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The 2023 Budget – open thread – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited March 2023
    Carnyx said:

    I was slightly taken aback to hear Hunty mentioning the Cloddach Bridge in his budget speech and that it’s getting £1.5m. Imagine my surprise when I discovered it’s in Douglas Ross’s constituency!

    And in a SCUP local authority. Jings! Also open to foot and bike, and only 6 miles diversion for cars. Seems an odd choice.

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/moray/4423014/cloddach-bridge-expected-close-permanently-elgin-birnie/
    Edit: seems to be about 2.5% annual return on the figures. No idea if that is the norm these days for acceptability. But the council still need to find a lot of money which they don't seem to have?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Carnyx said:

    I was slightly taken aback to hear Hunty mentioning the Cloddach Bridge in his budget speech and that it’s getting £1.5m. Imagine my surprise when I discovered it’s in Douglas Ross’s constituency!

    And in a SCUP local authority. Jings! Also open to foot and bike, and only 6 miles diversion for cars. Seems an odd choice.

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/moray/4423014/cloddach-bridge-expected-close-permanently-elgin-birnie/
    Like I said, helps to have low friends in high places.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    edited March 2023

    So another day that reconfirms that free market capitalist economics is one giant Ponzi Scheme.

    We know that we are driving towards a brick wall, but we keep our foot on the accelerator on the basis that we haven't hit it yet.

    That's what being alive is like.

    No doubt the whole earth is one giant Ponzi scheme. But we are still here, like Ponzi schemes, until we are not.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,589

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt increases potholes fund by £200 million

    Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.

    Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
    Will that help?

    Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.

    It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
    I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:

    Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484.
    How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data.
    How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data.
    How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data.
    Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months,
    Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)

    Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.

    Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.

    https://twitter.com/lkchdschh/status/1635682016828989440
    One of the issues with 'potholes' is that the sorts of repairs a contractor (or the local council) will do will never be able to last more than a year or so. Potholes often (but of course not always) develop where heavy vehicles are turning. The sorts of repairs that are done to 'fix potholes' are insufficient to prevent a re-occurrence almost immediately. What actually needs to happen is that the entire road surface is removed including the lower tarmac sections (roads are generally built of two or three layers of different grades of tarmac based on the stone size) and the whole thing is resurfaced. But this is a much bigger job and of course both more disruptive and more costly.

    Yes - it's about fixing the system. One other aspect is proper control of interventions by third parties - eg service providers digging holes in expensive new surfaces put in the previous day.

    What also needs to happen is that traffic laws are enforced to prevent, for example, heavy vehicles going down unsuitable roads by blindly following satnavs.

    Plus vehicles esp. HGVs parking on pavements smashing up the surface and the tactile paving which exists to help blind people navigate, creating tri[p hazards which put people in hospital. They know the laws are a mess so they don't give a damn. Quite a bit on Leith Walk in Edinburgh at present, but also everywhere.
    On our Devon lanes the problem is the modern mega-tractors, that just trash the tarmac road surface as if it were mud. If we get any hot weather and the surface melts, they can just take large chunks out for many yards.
    Sounds like remarkably crap road surface. So why is that?

    Number of years ago, WA State Dept of Transportation "experimented" with using a new road surfacing material comprised largely of recycled tires. Was NOT a success, for just the reason that you cite re: Devon.
    About 30 years ago, a preserved railway was asked to trial out a surface made from old road tires for a level crossing. From memory, it worked quite well: tarmac and/or concrete do not like the interaction with the rails: as a train passes, the rail can depress slightly; and even if it does not, vibrations can destroy concrete.

    I've just checked, and the tyre crossing's still there:
    https://goo.gl/maps/pXeJrDVUUWQnB8Cz9

    So for certain situations, they can work quite well.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    So another day that reconfirms that free market capitalist economics is one giant Ponzi Scheme.

    We know that we are driving towards a brick wall, but we keep our foot on the accelerator on the basis that we haven't hit it yet.

    No for the poor and middle class we have free market economics.
    For the privileged top 3 to 5% we have socialism with unlimited upside. Printing money to goose up asset prices and bailing you out when things go wrong.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    I was slightly taken aback to hear Hunty mentioning the Cloddach Bridge in his budget speech and that it’s getting £1.5m. Imagine my surprise when I discovered it’s in Douglas Ross’s constituency!

    And in a SCUP local authority. Jings! Also open to foot and bike, and only 6 miles diversion for cars. Seems an odd choice.

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/moray/4423014/cloddach-bridge-expected-close-permanently-elgin-birnie/
    Edit: seems to be about 2.5% annual return on the figures. No idea if that is the norm these days for acceptability. But the council still need to find a lot of money which they don't seem to have?
    They may have exaggerated the replacement cost to justify not doing it. Happens.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Reed said:

    kinabalu said:

    Reed said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Wall Street Silver
    @WallStreetSilv

    Credit Suisse now has a probability of default of 47%. That is up from 38% just a few hours ago.

    $CS is also offering crazy deposit rates of 6.5% to attract and retain deposits that are being moved out.

    Do we see a bailout by this weekend ???"

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1636002341408186368

    It’s almost as if retail banks have no business being in investment banking
    I really do wish RBS and HBOS had been liquidated back in 2008, the government should have bailed out depositors but everyone else involved with those two banks should have been burned. The moral hazard and expectation bailing them out created has been a pox on the country and the wider world.
    I honestly think they should have let the whole thing collapse in 2008. Yes there would have been mass unemployment for a while but the advantages.
    1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now.
    2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off.
    3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality.
    4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.
    Just that risk of societal meltdown though. Best not to flirt with that on balance.
    Not really. It would be the privileged class who would lose the most and they are generally the type not to riot. Yes there would be unemployment but things would quickly readjust.
    The collapse of the financial system isn't something that lends itself to modelling with any degree of confidence. It's a plan z to be contemplated only if there's no alternative.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,134
    Reed said:

    I honestly think they should have let the whole thing collapse in 2008. Yes there would have been mass unemployment for a while but the advantages.
    1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now.
    2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off.
    3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality.
    4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.

    I think several parts of this seem super-optimistic to me. In particular on 1: history suggests that the financial system does not in the long term "learn its lesson" no matter how bad the losses it takes. New traders come along who weren't there the last time around, and the lessons get forgotten again. On 2 I suspect that property prices are driven more by the fact we aren't building enough houses than anything else, which isn't something caused by the 2008 bailouts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Reed said:

    So another day that reconfirms that free market capitalist economics is one giant Ponzi Scheme.

    We know that we are driving towards a brick wall, but we keep our foot on the accelerator on the basis that we haven't hit it yet.

    No for the poor and middle class we have free market economics.
    For the privileged top 3 to 5% we have socialism with unlimited upside. Printing money to goose up asset prices and bailing you out when things go wrong.
    Not really, the minimum wage, benefits and the state pension have all gone up 10% this year and house prices are now falling
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited March 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    So another day that reconfirms that free market capitalist economics is one giant Ponzi Scheme.

    We know that we are driving towards a brick wall, but we keep our foot on the accelerator on the basis that we haven't hit it yet.

    No for the poor and middle class we have free market economics.
    For the privileged top 3 to 5% we have socialism with unlimited upside. Printing money to goose up asset prices and bailing you out when things go wrong.
    Not really, the minimum wage, benefits and the state pension have all gone up 10% this year and house prices are now falling
    After how long have [edit] hgouse prices been growing far faster than wages?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited March 2023
    carnforth said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    I was slightly taken aback to hear Hunty mentioning the Cloddach Bridge in his budget speech and that it’s getting £1.5m. Imagine my surprise when I discovered it’s in Douglas Ross’s constituency!

    And in a SCUP local authority. Jings! Also open to foot and bike, and only 6 miles diversion for cars. Seems an odd choice.

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/moray/4423014/cloddach-bridge-expected-close-permanently-elgin-birnie/
    Edit: seems to be about 2.5% annual return on the figures. No idea if that is the norm these days for acceptability. But the council still need to find a lot of money which they don't seem to have?
    They may have exaggerated the replacement cost to justify not doing it. Happens.
    IN which case they've still got to find very roughly the same money after all [edit] as it would have cost if they did exaggerate ...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt increases potholes fund by £200 million

    Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.

    Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
    Will that help?

    Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.

    It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
    I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:

    Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484.
    How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data.
    How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data.
    How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data.
    Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months,
    Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)

    Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.

    Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.

    https://twitter.com/lkchdschh/status/1635682016828989440
    One of the issues with 'potholes' is that the sorts of repairs a contractor (or the local council) will do will never be able to last more than a year or so. Potholes often (but of course not always) develop where heavy vehicles are turning. The sorts of repairs that are done to 'fix potholes' are insufficient to prevent a re-occurrence almost immediately. What actually needs to happen is that the entire road surface is removed including the lower tarmac sections (roads are generally built of two or three layers of different grades of tarmac based on the stone size) and the whole thing is resurfaced. But this is a much bigger job and of course both more disruptive and more costly.

    Yes - it's about fixing the system. One other aspect is proper control of interventions by third parties - eg service providers digging holes in expensive new surfaces put in the previous day.

    What also needs to happen is that traffic laws are enforced to prevent, for example, heavy vehicles going down unsuitable roads by blindly following satnavs.

    Plus vehicles esp. HGVs parking on pavements smashing up the surface and the tactile paving which exists to help blind people navigate, creating tri[p hazards which put people in hospital. They know the laws are a mess so they don't give a damn. Quite a bit on Leith Walk in Edinburgh at present, but also everywhere.
    On our Devon lanes the problem is the modern mega-tractors, that just trash the tarmac road surface as if it were mud. If we get any hot weather and the surface melts, they can just take large chunks out for many yards.
    Sounds like remarkably crap road surface. So why is that?

    Number of years ago, WA State Dept of Transportation "experimented" with using a new road surfacing material comprised largely of recycled tires. Was NOT a success, for just the reason that you cite re: Devon.
    About 30 years ago, a preserved railway was asked to trial out a surface made from old road tires for a level crossing. From memory, it worked quite well: tarmac and/or concrete do not like the interaction with the rails: as a train passes, the rail can depress slightly; and even if it does not, vibrations can destroy concrete.

    I've just checked, and the tyre crossing's still there:
    https://goo.gl/maps/pXeJrDVUUWQnB8Cz9

    So for certain situations, they can work quite well.
    Believe you are correct re: rail/road Xs.

    Certainly in these parts, rubberized something between rails and tarmac where the road crosses is very common.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    So another day that reconfirms that free market capitalist economics is one giant Ponzi Scheme.

    We know that we are driving towards a brick wall, but we keep our foot on the accelerator on the basis that we haven't hit it yet.

    No for the poor and middle class we have free market economics.
    For the privileged top 3 to 5% we have socialism with unlimited upside. Printing money to goose up asset prices and bailing you out when things go wrong.
    Not really, the minimum wage, benefits and the state pension have all gone up 10% this year and house prices are now falling
    Thats one year. Those are not the trends over the last 15 years when asset holders have been enriched at the expense of normal working folk.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt increases potholes fund by £200 million

    Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.

    Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
    Will that help?

    Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.

    It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
    I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:

    Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484.
    How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data.
    How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data.
    How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data.
    Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months,
    Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)

    Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.

    Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.

    https://twitter.com/lkchdschh/status/1635682016828989440
    One of the issues with 'potholes' is that the sorts of repairs a contractor (or the local council) will do will never be able to last more than a year or so. Potholes often (but of course not always) develop where heavy vehicles are turning. The sorts of repairs that are done to 'fix potholes' are insufficient to prevent a re-occurrence almost immediately. What actually needs to happen is that the entire road surface is removed including the lower tarmac sections (roads are generally built of two or three layers of different grades of tarmac based on the stone size) and the whole thing is resurfaced. But this is a much bigger job and of course both more disruptive and more costly.

    Yes - it's about fixing the system. One other aspect is proper control of interventions by third parties - eg service providers digging holes in expensive new surfaces put in the previous day.

    What also needs to happen is that traffic laws are enforced to prevent, for example, heavy vehicles going down unsuitable roads by blindly following satnavs.

    Plus vehicles esp. HGVs parking on pavements smashing up the surface and the tactile paving which exists to help blind people navigate, creating tri[p hazards which put people in hospital. They know the laws are a mess so they don't give a damn. Quite a bit on Leith Walk in Edinburgh at present, but also everywhere.
    On our Devon lanes the problem is the modern mega-tractors, that just trash the tarmac road surface as if it were mud. If we get any hot weather and the surface melts, they can just take large chunks out for many yards.
    Sounds like remarkably crap road surface. So why is that?

    Number of years ago, WA State Dept of Transportation "experimented" with using a new road surfacing material comprised largely of recycled tires. Was NOT a success, for just the reason that you cite re: Devon.
    The surface seems to have done the job until very recently. The lanes are too tight for HGVs, so they haven't really been too stressed by vehicles. I think it is just the emergence of a new generation of very large agricultural kit - both tractors and trailers - that can pull heavier loads - and that the roads are finally breaking under this new level of weight.

    And then the repairs aren't able to cope either.
    I live in a highly agricultural area. People want food; they want UK produced food and they want it inexpensive on the whole. UK agriculture is pretty good. But like everything else (banks, oil companies etc) it keeps costs down.

    As a result we need either to have roads and road surfaces that can cope with the realities of food production in a supermarket age, or to fund agriculture properly. Both would be good. To have neither is the sort of solution urbanites go for, until the moment food supplies fail them.

    Like when you can't buy cucumbers in February actually leads the news on serious (very city centred) broadcasters.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    HYUFD said:

    Hunt increases potholes fund by £200 million

    Good news for cyclists.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    FTSE down nearly 4% now. Seems to be capital flight out of europe and into us large cap tech today.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Cross country now! A spin on a steeplechase from 200 years ago!

    “So as we move away from the Jolly Rancher, Mywifeknowseverything as we approach the Duck Pond… Slack Sally has gone down there at the Kissing Gate…as we make our way on to Mrs Miggins Flower Garden, Sotallytober from The Geespot” 🤭

    Oh. Nice finish.

    But cheese knockers. Why didn’t I invent a fence called cheese knockers.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    Cross country now! A spin on a steeplechase from 200 years ago!

    “So as we move away from the Jolly Rancher, Mywifeknowseverything as we approach the Duck Pond… Slack Sally has gone down there at the Kissing Gate…as we make our way on to Mrs Miggins Flower Garden, Sotallytober from The Geespot” 🤭

    Oh. Nice finish.

    But cheese knockers. Why didn’t I invent a fence called cheese knockers.
    Give it time. I'm sure that the wikipedia graph of polls will show some cheese knockers at some point this year.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Reed said:

    FTSE down nearly 4% now. Seems to be capital flight out of europe and into us large cap tech today.

    Who'd have thought the budget would have gone down so badly?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565

    Off topic? One of our local news ladies referred to SVB as "Silicone Valley Bank". Reminding me that not all news folks know what they are talking about or, more kindly, that we all make mistakes.

    (There is a Silicone Valley, but I don't believe there is a bank with that name: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicone_Valley )

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guRFMx-rZ1U&ab_channel=BadfishKoo

    (for all the Anchorman fans)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    algarkirk said:



    No doubt the whole earth is one giant Ponzi scheme.

    As philosophical reactions to life's ups and downs go, that's one of the more depressing.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    Chris said:

    Reed said:

    FTSE down nearly 4% now. Seems to be capital flight out of europe and into us large cap tech today.

    Who'd have thought the budget would have gone down so badly?
    I dont think the budget caused this but the optics for Hunt and the conservatives are terrible.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,264

    Andy_JS said:

    "Wall Street Silver
    @WallStreetSilv

    Credit Suisse now has a probability of default of 47%. That is up from 38% just a few hours ago.

    $CS is also offering crazy deposit rates of 6.5% to attract and retain deposits that are being moved out.

    Do we see a bailout by this weekend ???"

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1636002341408186368

    Correction: "DisCredit Suisse" Or "discréditer Suisse"?
    Debit Suisse
    Would you rather have a Credit Suisse debit card, or a Debit Suisse credit card?

    Or alternatively, a sock full of nickels?
    Could I swap for something viable and secure?

    Like a share of three way deal involving Mexican drug cartels, stolen plutonium and a complete list of all CIA agents?
    Sock full of nickels (worth at least $10 and also useful as a cudgel, door stop or paperweight) is FAR more viable and secure investment than your dream portfolio!

    Though you COULD do as you suggest, but also keep the nickel-filled sock handy for self-defense, for when your investment "partners" show up to "audit" your "accounts".
    Idea!

    Orralloy Coin

    The physical investment that can keep you warm.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    So another day that reconfirms that free market capitalist economics is one giant Ponzi Scheme.

    We know that we are driving towards a brick wall, but we keep our foot on the accelerator on the basis that we haven't hit it yet.

    No for the poor and middle class we have free market economics.
    For the privileged top 3 to 5% we have socialism with unlimited upside. Printing money to goose up asset prices and bailing you out when things go wrong.
    Not really, the minimum wage, benefits and the state pension have all gone up 10% this year and house prices are now falling
    Thats one year. Those are not the trends over the last 15 years when asset holders have been enriched at the expense of normal working folk.
    65-70% of the adult population own a property, with or without a mortgage, they are 'normal folk'
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt increases potholes fund by £200 million

    Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.

    Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
    Will that help?

    Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.

    It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
    I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:

    Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484.
    How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data.
    How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data.
    How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data.
    Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months,
    Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)

    Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.

    Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.

    https://twitter.com/lkchdschh/status/1635682016828989440
    One of the issues with 'potholes' is that the sorts of repairs a contractor (or the local council) will do will never be able to last more than a year or so. Potholes often (but of course not always) develop where heavy vehicles are turning. The sorts of repairs that are done to 'fix potholes' are insufficient to prevent a re-occurrence almost immediately. What actually needs to happen is that the entire road surface is removed including the lower tarmac sections (roads are generally built of two or three layers of different grades of tarmac based on the stone size) and the whole thing is resurfaced. But this is a much bigger job and of course both more disruptive and more costly.

    Yes - it's about fixing the system. One other aspect is proper control of interventions by third parties - eg service providers digging holes in expensive new surfaces put in the previous day.

    What also needs to happen is that traffic laws are enforced to prevent, for example, heavy vehicles going down unsuitable roads by blindly following satnavs.

    Plus vehicles esp. HGVs parking on pavements smashing up the surface and the tactile paving which exists to help blind people navigate, creating tri[p hazards which put people in hospital. They know the laws are a mess so they don't give a damn. Quite a bit on Leith Walk in Edinburgh at present, but also everywhere.
    On our Devon lanes the problem is the modern mega-tractors, that just trash the tarmac road surface as if it were mud. If we get any hot weather and the surface melts, they can just take large chunks out for many yards.
    Sounds like remarkably crap road surface. So why is that?

    Number of years ago, WA State Dept of Transportation "experimented" with using a new road surfacing material comprised largely of recycled tires. Was NOT a success, for just the reason that you cite re: Devon.
    About 30 years ago, a preserved railway was asked to trial out a surface made from old road tires for a level crossing. From memory, it worked quite well: tarmac and/or concrete do not like the interaction with the rails: as a train passes, the rail can depress slightly; and even if it does not, vibrations can destroy concrete.

    I've just checked, and the tyre crossing's still there:
    https://goo.gl/maps/pXeJrDVUUWQnB8Cz9

    So for certain situations, they can work quite well.
    Believe you are correct re: rail/road Xs.

    Certainly in these parts, rubberized something between rails and tarmac where the road crosses is very common.
    I think we've just had one installed at our crossing in Wye where, in December, the gates went automatic after 177 years of being opened and closed manually. Someone literally used to walk into the road and close the gate.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Reed said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Wall Street Silver
    @WallStreetSilv

    Credit Suisse now has a probability of default of 47%. That is up from 38% just a few hours ago.

    $CS is also offering crazy deposit rates of 6.5% to attract and retain deposits that are being moved out.

    Do we see a bailout by this weekend ???"

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1636002341408186368

    It’s almost as if retail banks have no business being in investment banking
    I really do wish RBS and HBOS had been liquidated back in 2008, the government should have bailed out depositors but everyone else involved with those two banks should have been burned. The moral hazard and expectation bailing them out created has been a pox on the country and the wider world.
    I honestly think they should have let the whole thing collapse in 2008. Yes there would have been mass unemployment for a while but the advantages.
    1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now.
    2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off.
    3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality.
    4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.
    So, are you proposing that depositors outside the protection scheme - i.e. all corporates - were not protected?

    OK. Royal Bank of Scotland sees a run on deposits. They are forced to close. Companies are unable to make payroll, because they have no access to their deposits because the bank is being wound up.

    Depositors at HSBC, Lloyds, etc. see the writing on the wall, and then try and withdraw all their deposits too, because they see what's happened at RBS.

    Everybody tries to withdraw all their money. Which bank, no matter how well capitalized, can survive even 20% of their depositors heading for the exit all at once. That's the nature of banking: you borrow short (deposits) and you lend long (mortgages).

    Are you planning on never stepping in in this scenario? I.e. every bank goes bust. Or are you planning on stepping in at some point to stop contagion.

    Are you going to protect all deposits, therefore creating moral hazard? Or just some fraction, which encourages bank runs if there is even the slightest concern that a bank might be insolvent or if there is even a fear that other people might think it could be insolvent. As the costs of withdrawing money are zero, the incentive is always to do so.

    And the resolution companies that are setup to recover mortgage debt after the dissolution of the banking system, are they going to foreclose on millions of homes simulateneously?

    Basically, at some point the Government and the BoE step in. There is no "oh, let it all collapse" option. The only question is when you do so.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    So another day that reconfirms that free market capitalist economics is one giant Ponzi Scheme.

    We know that we are driving towards a brick wall, but we keep our foot on the accelerator on the basis that we haven't hit it yet.

    No for the poor and middle class we have free market economics.
    For the privileged top 3 to 5% we have socialism with unlimited upside. Printing money to goose up asset prices and bailing you out when things go wrong.
    Not really, the minimum wage, benefits and the state pension have all gone up 10% this year and house prices are now falling
    Thats one year. Those are not the trends over the last 15 years when asset holders have been enriched at the expense of normal working folk.
    65-70% of the adult population own a property, with or without a mortgage, they are 'normal folk'
    I wouldnt regard someone in debt to their eyeballs struggling to pay a mortgage as an asset holder.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Reed said:

    Chris said:

    Reed said:

    FTSE down nearly 4% now. Seems to be capital flight out of europe and into us large cap tech today.

    Who'd have thought the budget would have gone down so badly?
    I dont think the budget caused this but the optics for Hunt and the conservatives are terrible.
    Expect Liz Truss (or sources close) to be accentuating the optics.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited March 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    So another day that reconfirms that free market capitalist economics is one giant Ponzi Scheme.

    We know that we are driving towards a brick wall, but we keep our foot on the accelerator on the basis that we haven't hit it yet.

    No for the poor and middle class we have free market economics.
    For the privileged top 3 to 5% we have socialism with unlimited upside. Printing money to goose up asset prices and bailing you out when things go wrong.
    Not really, the minimum wage, benefits and the state pension have all gone up 10% this year and house prices are now falling
    Thats one year. Those are not the trends over the last 15 years when asset holders have been enriched at the expense of normal working folk.
    65-70% of the adult population own a property, with or without a mortgage, they are 'normal folk'
    Anyone who has a mortgage does not own their house, in a major practical sense.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    Chris said:

    algarkirk said:



    No doubt the whole earth is one giant Ponzi scheme.

    As philosophical reactions to life's ups and downs go, that's one of the more depressing.
    "Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof" as a remarkable peasant once said.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    algarkirk said:

    Chris said:

    algarkirk said:



    No doubt the whole earth is one giant Ponzi scheme.

    As philosophical reactions to life's ups and downs go, that's one of the more depressing.
    "Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof" as a remarkable peasant once said.
    And thank goodness for gold!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Chris said:

    Reed said:

    FTSE down nearly 4% now. Seems to be capital flight out of europe and into us large cap tech today.

    Who'd have thought the budget would have gone down so badly?
    CAC down 3.3%
    DAX down 3.3%
    S&P down 2.0%
    FTSE down 4.0%

    It's hardly standing out that much as an outlier.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Absolutely insane it's come to this....

    Open letter on behalf of 2 of the 3 candidates bidding to replace Nicola Sturgeon, demanding to know number of SNP members in electorate

    SNP HQ keeping details secret - leading to fears of vote rigging

    What on earth is SNP HQ thinking?




    https://twitter.com/chrismusson/status/1636018278119161858
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    So another day that reconfirms that free market capitalist economics is one giant Ponzi Scheme.

    We know that we are driving towards a brick wall, but we keep our foot on the accelerator on the basis that we haven't hit it yet.

    No for the poor and middle class we have free market economics.
    For the privileged top 3 to 5% we have socialism with unlimited upside. Printing money to goose up asset prices and bailing you out when things go wrong.
    Not really, the minimum wage, benefits and the state pension have all gone up 10% this year and house prices are now falling
    Thats one year. Those are not the trends over the last 15 years when asset holders have been enriched at the expense of normal working folk.
    65-70% of the adult population own a property, with or without a mortgage, they are 'normal folk'
    Anyone who has a mortgage does not own their house, in a major practical sense.

    They own their home, and they have a loan secured on it.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    So another day that reconfirms that free market capitalist economics is one giant Ponzi Scheme.

    We know that we are driving towards a brick wall, but we keep our foot on the accelerator on the basis that we haven't hit it yet.

    No for the poor and middle class we have free market economics.
    For the privileged top 3 to 5% we have socialism with unlimited upside. Printing money to goose up asset prices and bailing you out when things go wrong.
    Not really, the minimum wage, benefits and the state pension have all gone up 10% this year and house prices are now falling
    Thats one year. Those are not the trends over the last 15 years when asset holders have been enriched at the expense of normal working folk.
    65-70% of the adult population own a property, with or without a mortgage, they are 'normal folk'
    Anyone who has a mortgage does not own their house, in a major practical sense.

    An interesting question. The answer depends on the analysis.

    You have bought a house, and its yours. As it happens the way you have bought it is by borrowing the money, just like you might borrow £300 from the bank to buy a widget. And as it happens the house is collateral for the debt to buy the house, because otherwise you could not have borrowed the money.

    Answer: I own the house just like I own the widget.

    Other analyses are available.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited March 2023
    Chris said:

    Reed said:

    FTSE down nearly 4% now. Seems to be capital flight out of europe and into us large cap tech today.

    Who'd have thought the budget would have gone down so badly?
    Amazing!

    Carnival Cruise Lines down nearly 10%
    because of the U.K. budget….
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    Absolutely insane it's come to this....

    Open letter on behalf of 2 of the 3 candidates bidding to replace Nicola Sturgeon, demanding to know number of SNP members in electorate

    SNP HQ keeping details secret - leading to fears of vote rigging

    What on earth is SNP HQ thinking?




    https://twitter.com/chrismusson/status/1636018278119161858

    Answer, the SNP needs a leader with a bit of old fashioned morals who will cleanse the Augean stables. The odds for Forbes have been lengthening but intuition tells me she is not out of it.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    Chris said:

    algarkirk said:

    Chris said:

    algarkirk said:



    No doubt the whole earth is one giant Ponzi scheme.

    As philosophical reactions to life's ups and downs go, that's one of the more depressing.
    "Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof" as a remarkable peasant once said.
    And thank goodness for gold!
    That too, except he didn't manage to say that. But he did say "Where your treasure is there will your heart be also" which packs a lot into one sentence.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,929
    Carnyx said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    So unConservative.


    Fiscal drag is huge in next 5 years

    Chx has kept freeze on income tax thresholds until 2028, despite record tax receipts in past year

    That will drag a whopping extra 15.5m people into basic income tax rate by 27/28, 9.8m extra into higher rate, & 1.6m extra into additional rate




    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1636017518052507652/photo/1

    "Fiscal drag": people who get a pay rise paying more tax.
    Except it is not a pay rise in real terms if it is at, or worse less than, inflation.

    Inflation 10%
    Pay 5%
    Tax threshold 0%

    Is that a pay rise or cut in real terms? It's a double whammy, pay more tax while having pay cut.
    Inflation isn't going to be 10% by the look of it, so that's a bit of a red herring.

    And if your 5% pay rise takes you from just below a threshold to just above it, you only pay the higher rate on the small amount that is above it...
    But we've had a period of 10-20% inflation already, which hasn't been compensated for in most salaries.
    I must have missed the 20% inflation period.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Chris said:

    Reed said:

    FTSE down nearly 4% now. Seems to be capital flight out of europe and into us large cap tech today.

    Who'd have thought the budget would have gone down so badly?
    Every time the Tories have a budget it’s followed by market chaos 😤
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited March 2023
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    So unConservative.


    Fiscal drag is huge in next 5 years

    Chx has kept freeze on income tax thresholds until 2028, despite record tax receipts in past year

    That will drag a whopping extra 15.5m people into basic income tax rate by 27/28, 9.8m extra into higher rate, & 1.6m extra into additional rate




    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1636017518052507652/photo/1

    "Fiscal drag": people who get a pay rise paying more tax.
    Except it is not a pay rise in real terms if it is at, or worse less than, inflation.

    Inflation 10%
    Pay 5%
    Tax threshold 0%

    Is that a pay rise or cut in real terms? It's a double whammy, pay more tax while having pay cut.
    Inflation isn't going to be 10% by the look of it, so that's a bit of a red herring.

    And if your 5% pay rise takes you from just below a threshold to just above it, you only pay the higher rate on the small amount that is above it...
    But we've had a period of 10-20% inflation already, which hasn't been compensated for in most salaries.
    I must have missed the 20% inflation period.
    For cheap food, power, etc. So it depends where one lives on the spectrum. Sorry, was not too clear. But folk will be somewhere in that range depending on their circs.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    rcs1000 said:

    Reed said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Wall Street Silver
    @WallStreetSilv

    Credit Suisse now has a probability of default of 47%. That is up from 38% just a few hours ago.

    $CS is also offering crazy deposit rates of 6.5% to attract and retain deposits that are being moved out.

    Do we see a bailout by this weekend ???"

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1636002341408186368

    It’s almost as if retail banks have no business being in investment banking
    I really do wish RBS and HBOS had been liquidated back in 2008, the government should have bailed out depositors but everyone else involved with those two banks should have been burned. The moral hazard and expectation bailing them out created has been a pox on the country and the wider world.
    I honestly think they should have let the whole thing collapse in 2008. Yes there would have been mass unemployment for a while but the advantages.
    1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now.
    2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off.
    3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality.
    4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.
    So, are you proposing that depositors outside the protection scheme - i.e. all corporates - were not protected?

    OK. Royal Bank of Scotland sees a run on deposits. They are forced to close. Companies are unable to make payroll, because they have no access to their deposits because the bank is being wound up.

    Depositors at HSBC, Lloyds, etc. see the writing on the wall, and then try and withdraw all their deposits too, because they see what's happened at RBS.

    Everybody tries to withdraw all their money. Which bank, no matter how well capitalized, can survive even 20% of their depositors heading for the exit all at once. That's the nature of banking: you borrow short (deposits) and you lend long (mortgages).

    Are you planning on never stepping in in this scenario? I.e. every bank goes bust. Or are you planning on stepping in at some point to stop contagion.

    Are you going to protect all deposits, therefore creating moral hazard? Or just some fraction, which encourages bank runs if there is even the slightest concern that a bank might be insolvent or if there is even a fear that other people might think it could be insolvent. As the costs of withdrawing money are zero, the incentive is always to do so.

    And the resolution companies that are setup to recover mortgage debt after the dissolution of the banking system, are they going to foreclose on millions of homes simulateneously?

    Basically, at some point the Government and the BoE step in. There is no "oh, let it all collapse" option. The only question is when you do so.
    It should only ever have been depositors, everything else should have been liquidated. There was no viable bank there and everyone except depositors should have been burned and made to hold their tens of billions in losses.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    algarkirk said:

    Chris said:

    algarkirk said:

    Chris said:

    algarkirk said:



    No doubt the whole earth is one giant Ponzi scheme.

    As philosophical reactions to life's ups and downs go, that's one of the more depressing.
    "Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof" as a remarkable peasant once said.
    And thank goodness for gold!
    That too, except he didn't manage to say that. But he did say "Where your treasure is there will your heart be also" which packs a lot into one sentence.

    I thought the bit about "That night he died" was pretty good too,

    When you think about it, Jesus came up with nearly as many famous quotations as Shakespeare.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited March 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    So another day that reconfirms that free market capitalist economics is one giant Ponzi Scheme.

    We know that we are driving towards a brick wall, but we keep our foot on the accelerator on the basis that we haven't hit it yet.

    No for the poor and middle class we have free market economics.
    For the privileged top 3 to 5% we have socialism with unlimited upside. Printing money to goose up asset prices and bailing you out when things go wrong.
    Not really, the minimum wage, benefits and the state pension have all gone up 10% this year and house prices are now falling
    Thats one year. Those are not the trends over the last 15 years when asset holders have been enriched at the expense of normal working folk.
    65-70% of the adult population own a property, with or without a mortgage, they are 'normal folk'
    Also, you're wrong again. [Edit] Each person in your category does not necessarily own "a" property, even assuming negligible mortgages. They own either a property, or a part of one (or more than oen in a few cases). Big difference.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    Reed said:

    FTSE down nearly 4% now. Seems to be capital flight out of europe and into us large cap tech today.

    Who'd have thought the budget would have gone down so badly?
    CAC down 3.3%
    DAX down 3.3%
    S&P down 2.0%
    FTSE down 4.0%

    It's hardly standing out that much as an outlier.
    I mean Liz Truss just trashed the UK economy, but this crypto-leftie Jeremy Hunt has done it for the whole world!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,929
    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    So unConservative.


    Fiscal drag is huge in next 5 years

    Chx has kept freeze on income tax thresholds until 2028, despite record tax receipts in past year

    That will drag a whopping extra 15.5m people into basic income tax rate by 27/28, 9.8m extra into higher rate, & 1.6m extra into additional rate




    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1636017518052507652/photo/1

    "Fiscal drag": people who get a pay rise paying more tax.
    Except it is not a pay rise in real terms if it is at, or worse less than, inflation.

    Inflation 10%
    Pay 5%
    Tax threshold 0%

    Is that a pay rise or cut in real terms? It's a double whammy, pay more tax while having pay cut.
    Inflation isn't going to be 10% by the look of it, so that's a bit of a red herring.

    And if your 5% pay rise takes you from just below a threshold to just above it, you only pay the higher rate on the small amount that is above it...
    But we've had a period of 10-20% inflation already, which hasn't been compensated for in most salaries.
    I must have missed the 20% inflation period.
    For cheap food, power, etc. So it depends where one lives on the spectrum. Sorry, was not too clear. But folk will be somewhere in that range depending on their circs.
    Some elements will be above the headline rate, some below. So surely most people will be around the headline rate, not at the extreme.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,999
    Off topic, but this may be important for some of you: "Exercise as a treatment for severe depression is at least as effective as standard drugs or psychotherapy and by some measures better, according to the largest study to date of exercise as “medicine” for depression.

    The study pooled data from 41 studies involving 2,265 people with depression and showed that almost any type of exercise substantially reduces depression symptoms, although some forms of exercise seemed more beneficial than others."
    (Link omitted.)
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2023/03/15/exercise-depression-benefits/

    The study was led by Andreas Heissel, an exercise scientist at the University of Potsdam in Germany. https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2023/02/14/bjsports-2022-106282.long

    (Exercise has been very effective for me -- after I learned that just walking didn't count. You need to walk "briskly", say at 100 steps per minute. Your heart and lungs should be working harder than when you just amble along.

    Of course, even better are exercises like cross country skiing and swiming. I am serious when I suggest that someone who wants to improve their community can do so by making such exercises available.)
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    So another day that reconfirms that free market capitalist economics is one giant Ponzi Scheme.

    We know that we are driving towards a brick wall, but we keep our foot on the accelerator on the basis that we haven't hit it yet.

    No for the poor and middle class we have free market economics.
    For the privileged top 3 to 5% we have socialism with unlimited upside. Printing money to goose up asset prices and bailing you out when things go wrong.
    Not really, the minimum wage, benefits and the state pension have all gone up 10% this year and house prices are now falling
    Thats one year. Those are not the trends over the last 15 years when asset holders have been enriched at the expense of normal working folk.
    65-70% of the adult population own a property, with or without a mortgage, they are 'normal folk'
    Anyone who has a mortgage does not own their house, in a major practical sense.

    They own their home, and they have a loan secured on it.
    Maybe there's a difference in Scots Land Law?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    So unConservative.


    Fiscal drag is huge in next 5 years

    Chx has kept freeze on income tax thresholds until 2028, despite record tax receipts in past year

    That will drag a whopping extra 15.5m people into basic income tax rate by 27/28, 9.8m extra into higher rate, & 1.6m extra into additional rate




    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1636017518052507652/photo/1

    "Fiscal drag": people who get a pay rise paying more tax.
    Except it is not a pay rise in real terms if it is at, or worse less than, inflation.

    Inflation 10%
    Pay 5%
    Tax threshold 0%

    Is that a pay rise or cut in real terms? It's a double whammy, pay more tax while having pay cut.
    Inflation isn't going to be 10% by the look of it, so that's a bit of a red herring.

    And if your 5% pay rise takes you from just below a threshold to just above it, you only pay the higher rate on the small amount that is above it...
    But we've had a period of 10-20% inflation already, which hasn't been compensated for in most salaries.
    I must have missed the 20% inflation period.
    For cheap food, power, etc. So it depends where one lives on the spectrum. Sorry, was not too clear. But folk will be somewhere in that range depending on their circs.
    Some elements will be above the headline rate, some below. So surely most people will be around the headline rate, not at the extreme.
    If only the headline rate was measured against a basket of goods to balance it out and give a guide figure….
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    biggles said:

    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    So unConservative.


    Fiscal drag is huge in next 5 years

    Chx has kept freeze on income tax thresholds until 2028, despite record tax receipts in past year

    That will drag a whopping extra 15.5m people into basic income tax rate by 27/28, 9.8m extra into higher rate, & 1.6m extra into additional rate




    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1636017518052507652/photo/1

    "Fiscal drag": people who get a pay rise paying more tax.
    Except it is not a pay rise in real terms if it is at, or worse less than, inflation.

    Inflation 10%
    Pay 5%
    Tax threshold 0%

    Is that a pay rise or cut in real terms? It's a double whammy, pay more tax while having pay cut.
    Inflation isn't going to be 10% by the look of it, so that's a bit of a red herring.

    And if your 5% pay rise takes you from just below a threshold to just above it, you only pay the higher rate on the small amount that is above it...
    But we've had a period of 10-20% inflation already, which hasn't been compensated for in most salaries.
    I must have missed the 20% inflation period.
    For cheap food, power, etc. So it depends where one lives on the spectrum. Sorry, was not too clear. But folk will be somewhere in that range depending on their circs.
    Some elements will be above the headline rate, some below. So surely most people will be around the headline rate, not at the extreme.
    If only the headline rate was measured against a basket of goods to balance it out and give a guide figure….
    https://www.which.co.uk/reviews/supermarkets/article/whats-happening-to-supermarket-food-prices-aU2oV0A46tu3?&utm_content=large-email-component&utm_medium=Email&utm_source=ExactTarget&utm_campaign=4222856-C_WS_EM_200123_test&mi_u=213048458&mi_ecmp=C_WS_EM_200123_test
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    DougSeal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    So another day that reconfirms that free market capitalist economics is one giant Ponzi Scheme.

    We know that we are driving towards a brick wall, but we keep our foot on the accelerator on the basis that we haven't hit it yet.

    No for the poor and middle class we have free market economics.
    For the privileged top 3 to 5% we have socialism with unlimited upside. Printing money to goose up asset prices and bailing you out when things go wrong.
    Not really, the minimum wage, benefits and the state pension have all gone up 10% this year and house prices are now falling
    Thats one year. Those are not the trends over the last 15 years when asset holders have been enriched at the expense of normal working folk.
    65-70% of the adult population own a property, with or without a mortgage, they are 'normal folk'
    Anyone who has a mortgage does not own their house, in a major practical sense.

    They own their home, and they have a loan secured on it.
    Maybe there's a difference in Scots Land Law?
    No, not that. I did say 'in an important practical sense'. Though not a strict legal one!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    So unConservative.


    Fiscal drag is huge in next 5 years

    Chx has kept freeze on income tax thresholds until 2028, despite record tax receipts in past year

    That will drag a whopping extra 15.5m people into basic income tax rate by 27/28, 9.8m extra into higher rate, & 1.6m extra into additional rate




    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1636017518052507652/photo/1

    "Fiscal drag": people who get a pay rise paying more tax.
    Except it is not a pay rise in real terms if it is at, or worse less than, inflation.

    Inflation 10%
    Pay 5%
    Tax threshold 0%

    Is that a pay rise or cut in real terms? It's a double whammy, pay more tax while having pay cut.
    Inflation isn't going to be 10% by the look of it, so that's a bit of a red herring.

    And if your 5% pay rise takes you from just below a threshold to just above it, you only pay the higher rate on the small amount that is above it...
    But we've had a period of 10-20% inflation already, which hasn't been compensated for in most salaries.
    I must have missed the 20% inflation period.
    For cheap food, power, etc. So it depends where one lives on the spectrum. Sorry, was not too clear. But folk will be somewhere in that range depending on their circs.
    Some elements will be above the headline rate, some below. So surely most people will be around the headline rate, not at the extreme.
    We've done the opposite of lucking out there;



    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12196322

    Hence the talk of a Sam Vimes inflation rate to measure what it looks like for people nearer the bottom of the heap.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    Dont think the fed will raise next week the way us tech stocks are trading.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,929
    edited March 2023

    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    So unConservative.


    Fiscal drag is huge in next 5 years

    Chx has kept freeze on income tax thresholds until 2028, despite record tax receipts in past year

    That will drag a whopping extra 15.5m people into basic income tax rate by 27/28, 9.8m extra into higher rate, & 1.6m extra into additional rate




    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1636017518052507652/photo/1

    "Fiscal drag": people who get a pay rise paying more tax.
    Except it is not a pay rise in real terms if it is at, or worse less than, inflation.

    Inflation 10%
    Pay 5%
    Tax threshold 0%

    Is that a pay rise or cut in real terms? It's a double whammy, pay more tax while having pay cut.
    Inflation isn't going to be 10% by the look of it, so that's a bit of a red herring.

    And if your 5% pay rise takes you from just below a threshold to just above it, you only pay the higher rate on the small amount that is above it...
    But we've had a period of 10-20% inflation already, which hasn't been compensated for in most salaries.
    I must have missed the 20% inflation period.
    For cheap food, power, etc. So it depends where one lives on the spectrum. Sorry, was not too clear. But folk will be somewhere in that range depending on their circs.
    Some elements will be above the headline rate, some below. So surely most people will be around the headline rate, not at the extreme.
    We've done the opposite of lucking out there;



    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12196322

    Hence the talk of a Sam Vimes inflation rate to measure what it looks like for people nearer the bottom of the heap.
    Yes, that would be interesting. But I was pointing out that there would be people above and below the headline rate, not just above as was suggested.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    I am quite impressed by this budget, they are doing stuff that will have a big impact and not just tweaking around at the edges. In the end though, I wouldn't put too much money in to a pension, because my instinct is that the politics mean it will be highly taxed when you eventually get the money.
  • algarkirk said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reed said:

    So another day that reconfirms that free market capitalist economics is one giant Ponzi Scheme.

    We know that we are driving towards a brick wall, but we keep our foot on the accelerator on the basis that we haven't hit it yet.

    No for the poor and middle class we have free market economics.
    For the privileged top 3 to 5% we have socialism with unlimited upside. Printing money to goose up asset prices and bailing you out when things go wrong.
    Not really, the minimum wage, benefits and the state pension have all gone up 10% this year and house prices are now falling
    Thats one year. Those are not the trends over the last 15 years when asset holders have been enriched at the expense of normal working folk.
    65-70% of the adult population own a property, with or without a mortgage, they are 'normal folk'
    Anyone who has a mortgage does not own their house, in a major practical sense.

    An interesting question. The answer depends on the analysis.

    You have bought a house, and its yours. As it happens the way you have bought it is by borrowing the money, just like you might borrow £300 from the bank to buy a widget. And as it happens the house is collateral for the debt to buy the house, because otherwise you could not have borrowed the money.

    Answer: I own the house just like I own the widget.

    Other analyses are available.

    It used to be the case that a mortgage of a house did actually transfer legal title to the lender. After all, the concept of a mortgage is of a transfer of title to a lender subject to agreement to transfer it back on discharge of the loan. LPA 1925 changed that for land (and thus things built on the land), so the legal title is "charged" rather than transferred.

    https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/8-107-6863?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    US Treasury is looking at US financial sector's exposure to Credit Suisse, according to Bloomberg
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    Reed said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Wall Street Silver
    @WallStreetSilv

    Credit Suisse now has a probability of default of 47%. That is up from 38% just a few hours ago.

    $CS is also offering crazy deposit rates of 6.5% to attract and retain deposits that are being moved out.

    Do we see a bailout by this weekend ???"

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1636002341408186368

    It’s almost as if retail banks have no business being in investment banking
    I really do wish RBS and HBOS had been liquidated back in 2008, the government should have bailed out depositors but everyone else involved with those two banks should have been burned. The moral hazard and expectation bailing them out created has been a pox on the country and the wider world.
    I honestly think they should have let the whole thing collapse in 2008. Yes there would have been mass unemployment for a while but the advantages.
    1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now.
    2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off.
    3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality.
    4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.
    So, are you proposing that depositors outside the protection scheme - i.e. all corporates - were not protected?

    OK. Royal Bank of Scotland sees a run on deposits. They are forced to close. Companies are unable to make payroll, because they have no access to their deposits because the bank is being wound up.

    Depositors at HSBC, Lloyds, etc. see the writing on the wall, and then try and withdraw all their deposits too, because they see what's happened at RBS.

    Everybody tries to withdraw all their money. Which bank, no matter how well capitalized, can survive even 20% of their depositors heading for the exit all at once. That's the nature of banking: you borrow short (deposits) and you lend long (mortgages).

    Are you planning on never stepping in in this scenario? I.e. every bank goes bust. Or are you planning on stepping in at some point to stop contagion.

    Are you going to protect all deposits, therefore creating moral hazard? Or just some fraction, which encourages bank runs if there is even the slightest concern that a bank might be insolvent or if there is even a fear that other people might think it could be insolvent. As the costs of withdrawing money are zero, the incentive is always to do so.

    And the resolution companies that are setup to recover mortgage debt after the dissolution of the banking system, are they going to foreclose on millions of homes simulateneously?

    Basically, at some point the Government and the BoE step in. There is no "oh, let it all collapse" option. The only question is when you do so.
    The complacency - which I suppose must be rooted in ignorance - about what would happen in a major systemic bank crash is a wonder to behold. People don't seem to realise that money doesn't come out of cash machines without a bank being involved, or that payment of their salaries depends on the integrity of the banking system, or that it's not just the direct customers of the first failed bank who get hit, or that every business in the land depends on their bank remaining solvent if they are not to go bust.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094
    Actual fair play to Guido Fawkes for actually quoting a variety of think tank responses to the budget, both positive and negative

    https://order-order.com/2023/03/15/centre-right-wonks-warmest-to-jeremy-hunts-spring-budget/
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583
    I'm on "Its for Me" e/w at 17:30 in 15 minutes time.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161

    Cross country now! A spin on a steeplechase from 200 years ago!

    “So as we move away from the Jolly Rancher, Mywifeknowseverything as we approach the Duck Pond… Slack Sally has gone down there at the Kissing Gate…as we make our way on to Mrs Miggins Flower Garden, Sotallytober from The Geespot” 🤭

    Oh. Nice finish.

    But cheese knockers. Why didn’t I invent a fence called cheese knockers.
    If it's on a country footpath, then the Kissing Gate is probably illegal under the Equality Act 2010 :smiley: .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    rcs1000 said:

    Reed said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Wall Street Silver
    @WallStreetSilv

    Credit Suisse now has a probability of default of 47%. That is up from 38% just a few hours ago.

    $CS is also offering crazy deposit rates of 6.5% to attract and retain deposits that are being moved out.

    Do we see a bailout by this weekend ???"

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1636002341408186368

    It’s almost as if retail banks have no business being in investment banking
    I really do wish RBS and HBOS had been liquidated back in 2008, the government should have bailed out depositors but everyone else involved with those two banks should have been burned. The moral hazard and expectation bailing them out created has been a pox on the country and the wider world.
    I honestly think they should have let the whole thing collapse in 2008. Yes there would have been mass unemployment for a while but the advantages.
    1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now.
    2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off.
    3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality.
    4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.
    So, are you proposing that depositors outside the protection scheme - i.e. all corporates - were not protected?

    OK. Royal Bank of Scotland sees a run on deposits. They are forced to close. Companies are unable to make payroll, because they have no access to their deposits because the bank is being wound up.

    Depositors at HSBC, Lloyds, etc. see the writing on the wall, and then try and withdraw all their deposits too, because they see what's happened at RBS.

    Everybody tries to withdraw all their money. Which bank, no matter how well capitalized, can survive even 20% of their depositors heading for the exit all at once. That's the nature of banking: you borrow short (deposits) and you lend long (mortgages).

    Are you planning on never stepping in in this scenario? I.e. every bank goes bust. Or are you planning on stepping in at some point to stop contagion.

    Are you going to protect all deposits, therefore creating moral hazard? Or just some fraction, which encourages bank runs if there is even the slightest concern that a bank might be insolvent or if there is even a fear that other people might think it could be insolvent. As the costs of withdrawing money are zero, the incentive is always to do so.

    And the resolution companies that are setup to recover mortgage debt after the dissolution of the banking system, are they going to foreclose on millions of homes simulateneously?

    Basically, at some point the Government and the BoE step in. There is no "oh, let it all collapse" option. The only question is when you do so.
    The complacency - which I suppose must be rooted in ignorance - about what would happen in a major systemic bank crash is a wonder to behold. People don't seem to realise that money doesn't come out of cash machines without a bank being involved, or that payment of their salaries depends on the integrity of the banking system, or that it's not just the direct customers of the first failed bank who get hit, or that every business in the land depends on their bank remaining solvent if they are not to go bust.
    Indeed. It'd be Lord of the Flies.
  • Even the Telegraph realises the monarchy is on the way out.

    ‘The monarchy is a weakened institution… if we keep pushing, it will sink’

    After protesters heckled the King this week, is support for the royals crumbling?


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/15/republicanism-rise-scotland-driving-force/
  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    rcs1000 said:

    Reed said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Wall Street Silver
    @WallStreetSilv

    Credit Suisse now has a probability of default of 47%. That is up from 38% just a few hours ago.

    $CS is also offering crazy deposit rates of 6.5% to attract and retain deposits that are being moved out.

    Do we see a bailout by this weekend ???"

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1636002341408186368

    It’s almost as if retail banks have no business being in investment banking
    I really do wish RBS and HBOS had been liquidated back in 2008, the government should have bailed out depositors but everyone else involved with those two banks should have been burned. The moral hazard and expectation bailing them out created has been a pox on the country and the wider world.
    I honestly think they should have let the whole thing collapse in 2008. Yes there would have been mass unemployment for a while but the advantages.
    1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now.
    2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off.
    3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality.
    4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.
    So, are you proposing that depositors outside the protection scheme - i.e. all corporates - were not protected?

    OK. Royal Bank of Scotland sees a run on deposits. They are forced to close. Companies are unable to make payroll, because they have no access to their deposits because the bank is being wound up.

    Depositors at HSBC, Lloyds, etc. see the writing on the wall, and then try and withdraw all their deposits too, because they see what's happened at RBS.

    Everybody tries to withdraw all their money. Which bank, no matter how well capitalized, can survive even 20% of their depositors heading for the exit all at once. That's the nature of banking: you borrow short (deposits) and you lend long (mortgages).

    Are you planning on never stepping in in this scenario? I.e. every bank goes bust. Or are you planning on stepping in at some point to stop contagion.

    Are you going to protect all deposits, therefore creating moral hazard? Or just some fraction, which encourages bank runs if there is even the slightest concern that a bank might be insolvent or if there is even a fear that other people might think it could be insolvent. As the costs of withdrawing money are zero, the incentive is always to do so.

    And the resolution companies that are setup to recover mortgage debt after the dissolution of the banking system, are they going to foreclose on millions of homes simulateneously?

    Basically, at some point the Government and the BoE step in. There is no "oh, let it all collapse" option. The only question is when you do so.
    The complacency - which I suppose must be rooted in ignorance - about what would happen in a major systemic bank crash is a wonder to behold. People don't seem to realise that money doesn't come out of cash machines without a bank being involved, or that payment of their salaries depends on the integrity of the banking system, or that it's not just the direct customers of the first failed bank who get hit, or that every business in the land depends on their bank remaining solvent if they are not to go bust.
    Sure. Well in that case banks should be regulated as a utility and bankers paid public sector wages. If banks arent allowed to fail there is no justification for multi million pound bonuses. The big bucks should go to those actually taking personal risk not the heads i win rails you lose characters working in the big banks.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    rcs1000 said:

    Reed said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Wall Street Silver
    @WallStreetSilv

    Credit Suisse now has a probability of default of 47%. That is up from 38% just a few hours ago.

    $CS is also offering crazy deposit rates of 6.5% to attract and retain deposits that are being moved out.

    Do we see a bailout by this weekend ???"

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1636002341408186368

    It’s almost as if retail banks have no business being in investment banking
    I really do wish RBS and HBOS had been liquidated back in 2008, the government should have bailed out depositors but everyone else involved with those two banks should have been burned. The moral hazard and expectation bailing them out created has been a pox on the country and the wider world.
    I honestly think they should have let the whole thing collapse in 2008. Yes there would have been mass unemployment for a while but the advantages.
    1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now.
    2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off.
    3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality.
    4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.
    So, are you proposing that depositors outside the protection scheme - i.e. all corporates - were not protected?

    OK. Royal Bank of Scotland sees a run on deposits. They are forced to close. Companies are unable to make payroll, because they have no access to their deposits because the bank is being wound up.

    Depositors at HSBC, Lloyds, etc. see the writing on the wall, and then try and withdraw all their deposits too, because they see what's happened at RBS.

    Everybody tries to withdraw all their money. Which bank, no matter how well capitalized, can survive even 20% of their depositors heading for the exit all at once. That's the nature of banking: you borrow short (deposits) and you lend long (mortgages).

    Are you planning on never stepping in in this scenario? I.e. every bank goes bust. Or are you planning on stepping in at some point to stop contagion.

    Are you going to protect all deposits, therefore creating moral hazard? Or just some fraction, which encourages bank runs if there is even the slightest concern that a bank might be insolvent or if there is even a fear that other people might think it could be insolvent. As the costs of withdrawing money are zero, the incentive is always to do so.

    And the resolution companies that are setup to recover mortgage debt after the dissolution of the banking system, are they going to foreclose on millions of homes simulateneously?

    Basically, at some point the Government and the BoE step in. There is no "oh, let it all collapse" option. The only question is when you do so.
    The complacency - which I suppose must be rooted in ignorance - about what would happen in a major systemic bank crash is a wonder to behold. People don't seem to realise that money doesn't come out of cash machines without a bank being involved, or that payment of their salaries depends on the integrity of the banking system, or that it's not just the direct customers of the first failed bank who get hit, or that every business in the land depends on their bank remaining solvent if they are not to go bust.
    But don't you think in general that the amount of arrant stupidity that gets spouted on the Internet every day of the week about every subject under the sun, with absolute confidence, "is a wonder to behold"?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt increases potholes fund by £200 million

    Politically only of use if it is all spent within 10 miles of MY home.

    Even then, the LibDems will have a picture of a pointing councillor taking the credit for filling it!
    Will that help?

    Much of the issue is due to the too many groups who can dig up roads, and the poor quality of repairs.

    It will just spin the merry-go-round a bit faster.
    I've got the numbers for Cheshire East:

    Actionable potholes identified in last 12 months: 20484.
    How many repairs are inspected: Dunno - don't collect data.
    How many repairs were below standard? Dunno - don't collect data.
    How many repairs fail in one year? Dunno - don't collect data.
    Does the contractor guarantee quality? We would expect repairs to last 12 months,
    Does the contractor correct poor work free of charge? Yes (.. and how are they supposed to find out if they don't inspect?)

    Sounds as though the contractor will have a business strategy for repairs to last one year and one day.

    Like illegal migrants, the system needs fixing, not a stickyplaster.

    https://twitter.com/lkchdschh/status/1635682016828989440
    One of the issues with 'potholes' is that the sorts of repairs a contractor (or the local council) will do will never be able to last more than a year or so. Potholes often (but of course not always) develop where heavy vehicles are turning. The sorts of repairs that are done to 'fix potholes' are insufficient to prevent a re-occurrence almost immediately. What actually needs to happen is that the entire road surface is removed including the lower tarmac sections (roads are generally built of two or three layers of different grades of tarmac based on the stone size) and the whole thing is resurfaced. But this is a much bigger job and of course both more disruptive and more costly.

    Yes - it's about fixing the system. One other aspect is proper control of interventions by third parties - eg service providers digging holes in expensive new surfaces put in the previous day.

    What also needs to happen is that traffic laws are enforced to prevent, for example, heavy vehicles going down unsuitable roads by blindly following satnavs.

    Plus vehicles esp. HGVs parking on pavements smashing up the surface and the tactile paving which exists to help blind people navigate, creating tri[p hazards which put people in hospital. They know the laws are a mess so they don't give a damn. Quite a bit on Leith Walk in Edinburgh at present, but also everywhere.
    On our Devon lanes the problem is the modern mega-tractors, that just trash the tarmac road surface as if it were mud. If we get any hot weather and the surface melts, they can just take large chunks out for many yards.
    Clarkson in his Lambo?

    How can that be controlled?
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Reed said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Wall Street Silver
    @WallStreetSilv

    Credit Suisse now has a probability of default of 47%. That is up from 38% just a few hours ago.

    $CS is also offering crazy deposit rates of 6.5% to attract and retain deposits that are being moved out.

    Do we see a bailout by this weekend ???"

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1636002341408186368

    It’s almost as if retail banks have no business being in investment banking
    I really do wish RBS and HBOS had been liquidated back in 2008, the government should have bailed out depositors but everyone else involved with those two banks should have been burned. The moral hazard and expectation bailing them out created has been a pox on the country and the wider world.
    I honestly think they should have let the whole thing collapse in 2008. Yes there would have been mass unemployment for a while but the advantages.
    1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now.
    2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off.
    3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality.
    4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.
    So, are you proposing that depositors outside the protection scheme - i.e. all corporates - were not protected?

    OK. Royal Bank of Scotland sees a run on deposits. They are forced to close. Companies are unable to make payroll, because they have no access to their deposits because the bank is being wound up.

    Depositors at HSBC, Lloyds, etc. see the writing on the wall, and then try and withdraw all their deposits too, because they see what's happened at RBS.

    Everybody tries to withdraw all their money. Which bank, no matter how well capitalized, can survive even 20% of their depositors heading for the exit all at once. That's the nature of banking: you borrow short (deposits) and you lend long (mortgages).

    Are you planning on never stepping in in this scenario? I.e. every bank goes bust. Or are you planning on stepping in at some point to stop contagion.

    Are you going to protect all deposits, therefore creating moral hazard? Or just some fraction, which encourages bank runs if there is even the slightest concern that a bank might be insolvent or if there is even a fear that other people might think it could be insolvent. As the costs of withdrawing money are zero, the incentive is always to do so.

    And the resolution companies that are setup to recover mortgage debt after the dissolution of the banking system, are they going to foreclose on millions of homes simulateneously?

    Basically, at some point the Government and the BoE step in. There is no "oh, let it all collapse" option. The only question is when you do so.
    The complacency - which I suppose must be rooted in ignorance - about what would happen in a major systemic bank crash is a wonder to behold. People don't seem to realise that money doesn't come out of cash machines without a bank being involved, or that payment of their salaries depends on the integrity of the banking system, or that it's not just the direct customers of the first failed bank who get hit, or that every business in the land depends on their bank remaining solvent if they are not to go bust.
    Indeed. It'd be Lord of the Flies.
    I thought you were a socialist. If you are a socialist dont you agree banks should be regulated as a public utility and big salaries and bonuses ended. A business that isnt allowed to fail is not a real business.
  • kinabalu said:

    Just back from shopping and I saw somebody who most people probably wouldn't even recognize but for us here in PBland is like spotting a superstar in the Tom Cruise league: Peter Kellner. Peter Kellner!

    With his more (?) famous wife?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821



    It used to be the case that a mortgage of a house did actually transfer legal title to the lender. After all, the concept of a mortgage is of a transfer of title to a lender subject to agreement to transfer it back on discharge of the loan. LPA 1925 changed that for land (and thus things built on the land), so the legal title is "charged" rather than transferred.

    https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/8-107-6863?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)

    I have a wonderful original deed, dating from 1877, in which the farmer who owned our house and the farm around it mortgaged it all to three members of a brewing family in Lewes, for the sum of £5,000 (a lot of money in those days). It is indeed, as you say, structured as a transfer of title to the mortgagees, with an option for the farmer to buy it back after one year if the principal and interest is duly paid.

    As far as I can tell from subsequent records I've found, it was rolled over for about 12 years, when the farmer's son, (who had taken over after his father died) finally went bust.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Reed said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Wall Street Silver
    @WallStreetSilv

    Credit Suisse now has a probability of default of 47%. That is up from 38% just a few hours ago.

    $CS is also offering crazy deposit rates of 6.5% to attract and retain deposits that are being moved out.

    Do we see a bailout by this weekend ???"

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1636002341408186368

    It’s almost as if retail banks have no business being in investment banking
    I really do wish RBS and HBOS had been liquidated back in 2008, the government should have bailed out depositors but everyone else involved with those two banks should have been burned. The moral hazard and expectation bailing them out created has been a pox on the country and the wider world.
    I honestly think they should have let the whole thing collapse in 2008. Yes there would have been mass unemployment for a while but the advantages.
    1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now.
    2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off.
    3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality.
    4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.
    So, are you proposing that depositors outside the protection scheme - i.e. all corporates - were not protected?

    OK. Royal Bank of Scotland sees a run on deposits. They are forced to close. Companies are unable to make payroll, because they have no access to their deposits because the bank is being wound up.

    Depositors at HSBC, Lloyds, etc. see the writing on the wall, and then try and withdraw all their deposits too, because they see what's happened at RBS.

    Everybody tries to withdraw all their money. Which bank, no matter how well capitalized, can survive even 20% of their depositors heading for the exit all at once. That's the nature of banking: you borrow short (deposits) and you lend long (mortgages).

    Are you planning on never stepping in in this scenario? I.e. every bank goes bust. Or are you planning on stepping in at some point to stop contagion.

    Are you going to protect all deposits, therefore creating moral hazard? Or just some fraction, which encourages bank runs if there is even the slightest concern that a bank might be insolvent or if there is even a fear that other people might think it could be insolvent. As the costs of withdrawing money are zero, the incentive is always to do so.

    And the resolution companies that are setup to recover mortgage debt after the dissolution of the banking system, are they going to foreclose on millions of homes simulateneously?

    Basically, at some point the Government and the BoE step in. There is no "oh, let it all collapse" option. The only question is when you do so.
    The complacency - which I suppose must be rooted in ignorance - about what would happen in a major systemic bank crash is a wonder to behold. People don't seem to realise that money doesn't come out of cash machines without a bank being involved, or that payment of their salaries depends on the integrity of the banking system, or that it's not just the direct customers of the first failed bank who get hit, or that every business in the land depends on their bank remaining solvent if they are not to go bust.
    But don't you think in general that the amount of arrant stupidity that gets spouted on the Internet every day of the week about every subject under the sun, with absolute confidence, "is a wonder to behold"?
    Good point!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    kle4 said:

    Actual fair play to Guido Fawkes for actually quoting a variety of think tank responses to the budget, both positive and negative

    https://order-order.com/2023/03/15/centre-right-wonks-warmest-to-jeremy-hunts-spring-budget/

    Hmm, ok, how have you come across Guido output? By accident, I hope?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    edited March 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Some good ideas there but nothing dramatic, certainly on tax.

    Rather a shrug shoulders budget in essence

    It was a budget very much of a chancellor who wants to minimize defeat and then, as leader, conduct a party rebuilding project as a 'safe pair of hands'.
    Comedy gold.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited March 2023
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/15/bbc-apologises-to-mother-of-missing-woman-over-licence-fee-letters

    BBC apologise again:

    'The BBC has said it is “very sorry” for the distress caused to the mother of missing university cook Claudia Lawrence after letters about licence fee payments were sent to her daughter’s property.

    The broadcaster plans to apologise directly to Joan Lawrence after she told the Sun the letters, which she said had threatened up to £1,000 in fines, were causing her “untold heartache”.[...]

    Lawrence’s mother contacted the BBC in September 2022 but only a temporary pause was put in place and automated letters restarted in February this year.'

    [seems to be some confusion over BBC vs Licensing contractor.]
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    kinabalu said:

    Just back from shopping and I saw somebody who most people probably wouldn't even recognize but for us here in PBland is like spotting a superstar in the Tom Cruise league: Peter Kellner. Peter Kellner!

    With his more (?) famous wife?
    No, he was alone. Exciting for me though. The only bigger thrill would have been Sir. John. Curtice.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,785
    algarkirk said:

    Absolutely insane it's come to this....

    Open letter on behalf of 2 of the 3 candidates bidding to replace Nicola Sturgeon, demanding to know number of SNP members in electorate

    SNP HQ keeping details secret - leading to fears of vote rigging

    What on earth is SNP HQ thinking?




    https://twitter.com/chrismusson/status/1636018278119161858

    Answer, the SNP needs a leader with a bit of old fashioned morals who will cleanse the Augean stables. The odds for Forbes have been lengthening but intuition tells me she is not out of it.

    I watched a little of last nights debate (once I found where BBC One Scotland was hidden in the TV app). Forbes came over quite well - better than Yousaf in my opinion. If she hadn't made a mess of the opening stage I think she'd likely be neck and neck with him.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962
    I’m a guillotine man myself.


  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon's sin bin is over it seems
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    kinabalu said:

    Just back from shopping and I saw somebody who most people probably wouldn't even recognize but for us here in PBland is like spotting a superstar in the Tom Cruise league: Peter Kellner. Peter Kellner!

    I hope you mobbed him for an autograph ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Reed said:


    Sure. Well in that case banks should be regulated as a utility and bankers paid public sector wages. If banks arent allowed to fail there is no justification for multi million pound bonuses. The big bucks should go to those actually taking personal risk not the heads i win rails you lose characters working in the big banks.

    People who work in the bread-and-butter banks and building societies, like RBS, Lloyds, and the old Northern Rock, aren't in general paid megabuck bonuses, and the banks are in any case very heavily regulated.

    Of course there have been public-sector banks in the past. Their record is not exactly stellar. Even in modern times, the boring semi-public-sector German and Spanish banks were as badly hit as anyone in the 2008/9 crash.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    2008 here we come. Credit Suisse will need a bail out, if it’s not announced overnight then tomorrow could be a total bloodbath.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,799

    Even the Telegraph realises the monarchy is on the way out.

    ‘The monarchy is a weakened institution… if we keep pushing, it will sink’

    After protesters heckled the King this week, is support for the royals crumbling?


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/15/republicanism-rise-scotland-driving-force/

    The general ambivalence to the monarchy over the course of my lifetime has been hard to detect due to the genuine respect and reverence that the Queen was afforded.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Reed said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Reed said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Wall Street Silver
    @WallStreetSilv

    Credit Suisse now has a probability of default of 47%. That is up from 38% just a few hours ago.

    $CS is also offering crazy deposit rates of 6.5% to attract and retain deposits that are being moved out.

    Do we see a bailout by this weekend ???"

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1636002341408186368

    It’s almost as if retail banks have no business being in investment banking
    I really do wish RBS and HBOS had been liquidated back in 2008, the government should have bailed out depositors but everyone else involved with those two banks should have been burned. The moral hazard and expectation bailing them out created has been a pox on the country and the wider world.
    I honestly think they should have let the whole thing collapse in 2008. Yes there would have been mass unemployment for a while but the advantages.
    1. The bankers would have truly learned their lesson and we would not have the issues we have now.
    2. Property prices would have returned to sanity and young people would have been better off.
    3. The privileged top 3 to 5% would have taken deserved losses and this would have increased the sense of fairness in society and reduced inequality.
    4. We would now likely have a much more dynamic economy based on the respect of risk.
    So, are you proposing that depositors outside the protection scheme - i.e. all corporates - were not protected?

    OK. Royal Bank of Scotland sees a run on deposits. They are forced to close. Companies are unable to make payroll, because they have no access to their deposits because the bank is being wound up.

    Depositors at HSBC, Lloyds, etc. see the writing on the wall, and then try and withdraw all their deposits too, because they see what's happened at RBS.

    Everybody tries to withdraw all their money. Which bank, no matter how well capitalized, can survive even 20% of their depositors heading for the exit all at once. That's the nature of banking: you borrow short (deposits) and you lend long (mortgages).

    Are you planning on never stepping in in this scenario? I.e. every bank goes bust. Or are you planning on stepping in at some point to stop contagion.

    Are you going to protect all deposits, therefore creating moral hazard? Or just some fraction, which encourages bank runs if there is even the slightest concern that a bank might be insolvent or if there is even a fear that other people might think it could be insolvent. As the costs of withdrawing money are zero, the incentive is always to do so.

    And the resolution companies that are setup to recover mortgage debt after the dissolution of the banking system, are they going to foreclose on millions of homes simulateneously?

    Basically, at some point the Government and the BoE step in. There is no "oh, let it all collapse" option. The only question is when you do so.
    The complacency - which I suppose must be rooted in ignorance - about what would happen in a major systemic bank crash is a wonder to behold. People don't seem to realise that money doesn't come out of cash machines without a bank being involved, or that payment of their salaries depends on the integrity of the banking system, or that it's not just the direct customers of the first failed bank who get hit, or that every business in the land depends on their bank remaining solvent if they are not to go bust.
    Indeed. It'd be Lord of the Flies.
    I thought you were a socialist. If you are a socialist dont you agree banks should be regulated as a public utility and big salaries and bonuses ended. A business that isnt allowed to fail is not a real business.
    I'm a Hard Left Social Democrat. Mixed Economy. High Tax & Spend. Woke. Egalitarian Education System. I do think banking should be viewed more as a utility and I do think the bonus culture is largely to blame for its excesses and malfunctions. Let's debloat and reform it. All for that. But should the financial system be allowed to collapse? No way. Of course it shouldn't. Leave that for the movies and polemical flights of fancy.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Cookie said:

    Even the Telegraph realises the monarchy is on the way out.

    ‘The monarchy is a weakened institution… if we keep pushing, it will sink’

    After protesters heckled the King this week, is support for the royals crumbling?


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/15/republicanism-rise-scotland-driving-force/

    The general ambivalence to the monarchy over the course of my lifetime has been hard to detect due to the genuine respect and reverence that the Queen was afforded.
    True. But I can't see the electorate reaching a consensus where they want an elected president (i.e. a politician) instead any time soon.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Just back from shopping and I saw somebody who most people probably wouldn't even recognize but for us here in PBland is like spotting a superstar in the Tom Cruise league: Peter Kellner. Peter Kellner!

    I hope you mobbed him for an autograph ?
    Too shy when it came to it. Knees went to jelly.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Just back from shopping and I saw somebody who most people probably wouldn't even recognize but for us here in PBland is like spotting a superstar in the Tom Cruise league: Peter Kellner. Peter Kellner!

    I hope you mobbed him for an autograph ?
    Too shy when it came to it. Knees went to jelly.
    You could have thrown your knickers at him..
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    I’m a guillotine man myself.

    Has he stumbled on a silver bullet policy there?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    edited March 2023
    Here's some budget small-print - apologies if we've already done this.

    Hunt has limited pension TFC. This paves the way for future reductions in this limit (or freezes of this limit, amounting to the same thing).

    Below is from BBC website:

    "The lifetime allowance will be abolished from April 2024, but hidden in the Budget documents was the fact that the amount of tax-free cash has been limited to £268,275. If you’ve already taken that much out of a pension pot as a lump sum, then it looks like you will be limited to that, unless you had existing rights to higher tax-free amounts."

    As this affect DC pension plan values, this measure is even more skewed to favour high-earning public sector DB members.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Actual fair play to Guido Fawkes for actually quoting a variety of think tank responses to the budget, both positive and negative

    https://order-order.com/2023/03/15/centre-right-wonks-warmest-to-jeremy-hunts-spring-budget/

    Hmm, ok, how have you come across Guido output? By accident, I hope?
    Odd question - do you object to people seeing a wide variety of sources? We can’t get everything from the Grauniad.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Stocky said:

    Here's some budget small-print - apologies if we've already done this.

    Hunt has limited pension TFC. This paves the way for future reductions in this limit (or freezes of this limit, amounting to the same thing).

    Below is from BBC website:

    "The lifetime allowance will be abolished from April 2024, but hidden in the Budget documents was the fact that the amount of tax-free cash has been limited to £268,275. If you’ve already taken that much out of a pension pot as a lump sum, then it looks like you will be limited to that, unless you had existing rights to higher tax-free amounts."

    Yes, I'd noticed that. It seems very sensible, and somewhat compensates for what on the face of it looks like an extravagantly generous change in abolishing the LTA. And, yes, you are probably right that this heralds the gradual reduction of the maximum tax-free sum.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    Stocky said:

    Here's some budget small-print - apologies if we've already done this.

    Hunt has limited pension TFC. This paves the way for future reductions in this limit (or freezes of this limit, amounting to the same thing).

    Below is from BBC website:

    "The lifetime allowance will be abolished from April 2024, but hidden in the Budget documents was the fact that the amount of tax-free cash has been limited to £268,275. If you’ve already taken that much out of a pension pot as a lump sum, then it looks like you will be limited to that, unless you had existing rights to higher tax-free amounts."

    As this affect DC pension plan values, this measure is even more skewed to favour high-earning public sector DB members.

    Like senior doctors, then?

    Astute.
  • HSBC branch in Loughborough is currently a raging inferno and looks like it might spread to the town hall and Primark. A metaphor for the looming bank meltown, maybe?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    Stocky said:

    Here's some budget small-print - apologies if we've already done this.

    Hunt has limited pension TFC. This paves the way for future reductions in this limit (or freezes of this limit, amounting to the same thing).

    Below is from BBC website:

    "The lifetime allowance will be abolished from April 2024, but hidden in the Budget documents was the fact that the amount of tax-free cash has been limited to £268,275. If you’ve already taken that much out of a pension pot as a lump sum, then it looks like you will be limited to that, unless you had existing rights to higher tax-free amounts."

    As this affect DC pension plan values, this measure is even more skewed to favour high-earning public sector DB members.

    To expand on the above post.

    This means that individuals with a DC pension pot which is already at, close to or over the old LTA can now not worry about this and pay more cash into their pension plans within the annual allowance. However, any value over the old LTA limit of £1,073,000 will not benefit from 25% tax free cash entitlement - and so a key incentive to pay more into their pensions is taken away.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    DougSeal said:

    Leon's sin bin is over it seems

    Where did you Reed that ?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Off topic, but this may be important for some of you: "Exercise as a treatment for severe depression is at least as effective as standard drugs or psychotherapy and by some measures better, according to the largest study to date of exercise ...."

    As this can never be a blind study, the effect may well be that depressed people who are willing to partake in exercise have a better prognosis. I can certainly imagine that many of those with very severe depression would be very reluctant to take part in a study involving strenuous exercise.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon's sin bin is over it seems

    Where did you Reed that ?
    Nah, surely not. Doesn't sound anything like him.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/profile/Leon shows him as unbanned.
This discussion has been closed.