European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
Yes, but it still doesn't look like it's enough, does it.
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
The issue is though there isnt the scope for the fed and ecb to agressively loosen monetary policy in response to a crisis this time as there was in 2008. Also govt balance sheets are now much worse with much higher debt to gdp ratios.
Yes, the anti-immigration crowd will no doubt come out with the mealy-mouthed 'But it's different because Mr Hunt is making the decision not the EU', but if you ask me if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck...
It is different because we can control it. We can close the door when we want, in the EU the door had been removed.
Deep in Budget red book, govt adds construction workers to “shortage occupation list” making it easier for firms to bring in foreign workers. Just the start. Govt promises firms will have “access to skills and talent from abroad where needed”
Hmm. Problematic. This is one of the very sectors that we were told would be reaping huge pay rises now that competition from cheap foreign labour has been obliterated.
Not problematic at all just bloody sensible. It’s a drag on economy and growth business crying out for skills they can’t get is holding our country back.
It’s important to have growth and an economy as it pays for all our bills! The best in the business of building trade support right now are Albanians, they built the Balkans. And so many already here, so wont have to pay travel over cost.
I was thinking problematic because it would see working-class Brexit voters having their wages undercut by immigrants, and these were the people who voted Boris in 2019. But actually stuff 'em. It's the market at work, and there's no room for sentimentality in a global economy.
Let’s be straight and honest here. What Hunt has put in his budget today is let’s give Albanians jobs in our building industry. If we didn’t Brexit they would already be in the jobs.
Albania is not in the EU, so there was not then, nor would there be now, freedom of movement for Albanians.
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
Yes, but it still doesn't look like it's enough, does it.
I honestly think if city bankers start begging for bailouts again the public mood will turn very ugly.
Yes, the anti-immigration crowd will no doubt come out with the mealy-mouthed 'But it's different because Mr Hunt is making the decision not the EU', but if you ask me if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck...
It is different because we can control it. We can close the door when we want, in the EU the door had been removed.
Not to mention we can check criminal records and so on as part of the Visa process.
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
Yes, but it still doesn't look like it's enough, does it.
I honestly think if city bankers start begging for bailouts again the public mood will turn very ugly.
I think it would turn uglier if uninsured deposits were used to bail in banks. Far, far worse. I really think it would result in riots.
I quite like Hunt, a sensible guy compared to what has gone before but surely that's how the opposition parties will spin it. Tax cuts for those that have well over a million to put into their pension pots.
Deep in Budget red book, govt adds construction workers to “shortage occupation list” making it easier for firms to bring in foreign workers. Just the start. Govt promises firms will have “access to skills and talent from abroad where needed”
Hmm. Problematic. This is one of the very sectors that we were told would be reaping huge pay rises now that competition from cheap foreign labour has been obliterated.
Not problematic at all just bloody sensible. It’s a drag on economy and growth business crying out for skills they can’t get is holding our country back.
It’s important to have growth and an economy as it pays for all our bills! The best in the business of building trade support right now are Albanians, they built the Balkans. And so many already here, so wont have to pay travel over cost.
I was thinking problematic because it would see working-class Brexit voters having their wages undercut by immigrants, and these were the people who voted Boris in 2019. But actually stuff 'em. It's the market at work, and there's no room for sentimentality in a global economy.
Let’s be straight and honest here. What Hunt has put in his budget today is let’s give Albanians jobs in our building industry. If we didn’t Brexit they would already be in the jobs.
Albania is not in the EU, so there was not then, nor would there be now, freedom of movement for Albanians.
I didn’t say there was. They would already be here simply because Albanians are the master builders in Europe right now, and our building industry would have gone out and got them, but have been held back by the Boris government. That’s changing now under Hunt. Mark my words, you can’t argue with me, this is fact, Hunts budget has green lighted our building industry to go and get those Albanians. The Albanians are coming.
Deep in Budget red book, govt adds construction workers to “shortage occupation list” making it easier for firms to bring in foreign workers. Just the start. Govt promises firms will have “access to skills and talent from abroad where needed”
Hmm. Problematic. This is one of the very sectors that we were told would be reaping huge pay rises now that competition from cheap foreign labour has been obliterated.
Not problematic at all just bloody sensible. It’s a drag on economy and growth business crying out for skills they can’t get is holding our country back.
It’s important to have growth and an economy as it pays for all our bills! The best in the business of building trade support right now are Albanians, they built the Balkans. And so many already here, so wont have to pay travel over cost.
I was thinking problematic because it would see working-class Brexit voters having their wages undercut by immigrants, and these were the people who voted Boris in 2019. But actually stuff 'em. It's the market at work, and there's no room for sentimentality in a global economy.
Let’s be straight and honest here. What Hunt has put in his budget today is let’s give Albanians jobs in our building industry. If we didn’t Brexit they would already be in the jobs.
Albania is not in the EU, so there was not then, nor would there be now, freedom of movement for Albanians.
I didn’t say there was. They would already be here simply because Albanians are the master builders in Europe right now, and our building industry would have gone out and got them, but have been held back by the Boris government. That’s changing now under Hunt. Mark my words, you can’t argue with me, this is fact, Hunts budget has green lighted our building industry to go and get those Albanians. The Albanians are coming.
Deep in Budget red book, govt adds construction workers to “shortage occupation list” making it easier for firms to bring in foreign workers. Just the start. Govt promises firms will have “access to skills and talent from abroad where needed”
Hmm. Problematic. This is one of the very sectors that we were told would be reaping huge pay rises now that competition from cheap foreign labour has been obliterated.
Not problematic at all just bloody sensible. It’s a drag on economy and growth business crying out for skills they can’t get is holding our country back.
It’s important to have growth and an economy as it pays for all our bills! The best in the business of building trade support right now are Albanians, they built the Balkans. And so many already here, so wont have to pay travel over cost.
I was thinking problematic because it would see working-class Brexit voters having their wages undercut by immigrants, and these were the people who voted Boris in 2019. But actually stuff 'em. It's the market at work, and there's no room for sentimentality in a global economy.
Let’s be straight and honest here. What Hunt has put in his budget today is let’s give Albanians jobs in our building industry. If we didn’t Brexit they would already be in the jobs.
Albania is not in the EU, so there was not then, nor would there be now, freedom of movement for Albanians.
I didn’t say there was.
"If we didn’t Brexit they would already be in the jobs."
Deep in Budget red book, govt adds construction workers to “shortage occupation list” making it easier for firms to bring in foreign workers. Just the start. Govt promises firms will have “access to skills and talent from abroad where needed”
Hmm. Problematic. This is one of the very sectors that we were told would be reaping huge pay rises now that competition from cheap foreign labour has been obliterated.
Not problematic at all just bloody sensible. It’s a drag on economy and growth business crying out for skills they can’t get is holding our country back.
It’s important to have growth and an economy as it pays for all our bills! The best in the business of building trade support right now are Albanians, they built the Balkans. And so many already here, so wont have to pay travel over cost.
I was thinking problematic because it would see working-class Brexit voters having their wages undercut by immigrants, and these were the people who voted Boris in 2019. But actually stuff 'em. It's the market at work, and there's no room for sentimentality in a global economy.
Let’s be straight and honest here. What Hunt has put in his budget today is let’s give Albanians jobs in our building industry. If we didn’t Brexit they would already be in the jobs.
Albania is not in the EU, so there was not then, nor would there be now, freedom of movement for Albanians.
I didn’t say there was. They would already be here simply because Albanians are the master builders in Europe right now, and our building industry would have gone out and got them, but have been held back by the Boris government. That’s changing now under Hunt. Mark my words, you can’t argue with me, this is fact, Hunts budget has green lighted our building industry to go and get those Albanians. The Albanians are coming.
We have a deficit in concrete mushroom building?
Laugh if you want. The Albanian builders have spent years in other country’s honing their craft - they are skilled, fast,, and have been aware for years our building industry want them here ASAP.
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
And UK banks selling off a lot in recent days too.
He's definitely saving up for a big pre-election giveaway. The government just have to hope there's no major revenue hitting event happening between now and then
"Fiscal drag": people who get a pay rise paying more tax.
Except it is not a pay rise in real terms if it is at, or worse less than, inflation.
Inflation 10% Pay 5% Tax threshold 0%
Is that a pay rise or cut in real terms? It's a double whammy, pay more tax while having pay cut.
Inflation isn't going to be 10% by the look of it, so that's a bit of a red herring.
And if your 5% pay rise takes you from just below a threshold to just above it, you only pay the higher rate on the small amount that is above it...
Inflation has been and unless we have deflation, that is still baked in and if pay goes up by less than that then its still both a real terms pay cut and a tax rise simultaneously.
Indexation is tax neutral in real terms. Non-indexation is a tax rise, no ifs, no buts, no equivocation.
To claim fiscal drag is just taxing people who get a pay rise is just bullshit spread by Gordon Brown and other Chancellors who've attempted it in the past. Sunak at least had the honesty to admit it was a tax rise when he introduced it.
Deep in Budget red book, govt adds construction workers to “shortage occupation list” making it easier for firms to bring in foreign workers. Just the start. Govt promises firms will have “access to skills and talent from abroad where needed”
Hmm. Problematic. This is one of the very sectors that we were told would be reaping huge pay rises now that competition from cheap foreign labour has been obliterated.
Not problematic at all just bloody sensible. It’s a drag on economy and growth business crying out for skills they can’t get is holding our country back.
It’s important to have growth and an economy as it pays for all our bills! The best in the business of building trade support right now are Albanians, they built the Balkans. And so many already here, so wont have to pay travel over cost.
I was thinking problematic because it would see working-class Brexit voters having their wages undercut by immigrants, and these were the people who voted Boris in 2019. But actually stuff 'em. It's the market at work, and there's no room for sentimentality in a global economy.
Let’s be straight and honest here. What Hunt has put in his budget today is let’s give Albanians jobs in our building industry. If we didn’t Brexit they would already be in the jobs.
Albania is not in the EU, so there was not then, nor would there be now, freedom of movement for Albanians.
I didn’t say there was.
"If we didn’t Brexit they would already be in the jobs."
Following Brexit our Boris government pulled up a drawbridge in a way that was nothing to do with Brexit is the truth. The Alabanians now coming could already have been here but for how the government behaved post Brexit. You have to ask them why they have starved British business of importing skills and semi skills for as long as up to Hunts budget today - but if you say the policy wasn’t paired with the fact we brexited you will have people laughing in your face.
He's definitely saving up for a big pre-election giveaway. The government just have to hope there's no major revenue hitting event happening between now and then
Oh dear looks like there will be though. French bank bnp paribas ive noticed down 25% in a few days in the relatively "safe" french banking system.
Deep in Budget red book, govt adds construction workers to “shortage occupation list” making it easier for firms to bring in foreign workers. Just the start. Govt promises firms will have “access to skills and talent from abroad where needed”
Hmm. Problematic. This is one of the very sectors that we were told would be reaping huge pay rises now that competition from cheap foreign labour has been obliterated.
Not problematic at all just bloody sensible. It’s a drag on economy and growth business crying out for skills they can’t get is holding our country back.
It’s important to have growth and an economy as it pays for all our bills! The best in the business of building trade support right now are Albanians, they built the Balkans. And so many already here, so wont have to pay travel over cost.
I was thinking problematic because it would see working-class Brexit voters having their wages undercut by immigrants, and these were the people who voted Boris in 2019. But actually stuff 'em. It's the market at work, and there's no room for sentimentality in a global economy.
Let’s be straight and honest here. What Hunt has put in his budget today is let’s give Albanians jobs in our building industry. If we didn’t Brexit they would already be in the jobs.
Albania is not in the EU, so there was not then, nor would there be now, freedom of movement for Albanians.
I didn’t say there was. They would already be here simply because Albanians are the master builders in Europe right now, and our building industry would have gone out and got them, but have been held back by the Boris government. That’s changing now under Hunt. Mark my words, you can’t argue with me, this is fact, Hunts budget has green lighted our building industry to go and get those Albanians. The Albanians are coming.
We have a deficit in concrete mushroom building?
Laugh if you want. The Albanian builders have spent years in other country’s honing their craft - they are skilled, fast,, and have been aware for years our building industry want them here ASAP.
Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.
Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
Will that help?
Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.
It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:
Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484. How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data. Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months, Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)
Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.
Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.
I quite like Hunt, a sensible guy compared to what has gone before but surely that's how the opposition parties will spin it. Tax cuts for those that have well over a million to put into their pension pots.
Not a few of those in the public sector....
What is the significance of that?
Makes it more difficult for Labour to say it is just private sector "fat cats" benefitting.
Deep in Budget red book, govt adds construction workers to “shortage occupation list” making it easier for firms to bring in foreign workers. Just the start. Govt promises firms will have “access to skills and talent from abroad where needed”
I think we're slowly heading for another banking crash in Europe. I don't understand why they didn't use the last decade to do the same thing as we did and force the banks to hold a lot more capital and reduce their balance sheet sizes. I feel like they got so caught up in attempting to be competitive with the City and attempting to make the City less competitive they forgot to properly regulate their sector.
Did you get the email from Larry Fink?
The chairman of the world’s largest asset manager has warned of the threat of a “slow-rolling” financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank as investors sold off shares in the embattled lender Credit Suisse.
Larry Fink, the chairman of BlackRock, said in a letter to investors that the environment of rapidly rising interest rates had historically “led to spectacular financial flameouts” which could repeat after the collapse of the US technology lender SVB last week and Sovereign Bank over the weekend.
“We don’t know yet whether the consequences of easy money and regulatory changes will cascade throughout the US regional banking sector . . . with more seizures and shutdowns coming,” he said.
There will be 6.7m higher rate taxpayers in 27/28. That can't be an extra 9.8m!!!!
You just want the figures in the final column for the change in year 6.
Doesn't it mean "higher rate that present"?
No - it's the total number of taxpayers, higher rate taxpayers (40% band) and additional rate taxpayers (45% band) - in each year, with and without freezing PAs.
Which is why TSE can't add the differences in each of the 6 years together. Which is surely obvious when you look at the numbers.
I think we're slowly heading for another banking crash in Europe. I don't understand why they didn't use the last decade to do the same thing as we did and force the banks to hold a lot more capital and reduce their balance sheet sizes. I feel like they got so caught up in attempting to be competitive with the City and attempting to make the City less competitive they forgot to properly regulate their sector.
What's going to be really tough in Europe is the existence of the BRRD, if a major bank fails in Europe the BRRD will enforce the €100k insurance limit and prevent a depositor bail out by the state. If I had significant money in any European bank I'd be looking to get all but €100k out of the EU and into the UK asap.
I'm sure we will be told any European banking crash is down to Brexit.
Of course it is.
If it wasn’t for Brexit the EU wouldn’t have been so focused on destroying the City and might have listened to our advice on how to regulate the financial services industry
Deep in Budget red book, govt adds construction workers to “shortage occupation list” making it easier for firms to bring in foreign workers. Just the start. Govt promises firms will have “access to skills and talent from abroad where needed”
Hmm. Problematic. This is one of the very sectors that we were told would be reaping huge pay rises now that competition from cheap foreign labour has been obliterated.
Not problematic at all just bloody sensible. It’s a drag on economy and growth business crying out for skills they can’t get is holding our country back.
It’s important to have growth and an economy as it pays for all our bills! The best in the business of building trade support right now are Albanians, they built the Balkans. And so many already here, so wont have to pay travel over cost.
I was thinking problematic because it would see working-class Brexit voters having their wages undercut by immigrants, and these were the people who voted Boris in 2019. But actually stuff 'em. It's the market at work, and there's no room for sentimentality in a global economy.
Let’s be straight and honest here. What Hunt has put in his budget today is let’s give Albanians jobs in our building industry. If we didn’t Brexit they would already be in the jobs.
Albania is not in the EU, so there was not then, nor would there be now, freedom of movement for Albanians.
I didn’t say there was.
"If we didn’t Brexit they would already be in the jobs."
Following Brexit our Boris government pulled up a drawbridge in a way that was nothing to do with Brexit is the truth. The Alabanians now coming could already have been here but for how the government behaved post Brexit. You have to ask them why they have starved British business of importing skills and semi skills for as long as up to Hunts budget today - but if you say the policy wasn’t paired with the fact we brexited you will have people laughing in your face.
Though for a significant slice of the electorate, pulling up the drawbridge (Britain is full) was the point of Brexit. Whereas, as Jame Kirkup points out,
The entire Budget rests on an OBR assumption that net migration is going to average 245k per year, even higher than the 205k assumed in November.
All the announcements that Jeremy Hunt just delighted Tory MPs with is based on higher immigration.
He's definitely saving up for a big pre-election giveaway. The government just have to hope there's no major revenue hitting event happening between now and then
Having another on top of Covid and Ukraine buggering up energy prices in the one Parliament would be cruel luck indeed...
Is it really possible that the huge recapitalisation of the banks , post-2008 , hasn't been enough, or are we just looking at a little local difficulty , in relative terms and at the moment , as most are suggesting ?
Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.
Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
Will that help?
Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.
It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:
Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484. How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data. Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months, Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)
Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.
Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.
One of the issues with 'potholes' is that the sorts of repairs a contractor (or the local council) will do will never be able to last more than a year or so. Potholes often (but of course not always) develop where heavy vehicles are turning. The sorts of repairs that are done to 'fix potholes' are insufficient to prevent a re-occurrence almost immediately. What actually needs to happen is that the entire road surface is removed including the lower tarmac sections (roads are generally built of two or three layers of different grades of tarmac based on the stone size) and the whole thing is resurfaced. But this is a much bigger job and of course both more disruptive and more costly.
Re: construction industry, don't know about situation in UK, but in Seattle, overwhelming majority of workers of low-to-middling skill level are Latinos, clearly including plenty of recent immigrants.
With average White guys, plus fair number of Russian/Ukrainian immigrants (hard rest of us to tell the difference, without flag pin) dominating the skilled building trades.
Am guessing this situation is NOT limited to Seattle or Pacific NW but is pretty much nationwide, at least in metropolitan areas.
Deep in Budget red book, govt adds construction workers to “shortage occupation list” making it easier for firms to bring in foreign workers. Just the start. Govt promises firms will have “access to skills and talent from abroad where needed”
Hmm. Problematic. This is one of the very sectors that we were told would be reaping huge pay rises now that competition from cheap foreign labour has been obliterated.
Not problematic at all just bloody sensible. It’s a drag on economy and growth business crying out for skills they can’t get is holding our country back.
It’s important to have growth and an economy as it pays for all our bills! The best in the business of building trade support right now are Albanians, they built the Balkans. And so many already here, so wont have to pay travel over cost.
I was thinking problematic because it would see working-class Brexit voters having their wages undercut by immigrants, and these were the people who voted Boris in 2019. But actually stuff 'em. It's the market at work, and there's no room for sentimentality in a global economy.
Let’s be straight and honest here. What Hunt has put in his budget today is let’s give Albanians jobs in our building industry. If we didn’t Brexit they would already be in the jobs.
Albania is not in the EU, so there was not then, nor would there be now, freedom of movement for Albanians.
I didn’t say there was.
"If we didn’t Brexit they would already be in the jobs."
Following Brexit our Boris government pulled up a drawbridge in a way that was nothing to do with Brexit is the truth. The Alabanians now coming could already have been here but for how the government behaved post Brexit. You have to ask them why they have starved British business of importing skills and semi skills for as long as up to Hunts budget today - but if you say the policy wasn’t paired with the fact we brexited you will have people laughing in your face.
Though for a significant slice of the electorate, pulling up the drawbridge (Britain is full) was the point of Brexit. Whereas, ad Jame Kirkup points out,
The entire Budget rests on an OBR assumption that net migration is going to average 245k per year, even higher than the 205k assumed in November.
All the announcements that Jeremy Hunt just delighted Tory MPs with is based on higher immigration.
It looks like the right thing to do, but it's not what Mike Redwall, one-term MP for Smalltown North, came into politics to do.
I am not of the Red Wall, but it's not just raw numbers that matter in terms of the public exprience. I think the average punter can tell the difference between a Kenyan engineer and a Romanian big issue seller.
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
Yes, but it still doesn't look like it's enough, does it.
Let's have a look at Europe's 10 largest banks by market cap, and their share price moves year to date:
Do you notice anything?
(1) Even after a torrid day today and the collapse of SVB, there are no particularly big down moves. (Indeed, quite a few of the names are actually up YTD)
(2) There is no evidence that the UK is outperforming the rest of Europe.
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
The issue is though there isnt the scope for the fed and ecb to agressively loosen monetary policy in response to a crisis this time as there was in 2008. Also govt balance sheets are now much worse with much higher debt to gdp ratios.
Actually, I think that's bullshit too.
Real debt loads - once you take away debt that is owed to countries' own Central Banks - aren't that high.
If you don't pay interest on debt, and you never have to pay it back, is it really debt?
Because that is the situation of most of the QE debt in the world. Central banks will continue to remit interest back to Governments, and debt will be perpetually rolled over. In other words, QE debt (which will never be repaid) simply should not be included in government debt-to-GDP calculations.
Is it really possible that the huge recapitalisation of the banks , post-2008 , hasn't been enough, or are we just looking at a little local difficulty , in relative terms, at the moment ?
At the moment these are early tremors equivalent likely to when bear stearns got in trouble in 2008.
Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.
Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
Will that help?
Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.
It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:
Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484. How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data. Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months, Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)
Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.
Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.
Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.
Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
Will that help?
Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.
It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:
Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484. How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data. Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months, Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)
Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.
Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.
One of the issues with 'potholes' is that the sorts of repairs a contractor (or the local council) will do will never be able to last more than a year or so. Potholes often (but of course not always) develop where heavy vehicles are turning. The sorts of repairs that are done to 'fix potholes' are insufficient to prevent a re-occurrence almost immediately. What actually needs to happen is that the entire road surface is removed including the lower tarmac sections (roads are generally built of two or three layers of different grades of tarmac based on the stone size) and the whole thing is resurfaced. But this is a much bigger job and of course both more disruptive and more costly.
And still not necessarily effective. We have had one significant stretch of road locally that has been removed and resurfaced 3 times in 4 years.
I think we're slowly heading for another banking crash in Europe. I don't understand why they didn't use the last decade to do the same thing as we did and force the banks to hold a lot more capital and reduce their balance sheet sizes. I feel like they got so caught up in attempting to be competitive with the City and attempting to make the City less competitive they forgot to properly regulate their sector.
What's going to be really tough in Europe is the existence of the BRRD, if a major bank fails in Europe the BRRD will enforce the €100k insurance limit and prevent a depositor bail out by the state. If I had significant money in any European bank I'd be looking to get all but €100k out of the EU and into the UK asap.
Yes, but out of the EU there's no regulation to prevent a state bailout of depositors should it come to it as Biden has done in the US. In the EU the rules state that uninsured deposits must be used to bail in banks before the state can intervene. It's a mental policy and the UK objected to it at the time yet they ploughed ahead anyway.
I hadn’t realised CS was only an $8bn company now!
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
Yes, but it still doesn't look like it's enough, does it.
I honestly think if city bankers start begging for bailouts again the public mood will turn very ugly.
I think it would turn uglier if uninsured deposits were used to bail in banks. Far, far worse. I really think it would result in riots.
You're being a little disingenuous Max. As you know the "living wills" of Eurozone banks have a strict order for how people lose their money, and every single other creditor of a bank, including the Central bank itself, the interbank clearing house, counterparties in Repo operations, secured creditors, bond holders, and preferred stock holders, has to lose every single thing before a penny is lost from a depositor.
Now, is it stupid to have unsecured depositors lose money to protect secured ones? Yes it is.
But the circumstances under which it would happen would have to be much worse than 2008, because every single other creditor would have to lose all their money first.
It’s almost as if retail banks have no business being in investment banking
I really do wish RBS and HBOS had been liquidated back in 2008, the government should have bailed out depositors but everyone else involved with those two banks should have been burned. The moral hazard and expectation bailing them out created has been a pox on the country and the wider world.
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
The issue is though there isnt the scope for the fed and ecb to agressively loosen monetary policy in response to a crisis this time as there was in 2008. Also govt balance sheets are now much worse with much higher debt to gdp ratios.
Actually, I think that's bullshit too.
Real debt loads - once you take away debt that is owed to countries' own Central Banks - aren't that high.
If you don't pay interest on debt, and you never have to pay it back, is it really debt?
Because that is the situation of most of the QE debt in the world. Central banks will continue to remit interest back to Governments, and debt will be perpetually rolled over. In other words, QE debt (which will never be repaid) simply should not be included in government debt-to-GDP calculations.
You dont pay interest on the debt and never have to pay it back lol. The insanity of the last 15 years in one sentence. That ultimately results in hyperinflation and the destruction of the currency. If that was a long term solution why didnt we just solve all our economic problems in the 1970s with qe. Madness. Fantasy economics. and the other problem is the ecb cant lower interest rates this time without letting inflation rip.
Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.
Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
Will that help?
Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.
It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:
Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484. How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data. Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months, Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)
Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.
Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.
One of the issues with 'potholes' is that the sorts of repairs a contractor (or the local council) will do will never be able to last more than a year or so. Potholes often (but of course not always) develop where heavy vehicles are turning. The sorts of repairs that are done to 'fix potholes' are insufficient to prevent a re-occurrence almost immediately. What actually needs to happen is that the entire road surface is removed including the lower tarmac sections (roads are generally built of two or three layers of different grades of tarmac based on the stone size) and the whole thing is resurfaced. But this is a much bigger job and of course both more disruptive and more costly.
Yes - it's about fixing the system. One other aspect is proper control of interventions by third parties - eg service providers digging holes in expensive new surfaces put in the previous day.
What also needs to happen is that traffic laws are enforced to prevent, for example, heavy vehicles going down unsuitable roads by blindly following satnavs.
Plus vehicles esp. HGVs parking on pavements smashing up the surface and the tactile paving which exists to help blind people navigate, creating tri[p hazards which put people in hospital. They know the laws are a mess so they don't give a damn. Quite a bit on Leith Walk in Edinburgh at present, but also everywhere.
Fiscal drag is okay as long as it's not done in front of children.
No! IF we want to get kids more interested in & knowledgeable re: economics, then FISCAL DRAG RACING would be an excellent incentive for many of today's yoot.
Of course one problem is that the Tennessee Legislature would immediately ban such an unholy alliance between drag queens and George Soros.
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
Yes, but it still doesn't look like it's enough, does it.
I honestly think if city bankers start begging for bailouts again the public mood will turn very ugly.
I think it would turn uglier if uninsured deposits were used to bail in banks. Far, far worse. I really think it would result in riots.
You're being a little disingenuous Max. As you know the "living wills" of Eurozone banks have a strict order for how people lose their money, and every single other creditor of a bank, including the Central bank itself, the interbank clearing house, counterparties in Repo operations, secured creditors, bond holders, and preferred stock holders, has to lose every single thing before a penny is lost from a depositor.
Now, is it stupid to have unsecured depositors lose money to protect secured ones? Yes it is.
But the circumstances under which it would happen would have to be much worse than 2008, because every single other creditor would have to lose all their money first.
In a scenario like 2008 where AAA assets were actually just dog shit wrapped in cat shit sprinkled with glitter from poundland all of those creditors would be fucked too along with uninsured depositors. I don't know if that's where we're heading at the moment but I'd be looking to pull any uninsured money out of an EU bank if I had any and stick it into HSBC.
1. What's positive in the budget for those on average or below average incomes unless they happen to have kids currently under the age of two, or intend to start a family shortly? Fuck all, as far as I can see.
2. How does the government square all this grandiose talk of investment and growth with the decision, just this week, to scale back HS2 and put much of it on the backburner? Surely a government desperate for growth would have done the opposite - accelerated the project?
I think we're slowly heading for another banking crash in Europe. I don't understand why they didn't use the last decade to do the same thing as we did and force the banks to hold a lot more capital and reduce their balance sheet sizes. I feel like they got so caught up in attempting to be competitive with the City and attempting to make the City less competitive they forgot to properly regulate their sector.
What's going to be really tough in Europe is the existence of the BRRD, if a major bank fails in Europe the BRRD will enforce the €100k insurance limit and prevent a depositor bail out by the state. If I had significant money in any European bank I'd be looking to get all but €100k out of the EU and into the UK asap.
Yes, but out of the EU there's no regulation to prevent a state bailout of depositors should it come to it as Biden has done in the US. In the EU the rules state that uninsured deposits must be used to bail in banks before the state can intervene. It's a mental policy and the UK objected to it at the time yet they ploughed ahead anyway.
I hadn’t realised CS was only an $8bn company now!
It's worth noting that Switzerland (while rich) is not a big country, especially relative to the size of its banking assets.
Would the Swiss Central Bank step in to rescue Credit Suisse?
Fiscal drag is okay as long as it's not done in front of children.
No! IF we want to get kids more interested in & knowledgeable re: economics, then FISCAL DRAG RACING would be an excellent incentive for many of today's yoot.
Of course one problem is that the Tennessee Legislature would immediately ban such an unholy alliance between drag queens and George Soros.
What about a Quadruple Lock - add income tax thresholds?
Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.
Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
Will that help?
Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.
It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:
Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484. How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data. Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months, Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)
Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.
Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.
One of the issues with 'potholes' is that the sorts of repairs a contractor (or the local council) will do will never be able to last more than a year or so. Potholes often (but of course not always) develop where heavy vehicles are turning. The sorts of repairs that are done to 'fix potholes' are insufficient to prevent a re-occurrence almost immediately. What actually needs to happen is that the entire road surface is removed including the lower tarmac sections (roads are generally built of two or three layers of different grades of tarmac based on the stone size) and the whole thing is resurfaced. But this is a much bigger job and of course both more disruptive and more costly.
Yes - it's about fixing the system. One other aspect is proper control of interventions by third parties - eg service providers digging holes in expensive new surfaces put in the previous day.
What also needs to happen is that traffic laws are enforced to prevent, for example, heavy vehicles going down unsuitable roads by blindly following satnavs.
Plus vehicles esp. HGVs parking on pavements smashing up the surface and the tactile paving which exists to help blind people navigate, creating tri[p hazards which put people in hospital. They know the laws are a mess so they don't give a damn. Quite a bit on Leith Walk in Edinburgh at present, but also everywhere.
On our Devon lanes the problem is the modern mega-tractors, that just trash the tarmac road surface as if it were mud. If we get any hot weather and the surface melts, they can just take large chunks out for many yards.
I think we're slowly heading for another banking crash in Europe. I don't understand why they didn't use the last decade to do the same thing as we did and force the banks to hold a lot more capital and reduce their balance sheet sizes. I feel like they got so caught up in attempting to be competitive with the City and attempting to make the City less competitive they forgot to properly regulate their sector.
What's going to be really tough in Europe is the existence of the BRRD, if a major bank fails in Europe the BRRD will enforce the €100k insurance limit and prevent a depositor bail out by the state. If I had significant money in any European bank I'd be looking to get all but €100k out of the EU and into the UK asap.
Yes, but out of the EU there's no regulation to prevent a state bailout of depositors should it come to it as Biden has done in the US. In the EU the rules state that uninsured deposits must be used to bail in banks before the state can intervene. It's a mental policy and the UK objected to it at the time yet they ploughed ahead anyway.
I hadn’t realised CS was only an $8bn company now!
It's worth noting that Switzerland (while rich) is not a big country, especially relative to the size of its banking assets.
Would the Swiss Central Bank step in to rescue Credit Suisse?
I think they'll rescue depositors but everything else will be burned to the ground.
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
Yes, but it still doesn't look like it's enough, does it.
I honestly think if city bankers start begging for bailouts again the public mood will turn very ugly.
I think it would turn uglier if uninsured deposits were used to bail in banks. Far, far worse. I really think it would result in riots.
It’s almost as if retail banks have no business being in investment banking
I really do wish RBS and HBOS had been liquidated back in 2008, the government should have bailed out depositors but everyone else involved with those two banks should have been burned. The moral hazard and expectation bailing them out created has been a pox on the country and the wider world.
I honestly think they should have let the whole thing collapse in 2008. Yes there would have been mass unemployment for a while but the advantages. 1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now. 2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off. 3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality. 4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.
Fiscal drag is okay as long as it's not done in front of children.
No! IF we want to get kids more interested in & knowledgeable re: economics, then FISCAL DRAG RACING would be an excellent incentive for many of today's yoot.
Of course one problem is that the Tennessee Legislature would immediately ban such an unholy alliance between drag queens and George Soros.
What about a Quadruple Lock - add income tax thresholds?
Somehow I doubt, that you are attuned to what appeals to the overgrown rug rats of the Reeking '20s?
Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.
Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
Will that help?
Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.
It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:
Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484. How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data. Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months, Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)
Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.
Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.
One of the issues with 'potholes' is that the sorts of repairs a contractor (or the local council) will do will never be able to last more than a year or so. Potholes often (but of course not always) develop where heavy vehicles are turning. The sorts of repairs that are done to 'fix potholes' are insufficient to prevent a re-occurrence almost immediately. What actually needs to happen is that the entire road surface is removed including the lower tarmac sections (roads are generally built of two or three layers of different grades of tarmac based on the stone size) and the whole thing is resurfaced. But this is a much bigger job and of course both more disruptive and more costly.
Yes - it's about fixing the system. One other aspect is proper control of interventions by third parties - eg service providers digging holes in expensive new surfaces put in the previous day.
What also needs to happen is that traffic laws are enforced to prevent, for example, heavy vehicles going down unsuitable roads by blindly following satnavs.
Plus vehicles esp. HGVs parking on pavements smashing up the surface and the tactile paving which exists to help blind people navigate, creating tri[p hazards which put people in hospital. They know the laws are a mess so they don't give a damn. Quite a bit on Leith Walk in Edinburgh at present, but also everywhere.
On our Devon lanes the problem is the modern mega-tractors, that just trash the tarmac road surface as if it were mud. If we get any hot weather and the surface melts, they can just take large chunks out for many yards.
Yeah. Road wear is related to the 4th power of axle weight.
1 big tractor driving past is equivalent to about 10,000 cars.
Deep in Budget red book, govt adds construction workers to “shortage occupation list” making it easier for firms to bring in foreign workers. Just the start. Govt promises firms will have “access to skills and talent from abroad where needed”
Hmm. Problematic. This is one of the very sectors that we were told would be reaping huge pay rises now that competition from cheap foreign labour has been obliterated.
Not problematic at all just bloody sensible. It’s a drag on economy and growth business crying out for skills they can’t get is holding our country back.
It’s important to have growth and an economy as it pays for all our bills! The best in the business of building trade support right now are Albanians, they built the Balkans. And so many already here, so wont have to pay travel over cost.
I was thinking problematic because it would see working-class Brexit voters having their wages undercut by immigrants, and these were the people who voted Boris in 2019. But actually stuff 'em. It's the market at work, and there's no room for sentimentality in a global economy.
Let’s be straight and honest here. What Hunt has put in his budget today is let’s give Albanians jobs in our building industry. If we didn’t Brexit they would already be in the jobs.
Albania is not in the EU, so there was not then, nor would there be now, freedom of movement for Albanians.
I didn’t say there was.
"If we didn’t Brexit they would already be in the jobs."
Following Brexit our Boris government pulled up a drawbridge in a way that was nothing to do with Brexit is the truth. The Alabanians now coming could already have been here but for how the government behaved post Brexit. You have to ask them why they have starved British business of importing skills and semi skills for as long as up to Hunts budget today - but if you say the policy wasn’t paired with the fact we brexited you will have people laughing in your face.
Though for a significant slice of the electorate, pulling up the drawbridge (Britain is full) was the point of Brexit. Whereas, as Jame Kirkup points out,
The entire Budget rests on an OBR assumption that net migration is going to average 245k per year, even higher than the 205k assumed in November.
All the announcements that Jeremy Hunt just delighted Tory MPs with is based on higher immigration.
It looks like the right thing to do, but it's not what Mike Redwall, one-term MP for Smalltown North, came into politics to do.
It’s the right thing to do. Yes. At the end of the day you need an economy, you need growth, becuase you got bills to pay. 🤷♀️
We have expensive welfare and public services tastes in this country. What was Boris and his Mike Redwall support actually thinking? The numbers never added up.
I think Boris was eased out and replaced by Rishi and Hunt because of this - Tory grandees could see the brain dead economic policy would wreck UK.
It’s almost as if retail banks have no business being in investment banking
I really do wish RBS and HBOS had been liquidated back in 2008, the government should have bailed out depositors but everyone else involved with those two banks should have been burned. The moral hazard and expectation bailing them out created has been a pox on the country and the wider world.
I honestly think they should have let the whole thing collapse in 2008. Yes there would have been mass unemployment for a while but the advantages. 1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now. 2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off. 3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality. 4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.
Just that risk of societal meltdown though. Best not to flirt with that on balance.
Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.
Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
Will that help?
Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.
It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:
Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484. How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data. Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months, Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)
Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.
Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.
One of the issues with 'potholes' is that the sorts of repairs a contractor (or the local council) will do will never be able to last more than a year or so. Potholes often (but of course not always) develop where heavy vehicles are turning. The sorts of repairs that are done to 'fix potholes' are insufficient to prevent a re-occurrence almost immediately. What actually needs to happen is that the entire road surface is removed including the lower tarmac sections (roads are generally built of two or three layers of different grades of tarmac based on the stone size) and the whole thing is resurfaced. But this is a much bigger job and of course both more disruptive and more costly.
Yes - it's about fixing the system. One other aspect is proper control of interventions by third parties - eg service providers digging holes in expensive new surfaces put in the previous day.
What also needs to happen is that traffic laws are enforced to prevent, for example, heavy vehicles going down unsuitable roads by blindly following satnavs.
Plus vehicles esp. HGVs parking on pavements smashing up the surface and the tactile paving which exists to help blind people navigate, creating tri[p hazards which put people in hospital. They know the laws are a mess so they don't give a damn. Quite a bit on Leith Walk in Edinburgh at present, but also everywhere.
On our Devon lanes the problem is the modern mega-tractors, that just trash the tarmac road surface as if it were mud. If we get any hot weather and the surface melts, they can just take large chunks out for many yards.
Sounds like remarkably crap road surface. So why is that?
Number of years ago, WA State Dept of Transportation "experimented" with using a new road surfacing material comprised largely of recycled tires. Was NOT a success, for just the reason that you cite re: Devon.
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
Yes, but it still doesn't look like it's enough, does it.
I honestly think if city bankers start begging for bailouts again the public mood will turn very ugly.
I think it would turn uglier if uninsured deposits were used to bail in banks. Far, far worse. I really think it would result in riots.
You're being a little disingenuous Max. As you know the "living wills" of Eurozone banks have a strict order for how people lose their money, and every single other creditor of a bank, including the Central bank itself, the interbank clearing house, counterparties in Repo operations, secured creditors, bond holders, and preferred stock holders, has to lose every single thing before a penny is lost from a depositor.
Now, is it stupid to have unsecured depositors lose money to protect secured ones? Yes it is.
But the circumstances under which it would happen would have to be much worse than 2008, because every single other creditor would have to lose all their money first.
In a scenario like 2008 where AAA assets were actually just dog shit wrapped in cat shit sprinkled with glitter from poundland all of those creditors would be fucked too along with uninsured depositors. I don't know if that's where we're heading at the moment but I'd be looking to pull any uninsured money out of an EU bank if I had any and stick it into HSBC.
Well: if you had money in the UK branch of an EU bank, then you would be under the UK regulatory framework, not the EU one anyway. There would be no way for your money to be stripped from you.
Remember, banks report consolidated numbers, but they are a collection of locally regulated entities that each have capital surpluses. Moving that capital around is hard: your Estonian subsidiaries might have tier one equity of 35%, but it's often extremely difficult to get that money out to your French subsidiary with tier one equity of 5%.
And that's why HSBC in not as well capitalised as it appears. HSBC is the most global bank in the world, with operations spanning the globe. A consolidated number of 14.2% include lots of countries with operations with tier one equity above 20 or 25%; but it's also going to include those with less than 10%. If bad times come, then they won't be able to get money out of their well capitalized subsidiaries, they will need to raise capital at the parent to pipe down into the less well capitalized subsidiaries.
It’s almost as if retail banks have no business being in investment banking
I really do wish RBS and HBOS had been liquidated back in 2008, the government should have bailed out depositors but everyone else involved with those two banks should have been burned. The moral hazard and expectation bailing them out created has been a pox on the country and the wider world.
I honestly think they should have let the whole thing collapse in 2008. Yes there would have been mass unemployment for a while but the advantages. 1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now. 2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off. 3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality. 4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.
Yeah, but that would have deprived Gordon Brown of being able to say that he saved the world.
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
The issue is though there isnt the scope for the fed and ecb to agressively loosen monetary policy in response to a crisis this time as there was in 2008. Also govt balance sheets are now much worse with much higher debt to gdp ratios.
Actually, I think that's bullshit too.
Real debt loads - once you take away debt that is owed to countries' own Central Banks - aren't that high.
If you don't pay interest on debt, and you never have to pay it back, is it really debt?
Because that is the situation of most of the QE debt in the world. Central banks will continue to remit interest back to Governments, and debt will be perpetually rolled over. In other words, QE debt (which will never be repaid) simply should not be included in government debt-to-GDP calculations.
You dont pay interest on the debt and never have to pay it back lol. The insanity of the last 15 years in one sentence. That ultimately results in hyperinflation and the destruction of the currency. If that was a long term solution why didnt we just solve all our economic problems in the 1970s with qe. Madness. Fantasy economics. and the other problem is the ecb cant lower interest rates this time without letting inflation rip.
Yes, it will inevitably lead to hyperinflation.
Because printing more money is always easier than the alternative.
But the inevitability might be a long time away. Japan's Central Bank owns government debt equivalent to about 150% of GDP. More than two thirds of all the debt raised by the government is bought by the JCB.
And yet they haven't (yet) got hyperinflation. In fact, inflation there is de minimus.
Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.
Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
Will that help?
Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.
It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:
Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484. How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data. Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months, Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)
Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.
Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.
One of the issues with 'potholes' is that the sorts of repairs a contractor (or the local council) will do will never be able to last more than a year or so. Potholes often (but of course not always) develop where heavy vehicles are turning. The sorts of repairs that are done to 'fix potholes' are insufficient to prevent a re-occurrence almost immediately. What actually needs to happen is that the entire road surface is removed including the lower tarmac sections (roads are generally built of two or three layers of different grades of tarmac based on the stone size) and the whole thing is resurfaced. But this is a much bigger job and of course both more disruptive and more costly.
Yes - it's about fixing the system. One other aspect is proper control of interventions by third parties - eg service providers digging holes in expensive new surfaces put in the previous day.
What also needs to happen is that traffic laws are enforced to prevent, for example, heavy vehicles going down unsuitable roads by blindly following satnavs.
Plus vehicles esp. HGVs parking on pavements smashing up the surface and the tactile paving which exists to help blind people navigate, creating tri[p hazards which put people in hospital. They know the laws are a mess so they don't give a damn. Quite a bit on Leith Walk in Edinburgh at present, but also everywhere.
On our Devon lanes the problem is the modern mega-tractors, that just trash the tarmac road surface as if it were mud. If we get any hot weather and the surface melts, they can just take large chunks out for many yards.
Sounds like remarkably crap road surface. So why is that?
Number of years ago, WA State Dept of Transportation "experimented" with using a new road surfacing material comprised largely of recycled tires. Was NOT a success, for just the reason that you cite re: Devon.
The surface seems to have done the job until very recently. The lanes are too tight for HGVs, so they haven't really been too stressed by vehicles. I think it is just the emergence of a new generation of very large agricultural kit - both tractors and trailers - that can pull heavier loads - and that the roads are finally breaking under this new level of weight.
It’s almost as if retail banks have no business being in investment banking
I really do wish RBS and HBOS had been liquidated back in 2008, the government should have bailed out depositors but everyone else involved with those two banks should have been burned. The moral hazard and expectation bailing them out created has been a pox on the country and the wider world.
I honestly think they should have let the whole thing collapse in 2008. Yes there would have been mass unemployment for a while but the advantages. 1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now. 2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off. 3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality. 4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.
Just that risk of societal meltdown though. Best not to flirt with that on balance.
Not really. It would be the privileged class who would lose the most and they are generally the type not to riot. Yes there would be unemployment but things would quickly readjust.
Correction: "DisCredit Suisse" Or "discréditer Suisse"?
Debit Suisse
Would you rather have a Credit Suisse debit card, or a Debit Suisse credit card?
Or alternatively, a sock full of nickels?
Could I swap for something viable and secure?
Like a share of three way deal involving Mexican drug cartels, stolen plutonium and a complete list of all CIA agents?
Sock full of nickels (worth at least $10 and also useful as a cudgel, door stop or paperweight) is FAR more viable and secure investment than your dream portfolio!
Though you COULD do as you suggest, but also keep the nickel-filled sock handy for self-defense, for when your investment "partners" show up to "audit" your "accounts".
I was slightly taken aback to hear Hunty mentioning the Cloddach Bridge in his budget speech and that it’s getting £1.5m. Imagine my surprise when I discovered it’s in Douglas Ross’s constituency!
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
The issue is though there isnt the scope for the fed and ecb to agressively loosen monetary policy in response to a crisis this time as there was in 2008. Also govt balance sheets are now much worse with much higher debt to gdp ratios.
Actually, I think that's bullshit too.
Real debt loads - once you take away debt that is owed to countries' own Central Banks - aren't that high.
If you don't pay interest on debt, and you never have to pay it back, is it really debt?
Because that is the situation of most of the QE debt in the world. Central banks will continue to remit interest back to Governments, and debt will be perpetually rolled over. In other words, QE debt (which will never be repaid) simply should not be included in government debt-to-GDP calculations.
I’m not really an expert so happy to be challenged on this, but on the face of it your comment looks like ‘debt to gdp ratios are so bad we can’t possibly borrow more for, say, proper investment in our education system…oh but the banks have fucked up again? Those debt to gdp ratios aren’t really a problem after all!’
Not directing this at you personally, what you say makes sense, but the fact that it hasn’t been said until bankers potentially need bailing out again…really stinks.
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
The issue is though there isnt the scope for the fed and ecb to agressively loosen monetary policy in response to a crisis this time as there was in 2008. Also govt balance sheets are now much worse with much higher debt to gdp ratios.
Actually, I think that's bullshit too.
Real debt loads - once you take away debt that is owed to countries' own Central Banks - aren't that high.
If you don't pay interest on debt, and you never have to pay it back, is it really debt?
Because that is the situation of most of the QE debt in the world. Central banks will continue to remit interest back to Governments, and debt will be perpetually rolled over. In other words, QE debt (which will never be repaid) simply should not be included in government debt-to-GDP calculations.
You dont pay interest on the debt and never have to pay it back lol. The insanity of the last 15 years in one sentence. That ultimately results in hyperinflation and the destruction of the currency. If that was a long term solution why didnt we just solve all our economic problems in the 1970s with qe. Madness. Fantasy economics. and the other problem is the ecb cant lower interest rates this time without letting inflation rip.
Yes, it will inevitably lead to hyperinflation.
Because printing more money is always easier than the alternative.
But the inevitability might be a long time away. Japan's Central Bank owns government debt equivalent to about 150% of GDP. More than two thirds of all the debt raised by the government is bought by the JCB.
And yet they haven't (yet) got hyperinflation. In fact, inflation there is de minimus.
yes we have inflation of 8 to 10% in many western economies. Not hyperinflation but a doubling from here and we have serious problems.
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
The issue is though there isnt the scope for the fed and ecb to agressively loosen monetary policy in response to a crisis this time as there was in 2008. Also govt balance sheets are now much worse with much higher debt to gdp ratios.
Actually, I think that's bullshit too.
Real debt loads - once you take away debt that is owed to countries' own Central Banks - aren't that high.
If you don't pay interest on debt, and you never have to pay it back, is it really debt?
Because that is the situation of most of the QE debt in the world. Central banks will continue to remit interest back to Governments, and debt will be perpetually rolled over. In other words, QE debt (which will never be repaid) simply should not be included in government debt-to-GDP calculations.
You saying there is such a thing as a magic money tree?
I don’t agree because I understand The inflationary Aspects of all the money printing got stored up in the housing market and stock market, inflating them for a future correction, that will come.
Much of this printed inflationary money was invested in stocks. Although different asset classes are affected differently by it, QE increased demand for bonds and created money to be invested in stocks with idea to hedge the trade and lock in profit. But the hedge might not always be perfect if prices go into correction, you may have to bail out and far worse if you were greedy and didn’t hedge.
I think we should expect a market correction. It depends how sensible the hedges are whether it’s just correction or blood bath.
Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.
Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
Will that help?
Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.
It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:
Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484. How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data. Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months, Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)
Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.
Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.
One of the issues with 'potholes' is that the sorts of repairs a contractor (or the local council) will do will never be able to last more than a year or so. Potholes often (but of course not always) develop where heavy vehicles are turning. The sorts of repairs that are done to 'fix potholes' are insufficient to prevent a re-occurrence almost immediately. What actually needs to happen is that the entire road surface is removed including the lower tarmac sections (roads are generally built of two or three layers of different grades of tarmac based on the stone size) and the whole thing is resurfaced. But this is a much bigger job and of course both more disruptive and more costly.
Yes - it's about fixing the system. One other aspect is proper control of interventions by third parties - eg service providers digging holes in expensive new surfaces put in the previous day.
What also needs to happen is that traffic laws are enforced to prevent, for example, heavy vehicles going down unsuitable roads by blindly following satnavs.
Plus vehicles esp. HGVs parking on pavements smashing up the surface and the tactile paving which exists to help blind people navigate, creating tri[p hazards which put people in hospital. They know the laws are a mess so they don't give a damn. Quite a bit on Leith Walk in Edinburgh at present, but also everywhere.
On our Devon lanes the problem is the modern mega-tractors, that just trash the tarmac road surface as if it were mud. If we get any hot weather and the surface melts, they can just take large chunks out for many yards.
Sounds like remarkably crap road surface. So why is that?
Number of years ago, WA State Dept of Transportation "experimented" with using a new road surfacing material comprised largely of recycled tires. Was NOT a success, for just the reason that you cite re: Devon.
The surface seems to have done the job until very recently. The lanes are too tight for HGVs, so they haven't really been too stressed by vehicles. I think it is just the emergence of a new generation of very large agricultural kit - both tractors and trailers - that can pull heavier loads - and that the roads are finally breaking under this new level of weight.
And then the repairs aren't able to cope either.
Damage proportional to the fourth power of the load is almost as incomprehensible as exponential growth. Something a little bit heavier is a lot more damaging, but we can't really grock that. Two conseqences;
1 The cost of maintaining bike lanes is pretty tiny.
2 The externalities of really big vehicles (or even going from small cars to Chelsea tractors) is more than we might think.
I was slightly taken aback to hear Hunty mentioning the Cloddach Bridge in his budget speech and that it’s getting £1.5m. Imagine my surprise when I discovered it’s in Douglas Ross’s constituency!
And in a SCUP local authority. Jings! Also open to foot and bike, and only 6 miles diversion for cars. Seems an odd choice.
European banks are *massively* better capitalized than they were 15 years ago. The total value of outstanding loans across the Eurozone is down about 40% (which is a massive contraction in aggregate money supply which has had very negative impacts on growth), while tier one equity has more than doubled.
Now, there are still some European banks that have enormous issues (cough *Deutsche* cough), but the French, Irish, Dutch, and Spanish banks literally look nothing like they did back in 2008, while even the Italian and Germans look better.
The issue is though there isnt the scope for the fed and ecb to agressively loosen monetary policy in response to a crisis this time as there was in 2008. Also govt balance sheets are now much worse with much higher debt to gdp ratios.
Actually, I think that's bullshit too.
Real debt loads - once you take away debt that is owed to countries' own Central Banks - aren't that high.
If you don't pay interest on debt, and you never have to pay it back, is it really debt?
Because that is the situation of most of the QE debt in the world. Central banks will continue to remit interest back to Governments, and debt will be perpetually rolled over. In other words, QE debt (which will never be repaid) simply should not be included in government debt-to-GDP calculations.
I’m not really an expert so happy to be challenged on this, but on the face of it your comment looks like ‘debt to gdp ratios are so bad we can’t possibly borrow more for, say, proper investment in our education system…oh but the banks have fucked up again? Those debt to gdp ratios aren’t really a problem after all!’
Not directing this at you personally, what you say makes sense, but the fact that it hasn’t been said until bankers potentially need bailing out again…really stinks.
Exactly my point. If we can just magic up qe money at no cost why dont we double the spending on the nhs. What an improvement to our lives that would bring. Oh but we cant you see our debt is too high. The bankers need bailing out again, oh lets magic up some more qe money debt to gdp isnt a problem.
Re: construction industry, don't know about situation in UK, but in Seattle, overwhelming majority of workers of low-to-middling skill level are Latinos, clearly including plenty of recent immigrants.
With average White guys, plus fair number of Russian/Ukrainian immigrants (hard rest of us to tell the difference, without flag pin) dominating the skilled building trades.
Am guessing this situation is NOT limited to Seattle or Pacific NW but is pretty much nationwide, at least in metropolitan areas.
It's still mostly native Brits working on construction over here as far as I can tell.
Off topic? One of our local news ladies referred to SVB as "Silicone Valley Bank". Reminding me that not all news folks know what they are talking about or, more kindly, that we all make mistakes.
Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.
Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
Will that help?
Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.
It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:
Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484. How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data. How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data. Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months, Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)
Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.
Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.
One of the issues with 'potholes' is that the sorts of repairs a contractor (or the local council) will do will never be able to last more than a year or so. Potholes often (but of course not always) develop where heavy vehicles are turning. The sorts of repairs that are done to 'fix potholes' are insufficient to prevent a re-occurrence almost immediately. What actually needs to happen is that the entire road surface is removed including the lower tarmac sections (roads are generally built of two or three layers of different grades of tarmac based on the stone size) and the whole thing is resurfaced. But this is a much bigger job and of course both more disruptive and more costly.
Yes - it's about fixing the system. One other aspect is proper control of interventions by third parties - eg service providers digging holes in expensive new surfaces put in the previous day.
What also needs to happen is that traffic laws are enforced to prevent, for example, heavy vehicles going down unsuitable roads by blindly following satnavs.
Plus vehicles esp. HGVs parking on pavements smashing up the surface and the tactile paving which exists to help blind people navigate, creating tri[p hazards which put people in hospital. They know the laws are a mess so they don't give a damn. Quite a bit on Leith Walk in Edinburgh at present, but also everywhere.
On our Devon lanes the problem is the modern mega-tractors, that just trash the tarmac road surface as if it were mud. If we get any hot weather and the surface melts, they can just take large chunks out for many yards.
Sounds like remarkably crap road surface. So why is that?
Number of years ago, WA State Dept of Transportation "experimented" with using a new road surfacing material comprised largely of recycled tires. Was NOT a success, for just the reason that you cite re: Devon.
The surface seems to have done the job until very recently. The lanes are too tight for HGVs, so they haven't really been too stressed by vehicles. I think it is just the emergence of a new generation of very large agricultural kit - both tractors and trailers - that can pull heavier loads - and that the roads are finally breaking under this new level of weight.
And then the repairs aren't able to cope either.
Is there also more hot weather, either in higher temps or more hot days?
Not unheard of in USA, for road tarmac to get, let's say squishy, during heat waves, which we get more frequently than UK, even in northern states.
But generally NOT an issue, even in Hot Coffee, Mississippi during dog days of summer. Which can seem to last from April to October!
Cross country now! A spin on a steeplechase from 200 years ago!
“So as we move away from the Jolly Rancher, Mywifeknowseverything as we approach the Duck Pond… Slack Sally has gone down there at the Kissing Gate…as we make our way on to Mrs Miggins Flower Garden, Sotallytober from The Geespot” 🤭
I think we're slowly heading for another banking crash in Europe. I don't understand why they didn't use the last decade to do the same thing as we did and force the banks to hold a lot more capital and reduce their balance sheet sizes. I feel like they got so caught up in attempting to be competitive with the City and attempting to make the City less competitive they forgot to properly regulate their sector.
What's going to be really tough in Europe is the existence of the BRRD, if a major bank fails in Europe the BRRD will enforce the €100k insurance limit and prevent a depositor bail out by the state. If I had significant money in any European bank I'd be looking to get all but €100k out of the EU and into the UK asap.
Yes, but out of the EU there's no regulation to prevent a state bailout of depositors should it come to it as Biden has done in the US. In the EU the rules state that uninsured deposits must be used to bail in banks before the state can intervene. It's a mental policy and the UK objected to it at the time yet they ploughed ahead anyway.
I hadn’t realised CS was only an $8bn company now!
It's worth noting that Switzerland (while rich) is not a big country, especially relative to the size of its banking assets.
Would the Swiss Central Bank step in to rescue Credit Suisse?
I think they'll rescue depositors but everything else will be burned to the ground.
Which is exactly what should be done, and what the Icelandic government did.
Comments
Democrats have a net negative view of evangelical Christians and more narrowly Roman Catholics, Republicans a net positive view of them. Democrats have a net positive view of atheists and Muslims however, Republicans a net negative view of them
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2023/03/15/americans-feel-more-positive-than-negative-about-jews-mainline-protestants-catholics/?utm_content=bufferdc9dd&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer-pew
For the poor dealing with childcare and prepayment meters.
For the affluent dealing with pension cliff edges.
Everyone else gets tax rises and not much else.
https://gwlad.org/en/english-turning-back-the-tide/
Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.
It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
Inflation 10%
Pay 5%
Tax threshold 0%
Is that a pay rise or cut in real terms? It's a double whammy, pay more tax while having pay cut.
And if your 5% pay rise takes you from just below a threshold to just above it, you only pay the higher rate on the small amount that is above it...
There will be 6.7m higher rate taxpayers in 27/28. That can't be an extra 9.8m!!!!
You just want the figures in the final column for the change in year 6.
Indexation is tax neutral in real terms. Non-indexation is a tax rise, no ifs, no buts, no equivocation.
To claim fiscal drag is just taxing people who get a pay rise is just bullshit spread by Gordon Brown and other Chancellors who've attempted it in the past. Sunak at least had the honesty to admit it was a tax rise when he introduced it.
Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484.
How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data.
How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data.
How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data.
Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months,
Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)
Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.
Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.
https://twitter.com/lkchdschh/status/1635682016828989440
Which is why TSE can't add the differences in each of the 6 years together. Which is surely obvious when you look at the numbers.
If it wasn’t for Brexit the EU wouldn’t have been so focused on destroying the City and might have listened to our advice on how to regulate the financial services industry
The entire Budget rests on an OBR assumption that net migration is going to average 245k per year, even higher than the 205k assumed in November.
All the announcements that Jeremy Hunt just delighted Tory MPs with is based on higher immigration.
https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/1635999816982355968
It looks like the right thing to do, but it's not what Mike Redwall, one-term MP for Smalltown North, came into politics to do.
With average White guys, plus fair number of Russian/Ukrainian immigrants (hard rest of us to tell the difference, without flag pin) dominating the skilled building trades.
Am guessing this situation is NOT limited to Seattle or Pacific NW but is pretty much nationwide, at least in metropolitan areas.
Do you notice anything?
(1) Even after a torrid day today and the collapse of SVB, there are no particularly big down moves. (Indeed, quite a few of the names are actually up YTD)
(2) There is no evidence that the UK is outperforming the rest of Europe.
Real debt loads - once you take away debt that is owed to countries' own Central Banks - aren't that high.
If you don't pay interest on debt, and you never have to pay it back, is it really debt?
Because that is the situation of most of the QE debt in the world. Central banks will continue to remit interest back to Governments, and debt will be perpetually rolled over. In other words, QE debt (which will never be repaid) simply should not be included in government debt-to-GDP calculations.
I hadn’t realised CS was only an $8bn company now!
Now, is it stupid to have unsecured depositors lose money to protect secured ones? Yes it is.
But the circumstances under which it would happen would have to be much worse than 2008, because every single other creditor would have to lose all their money first.
and the other problem is the ecb cant lower interest rates this time without letting inflation rip.
What also needs to happen is that traffic laws are enforced to prevent, for example, heavy vehicles going down unsuitable roads by blindly following satnavs.
Plus vehicles esp. HGVs parking on pavements smashing up the surface and the tactile paving which exists to help blind people navigate, creating tri[p hazards which put people in hospital. They know the laws are a mess so they don't give a damn. Quite a bit on Leith Walk in Edinburgh at present, but also everywhere.
Of course one problem is that the Tennessee Legislature would immediately ban such an unholy alliance between drag queens and George Soros.
1. What's positive in the budget for those on average or below average incomes unless they happen to have kids currently under the age of two, or intend to start a family shortly? Fuck all, as far as I can see.
2. How does the government square all this grandiose talk of investment and growth with the decision, just this week, to scale back HS2 and put much of it on the backburner? Surely a government desperate for growth would have done the opposite - accelerated the project?
Would the Swiss Central Bank step in to rescue Credit Suisse?
Or alternatively, a sock full of nickels?
1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now.
2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off.
3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality.
4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.
Like a share of three way deal involving Mexican drug cartels, stolen plutonium and a complete list of all CIA agents?
1 big tractor driving past is equivalent to about 10,000 cars.
We have expensive welfare and public services tastes in this country. What was Boris and his Mike Redwall support actually thinking? The numbers never added up.
I think Boris was eased out and replaced by Rishi and Hunt because of this - Tory grandees could see the brain dead economic policy would wreck UK.
Number of years ago, WA State Dept of Transportation "experimented" with using a new road surfacing material comprised largely of recycled tires. Was NOT a success, for just the reason that you cite re: Devon.
Remember, banks report consolidated numbers, but they are a collection of locally regulated entities that each have capital surpluses. Moving that capital around is hard: your Estonian subsidiaries might have tier one equity of 35%, but it's often extremely difficult to get that money out to your French subsidiary with tier one equity of 5%.
And that's why HSBC in not as well capitalised as it appears. HSBC is the most global bank in the world, with operations spanning the globe. A consolidated number of 14.2% include lots of countries with operations with tier one equity above 20 or 25%; but it's also going to include those with less than 10%. If bad times come, then they won't be able to get money out of their well capitalized subsidiaries, they will need to raise capital at the parent to pipe down into the less well capitalized subsidiaries.
Because printing more money is always easier than the alternative.
But the inevitability might be a long time away. Japan's Central Bank owns government debt equivalent to about 150% of GDP. More than two thirds of all the debt raised by the government is bought by the JCB.
And yet they haven't (yet) got hyperinflation. In fact, inflation there is de minimus.
And then the repairs aren't able to cope either.
Though you COULD do as you suggest, but also keep the nickel-filled sock handy for self-defense, for when your investment "partners" show up to "audit" your "accounts".
system…oh but the banks have fucked up again? Those debt to gdp ratios aren’t really a problem after all!’
Not directing this at you personally, what you say makes sense, but the fact that it hasn’t been said until bankers potentially need bailing out again…really stinks.
I don’t agree because I understand The inflationary Aspects of all the money printing got stored up in the housing market and stock market, inflating them for a future correction, that will come.
Much of this printed inflationary money was invested in stocks. Although different asset classes are affected differently by it, QE increased demand for bonds and created money to be invested in stocks with idea to hedge the trade and lock in profit. But the hedge might not always be perfect if prices go into correction, you may have to bail out and far worse if you were greedy and didn’t hedge.
I think we should expect a market correction. It depends how sensible the hedges are whether it’s just correction or blood bath.
1 The cost of maintaining bike lanes is pretty tiny.
2 The externalities of really big vehicles (or even going from small cars to Chelsea tractors) is more than we might think.
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/moray/4423014/cloddach-bridge-expected-close-permanently-elgin-birnie/
(There is a Silicone Valley, but I don't believe there is a bank with that name: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicone_Valley )
Not unheard of in USA, for road tarmac to get, let's say squishy, during heat waves, which we get more frequently than UK, even in northern states.
But generally NOT an issue, even in Hot Coffee, Mississippi during dog days of summer. Which can seem to last from April to October!
“So as we move away from the Jolly Rancher, Mywifeknowseverything as we approach the Duck Pond… Slack Sally has gone down there at the Kissing Gate…as we make our way on to Mrs Miggins Flower Garden, Sotallytober from The Geespot” 🤭
We know that we are driving towards a brick wall, but we keep our foot on the accelerator on the basis that we haven't hit it yet.
And the polar opposite of how the ECB acted.