Just 46% of GE2019 CON voters still support the party – politicalbetting.com
Just 46% of GE2019 CON voters still support the party – politicalbetting.com
It was last January that we last did an analysis like the one above on what YouGov is finding when it asks GE2019 Tory voters what they would do now.
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The problem is 68% of Labour loyalists from 2019 is 68% of very few voters. Compare and contrast this to 46% of lots of Tory voters in 2019. I also think we can add all of Reform and most of DK to Rishi's column.
Delving into YouGov a little further, it's actually 28% when you include the Won't Votes (7%) and the Refused (1%).
Of the total, 29% are either DKs (16%) or Won't Vote (13%) so that's a big chunk of voters but turnout of around 70% these days isn't unusual so perhaps the DKs will become WVs.
As an aside, Redfield & Wilton have 53% of the 2019 Conservative vote staying loyal, 15% going to Labour and 17% in the DK column and 3% Won't Vote.
However. 10% of Tory voters intending to vote Labour is quite a bit of a lot. (There are a few on here).
Dunno how many Labour are intending to vote Tory?
But it will be a much smaller proportion of a smaller amount.
Out of interest on the Omnisis local polling, what is the start point for the 7.5% swing, LE19 or the GE?
LE19 actual vote count, rather than NEV.
One of my most profitable bets ever was on Everton 4 - Man Utd 4 in 2012/Man City winning the titles.
I foresee Everton beating City in a few weeks time, so tempted to do a double on Everton to avoid relegation/Arsenal to win the title.
How do you think Sunak has climbed from 23-24% to 30-31% over the last 4 months? Black magic?
DeSantis Has Raised a Staggering $110 Million — Doubling Trump's War Chest
https://twitter.com/New_Narrative/status/1651997108319268884
Yoon becomes 1st S. Korean to receive briefings at Pentagon, DARPA
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=349983
Washington agrees to lessen burden on Korean firms investing in US
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=350008
US Senate passes resolution recognizing importance of US-Korea alliance
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=349967
As the Conservatives face the miserable prospect of losing hundreds of seats in next week’s local elections, Rishi Sunak has resorted to the surest motivational method: appealing to cabinet ministers’ desire to best their colleagues.
The prime minister and Greg Hands, the Conservative Party chairman, have challenged ministers to complete at least three days of campaigning in key areas. A league table has been set up and at cabinet last week Sunak congratulated Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, for being in pole position.
The outlook for the Conservatives is undeniably bleak, with Hands highlighting independent claims that the Tories could lose as many as 1,000 councillors. In the game of expectation management anything less than that will be claimed as a relative success — but nobody at campaign headquarters (CCHQ) expects results to be good...
...No 10 believes that progress is being made. Earlier this year, allies of Boris Johnson were openly talking about mounting a coup if the local election results were bad enough. Such talk dissipated after Sunak succeeded in getting through his Brexit deal, with just 22 Tory rebels, and announced plans for the mass detention of all migrants who arrive in Britain on small boats.
The Conservatives’ metric for success in these elections will be how the results extrapolate to national vote share. In national polls Labour retain a healthy 15-point lead, albeit that has fallen from a consistent lead of around 20 points earlier this year. The Tories hope the local election results will show that Labour’s national lead is smaller than expected.
Sunak can also take solace from the fact that he and Starmer are consistently neck-and-neck on who voters think would make the best prime minister. He believes that if he can continue to right the ship in the wake of Liz Truss’s disastrous premiership, his personal poll ratings will translate to the national polls and he can win the next election.
The view in Downing Street is that Labour have peaked too soon and that by the end of the year their lead in the polls will be reduced to less than ten points. “They’ve been in easy mode for far too long,” a senior Conservative said. “We made it easy for them. But now they’ve got a fight on their hands and are having to raise their game.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/conservatives-battle-to-prevent-big-losses-in-2023-local-elections-tz8dh9tt0
I wasn't sure about adding chicken stock so I used Dashi as recommended by Leon (good tip).
I used 3 red peppers instead of:4 as I had a problem fitting everything into my dish;
I wimped out over the garlic and added 3 sliced cloves instead of 8. Next time I'll probably take it up to 5.
Also, I'd probably cut down slightly on the potatoes and increase the tomatoes.
Otherwise a great recipe which all the family enjoyed.
The Labour vote was way more efficient than the Tories up to 2015.
So it isn't set in stone.
Labour doing okay but nothing exceptional. The Tories seem to be playing the expectations game and calling it a good night if they lose less than a 1,000 seats .
Additional interest is how much tactical voting happens .
Andrew Strauss has left his roles as strategic adviser to the England and Wales Cricket Board and chair of the performance cricket committee only three weeks after the changes to the structure of domestic cricket he recommended in last year’s high performance review were declared “dead in the water” by Richard Gould, the governing body’s chief executive.
The announcement came on the day it emerged that the men’s Hundred could be abandoned in favour of a new Twenty20 competition, with the ECB said to be concerned the new format has failed to catch on internationally and was not as appealing to the cream of international talent as the widely played alternative.
Both Gould and the ECB chair, Richard Thompson, were prominent critics of the Hundred while working together at Surrey, which was the only county not to vote for the creation of the new tournament, before they moved to Lord’s last year. Gould had said before taking his new role in October that the county’s “preference was for a two-division T20”, and that is indeed one of the options now back under discussion.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/apr/28/strauss-exits-ecb-with-new-t20-format-on-table-and-hundred-on-the-rack
Bizarre.
Can’t they just get on with their jobs ?
I really don’t like him.
Now nearly £200 lower due to the new 45p rate kicking in.
I must confess it's testing my resolve.
https://youtu.be/s4RHOrtxIis
My vision for One World Government is set out here
https://youtu.be/XEECxN5P1nw
Maybe he will make further inroads into Labour's lead, maybe he won't, but he's shown an ability to change the political weather while Starmer still seems to be failing to seal the deal with wavering voters.
Given how severely most people's living standards have been affected by inflation it's kinda miraculous that Sunak has made any progress at all. As a lefty I'm seriously worried.
https://youtu.be/lgwfMF5kSJ0
Indeed, 2019 is the classic example of a set of local elections which had no similarity with the GE just seven months later. One could argue 2017 was true - a marvellous set of local results didn't translate into an election landslide of Theresa May just a few weeks later.
It's more the effect within rather than outside parties which matters especially in terms of future elections.
General Bison with a Queen backing track…..
That would be Labour +9%, Con -2%, LD -2%. I make it a 5.5% swing.
I was thinking about you the other night, not in a weird way, was looking for something to listen and fall asleep to on BBC sounds and they have a reading of the Casino Royale Book. I thought it would be perfect, thought I knew it from watching the film, 2 episodes of 70 mins each and I will be asleep after 20 mins approx. Drifting off thinking nothing then a line “bond lit his 70th cigarette of the day” and was suddenly “wow” and awake - 2 hours later still wide awake very happy to have listened to the original book - no gadgets just a good story.
So that’s the last time I hope I’m kept awake by Casino Royale but your questioning of politically might just do it.
The exclusive YouGov study for Sky News predicts big gains for Labour, while the Lib Dems could romp home in so-called "Blue wall" seats.
Labour will perform strongest in the Midlands and north of England next week, according to an exclusive new local election projection for Sky News, which suggests the "Red wall" is starting to abandon the Conservatives.
The Tories are also likely to struggle in key bellwether seats elsewhere in England - although the pollster did not expect quite so many Labour gains in key general election battlegrounds further south.
The performance of Conservative councils in the "Blue wall" is also likely to prompt concern among party chiefs, where the Liberal Democrat advances look likely to end years of Conservative control of key councils - with Ed Davey's party on course to make potential gains themselves.
YouGov is projecting the likely result and voting patterns in 18 key battleground councils for the local elections on 4 May, reflecting different types of electoral fights in different parts of the country.
It projects that Labour could be on course for major success in Swindon - a long standing major battleground between the two main parties.
Currently controlled by the Conservatives, the pollster now says it is leaning towards Labour and there will be significant gains to be made for the party in the area.
https://news.sky.com/story/local-elections-red-wall-may-start-to-abandon-tories-projection-shows-12868536
Please correct me if I got any of this wrong.
I think the Tories have released it in a leaflet, all PB avatars are accepted ID.
There are two choices going forward about where Governments of all flavours are going to get the ever-increasing skip loads of bank notes needed to pay for the care of the decrepit elderly and the morbidly obese: tax the fuck out of incomes, or tax the fuck out of property. No prizes for guessing where they are going to go: the same place they always go.
Fiscal drag will see even median wage earners become higher rate taxpayers eventually, because freezing the relevant thresholds indefinitely is the easiest way for the state to pay for pensions and healthcare without having to resort to raiding the asset wealth of the grey vote. A cross-party consensus programme of treating working taxpayers like frogs being slowly boiled in a cauldron of water is inevitable: crank taxation of earned incomes up gradually, in line with the rising care burden, and rely on people who aren't in possession of overpriced houses, share portfolios and fat pensions not noticing how impoverished they are becoming. Or simply resigning themselves miserably to the inevitable.
Not enough to be sure of a GE win next year although of course LAB are ahead and are rightly current GE favourites.
Polls are a snapshot of a particular moment in time, and typically a moment when voters aren't actually giving any thought to who they really want to form the next Government. The entire exercise has all the predictive value of a tarot reading.
theres a key bit from last year, lots of red wall counted in the night, they like doing that up there, and the results for Labour were mixed, so as everyone started watching the Lab v Tory battle, it made the morning headline “Labour disappoints in mid term locals” as the psephologists currently more distinguished and influential than me (though the outdated gents don’t utilise tits in the way I do) declared it nowhere near good enough to win the next general election. However London, the south and wales got round to counting next morning, Labour done great there, and Lib Dem’s actually one the election slaughtering Tory’s in blue wall, and it was a horrible locals for Tory’s worse than experts predicted, yet still the initial headline lingered until the country had tuned out from wanting to know official verdict of what happened.
Blue mirage?
That’s mainly because The main eye opener could be how low the Tory share is for failing to get their vote out in this current cost of living crisis, and Truss and Boris so recent in memory. As low as 23%.
How easy is it for NC Republicans to gerrymander Dems into oblivion? The current court-drawn map (left) split 7D-7R in 2022. I drew a hypothetical 11R-3D map (right) in about seven minutes.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1652023337982279712
Reminder that it’s close to a 50/50 state politically.