I expect a poor local election for the conservatives this week, but certainly Sunak’s personal ratings are continuing to improve as are Starmer’s.
The Government’s net competency rating stands at -23% this week, eight points up from last Sunday. Altogether, 24% find the Government competent (+6), and 47% find the Government incompetent (-2).
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -5%, up one point from our poll last Sunday, and the highest net approval rating he has held since 3 January. Yesterday’s poll finds 35% approving of his overall job performance (+2) against 40% (+1) disapproving.
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +10%, up five points from last week. 39% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+5), while 29% disapprove (–).
And finally, Keir Starmer (41%, +3) leads Rishi Sunak (37%, +3) by four points on the question of who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.
Starmer polls 4% below his party though, Sunak polls 9% above his party. Plenty of room for Rishi to close that voting intention gap then, especially in the election debates
Starmer polls 4% below his party though, Sunak polls 9% above his party. Plenty of room for Rishi to close that voting intention gap then, especially in the election debates
Arguably plenty of opportunity for Sunak to lose that advantage if he underwhelms in campaigning or starts to look like all the other Tories. And for Starmer to benefit from greater visibility.
(FPT Responding to a post pointing out the problem of Conservatives not being Conservative):
As someone who is generally Tory (but not since Patersongate) it seems to me that those who want Real Conservative Conservatism have a politically significant job to do, which isn't being done.
Banking Crisis+Brexit+ Covid +Ukraine Events have shifted the Overton window, sent SME through the roof, and left demands for costlier public services on every front.
What is lacking (thank you Truss) is a coherent, costed, election-proof, sane, non-Unicorn medium term Proper Conservative plan from the Centre Right Policy Wonk Institute.
I am not alone in longing to know what it would say. I have literals no idea. can anyone point me in the right direction. Until then I am voting for that well known One Nation Tory Sir Keir Starmer.
Greetings from sunny Madeira. For the first time ever I will not be in the UK on local election polling day. Good job I have already cast my vote for the Lib Dems by post.
Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
Nonsense
I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.
So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
It is the same on best PM with both +3
We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings
Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
Greetings from sunny Madeira. For the first time ever I will not be in the UK on local election polling day. Good job I have already cast my vote for the Lib Dems by post.
Will it piss off the locals, if you order a port? OR a Bud Lite?
(FPT Responding to a post pointing out the problem of Conservatives not being Conservative):
As someone who is generally Tory (but not since Patersongate) it seems to me that those who want Real Conservative Conservatism have a politically significant job to do, which isn't being done.
Banking Crisis+Brexit+ Covid +Ukraine Events have shifted the Overton window, sent SME through the roof, and left demands for costlier public services on every front.
What is lacking (thank you Truss) is a coherent, costed, election-proof, sane, non-Unicorn medium term Proper Conservative plan from the Centre Right Policy Wonk Institute.
I am not alone in longing to know what it would say. I have literals no idea. can anyone point me in the right direction. Until then I am voting for that well known One Nation Tory Sir Keir Starmer.
There's no low-tax solution to a society full of old people that need looking after, and nobody will dare to prioritise productivity and consumption over the inflation and preservation of asset wealth, because there are way too many rich and very noisy voters with a vested interest in the latter.
What now follows is two or three more decades of the fag end of the Thatcherite consensus, followed by revenge socialism once there are too few minted heirs left to outvote the masses of the dirt poor. Adam Smith might come back into fashion circa 2060.
My own view is, that it was the thought that their grandchildren might vote for Keir Starmer sometime in the next century, which fatally sapped the morale of HM forces in Singapore 1940.
Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
Nonsense
I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.
So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
It is the same on best PM with both +3
We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings
Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.
You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
Nonsense
I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.
So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
It is the same on best PM with both +3
We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings
Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.
You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
Lol. PB Tories keep telling us there will be swingback, except in Opinium and RW it's been to Labour.... Ominous for the Conservatives ahead of the local elections, but RW do seem like quite a swingy pollster and untested in UK General Elections, so not sure how much weight to give to their findings. Stick it in the averages I guess as another data point.
Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
Nonsense
I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.
So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
It is the same on best PM with both +3
We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings
Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.
You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
I am not disputing that, but you just cannot seem to come to terms with Sunak's ratings which continue to improve
The real problem for the conservatives would be a fall in Sunak's personal ratings and at present that is not happening
Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
Nonsense
I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.
So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
It is the same on best PM with both +3
We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings
Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.
You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
Nonsense
I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.
So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
It is the same on best PM with both +3
We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings
Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.
You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
I am not disputing that, but you just cannot seem to come to terms with Sunak's ratings which continue to improve
The real problem for the conservatives would be a fall in Sunak's personal ratings and at present that is not happening
You seem oblivious to the lead widening.
It’s worse for Sunak if his ratings go up 1 and Starmer’s go up by 5 than if Sunak’s ratings go down by 1 and Starmer’s go down by say 3 as the lead narrows.
Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
Officer he's already dead!
What on earth do you mean by that comment ?
It comes from a Meme, "Stop, he's already dead" that I think Dialup slightly misquoted.
The quote comes from The Simpsons. Specifically, an episode entitled “Homie the Clown.” The episode has Homer Simpson who, because of his uncanny likeness to Krusty the Clown, becomes a stand in for the clown. Homer gets sent to events that Krusty thinks are too demeaning to him. The quote comes from the middle of the episode where Homer is sent in Krusty stead at one of the Krusty Burger openings. There is supposed to be a skit where the Krusty Burglar (a pastiche of the McDonalds Hamburglar) is stealing burgers. However, Homer thinks that the Krusty Burlar is real and proceeds to pummel the diminutive costumed individual in front of of a crowd of children, one of which delivers the quote "Stop, he's already dead".
That has become a meme generally posted on discussion boards when someone appears to have lost an argument already, signifying that the victorious poster should cease inflicting blows on the defeated.
Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
Nonsense
I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.
So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
It is the same on best PM with both +3
We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings
Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.
You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
Nonsense
I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.
So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
It is the same on best PM with both +3
We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings
Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.
You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
I am not disputing that, but you just cannot seem to come to terms with Sunak's ratings which continue to improve
The real problem for the conservatives would be a fall in Sunak's personal ratings and at present that is not happening
You seem oblivious to the lead widening.
It’s worse for Sunak if his ratings go up 1 and Starmer’s go up by 5 than if Sunak’s ratings go down by 1 and Starmer’s go down by say 3 as the lead narrows.
I accept that but you do not seem tto understand that for the conservatives to have any chance of recovery Sunak's own personal ratings need to rise which the trend suggest they are
At no time have I suggested that the conservatives will have good local but certainly Sunak is needed as the leader for the next GE
Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
Nonsense
I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.
So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
It is the same on best PM with both +3
We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings
Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.
You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
I am not disputing that, but you just cannot seem to come to terms with Sunak's ratings which continue to improve
The real problem for the conservatives would be a fall in Sunak's personal ratings and at present that is not happening
You seem oblivious to the lead widening.
It’s worse for Sunak if his ratings go up 1 and Starmer’s go up by 5 than if Sunak’s ratings go down by 1 and Starmer’s go down by say 3 as the lead narrows.
I accept that but you do not seem tto understand that for the conservatives to have any chance of recovery Sunak's own personal ratings need to rise which the trend suggest they are
At no time have I suggested that the conservatives will have good local but certainly Sunak is needed as the leader for the next GE
My own view is, that it was the thought that their grandchildren might vote for Keir Starmer sometime in the next century, which fatally sapped the morale of HM forces in Singapore 1940.
On a careful rereading of those articles, I agree that’s the unspoken, but implicit message.
Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
Officer he's already dead!
What on earth do you mean by that comment ?
It comes from a Meme, "Stop, he's already dead" that I think Dialup slightly misquoted.
The quote comes from The Simpsons. Specifically, an episode entitled “Homie the Clown.” The episode has Homer Simpson who, because of his uncanny likeness to Krusty the Clown, becomes a stand in for the clown. Homer gets sent to events that Krusty thinks are too demeaning to him. The quote comes from the middle of the episode where Homer is sent in Krusty stead at one of the Krusty Burger openings. There is supposed to be a skit where the Krusty Burglar (a pastiche of the McDonalds Hamburglar) is stealing burgers. However, Homer thinks that the Krusty Burlar is real and proceeds to pummel the diminutive costumed individual in front of of a crowd of children, one of which delivers the quote "Stop, he's already dead".
That has become a meme generally posted on discussion boards when someone appears to have lost an argument already, signifying that the victorious poster should cease inflicting blows on the defeated.
You're welcome.
Thanks for that, but in this case I do not accept the meme and will continue to make my case that Sunak needs his personal ratings to continue the rising tend for the conservatives to mitigate GE 24
Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
Officer he's already dead!
What on earth do you mean by that comment ?
It comes from a Meme, "Stop, he's already dead" that I think Dialup slightly misquoted.
The quote comes from The Simpsons. Specifically, an episode entitled “Homie the Clown.” The episode has Homer Simpson who, because of his uncanny likeness to Krusty the Clown, becomes a stand in for the clown. Homer gets sent to events that Krusty thinks are too demeaning to him. The quote comes from the middle of the episode where Homer is sent in Krusty stead at one of the Krusty Burger openings. There is supposed to be a skit where the Krusty Burglar (a pastiche of the McDonalds Hamburglar) is stealing burgers. However, Homer thinks that the Krusty Burlar is real and proceeds to pummel the diminutive costumed individual in front of of a crowd of children, one of which delivers the quote "Stop, he's already dead".
That has become a meme generally posted on discussion boards when someone appears to have lost an argument already, signifying that the victorious poster should cease inflicting blows on the defeated.
You're welcome.
Thanks for that, but in this case I do not accept the meme…
“I do not accept this meme”, in fairness, ought to become one in its own right.
Yes I saw how you spun a 1% improvement for Sunak and a 5% increase for Starmer as essentially the same.
Nonsense
I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
A 1% increase is within the MOE, a 5% increase is outside the MOE.
So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
It is the same on best PM with both +3
We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings
Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
On approvals it shows Starmer’s lead widening.
You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
I am not disputing that, but you just cannot seem to come to terms with Sunak's ratings which continue to improve
The real problem for the conservatives would be a fall in Sunak's personal ratings and at present that is not happening
You seem oblivious to the lead widening.
It’s worse for Sunak if his ratings go up 1 and Starmer’s go up by 5 than if Sunak’s ratings go down by 1 and Starmer’s go down by say 3 as the lead narrows.
I accept that but you do not seem tto understand that for the conservatives to have any chance of recovery Sunak's own personal ratings need to rise which the trend suggest they are
At no time have I suggested that the conservatives will have good local but certainly Sunak is needed as the leader for the next GE
FPT - a few stand-up comedians are moving into becoming amateur military historians.
Al Murray, but also Joe Thomas has had a crack recently.
Al Murray stared to ease out of the Pub Landlord some years back: he did a film review/doc on the BBC, then did a Tank Museum Top 10 Tanks on YouTube, then the podcast with James Holland, some other stuff, and he had a book ("Command") which I'll get when it comes out in paperback. I can't comment on Joe Thomas because I don't know enough about him. Chris Barrie (Rimmer in Red Dwarf) also did similar when his big machine series did the CVR(T) family. I think basically some acts have limited lifespans and once you get the contacts you can do celeb-fronted docs as much as you like. If you can also research and write well, so much the better.
I think tactically, it's far more important to have inflation and interest rates coming down by the election.
Forget the penny off income tax, which is party management think not an electoral thing. It'd be better to start raising the thresholds again, or knocking it off energy bills, or he might even do something radical like abolishing inheritance tax.
Outside that, any money should be directed to clearing the backlog of NHS waiting lists - not that there will be much time to make an impact, and money is only one constraint (staff, facilities, social care for discharge etc)
Greetings from sunny Madeira. For the first time ever I will not be in the UK on local election polling day. Good job I have already cast my vote for the Lib Dems by post.
Don't say that, the next move will be to those will be abroad on election day - probably filthy remainers anyway.
China, India, Brazil and several other states close to Russia have unexpectedly voted for a UN Resolution which strongly censures Moscow's criminal behavior
I can't help but notice that the decline in Tory ratings in the last four opinion polls coincides neatly with Dominic Raab's resignation. This shows how much Raab was loved up and down the land.
So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?
So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?
So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?
Or no pants at all, which was the point in the film.
So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?
Or no pants at all, which was the point in the film.
Indeed. ;.) I seem to remember a part of the film where the pants were exhibited as an insult to the British, though, n'est-ce-pas ?
So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?
Or no pants at all, which was the point in the film.
Indeed. ;.) I seem to remember a part of the film where the pants were exhibited as an insult to the British, though, n'est-ce-pas ?
Infamously taken from a soldier by a pair of nickers.
So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?
Or no pants at all, which was the point in the film.
Indeed. ;.) I seem to remember a part of the film where the pants were exhibited as an insult to the British, though, n'est-ce-pas ?
No, the regiment had gone soft and started wearing nether garments under their kilts. This caused the Burpas to be revolting, due to the collapse in their fear of the British.
I'd expect the Conservatives to reach 30% in NEV. Simply because Reform won't translate its poll rating into votes on the ground.
Reform has no presence down here in the South Hams. Not been mentioned once on the doorsteps.
I'm not sure Reform is really serious at any level.
It's a NOTA or Conservative on strike vote.
Yes, same here, though we do have one RefUK candidate. They need Farage at the top to give them real substance.
By contrast, in the local elections Reform are standing in 9 of the 20 wards in Walsall.
I think their potential to hurt the Conservatives in a GE is being underestimated. They (as the Brexit Party) contested Labour-held seats in 2019, but stood down tactically to help the Conservatives in all the Conservative seats. That's not their intention this time around.
What are those robes made from ? From the pictures of the last coronation, the TV pictures gave an impression of velvet or silk. Gliding on velvet or silk towards the throne, like a young mermaid.
With Charles it will be more like the stately procession of the older organic farmer, looking curious and inquisitive about his villagers and citizens, I expect.
PRESS RELEASE - Tallahassee - Gov. Ron DeSantis issues statement, that broadcasts of drag show scheduled for this weekend, under the guise of royal coronation, will be banned in State of Florida by gubernatorial executive order.
"No innocent child, grandmother, jack-leg preacher, land pirate or political contributor is going to be subjected to such trans-woke filth. Not on MY watch, not in MY state.
"As for you, Chuckey, put on some pants and take off the muu-muu. And tell your friend Mickey to [inaudible]."
Lots of nerves tonight as lower as good as down, winner fights another day.
Is Dyche the new Percival?
The Wolves are supporting the Foxes. If Everton fail to win, they need to win 3 of their last 4 to catch us even if we lose every one of our last 4 games (although going on Saturday's performance the latter is a distinct possibility.)
Based on intelligence info, Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut in last few months--80,000 wounded and 20,000 killed since December, NSC spokesman John Kirby says. Prigozhin's claim Wagner Group's had only 94 killed in action "is just a ludicrous claim." https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1653093775944699905
I'd expect the Conservatives to reach 30% in NEV. Simply because Reform won't translate its poll rating into votes on the ground.
Reform has no presence down here in the South Hams. Not been mentioned once on the doorsteps.
I'm not sure Reform is really serious at any level.
It's a NOTA or Conservative on strike vote.
Yes, same here, though we do have one RefUK candidate. They need Farage at the top to give them real substance.
By contrast, in the local elections Reform are standing in 9 of the 20 wards in Walsall.
I think their potential to hurt the Conservatives in a GE is being underestimated. They (as the Brexit Party) contested Labour-held seats in 2019, but stood down tactically to help the Conservatives in all the Conservative seats. That's not their intention this time around.
For what it's worth, Tice has said they're going to stand in all the seats at the GE except in N.Ireland.
So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?
Or no pants at all, which was the point in the film.
Indeed. ;.) I seem to remember a part of the film where the pants were exhibited as an insult to the British, though, n'est-ce-pas ?
No, the regiment had gone soft and started wearing nether garments under their kilts. This caused the Burpas to be revolting, due to the collapse in their fear of the British.
So who's going to be swearing their allegiance while saluting, and who exhibiting their huge coronation pants at that moment instead, a la Carry On Up the Kyber?
Or no pants at all, which was the point in the film.
Indeed. ;.) I seem to remember a part of the film where the pants were exhibited as an insult to the British, though, n'est-ce-pas ?
No, the regiment had gone soft and started wearing nether garments under their kilts. This caused the Burpas to be revolting, due to the collapse in their fear of the British.
Ah, yes, and the removal of said garments restored the Imperial equilibrium. Even if the Gateway to India looked suspiciously like a farm track in Wales (which indeed it was).
Comments
It seems everyone improves a little
I expect a poor local election for the conservatives this week, but certainly Sunak’s personal ratings are continuing to improve as are Starmer’s.
The Government’s net competency rating stands at -23% this week, eight points up from last Sunday. Altogether, 24% find the Government competent (+6), and 47% find the Government incompetent (-2).
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -5%, up one point from our poll last Sunday, and the highest net approval rating he has held since 3 January. Yesterday’s poll finds 35% approving of his overall job performance (+2) against 40% (+1) disapproving.
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +10%, up five points from last week. 39% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+5), while 29% disapprove (–).
And finally, Keir Starmer (41%, +3) leads Rishi Sunak (37%, +3) by four points on the question of who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.
I made a fair and accurate comment on todays poll, and certainly did not try to make anything from a sub sample
As someone who is generally Tory (but not since Patersongate) it seems to me that those who want Real Conservative Conservatism have a politically significant job to do, which isn't being done.
Banking Crisis+Brexit+ Covid +Ukraine Events have shifted the Overton window, sent SME through the roof, and left demands for costlier public services on every front.
What is lacking (thank you Truss) is a coherent, costed, election-proof, sane, non-Unicorn medium term Proper Conservative plan from the Centre Right Policy Wonk Institute.
I am not alone in longing to know what it would say. I have literals no idea. can anyone point me in the right direction. Until then I am voting for that well known One Nation Tory Sir Keir Starmer.
(As evidenced already below.)
Read my first post
Responsibility of Labour Party in general, and Keir Starmer in particular, for the Fall of Singapore.
Hopefully a lot !
So it’s not a little improvement for everybody
We can play semantics but this poll does not show Sunak falling back on his ratings
Starmer is ahead and Thursday will be a bad day but as long as Sunak continues to improve his ratings as indicated then the next 18 months is interesting
Whereas given MOE, an increase of +5% really IS an increase; though perhaps not as much as that, but also possibly a bit more.
https://fulcrum.sg/fall-of-singapore-80-years-on-lessons-transcend-time-and-place/
https://academic.oup.com/book/32546/chapter/270333181
What now follows is two or three more decades of the fag end of the Thatcherite consensus, followed by revenge socialism once there are too few minted heirs left to outvote the masses of the dirt poor. Adam Smith might come back into fashion circa 2060.
You’ve been told many times that best PM isn’t as accurate as approval ratings due to incumbency bonus.
The real problem for the conservatives would be a fall in Sunak's personal ratings and at present that is not happening
It’s worse for Sunak if his ratings go up 1 and Starmer’s go up by 5 than if Sunak’s ratings go down by 1 and Starmer’s go down by say 3 as the lead narrows.
Recent increase in costs won’t help.
The quote comes from The Simpsons. Specifically, an episode entitled “Homie the Clown.” The episode has Homer Simpson who, because of his uncanny likeness to Krusty the Clown, becomes a stand in for the clown. Homer gets sent to events that Krusty thinks are too demeaning to him. The quote comes from the middle of the episode where Homer is sent in Krusty stead at one of the Krusty Burger openings. There is supposed to be a skit where the Krusty Burglar (a pastiche of the McDonalds Hamburglar) is stealing burgers. However, Homer thinks that the Krusty Burlar is real and proceeds to pummel the diminutive costumed individual in front of of a crowd of children, one of which delivers the quote "Stop, he's already dead".
That has become a meme generally posted on discussion boards when someone appears to have lost an argument already, signifying that the victorious poster should cease inflicting blows on the defeated.
You're welcome.
https://tenor.com/view/hello-i-would-like-to-report-a-murder-barbara-hill-neighbours-theres-been-a-murder-someone-just-got-murdered-gif-20976504
At no time have I suggested that the conservatives will have good local but certainly Sunak is needed as the leader for the next GE
He has to reduce Starmer’s lead.
That can be achieved through negative narrowing.
Al Murray, but also Joe Thomas has had a crack recently.
https://twitter.com/Mattladd1/status/1653076246723543040
Truss or Johnson could make a comeback before the election.
https://www.waterstones.com/book/command/al-murray/9781472284594
To choose is box office poison.
It's a NOTA or Conservative on strike vote.
When will we see the terrible backlash against Starmer for those vile posters?
Forget the penny off income tax, which is party management think not an electoral thing. It'd be better to start raising the thresholds again, or knocking it off energy bills, or he might even do something radical like abolishing inheritance tax.
Outside that, any money should be directed to clearing the backlog of NHS waiting lists - not that there will be much time to make an impact, and money is only one constraint (staff, facilities, social care for discharge etc)
Tories 22% in the NEV. so let’s see friday afternoon, not long to go.
King to be dressed in floor length golden robes worn by late Queen at ceremony
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1653098551507836935
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jeffrey-epstein-calendar-cia-director-goldman-sachs-noam-chomsky-c9f6a3ff?st=adtoi0b35u9a985&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
China, India, Brazil and several other states close to Russia have unexpectedly voted for a UN Resolution which strongly censures Moscow's criminal behavior
Number of Scottish polls in which fieldwork started in the month in question:
April 23: 1
March 23: 9
Feb 23: 5
Jan 23: 3
Lots of nerves tonight as lower as good as down, winner fights another day.
Is Dyche the new Percival?
I’m assuming a zero day.
Not good.
I'm not sure a military uniform really works for the sort of ceremony they're planning.
Leeds, Southampton and Forest to go down BUT West Ham will need something from their 'easier' games at the end of the season.
Everyone else safe. 37 points will be enough.
I think their potential to hurt the Conservatives in a GE is being underestimated. They (as the Brexit Party) contested Labour-held seats in 2019, but stood down tactically to help the Conservatives in all the Conservative seats. That's not their intention this time around.
With Charles it will be more like the stately procession of the older organic farmer, looking curious and inquisitive about his villagers and citizens, I expect.
"No innocent child, grandmother, jack-leg preacher, land pirate or political contributor is going to be subjected to such trans-woke filth. Not on MY watch, not in MY state.
"As for you, Chuckey, put on some pants and take off the muu-muu. And tell your friend Mickey to [inaudible]."
https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1653093775944699905
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/04/reform-uk-field-candidate-against-every-tory-next-election-richard-tice
Federal judge rules Pennsylvania school district must allow After School Satan Club
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3981851-federal-judge-rules-pennsylvania-school-district-must-allow-after-school-satan-club/