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Which month will Sunak choose for the general election? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,613
edited April 2023 in General
imageWhich month will Sunak choose for the general election? – politicalbetting.com

One of the things about British politics at the moment is that there is little speculation about when Sunak will decide to go to the country. Normally in the fourth year after an election, you would expect that to be happening.

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,931
    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,060
    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,146
    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    I’m not sure we will have the bandwidth to cope if it is days apart from the US election.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/01/can-you-cope-with-two-massive-elections-at-the-same-time/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,146
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    I do rule it out.

    If Sunak does hold a campaign over Christmas the Tories will end up with fewer MPs than the Greens.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,748
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    I’m not sure we will have the bandwidth to cope if it is days apart from the US election.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/01/can-you-cope-with-two-massive-elections-at-the-same-time/
    Particularly not if BJO starts comparing Starmer with Trump...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,683
    Multiple scenarios:

    1. They can claim enough economic recovery to do a tax giveaway budget in the spring. Co-ordinate with the client media for a big putsch and thus hold an election in May. Simply shout "Labour have no plans" as Labour set out their plans and ignore that your own plans have already fallen apart before you finished announcing them

    2. Its still tough next Spring so they plan a summer blitz against nasty foreign invaders and evil wokeists, with an autumn statement giveaway leading into a November election.

    3. Continued calamity. The Nigel keeps featuring pre-records of himself on his dinghy shouting patriotic abuse at the small boats which continue to invade us. Lee Anderson shat himself on one of his GBeebies slots. ReFUK continue to menace and voters are telling 2019 intake MPs that they are going to punish them.

    At which point a panicked and desperate Tory Party decides to roll the dice. Rather than slide off to a big defeat, change the players. Back comes Boris, who despite his brief suspension from parliament has now been painted as the victim of a terrible stitch-up. A rerun of Boris politics - the big Christmas ad this year isn't John Lewis or Aldi, its Boris doing Love Actually again with some puppies. January election.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,466
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Back comes Boris, who despite his brief suspension from parliament has now been painted as the victim of a terrible stitch-up. A rerun of Boris politics - the big Christmas ad this year isn't John Lewis or Aldi, its Boris doing Love Actually again with some puppies. January election.

    This is the dystopian future TwistedFireStopper was warning us about on the last thread...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,440
    Morning all!

    I rather like RochdalePioneers last auction. Especially as I think it would fail miserably!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,343
    Late autumn next year my guess too, though May next year would coincide with the 2024 local elections
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,091
    From discussion on previous thread:


    Abe, Amazon, Biblio etc and second hand bookshops at the moment are, maybe accidentally, stout defenders of freedom of thought and liberty to look at texts as they were written.

    Because of this it is not difficult to get the Satanic Verses, Mein Kampf, and, uncensored, Richmal Crompton's 'William the Detective' (I am not making this bit up).

    It is characteristic of both left and right (especially the US right) that they wish to stop this. Just as it is characteristic of left and right that they have competing 'Free Speech' beliefs.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,197
    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Blimey…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-65086107

    One of Scotland's main police control rooms used a fake system to manipulate response time targets for eight years, according to documents seen by the BBC.

    These are the sorts of thing where generally no-one goes to prison. And these sorts of corruptions are more common than they should be. It is top people in the system who should be serving prison sentences for this kind of corrupt failure. Only then will values improve.

    Some low level people may lose their jobs.

    The person who was in charge of this will be moved to another, more responsible and better paid job.

    Brows will be furrowed. Lessons Will Be Learned.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,683
    Before anyone says "Boris is toast", stop and think about how many times that has been said. Despite everything the man is still here, will continue to still be here, and maintains a loyal fan base.

    Putting him back into Downing Street would be a total desperation move for the Tories. In more dignified times it wouldn't be remotely feasible. But this is the party of corrupt grifters, with mince MPs voting to detain the forrin just not in my constituency thanks, foaming on about global social conspiracies like local shops which have infested once proud places like Doncaster.

    Bring Back Boris - the man who won the 2019 election. The man who Got Brexit Done. The man who got all the big calls right. The vaccine. Ukraine. He's so much better than Playschool Sunak and the rest of the pygmies in the cabinet!

    Yes I know. Its bollocks. But these are fairy stories whispered to morons. Who want to hear fairy stories. They're watching Lee Anderson shat his pants on GBeebies and thinking it news. When you are desperate, you fall back on any option there is to turn things around.

    #BBB. January 2025.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,172
    One important question is whether Rishi subscribes to Boris's theory that winter elections are better for Conservatives because Tory voters will brave the cold while lazy Labour supporters stay warm and dry at home.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,060
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    I do rule it out.

    If Sunak does hold a campaign over Christmas the Tories will end up with fewer MPs than the Greens.
    But it wouldn’t be over Christmas. It would kick off on Thursday 2 January.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,219
    edited March 2023
    londonpubman said:

    17 October 2024. With the election announced Mon 16 September. A short, snappy campaign.

    You heard it here first!

    Mid-October sounds right. No way the government benefits from dragging things along after the clocks have gone back. Even their own activists will be annoyed if that happens, no-one wants to campaign in the dark.

    It only worked last time, because everyone was utterly fed up with what was happening in Parliament, and it was clear that the election needed to happen.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,953
    A spring election might well be their best electoral result - but as it's still likely to be a loss, they'll drag it out until the year end.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,683
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    One important question is whether Rishi subscribes to Boris's theory that winter elections are better for Conservatives because Tory voters will brave the cold while lazy Labour supporters stay warm and dry at home.

    Surely a simple change in voter ID requirements would do it. You can only vote if you present your Aga service book at the polling station.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,748
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    One important question is whether Rishi subscribes to Boris's theory that winter elections are better for Conservatives because Tory voters will brave the cold while lazy Labour supporters stay warm and dry at home.

    Warm? In these times?

    Dry, hopefully, as long as they or their landlords can afford roof repairs.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,719
    People are focused on the better recent economic news as providing a more advantageous backdrop for the Tories next year. But in the markets the focus is on US inflation and the Fed and there is a widespread expectation that one way or another the Fed will have to see the US falling into recession later this year to squeeze inflation out of the system. The likelihood of a soft landing for the US economy is generally seen as low. If that happens can we be confident that the UK economy won't follow the US into recession? I would be wary of thinking the economic backdrop in 18 months' time is necessarily going to be that supportive to the Conservatives' chances.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,731
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    I do rule it out.

    If Sunak does hold a campaign over Christmas the Tories will end up with fewer MPs than the Greens.
    But it wouldn’t be over Christmas. It would kick off on Thursday 2 January.
    There's an old mental puzzle about a prisoner who will be executed at dawn on one of the next seven days, but to make the punishment worse, he won't know which day it will be. In the story the prisoner starts laughing and says that he cannot be executed under those rules - if its the last day he would know for certain the day before - when he was executed. So that rules out the last day. But then it works back from there.

    Why do I write this here? Because if they try to wait until Jan 2025, the formal announcement won't need to be until Jan 2, but we will all know its happening and it will have started anyway,
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,091
    edited March 2023
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.

    But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.

    This suggests September or October for the election.


    Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,731
    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.

    But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.

    This suggests September or October for the election.


    Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
    Yep - I nicked mine from Johnny Ball - anyone remember him?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,748
    edited March 2023
    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.

    But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.

    This suggests September or October for the election.


    Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
    I am intrigued that you think a surprise test on Tudor history is as bad as being shot at dawn on a day to be determined.

    You must have had a really rubbish History teacher for there to be such trauma.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,731
    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.

    But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.

    This suggests September or October for the election.


    Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
    I am intrigued that you think a surprise test on Tudor history is as bad as being shot at dawn on a day to be determined.

    You must have had a really rubbish History teacher for there to be such trauma.
    Its in keeping with the attrition rate for those in the Tudor royal circle...
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 785
    What about taking a leaf from Mrs Thatcher?

    Spring 2024 Budget give away.
    May 2024 locals - test the temperature - if good press the button.
    June 2024 general election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,219
    turbotubbs said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.

    But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.

    This suggests September or October for the election.


    Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
    Yep - I nicked mine from Johnny Ball - anyone remember him?
    Think of a number.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,060
    edited March 2023
    Major and Brown left it until pretty much the end.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,748
    turbotubbs said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.

    But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.

    This suggests September or October for the election.


    Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
    I am intrigued that you think a surprise test on Tudor history is as bad as being shot at dawn on a day to be determined.

    You must have had a really rubbish History teacher for there to be such trauma.
    Its in keeping with the attrition rate for those in the Tudor royal circle...
    Surely you mean it's not on a Parr?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,197
    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.

    But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.

    This suggests September or October for the election.


    Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
    I am intrigued that you think a surprise test on Tudor history is as bad as being shot at dawn on a day to be determined.

    You must have had a really rubbish History teacher for there to be such trauma.
    Not every teacher can be of your calibre.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,748
    NickyBreakspear said:

    What about taking a leaf from Mrs Thatcher?

    Spring 2024 Budget give away.
    May 2024 locals - test the temperature - if good press the button.
    June 2024 general election.

    October 2024, financial crash...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,731
    ydoethur said:

    turbotubbs said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.

    But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.

    This suggests September or October for the election.


    Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
    I am intrigued that you think a surprise test on Tudor history is as bad as being shot at dawn on a day to be determined.

    You must have had a really rubbish History teacher for there to be such trauma.
    Its in keeping with the attrition rate for those in the Tudor royal circle...
    Surely you mean it's not on a Parr?
    It would be Aragon of me to think so. Howard it come to this?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,091
    turbotubbs said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.

    But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.

    This suggests September or October for the election.


    Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
    Yep - I nicked mine from Johnny Ball - anyone remember him?
    No shortage of analysis at all levels, such as these 36 pages, which John Major would describe as 'not unturgid'.:

    http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/19303/1/Surprise Exam 6.21.21.pdf




  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    People are focused on the better recent economic news as providing a more advantageous backdrop for the Tories next year. But in the markets the focus is on US inflation and the Fed and there is a widespread expectation that one way or another the Fed will have to see the US falling into recession later this year to squeeze inflation out of the system. The likelihood of a soft landing for the US economy is generally seen as low. If that happens can we be confident that the UK economy won't follow the US into recession? I would be wary of thinking the economic backdrop in 18 months' time is necessarily going to be that supportive to the Conservatives' chances.

    Remember that all the predictions on here in Autumn 2022 were that by Spring 2023 the UK would be in economic armageddon and that there was no chance of the economy recovering by the next GE.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,091
    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.

    But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.

    This suggests September or October for the election.


    Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
    I am intrigued that you think a surprise test on Tudor history is as bad as being shot at dawn on a day to be determined.

    You must have had a really rubbish History teacher for there to be such trauma.
    Not every teacher can be of your calibre.
    There is also the last biscuit problem. Which is the lady who wrote to McVitie's pointing out that the last biscuit in the packet often got crushed or broken, so it would be a better plan to leave it out.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,146
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    I do rule it out.

    If Sunak does hold a campaign over Christmas the Tories will end up with fewer MPs than the Greens.
    But it wouldn’t be over Christmas. It would kick off on Thursday 2 January.
    Doesn’t work.

    You need 25 working days between dissolution and election day.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,146
    Ooh the Commons Committee has given a 30 day suspension.

    By election incoming

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65123054
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,089
    turbotubbs said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    I do rule it out.

    If Sunak does hold a campaign over Christmas the Tories will end up with fewer MPs than the Greens.
    But it wouldn’t be over Christmas. It would kick off on Thursday 2 January.
    There's an old mental puzzle about a prisoner who will be executed at dawn on one of the next seven days, but to make the punishment worse, he won't know which day it will be. In the story the prisoner starts laughing and says that he cannot be executed under those rules - if its the last day he would know for certain the day before - when he was executed. So that rules out the last day. But then it works back from there.

    Why do I write this here? Because if they try to wait until Jan 2025, the formal announcement won't need to be until Jan 2, but we will all know its happening and it will have started anyway,
    John Major in 1997 officially anounced the election early so the (unofficial+official) campaign lasted IIRC eight weeks. As it was pretty much the last date allowed, everyone knew an election was coming soon anyway, and because Major turned out to be a better campaigner than expected in 92, he presumably thought having a very long campaign would be to his advantage. To be fair, the polls were so bad for the conservatives in early 97, John Major trying anything different couldn't have made things worse.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,748
    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.

    But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.

    This suggests September or October for the election.


    Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
    I am intrigued that you think a surprise test on Tudor history is as bad as being shot at dawn on a day to be determined.

    You must have had a really rubbish History teacher for there to be such trauma.
    Not every teacher can be of your calibre.
    Why thank you. I can live for two months on a good compliment.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,748
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooh the Commons Committee has given a 30 day suspension.

    By election incoming

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65123054

    You bastard. You might have said who it was before we all suffered that crushing disappointment of finding out it was Ferrier not Massive Johnson.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,146
    An early test for Yousaf.


  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,719
    NerysHughes said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    People are focused on the better recent economic news as providing a more advantageous backdrop for the Tories next year. But in the markets the focus is on US inflation and the Fed and there is a widespread expectation that one way or another the Fed will have to see the US falling into recession later this year to squeeze inflation out of the system. The likelihood of a soft landing for the US economy is generally seen as low. If that happens can we be confident that the UK economy won't follow the US into recession? I would be wary of thinking the economic backdrop in 18 months' time is necessarily going to be that supportive to the Conservatives' chances.

    Remember that all the predictions on here in Autumn 2022 were that by Spring 2023 the UK would be in economic armageddon and that there was no chance of the economy recovering by the next GE.
    Yeah that was a bit premature. The UK forecasters have been too gloomy. Personally I have always seen the end of this year as the real crunch point and I'd look to what is happening in the US as the key factor. The point is, the Fed has to get inflation down. Can that happen without a US recession? Unlikely. If the US goes into recession will the UK and EU follow? Probably. That's my thinking anyway.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooh the Commons Committee has given a 30 day suspension.

    By election incoming

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65123054

    That does set a rather interesting precedent...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,953
    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all...
    That's a logic fail.
    The surprise would be that they waited until the last day. Or the test might not happen at all.

    So no option is ruled out.

    (Admittedly the just doesn't happen option is a bit more problematic with general elections.)

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,434
    NerysHughes said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    People are focused on the better recent economic news as providing a more advantageous backdrop for the Tories next year. But in the markets the focus is on US inflation and the Fed and there is a widespread expectation that one way or another the Fed will have to see the US falling into recession later this year to squeeze inflation out of the system. The likelihood of a soft landing for the US economy is generally seen as low. If that happens can we be confident that the UK economy won't follow the US into recession? I would be wary of thinking the economic backdrop in 18 months' time is necessarily going to be that supportive to the Conservatives' chances.

    Remember that all the predictions on here in Autumn 2022 were that by Spring 2023 the UK would be in economic armageddon and that there was no chance of the economy recovering by the next GE.
    It might be fine in the People's Republic of Southampton, but have you been to Lidl lately?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,146
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooh the Commons Committee has given a 30 day suspension.

    By election incoming

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65123054

    That does set a rather interesting precedent...
    It does.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,146
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooh the Commons Committee has given a 30 day suspension.

    By election incoming

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65123054

    You bastard. You might have said who it was before we all suffered that crushing disappointment of finding out it was Ferrier not Massive Johnson.
    Hah.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,005
    turbotubbs said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.

    But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.

    This suggests September or October for the election.


    Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
    Yep - I nicked mine from Johnny Ball - anyone remember him?
    It reminds me of the green eyed logic problem, which I'm not going to post here as I will tie myself in knots, but which I love. if you don't know it I suggest looking it up.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,397
    On topic - I'd go for May 2024 if I was Sunak. Deferred 2020 local elections (i.e. those held in 2021) will be up in 2024 and are likely to be relatively poor for the Conservatives as they start from a fairly high base. That would set a tricky backdrop, and the nearer you get to the deadline, the louder the "running scared" jibes. I also don't expect radically improved news for the Government over the period - indeed, on things like immigration I think Sunak knows that his plans won't actually work to the satisfaction of the right wing.

    Off topic - very likely Rutherglen by-election will be huge for SNP and Labour.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,953
    ydoethur said:

    turbotubbs said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.

    But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.

    This suggests September or October for the election.


    Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
    I am intrigued that you think a surprise test on Tudor history is as bad as being shot at dawn on a day to be determined.

    You must have had a really rubbish History teacher for there to be such trauma.
    Its in keeping with the attrition rate for those in the Tudor royal circle...
    Surely you mean it's not on a Parr?
    You just Seymour puns than the rest of us.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,574
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Multiple scenarios:

    1. They can claim enough economic recovery to do a tax giveaway budget in the spring. Co-ordinate with the client media for a big putsch and thus hold an election in May. Simply shout "Labour have no plans" as Labour set out their plans and ignore that your own plans have already fallen apart before you finished announcing them

    2. Its still tough next Spring so they plan a summer blitz against nasty foreign invaders and evil wokeists, with an autumn statement giveaway leading into a November election.

    3. Continued calamity. The Nigel keeps featuring pre-records of himself on his dinghy shouting patriotic abuse at the small boats which continue to invade us. Lee Anderson shat himself on one of his GBeebies slots. ReFUK continue to menace and voters are telling 2019 intake MPs that they are going to punish them.

    At which point a panicked and desperate Tory Party decides to roll the dice. Rather than slide off to a big defeat, change the players. Back comes Boris, who despite his brief suspension from parliament has now been painted as the victim of a terrible stitch-up. A rerun of Boris politics - the big Christmas ad this year isn't John Lewis or Aldi, its Boris doing Love Actually again with some puppies. January election.

    Interesting. But it's October.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,604
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    An early test for Yousaf.


    Will Ferrier contest it?
    With Alba almost certainly putting up a candidate I'd imagine a strong second might be the best that the SNP could hope for.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,626
    Malmesbury said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Blimey…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-65086107

    One of Scotland's main police control rooms used a fake system to manipulate response time targets for eight years, according to documents seen by the BBC.

    These are the sorts of thing where generally no-one goes to prison. And these sorts of corruptions are more common than they should be. It is top people in the system who should be serving prison sentences for this kind of corrupt failure. Only then will values improve.

    Some low level people may lose their jobs.

    The person who was in charge of this will be moved to another, more responsible and better paid job.

    Brows will be furrowed. Lessons Will Be Learned.
    You do realise it stopped in 2015 so I suspect most will have moved , retired, resigned etc. Including the latest chancer who threw in the towel recently
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,756
    Thoughts on SKS and Labour council tax freeze policy this AM…. Hmmmm.

    Might be smart politics but I’m not sure this bodes well for a 2024 manifesto. Once again the tax on the 1% is being wheeled out to allow for a CT freeze.

    This constant reusing of windfall tax/tax on high earners could lay them open to claims of lacking seriousness.

    I still maintain they are the best option for 2024 and it would take a lot, put bluntly, for me to change my mind on that front but I am starting to have concerns that they haven’t really grasped just how fundamentally transformative their government needs to be to make the tough decisions needed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,953
    edited March 2023
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.

    But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.

    This suggests September or October for the election.


    Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
    My wife does a variant of that reasoning:

    Richard N: 'This milk is off'

    Mrs N: 'But it was OK yesterday'
    Yes, your fault for not drinking it then.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,574
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Before anyone says "Boris is toast", stop and think about how many times that has been said.

    Then I'll say it again. Boris is toast.

    If he had any remaining fans, he lost them at the Committee hearing. Radio silence from anybody giving him support.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,626
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooh the Commons Committee has given a 30 day suspension.

    By election incoming

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65123054

    That does set a rather interesting precedent...
    She will have been wishing she was an English MP and would not even have had an inquiry or more likely be in the cabinet by now.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    The election will not be after the clocks go back. December 2019 was a one-off.

    So it will be held before October 27th 2024.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,146
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    An early test for Yousaf.


    Will Ferrier contest it?
    With Alba almost certainly putting up a candidate I'd imagine a strong second might be the best that the SNP could hope for.
    It was a seat that flipped back to Labour in 2017.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Mexicanpete said:

    NerysHughes said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    People are focused on the better recent economic news as providing a more advantageous backdrop for the Tories next year. But in the markets the focus is on US inflation and the Fed and there is a widespread expectation that one way or another the Fed will have to see the US falling into recession later this year to squeeze inflation out of the system. The likelihood of a soft landing for the US economy is generally seen as low. If that happens can we be confident that the UK economy won't follow the US into recession? I would be wary of thinking the economic backdrop in 18 months' time is necessarily going to be that supportive to the Conservatives' chances.

    Remember that all the predictions on here in Autumn 2022 were that by Spring 2023 the UK would be in economic armageddon and that there was no chance of the economy recovering by the next GE.
    It might be fine in the People's Republic of Southampton, but have you been to Lidl lately?
    Read back some of the economic predictions for Spring 2023 on here 6 months ago.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,470
    algarkirk said:

    From discussion on previous thread:


    Abe, Amazon, Biblio etc and second hand bookshops at the moment are, maybe accidentally, stout defenders of freedom of thought and liberty to look at texts as they were written.

    Because of this it is not difficult to get the Satanic Verses, Mein Kampf, and, uncensored, Richmal Crompton's 'William the Detective' (I am not making this bit up).

    It is characteristic of both left and right (especially the US right) that they wish to stop this. Just as it is characteristic of left and right that they have competing 'Free Speech' beliefs.

    Is it difficult to get the Satanic Verses or Mein Kampf in the UK?
    Waterstones have Mein Kampf:
    https://www.waterstones.com/book/mein-kampf/adolf-hitler/donald-cameron-watt/9780712652544
    even though it is a very boring book, can't imagine there is much demand.
    Satanic Verses seems widely available.

    As for books aimed at children, I'm generally in favour of editing. I picked up some second-hand CDs of Michael Ende recently, started listening to one with my 8-year-old and had to switch it off because it contained language that was just too racist. Very annoying.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,704
    Carnyx said:


    "Edward Leigh, the Conservative MP whose Gainsborough constituency contains RAF Scampton, which was the base for the Dambusters bomber squadron in the second world war, said the council would seek an injunction to stop it being used and that he supported it."

    Will WW2 EVER be over for the English? What the fuck does what happened 80 years ago have to do with what happens to the site now?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooh the Commons Committee has given a 30 day suspension.

    By election incoming

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65123054

    You bastard. You might have said who it was before we all suffered that crushing disappointment of finding out it was Ferrier not Massive Johnson.
    He posted a link that included the word "Scotland". Twice.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited March 2023
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    I do rule it out.

    If Sunak does hold a campaign over Christmas the Tories will end up with fewer MPs than the Greens.
    Yes you're right. It's utter nonsense to suggest January 2025. The media will have a field day panning him for being so frit.

    The momentum will build at the end of this year and it will not be held after October 27th when the clocks go back. Always a depressing time for people and not therefore conducive to generating a good feeling.

    The final date for the next General Election is Thursday October 24th, 2024.
  • JohnBryantJohnBryant Posts: 14
    Sorry to hark back to discussion on the previous thread, but you can’t blame Cameron and Osborne for the use of the registered electorate, rather than population, as the basis for revising Parliamentary boundaries. This practice has been in place since long before either of them was born: it was first adopted for the interim review of exceptionally large seats that took effect at the 1945 GE and it has applied at every review since then. The last general review to be based on population rather than electorate was that of 1918, 105 years ago.

    Do try to keep up.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    NerysHughes said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    People are focused on the better recent economic news as providing a more advantageous backdrop for the Tories next year. But in the markets the focus is on US inflation and the Fed and there is a widespread expectation that one way or another the Fed will have to see the US falling into recession later this year to squeeze inflation out of the system. The likelihood of a soft landing for the US economy is generally seen as low. If that happens can we be confident that the UK economy won't follow the US into recession? I would be wary of thinking the economic backdrop in 18 months' time is necessarily going to be that supportive to the Conservatives' chances.

    Remember that all the predictions on here in Autumn 2022 were that by Spring 2023 the UK would be in economic armageddon and that there was no chance of the economy recovering by the next GE.
    Yeah that was a bit premature. The UK forecasters have been too gloomy. Personally I have always seen the end of this year as the real crunch point and I'd look to what is happening in the US as the key factor. The point is, the Fed has to get inflation down. Can that happen without a US recession? Unlikely. If the US goes into recession will the UK and EU follow? Probably. That's my thinking anyway.
    Economic forecasting is a mug's game, but it's reasonably likely that things will look a bit better in 2024, simply because inflation will very probably have fallen right back. That won't make anyone better off, of course, but it would mean that the bad news isn't so dominant. And Hunt may be able to slip a bit of cheer into the 2024 Budget.

    You are right that the outlook for the global economic background is not exactly rosy, but the comparison will be with the really dire impact on living standards of this year. Against that comparison, there might be some comfort for the government, albeit not much.

    Of course, stuff happens. Hardly anyone predicted the Ukraine invasion and its consequences. That sort of shock aside, the central baseline is, I think, a period of low growth punctuated by volatility.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,574
    numbertwelve said:

    Thoughts on SKS and Labour council tax freeze policy this AM…. Hmmmm.

    Might be smart politics but I’m not sure this bodes well for a 2024 manifesto. Once again the tax on the 1% is being wheeled out to allow for a CT freeze.

    This constant reusing of windfall tax/tax on high earners could lay them open to claims of lacking seriousness.

    I still maintain they are the best option for 2024 and it would take a lot, put bluntly, for me to change my mind on that front but I am starting to have concerns that they haven’t really grasped just how fundamentally transformative their government needs to be to make the tough decisions needed.

    It's not a "windfall" tax. It's a capitalism tax.

    Nick Palmer on the previous thread rather gave the game away. Anything not in an "ethical" pension is going to be fair game. Oil and gas - it's evil! Let's leave several billion barrels of the most intense energy source there is under our seabeds. Let the industry vanish too. Good riddance. Armaments makers? Same. House builders? They deserve all that is coming to them. Banks? Banks! Enough said. And don't get me started on private medical providers. As for education...

    It will be the same Old Labour, going after the same old targets. And they will wonder why unemployment will be higher when they leave office than they inherited. Yet again.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,219
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:


    "Edward Leigh, the Conservative MP whose Gainsborough constituency contains RAF Scampton, which was the base for the Dambusters bomber squadron in the second world war, said the council would seek an injunction to stop it being used and that he supported it."

    Will WW2 EVER be over for the English? What the fuck does what happened 80 years ago have to do with what happens to the site now?
    Well it was also the base for RAFAT until about a year ago. You know those red planes that are a great recruiting tool and represent the country abroad do nothing much?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,748
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:


    "Edward Leigh, the Conservative MP whose Gainsborough constituency contains RAF Scampton, which was the base for the Dambusters bomber squadron in the second world war, said the council would seek an injunction to stop it being used and that he supported it."

    Will WW2 EVER be over for the English? What the fuck does what happened 80 years ago have to do with what happens to the site now?
    It was the last thing of significance they won. We try to make allowances.

    (I'm now going to be endlessly reminded about how many tournaments the Welsh haven't won recently, aren't I?)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,953
    edited March 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:


    "Edward Leigh, the Conservative MP whose Gainsborough constituency contains RAF Scampton, which was the base for the Dambusters bomber squadron in the second world war, said the council would seek an injunction to stop it being used and that he supported it."

    Will WW2 EVER be over for the English? What the fuck does what happened 80 years ago have to do with what happens to the site now?
    They have plans for a "world class" heritage centre...
    https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2022/07/contract-bids-open-for-300m-raf-scampton-redevelopment/

    I apologise for the effect on your blood pressure.

    TBF, however risible the plans, the council did appear to have MoD agreement to purchase the site:
    https://www.west-lindsey.gov.uk/council-news/2023/03/council-appoints-development-partner-deliver-prosperous-sustainable-future-raf-scampton
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    MarqueeMark said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Before anyone says "Boris is toast", stop and think about how many times that has been said.

    Then I'll say it again. Boris is toast.

    If he had any remaining fans, he lost them at the Committee hearing. Radio silence from anybody giving him support.
    It's instructive that the only people boosting the idea of a Boris return are people blinded by hatred of the Tories in general and Boris in particular.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,767
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    An early test for Yousaf.


    I expect high turnout for this one. Lots riding on it, and the challenger is Labour. Interesting early test of unionist tactical voting - I assume the Tory vote was non-tactical last time so probably not that moveable but they may lose swing voters anyway.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooh the Commons Committee has given a 30 day suspension.

    By election incoming

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65123054

    That is going to be a severe test for both Starmer and Yousless, certainly one the latter could have done without. If Labour were to win there might be some panic amongst the central belt cadre of SNP MPs.

    I suspect Boris will not be entirely thrilled with such a robust response either. I have to dig deep to get any sympathy for Ferrier but this seems a little harsh.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all...
    That's a logic fail.
    The surprise would be that they waited until the last day. Or the test might not happen at all.

    So no option is ruled out.

    (Admittedly the just doesn't happen option is a bit more problematic with general elections.)

    Not if Trump wins again.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,704
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:


    "Edward Leigh, the Conservative MP whose Gainsborough constituency contains RAF Scampton, which was the base for the Dambusters bomber squadron in the second world war, said the council would seek an injunction to stop it being used and that he supported it."

    Will WW2 EVER be over for the English? What the fuck does what happened 80 years ago have to do with what happens to the site now?
    They have plans for a "world class" heritage centre...
    https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2022/07/contract-bids-open-for-300m-raf-scampton-redevelopment/

    I apologise for the effect on your blood pressure.
    What are the council going to do with a 3,000m runway in the middle of nowhere?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,953
    edited March 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:


    "Edward Leigh, the Conservative MP whose Gainsborough constituency contains RAF Scampton, which was the base for the Dambusters bomber squadron in the second world war, said the council would seek an injunction to stop it being used and that he supported it."

    Will WW2 EVER be over for the English? What the fuck does what happened 80 years ago have to do with what happens to the site now?
    They have plans for a "world class" heritage centre...
    https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2022/07/contract-bids-open-for-300m-raf-scampton-redevelopment/

    I apologise for the effect on your blood pressure.
    What are the council going to do with a 3,000m runway in the middle of nowhere?
    Don't ask sensible questions.

    It could be a Lincolnshire spaceport...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    edited March 2023
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    An early test for Yousaf.


    There are a lot of Unionist votes to be squeezed there. Labour really should win this. If they don't the SNP are once again proving a lot more resilient than some of us hope.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,743
    MarqueeMark said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Thoughts on SKS and Labour council tax freeze policy this AM…. Hmmmm.

    Might be smart politics but I’m not sure this bodes well for a 2024 manifesto. Once again the tax on the 1% is being wheeled out to allow for a CT freeze.

    This constant reusing of windfall tax/tax on high earners could lay them open to claims of lacking seriousness.

    I still maintain they are the best option for 2024 and it would take a lot, put bluntly, for me to change my mind on that front but I am starting to have concerns that they haven’t really grasped just how fundamentally transformative their government needs to be to make the tough decisions needed.

    It's not a "windfall" tax. It's a capitalism tax.

    Nick Palmer on the previous thread rather gave the game away. Anything not in an "ethical" pension is going to be fair game. Oil and gas - it's evil! Let's leave several billion barrels of the most intense energy source there is under our seabeds. Let the industry vanish too. Good riddance. Armaments makers? Same. House builders? They deserve all that is coming to them. Banks? Banks! Enough said. And don't get me started on private medical providers. As for education...

    It will be the same Old Labour, going after the same old targets. And they will wonder why unemployment will be higher when they leave office than they inherited. Yet again.
    Um, NONE of that is what I said - if you're going to make misleading arguments don't try to use me for them. My point was that pension funds aren't massively invested in oil and gas (and some aren't at all), so the argument that doing anything that helps people now because it will devastate their pensions N years hence is a feeble argument.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,683
    edited March 2023
    NerysHughes said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    People are focused on the better recent economic news as providing a more advantageous backdrop for the Tories next year. But in the markets the focus is on US inflation and the Fed and there is a widespread expectation that one way or another the Fed will have to see the US falling into recession later this year to squeeze inflation out of the system. The likelihood of a soft landing for the US economy is generally seen as low. If that happens can we be confident that the UK economy won't follow the US into recession? I would be wary of thinking the economic backdrop in 18 months' time is necessarily going to be that supportive to the Conservatives' chances.

    Remember that all the predictions on here in Autumn 2022 were that by Spring 2023 the UK would be in economic armageddon and that there was no chance of the economy recovering by the next GE.
    On paper we have avoided the worst of it. In reality do think most voters feel that to be the case? There is a growing gulf between the paper economy and the real economy.

    Example number 1 - Tories keep saying that inflation is going down. Whilst in reality it is going up. And below the headline rate growing, the lived rate on everyday items is much higher again.

    The problem with "we've made you better off" is when the voters know they are worse off and can prove it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,719
    Heathener said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    I do rule it out.

    If Sunak does hold a campaign over Christmas the Tories will end up with fewer MPs than the Greens.
    Yes you're right. It's utter nonsense to suggest January 2025. The media will have a field day panning him for being so frit.

    The momentum will build at the end of this year and it will not be held after October 27th when the clocks go back. Always a depressing time for people and not therefore conducive to generating a good feeling.

    The final date for the next General Election is Thursday October 24th, 2024.
    I disagree. There's precious little chance of Sunak generating enough good feeling for that too be the basis of re-election, so I don't think that will determine the date.

    The mood they will be aiming for is grim determination to keep Labour out. A dark November would help to dampen any optimism for change that Labour would hope to create.

    A depressed electorate will vote for the Tories. Labour need optimism (and perhaps a bit of anger).
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,683
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooh the Commons Committee has given a 30 day suspension.

    By election incoming

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65123054

    Key test for Labour. If they win the seat with a decent majority then fun times are ahead.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,216
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    turbotubbs said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    November. Sheesh, they're going to drag this out to the bitter end aren't they ?

    The bitter end would be 28 January 2025. Don’t rule it out.
    This hits the celebrated, and unresolved 'surprise test' problem in philosophy.

    Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.

    As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.

    But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.

    This suggests September or October for the election.


    Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
    I am intrigued that you think a surprise test on Tudor history is as bad as being shot at dawn on a day to be determined.

    You must have had a really rubbish History teacher for there to be such trauma.
    Its in keeping with the attrition rate for those in the Tudor royal circle...
    Surely you mean it's not on a Parr?
    You just Seymour puns than the rest of us.
    It’s a bit Rich piling on More.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,683
    MarqueeMark said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Multiple scenarios:

    1. They can claim enough economic recovery to do a tax giveaway budget in the spring. Co-ordinate with the client media for a big putsch and thus hold an election in May. Simply shout "Labour have no plans" as Labour set out their plans and ignore that your own plans have already fallen apart before you finished announcing them

    2. Its still tough next Spring so they plan a summer blitz against nasty foreign invaders and evil wokeists, with an autumn statement giveaway leading into a November election.

    3. Continued calamity. The Nigel keeps featuring pre-records of himself on his dinghy shouting patriotic abuse at the small boats which continue to invade us. Lee Anderson shat himself on one of his GBeebies slots. ReFUK continue to menace and voters are telling 2019 intake MPs that they are going to punish them.

    At which point a panicked and desperate Tory Party decides to roll the dice. Rather than slide off to a big defeat, change the players. Back comes Boris, who despite his brief suspension from parliament has now been painted as the victim of a terrible stitch-up. A rerun of Boris politics - the big Christmas ad this year isn't John Lewis or Aldi, its Boris doing Love Actually again with some puppies. January election.

    Interesting. But it's October.
    Why October? Would you not want an autumn budget statement first with final giveaways?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,423
    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    An early test for Yousaf.


    There are a lot of Unionist votes to be squeezed there. Labour really should win this. If they don't the SNP are once again proving a lot more resilient than some of us hope.
    But for most people, they will just see "Labour beat SNP in a central belt seat".

    This is a huge moment for the SNP and Labour. Labour must win it, and the SNP must get their expectation management right.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,574
    NickPalmer said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Thoughts on SKS and Labour council tax freeze policy this AM…. Hmmmm.

    Might be smart politics but I’m not sure this bodes well for a 2024 manifesto. Once again the tax on the 1% is being wheeled out to allow for a CT freeze.

    This constant reusing of windfall tax/tax on high earners could lay them open to claims of lacking seriousness.

    I still maintain they are the best option for 2024 and it would take a lot, put bluntly, for me to change my mind on that front but I am starting to have concerns that they haven’t really grasped just how fundamentally transformative their government needs to be to make the tough decisions needed.

    It's not a "windfall" tax. It's a capitalism tax.

    Nick Palmer on the previous thread rather gave the game away. Anything not in an "ethical" pension is going to be fair game. Oil and gas - it's evil! Let's leave several billion barrels of the most intense energy source there is under our seabeds. Let the industry vanish too. Good riddance. Armaments makers? Same. House builders? They deserve all that is coming to them. Banks? Banks! Enough said. And don't get me started on private medical providers. As for education...

    It will be the same Old Labour, going after the same old targets. And they will wonder why unemployment will be higher when they leave office than they inherited. Yet again.
    Um, NONE of that is what I said - if you're going to make misleading arguments don't try to use me for them. My point was that pension funds aren't massively invested in oil and gas (and some aren't at all), so the argument that doing anything that helps people now because it will devastate their pensions N years hence is a feeble argument.
    But you know I'm right....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,604
    edited March 2023
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:


    "Edward Leigh, the Conservative MP whose Gainsborough constituency contains RAF Scampton, which was the base for the Dambusters bomber squadron in the second world war, said the council would seek an injunction to stop it being used and that he supported it."

    Will WW2 EVER be over for the English? What the fuck does what happened 80 years ago have to do with what happens to the site now?
    Well it was also the base for RAFAT until about a year ago. You know those red planes that are a great recruiting tool and represent the country abroad do nothing much?
    I’ll yield to superior knowledge here (ie Dura Ace), but has anyone ever joined the RAF because of the Red Arrows? Even when I was a pre adolescent fanboi, an RA aircraft never made it into my gluey air wing of model aircraft (Folland Gnats in my day I think).
    I’d imagine the RAF are pretty oversubscribed for air crew candidates at the best of times.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,066
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    An early test for Yousaf.


    There are a lot of Unionist votes to be squeezed there. Labour really should win this. If they don't the SNP are once again proving a lot more resilient than some of us hope.
    But for most people, they will just see "Labour beat SNP in a central belt seat".

    This is a huge moment for the SNP and Labour. Labour must win it, and the SNP must get their expectation management right.
    It is certainly going to be one of the most exciting by elections for a while. We will get to see SKS on the campaign trail too.

    My guess is that Labour and the SNP will already have had paid activists on the ground for some time looking to generate local interest. This has been coming and the stakes are indeed high.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,747
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    An early test for Yousaf.


    There are a lot of Unionist votes to be squeezed there. Labour really should win this. If they don't the SNP are once again proving a lot more resilient than some of us hope.
    But for most people, they will just see "Labour beat SNP in a central belt seat".

    This is a huge moment for the SNP and Labour. Labour must win it, and the SNP must get their expectation management right.
    Interesting indeed. Especially *after* SKS, since the last GE, has gone full on Union Flegs behind the desk, anti-indy referendum, pro-Brexit. Which will have some effect on some Labour voters. So it's not all one way.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,683
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:


    "Edward Leigh, the Conservative MP whose Gainsborough constituency contains RAF Scampton, which was the base for the Dambusters bomber squadron in the second world war, said the council would seek an injunction to stop it being used and that he supported it."

    Will WW2 EVER be over for the English? What the fuck does what happened 80 years ago have to do with what happens to the site now?
    They have plans for a "world class" heritage centre...
    https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2022/07/contract-bids-open-for-300m-raf-scampton-redevelopment/

    I apologise for the effect on your blood pressure.
    What are the council going to do with a 3,000m runway in the middle of nowhere?
    1. Erect big tents
    2. Bring in refugees
    3. Dog patrols to keep refugees in / "patriotic" locals out
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,423
    OT but the paint job on the UK plc plane is horrible. Looks like a Ford Transit after 30 mins playing about in WordArt.

    Compare and contrast to Air Force One.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,747
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:


    "Edward Leigh, the Conservative MP whose Gainsborough constituency contains RAF Scampton, which was the base for the Dambusters bomber squadron in the second world war, said the council would seek an injunction to stop it being used and that he supported it."

    Will WW2 EVER be over for the English? What the fuck does what happened 80 years ago have to do with what happens to the site now?
    They have plans for a "world class" heritage centre...
    https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2022/07/contract-bids-open-for-300m-raf-scampton-redevelopment/

    I apologise for the effect on your blood pressure.
    What are the council going to do with a 3,000m runway in the middle of nowhere?
    Land the RAF BBMF Lanc (and one or two others) on it, and hold airshows, presumably. Same as at East Fortune, for instance.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,327
    numbertwelve said:

    Thoughts on SKS and Labour council tax freeze policy this AM…. Hmmmm.

    Might be smart politics but I’m not sure this bodes well for a 2024 manifesto. Once again the tax on the 1% is being wheeled out to allow for a CT freeze.

    This constant reusing of windfall tax/tax on high earners could lay them open to claims of lacking seriousness.

    I still maintain they are the best option for 2024 and it would take a lot, put bluntly, for me to change my mind on that front but I am starting to have concerns that they haven’t really grasped just how fundamentally transformative their government needs to be to make the tough decisions needed.

    Reeves needs to be careful with her promises for the use of never ending windfall taxes

    Labour's policy is to decimate the Scottish oil and gas industry with no new licences and high taxes resulting in much diminished taxes anyway

    Furthermore what happens next year when council taxes rise again plus this year's or is her idea to continue subsidising these rises which is our case this year was 9.9% as I posted earlier

    Of course she can make these promises knowing that she will not be in power to implement them so it is a free hit, it may be politics but it certainly is not economics
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 785
    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    An early test for Yousaf.


    There are a lot of Unionist votes to be squeezed there. Labour really should win this. If they don't the SNP are once again proving a lot more resilient than some of us hope.
    But for most people, they will just see "Labour beat SNP in a central belt seat".

    This is a huge moment for the SNP and Labour. Labour must win it, and the SNP must get their expectation management right.
    It is certainly going to be one of the most exciting by elections for a while. We will get to see SKS on the campaign trail too.

    My guess is that Labour and the SNP will already have had paid activists on the ground for some time looking to generate local interest. This has been coming and the stakes are indeed high.
    Labour should already be targeting this seat, given that they won it in 2017 and a potential recall would have been known about for several months. According to press reports they are focusing on 20 seats in Scotland https://inews.co.uk/news/labour-plans-target-snp-seats-scotland-mps-warn-complacency-2242316.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,747
    Theuniondivvie said:


    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:


    "Edward Leigh, the Conservative MP whose Gainsborough constituency contains RAF Scampton, which was the base for the Dambusters bomber squadron in the second world war, said the council would seek an injunction to stop it being used and that he supported it."

    Will WW2 EVER be over for the English? What the fuck does what happened 80 years ago have to do with what happens to the site now?
    Well it was also the base for RAFAT until about a year ago. You know those red planes that are a great recruiting tool and represent the country abroad do nothing much?
    I’ll yield to superior knowledge here (ie Dura Ace), but has anyone ever joined the RAF because of the Red Arrows? Even when I was a pre adolescent fanboi, an RA aircraft never made it into my gluey air wing of model aircraft (Folland Gnats in my day I think).
    I’d imagine the RAF are pretty oversubscribed for air crew candidates at the best of times.
    No bombs or machine guns, either. Deffo reduced the play value.

    Airfix always had a Gnat or a Hawk in their catalogue, as I recall, but a quick check shows that they have gone overboard, if that is the right term for a crab fat air force, in recent years.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited March 2023
    If things go well for Con they may go for a June 2024 election after a giveaway budget.

    If things don't improve much or go badly then it'll be October 2024.

    If things go very badly it could be January 2025.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,106
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    An early test for Yousaf.


    SNP will be screwed
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,005
    GIN1138 said:

    If things go well for Con they may go for a June 2024 election after giveaway budget.

    If things don't improve much or go badly then it'll be October 2024.

    If things go very badly it could be January 2025.

    Good job Boris isn't still there. He might have tried for a date after January 2025.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,219
    Theuniondivvie said:


    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:


    "Edward Leigh, the Conservative MP whose Gainsborough constituency contains RAF Scampton, which was the base for the Dambusters bomber squadron in the second world war, said the council would seek an injunction to stop it being used and that he supported it."

    Will WW2 EVER be over for the English? What the fuck does what happened 80 years ago have to do with what happens to the site now?
    Well it was also the base for RAFAT until about a year ago. You know those red planes that are a great recruiting tool and represent the country abroad do nothing much?
    I’ll yield to superior knowledge here (ie Dura Ace), but has anyone ever joined the RAF because of the Red Arrows? Even when I was a pre adolescent fanboi, an RA aircraft never made it into my gluey air wing of model aircraft (Folland Gnats in my day I think).
    I’d imagine the RAF are pretty oversubscribed for air crew candidates at the best of times.
    Anecdotal evidence I know, but they definitely piqued my interest in planes at the 1988 Farnborough airshow. The Reds, and standing right behind Concorde as it took off!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,931
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Thoughts on SKS and Labour council tax freeze policy this AM…. Hmmmm.

    Might be smart politics but I’m not sure this bodes well for a 2024 manifesto. Once again the tax on the 1% is being wheeled out to allow for a CT freeze.

    This constant reusing of windfall tax/tax on high earners could lay them open to claims of lacking seriousness.

    I still maintain they are the best option for 2024 and it would take a lot, put bluntly, for me to change my mind on that front but I am starting to have concerns that they haven’t really grasped just how fundamentally transformative their government needs to be to make the tough decisions needed.

    Reeves needs to be careful with her promises for the use of never ending windfall taxes

    Labour's policy is to decimate the Scottish oil and gas industry with no new licences and high taxes resulting in much diminished taxes anyway

    Furthermore what happens next year when council taxes rise again plus this year's or is her idea to continue subsidising these rises which is our case this year was 9.9% as I posted earlier

    Of course she can make these promises knowing that she will not be in power to implement them so it is a free hit, it may be politics but it certainly is not economics
    Your 10% Conwy council tax increase will still mean a band D is sub 2k. You should see what anywhere in Nottinghamshire charges !
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