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Super Tuesday – politicalbetting.com

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  • glwglw Posts: 9,548
    TOPPING said:

    So amidst global uncertainty and turmoil with the nuclear rhetoric of Russia ramping up ever more, the UK government is testing a siren early warning system for "situations like wildfire or flooding."

    The system has been in development for years*, and there have been network and regional tests in previous years. This is the first national test now that the systems is in operation. I doubt it has anything to do with current events.

    * "Years" isn't due to any government dithering, but it has taken a while for enough phones to have the software support and for network coverage for 4G and 5G to be sufficiently widespeard to reach the required availability levels.
  • Could Bozza be saved by the Coronation?

    If he gets suspended for two weeks, that would normally by just enough for him be recalled, ie ten sitting days in parliament

    If it just happens to be two weeks including the Coronation then he’d only be suspended for nine days

    Good morning

    Johnson and his legal team are convinced he is innocent

    It is generally accepted he did mislead the house, but has anybody posed the question that the committee fail to find him guilty of deliberately misleading the HOC
    I think they're convinced that nobody can prove he's guilty

    I doubt anyone really believes he's innocent

    Except maybe Mad Nad
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,068

    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nice and early, if off topic (or perhaps, on topic, different country...), the Sunday Rawnsley:

    There will be a lot at stake at what is expected to be a marathon [Johnson privileges ctte] inquisition. The bereaved families of Covid casualties and everyone else outraged by this scandal have had a long wait for the moment when Mr Johnson is finally held to official account for the deceptions he deployed to try to cover up Partygate. A guilty verdict from the committee will resonate around the world because it is highly likely to lead to his eviction from the Commons.

    ...this is an interrogation the accused has been dreading. We know this because he has hired expensive lawyers, at a chunky cost to the taxpayer, to advise him on how to save his skin. We also know this because of the desperate efforts made by him and his gang to try to suppress and discredit investigation of his misconduct.

    Everyone everywhere knows that law-breaking was rampant in Downing Street. The committee’s job is to judge whether his denials were the result of an innocent misapprehension about the lockdown-busting that went on in Number 10 or whether he told deliberate lies to MPs.

    [The interim report] concluded that it would have been “obvious” to Mr Johnson that the law was being flouted inside Number 10, especially when he himself was present at rule-busting parties.

    “The committee will really have to be on the top of its game,” says one privy counsellor.

    So Wednesday is going to be a big day. We may be witnesses to the beginning of the end of Boris Johnson’s parliamentary career and his lie-strewn odyssey through British political life. That’s huge. Even more crucially, the Commons has an opportunity that it must seize to protect itself and us from mendacious government. It is a basic premise of our democracy that the executive is held to account by parliament. That foundation is destroyed if ministers think they can get away with deliberately misleading MPs.

    This is why it is so essential that the penalties for lying to parliament must be steep and especially severe when the perpetrator has lied, and on a grave issue, from the highest office in the land. It is not just the fate of a disgraced prime minister that is at stake. It is the credibility of parliament, the trustworthiness of our political culture and the health of our democracy.

    If, as we expect, the evidence is damning and the condemnation of the committee severe, then surely Johnson is toast? On a free vote, and making the reasonable assumption that virtually all of the opposition MPs vote to sanction him, it's only going to take a small fraction of the Tories to do likewise. Nothing the Rees-Moggs and Dorries of this world can do to save him.
    I'd not be surprised to see an.awful lot of abstentions on the grounds of 'we have concerns over the process but we dont defend his actions'. Trying to accept the technical legal confusion Boris is throwing out but not too much.

    Thatd be pointless though as it wouldn't mollify any MPs or voters who are angry about Boris facing sanction, if that is where it goes.
    Under the circumstances I describe I would expect the majority of Conservative MPs to vote to sanction Johnson. He's yesterday's man, he's unpopular, they know that abstention will be interpreted as support, and in any case I'm quite sure there are more than enough of them who actively despise him to achieve a Commons majority when combined with the massed ranks of the Opposition.

    It's transparently obvious that Johnson is guilty as sin. Unless one of those expensive lawyers so happens to be Bob Massingbird then he's had it. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
    Is there much mileage in the usual ERG suspects standing up to support Boris? I suppose all the other parties could decide to abstain and make it a blue-on-blue fight. But that's no going to happen is it, when the prize is kicking Boris in the balls. So Boris is going to lose the vote. Bigly. There are enough Tories who have always hated him/come round to hating him.

    So why stand up for Boris? Losers rallying around Nadine? What a cause.... Suspect those few who Boris might have had on his supporters list will all be having a wisdom tooth removed. 450+ majority to sanction him.
    Yup.

    There is no way that any opposition party is going to try voting *for* Boris. It’s the kind of silly tactic that would damage them most.

    Even if they abstain - Boris goes down in a vote.

    The idea of a free vote is, I think, the correct one. This time it would be the government whip the *mps* would be hiding behind.

    I agree it will be a massive vote against him - with nearly no votes the other way. Abstentions will be the way the pro Boris types go - nearly all.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    I believe Ms McLaughlin's partner has some form being involved with organisations that have had their finances questioned.

    Well, we can't all have a house in Portugal/France to leg it to when the shit hits the fan, eh?

    Edit: Mike Russell on BBC Scotland just now saying he doesn't want a re-run
    He is an absolute wreck. The president of the party and he is trying to say he had no idea ho wmany members they had and did not need to know. He is another that needs tarred and feathered and run out of town, in his independence horsebox hopefully.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,543

    Could Bozza be saved by the Coronation?

    If he gets suspended for two weeks, that would normally by just enough for him be recalled, ie ten sitting days in parliament

    If it just happens to be two weeks including the Coronation then he’d only be suspended for nine days

    Good morning

    Johnson and his legal team are convinced he is innocent

    It is generally accepted he did mislead the house, but has anybody posed the question that the committee fail to find him guilty of deliberately misleading the HOC
    I could be wrong, and I often am in instances like this, but I can't see Johnson performing well while giving evidence. He is good at the fun stuff. You know giving jolly answers to make his point. That won't go down well in this instance. Also providing written evidence beforehand gives the committee plenty of opportunities to pull it apart.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,302
    pigeon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So amidst global uncertainty and turmoil with the nuclear rhetoric of Russia ramping up ever more, the UK government is testing a siren early warning system for "situations like wildfire or flooding."

    I'm quite sure that this is nothing to do with Russia: it's merely adopting a system already used in a number of other countries. Practically no-one on this tiny island would survive a full scale thermonuclear war, and that's for the best because you wouldn't want to.
    Your regular reminder that Great Britain is by no measures a tiny island, it is the eighth largest island in the world. Not that that changes the thrust of what you say - I just can't let the tiny island comment pass.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,127

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nice and early, if off topic (or perhaps, on topic, different country...), the Sunday Rawnsley:

    There will be a lot at stake at what is expected to be a marathon [Johnson privileges ctte] inquisition. The bereaved families of Covid casualties and everyone else outraged by this scandal have had a long wait for the moment when Mr Johnson is finally held to official account for the deceptions he deployed to try to cover up Partygate. A guilty verdict from the committee will resonate around the world because it is highly likely to lead to his eviction from the Commons.

    ...this is an interrogation the accused has been dreading. We know this because he has hired expensive lawyers, at a chunky cost to the taxpayer, to advise him on how to save his skin. We also know this because of the desperate efforts made by him and his gang to try to suppress and discredit investigation of his misconduct.

    Everyone everywhere knows that law-breaking was rampant in Downing Street. The committee’s job is to judge whether his denials were the result of an innocent misapprehension about the lockdown-busting that went on in Number 10 or whether he told deliberate lies to MPs.

    [The interim report] concluded that it would have been “obvious” to Mr Johnson that the law was being flouted inside Number 10, especially when he himself was present at rule-busting parties.

    “The committee will really have to be on the top of its game,” says one privy counsellor.

    So Wednesday is going to be a big day. We may be witnesses to the beginning of the end of Boris Johnson’s parliamentary career and his lie-strewn odyssey through British political life. That’s huge. Even more crucially, the Commons has an opportunity that it must seize to protect itself and us from mendacious government. It is a basic premise of our democracy that the executive is held to account by parliament. That foundation is destroyed if ministers think they can get away with deliberately misleading MPs.

    This is why it is so essential that the penalties for lying to parliament must be steep and especially severe when the perpetrator has lied, and on a grave issue, from the highest office in the land. It is not just the fate of a disgraced prime minister that is at stake. It is the credibility of parliament, the trustworthiness of our political culture and the health of our democracy.

    If, as we expect, the evidence is damning and the condemnation of the committee severe, then surely Johnson is toast? On a free vote, and making the reasonable assumption that virtually all of the opposition MPs vote to sanction him, it's only going to take a small fraction of the Tories to do likewise. Nothing the Rees-Moggs and Dorries of this world can do to save him.
    I fear it’ll be ‘greased piglet’ time again!

    A disappointing thought for a pleasant Mothering Sunday morning.
    That would require the vast majority of the Parliamentary Conservative Party, most of whom fought very hard to shove him out the door of Number 10 last year, to go easy on him.

    The Tories only have four of the fourteen seats on the Standards Committee, so they can neither block an adverse finding nor the recommendation of a severe punishment; and it will take less than a tenth of Tory MPs to join with the Opposition to vote to accept the Committee's recommendations in the House. I think Johnson has probably had it.
  • Things must be bad, Martin Geissler is giving Mike Russell a right doing on BBC Scotland just now.

    He's sticking to the 'no re-run' line but says Kate Forbes is happy with the process, he needs to persuade Ash Regan. Given that Kate Forbes has been all over the media this morning, and no sign of HY, I'd presume she has the numbers and Yousaf knows he's toast.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800
    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    It has been alleged that Mr Useless has had access to the voting online. It is also noticeable that despite the awe inspiring crash of the Sturgeon/Murrell wagon the odds on his success get ever tighter. It is hard not to conclude that that is being driven by information that should not be in the public domain.

    The question for the SNP is whether this election can be allowed to stand. Given the complete lack of trust in Murrell, the problems with identifying the membership, the suspicions about the use of "phantom" votes based on those who have left or died and no doubt many other allegations to come I would suggest the answer to that question is no. A new, independent chief executive needs to be appointed, an independent body needs to audit and vouch for the ballots sent out and an independent body needs to do the counting. This is Scotland's First Minister we are talking about here.

    Continuity is probably what most Members wanted considering Sturgeon was, I believe, still rated well when she quit. The juicier stuff against that continuity position have come pretty late in the game.

    Dare one of the other candidates try to force a re-run? Even if successful they'd probably face the same outcome as Gerry Malone in the famous Winchester by-election.
    Rubbish , the candidates will do it for sure and Humza will be shown to be the idiot he is. They have just passed the baton to another clown. It has been obvious that it was at best really dodgy since the beginning.
    Surely the party splits if one or more leadership candidates legally challenge the outcome of the election? It's one thing to express concerns, it's another to take the party to court about it. Independence is bigger than the SNP, and if you don't trust the party machine that much - when given the backing HUmza has most of the MSPs do - then how can they still be in it?
    This is guesswork on my part - I don't live up in Scotland - but surely under such circumstances the minority faction in the SNP will stay and fight? They've got the recent examples of both Change UK and the Alba Party, with the former being perhaps the more instructive comparator in this case, to show what happens to politicians who can't reconcile themselves to the behaviour of the faction in control and elect to walk.

    They're perfectly entitled to challenge the election process in court and, even if the Greens back the nomination of Useless as FM rather than abstaining, they still only need a handful of votes to veto him whilst the case is in progress. The advent of Alba Party II is, presumably, still some way distant.
    You would hope there are a few SNP MSP's with some principles who would vote against Humza for FM.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,336
    TOPPING said:

    So amidst global uncertainty and turmoil with the nuclear rhetoric of Russia ramping up ever more, the UK government is testing a siren early warning system for "situations like wildfire or flooding."

    This siren idea is one of the worst ideas the government has ever had. It'll make anxious people ever more anxious.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,068

    Penddu2 said:

    If Trump goes to prison (unlikely as that is) does he still qualify for a secret service protection detail??

    Not so secret. Everyone inside knows it's Big Bubba....
    Its a good question but realistically even if its a prison sentence (which it wont be), practicalities would likely move it down to house arrest.
    {the shade of Pablo Escobar has entered the chat, via internet link from La Catedral}

    Special imprisonment has been a thing down the ages. It wouldn’t be hard to knock up a secure facility on a corner of a military base and dub it a federal clink.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,127
    Cookie said:

    pigeon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So amidst global uncertainty and turmoil with the nuclear rhetoric of Russia ramping up ever more, the UK government is testing a siren early warning system for "situations like wildfire or flooding."

    I'm quite sure that this is nothing to do with Russia: it's merely adopting a system already used in a number of other countries. Practically no-one on this tiny island would survive a full scale thermonuclear war, and that's for the best because you wouldn't want to.
    Your regular reminder that Great Britain is by no measures a tiny island, it is the eighth largest island in the world. Not that that changes the thrust of what you say - I just can't let the tiny island comment pass.
    These things are all relative. Great Britain is less than half the size of France, never mind a whole panoply of larger entities.

    Taken as a whole, Great Britain accounts for approximately 0.14% of the total land area of the Earth.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,042
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,645

    Could Bozza be saved by the Coronation?

    If he gets suspended for two weeks, that would normally by just enough for him be recalled, ie ten sitting days in parliament

    If it just happens to be two weeks including the Coronation then he’d only be suspended for nine days

    Good morning

    Johnson and his legal team are convinced he is innocent

    It is generally accepted he did mislead the house, but has anybody posed the question that the committee fail to find him guilty of deliberately misleading the HOC
    If the committee feel that they can’t come to a judgement re deliberately misleading then they should stress that it wasn’t possible to not that he’s been cleared of that .

    It does seem that his defence is basically I’m stupid and just parroted the lines given to him by his advisors . If he goes after Sue Grey I think that could backfire .

    When the report came out he welcomed it , to now trash it I think would be an own goal .
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,800
    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,958
    Cookie said:

    pigeon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So amidst global uncertainty and turmoil with the nuclear rhetoric of Russia ramping up ever more, the UK government is testing a siren early warning system for "situations like wildfire or flooding."

    I'm quite sure that this is nothing to do with Russia: it's merely adopting a system already used in a number of other countries. Practically no-one on this tiny island would survive a full scale thermonuclear war, and that's for the best because you wouldn't want to.
    Your regular reminder that Great Britain is by no measures a tiny island, it is the eighth largest island in the world. Not that that changes the thrust of what you say - I just can't let the tiny island comment pass.
    All Islands are pretty tiny when compared with the great continental landmasses.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,988

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    And you don't know how many ballot papers were sent out or to whom. How can anyone have any confidence in such a procedure, whoever wins?

    And on the money, remember the Treasurer of the SNP who resigned because Murrell wouldn't show him the books?

    No one could deny that the SNP has been one of the most successful parties in any democracy anywhere in the last 8 years under Nicola or that Murrell has played a major part in the creation and utilisation of a party political machine like no other. But if even Ash Regan can point out that having the leader and the Chief Executive married to each other was questionable it must be pretty obvious.

    The SNP has grown from a protest movement into a party of government in just over a decade. Its not surprising that they are so far behind every other party with internal checks and balances. But the time to sort this out is now.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    On the SNP, if Useless does win how can anyone take it seriously, there's far too many irregularities already and chatter about 30k more ballot being issued than there are members means he's definitely going to win.

    Isn't there a law somewhere about election rigging?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,068
    Cookie said:

    pigeon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So amidst global uncertainty and turmoil with the nuclear rhetoric of Russia ramping up ever more, the UK government is testing a siren early warning system for "situations like wildfire or flooding."

    I'm quite sure that this is nothing to do with Russia: it's merely adopting a system already used in a number of other countries. Practically no-one on this tiny island would survive a full scale thermonuclear war, and that's for the best because you wouldn't want to.
    Your regular reminder that Great Britain is by no measures a tiny island, it is the eighth largest island in the world. Not that that changes the thrust of what you say - I just can't let the tiny island comment pass.
    Unless the nuking takes the form of carpet bombing, most the damage will be through fallout. Which means that a few weeks later, You emerge from the shelter to a strangely undamaged world. Unless you are in a big city or next to a military base.

    Everyone else (90%) will be dead - but outside the actual blast zones it will be more like one of those post apocalyptic tv shows where everyone is gone but the physical world looks relatively untouched.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,127
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,988
    Its remarkable that even Useless thought it was a good idea to give this response backed up against a wall.
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/leadership-candidate-on-snp-s-own-goal/vi-AA18NkA1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=31c43e56907a475d8e4f233ef8c09238&ei=19
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,866
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    And you don't know how many ballot papers were sent out or to whom. How can anyone have any confidence in such a procedure, whoever wins?

    And on the money, remember the Treasurer of the SNP who resigned because Murrell wouldn't show him the books?

    No one could deny that the SNP has been one of the most successful parties in any democracy anywhere in the last 8 years under Nicola or that Murrell has played a major part in the creation and utilisation of a party political machine like no other. But if even Ash Regan can point out that having the leader and the Chief Executive married to each other was questionable it must be pretty obvious.

    The SNP has grown from a protest movement into a party of government in just over a decade. Its not surprising that they are so far behind every other party with internal checks and balances. But the time to sort this out is now.
    It does seem shambolic. Quite surprising that no Chief Executive, or deputy, has thought to sort it out.

    Posted with tongue rather in cheek. No doubt Malc can suggest a reason!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,068
    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    Has anyone got any actual information on that state of Reform - finances etc?

    I think it unlikely they will run candidates everywhere
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,336
    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    I agree although the Tories have a chance at winning roughly the same number of seats as Labour if they have a good next 12 months and election campaign.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,044

    Eabhal said:
    But that is very misleading, as most of the route is just existing tracks that the new trains happen to run on. The real Crossrail is just the bit in the middle.
    Were not £100m's if not £1bn's spent at places like Reading Station to increase track capacity for Crossrail ?
    I'm still trying to figure out how this will work. Reading is being connected to Heathrow 'directly', does that mean all the long distance trains from the west will now go through Heathrow?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,866
    Deleted
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,866
    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    Lib-Lab coalition? Or C and S?
    Back to the days of David Steel!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,907
    MaxPB said:

    On the SNP, if Useless does win how can anyone take it seriously, there's far too many irregularities already and chatter about 30k more ballot being issued than there are members means he's definitely going to win.

    Isn't there a law somewhere about election rigging?

    Certainly wouldn't be allowed if it were a Trade Union.
    But political Parties don't like having to abide by the same standards.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,936
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    I hope so, Malc. Ordinary Scots need to know who these people are, and what they are.
  • RichardrRichardr Posts: 81

    Could Bozza be saved by the Coronation?

    If he gets suspended for two weeks, that would normally by just enough for him be recalled, ie ten sitting days in parliament

    If it just happens to be two weeks including the Coronation then he’d only be suspended for nine days

    Good morning

    Johnson and his legal team are convinced he is innocent

    It is generally accepted he did mislead the house, but has anybody posed the question that the committee fail to find him guilty of deliberately misleading the HOC
    On the other hand, they can't be too convinced, as the Telegraph article includes:

    "His defence will claim that the privileges committee is an “unfair process” to subject Mr Johnson on account of its political nature.

    The Conservative Post - a website for grassroots Tories - has launched an online campaign allowing activists to send the four MPs an automated email calling on them to "protect your integrity by resigning from this committee immediately."

    Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, has also been lobbied to intervene and “encourage” MPs to call off the privileges committee's inquiry."


  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,302
    pigeon said:

    Cookie said:

    pigeon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So amidst global uncertainty and turmoil with the nuclear rhetoric of Russia ramping up ever more, the UK government is testing a siren early warning system for "situations like wildfire or flooding."

    I'm quite sure that this is nothing to do with Russia: it's merely adopting a system already used in a number of other countries. Practically no-one on this tiny island would survive a full scale thermonuclear war, and that's for the best because you wouldn't want to.
    Your regular reminder that Great Britain is by no measures a tiny island, it is the eighth largest island in the world. Not that that changes the thrust of what you say - I just can't let the tiny island comment pass.
    These things are all relative. Great Britain is less than half the size of France, never mind a whole panoply of larger entities.

    Taken as a whole, Great Britain accounts for approximately 0.14% of the total land area of the Earth.
    Well yes, I don't disagree. I just quibble with the 8th biggest x in the world being described as a tiny x.
    "Look at that tiny lion!"
    "But that's the second largest lion in the enclosure!"
    "But compared to the elephants, it's tiny."
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,958

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    Has anyone got any actual information on that state of Reform - finances etc?

    I think it unlikely they will run candidates everywhere
    The structure of Reform UK is quite unusual. They seem only to have the minimum numbers of members required by law, with everyone else being "registered supporters". They've sometimes received substantial financial support from a small number is wealthy individuals.

    So my read on it is that they exist essentially was a shell, a political movement in waiting, that Farage may decide to activate in the run-up to the next GE if he believes that it will be profitable or successful to do so. If he does so decide then I think they would have little trouble in finding the money and candidates to stand in almost every constituency.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,936
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    I believe Ms McLaughlin's partner has some form being involved with organisations that have had their finances questioned.

    Well, we can't all have a house in Portugal/France to leg it to when the shit hits the fan, eh?

    Edit: Mike Russell on BBC Scotland just now saying he doesn't want a re-run
    He is an absolute wreck. The president of the party and he is trying to say he had no idea ho wmany members they had and did not need to know. He is another that needs tarred and feathered and run out of town, in his independence horsebox hopefully.
    It’s very sad how previously decent people like Mike Russell and John Swinney have been captured by the clique. The phrase “I was only following orders “ springs to mind.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,194
    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany




    https://mobile.twitter.com/Sue_Cowley/status/1637193729743241218

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    Has anyone got any actual information on that state of Reform - finances etc?

    I think it unlikely they will run candidates everywhere
    The structure of Reform UK is quite unusual. They seem only to have the minimum numbers of members required by law, with everyone else being "registered supporters". They've sometimes received substantial financial support from a small number is wealthy individuals.

    So my read on it is that they exist essentially was a shell, a political movement in waiting, that Farage may decide to activate in the run-up to the next GE if he believes that it will be profitable or successful to do so. If he does so decide then I think they would have little trouble in finding the money and candidates to stand in almost every constituency.
    And with the same level of success that UKIP had in every general election it fought.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,936
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    And you don't know how many ballot papers were sent out or to whom. How can anyone have any confidence in such a procedure, whoever wins?

    And on the money, remember the Treasurer of the SNP who resigned because Murrell wouldn't show him the books?

    No one could deny that the SNP has been one of the most successful parties in any democracy anywhere in the last 8 years under Nicola or that Murrell has played a major part in the creation and utilisation of a party political machine like no other. But if even Ash Regan can point out that having the leader and the Chief Executive married to each other was questionable it must be pretty obvious.

    The SNP has grown from a protest movement into a party of government in just over a decade. Its not surprising that they are so far behind every other party with internal checks and balances. But the time to sort this out is now.
    They used to have a democratic structure, David. The person responsible for implementing the changes that resulted in decisions being removed from members and branches was Angus Robertson.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    they know the 600K has gone walkies
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    I believe Ms McLaughlin's partner has some form being involved with organisations that have had their finances questioned.

    Well, we can't all have a house in Portugal/France to leg it to when the shit hits the fan, eh?

    Edit: Mike Russell on BBC Scotland just now saying he doesn't want a re-run
    He is an absolute wreck. The president of the party and he is trying to say he had no idea ho wmany members they had and did not need to know. He is another that needs tarred and feathered and run out of town, in his independence horsebox hopefully.
    It’s very sad how previously decent people like Mike Russell and John Swinney have been captured by the clique. The phrase “I was only following orders “ springs to mind.
    Best you can say for them is that they ignored it but still makes them complicit , no way can Swinney or Russel try to claim they were not in possession of all the information or deliberately made sure they were not at very best. They certainly knew what was going on.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,940
    edited March 2023
    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany

    "Concentration camps"? As far as I'm aware there is no suggestion that people will be imprisoned so that can only be a 1930s-esque confabulation on your part.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,430

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    Has anyone got any actual information on that state of Reform - finances etc?

    I think it unlikely they will run candidates everywhere
    The structure of Reform UK is quite unusual. They seem only to have the minimum numbers of members required by law, with everyone else being "registered supporters". They've sometimes received substantial financial support from a small number is wealthy individuals.

    So my read on it is that they exist essentially was a shell, a political movement in waiting, that Farage may decide to activate in the run-up to the next GE if he believes that it will be profitable or successful to do so. If he does so decide then I think they would have little trouble in finding the money and candidates to stand in almost every constituency.
    Latest published accounts.

    https://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Accounts/ST0025221
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    they know the 600K has gone walkies
    Malc, this has all been explained, it's woven through the accounts. Perfectly simple.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    And you don't know how many ballot papers were sent out or to whom. How can anyone have any confidence in such a procedure, whoever wins?

    And on the money, remember the Treasurer of the SNP who resigned because Murrell wouldn't show him the books?

    No one could deny that the SNP has been one of the most successful parties in any democracy anywhere in the last 8 years under Nicola or that Murrell has played a major part in the creation and utilisation of a party political machine like no other. But if even Ash Regan can point out that having the leader and the Chief Executive married to each other was questionable it must be pretty obvious.

    The SNP has grown from a protest movement into a party of government in just over a decade. Its not surprising that they are so far behind every other party with internal checks and balances. But the time to sort this out is now.
    It does seem shambolic. Quite surprising that no Chief Executive, or deputy, has thought to sort it out.

    Posted with tongue rather in cheek. No doubt Malc can suggest a reason!
    Rather obvious they were too busy cooking the books or not filling them in. Everything was run by the Murrells and their handpicked sockpuppets. Be interesting if police manage to get them to show which cliff the 600K dropped off.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,883
    DavidL said:

    It has been alleged that Mr Useless has had access to the voting online. It is also noticeable that despite the awe inspiring crash of the Sturgeon/Murrell wagon the odds on his success get ever tighter. It is hard not to conclude that that is being driven by information that should not be in the public domain.

    The question for the SNP is whether this election can be allowed to stand. Given the complete lack of trust in Murrell, the problems with identifying the membership, the suspicions about the use of "phantom" votes based on those who have left or died and no doubt many other allegations to come I would suggest the answer to that question is no. A new, independent chief executive needs to be appointed, an independent body needs to audit and vouch for the ballots sent out and an independent body needs to do the counting. This is Scotland's First Minister we are talking about here.

    The outside company that has overseen SNP internal elections since 2013 (and with whom no one seemed to have a problem hitherto) is called Mi-Voice, perhaps you should address your allegations of malfeasance directly at them? They’ve also apparently been involve with voting situations with HMG so you should really get on it.

    I don’t think there have been any recent cases of accusing companies involved in conducting elections of corruption going badly?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,951

    Could Bozza be saved by the Coronation?

    If he gets suspended for two weeks, that would normally by just enough for him be recalled, ie ten sitting days in parliament

    If it just happens to be two weeks including the Coronation then he’d only be suspended for nine days

    Good morning

    Johnson and his legal team are convinced he is innocent

    It is generally accepted he did mislead the house, but has anybody posed the question that the committee fail to find him guilty of deliberately misleading the HOC
    Andy_JS said:

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    I agree although the Tories have a chance at winning roughly the same number of seats as Labour if they have a good next 12 months and election campaign.
    I have been absent for a week and wow! Boris and the Tories smashing it out of the park on PB. Harold Wilson was right.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    And you don't know how many ballot papers were sent out or to whom. How can anyone have any confidence in such a procedure, whoever wins?

    And on the money, remember the Treasurer of the SNP who resigned because Murrell wouldn't show him the books?

    No one could deny that the SNP has been one of the most successful parties in any democracy anywhere in the last 8 years under Nicola or that Murrell has played a major part in the creation and utilisation of a party political machine like no other. But if even Ash Regan can point out that having the leader and the Chief Executive married to each other was questionable it must be pretty obvious.

    The SNP has grown from a protest movement into a party of government in just over a decade. Its not surprising that they are so far behind every other party with internal checks and balances. But the time to sort this out is now.
    Salmond pointed it out to Sturgeon when he stood down in 2014, was ignored and now we know why.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    SNP president Mike Russell echoing HQ line from recent days, that running totals of votes in SNP leadership aren't being monitored by HQ. Did SNP decline this real-time service from vote firm Mi-Voice?


    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1637402230818058240?s=20
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,302

    Eabhal said:
    But that is very misleading, as most of the route is just existing tracks that the new trains happen to run on. The real Crossrail is just the bit in the middle.
    Were not £100m's if not £1bn's spent at places like Reading Station to increase track capacity for Crossrail ?
    I'm still trying to figure out how this will work. Reading is being connected to Heathrow 'directly', does that mean all the long distance trains from the west will now go through Heathrow?
    It's also true of Northern Powerhouse Rail that the only new bit is the bit in the middle. And yet that too seems to much to ask.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited March 2023

    DavidL said:

    It has been alleged that Mr Useless has had access to the voting online. It is also noticeable that despite the awe inspiring crash of the Sturgeon/Murrell wagon the odds on his success get ever tighter. It is hard not to conclude that that is being driven by information that should not be in the public domain.

    The question for the SNP is whether this election can be allowed to stand. Given the complete lack of trust in Murrell, the problems with identifying the membership, the suspicions about the use of "phantom" votes based on those who have left or died and no doubt many other allegations to come I would suggest the answer to that question is no. A new, independent chief executive needs to be appointed, an independent body needs to audit and vouch for the ballots sent out and an independent body needs to do the counting. This is Scotland's First Minister we are talking about here.

    The outside company that has overseen SNP internal elections since 2013 (and with whom no one seemed to have a problem hitherto) is called Mi-Voice, perhaps you should address your allegations of malfeasance directly at them? They’ve also apparently been involve with voting situations with HMG so you should really get on it.

    I don’t think there have been any recent cases of accusing companies involved in conducting elections of corruption going badly?
    The allegation is not that Mi-voice are bad actors but that the SNP are tracking votes in real time (denied - though its a service offered) and feeding the info to only one of the campaigns (you get one guess).


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,064
    rcs1000 said:

    People should not be prosecuted for their politics.

    People should not be shielded from prosecution because of their politics.

    Where is Trump on this?

    On the wrong side of both propositions.
    He’s very clear about his intentions to revenge himself if elected again.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800

    SNP president Mike Russell echoing HQ line from recent days, that running totals of votes in SNP leadership aren't being monitored by HQ. Did SNP decline this real-time service from vote firm Mi-Voice?


    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1637402230818058240?s=20

    What organisation would want to know how many members they have and what subscriptions they are receiving.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    they know the 600K has gone walkies
    Malc, this has all been explained, it's woven through the accounts. Perfectly simple.
    18 months of police investigations and reading of same and they have not found it , sounds harder than find Wally.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    And you don't know how many ballot papers were sent out or to whom. How can anyone have any confidence in such a procedure, whoever wins?

    And on the money, remember the Treasurer of the SNP who resigned because Murrell wouldn't show him the books?

    No one could deny that the SNP has been one of the most successful parties in any democracy anywhere in the last 8 years under Nicola or that Murrell has played a major part in the creation and utilisation of a party political machine like no other. But if even Ash Regan can point out that having the leader and the Chief Executive married to each other was questionable it must be pretty obvious.

    The SNP has grown from a protest movement into a party of government in just over a decade. Its not surprising that they are so far behind every other party with internal checks and balances. But the time to sort this out is now.
    They used to have a democratic structure, David. The person responsible for implementing the changes that resulted in decisions being removed from members and branches was Angus Robertson.
    Quelle surprise
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,883
    edited March 2023

    DavidL said:

    It has been alleged that Mr Useless has had access to the voting online. It is also noticeable that despite the awe inspiring crash of the Sturgeon/Murrell wagon the odds on his success get ever tighter. It is hard not to conclude that that is being driven by information that should not be in the public domain.

    The question for the SNP is whether this election can be allowed to stand. Given the complete lack of trust in Murrell, the problems with identifying the membership, the suspicions about the use of "phantom" votes based on those who have left or died and no doubt many other allegations to come I would suggest the answer to that question is no. A new, independent chief executive needs to be appointed, an independent body needs to audit and vouch for the ballots sent out and an independent body needs to do the counting. This is Scotland's First Minister we are talking about here.

    The outside company that has overseen SNP internal elections since 2013 (and with whom no one seemed to have a problem hitherto) is called Mi-Voice, perhaps you should address your allegations of malfeasance directly at them? They’ve also apparently been involve with voting situations with HMG so you should really get on it.

    I don’t think there have been any recent cases of accusing companies involved in conducting elections of corruption going badly?
    The allegation is not that Mi-voice are bad actors but that the SNP are tracking votes in real time (denied - though its a service offered) and feeding the info to only one of the campaigns (you get one guess).


    Is that the allegation? What does 'an independent body needs to audit and vouch for the ballots sent out and an independent body needs to do the counting' imply?


  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,586
    edited March 2023
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    they know the 600K has gone walkies
    Malc, this has all been explained, it's woven through the accounts. Perfectly simple.
    18 months of police investigations and reading of same and they have not found it , sounds harder than find Wally.
    Who amongst us hasn't found £107k down the back of the sofa, and lent it to the SNP without telling our spouse? Who is the Leader of the SNP.

    All sounds perfectly above board and there's absolutely nothing to see here at all, move along.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800

    DavidL said:

    It has been alleged that Mr Useless has had access to the voting online. It is also noticeable that despite the awe inspiring crash of the Sturgeon/Murrell wagon the odds on his success get ever tighter. It is hard not to conclude that that is being driven by information that should not be in the public domain.

    The question for the SNP is whether this election can be allowed to stand. Given the complete lack of trust in Murrell, the problems with identifying the membership, the suspicions about the use of "phantom" votes based on those who have left or died and no doubt many other allegations to come I would suggest the answer to that question is no. A new, independent chief executive needs to be appointed, an independent body needs to audit and vouch for the ballots sent out and an independent body needs to do the counting. This is Scotland's First Minister we are talking about here.

    The outside company that has overseen SNP internal elections since 2013 (and with whom no one seemed to have a problem hitherto) is called Mi-Voice, perhaps you should address your allegations of malfeasance directly at them? They’ve also apparently been involve with voting situations with HMG so you should really get on it.

    I don’t think there have been any recent cases of accusing companies involved in conducting elections of corruption going badly?
    The allegation is not that Mi-voice are bad actors but that the SNP are tracking votes in real time (denied - though its a service offered) and feeding the info to only one of the campaigns (you get one guess).


    Given all that I wonder if for the first time they will post all the data re votes etc. or will just be Humza won it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    they know the 600K has gone walkies
    Malc, this has all been explained, it's woven through the accounts. Perfectly simple.
    18 months of police investigations and reading of same and they have not found it , sounds harder than find Wally.
    Who amongst us hasn't found £107k down the back of the sofa, and lent it to the SNP without telling our spouse? Who is the Leader of the SNP.

    All sounds perfectly above board and there's absolutely nothing to see here at all, move along.
    Nearly a year's salary for him.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800

    DavidL said:

    It has been alleged that Mr Useless has had access to the voting online. It is also noticeable that despite the awe inspiring crash of the Sturgeon/Murrell wagon the odds on his success get ever tighter. It is hard not to conclude that that is being driven by information that should not be in the public domain.

    The question for the SNP is whether this election can be allowed to stand. Given the complete lack of trust in Murrell, the problems with identifying the membership, the suspicions about the use of "phantom" votes based on those who have left or died and no doubt many other allegations to come I would suggest the answer to that question is no. A new, independent chief executive needs to be appointed, an independent body needs to audit and vouch for the ballots sent out and an independent body needs to do the counting. This is Scotland's First Minister we are talking about here.

    The outside company that has overseen SNP internal elections since 2013 (and with whom no one seemed to have a problem hitherto) is called Mi-Voice, perhaps you should address your allegations of malfeasance directly at them? They’ve also apparently been involve with voting situations with HMG so you should really get on it.

    I don’t think there have been any recent cases of accusing companies involved in conducting elections of corruption going badly?
    The allegation is not that Mi-voice are bad actors but that the SNP are tracking votes in real time (denied - though its a service offered) and feeding the info to only one of the campaigns (you get one guess).


    Is that the allegation? What does 'an independent body needs to audit and vouch for the ballots sent out and an independent body needs to do the counting' imply?


    TUD, when people are able to see the data, how many real members , how many ballot papers , etc then perhaps people might think it could be honest. Peter Murrell just coming out with result is not in any way honest. The dodgy NEC elections have been on record several times.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, that's alright then......touch n'go was it?

    The First Minister has cleared Humza Yousaf of breaking the ministerial code during the SNP leadership contest.

    The Health Secretary, who hopes to succeed Nicola Sturgeon next week as the party chief, was accused of breaking official rules by accessing government material to support his Bute House ambitions and rubbish his rival Ash Regan.


    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/nicola-sturgeon-cleared-humza-yousaf-29494001

    I do hope no one in the SNP ever complained about PMs being the final judge on breaches of ministerial codes.
    To be fair, they did say they would outdo the Tories:

    @theSNP
    🔎 In Boris Johnson’s foreword for the Ministerial Code from 2019, he promises:

    🤦‍♀️ “No leaking”
    🤦‍♀️ “No misuse of taxpayer money”
    🤦‍♀️ “No actual or perceived conflicts of interest”
    🤦‍♀️ “Integrity, accountability, transparency, honesty”

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland can do so much better than this.


    https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1483479799117058049
    If fairness Scotland has been setting new standards in recent days, rarely seen in a democratic country.
    In fairness, whatever the state of Scotland, it is in a far better place than the one-party state in Wales with an endless Llafur Government in Corruption Bay.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited March 2023
    No idea of its veracity......but quite a read:

    http://robinmcalpine.org/but-why-would-anyone-be-suspicious-of-snp-hq/

    The police have not only been investigating the missing money, they asked the nation’s prosecution service for permission to escalate the investigation into a full criminal probe and the prosecution service concurred, leading to the country’s top policeman visiting the First Minister to warn they were going to be interviewing her husband under caution. She resigned a few days later.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,540
    edited March 2023
    In March 2023, a multi-billionaire gave a seven-minute TED talk in Los Angeles on the future. An emigre born elsewhere to wealthy parents, he has a lifelong interest in space travel and plans to leave the planet to ensure humanity becomes a multi-planet species. The company he founded is known worldwide, although the concept of workplace safety is increasingly alien to him.

    You can find his talk here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EtegGrPcp4
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,336

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    Has anyone got any actual information on that state of Reform - finances etc?

    I think it unlikely they will run candidates everywhere
    The structure of Reform UK is quite unusual. They seem only to have the minimum numbers of members required by law, with everyone else being "registered supporters". They've sometimes received substantial financial support from a small number is wealthy individuals.

    So my read on it is that they exist essentially was a shell, a political movement in waiting, that Farage may decide to activate in the run-up to the next GE if he believes that it will be profitable or successful to do so. If he does so decide then I think they would have little trouble in finding the money and candidates to stand in almost every constituency.
    To occasionally be ahead of both the Greens and the LDs is quite impressive for a party with almost no publicity. Most people probably haven't heard of their leader Richard Tice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,526

    Could Bozza be saved by the Coronation?

    If he gets suspended for two weeks, that would normally by just enough for him be recalled, ie ten sitting days in parliament

    If it just happens to be two weeks including the Coronation then he’d only be suspended for nine days

    Good morning

    Johnson and his legal team are convinced he is innocent

    It is generally accepted he did mislead the house, but has anybody posed the question that the committee fail to find him guilty of deliberately misleading the HOC
    Yes, it's possible. But he did still mislead. So a lesser sanction would be warranted.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,794
    viewcode said:

    In March 2023, a multi-billionaire gave a seven-minute TED talk in Los Angeles on the future. An emigre born elsewhere to wealthy parents, he has a lifelong interest in space travel and plans to leave the planet to ensure humanity becomes a multi-planet species. The company he founded is known worldwide, although the concept of workplace safety is increasingly alien to him.

    You can find his talk here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EtegGrPcp4

    Oooh, I wonder what happens next..?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,066


    Johnson and his legal team are convinced he is innocent

    I'm sure this amazing revelation, that you've just given us, will completely transform everyone's view of the situation.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,219
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nice and early, if off topic (or perhaps, on topic, different country...), the Sunday Rawnsley:

    There will be a lot at stake at what is expected to be a marathon [Johnson privileges ctte] inquisition. The bereaved families of Covid casualties and everyone else outraged by this scandal have had a long wait for the moment when Mr Johnson is finally held to official account for the deceptions he deployed to try to cover up Partygate. A guilty verdict from the committee will resonate around the world because it is highly likely to lead to his eviction from the Commons.

    ...this is an interrogation the accused has been dreading. We know this because he has hired expensive lawyers, at a chunky cost to the taxpayer, to advise him on how to save his skin. We also know this because of the desperate efforts made by him and his gang to try to suppress and discredit investigation of his misconduct.

    Everyone everywhere knows that law-breaking was rampant in Downing Street. The committee’s job is to judge whether his denials were the result of an innocent misapprehension about the lockdown-busting that went on in Number 10 or whether he told deliberate lies to MPs.

    [The interim report] concluded that it would have been “obvious” to Mr Johnson that the law was being flouted inside Number 10, especially when he himself was present at rule-busting parties.

    “The committee will really have to be on the top of its game,” says one privy counsellor.

    So Wednesday is going to be a big day. We may be witnesses to the beginning of the end of Boris Johnson’s parliamentary career and his lie-strewn odyssey through British political life. That’s huge. Even more crucially, the Commons has an opportunity that it must seize to protect itself and us from mendacious government. It is a basic premise of our democracy that the executive is held to account by parliament. That foundation is destroyed if ministers think they can get away with deliberately misleading MPs.

    This is why it is so essential that the penalties for lying to parliament must be steep and especially severe when the perpetrator has lied, and on a grave issue, from the highest office in the land. It is not just the fate of a disgraced prime minister that is at stake. It is the credibility of parliament, the trustworthiness of our political culture and the health of our democracy.

    If, as we expect, the evidence is damning and the condemnation of the committee severe, then surely Johnson is toast? On a free vote, and making the reasonable assumption that virtually all of the opposition MPs vote to sanction him, it's only going to take a small fraction of the Tories to do likewise. Nothing the Rees-Moggs and Dorries of this world can do to save him.
    I fear it’ll be ‘greased piglet’ time again!

    A disappointing thought for a pleasant Mothering Sunday morning.
    That would require the vast majority of the Parliamentary Conservative Party, most of whom fought very hard to shove him out the door of Number 10 last year, to go easy on him.

    The Tories only have four of the fourteen seats on the Standards Committee, so they can neither block an adverse finding nor the recommendation of a severe punishment; and it will take less than a tenth of Tory MPs to join with the Opposition to vote to accept the Committee's recommendations in the House. I think Johnson has probably had it.
    More than one MP who stabbed Boris has been deselected by their associations - that may focus some minds.
  • pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nice and early, if off topic (or perhaps, on topic, different country...), the Sunday Rawnsley:

    There will be a lot at stake at what is expected to be a marathon [Johnson privileges ctte] inquisition. The bereaved families of Covid casualties and everyone else outraged by this scandal have had a long wait for the moment when Mr Johnson is finally held to official account for the deceptions he deployed to try to cover up Partygate. A guilty verdict from the committee will resonate around the world because it is highly likely to lead to his eviction from the Commons.

    ...this is an interrogation the accused has been dreading. We know this because he has hired expensive lawyers, at a chunky cost to the taxpayer, to advise him on how to save his skin. We also know this because of the desperate efforts made by him and his gang to try to suppress and discredit investigation of his misconduct.

    Everyone everywhere knows that law-breaking was rampant in Downing Street. The committee’s job is to judge whether his denials were the result of an innocent misapprehension about the lockdown-busting that went on in Number 10 or whether he told deliberate lies to MPs.

    [The interim report] concluded that it would have been “obvious” to Mr Johnson that the law was being flouted inside Number 10, especially when he himself was present at rule-busting parties.

    “The committee will really have to be on the top of its game,” says one privy counsellor.

    So Wednesday is going to be a big day. We may be witnesses to the beginning of the end of Boris Johnson’s parliamentary career and his lie-strewn odyssey through British political life. That’s huge. Even more crucially, the Commons has an opportunity that it must seize to protect itself and us from mendacious government. It is a basic premise of our democracy that the executive is held to account by parliament. That foundation is destroyed if ministers think they can get away with deliberately misleading MPs.

    This is why it is so essential that the penalties for lying to parliament must be steep and especially severe when the perpetrator has lied, and on a grave issue, from the highest office in the land. It is not just the fate of a disgraced prime minister that is at stake. It is the credibility of parliament, the trustworthiness of our political culture and the health of our democracy.

    If, as we expect, the evidence is damning and the condemnation of the committee severe, then surely Johnson is toast? On a free vote, and making the reasonable assumption that virtually all of the opposition MPs vote to sanction him, it's only going to take a small fraction of the Tories to do likewise. Nothing the Rees-Moggs and Dorries of this world can do to save him.
    I fear it’ll be ‘greased piglet’ time again!

    A disappointing thought for a pleasant Mothering Sunday morning.
    That would require the vast majority of the Parliamentary Conservative Party, most of whom fought very hard to shove him out the door of Number 10 last year, to go easy on him.

    The Tories only have four of the fourteen seats on the Standards Committee, so they can neither block an adverse finding nor the recommendation of a severe punishment; and it will take less than a tenth of Tory MPs to join with the Opposition to vote to accept the Committee's recommendations in the House. I think Johnson has probably had it.
    More than one MP who stabbed Boris has been deselected by their associations - that may focus some minds.
    Stabbed Boris?

    He's not Julius Caesar.
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 407
    edited March 2023

    Could Bozza be saved by the Coronation?

    If he gets suspended for two weeks, that would normally by just enough for him be recalled, ie ten sitting days in parliament

    If it just happens to be two weeks including the Coronation then he’d only be suspended for nine days

    Good morning

    Johnson and his legal team are convinced he is innocent

    It is generally accepted he did mislead the house, but has anybody posed the question that the committee fail to find him guilty of deliberately misleading the HOC
    As far as I understand it, the question of deliberately misleading the house is not one the committee will consider. Assuming they find on the balance of probabilities that the house was misled by Johnson, they will instead consider whether that misleading was a contempt of the house, or as the committee has put it when preparing for the inquiry in July last year: “whether or not an action or omission obstructs or impedes or has a tendency to obstruct or impede the functioning of the House, with the consequence that, looking at contempt in broad terms, intention is not necessary for a contempt to be committed”

    https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/289/committee-of-privileges/news/172278/privileges-committee-publish-report-setting-out-processes-and-procedures-for-inquiry-on-rt-hon-boris-johnson-mp/



  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,068

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany

    "Concentration camps"? As far as I'm aware there is no suggestion that people will be imprisoned so that can only be a 1930s-esque confabulation on your part.
    As I understand it, there will be provision of accommodation. There is no legal basis for any detention in Rwandan law - at least according to an immigration lawyer (African), I know. According to the same lawyer, their legal status in Rwanda will be a legal entrants to the country.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,280
    kle4 said:

    Could Bozza be saved by the Coronation?

    If he gets suspended for two weeks, that would normally by just enough for him be recalled, ie ten sitting days in parliament

    If it just happens to be two weeks including the Coronation then he’d only be suspended for nine days

    Good morning

    Johnson and his legal team are convinced he is innocent

    It is generally accepted he did mislead the house, but has anybody posed the question that the committee fail to find him guilty of deliberately misleading the HOC
    Yes, it's possible. But he did still mislead. So a lesser sanction would be warranted.
    Being picky, Johnson and his legal team are saying in public that they're convinced he is innocent.

    The Rice-Davis response applies here, I think.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,951

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    Has anyone got any actual information on that state of Reform - finances etc?

    I think it unlikely they will run candidates everywhere
    The structure of Reform UK is quite unusual. They seem only to have the minimum numbers of members required by law, with everyone else being "registered supporters". They've sometimes received substantial financial support from a small number is wealthy individuals.

    So my read on it is that they exist essentially was a shell, a political movement in waiting, that Farage may decide to activate in the run-up to the next GE if he believes that it will be profitable or successful to do so. If he does so decide then I think they would have little trouble in finding the money and candidates to stand in almost every constituency.
    Starmer should promise Farage he can be High Commissioner to Canada after the GE if he stands RefUcK in tory marginals. Tice can have the South Sandwich Islands.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,915
    Tres said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany




    https://mobile.twitter.com/Sue_Cowley/status/1637193729743241218

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    Has anyone got any actual information on that state of Reform - finances etc?

    I think it unlikely they will run candidates everywhere
    The structure of Reform UK is quite unusual. They seem only to have the minimum numbers of members required by law, with everyone else being "registered supporters". They've sometimes received substantial financial support from a small number is wealthy individuals.

    So my read on it is that they exist essentially was a shell, a political movement in waiting, that Farage may decide to activate in the run-up to the next GE if he believes that it will be profitable or successful to do so. If he does so decide then I think they would have little trouble in finding the money and candidates to stand in almost every constituency.
    And with the same level of success that UKIP had in every general election it fought.
    UKIP got 12% of the vote in 2015 but only 1 MP under FPTP. Currently RefUK are polling about 5 to 9% in most polls.

    It is only FPTP which stops any party right of the Tories getting more than 1 or 2 MPs at most
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,044
    Cookie said:

    Eabhal said:
    But that is very misleading, as most of the route is just existing tracks that the new trains happen to run on. The real Crossrail is just the bit in the middle.
    Were not £100m's if not £1bn's spent at places like Reading Station to increase track capacity for Crossrail ?
    I'm still trying to figure out how this will work. Reading is being connected to Heathrow 'directly', does that mean all the long distance trains from the west will now go through Heathrow?
    It's also true of Northern Powerhouse Rail that the only new bit is the bit in the middle. And yet that too seems to much to ask.
    My understanding is that currently you need to change at Reading, to get another train and then get one back to Heathrow. All in all a 15 minute journey takes about an hour.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,280

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nice and early, if off topic (or perhaps, on topic, different country...), the Sunday Rawnsley:

    There will be a lot at stake at what is expected to be a marathon [Johnson privileges ctte] inquisition. The bereaved families of Covid casualties and everyone else outraged by this scandal have had a long wait for the moment when Mr Johnson is finally held to official account for the deceptions he deployed to try to cover up Partygate. A guilty verdict from the committee will resonate around the world because it is highly likely to lead to his eviction from the Commons.

    ...this is an interrogation the accused has been dreading. We know this because he has hired expensive lawyers, at a chunky cost to the taxpayer, to advise him on how to save his skin. We also know this because of the desperate efforts made by him and his gang to try to suppress and discredit investigation of his misconduct.

    Everyone everywhere knows that law-breaking was rampant in Downing Street. The committee’s job is to judge whether his denials were the result of an innocent misapprehension about the lockdown-busting that went on in Number 10 or whether he told deliberate lies to MPs.

    [The interim report] concluded that it would have been “obvious” to Mr Johnson that the law was being flouted inside Number 10, especially when he himself was present at rule-busting parties.

    “The committee will really have to be on the top of its game,” says one privy counsellor.

    So Wednesday is going to be a big day. We may be witnesses to the beginning of the end of Boris Johnson’s parliamentary career and his lie-strewn odyssey through British political life. That’s huge. Even more crucially, the Commons has an opportunity that it must seize to protect itself and us from mendacious government. It is a basic premise of our democracy that the executive is held to account by parliament. That foundation is destroyed if ministers think they can get away with deliberately misleading MPs.

    This is why it is so essential that the penalties for lying to parliament must be steep and especially severe when the perpetrator has lied, and on a grave issue, from the highest office in the land. It is not just the fate of a disgraced prime minister that is at stake. It is the credibility of parliament, the trustworthiness of our political culture and the health of our democracy.

    If, as we expect, the evidence is damning and the condemnation of the committee severe, then surely Johnson is toast? On a free vote, and making the reasonable assumption that virtually all of the opposition MPs vote to sanction him, it's only going to take a small fraction of the Tories to do likewise. Nothing the Rees-Moggs and Dorries of this world can do to save him.
    I fear it’ll be ‘greased piglet’ time again!

    A disappointing thought for a pleasant Mothering Sunday morning.
    That would require the vast majority of the Parliamentary Conservative Party, most of whom fought very hard to shove him out the door of Number 10 last year, to go easy on him.

    The Tories only have four of the fourteen seats on the Standards Committee, so they can neither block an adverse finding nor the recommendation of a severe punishment; and it will take less than a tenth of Tory MPs to join with the Opposition to vote to accept the Committee's recommendations in the House. I think Johnson has probably had it.
    More than one MP who stabbed Boris has been deselected by their associations - that may focus some minds.
    Stabbed Boris?

    He's not Julius Caesar.
    Even when Boris was popular, my theory was that Johnson was the no-good boyfriend who you knew would harm your female bezzie sooner or later. But there was no point telling your friend that, because they were in lurve and it would just cause a row.

    That dynamic hasn't changed, only the numbers have. Those who still love big bad Boris love him just as much. They are just a minority now.

    Boris Derangement Syndrome works both ways.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,524
    HYUFD said:

    Tres said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany




    https://mobile.twitter.com/Sue_Cowley/status/1637193729743241218

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    Has anyone got any actual information on that state of Reform - finances etc?

    I think it unlikely they will run candidates everywhere
    The structure of Reform UK is quite unusual. They seem only to have the minimum numbers of members required by law, with everyone else being "registered supporters". They've sometimes received substantial financial support from a small number is wealthy individuals.

    So my read on it is that they exist essentially was a shell, a political movement in waiting, that Farage may decide to activate in the run-up to the next GE if he believes that it will be profitable or successful to do so. If he does so decide then I think they would have little trouble in finding the money and candidates to stand in almost every constituency.
    And with the same level of success that UKIP had in every general election it fought.
    UKIP got 12% of the vote in 2015 but only 1 MP under FPTP. Currently RefUK are polling about 5 to 9% in most polls.

    It is only FPTP which stops any party right of the Tories getting more than 1 or 2 MPs at most
    Plus the fact that we are not a nation of fascists.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,050
    edited March 2023
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    On the SNP, if Useless does win how can anyone take it seriously, there's far too many irregularities already and chatter about 30k more ballot being issued than there are members means he's definitely going to win.

    Isn't there a law somewhere about election rigging?

    Certainly wouldn't be allowed if it were a Trade Union.
    But political Parties don't like having to abide by the same standards.
    I wouldn't go that far. McCluskey got away with some very dodgy shit around balloting members who may or may not have been members in his re-election.

    And then kicked the other candidate out.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,336
    edited March 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Tres said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany




    https://mobile.twitter.com/Sue_Cowley/status/1637193729743241218

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    Has anyone got any actual information on that state of Reform - finances etc?

    I think it unlikely they will run candidates everywhere
    The structure of Reform UK is quite unusual. They seem only to have the minimum numbers of members required by law, with everyone else being "registered supporters". They've sometimes received substantial financial support from a small number is wealthy individuals.

    So my read on it is that they exist essentially was a shell, a political movement in waiting, that Farage may decide to activate in the run-up to the next GE if he believes that it will be profitable or successful to do so. If he does so decide then I think they would have little trouble in finding the money and candidates to stand in almost every constituency.
    And with the same level of success that UKIP had in every general election it fought.
    UKIP got 12% of the vote in 2015 but only 1 MP under FPTP. Currently RefUK are polling about 5 to 9% in most polls.

    It is only FPTP which stops any party right of the Tories getting more than 1 or 2 MPs at most
    Plus the fact that we are not a nation of fascists.
    Reform UK isn't in that category anyway. They're similar to the old UKIP which got 13% in 2015.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,866

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    they know the 600K has gone walkies
    Malc, this has all been explained, it's woven through the accounts. Perfectly simple.
    18 months of police investigations and reading of same and they have not found it , sounds harder than find Wally.
    To be fair, it is probably the trying not to find it that is the hard bit.
    Reminds me of the time when the Met examined partygate!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,543
    HYUFD said:

    Tres said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany




    https://mobile.twitter.com/Sue_Cowley/status/1637193729743241218

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    Has anyone got any actual information on that state of Reform - finances etc?

    I think it unlikely they will run candidates everywhere
    The structure of Reform UK is quite unusual. They seem only to have the minimum numbers of members required by law, with everyone else being "registered supporters". They've sometimes received substantial financial support from a small number is wealthy individuals.

    So my read on it is that they exist essentially was a shell, a political movement in waiting, that Farage may decide to activate in the run-up to the next GE if he believes that it will be profitable or successful to do so. If he does so decide then I think they would have little trouble in finding the money and candidates to stand in almost every constituency.
    And with the same level of success that UKIP had in every general election it fought.
    UKIP got 12% of the vote in 2015 but only 1 MP under FPTP. Currently RefUK are polling about 5 to 9% in most polls.

    It is only FPTP which stops any party right of the Tories getting more than 1 or 2 MPs at most
    Shouldn't they though. If we are a democracy we have to accept we might elect people we don't like.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,524
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tres said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany




    https://mobile.twitter.com/Sue_Cowley/status/1637193729743241218

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    Has anyone got any actual information on that state of Reform - finances etc?

    I think it unlikely they will run candidates everywhere
    The structure of Reform UK is quite unusual. They seem only to have the minimum numbers of members required by law, with everyone else being "registered supporters". They've sometimes received substantial financial support from a small number is wealthy individuals.

    So my read on it is that they exist essentially was a shell, a political movement in waiting, that Farage may decide to activate in the run-up to the next GE if he believes that it will be profitable or successful to do so. If he does so decide then I think they would have little trouble in finding the money and candidates to stand in almost every constituency.
    And with the same level of success that UKIP had in every general election it fought.
    UKIP got 12% of the vote in 2015 but only 1 MP under FPTP. Currently RefUK are polling about 5 to 9% in most polls.

    It is only FPTP which stops any party right of the Tories getting more than 1 or 2 MPs at most
    Plus the fact that we are not a nation of fascists.
    Reform UK isn't in that category anyway. They're similar to the old UKIP which got 13% in 2015.
    I'm not saying that they are fascists. But if most of us were, we'd be voting for them and parties even further to the right in droves.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 589
    edited March 2023

    Eabhal said:
    But that is very misleading, as most of the route is just existing tracks that the new trains happen to run on. The real Crossrail is just the bit in the middle.
    Were not £100m's if not £1bn's spent at places like Reading Station to increase track capacity for Crossrail ?
    I'm still trying to figure out how this will work. Reading is being connected to Heathrow 'directly', does that mean all the long distance trains from the west will now go through Heathrow?
    No & Yes - there will be a new 'Heathrow Express' running from Reading to Heathrow Terminal 5 on the new Western approach. It is inconceivable that some of these wont be extended to Bristol & Cardiff. But these will terminate at Heathrow - not rejoin GWR back to Paddington
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,050

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Slightly disappointed that the Sunday Mail SNP Sex Scandal isn't news of Humza's past love life, but a rerunning of the appalling Jordan Linden's activities.

    Yes they could fill a few pages given the allegations. They are some bunch for sure but how could someone as stupid as him ever get to where he is even if I know that he never had a job , worked for first Asian MSP and obviously kissed eth right butts thereafter. Like many of them , all parties , he was involved in the US International Visitor Leadership Program. A nice front.
    Morning, Malky and Araminta. I see Ruth Wishart has plumped for Ms Forbes this morning.

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23396248.ruth-wishart-independence-needs-reset---kate-forbes-best-placed/
    Morning, everyone's jumping off the good ship Continuity Murrell and swimming for land, then.

    Anne McLaughlin was put up on the radio this morning, and she doesn't even know what you are talking about. Peter's done a smashing job, let him retire in peace with no scrutiny and she's never even heard of a missing 600k. Her partner is on the NEC, and he doesn't know anything about it, either. Not sure that line will stand up in court, but good luck with that.
    These absolute clowns on the NEC will start singing once they realise they are culpable for any crimes and missing cash and I doubt many of them have large property portfolios here and abroad like some people.
    Surely there is a very basic issue here: if you don't know how many members you have, you have no idea how much money you have?

    Or put another way, nobody can know whether any money is missing.
    they know the 600K has gone walkies
    Malc, this has all been explained, it's woven through the accounts. Perfectly simple.
    18 months of police investigations and reading of same and they have not found it , sounds harder than find Wally.
    To be fair, it is probably the trying not to find it that is the hard bit.
    Reminds me of the time when the Met didn't examined partygate!
    FTFY.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,866
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tres said:

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany




    https://mobile.twitter.com/Sue_Cowley/status/1637193729743241218

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Looking at the Opinium data, the VI for England is Labour 45%, Conservative 31%, LD 9%, Reform 7% and Green 6%.

    In 2019, Boris Johnson won England by 47-34 so that's a 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 6.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That would estimate to around 200 Conservative seat losses before tactical voting so a result akin to 1997 or 2001.

    You can move the bulk of that theoretical Reform vote into the Tory column, assume tightening running into the election, and raise the notional Tory majority by at least ten seats because of boundary reform. The Conservatives probably aren't going down to an historic defeat, and I still think the most likely outcome is a Hung Parliament. Something in the ballpark of 300 Lab, 260 Con, 40 SNP, 25 LD feels about right, but it's really far too soon to be attempting firm predictions.
    Has anyone got any actual information on that state of Reform - finances etc?

    I think it unlikely they will run candidates everywhere
    The structure of Reform UK is quite unusual. They seem only to have the minimum numbers of members required by law, with everyone else being "registered supporters". They've sometimes received substantial financial support from a small number is wealthy individuals.

    So my read on it is that they exist essentially was a shell, a political movement in waiting, that Farage may decide to activate in the run-up to the next GE if he believes that it will be profitable or successful to do so. If he does so decide then I think they would have little trouble in finding the money and candidates to stand in almost every constituency.
    And with the same level of success that UKIP had in every general election it fought.
    UKIP got 12% of the vote in 2015 but only 1 MP under FPTP. Currently RefUK are polling about 5 to 9% in most polls.

    It is only FPTP which stops any party right of the Tories getting more than 1 or 2 MPs at most
    Plus the fact that we are not a nation of fascists.
    Reform UK isn't in that category anyway. They're similar to the old UKIP which got 13% in 2015.
    I once went to a UKIP meeting. About 40% of the audience seem to be people who would once have been in the League of Empire Loyalists. Another 40% seem to be straightforward racists,
    The other 20% was me and acouple of friends, who, after a while, got bored, and went to the pub!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,481
    edited March 2023

    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany

    "Concentration camps"? As far as I'm aware there is no suggestion that people will be imprisoned so that can only be a 1930s-esque confabulation on your part.
    Was just reading a history of the 1918-20 demob of UK and Imperial troops in the Great WAr, and had to stop and reread at one point. One plan was to move the various contingents to "concentration camps" as part of the processing of demobilisation. For instance tommies going home to say Bradford district would be directed to a particular cc for the West Riding but in France, and those to say Exeter would go to the cc designated for Devonians, and then go home from there. Ratrher different meaning, even after the Boer War origin of the term for civilian internees!

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,050
    Penddu2 said:

    Eabhal said:
    But that is very misleading, as most of the route is just existing tracks that the new trains happen to run on. The real Crossrail is just the bit in the middle.
    Were not £100m's if not £1bn's spent at places like Reading Station to increase track capacity for Crossrail ?
    I'm still trying to figure out how this will work. Reading is being connected to Heathrow 'directly', does that mean all the long distance trains from the west will now go through Heathrow?
    No & Yes - there will be a new 'Heathrow Express' running from Reading to Heathrow Terminal 5 on the new Western approach. It is inconceivable that some of these wont be extended to Bristol & Cardiff.
    I admire your optimism in saying it's inconceivable a good idea won't be adopted. On Britain's railway network.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    So good to hear @Fergoodness @theSNP former head of comms say given Murrell resignation there are legitimate questions not “conspiracy theories” about whether #SNPLeadershipElection has been run fairly just as @AshReganSNP has argued #bbcsundayshow

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1637410544037638144?s=20
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,876
    Can SNP members change their vote once it's been cast? I did a very quick google search and couldn't see anything obvious about it. Just curious if the votes up until this weekends shenanigans are set in stone.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,866
    Deleted
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 589
    ydoethur said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Eabhal said:
    But that is very misleading, as most of the route is just existing tracks that the new trains happen to run on. The real Crossrail is just the bit in the middle.
    Were not £100m's if not £1bn's spent at places like Reading Station to increase track capacity for Crossrail ?
    I'm still trying to figure out how this will work. Reading is being connected to Heathrow 'directly', does that mean all the long distance trains from the west will now go through Heathrow?
    No & Yes - there will be a new 'Heathrow Express' running from Reading to Heathrow Terminal 5 on the new Western approach. It is inconceivable that some of these wont be extended to Bristol & Cardiff.
    I admire your optimism in saying it's inconceivable a good idea won't be adopted. On Britain's railway network.
    I am sure it will be adopted - but take 20 years to be actually put into practice!!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800

    No idea of its veracity......but quite a read:

    http://robinmcalpine.org/but-why-would-anyone-be-suspicious-of-snp-hq/

    The police have not only been investigating the missing money, they asked the nation’s prosecution service for permission to escalate the investigation into a full criminal probe and the prosecution service concurred, leading to the country’s top policeman visiting the First Minister to warn they were going to be interviewing her husband under caution. She resigned a few days later.

    Chief Constable followed her as well within a few days.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,050

    So good to hear @Fergoodness @theSNP former head of comms say given Murrell resignation there are legitimate questions not “conspiracy theories” about whether #SNPLeadershipElection has been run fairly just as @AshReganSNP has argued #bbcsundayshow

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1637410544037638144?s=20

    It is good to hear their are questions about its fairness.

    That implies it's not totally certain that it's been rigged.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,336
    O/T

    This is what happened to someone who went against the medical consensus of their time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis

    "Ignaz Philipp Semmelweis (German: [ˈɪɡnaːts ˈzɛml̩vaɪs]; Hungarian: Semmelweis Ignác Fülöp [ˈsɛmmɛlvɛjs ˈiɡnaːts ˈfyløp]; 1 July 1818 – 13 August 1865) was a Hungarian physician and scientist, who was an early pioneer of antiseptic procedures. Described as the "saviour of mothers",[2] he discovered that the incidence of puerperal fever (also known as "childbed fever") could be drastically reduced by requiring hand disinfection in obstetrical clinics. Puerperal fever was common in mid-19th-century hospitals and often fatal. He proposed the practice of washing hands with chlorinated lime solutions in 1847 while working in Vienna General Hospital's First Obstetrical Clinic, where doctors' wards had three times the mortality of midwives' wards.[3] He published a book of his findings in Etiology, Concept and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever.

    Despite various publications of results where hand-washing reduced mortality to below 1%, Semmelweis's observations conflicted with the established scientific and medical opinions of the time and his ideas were rejected by the medical community. He could offer no theoretical explanation for his findings of reduced mortality due to hand-washing, and some doctors were offended at the suggestion that they should wash their hands and mocked him for it. In 1865, the increasingly outspoken Semmelweis allegedly suffered a nervous breakdown and was committed to an asylum by his colleagues. In the asylum he was beaten by the guards. He died 14 days later from a gangrenous wound on his right hand that may have been caused by the beating. His findings earned widespread acceptance only years after his death, when Louis Pasteur confirmed the germ theory, giving Semmelweis' observations a theoretical explanation, and Joseph Lister, acting on Pasteur's research, practised and operated using hygienic methods, with great success."
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,524
    I'm assuming that with all this shit associated with the SNP, the Alba Party must be surging in the polls.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,526
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    This is what happened to someone who went against the medical consensus of their time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis

    "Ignaz Philipp Semmelweis (German: [ˈɪɡnaːts ˈzɛml̩vaɪs]; Hungarian: Semmelweis Ignác Fülöp [ˈsɛmmɛlvɛjs ˈiɡnaːts ˈfyløp]; 1 July 1818 – 13 August 1865) was a Hungarian physician and scientist, who was an early pioneer of antiseptic procedures. Described as the "saviour of mothers",[2] he discovered that the incidence of puerperal fever (also known as "childbed fever") could be drastically reduced by requiring hand disinfection in obstetrical clinics. Puerperal fever was common in mid-19th-century hospitals and often fatal. He proposed the practice of washing hands with chlorinated lime solutions in 1847 while working in Vienna General Hospital's First Obstetrical Clinic, where doctors' wards had three times the mortality of midwives' wards.[3] He published a book of his findings in Etiology, Concept and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever.

    Despite various publications of results where hand-washing reduced mortality to below 1%, Semmelweis's observations conflicted with the established scientific and medical opinions of the time and his ideas were rejected by the medical community. He could offer no theoretical explanation for his findings of reduced mortality due to hand-washing, and some doctors were offended at the suggestion that they should wash their hands and mocked him for it. In 1865, the increasingly outspoken Semmelweis allegedly suffered a nervous breakdown and was committed to an asylum by his colleagues. In the asylum he was beaten by the guards. He died 14 days later from a gangrenous wound on his right hand that may have been caused by the beating. His findings earned widespread acceptance only years after his death, when Louis Pasteur confirmed the germ theory, giving Semmelweis' observations a theoretical explanation, and Joseph Lister, acting on Pasteur's research, practised and operated using hygienic methods, with great success."

    Whatever you say Mr Bridgen.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,044
    Penddu2 said:

    Eabhal said:
    But that is very misleading, as most of the route is just existing tracks that the new trains happen to run on. The real Crossrail is just the bit in the middle.
    Were not £100m's if not £1bn's spent at places like Reading Station to increase track capacity for Crossrail ?
    I'm still trying to figure out how this will work. Reading is being connected to Heathrow 'directly', does that mean all the long distance trains from the west will now go through Heathrow?
    No & Yes - there will be a new 'Heathrow Express' running from Reading to Heathrow Terminal 5 on the new Western approach. It is inconceivable that some of these wont be extended to Bristol & Cardiff. But these will terminate at Heathrow - not rejoin GWR back to Paddington
    So the Reading/Heathrow link won't be joining up with the existing Paddington/Heathrow link?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,393
    FF43 said:

    Suella Braverman describing concentration camps for asylum seekers in Rwanda as a holiday. Maybe Gary Lineker has a point about language of 1930's Germany




    https://mobile.twitter.com/Sue_Cowley/status/1637193729743241218

    Interesting that she describes the deportees destined for Rwanda as refugees, rather than illegal immigrants.
  • Chris said:


    Johnson and his legal team are convinced he is innocent

    I'm sure this amazing revelation, that you've just given us, will completely transform everyone's view of the situation.
    You have taken that out of context with my post and the questions it raised
This discussion has been closed.