Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Super Tuesday – politicalbetting.com

13»

Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    I'm assuming that with all this shit associated with the SNP, the Alba Party must be surging in the polls.

    Doubt it - them - and their leader - are frequently seen as less popular than The Tories in Scotland. I suspect of any the SNP have lost a lot will have swung into "undecided" and some returned to Labour - it will be quite a challenge for the new SNP leader to rebuild the mass of contradictions that was the SNP coalition of voters....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Interesting trend in Budget polling in both Express and Observer - Tories only a couple of points behind Labour on running the economy. Obvs far from ideal esp given historic lead but a damn sight better than a few months ago...

    https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1637401611206107139?s=20
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,995
    Dura_Ace said:

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    Has anyone got any actual information on that state of Reform - finances etc?

    I think it unlikely they will run candidates everywhere
    The structure of Reform UK is quite unusual. They seem only to have the minimum numbers of members required by law, with everyone else being "registered supporters". They've sometimes received substantial financial support from a small number is wealthy individuals.

    So my read on it is that they exist essentially was a shell, a political movement in waiting, that Farage may decide to activate in the run-up to the next GE if he believes that it will be profitable or successful to do so. If he does so decide then I think they would have little trouble in finding the money and candidates to stand in almost every constituency.
    Starmer should promise Farage he can be High Commissioner to Canada after the GE if he stands RefUcK in tory marginals. Tice can have the South Sandwich Islands.
    Why doesn't parliament just pass a law that to be recognized as a proper party, you need five members in each constituency you stand in. And all candidates need to be full voting members. It would stop this sort of shit.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,995
    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany




    https://mobile.twitter.com/Sue_Cowley/status/1637193729743241218

    Yeah this is just like calling Jews blood criminals that need to be exterminated.

    Anti-Semitism is rife in Labour, isn't it?

  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,995
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany




    https://mobile.twitter.com/Sue_Cowley/status/1637193729743241218

    Interesting that she describes the deportees destined for Rwanda as refugees, rather than illegal immigrants.
    Both will get processed in Rwanda and the successful ones will be refugees.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    This is what happened to someone who went against the medical consensus of their time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis

    "Ignaz Philipp Semmelweis (German: [ˈɪɡnaːts ˈzɛml̩vaɪs]; Hungarian: Semmelweis Ignác Fülöp [ˈsɛmmɛlvɛjs ˈiɡnaːts ˈfyløp]; 1 July 1818 – 13 August 1865) was a Hungarian physician and scientist, who was an early pioneer of antiseptic procedures. Described as the "saviour of mothers",[2] he discovered that the incidence of puerperal fever (also known as "childbed fever") could be drastically reduced by requiring hand disinfection in obstetrical clinics. Puerperal fever was common in mid-19th-century hospitals and often fatal. He proposed the practice of washing hands with chlorinated lime solutions in 1847 while working in Vienna General Hospital's First Obstetrical Clinic, where doctors' wards had three times the mortality of midwives' wards.[3] He published a book of his findings in Etiology, Concept and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever.

    Despite various publications of results where hand-washing reduced mortality to below 1%, Semmelweis's observations conflicted with the established scientific and medical opinions of the time and his ideas were rejected by the medical community. He could offer no theoretical explanation for his findings of reduced mortality due to hand-washing, and some doctors were offended at the suggestion that they should wash their hands and mocked him for it. In 1865, the increasingly outspoken Semmelweis allegedly suffered a nervous breakdown and was committed to an asylum by his colleagues. In the asylum he was beaten by the guards. He died 14 days later from a gangrenous wound on his right hand that may have been caused by the beating. His findings earned widespread acceptance only years after his death, when Louis Pasteur confirmed the germ theory, giving Semmelweis' observations a theoretical explanation, and Joseph Lister, acting on Pasteur's research, practised and operated using hygienic methods, with great success."

    Yes but Semmelweis was a doctor, and had experimental evidence to back up his argument.

    He wasn't a conspiracy theorist MP with no Scientific background.
    Time to break out the Sagan quote again:

    But the fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    I'm assuming that with all this shit associated with the SNP, the Alba Party must be surging in the polls.

    I think they’d worked out last week that if you squinted and the wind was in the right direction that they might be up to 6% in the NE of Scotland, which would mean the return of the Eck.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,995

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany

    "Concentration camps"? As far as I'm aware there is no suggestion that people will be imprisoned so that can only be a 1930s-esque confabulation on your part.
    There is a subset of left wingers that are intent on minimizing what happened in the Holocaust by using it as a comparison to everything they dislike.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 583

    Penddu2 said:

    Eabhal said:
    But that is very misleading, as most of the route is just existing tracks that the new trains happen to run on. The real Crossrail is just the bit in the middle.
    Were not £100m's if not £1bn's spent at places like Reading Station to increase track capacity for Crossrail ?
    I'm still trying to figure out how this will work. Reading is being connected to Heathrow 'directly', does that mean all the long distance trains from the west will now go through Heathrow?
    No & Yes - there will be a new 'Heathrow Express' running from Reading to Heathrow Terminal 5 on the new Western approach. It is inconceivable that some of these wont be extended to Bristol & Cardiff. But these will terminate at Heathrow - not rejoin GWR back to Paddington
    So the Reading/Heathrow link won't be joining up with the existing Paddington/Heathrow link?
    Dont think so. The station for Western approach is already built under T5 to take trains to Reading and also to Staines where it could connect to Woking and Waterloo. But not back to Paddington.
  • WillG said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany

    "Concentration camps"? As far as I'm aware there is no suggestion that people will be imprisoned so that can only be a 1930s-esque confabulation on your part.
    There is a subset of left wingers that are intent on minimizing what happened in the Holocaust by using it as a comparison to everything they dislike.
    You mean like Boris Johnson?

    https://www.itv.com/news/2017-01-18/boris-johnson-criticised-after-comparing-hollande-to-a-ww2-guard-giving-punishment-beatings
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    WillG said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany

    "Concentration camps"? As far as I'm aware there is no suggestion that people will be imprisoned so that can only be a 1930s-esque confabulation on your part.
    There is a subset of left wingers that are intent on minimizing what happened in the Holocaust by using it as a comparison to everything they dislike.
    I think you'd find that most people who are intent on minimising what happened in the Holocaust are on the far right. Unless you think people like David Irving and his neo-Nazi fellow travellers are a subset of the left.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    WillG said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany

    "Concentration camps"? As far as I'm aware there is no suggestion that people will be imprisoned so that can only be a 1930s-esque confabulation on your part.
    There is a subset of left wingers that are intent on minimizing what happened in the Holocaust by using it as a comparison to everything they dislike.
    I think you'd find that most people who are intent on minimising what happened in the Holocaust are on the far right. Unless you think people like David Irving and his neo-Nazi fellow travellers are a subset of the left.
    People may minimise for different reasons I suppose - those who support the Nazis and want to pretend it didn't happen or wasn't as bad as it was, and those who are just lazy in comparing other things to it.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 583
    Penddu2 said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Eabhal said:
    But that is very misleading, as most of the route is just existing tracks that the new trains happen to run on. The real Crossrail is just the bit in the middle.
    Were not £100m's if not £1bn's spent at places like Reading Station to increase track capacity for Crossrail ?
    I'm still trying to figure out how this will work. Reading is being connected to Heathrow 'directly', does that mean all the long distance trains from the west will now go through Heathrow?
    No & Yes - there will be a new 'Heathrow Express' running from Reading to Heathrow Terminal 5 on the new Western approach. It is inconceivable that some of these wont be extended to Bristol & Cardiff. But these will terminate at Heathrow - not rejoin GWR back to Paddington
    So the Reading/Heathrow link won't be joining up with the existing Paddington/Heathrow link?
    Dont think so. The station for Western approach is already built under T5 to take trains to Reading and also to Staines where it could connect to Woking and Waterloo. But not back to Paddington.
    And I think the Staines connection may have been dropped.... You have to love the railway vision in Britain.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    they know the 600K has gone walkies
    Malc, this has all been explained, it's woven through the accounts. Perfectly simple.
    18 months of police investigations and reading of same and they have not found it , sounds harder than find Wally.
    To be fair, it is probably the trying not to find it that is the hard bit.
    Reminds me of the time when the Met examined partygate!
    I’ve got a vision of the Police Scotland enquiry team

    “Sarge, what’s with that bag of gold coins I keep tripping over? The one marked “Swag?”

    “Shush, lad. Best not to be asking questions which have answers people don’t like.”
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany

    "Concentration camps"? As far as I'm aware there is no suggestion that people will be imprisoned so that can only be a 1930s-esque confabulation on your part.
    Was just reading a history of the 1918-20 demob of UK and Imperial troops in the Great WAr, and had to stop and reread at one point. One plan was to move the various contingents to "concentration camps" as part of the processing of demobilisation. For instance tommies going home to say Bradford district would be directed to a particular cc for the West Riding but in France, and those to say Exeter would go to the cc designated for Devonians, and then go home from there. Ratrher different meaning, even after the Boer War origin of the term for civilian internees!

    Bit like tear gas being included in “Poison Gas” at the time.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    they know the 600K has gone walkies
    Malc, this has all been explained, it's woven through the accounts. Perfectly simple.
    18 months of police investigations and reading of same and they have not found it , sounds harder than find Wally.
    To be fair, it is probably the trying not to find it that is the hard bit.
    Reminds me of the time when the Met examined partygate!
    I’ve got a vision of the Police Scotland enquiry team

    “Sarge, what’s with that bag of gold coins I keep tripping over? The one marked “Swag?”

    “Shush, lad. Best not to be asking questions which have answers people don’t like.”
    A good excuse to repost my favourite ever bit of police idiocy.

    “Although Essex Police originally thought he died of natural causes, it emerged he had been shot six times”.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-38377329.amp
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    Just been shopping for dinner I'm cooking for Mum and Dad tonight

    Well for Mum. Dad will be eating it though!

    It's all from Michel Roux's The Essence Of French Cooking

    I'm making two starters: Eggs en cocotte with brown shrimp, and Cream of mushroom soup

    For main I'm making Lamb cutlets, Rouen style (that's with a Calvados and chicken liver sauce!) served with fondant potatoes, spinach subrics with mushrooms, and boiled green beans

    I've never made any of it before except mushroom soup and boiled green beans, so I'm a bit nervous

    Look at this this way: they won’t have eaten it before either so they will love it and won’t be judging it against anything else.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    biggles said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    they know the 600K has gone walkies
    Malc, this has all been explained, it's woven through the accounts. Perfectly simple.
    18 months of police investigations and reading of same and they have not found it , sounds harder than find Wally.
    To be fair, it is probably the trying not to find it that is the hard bit.
    Reminds me of the time when the Met examined partygate!
    I’ve got a vision of the Police Scotland enquiry team

    “Sarge, what’s with that bag of gold coins I keep tripping over? The one marked “Swag?”

    “Shush, lad. Best not to be asking questions which have answers people don’t like.”
    A good excuse to repost my favourite ever bit of police idiocy.

    “Although Essex Police originally thought he died of natural causes, it emerged he had been shot six times”.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-38377329.amp
    Turns out being a coroner is super easy

    Greater Essex Coroner Caroline Beasley-Murray said: "I am sure that Mr Palmer was unlawfully killed."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    kle4 said:

    WillG said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany

    "Concentration camps"? As far as I'm aware there is no suggestion that people will be imprisoned so that can only be a 1930s-esque confabulation on your part.
    There is a subset of left wingers that are intent on minimizing what happened in the Holocaust by using it as a comparison to everything they dislike.
    I think you'd find that most people who are intent on minimising what happened in the Holocaust are on the far right. Unless you think people like David Irving and his neo-Nazi fellow travellers are a subset of the left.
    People may minimise for different reasons I suppose - those who support the Nazis and want to pretend it didn't happen or wasn't as bad as it was, and those who are just lazy in comparing other things to it.
    It would have been more accurate to describe it as the language of 1930s Britain:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/19/gary-lineker-stop-the-boats-does-echo-language-of-30s-but-in-britain?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,146
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    This is what happened to someone who went against the medical consensus of their time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis

    "Ignaz Philipp Semmelweis (German: [ˈɪɡnaːts ˈzɛml̩vaɪs]; Hungarian: Semmelweis Ignác Fülöp [ˈsɛmmɛlvɛjs ˈiɡnaːts ˈfyløp]; 1 July 1818 – 13 August 1865) was a Hungarian physician and scientist, who was an early pioneer of antiseptic procedures. Described as the "saviour of mothers",[2] he discovered that the incidence of puerperal fever (also known as "childbed fever") could be drastically reduced by requiring hand disinfection in obstetrical clinics. Puerperal fever was common in mid-19th-century hospitals and often fatal. He proposed the practice of washing hands with chlorinated lime solutions in 1847 while working in Vienna General Hospital's First Obstetrical Clinic, where doctors' wards had three times the mortality of midwives' wards.[3] He published a book of his findings in Etiology, Concept and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever.

    Despite various publications of results where hand-washing reduced mortality to below 1%, Semmelweis's observations conflicted with the established scientific and medical opinions of the time and his ideas were rejected by the medical community. He could offer no theoretical explanation for his findings of reduced mortality due to hand-washing, and some doctors were offended at the suggestion that they should wash their hands and mocked him for it. In 1865, the increasingly outspoken Semmelweis allegedly suffered a nervous breakdown and was committed to an asylum by his colleagues. In the asylum he was beaten by the guards. He died 14 days later from a gangrenous wound on his right hand that may have been caused by the beating. His findings earned widespread acceptance only years after his death, when Louis Pasteur confirmed the germ theory, giving Semmelweis' observations a theoretical explanation, and Joseph Lister, acting on Pasteur's research, practised and operated using hygienic methods, with great success."

    Yes but Semmelweis was a doctor, and had experimental evidence to back up his argument.

    He wasn't a conspiracy theorist MP with no Scientific background.
    Not merely experimental. A clinical trial or trials, too, with controls (if not necessarily well controlled: one wonders also about the different entries for midwives' and doctors' wards). NO idea how good his stat analysis was, but it was certainly of the "very interesting - let's do a proper trial" level by any standard. Especially as hand washing did not cost a lot, except in medics' amourpropre. And even if it was nice to be treated by someone not stinking of the mortuary, it's hard to see now that - or the effect of hgaving a female care for you, not a male - could feed into a placebo effect.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,667
    Completely O/T, but has anybody here mentioned the Lib Dem spring conference? I has just concluded with an excellent speech by Ed Davey.

    But perhaps this is going to be the subject of the next thread?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    This is what happened to someone who went against the medical consensus of their time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis

    "Ignaz Philipp Semmelweis (German: [ˈɪɡnaːts ˈzɛml̩vaɪs]; Hungarian: Semmelweis Ignác Fülöp [ˈsɛmmɛlvɛjs ˈiɡnaːts ˈfyløp]; 1 July 1818 – 13 August 1865) was a Hungarian physician and scientist, who was an early pioneer of antiseptic procedures. Described as the "saviour of mothers",[2] he discovered that the incidence of puerperal fever (also known as "childbed fever") could be drastically reduced by requiring hand disinfection in obstetrical clinics. Puerperal fever was common in mid-19th-century hospitals and often fatal. He proposed the practice of washing hands with chlorinated lime solutions in 1847 while working in Vienna General Hospital's First Obstetrical Clinic, where doctors' wards had three times the mortality of midwives' wards.[3] He published a book of his findings in Etiology, Concept and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever.

    Despite various publications of results where hand-washing reduced mortality to below 1%, Semmelweis's observations conflicted with the established scientific and medical opinions of the time and his ideas were rejected by the medical community. He could offer no theoretical explanation for his findings of reduced mortality due to hand-washing, and some doctors were offended at the suggestion that they should wash their hands and mocked him for it. In 1865, the increasingly outspoken Semmelweis allegedly suffered a nervous breakdown and was committed to an asylum by his colleagues. In the asylum he was beaten by the guards. He died 14 days later from a gangrenous wound on his right hand that may have been caused by the beating. His findings earned widespread acceptance only years after his death, when Louis Pasteur confirmed the germ theory, giving Semmelweis' observations a theoretical explanation, and Joseph Lister, acting on Pasteur's research, practised and operated using hygienic methods, with great success."

    Yes but Semmelweis was a doctor, and had experimental evidence to back up his argument.

    He wasn't a conspiracy theorist MP with no Scientific background.
    Time to break out the Sagan quote again:

    But the fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown
    Yep. The fact is that laymen who opine contra to an informed consensus are almost invariably wrong. And it's perfectly rational - indeed advisable - to assume they are wrong without wasting your time looking in any detail into what they're saying. Life's too short as it is. This 'ignore the heretics' best practice is not invalidated by every now and again one of them being proved right. They are the exceptions that prove the rule.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    biggles said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    they know the 600K has gone walkies
    Malc, this has all been explained, it's woven through the accounts. Perfectly simple.
    18 months of police investigations and reading of same and they have not found it , sounds harder than find Wally.
    To be fair, it is probably the trying not to find it that is the hard bit.
    Reminds me of the time when the Met examined partygate!
    I’ve got a vision of the Police Scotland enquiry team

    “Sarge, what’s with that bag of gold coins I keep tripping over? The one marked “Swag?”

    “Shush, lad. Best not to be asking questions which have answers people don’t like.”
    A good excuse to repost my favourite ever bit of police idiocy.

    “Although Essex Police originally thought he died of natural causes, it emerged he had been shot six times”.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-38377329.amp
    "Freddy" Patel did the autopsy?

    The medics I knew used to joke about him.

    “Shot in the back seven times with a revolver, then decapitated. Obviously suicide by overdose.”
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    ClippP said:

    Completely O/T, but has anybody here mentioned the Lib Dem spring conference? I has just concluded with an excellent speech by Ed Davey.

    But perhaps this is going to be the subject of the next thread?

    Genuinely did not know it was a thing. Even more under the radar than usual.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    edited March 2023
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    WillG said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany

    "Concentration camps"? As far as I'm aware there is no suggestion that people will be imprisoned so that can only be a 1930s-esque confabulation on your part.
    There is a subset of left wingers that are intent on minimizing what happened in the Holocaust by using it as a comparison to everything they dislike.
    I think you'd find that most people who are intent on minimising what happened in the Holocaust are on the far right. Unless you think people like David Irving and his neo-Nazi fellow travellers are a subset of the left.
    People may minimise for different reasons I suppose - those who support the Nazis and want to pretend it didn't happen or wasn't as bad as it was, and those who are just lazy in comparing other things to it.
    It would have been more accurate to describe it as the language of 1930s Britain:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/19/gary-lineker-stop-the-boats-does-echo-language-of-30s-but-in-britain?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    I think one can make a case that, in many ways, politics and debate world wide has moved back towards pre-war “normal”.

    The Brexit debate mirrors, quite closely, free traders vs those wanting imperial preference (whether you were a leaver or remainer will affect which side you t think you resemble) and the US is drifting towards isolationism. Even the behaviour of politicians and parliament fees like it’s from that older age, and the discussion of refugees lines up with how they were viewed pre-war and pre-UNHCR.

    One could go further and argue that those who were remainers represent a “small C” conservatism, mourning the end of the 90s and a moment of post-WW2, post-cold war simplicity and prosperity; and the mourning of that sense of potential (in their eyes) explains the anger.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    ClippP said:

    Completely O/T, but has anybody here mentioned the Lib Dem spring conference? I has just concluded with an excellent speech by Ed Davey.

    But perhaps this is going to be the subject of the next thread?

    “LibDems”? Vaguely remember them. Did they used to be the ones in the yellow ties? Whatever happened to them?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    biggles said:

    Just been shopping for dinner I'm cooking for Mum and Dad tonight

    Well for Mum. Dad will be eating it though!

    It's all from Michel Roux's The Essence Of French Cooking

    I'm making two starters: Eggs en cocotte with brown shrimp, and Cream of mushroom soup

    For main I'm making Lamb cutlets, Rouen style (that's with a Calvados and chicken liver sauce!) served with fondant potatoes, spinach subrics with mushrooms, and boiled green beans

    I've never made any of it before except mushroom soup and boiled green beans, so I'm a bit nervous

    Look at this this way: they won’t have eaten it before either so they will love it and won’t be judging it against anything else.
    My 2p

    - do as much prep as possible before hand. Chopping, spices in little bowls etc
    - the apps that let you set multiple timers at once in your phone are a godsend.
    - it’s the obvious effort that counts. Go for it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    This is what happened to someone who went against the medical consensus of their time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis

    "Ignaz Philipp Semmelweis (German: [ˈɪɡnaːts ˈzɛml̩vaɪs]; Hungarian: Semmelweis Ignác Fülöp [ˈsɛmmɛlvɛjs ˈiɡnaːts ˈfyløp]; 1 July 1818 – 13 August 1865) was a Hungarian physician and scientist, who was an early pioneer of antiseptic procedures. Described as the "saviour of mothers",[2] he discovered that the incidence of puerperal fever (also known as "childbed fever") could be drastically reduced by requiring hand disinfection in obstetrical clinics. Puerperal fever was common in mid-19th-century hospitals and often fatal. He proposed the practice of washing hands with chlorinated lime solutions in 1847 while working in Vienna General Hospital's First Obstetrical Clinic, where doctors' wards had three times the mortality of midwives' wards.[3] He published a book of his findings in Etiology, Concept and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever.

    Despite various publications of results where hand-washing reduced mortality to below 1%, Semmelweis's observations conflicted with the established scientific and medical opinions of the time and his ideas were rejected by the medical community. He could offer no theoretical explanation for his findings of reduced mortality due to hand-washing, and some doctors were offended at the suggestion that they should wash their hands and mocked him for it. In 1865, the increasingly outspoken Semmelweis allegedly suffered a nervous breakdown and was committed to an asylum by his colleagues. In the asylum he was beaten by the guards. He died 14 days later from a gangrenous wound on his right hand that may have been caused by the beating. His findings earned widespread acceptance only years after his death, when Louis Pasteur confirmed the germ theory, giving Semmelweis' observations a theoretical explanation, and Joseph Lister, acting on Pasteur's research, practised and operated using hygienic methods, with great success."

    Yes but Semmelweis was a doctor, and had experimental evidence to back up his argument.

    He wasn't a conspiracy theorist MP with no Scientific background.
    Time to break out the Sagan quote again:

    But the fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown
    Yep. The fact is that laymen who opine contra to an informed consensus are almost invariably wrong. And it's perfectly rational - indeed advisable - to assume they are wrong without wasting your time looking in any detail into what they're saying. Life's too short as it is. This 'ignore the heretics' best practice is not invalidated by every now and again one of them being proved right. They are the exceptions that prove the rule.
    It’s a variant of “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”

    If Panasonic announce that next years design of battery is 2% better and 2% cheaper…. Pretty much nailed on.

    Fred from the pub announces cold fusion. Not so much.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    This is what happened to someone who went against the medical consensus of their time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis

    "Ignaz Philipp Semmelweis (German: [ˈɪɡnaːts ˈzɛml̩vaɪs]; Hungarian: Semmelweis Ignác Fülöp [ˈsɛmmɛlvɛjs ˈiɡnaːts ˈfyløp]; 1 July 1818 – 13 August 1865) was a Hungarian physician and scientist, who was an early pioneer of antiseptic procedures. Described as the "saviour of mothers",[2] he discovered that the incidence of puerperal fever (also known as "childbed fever") could be drastically reduced by requiring hand disinfection in obstetrical clinics. Puerperal fever was common in mid-19th-century hospitals and often fatal. He proposed the practice of washing hands with chlorinated lime solutions in 1847 while working in Vienna General Hospital's First Obstetrical Clinic, where doctors' wards had three times the mortality of midwives' wards.[3] He published a book of his findings in Etiology, Concept and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever.

    Despite various publications of results where hand-washing reduced mortality to below 1%, Semmelweis's observations conflicted with the established scientific and medical opinions of the time and his ideas were rejected by the medical community. He could offer no theoretical explanation for his findings of reduced mortality due to hand-washing, and some doctors were offended at the suggestion that they should wash their hands and mocked him for it. In 1865, the increasingly outspoken Semmelweis allegedly suffered a nervous breakdown and was committed to an asylum by his colleagues. In the asylum he was beaten by the guards. He died 14 days later from a gangrenous wound on his right hand that may have been caused by the beating. His findings earned widespread acceptance only years after his death, when Louis Pasteur confirmed the germ theory, giving Semmelweis' observations a theoretical explanation, and Joseph Lister, acting on Pasteur's research, practised and operated using hygienic methods, with great success."

    Yes but Semmelweis was a doctor, and had experimental evidence to back up his argument.

    He wasn't a conspiracy theorist MP with no Scientific background.
    Time to break out the Sagan quote again:

    But the fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown
    It's a genuine problem. Occasionally the academic consensus is wrong, but usually it isn't and some of the unorthodox opinions that people propagate can be very harmful. It's reasonable to expect people to persuade academic opinion before they are taken seriously by the world at large.(Unless academic opinion is itself viewed as a conspiracy to conceal the truth, in which case we're doomed anyway.)

    PS Who'd have thought Sagan would have been so accurate in his assessment of Boris Johnson? When Sagan died, Johnson was nothing more than a Tory candidate doing his time in hopeless Labour-held seats,

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    biggles said:

    Just been shopping for dinner I'm cooking for Mum and Dad tonight

    Well for Mum. Dad will be eating it though!

    It's all from Michel Roux's The Essence Of French Cooking

    I'm making two starters: Eggs en cocotte with brown shrimp, and Cream of mushroom soup

    For main I'm making Lamb cutlets, Rouen style (that's with a Calvados and chicken liver sauce!) served with fondant potatoes, spinach subrics with mushrooms, and boiled green beans

    I've never made any of it before except mushroom soup and boiled green beans, so I'm a bit nervous

    Look at this this way: they won’t have eaten it before either so they will love it and won’t be judging it against anything else.
    My 2p

    - do as much prep as possible before hand. Chopping, spices in little bowls etc
    - the apps that let you set multiple timers at once in your phone are a godsend.
    - it’s the obvious effort that counts. Go for it.
    All good advice. Best added to with “make sure your Dad washes up”.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nice and early, if off topic (or perhaps, on topic, different country...), the Sunday Rawnsley:

    There will be a lot at stake at what is expected to be a marathon [Johnson privileges ctte] inquisition. The bereaved families of Covid casualties and everyone else outraged by this scandal have had a long wait for the moment when Mr Johnson is finally held to official account for the deceptions he deployed to try to cover up Partygate. A guilty verdict from the committee will resonate around the world because it is highly likely to lead to his eviction from the Commons.

    ...this is an interrogation the accused has been dreading. We know this because he has hired expensive lawyers, at a chunky cost to the taxpayer, to advise him on how to save his skin. We also know this because of the desperate efforts made by him and his gang to try to suppress and discredit investigation of his misconduct.

    Everyone everywhere knows that law-breaking was rampant in Downing Street. The committee’s job is to judge whether his denials were the result of an innocent misapprehension about the lockdown-busting that went on in Number 10 or whether he told deliberate lies to MPs.

    [The interim report] concluded that it would have been “obvious” to Mr Johnson that the law was being flouted inside Number 10, especially when he himself was present at rule-busting parties.

    “The committee will really have to be on the top of its game,” says one privy counsellor.

    So Wednesday is going to be a big day. We may be witnesses to the beginning of the end of Boris Johnson’s parliamentary career and his lie-strewn odyssey through British political life. That’s huge. Even more crucially, the Commons has an opportunity that it must seize to protect itself and us from mendacious government. It is a basic premise of our democracy that the executive is held to account by parliament. That foundation is destroyed if ministers think they can get away with deliberately misleading MPs.

    This is why it is so essential that the penalties for lying to parliament must be steep and especially severe when the perpetrator has lied, and on a grave issue, from the highest office in the land. It is not just the fate of a disgraced prime minister that is at stake. It is the credibility of parliament, the trustworthiness of our political culture and the health of our democracy.

    If, as we expect, the evidence is damning and the condemnation of the committee severe, then surely Johnson is toast? On a free vote, and making the reasonable assumption that virtually all of the opposition MPs vote to sanction him, it's only going to take a small fraction of the Tories to do likewise. Nothing the Rees-Moggs and Dorries of this world can do to save him.
    I fear it’ll be ‘greased piglet’ time again!

    A disappointing thought for a pleasant Mothering Sunday morning.
    That would require the vast majority of the Parliamentary Conservative Party, most of whom fought very hard to shove him out the door of Number 10 last year, to go easy on him.

    The Tories only have four of the fourteen seats on the Standards Committee, so they can neither block an adverse finding nor the recommendation of a severe punishment; and it will take less than a tenth of Tory MPs to join with the Opposition to vote to accept the Committee's recommendations in the House. I think Johnson has probably had it.
    More than one MP who stabbed Boris has been deselected by their associations - that may focus some minds.
    Stabbed Boris?

    He's not Julius Caesar.
    Seems not a million miles from his worldview, though.
    … Why, man, he doth bestride the narrow world
    Like a Colossus, and we petty men
    Walk under his huge legs and peep about
    To find ourselves dishonorable graves...


  • TresTres Posts: 2,163
    Lord Balniel, MP for Hertford from 1955-1974 has passed away, meaning all MPs elected at the 1955 GE are now brown bread.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    This is what happened to someone who went against the medical consensus of their time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis

    "Ignaz Philipp Semmelweis (German: [ˈɪɡnaːts ˈzɛml̩vaɪs]; Hungarian: Semmelweis Ignác Fülöp [ˈsɛmmɛlvɛjs ˈiɡnaːts ˈfyløp]; 1 July 1818 – 13 August 1865) was a Hungarian physician and scientist, who was an early pioneer of antiseptic procedures. Described as the "saviour of mothers",[2] he discovered that the incidence of puerperal fever (also known as "childbed fever") could be drastically reduced by requiring hand disinfection in obstetrical clinics. Puerperal fever was common in mid-19th-century hospitals and often fatal. He proposed the practice of washing hands with chlorinated lime solutions in 1847 while working in Vienna General Hospital's First Obstetrical Clinic, where doctors' wards had three times the mortality of midwives' wards.[3] He published a book of his findings in Etiology, Concept and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever.

    Despite various publications of results where hand-washing reduced mortality to below 1%, Semmelweis's observations conflicted with the established scientific and medical opinions of the time and his ideas were rejected by the medical community. He could offer no theoretical explanation for his findings of reduced mortality due to hand-washing, and some doctors were offended at the suggestion that they should wash their hands and mocked him for it. In 1865, the increasingly outspoken Semmelweis allegedly suffered a nervous breakdown and was committed to an asylum by his colleagues. In the asylum he was beaten by the guards. He died 14 days later from a gangrenous wound on his right hand that may have been caused by the beating. His findings earned widespread acceptance only years after his death, when Louis Pasteur confirmed the germ theory, giving Semmelweis' observations a theoretical explanation, and Joseph Lister, acting on Pasteur's research, practised and operated using hygienic methods, with great success."

    Yes but Semmelweis was a doctor, and had experimental evidence to back up his argument.

    He wasn't a conspiracy theorist MP with no Scientific background.
    The shocking thing is that Bridgen has a scientific undergraduate degree of sorts. I’m guessing he just found the anti-vax grift got him more attention than his run of the mill bullshit.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Cracking FA Cup quarter final game on ITV right now. Final 10 mins and it could go either way
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    I'm assuming that with all this shit associated with the SNP, the Alba Party must be surging in the polls.

    Doubt it - them - and their leader - are frequently seen as less popular than The Tories in Scotland. I suspect of any the SNP have lost a lot will have swung into "undecided" and some returned to Labour - it will be quite a challenge for the new SNP leader to rebuild the mass of contradictions that was the SNP coalition of voters....
    don't bet on it, recently in NE Aberdeen they were over 6% which is a list seat
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    ClippP said:

    Completely O/T, but has anybody here mentioned the Lib Dem spring conference? I has just concluded with an excellent speech by Ed Davey.

    But perhaps this is going to be the subject of the next thread?

    Are you sure that it's not a figment of your imagination?
  • ClippP said:

    Completely O/T, but has anybody here mentioned the Lib Dem spring conference? I has just concluded with an excellent speech by Ed Davey.

    But perhaps this is going to be the subject of the next thread?

    Who ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited March 2023

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    This is what happened to someone who went against the medical consensus of their time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis

    "Ignaz Philipp Semmelweis (German: [ˈɪɡnaːts ˈzɛml̩vaɪs]; Hungarian: Semmelweis Ignác Fülöp [ˈsɛmmɛlvɛjs ˈiɡnaːts ˈfyløp]; 1 July 1818 – 13 August 1865) was a Hungarian physician and scientist, who was an early pioneer of antiseptic procedures. Described as the "saviour of mothers",[2] he discovered that the incidence of puerperal fever (also known as "childbed fever") could be drastically reduced by requiring hand disinfection in obstetrical clinics. Puerperal fever was common in mid-19th-century hospitals and often fatal. He proposed the practice of washing hands with chlorinated lime solutions in 1847 while working in Vienna General Hospital's First Obstetrical Clinic, where doctors' wards had three times the mortality of midwives' wards.[3] He published a book of his findings in Etiology, Concept and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever.

    Despite various publications of results where hand-washing reduced mortality to below 1%, Semmelweis's observations conflicted with the established scientific and medical opinions of the time and his ideas were rejected by the medical community. He could offer no theoretical explanation for his findings of reduced mortality due to hand-washing, and some doctors were offended at the suggestion that they should wash their hands and mocked him for it. In 1865, the increasingly outspoken Semmelweis allegedly suffered a nervous breakdown and was committed to an asylum by his colleagues. In the asylum he was beaten by the guards. He died 14 days later from a gangrenous wound on his right hand that may have been caused by the beating. His findings earned widespread acceptance only years after his death, when Louis Pasteur confirmed the germ theory, giving Semmelweis' observations a theoretical explanation, and Joseph Lister, acting on Pasteur's research, practised and operated using hygienic methods, with great success."

    Yes but Semmelweis was a doctor, and had experimental evidence to back up his argument.

    He wasn't a conspiracy theorist MP with no Scientific background.
    Time to break out the Sagan quote again:

    But the fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown
    Yep. The fact is that laymen who opine contra to an informed consensus are almost invariably wrong. And it's perfectly rational - indeed advisable - to assume they are wrong without wasting your time looking in any detail into what they're saying. Life's too short as it is. This 'ignore the heretics' best practice is not invalidated by every now and again one of them being proved right. They are the exceptions that prove the rule.
    It’s a variant of “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”

    If Panasonic announce that next years design of battery is 2% better and 2% cheaper…. Pretty much nailed on.

    Fred from the pub announces cold fusion. Not so much.
    Exactly. Unless of course Fred has built a justified reputation over the years (down the pub) in the area of cold fusion and never offers his views on anything else, even after he's had a few, in which case when he opines on it you'd be well advised to listen carefully if you're lucky enough to be in earshot. In fact the whole pub should. "You could have heard a pin drop in the snug as Fred talked about the future of nuclear power."

    But this doesn't violate my Rule - since Fred is not then a layman. In reality people who spout uninformed blather always do so on a wide variety of subjects, not just the one. In fact this is another Rule right there.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    ClippP said:

    Completely O/T, but has anybody here mentioned the Lib Dem spring conference? I has just concluded with an excellent speech by Ed Davey.

    But perhaps this is going to be the subject of the next thread?

    It can be seen or read here:

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/news/adlib-articles/ed-speech-spring-2023#c33026

    I like Davey, and will be voting Lib Dem, but apart from the Tory bashing the speech could have been given by Sunak or Starmer. It is going to be crowded in the centre at the next GE.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    ydoethur said:

    ClippP said:

    Completely O/T, but has anybody here mentioned the Lib Dem spring conference? I has just concluded with an excellent speech by Ed Davey.

    But perhaps this is going to be the subject of the next thread?

    Are you sure that it's not a figment of your imagination?
    Believing in the existence of the Lib Dems is like believing in the existence of Australia.

    A country whose national animal is an egg laying mammal with a ducks beak. Yeah, riiiiiight.
    Actually I was thinking of this 'excellent speech by Ed Davey.'

    Always liked the man, but he's no Cicero.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,129
    edited March 2023

    biggles said:

    Just been shopping for dinner I'm cooking for Mum and Dad tonight

    Well for Mum. Dad will be eating it though!

    It's all from Michel Roux's The Essence Of French Cooking

    I'm making two starters: Eggs en cocotte with brown shrimp, and Cream of mushroom soup

    For main I'm making Lamb cutlets, Rouen style (that's with a Calvados and chicken liver sauce!) served with fondant potatoes, spinach subrics with mushrooms, and boiled green beans

    I've never made any of it before except mushroom soup and boiled green beans, so I'm a bit nervous

    Look at this this way: they won’t have eaten it before either so they will love it and won’t be judging it against anything else.
    My 2p

    - do as much prep as possible before hand. Chopping, spices in little bowls etc
    - the apps that let you set multiple timers at once in your phone are a godsend.
    - it’s the obvious effort that counts. Go for it.
    I've given myself plenty of time

    I'm going over there at half three and we're eating at half six, or a bit later if I'm slow!

    At half three I'll still have time to pop down to Waitrose if my Mum doesn't have all the things I thought she would

    I can make the soup, all but the last stage of the sauce, the spinach subrics (I haven't yet learnt what that means but it seems to be very creamy) and the potato fondant, in advance

    The eggs take five minutes to bake, the cutlets take five minutes to fry

    I'm feeling less nervous

    But I do really want my spinach subrics to stand up, even though they'll taste the same and my parents won't care if they don't
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    WillG said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany

    "Concentration camps"? As far as I'm aware there is no suggestion that people will be imprisoned so that can only be a 1930s-esque confabulation on your part.
    There is a subset of left wingers that are intent on minimizing what happened in the Holocaust by using it as a comparison to everything they dislike.
    I think you'd find that most people who are intent on minimising what happened in the Holocaust are on the far right. Unless you think people like David Irving and his neo-Nazi fellow travellers are a subset of the left.
    People may minimise for different reasons I suppose - those who support the Nazis and want to pretend it didn't happen or wasn't as bad as it was, and those who are just lazy in comparing other things to it.
    It would have been more accurate to describe it as the language of 1930s Britain:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/19/gary-lineker-stop-the-boats-does-echo-language-of-30s-but-in-britain?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    That's a decent way out of all this - "the language of the 1930s"

    An allusion to the rise of fascism without being too nazi specific.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,280
    The Sunday Times is worth buying just to read Matthew Syed's column IMO. The rest of it seems to be becoming more and more tabloid-y.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    kinabalu said:

    In reality people who spout uninformed blather always do so on a wide variety of subjects, not just the one.

    Several posters (or the same poster with multiple logins) say Hi...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    ClippP said:

    Completely O/T, but has anybody here mentioned the Lib Dem spring conference? I has just concluded with an excellent speech by Ed Davey.

    But perhaps this is going to be the subject of the next thread?

    Do the LibDems make good springs?
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 926

    ClippP said:

    Completely O/T, but has anybody here mentioned the Lib Dem spring conference? I has just concluded with an excellent speech by Ed Davey.

    But perhaps this is going to be the subject of the next thread?

    Do the LibDems make good springs?
    I don't think they've had much of a polling bounce, so I guess not...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Foxy said:

    ClippP said:

    Completely O/T, but has anybody here mentioned the Lib Dem spring conference? I has just concluded with an excellent speech by Ed Davey.

    But perhaps this is going to be the subject of the next thread?

    It can be seen or read here:

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/news/adlib-articles/ed-speech-spring-2023#c33026

    I like Davey, and will be voting Lib Dem, but apart from the Tory bashing the speech could have been given by Sunak or Starmer. It is going to be crowded in the centre at the next GE.
    It really is. The offer from all is managed decline. Excellent news since the alternative is the steeper unruly variety.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046

    Just been shopping for dinner I'm cooking for Mum and Dad tonight

    Well for Mum. Dad will be eating it though!

    It's all from Michel Roux's The Essence Of French Cooking

    I'm making two starters: Eggs en cocotte with brown shrimp, and Cream of mushroom soup

    For main I'm making Lamb cutlets, Rouen style (that's with a Calvados and chicken liver sauce!) served with fondant potatoes, spinach subrics with mushrooms, and boiled green beans

    I've never made any of it before except mushroom soup and boiled green beans, so I'm a bit nervous

    Sounds delicious, though I am disappointed about the lack of tomatoes.
  • biggles said:

    biggles said:

    Just been shopping for dinner I'm cooking for Mum and Dad tonight

    Well for Mum. Dad will be eating it though!

    It's all from Michel Roux's The Essence Of French Cooking

    I'm making two starters: Eggs en cocotte with brown shrimp, and Cream of mushroom soup

    For main I'm making Lamb cutlets, Rouen style (that's with a Calvados and chicken liver sauce!) served with fondant potatoes, spinach subrics with mushrooms, and boiled green beans

    I've never made any of it before except mushroom soup and boiled green beans, so I'm a bit nervous

    Look at this this way: they won’t have eaten it before either so they will love it and won’t be judging it against anything else.
    My 2p

    - do as much prep as possible before hand. Chopping, spices in little bowls etc
    - the apps that let you set multiple timers at once in your phone are a godsend.
    - it’s the obvious effort that counts. Go for it.
    All good advice. Best added to with “make sure your Dad washes up”.
    I've NEVER seen my Dad wash up

    To be fair to him, his excuse of being a surgeon who can't afford to get cuts in his delicate hands, was a fair one

    But he's retired from surgery now, and he stills pretends he doesn't know where the dishwasher is ("She's standing next to me")
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Foxy said:

    ClippP said:

    Completely O/T, but has anybody here mentioned the Lib Dem spring conference? I has just concluded with an excellent speech by Ed Davey.

    But perhaps this is going to be the subject of the next thread?

    It can be seen or read here:

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/news/adlib-articles/ed-speech-spring-2023#c33026

    I like Davey, and will be voting Lib Dem, but apart from the Tory bashing the speech could have been given by Sunak or Starmer. It is going to be crowded in the centre at the next GE.
    Excellent, I like having multiple choices.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620

    biggles said:

    Just been shopping for dinner I'm cooking for Mum and Dad tonight

    Well for Mum. Dad will be eating it though!

    It's all from Michel Roux's The Essence Of French Cooking

    I'm making two starters: Eggs en cocotte with brown shrimp, and Cream of mushroom soup

    For main I'm making Lamb cutlets, Rouen style (that's with a Calvados and chicken liver sauce!) served with fondant potatoes, spinach subrics with mushrooms, and boiled green beans

    I've never made any of it before except mushroom soup and boiled green beans, so I'm a bit nervous

    Look at this this way: they won’t have eaten it before either so they will love it and won’t be judging it against anything else.
    My 2p

    - do as much prep as possible before hand. Chopping, spices in little bowls etc
    - the apps that let you set multiple timers at once in your phone are a godsend.
    - it’s the obvious effort that counts. Go for it.
    I've given myself plenty of time

    I'm going over there at half three and we're eating at half six, or a bit later if I'm slow!

    At half three I'll still have time to pop down to Waitrose if my Mum doesn't have all the things I thought she would

    I can make the soup, all but the last stage of the sauce, the spinach subrics (I haven't yet learnt what that means but it seems to be very creamy) and the potato fondant, in advance

    The eggs take five minutes to bake, the cutlets take five minutes to fry

    I'm feeling less nervous

    But I do really want my spinach subrics to stand up, even though they'll taste the same and my parents won't care if they don't
    More power to you for trying. Go for it, and the very best of luck!
  • biggles said:

    Just been shopping for dinner I'm cooking for Mum and Dad tonight

    Well for Mum. Dad will be eating it though!

    It's all from Michel Roux's The Essence Of French Cooking

    I'm making two starters: Eggs en cocotte with brown shrimp, and Cream of mushroom soup

    For main I'm making Lamb cutlets, Rouen style (that's with a Calvados and chicken liver sauce!) served with fondant potatoes, spinach subrics with mushrooms, and boiled green beans

    I've never made any of it before except mushroom soup and boiled green beans, so I'm a bit nervous

    Look at this this way: they won’t have eaten it before either so they will love it and won’t be judging it against anything else.
    My 2p

    - do as much prep as possible before hand. Chopping, spices in little bowls etc
    - the apps that let you set multiple timers at once in your phone are a godsend.
    - it’s the obvious effort that counts. Go for it.
    I've given myself plenty of time

    I'm going over there at half three and we're eating at half six, or a bit later if I'm slow!

    At half three I'll still have time to pop down to Waitrose if my Mum doesn't have all the things I thought she would

    I can make the soup, all but the last stage of the sauce, the spinach subrics (I haven't yet learnt what that means but it seems to be very creamy) and the potato fondant, in advance

    The eggs take five minutes to bake, the cutlets take five minutes to fry

    I'm feeling less nervous

    But I do really want my spinach subrics to stand up, even though they'll taste the same and my parents won't care if they don't
    More power to you for trying. Go for it, and the very best of luck!
    I hope someone will encourage me to post pics later
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    edited March 2023

    biggles said:

    biggles said:

    Just been shopping for dinner I'm cooking for Mum and Dad tonight

    Well for Mum. Dad will be eating it though!

    It's all from Michel Roux's The Essence Of French Cooking

    I'm making two starters: Eggs en cocotte with brown shrimp, and Cream of mushroom soup

    For main I'm making Lamb cutlets, Rouen style (that's with a Calvados and chicken liver sauce!) served with fondant potatoes, spinach subrics with mushrooms, and boiled green beans

    I've never made any of it before except mushroom soup and boiled green beans, so I'm a bit nervous

    Look at this this way: they won’t have eaten it before either so they will love it and won’t be judging it against anything else.
    My 2p

    - do as much prep as possible before hand. Chopping, spices in little bowls etc
    - the apps that let you set multiple timers at once in your phone are a godsend.
    - it’s the obvious effort that counts. Go for it.
    All good advice. Best added to with “make sure your Dad washes up”.
    I've NEVER seen my Dad wash up

    To be fair to him, his excuse of being a surgeon who can't afford to get cuts in his delicate hands, was a fair one

    But he's retired from surgery now, and he stills pretends he doesn't know where the dishwasher is ("She's standing next to me")
    Why would you cut your hands washing up ?
    As excuses go that’s pretty feeble.

    Good luck with the culinary adventure.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,995
    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    WillG said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany

    "Concentration camps"? As far as I'm aware there is no suggestion that people will be imprisoned so that can only be a 1930s-esque confabulation on your part.
    There is a subset of left wingers that are intent on minimizing what happened in the Holocaust by using it as a comparison to everything they dislike.
    I think you'd find that most people who are intent on minimising what happened in the Holocaust are on the far right. Unless you think people like David Irving and his neo-Nazi fellow travellers are a subset of the left.
    People may minimise for different reasons I suppose - those who support the Nazis and want to pretend it didn't happen or wasn't as bad as it was, and those who are just lazy in comparing other things to it.
    It would have been more accurate to describe it as the language of 1930s Britain:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/19/gary-lineker-stop-the-boats-does-echo-language-of-30s-but-in-britain?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    That's a decent way out of all this - "the language of the 1930s"

    An allusion to the rise of fascism without being too nazi specific.
    "Jews were “the most lecherous breed in existence”, wrote Joseph Banister in his antisemitic tract England Under the Jews, and would run the sex trade."

    I haven't heard anything close to this in current rhetoric. Like I said, it is all anti-Semitism. Playing down the past suffering of the Jews to score cheap political points.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    This is what happened to someone who went against the medical consensus of their time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis

    "Ignaz Philipp Semmelweis (German: [ˈɪɡnaːts ˈzɛml̩vaɪs]; Hungarian: Semmelweis Ignác Fülöp [ˈsɛmmɛlvɛjs ˈiɡnaːts ˈfyløp]; 1 July 1818 – 13 August 1865) was a Hungarian physician and scientist, who was an early pioneer of antiseptic procedures. Described as the "saviour of mothers",[2] he discovered that the incidence of puerperal fever (also known as "childbed fever") could be drastically reduced by requiring hand disinfection in obstetrical clinics. Puerperal fever was common in mid-19th-century hospitals and often fatal. He proposed the practice of washing hands with chlorinated lime solutions in 1847 while working in Vienna General Hospital's First Obstetrical Clinic, where doctors' wards had three times the mortality of midwives' wards.[3] He published a book of his findings in Etiology, Concept and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever.

    Despite various publications of results where hand-washing reduced mortality to below 1%, Semmelweis's observations conflicted with the established scientific and medical opinions of the time and his ideas were rejected by the medical community. He could offer no theoretical explanation for his findings of reduced mortality due to hand-washing, and some doctors were offended at the suggestion that they should wash their hands and mocked him for it. In 1865, the increasingly outspoken Semmelweis allegedly suffered a nervous breakdown and was committed to an asylum by his colleagues. In the asylum he was beaten by the guards. He died 14 days later from a gangrenous wound on his right hand that may have been caused by the beating. His findings earned widespread acceptance only years after his death, when Louis Pasteur confirmed the germ theory, giving Semmelweis' observations a theoretical explanation, and Joseph Lister, acting on Pasteur's research, practised and operated using hygienic methods, with great success."

    Yes but Semmelweis was a doctor, and had experimental evidence to back up his argument.

    He wasn't a conspiracy theorist MP with no Scientific background.
    Time to break out the Sagan quote again:

    But the fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown
    Yep. The fact is that laymen who opine contra to an informed consensus are almost invariably wrong. And it's perfectly rational - indeed advisable - to assume they are wrong without wasting your time looking in any detail into what they're saying. Life's too short as it is. This 'ignore the heretics' best practice is not invalidated by every now and again one of them being proved right. They are the exceptions that prove the rule.
    It’s a variant of “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”

    If Panasonic announce that next years design of battery is 2% better and 2% cheaper…. Pretty much nailed on.

    Fred from the pub announces cold fusion. Not so much.
    Exactly. Unless of course Fred has built a justified reputation over the years (down the pub) in the area of cold fusion and never offers his views on anything else, even after he's had a few, in which case when he opines on it you'd be well advised to listen carefully if you're lucky enough to be in earshot. In fact the whole pub should. "You could have heard a pin drop in the snug as Fred talked about the future of nuclear power."

    But this doesn't violate my Rule - since Fred is not then a layman. In reality people who spout uninformed blather always do so on a wide variety of subjects, not just the one. In fact this is another Rule right there.
    More, what has he done? You’d be surprised by what some people can do in terms of fusion in the shed. There’s a select club who’ve actually got neutrons out of a Farnsworth.

    Kinda tempted to go for it when I have the new workshop setup.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,151
    Alastair Meeks
    @AlastairMeeks
    Electoral Calculus seem overnight to have dramatically updated the model underlying their Scottish seat predictor, against the SNP.

    1/2

    Yesterday I noted that Lab 30 SNP 40 would net Labour 10 more seats in Scotland. Today, Electoral Calculus make that 19. At Lab 35 SNP 35, Labour go from 26 more to 31 more. At Lab 40 SNP 30, the SNP now are predicted to get 0.

    2/2
  • NEW THREAD

  • biggles said:

    Just been shopping for dinner I'm cooking for Mum and Dad tonight

    Well for Mum. Dad will be eating it though!

    It's all from Michel Roux's The Essence Of French Cooking

    I'm making two starters: Eggs en cocotte with brown shrimp, and Cream of mushroom soup

    For main I'm making Lamb cutlets, Rouen style (that's with a Calvados and chicken liver sauce!) served with fondant potatoes, spinach subrics with mushrooms, and boiled green beans

    I've never made any of it before except mushroom soup and boiled green beans, so I'm a bit nervous

    Look at this this way: they won’t have eaten it before either so they will love it and won’t be judging it against anything else.
    My 2p

    - do as much prep as possible before hand. Chopping, spices in little bowls etc
    - the apps that let you set multiple timers at once in your phone are a godsend.
    - it’s the obvious effort that counts. Go for it.
    I've given myself plenty of time

    I'm going over there at half three and we're eating at half six, or a bit later if I'm slow!

    At half three I'll still have time to pop down to Waitrose if my Mum doesn't have all the things I thought she would

    I can make the soup, all but the last stage of the sauce, the spinach subrics (I haven't yet learnt what that means but it seems to be very creamy) and the potato fondant, in advance

    The eggs take five minutes to bake, the cutlets take five minutes to fry

    I'm feeling less nervous

    But I do really want my spinach subrics to stand up, even though they'll taste the same and my parents won't care if they don't
    More power to you for trying. Go for it, and the very best of luck!
    I hope someone will encourage me to post pics later
    Pics? A small portion for each of our most prestigious posters is definitely required.
  • Nigelb said:

    biggles said:

    biggles said:

    Just been shopping for dinner I'm cooking for Mum and Dad tonight

    Well for Mum. Dad will be eating it though!

    It's all from Michel Roux's The Essence Of French Cooking

    I'm making two starters: Eggs en cocotte with brown shrimp, and Cream of mushroom soup

    For main I'm making Lamb cutlets, Rouen style (that's with a Calvados and chicken liver sauce!) served with fondant potatoes, spinach subrics with mushrooms, and boiled green beans

    I've never made any of it before except mushroom soup and boiled green beans, so I'm a bit nervous

    Look at this this way: they won’t have eaten it before either so they will love it and won’t be judging it against anything else.
    My 2p

    - do as much prep as possible before hand. Chopping, spices in little bowls etc
    - the apps that let you set multiple timers at once in your phone are a godsend.
    - it’s the obvious effort that counts. Go for it.
    All good advice. Best added to with “make sure your Dad washes up”.
    I've NEVER seen my Dad wash up

    To be fair to him, his excuse of being a surgeon who can't afford to get cuts in his delicate hands, was a fair one

    But he's retired from surgery now, and he stills pretends he doesn't know where the dishwasher is ("She's standing next to me")
    Why would you cut your hands washing up ?
    As excuses go that’s pretty feeble.

    Good luck with the culinary adventure.
    Thanks!

    I've cut my hands on sharp knives hidden in sinks before

    I think the real "excuse" for my Dad is that he used his hands to try to fix people's
    lower spines (and knees, hips, etc., but specialised in lower spine), and didn't want to risk injuring his hands any other way, like DIY or housework

    And he earnt enough from that to give the rest of us good enough lives that we ought to wash up for him. And if he did wash up, we all know that everything would have to go in the dishwasher because he'd do a shit job
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    WillG said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    WillG said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany

    "Concentration camps"? As far as I'm aware there is no suggestion that people will be imprisoned so that can only be a 1930s-esque confabulation on your part.
    There is a subset of left wingers that are intent on minimizing what happened in the Holocaust by using it as a comparison to everything they dislike.
    I think you'd find that most people who are intent on minimising what happened in the Holocaust are on the far right. Unless you think people like David Irving and his neo-Nazi fellow travellers are a subset of the left.
    People may minimise for different reasons I suppose - those who support the Nazis and want to pretend it didn't happen or wasn't as bad as it was, and those who are just lazy in comparing other things to it.
    It would have been more accurate to describe it as the language of 1930s Britain:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/19/gary-lineker-stop-the-boats-does-echo-language-of-30s-but-in-britain?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    That's a decent way out of all this - "the language of the 1930s"

    An allusion to the rise of fascism without being too nazi specific.
    "Jews were “the most lecherous breed in existence”, wrote Joseph Banister in his antisemitic tract England Under the Jews, and would run the sex trade."

    I haven't heard anything close to this in current rhetoric. Like I said, it is all anti-Semitism. Playing down the past suffering of the Jews to score cheap political points.
    I don't think things have to get to that level before you can reasonably invoke 1930s overtones.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 583
    ClippP said:

    Completely O/T, but has anybody here mentioned the Lib Dem spring conference? I has just concluded with an excellent speech by Ed Davey.

    But perhaps this is going to be the subject of the next thread?

    Who?
This discussion has been closed.