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In local elections week R&W, has LAB edging up again – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,218
edited May 2023 in General
imageIn local elections week R&W, has LAB edging up again – politicalbetting.com

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Redfield Wilton poll today

    It seems everyone improves a little

    I expect a poor local election for the conservatives this week, but certainly Sunak’s personal ratings are continuing to improve as are Starmer’s.

    The Government’s net competency rating stands at -23% this week, eight points up from last Sunday. Altogether, 24% find the Government competent (+6), and 47% find the Government incompetent (-2).

    Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -5%, up one point from our poll last Sunday, and the highest net approval rating he has held since 3 January. Yesterday’s poll finds 35% approving of his overall job performance (+2) against 40% (+1) disapproving.

    Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +10%, up five points from last week. 39% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+5), while 29% disapprove (–).

    And finally, Keir Starmer (41%, +3) leads Rishi Sunak (37%, +3) by four points on the question of who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    I'd expect the Conservatives to reach 30% in NEV. Simply because Reform won't translate its poll rating into votes on the ground.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Sunak fans please explain.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    edited May 2023
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    It does include a humdinger of a Scottish sub sample.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It does include a humdinger of a Scottish sub sample.

    Lets wait for a real Scottish poll
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2023
    Starmer polls 4% below his party though, Sunak polls 9% above his party. Plenty of room for Rishi to close that voting intention gap then, especially in the election debates
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Nonsense

    I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,217
    HYUFD said:

    Starmer polls 4% below his party though, Sunak polls 9% above his party. Plenty of room for Rishi to close that voting intention gap then, especially in the election debates

    Arguably plenty of opportunity for Sunak to lose that advantage if he underwhelms in campaigning or starts to look like all the other Tories. And for Starmer to benefit from greater visibility.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,888
    (FPT Responding to a post pointing out the problem of Conservatives not being Conservative):

    As someone who is generally Tory (but not since Patersongate) it seems to me that those who want Real Conservative Conservatism have a politically significant job to do, which isn't being done.

    Banking Crisis+Brexit+ Covid +Ukraine Events have shifted the Overton window, sent SME through the roof, and left demands for costlier public services on every front.

    What is lacking (thank you Truss) is a coherent, costed, election-proof, sane, non-Unicorn medium term Proper Conservative plan from the Centre Right Policy Wonk Institute.

    I am not alone in longing to know what it would say. I have literals no idea. can anyone point me in the right direction. Until then I am voting for that well known One Nation Tory Sir Keir Starmer.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Fearless Prediction - more Keir Fear here.

    (As evidenced already below.)
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Rishi Sunak fans please explain
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Dialup said:

    Rishi Sunak fans please explain

    You need to keep up with the thread

    Read my first post
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Officer he's already dead!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Dialup said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Officer he's already dead!
    What on earth do you mean by that comment ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    As with Opinium yesterday, R&W has Starmer’s net favourability lead over Sunak increasing.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    PB topic of the day:

    Responsibility of Labour Party in general, and Keir Starmer in particular, for the Fall of Singapore.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    The interesting aspect in the council elections is how much if any tactical voting takes place as a means to oust the Tories .

    Hopefully a lot !
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Nonsense

    I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
    A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.

    So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,081
    Greetings from sunny Madeira. For the first time ever I will not be in the UK on local election polling day. Good job I have already cast my vote for the Lib Dems by post.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,401
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    PB topic of the day:

    Responsibility of Labour Party in general, and Keir Starmer in particular, for the Fall of Singapore.

    Not to mention, also for the Opium Wars. And the Gallipoli disaster.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Ed Davey fans please explain
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Nonsense

    I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
    A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.

    So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
    It is the same on best PM with both +3

    We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings

    Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Nonsense

    I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
    A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.

    So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
    Given MOE, increase of +1% is no increase at all, just as a drop of -1% would be no real decrease.

    Whereas given MOE, an increase of +5% really IS an increase; though perhaps not as much as that, but also possibly a bit more.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Dialup said:

    Ed Davey fans please explain

    At last. An original take.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    I feel an awful lot of similarity between GE19 for Labour and the Tories right about now. Here is how Jezza can still win!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    slade said:

    Greetings from sunny Madeira. For the first time ever I will not be in the UK on local election polling day. Good job I have already cast my vote for the Lib Dems by post.

    Will it piss off the locals, if you order a port? OR a Bud Lite?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    PB topic of the day:

    Responsibility of Labour Party in general, and Keir Starmer in particular, for the Fall of Singapore.

    Couple of short but fairly good articles (which strangely omit Starmer’s part in it).
    https://fulcrum.sg/fall-of-singapore-80-years-on-lessons-transcend-time-and-place/

    https://academic.oup.com/book/32546/chapter/270333181
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,840
    algarkirk said:

    (FPT Responding to a post pointing out the problem of Conservatives not being Conservative):

    As someone who is generally Tory (but not since Patersongate) it seems to me that those who want Real Conservative Conservatism have a politically significant job to do, which isn't being done.

    Banking Crisis+Brexit+ Covid +Ukraine Events have shifted the Overton window, sent SME through the roof, and left demands for costlier public services on every front.

    What is lacking (thank you Truss) is a coherent, costed, election-proof, sane, non-Unicorn medium term Proper Conservative plan from the Centre Right Policy Wonk Institute.

    I am not alone in longing to know what it would say. I have literals no idea. can anyone point me in the right direction. Until then I am voting for that well known One Nation Tory Sir Keir Starmer.

    There's no low-tax solution to a society full of old people that need looking after, and nobody will dare to prioritise productivity and consumption over the inflation and preservation of asset wealth, because there are way too many rich and very noisy voters with a vested interest in the latter.

    What now follows is two or three more decades of the fag end of the Thatcherite consensus, followed by revenge socialism once there are too few minted heirs left to outvote the masses of the dirt poor. Adam Smith might come back into fashion circa 2060.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,303
    Screaming Lord Sutch fans, please explain.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Nonsense

    I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
    A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.

    So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
    It is the same on best PM with both +3

    We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings

    Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
    On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.

    You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Nonsense

    I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
    A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.

    So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
    It is the same on best PM with both +3

    We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings

    Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
    On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.

    You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
    999 I would like to report a murder
  • OldBasingOldBasing Posts: 173
    Lol. PB Tories keep telling us there will be swingback, except in Opinium and RW it's been to Labour.... Ominous for the Conservatives ahead of the local elections, but RW do seem like quite a swingy pollster and untested in UK General Elections, so not sure how much weight to give to their findings. Stick it in the averages I guess as another data point.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Nonsense

    I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
    A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.

    So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
    It is the same on best PM with both +3

    We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings

    Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
    On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.

    You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
    I am not disputing that, but you just cannot seem to come to terms with Sunak's ratings which continue to improve

    The real problem for the conservatives would be a fall in Sunak's personal ratings and at present that is not happening
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Dialup said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Nonsense

    I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
    A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.

    So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
    It is the same on best PM with both +3

    We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings

    Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
    On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.

    You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
    999 I would like to report a murder
    What is wrong with you
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Nonsense

    I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
    A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.

    So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
    It is the same on best PM with both +3

    We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings

    Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
    On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.

    You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
    I am not disputing that, but you just cannot seem to come to terms with Sunak's ratings which continue to improve

    The real problem for the conservatives would be a fall in Sunak's personal ratings and at present that is not happening
    You seem oblivious to the lead widening.

    It’s worse for Sunak if his ratings go up 1 and Starmer’s go up by 5 than if Sunak’s ratings go down by 1 and Starmer’s go down by say 3 as the lead narrows.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    On topic as I said in yesterday’s header, Sunak’s rating ain’t worth a pitcher of warm piss if the Tory ratings continue to be so dire.

    Recent increase in costs won’t help.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Dialup said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Nonsense

    I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
    A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.

    So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
    It is the same on best PM with both +3

    We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings

    Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
    On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.

    You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
    999 I would like to report a murder
    What is wrong with you
    He's quoting memes again -

    https://tenor.com/view/hello-i-would-like-to-report-a-murder-barbara-hill-neighbours-theres-been-a-murder-someone-just-got-murdered-gif-20976504
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    edited May 2023
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Nonsense

    I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
    A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.

    So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
    It is the same on best PM with both +3

    We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings

    Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
    On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.

    You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
    I am not disputing that, but you just cannot seem to come to terms with Sunak's ratings which continue to improve

    The real problem for the conservatives would be a fall in Sunak's personal ratings and at present that is not happening
    You seem oblivious to the lead widening.

    It’s worse for Sunak if his ratings go up 1 and Starmer’s go up by 5 than if Sunak’s ratings go down by 1 and Starmer’s go down by say 3 as the lead narrows.
    I accept that but you do not seem tto understand that for the conservatives to have any chance of recovery Sunak's own personal ratings need to rise which the trend suggest they are

    At no time have I suggested that the conservatives will have good local but certainly Sunak is needed as the leader for the next GE

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,147
    Dialup said:

    Ed Davey fans please explain

    LD up too!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156
    BJO fans please explain!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Nonsense

    I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
    A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.

    So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
    It is the same on best PM with both +3

    We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings

    Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
    On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.

    You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
    I am not disputing that, but you just cannot seem to come to terms with Sunak's ratings which continue to improve

    The real problem for the conservatives would be a fall in Sunak's personal ratings and at present that is not happening
    You seem oblivious to the lead widening.

    It’s worse for Sunak if his ratings go up 1 and Starmer’s go up by 5 than if Sunak’s ratings go down by 1 and Starmer’s go down by say 3 as the lead narrows.
    I accept that but you do not seem tto understand that for the conservatives to have any chance of recovery Sunak's own personal ratings need to rise which the trend suggest they are

    At no time have I suggested that the conservatives will have good local but certainly Sunak is needed as the leader for the next GE

    Sunak’s ratings don’t have to improve.

    He has to reduce Starmer’s lead.

    That can be achieved through negative narrowing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    PB topic of the day:

    Responsibility of Labour Party in general, and Keir Starmer in particular, for the Fall of Singapore.

    Couple of short but fairly good articles (which strangely omit Starmer’s part in it).
    https://fulcrum.sg/fall-of-singapore-80-years-on-lessons-transcend-time-and-place/

    https://academic.oup.com/book/32546/chapter/270333181
    My own view is, that it was the thought that their grandchildren might vote for Keir Starmer sometime in the next century, which fatally sapped the morale of HM forces in Singapore 1940.
    On a careful rereading of those articles, I agree that’s the unspoken, but implicit message.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    FPT - a few stand-up comedians are moving into becoming amateur military historians.

    Al Murray, but also Joe Thomas has had a crack recently.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Seems to me that BigG and TSE both making valid, albeit divergent, points re: polling?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic as I said in yesterday’s header, Sunak’s rating ain’t worth a pitcher of warm piss if the Tory ratings continue to be so dire.

    Recent increase in costs won’t help.

    But ‘Vote Conservative’ is trending on Twitter.
    https://twitter.com/Mattladd1/status/1653076246723543040
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    DougSeal said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Dialup said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Officer he's already dead!
    What on earth do you mean by that comment ?
    It comes from a Meme, "Stop, he's already dead" that I think Dialup slightly misquoted.

    The quote comes from The Simpsons. Specifically, an episode entitled “Homie the Clown.” The episode has Homer Simpson who, because of his uncanny likeness to Krusty the Clown, becomes a stand in for the clown. Homer gets sent to events that Krusty thinks are too demeaning to him. The quote comes from the middle of the episode where Homer is sent in Krusty stead at one of the Krusty Burger openings. There is supposed to be a skit where the Krusty Burglar (a pastiche of the McDonalds Hamburglar) is stealing burgers. However, Homer thinks that the Krusty Burlar is real and proceeds to pummel the diminutive costumed individual in front of of a crowd of children, one of which delivers the quote "Stop, he's already dead".

    That has become a meme generally posted on discussion boards when someone appears to have lost an argument already, signifying that the victorious poster should cease inflicting blows on the defeated.

    You're welcome.
    Thanks for that, but in this case I do not accept the meme and will continue to make my case that Sunak needs his personal ratings to continue the rising tend for the conservatives to mitigate GE 24
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunak fans please explain.

    See my first post
    Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
    Nonsense

    I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
    A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.

    So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
    It is the same on best PM with both +3

    We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings

    Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
    On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.

    You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
    I am not disputing that, but you just cannot seem to come to terms with Sunak's ratings which continue to improve

    The real problem for the conservatives would be a fall in Sunak's personal ratings and at present that is not happening
    You seem oblivious to the lead widening.

    It’s worse for Sunak if his ratings go up 1 and Starmer’s go up by 5 than if Sunak’s ratings go down by 1 and Starmer’s go down by say 3 as the lead narrows.
    I accept that but you do not seem tto understand that for the conservatives to have any chance of recovery Sunak's own personal ratings need to rise which the trend suggest they are

    At no time have I suggested that the conservatives will have good local but certainly Sunak is needed as the leader for the next GE

    Sunak’s ratings don’t have to improve.

    He has to reduce Starmer’s lead.

    That can be achieved through negative narrowing.
    Of course, we do not disagree on that
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2023
    I love the way that, on the top chart, Labour's polling plummets immediately after "Starmer announces 'five missions' for a Labour government".
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited May 2023
    Deleted. Mean meme.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I love the way that, on the top chart, Labour's polling plummets immediately after "Starmer announces 'five missions' for a Labour government".

    My favourite is pollsters complaining that the Liz Truss premiership was so short they cannot put all the events on the charts.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    edited May 2023
    Sean_F said:

    I'd expect the Conservatives to reach 30% in NEV. Simply because Reform won't translate its poll rating into votes on the ground.

    Reform has no presence down here in the South Hams. Not been mentioned once on the doorsteps.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Still it’s not all bad for the Tories.

    Truss or Johnson could make a comeback before the election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'd expect the Conservatives to reach 30% in NEV. Simply because Reform won't translate its poll rating into votes on the ground.

    Reform has no presence down here in the South Hams. Not been mentioned once on the doorsteps.
    Not even electoral reform?
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Still it’s not all bad for the Tories.

    Truss or Johnson could make a comeback before the election.

    I do not accept the meme
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,424
    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - a few stand-up comedians are moving into becoming amateur military historians.

    Al Murray, but also Joe Thomas has had a crack recently.

    Al Murray stared to ease out of the Pub Landlord some years back: he did a film review/doc on the BBC, then did a Tank Museum Top 10 Tanks on YouTube, then the podcast with James Holland, some other stuff, and he had a book ("Command") which I'll get when it comes out in paperback. I can't comment on Joe Thomas because I don't know enough about him. Chris Barrie (Rimmer in Red Dwarf) also did similar when his big machine series did the CVR(T) family. I think basically some acts have limited lifespans and once you get the contacts you can do celeb-fronted docs as much as you like. If you can also research and write well, so much the better.

    https://www.waterstones.com/book/command/al-murray/9781472284594
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Dialup said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Still it’s not all bad for the Tories.

    Truss or Johnson could make a comeback before the election.

    I do not accept the meme
    Ream the meme!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,424
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic as I said in yesterday’s header, Sunak’s rating ain’t worth a pitcher of warm piss if the Tory ratings continue to be so dire.

    Recent increase in costs won’t help.

    But ‘Vote Conservative’ is trending on Twitter.
    https://twitter.com/Mattladd1/status/1653076246723543040
    Well that's convinced me and no mistake... :smiley:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I love the way that, on the top chart, Labour's polling plummets immediately after "Starmer announces 'five missions' for a Labour government".

    To govern is to choose.

    To choose is box office poison.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'd expect the Conservatives to reach 30% in NEV. Simply because Reform won't translate its poll rating into votes on the ground.

    Reform has no presence down here in the South Hams. Not been mentioned once on the doorsteps.
    I'm not sure Reform is really serious at any level.

    It's a NOTA or Conservative on strike vote.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Nigelb said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I love the way that, on the top chart, Labour's polling plummets immediately after "Starmer announces 'five missions' for a Labour government".

    To govern is to choose.

    To choose is box office poison.
    In general, yes, but since no-one can remember what the 'five missions' are, it's probably not the explanation in this case.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic as I said in yesterday’s header, Sunak’s rating ain’t worth a pitcher of warm piss if the Tory ratings continue to be so dire.

    Recent increase in costs won’t help.

    But ‘Vote Conservative’ is trending on Twitter.
    https://twitter.com/Mattladd1/status/1653076246723543040
    Well that's convinced me and no mistake... :smiley:
    This is literally Labour GE19 all over again
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    I’ve gone balls deep on Everton to win tonight and DCL as FGS.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    So Starmer doing well and widening the Labour lead after those posters.

    When will we see the terrible backlash against Starmer for those vile posters?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    I think tactically, it's far more important to have inflation and interest rates coming down by the election.

    Forget the penny off income tax, which is party management think not an electoral thing. It'd be better to start raising the thresholds again, or knocking it off energy bills, or he might even do something radical like abolishing inheritance tax.

    Outside that, any money should be directed to clearing the backlog of NHS waiting lists - not that there will be much time to make an impact, and money is only one constraint (staff, facilities, social care for discharge etc)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569
    Casino_Royale said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'd expect the Conservatives to reach 30% in NEV. Simply because Reform won't translate its poll rating into votes on the ground.

    Reform has no presence down here in the South Hams. Not been mentioned once on the doorsteps.
    I'm not sure Reform is really serious at any level.

    It's a NOTA or Conservative on strike vote.
    Yes, same here, though we do have one RefUK candidate. They need Farage at the top to give them real substance.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,647
    Sean_F said:

    I'd expect the Conservatives to reach 30% in NEV. Simply because Reform won't translate its poll rating into votes on the ground.

    I expect Reform vote to stay home where it doesn’t have an option, as well as a chunk of Conservative vote staying home too.

    Tories 22% in the NEV. so let’s see friday afternoon, not long to go.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    This is a bit Norman Bates/Psycho.

    King to be dressed in floor length golden robes worn by late Queen at ceremony

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1653098551507836935
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    slade said:

    Greetings from sunny Madeira. For the first time ever I will not be in the UK on local election polling day. Good job I have already cast my vote for the Lib Dems by post.

    Don't say that, the next move will be to those will be abroad on election day - probably filthy remainers anyway.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is a bit Norman Bates/Psycho.

    King to be dressed in floor length golden robes worn by late Queen at ceremony

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1653098551507836935

    And Kings before her…
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    williamglenn said:

    Screaming Lord Sutch fans, please explain.

    Easy - Count Binface is better than the OMRLP.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    Off topic but the Epstein fun and games continue

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/jeffrey-epstein-calendar-cia-director-goldman-sachs-noam-chomsky-c9f6a3ff?st=adtoi0b35u9a985&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,303
    https://www.kyivpost.com/post/16484

    China, India, Brazil and several other states close to Russia have unexpectedly voted for a UN Resolution which strongly censures Moscow's criminal behavior
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited May 2023
    So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is a bit Norman Bates/Psycho.

    King to be dressed in floor length golden robes worn by late Queen at ceremony

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1653098551507836935

    Cross-dressing has a very long history.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,780
    WhisperingOracle said:

    So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?

    The latter ones will be kilt by @HYUFD
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,401
    WhisperingOracle said:

    So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?

    Or no pants at all, which was the point in the film.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Given how sensitive the GE result is to the outcome in Scottish seats, we could really do with some updated Scottish polling.

    Number of Scottish polls in which fieldwork started in the month in question:
    April 23: 1
    March 23: 9
    Feb 23: 5
    Jan 23: 3



  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    Carnyx said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?

    Or no pants at all, which was the point in the film.
    Indeed. ;.) I seem to remember a part of the film where the pants were exhibited as an insult to the British, though, n'est-ce-pas ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,147
    Big match tonight.

    Lots of nerves tonight as lower as good as down, winner fights another day.

    Is Dyche the new Percival?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,424
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is a bit Norman Bates/Psycho.

    King to be dressed in floor length golden robes worn by late Queen at ceremony

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1653098551507836935

    I am pretty sure she's not buried in the cellar on a swively chair and a suspended lightbulb... 😀
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Oh dear. Apple have pushed out a “rapid security update” for iPhones and iPads that completely refuses to install for anyone.

    I’m assuming a zero day.

    Not good.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,780
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Carnyx said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?

    Or no pants at all, which was the point in the film.
    Indeed. ;.) I seem to remember a part of the film where the pants were exhibited as an insult to the British, though, n'est-ce-pas ?
    Infamously taken from a soldier by a pair of nickers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,177
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Carnyx said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?

    Or no pants at all, which was the point in the film.
    Indeed. ;.) I seem to remember a part of the film where the pants were exhibited as an insult to the British, though, n'est-ce-pas ?
    No, the regiment had gone soft and started wearing nether garments under their kilts. This caused the Burpas to be revolting, due to the collapse in their fear of the British.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is a bit Norman Bates/Psycho.

    King to be dressed in floor length golden robes worn by late Queen at ceremony

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1653098551507836935

    Cross-dressing has a very long history.
    It doesn't surprise me.

    I'm not sure a military uniform really works for the sort of ceremony they're planning.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,640
    Foxy said:

    Big match tonight.

    Lots of nerves tonight as lower as good as down, winner fights another day.

    Is Dyche the new Percival?

    I expect Everton and Leicester to stay up.

    Leeds, Southampton and Forest to go down BUT West Ham will need something from their 'easier' games at the end of the season.

    Everyone else safe. 37 points will be enough.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    NickPalmer said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'd expect the Conservatives to reach 30% in NEV. Simply because Reform won't translate its poll rating into votes on the ground.

    Reform has no presence down here in the South Hams. Not been mentioned once on the doorsteps.
    I'm not sure Reform is really serious at any level.

    It's a NOTA or Conservative on strike vote.
    Yes, same here, though we do have one RefUK candidate. They need Farage at the top to give them real substance.
    By contrast, in the local elections Reform are standing in 9 of the 20 wards in Walsall.

    I think their potential to hurt the Conservatives in a GE is being underestimated. They (as the Brexit Party) contested Labour-held seats in 2019, but stood down tactically to help the Conservatives in all the Conservative seats. That's not their intention this time around.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited May 2023
    What are those robes made from ? From the pictures of the last coronation, the TV pictures gave an impression of velvet or silk. Gliding on velvet or silk towards the throne, like a young mermaid.

    With Charles it will be more like the stately procession of the older organic farmer, looking curious and inquisitive about his villagers and citizens, I expect.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is a bit Norman Bates/Psycho.

    King to be dressed in floor length golden robes worn by late Queen at ceremony

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1653098551507836935

    Cross-dressing has a very long history.
    PRESS RELEASE - Tallahassee - Gov. Ron DeSantis issues statement, that broadcasts of drag show scheduled for this weekend, under the guise of royal coronation, will be banned in State of Florida by gubernatorial executive order.

    "No innocent child, grandmother, jack-leg preacher, land pirate or political contributor is going to be subjected to such trans-woke filth. Not on MY watch, not in MY state.

    "As for you, Chuckey, put on some pants and take off the muu-muu. And tell your friend Mickey to [inaudible]."
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Foxy said:

    Big match tonight.

    Lots of nerves tonight as lower as good as down, winner fights another day.

    Is Dyche the new Percival?

    The Wolves are supporting the Foxes. If Everton fail to win, they need to win 3 of their last 4 to catch us even if we lose every one of our last 4 games (although going on Saturday's performance the latter is a distinct possibility.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    Based on intelligence info, Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut in last few months--80,000 wounded and 20,000 killed since December, NSC spokesman John Kirby says. Prigozhin's claim Wagner Group's had only 94 killed in action "is just a ludicrous claim."
    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1653093775944699905
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,069
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'd expect the Conservatives to reach 30% in NEV. Simply because Reform won't translate its poll rating into votes on the ground.

    Reform has no presence down here in the South Hams. Not been mentioned once on the doorsteps.
    I'm not sure Reform is really serious at any level.

    It's a NOTA or Conservative on strike vote.
    Yes, same here, though we do have one RefUK candidate. They need Farage at the top to give them real substance.
    By contrast, in the local elections Reform are standing in 9 of the 20 wards in Walsall.

    I think their potential to hurt the Conservatives in a GE is being underestimated. They (as the Brexit Party) contested Labour-held seats in 2019, but stood down tactically to help the Conservatives in all the Conservative seats. That's not their intention this time around.
    For what it's worth, Tice has said they're going to stand in all the seats at the GE except in N.Ireland.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/04/reform-uk-field-candidate-against-every-tory-next-election-richard-tice
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    Malmesbury said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Carnyx said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?

    Or no pants at all, which was the point in the film.
    Indeed. ;.) I seem to remember a part of the film where the pants were exhibited as an insult to the British, though, n'est-ce-pas ?
    No, the regiment had gone soft and started wearing nether garments under their kilts. This caused the Burpas to be revolting, due to the collapse in their fear of the British.

    Aha ! Case solved.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    Satan recognises school hours ?

    Federal judge rules Pennsylvania school district must allow After School Satan Club
    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3981851-federal-judge-rules-pennsylvania-school-district-must-allow-after-school-satan-club/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,401
    Malmesbury said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Carnyx said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?

    Or no pants at all, which was the point in the film.
    Indeed. ;.) I seem to remember a part of the film where the pants were exhibited as an insult to the British, though, n'est-ce-pas ?
    No, the regiment had gone soft and started wearing nether garments under their kilts. This caused the Burpas to be revolting, due to the collapse in their fear of the British.

    Ah, yes, and the removal of said garments restored the Imperial equilibrium. Even if the Gateway to India looked suspiciously like a farm track in Wales (which indeed it was).
This discussion has been closed.