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A LAB overall majority slipping in the general election betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2023 in General
imageA LAB overall majority slipping in the general election betting – politicalbetting.com

For the past few days I have been following closely this betting market to see if the big move on Northern Ireland by Sunak has had an impact on the way the next election is being perceived.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Too early to judge any fallout from the Hancock Whatsapp revelations?
  • My legendary modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I did predict this.
  • Too early to judge any fallout from the Hancock Whatsapp revelations?

    The Help Out To Eat Out is the ticking timebomb for Sunak.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728

    My legendary modesty prevents forced me from to reminding you all that I did predict this.

    Better?
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,992
    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,151
    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Mind you, you could say the same about the Tories in 2010 vs Brown.
  • One of those who is keen to see Johnson return to Downing Street last week circulated an image of Sunak as Neville Chamberlain waving a piece of paper as if the Windsor framework was the appeaser’s Munich agreement with Hitler....

    ...One supporter of Johnson said: “By appointing Sue Gray, Starmer has inadvertently reinflated Boris. The privileges committee and Sue Gray gives Boris a platform to attack Labour. He loves that platform.”...

    ...Johnson has the support of up to 100 MPs and an inner core, led by Nigel Adams and Jacob Rees-Mogg, is helping. When the privileges report was published, his office was swift to issue a statement and a dozen or more MP allies took to social media to support him.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-was-written-off-now-hes-back-to-torment-rishi-sunak-again-mvtng7wvm
  • The star turn at a Tory MPs’ awayday last week was not Rishi Sunak but Andrew Strauss, the former England cricket captain who took a divided team and made them into world beaters.

    He told them a good team environment “provides you with a lifeboat” to pull together. “If the team environment is not good, then all you have is 11 heads bobbing up and down in an ocean of fear and self interest.”
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728
    edited March 2023
    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Very few people have ever gained 120 seats in one general election. Blair did it in 1997, Attlee in 1945, Baldwin in 1931 and Macdonald in 1929. Those are the only examples since universal suffrage in 1928.

    And many of the seats in theory needed are held by the SNP. For good or ill, taking seats off them will be a different ball game from unseating Tories.

    It is definitely a challenge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    One of those who is keen to see Johnson return to Downing Street last week circulated an image of Sunak as Neville Chamberlain waving a piece of paper as if the Windsor framework was the appeaser’s Munich agreement with Hitler....

    ...One supporter of Johnson said: “By appointing Sue Gray, Starmer has inadvertently reinflated Boris. The privileges committee and Sue Gray gives Boris a platform to attack Labour. He loves that platform.”...

    ...Johnson has the support of up to 100 MPs and an inner core, led by Nigel Adams and Jacob Rees-Mogg, is helping. When the privileges report was published, his office was swift to issue a statement and a dozen or more MP allies took to social media to support him.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-was-written-off-now-hes-back-to-torment-rishi-sunak-again-mvtng7wvm

    This is they key. One significant slip up from Sunak and Boris could be in. It's pretty clear more than 100 have remorse over their actions, they just don't see a path back for him.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,151
    An overall majority is not in the bag for LAB yet!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728

    The star turn at a Tory MPs’ awayday last week was not Rishi Sunak but Andrew Strauss, the former England cricket captain who took a divided team and made them into world beaters.

    He told them a good team environment “provides you with a lifeboat” to pull together. “If the team environment is not good, then all you have is 11 heads bobbing up and down in an ocean of fear and self interest.”

    Sounds a bit like the ECB under him.
  • ydoethur said:

    The star turn at a Tory MPs’ awayday last week was not Rishi Sunak but Andrew Strauss, the former England cricket captain who took a divided team and made them into world beaters.

    He told them a good team environment “provides you with a lifeboat” to pull together. “If the team environment is not good, then all you have is 11 heads bobbing up and down in an ocean of fear and self interest.”

    Sounds a bit like the ECB under him.
    I set them up and you smash them into the crowd.
  • kle4 said:

    One of those who is keen to see Johnson return to Downing Street last week circulated an image of Sunak as Neville Chamberlain waving a piece of paper as if the Windsor framework was the appeaser’s Munich agreement with Hitler....

    ...One supporter of Johnson said: “By appointing Sue Gray, Starmer has inadvertently reinflated Boris. The privileges committee and Sue Gray gives Boris a platform to attack Labour. He loves that platform.”...

    ...Johnson has the support of up to 100 MPs and an inner core, led by Nigel Adams and Jacob Rees-Mogg, is helping. When the privileges report was published, his office was swift to issue a statement and a dozen or more MP allies took to social media to support him.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-was-written-off-now-hes-back-to-torment-rishi-sunak-again-mvtng7wvm

    This is they key. One significant slip up from Sunak and Boris could be in. It's pretty clear more than 100 have remorse over their actions, they just don't see a path back for him.
    Yup, I did post that on PB earlier on this week.
  • ydoethur said:

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Very few people have ever gained 120 seats in one general election. Blair did it in 1997, Attlee in 1945, Baldwin in 1931 and Macdonald in 1929. Those are the only examples since universal suffrage in 1928.

    And many of the seats in theory needed are held by the SNP. For good or ill, taking seats off them will be a different ball game from unseating Tories.

    It is definitely a challenge.
    Time for this.



    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/04/04/a-reminder-starmer-needs-a-net-gain-of-124-seats-at-the-next-ge-to-win-a-majority/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728
    edited March 2023

    ydoethur said:

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Very few people have ever gained 120 seats in one general election. Blair did it in 1997, Attlee in 1945, Baldwin in 1931 and Macdonald in 1929. Those are the only examples since universal suffrage in 1928.

    And many of the seats in theory needed are held by the SNP. For good or ill, taking seats off them will be a different ball game from unseating Tories.

    It is definitely a challenge.
    Time for this.



    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/04/04/a-reminder-starmer-needs-a-net-gain-of-124-seats-at-the-next-ge-to-win-a-majority/
    It is perhaps worth mentioning as well that since 1928 the only time a majority of more than 21 was reversed in a single election to the Opposition having a majority of more than 21 was 1970.*

    If Starmer manages a Wilson-style majority of 3 (1974) or four (1964) he will have done bloody well.

    Personally, it's not what I'm expecting.

    *Discounting 1945 which was under rather unusual circumstances.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,547
    kle4 said:

    One of those who is keen to see Johnson return to Downing Street last week circulated an image of Sunak as Neville Chamberlain waving a piece of paper as if the Windsor framework was the appeaser’s Munich agreement with Hitler....

    ...One supporter of Johnson said: “By appointing Sue Gray, Starmer has inadvertently reinflated Boris. The privileges committee and Sue Gray gives Boris a platform to attack Labour. He loves that platform.”...

    ...Johnson has the support of up to 100 MPs and an inner core, led by Nigel Adams and Jacob Rees-Mogg, is helping. When the privileges report was published, his office was swift to issue a statement and a dozen or more MP allies took to social media to support him.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-was-written-off-now-hes-back-to-torment-rishi-sunak-again-mvtng7wvm

    This is they key. One significant slip up from Sunak and Boris could be in. It's pretty clear more than 100 have remorse over their actions, they just don't see a path back for him.
    Is it ?
    If I had to guess then it would be that “up to 100” means considerably fewer than 100.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    kle4 said:

    One of those who is keen to see Johnson return to Downing Street last week circulated an image of Sunak as Neville Chamberlain waving a piece of paper as if the Windsor framework was the appeaser’s Munich agreement with Hitler....

    ...One supporter of Johnson said: “By appointing Sue Gray, Starmer has inadvertently reinflated Boris. The privileges committee and Sue Gray gives Boris a platform to attack Labour. He loves that platform.”...

    ...Johnson has the support of up to 100 MPs and an inner core, led by Nigel Adams and Jacob Rees-Mogg, is helping. When the privileges report was published, his office was swift to issue a statement and a dozen or more MP allies took to social media to support him.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-was-written-off-now-hes-back-to-torment-rishi-sunak-again-mvtng7wvm

    This is they key. One significant slip up from Sunak and Boris could be in. It's pretty clear more than 100 have remorse over their actions, they just don't see a path back for him.
    I feel more optimistic about the budget due to the Bojo threat. It may push more of a growth agenda to keep Tory MPs happy, save Rishi's hide. I'm happy with that - I don't care whether Boris comes in again or not.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    One of those who is keen to see Johnson return to Downing Street last week circulated an image of Sunak as Neville Chamberlain waving a piece of paper as if the Windsor framework was the appeaser’s Munich agreement with Hitler....

    ...One supporter of Johnson said: “By appointing Sue Gray, Starmer has inadvertently reinflated Boris. The privileges committee and Sue Gray gives Boris a platform to attack Labour. He loves that platform.”...

    ...Johnson has the support of up to 100 MPs and an inner core, led by Nigel Adams and Jacob Rees-Mogg, is helping. When the privileges report was published, his office was swift to issue a statement and a dozen or more MP allies took to social media to support him.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-was-written-off-now-hes-back-to-torment-rishi-sunak-again-mvtng7wvm

    This is they key. One significant slip up from Sunak and Boris could be in. It's pretty clear more than 100 have remorse over their actions, they just don't see a path back for him.
    Is it ?
    If I had to guess then it would be that “up to 100” means considerably fewer than 100.
    He has probably got 100 backers, but if just 40 MPs would resign the whip rather than see him back he would then have to call an election.

    Where he would suffer the greatest defeat since the Chelsea Flower Arrangers beat Harrow by twelve sore bottoms to one.
  • Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    One of those who is keen to see Johnson return to Downing Street last week circulated an image of Sunak as Neville Chamberlain waving a piece of paper as if the Windsor framework was the appeaser’s Munich agreement with Hitler....

    ...One supporter of Johnson said: “By appointing Sue Gray, Starmer has inadvertently reinflated Boris. The privileges committee and Sue Gray gives Boris a platform to attack Labour. He loves that platform.”...

    ...Johnson has the support of up to 100 MPs and an inner core, led by Nigel Adams and Jacob Rees-Mogg, is helping. When the privileges report was published, his office was swift to issue a statement and a dozen or more MP allies took to social media to support him.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-was-written-off-now-hes-back-to-torment-rishi-sunak-again-mvtng7wvm

    This is they key. One significant slip up from Sunak and Boris could be in. It's pretty clear more than 100 have remorse over their actions, they just don't see a path back for him.
    Is it ?
    If I had to guess then it would be that “up to 100” means considerably fewer than 100.
    Only 50 turned up to the ERG meeting and in view of the toxic nature of Johnson I doubt even 20 will side with him
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111
    ydoethur said:

    The star turn at a Tory MPs’ awayday last week was not Rishi Sunak but Andrew Strauss, the former England cricket captain who took a divided team and made them into world beaters.

    He told them a good team environment “provides you with a lifeboat” to pull together. “If the team environment is not good, then all you have is 11 heads bobbing up and down in an ocean of fear and self interest.”

    Sounds a bit like the ECB under him.
    Slightly odd metaphor, too, given the current Tory view of folk in little boats.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728
    Every time I look at the forecast for next week, it seems to get chillier.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    It's quite extraordinary. The Tory Party took a long time to get over Margaret Thatcher, but the way in which Boris Johnson still dominates it, and British politics in general, is utterly bewildering. My theory is that because he was one of theirs the media - in this media-dominated age - just can't let go.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    The star turn at a Tory MPs’ awayday last week was not Rishi Sunak but Andrew Strauss, the former England cricket captain who took a divided team and made them into world beaters.

    He told them a good team environment “provides you with a lifeboat” to pull together. “If the team environment is not good, then all you have is 11 heads bobbing up and down in an ocean of fear and self interest.”

    Sounds a bit like the ECB under him.
    Slightly odd metaphor, too, given the current Tory view of folk in little boats.
    Not so much Sunak as sunka.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    One of those who is keen to see Johnson return to Downing Street last week circulated an image of Sunak as Neville Chamberlain waving a piece of paper as if the Windsor framework was the appeaser’s Munich agreement with Hitler....

    ...One supporter of Johnson said: “By appointing Sue Gray, Starmer has inadvertently reinflated Boris. The privileges committee and Sue Gray gives Boris a platform to attack Labour. He loves that platform.”...

    ...Johnson has the support of up to 100 MPs and an inner core, led by Nigel Adams and Jacob Rees-Mogg, is helping. When the privileges report was published, his office was swift to issue a statement and a dozen or more MP allies took to social media to support him.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-was-written-off-now-hes-back-to-torment-rishi-sunak-again-mvtng7wvm

    This is they key. One significant slip up from Sunak and Boris could be in. It's pretty clear more than 100 have remorse over their actions, they just don't see a path back for him.
    Is it ?
    If I had to guess then it would be that “up to 100” means considerably fewer than 100.
    At least 100 wanted him to be Prime Minister right now. It is reasonable to assume more than that still like him, they just didn't feel they could restore him without it looking completely ridiculous, or making the situation worse.

    If they come to think it couldn't get worse, more of them will take that gamble.
  • It's quite extraordinary. The Tory Party took a long time to get over Margaret Thatcher, but the way in which Boris Johnson still dominates it, and British politics in general, is utterly bewildering. My theory is that because he was one of theirs the media - in this media-dominated age - just can't let go.

    I am not sure that is true

    Yes Johnson has his devotees, but they are a diminishing number and the majority of conservative mps just want an end to this circus, as evidenced by Steve Baker, a prominent member of the ERG, and others this week
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    ydoethur said:

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Very few people have ever gained 120 seats in one general election. Blair did it in 1997, Attlee in 1945, Baldwin in 1931 and Macdonald in 1929. Those are the only examples since universal suffrage in 1928.

    And many of the seats in theory needed are held by the SNP. For good or ill, taking seats off them will be a different ball game from unseating Tories.

    It is definitely a challenge.
    Time for this.



    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/04/04/a-reminder-starmer-needs-a-net-gain-of-124-seats-at-the-next-ge-to-win-a-majority/
    An important chart. Shows how much Cameron still had to do in 2010, and how as noted how much Starmer has to do.

    Good news for Starmer is his internal opponents insist 2017 was a win because they got close, so if he gets close but falls short they cannot say it is not a win.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    Getting the Tories out of power is enough for me. If we get an overall majority I will be surprised and delighted.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    Friggin hell. If the Tory Boris lovers keep obsessing over Sue Gray, they deserved to be utterly wiped out at the next election.

    All they’re doing is reminding us all of how utterly appalling many of them behaved. And to top it off, just how unsuitable Boris was for the job
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,547
    Damn. Ellsberg has inoperable pancreatic cancer.
    https://twitter.com/DanielEllsberg/status/1631381696661827584
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    ydoethur said:

    Every time I look at the forecast for next week, it seems to get chillier.

    Where are you based? Looks “OK” down south, but expecting it to change
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728

    ydoethur said:

    Every time I look at the forecast for next week, it seems to get chillier.

    Where are you based? Looks “OK” down south, but expecting it to change
    Cannock, Staffordshire.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199

    ydoethur said:

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Very few people have ever gained 120 seats in one general election. Blair did it in 1997, Attlee in 1945, Baldwin in 1931 and Macdonald in 1929. Those are the only examples since universal suffrage in 1928.

    And many of the seats in theory needed are held by the SNP. For good or ill, taking seats off them will be a different ball game from unseating Tories.

    It is definitely a challenge.
    Time for this.



    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/04/04/a-reminder-starmer-needs-a-net-gain-of-124-seats-at-the-next-ge-to-win-a-majority/
    Why did Blair win in 1997? I don't think he did. People were just sick of the Conservatives. Blair was maybe unthreatening enough, but plenty of people never liked him even in 97. Right now enough people are sick of the Conservatives to give Labour a majority, will they still be sick of them next year? Probably.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Very few people have ever gained 120 seats in one general election. Blair did it in 1997, Attlee in 1945, Baldwin in 1931 and Macdonald in 1929. Those are the only examples since universal suffrage in 1928.

    And many of the seats in theory needed are held by the SNP. For good or ill, taking seats off them will be a different ball game from unseating Tories.

    It is definitely a challenge.
    Time for this.



    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/04/04/a-reminder-starmer-needs-a-net-gain-of-124-seats-at-the-next-ge-to-win-a-majority/
    It is perhaps worth mentioning as well that since 1928 the only time a majority of more than 21 was reversed in a single election to the Opposition having a majority of more than 21 was 1970.*

    If Starmer manages a Wilson-style majority of 3 (1974) or four (1964) he will have done bloody well.

    Personally, it's not what I'm expecting.

    *Discounting 1945 which was under rather unusual circumstances.
    The purely frequentist analysis makes more sense at the start of a parliamentary term when we don't know anything about popularity in 4-5 years' time.

    Even taking that starting point, the median LOTO had around 260 seats. They didn't need 124 gains and it's not likely to me that their election strategies would have involved trying to do so. Above all because winning 385 is a much more challenging task than winning 330 regardless of your starting point. You are getting into seats that more deeply support the incumbent government party. Johnson (from office) won the most seats of any Tory since Thatcher: "just" 365.

    Even if we take it seriously after all that, I think there are only 11 relevant elections: the ones where the parliament lasted 4-5 years and the opposition made gains. Exclude the remaining 5 where the opposition had 250 or more seats, which all led to victories, regardless of the number of gains. Of the 6 remaining, you have 1 change of government without a majority (2010), 1 quasi-hung parliament that ended up with a change of government (1950), four outright losses against Blair and Thatcher, but no majority.

    However, I don't think the frequentist analysis makes a ton of sense when we know the opposition is leading by double digits in polls. This sometimes reverses (Cameron, Miliband), other times not (Blair).
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,530
    edited March 2023
    Still find it hard to understand the decision to appoint Sue Grey at this point .

    She might have lots of experience and is well respected but the timing is either a mistake or part of a Labour plan to re-inflate Johnson to cause more internal Tory drama .
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    kamski said:

    ydoethur said:

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Very few people have ever gained 120 seats in one general election. Blair did it in 1997, Attlee in 1945, Baldwin in 1931 and Macdonald in 1929. Those are the only examples since universal suffrage in 1928.

    And many of the seats in theory needed are held by the SNP. For good or ill, taking seats off them will be a different ball game from unseating Tories.

    It is definitely a challenge.
    Time for this.



    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/04/04/a-reminder-starmer-needs-a-net-gain-of-124-seats-at-the-next-ge-to-win-a-majority/
    Why did Blair win in 1997? I don't think he did. People were just sick of the Conservatives. Blair was maybe unthreatening enough, but plenty of people never liked him even in 97. Right now enough people are sick of the Conservatives to give Labour a majority, will they still be sick of them next year? Probably.
    Plenty of people never liked every single PM who has ever governed the United Kingdom.
  • kamski said:

    ydoethur said:

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Very few people have ever gained 120 seats in one general election. Blair did it in 1997, Attlee in 1945, Baldwin in 1931 and Macdonald in 1929. Those are the only examples since universal suffrage in 1928.

    And many of the seats in theory needed are held by the SNP. For good or ill, taking seats off them will be a different ball game from unseating Tories.

    It is definitely a challenge.
    Time for this.



    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/04/04/a-reminder-starmer-needs-a-net-gain-of-124-seats-at-the-next-ge-to-win-a-majority/
    Why did Blair win in 1997? I don't think he did. People were just sick of the Conservatives. Blair was maybe unthreatening enough, but plenty of people never liked him even in 97. Right now enough people are sick of the Conservatives to give Labour a majority, will they still be sick of them next year? Probably.
    I think that misses a second - and very important - part of the equation, namely those (mainly) Tory voters didn't see Blair as a threat. They thought TB was decent enough where he wouldn't lead to a fundamental change in what they deemed important.

    The question is whether Starmer is seemingly seen as unthreatening. Certainly personality-wise, yes. More of an issue I think is whether people think the same of Labour as a whole. Not sure on the latter.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755
    I don't think the fact we can now move sausages around will be perceived as a great victory years down the line. However I expect a hung parliament as I don't see Starmer as being a good politician, he will fluff the campaign.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    nico679 said:

    Still find it hard to understand the decision to appoint Sue Grey at this point .

    She might have lots of experience and is well respected but the timing is either a mistake or part of a Labour plan to re-inflate Johnson to cause more internal Tory drama .

    Obviously it's the latter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Friggin hell. If the Tory Boris lovers keep obsessing over Sue Gray, they deserved to be utterly wiped out at the next election.

    All they’re doing is reminding us all of how utterly appalling many of them behaved. And to top it off, just how unsuitable Boris was for the job

    No, but don't you see how Boris didn't actually do anything at all, even the things he apologised for, because Sue Gray was orchestrating everyone's actions?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598
    nico679 said:

    Still find it hard to understand the decision to appoint Sue Grey at this point .

    She might have lots of experience and is well respected but the timing is either a mistake or part of a Labour plan to re-inflate Johnson to cause more internal Tory drama .

    Gray

    G R A Y



  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    EPG said:

    kamski said:

    ydoethur said:

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Very few people have ever gained 120 seats in one general election. Blair did it in 1997, Attlee in 1945, Baldwin in 1931 and Macdonald in 1929. Those are the only examples since universal suffrage in 1928.

    And many of the seats in theory needed are held by the SNP. For good or ill, taking seats off them will be a different ball game from unseating Tories.

    It is definitely a challenge.
    Time for this.



    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/04/04/a-reminder-starmer-needs-a-net-gain-of-124-seats-at-the-next-ge-to-win-a-majority/
    Why did Blair win in 1997? I don't think he did. People were just sick of the Conservatives. Blair was maybe unthreatening enough, but plenty of people never liked him even in 97. Right now enough people are sick of the Conservatives to give Labour a majority, will they still be sick of them next year? Probably.
    Plenty of people never liked every single PM who has ever governed the United Kingdom.
    True. And personally I don't think you can win as big as Blair did in 97 without quite a few people actively liking the leader, not just are sick of the party in power.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,080

    nico679 said:

    Still find it hard to understand the decision to appoint Sue Grey at this point .

    She might have lots of experience and is well respected but the timing is either a mistake or part of a Labour plan to re-inflate Johnson to cause more internal Tory drama .

    Gray

    G R A Y



    Maybe Keir not Kier is just collecting politicos with easily-mispelled names to form a kind of supergroup.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,457
    nico679 said:

    Still find it hard to understand the decision to appoint Sue Grey at this point .

    She might have lots of experience and is well respected but the timing is either a mistake or part of a Labour plan to re-inflate Johnson to cause more internal Tory drama .

    It's neither - much more straightforward. Starmer simply thinks Gray would be an ideal Chief of Staff - a fixer role more than a politics role. The sooner she is in place, the sooner she can help Labour prepare for government - that's why he didn't want to wait, as he knows there's likely to be at least a 3-month delay once she's appointed.

    I do think people are reading far too much into this. He wants her, as soon as possible, because he rates her. Simple.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,873

    nico679 said:

    Still find it hard to understand the decision to appoint Sue Grey at this point .

    She might have lots of experience and is well respected but the timing is either a mistake or part of a Labour plan to re-inflate Johnson to cause more internal Tory drama .

    Gray

    G R A Y



    “I can’t come to bed, someone is wrong in the internet…”

    Let it go, man.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    nico679 said:

    Still find it hard to understand the decision to appoint Sue Grey at this point .

    She might have lots of experience and is well respected but the timing is either a mistake or part of a Labour plan to re-inflate Johnson to cause more internal Tory drama .

    It's worked like an absolute charm. Rishi was just clawing back some credibility with his NI deal, then suddenly here we are: Boris and his lockdown crimes are dominating the headlines with his admirers claiming that it proves that Boris was a saint all along. Boris and Sir Keir's shared objective - the destruction of Rishi Sunak - couldn't have had a better boost.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Mind you, you could say the same about the Tories in 2010 vs Brown.
    At this stage before the 2010 general election Cameron was heading for a landslide majority.

    The debates saw Clegg get the biggest bounce relative to Cameron and Brown and led to a hung parliament. If Sunak does well in the debates against Starmer, which he should, then a hung parliament is still possible
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    edited March 2023
    Just opened a bottle of wine with a cork. Aren't they a serious pain in the backside? Why did we put up with them for all those millennia?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,080
    edited March 2023

    nico679 said:

    Still find it hard to understand the decision to appoint Sue Grey at this point .

    She might have lots of experience and is well respected but the timing is either a mistake or part of a Labour plan to re-inflate Johnson to cause more internal Tory drama .

    It's worked like an absolute charm. Rishi was just clawing back some credibility with his NI deal, then suddenly here we are: Boris and his lockdown crimes are dominating the headlines with his admirers claiming that it proves that Boris was a saint all along. Boris and Sir Keir's shared objective - the destruction of Rishi Sunak - couldn't have had a better boost.
    One of the ghosts of 1992-7. Whenever the government did get something right, there was a couple of days of optimism before some other scandal or fiasco turned up and they were pinged straight back to Shamblesville. Do not pass go or collect £200.

    I wouldn't be shocked if we're about to discover that Blair's brilliance was mostly being in the right place at the right time and not stuffing up.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    nico679 said:

    Still find it hard to understand the decision to appoint Sue Grey at this point .

    She might have lots of experience and is well respected but the timing is either a mistake or part of a Labour plan to re-inflate Johnson to cause more internal Tory drama .

    Gray

    G R A Y
    Maybe Keir not Kier is just collecting politicos with easily-mispelled names to form a kind of supergroup.
    I detect the hand of Alastair Campbell.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728
    EPG said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Very few people have ever gained 120 seats in one general election. Blair did it in 1997, Attlee in 1945, Baldwin in 1931 and Macdonald in 1929. Those are the only examples since universal suffrage in 1928.

    And many of the seats in theory needed are held by the SNP. For good or ill, taking seats off them will be a different ball game from unseating Tories.

    It is definitely a challenge.
    Time for this.



    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/04/04/a-reminder-starmer-needs-a-net-gain-of-124-seats-at-the-next-ge-to-win-a-majority/
    It is perhaps worth mentioning as well that since 1928 the only time a majority of more than 21 was reversed in a single election to the Opposition having a majority of more than 21 was 1970.*

    If Starmer manages a Wilson-style majority of 3 (1974) or four (1964) he will have done bloody well.

    Personally, it's not what I'm expecting.

    *Discounting 1945 which was under rather unusual circumstances.
    The purely frequentist analysis makes more sense at the start of a parliamentary term when we don't know anything about popularity in 4-5 years' time.

    Even taking that starting point, the median LOTO had around 260 seats. They didn't need 124 gains and it's not likely to me that their election strategies would have involved trying to do so. Above all because winning 385 is a much more challenging task than winning 330 regardless of your starting point. You are getting into seats that more deeply support the incumbent government party. Johnson (from office) won the most seats of any Tory since Thatcher: "just" 365.

    Even if we take it seriously after all that, I think there are only 11 relevant elections: the ones where the parliament lasted 4-5 years and the opposition made gains. Exclude the remaining 5 where the opposition had 250 or more seats, which all led to victories, regardless of the number of gains. Of the 6 remaining, you have 1 change of government without a majority (2010), 1 quasi-hung parliament that ended up with a change of government (1950), four outright losses against Blair and Thatcher, but no majority.

    However, I don't think the frequentist analysis makes a ton of sense when we know the opposition is leading by double digits in polls. This sometimes reverses (Cameron, Miliband), other times not (Blair).
    Before you attempt to blind me with frequentism vs Bayesianism, I should gently pick you up on a few points:

    1) No poll gave Blair as little(!) as a 13 point lead prior to 1997. The narrowest was 16 points. So your point is based on a misunderstanding there.

    2) You appear to be seriously suggesting that political leaders don't try to win as many seats as they can. Which only has to be stated that way to be demonstrated as bollocks.

    All leaders of the opposition try to win as many seats as they can. That it's unusual for them to win enough for a comfortable majority is not because of some pseudo-mathematical babble, but because it's bloody hard work.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    EPG said:

    Just opened a bottle of wine with a cork. Aren't they a serious pain in the backside? Why did we put up with them for all those millennia?

    Try opening it with a corkscrew next time.
    !!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728
    HYUFD said:

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Mind you, you could say the same about the Tories in 2010 vs Brown.
    At this stage before the 2010 general election Cameron was heading for a landslide majority.

    The debates saw Clegg get the biggest bounce relative to Cameron and Brown and led to a hung parliament. If Sunak does well in the debates against Starmer, which he should, then a hung parliament is still possible
    Well before that, Cameron's lead was collapsing. Right from January.

    Polling is more sophisticated now than in say, 1992 or 1997, but people can still change their minds when given an actual choice.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232


    nico679 said:

    Still find it hard to understand the decision to appoint Sue Grey at this point .

    She might have lots of experience and is well respected but the timing is either a mistake or part of a Labour plan to re-inflate Johnson to cause more internal Tory drama .

    It's worked like an absolute charm. Rishi was just clawing back some credibility with his NI deal, then suddenly here we are: Boris and his lockdown crimes are dominating the headlines with his admirers claiming that it proves that Boris was a saint all along. Boris and Sir Keir's shared objective - the destruction of Rishi Sunak - couldn't have had a better boost.
    One of the ghosts of 1992-7. Whenever the government did get something right, there was a couple of days of optimism before some other scandal or fiasco turned up and they were pinged straight back to Shamblesville. Do not pass go or collect £200.

    I wouldn't be shocked if we're about to discover that Blair's brilliance was mostly being in the right place at the right time and not stuffing up.
    Yes. A big hinderance for Sir Keir is Brexit - a whole chunk of the media will always be on his back simply because of his stance on it. It's ironic because Tone was massively indulged by the right-wing media - to the extent, as you say, that he could just sit back and let the Tories cause their own implosion - though he was arguably the bigger euro-phile.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    HYUFD said:

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Mind you, you could say the same about the Tories in 2010 vs Brown.
    At this stage before the 2010 general election Cameron was heading for a landslide majority.

    The debates saw Clegg get the biggest bounce relative to Cameron and Brown and led to a hung parliament. If Sunak does well in the debates against Starmer, which he should, then a hung parliament is still possible
    The Lib Dems lost seats at that election, so the Cleggasm bounce was surely a chimera.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    "H" being private by spilling more deeply personal stuff for the world's entertainment I see... 🤷‍♂️
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Still find it hard to understand the decision to appoint Sue Grey at this point .

    She might have lots of experience and is well respected but the timing is either a mistake or part of a Labour plan to re-inflate Johnson to cause more internal Tory drama .

    Obviously it's the latter.
    The thing about internal Tory drama is that it will periodically spark into life whether you intend to stoke it or not.

    There has to be some kind of rule about a key sign of the demise of a political party's prospects is when they seem far more interested in themselves than the public.
  • LATEST @OpiniumResearch
    /@ObserverUK poll

    Labour lead reaches 17 points, changes are with 15-17 February

    Con 27% (-1)
    Lab 44% (nc)
    Lib Dems 7% (-2)
    Green 7% (+1)
    ReformUK 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632108652596436992
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    GIN1138 said:

    "H" being private by spilling more deeply personal stuff for the world's entertainment I see... 🤷‍♂️

    Not how I'd try to deal with my personal demons personally, so I hope it's proving helpful for him.
  • LATEST @OpiniumResearch
    /@ObserverUK poll

    Labour lead reaches 17 points, changes are with 15-17 February

    Con 27% (-1)
    Lab 44% (nc)
    Lib Dems 7% (-2)
    Green 7% (+1)
    ReformUK 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632108652596436992

    Whomp whomp
  • The PM @RishiSunak's approval rating has seen a bounce this week, reaching his highest net approval since mid-December.

    Currently:
    > 30% approve of the job he is doing
    > 38% disapprove of the job he is doing
    > Current net approval: -8%

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632108902971060224
  • Keir Starmer’s approval rating remains relatively steady but up slightly on a fortnight ago at net +2 (up form net +/-0%):
    > 31% (-1) approve of the job he is doing as Labour leader
    > 29% (-3) disapprove.

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632109154696306691
  • The public do not yet have a clear understanding of the Windsor Agreement. A majority either haven't heard enough about it or simply don't know.

    Amongst those who gave us an opinion:
    > 19% think it is a good deal
    > 21% think it is a bad deal

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632109406308409345
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    The public do not yet have a clear understanding of the Windsor Agreement. A majority either haven't heard enough about it or simply don't know.

    Amongst those who gave us an opinion:
    > 19% think it is a good deal
    > 21% think it is a bad deal

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632109406308409345

    That should be worrying for the government as the coverage was pretty positive, so I'm sure they'd have hoped even though most won't really know about it would be inclined to say it was good.
  • While the jury is still out on the Brexit deal, a far larger proportion want MPs to back the deal than oppose it:

    > 38% want MPs to vote for the deal.
    > Only 14% currently want MPs to vote against the deal
    > However, 48% do not know either way.


    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632109658113466370
  • kle4 said:

    The public do not yet have a clear understanding of the Windsor Agreement. A majority either haven't heard enough about it or simply don't know.

    Amongst those who gave us an opinion:
    > 19% think it is a good deal
    > 21% think it is a bad deal

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632109406308409345

    That should be worrying for the government as the coverage was pretty positive, so I'm sure they'd have hoped even though most won't really know about it would be inclined to say it was good.
    I wonder if at this point the public are so fed up with the Tories that anything they do will be judged harshly.
  • Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,080
    kle4 said:

    The public do not yet have a clear understanding of the Windsor Agreement. A majority either haven't heard enough about it or simply don't know.

    Amongst those who gave us an opinion:
    > 19% think it is a good deal
    > 21% think it is a bad deal

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632109406308409345

    That should be worrying for the government as the coverage was pretty positive, so I'm sure they'd have hoped even though most won't really know about it would be inclined to say it was good.
    It was, but the good news aspect was incredibly short-lived. Monday's TV and radio, Tuesday's papers and then the circus moved on.

    And unless you live in NI (in which case, you're not voting Conservative), how does this deal improve your life?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,865

    My legendary modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I did predict this.

    Modesty is just one of your many, many virtues. It must be hard to be humble when you are so amazing!

    NI just shows how events can change perceptions over the next almost two years. Alternatively, if the polls don’t change significantly despite events, it will indicate that the Conservatives are beyond saving.
  • Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    We all said he was Britain Trump, even Trump himself said the same
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    O/T

    Paris Metro carriages aren't well designed. They have the normal train seating arrangement, which is not good when the trains are overcrowded.
  • Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Paris Metro carriages aren't well designed. They have the normal train seating arrangement, which is not good when the trains are overcrowded.

    At least they're never on strike
  • Keir Starmer bringing back Alastair Campbell + Peter Mandelson into the fold as I said a few months ago has been a work of genius.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911

    LATEST @OpiniumResearch
    /@ObserverUK poll

    Labour lead reaches 17 points, changes are with 15-17 February

    Con 27% (-1)
    Lab 44% (nc)
    Lib Dems 7% (-2)
    Green 7% (+1)
    ReformUK 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632108652596436992

    "It's the economy, stupid"

    There will be no Conservative recovery as long as inflation remains out of control, and prices continue to rise visibly and significantly in the shops month on month.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,588

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Paris Metro carriages aren't well designed. They have the normal train seating arrangement, which is not good when the trains are overcrowded.

    At least they're never on strike
    The Paris Metro workers are going on strike on the 7th of March (3 days time), I believe.
  • Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Paris Metro carriages aren't well designed. They have the normal train seating arrangement, which is not good when the trains are overcrowded.

    At least they're never on strike
    The Paris Metro workers are going on strike on the 7th of March (3 days time), I believe.
    I was being ironic.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,547
    nico679 said:

    Still find it hard to understand the decision to appoint Sue Grey at this point .

    She might have lots of experience and is well respected but the timing is either a mistake or part of a Labour plan to re-inflate Johnson to cause more internal Tory drama .

    It’s just a matter when she became available, according to today’s accounts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,547
    The United Kingdom will provide Ukraine with twice as many Challenger 2 tanks as it initially promised - 28, Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom Vadym Prystaiko said in an interview with Radio Liberty.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1632091286944587779
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,800

    ydoethur said:

    Every time I look at the forecast for next week, it seems to get chillier.

    Where are you based? Looks “OK” down south, but expecting it to change
    The last Met Office forecast I looked at was projecting this :


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909

    LATEST @OpiniumResearch
    /@ObserverUK poll

    Labour lead reaches 17 points, changes are with 15-17 February

    Con 27% (-1)
    Lab 44% (nc)
    Lib Dems 7% (-2)
    Green 7% (+1)
    ReformUK 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632108652596436992

    Broken, sleazy Tories and LibDems on the slide!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    Yet the assorted 'grandees' and 'senior MPs' helping their party by bumping their gums to Guardian journalists once again don't seem to have the cojones to put a name to their zingers.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111

    My legendary modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I did predict this.

    Modesty is just one of your many, many virtues. It must be hard to be humble when you are so amazing!

    NI just shows how events can change perceptions over the next almost two years. Alternatively, if the polls don’t change significantly despite events, it will indicate that the Conservatives are beyond saving.
    Evening, Fairliered. Just noticed there is a new book, 'Fairlie's Secret War' by Riddell (re WW2 armaments development) - do you happen to know if it is any good?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111

    kle4 said:

    The public do not yet have a clear understanding of the Windsor Agreement. A majority either haven't heard enough about it or simply don't know.

    Amongst those who gave us an opinion:
    > 19% think it is a good deal
    > 21% think it is a bad deal

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632109406308409345

    That should be worrying for the government as the coverage was pretty positive, so I'm sure they'd have hoped even though most won't really know about it would be inclined to say it was good.
    It was, but the good news aspect was incredibly short-lived. Monday's TV and radio, Tuesday's papers and then the circus moved on.

    And unless you live in NI (in which case, you're not voting Conservative), how does this deal improve your life?
    Not to mention pissing off the Scots even more.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited March 2023

    Boris Johnson: I did not have any parties

    Boris Johnson: I did not know there were any parties

    Boris Johnson: I did not think the parties I was at, were parties

    Boris Johnson: I have been stitched up by Sue Gray reporting on the parties I was at

    Nope.

    You’ve missed out “I’ve now learned there may have been parties, and I am disgusted and appalled they could have happened.” between 2 and 3 - followed by “you can’t blame Boris if others choose to ambush him with a cake.”

    If you add this to “rings of steel around care homes” “PPE contracts for Landlord of local boozer via a green lane to bypass scrutiny and due diligence with public money, for items that couldn’t be used and eventually got cut up by prisoners” and “when testing kits were scarce so best place for them care homes and hospitals government ministers had them diverted to their own home” that’s quite a pattern developing here.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111
    O/T but nice little piece re Pompeii for a Saturday evening.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/mar/04/pompeii-treasures-digs-city-disaster-romans-excavation

    My Latin master made me translate the relevant letter from Pliny the Younger as a special task. Never forgotten that (though the wording itself has almost completely vanished from memory).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    The public do not yet have a clear understanding of the Windsor Agreement. A majority either haven't heard enough about it or simply don't know.

    Amongst those who gave us an opinion:
    > 19% think it is a good deal
    > 21% think it is a bad deal

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632109406308409345

    That should be worrying for the government as the coverage was pretty positive, so I'm sure they'd have hoped even though most won't really know about it would be inclined to say it was good.
    I wonder if at this point the public are so fed up with the Tories that anything they do will be judged harshly.
    Oh, I'm sure. A. Tory MP could give his or her local foodbank £30,000 and half the constituents would blame him or her for making it necessary in the first place, and the rest would wonder where the money came from.
    How tragic.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,865
    Carnyx said:

    My legendary modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I did predict this.

    Modesty is just one of your many, many virtues. It must be hard to be humble when you are so amazing!

    NI just shows how events can change perceptions over the next almost two years. Alternatively, if the polls don’t change significantly despite events, it will indicate that the Conservatives are beyond saving.
    Evening, Fairliered. Just noticed there is a new book, 'Fairlie's Secret War' by Riddell (re WW2 armaments development) - do you happen to know if it is any good?
    Sorry, Carnyx, I haven’t read it. 🥺
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    edited March 2023

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Paris Metro carriages aren't well designed. They have the normal train seating arrangement, which is not good when the trains are overcrowded.

    At least they're never on strike
    The Paris Metro workers are going on strike on the 7th of March (3 days time), I believe.
    I was being ironic.
    If strikes close the Paris Metro, you will be able to use the Paris buses that are so great we let them run in London as well (you can tell by the Seine logo on some London routes).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111
    edited March 2023

    Carnyx said:

    My legendary modesty prevents me from reminding you all that I did predict this.

    Modesty is just one of your many, many virtues. It must be hard to be humble when you are so amazing!

    NI just shows how events can change perceptions over the next almost two years. Alternatively, if the polls don’t change significantly despite events, it will indicate that the Conservatives are beyond saving.
    Evening, Fairliered. Just noticed there is a new book, 'Fairlie's Secret War' by Riddell (re WW2 armaments development) - do you happen to know if it is any good?
    Sorry, Carnyx, I haven’t read it. 🥺
    Thanks! Will give it a try anyway. Was well enough reviewed in a local history journal.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited March 2023
    O/T

    At some Paris train stations there's a really menacing atmosphere. Can't wait to get back to London where nowhere ever feels like that, even in the early hours of the morning.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    At some Paris train stations there's a really menacing atmosphere. Can't wait to get back to London where nowhere ever feels like that, even in the early hours of the morning.

    Down in the Tube Station at Midnight, The Jam.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf4EFDGP4yg
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    edited March 2023
    On topic: who has gained here from Labour's slight drift in this market? Neither NOM nor Conservative seem to have gone up, indeed both have also drifted, possibly in proportion

    It looks to me like a simple reduction in the over rounds in the market, with 100.14 the current sum of all the probabilities, though I don't know what would cause that.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited March 2023

    LATEST @OpiniumResearch
    /@ObserverUK poll

    Labour lead reaches 17 points, changes are with 15-17 February

    Con 27% (-1)
    Lab 44% (nc)
    Lib Dems 7% (-2)
    Green 7% (+1)
    ReformUK 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632108652596436992

    Broken, sleazy Tories and LibDems on the slide!
    In header Mike says Opinium did best at last general election, on its own that doesn’t carry much weight with me. On its own it’s not great of assurance of getting the next election right, not like a strong record across a series’s of recent elections, which I don’t believe any firm recently managed, besides the methodology Opinium used before last election they have very publicly admitted they are not using anymore, it’s scrapped, instead they are releasing actual returns tampered under bonnet “swingback polls”. For me, how actually stable Opinium Lab and Con figures were, rarely more than 4% Lab lead through all last spring and summer, whilst Lab lead grew with other pollsters against the backdrop of the collapse of Boris political shareprice till his party threw him out number 10, the two or more up from others followed by 2 or 3 down again for me gains Opinium extra value through their consistency, where a 1 up or 1 down or even going nowhere matters so much more when you don’t often get much movement; plus the fact it’s got swingback built in, whilst we discuss so often how many DK might be making current polls inaccurate and we wonder how the DK will break, Opinium are already giving more back to the governing party than likely any other firms adjustment is doing; plus the fact they did do well at last election, makes, for me, this series of polls to seriously take notice of, not just as a snapshot for last week or the end of it, but for trend.

    And the conclusion from this evenings return is this is a truly awful opinion poll for Rishi and the Conservatives. The trend on their % down, which you could say is very MOE, but in Opinium terms I would argue it’s not. This poll this evening could be a particular moment, like when you remember it in future as moment a penny dropped - like in the Odessa File when there wasn’t much issue till he said “that man was my father.”

    Hope this makes sense, as I am drinking and dancing this evening.


  • Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    At some Paris train stations there's a really menacing atmosphere. Can't wait to get back to London where nowhere ever feels like that, even in the early hours of the morning.

    Down in the Tube Station at Midnight, The Jam.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf4EFDGP4yg
    40+ years ago....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706

    LATEST @OpiniumResearch
    /@ObserverUK poll

    Labour lead reaches 17 points, changes are with 15-17 February

    Con 27% (-1)
    Lab 44% (nc)
    Lib Dems 7% (-2)
    Green 7% (+1)
    ReformUK 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632108652596436992

    Main swing there LDs to Green and RefUK.

    Overall still a smaller Labour lead than many other pollsters with Opinium
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,837

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    So who is Britain Guiliani? I'm thinking Mogg.
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