Latest general election most seats betting – politicalbetting.com
Latest general election most seats betting – politicalbetting.com
We could be less than a year away from the general election and betting markets like the one above are going to get a lot of attention as we get closer.
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8.7 million watched the trooping of the colour
13.4 million watched Party at the Palace
16.75 million took part in a community event
So about one in four of the population.
It's a plurality because they were the most popular/watched TV shows at the time, and more people were celebrating than doing any other one activity - even if not an absolute majority of the population. Many more caught highlights later. There would also have been school and other institutional celebrations as well, as well as private ones that did not show up in the figures. All in all I suspect a third of the population did something.
I expect viewing numbers for the Coronation to be similar and about 10 million+ to watch it live, and a higher number on highlights later.
That would not make Labour the largest party but it would make it impossible for Sunak to continue.
But that's (a) a guess and (b) there's a lot of water to flow under the bridge yet.
No surprise that Badenoch is all fart and no follow through as well.
Whatever the actual viewing figures, I’m sure there’ll be plenty for all sides to interpret in whichever way fits their pre-existing views
Part of my romantic getaway that 3 day weekend.
There doesn't seem much empirical evidence of deterrence by the governments Rwanda policy.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days
I otherwise never touch, watch or read about football and simply ignore anyone who does.
Starmer's not exactly Tony Blair, is he?
Always disappointing when that happens.
Hating how he is on top of their inadequacies must be the most serious reason for wanting to get rid of a Minister.
As some on the robust right here have pointed out, this scheme can only be effective if every boat person is pinged to Rwanda until the message gets through, which will take time. And there's little sign of that happening- not just because of law but also because of system capacity.
Morally, which is better? Doing something bloodcurdling, or promising to do something bloodcurdling in the knowledge that you won't be able to do it?
The more Starmer seems to saying, the more I’m inclined to vote LibDem. Or possibly Green; I haven’t forgotten tuition fees!
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1498457571216134144
They start from 160 seats ahead.
Polls are not where elections start from in this country.
Family meant I stopped following it as much, which cost me a (pretty minor, tbf) revenue stream. Political betting, otoh, I’m a net loser.
Occam’s razor here, I think. People realising that shit ministers are shit. We’re thirteen years into a Tory government that has slowly worn down its talent base to a nub, thanks to the preference for loyalty over ability. I wouldn’t trust Barclay or Raab with a coffee run.
It isn't just that the Tories have been reduced to culture wars and racism. Its that with even moderate Tories (and Mince too - cf Jonathan "Brains" Gullis attacking Braverman) getting that skin-crawling feeling about their policies and pronouncements, and BNP style rejects ramping them on social media and GBeebies, you have to pinch your nose quite hard to want to vote for *that*.
I honestly think we will see a big drop in turnout, especially in some of the red wall seats where they have been led up the garden path and then let down the hardest. Lab to UKIP to Tory voters likely to stay home, taking a chunk off the Tory tally leaving Labour to walk through comfortably. And similar in the blue wall, with LD instead of Labour in many seats.
People just aren't as amoral as the worst of today's Tories hope.
Also I think we're in something of a 1979 Winter of Discontent situation, where there's a perception the country doesn't work properly and the incumbent government are driven by ideology rather than competence. Even Sunak somewhat fits the analogy as, like Callaghan he is more popular than his party.
Strikes me, he is a man who has made up his mind irrespective of the facts.
If not your vote isn't going to matter and you may as well save yourself 10 minutes and not bother voting.
King’s coronation to be a beacon of inclusion and diversity
The ex-children’s television presenter Baroness Benjamin, a female Royal Navy petty officer and a former actor from The Archers are among those with historic roles in a coronation hailed for promoting “diversity and inclusion”.
The service at Westminster Abbey will feature several women of colour, including Baroness Amos, Dame Elizabeth Anionwu and the Bishop of Dover, the Rt Reverend Rose Hudson-Wilkin.
As forecast by The Times, there will be an abbey procession of leaders of other faiths, while peers from the four main non-Christian faiths — Muslim, Sikh, Hindu and Jewish — will present regalia to the King. Lady Benjamin, who will carry regalia to the altar, said: “I feel honoured and privileged to be part of the historic Coronation ceremony. To be selected to carry the Sovereign’s Sceptre with Dove, which represents spirituality, equity and mercy, is for me very symbolic as it sends out a clear message that diversity and inclusion is being embraced.”
The former nurse Lady Anionwu, who together with Lady Benjamin was one of the last members of the Order of Merit chosen by the Queen, will carry the Orb. As well as attempting to reflect racial diversity, the ceremony will be more socially inclusive than any coronation that has gone before. Petty Officer Amy Taylor will be the first woman to bear the Jewelled Sword of Offering into the Abbey. She has been selected to represent servicemen and women in a tribute to the King’s military career. She said: “Having served most of my senior career as an aircraft engineer on 845 Naval Air Squadron at RNAS Yeovilton where His Majesty originally trained and served as a pilot, I am deeply honoured and humbled to play my part in this historic event.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/king-charles-coronation-famous-roles-royal-regalia-inclusion-diversity-3x9827g90
That doesn't mean it' was a sane plan but it was better than suing the union next week...
F1: concise take on the weekend format: https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2023/04/sprint-race-shenanigans.html
Essentially, qualifying today at 2pm is stupid. I'll probably only do pre-race and maybe a post-race ramble.
It's probably just Starmer vs Sunak.
It would all have been considered rather laughable and pathetic until a few months (days? even) ago.
Perhaps in the end though this just goes down to 'gen Z' and its influence, and the breakdown of heirarchy and order. They feel they can make these criticisms and in doing so have little regard to conventions, the civil service code, their employment contract etc.
https://talksport.com/sport/motorsport/1405529/fernando-alonso-taylor-swift-lando-norris-margot-robbie-f1-dating-rumours/
https://youtu.be/94HFMSm-JBo
But they don't. They fail relentlessly, and get promoted to the next job until scandal hits or they fall out with their leader over something or other.
Perhaps its a massive conspiracy. Or perhaps we have simply elected quite a few incompetent ministers who don't have a clue what they are doing.
I expect the Greens to have a good set of locals next week.
Oh.
https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1556590394170818560
It's.entirely possible Sunak will be able to reduce or even overturn the current Labour advantage. But the starting point, as of today, is a large Labour majority verging on a landslide. That's simply a mechanic of the electoral system.
Indeed, we could see the majority of Essex councils out of Conservative control.
Even in 1945, which comes closest, the Conservatives were able to keep Labour's majority to 146. In 1997, Labour won a majority of 179. A similar swing today would see them win a majority of exactly one.
And polls are not starting points. They are indicators.
Focus on the swings required, and use the polls as a guide to where they will lead.
It's not entirely persuasive.
(Not that they ever left off doing so.)
Russian forces attacked Kyiv and several other cities across Ukraine with more than 20 missiles and two drones early on Friday, killing at least eight people and demolishing residential and commercial buildings, officials said...
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1651837709130801154
I expect polls to tighten over the next year as less engaged voters take interest, and for the Tory Locals results to not be as bad as some forecast. Nonetheless it is hard to see a Con government hanging on, even against the wooden, plodding Starmer.
Some of the more diligent will survive when the swing says they shouldn’t.
I think that you need to add 10-20 seats to the Tories to reflect this. Not enough for the Tories to survive but possibly enough to deny Labour an overall majority unless the SNP completely collapse.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/cricket/article-12022119/The-faces-chop-talks-taking-place-turning-competition-T20-event.html
(Though yes of course there are sensitive men and tough women).
The execution of Tangaraju Suppiah is absolutely unnacceptable, and is at odds with a larger move in the world towards abolition of the death penalty.
https://twitter.com/hrw/status/1651664318868381696
Ftfy.
Exactly. They are point in time indicators. Currently indicating a very substantial majority for Labour. Sunak could change that, and predictions turn on how successful he will be in doing that. But he has to do the work. Hence my original.remark.
Fortunately, we got the witnesses finished yesterday but other courts are going to struggle with witnesses and no one to make sure that they are in the right place at the right time.
Senate GOP blocks Equal Rights Amendment
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3975654-senate-gop-blocks-equal-rights-amendment/
I'm starting to feel a thread header coming on although with the amount of work I've got right now goodness only knows when I would have time to write it.
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2014/03/prweb11671488.htm
Here’s how men and women compared:
Women are more coachable overall than men (score of 75 vs. 71 on a scale from 0 to 100)
Women are better at handling criticism (74 vs. 69)
Women are more open to learning and improvement (85 vs. 81)
Women are more willing to take direction (70 vs. 67)
2% of women vs. 7% of men believe that they don’t have any weaknesses.
3% of women vs. 10% of men think that performance evaluations are a waste of time, because they are already good at what they do.
5% of women vs.11% of men will immediately shut down and stop listening as soon as they hear a negative comment about their work. (This is why nagging is a waste of time).
7% of women vs. 16% of men admit that they exaggerate or over-estimate their professional skills.
9% of women vs. 22% of men believe that they are much more knowledgeable than most people.
10% of women vs. 25% of men believe that there is no point in pursuing a goal if you need other people’s help to achieve it.
19% of women vs. 27% of men don’t like admitting to others when they are having difficulty understand something, or are unfamiliar with the topic of conversation.
85% of women vs. 79% of men are open to advice and suggestions from their manager.
If asked to list their faults, 10% of women and15% of men would have a hard time coming up with any.
During a performance review:
5% of women vs.12% of men threatened to quit after a performance review.
5% of women vs. 10% of men actually quit after a performance review.
13% of women vs. 30% of men told the critic that he/she is “wrong” or “misinformed”.
25% of women vs. 34% of men agreed to improve/implement changes but never followed through.
27% of women vs. 41% of men openly disagreed with the feedback they received.
"People are still trapped under the rubble," President Zelensky said about the Uman attack.
Just 2 days ago, China's XI urged Zelensky to negotiate with Putin.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1651858734119899142
Uman is a small town many hundreds of km from the front. Best known as a pilgrimage site for Hasidic Jews.
Yes. At the risk of being repetitive, MPs who choose Boris Actual Johnson to be prime minister aren't well-placed to criticise other people's HR processes.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1651854432135413761
I am not in favour of the death penalty, although certain acts try that sentiment very much (the murder o Sarah everard for instance). But this man committed a crime in a nation with the death penalty for drug smuggling. He took the risk. He was caught and suffered the consequences.
Making allusions to Singaporean business culture and practice and linking to the death penalty is some stretch.
Which would be better. But there is already a perfectly good one of those.
Indeed, I'm going to buy my tickets to watch Lancashire in the T20 today.
It's hard to get excited about going to watch 'Manchester'.