They didn't really have much of a choice. Reg Ashton was remotely operated by Salmond using an app and Forbes was Vanilla ISIS with antediluvian cultural values. So it had to be the other one. Good luck to him because he's going to need it.
lol yes he is. And he hasn't shown any sign at all of having the brain or the political antennae to be lucky.
@malcolmg how does your party try and gain from this? Sturgeon looked and sounded like a leader even if in practice that wasn't the case. Alba doesn't seem to be big enough to even stand candidates everywhere never mind win votes - will there now be a broad offer made to the many SNP members walking to come and join? I thought Forbes had a similar perspective to Salmond in terms of how she saw Scotland.
Can you let me know in a couple of sentences what this result means pls.
TIA
Smart arse response: Humza is now leader of the SNP. He's also very strong odds on to be next FM.
Less smartarse, he will really have to grow on the job (which unlike that weirdo Truss I think he may be capable of doing) or there'll be another leadership election after a bad result, eg the next UK GE.
Thanks but what does it mean for the independence aspirations of the SNP and the balance of Scottish politics?
What about a header, while we're at it?!
Thanks for vote of confidence, but a full time job and trying to nurse a small business into life atm. If inspiration strikes I'll let you know, but puerile barbs and the odd nugget is all I can manage just now!
Can you let me know in a couple of sentences what this result means pls.
TIA
Smart arse response: Humza is now leader of the SNP. He's also very strong odds on to be next FM.
Less smartarse, he will really have to grow on the job (which unlike that weirdo Truss I think he may be capable of doing) or there'll be another leadership election after a bad result, eg the next UK GE.
What does the SNP's constitution say about the process for challenging a sitting SNP leader?
Off topic and fwiw, a friend of mine who is in the process of rowing the Atlantic (3,000 miles), is nearing the end of his journey, and is now 10 miles away from Falmouth Harbour, Antigua expected to hit shore in around five hours time.
At times the nearest human being to him was on the International Space Station.
Can I just thank all the right wing Unionists, almost all of whom don't have a vote in Scotland let alone in the leadership election, for their slobbering over Kate and hating on Humza. It was all most persuasive.
I wonder if it was deliberate move, by the horrible Spectator Mob - to praise Forbes to the skies, and KEEP mentioning her religious views, so the progressive SNP members would reluctantly turn down the most obviously talented candidate, in favour of this Woke knob Yousaf
You've been stitched up and kippered by the nasty rightwing English intellgentsia
Those "rightwing English intellgentsia" types with their sophisticated political critiques are just too damn clever.
Some comments on Wings over Scotland after this result
'What a crock!
Bye-bye SNP, bye-bye…
Don’t let the door hit your ar$e on the way out of Scotland’s political scene.
Humbug Yousless… Ha-ha-ha! Good luck! You’ll fricking need it!'
'LIke I said today is the day the SNP died.'
'Today we witness the SNP demise as a party and Scotland independence movement dead and buried for good.' ' …And so the longest suicide note in history is signed off by the SNP.'
'Well fuck me. What an absolute disaster. PLEASE ALBA, stand candidates in every constituency. Otherwise I’m going to have to spoil my ballot.' https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-hollow-crown/
As his own posts have been pretty clear, he doesn't expect that there are many SNP readers of his site left.
Off topic and fwiw, a friend of mine who is in the process of rowing the Atlantic (3,000 miles), is nearing the end of his journey, and is now 10 miles away from Falmouth Harbour, Antigua expected to hit shore in around five hours time.
At times the nearest human being to him was on the International Space Station.
Not heading all the way to the mainland? Pfff, lightweight.
That is the worst possible result for the Nats. A deeply uncharismatic new leader with an off putting demeanour, winning by a disputable and controversially narrow margin over a lovely young Christian lady, in an election envenomed with accusations of fixing, and fraud
SUPERB
I think a 52-48 win by Forbes on second preferences, where she was behind on first preferences, would have been worse for the SNP.
A lot of the younger SNP members and supporters would have found it very hard to rally behind Forbes, and she didn't have strong support amongst MSPs either.
Yousaf is definitely the, "don't rock the boat," candidate, so a dramatic Truss-style implosion is least likely.
Agree. The two front runners are flawed in their different ways. The one they chose is less divisive and therefore less of a direct threat to the party, which presumably the members care about.
But the party is all about indy. You got the sense Forbes was clever enough to steer a new direction to indy, given the chance. Yousaf is dim and he will not be able to reverse out of the Sturgeon cul de sac
Can you let me know in a couple of sentences what this result means pls.
TIA
Smart arse response: Humza is now leader of the SNP. He's also very strong odds on to be next FM.
Less smartarse, he will really have to grow on the job (which unlike that weirdo Truss I think he may be capable of doing) or there'll be another leadership election after a bad result, eg the next UK GE.
Thanks but what does it mean for the independence aspirations of the SNP and the balance of Scottish politics?
What about a header, while we're at it?!
Thanks for vote of confidence, but a full time job and trying to nurse a small business into life atm. If inspiration strikes I'll let you know, but puerile barbs and the odd nugget is all I can manage just now!
OK give me the two line version then. What does it mean for the SNP's aspirations for Scottish independence.
Can you let me know in a couple of sentences what this result means pls.
TIA
Smart arse response: Humza is now leader of the SNP. He's also very strong odds on to be next FM.
Less smartarse, he will really have to grow on the job (which unlike that weirdo Truss I think he may be capable of doing) or there'll be another leadership election after a bad result, eg the next UK GE.
What does the SNP's constitution say about the process for challenging a sitting SNP leader?
Dunno tbh. I'd expect the scenario to be more like someone realising their time was up through self knowledge or 'persuasion', and then the whole process starting again.
Could Alba be the largest political party in the world that has never won any election of any type? Even the English Democrats managed to sneak on to the council in some leaver shit hole.
Off topic and fwiw, a friend of mine who is in the process of rowing the Atlantic (3,000 miles), is nearing the end of his journey, and is now 10 miles away from Falmouth Harbour, Antigua expected to hit shore in around five hours time.
At times the nearest human being to him was on the International Space Station.
Not heading all the way to the mainland? Pfff, lightweight.
The call of his first Wadadli in months obviously too strong.
Could Alba be the largest political party in the world that has never won any election of any type? Even the English Democrats managed to sneak on to the council in some leaver shit hole.
Monster Raving Loony have, or at least had, several seats around the country. They even won the mayoral race in one small Devon town.
In the 2015 election there was a conservative poster campaign showing Ed Miliband in the pocket of Alex Salmon. This was a feasible proposition, inferring Alex as a strong politician with Ed taking orders.
I doubt that a similar poster would work with Humza and Keir.
At the end of the day if you get 48% in the first round it's damn hard to lose.
Not an instant transfer situation, but David Perdue lost in a Senate runoff election after getting 49.7% in the first round.
Similarly, in a Maldivan Presidential election the leader in the first round got 46.9% in round 1, then 48.6% in round 2 (his opponent had 29.7% in the first round).
Can I just thank all the right wing Unionists, almost all of whom don't have a vote in Scotland let alone in the leadership election, for their slobbering over Kate and hating on Humza. It was all most persuasive.
I wonder if it was deliberate move, by the horrible Spectator Mob - to praise Forbes to the skies, and KEEP mentioning her religious views, so the progressive SNP members would reluctantly turn down the most obviously talented candidate, in favour of this Woke knob Yousaf
You've been stitched up and kippered by the nasty rightwing English intellgentsia
Those "rightwing English intellgentsia" types with their sophisticated political critiques are just too damn clever.
I know. They scare me. Perfidious yet superclever. A dangerous mix
Alternative take: this is really good news for the Scottish Greens.
A lot of the flak that Green ministers have had to endure will now be directed at Yousaf - he doesn't (yet?) have that Sturgeon/Salmond invincibility.
That Forbes got 48% suggests that the big drop in membership wasn't GRR protest, but younger people who got involved with the SNP around 2014. These are natural Green voters/activists.
Given all the drug taking around and about I'd have thought that laughing gas is just a deckchair move by the govt.
In Israel I've not been following save to see that there are demonstrations in London about it. What has Netanyahu done? Is he saying that the courts can't strike down government legislation? In which case is this something we have touched on previously whereby a democratically-elected government is trying to abolish elections?
As for the demonstrations in London about it it's interesting that these are presumably British Jews vociferously protesting about Israel and hence it is easy to see the complications of trying to separate out Israel and the Jews.
The laughing gas move is a joke, appropriately. Yet again the government overrules the scientists in a populist authoritarian knee-jerk response. For a government that is supposedly so anti cancel culture, they certainly seem to like banning things and telling people what they can and can't do.
The politicians absolutely should be able to "overrule" scientists. We've just seen what happens when they give into the Cult of the Expert.
No one's arguing they shouldn't be able to.
OLB seems to be.
As, indeed, did most of the country in 2020-1.
Not really. You've simply extrapolated what I have said with respect to one issue, applied it to a different issue, and in addition made out that I've said something I haven't. I didn't say government shouldn't be able to overrule scientific advice, and indeed this isn't my position. I said that in this case they've gone against the advice of their scientists in order to chase tabloid headlines. It's stupid policymaking and will cost the taxpayer more money, further waste police time and gum up the legal system, strengthen criminal gangs and quite possibly kill people. I've offered no opinion on lockdown policy but I would say that while scientific advice should be absolutely front and centre during a global pandemic ultimately it is for our political leaders to decide how to proceed. So I don't think I hold the views you're trying to ascribe to me.
Essentially you're criticising them for weighing up expert advice against what they think will be popular and pluimping for the latter option.
Of course they've done that - they're politicians!
Good politicians get out in front of public opinion, do what they think will be best for the whole country and try to shape opinion through action and argument. The fact that this government operates as you suggest is why this country is becoming more of a shithole every day.
Well, never let it be said that you're not an optimist.
By your standards, we have no good politicians. Sir Keir has had, for at least the last year, the perfect opportunity to act as you say a good politician does. Instead, cheered on by his party's supporters, he has deliberately done and said as little as possible, focusing on trying to win the next election by default.
That's fair. He is overly cautious. I didn't vote for him as leader. The Tories need to go but I don't hold out great hopes for the next Labour government, or indeed for the long term future of this country. We seem to be permanently in thrall to ill-informed voters and their worst prejudices, with our politicians never missing an opportunity to make a stupid, short-sighted decision. As you might gather, I don't think I am an optimist.
That's the problem with democracy - ill-informed voters.
There is merit in the Shell, Unilever and other multinationals method. The top management emerge, promoted by their peers. Employees and customers can't vote for them. Though shareholders in theory could remove them, in practice they don't. China has a similar system. It competes with democracy. There are pros and cons.
I still think democracy is the best system both morally and in terms of outcomes, but it needs to be combined with well informed voters and enlightened political leadership to deliver the best results. Right now this country seems to be caught in a downwards spiral of angry, ill informed voters, pandering and opportunistic politicians and stupid policies. It is very depressing.
Morally - I prefer democracy, but that's the way I've been brought up. On outcomes It's not clear that democracy wins: Economic GDP Life expectancy China 59 in 1970, 77 now and growing. USA 71 in 1970, 79 now and flat.
On gdp per head both the US and Japan are well ahead of China, the Chinese birthrate is also lower even than most western Nations and China has fewer immigrants percentage wise too
GDP per head is growing much faster in China than US or Japan. Birthrate is an odd measure. Is a low birthrate good or bad? Depends on the context.
Well course it is because it starts from a much lower level.
If you want to grow gdp overall significantly relative to other nations rather than just gdp per capita then you need a well above replacement level birthrate.
Democratic India will likely thus have overtaken China in terms of gdp by 2050 as it has a much higher birthrate. Nigeria is also rapidly advancing up the gdp rankings because of its high birthrate
What metrics would you use to measure the relative outcomes of democrat nations versus the Chinese (and multinational company) approach?
Gdp and wealth per head, education levels, personal freedom and liberty
A mere passing blip, I'm sure.
If we had Chinese levels of repression you would already be in prison for challenging the authority of the UK government on a public forum
Missed this one earlier, but whether a jest or serious the idea we should measure our own openness against that of China, rather than those who are more open and free, is pretty astonishing.
No doubt in China they take comfort that they are at least not North Korea.
Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:
Yousaf 1.34 Forbes 3.45
An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is
I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!
Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour? I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
Speaking for Labour, and setting aside the independence question (on which I'm neutral), I don't think we care who wins. The key thing is that Sturgeon has gone. She was a formidable opponent, and her departure improves Labour's chances of making progress in Scotland, I think.
Yes I think that's right. She has fucked the independence movement, largely it seems because there is not the strength of feeling for independence which would have sustained her continued effort.
And as far as you are concerned, there is unlikely to be posters of SKS in the pocket of Forbes/Hamza because like me, 99% of people wouldn't recognise either if they were standing in front of them.
Whilst that's true now, there's still plenty of time before the election.
Maybe.
People were only just getting used to the grumpy git at PMQs asking questions about Scotland like nothing so much as Pte Frazer off the telly's Dad's Army.
Whatever his name is/was.
The great Scottish actor, John Laurie, who was exactly like that in real life.
Sturgeon wins again - drove out juuuust enough Members so that in a Members vote enough loyalists remain to defeat Ash 'Loony Tunes' Regan and Kate 'Thou shalt burn in the fires of hell' Forbes.
That is the worst possible result for the Nats. A deeply uncharismatic new leader with an off putting demeanour, winning by a disputable and controversially narrow margin over a lovely young Christian lady, in an election envenomed with accusations of fixing, and fraud
SUPERB
I think a 52-48 win by Forbes on second preferences, where she was behind on first preferences, would have been worse for the SNP.
A lot of the younger SNP members and supporters would have found it very hard to rally behind Forbes, and she didn't have strong support amongst MSPs either.
Yousaf is definitely the, "don't rock the boat," candidate, so a dramatic Truss-style implosion is least likely.
Agree. The two front runners are flawed in their different ways. The one they chose is less divisive and therefore less of a direct threat to the party, which presumably the members care about.
But the party is all about indy. You got the sense Forbes was clever enough to steer a new direction to indy, given the chance. Yousaf is dim and he will not be able to reverse out of the Sturgeon cul de sac
So that will sow divisions by itself
The Forbes government would have imploded. She antagonises far too many people, when the SNP success is in being the broadest of all churches. Yousaf has a good chance of avoiding that fate. Losing support because he's crap is his problem.
Not a great choice for the SNP membership, but I suspect they went for the less bad option from their point of view. They might even get the chance of replacing him before it all collapses.
In the 2015 election there was a conservative poster campaign showing Ed Miliband in the pocket of Alex Salmon. This was a feasible proposition, inferring Alex as a strong politician with Ed taking orders.
I doubt that a similar poster would work with Humza and Keir.
Can you let me know in a couple of sentences what this result means pls.
TIA
Smart arse response: Humza is now leader of the SNP. He's also very strong odds on to be next FM.
Less smartarse, he will really have to grow on the job (which unlike that weirdo Truss I think he may be capable of doing) or there'll be another leadership election after a bad result, eg the next UK GE.
Thanks but what does it mean for the independence aspirations of the SNP and the balance of Scottish politics?
What about a header, while we're at it?!
Thanks for vote of confidence, but a full time job and trying to nurse a small business into life atm. If inspiration strikes I'll let you know, but puerile barbs and the odd nugget is all I can manage just now!
OK give me the two line version then. What does it mean for the SNP's aspirations for Scottish independence.
We're already stuck in a 'something will turn up' loop and I expect more of the same. Nevertheless despite loads of shouting from Angry Old Men In A Hurry For Indy about SNP inactivity in this area, none of them have come up with an altenative plan let alone a viable one. Alba being the personification of this view and an absolute electoral no show suggests to me that most indy supporting and indy curious voters can't really be bothered with Salmondian gestures and are in fact gradualists.
I'll give Regan a couple of crumbs of credit for actually coming out with a plan for independence; unfortunately it was gibberish.
Can you let me know in a couple of sentences what this result means pls.
TIA
Smart arse response: Humza is now leader of the SNP. He's also very strong odds on to be next FM.
Less smartarse, he will really have to grow on the job (which unlike that weirdo Truss I think he may be capable of doing) or there'll be another leadership election after a bad result, eg the next UK GE.
Thanks but what does it mean for the independence aspirations of the SNP and the balance of Scottish politics?
What about a header, while we're at it?!
Thanks for vote of confidence, but a full time job and trying to nurse a small business into life atm. If inspiration strikes I'll let you know, but puerile barbs and the odd nugget is all I can manage just now!
OK give me the two line version then. What does it mean for the SNP's aspirations for Scottish independence.
We're already stuck in a 'something will turn up' loop and I expect more of the same. Nevertheless despite loads of shouting from Angry Old Men In A Hurry For Indy about SNP inactivity in this area, none of them have come up with an altenative plan let alone a viable one. Alba being the personification of this view and an absolute electoral no show suggests to me that most indy supporting and indy curious voters can't really be bothered with Salmondian gestures and are in fact gradualists.
I'll give Regan a couple of crumbs of credit for actually coming out with a plan for independence; unfortunately it was gibberish.
Alternative take: this is really good news for the Scottish Greens.
A lot of the flak that Green ministers have had to endure will now be directed at Yousaf - he doesn't (yet?) have that Sturgeon/Salmond invincibility.
That Forbes got 48% suggests that the big drop in membership wasn't GRR protest, but younger people who got involved with the SNP around 2014. These are natural Green voters/activists.
Sounds right to me - bearing in mind the SGs have more in common with Tommy Sheridan's SSP than just being a simple tree-hugging and environment-protecting party.
But by the same token it means that Mr Yousaf has to take the centrist element in the party much more seriously now. Will be interesting to see what happens.
Sturgeon wins again - drove out juuuust enough Members so that in a Members vote enough loyalists remain to defeat Ash 'Loony Tunes' Regan and Kate 'Thou shalt burn in the fires of hell' Forbes.
Moral: If you insist on shooting at the Queen, not only must you make sure that you don't miss, you also need to have a convincing Pretender lined up. Kate Forbes wasn't that Pretender. Maybe they don't exist.
If Yousaf really is that Useless, how long before la Sturge doesn't deny that she would be happy to serve again if asked nicely enough...
Based on the recent IPSOS Poll, 46% of Scots have a favourable opinion of the outgoing SNP leader. Only 22% have a favourable opinion of the incoming one.
Can you let me know in a couple of sentences what this result means pls.
TIA
Smart arse response: Humza is now leader of the SNP. He's also very strong odds on to be next FM.
Less smartarse, he will really have to grow on the job (which unlike that weirdo Truss I think he may be capable of doing) or there'll be another leadership election after a bad result, eg the next UK GE.
Thanks but what does it mean for the independence aspirations of the SNP and the balance of Scottish politics?
What about a header, while we're at it?!
Thanks for vote of confidence, but a full time job and trying to nurse a small business into life atm. If inspiration strikes I'll let you know, but puerile barbs and the odd nugget is all I can manage just now!
OK give me the two line version then. What does it mean for the SNP's aspirations for Scottish independence.
We're already stuck in a 'something will turn up' loop
The irritating thing is that is also the unionist plan.
Based on the recent IPSOS Poll, 46% of Scots have a favourable opinion of the outgoing SNP leader. Only 22% have a favourable opinion of the incoming one.
Yousless really does have his work cut out.
How many will suddenly discover they have a favourable opinion of him after all, when next asked? Not as many as Sturgeon I have little doubt, but any bounce would be curious.
Sturgeon wins again - drove out juuuust enough Members so that in a Members vote enough loyalists remain to defeat Ash 'Loony Tunes' Regan and Kate 'Thou shalt burn in the fires of hell' Forbes.
Moral: If you insist on shooting at the Queen, not only must you make sure that you don't miss, you also need to have a convincing Pretender lined up. Kate Forbes wasn't that Pretender. Maybe they don't exist.
She is only 32 of course. Perhaps those extra 5 years of political experience clinched it for Yousaf - built up those internal connections and less 'just not ready' talk.
Based on the recent IPSOS Poll, 46% of Scots have a favourable opinion of the outgoing SNP leader. Only 22% have a favourable opinion of the incoming one.
Yousless really does have his work cut out.
How many will suddenly discover they have a favourable opinion of him after all, when next asked? Not as many as Sturgeon I have little doubt, but any bounce would be curious.
I think there's something in this. The SNP is a sticky party and Humza isn't that difficult to row behind. Not as easy as Sturgeon, but I maintain she was a rare political talent.
Can you let me know in a couple of sentences what this result means pls.
TIA
Smartarse response: Humza is now leader of the SNP. He's also very strong odds on to be next FM.
Less smartarse, he will really have to grow on the job (which unlike that weirdo Truss I think he may be capable of doing) or there'll be another leadership election after a bad result, eg the next UK GE.
Be a lot of Westminster seat warmers crapping themselves now, first chance for a kick in the bollocks is Westminster where no-one gives a toss anyway.
Is this where people make good use of distance and perspective to think deeply about her impact on Scotland, on Scottish politics, on the prospects for Independence, and come to a fair and balanced assessment thereof?
Or is it more where people who always hated her guts continue to slag her off now she's gone?
That is the worst possible result for the Nats. A deeply uncharismatic new leader with an off putting demeanour, winning by a disputable and controversially narrow margin over a lovely young Christian lady, in an election envenomed with accusations of fixing, and fraud
SUPERB
I think a 52-48 win by Forbes on second preferences, where she was behind on first preferences, would have been worse for the SNP.
A lot of the younger SNP members and supporters would have found it very hard to rally behind Forbes, and she didn't have strong support amongst MSPs either.
Yousaf is definitely the, "don't rock the boat," candidate, so a dramatic Truss-style implosion is least likely.
Agree. The two front runners are flawed in their different ways. The one they chose is less divisive and therefore less of a direct threat to the party, which presumably the members care about.
But the party is all about indy. You got the sense Forbes was clever enough to steer a new direction to indy, given the chance. Yousaf is dim and he will not be able to reverse out of the Sturgeon cul de sac
So that will sow divisions by itself
The Forbes government would have imploded. She antagonises far too many people, when the SNP success is in being the broadest of all churches. Yousaf has a good chance of avoiding that fate. Losing support because he's crap is his problem.
Not a great choice for the SNP membership, but I suspect they went for the less bad option from their point of view. They might even get the chance of replacing him before it all collapses.
But Yousaf is way out on the Wokey end of the spectrum - he supports gender self ID and all that stuff that Scottish voters loathe - the stuff that helped to hasten Sturgeon's sad and untimely end, which actually made me cry the other day
So he is NOT the broad church candidate, and he means indy goes in the freezer for many years. He is not going to inspire anyone to switch sides, unless he can surprise on the upside, like Liz Truss
He is also the continuity candidate of a cabal that is crumbling under allegations of corruption, which edge ever nearer to police action. Forbes, by contrast, would have been the clean slate candidate, able to say a plausible goodbye to all that shite. She is also, obviously, smarter - and surely more honest
Can you let me know in a couple of sentences what this result means pls.
TIA
Smart arse response: Humza is now leader of the SNP. He's also very strong odds on to be next FM.
Less smartarse, he will really have to grow on the job (which unlike that weirdo Truss I think he may be capable of doing) or there'll be another leadership election after a bad result, eg the next UK GE.
Thanks but what does it mean for the independence aspirations of the SNP and the balance of Scottish politics?
What about a header, while we're at it?!
They have not being trying for 8 years , with a useless Sturgeon sockpuppet now installed, why would chances improve. I can forecast now we will not see it for a long time.
Alternative take: this is really good news for the Scottish Greens.
A lot of the flak that Green ministers have had to endure will now be directed at Yousaf - he doesn't (yet?) have that Sturgeon/Salmond invincibility.
That Forbes got 48% suggests that the big drop in membership wasn't GRR protest, but younger people who got involved with the SNP around 2014. These are natural Green voters/activists.
Perhaps.
But remember that the Scottish Greens are also at the - shall we be generous - progressive end of the culture war.
Who do non Progressive Scots Nats vote for? How does the SNP keep the tent big enough?
They didn't really have much of a choice. Reg Ashton was remotely operated by Salmond using an app and Forbes was Vanilla ISIS with antediluvian cultural values. So it had to be the other one. Good luck to him because he's going to need it.
lol yes he is. And he hasn't shown any sign at all of having the brain or the political antennae to be lucky.
@malcolmg how does your party try and gain from this? Sturgeon looked and sounded like a leader even if in practice that wasn't the case. Alba doesn't seem to be big enough to even stand candidates everywhere never mind win votes - will there now be a broad offer made to the many SNP members walking to come and join? I thought Forbes had a similar perspective to Salmond in terms of how she saw Scotland.
You would expect that given circumstances anyone really interested in independence would go to Alba. However given these people ahev known teh skullduggery and stealing etc going on for considerable time you have to assume there are lots of stupid people as members. The only clever thing Sturgeon did was take control of everything and get the sheep to believe SNP was only vehicle for independence and she has milked it. ALBA can only keep trying to persuade real supporters that they are going nowhere with SNP and given 50K have left you wonder where they have gone to, likely given up mostly or to ALBA. Be a long hard slog I think.
Is this where people make good use of distance and perspective to think deeply about her impact on Scotland, on Scottish politics, on the prospects for Independence, and come to a fair and balanced assessment thereof?
Or is it more where people who always hated her guts continue to slag her off now she's gone?
This would be an interesting and valid point, if it was just evil clever English intelligentsia Spectator types slagging her off, but it ain't. Lots of Scots, indeed lots of ardent Scot Nats, are looking at her with more skeptical eyes
She resigned at a really weird moment, and she left behind a mess. And that's without actually examining her record as FM - as in: the person governing Scotland - which is seriously "imperfect"
That is the worst possible result for the Nats. A deeply uncharismatic new leader with an off putting demeanour, winning by a disputable and controversially narrow margin over a lovely young Christian lady, in an election envenomed with accusations of fixing, and fraud
SUPERB
I think a 52-48 win by Forbes on second preferences, where she was behind on first preferences, would have been worse for the SNP.
A lot of the younger SNP members and supporters would have found it very hard to rally behind Forbes, and she didn't have strong support amongst MSPs either.
Yousaf is definitely the, "don't rock the boat," candidate, so a dramatic Truss-style implosion is least likely.
Agree. The two front runners are flawed in their different ways. The one they chose is less divisive and therefore less of a direct threat to the party, which presumably the members care about.
But the party is all about indy. You got the sense Forbes was clever enough to steer a new direction to indy, given the chance. Yousaf is dim and he will not be able to reverse out of the Sturgeon cul de sac
So that will sow divisions by itself
The Forbes government would have imploded. She antagonises far too many people, when the SNP success is in being the broadest of all churches. Yousaf has a good chance of avoiding that fate. Losing support because he's crap is his problem.
Not a great choice for the SNP membership, but I suspect they went for the less bad option from their point of view. They might even get the chance of replacing him before it all collapses.
But Yousaf is way out on the Wokey end of the spectrum - he supports gender self ID and all that stuff that Scottish voters loathe - the stuff that helped to hasten Sturgeon's sad and untimely end, which actually made me cry the other day
So he is NOT the broad church candidate, and he means indy goes in the freezer for many years. He is not going to inspire anyone to switch sides, unless he can surprise on the upside, like Liz Truss
He is also the continuity candidate of a cabal that is crumbling under allegations of corruption, which edge ever nearer to police action. Forbes, by contrast, would have been the clean slate candidate, able to say a plausible goodbye to all that shite. She is also, obviously, smarter - and surely more honest
Oh dear. Oh dear. Och
This is the key point. If you were supremely arrogant you could say "we won 4 elections" and thus don't need to win anyone new. Oh yeah, Humza already said that. But the existing voter base simply isn't enough either to deliver a majority government or to deliver independence.
Any new leader needed to have that as a priority. But the remaining members chose not to vote for it - which is Tory levels of supreme arrogance.
Sturgeon wins again - drove out juuuust enough Members so that in a Members vote enough loyalists remain to defeat Ash 'Loony Tunes' Regan and Kate 'Thou shalt burn in the fires of hell' Forbes.
Moral: If you insist on shooting at the Queen, not only must you make sure that you don't miss, you also need to have a convincing Pretender lined up. Kate Forbes wasn't that Pretender. Maybe they don't exist.
If Yousaf really is that Useless, how long before la Sturge doesn't deny that she would be happy to serve again if asked nicely enough...
The non candidacy of Angus Robertson is the oddest thing. He would have walked it, surely
He could have steadied the post-Sturgeon ship, and prepared the ground for Forbes in five years or so
Why didn't he stand? Perhaps @malcolmg is right and there are too many scandals lurking
The FM plans to go to court over the GRR Bill. This is a use of political time/energy with very limited support for a project which has failed to obtain popular backing. The man who here wants the FM to "put the people’s priorities first" will encourage that.
Humza Yousaf seems to want to start his first ministership with a silly, wasteful legal battle that he likely to lose. He's on notice - the women's groups that have opposed this stripping of our rights all the way will keep going. What a catastrophic unforced error from him
That is the worst possible result for the Nats. A deeply uncharismatic new leader with an off putting demeanour, winning by a disputable and controversially narrow margin over a lovely young Christian lady, in an election envenomed with accusations of fixing, and fraud
SUPERB
I think a 52-48 win by Forbes on second preferences, where she was behind on first preferences, would have been worse for the SNP.
A lot of the younger SNP members and supporters would have found it very hard to rally behind Forbes, and she didn't have strong support amongst MSPs either.
Yousaf is definitely the, "don't rock the boat," candidate, so a dramatic Truss-style implosion is least likely.
Agree. The two front runners are flawed in their different ways. The one they chose is less divisive and therefore less of a direct threat to the party, which presumably the members care about.
But the party is all about indy. You got the sense Forbes was clever enough to steer a new direction to indy, given the chance. Yousaf is dim and he will not be able to reverse out of the Sturgeon cul de sac
So that will sow divisions by itself
You can forget independence other than some hotair and tales of how impossible it is. The gravy trainers have survived.
Is this where people make good use of distance and perspective to think deeply about her impact on Scotland, on Scottish politics, on the prospects for Independence, and come to a fair and balanced assessment thereof?
Or is it more where people who always hated her guts continue to slag her off now she's gone?
This would be an interesting and valid point, if it was just evil clever English intelligentsia Spectator types slagging her off, but it ain't. Lots of Scots, indeed lots of ardent Scot Nats, are looking at her with more skeptical eyes
She resigned at a really weird moment, and she left behind a mess. And that's without actually examining her record as FM - as in: the person governing Scotland - which is seriously "imperfect"
Also, in her own terms - where only one thing actually matters - she clearly failed. That thing is no closer today than at the start of her term in office, and is probably further away.
Is this where people make good use of distance and perspective to think deeply about her impact on Scotland, on Scottish politics, on the prospects for Independence, and come to a fair and balanced assessment thereof?
Or is it more where people who always hated her guts continue to slag her off now she's gone?
This would be an interesting and valid point, if it was just evil clever English intelligentsia Spectator types slagging her off, but it ain't. Lots of Scots, indeed lots of ardent Scot Nats, are looking at her with more skeptical eyes
She resigned at a really weird moment, and she left behind a mess. And that's without actually examining her record as FM - as in: the person governing Scotland - which is seriously "imperfect"
We will see when the fraud cases etc come to trial
The FM plans to go to court over the GRR Bill. This is a use of political time/energy with very limited support for a project which has failed to obtain popular backing. The man who here wants the FM to "put the people’s priorities first" will encourage that.
Humza Yousaf seems to want to start his first ministership with a silly, wasteful legal battle that he likely to lose. He's on notice - the women's groups that have opposed this stripping of our rights all the way will keep going. What a catastrophic unforced error from him
The FM plans to go to court over the GRR Bill. This is a use of political time/energy with very limited support for a project which has failed to obtain popular backing. The man who here wants the FM to "put the people’s priorities first" will encourage that.
Humza Yousaf seems to want to start his first ministership with a silly, wasteful legal battle that he likely to lose. He's on notice - the women's groups that have opposed this stripping of our rights all the way will keep going. What a catastrophic unforced error from him
Is this where people make good use of distance and perspective to think deeply about her impact on Scotland, on Scottish politics, on the prospects for Independence, and come to a fair and balanced assessment thereof?
Or is it more where people who always hated her guts continue to slag her off now she's gone?
This would be an interesting and valid point, if it was just evil clever English intelligentsia Spectator types slagging her off, but it ain't. Lots of Scots, indeed lots of ardent Scot Nats, are looking at her with more skeptical eyes
She resigned at a really weird moment, and she left behind a mess. And that's without actually examining her record as FM - as in: the person governing Scotland - which is seriously "imperfect"
We will see when the fraud cases etc come to trial
You've been quite prescient on all this, @malcolmg
Why do you think Sturgeon resigned when she did? Was it simply because she was exhausted and bored, as she suggested? Or do you think there were darker reasons - the threat of police action, the questions about her husband etc?
SCons to gain seats against a Yousef led SNP? Now a possibility surely?
Yeah, right.
Take your most recent preferred poll and remind me where SCon sit?
Its absurd. The criticism of the SNP government is that they aren't competent. They care, but they're poor at execution. So why would an SNP last time voter swing over to vote for a party that doesn't care and is even worse at execution?
SCons to gain seats against a Yousef led SNP? Now a possibility surely?
In a hypothetical situation where the SNP lost vote share equally to the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour, Labour would pick up at least 3 Scottish Westminster seats from the SNP for every 1 that the Conservatives gained.
So assuming that Yousless damages the SNP's prospects, what that would inevitably do is make significantly more likely the prospect of Starmer being the next PM, because it is more likely that Labour would have sufficient seats for a majority or at least enough to form some sort of stable coalition or working arrangement with the LDs.
SCons to gain seats against a Yousef led SNP? Now a possibility surely?
Yeah, right.
Take your most recent preferred poll and remind me where SCon sit?
Yousaf has just a 22% favourable rating with Scots as mentioned earlier, if that translates to a collapse in SNP voteshare, the SCons will gain SNP rural seats just as SLab gain SNP urban and central belt seats
Sturgeon wins again - drove out juuuust enough Members so that in a Members vote enough loyalists remain to defeat Ash 'Loony Tunes' Regan and Kate 'Thou shalt burn in the fires of hell' Forbes.
Moral: If you insist on shooting at the Queen, not only must you make sure that you don't miss, you also need to have a convincing Pretender lined up. Kate Forbes wasn't that Pretender. Maybe they don't exist.
If Yousaf really is that Useless, how long before la Sturge doesn't deny that she would be happy to serve again if asked nicely enough...
The non candidacy of Angus Robertson is the oddest thing. He would have walked it, surely
He could have steadied the post-Sturgeon ship, and prepared the ground for Forbes in five years or so
Why didn't he stand? Perhaps @malcolmg is right and there are too many scandals lurking
SCons to gain seats against a Yousef led SNP? Now a possibility surely?
In a hypothetical situation where the SNP lost vote share equally to the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour, Labour would pick up at least 3 Scottish Westminster seats from the SNP for every 1 that the Conservatives gained.
So assuming that Yousless damages the SNP's prospects, what that would inevitably do is make significantly more likely the prospect of Starmer being the next PM, because it is more likely that Labour would have sufficient seats for a majority or at least enough to form some sort of stable coalition or working arrangement with the LDs.
You know how midterm governments often lose a load of councillors as people protest against them? I can see the Westminster election playing out like that, especially if Yousless (love that BTW) does go ahead with a court challenge over GRR.
So yes, Labour to take seats in the central belt, why not.
Extraordinary. How can she stay in a party which overtly despises her and her beliefs?
Salmond's analysis of the SNP's self-destruction looks more accurate by the day
She got a pretty good vote from that very party. Excellent position for a future leadership attempt.
The members maybe, but not the MPs and MSPs and all the Sturgeonites. They hate her. And Yousaf will keep the party on the Wokey end of things, and drive away people more likely to vote for Forbes
So it will be equally difficult for her to win next time, if not MORE difficult
Can you let me know in a couple of sentences what this result means pls.
TIA
Smart arse response: Humza is now leader of the SNP. He's also very strong odds on to be next FM.
Less smartarse, he will really have to grow on the job (which unlike that weirdo Truss I think he may be capable of doing) or there'll be another leadership election after a bad result, eg the next UK GE.
Thanks but what does it mean for the independence aspirations of the SNP and the balance of Scottish politics?
What about a header, while we're at it?!
They have not being trying for 8 years , with a useless Sturgeon sockpuppet now installed, why would chances improve. I can forecast now we will not see it for a long time.
But what's the route to Indy apart from -
(i) Win a Holyrood election on a SindyRef2 ticket. (ii) Pressurize SW1 to honour the mandate and grant the vote. (iii) Win the vote.
Am I missing something else that could do the trick?
SCons to gain seats against a Yousef led SNP? Now a possibility surely?
Yeah, right.
Take your most recent preferred poll and remind me where SCon sit?
Yousaf has just a 22% favourable rating with Scots as mentioned earlier, if that translates to a collapse in SNP voteshare, the SCons will gain SNP rural seats just as SLab gain SNP urban and central belt seats
Off topic and fwiw, a friend of mine who is in the process of rowing the Atlantic (3,000 miles), is nearing the end of his journey, and is now 10 miles away from Falmouth Harbour, Antigua expected to hit shore in around five hours time.
At times the nearest human being to him was on the International Space Station.
I love facts like that. The famous Apollo 11 photo that Michael Collins took from the Columbia where he is the only creature, living, dead or long extinct not in the photo really makes you realise just how brave/vulnerable/lonely being a true explorer can be.
SCons to gain seats against a Yousef led SNP? Now a possibility surely?
Yeah, right.
Take your most recent preferred poll and remind me where SCon sit?
Yousaf has just a 22% favourable rating with Scots as mentioned earlier, if that translates to a collapse in SNP voteshare, the SCons will gain SNP rural seats just as SLab gain SNP urban and central belt seats
Good luck with that.
Sturgeon has a 46% favourable rating with Scots to just 22% for Yousaf.
Extraordinary. How can she stay in a party which overtly despises her and her beliefs?
Salmond's analysis of the SNP's self-destruction looks more accurate by the day
She got a pretty good vote from that very party. Excellent position for a future leadership attempt.
With the possible court cases and scandals ahead I wonder if this was perhaps a pretty good result for Forbes. This way she doesn't get tarred with the Sturgeon family scandal brush. Maybe another SNP election in a year or so?
Edit - also the SNP are bound to lose votes in the post Sturgeon era and now that will all be blamed on Yousaf
With the SNP bound to support Lab at Westminster, seats switching from SNP to Lab makes no difference to the chances of Starmer becoming PM - though it does of course improve the chances of an actual Lab majority.
Any seats switching from SNP to Con improves chances of Con clinging to power - even if more seats switch from SNP to Lab.
Extraordinary. How can she stay in a party which overtly despises her and her beliefs?
Salmond's analysis of the SNP's self-destruction looks more accurate by the day
She got a pretty good vote from that very party. Excellent position for a future leadership attempt.
The members maybe, but not the MPs and MSPs and all the Sturgeonites. They hate her. And Yousaf will keep the party on the Wokey end of things,
I'm sure it was only ever a matter of time before people started defending anti-gay prejudice as a brave stand against "Wokeyness".
Anti-gay prejudice? Do you have a source for that? I think this might be one of these J.K.Rowling-type 'facts' which is similarly difficult to substantiate but nevertheless acquires momentum
Is this where people make good use of distance and perspective to think deeply about her impact on Scotland, on Scottish politics, on the prospects for Independence, and come to a fair and balanced assessment thereof?
Or is it more where people who always hated her guts continue to slag her off now she's gone?
This would be an interesting and valid point, if it was just evil clever English intelligentsia Spectator types slagging her off, but it ain't. Lots of Scots, indeed lots of ardent Scot Nats, are looking at her with more skeptical eyes
She resigned at a really weird moment, and she left behind a mess. And that's without actually examining her record as FM - as in: the person governing Scotland - which is seriously "imperfect"
Ok maybe. But something I've noticed on here - eg with Mrs Merkel - is that whenever a poster talks about her legacy 'unravelling' I look at who's speaking and - lo - it's somebody with a track record of disliking Mrs Merkel. So it's as though 'legacy' analysis just means not liking now what you never did like.
Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:
Yousaf 1.34 Forbes 3.45
An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is
I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!
Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour? I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
Speaking for Labour, and setting aside the independence question (on which I'm neutral), I don't think we care who wins. The key thing is that Sturgeon has gone. She was a formidable opponent, and her departure improves Labour's chances of making progress in Scotland, I think.
Although according to Hyufd Kate Forbes is a Scottish Ann Widdecombe in which case that has to help Labour.
Extraordinary. How can she stay in a party which overtly despises her and her beliefs?
Salmond's analysis of the SNP's self-destruction looks more accurate by the day
She got a pretty good vote from that very party. Excellent position for a future leadership attempt.
The members maybe, but not the MPs and MSPs and all the Sturgeonites. They hate her. And Yousaf will keep the party on the Wokey end of things,
I'm sure it was only ever a matter of time before people started defending anti-gay prejudice as a brave stand against "Wokeyness".
Anti-gay prejudice? Do you have a source for that? I think this might be one of these J.K.Rowling-type 'facts' which is similarly difficult to substantiate but nevertheless acquires momentum
To many gay people, being anti-gay marriage is anti-gay.
Saying “I personally oppose it, but wouldn’t do anything to change the status quo” doesn’t modify them.
Can you let me know in a couple of sentences what this result means pls.
TIA
Smart arse response: Humza is now leader of the SNP. He's also very strong odds on to be next FM.
Less smartarse, he will really have to grow on the job (which unlike that weirdo Truss I think he may be capable of doing) or there'll be another leadership election after a bad result, eg the next UK GE.
Thanks but what does it mean for the independence aspirations of the SNP and the balance of Scottish politics?
What about a header, while we're at it?!
They have not being trying for 8 years , with a useless Sturgeon sockpuppet now installed, why would chances improve. I can forecast now we will not see it for a long time.
But what's the route to Indy apart from -
(i) Win a Holyrood election on a SindyRef2 ticket. (ii) Pressurize SW1 to honour the mandate and grant the vote. (iii) Win the vote.
Am I missing something else that could do the trick?
There are two other routes
One is the de facto referendum. Call a Holyrood election on an explicit indy mandate. Extremely risky, but with a charismatic and powerful leader it might just have worked. If the Nats had got an outright majority of all votes, in that election, that WOULD have put quite intense pressure on Westminster
However winning that majority would have been very hard for anyone, and the backfiring potential would be enormous. A defeat would have been the end of indy for decades, and the election might have been boycotted by unionists, leading to a total mess. But it WAS an option.
Not now. Not with Yousless
The second route is what Forbes might have provided. Simply govern Scotland well. Make Scotland prosperous. Sort out the health service, increase investment, make Scotland richer than England (without any need for subsidy). Five years or more of that might have taken the YES polling consistently to 60% and at that point London would probably have had to yield
That too will not happen under Yousless. He's proved to be an inept minister, there is no reason to believe he can transform the economy. He wants to fight Trans-TERF wars FFS
Is this where people make good use of distance and perspective to think deeply about her impact on Scotland, on Scottish politics, on the prospects for Independence, and come to a fair and balanced assessment thereof?
Or is it more where people who always hated her guts continue to slag her off now she's gone?
This would be an interesting and valid point, if it was just evil clever English intelligentsia Spectator types slagging her off, but it ain't. Lots of Scots, indeed lots of ardent Scot Nats, are looking at her with more skeptical eyes
She resigned at a really weird moment, and she left behind a mess. And that's without actually examining her record as FM - as in: the person governing Scotland - which is seriously "imperfect"
Ok maybe. But something I've noticed on here - eg with Mrs Merkel - is that whenever a poster talks about her legacy 'unravelling' I look at who's speaking and - lo - it's somebody with a track record of disliking Mrs Merkel. So it's as though 'legacy' analysis just means not liking now what you never did like.
Indeed. In fact, sometimes it's even quicker. I've noticed that some posters are already pointing out how much of a failure Starmer was as PM, as immigration soared, unions struck, wokeness prevailed, and the economy went to hell in a handcart.
Is this where people make good use of distance and perspective to think deeply about her impact on Scotland, on Scottish politics, on the prospects for Independence, and come to a fair and balanced assessment thereof?
Or is it more where people who always hated her guts continue to slag her off now she's gone?
This would be an interesting and valid point, if it was just evil clever English intelligentsia Spectator types slagging her off, but it ain't. Lots of Scots, indeed lots of ardent Scot Nats, are looking at her with more skeptical eyes
She resigned at a really weird moment, and she left behind a mess. And that's without actually examining her record as FM - as in: the person governing Scotland - which is seriously "imperfect"
Ok maybe. But something I've noticed on here - eg with Mrs Merkel - is that whenever a poster talks about her legacy 'unravelling' I look at who's speaking and - lo - it's somebody with a track record of disliking Mrs Merkel. So it's as though 'legacy' analysis just means not liking now what you never did like.
Does any politician ever really retire leaving a legacy that stands up? I can't think of any modern leader that you can really say has left anything stellar. Things always tend to unravel overtime. Maybe that's just the nature of the beast?
Is this where people make good use of distance and perspective to think deeply about her impact on Scotland, on Scottish politics, on the prospects for Independence, and come to a fair and balanced assessment thereof?
Or is it more where people who always hated her guts continue to slag her off now she's gone?
This would be an interesting and valid point, if it was just evil clever English intelligentsia Spectator types slagging her off, but it ain't. Lots of Scots, indeed lots of ardent Scot Nats, are looking at her with more skeptical eyes
She resigned at a really weird moment, and she left behind a mess. And that's without actually examining her record as FM - as in: the person governing Scotland - which is seriously "imperfect"
We will see when the fraud cases etc come to trial
You've been quite prescient on all this, @malcolmg
Why do you think Sturgeon resigned when she did? Was it simply because she was exhausted and bored, as she suggested? Or do you think there were darker reasons - the threat of police action, the questions about her husband etc?
Is this where people make good use of distance and perspective to think deeply about her impact on Scotland, on Scottish politics, on the prospects for Independence, and come to a fair and balanced assessment thereof?
Or is it more where people who always hated her guts continue to slag her off now she's gone?
This would be an interesting and valid point, if it was just evil clever English intelligentsia Spectator types slagging her off, but it ain't. Lots of Scots, indeed lots of ardent Scot Nats, are looking at her with more skeptical eyes
She resigned at a really weird moment, and she left behind a mess. And that's without actually examining her record as FM - as in: the person governing Scotland - which is seriously "imperfect"
Ok maybe. But something I've noticed on here - eg with Mrs Merkel - is that whenever a poster talks about her legacy 'unravelling' I look at who's speaking and - lo - it's somebody with a track record of disliking Mrs Merkel. So it's as though 'legacy' analysis just means not liking now what you never did like.
Does any politician ever really retire leaving a legacy that stands up? I can't think of any modern leader that you can really say has left anything stellar. Things always tend to unravel overtime. Maybe that's just the nature of the beast?
All political careers end in failure as I believe the saying goes. Certainly few exceptions to that rule.
Comments
US life expectancy is now lower than life expectancy in Cuba, Panama and Thailand. It will soon be overtaken by Vietnam
Drugs and guns, drugs and guns. And obesity
@malcolmg how does your party try and gain from this? Sturgeon looked and sounded like a leader even if in practice that wasn't the case. Alba doesn't seem to be big enough to even stand candidates everywhere never mind win votes - will there now be a broad offer made to the many SNP members walking to come and join? I thought Forbes had a similar perspective to Salmond in terms of how she saw Scotland.
Sturgeon made most of them look worse (even if her legacy is proving to be a crock of crap)
At times the nearest human being to him was on the International Space Station.
So that will sow divisions by itself
I'd expect the scenario to be more like someone realising their time was up through self knowledge or 'persuasion', and then the whole process starting again.
Drakeford has been awful for years without seeming to endanger the position of Welsh Labour.
I doubt that a similar poster would work with Humza and Keir.
Not an instant transfer situation, but David Perdue lost in a Senate runoff election after getting 49.7% in the first round.
Similarly, in a Maldivan Presidential election the leader in the first round got 46.9% in round 1, then 48.6% in round 2 (his opponent had 29.7% in the first round).
A lot of the flak that Green ministers have had to endure will now be directed at Yousaf - he doesn't (yet?) have that Sturgeon/Salmond invincibility.
That Forbes got 48% suggests that the big drop in membership wasn't GRR protest, but younger people who got involved with the SNP around 2014. These are natural Green voters/activists.
They are the biggest party in Scotland with dominance in so many areas. But their absolute hegemony is, I suspect, coming to an end, for now
A Holyrood majority looks extremely tough, for instance, next time around. Bye bye "de facto referendum" (not that it was ever a real proposal)
No doubt in China they take comfort that they are at least not North Korea.
Not a great choice for the SNP membership, but I suspect they went for the less bad option from their point of view. They might even get the chance of replacing him before it all collapses.
I'll give Regan a couple of crumbs of credit for actually coming out with a plan for independence; unfortunately it was gibberish.
But by the same token it means that Mr Yousaf has to take the centrist element in the party much more seriously now. Will be interesting to see what happens.
If Yousaf really is that Useless, how long before la Sturge doesn't deny that she would be happy to serve again if asked nicely enough...
Yousless really does have his work cut out.
https://spice-spotlight.scot/2023/03/23/explainer-timings-for-selection-and-appointment-of-a-new-first-minister/
Is this where people make good use of distance and perspective to think deeply about her impact on Scotland, on Scottish politics, on the prospects for Independence, and come to a fair and balanced assessment thereof?
Or is it more where people who always hated her guts continue to slag her off now she's gone?
So he is NOT the broad church candidate, and he means indy goes in the freezer for many years. He is not going to inspire anyone to switch sides, unless he can surprise on the upside, like Liz Truss
He is also the continuity candidate of a cabal that is crumbling under allegations of corruption, which edge ever nearer to police action. Forbes, by contrast, would have been the clean slate candidate, able to say a plausible goodbye to all that shite. She is also, obviously, smarter - and surely more honest
Oh dear. Oh dear. Och
But remember that the Scottish Greens are also at the - shall we be generous - progressive end of the culture war.
Who do non Progressive Scots Nats vote for? How does the SNP keep the tent big enough?
ALBA can only keep trying to persuade real supporters that they are going nowhere with SNP and given 50K have left you wonder where they have gone to, likely given up mostly or to ALBA.
Be a long hard slog I think.
https://twitter.com/kevinaschofield/status/1640355531121389573
She resigned at a really weird moment, and she left behind a mess. And that's without actually examining her record as FM - as in: the person governing Scotland - which is seriously "imperfect"
New Hampshire DeSantis 39% Trump 39% I assume you mean?
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/iowa-poll-desantis-45-percent-trump-37-percent/
Any new leader needed to have that as a priority. But the remaining members chose not to vote for it - which is Tory levels of supreme arrogance.
He could have steadied the post-Sturgeon ship, and prepared the ground for Forbes in five years or so
Why didn't he stand? Perhaps @malcolmg is right and there are too many scandals lurking
https://twitter.com/LucyHunterB/status/1640354868551450627?s=20
Humza Yousaf seems to want to start his first ministership with a silly, wasteful legal battle that he likely to lose. He's on notice - the women's groups that have opposed this stripping of our rights all the way will keep going. What a catastrophic unforced error from him
https://twitter.com/HJoyceGender/status/1640356074011209729?s=20
Take your most recent preferred poll and remind me where SCon sit?
Salmond's analysis of the SNP's self-destruction looks more accurate by the day
Why do you think Sturgeon resigned when she did? Was it simply because she was exhausted and bored, as she suggested? Or do you think there were darker reasons - the threat of police action, the questions about her husband etc?
So assuming that Yousless damages the SNP's prospects, what that would inevitably do is make significantly more likely the prospect of Starmer being the next PM, because it is more likely that Labour would have sufficient seats for a majority or at least enough to form some sort of stable coalition or working arrangement with the LDs.
So yes, Labour to take seats in the central belt, why not.
So it will be equally difficult for her to win next time, if not MORE difficult
(i) Win a Holyrood election on a SindyRef2 ticket.
(ii) Pressurize SW1 to honour the mandate and grant the vote.
(iii) Win the vote.
Am I missing something else that could do the trick?
The famous Apollo 11 photo that Michael Collins took from the Columbia where he is the only creature, living, dead or long extinct not in the photo really makes you realise just how brave/vulnerable/lonely being a true explorer can be.
SNP supporters should be panicking this afternoon
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/tight-race-between-yousaf-and-forbes-among-snp-voters-while-sturgeons-ratings-are-up
Edit - also the SNP are bound to lose votes in the post Sturgeon era and now that will all be blamed on Yousaf
Any seats switching from SNP to Con improves chances of Con clinging to power - even if more seats switch from SNP to Lab.
Saying “I personally oppose it, but wouldn’t do anything to change the status quo” doesn’t modify them.
One is the de facto referendum. Call a Holyrood election on an explicit indy mandate. Extremely risky, but with a charismatic and powerful leader it might just have worked. If the Nats had got an outright majority of all votes, in that election, that WOULD have put quite intense pressure on Westminster
However winning that majority would have been very hard for anyone, and the backfiring potential would be enormous. A defeat would have been the end of indy for decades, and the election might have been boycotted by unionists, leading to a total mess. But it WAS an option.
Not now. Not with Yousless
The second route is what Forbes might have provided. Simply govern Scotland well. Make Scotland prosperous. Sort out the health service, increase investment, make Scotland richer than England (without any need for subsidy). Five years or more of that might have taken the YES polling consistently to 60% and at that point London would probably have had to yield
That too will not happen under Yousless. He's proved to be an inept minister, there is no reason to believe he can transform the economy. He wants to fight Trans-TERF wars FFS
I've noticed that some posters are already pointing out how much of a failure Starmer was as PM, as immigration soared, unions struck, wokeness prevailed, and the economy went to hell in a handcart.
Things always tend to unravel overtime. Maybe that's just the nature of the beast?