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In local elections week R&W, has LAB edging up again – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,481
    People in comas showed ‘conscious-like’ brain activity as they died, study says
    ‘Potential neuro-signatures of consciousness’ observed in unresponsive patients at time of death, scientists say
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/may/01/people-in-comas-showed-conscious-like-brain-activity-as-they-died-study-says

    Interesting study.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    eek said:

    Dialup said:
    Desperate attempt to find something that sticks.

    And given the amount of effort they are spending looking trans / sex ed issues I have to ask is that really the best they can do to find things to attack Labour on.
    The funniest thing is apparently a 14-point Labour lead (43-29) isn't enough for an overall majority but would simply leave Labour as the largest party.

    Seriously, that's a 14% swing and would be more than enough for a majority.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,972

    ydoethur said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    I don't think that's quite the usual style @Casino_Royale goes for.
    If that's what @MoonRabbit looks like, and she's wearing that, then woof-woof.
    No that’s an online model!

    I look like Liv Tyler and my thighs are much much fatter 😭
    Liv Tyler is a beauty.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534

    ydoethur said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    I don't think that's quite the usual style @Casino_Royale goes for.
    If that's what @MoonRabbit looks like, and she's wearing that, then woof-woof.
    No that’s an online model!

    I look like Liv Tyler and my thighs are much much fatter 😭
    Read that at first as "Liz Taylor"!
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    What is the effective swing needed for a majority if Labour pick up 20 or so seats North of the border?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    ydoethur said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    I don't think that's quite the usual style @Casino_Royale goes for.
    If that's what @MoonRabbit looks like, and she's wearing that, then woof-woof.
    No that’s an online model!

    I look like Liv Tyler and my thighs are much much fatter 😭
    Read that at first as "Liz Taylor"!
    Who?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,150

    ydoethur said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    I don't think that's quite the usual style @Casino_Royale goes for.
    If that's what @MoonRabbit looks like, and she's wearing that, then woof-woof.
    No that’s an online model!

    I look like Liv Tyler and my thighs are much much fatter 😭
    Read that at first as "Liz Taylor"!
    Who?
    A lady who went for a Burton many years ago.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,788
    Rishi Sunak?

    It’s time for PR. The leader of the most successful party in British history backs PR. Labour Party delegates back PR. Starmer needs to back PR
    https://twitter.com/OliProbertHill/status/1651880271933853697?cxt=HHwWgsC-wd6W1OwtAAAA
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dialup said:

    Ed Davey fans please explain

    Wait.

    There are Ed Davey fans?
    Well, I don’t totally hate him.
    A quote to be seen on a leaflet next week.
    Lib Dems - not totally despised here.
    I would totally respect a leaflet from a party or individual which really leaned into the 'least worst' calculation many voters do indeed engage in, and the protest vote at locals angle, and just go "Look, it's a local election, you might as well go for me, it won't matter".
    Voting for Me = Free Kick against Them
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    edited May 2023

    ydoethur said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    I don't think that's quite the usual style @Casino_Royale goes for.
    If that's what @MoonRabbit looks like, and she's wearing that, then woof-woof.
    No that’s an online model!

    I look like Liv Tyler and my thighs are much much fatter 😭
    Read that at first as "Liz Taylor"!
    Who?
    Shirley you jest? EDIT - Ain't you a horseracing fan? Never saw "National Velvet"?

    Though it was not that Liz Taylor, or her in "Cleopatra'' I had in my mind's eye. Instead, LT in her Andy Warhol - Michael Jackson period.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,573

    ydoethur said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    I don't think that's quite the usual style @Casino_Royale goes for.
    If that's what @MoonRabbit looks like, and she's wearing that, then woof-woof.
    No that’s an online model!

    I look like Liv Tyler and my thighs are much much fatter 😭
    Liv Tyler looks OK :blush:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,481

    ydoethur said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    I don't think that's quite the usual style @Casino_Royale goes for.
    If that's what @MoonRabbit looks like, and she's wearing that, then woof-woof.
    No that’s an online model!

    I look like Liv Tyler and my thighs are much much fatter 😭
    Read that at first as "Liz Taylor"!
    Who?
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    I don't think that's quite the usual style @Casino_Royale goes for.
    If that's what @MoonRabbit looks like, and she's wearing that, then woof-woof.
    No that’s an online model!

    I look like Liv Tyler and my thighs are much much fatter 😭
    Read that at first as "Liz Taylor"!
    Who?
    A lady who went for a Burton many years ago.
    A cat on a hot tin roof.
    Ended in denial.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,573
    kle4 said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    Sudden surge in patriotism around here apparently.


    You can't beat my Union Jack thongs!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,481
    Russian reporter: "We know that you don't support...aid to Ukraine...can you comment U.S Policy will change?"

    @SpeakerMcCarthy: "No, I vote for aid for Ukraine. I support aid for Ukraine. I do not support what your country has done to Ukraine."

    https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1653070894359560192
  • glwglw Posts: 9,870
    Nigelb said:

    Based on intelligence info, Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut in last few months--80,000 wounded and 20,000 killed since December, NSC spokesman John Kirby says. Prigozhin's claim Wagner Group's had only 94 killed in action "is just a ludicrous claim."
    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1653093775944699905

    That's on a par with the entire 9 year long Soviet-Afghan War. A murderous level of incompetence by the Russian government and military, not forgetting of course their genocidal intent in the first place.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,339

    ydoethur said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    I don't think that's quite the usual style @Casino_Royale goes for.
    If that's what @MoonRabbit looks like, and she's wearing that, then woof-woof.
    No that’s an online model!

    I look like Liv Tyler and my thighs are much much fatter 😭
    Does your dad look like Steve?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,481
    edited May 2023
    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Based on intelligence info, Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut in last few months--80,000 wounded and 20,000 killed since December, NSC spokesman John Kirby says. Prigozhin's claim Wagner Group's had only 94 killed in action "is just a ludicrous claim."
    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1653093775944699905

    That's on a par with the entire 9 year long Soviet-Afghan War. A murderous level of incompetence by the Russian government and military, not forgetting of course their genocidal intent in the first place.
    Those figures are likely for the entire front, if true.
    But the bulk of the fighting has been concentrated in that area.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    2019 Tories rate immigration highly and yet the Sun's poll has them doing badly on it with all voters.

    But instead let's try distraction tactics away from the economy like the culture wars. I just cannot see how this washes.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    Elizabeth Taylor Richard Burton in "Cleopatra"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5Ynodf9CcY
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,718
    Dialup said:

    eek said:

    Dialup said:
    Desperate attempt to find something that sticks.

    And given the amount of effort they are spending looking trans / sex ed issues I have to ask is that really the best they can do to find things to attack Labour on.
    I find it curious the Sun didn't ask, do the issues make a difference to how you'd vote. Because my suggestion is they don't to enough people.
    It seems a bit like an exercise in leading questions to me. A lot of them are Tory culture warrior equivalents of the Mirror asking people if they agree it’s important to have a strong NHS
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited May 2023

    This is a bit Norman Bates/Psycho.

    King to be dressed in floor length golden robes worn by late Queen at ceremony

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1653098551507836935

    No it isn't.
    That's that settled then. Got to wonder how flaky some of the support for the monarchy will be, as the monarch does crazier and crazier shit. I would so much like there to be a betting market on how long he'll last in his current "job".

    This is the guy who when his ex-wife died in a foreign country hurried there and had her body brought to his house. Shades of Juan Peron?

    And who else other than his mother has had "old age" recorded on their death certificate as the sole cause of death?

    Of course for some it's approaching treason just to point such stuff out and call it what it would be called if it were happening with someone outside of the royal family.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    At risk of over-exciting TSE, Elizabeth Taylor was also Princess Leia's step-mom, sorta.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,573
    Leicester and Everton do West Ham a big favour :lol:
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    ydoethur said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    I don't think that's quite the usual style @Casino_Royale goes for.
    If that's what @MoonRabbit looks like, and she's wearing that, then woof-woof.
    No that’s an online model!

    I look like Liv Tyler and my thighs are much much fatter 😭
    Does your dad look like Steve?
    Liv Tyler has German ancestry, like my Dad, from Liv’s mothers side I think. But I get the look from my mothers ancestry which was Hong Kong and we think in China before that.

    Tbh I look just a bit like Liv Tyler, I might have over egged it on account of the number of times I’ve heard “you look like that elf in Lord of the rings.”
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    ydoethur said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    I don't think that's quite the usual style @Casino_Royale goes for.
    If that's what @MoonRabbit looks like, and she's wearing that, then woof-woof.
    No that’s an online model!

    I look like Liv Tyler and my thighs are much much fatter 😭
    Does your dad look like Steve?
    Liv Tyler has German ancestry, like my Dad, from Liv’s mothers side I think. But I get the look from my mothers ancestry which was Hong Kong and we think in China before that.

    Tbh I look just a bit like Liv Tyler, I might have over egged it on account of the number of times I’ve heard “you look like that elf in Lord of the rings.”
    Could they have meant Orlando Bloom? ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,150
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    I don't think that's quite the usual style @Casino_Royale goes for.
    If that's what @MoonRabbit looks like, and she's wearing that, then woof-woof.
    No that’s an online model!

    I look like Liv Tyler and my thighs are much much fatter 😭
    Does your dad look like Steve?
    Liv Tyler has German ancestry, like my Dad, from Liv’s mothers side I think. But I get the look from my mothers ancestry which was Hong Kong and we think in China before that.

    Tbh I look just a bit like Liv Tyler, I might have over egged it on account of the number of times I’ve heard “you look like that elf in Lord of the rings.”
    Could they have meant Orlando Bloom? ;)
    Only when you've had a few too many and appear Legolas.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,573
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    I don't think that's quite the usual style @Casino_Royale goes for.
    If that's what @MoonRabbit looks like, and she's wearing that, then woof-woof.
    No that’s an online model!

    I look like Liv Tyler and my thighs are much much fatter 😭
    Does your dad look like Steve?
    Liv Tyler has German ancestry, like my Dad, from Liv’s mothers side I think. But I get the look from my mothers ancestry which was Hong Kong and we think in China before that.

    Tbh I look just a bit like Liv Tyler, I might have over egged it on account of the number of times I’ve heard “you look like that elf in Lord of the rings.”
    Could they have meant Orlando Bloom? ;)
    Only when you've had a few too many and appear Legolas.
    Balbo Biggins :lol:
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    ydoethur said:

    Well played Luca Brecel.

    Belgians, coming over here, winning our snooker! What was the point of Brexit!?!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    Didn't someone tip the young overseas players as farcically overpriced value?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    TimS said:

    Dialup said:

    eek said:

    Dialup said:
    Desperate attempt to find something that sticks.

    And given the amount of effort they are spending looking trans / sex ed issues I have to ask is that really the best they can do to find things to attack Labour on.
    I find it curious the Sun didn't ask, do the issues make a difference to how you'd vote. Because my suggestion is they don't to enough people.
    It seems a bit like an exercise in leading questions to me. A lot of them are Tory culture warrior equivalents of the Mirror asking people if they agree it’s important to have a strong NHS
    So more people are proud of their country than not. Why is this a problem for Starmer?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Sounds like how the Seattle Kraken just made it into the Stanley Cup semi-semi-finals.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487
    edited May 2023
    Real income changes in selected countries:


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,456
    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,748
    This is the Scottish Parliament in session, or maybe not

    BBC News - Protests repeatedly halt first minister's questions
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65128937
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,571

    This is the Scottish Parliament in session, or maybe not

    BBC News - Protests repeatedly halt first minister's questions
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65128937

    That's over a month old Big_G
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,829
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'd expect the Conservatives to reach 30% in NEV. Simply because Reform won't translate its poll rating into votes on the ground.

    I expect Reform vote to stay home where it doesn’t have an option, as well as a chunk of Conservative vote staying home too.

    Tories 22% in the NEV. so let’s see friday afternoon, not long to go.
    That would imply that the Conservatives will do 3% worse than in 1995.

    A year when the Conservatives lost councils like Fenland, Hertsmere, Dartford, Gravesham, to Labour. Nothing indicates to me that such a result is on the cards this time around, but we'll see.
    It’s been a while since we’ve been treated to HY’s explanation of why the Tories will gain seats?
    Gains from the LDs, who got 19% in 2019 and Independents yes.

    I have also never denied Labour will gain seats off the Tories
    I've posted my views before, but I think the LDs will do fine, even off the relative high base of 2019. Indeed, I think they'll end up gaining a few (60-120) councillors. The big winner, though, will be Labour. I think they'll end up gaining 300-450 councillors on the night.

    A very interesting question is how the Greens will do. They did incredibly well in 2019, gaining 198 councillors to get to 273 on the night. Their performances in 2021 and 2022 didn't match 2019, and it's possible they could actually go backwards somewhat.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561

    This is the Scottish Parliament in session, or maybe not

    BBC News - Protests repeatedly halt first minister's questions
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65128937

    That's over a month old Big_G
    I do not accept the meme
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,571
    edited May 2023
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
    I think you needed a win today.

    I can see you getting 3 more points, against Bournemouth in the last game, that's all.

    32 points won't be enough to stay up.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,748

    This is the Scottish Parliament in session, or maybe not

    BBC News - Protests repeatedly halt first minister's questions
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65128937

    That's over a month old Big_G
    Maybe but it is not a good look for Holyrood
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,456
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
    Fixtures look pretty gruelling for us both. Forest vs Southampton looks key for the other teams.

    5 points from nine under our new management, I fear we left it too late to ditch Rodgers.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,748
    Labour considering Drakeford's 'widow tax' apparently

    All those singles losing their council tax discount if this goes ahead

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/01/labour-widows-tax-single-person-discount-council-tax/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    edited May 2023

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
    I think you needed a win today.

    I can see you getting 3 more points, against Bournemouth in the last game, that's all.

    32 points won't be enough to stay up.
    Well. Yes. However Wolves seem to have gone on holiday.
    Brighton have a seriously gruelling schedule of games in hand against almost all the top 4. They may just declare.
    Lot more confident after tonight. At least it was a performance.
    And at least it looks like we have a fit striker.
    Also. Leeds look comical.
    I thought we were down several months ago. Bit less certain now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,339
    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Based on intelligence info, Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut in last few months--80,000 wounded and 20,000 killed since December, NSC spokesman John Kirby says. Prigozhin's claim Wagner Group's had only 94 killed in action "is just a ludicrous claim."
    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1653093775944699905

    That's on a par with the entire 9 year long Soviet-Afghan War. A murderous level of incompetence by the Russian government and military, not forgetting of course their genocidal intent in the first place.
    Bakhmut's been a hell of a rope-a-dope by the Ukrainians.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,748
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
    I think you needed a win today.

    I can see you getting 3 more points, against Bournemouth in the last game, that's all.

    32 points won't be enough to stay up.
    Well. Yes. However Wolves seem to have gone on holiday.
    Brighton have a seriously gruelling schedule against almost all the top 4.
    Lot more confident after tonight. At least it was a performance.
    And at least it looks like we have a fit striker.
    Also. Leeds look comical.
    Brighton face Man Utd, Arsenal, City, Newcastle and Aston Villa

    A formidable end of season for them
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,422

    This is the Scottish Parliament in session, or maybe not

    BBC News - Protests repeatedly halt first minister's questions
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65128937

    That's over a month old Big_G
    Maybe but it is not a good look for Holyrood

    This is the Scottish Parliament in session, or maybe not

    BBC News - Protests repeatedly halt first minister's questions
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65128937

    That's over a month old Big_G
    Maybe but it is not a good look for Holyrood
    At Westminster they hermetically seal you in a green house after a vigorous strip search.

    That's not a good feeling.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,577

    ydoethur said:

    Well played Luca Brecel.

    Belgians, coming over here, winning our snooker! What was the point of Brexit!?!
    Quite exciting, isn't it? First time someone without English as a first language has won it. I genuinely wonder how aware Belgium is about this. I hope it gets the attention it deserves. He's a remarkable player and it would be a shame were it not as appreciated as it deserves to be.
    I wonder if we'll get any more Europeans involved as a result?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,571

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
    I think you needed a win today.

    I can see you getting 3 more points, against Bournemouth in the last game, that's all.

    32 points won't be enough to stay up.
    Well. Yes. However Wolves seem to have gone on holiday.
    Brighton have a seriously gruelling schedule against almost all the top 4.
    Lot more confident after tonight. At least it was a performance.
    And at least it looks like we have a fit striker.
    Also. Leeds look comical.
    Brighton face Man Utd, Arsenal, City, Newcastle and Aston Villa

    A formidable end of season for them
    ... but also Everton and Southampton at home.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,130
    Is Luca Brecel the first player from a non-English speaking (as first language) country to win the snooker world championship?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,577
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well played Luca Brecel.

    Belgians, coming over here, winning our snooker! What was the point of Brexit!?!
    Quite exciting, isn't it? First time someone without English as a first language has won it. I genuinely wonder how aware Belgium is about this. I hope it gets the attention it deserves. He's a remarkable player and it would be a shame were it not as appreciated as it deserves to be.
    I wonder if we'll get any more Europeans involved as a result?
    Also, well done Selby and Luca in concluding the final at a sensible hour. It's frustrating if it's over by 8 but impractical if it goes on much beyond 11.30.
    It's been a brilliant tournament. I can't remember the last time I enjoyed a World Championship this much.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    I think that was a good point for Everton. I reckon Leicester and Leeds are going down with Southampton.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well played Luca Brecel.

    Belgians, coming over here, winning our snooker! What was the point of Brexit!?!
    Quite exciting, isn't it? First time someone without English as a first language has won it. I genuinely wonder how aware Belgium is about this. I hope it gets the attention it deserves. He's a remarkable player and it would be a shame were it not as appreciated as it deserves to be.
    I wonder if we'll get any more Europeans involved as a result?
    A good match and an exciting player. No idea if it will get a whole generation of Belgians into the sport, but let's hope so.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well played Luca Brecel.

    Belgians, coming over here, winning our snooker! What was the point of Brexit!?!
    Quite exciting, isn't it? First time someone without English as a first language has won it. I genuinely wonder how aware Belgium is about this. I hope it gets the attention it deserves. He's a remarkable player and it would be a shame were it not as appreciated as it deserves to be.
    I wonder if we'll get any more Europeans involved as a result?
    Irishmen aside, I think Tony Drago (Malta) is the only famous one I can think of without looking it up.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
    I think you needed a win today.

    I can see you getting 3 more points, against Bournemouth in the last game, that's all.

    32 points won't be enough to stay up.
    Well. Yes. However Wolves seem to have gone on holiday.
    Brighton have a seriously gruelling schedule against almost all the top 4.
    Lot more confident after tonight. At least it was a performance.
    And at least it looks like we have a fit striker.
    Also. Leeds look comical.
    Brighton face Man Utd, Arsenal, City, Newcastle and Aston Villa

    A formidable end of season for them
    And us between the United and Arsenal bit. With us on a bit more rest. I'm hoping they'll throw everything at United in the hope of making Europe. Then rest a few for the big Arsenal game.
    It's the hope that's the problem.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Struggling to understand how Harry Cole has concluded a 14 point lead would lead to no overall majority, can anyone explain?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,422

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Based on intelligence info, Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut in last few months--80,000 wounded and 20,000 killed since December, NSC spokesman John Kirby says. Prigozhin's claim Wagner Group's had only 94 killed in action "is just a ludicrous claim."
    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1653093775944699905

    That's on a par with the entire 9 year long Soviet-Afghan War. A murderous level of incompetence by the Russian government and military, not forgetting of course their genocidal intent in the first place.
    Bakhmut's been a hell of a rope-a-dope by the Ukrainians.
    I'm surprised we don't have access to solid numbers on casualties/KIA. Would've thought it would be quite easy to work out for investigations teams at major media outfits.

    Do you think our MoD have a good picture? The Ukrainians themselves, or is it all just wildly more messy than I can imagine?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487
    carnforth said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well played Luca Brecel.

    Belgians, coming over here, winning our snooker! What was the point of Brexit!?!
    Quite exciting, isn't it? First time someone without English as a first language has won it. I genuinely wonder how aware Belgium is about this. I hope it gets the attention it deserves. He's a remarkable player and it would be a shame were it not as appreciated as it deserves to be.
    I wonder if we'll get any more Europeans involved as a result?
    Irishmen aside, I think Tony Drago (Malta) is the only famous one I can think of without looking it up.
    Speaking of Malta:

    https://timesofmalta.com/articles/view/dutch-police-arrest-boris-johnson-after-drunk-driving-incident.1028846
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Sir Keir Starmer gave a fascinating interview to The Economist a few days ago. No, wait, come back! For once it really is possible to pay that kind of compliment with a straight face. It took 4,926 words but the unthinkable has at last occurred: the Labour leader said something substantive about economic policy and his plan for growth.

    Writing on these pages last week, Janice Turner offered some sound but blindingly obvious advice to the leader of the opposition. So obvious, Blairites with his ear complain, that it is all too frequently forgotten by his shadow cabinet and strategists: “Labour’s sole task is to convince us that its economic plans are ambitious enough to pull us out of this morass.”
    And are they? Well, about that word “ambitious” . . . With no success stories of his own to tell, Greg Hands, the Conservative Party chairman, has taken to answering every question he faces on any subject with a wave of the letter left by Labour’s Liam Byrne in the Treasury nearly 13 years ago: “I’m afraid there is no money. Kind regards — and good luck!” The point of this campaigning by punchline, of course, is to stoke the fears of profligacy that swing voters still express — indeed, sometimes citing that very bon mot — in Labour’s focus groups.

    But to Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, Byrne’s words do not amount to the shortest suicide note in political history but a philosophy for government. Such is the reality of life under Reeves and her deputy, Pat McFadden — Starmer’s Mr Gradgrind — for shadow cabinet ministers who wish to spend significant sums on anything. There is no money. Can you tell us how you’d raise it instead? Bear in mind there’s only so many times we can promise to abolish non-dom status, VAT on private school fees only raises so much and we’ve pledged not to raise taxes on working people. Or capital gains tax. Kind regards — and good luck!

  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    All of which would seem to put a low ceiling on Labour’s ambitions for government. We should not be surprised that a former Bank of England economist in Reeves and a confidant to Sir Tony Blair in McFadden should cleave so closely to fiscal orthodoxy, arid though such thinking seems to colleagues. Theirs is a wing of the Labour Party haunted and vindicated in equal measure by Ed Miliband’s loss in 2015 as much as Jeremy Corbyn’s in 2019. If dullness is the price of economic credibility, then so be it.
    Shadow cabinet ministers do not need much inducement to criticise just how inflexibly this logic is applied. Labour’s fiscal policy, they complain in unguarded moments, is run by political agoraphobes. The historically literate draw parallels with Philip Snowden, who as Labour’s first chancellor preached an immiserating creed of fiscal discipline, even in the teeth of the Depression and mass unemployment. Nearly a century on, his actuarial school of policymaking reigns supreme. But if Labour really does abide by these self-denying ordinances in government, how does it propose to change anything? In that Economist interview Starmer gave an answer. “Economic growth is mission number one, the central most important mission. And therefore, if the answer is it helps with that mission, then the answer is yes. If the answer is it doesn’t, then the answer’s no.”

    Anyone can waffle on about raising Britain’s GDP, as if the fastest growth in the G7 — which Labour has pledged to deliver — can be spoken into existence. Just ask Liz Truss. Without an accompanying policy it is meaningless. But Starmer’s offer can now be summed up quite simply: more houses — lots of them. “I want Labour to be the party of home ownership,” he told The Observer. Shabana Mahmood, his campaign chief, revealed how to the BBC yesterday: “We’ve got to stop having a system where people can block housing in their area.”

  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Under Rishi Sunak, housing policy has become a nimby’s charter. Mandatory targets for councils have been scrapped, effectively freeing local authorities from any meaningful obligation to build at all. Planning law empowers the shires to say no to almost any development they please. One in five councils do not have a local development plan, and nor does England have a national plan. By the next general election, housebuilders fear, construction will have slowed to a low last seen in the aftermath of the financial crash: as few as 160,000 new homes a year. Sunak and Michael Gove, the housing secretary, have accepted this drag anchor on the economy as a price worth paying for quiescent backbenchers.
    “We have to change this,” Starmer says. “That will require us to be bold when it comes to things like planning.” But how bold? Labour will pledge to restore housebuilding targets and hand more power to local authorities; promise 70 per cent home ownership and hundreds of thousands of new council homes. Given the resistance of so many local authorities to development, that may sound like a contradiction in terms. But I’m told a Starmer government would wield both carrot and stick: councils would be made to work together to come up with plans for development at a regional level, spreading a burden few want to shoulder individually, with cash and infrastructure as the prize for new housing. (Bafflingly, they are under no obligation to work together now.) If proposed developments meet the standards set out in those local plans, they will be approved. So no longer would each town hall have to agree to what one senior Labour source calls “shitty speculative developments” to meet targets arbitrarily imposed upon them. But nor will they be allowed to opt out of building either.

    Starmer’s government would also look anew at the green belt, swathes of which — including a petrol station in Tottenham Hale, north London — are neither green nor pleasant. Those sites would be liberated. Not all politics is local, however. We can also expect to hear more about national projects, driven from the centre too: intensive development on the 50-mile Oxford-Cambridge Arc and a generation of new towns are all under discussion as Starmer’s aides work up plans to be announced at Labour conference in September.

    In 1945, Clement Attlee said a vote for Labour was a vote to “build the houses — quick!” Harold Wilson built 400,000 a year, a total not beaten since. Housing does not feature in Starmer’s five missions for government. But he knows it is the answer to all of them. Early in his leadership Starmer promised constructive opposition. That phrase is about to assume a new meaning entirely.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,481
    .
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    I don't think that's quite the usual style @Casino_Royale goes for.
    If that's what @MoonRabbit looks like, and she's wearing that, then woof-woof.
    No that’s an online model!

    I look like Liv Tyler and my thighs are much much fatter 😭
    Does your dad look like Steve?
    Liv Tyler has German ancestry, like my Dad, from Liv’s mothers side I think. But I get the look from my mothers ancestry which was Hong Kong and we think in China before that.

    Tbh I look just a bit like Liv Tyler, I might have over egged it on account of the number of times I’ve heard “you look like that elf in Lord of the rings.”
    Could they have meant Orlando Bloom? ;)
    Only when you've had a few too many and appear Legolas.
    Even though her dad wasn't with Aerosmith, he's still Marillion ?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,577
    Andy_JS said:

    Is Luca Brecel the first player from a non-English speaking (as first language) country to win the snooker world championship?

    Yes, he is. There have been Irishmen, Canadians, and Australians, but no non-English speakers.
    Ding got to the final a few years back but didn't win it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,501
    Dialup said:

    eek said:

    Dialup said:
    Desperate attempt to find something that sticks.

    And given the amount of effort they are spending looking trans / sex ed issues I have to ask is that really the best they can do to find things to attack Labour on.
    I find it curious the Sun didn't ask, do the issues make a difference to how you'd vote. Because my suggestion is they don't to enough people.
    I did have an ex-Tory today saying she'd like to vote for me, but what did I think about trans issues? I said I couldn't honestly say I gave them much thought, to which she said "Oh, fine, then I'll vote for you." I think that's where the wider public is, in fact - they will react against a militant policy either way, and are OK with Starmer or anyone else shrugging it off.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    edited May 2023
    carnforth said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well played Luca Brecel.

    Belgians, coming over here, winning our snooker! What was the point of Brexit!?!
    Quite exciting, isn't it? First time someone without English as a first language has won it. I genuinely wonder how aware Belgium is about this. I hope it gets the attention it deserves. He's a remarkable player and it would be a shame were it not as appreciated as it deserves to be.
    I wonder if we'll get any more Europeans involved as a result?
    Irishmen aside, I think Tony Drago (Malta) is the only famous one I can think of without looking it up.
    There have been a couple of Germans and a Swiss on Tour recently. And a Finn and a Norwegian (though they both grew up in UK). As well as a couple of Ukrainians.
    There are Austrians, French, Latvians, Hungarians and Moldovans playing high level amateur.
    It's difficult to make a living if you aren't UK based (or exceptionally good).
    Julien Leclerq is a much younger Belgian who has had a really good first year on the Tour.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,571
    Dialup said:

    Sir Keir Starmer gave a fascinating interview to The Economist a few days ago. No, wait, come back! For once it really is possible to pay that kind of compliment with a straight face. It took 4,926 words but the unthinkable has at last occurred: the Labour leader said something substantive about economic policy and his plan for growth.

    Writing on these pages last week, Janice Turner offered some sound but blindingly obvious advice to the leader of the opposition. So obvious, Blairites with his ear complain, that it is all too frequently forgotten by his shadow cabinet and strategists: “Labour’s sole task is to convince us that its economic plans are ambitious enough to pull us out of this morass.”
    And are they? Well, about that word “ambitious” . . . With no success stories of his own to tell, Greg Hands, the Conservative Party chairman, has taken to answering every question he faces on any subject with a wave of the letter left by Labour’s Liam Byrne in the Treasury nearly 13 years ago: “I’m afraid there is no money. Kind regards — and good luck!” The point of this campaigning by punchline, of course, is to stoke the fears of profligacy that swing voters still express — indeed, sometimes citing that very bon mot — in Labour’s focus groups.

    But to Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, Byrne’s words do not amount to the shortest suicide note in political history but a philosophy for government. Such is the reality of life under Reeves and her deputy, Pat McFadden — Starmer’s Mr Gradgrind — for shadow cabinet ministers who wish to spend significant sums on anything. There is no money. Can you tell us how you’d raise it instead? Bear in mind there’s only so many times we can promise to abolish non-dom status, VAT on private school fees only raises so much and we’ve pledged not to raise taxes on working people. Or capital gains tax. Kind regards — and good luck!

    If you're quoting from a paper or magazine could you please put the quote in " " or italics, and provide a link?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited May 2023
    Eabhal said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Based on intelligence info, Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut in last few months--80,000 wounded and 20,000 killed since December, NSC spokesman John Kirby says. Prigozhin's claim Wagner Group's had only 94 killed in action "is just a ludicrous claim."
    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1653093775944699905

    That's on a par with the entire 9 year long Soviet-Afghan War. A murderous level of incompetence by the Russian government and military, not forgetting of course their genocidal intent in the first place.
    Bakhmut's been a hell of a rope-a-dope by the Ukrainians.
    I'm surprised we don't have access to solid numbers on casualties/KIA. Would've thought it would be quite easy to work out for investigations teams at major media outfits.

    Do you think our MoD have a good picture? The Ukrainians themselves, or is it all just wildly more messy than I can imagine?
    The slides [in the recent US intelligence leak] give detailed DIA casualty assessments:
    Russia 35,500-43,000 KIA & 154,000-180,000 WIA (implies ~1:4 ratio)
    Ukraine: 15,500-17,500 KIA & 109,000-113,500 WIA (implies ~1:6 ratio)
    BUT they specify LOW CONFIDENCE in attrition rates for a variety of reasons incl. info ops
    .

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1644824879642886144

    Should add there are other very different figures available, not.just because of varying agendas.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,748
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
    I think you needed a win today.

    I can see you getting 3 more points, against Bournemouth in the last game, that's all.

    32 points won't be enough to stay up.
    Well. Yes. However Wolves seem to have gone on holiday.
    Brighton have a seriously gruelling schedule against almost all the top 4.
    Lot more confident after tonight. At least it was a performance.
    And at least it looks like we have a fit striker.
    Also. Leeds look comical.
    Brighton face Man Utd, Arsenal, City, Newcastle and Aston Villa

    A formidable end of season for them
    And us between the United and Arsenal bit. With us on a bit more rest. I'm hoping they'll throw everything at United in the hope of making Europe. Then rest a few for the big Arsenal game.
    It's the hope that's the problem.
    I hope you stay up
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,981

    Given how sensitive the GE result is to the outcome in Scottish seats, we could really do with some updated Scottish polling.

    Number of Scottish polls in which fieldwork started in the month in question:
    April 23: 1
    March 23: 9
    Feb 23: 5
    Jan 23: 3



    Why don’t you contribute to the Scot Goes Pop crowdfunder then?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,577
    carnforth said:

    Real income changes in selected countries:


    That's interesting. Presumably the French figure is down to energy prices being held down so successfully.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,312
    edited May 2023
    TimS said:

    Dialup said:

    eek said:

    Dialup said:
    Desperate attempt to find something that sticks.

    And given the amount of effort they are spending looking trans / sex ed issues I have to ask is that really the best they can do to find things to attack Labour on.
    I find it curious the Sun didn't ask, do the issues make a difference to how you'd vote. Because my suggestion is they don't to enough people.
    It seems a bit like an exercise in leading questions to me. A lot of them are Tory culture warrior equivalents of the Mirror asking people if they agree it’s important to have a strong NHS
    Although lurking in that absurd Sun poll which shows Sunak slaughtering Starmer (apparently) is the question:
    How well is the government handling the Small Boats issue?
    Well: 12%
    Badly: 77%.

    Given the weight Sunak has given to the issue, that's not so good, and probably more important than views on trans issues.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,312
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
    I think you needed a win today.

    I can see you getting 3 more points, against Bournemouth in the last game, that's all.

    32 points won't be enough to stay up.
    Well. Yes. However Wolves seem to have gone on holiday.
    Brighton have a seriously gruelling schedule against almost all the top 4.
    Lot more confident after tonight. At least it was a performance.
    And at least it looks like we have a fit striker.
    Also. Leeds look comical.
    Brighton face Man Utd, Arsenal, City, Newcastle and Aston Villa

    A formidable end of season for them
    And us between the United and Arsenal bit. With us on a bit more rest. I'm hoping they'll throw everything at United in the hope of making Europe. Then rest a few for the big Arsenal game.
    It's the hope that's the problem.
    Brighton rested a few (Caicedo, Mitoma, McAllister) for the weekend game against Wolves.
    And won 6-0.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    edited May 2023

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
    I think you needed a win today.

    I can see you getting 3 more points, against Bournemouth in the last game, that's all.

    32 points won't be enough to stay up.
    Well. Yes. However Wolves seem to have gone on holiday.
    Brighton have a seriously gruelling schedule against almost all the top 4.
    Lot more confident after tonight. At least it was a performance.
    And at least it looks like we have a fit striker.
    Also. Leeds look comical.
    Brighton face Man Utd, Arsenal, City, Newcastle and Aston Villa

    A formidable end of season for them
    And us between the United and Arsenal bit. With us on a bit more rest. I'm hoping they'll throw everything at United in the hope of making Europe. Then rest a few for the big Arsenal game.
    It's the hope that's the problem.
    I hope you stay up
    Thanks.
    That isn't a very common sentiment.
    I guess folk want us down because with a new stadium and decently run we'd be another threat to what is becoming an ever expanding big eight. Or nine.
    I'd put Newcastle and Villa in that group now.
    And West Ham have the potential.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,981

    This is the Scottish Parliament in session, or maybe not

    BBC News - Protests repeatedly halt first minister's questions
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65128937

    Got any more month- old news?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487

    TimS said:

    Dialup said:

    eek said:

    Dialup said:
    Desperate attempt to find something that sticks.

    And given the amount of effort they are spending looking trans / sex ed issues I have to ask is that really the best they can do to find things to attack Labour on.
    I find it curious the Sun didn't ask, do the issues make a difference to how you'd vote. Because my suggestion is they don't to enough people.
    It seems a bit like an exercise in leading questions to me. A lot of them are Tory culture warrior equivalents of the Mirror asking people if they agree it’s important to have a strong NHS
    Although lurking in that absurd Sun poll which shows Sunak slaughtering Starmer (apparently) is the question:
    How well is the government handling the Small Boats issue?
    Well: 12%
    Badly: 77%.

    Given the weight Sunak has given to the issue, that's not so good, and probably more important than views on trans issues.
    Not good at all, but the 77% contains both those who think Suella is the devil, and those who want to deport 'em all. I wonder what the breakdown is?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
    I think you needed a win today.

    I can see you getting 3 more points, against Bournemouth in the last game, that's all.

    32 points won't be enough to stay up.
    Well. Yes. However Wolves seem to have gone on holiday.
    Brighton have a seriously gruelling schedule against almost all the top 4.
    Lot more confident after tonight. At least it was a performance.
    And at least it looks like we have a fit striker.
    Also. Leeds look comical.
    Brighton face Man Utd, Arsenal, City, Newcastle and Aston Villa

    A formidable end of season for them
    And us between the United and Arsenal bit. With us on a bit more rest. I'm hoping they'll throw everything at United in the hope of making Europe. Then rest a few for the big Arsenal game.
    It's the hope that's the problem.
    Brighton rested a few (Caicedo, Mitoma, McAllister) for the weekend game against Wolves.
    And won 6-0.
    Well indeed. There is that.
    But Wolves are safe.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,091

    ydoethur said:

    This is going to be us in Trafalgar Square, in matching outfits.


    I don't think that's quite the usual style @Casino_Royale goes for.
    If that's what @MoonRabbit looks like, and she's wearing that, then woof-woof.
    No that’s an online model!

    I look like Liv Tyler and my thighs are much much fatter 😭
    Read that at first as "Liz Taylor"!
    Who?
    Gosh! You really are a young’un!

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,501
    stodge said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'd expect the Conservatives to reach 30% in NEV. Simply because Reform won't translate its poll rating into votes on the ground.

    I expect Reform vote to stay home where it doesn’t have an option, as well as a chunk of Conservative vote staying home too.

    Tories 22% in the NEV. so let’s see friday afternoon, not long to go.
    That would imply that the Conservatives will do 3% worse than in 1995.

    A year when the Conservatives lost councils like Fenland, Hertsmere, Dartford, Gravesham, to Labour. Nothing indicates to me that such a result is on the cards this time around, but we'll see.
    It’s been a while since we’ve been treated to HY’s explanation of why the Tories will gain seats?
    It looks as though the Conservatives will be close to their 2019 levels - the England split in tonight's R&W was Labour 44%, Conservative 29% Liberal Democrat 13% so a 14% swing from December 2019 which is pretty much where we were last week. The Scottish sub sample in tonight's poll may be of more interest to some.

    The LDs will also be close to 2019 which leaves Labour who are running much higher and how any form of tactical voting or local anti-Conservative agreement, pact or understanding will impact.

    In terms of actual votes cast last time, the Conservatives won 31.5%, Labour 26.5%, Liberal Democrats 16.8%. Green 9.2%, UKIP 4.5% and 11.5% went to other parties such as Residents Groups and Independents.

    These aren't quite the same seats as were contested last time but it's still a useful starting point.
    There's an interesting little twist in my patch (Waverley). As in 2019, we have multi-member wards (thus everyone has 2-3 votes) and no non-Tory party is putting up full slates, so there is a lot of crossover voting. In my 2-member ward when the 2019 candidates were 2*Con (incumbents), 1*LD and 1*Lab, my estimate is that last time I received the second vote from about half the LibDems (the others mostly just left their second vote unused), and the LibDem received around 2/3 of my voters, which proved enough to take both seats. If tactical voting is stronger now, then both these proportions should go up.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,629
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
    I think you needed a win today.

    I can see you getting 3 more points, against Bournemouth in the last game, that's all.

    32 points won't be enough to stay up.
    Well. Yes. However Wolves seem to have gone on holiday.
    Brighton have a seriously gruelling schedule against almost all the top 4.
    Lot more confident after tonight. At least it was a performance.
    And at least it looks like we have a fit striker.
    Also. Leeds look comical.
    Brighton face Man Utd, Arsenal, City, Newcastle and Aston Villa

    A formidable end of season for them
    And us between the United and Arsenal bit. With us on a bit more rest. I'm hoping they'll throw everything at United in the hope of making Europe. Then rest a few for the big Arsenal game.
    It's the hope that's the problem.
    I hope you stay up
    Thanks.
    That isn't a very common sentiment.
    I guess folk want us down because with a new stadium and decently run we'd be another threat to what is becoming an ever expanding big eight. Or nine.
    I'd put Newcastle and Villa in that group now.
    And West Ham have the potential.
    You will stay up. Southampton and Leeds are gone. The pressure will get to Forest. You will be ok - just!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,312
    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    Dialup said:

    eek said:

    Dialup said:
    Desperate attempt to find something that sticks.

    And given the amount of effort they are spending looking trans / sex ed issues I have to ask is that really the best they can do to find things to attack Labour on.
    I find it curious the Sun didn't ask, do the issues make a difference to how you'd vote. Because my suggestion is they don't to enough people.
    It seems a bit like an exercise in leading questions to me. A lot of them are Tory culture warrior equivalents of the Mirror asking people if they agree it’s important to have a strong NHS
    Although lurking in that absurd Sun poll which shows Sunak slaughtering Starmer (apparently) is the question:
    How well is the government handling the Small Boats issue?
    Well: 12%
    Badly: 77%.

    Given the weight Sunak has given to the issue, that's not so good, and probably more important than views on trans issues.
    Not good at all, but the 77% contains both those who think Suella is the devil, and those who want to deport 'em all. I wonder what the breakdown is?
    Fair point - but both the deport 'em all and the let 'em all in groups are united in thinking the policy isn't working. I'd guess about 50:50.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,872

    Leicester and Everton do West Ham a big favour :lol:

    I think on the BBC ticker it did indeed say, "Tonight, Leicester City and Everton played. West Ham won, and Leicester, Everton and Nottingham Forest lost."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,130
    edited May 2023

    stodge said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'd expect the Conservatives to reach 30% in NEV. Simply because Reform won't translate its poll rating into votes on the ground.

    I expect Reform vote to stay home where it doesn’t have an option, as well as a chunk of Conservative vote staying home too.

    Tories 22% in the NEV. so let’s see friday afternoon, not long to go.
    That would imply that the Conservatives will do 3% worse than in 1995.

    A year when the Conservatives lost councils like Fenland, Hertsmere, Dartford, Gravesham, to Labour. Nothing indicates to me that such a result is on the cards this time around, but we'll see.
    It’s been a while since we’ve been treated to HY’s explanation of why the Tories will gain seats?
    It looks as though the Conservatives will be close to their 2019 levels - the England split in tonight's R&W was Labour 44%, Conservative 29% Liberal Democrat 13% so a 14% swing from December 2019 which is pretty much where we were last week. The Scottish sub sample in tonight's poll may be of more interest to some.

    The LDs will also be close to 2019 which leaves Labour who are running much higher and how any form of tactical voting or local anti-Conservative agreement, pact or understanding will impact.

    In terms of actual votes cast last time, the Conservatives won 31.5%, Labour 26.5%, Liberal Democrats 16.8%. Green 9.2%, UKIP 4.5% and 11.5% went to other parties such as Residents Groups and Independents.

    These aren't quite the same seats as were contested last time but it's still a useful starting point.
    There's an interesting little twist in my patch (Waverley). As in 2019, we have multi-member wards (thus everyone has 2-3 votes) and no non-Tory party is putting up full slates, so there is a lot of crossover voting. In my 2-member ward when the 2019 candidates were 2*Con (incumbents), 1*LD and 1*Lab, my estimate is that last time I received the second vote from about half the LibDems (the others mostly just left their second vote unused), and the LibDem received around 2/3 of my voters, which proved enough to take both seats. If tactical voting is stronger now, then both these proportions should go up.
    Silly question really, but I'd be interested to know what percentage of people typically vote 1 Con, 1 Lab, 1 LD in 3 member wards where those parties are standing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,829
    Cookie said:

    carnforth said:

    Real income changes in selected countries:


    That's interesting. Presumably the French figure is down to energy prices being held down so successfully.
    It's partly that, and partly the fact that the French economy (despite massive disruption) has actually done pretty well this year. French composite PMI is pretty much "top of the class" in the G7 right now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,456

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
    I think you needed a win today.

    I can see you getting 3 more points, against Bournemouth in the last game, that's all.

    32 points won't be enough to stay up.
    Bournemouth are a form team now, so I wouldn't count on it. Wolves do seem on the beach, but on the other hand it is their last match of the season.

    I think it will most likely go to the last match of the season, except for Saints, who look down already. All the bottom 5 have tough fixtures, but none will lose them all.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    edited May 2023
    Course. The best 10 Dylan songs will be controversial. But. There's nowt after the 1981.
    At least Blowin in the Wind and Time's They are a- Changin aren't in there.

    https://singersroom.com/w5/best-bob-dylan-songs-of-all-time/

    Where is Not Dark Yet? Blind Willie McTell? Mississippi? Workingman's Blues #4? Shooting Star? Dignity?
    Etc.,etc.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,501
    edited May 2023
    Andy_JS said:



    Silly question really, but I'd be interested to know what percentage of people typically vote 1 Con, 1 Lab, 1 LD in 3 member wards where those parties are standing.

    My ward has now been merged into another (the home of Charterhouse school and in parts extremely posh) and has become a 3-member ward, so I'll potentially be able to tell you on Friday (I forget what the rule is about what you can say about the count - can you give guesstimates like that?). There are 3 Tory candidates and one each from LD, Lab (me) and Green. My guess is that the number of voters who mix votes as you say will be tiny, but there are always some votes that raise eyebrows. What's more common is not using all your votes - maybe because you know the reputation of one candidate but have never heard of the others.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,456

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
    I think you needed a win today.

    I can see you getting 3 more points, against Bournemouth in the last game, that's all.

    32 points won't be enough to stay up.
    Well. Yes. However Wolves seem to have gone on holiday.
    Brighton have a seriously gruelling schedule against almost all the top 4.
    Lot more confident after tonight. At least it was a performance.
    And at least it looks like we have a fit striker.
    Also. Leeds look comical.
    Brighton face Man Utd, Arsenal, City, Newcastle and Aston Villa

    A formidable end of season for them
    And us between the United and Arsenal bit. With us on a bit more rest. I'm hoping they'll throw everything at United in the hope of making Europe. Then rest a few for the big Arsenal game.
    It's the hope that's the problem.
    I hope you stay up
    Thanks.
    That isn't a very common sentiment.
    I guess folk want us down because with a new stadium and decently run we'd be another threat to what is becoming an ever expanding big eight. Or nine.
    I'd put Newcastle and Villa in that group now.
    And West Ham have the potential.
    You will stay up. Southampton and Leeds are gone. The pressure will get to Forest. You will be ok - just!
    Forest have good home form, so should get 3 points at least. If Leicester stay up, it will most likely be by goal difference.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,130
    Sean_F said:

    I'd expect the Conservatives to reach 30% in NEV. Simply because Reform won't translate its poll rating into votes on the ground.

    I tend to agree with this. Tories to get between 30% and 33% is my forecast.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,575
    A

    eek said:

    Dialup said:
    Desperate attempt to find something that sticks.

    And given the amount of effort they are spending looking trans / sex ed issues I have to ask is that really the best they can do to find things to attack Labour on.
    The most depressing thing about that poll is that a third of Brits think a women can have a penis.
    At least 1/3 of Britains don't think

    1) That pineapple on Pizza is a good idea
    2) Anyone named after a writing implement should be president of France
    3) Python is a great coding language
    4) Radiohead were a great band
    5) Piers Corbyn is other than the answer to one question

    Small mercies and all that.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
    I think you needed a win today.

    I can see you getting 3 more points, against Bournemouth in the last game, that's all.

    32 points won't be enough to stay up.
    Bournemouth are a form team now, so I wouldn't count on it. Wolves do seem on the beach, but on the other hand it is their last match of the season.

    I think it will most likely go to the last match of the season, except for Saints, who look down already. All the bottom 5 have tough fixtures, but none will lose them all.

    Bournemouth safe at Goodison on the final day when we need three can be in form all they like.
    There isn't anywhere more intimidating.
    Just hope we get to that.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,629
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Hope @TSE had separate bets on an EFC win and DCL first scorer.
    Bit curious. We played well. Probably should have won. Created more chances than in about the last six. Their goalie was superb.
    However. They missed a penalty.
    So. A lingering feeling we got away with it.

    Quite some cardio workout at that match with chances squandered at both ends. A draw no good for either of us.
    Au contraire.
    Damned sight better than a defeat.
    I think you needed a win today.

    I can see you getting 3 more points, against Bournemouth in the last game, that's all.

    32 points won't be enough to stay up.
    Well. Yes. However Wolves seem to have gone on holiday.
    Brighton have a seriously gruelling schedule against almost all the top 4.
    Lot more confident after tonight. At least it was a performance.
    And at least it looks like we have a fit striker.
    Also. Leeds look comical.
    Brighton face Man Utd, Arsenal, City, Newcastle and Aston Villa

    A formidable end of season for them
    And us between the United and Arsenal bit. With us on a bit more rest. I'm hoping they'll throw everything at United in the hope of making Europe. Then rest a few for the big Arsenal game.
    It's the hope that's the problem.
    I hope you stay up
    Thanks.
    That isn't a very common sentiment.
    I guess folk want us down because with a new stadium and decently run we'd be another threat to what is becoming an ever expanding big eight. Or nine.
    I'd put Newcastle and Villa in that group now.
    And West Ham have the potential.
    You will stay up. Southampton and Leeds are gone. The pressure will get to Forest. You will be ok - just!
    Forest have good home form, so should get 3 points at least. If Leicester stay up, it will most likely be by goal difference.
    Yes I see Forest have Southampton at home. They have to get 3 points from that. You clearly don't want that outcome!

    They will get nothing from their other games.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    The Chinese have returned to Bangkok
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,130

    Andy_JS said:



    Silly question really, but I'd be interested to know what percentage of people typically vote 1 Con, 1 Lab, 1 LD in 3 member wards where those parties are standing.

    My ward has now been merged into another (the home of Charterhouse school and in parts extremely posh) and has become a 3-member ward, so I'll potentially be able to tell you on Friday (I forget what the rule is about what you can say about the count - can you give guesstimates like that?). There are 3 Tory candidates and one each from LD, Lab (me) and Green. My guess is that the number of voters who mix votes as you say will be tiny, but there are always some votes that raise eyebrows. What's more common is not using all your votes - maybe because you know the reputation of one candidate but have never heard of the others.
    Thanks. It would be interesting to know, in an anorak-ish sort of way.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,292
    @hzeffman
    EXCL: Keir Starmer will abandon Labour’s commitment to abolish university tuition fees within weeks


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1653152666137010177
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561

    @hzeffman
    EXCL: Keir Starmer will abandon Labour’s commitment to abolish university tuition fees within weeks


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1653152666137010177

    Really bad move.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,575

    Andy_JS said:



    Silly question really, but I'd be interested to know what percentage of people typically vote 1 Con, 1 Lab, 1 LD in 3 member wards where those parties are standing.

    My ward has now been merged into another (the home of Charterhouse school and in parts extremely posh) and has become a 3-member ward, so I'll potentially be able to tell you on Friday (I forget what the rule is about what you can say about the count - can you give guesstimates like that?). There are 3 Tory candidates and one each from LD, Lab (me) and Green. My guess is that the number of voters who mix votes as you say will be tiny, but there are always some votes that raise eyebrows. What's more common is not using all your votes - maybe because you know the reputation of one candidate but have never heard of the others.
    Well, on your *reputation*, you should be getting about 99% of the vote.....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    edited May 2023
    dixiedean said:

    Course. The best 10 Dylan songs will be controversial. But. There's nowt after the 1981.
    At least Blowin in the Wind and Time's They are a- Changin aren't in there.

    https://singersroom.com/w5/best-bob-dylan-songs-of-all-time/

    Where is Not Dark Yet? Blind Willie McTell? Mississippi? Workingman's Blues #4? Shooting Star? Dignity?
    Etc.,etc.

    Just noticed "a Hard Rain's A Gonna Fall" suggested as a possible response to the Cuban Missile crisis.
    Written six months before.
    Nonsense analysis by someone who's never listened to the aged Zimmerman.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,788

    @hzeffman
    EXCL: Keir Starmer will abandon Labour’s commitment to abolish university tuition fees within weeks


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1653152666137010177

    Curious choice. I assumed no one would touch that area again. But if anyone can get away with annoying future students it'd be Labour.
This discussion has been closed.