Options
How long before the LAB lead is in single figures? – politicalbetting.com
How long before the LAB lead is in single figures? – politicalbetting.com
Given the current state of UK politics, it comes as something of a shock to recall that a little over two years ago one of the leading betting markets was on which month LAB would get at least one pollster recording a lead.
1
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Items from aircraft carrier, whose proposed visit to US was cancelled last year after mechanical failure, used to repair sister vessel
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/23/3bn-warship-hms-prince-of-wales-stripped-for-parts/ (£££)
I remember the Beiderbecke trilogy as excellent, but haven't seen it in 30+ years: time to dig it out.
The position in these Sudan situations seems always the same, the the UK government politically stuck in the worst possible place.
I doubt if there is a well known general policy about these situations. Every time the government (Mitchell today, someone else under the next government) says that they are working 24/7 to do stuff for UK citizens, the BBC interviews the trapped on shaky connections, who all say the same thing - no-one has been in touch.
Government should be clearer at all times what its limits are. Palmerstonian expectations (sadly) are misplaced. Beyond those in country X for state reasons (forces, diplomats etc) it is hard to see how the duty can arise.
Only NATO or the UN would be big enough bodies to even think about real protection of all foreign nationals in failed states 10 times the size of the UK. I don't think they want the job.
Given the RSF are loosely, supposedly, Wagner allies I do wonder if we won’t see a bit of NATO special military operation.
Australia's spending quite a lot on missiles:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-65370284
I’d expect the gap to narrow to ten-ish percent before the election.
The last few years have not been great for these two rather shaky foundations. By far the greatest change is the real issue of authoritarianism, Trump and Trumpism, and isolationism in the USA, but the list of states darkening rather than otherwise is growing fast. Is a tipping point coming?
Edit: that said, the RSF do seem the "worse guys" if this account is correct (I generally trust Cooper to get things right): https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/sudan-war-24-april-2023?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
https://youtu.be/3ldiIix1vf4
First is that, so far, polls are mostly picking up disgruntled ex-Conservatives returning from Don't Know to the blue column. They're the low hanging fruit for Sunak, but they're only enough to turn disaster into defeat. He might be able to move onto the next tranche, but that will be harder.
Second, one of the things that happened in Spring '97 was churn from Labour to Lib Dem. That looks like a narrowing of the polls, but depending on where it happens, it's got the potential to be really bad news for the Conservatives.
Bear in the mind the next tasking for the PoW is meant to be Flight Deck quals, the schedule of which is entirely in the gift of the US 2nd Fleet. We've already fucked them around and cancelled on them twice at the last minute. The first time was when somebody flooded the ship and blew up the IEP by not understanding how the fire suppression system worked and the second time was this propeller falling off business. They knew it was fucked from the dock trials but insisted on trying to limp it across the Atlantic due to the embarrassment of the first cancellation. This plan lasted as long as it took to get to with hailing distance of Egypt Point.
Abandoning traditional empire we have tried to destruction other approaches. Western liberals have yet to come to terms with the fact that other powers have neither abandoned empire, nor necessarily care about the world becoming better or more democratic or more liberal.
In the USA the Republican party is massively in the hands of people who do not trust liberalism, democracy or the rule of law. This is the beginnings of fascism; interestingly it seems to me that defensive forms of fascism are where people will turn when the liberal project is no longer convincing.
One paradox that I found is that the government want to reduce immigration and asylum seekers but perversely make it quite easy to become a naturalised citizen, it is a few years of law abiding living, form filling, some language tests, and then a pretty hefty fee.
I mentioned before that I once had a taxi driver who just boasted about having several different citizenships - In some cases, the concept of citizenship to something that is about private advantage.
Second rule of working abroad, if you’re thinking about discussing when it might be time to leave, then you’re already too late. Many others will be in the same situation.
Diplomats and government workers might be able to get rescued by the Hereford Boat Club, but the rest of us won’t be so lucky.
I remember John Major once saying his fave book was A Small House at Allington'. Suddenly his rating soared. Only a decent man could say that. Let me guess: Putin, Xi and Trump don't read Trollope.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Ford_(journalist)
TSE will like the sixth law.
Launched Alan Rickman's career. Fantastic cast.
Putin or at least not pro Zelensky.
Though of course if Trump and Le Pen won the next US and French Presidential elections as polls suggest is not impossible that would massively shift the western world back away from long dominant liberalism towards authoritarianism
Impressive even by MOD/FO standards.
Also refuses to commit to auditors being in place in time for end of May deadline to submit audited accounts to Westminster authorities.
Failing to do this will result in monthly payments of Short Money (£1m+ a year) stopping immediately, putting staff jobs at risk.
https://twitter.com/Mike_Blackley/status/1650407948173049856?s=20
However, on topic, running the country with moderate seriousness and competence may well be enough to get the Labour lead down to single digits, as Starmer hasn't set out such a vision either, and, as observed downthread, there are probably enough people who lean Tory to get them to 30-35% if they can avoid screwups. But it is much more difficult to see them back in the lead without knowing where they want to take the country, after 13 years of office (if not of power).
I spent one of the first 2 years of my life in Port Sudan as it happens. My memories of it are somewhat vague but that makes me a 5* Sudani Expert in PB World.
South Korea would be an option with maybe T-50s, Hyundai Ioniqs and other assorted hardware going the other way.
And they could probably build one cheaper; certainly more seaworthy.
Sunak and his wife have spent a decade in public service, when they could have done far more profitable things, so his commitment to the UK can hardly be doubted.
Going from the Wikiworm average, EdM's best was about L43C32, which turned out to be insufficient when 2015 came around.
Dave in Opposition got to C46L26 in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (what happened in October 2008ish to cause a biggish closing of the gap?) and C38L23 during the 2009 Euro elections UKIP surge. That was enough for Labour to lose in 2010, but not for the Conservatives to win.
Before 2005 and 2001, there were only spasmodic Conservative leads.
Jez's lead was never more than a couple of points.
The gap is closing, but it's still awfully big in terms of recent history.
https://twitter.com/EmbSpainUK/status/1650421394163789825
Off the top of my head, it's hard to think of anything that Rickman wasn't good in.
It is amazing to think about how many people are still in China despite the many, many warning signs. There are also people still in Russia.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/03/south-korea-eyeing-larger-aircraft-carrier-for-its-cvx-program/
Only dealing with these matters individually (usually about more expenditure) is the special domain of R4 Today programme contributors and should not be added to.
https://twitter.com/nurdogandiyorki/status/1650152518591168514
*Presumably Turkish Twitter history ?
I can't work out what your point is about Rishi Sunak. He was once a permanent resident in the USA. Are you suggesting that this somehow dilutes his British citizenship?
HY said he would do well in the debates - does being taken apart because you promised stuff you haven't delivered work for late polling surges?
The pandemic should also make us think what can happen, and where we want to be if it does.
Most of all, have options. If half a million people turn up at the same airport, it’s going to be a long wait. Escaping over land might be easier, if there’s a safe country close by for which you don’t need a visa. Oh, and cash. A few friends called Benjamin can be very useful in such a situation!
I think a lot of Dennis Potter's works were in the 80's right? Singing Detective? So really whoever said TV drama in the 80's was bad, was talking nonsense.
I think period drama in the 80's was OK, but was often recorded on videotape, so has a murky, fuzzy quality. The 90's ones have aged better.
AstraZeneca overtakes Pfizer as crunch week for UK pharma looms
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/24/astrazeneca-overtakes-pfizer-as-crunch-week-for-uk-pharma-looms
...In a week when AstraZeneca and Britain’s second-biggest pharma firm GSK release their latest quarterly results and the main industry body, the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry holds its annual conference, all eyes will be on what pharma executives say about the UK as a place to operate and invest in.
GSK’s chief executive, Emma Walmsley, recently said that life sciences were at a “tipping point,” saying the UK needed to reverse the decline in clinical trials, speed up approvals of new drugs and deploy the latest medicines more quickly.
Her counterpart at AstraZeneca, Pascal Soriot, also took a shot at the business climate, saying less favourable tax rates had prompted the firm to build a new factory in Ireland rather than the UK. The industry is locked in a battle with the government over the soaring rebates it pays to the National Health Service, which are designed to limit the NHS’s medicines bill...
There's probably no immediate threat to UK life sciences, but there's certainly a prospect of long slow decline, if not addressed by government.
I recently saw the early episodes of The Professionals. Broadcast on TV they are fuzzy and washed out. On a streaming service they are pinsharp, so I guess the original films survive.
Not entirely true. The LibDems are going to take 10+ seats from the tories, possibly 20.
The more tory seats are lost to others, the fewer gains Labour need for a majority.
And, of course, the more SNP seats go to Labour (20+ now possible), the more likely their outright majority as opposed to a coalition.
https://www.government.nl/latest/news/2023/04/24/the-netherlands-and-uk-expand-energy-collaboration-with-new-electricity-link
If he had come out with a vision immediately after being appointed then he would have been ignored. Now people will listen, may be.
Not much time though
Sunak can't deliver the party. They are just tainted. SKS intends to deliver leader+ party to the disaffected Tory voters. If he does I think he will be next PM.
Scotland (barring a Tory miracle) makes little difference to next PM. There has to be one. The SNP will not enable a Tory PM. By default it will enable a Labour one.
With the exception of 'Stop the boats', his 5 pledges were all flimsy nonsense that he calculated would hapoen anyway. Had we got Liz's economic plans, no CT rise etc., the economy would look very different.
Sunak's wife holds non dom status as she has told HMRC that she does not plan to live in the UK long term. Doesnt that rather suggest to you that he doesn't either? Or are they planning to transition to a long distance relationship?
I find it a bit odd that you take umbrage at some poor taxi driver trying to game the system to his advantage but are totally fine with the PM doing the same while his wife avoids a hefty tax bill by claiming she plans to leave the country in a few years. I'm a bit of a Citizen of Nowhere myself but even I find this kind of behaviour a bit distasteful.
Maybe less complacency and hubris would be wise
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/entertainment/tv/strictly-come-dancing-judge-len-goodman-dies-aged-78/ar-AA1afhnN?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=2c6fe3f18ec444608c9942f573d88666&ei=8
I am still convinced the Tory rating drops back in May after a good April, just like it did for Boris last year. Council tax and mortgages might be the reason for it.
To answer Mikes question we might not see a single digit lead this side of an election. But surely it’s the monthly average of polls that really matters, not a rogue one from favourite pollster, and that’s still a huge 14% or more
This is her statement on the matter:
British Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s wife Akshata Murty has given up her non-domiciled tax status after a public outcry.
Murty insisted that the move, which means she will now pay UK tax on all her overseas earnings, was voluntary as her non-domicile status was “entirely legal”.
In a statement, she said: “It has become clear that many do not feel it (non-dom status) is compatible with my husband’s role as Chancellor. I understand and appreciate the British sense of fairness and I do not wish my tax status to be a distraction for my husband or to affect my family.”
“This means I will now pay UK tax on an arising basis on all my worldwide income, including dividends and capital gains, wherever in the world that income arises. I do this because I want to, not because the rules require me to,” she added.
The decision will take effect immediately and apply to the previous tax year as well as all future ones.
She went on to say: “My decision to pay UK tax on all my worldwide income will not change the fact that India remains the country of my birth, citizenship, parents’ home and place of domicile. But I love the UK too. In my time here I have invested in British businesses and supported British causes. My daughters are British. They are growing up in the UK. I am so proud to be here.”