Did Rishi Sunak just save the Union? – politicalbetting.com
Did Rishi Sunak just save the Union? – politicalbetting.com
I thought it would be interesting to see what the independence polling shows on the day before Nicola Sturgeon’s successor is announced.
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Sturgeon couldn't work out a convincing next step escalation/response to "now is not the time" on the S30 request and didn't really have the guts or sheer desire to do anything significantly dramatic, so basically every UK PM since just trots out the same line. Sunak is just the one who gets to see when the SNP finally crumbles as a long term result of that pissing off a section of its membership alongside other general internal party fuck-ups and long-term complacency setting in whilst the Scottish non-indy pop gets bored with them.
As recently as December, Yes was well in the lead. I doubt those potential voters are suddenly troubled by the currency question.
I think they have a robust filter which sees much lower DKs than others.
Ferries, GRR, the "missing" £600k, the lost 30k members, the lack of any clear options as to how to force another referendum (which may be something of a relief given the chances of winning it), bringing the muppets into government (a deep apology to Kermit and co for that one), an NHS really struggling to cope with the sequelae of Covid and a criminal justice system on its knees, it's one hell of a legacy for her successor. Scotland needs an Abraham Lincoln but we are going to get Useless instead. Not sure that Things can only get better is really the right tune for this.
As for Sindy and the SNP...
The polling never really broke decisively for "Yes". I don't know what decisive looks like (is it 3:2 or 2:1? I don't know, but as with reopening Brexit, I suspect we'll recognise it when it happens) but the pressure for Scottish Independence didn't seem to get to a point where another referendum would have been more than another spin on the wheel.
And without an imminent referendum, what exactly is the SNP for? Hence the arguments we're seeing now.
Or was this just yet another Remainer mistake/lie, along with the 5 million unemployed and international irrelevance that we're still waiting for?
But he's still defending 13 years of failure, in which people see their lives getting worse and not better and they see things like energy bills going up and everything getting more expensive. His wealth is an issue as people see him as out of touch.
As a man to steady the ship he's good - but I just cannot see why anyone would come out to vote for his party in big numbers at this stage.
Because if he surprises on the downside the only thing left will be to suspend Holyrood, which seems a tad unlikely.
It's tragic it really is.
TSE typo alert!
TSE typo alert!
Thinking heretically for a moment, I'm coming to the conclusion just as UK-EU relations will be hugely improved by us no longer being in the EU, the Anglo-Scottish relationship will in time be hugely improved by Scotland no longer being in the UK.
Labours next election campaign writes itself.
Fifteen years of failure.
On the conservatives favoured metric, it’s been a disaster.
I don’t see how Labour can lose this one.
I'm surprised Pbers haven't commented more on that, and the marked contrast with the percentage SKS pays on his income.
For the 32 out of the last 36 years the SNP had a leader with a fish punnable surname.
In fact, I think the GMT/BST dichotomy is a perfectly rational solution - and better than perma-BST or the weirdly unpopular perma-GMT.
But on senseless quirks, absolutely agree. The existence of a guide to escort people across Morecambe Bay at low tide. Ed Balls day. The Abbots Bromley horn dancers. The use of the phrase 'early doors' to mean 'early'. Morris Dancer's steadfast refusal to use the quote function. All makes life immeasurably richer.
Given even ideal circumstances, which no longer seems to be true when it comes to the SNP, how long can they keep doing that? "Just" winning now is no longer enough as it will essentially look like a backwards step. It's why the gradualist approach has always looked flawed to me.
Realistically they might win another couple of elections and be in government but unless they're whopping wins they are not really going to alter the balance on the constitutional question.
Maybe Forbes or Yousaf can somehow re-generate that momentum, though it seems unlikely at this point in time.
Ham's off, you fish?
Their reputation is baked in. Save for the delusional and the demented, nobody who votes Conservative thinks that they care about ordinary people. They get support from two largely overlapping groups: better off voters who think that they have more to lose than to gain by waving them goodbye, and voters who are allergic to the idea of Labour in power for social/cultural reasons.
There’s also a lack these days of the tall poppy syndrome where people didn’t like to see others wealthier than they are - all the kids see their football idols, reality tv “stars” etc driving the expensive cars, the really naff ones in black G-Wagons, and they want a bit of it too and preferably with as little effort as possible.
And maybe the evil cynical people like me think Starmer is a mug for not arranging his tax affairs more efficiently.
Forbes will leak left liberals to SLab and the Greens like a sieve, Yousaf is hapless and will equally leak to SLab and the SCons
"Neither Humza Yousaf, Kate Forbes or Ash Regan have a net positive rating among the Scottish public, researchers at Ipsos found in a snap poll held between March 17 and 21."
I mean, where do you start?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ahead-of-tomorrow-s-result-all-snp-leadership-hopefuls-have-net-negative-ratings/ar-AA195OY7?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1115e0035dc84441bb185761997b5a40&ei=20
I'm not sure even Cameron could have done this.
Public beginning to see a light at the end of the covid/economic tunnel?
Sunak may well have tipped the scales for Sturgeon but there has to be more which is yet to be told
I am just relieved that at last the conservative party has a leader and PM who is competent and his success with the WF is his legacy as he put the DUP and ERG to the sword for the greater good of Northern Ireland, the UK and EU and in doing so has created a warm relationship with the EU from the hostility of Johnson and Truss to the greater benefit of us all
I have no idea how GE24 will play out, but Sunak/ Hunt are capable of improving the economy and Starmer may be the benefactor but I do not see some of the wilder claims the conservatives will be wiped out
https://mobile.twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1639644436001968128
Idaho Republicans have blocked a bill to make tampons available for students, calling it “woke.” One Republican lawmaker said, “You don’t have to be a woman to understand the absurdity of this policy.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1639727653228781568
A problem on here with trying to discern the place Labour holds in Scottish heads & hearts is that there’s never been a SLab poster to talk us through it, let alone a ‘Labour left me not me them but I’m going to dump the SNP because of Sir Keir’s exciting progressive prospectus’ poster.
Not sure it means the next move will be to greater optimism though. Current levels factor in expectation of falling inflation, narrow avoidance of recession, a fairly gentle exit from energy price cap for households, and no worsening of the international outlook. Plenty of room there for negative surprises (as well as positive ones).
He and SLab are jumping for joy that Sturgeon has gone as she was on +8% with Scots
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/tight-race-between-yousaf-and-forbes-among-snp-voters-while-sturgeons-ratings-are-up
Both Oxford crews have lady cox
Edit: Beaten to it by Sunil.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/26/lebanon-split-into-two-time-zones-in-row-over-daylight-saving