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A reminder of the polling on today’s big political issue – politicalbetting.com

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  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited March 2023
    If residential REIT share prices are a decent forward indicator of house prices, then PRSR down ~30% since last summer indicates there may be more pain ahead for the housing market.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,802
    TOPPING said:

    Selebian said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT :

    Sunak is definitely upping his game. A more pragmatic and less ideologically Thatcherite approach to the strikes, improved Commons performances, and a general sense of him growing into the role.

    Some partial improvements in the polls as a result ; it won't be enough to win the Tories the next election, but he might be the only force that could save them from a terrible reduction in seats , and rescue them from irrelevance.

    Sunak growing into the role of PM is precisely what Boris failed to do. Great to see the difference between the two.
    Boris sank into the role of PM, going native and locking the country down unnecessarily and worse keeping us locked down even after the country had vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Had we not had a lockdown, then Boris would probably still be PM now.
    It's an interesting counterfactual. Could he really have ridden out the hysteria if we had followed the Swedish approach?
    Nevertheless in the round Sweden came out no better and no worse than us in terms of health outcomes and with a lot less economic and hidden social damage.
    Quite a bit worse than comparable neighbours on deaths, though. And with restrictions not really that much looser than the UK - more stringent than UK at some time points - despite the initial hype.

    ETA: embed didn't work, but see comparison here (using the Oxford index).

    E2TA pic:


    E3TA: Not to trivialise the differences, which were substantial, particularly in first lockdown periods
    As I posted, a good BBG article:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-opinion-lessons-learned-from-covid-pandemic-global-comparison/

    Sweden looks like it had 50% of the excess deaths per million vs UK. It did worse than its neighbours but better than most of Europe so make of that what you will.

    In particular it is worth quoting this bit in full:

    "On some of those measures, Sweden has objectively fared better than countries that prescribed lockdowns. Its young people are doing especially well compared to those of other nations.

    "According to an analysis of 15 countries, youngsters on average lost a third of a year’s worth of learning during the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, kids from poor households suffered most. By contrast, a different paper found that Swedish students showed no learning gaps in literacy at all (math skills weren’t part of the study). Nor did the pandemic exacerbate the deficits of less-well-off children.

    "The evidence on mental health tells a similar story. An analysis of 11 countries that had lockdowns and school closures shows that depression and anxiety increased dramatically among young people. By contrast, a study of Swedish university students found negligible effects on depression, and even small improvements in anxiety and stress."
    As I was saying.

    It is of course extremely difficult to weigh the slightly premature deaths of predominantly older people against the blighted lives of those very much younger. We could have a whole thread about that on PB and still not reach a conclusion.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,799
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Selebian said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT :

    Sunak is definitely upping his game. A more pragmatic and less ideologically Thatcherite approach to the strikes, improved Commons performances, and a general sense of him growing into the role.

    Some partial improvements in the polls as a result ; it won't be enough to win the Tories the next election, but he might be the only force that could save them from a terrible reduction in seats , and rescue them from irrelevance.

    Sunak growing into the role of PM is precisely what Boris failed to do. Great to see the difference between the two.
    Boris sank into the role of PM, going native and locking the country down unnecessarily and worse keeping us locked down even after the country had vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Had we not had a lockdown, then Boris would probably still be PM now.
    It's an interesting counterfactual. Could he really have ridden out the hysteria if we had followed the Swedish approach?
    Nevertheless in the round Sweden came out no better and no worse than us in terms of health outcomes and with a lot less economic and hidden social damage.
    Quite a bit worse than comparable neighbours on deaths, though. And with restrictions not really that much looser than the UK - more stringent than UK at some time points - despite the initial hype.

    ETA: embed didn't work, but see comparison here (using the Oxford index).

    E2TA pic:


    E3TA: Not to trivialise the differences, which were substantial, particularly in first lockdown periods
    As I posted, a good BBG article:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-opinion-lessons-learned-from-covid-pandemic-global-comparison/

    Sweden looks like it had 50% of the excess deaths per million vs UK. It did worse than its neighbours but better than most of Europe so make of that what you will.

    In particular it is worth quoting this bit in full:

    "On some of those measures, Sweden has objectively fared better than countries that prescribed lockdowns. Its young people are doing especially well compared to those of other nations.

    "According to an analysis of 15 countries, youngsters on average lost a third of a year’s worth of learning during the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, kids from poor households suffered most. By contrast, a different paper found that Swedish students showed no learning gaps in literacy at all (math skills weren’t part of the study). Nor did the pandemic exacerbate the deficits of less-well-off children.

    "The evidence on mental health tells a similar story. An analysis of 11 countries that had lockdowns and school closures shows that depression and anxiety increased dramatically among young people. By contrast, a study of Swedish university students found negligible effects on depression, and even small improvements in anxiety and stress."
    As I was saying.

    It is of course extremely difficult to weigh the slightly premature deaths of predominantly older people against the blighted lives of those very much younger. We could have a whole thread about that on PB and still not reach a conclusion.
    Absolutely and even respected and wise PB posters blathering on about the "150,000 excess deaths" as though that, although an undoubted tragedy, is the only factor.
  • 23 Tories voting no apparently. Disaster for the ERG.

    Who was the poster who predicted 100-150 Tory rebels?
    HYUFD said it will reflect the support Johnson has in parliament. lol.
    Indeed it has
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    How's he doing? I see Cummings has motive to lie but Boris doesn't?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,288

    I am just hearing "blah, blah, blah", if you can't blind with science, baffle with bullsh*t.

    It's not about Partygate, it is about LYING to Parliament.

    The expression 'he protests too much' comes to mind and my good lady has just said this is painful to listen to
    I switched it off in the end. It still pains me to think that this idiot was once PM of our great country, and the choice was between him and Corbyn. Our two party system needs radical reform.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,879
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Selebian said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT :

    Sunak is definitely upping his game. A more pragmatic and less ideologically Thatcherite approach to the strikes, improved Commons performances, and a general sense of him growing into the role.

    Some partial improvements in the polls as a result ; it won't be enough to win the Tories the next election, but he might be the only force that could save them from a terrible reduction in seats , and rescue them from irrelevance.

    Sunak growing into the role of PM is precisely what Boris failed to do. Great to see the difference between the two.
    Boris sank into the role of PM, going native and locking the country down unnecessarily and worse keeping us locked down even after the country had vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Had we not had a lockdown, then Boris would probably still be PM now.
    It's an interesting counterfactual. Could he really have ridden out the hysteria if we had followed the Swedish approach?
    Nevertheless in the round Sweden came out no better and no worse than us in terms of health outcomes and with a lot less economic and hidden social damage.
    Quite a bit worse than comparable neighbours on deaths, though. And with restrictions not really that much looser than the UK - more stringent than UK at some time points - despite the initial hype.

    ETA: embed didn't work, but see comparison here (using the Oxford index).

    E2TA pic:


    E3TA: Not to trivialise the differences, which were substantial, particularly in first lockdown periods
    As I posted, a good BBG article:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-opinion-lessons-learned-from-covid-pandemic-global-comparison/

    Sweden looks like it had 50% of the excess deaths per million vs UK. It did worse than its neighbours but better than most of Europe so make of that what you will.

    In particular it is worth quoting this bit in full:

    "On some of those measures, Sweden has objectively fared better than countries that prescribed lockdowns. Its young people are doing especially well compared to those of other nations.

    "According to an analysis of 15 countries, youngsters on average lost a third of a year’s worth of learning during the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, kids from poor households suffered most. By contrast, a different paper found that Swedish students showed no learning gaps in literacy at all (math skills weren’t part of the study). Nor did the pandemic exacerbate the deficits of less-well-off children.

    "The evidence on mental health tells a similar story. An analysis of 11 countries that had lockdowns and school closures shows that depression and anxiety increased dramatically among young people. By contrast, a study of Swedish university students found negligible effects on depression, and even small improvements in anxiety and stress."
    As I was saying.

    It is of course extremely difficult to weigh the slightly premature deaths of predominantly older people against the blighted lives of those very much younger. We could have a whole thread about that on PB and still not reach a conclusion.
    The government, the experts and the media didn't find it difficult at all: the correct ratio was quickly agreed on as 1:0.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,396

    23 Tories voting no apparently. Disaster for the ERG.

    Who was the poster who predicted 100-150 Tory rebels?
    HYUFD said it will reflect the support Johnson has in parliament. lol.
    I didn't make any prediction on figures however.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    A pathetic rebellion.
  • HYUFD said:

    23 Tories voting no apparently. Disaster for the ERG.

    Who was the poster who predicted 100-150 Tory rebels?
    HYUFD said it will reflect the support Johnson has in parliament. lol.
    I didn't make any prediction on figures however.
    You must be in despair

    As I predicted the ERG are irrelevant now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,396

    I am just hearing "blah, blah, blah", if you can't blind with science, baffle with bullsh*t.

    It's not about Partygate, it is about LYING to Parliament.

    The expression 'he protests too much' comes to mind and my good lady has just said this is painful to listen to
    I switched it off in the end. It still pains me to think that this idiot was once PM of our great country, and the choice was between him and Corbyn. Our two party system needs radical reform.
    In a multi party system under PR Johnson could lead RefUK, Corbyn the TUSC, while Starmer still led Labour and Sunak still led the Tories
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,728
    MikeL said:

    Time to tell the DUP that if they don't grow up then the rules will be changed to stop them blocking Stormont?

    If they want to be part of the UK, how about they follow what the UK Parliament wants.

    And wants by 515 to 29. It could not be more clear cut.

    How many Tories? Presumably DUP voted against?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,396

    HYUFD said:

    23 Tories voting no apparently. Disaster for the ERG.

    Who was the poster who predicted 100-150 Tory rebels?
    HYUFD said it will reflect the support Johnson has in parliament. lol.
    I didn't make any prediction on figures however.
    You must be in despair

    As I predicted the ERG are irrelevant now
    I voted for Sunak in the leadership election not Truss if you recall, so I am actually more pro Sunak than most Conservative members
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,879

    I am just hearing "blah, blah, blah", if you can't blind with science, baffle with bullsh*t.

    It's not about Partygate, it is about LYING to Parliament.

    The expression 'he protests too much' comes to mind and my good lady has just said this is painful to listen to
    I switched it off in the end. It still pains me to think that this idiot was once PM of our great country, and the choice was between him and Corbyn. Our two party system needs radical reform.
    It does. But how do you do that without it quickly settling into a left block and a right block, the leaders of which are effectively the only candidates for PM?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,942
    TOPPING said:

    Selebian said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT :

    Sunak is definitely upping his game. A more pragmatic and less ideologically Thatcherite approach to the strikes, improved Commons performances, and a general sense of him growing into the role.

    Some partial improvements in the polls as a result ; it won't be enough to win the Tories the next election, but he might be the only force that could save them from a terrible reduction in seats , and rescue them from irrelevance.

    Sunak growing into the role of PM is precisely what Boris failed to do. Great to see the difference between the two.
    Boris sank into the role of PM, going native and locking the country down unnecessarily and worse keeping us locked down even after the country had vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Had we not had a lockdown, then Boris would probably still be PM now.
    It's an interesting counterfactual. Could he really have ridden out the hysteria if we had followed the Swedish approach?
    Nevertheless in the round Sweden came out no better and no worse than us in terms of health outcomes and with a lot less economic and hidden social damage.
    Quite a bit worse than comparable neighbours on deaths, though. And with restrictions not really that much looser than the UK - more stringent than UK at some time points - despite the initial hype.

    ETA: embed didn't work, but see comparison here (using the Oxford index).

    E2TA pic:


    E3TA: Not to trivialise the differences, which were substantial, particularly in first lockdown periods
    As I posted, a good BBG article:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-opinion-lessons-learned-from-covid-pandemic-global-comparison/

    Sweden looks like it had 50% of the excess deaths per million vs UK. It did worse than its neighbours but better than most of Europe so make of that what you will.

    In particular it is worth quoting this bit in full:

    "On some of those measures, Sweden has objectively fared better than countries that prescribed lockdowns. Its young people are doing especially well compared to those of other nations.

    "According to an analysis of 15 countries, youngsters on average lost a third of a year’s worth of learning during the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, kids from poor households suffered most. By contrast, a different paper found that Swedish students showed no learning gaps in literacy at all (math skills weren’t part of the study). Nor did the pandemic exacerbate the deficits of less-well-off children.

    "The evidence on mental health tells a similar story. An analysis of 11 countries that had lockdowns and school closures shows that depression and anxiety increased dramatically among young people. By contrast, a study of Swedish university students found negligible effects on depression, and even small improvements in anxiety and stress."
    One of the problems, as @Selebian notes, is that comparisons between countries are notoriously tough when countries themselves have varying degrees of restrictions by locality.

    This is obvious in the US (New York vs Florida), but is tough even inside States. DeSantis was - to my mind - absolutely right have only minimal restrictions at the State level, but to allow Cities and Counties extensive freedom to set restrictions.

    And the same is true of Sweden, where Stockholm had significantly more restrictions than rural counties.

    With that said, I think the UK's lockdown was both too long, and absurdly strict. One could have achieved 90+% of the reduction in R, with many fewer restrictions.
  • IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Selebian said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT :

    Sunak is definitely upping his game. A more pragmatic and less ideologically Thatcherite approach to the strikes, improved Commons performances, and a general sense of him growing into the role.

    Some partial improvements in the polls as a result ; it won't be enough to win the Tories the next election, but he might be the only force that could save them from a terrible reduction in seats , and rescue them from irrelevance.

    Sunak growing into the role of PM is precisely what Boris failed to do. Great to see the difference between the two.
    Boris sank into the role of PM, going native and locking the country down unnecessarily and worse keeping us locked down even after the country had vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Had we not had a lockdown, then Boris would probably still be PM now.
    It's an interesting counterfactual. Could he really have ridden out the hysteria if we had followed the Swedish approach?
    Nevertheless in the round Sweden came out no better and no worse than us in terms of health outcomes and with a lot less economic and hidden social damage.
    Quite a bit worse than comparable neighbours on deaths, though. And with restrictions not really that much looser than the UK - more stringent than UK at some time points - despite the initial hype.

    ETA: embed didn't work, but see comparison here (using the Oxford index).

    E2TA pic:


    E3TA: Not to trivialise the differences, which were substantial, particularly in first lockdown periods
    As I posted, a good BBG article:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-opinion-lessons-learned-from-covid-pandemic-global-comparison/

    Sweden looks like it had 50% of the excess deaths per million vs UK. It did worse than its neighbours but better than most of Europe so make of that what you will.

    In particular it is worth quoting this bit in full:

    "On some of those measures, Sweden has objectively fared better than countries that prescribed lockdowns. Its young people are doing especially well compared to those of other nations.

    "According to an analysis of 15 countries, youngsters on average lost a third of a year’s worth of learning during the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, kids from poor households suffered most. By contrast, a different paper found that Swedish students showed no learning gaps in literacy at all (math skills weren’t part of the study). Nor did the pandemic exacerbate the deficits of less-well-off children.

    "The evidence on mental health tells a similar story. An analysis of 11 countries that had lockdowns and school closures shows that depression and anxiety increased dramatically among young people. By contrast, a study of Swedish university students found negligible effects on depression, and even small improvements in anxiety and stress."
    As I was saying.

    It is of course extremely difficult to weigh the slightly premature deaths of predominantly older people against the blighted lives of those very much younger. We could have a whole thread about that on PB and still not reach a conclusion.
    Pretty easy from a financial perspective.

    Older people (generally) will have a negative Free Cash Flow profile given they will be disproportionate consumers of health services, their pensions, that they (generally) tend not to be as big consumer spenders as younger people and, not least, do not pay tax.

    Younger people (again generally) will have a positive Free Cash Flow profile given they will work, contribute, use fewer services etc.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    23 Tories voting no apparently. Disaster for the ERG.

    Who was the poster who predicted 100-150 Tory rebels?
    HYUFD said it will reflect the support Johnson has in parliament. lol.
    I didn't make any prediction on figures however.
    You must be in despair

    As I predicted the ERG are irrelevant now
    I voted for Sunak in the leadership election not Truss if you recall, so I am actually more pro Sunak than most Conservative members
    I have just collapsed laughing
  • MikeL said:

    Time to tell the DUP that if they don't grow up then the rules will be changed to stop them blocking Stormont?

    If they want to be part of the UK, how about they follow what the UK Parliament wants.

    And wants by 515 to 29. It could not be more clear cut.

    How many Tories? Presumably DUP voted against?
    Unconfirmed 23
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,802
    Sounds to me like Johnson and Jenkin have previously conferred about these Qs and As
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,870
    IanB2 said:

    Sounds to me like Johnson and Jenkin have previously conferred about these Qs and As

    Based on what? Seems like an obvious set of questions to me.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,728
    Driver said:

    I am just hearing "blah, blah, blah", if you can't blind with science, baffle with bullsh*t.

    It's not about Partygate, it is about LYING to Parliament.

    The expression 'he protests too much' comes to mind and my good lady has just said this is painful to listen to
    I switched it off in the end. It still pains me to think that this idiot was once PM of our great country, and the choice was between him and Corbyn. Our two party system needs radical reform.
    It does. But how do you do that without it quickly settling into a left block and a right block, the leaders of which are effectively the only candidates for PM?
    The leaders are chosen by memberships that are a bare fraction of the total electorate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,396

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    23 Tories voting no apparently. Disaster for the ERG.

    Who was the poster who predicted 100-150 Tory rebels?
    HYUFD said it will reflect the support Johnson has in parliament. lol.
    I didn't make any prediction on figures however.
    You must be in despair

    As I predicted the ERG are irrelevant now
    I voted for Sunak in the leadership election not Truss if you recall, so I am actually more pro Sunak than most Conservative members
    I have just collapsed laughing
    Only 43% of Conservative members voted for Rishi like me, 57% voted for Truss
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,160
    TOPPING said:

    Selebian said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT :

    Sunak is definitely upping his game. A more pragmatic and less ideologically Thatcherite approach to the strikes, improved Commons performances, and a general sense of him growing into the role.

    Some partial improvements in the polls as a result ; it won't be enough to win the Tories the next election, but he might be the only force that could save them from a terrible reduction in seats , and rescue them from irrelevance.

    Sunak growing into the role of PM is precisely what Boris failed to do. Great to see the difference between the two.
    Boris sank into the role of PM, going native and locking the country down unnecessarily and worse keeping us locked down even after the country had vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Had we not had a lockdown, then Boris would probably still be PM now.
    It's an interesting counterfactual. Could he really have ridden out the hysteria if we had followed the Swedish approach?
    Nevertheless in the round Sweden came out no better and no worse than us in terms of health outcomes and with a lot less economic and hidden social damage.
    Quite a bit worse than comparable neighbours on deaths, though. And with restrictions not really that much looser than the UK - more stringent than UK at some time points - despite the initial hype.

    ETA: embed didn't work, but see comparison here (using the Oxford index).

    E2TA pic:


    E3TA: Not to trivialise the differences, which were substantial, particularly in first lockdown periods
    As I posted, a good BBG article:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-opinion-lessons-learned-from-covid-pandemic-global-comparison/

    Sweden looks like it had 50% of the excess deaths per million vs UK. It did worse than its neighbours but better than most of Europe so make of that what you will.

    In particular it is worth quoting this bit in full:

    "On some of those measures, Sweden has objectively fared better than countries that prescribed lockdowns. Its young people are doing especially well compared to those of other nations.

    "According to an analysis of 15 countries, youngsters on average lost a third of a year’s worth of learning during the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, kids from poor households suffered most. By contrast, a different paper found that Swedish students showed no learning gaps in literacy at all (math skills weren’t part of the study). Nor did the pandemic exacerbate the deficits of less-well-off children.

    "The evidence on mental health tells a similar story. An analysis of 11 countries that had lockdowns and school closures shows that depression and anxiety increased dramatically among young people. By contrast, a study of Swedish university students found negligible effects on depression, and even small improvements in anxiety and stress."
    The first year of lockdowns was definitely way way stricter in the UK than in Sweden - if the Oxford Stringency Index doesn't show this it just proves that the index is a waste of time. You have to look and compare the actual measures in place, the Stringency Index doesn't do this. It is a very blunt instrument that seems to be based on incomplete information. It doesn't even seem to include a variable for closing non-essential shops etc, but does include a variable for 'public information campaign' which isn't a lockdown restriction.

    Eg, for schools the options are:
    0 - No measures
    1 - recommend closing
    2 - Require closing (only some levels or categories,
    eg just high school, or just public schools)
    3 - Require closing all levels

    Which completely fails to capture the variety of measures in place in different places.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    First question from Jenkin basically destroys Boris’s defence.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1638555451141902337?s=20
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,879

    Driver said:

    I am just hearing "blah, blah, blah", if you can't blind with science, baffle with bullsh*t.

    It's not about Partygate, it is about LYING to Parliament.

    The expression 'he protests too much' comes to mind and my good lady has just said this is painful to listen to
    I switched it off in the end. It still pains me to think that this idiot was once PM of our great country, and the choice was between him and Corbyn. Our two party system needs radical reform.
    It does. But how do you do that without it quickly settling into a left block and a right block, the leaders of which are effectively the only candidates for PM?
    The leaders are chosen by memberships that are a bare fraction of the total electorate.
    Indeed so. PR won't change that. Nor will it change that the Tory and Labour leaders are effectively the only candidates for PM, because even under PR neither party is going below 25% even in the direst circumstances for them.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,691
    It's obvious - that room is quite large and the people could have been spaced out more in it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,637

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Somewhat polemical but there is a lot of truth in this interview from CNN.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vK4y6C1Uuhw

    It isn't clear where developed countries are going in the long term regards family formation, fertility rates and male inclusion.

    The problem being that religious people have larger families and hence evolution is working against common sense?
    Declining religious views may be a factor but it isn't what the interviewee is talking about. More single people, fewer children, an ageing population and an increasing number of men bereft of purpose, drive and optimism.
    Like those of us reduced to sadly sitting alone and posting comment on PB all day? Including some claiming otherwise to be internationally renowned authors and travel correspondents?
    Some of those drawing attention to the issue may be annoying but the problem is very real.

    I'll admit as a 40 year old single man that I'm part of the problem I guess! Whilst some on the left blame post-2010 austerity and expensive UK childcare, I hadn't realised how much it is true of other western countries as well. The trend is similar.
    My wife commented at my rowing club Christmas dinner that the groupings were

    1) The serious rowers
    2) The 30 somethings looking for a partner
    3) The ancient (like me) trying to get some exercise
    MikeL said:

    Time to tell the DUP that if they don't grow up then the rules will be changed to stop them blocking Stormont?

    If they want to be part of the UK, how about they follow what the UK Parliament wants.

    And wants by 515 to 29. It could not be more clear cut.

    So you want to save the peace process by destroying the peace process?

    The reason that the largest party on each side has a block on the process was that was the price for getting SF onboard, originally.

    Bit late to say - "That's a Nationalist/Republican veto only".

    I've said it before.

    After selecting, rewarding and giving treats to face eating leopards for decades, don't be surprised when face eating leopardry becomes awfully fashionable.
  • Dan Hodges

    First question from Jenkin (conservative) destroys Boris's defence
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,385
    "invisible electrified fence" popping up regularly on buzz-word bingo....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,802
    HYUFD said:

    I am just hearing "blah, blah, blah", if you can't blind with science, baffle with bullsh*t.

    It's not about Partygate, it is about LYING to Parliament.

    The expression 'he protests too much' comes to mind and my good lady has just said this is painful to listen to
    I switched it off in the end. It still pains me to think that this idiot was once PM of our great country, and the choice was between him and Corbyn. Our two party system needs radical reform.
    In a multi party system under PR Johnson could lead RefUK, Corbyn the TUSC, while Starmer still led Labour and Sunak still led the Tories
    What a shame that your party has set itself irrevocably against such an improvement to our national politics, then.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,691
    Someone now needs to give the measurements of that room.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,396
    edited March 2023
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    23 Tories voting no apparently. Disaster for the ERG.

    Who was the poster who predicted 100-150 Tory rebels?
    HYUFD said it will reflect the support Johnson has in parliament. lol.
    I didn't make any prediction on figures however.
    You must be in despair

    As I predicted the ERG are irrelevant now
    I voted for Sunak in the leadership election not Truss if you recall, so I am actually more pro Sunak than most Conservative members
    I have just collapsed laughing
    Only 43% of Conservative members voted for Rishi like me, 57% voted for Truss
    In the Conservative Party though unlike the other main parties MPs put forward only 2 candidates to members and MPs alone can VONC the party leader.

    Labour or the SNP though are stuck with an extreme leader until either they resign or most members turn against them. The LDs are too but their leaders are normally moderates

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640
    Boris knew they had mitigations in No 10 that went well beyond that required in the guidance
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,923
    edited March 2023
    Sean_F said:

    biggles said:

    ping said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Fpt (Uganda Homophobia);


    felix said:

    ping said:

    Contemporary Ugandan attitudes towards homosexuality are heavily influenced by the legacy of Kabaka Mwanga and the events at Namuwongo, in the 1880’s.

    It’s one of the key founding myths of the (otherwise improbable) Ugandan nation.

    Very little journalism covering the story shows any understanding of this.

    They’ve taken our bullshit colonialism and run with it.

    I was waiting for the first one to blame us for this vote...

    Sean_F said:

    ping said:

    Contemporary Ugandan attitudes towards homosexuality are heavily influenced by the legacy of Kabaka Mwanga in the 1880’s.

    It’s one of the key Ugandan founding myths.

    Very little journalism covering the story shows any understanding of this.

    They’ve taken our bullshit colonialism and run with it.

    It’s more of a reaction against colonialism.

    France abolished laws against gay sex in 1791, so, it was never a crime in the French Empire. But most former French colonies made it so, after independence.

    Most former British colonies made the laws more stringent.
    It will still be our fault, somehow.
    These post by @Casino_Royale & @felix display extreme ignorance. You’ve both chosen to misrepresent what I posted and turn it into a cheap point in the British right wing culture war.

    Do you have even the most basic understanding of Ugandan history? Or the political debate about homosexuality in Uganda since the mid 2000’s?

    You don’t think Namugongo is relevant? Why is Uganda so much more hostile to homosexuality vis-a-vis other African countries?

    If you are remotely interested/concerned about homophobia in Uganda, you have to understand the political weaponisation of the Uganda martyrs in the project of nation building.

    As I said, they’ve taken our colonial bullshit and run with it. How is that not true?
    Homosexuality is also illegal in most of the former French colonies in North Africa. South Africa though, which was part of the British Empire, is the only African nation where homosexual marriage is legal

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_by_country_or_territory
    Legality is one thing, day-to-day social/religious/state repression, another.

    Life can be pretty shitty for queers in SA, despite its legality, while being surprisingly unproblematic for queers in other places where homosexuality is illegal.

    Homophobia in Uganda is a bit a special case. It is intrinsically linked to colonialism and the legacy of the king of Buganda - Kabaka Mwanga II’s tyrannical rule - his sexual abuse of his male pages, their conversion to Christianity and execution.

    The founding myth of the entire, fragile post-colonial entity that is Uganda is rooted in their ancestors being martyred for standing against homosexuality. Ugandans largely buy into this interpretation of their history and for many is a key foundation of their faith.

    We would see it as a simple abuse of power, the homosexuality and religious angles, unimportant.

    But that ain’t how your average Ugandan sees it.

    For Museveni, homophobia/homosexuality also plays into his management of the complex relationship between the centre (and the other tribes) and the Baganda.

    Last nights vote in Kampala cannot be explained without reference to British colonialism.

    The PB right wingers are just, flat out wrong.
    I always understood that Mwanga was a link to an older Ugandan tradition of being very open to gay and trans people within its culture. I assumed the point you were making was that we came in and ended that by applying our 19th century Christian laws, and now they are stuck with them and the religion that grew out of what we gave them.

    I’m interested if it’s more complex than that?
    Given that he murdered the pages, prior to Uganda becoming a British Protectorate, it’s not immediately apparent that the British are to blame.
    a) We introduced the religion.
    b) The East India Company was there and we were responsible for it; but
    c) I think “blame” is a pointless concept in history once everyone involved is dead, and my overall view is that the Empire was more good than bad, but we should still recognise the bad (whilst noting that, in this case, at the time it would have been viewed as sensible morality).

  • If Jenkins is to go by Johnson is toast
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    If Jenkins is to go by Johnson is toast

    Details......not exactly Johnson's strong suit......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,385
    Boris is a balloon animal with a slow puncture...
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 687
    It looks like I will need more popcorn........
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640
    If Jenkyns is supposed to be on Boris's side.... Boris is a gonner
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,852
    The whole thing is demeaning. The man's a congenital liar.

    He's a horror show. Quite a harmless one now. Watching him squirm doesn't seem t be serving a purpose. It only reminds Tory MPs and Brexiteers of their stupidity but it's now far too late.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,288
    HYUFD said:

    23 Tories voting no apparently. Disaster for the ERG.

    Who was the poster who predicted 100-150 Tory rebels?
    HYUFD said it will reflect the support Johnson has in parliament. lol.
    I didn't make any prediction on figures however.
    I guess you gave the opinion "in good faith"
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 880
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    23 Tories voting no apparently. Disaster for the ERG.

    Who was the poster who predicted 100-150 Tory rebels?
    HYUFD said it will reflect the support Johnson has in parliament. lol.
    I didn't make any prediction on figures however.
    You must be in despair

    As I predicted the ERG are irrelevant now
    I voted for Sunak in the leadership election not Truss if you recall, so I am actually more pro Sunak than most Conservative members
    I have just collapsed laughing
    Only 43% of Conservative members voted for Rishi like me, 57% voted for Truss
    In the Conservative Party though unlike the other main parties MPs put forward only 2 candidates to members and MPs alone can VONC the party leader.

    Labour or the SNP though are stuck with an extreme leader until either they resign or most members turn against them. The LDs are too but their leaders are normally moderates

    I do think that the Conservative leadership process is the best of the main parties.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    Could finally be seeing Johnsons lies catching up with him.

    Sounds oddly defensive and angry
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,691
    Why not thank people for their work in the room which DID have screens?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,879
    Unpopular said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    23 Tories voting no apparently. Disaster for the ERG.

    Who was the poster who predicted 100-150 Tory rebels?
    HYUFD said it will reflect the support Johnson has in parliament. lol.
    I didn't make any prediction on figures however.
    You must be in despair

    As I predicted the ERG are irrelevant now
    I voted for Sunak in the leadership election not Truss if you recall, so I am actually more pro Sunak than most Conservative members
    I have just collapsed laughing
    Only 43% of Conservative members voted for Rishi like me, 57% voted for Truss
    In the Conservative Party though unlike the other main parties MPs put forward only 2 candidates to members and MPs alone can VONC the party leader.

    Labour or the SNP though are stuck with an extreme leader until either they resign or most members turn against them. The LDs are too but their leaders are normally moderates

    I do think that the Conservative leadership process is the best of the main parties.
    I think it's fine for opposition but in government there's a strong argument for either cutting the members out of the process, or perhaps reversing it - members pick the shortlist but MPs have the final say.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772
    He was there for 25 mins...sounds a bit more than just a quick farewell to a staff member.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,923
    Hmmm. The reflective majority is, what, 60? So if there were 20 rebels then Rishi looks like he has a working majority of 20. That’ll do. Completely safe until the election and can get through most things he might want. Also suggest the Small Boats legislation will get through in the end, since that result means he has some good will.

    Maybe the Tories are rediscovering loyalty?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,267
    edited March 2023
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    23 Tories voting no apparently. Disaster for the ERG.

    Who was the poster who predicted 100-150 Tory rebels?
    HYUFD said it will reflect the support Johnson has in parliament. lol.
    I didn't make any prediction on figures however.
    You must be in despair

    As I predicted the ERG are irrelevant now
    I voted for Sunak in the leadership election not Truss if you recall, so I am actually more pro Sunak than most Conservative members
    I have just collapsed laughing
    Only 43% of Conservative members voted for Rishi like me, 57% voted for Truss
    In the Conservative Party though unlike the other main parties MPs put forward only 2 candidates to members and MPs alone can VONC the party leader.

    Labour or the SNP though are stuck with an extreme leader until either they resign or most members turn against them. The LDs are too but their leaders are normally moderates

    This post makes no sense. Are you Boris Johnson and are you posting whilst being interviewed by Bernard Jenkin?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,597
    biggles said:

    Sean_F said:

    biggles said:

    ping said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Fpt (Uganda Homophobia);


    felix said:

    ping said:

    Contemporary Ugandan attitudes towards homosexuality are heavily influenced by the legacy of Kabaka Mwanga and the events at Namuwongo, in the 1880’s.

    It’s one of the key founding myths of the (otherwise improbable) Ugandan nation.

    Very little journalism covering the story shows any understanding of this.

    They’ve taken our bullshit colonialism and run with it.

    I was waiting for the first one to blame us for this vote...

    Sean_F said:

    ping said:

    Contemporary Ugandan attitudes towards homosexuality are heavily influenced by the legacy of Kabaka Mwanga in the 1880’s.

    It’s one of the key Ugandan founding myths.

    Very little journalism covering the story shows any understanding of this.

    They’ve taken our bullshit colonialism and run with it.

    It’s more of a reaction against colonialism.

    France abolished laws against gay sex in 1791, so, it was never a crime in the French Empire. But most former French colonies made it so, after independence.

    Most former British colonies made the laws more stringent.
    It will still be our fault, somehow.
    These post by @Casino_Royale & @felix display extreme ignorance. You’ve both chosen to misrepresent what I posted and turn it into a cheap point in the British right wing culture war.

    Do you have even the most basic understanding of Ugandan history? Or the political debate about homosexuality in Uganda since the mid 2000’s?

    You don’t think Namugongo is relevant? Why is Uganda so much more hostile to homosexuality vis-a-vis other African countries?

    If you are remotely interested/concerned about homophobia in Uganda, you have to understand the political weaponisation of the Uganda martyrs in the project of nation building.

    As I said, they’ve taken our colonial bullshit and run with it. How is that not true?
    Homosexuality is also illegal in most of the former French colonies in North Africa. South Africa though, which was part of the British Empire, is the only African nation where homosexual marriage is legal

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_by_country_or_territory
    Legality is one thing, day-to-day social/religious/state repression, another.

    Life can be pretty shitty for queers in SA, despite its legality, while being surprisingly unproblematic for queers in other places where homosexuality is illegal.

    Homophobia in Uganda is a bit a special case. It is intrinsically linked to colonialism and the legacy of the king of Buganda - Kabaka Mwanga II’s tyrannical rule - his sexual abuse of his male pages, their conversion to Christianity and execution.

    The founding myth of the entire, fragile post-colonial entity that is Uganda is rooted in their ancestors being martyred for standing against homosexuality. Ugandans largely buy into this interpretation of their history and for many is a key foundation of their faith.

    We would see it as a simple abuse of power, the homosexuality and religious angles, unimportant.

    But that ain’t how your average Ugandan sees it.

    For Museveni, homophobia/homosexuality also plays into his management of the complex relationship between the centre (and the other tribes) and the Baganda.

    Last nights vote in Kampala cannot be explained without reference to British colonialism.

    The PB right wingers are just, flat out wrong.
    I always understood that Mwanga was a link to an older Ugandan tradition of being very open to gay and trans people within its culture. I assumed the point you were making was that we came in and ended that by applying our 19th century Christian laws, and now they are stuck with them and the religion that grew out of what we gave them.

    I’m interested if it’s more complex than that?
    Given that he murdered the pages, prior to Uganda becoming a British Protectorate, it’s not immediately apparent that the British are to blame.
    a) We introduced the religion.
    b) The East India Company was there and we were responsible for it; but
    c) I think “blame” is a pointless concept in history once everyone involved is dead, and my overall view is that the Empire was more good than bad, but we should still recognise the bad (whilst noting that, in this case, at the time it would have been viewed as sensible morality).

    More than one religion, of course, since at that time there was also a strong Catholic movement introduced by other European missionaries - along with Islam.
    Complicated and messy, even by colonial standards.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640

    Could finally be seeing Johnsons lies catching up with him.

    Sounds oddly defensive and angry

    He does
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,227
    edited March 2023
    After all the bloviation in his opening statement it’s all falling apart now.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772
    He keeps saying it's impossible not to drift themselves close to each other.


    That's not a drift. in any of these cases.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,879
    biggles said:

    Hmmm. The reflective majority is, what, 60? So if there were 20 rebels then Rishi looks like he has a working majority of 20. That’ll do. Completely safe until the election and can get through most things he might want. Also suggest the Small Boats legislation will get through in the end, since that result means he has some good will.

    Maybe the Tories are rediscovering loyalty?

    66, according to the Parliament website, though this counts ex-Tory independents as opposition, I believe: https://members.parliament.uk/parties/Commons
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,288
    Driver said:

    Unpopular said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    23 Tories voting no apparently. Disaster for the ERG.

    Who was the poster who predicted 100-150 Tory rebels?
    HYUFD said it will reflect the support Johnson has in parliament. lol.
    I didn't make any prediction on figures however.
    You must be in despair

    As I predicted the ERG are irrelevant now
    I voted for Sunak in the leadership election not Truss if you recall, so I am actually more pro Sunak than most Conservative members
    I have just collapsed laughing
    Only 43% of Conservative members voted for Rishi like me, 57% voted for Truss
    In the Conservative Party though unlike the other main parties MPs put forward only 2 candidates to members and MPs alone can VONC the party leader.

    Labour or the SNP though are stuck with an extreme leader until either they resign or most members turn against them. The LDs are too but their leaders are normally moderates

    I do think that the Conservative leadership process is the best of the main parties.
    I think it's fine for opposition but in government there's a strong argument for either cutting the members out of the process, or perhaps reversing it - members pick the shortlist but MPs have the final say.
    IMHO the members should choose the party chairman only. The MPs know the individuals, plus they are elected by normal people (caveat needed) who are not necessarily political geeks. MPs voting for party leaders is actually the most democratic
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,355

    Could finally be seeing Johnsons lies catching up with him.

    Sounds oddly defensive and angry

    If he does lose his temper he'll be in real trouble!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,288

    If Jenkyns is supposed to be on Boris's side.... Boris is a gonner

    I missed it. What did he ask?
  • Conservative against WF (22 ) + 6 DUP + 1 Independent = 29

    Adam Africa's
    Jake Berry
    Peter Bone
    William Cash
    Christopher Chope
    Simon Clarke
    Richard Drax
    James Duddridge
    Duncan Smith
    Mark Francois
    Jonathan Gullis
    Adam Holloway
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Boris Johnson
    David Jones
    Danny Kruger
    Craig Mackinlay
    Matthew Offord
    Priti Patel
    John Redwood
    Rees Mogg
    Liz Truss
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,691
    1) The event could have been held in the room with screens.

    2) The room is big enough for people to space out more.

    3) It does not take 25 minutes to thank someone when they leave. 5 minutes would certainly do.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,288
    bugger- i cant resist switching it back on
  • I’m not sure I can watch any more of this without wanting to throw my remote control at the TV.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,597

    If Jenkyn's is supposed to be on Boris's side.... Boris is a gonner

    From the last time they faced each other in a Committee room, I think that's exceedingly unlikely.
    They appeared then to despise each other - and Jenkin gave him an pretty good roasting at the time.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640
    Did the guidance include as a mitigation "you must social distance unless you are a thick skinned liar" if it did Boris will be fine!!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,805
    edited March 2023
    Good day for Sunak. Carries the vote without having to rely on external support.
    Bad day for embittered former PMs.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,799
    edited March 2023
    This bit also stuck out in the report:

    "Treating people as mature and responsible citizens paid off for Sweden."

    It is depressing that the common consensus, certainly on PB, is/was that you can't trust the Brits and that given half a chance we would all go and kill granny at a moment's notice.

    I don't believe that is the case and am suspicious of those who take such a line.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,629
    TOPPING said:

    Selebian said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT :

    Sunak is definitely upping his game. A more pragmatic and less ideologically Thatcherite approach to the strikes, improved Commons performances, and a general sense of him growing into the role.

    Some partial improvements in the polls as a result ; it won't be enough to win the Tories the next election, but he might be the only force that could save them from a terrible reduction in seats , and rescue them from irrelevance.

    Sunak growing into the role of PM is precisely what Boris failed to do. Great to see the difference between the two.
    Boris sank into the role of PM, going native and locking the country down unnecessarily and worse keeping us locked down even after the country had vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Had we not had a lockdown, then Boris would probably still be PM now.
    It's an interesting counterfactual. Could he really have ridden out the hysteria if we had followed the Swedish approach?
    Nevertheless in the round Sweden came out no better and no worse than us in terms of health outcomes and with a lot less economic and hidden social damage.
    Quite a bit worse than comparable neighbours on deaths, though. And with restrictions not really that much looser than the UK - more stringent than UK at some time points - despite the initial hype.

    ETA: embed didn't work, but see comparison here (using the Oxford index).

    E2TA pic:


    E3TA: Not to trivialise the differences, which were substantial, particularly in first lockdown periods
    As I posted, a good BBG article:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-opinion-lessons-learned-from-covid-pandemic-global-comparison/

    Sweden looks like it had 50% of the excess deaths per million vs UK. It did worse than its neighbours but better than most of Europe so make of that what you will.

    In particular it is worth quoting this bit in full:

    "On some of those measures, Sweden has objectively fared better than countries that prescribed lockdowns. Its young people are doing especially well compared to those of other nations.

    "According to an analysis of 15 countries, youngsters on average lost a third of a year’s worth of learning during the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, kids from poor households suffered most. By contrast, a different paper found that Swedish students showed no learning gaps in literacy at all (math skills weren’t part of the study). Nor did the pandemic exacerbate the deficits of less-well-off children.

    "The evidence on mental health tells a similar story. An analysis of 11 countries that had lockdowns and school closures shows that depression and anxiety increased dramatically among young people. By contrast, a study of Swedish university students found negligible effects on depression, and even small improvements in anxiety and stress."
    Yep. There were many things wrong with the UK approach. Undoubtedly some benefits to the Swedish approach. But it's wrong to pretend either that Sweden is comparable, on a national basis, to the UK in terms of natural ability of the virus to spread or that Sweden essentially no restrictions. Neither is true.

    So, a better comparison is with it's more similar neighbours - very interesting to look at e.g. the literacy/lost schooling and effects in the more comparable countries that had stricter lockdowns (not in the article, but maybe in the links, which I haven't followed).

    It's a shame, epidemiologically, that a more comparable country to the UK didn't take a Sweden-like approach.

    FWIW, I think we all have a lot to learn from Sweden for next time, but some of that is in relation to preparedness and levels of healthcare resilience etc. It's my view, raving left academic that I am, that we have a lot to learn from Sweden across a whole range of areas. We'd have to be prepared to pay for it though.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,227
    Jenkins delivers the killer question .

    Would you have told the public it was okay to hold a similar gathering .
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 880
    nico679 said:

    Jenkins delivers the killer question .

    Would you have told the public it was okay to hold a similar gathering .

    Wish I could watch, but unfortunately have found myself busy at work. What was his answer like?
  • Unpopular said:

    nico679 said:

    Jenkins delivers the killer question .

    Would you have told the public it was okay to hold a similar gathering .

    Wish I could watch, but unfortunately have found myself busy at work. What was his answer like?
    Bloviating bullshit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,396

    Driver said:

    Unpopular said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    23 Tories voting no apparently. Disaster for the ERG.

    Who was the poster who predicted 100-150 Tory rebels?
    HYUFD said it will reflect the support Johnson has in parliament. lol.
    I didn't make any prediction on figures however.
    You must be in despair

    As I predicted the ERG are irrelevant now
    I voted for Sunak in the leadership election not Truss if you recall, so I am actually more pro Sunak than most Conservative members
    I have just collapsed laughing
    Only 43% of Conservative members voted for Rishi like me, 57% voted for Truss
    In the Conservative Party though unlike the other main parties MPs put forward only 2 candidates to members and MPs alone can VONC the party leader.

    Labour or the SNP though are stuck with an extreme leader until either they resign or most members turn against them. The LDs are too but their leaders are normally moderates

    I do think that the Conservative leadership process is the best of the main parties.
    I think it's fine for opposition but in government there's a strong argument for either cutting the members out of the process, or perhaps reversing it - members pick the shortlist but MPs have the final say.
    IMHO the members should choose the party chairman only. The MPs know the individuals, plus they are elected by normal people (caveat needed) who are not necessarily political geeks. MPs voting for party leaders is actually the most democratic
    No in opposition members should get the final say and let the public decide if they want to make the leader they chose PM at a general election.

    In government though yes MPs alone should choose the new PM
  • Could finally be seeing Johnsons lies catching up with him.

    Sounds oddly defensive and angry

    If he does lose his temper he'll be in real trouble!
    He is in real trouble already and put there by Jenkins his fellow conservative

    It is just embarrassing to watch
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,288

    Conservative against WF (22 ) + 6 DUP + 1 Independent = 29

    Adam Africa's
    Jake Berry
    Peter Bone
    William Cash
    Christopher Chope
    Simon Clarke
    Richard Drax
    James Duddridge
    Duncan Smith
    Mark Francois
    Jonathan Gullis
    Adam Holloway
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Boris Johnson
    David Jones
    Danny Kruger
    Craig Mackinlay
    Matthew Offord
    Priti Patel
    John Redwood
    Rees Mogg
    Liz Truss

    Remove the whip from them all
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640
    Ah the bell

    Can the bloke in Boris's corner throw in the towel??

    Started OKish for Boris. He has totally lost it now.

    Gone from fairly composed to Flustered bullshitter

    As Pete said earlier lets just jump to the end now its over for Boris
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,597
    Unpopular said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    23 Tories voting no apparently. Disaster for the ERG.

    Who was the poster who predicted 100-150 Tory rebels?
    HYUFD said it will reflect the support Johnson has in parliament. lol.
    I didn't make any prediction on figures however.
    You must be in despair

    As I predicted the ERG are irrelevant now
    I voted for Sunak in the leadership election not Truss if you recall, so I am actually more pro Sunak than most Conservative members
    I have just collapsed laughing
    Only 43% of Conservative members voted for Rishi like me, 57% voted for Truss
    In the Conservative Party though unlike the other main parties MPs put forward only 2 candidates to members and MPs alone can VONC the party leader.

    Labour or the SNP though are stuck with an extreme leader until either they resign or most members turn against them. The LDs are too but their leaders are normally moderates

    I do think that the Conservative leadership process is the best of the main parties.
    That is an Unpopular opinion.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,267

    Conservative against WF (22 ) + 6 DUP + 1 Independent = 29

    Adam Africa's
    Jake Berry
    Peter Bone
    William Cash
    Christopher Chope
    Simon Clarke
    Richard Drax
    James Duddridge
    Duncan Smith
    Mark Francois
    Jonathan Gullis
    Adam Holloway
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Boris Johnson
    David Jones
    Danny Kruger
    Craig Mackinlay
    Matthew Offord
    Priti Patel
    John Redwood
    Rees Mogg
    Liz Truss

    This list? Were you asked who are the maddest Conservative MPs in Parliament. I hadn't realised Prue Leith minor was a bonkers Brexiteer.
  • If this was a trial the judge would sum up to the jury that Boris Johnson was an unreliable witness.
  • I’m not sure I can watch any more of this without wanting to throw my remote control at the TV.

    It is the ultimate car crash and delivered by a fellow conservative
  • Conservative against WF (22 ) + 6 DUP + 1 Independent = 29

    Adam Africa's
    Jake Berry
    Peter Bone
    William Cash
    Christopher Chope
    Simon Clarke
    Richard Drax
    James Duddridge
    Duncan Smith
    Mark Francois
    Jonathan Gullis
    Adam Holloway
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Boris Johnson
    David Jones
    Danny Kruger
    Craig Mackinlay
    Matthew Offord
    Priti Patel
    John Redwood
    Rees Mogg
    Liz Truss

    A bit racist to call Adam Afriyie err Adam Africa.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,191

    Conservative against WF (22 ) + 6 DUP + 1 Independent = 29

    Adam Africa's
    Jake Berry
    Peter Bone
    William Cash
    Christopher Chope
    Simon Clarke
    Richard Drax
    James Duddridge
    Duncan Smith
    Mark Francois
    Jonathan Gullis
    Adam Holloway
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Boris Johnson
    David Jones
    Danny Kruger
    Craig Mackinlay
    Matthew Offord
    Priti Patel
    John Redwood
    Rees Mogg
    Liz Truss

    Roll call of the biggest fruit loops in the Tory Party?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640

    Conservative against WF (22 ) + 6 DUP + 1 Independent = 29

    Adam Africa's
    Jake Berry
    Peter Bone
    William Cash
    Christopher Chope
    Simon Clarke
    Richard Drax
    James Duddridge
    Duncan Smith
    Mark Francois
    Jonathan Gullis
    Adam Holloway
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Boris Johnson
    David Jones
    Danny Kruger
    Craig Mackinlay
    Matthew Offord
    Priti Patel
    John Redwood
    Rees Mogg
    Liz Truss

    Remove the whip from them all
    I think the 6 DUPers are following their whip and the Independent owns his own whip!
  • Conservative against WF (22 ) + 6 DUP + 1 Independent = 29

    Adam Africa's
    Jake Berry
    Peter Bone
    William Cash
    Christopher Chope
    Simon Clarke
    Richard Drax
    James Duddridge
    Duncan Smith
    Mark Francois
    Jonathan Gullis
    Adam Holloway
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Boris Johnson
    David Jones
    Danny Kruger
    Craig Mackinlay
    Matthew Offord
    Priti Patel
    John Redwood
    Rees Mogg
    Liz Truss

    A bit racist to call Adam Afriyie err Adam Africa.
    Oh dear - must have been autocorrect

    Thank you for correcting it
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,597
    edited March 2023

    Conservative against WF (22 ) + 6 DUP + 1 Independent = 29

    Adam Africa's
    Jake Berry
    Peter Bone
    William Cash
    Christopher Chope
    Simon Clarke
    Richard Drax
    James Duddridge
    Duncan Smith
    Mark Francois
    Jonathan Gullis
    Adam Holloway
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Boris Johnson
    David Jones
    Danny Kruger
    Craig Mackinlay
    Matthew Offord
    Priti Patel
    John Redwood
    Rees Mogg
    Liz Truss

    A bit racist to call Adam Afriyie err Adam Africa.
    I'm guessing that was auto-incorrect.
    Does that sort of thing to me all the time.

    Just tried typing it, and corrected to 'Afire'.
    Also suggests 'Affray'.

  • Conservative against WF (22 ) + 6 DUP + 1 Independent = 29

    Adam Africa's
    Jake Berry
    Peter Bone
    William Cash
    Christopher Chope
    Simon Clarke
    Richard Drax
    James Duddridge
    Duncan Smith
    Mark Francois
    Jonathan Gullis
    Adam Holloway
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Boris Johnson
    David Jones
    Danny Kruger
    Craig Mackinlay
    Matthew Offord
    Priti Patel
    John Redwood
    Rees Mogg
    Liz Truss

    This list? Were you asked who are the maddest Conservative MPs in Parliament. I hadn't realised Prue Leith minor was a bonkers Brexiteer.
    And Dorries abstained is somewhat surprising
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,891

    Conservative against WF (22 ) + 6 DUP + 1 Independent = 29

    Adam Africa's
    Jake Berry
    Peter Bone
    William Cash
    Christopher Chope
    Simon Clarke
    Richard Drax
    James Duddridge
    Duncan Smith
    Mark Francois
    Jonathan Gullis
    Adam Holloway
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Boris Johnson
    David Jones
    Danny Kruger
    Craig Mackinlay
    Matthew Offord
    Priti Patel
    John Redwood
    Rees Mogg
    Liz Truss

    Is that all they could muster? Looks as though the sleazy Tories are on a slide.....
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,879

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    Fearless Forecast - much HEAVY lifting attempted by the PB BoJo Brigade today.

    With Fear of Keir way more than palpable, more like pulsating.

    I’m not sure if there’s anyone left in the PB BoJo brigade is there? I think most of them have jumped ship. Leon was the last seen on the bridge I think, and then just for the LOLs
    @HYUFD struggles but most of us want Johnson gone and in my case have supported Sunak for over a year and do see him as the future of the conservative party and able to mitigate the GE24 result

    Today in PMQs he was virtually bouncing with confidence, maybe at the thought of taking on Johnson and the ERG, and his put down of Starmer when Starmer raised Sunak's FPN was perfect
    What was it, Big G?
    Starmer referred to Sunak's FPN and in his reply Sunak said he wanted to address it directly by saying he arrived at the scheduled meeting and accepted the FPN and apologised, but we all now know that the leader of the opposition was being advised by Sue Gray at the time
    How can she have been advising Starmer at the time? She hasn't got the job yet. If Sunak wants to do Johnson's dirty work for him by trashing a dedicated public servant that's not a great endorsement of the idea that he represents a break from Johnsonian sleaze. Still, he got the lolz from the Tory fanbois.
    Chill. It was a good joke. Oh if only people didn't take obvious jokes so seriously on PB.
    Jokes on PB are different from the PM speaking in the House of Commons and trashing government employees, aren't they?
    Jokes are good because there is an element of truth in them. As was the case here.
    It was just trashy BS, pure Johnsonian bilge and a sign the Tories haven't moved on from his era. The FPN was issued by the police, Sue Gray had nothing to do with it.
    Hansard is out and, lo and behold! Sunak didn't say she did.

    Let me just address the issue that the right hon. and learned Gentleman raised, because I said at the time that I respected the decision that the police reached, and I offered an unreserved apology. For the avoidance of doubt, at the moment that that happened, there was a full investigation by a very senior civil servant, the findings of which confirmed that I had no advance knowledge about what had been planned, having arrived early for a meeting. But he does not need me to tell him that; he has probably spoken to the report’s author much more frequently than I have.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    If this was a trial the judge would sum up to the jury that Boris Johnson was an unreliable witness.

    Never grows old:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyos-M48B8U
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772
    These breaks will help Boris. He's constantly on the ropes otherwise.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 687

    If this was a trial the judge would sum up to the jury that Boris Johnson was an unreliable witness.

    If this was a horse race they would shoot him to put him out of his pain.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,870
    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    Fearless Forecast - much HEAVY lifting attempted by the PB BoJo Brigade today.

    With Fear of Keir way more than palpable, more like pulsating.

    I’m not sure if there’s anyone left in the PB BoJo brigade is there? I think most of them have jumped ship. Leon was the last seen on the bridge I think, and then just for the LOLs
    @HYUFD struggles but most of us want Johnson gone and in my case have supported Sunak for over a year and do see him as the future of the conservative party and able to mitigate the GE24 result

    Today in PMQs he was virtually bouncing with confidence, maybe at the thought of taking on Johnson and the ERG, and his put down of Starmer when Starmer raised Sunak's FPN was perfect
    What was it, Big G?
    Starmer referred to Sunak's FPN and in his reply Sunak said he wanted to address it directly by saying he arrived at the scheduled meeting and accepted the FPN and apologised, but we all now know that the leader of the opposition was being advised by Sue Gray at the time
    How can she have been advising Starmer at the time? She hasn't got the job yet. If Sunak wants to do Johnson's dirty work for him by trashing a dedicated public servant that's not a great endorsement of the idea that he represents a break from Johnsonian sleaze. Still, he got the lolz from the Tory fanbois.
    Chill. It was a good joke. Oh if only people didn't take obvious jokes so seriously on PB.
    Jokes on PB are different from the PM speaking in the House of Commons and trashing government employees, aren't they?
    Jokes are good because there is an element of truth in them. As was the case here.
    It was just trashy BS, pure Johnsonian bilge and a sign the Tories haven't moved on from his era. The FPN was issued by the police, Sue Gray had nothing to do with it.
    Hansard is out and, lo and behold! Sunak didn't say she did.

    Let me just address the issue that the right hon. and learned Gentleman raised, because I said at the time that I respected the decision that the police reached, and I offered an unreserved apology. For the avoidance of doubt, at the moment that that happened, there was a full investigation by a very senior civil servant, the findings of which confirmed that I had no advance knowledge about what had been planned, having arrived early for a meeting. But he does not need me to tell him that; he has probably spoken to the report’s author much more frequently than I have.
    Facts, who needs 'em?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,288

    Conservative against WF (22 ) + 6 DUP + 1 Independent = 29

    Adam Africa's
    Jake Berry
    Peter Bone
    William Cash
    Christopher Chope
    Simon Clarke
    Richard Drax
    James Duddridge
    Duncan Smith
    Mark Francois
    Jonathan Gullis
    Adam Holloway
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Boris Johnson
    David Jones
    Danny Kruger
    Craig Mackinlay
    Matthew Offord
    Priti Patel
    John Redwood
    Rees Mogg
    Liz Truss

    Remove the whip from them all
    I think the 6 DUPers are following their whip and the Independent owns his own whip!
    Fair point. Give them the Tory Whip and whip it away from them immediately. Just to be fair and equitable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,597
    edited March 2023

    Conservative against WF (22 ) + 6 DUP + 1 Independent = 29

    Adam Africa's
    Jake Berry
    Peter Bone
    William Cash
    Christopher Chope
    Simon Clarke
    Richard Drax
    James Duddridge
    Duncan Smith
    Mark Francois
    Jonathan Gullis
    Adam Holloway
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Boris Johnson
    David Jones
    Danny Kruger
    Craig Mackinlay
    Matthew Offord
    Priti Patel
    John Redwood
    Rees Mogg
    Liz Truss

    This list? Were you asked who are the maddest Conservative MPs in Parliament. I hadn't realised Prue Leith minor was a bonkers Brexiteer.
    And Dorries abstained is somewhat surprising
    She's not your average fruit loop.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    edited March 2023
    I still don't get this defence of 'the official photographer took pictures therefore we must have thought it was ok'. That could be true, but could simply be they did not care - most of the photos were only seen due to this investigation and other investigations.

    And it just means even more people were supposed to be implausibly ignorant, or perhaps more likely, did not care.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,492
    ping said:

    If residential REIT share prices are a decent forward indicator of house prices, then PRSR down ~30% since last summer indicates there may be more pain ahead for the housing market.

    Or alternatively REITs have been oversold, and are now good value.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,879
    .
    TOPPING said:

    This bit also stuck out in the report:

    "Treating people as mature and responsible citizens paid off for Sweden."

    It is depressing that the common consensus, certainly on PB, is/was that you can't trust the Brits and that given half a chance we would all go and kill granny at a moment's notice.

    I don't believe that is the case and am suspicious of those who take such a line.

    And it really makes no sense because in the real world, people were starting to restrict their interactions from as early as early February 2020 from personal experience, and in the two weeks before lockdown WFH in particular was being introduced rapidly.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,629
    Selebian said:

    TOPPING said:

    Selebian said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT :

    Sunak is definitely upping his game. A more pragmatic and less ideologically Thatcherite approach to the strikes, improved Commons performances, and a general sense of him growing into the role.

    Some partial improvements in the polls as a result ; it won't be enough to win the Tories the next election, but he might be the only force that could save them from a terrible reduction in seats , and rescue them from irrelevance.

    Sunak growing into the role of PM is precisely what Boris failed to do. Great to see the difference between the two.
    Boris sank into the role of PM, going native and locking the country down unnecessarily and worse keeping us locked down even after the country had vaccinated the vulnerable.

    Had we not had a lockdown, then Boris would probably still be PM now.
    It's an interesting counterfactual. Could he really have ridden out the hysteria if we had followed the Swedish approach?
    Nevertheless in the round Sweden came out no better and no worse than us in terms of health outcomes and with a lot less economic and hidden social damage.
    Quite a bit worse than comparable neighbours on deaths, though. And with restrictions not really that much looser than the UK - more stringent than UK at some time points - despite the initial hype.

    ETA: embed didn't work, but see comparison here (using the Oxford index).

    E2TA pic:


    E3TA: Not to trivialise the differences, which were substantial, particularly in first lockdown periods
    As I posted, a good BBG article:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-opinion-lessons-learned-from-covid-pandemic-global-comparison/

    Sweden looks like it had 50% of the excess deaths per million vs UK. It did worse than its neighbours but better than most of Europe so make of that what you will.

    In particular it is worth quoting this bit in full:

    "On some of those measures, Sweden has objectively fared better than countries that prescribed lockdowns. Its young people are doing especially well compared to those of other nations.

    "According to an analysis of 15 countries, youngsters on average lost a third of a year’s worth of learning during the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, kids from poor households suffered most. By contrast, a different paper found that Swedish students showed no learning gaps in literacy at all (math skills weren’t part of the study). Nor did the pandemic exacerbate the deficits of less-well-off children.

    "The evidence on mental health tells a similar story. An analysis of 11 countries that had lockdowns and school closures shows that depression and anxiety increased dramatically among young people. By contrast, a study of Swedish university students found negligible effects on depression, and even small improvements in anxiety and stress."
    Yep. There were many things wrong with the UK approach. Undoubtedly some benefits to the Swedish approach. But it's wrong to pretend either that Sweden is comparable, on a national basis, to the UK in terms of natural ability of the virus to spread or that Sweden essentially no restrictions. Neither is true.

    So, a better comparison is with it's more similar neighbours - very interesting to look at e.g. the literacy/lost schooling and effects in the more comparable countries that had stricter lockdowns (not in the article, but maybe in the links, which I haven't followed).

    It's a shame, epidemiologically, that a more comparable country to the UK didn't take a Sweden-like approach.

    FWIW, I think we all have a lot to learn from Sweden for next time, but some of that is in relation to preparedness and levels of healthcare resilience etc. It's my view, raving left academic that I am, that we have a lot to learn from Sweden across a whole range of areas. We'd have to be prepared to pay for it though.
    Followed some links...

    First review doesn't seem to include any comparable countries.

    Second does include a Denmark study, but Denmark seems to do comparably well to Sweden on missed schooling.

    All from a very quick look, I may have missed things.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,288

    Ah the bell

    Can the bloke in Boris's corner throw in the towel??

    Started OKish for Boris. He has totally lost it now.

    Gone from fairly composed to Flustered bullshitter

    As Pete said earlier lets just jump to the end now its over for Boris

    I am just wondering what sort of dance we can all do on his political grave?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,879

    Conservative against WF (22 ) + 6 DUP + 1 Independent = 29

    Adam Africa's
    Jake Berry
    Peter Bone
    William Cash
    Christopher Chope
    Simon Clarke
    Richard Drax
    James Duddridge
    Duncan Smith
    Mark Francois
    Jonathan Gullis
    Adam Holloway
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Boris Johnson
    David Jones
    Danny Kruger
    Craig Mackinlay
    Matthew Offord
    Priti Patel
    John Redwood
    Rees Mogg
    Liz Truss

    This list? Were you asked who are the maddest Conservative MPs in Parliament. I hadn't realised Prue Leith minor was a bonkers Brexiteer.
    And Dorries abstained is somewhat surprising
    She wasn't mentioned by the Telegraph on the "confirmed rebels" list earlier, which a couple of people noticed but apparently was for a reason.
This discussion has been closed.