some cases people would find on turning up at polling stations that their vote had already been cast. Unless you could be certain that someone was not going to vote, some such cases of attempted double voting would be bound to come to light. The cases would be detected retrospectively and a report of potential fraud submitted in each case by electoral officers. Likewise, sample cross checks with registers of deaths against the marked register would be able to find that find that some dead people had apparently voted. But the retrospective evidence for any of that happening is also almost non-existent. The evidence is that the system on polling day is not broken.
So I think the undetectable cases would boil down to a very few ones almost all involving collusion by the person casting a vote and the person whose vote is being cast, so essentially proxy votes cast by unofficial means. Maybe a daughter voting for a bed bound mother (it could hardly be the father.) And even then, those few votes would be cast in an essentially random way, some for Conservatives, some for Labour etc, in such a way that the randomness all but cancels them out. No way could that distort the outcome of elections in any meaningful way, in which case there is no problem.
Compare that to the effect of putting in place proof of identity requirements that 2 million people can't meet, and specifically applying those exclusions to groups whose voting patterns are going to be quite skewed. Those under pensionable age (i.e. without concessionary bus passes.) Those who have no current or old passports (so likely to be young and/or unable to afford to travel abroad.) Those who don't have access to a car (and households without a car is a very good predictor of poverty.) Basically all demographics likely to be heavily skewed to Labour.
Make no mistake. Voter suppression, big time, by the Conservative Party.2 -
What in the name of God for?Stuartinromford said:
According to the listings in The Standard, BBC One have got an all night electionathon with Laura K.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The BBC and Sky are all in on the coronation - nothing else by the looks of itHeathener said:I don't know @MikeSmithson but it should be interesting.
I guess there's no equivalent of an exit poll or any kind of indication at 10 pm?
Also wondering if the BBC are still going to do their local to national equivalence voting poll?
Maybe BBC politics will have it on their Web site0 -
Not really blue wall at all - the Yellow Peril have long been strong in both, in both local and general elections.nico679 said:
The Tories are in big trouble in Eastbourne and Lewes. Similar type blue wall seats .Dialup said:I am hearing that Guildford is going very badly for the Tories, from somebody who lives there, albeit it's just one source ofc
A bit further north is proper blue wall at the GE level, of course, but there are smatterings of Greens and indies, and it's not that long since the LibDems did really well there at the local level.2 -
The two goals needn't be mutually exclusive.rcs1000 said:
Is it more important to make sure every valid vote is counted, or to get the absolutely final number by 7am?Driver said:
This is true, but in (at least some states of) the US they think it's ok to "certify" the election weeks after polling day. We expect declared results within 24 hours of polls closing, so this wouldn't work.SeaShantyIrish2 said:FPT - In Washington State, "curing" ballots submitted via mail or drop boxes, to make them eligible to count, takes place before and during Election Day, up until one day prior to official certification of the election.
Note that lion's share of returned ballots that are "challenged" by election workers, get flagged for one of two reasons:
> missing signature = failure to sign the required voter oath on outside of return ballot envelope.
> mismatched signature = sig provided does NOT match one on file with voters registration record.
Don't have exact figures, but county-by-county typical challenge rate is about 1% - 2%. And of ballots challenged, more than half are typically cured by voters submitting required sigs or other info.
For some info, including real-time statistics from April 2023 special election in King County, check out this link
https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/ballot-return-statistics/2023/202302.aspx2 -
Fact that a lawyer like TSE is (apparently) clueless re: this detail of electoral procedure, is indicative of the level of (understandable) ignorance about how the process is SUPPOSED to work.Carnyx said:
That's only the signatures. Shouldn't reveal the actual vote. And in any case the disclosure is illegal. Though at least one noted ScoTory got off scot (so to speak) free after a similar incident in recent years.TheScreamingEagles said:
Cough.El_Capitano said:Meanwhile in Stockport...
https://manchestermill.co.uk/p/a-scandal-on-polling-day-have-stockportSomeone had leaked us an email sent by the chair of Stockport’s Constituency Labour Party, in which he was rallying activists to go and campaign in Edgeley, where Labour faces a tough fight against a new independent party. “We are concerned at the strong showing of the Edgeley Community Association in the postal votes,” the email reads.
But hang on, how did he know about their strong showing? Or as Andy, one of our members, asked in the comments: “How do Stockport Labour know what’s in the postal votes in Edgeley? I didn’t think they were meant to be opened/counted until the count begins.”
Good question. We’ve been trying to work out what happened here, and it seems like the Labour official in Stockport may well have broken electoral law.
Verification process.
Cough.
Lots of mostly necessary technicalities. Which are NOT necessarily as obvious as folks who have NOT actually observed ballot processing and vote counting in detail - as opposed to campaigning, betting, commenting or otherwise engaging in politics.
Most political activists AND candidates of my own acquaintance, know a great deal about politics and campaigning. And are mostly ignorant about actual electoral procedure.1 -
Indeed. Despite various anecdata of sobbing nonagenarians being told to hop it at polling stations, this isn't a case of the Tories unintentionally disenfranchising their own voters. It's a case of the Tories intentionally disenfranchising the poor, who are far more likely to have no acceptable form of photo ID lying around and who, irrespective of age, are less likely than other people to vote Conservative.Wulfrun_Phil said:
No, it is anything but common sense. The number of documented cases of fraud over the past few years can literally be counted on one hand. So you admit that your claim of widespread fraud rests on it being wholly undetectable. Reminds me of the supposed existance of ether, or of WMDs in Iraq.Nigel_Foremain said:
My argument is not over the implementation (which could clearly be a lot better), it is over the merit of doing it, which common sense (and the evidence of other countries) tells me is a stronger case than saying "oh I can't see any fraud" when you are very unlikely to anyway when the system is so open to abuse. Labour on the other hand, see this as a Trumpian opportunity to paint their political foes as being involved in voter suppression which is complete nonsense. What you can conclude from this is that Labour is happy to have a system that is wide open to fraud.Wulfrun_Phil said:
So if you're right (and you haven't linked to any source so I'm not prepared to accept your claim on face value) that could still be 15 countries with mandatory (photo) ID cards requiring photo ID cards, and 11 without photo ID cards requiring some other non-photographic ID, making your total of 26.Nigel_Foremain said:
Not really. 26 countries of EU have compulsory ID for voting. Only 15 have mandatory ID cards. It isn't inevitable.MoonRabbit said:
Needing photo ID for voting makes it inevitable compulsory ID cards will soon follow, doesn’t it. If you want to disagree, note the Tory who screamed to media loudest how utterly wrong voter ID is - David Davies - he would know this slippery slope better than anyone wouldn’t he?Nigel_Foremain said:
You have lost the argument. Let us face it, you are completely overcome by confirmation bias. The Tories have done it so it must be bad. The suggestion that fraud isn't endemic will be news to millions.eek said:
1) Fraud really isn't endemic and even if there was there is little evidence that financial fraud carries over to other areas. And remember there hasn't been zero cases of in person voter id fraud - just so few cases that no one else sees the point of fixing it when postal fraud which has problems wasn't tackled (and postal fraud is easy because you can do that street by street in places taking less than 3 minutes per house).Nigel_Foremain said:
So for the 4th time, or is it 5th or 6th. Fraud is endemic in all aspects of our daily lives. The reality is that no-one knows if it really exists in this form because it is near impossible to assess it, and even if it is not present now, it is highly likely in the future.eek said:
So for a 4th timeNigel_Foremain said:
I am utterly at a loss as to why you think someone presenting proof of ID is "jumping through hoops". Are you a hermit, or do you not engage with the modern world?eek said:
The Electoral commission said that photo ID wasn't necessary - that nothing was required and if anything was required the polling card would be more than enough evidence by itself.Nigel_Foremain said:
I am not the one defending the indefensible. Allowing people to do something as important as voting without being able to demonstrate who they are is ludicrous, and it is state of affairs that has gone on far too long. As I have previously said, all but one EU countries requires it and only 15 of those states have compulsory ID.Gardenwalker said:
I’ve no idea why you are defending the indefensible on this subject.Nigel_Foremain said:
I imagine there will be all sorts of lies put out there about this. The fact that it is largely elderly who may need to return home for ID also gives the lie to the cynical divisive arguments put forward by Labour. If it is the elderly being turned away, then it is more likely to damage the Tories, or, as seems likely to me, have zero effect whatsoever.OldBasing said:
Seems fairly anecdotal so far, and I'm a bit skeptical of Twitter moaners who may have an agenda rather than representing actuality on the ground, but accounts do seem to be suggesting it is (mostly) older voters falling foul of the rules.Gardenwalker said:There are already accounts on Twitter and in the Guardian of people being turned away from polling booths.
What a disgrace.
Reason #456 for why the Tories need booting out, they are not fit to govern.
I forgot a document I needed for something yesterday. It was important enough to me for a me to return to my house to get it. Too lazy or too stupid to bring ID? Not taking democracy seriously. Just like the Labour Party
Even a single voter who is denied a vote (regardless of age) is not “zero effect whatsoever”.
The right to vote is not the same thing as your forgetting your M&S receipt when attempting to return a pair of too-small knickers.
I may not be in the majority on this on here, but I am in the right. The UK Labour Party and the people that it has conned into defending the indefensible (the idea that people should be allowed to do something so important without showing ID) are flying in the face of common sense, as is often the case.
And I'm utterly at a loss as to why you think forcing people to jump through hoops is defensible.
1) the act didn't match the recommendations of the people tasked with managing elections
2) it discourages and stops people voting when we really need more people voting not less.
3) there is known fraud in postal votes but nothing was done about that for "reasons"
And you still haven't answered the question @rsc1000 asked earler
What problem is photo ID for in person voting at elections actually solving?
Fraud is spreading in every aspect of daily life. There are numerous countries and individuals who are looking for gaps in our civil society to exploit. The only valid argument of the dinosaurs who wish to maintain the status quo here is the argument that postal voting is open to fraud. That needs tackling next.
The objections to this are purely political, straight out of the Trump playbook. Paint your political opponents as fraudulent/evil/malign delete as appropriate or accuse all.
I have to hand it to Labour on this one. They have duped you all.
What ACTUAL problem is photo ID for in person voting at elections actually solving?
Because the number of actual cases of in person fraud can be counted on the fingers of 2 hands.
Question for you. Do you think 25 out of 26 EU nations (where only half have ID cards) are wrong to insist, or do you really believe that good old blighty is a bit special so doesn't need or want to learn from the damn foreigners?
2) I have zero problems with ID cards - and if we actually had them I would have zero problem insisting on them when people vote. The issue is we don't have ID cards so every means of getting a vote requires people to spend money on getting a driving licence / passport or even getting a digital photo of a standard the local authority required for a registration card.
Tell me, did you believe the main thrust of The Russia Report? oh I guess not because that was commissioned by the Tories. I suspect you were a little less accepting of that one and quite rightly so. Don't trust everything the Labour Party tells you either. They tell lies too.
With respect to David-couldnt-negotiate-a- discount-at-SCS-Davies ; I am not sure I would expect him to be able to identify a slippery slope if he stood at the top of an unpisted black run in my favourite French alpine ski resort.
The issue is not the ID, it's the requirement for an acceptable form of photographic ID, which in the absence of a national UK identity card an estimated 2 million potential UK voters don't have. And which 97% of those 2 million still didn't have, at the cut off 2 weeks before polling day.
I suspect that a large number of those who don't have requisite ID probably don't care as they probably don't vote. It really is a non-issue that has been blown out of all proportion by cynical politics.
Yet fraud should not be undetectable. While the system as now could allow someone to vote for someone else, if it was happening even on a minimal scale, in some cases people would find on turning up at polling stations that their vote had already been cast. Unless you could be certain that someone was not going to vote, some such cases of attempted double voting would be bound to come to light. The cases would be detected retrospectively and a report of potential fraud submitted in each case by electoral officers. Likewise, sample cross checks with registers of deaths against the marked register would be able to find that find that some dead people had apparently voted. But the retrospective evidence for any of that happening is also almost non-existent. The evidence is that the system on polling day is not broken.
So I think the undetectable cases would boil down to a very few ones almost all involving collusion by the person casting a vote and the person whose vote is being cast, so essentially proxy votes cast by unofficial means. Maybe a daughter voting for a bed bound mother (it could hardly be the father.) And even then, those few votes would be cast in an essentially random way, some for Conservatives, some for Labour etc, in such a way that the randomness all but cancels them out. No way could that distort the outcome of elections in any meaningful way, in which case there is no problem.
Compare that to the effect of putting in place proof of identity requirements that 2 million people can't meet, and specifically applying those exclusions to groups whose voting patterns are going to be quite skewed. Those under pensionable age (i.e. without concessionary bus passes.) Those who have no current or old passports (so likely to be young and/or unable to afford to travel abroad.) Those who don't have access to a car (and households without a car is a very good predictor of poverty.) Basically all demographics likely to be heavily skewed to Labour.
Make no mistake. Voter suppression, big time, by the Conservative Party.
It's every bit as bent as it would be if Labour disqualified anyone with a big house.4 -
Quite apart from the morality of it - its a tawdry thing to do - I would have probably waited until the SOPN in Bmth E had closed before the next general election before releasing.El_Capitano said:Oof. I hadn't realised that the Labour leaflet deliverer filmed taking a Conservative leaflet out of someone's letterbox is actually a PPC (Tom Hayes, Bournemouth East). That's potentially new candidate territory.
In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.
My feeling is Tobias E will be in major trouble next time. He is going to need all the help he can get....1 -
Yes. There's no need to take weeks, but counting fast doesn't mean it is rushed or inadequate either. I don't really think it is essential we know by 7am, though I'd prefer it, and there are also good reasons why it takes longer than a day or so in america without weeks being reasonable. It's a fallacy when 'got to get it right' is used as an excuse for being that long, when many many places can get it right, but faster.Driver said:
The two goals needn't be mutually exclusive.rcs1000 said:
Is it more important to make sure every valid vote is counted, or to get the absolutely final number by 7am?Driver said:
This is true, but in (at least some states of) the US they think it's ok to "certify" the election weeks after polling day. We expect declared results within 24 hours of polls closing, so this wouldn't work.SeaShantyIrish2 said:FPT - In Washington State, "curing" ballots submitted via mail or drop boxes, to make them eligible to count, takes place before and during Election Day, up until one day prior to official certification of the election.
Note that lion's share of returned ballots that are "challenged" by election workers, get flagged for one of two reasons:
> missing signature = failure to sign the required voter oath on outside of return ballot envelope.
> mismatched signature = sig provided does NOT match one on file with voters registration record.
Don't have exact figures, but county-by-county typical challenge rate is about 1% - 2%. And of ballots challenged, more than half are typically cured by voters submitting required sigs or other info.
For some info, including real-time statistics from April 2023 special election in King County, check out this link
https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/ballot-return-statistics/2023/202302.aspx
One interesting choice is allowing votes which arrive after election day to be counted if postmarked on that day, which will add a couple of days on to finalisation even if you count the rest quickly of course.0 -
Yes I know these have been long-standing Tory Lib Dem marginals . Labour and the Lib Dems need to work together for the greater good .Richard_Nabavi said:
Not really blue wall at all - the Yellow Peril have long been strong in both, in both local and general elections.nico679 said:
The Tories are in big trouble in Eastbourne and Lewes. Similar type blue wall seats .Dialup said:I am hearing that Guildford is going very badly for the Tories, from somebody who lives there, albeit it's just one source ofc
A bit further north is proper blue wall at the GE level, of course, but there are smatterings of Greens and indies, and it's not that long since the LibDems did really well there at the local level.
I said as much today to the two tellers , one Labour and one Lib Dem . They need to come to some agreement . Number one priority is to rid the country of the Tories .0 -
Are you talking about the last few years or during the election. If the latter I can't see how they would know. If the former yes the last few years has been an absolute disaster for them. A whole pile of incompetence and a dollop of corruption led to loss of control in 2019 to a LD Indie council. The big gainers were the Indies. For instance in my ward a 70% Tory vote became a 70% indie vote.Dialup said:I am hearing that Guildford is going very badly for the Tories, from somebody who lives there, albeit it's just one source ofc
I believe they only have 7 councillors now. 6 are in just one enclave and I expect all those will be lost. Only possible gains are if the LD Indie vote is split as the Indies are challenging all the LDs this time. They didn't have the candidates last time. Where they did was in the rural wards and here their vote was huge.0 -
Reading media reports, whether from next door or a world away, is NOT the equivalent of actually observing the election process, that is how the votes are actually cast and counted.noneoftheabove said:
Just because we are not allowed to vote, many of us UK pb-ers have sat through American elections and taken plenty of interest in how it all works as we can bet profitably on it and have been freely able to do so for many years.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
No doubt "Punch" was sulfurous in its comments re: the Yankee outrage called "hamburgers" back in the day . . . because publishers, editors & dear readers had never actually TRIED a burger?noneoftheabove said:
Lots of American things I am happy for us to import - tech, burgers, box sets, spaceships, good service in restaurants. Voting processes is not one of them, thank you very much for the offer!SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wouldn't work because you haven't tried it.Driver said:
This is true, but in (at least some states of) the US they think it's ok to "certify" the election weeks after polling day. We expect declared results within 24 hours of polls closing, so this wouldn't work.SeaShantyIrish2 said:FPT - In Washington State, "curing" ballots submitted via mail or drop boxes, to make them eligible to count, takes place before and during Election Day, up until one day prior to official certification of the election.
Note that lion's share of returned ballots that are "challenged" by election workers, get flagged for one of two reasons:
> missing signature = failure to sign the required voter oath on outside of return ballot envelope.
> mismatched signature = sig provided does NOT match one on file with voters registration record.
Don't have exact figures, but county-by-county typical challenge rate is about 1% - 2%. And of ballots challenged, more than half are typically cured by voters submitting required sigs or other info.
For some info, including real-time statistics from April 2023 special election in King County, check out this link
https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/ballot-return-statistics/2023/202302.aspx
Note that in about 99% of election races, the final winners & losers are known on Election Night, because the margin is too sizeable to be overturned. And in most of the rest, the end result is clear within a few days.
Only the very closest races still hanging fire. Which by definition deserve careful canvassing NOT a hurry-hurry-tell-us-NOW approach.
Via personal face time. Which few journos, politicos, bloggers or PBers ever do.1 -
I'm more than usually excited about these Locals because they're so close to the General. Also because there's genuine uncertainty about how well Labour are doing. Polls are one thing, real votes in real ballot boxes (from those able to present ID in one of the prescribed forms) are quite another. Soon we'll know how big the Labour lead really is. I desperately hope it's double digits. The difference between 12 and 7 is massive. Not so much numerically (5) but emotionally for the next 18 months. I'd much prefer to spend this time being smug and complacent rather than in a constant state of high anxiety. So c'mon you Labour! ✊️0
-
Quite a lot of councils including mine are unusually going for all out elections with multi-member seats due to boundary changes.rcs1000 said:
Is it more important to make sure every valid vote is counted, or to get the absolutely final number by 7am?Driver said:
This is true, but in (at least some states of) the US they think it's ok to "certify" the election weeks after polling day. We expect declared results within 24 hours of polls closing, so this wouldn't work.SeaShantyIrish2 said:FPT - In Washington State, "curing" ballots submitted via mail or drop boxes, to make them eligible to count, takes place before and during Election Day, up until one day prior to official certification of the election.
Note that lion's share of returned ballots that are "challenged" by election workers, get flagged for one of two reasons:
> missing signature = failure to sign the required voter oath on outside of return ballot envelope.
> mismatched signature = sig provided does NOT match one on file with voters registration record.
Don't have exact figures, but county-by-county typical challenge rate is about 1% - 2%. And of ballots challenged, more than half are typically cured by voters submitting required sigs or other info.
For some info, including real-time statistics from April 2023 special election in King County, check out this link
https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/ballot-return-statistics/2023/202302.aspx
Normally the counting is done quite quickly in the early hours i.e. verify the total number of ballot papers, then sort into piles for each candidate, count the piles, check the spoilt ballot pile, declaration, go home to bed. This time, you have to separately count up to 3 separate votes on each ballot paper from maybe three or more times that number of candidates. I have no idea about the process, other than it's going to take an awfully long time. No wonder they are not starting until Friday after breakfast.
0 -
Both Eastbourne and Lewes are LibDem/Tory contests, with Labour nowhere. Are you perhaps thinking of Hastings, where Labour are strong?nico679 said:
Yes I know these have been long-standing Tory Lib Dem marginals . Labour and the Lib Dems need to work together for the greater good .Richard_Nabavi said:
Not really blue wall at all - the Yellow Peril have long been strong in both, in both local and general elections.nico679 said:
The Tories are in big trouble in Eastbourne and Lewes. Similar type blue wall seats .Dialup said:I am hearing that Guildford is going very badly for the Tories, from somebody who lives there, albeit it's just one source ofc
A bit further north is proper blue wall at the GE level, of course, but there are smatterings of Greens and indies, and it's not that long since the LibDems did really well there at the local level.
I said as much today to the two tellers , one Labour and one Lib Dem . They need to come to some agreement . Number one priority is to rid the country of the Tories .
A confounding factor, in the locals at least, is likely to be the Greens, who have been making progress in this area for some time.0 -
The "Yellow Peril" - perhaps but what of the "Blue Meanies" ?Richard_Nabavi said:
Not really blue wall at all - the Yellow Peril have long been strong in both, in both local and general elections.nico679 said:
The Tories are in big trouble in Eastbourne and Lewes. Similar type blue wall seats .Dialup said:I am hearing that Guildford is going very badly for the Tories, from somebody who lives there, albeit it's just one source ofc
A bit further north is proper blue wall at the GE level, of course, but there are smatterings of Greens and indies, and it's not that long since the LibDems did really well there at the local level.
One of the things that will be of interest is whether local pacts, agreements or understandings among anti-Conservative parties will enable tactical voting on a scale which augments Conservative losses. Splitting the anti-Conservative vote is more likely to save Conservative Council seats than any "Rishi Bounce".0 -
He’s one of the few Tories I quite like .Mortimer said:
Quite apart from the morality of it - its a tawdry thing to do - I would have probably waited until the SOPN in Bmth E had closed before the next general election before releasing.El_Capitano said:Oof. I hadn't realised that the Labour leaflet deliverer filmed taking a Conservative leaflet out of someone's letterbox is actually a PPC (Tom Hayes, Bournemouth East). That's potentially new candidate territory.
In other clown-show news, Musk appears to have broken Twitter again.
My feeling is Tobias E will be in major trouble next time. He is going to need all the help he can get....0 -
I spent the weekend after the 2019 GE at a Corbynite household. Since opinion is just that I don't usually bother to pipe up about areas of political disagreement since why get into arguments about opinion, but I did feel obliged to jump in when they started excitedly sharing stories about Tory election software changing the results, and explain it just doesn't work the way they thought it did because it said so online.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Fact that a lawyer like TSE is (apparently) clueless re: this detail of electoral procedure, is indicative of the level of (understandable) ignorance about how the process is SUPPOSED to work.Carnyx said:
That's only the signatures. Shouldn't reveal the actual vote. And in any case the disclosure is illegal. Though at least one noted ScoTory got off scot (so to speak) free after a similar incident in recent years.TheScreamingEagles said:
Cough.El_Capitano said:Meanwhile in Stockport...
https://manchestermill.co.uk/p/a-scandal-on-polling-day-have-stockportSomeone had leaked us an email sent by the chair of Stockport’s Constituency Labour Party, in which he was rallying activists to go and campaign in Edgeley, where Labour faces a tough fight against a new independent party. “We are concerned at the strong showing of the Edgeley Community Association in the postal votes,” the email reads.
But hang on, how did he know about their strong showing? Or as Andy, one of our members, asked in the comments: “How do Stockport Labour know what’s in the postal votes in Edgeley? I didn’t think they were meant to be opened/counted until the count begins.”
Good question. We’ve been trying to work out what happened here, and it seems like the Labour official in Stockport may well have broken electoral law.
Verification process.
Cough.
Lots of mostly necessary technicalities. Which are NOT necessarily as obvious as folks who have NOT actually observed ballot processing and vote counting in detail - as opposed to campaigning, betting, commenting or otherwise engaging in politics.
Most political activists AND candidates of my own acquaintance, know a great deal about politics and campaigning. And are mostly ignorant about actual electoral procedure.
It's hardly only Corbynites who get even major details wrong, and even those with experience of the process will get some stuff wrong. My favourite remains that some people who have been involved in elections for decades still believe that doing a tick instead of a cross, or drawing a penis in the box, will automatically invalidate your vote - I was told that on here. It really won't (though with the penis it would almost certainly depend where it is). When the party reps have a look at the questionable ballots and the official declares their judgement I've never see the reps object to a penis vote for their opponent. Probably as they know they might benefit one day.
The Electoral Commission guidance on acceptable ballots based on case law includes some that are surprising to me though.1 -
It won’t be any worse at the GE, as you wisely said earlier. Moment of truth in next 19hrs for Heathener. 10 point Labour PNE lead, or bust.Casino_Royale said:
In 24 hours time we all get to discover whether the reckoning you promised has come or not.Heathener said:I don't know @MikeSmithson but it should be interesting.
I guess there's no equivalent of an exit poll or any kind of indication at 10 pm?
Also wondering if the BBC are still going to do their local to national equivalence voting poll?1 -
What if the lead is 'only' 5%?kinabalu said:I'm more than usually excited about these Locals because they're so close to the General. Also because there's genuine uncertainty about how well Labour are doing. Polls are one thing, real votes in real ballot boxes (from those able to present ID in one of the prescribed forms) are quite another. Soon we'll know how big the Labour lead really is. I desperately hope it's double digits. The difference between 12 and 7 is massive. Not so much numerically (5) but emotionally for the next 18 months. I'd much prefer to spend this time being smug and complacent rather than in a constant state of high anxiety. So c'mon you Labour! ✊️
2 -
When I was politically active, I had two "barometer" streets - both dead ends and both with about 50 houses. If I wanted to "take the temperature", I'd do some door knocking down those with a survey of similar and that was usually quite informative.IanB2 said:
If you know your patch, you usually know. I did the same street for the first night's canvassing in each of my elections, doing every house rather than selectively as everywhere else, and I always had a pretty good feel that first night.kle4 said:
Even if they know what they are doing I'd be skeptical. It's like when there's leaks about internal party polling and people seem to take it as read that that polling will naturally be more accurate somehow. Campaigns sometimes know what they are doing, sometimes they don't, and even when they do they can still be wrong.IanB2 said:
Some random resident, best ignore it.Andy_JS said:
Interesting, but I wonder how accurate these predictions usually turn out to be?Dialup said:I am hearing that Guildford is going very badly for the Tories, from somebody who lives there, albeit it's just one source ofc
Someone actively involved in the campaign who knows what they are doing, take it seriously (if you are confident it isn't deliberate expectations management)
The one time Labour won a by-election in it, from third, I congratulated the Labour candidate on the way in to the count, before any boxes were open, and told the Tories, who always hoped to win their old ward back, that they weren't anywhere near.
Mind you, they both seem surprised how I could be so certain; maybe it is a special knack that only LibDems have?
They would also be my first and last canvass streets to see if the campaign had any impact.0 -
What’s Channel 4 News babbling on about here? Chinese spy cameras installed at GCHQ?1
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I don't know if this has already been noted, but this substack post is really good on how the notional votes shares in these locals might point to what is likely to happen in the GE:kinabalu said:I'm more than usually excited about these Locals because they're so close to the General. Also because there's genuine uncertainty about how well Labour are doing. Polls are one thing, real votes in real ballot boxes (from those able to present ID in one of the prescribed forms) are quite another. Soon we'll know how big the Labour lead really is. I desperately hope it's double digits. The difference between 12 and 7 is massive. Not so much numerically (5) but emotionally for the next 18 months. I'd much prefer to spend this time being smug and complacent rather than in a constant state of high anxiety. So c'mon you Labour! ✊️
https://beyondthetopline.substack.com/p/forget-the-party-spin-what-does-history
Tl:dr (and it is quite a long article): Labour need a lead in the national equivalent vote of around 10% to be on track for a small majority at the GE, 12% to 14% for a comfortable majority, or 15%+ to be in landslide territory.1 -
Wasn't it said that more poorer voters voted Tory than Labour in 2019, or was that a myth like the Youthquake of 2017?pigeon said:
Indeed. Despite various anecdata of sobbing nonagenarians being told to hop it at polling stations, this isn't a case of the Tories unintentionally disenfranchising their own voters. It's a case of the Tories intentionally disenfranchising the poor, who are far more likely to have no acceptable form of photo ID lying around and who, irrespective of age, are less likely than other people to vote Conservative.Wulfrun_Phil said:
No, it is anything but common sense. The number of documented cases of fraud over the past few years can literally be counted on one hand. So you admit that your claim of widespread fraud rests on it being wholly undetectable. Reminds me of the supposed existance of ether, or of WMDs in Iraq.Nigel_Foremain said:
My argument is not over the implementation (which could clearly be a lot better), it is over the merit of doing it, which common sense (and the evidence of other countries) tells me is a stronger case than saying "oh I can't see any fraud" when you are very unlikely to anyway when the system is so open to abuse. Labour on the other hand, see this as a Trumpian opportunity to paint their political foes as being involved in voter suppression which is complete nonsense. What you can conclude from this is that Labour is happy to have a system that is wide open to fraud.Wulfrun_Phil said:
So if you're right (and you haven't linked to any source so I'm not prepared to accept your claim on face value) that could still be 15 countries with mandatory (photo) ID cards requiring photo ID cards, and 11 without photo ID cards requiring some other non-photographic ID, making your total of 26.Nigel_Foremain said:
Not really. 26 countries of EU have compulsory ID for voting. Only 15 have mandatory ID cards. It isn't inevitable.MoonRabbit said:
Needing photo ID for voting makes it inevitable compulsory ID cards will soon follow, doesn’t it. If you want to disagree, note the Tory who screamed to media loudest how utterly wrong voter ID is - David Davies - he would know this slippery slope better than anyone wouldn’t he?Nigel_Foremain said:
You have lost the argument. Let us face it, you are completely overcome by confirmation bias. The Tories have done it so it must be bad. The suggestion that fraud isn't endemic will be news to millions.eek said:
1) Fraud really isn't endemic and even if there was there is little evidence that financial fraud carries over to other areas. And remember there hasn't been zero cases of in person voter id fraud - just so few cases that no one else sees the point of fixing it when postal fraud which has problems wasn't tackled (and postal fraud is easy because you can do that street by street in places taking less than 3 minutes per house).Nigel_Foremain said:
So for the 4th time, or is it 5th or 6th. Fraud is endemic in all aspects of our daily lives. The reality is that no-one knows if it really exists in this form because it is near impossible to assess it, and even if it is not present now, it is highly likely in the future.eek said:
So for a 4th timeNigel_Foremain said:
I am utterly at a loss as to why you think someone presenting proof of ID is "jumping through hoops". Are you a hermit, or do you not engage with the modern world?eek said:
The Electoral commission said that photo ID wasn't necessary - that nothing was required and if anything was required the polling card would be more than enough evidence by itself.Nigel_Foremain said:
I am not the one defending the indefensible. Allowing people to do something as important as voting without being able to demonstrate who they are is ludicrous, and it is state of affairs that has gone on far too long. As I have previously said, all but one EU countries requires it and only 15 of those states have compulsory ID.Gardenwalker said:
I’ve no idea why you are defending the indefensible on this subject.Nigel_Foremain said:
I imagine there will be all sorts of lies put out there about this. The fact that it is largely elderly who may need to return home for ID also gives the lie to the cynical divisive arguments put forward by Labour. If it is the elderly being turned away, then it is more likely to damage the Tories, or, as seems likely to me, have zero effect whatsoever.OldBasing said:
Seems fairly anecdotal so far, and I'm a bit skeptical of Twitter moaners who may have an agenda rather than representing actuality on the ground, but accounts do seem to be suggesting it is (mostly) older voters falling foul of the rules.Gardenwalker said:There are already accounts on Twitter and in the Guardian of people being turned away from polling booths.
What a disgrace.
Reason #456 for why the Tories need booting out, they are not fit to govern.
I forgot a document I needed for something yesterday. It was important enough to me for a me to return to my house to get it. Too lazy or too stupid to bring ID? Not taking democracy seriously. Just like the Labour Party
Even a single voter who is denied a vote (regardless of age) is not “zero effect whatsoever”.
The right to vote is not the same thing as your forgetting your M&S receipt when attempting to return a pair of too-small knickers.
I may not be in the majority on this on here, but I am in the right. The UK Labour Party and the people that it has conned into defending the indefensible (the idea that people should be allowed to do something so important without showing ID) are flying in the face of common sense, as is often the case.
And I'm utterly at a loss as to why you think forcing people to jump through hoops is defensible.
1) the act didn't match the recommendations of the people tasked with managing elections
2) it discourages and stops people voting when we really need more people voting not less.
3) there is known fraud in postal votes but nothing was done about that for "reasons"
And you still haven't answered the question @rsc1000 asked earler
What problem is photo ID for in person voting at elections actually solving?
Fraud is spreading in every aspect of daily life. There are numerous countries and individuals who are looking for gaps in our civil society to exploit. The only valid argument of the dinosaurs who wish to maintain the status quo here is the argument that postal voting is open to fraud. That needs tackling next.
The objections to this are purely political, straight out of the Trump playbook. Paint your political opponents as fraudulent/evil/malign delete as appropriate or accuse all.
I have to hand it to Labour on this one. They have duped you all.
What ACTUAL problem is photo ID for in person voting at elections actually solving?
Because the number of actual cases of in person fraud can be counted on the fingers of 2 hands.
Question for you. Do you think 25 out of 26 EU nations (where only half have ID cards) are wrong to insist, or do you really believe that good old blighty is a bit special so doesn't need or want to learn from the damn foreigners?
2) I have zero problems with ID cards - and if we actually had them I would have zero problem insisting on them when people vote. The issue is we don't have ID cards so every means of getting a vote requires people to spend money on getting a driving licence / passport or even getting a digital photo of a standard the local authority required for a registration card.
Tell me, did you believe the main thrust of The Russia Report? oh I guess not because that was commissioned by the Tories. I suspect you were a little less accepting of that one and quite rightly so. Don't trust everything the Labour Party tells you either. They tell lies too.
With respect to David-couldnt-negotiate-a- discount-at-SCS-Davies ; I am not sure I would expect him to be able to identify a slippery slope if he stood at the top of an unpisted black run in my favourite French alpine ski resort.
The issue is not the ID, it's the requirement for an acceptable form of photographic ID, which in the absence of a national UK identity card an estimated 2 million potential UK voters don't have. And which 97% of those 2 million still didn't have, at the cut off 2 weeks before polling day.
I suspect that a large number of those who don't have requisite ID probably don't care as they probably don't vote. It really is a non-issue that has been blown out of all proportion by cynical politics.
Yet fraud should not be undetectable. While the system as now could allow someone to vote for someone else, if it was happening even on a minimal scale, in some cases people would find on turning up at polling stations that their vote had already been cast. Unless you could be certain that someone was not going to vote, some such cases of attempted double voting would be bound to come to light. The cases would be detected retrospectively and a report of potential fraud submitted in each case by electoral officers. Likewise, sample cross checks with registers of deaths against the marked register would be able to find that find that some dead people had apparently voted. But the retrospective evidence for any of that happening is also almost non-existent. The evidence is that the system on polling day is not broken.
So I think the undetectable cases would boil down to a very few ones almost all involving collusion by the person casting a vote and the person whose vote is being cast, so essentially proxy votes cast by unofficial means. Maybe a daughter voting for a bed bound mother (it could hardly be the father.) And even then, those few votes would be cast in an essentially random way, some for Conservatives, some for Labour etc, in such a way that the randomness all but cancels them out. No way could that distort the outcome of elections in any meaningful way, in which case there is no problem.
Compare that to the effect of putting in place proof of identity requirements that 2 million people can't meet, and specifically applying those exclusions to groups whose voting patterns are going to be quite skewed. Those under pensionable age (i.e. without concessionary bus passes.) Those who have no current or old passports (so likely to be young and/or unable to afford to travel abroad.) Those who don't have access to a car (and households without a car is a very good predictor of poverty.) Basically all demographics likely to be heavily skewed to Labour.
Make no mistake. Voter suppression, big time, by the Conservative Party.
It's every bit as bent as it would be if Labour disqualified anyone with a big house.
It may prove quite the self defeating measure.0 -
Cunning old Stodger 😏stodge said:
When I was politically active, I had two "barometer" streets - both dead ends and both with about 50 houses. If I wanted to "take the temperature", I'd do some door knocking down those with a survey of similar and that was usually quite informative.IanB2 said:
If you know your patch, you usually know. I did the same street for the first night's canvassing in each of my elections, doing every house rather than selectively as everywhere else, and I always had a pretty good feel that first night.kle4 said:
Even if they know what they are doing I'd be skeptical. It's like when there's leaks about internal party polling and people seem to take it as read that that polling will naturally be more accurate somehow. Campaigns sometimes know what they are doing, sometimes they don't, and even when they do they can still be wrong.IanB2 said:
Some random resident, best ignore it.Andy_JS said:
Interesting, but I wonder how accurate these predictions usually turn out to be?Dialup said:I am hearing that Guildford is going very badly for the Tories, from somebody who lives there, albeit it's just one source ofc
Someone actively involved in the campaign who knows what they are doing, take it seriously (if you are confident it isn't deliberate expectations management)
The one time Labour won a by-election in it, from third, I congratulated the Labour candidate on the way in to the count, before any boxes were open, and told the Tories, who always hoped to win their old ward back, that they weren't anywhere near.
Mind you, they both seem surprised how I could be so certain; maybe it is a special knack that only LibDems have?
They would also be my first and last canvass streets to see if the campaign had any impact.0
