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Which month will Sunak choose for the general election? – politicalbetting.com
Which month will Sunak choose for the general election? – politicalbetting.com
One of the things about British politics at the moment is that there is little speculation about when Sunak will decide to go to the country. Normally in the fourth year after an election, you would expect that to be happening.
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https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/01/can-you-cope-with-two-massive-elections-at-the-same-time/
If Sunak does hold a campaign over Christmas the Tories will end up with fewer MPs than the Greens.
1. They can claim enough economic recovery to do a tax giveaway budget in the spring. Co-ordinate with the client media for a big putsch and thus hold an election in May. Simply shout "Labour have no plans" as Labour set out their plans and ignore that your own plans have already fallen apart before you finished announcing them
2. Its still tough next Spring so they plan a summer blitz against nasty foreign invaders and evil wokeists, with an autumn statement giveaway leading into a November election.
3. Continued calamity. The Nigel keeps featuring pre-records of himself on his dinghy shouting patriotic abuse at the small boats which continue to invade us. Lee Anderson shat himself on one of his GBeebies slots. ReFUK continue to menace and voters are telling 2019 intake MPs that they are going to punish them.
At which point a panicked and desperate Tory Party decides to roll the dice. Rather than slide off to a big defeat, change the players. Back comes Boris, who despite his brief suspension from parliament has now been painted as the victim of a terrible stitch-up. A rerun of Boris politics - the big Christmas ad this year isn't John Lewis or Aldi, its Boris doing Love Actually again with some puppies. January election.
You heard it here first!
I rather like RochdalePioneers last auction. Especially as I think it would fail miserably!!
Abe, Amazon, Biblio etc and second hand bookshops at the moment are, maybe accidentally, stout defenders of freedom of thought and liberty to look at texts as they were written.
Because of this it is not difficult to get the Satanic Verses, Mein Kampf, and, uncensored, Richmal Crompton's 'William the Detective' (I am not making this bit up).
It is characteristic of both left and right (especially the US right) that they wish to stop this. Just as it is characteristic of left and right that they have competing 'Free Speech' beliefs.
The person who was in charge of this will be moved to another, more responsible and better paid job.
Brows will be furrowed. Lessons Will Be Learned.
Putting him back into Downing Street would be a total desperation move for the Tories. In more dignified times it wouldn't be remotely feasible. But this is the party of corrupt grifters, with mince MPs voting to detain the forrin just not in my constituency thanks, foaming on about global social conspiracies like local shops which have infested once proud places like Doncaster.
Bring Back Boris - the man who won the 2019 election. The man who Got Brexit Done. The man who got all the big calls right. The vaccine. Ukraine. He's so much better than Playschool Sunak and the rest of the pygmies in the cabinet!
Yes I know. Its bollocks. But these are fairy stories whispered to morons. Who want to hear fairy stories. They're watching Lee Anderson shat his pants on GBeebies and thinking it news. When you are desperate, you fall back on any option there is to turn things around.
#BBB. January 2025.
It only worked last time, because everyone was utterly fed up with what was happening in Parliament, and it was clear that the election needed to happen.
Dry, hopefully, as long as they or their landlords can afford roof repairs.
Why do I write this here? Because if they try to wait until Jan 2025, the formal announcement won't need to be until Jan 2, but we will all know its happening and it will have started anyway,
Which is: Teacher: 'During this term you shall have surprise test on Tudor History'.
As it is a surprise it can't be the last day of term; so it can't be the day before, etc and so on for each day. So there can't be a surprise test at all.
But in reality there can. Elections are the same. Until the last three weeks - when it can't be a surprise. Surprise is important for the party in government.
This suggests September or October for the election.
Edit: I see turbotubbs has been thinking the same.
You must have had a really rubbish History teacher for there to be such trauma.
Spring 2024 Budget give away.
May 2024 locals - test the temperature - if good press the button.
June 2024 general election.
http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/19303/1/Surprise Exam 6.21.21.pdf
Richard N: 'This milk is off'
Mrs N: 'But it was OK yesterday'
You need 25 working days between dissolution and election day.
By election incoming
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65123054
The surprise would be that they waited until the last day. Or the test might not happen at all.
So no option is ruled out.
(Admittedly the just doesn't happen option is a bit more problematic with general elections.)
Off topic - very likely Rutherglen by-election will be huge for SNP and Labour.
With Alba almost certainly putting up a candidate I'd imagine a strong second might be the best that the SNP could hope for.
Might be smart politics but I’m not sure this bodes well for a 2024 manifesto. Once again the tax on the 1% is being wheeled out to allow for a CT freeze.
This constant reusing of windfall tax/tax on high earners could lay them open to claims of lacking seriousness.
I still maintain they are the best option for 2024 and it would take a lot, put bluntly, for me to change my mind on that front but I am starting to have concerns that they haven’t really grasped just how fundamentally transformative their government needs to be to make the tough decisions needed.
If he had any remaining fans, he lost them at the Committee hearing. Radio silence from anybody giving him support.
So it will be held before October 27th 2024.
Waterstones have Mein Kampf:
https://www.waterstones.com/book/mein-kampf/adolf-hitler/donald-cameron-watt/9780712652544
even though it is a very boring book, can't imagine there is much demand.
Satanic Verses seems widely available.
As for books aimed at children, I'm generally in favour of editing. I picked up some second-hand CDs of Michael Ende recently, started listening to one with my 8-year-old and had to switch it off because it contained language that was just too racist. Very annoying.
The momentum will build at the end of this year and it will not be held after October 27th when the clocks go back. Always a depressing time for people and not therefore conducive to generating a good feeling.
The final date for the next General Election is Thursday October 24th, 2024.
Do try to keep up.
You are right that the outlook for the global economic background is not exactly rosy, but the comparison will be with the really dire impact on living standards of this year. Against that comparison, there might be some comfort for the government, albeit not much.
Of course, stuff happens. Hardly anyone predicted the Ukraine invasion and its consequences. That sort of shock aside, the central baseline is, I think, a period of low growth punctuated by volatility.
Nick Palmer on the previous thread rather gave the game away. Anything not in an "ethical" pension is going to be fair game. Oil and gas - it's evil! Let's leave several billion barrels of the most intense energy source there is under our seabeds. Let the industry vanish too. Good riddance. Armaments makers? Same. House builders? They deserve all that is coming to them. Banks? Banks! Enough said. And don't get me started on private medical providers. As for education...
It will be the same Old Labour, going after the same old targets. And they will wonder why unemployment will be higher when they leave office than they inherited. Yet again.
(I'm now going to be endlessly reminded about how many tournaments the Welsh haven't won recently, aren't I?)
https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2022/07/contract-bids-open-for-300m-raf-scampton-redevelopment/
I apologise for the effect on your blood pressure.
TBF, however risible the plans, the council did appear to have MoD agreement to purchase the site:
https://www.west-lindsey.gov.uk/council-news/2023/03/council-appoints-development-partner-deliver-prosperous-sustainable-future-raf-scampton
I suspect Boris will not be entirely thrilled with such a robust response either. I have to dig deep to get any sympathy for Ferrier but this seems a little harsh.
It could be a Lincolnshire spaceport...
Example number 1 - Tories keep saying that inflation is going down. Whilst in reality it is going up. And below the headline rate growing, the lived rate on everyday items is much higher again.
The problem with "we've made you better off" is when the voters know they are worse off and can prove it.
The mood they will be aiming for is grim determination to keep Labour out. A dark November would help to dampen any optimism for change that Labour would hope to create.
A depressed electorate will vote for the Tories. Labour need optimism (and perhaps a bit of anger).
This is a huge moment for the SNP and Labour. Labour must win it, and the SNP must get their expectation management right.
I’d imagine the RAF are pretty oversubscribed for air crew candidates at the best of times.
My guess is that Labour and the SNP will already have had paid activists on the ground for some time looking to generate local interest. This has been coming and the stakes are indeed high.
2. Bring in refugees
3. Dog patrols to keep refugees in / "patriotic" locals out
Compare and contrast to Air Force One.
Labour's policy is to decimate the Scottish oil and gas industry with no new licences and high taxes resulting in much diminished taxes anyway
Furthermore what happens next year when council taxes rise again plus this year's or is her idea to continue subsidising these rises which is our case this year was 9.9% as I posted earlier
Of course she can make these promises knowing that she will not be in power to implement them so it is a free hit, it may be politics but it certainly is not economics
Airfix always had a Gnat or a Hawk in their catalogue, as I recall, but a quick check shows that they have gone overboard, if that is the right term for a crab fat air force, in recent years.
If things don't improve much or go badly then it'll be October 2024.
If things go very badly it could be January 2025.