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Tonight’s Opinium – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,646
edited April 2023 in General
Tonight’s Opinium – politicalbetting.com

Rishi Sunak's approval rating has dropped back after last week's high, though still higher than before Easter, 41% approve, 29% disapprove, net is -12 pic.twitter.com/Z12OhMej3G

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,721
    edited April 2023
    Do Opinium "swingback" leader ratings as well as party totals?

    Ooh, a first
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    2nd horse put down at Aintree today.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,434
    Mexicanpete said:

    Do Opinium "swingback" leader ratings as well as party totals?

    Ooh, a first

    No to the first question.

    See the firsts on here aren't fixed.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,846
    Typo in tweet, 41 disapprove, no?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,579
    Has anyone told Opinium that they have approve and disapprove the wrong way round?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,306
    LostPassword said:

    My tank ID is bad, but claimed to be a photo of a T-55 in use by Russian forces in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1647279106134794240

    This is one aspect of the "stalemate" narrative that is worth considering. How long can Russia maintain a stalemate without extensive external support? Can they last as long as the inauguration of the next US President in January 2025, in the hope that it will be Trump and the support for Ukraine will stop?

    If they're using T-55s now then I don't think they can last that long.

    Appearances can be deceiving, but so far they have scraped by unfortunately. It's just so costly to go on the offensive to take back territory for Ukraine I guess.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Level pegging with opponent AND none-of-the-above, is bigger problem for the incumbent than the challenger.

    Strategically- and (eventually) electorally-speaking.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Has anyone told Opinium that they have approve and disapprove the wrong way round?

    "On balance, are you more likely to approve of voters who disapprove of Rishi Sunak, than you disapprove of voters who approve of Keir Starmer?"
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,811
    Sandpit said:

    2nd horse put down at Aintree today.

    I expect the protestors will go that lovely gammony shade of puce in outrage. Its a horse race. If we didn't have horse racing these animals wouldn't be bred at all.

    If none of these animals exist at all, is that them being "saved"? p
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    LostPassword said:

    My tank ID is bad, but claimed to be a photo of a T-55 in use by Russian forces in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1647279106134794240

    This is one aspect of the "stalemate" narrative that is worth considering. How long can Russia maintain a stalemate without extensive external support? Can they last as long as the inauguration of the next US President in January 2025, in the hope that it will be Trump and the support for Ukraine will stop?

    If they're using T-55s now then I don't think they can last that long.

    That’s a T-55 - five wheels rather than six on more modern T62 and T72 tanks. The Russians have a few hundred of them in various states of storage, there have already been stories of good ones raided from museums to be prepared for battle.

    The NATO tanks that will be going up against them, are somewhat better.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,704
    Sleazy, broken, horse-murdering Tories on the slide :lol:
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,548
    O/t but the Guardian is reporting that South Dakota Governor says her two year old granddaughter has two guns. And not toy ones!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,114
    Interesting that Labour sources have apparently said they believe they are more like 10 to 12 points ahead, not the 18 points in the opinion polls.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,306
    OldKingCole said:

    O/t but the Guardian is reporting that South Dakota Governor says her two year old granddaughter has two guns. And not toy ones!

    Well how else is she going to be able to protect herself if a crazed gunman attacks her nursery?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Sandpit said:

    LostPassword said:

    My tank ID is bad, but claimed to be a photo of a T-55 in use by Russian forces in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1647279106134794240

    This is one aspect of the "stalemate" narrative that is worth considering. How long can Russia maintain a stalemate without extensive external support? Can they last as long as the inauguration of the next US President in January 2025, in the hope that it will be Trump and the support for Ukraine will stop?

    If they're using T-55s now then I don't think they can last that long.

    That’s a T-55 - five wheels rather than six on more modern T62 and T72 tanks. The Russians have a few hundred of them in various states of storage, there have already been stories of good ones raided from museums to be prepared for battle.

    The NATO tanks that will be going up against them, are somewhat better.
    That's great. However........ does Ukraine have sufficient control of the skies and will it be enough to push all the way to the sea of Azov cutting the land bridge? It would be an awful shame if the advance peters out because we weren't prepared to provide fighter jets and ATACMS. I still haven't seen an explanation for that other than the dangerous escalation answer.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,711
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Labour sources have apparently said they believe they are more like 10 to 12 points ahead, not the 18 points in the opinion polls.

    Pretty standard for parties to say that in order to GOTV. Never obvious that they actually believe it.

    Anything more than level pegging has Sunak as toast at a GE, of course.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,811
    Entirely off-topic, I am perusing PCs as thinking about investing in a power tower system which has plenty of umph for 4k rendering.

    Blimey! Price of graphics cards!!!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,596
    The rumours that the SNP are finished, and a new party is being instigated, are still swirling about Twitter

    Not just from nutters, either
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,711
    kle4 said:

    OldKingCole said:

    O/t but the Guardian is reporting that South Dakota Governor says her two year old granddaughter has two guns. And not toy ones!

    Well how else is she going to be able to protect herself if a crazed gunman attacks her nursery?
    The only protection against the boogie monster is an AR15.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,704
    Leon said:

    The rumours that the SNP are finished, and a new party is being instigated, are still swirling about Twitter

    Not just from nutters, either

    Scottish Nutter Party?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,119
    Well, a step in the right direction.

    New smart motorway plans being scrapped
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65288852

    Now to abandon the ones that have already been built so the stupid wankers won't put up ludicrous speed limits for invented 'incidents' 'obstructions' and 'queues.'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,306
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Entirely off-topic, I am perusing PCs as thinking about investing in a power tower system which has plenty of umph for 4k rendering.

    Blimey! Price of graphics cards!!!

    I manage to get by upgrading my PC about every 6-7 years without experiencing difficulty, gods only knows how people can afford multiple top end cards frequently.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,119
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Leon said:

    The rumours that the SNP are finished, and a new party is being instigated, are still swirling about Twitter

    Not just from nutters, either

    Scottish Nutter Party?
    More like the Scottish Not-a party.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,171
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Labour sources have apparently said they believe they are more like 10 to 12 points ahead, not the 18 points in the opinion polls.

    "Labour sources have apparently said"? Seriously?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    FrankBooth said:

    Sandpit said:

    LostPassword said:

    My tank ID is bad, but claimed to be a photo of a T-55 in use by Russian forces in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1647279106134794240

    This is one aspect of the "stalemate" narrative that is worth considering. How long can Russia maintain a stalemate without extensive external support? Can they last as long as the inauguration of the next US President in January 2025, in the hope that it will be Trump and the support for Ukraine will stop?

    If they're using T-55s now then I don't think they can last that long.

    That’s a T-55 - five wheels rather than six on more modern T62 and T72 tanks. The Russians have a few hundred of them in various states of storage, there have already been stories of good ones raided from museums to be prepared for battle.

    The NATO tanks that will be going up against them, are somewhat better.
    That's great. However........ does Ukraine have sufficient control of the skies and will it be enough to push all the way to the sea of Azov cutting the land bridge? It would be an awful shame if the advance peters out because we weren't prepared to provide fighter jets and ATACMS. I still haven't seen an explanation for that other than the dangerous escalation answer.
    There are air defence systems included in the military aid. The Russians have basically stopped flying in Ukraine now, because half of their losses of aircraft have been from friendly fire, with the Russian forces unable to distinguish a Russian MiG-29 or Su-27, from a Ukranian MiG-29 or Su-27. ATACMS is there, but being used sparingly as they’re expensive and rare. The land route to Crimea is not safe for the Russians, and they know it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,721
    ydoethur said:

    Well, a step in the right direction.

    New smart motorway plans being scrapped
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65288852

    Now to abandon the ones that have already been built so the stupid wankers won't put up ludicrous speed limits for invented 'incidents' 'obstructions' and 'queues.'

    They've only just finished the one on the M5 at Wychbold. Three years of carnage as they built it, a year of carnage whilst it was operational and another 3 years to turn it back to a regular motorway. What an utter waste of time and taxpayer's pounds.

    Starmer fans please explain.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,544
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Labour sources have apparently said they believe they are more like 10 to 12 points ahead, not the 18 points in the opinion polls.

    Pretty standard for parties to say that in order to GOTV. Never obvious that they actually believe it.

    Anything more than level pegging has Sunak as toast at a GE, of course.
    And remember that ICM (the only pollster not to embarass themselves in 1997) had Labour leads in the range 12 - 22 percent across 1996.

    Things might change, but as things stand it looks a lot closer to 1997 than 1992 for the Conservatives. What consequences that has for Labour remain to be seen.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    edited April 2023
    Leon said:

    The rumours that the SNP are finished, and a new party is being instigated, are still swirling about Twitter

    Not just from nutters, either

    There’s £1m/year Short Money at stake, from the evil Westminster.

    That’s like NINE camper vans.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Sandpit said:

    2nd horse put down at Aintree today.

    I expect the protestors will go that lovely gammony shade of puce in outrage. Its a horse race. If we didn't have horse racing these animals wouldn't be bred at all.

    If none of these animals exist at all, is that them being "saved"?
    The ultimate aim of these people is the abolition of livestock farming and making everyone adopt veganism. I'm not sure if they expect racehorses (and cattle, sheep, pigs, bees and so on) to be released to go feral, or if they want domesticated animals simply to die out so as to make more room for wildlife.

    The Grand National is just the most convenient opportunity to garner publicity for the cause. If jump racing ended tomorrow they'd go after flat racing and eventing. If equine sport ended tomorrow then they'd probably start picketing dairy farms.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,418
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Labour sources have apparently said they believe they are more like 10 to 12 points ahead, not the 18 points in the opinion polls.

    "Labour sources have apparently said"? Seriously?
    A shadow minister allegedly according to the Times.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,606
    ‘A naive and stupid idea’: how Rishi Sunak’s Future Fund spent millions on failed firms
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/15/a-naive-and-stupid-idea-how-rishi-sunaks-future-fund-spent-millions-on-failed-firms
    … this company collapse attracted particular scrutiny because it had been funded not just by venture capital, but also by the taxpayer, courtesy of a £5m loan from Rishi Sunak’s Future Fund.

    Launched in April 2020 when the prime minister was chancellor, the fund was designed to help promising startup businesses ride out the pandemic. It was administered by the British Business Bank (BBB), the UK state development vehicle designed to increase the flow of lending to growing companies.

    Under the scheme, the BBB would lend firms between £125,000 and £5m, matching parallel investments from private investors, with the loans converting into shares when the company next raised capital.

    By January 2021, Sunak told the House of Commons that the fund had ridden to the rescue of 1,000 of Britain’s “fastest-growing startup companies”. That upbeat assessment belied a history of serious misgivings behind the scenes.

    In May 2020, shortly after the fund was created, the BBB chief executive, Keith Morgan, wrote a “reservation notice” to ministers warning of concerns that the scheme would only attract “second tier” companies that could not attract investment from elsewhere and that achieving value for money for the taxpayer was “highly uncertain”. If the BBB were to go ahead with it, he said, it would need to be expressly instructed to do so by ministers.

    … Many of the fund’s loan recipients were neither startups nor fast-growing. Some had connections to Sunak and the Conservative party, while others had wealthy investors, such as the Duke of Westminster or EasyGroup tycoon Stelios Haji-Ioannou. Still more simply proved to be bad bets, going bust and leaving the taxpayer on the hook for millions…

    Be interesting to see how this progresses over the next year.
    So far only around 10% of the fund is definitely irrecoverable.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,544
    Mexicanpete said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well, a step in the right direction.

    New smart motorway plans being scrapped
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65288852

    Now to abandon the ones that have already been built so the stupid wankers won't put up ludicrous speed limits for invented 'incidents' 'obstructions' and 'queues.'

    They've only just finished the one on the M5 at Wychbold. Three years of carnage as they built it, a year of carnage whilst it was operational and another 3 years to turn it back to a regular motorway. What an utter waste of time and taxpayer's pounds.

    Starmer fans please explain.
    Wasn't the point of smart motorways to save money by getting more motorway lanes (and potentially better flow) without the expense of actually rebuilding the roads with more width?

    So, if they are being scrapped, are we spending shedloads to create road capacity out of concrete, or tolerating extra delays?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,207
    edited April 2023
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    The rumours that the SNP are finished, and a new party is being instigated, are still swirling about Twitter

    Not just from nutters, either

    There’s £1m/year Short Money at stake, from the evil Westminster.

    That’s like NINE camper vans.
    Move over SNP and make way for the CVP.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    pigeon said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Sandpit said:

    2nd horse put down at Aintree today.

    I expect the protestors will go that lovely gammony shade of puce in outrage. Its a horse race. If we didn't have horse racing these animals wouldn't be bred at all.

    If none of these animals exist at all, is that them being "saved"?
    The ultimate aim of these people is the abolition of livestock farming and making everyone adopt veganism. I'm not sure if they expect racehorses (and cattle, sheep, pigs, bees and so on) to be released to go feral, or if they want domesticated animals simply to die out so as to make more room for wildlife.

    The Grand National is just the most convenient opportunity to garner publicity for the cause. If jump racing ended tomorrow they'd go after flat racing and eventing. If equine sport ended tomorrow then they'd probably start picketing dairy farms.
    Spot on. They are fanatics and they need to be fought in this trench, or they will simply move on to the next.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Sandpit said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Sandpit said:

    LostPassword said:

    My tank ID is bad, but claimed to be a photo of a T-55 in use by Russian forces in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1647279106134794240

    This is one aspect of the "stalemate" narrative that is worth considering. How long can Russia maintain a stalemate without extensive external support? Can they last as long as the inauguration of the next US President in January 2025, in the hope that it will be Trump and the support for Ukraine will stop?

    If they're using T-55s now then I don't think they can last that long.

    That’s a T-55 - five wheels rather than six on more modern T62 and T72 tanks. The Russians have a few hundred of them in various states of storage, there have already been stories of good ones raided from museums to be prepared for battle.

    The NATO tanks that will be going up against them, are somewhat better.
    That's great. However........ does Ukraine have sufficient control of the skies and will it be enough to push all the way to the sea of Azov cutting the land bridge? It would be an awful shame if the advance peters out because we weren't prepared to provide fighter jets and ATACMS. I still haven't seen an explanation for that other than the dangerous escalation answer.
    There are air defence systems included in the military aid. The Russians have basically stopped flying in Ukraine now, because half of their losses of aircraft have been from friendly fire, with the Russian forces unable to distinguish a Russian MiG-29 or Su-27, from a Ukranian MiG-29 or Su-27. ATACMS is there, but being used sparingly as they’re expensive and rare. The land route to Crimea is not safe for the Russians, and they know it.
    Well I hope you are right. It's quite possible that there is more support being provided than we have been made aware of, not least so the Ukrainians have the element of surprise when they do attack. However the dragging of heels over tank deliveries and the sense of half-heartedness in many western countries doesn't fill me with optimism.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,119
    Stuartinromford said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well, a step in the right direction.

    New smart motorway plans being scrapped
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65288852

    Now to abandon the ones that have already been built so the stupid wankers won't put up ludicrous speed limits for invented 'incidents' 'obstructions' and 'queues.'

    They've only just finished the one on the M5 at Wychbold. Three years of carnage as they built it, a year of carnage whilst it was operational and another 3 years to turn it back to a regular motorway. What an utter waste of time and taxpayer's pounds.

    Starmer fans please explain.
    Wasn't the point of smart motorways to save money by getting more motorway lanes (and potentially better flow) without the expense of actually rebuilding the roads with more width?

    So, if they are being scrapped, are we spending shedloads to create road capacity out of concrete, or tolerating extra delays?
    The ones round here create at least as many delays as they solve.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Labour sources have apparently said they believe they are more like 10 to 12 points ahead, not the 18 points in the opinion polls.

    First poll in which Labour drop below a 10 point lead they will publicly shit their pants.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,117
    Leon said:

    The rumours that the SNP are finished, and a new party is being instigated, are still swirling about Twitter

    Not just from nutters, either

    You mean like New Labour . We know how that ended.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,114
    O/T

    Coup attempt in Sudan.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/apr/15/sudan-fighting-khartoum-latest-news-updates
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,550
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    OldKingCole said:

    O/t but the Guardian is reporting that South Dakota Governor says her two year old granddaughter has two guns. And not toy ones!

    Well how else is she going to be able to protect herself if a crazed gunman attacks her nursery?
    The only protection against the boogie monster is an AR15.
    What if the Boogie Monster is wearing Class 4 body armour with the hard plate inserts?

    Barrett Light Fifties for all tots!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    edited April 2023
    LostPassword said:

    My tank ID is bad, but claimed to be a photo of a T-55 in use by Russian forces in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1647279106134794240

    This is one aspect of the "stalemate" narrative that is worth considering. How long can Russia maintain a stalemate without extensive external support? Can they last as long as the inauguration of the next US President in January 2025, in the hope that it will be Trump and the support for Ukraine will stop?

    If they're using T-55s now then I don't think they can last that long.

    A lot will have changed by 2025, but I don't think Trump in the White House would help Putin in practice.

    Most likely Trump would just repeat his previous theatrics with NATO and make a show of demanding that Europe pays for taking care of its own backyard. Countries like Poland are not going to shrug and say, "Well we might as well sell them out to Russia."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    FrankBooth said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Sandpit said:

    LostPassword said:

    My tank ID is bad, but claimed to be a photo of a T-55 in use by Russian forces in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1647279106134794240

    This is one aspect of the "stalemate" narrative that is worth considering. How long can Russia maintain a stalemate without extensive external support? Can they last as long as the inauguration of the next US President in January 2025, in the hope that it will be Trump and the support for Ukraine will stop?

    If they're using T-55s now then I don't think they can last that long.

    That’s a T-55 - five wheels rather than six on more modern T62 and T72 tanks. The Russians have a few hundred of them in various states of storage, there have already been stories of good ones raided from museums to be prepared for battle.

    The NATO tanks that will be going up against them, are somewhat better.
    That's great. However........ does Ukraine have sufficient control of the skies and will it be enough to push all the way to the sea of Azov cutting the land bridge? It would be an awful shame if the advance peters out because we weren't prepared to provide fighter jets and ATACMS. I still haven't seen an explanation for that other than the dangerous escalation answer.
    There are air defence systems included in the military aid. The Russians have basically stopped flying in Ukraine now, because half of their losses of aircraft have been from friendly fire, with the Russian forces unable to distinguish a Russian MiG-29 or Su-27, from a Ukranian MiG-29 or Su-27. ATACMS is there, but being used sparingly as they’re expensive and rare. The land route to Crimea is not safe for the Russians, and they know it.
    Well I hope you are right. It's quite possible that there is more support being provided than we have been made aware of, not least so the Ukrainians have the element of surprise when they do attack. However the dragging of heels over tank deliveries and the sense of half-heartedness in many western countries doesn't fill me with optimism.
    I’m more optimistic. It’s really not half-hearted, it’s simply a difference in how NATO military doctrine works, compared to Russian military doctrine. We don’t keep thousands of tanks, we keep dozens of them, and they are important assets that need to be supported by infantry and air defences.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,171
    RandallFlagg said:

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Labour sources have apparently said they believe they are more like 10 to 12 points ahead, not the 18 points in the opinion polls.

    "Labour sources have apparently said"? Seriously?
    A shadow minister allegedly according to the Times.
    You'll forgive me if I'm not wholly convinced and I'm also surprised the Times just accepts it. Presumably it's what the Times would like to hear and it does Labour no harm to try and put about the notion it's a closer contest than the polls suggest as a way of getting the vote out.

    We'll know more after the locals - I'd be looking at big Labour gains especially but not exclusively from the Conservatives. Hopefully we'll see a thread looking at some of the main contests. Smarkets have only Surrey Heath, West Berkshire and Wirral up as betting opportunities.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,550
    FrankBooth said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Sandpit said:

    LostPassword said:

    My tank ID is bad, but claimed to be a photo of a T-55 in use by Russian forces in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1647279106134794240

    This is one aspect of the "stalemate" narrative that is worth considering. How long can Russia maintain a stalemate without extensive external support? Can they last as long as the inauguration of the next US President in January 2025, in the hope that it will be Trump and the support for Ukraine will stop?

    If they're using T-55s now then I don't think they can last that long.

    That’s a T-55 - five wheels rather than six on more modern T62 and T72 tanks. The Russians have a few hundred of them in various states of storage, there have already been stories of good ones raided from museums to be prepared for battle.

    The NATO tanks that will be going up against them, are somewhat better.
    That's great. However........ does Ukraine have sufficient control of the skies and will it be enough to push all the way to the sea of Azov cutting the land bridge? It would be an awful shame if the advance peters out because we weren't prepared to provide fighter jets and ATACMS. I still haven't seen an explanation for that other than the dangerous escalation answer.
    There are air defence systems included in the military aid. The Russians have basically stopped flying in Ukraine now, because half of their losses of aircraft have been from friendly fire, with the Russian forces unable to distinguish a Russian MiG-29 or Su-27, from a Ukranian MiG-29 or Su-27. ATACMS is there, but being used sparingly as they’re expensive and rare. The land route to Crimea is not safe for the Russians, and they know it.
    Well I hope you are right. It's quite possible that there is more support being provided than we have been made aware of, not least so the Ukrainians have the element of surprise when they do attack. However the dragging of heels over tank deliveries and the sense of half-heartedness in many western countries doesn't fill me with optimism.
    The first Western tanks are in Ukraine. The recent ammo deal between South Korea and the US has freed up several hundred K of 155 rounds.

    I rather get the impression that Ukraine is finishing a build up of forces. Certainly they haven’t put he latest deliveries in the front line. Yet.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,579
    I've just booked my ferry for Saint-Malo which I'll be on this time next week, and the return three weeks later

    I have nothing else booked
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,823
    FrankBooth said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Sandpit said:

    LostPassword said:

    My tank ID is bad, but claimed to be a photo of a T-55 in use by Russian forces in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1647279106134794240

    This is one aspect of the "stalemate" narrative that is worth considering. How long can Russia maintain a stalemate without extensive external support? Can they last as long as the inauguration of the next US President in January 2025, in the hope that it will be Trump and the support for Ukraine will stop?

    If they're using T-55s now then I don't think they can last that long.

    That’s a T-55 - five wheels rather than six on more modern T62 and T72 tanks. The Russians have a few hundred of them in various states of storage, there have already been stories of good ones raided from museums to be prepared for battle.

    The NATO tanks that will be going up against them, are somewhat better.
    That's great. However........ does Ukraine have sufficient control of the skies and will it be enough to push all the way to the sea of Azov cutting the land bridge? It would be an awful shame if the advance peters out because we weren't prepared to provide fighter jets and ATACMS. I still haven't seen an explanation for that other than the dangerous escalation answer.
    There are air defence systems included in the military aid. The Russians have basically stopped flying in Ukraine now, because half of their losses of aircraft have been from friendly fire, with the Russian forces unable to distinguish a Russian MiG-29 or Su-27, from a Ukranian MiG-29 or Su-27. ATACMS is there, but being used sparingly as they’re expensive and rare. The land route to Crimea is not safe for the Russians, and they know it.
    Well I hope you are right. It's quite possible that there is more support being provided than we have been made aware of, not least so the Ukrainians have the element of surprise when they do attack. However the dragging of heels over tank deliveries and the sense of half-heartedness in many western countries doesn't fill me with optimism.
    In the leaked intelligence is an assessment that China considers the use of NATO weapons by Ukraine to attack targets in Russia proper as a red line, beyond which they would start to provide large-scale supplies of military hardware to Russia.

    I think it's considerations like that which are a factor in limiting the support provided to Ukraine.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,550
    Nigelb said:

    ‘A naive and stupid idea’: how Rishi Sunak’s Future Fund spent millions on failed firms
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/15/a-naive-and-stupid-idea-how-rishi-sunaks-future-fund-spent-millions-on-failed-firms
    … this company collapse attracted particular scrutiny because it had been funded not just by venture capital, but also by the taxpayer, courtesy of a £5m loan from Rishi Sunak’s Future Fund.

    Launched in April 2020 when the prime minister was chancellor, the fund was designed to help promising startup businesses ride out the pandemic. It was administered by the British Business Bank (BBB), the UK state development vehicle designed to increase the flow of lending to growing companies.

    Under the scheme, the BBB would lend firms between £125,000 and £5m, matching parallel investments from private investors, with the loans converting into shares when the company next raised capital.

    By January 2021, Sunak told the House of Commons that the fund had ridden to the rescue of 1,000 of Britain’s “fastest-growing startup companies”. That upbeat assessment belied a history of serious misgivings behind the scenes.

    In May 2020, shortly after the fund was created, the BBB chief executive, Keith Morgan, wrote a “reservation notice” to ministers warning of concerns that the scheme would only attract “second tier” companies that could not attract investment from elsewhere and that achieving value for money for the taxpayer was “highly uncertain”. If the BBB were to go ahead with it, he said, it would need to be expressly instructed to do so by ministers.

    … Many of the fund’s loan recipients were neither startups nor fast-growing. Some had connections to Sunak and the Conservative party, while others had wealthy investors, such as the Duke of Westminster or EasyGroup tycoon Stelios Haji-Ioannou. Still more simply proved to be bad bets, going bust and leaving the taxpayer on the hook for millions…

    Be interesting to see how this progresses over the next year.
    So far only around 10% of the fund is definitely irrecoverable.

    The actual success rate of startups is tiny. As is basically any new idea.

    Hence the DARPA system of spreading quite small sums, on a huge range of projects.

    When I have discussed this kind of idea with politicians, they always want to pick the winners, based of political factors. Because a 95% failure rate is anathema to them.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,171
    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Labour sources have apparently said they believe they are more like 10 to 12 points ahead, not the 18 points in the opinion polls.

    First poll in which Labour drop below a 10 point lead they will publicly shit their pants.
    What will the Conservatives do if the leads start increasing again as the latest Opinium and Omnisis suggest? At what point will they start panicking and realise defeat is inevitable?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,550
    LostPassword said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Sandpit said:

    LostPassword said:

    My tank ID is bad, but claimed to be a photo of a T-55 in use by Russian forces in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1647279106134794240

    This is one aspect of the "stalemate" narrative that is worth considering. How long can Russia maintain a stalemate without extensive external support? Can they last as long as the inauguration of the next US President in January 2025, in the hope that it will be Trump and the support for Ukraine will stop?

    If they're using T-55s now then I don't think they can last that long.

    That’s a T-55 - five wheels rather than six on more modern T62 and T72 tanks. The Russians have a few hundred of them in various states of storage, there have already been stories of good ones raided from museums to be prepared for battle.

    The NATO tanks that will be going up against them, are somewhat better.
    That's great. However........ does Ukraine have sufficient control of the skies and will it be enough to push all the way to the sea of Azov cutting the land bridge? It would be an awful shame if the advance peters out because we weren't prepared to provide fighter jets and ATACMS. I still haven't seen an explanation for that other than the dangerous escalation answer.
    There are air defence systems included in the military aid. The Russians have basically stopped flying in Ukraine now, because half of their losses of aircraft have been from friendly fire, with the Russian forces unable to distinguish a Russian MiG-29 or Su-27, from a Ukranian MiG-29 or Su-27. ATACMS is there, but being used sparingly as they’re expensive and rare. The land route to Crimea is not safe for the Russians, and they know it.
    Well I hope you are right. It's quite possible that there is more support being provided than we have been made aware of, not least so the Ukrainians have the element of surprise when they do attack. However the dragging of heels over tank deliveries and the sense of half-heartedness in many western countries doesn't fill me with optimism.
    In the leaked intelligence is an assessment that China considers the use of NATO weapons by Ukraine to attack targets in Russia proper as a red line, beyond which they would start to provide large-scale supplies of military hardware to Russia.

    I think it's considerations like that which are a factor in limiting the support provided to Ukraine.
    It was the use of Starlink on the remote control speedboats used to attack the a Russian Navy that caused a lot of people to light up and go Tilt!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Never believe something until its officially denied.....



    https://twitter.com/sgfmann/status/1647337793910104067?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,550
    CarlottaVance said:

    Never believe something until its officially denied.....



    https://twitter.com/sgfmann/status/1647337793910104067?s=20

    If they can’t get their accounts audited and signed off, they are in the shit with the Electoral Commission, aren’t they?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Talking of tanks, it looks like there was an incident involving some Russian ones at Kazan today.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1647213888927137792
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,523
    BlancheLivermore said:

    I've just booked my ferry for Saint-Malo which I'll be on this time next week, and the return three weeks later

    I have nothing else booked

    We have still not planned or booked a summer holiday yet, but I have just booked our favourite holiday let up on the West Coast for a week in the Autumn tonight.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,550
    williamglenn said:

    Talking of tanks, it looks like there was an incident involving some Russian ones at Kazan today.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1647213888927137792

    Careless smoking, again. Nothing to see here.

    Care for a Luck Strike, Komrade?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,704
    CarlottaVance said:

    Never believe something until its officially denied.....



    https://twitter.com/sgfmann/status/1647337793910104067?s=20

    The Darien Party.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,717
    ydoethur said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Leon said:

    The rumours that the SNP are finished, and a new party is being instigated, are still swirling about Twitter

    Not just from nutters, either

    Scottish Nutter Party?
    More like the Scottish Not-a party.
    Is that abbreviated?

    Are they wanting to avoid hitting rock bottom?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,704
    Malmesbury said:

    williamglenn said:

    Talking of tanks, it looks like there was an incident involving some Russian ones at Kazan today.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1647213888927137792

    Careless smoking, again. Nothing to see here.

    Care for a Luck Strike, Komrade?
    You're Kazan a laugh!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    CarlottaVance said:

    Never believe something until its officially denied.....



    https://twitter.com/sgfmann/status/1647337793910104067?s=20

    Eilish McColgan forced to deny she’s running a marathon next weekend?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,579
    fitalass said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    I've just booked my ferry for Saint-Malo which I'll be on this time next week, and the return three weeks later

    I have nothing else booked

    We have still not planned or booked a summer holiday yet, but I have just booked our favourite holiday let up on the West Coast for a week in the Autumn tonight.
    I mean I have nothing booked for my holiday except the ferry!

    I don't know where I'm going to be sleeping, even on the first night, until I know how far I'm going to walk that day
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,811
    Malmesbury said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Never believe something until its officially denied.....



    https://twitter.com/sgfmann/status/1647337793910104067?s=20

    If they can’t get their accounts audited and signed off, they are in the shit with the Electoral Commission, aren’t they?
    https://twitter.com/JockThomson54/status/1646971884955750414
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Are the rumours true that Tory party intends purchase their auld partners the SNP for £1?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,596
    BBC2 is playing a live concert by Carole King in Central Park in NYC from.... 1973

    The nostalgia is haunting. And her outfit is touchingly terrible, as is the camerawork, and the overcast sky. But the music is real and entirely unmediated, with an innocence that ahhhhhhhhh sad
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    BARROW & FURNESS: I'm told seven members of executive committee of local Labour Party have resigned over toxic nature of recent parliamentary selection, including the chair, vice-chair & secretary. Can anyone DM more on this?

    https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1647342104736047106?s=20
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,596
    CarlottaVance said:

    Never believe something until its officially denied.....



    https://twitter.com/sgfmann/status/1647337793910104067?s=20

    This does begin to look quite bad


    CHORTLE
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,579
    Leon said:

    BBC2 is playing a live concert by Carole King in Central Park in NYC from.... 1973

    The nostalgia is haunting. And her outfit is touchingly terrible, as is the camerawork, and the overcast sky. But the music is real and entirely unmediated, with an innocence that ahhhhhhhhh sad

    I haven't turned that on, but am now listening to Tapestry for the first time in ages

    What a great album
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,596
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Leon said:

    BBC2 is playing a live concert by Carole King in Central Park in NYC from.... 1973

    The nostalgia is haunting. And her outfit is touchingly terrible, as is the camerawork, and the overcast sky. But the music is real and entirely unmediated, with an innocence that ahhhhhhhhh sad

    I haven't turned that on, but am now listening to Tapestry for the first time in ages

    What a great album
    A masterpiece
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,596
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Never believe something until its officially denied.....



    https://twitter.com/sgfmann/status/1647337793910104067?s=20

    If they can’t get their accounts audited and signed off, they are in the shit with the Electoral Commission, aren’t they?
    https://twitter.com/JockThomson54/status/1646971884955750414
    But that prison bus is so....... WHITE!!!!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,961
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Entirely off-topic, I am perusing PCs as thinking about investing in a power tower system which has plenty of umph for 4k rendering.

    Blimey! Price of graphics cards!!!

    I can tell this is English and English is my tongue but there it stops.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,961
    Leon said:

    BBC2 is playing a live concert by Carole King in Central Park in NYC from.... 1973

    The nostalgia is haunting. And her outfit is touchingly terrible, as is the camerawork, and the overcast sky. But the music is real and entirely unmediated, with an innocence that ahhhhhhhhh sad

    In the top tier of singer songwriters. The very top tier.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,894
    BlancheLivermore said:

    fitalass said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    I've just booked my ferry for Saint-Malo which I'll be on this time next week, and the return three weeks later

    I have nothing else booked

    We have still not planned or booked a summer holiday yet, but I have just booked our favourite holiday let up on the West Coast for a week in the Autumn tonight.
    I mean I have nothing booked for my holiday except the ferry!

    I don't know where I'm going to be sleeping, even on the first night, until I know how far I'm going to walk that day
    Something I’ve long had a dream of doing. Not the walking bit as such, but just departing (probably on the train from London to Dover Priory) with a suitcase and passport and nothing planned, then going where serendipity takes me. Like the starts of the best travel stories: Paul Theroux’s old Patagonian Express, Patrick Leigh-Fermor’s A Time of Gifts, Laurie Lee’s When I Walked out one Midsummer morning, and the first episode of Michael Palin’s 80 days among many others.

    Not something easily done with children in tow so will have to wait a few years.

    Enjoy that moment of departure.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,596
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Leon said:

    BBC2 is playing a live concert by Carole King in Central Park in NYC from.... 1973

    The nostalgia is haunting. And her outfit is touchingly terrible, as is the camerawork, and the overcast sky. But the music is real and entirely unmediated, with an innocence that ahhhhhhhhh sad

    I haven't turned that on, but am now listening to Tapestry for the first time in ages

    What a great album
    You've Got A Friend is one of the greatest songs of all time, and it also, unusually, has two superb versions: the original Carole King but then the James Taylor cover. Can never decide which is better
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,207
    A Kenyan satellite has been launched (by Kenya) to survey crop areas.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,417
    O/T I’m spending my first ever night in Glastonbury, and it’s like being in The Wicker Man.

    I wonder if I should visit Asgard, The Magickal Apothecary, and ask them if they’ll sell me a dried foetus.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,596
    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    fitalass said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    I've just booked my ferry for Saint-Malo which I'll be on this time next week, and the return three weeks later

    I have nothing else booked

    We have still not planned or booked a summer holiday yet, but I have just booked our favourite holiday let up on the West Coast for a week in the Autumn tonight.
    I mean I have nothing booked for my holiday except the ferry!

    I don't know where I'm going to be sleeping, even on the first night, until I know how far I'm going to walk that day
    Something I’ve long had a dream of doing. Not the walking bit as such, but just departing (probably on the train from London to Dover Priory) with a suitcase and passport and nothing planned, then going where serendipity takes me. Like the starts of the best travel stories: Paul Theroux’s old Patagonian Express, Patrick Leigh-Fermor’s A Time of Gifts, Laurie Lee’s When I Walked out one Midsummer morning, and the first episode of Michael Palin’s 80 days among many others.

    Not something easily done with children in tow so will have to wait a few years.

    Enjoy that moment of departure.
    I believe an ex-PBer did something very much like this, last year, and expressed his gratitude for the experience

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-i-learnt-on-my-grown-up-gap-year/
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,579
    Leon said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Leon said:

    BBC2 is playing a live concert by Carole King in Central Park in NYC from.... 1973

    The nostalgia is haunting. And her outfit is touchingly terrible, as is the camerawork, and the overcast sky. But the music is real and entirely unmediated, with an innocence that ahhhhhhhhh sad

    I haven't turned that on, but am now listening to Tapestry for the first time in ages

    What a great album
    You've Got A Friend is one of the greatest songs of all time, and it also, unusually, has two superb versions: the original Carole King but then the James Taylor cover. Can never decide which is better
    Surely it doesn't matter which is "better"?

    They're both great to hear and listen to
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,606
    .
    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    ‘A naive and stupid idea’: how Rishi Sunak’s Future Fund spent millions on failed firms
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/15/a-naive-and-stupid-idea-how-rishi-sunaks-future-fund-spent-millions-on-failed-firms
    … this company collapse attracted particular scrutiny because it had been funded not just by venture capital, but also by the taxpayer, courtesy of a £5m loan from Rishi Sunak’s Future Fund.

    Launched in April 2020 when the prime minister was chancellor, the fund was designed to help promising startup businesses ride out the pandemic. It was administered by the British Business Bank (BBB), the UK state development vehicle designed to increase the flow of lending to growing companies.

    Under the scheme, the BBB would lend firms between £125,000 and £5m, matching parallel investments from private investors, with the loans converting into shares when the company next raised capital.

    By January 2021, Sunak told the House of Commons that the fund had ridden to the rescue of 1,000 of Britain’s “fastest-growing startup companies”. That upbeat assessment belied a history of serious misgivings behind the scenes.

    In May 2020, shortly after the fund was created, the BBB chief executive, Keith Morgan, wrote a “reservation notice” to ministers warning of concerns that the scheme would only attract “second tier” companies that could not attract investment from elsewhere and that achieving value for money for the taxpayer was “highly uncertain”. If the BBB were to go ahead with it, he said, it would need to be expressly instructed to do so by ministers.

    … Many of the fund’s loan recipients were neither startups nor fast-growing. Some had connections to Sunak and the Conservative party, while others had wealthy investors, such as the Duke of Westminster or EasyGroup tycoon Stelios Haji-Ioannou. Still more simply proved to be bad bets, going bust and leaving the taxpayer on the hook for millions…

    Be interesting to see how this progresses over the next year.
    So far only around 10% of the fund is definitely irrecoverable.

    The actual success rate of startups is tiny. As is basically any new idea.

    Hence the DARPA system of spreading quite small sums, on a huge range of projects.

    When I have discussed this kind of idea with politicians, they always want to pick the winners, based of political factors. Because a 95% failure rate is anathema to them.
    These don’t seem to have been startups.
    … Many of the fund’s loan recipients were neither startups nor fast-growing...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,979
    edited April 2023
    Sean_F said:

    O/T I’m spending my first ever night in Glastonbury, and it’s like being in The Wicker Man.

    I wonder if I should visit Asgard, The Magickal Apothecary, and ask them if they’ll sell me a dried foetus.

    Glasto has long been strange, and has got stranger over the last 15 years.
    Probably a good job that alternative healing doesn’t need to show proof of efficacy, or the towns economy would fold…

    (Oddly autocorrect turned Glasto into Glasgow, only just caught it in time…)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,979
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    fitalass said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    I've just booked my ferry for Saint-Malo which I'll be on this time next week, and the return three weeks later

    I have nothing else booked

    We have still not planned or booked a summer holiday yet, but I have just booked our favourite holiday let up on the West Coast for a week in the Autumn tonight.
    I mean I have nothing booked for my holiday except the ferry!

    I don't know where I'm going to be sleeping, even on the first night, until I know how far I'm going to walk that day
    Something I’ve long had a dream of doing. Not the walking bit as such, but just departing (probably on the train from London to Dover Priory) with a suitcase and passport and nothing planned, then going where serendipity takes me. Like the starts of the best travel stories: Paul Theroux’s old Patagonian Express, Patrick Leigh-Fermor’s A Time of Gifts, Laurie Lee’s When I Walked out one Midsummer morning, and the first episode of Michael Palin’s 80 days among many others.

    Not something easily done with children in tow so will have to wait a few years.

    Enjoy that moment of departure.
    I believe an ex-PBer did something very much like this, last year, and expressed his gratitude for the experience

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-i-learnt-on-my-grown-up-gap-year/
    Not that prick again? Isn’t it time he settled down?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,704
    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    fitalass said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    I've just booked my ferry for Saint-Malo which I'll be on this time next week, and the return three weeks later

    I have nothing else booked

    We have still not planned or booked a summer holiday yet, but I have just booked our favourite holiday let up on the West Coast for a week in the Autumn tonight.
    I mean I have nothing booked for my holiday except the ferry!

    I don't know where I'm going to be sleeping, even on the first night, until I know how far I'm going to walk that day
    Something I’ve long had a dream of doing. Not the walking bit as such, but just departing (probably on the train from London to Dover Priory) with a suitcase and passport and nothing planned, then going where serendipity takes me. Like the starts of the best travel stories: Paul Theroux’s old Patagonian Express, Patrick Leigh-Fermor’s A Time of Gifts, Laurie Lee’s When I Walked out one Midsummer morning, and the first episode of Michael Palin’s 80 days among many others.

    Not something easily done with children in tow so will have to wait a few years.

    Enjoy that moment of departure.
    Well, you should avoid the Orient Express!

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/orient-express-to-scrap-uk-section-after-41-years-due-to-brexit/ar-AA19UhKX
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    Sean_F said:

    O/T I’m spending my first ever night in Glastonbury, and it’s like being in The Wicker Man.

    I wonder if I should visit Asgard, The Magickal Apothecary, and ask them if they’ll sell me a dried foetus.

    You’re about 10 weeks early for the festival.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,961
    williamglenn said:

    LostPassword said:

    My tank ID is bad, but claimed to be a photo of a T-55 in use by Russian forces in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1647279106134794240

    This is one aspect of the "stalemate" narrative that is worth considering. How long can Russia maintain a stalemate without extensive external support? Can they last as long as the inauguration of the next US President in January 2025, in the hope that it will be Trump and the support for Ukraine will stop?

    If they're using T-55s now then I don't think they can last that long.

    A lot will have changed by 2025, but I don't think Trump in the White House would help Putin in practice.

    Most likely Trump would just repeat his previous theatrics with NATO and make a show of demanding that Europe pays for taking care of its own backyard. Countries like Poland are not going to shrug and say, "Well we might as well sell them out to Russia."
    It's hard to predict what Trump would do because he's pure ego and impulse. He's a massive general risk to more or less everything. Unmodelable.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,979
    edited April 2023
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I’m spending my first ever night in Glastonbury, and it’s like being in The Wicker Man.

    I wonder if I should visit Asgard, The Magickal Apothecary, and ask them if they’ll sell me a dried foetus.

    You’re about 10 weeks early for the festival.
    And in the wrong place. Glastonbury festival is not held in Glastonbury, it’s near Pilton.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,677
    Brexit and 21st-century biometric checks are killing off the romance of crossing borders for modern passengers looking for the nostalgia of the luxury train journey that inspired Agatha Christie and Hollywood.

    Belmond, the company that runs today’s Venice Simplon-Orient-Express (VSOE), has decided to drop the London-to-Folkestone leg of the route because it has become too difficult to cross the border to Calais.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,550
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    ‘A naive and stupid idea’: how Rishi Sunak’s Future Fund spent millions on failed firms
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/15/a-naive-and-stupid-idea-how-rishi-sunaks-future-fund-spent-millions-on-failed-firms
    … this company collapse attracted particular scrutiny because it had been funded not just by venture capital, but also by the taxpayer, courtesy of a £5m loan from Rishi Sunak’s Future Fund.

    Launched in April 2020 when the prime minister was chancellor, the fund was designed to help promising startup businesses ride out the pandemic. It was administered by the British Business Bank (BBB), the UK state development vehicle designed to increase the flow of lending to growing companies.

    Under the scheme, the BBB would lend firms between £125,000 and £5m, matching parallel investments from private investors, with the loans converting into shares when the company next raised capital.

    By January 2021, Sunak told the House of Commons that the fund had ridden to the rescue of 1,000 of Britain’s “fastest-growing startup companies”. That upbeat assessment belied a history of serious misgivings behind the scenes.

    In May 2020, shortly after the fund was created, the BBB chief executive, Keith Morgan, wrote a “reservation notice” to ministers warning of concerns that the scheme would only attract “second tier” companies that could not attract investment from elsewhere and that achieving value for money for the taxpayer was “highly uncertain”. If the BBB were to go ahead with it, he said, it would need to be expressly instructed to do so by ministers.

    … Many of the fund’s loan recipients were neither startups nor fast-growing. Some had connections to Sunak and the Conservative party, while others had wealthy investors, such as the Duke of Westminster or EasyGroup tycoon Stelios Haji-Ioannou. Still more simply proved to be bad bets, going bust and leaving the taxpayer on the hook for millions…

    Be interesting to see how this progresses over the next year.
    So far only around 10% of the fund is definitely irrecoverable.

    The actual success rate of startups is tiny. As is basically any new idea.

    Hence the DARPA system of spreading quite small sums, on a huge range of projects.

    When I have discussed this kind of idea with politicians, they always want to pick the winners, based of political factors. Because a 95% failure rate is anathema to them.
    These don’t seem to have been startups.
    … Many of the fund’s loan recipients were neither startups nor fast-growing...
    The article is a mess.

    What is the definition of a startup?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,721
    Leon said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Never believe something until its officially denied.....



    https://twitter.com/sgfmann/status/1647337793910104067?s=20

    If they can’t get their accounts audited and signed off, they are in the shit with the Electoral Commission, aren’t they?
    https://twitter.com/JockThomson54/status/1646971884955750414
    But that prison bus is so....... WHITE!!!!
    Not as white as the SNP's battle bus....
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Blast from the past PB meme. What was Ed Miliband meant to face a Terrible Backlash for again?

    Posting Vapid Bilge for the Herd?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,579
    Which is better out of:

    Camille Yarbrough - Take Yo' Praise (1975)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGQbtyctPmE

    or,

    Fat Boy Slim - Praise You (1998)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruAi4VBoBSM

    ???
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,306
    kinabalu said:

    williamglenn said:

    LostPassword said:

    My tank ID is bad, but claimed to be a photo of a T-55 in use by Russian forces in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1647279106134794240

    This is one aspect of the "stalemate" narrative that is worth considering. How long can Russia maintain a stalemate without extensive external support? Can they last as long as the inauguration of the next US President in January 2025, in the hope that it will be Trump and the support for Ukraine will stop?

    If they're using T-55s now then I don't think they can last that long.

    A lot will have changed by 2025, but I don't think Trump in the White House would help Putin in practice.

    Most likely Trump would just repeat his previous theatrics with NATO and make a show of demanding that Europe pays for taking care of its own backyard. Countries like Poland are not going to shrug and say, "Well we might as well sell them out to Russia."
    It's hard to predict what Trump would do because he's pure ego and impulse. He's a massive general risk to more or less everything. Unmodelable.
    Some of his most vocal supproters definitely want to advance Putin's aims by abandoning Ukraine - the chances of him indulging such people is surely higher than many suspect. A show to Europe that they need to up their game is one thing, but the USA is necessary here.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,704
    Freggles said:

    Blast from the past PB meme. What was Ed Miliband meant to face a Terrible Backlash for again?

    Posting Vapid Bilge for the Herd?

    EICIPM :lol:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,961
    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Labour sources have apparently said they believe they are more like 10 to 12 points ahead, not the 18 points in the opinion polls.

    First poll in which Labour drop below a 10 point lead they will publicly shit their pants.
    I wouldn't. But I am a lot more relaxed with the mid teens.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,721
    If you are in the shit with the Electoral Commission, for example for not having auditors, does there come a point at which you can't stand candidates?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,721
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I’m spending my first ever night in Glastonbury, and it’s like being in The Wicker Man.

    I wonder if I should visit Asgard, The Magickal Apothecary, and ask them if they’ll sell me a dried foetus.

    You’re about 10 weeks early for the festival.
    But well placed in the queue to at least have a shit....
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,894
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    fitalass said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    I've just booked my ferry for Saint-Malo which I'll be on this time next week, and the return three weeks later

    I have nothing else booked

    We have still not planned or booked a summer holiday yet, but I have just booked our favourite holiday let up on the West Coast for a week in the Autumn tonight.
    I mean I have nothing booked for my holiday except the ferry!

    I don't know where I'm going to be sleeping, even on the first night, until I know how far I'm going to walk that day
    Something I’ve long had a dream of doing. Not the walking bit as such, but just departing (probably on the train from London to Dover Priory) with a suitcase and passport and nothing planned, then going where serendipity takes me. Like the starts of the best travel stories: Paul Theroux’s old Patagonian Express, Patrick Leigh-Fermor’s A Time of Gifts, Laurie Lee’s When I Walked out one Midsummer morning, and the first episode of Michael Palin’s 80 days among many others.

    Not something easily done with children in tow so will have to wait a few years.

    Enjoy that moment of departure.
    Well, you should avoid the Orient Express!

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/orient-express-to-scrap-uk-section-after-41-years-due-to-brexit/ar-AA19UhKX
    It wouldn’t be the same anyway without the 80s getup and Michael Palin in the next compartment.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,434
    Freggles said:

    Blast from the past PB meme. What was Ed Miliband meant to face a Terrible Backlash for again?

    Posting Vapid Bilge for the Herd?

    Going after Rupert Murdoch over phone hacking.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,417
    turbotubbs said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I’m spending my first ever night in Glastonbury, and it’s like being in The Wicker Man.

    I wonder if I should visit Asgard, The Magickal Apothecary, and ask them if they’ll sell me a dried foetus.

    Glasto has long been strange, and has got stranger over the last 15 years.
    Probably a good job that alternative healing doesn’t need to show proof of efficacy, or the towns economy would fold…

    (Oddly autocorrect turned Glasto into Glasgow, only just caught it in time…)
    I wonder if they practise human sacrifice in these parts.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,596
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Leon said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Leon said:

    BBC2 is playing a live concert by Carole King in Central Park in NYC from.... 1973

    The nostalgia is haunting. And her outfit is touchingly terrible, as is the camerawork, and the overcast sky. But the music is real and entirely unmediated, with an innocence that ahhhhhhhhh sad

    I haven't turned that on, but am now listening to Tapestry for the first time in ages

    What a great album
    You've Got A Friend is one of the greatest songs of all time, and it also, unusually, has two superb versions: the original Carole King but then the James Taylor cover. Can never decide which is better
    Surely it doesn't matter which is "better"?

    They're both great to hear and listen to
    It doesn't matter at all, of course, but the weird thing is - having this minute listened to both - I have just decided that the original Carole King version is "better". More earthy and authentic, and ultimately more moving

    Carole King was quite the talent. I had no idea her career was so vividly long. She wrote the original Locomotion, and also Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow, so memorably recorded by Amy Winehouse, in one of the best cover versions of anything ever

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuanbnnzXQ4
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    IanB2 said:

    Brexit and 21st-century biometric checks are killing off the romance of crossing borders for modern passengers looking for the nostalgia of the luxury train journey that inspired Agatha Christie and Hollywood.

    Belmond, the company that runs today’s Venice Simplon-Orient-Express (VSOE), has decided to drop the London-to-Folkestone leg of the route because it has become too difficult to cross the border to Calais.

    This is one Brexit negative I can't bring myself to get too excited about TBH. Anyone with enough money to burn to contemplate the astronomical price of travelling on that train will probably view this is an opportunity to do the journey over two nights instead of one, with a stay at a suite in the George V or the Paris Ritz. Nobody is going to suffer from it.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,544
    kinabalu said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Labour sources have apparently said they believe they are more like 10 to 12 points ahead, not the 18 points in the opinion polls.

    First poll in which Labour drop below a 10 point lead they will publicly shit their pants.
    I wouldn't. But I am a lot more relaxed with the mid teens.
    Have to wonder whether there will be more underpant damage done by scared Labourites or overexcited Conservatives.

    Either way, buy Depends.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,979
    Sean_F said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I’m spending my first ever night in Glastonbury, and it’s like being in The Wicker Man.

    I wonder if I should visit Asgard, The Magickal Apothecary, and ask them if they’ll sell me a dried foetus.

    Glasto has long been strange, and has got stranger over the last 15 years.
    Probably a good job that alternative healing doesn’t need to show proof of efficacy, or the towns economy would fold…

    (Oddly autocorrect turned Glasto into Glasgow, only just caught it in time…)
    I wonder if they practise human sacrifice in these parts.
    Feeling nervous? Don’t accept drinks from strangers…
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