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A LAB overall majority slipping in the general election betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,932
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Mind you, you could say the same about the Tories in 2010 vs Brown.
    At this stage before the 2010 general election Cameron was heading for a landslide majority.

    The debates saw Clegg get the biggest bounce relative to Cameron and Brown and led to a hung parliament. If Sunak does well in the debates against Starmer, which he should, then a hung parliament is still possible
    Well before that, Cameron's lead was collapsing. Right from January.

    Polling is more sophisticated now than in say, 1992 or 1997, but people can still change their minds when given an actual choice.
    Polls from March 2009 had a Conservative voteshare ranging from 40% to 44% and Labour voteshares ranging from 28% to 32% ie Starmer's current poll lead is not much bigger than Cameron's was then but in 2010 it ended up a hung parliament

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,932
    kinabalu said:

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    So who is Britain Guiliani? I'm thinking Mogg.
    Zahawi
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited March 2023

    While the jury is still out on the Brexit deal, a far larger proportion want MPs to back the deal than oppose it:

    > 38% want MPs to vote for the deal.
    > Only 14% currently want MPs to vote against the deal
    > However, 48% do not know either way.


    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632109658113466370

    That’s because, judging by PB, the deal, at least earlier in the week, popular amongst both remainers and leavers not a dividing line between them, because I think leavers were sucked in by the spin of huge concessions Sunak won from EU, not questioning what EU were up to by conceding, nor how “the impossible” had been achieved. leavers believed Stormont politicians had been given a real veto not a mirage - though in your credit TSE you have been explaining from the start the veto it’s a mirage - whilst remainers still choose to believe it’s a strong veto, and still think the border in Irish Sea was resolved, not the pressure largely transferred to the NI/ROI border instead. Leavers didn’t realise the agreement included the concession to the EU to close the green lane down themselves whenever they want, throwing border back into Irish Sea and everything back to square one.

    So it’s important to note all fieldwork for this poll was Thursday, Friday and yesterday, as the mists originally spun around WF were lifting and real thing better understanded. Hence half respondents don’t really know if it’s good or bad now, and already 1 in 7 think it bad and want it killed.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    So who is Britain Guiliani? I'm thinking Mogg.
    Zahawi
    Zahawi never did this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Guve7Y856kY

    (to my knowledge)
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    HYUFD said:

    LATEST @OpiniumResearch
    /@ObserverUK poll

    Labour lead reaches 17 points, changes are with 15-17 February

    Con 27% (-1)
    Lab 44% (nc)
    Lib Dems 7% (-2)
    Green 7% (+1)
    ReformUK 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632108652596436992

    Main swing there LDs to Green and RefUK.

    Overall still a smaller Labour lead than many other pollsters with Opinium
    Isn't that to be expected though, with their unique Swingback Anticipation Factor? If they're right, this is what they're predicting for 2024, not an election tomorrow.

    (That might be why they haven't picked up the perking up in Conservative ratings the others have. If it's soft Conservative voters returning to the fold, Opinium had folded them in already. Or it might be that the Windsor Bounce was very very short-lived.)

    Suffice to say that, if the final score in 2024 is 44-27, the Conservatives are utterly Donald Ducked. Even if you squeeze all the RefUK voters into the Conservative column and leave the Greens alone, that gets you to 44-35, which still works out as a healthy Labour majority.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited March 2023

    HYUFD said:

    LATEST @OpiniumResearch
    /@ObserverUK poll

    Labour lead reaches 17 points, changes are with 15-17 February

    Con 27% (-1)
    Lab 44% (nc)
    Lib Dems 7% (-2)
    Green 7% (+1)
    ReformUK 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632108652596436992

    Main swing there LDs to Green and RefUK.

    Overall still a smaller Labour lead than many other pollsters with Opinium
    Isn't that to be expected though, with their unique Swingback Anticipation Factor? If they're right, this is what they're predicting for 2024, not an election tomorrow.

    (That might be why they haven't picked up the perking up in Conservative ratings the others have. If it's soft Conservative voters returning to the fold, Opinium had folded them in already. Or it might be that the Windsor Bounce was very very short-lived.)

    Suffice to say that, if the final score in 2024 is 44-27, the Conservatives are utterly Donald Ducked. Even if you squeeze all the RefUK voters into the Conservative column and leave the Greens alone, that gets you to 44-35, which still works out as a healthy Labour majority.
    “If it's soft Conservative voters returning to the fold, Opinium had folded them in already. Or it might be that the Windsor Bounce was very very short-lived”

    Probably boths of those. But going backward at same time means finding less Tories. And probably you mean soft don’t knows getting softer?

    HY knows it’s a swingback poll so always likely to be low Lab lead, so why even mention it like it means something in relation to other non swingback polls?

    There’s spin. And then thers posting silly.
  • Hope you are well @MoonRabbit glad you're back posting
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    HYUFD said:

    LATEST @OpiniumResearch
    /@ObserverUK poll

    Labour lead reaches 17 points, changes are with 15-17 February

    Con 27% (-1)
    Lab 44% (nc)
    Lib Dems 7% (-2)
    Green 7% (+1)
    ReformUK 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632108652596436992

    Main swing there LDs to Green and RefUK.

    Overall still a smaller Labour lead than many other pollsters with Opinium
    Could you get off the swings and go over to the roundabout and try it from there?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Hope you are well @MoonRabbit glad you're back posting

    I didn’t post never fear Kier is here as pro Labour bias, but to take the piss out of Sunil.

    I’m now so drunk I’m tapping out.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Another implication of the Dominion lawsuit.

    “Fox Corporation’s blatant and cavalier act is a prohibited corporate contribution. The commission must immediately investigate,” wrote End Citizens United President @Tiffany_Muller
    https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1631801219655016448
  • Jonathan said:

    Sunak’s disposal of Boris has a poetic quality to it. Even if you are no fan of the prime minister, you have to be impressed by the way he has elegantly dismantled Boris.

    To be fair Johnson has done a very good job of dismantling himself and good to see conservative mps wanting him gone
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Paris Metro carriages aren't well designed. They have the normal train seating arrangement, which is not good when the trains are overcrowded.

    At least they're never on strike
    Very true.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    What's the average Labour share at the moment? 45%?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    At some Paris train stations there's a really menacing atmosphere. Can't wait to get back to London where nowhere ever feels like that, even in the early hours of the morning.

    The UK is and will always be the best place to live
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    edited March 2023
    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Nor me. The Tories will have been in power for 14 yrs. Time for a change. It shoukd be Labour's slogan.

    Advice. Get your inheritance tax planning sorted out before Labour gets into power.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    I still think its misnamed. He's got Trumpite elements, but it means people can overlook where he isn't like Trump, to their detriment - as John Oliver put it, its not exactly wrong or exactly right.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015
    Sunak’s NI deal was welcomed by the Nationalist side.

    Therefore somewhat ironic that it is two left-footers in the shape of Bozo and the Moggster who are trying to undermine it.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Hope you are well @MoonRabbit glad you're back posting

    I didn’t post never fear Kier is here as pro Labour bias, but to take the piss out of Sunil.

    I’m now so drunk I’m tapping out.
    :)


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,932
    edited March 2023
    kle4 said:

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    I still think its misnamed. He's got Trumpite elements, but it means people can overlook where he isn't like Trump, to their detriment - as John Oliver put it, its not exactly wrong or exactly right.
    Indeed, Boris won the popular vote in 2019 as well as most seats. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 even if he won the EC in 2016. Boris does optimism better than Trump even if some of their reclaim sovereignty themes were similar
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,932

    HYUFD said:

    LATEST @OpiniumResearch
    /@ObserverUK poll

    Labour lead reaches 17 points, changes are with 15-17 February

    Con 27% (-1)
    Lab 44% (nc)
    Lib Dems 7% (-2)
    Green 7% (+1)
    ReformUK 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632108652596436992

    Main swing there LDs to Green and RefUK.

    Overall still a smaller Labour lead than many other pollsters with Opinium
    Isn't that to be expected though, with their unique Swingback Anticipation Factor? If they're right, this is what they're predicting for 2024, not an election tomorrow.

    (That might be why they haven't picked up the perking up in Conservative ratings the others have. If it's soft Conservative voters returning to the fold, Opinium had folded them in already. Or it might be that the Windsor Bounce was very very short-lived.)

    Suffice to say that, if the final score in 2024 is 44-27, the Conservatives are utterly Donald Ducked. Even if you squeeze all the RefUK voters into the Conservative column and leave the Greens alone, that gets you to 44-35, which still works out as a healthy Labour majority.
    As I said earlier, the campaign could change everything. Starmer's lead is little different to Cameron's in March 2009 but Clegg made a breakthrough in the first 2010 debate and it ended up a hung parliament. I would expect Rishi to do very well in the debates too
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    I still think its misnamed. He's got Trumpite elements, but it means people can overlook where he isn't like Trump, to their detriment - as John Oliver put it, its not exactly wrong or exactly right.
    Indeed, Boris won the popular vote in 2019 as well as most seats. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 even if he won the EC in 2016. Boris does optimism better than Trump even if some of their reclaim sovereignty themes were similar
    Winning is irrelevant. They both lie through their teeth and demean the office they hold.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Nor me. The Tories will have been in power for 14 yrs. Time for a change. It shoukd be Labour's slogan.

    Advice. Get your inheritance tax planning sorted out before Labour gets into power.
    Surely if labour plan a big change in inheritance law they would put it in the manifesto? Right?

    #nonewtaxes
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    I still think its misnamed. He's got Trumpite elements, but it means people can overlook where he isn't like Trump, to their detriment - as John Oliver put it, its not exactly wrong or exactly right.
    Indeed, Boris won the popular vote in 2019 as well as most seats.
    57% of UK voters did NOT vote for Boris!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    LATEST @OpiniumResearch
    /@ObserverUK poll

    Labour lead reaches 17 points, changes are with 15-17 February

    Con 27% (-1)
    Lab 44% (nc)
    Lib Dems 7% (-2)
    Green 7% (+1)
    ReformUK 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632108652596436992

    Main swing there LDs to Green and RefUK.

    Overall still a smaller Labour lead than many other pollsters with Opinium
    Isn't that to be expected though, with their unique Swingback Anticipation Factor? If they're right, this is what they're predicting for 2024, not an election tomorrow.

    (That might be why they haven't picked up the perking up in Conservative ratings the others have. If it's soft Conservative voters returning to the fold, Opinium had folded them in already. Or it might be that the Windsor Bounce was very very short-lived.)

    Suffice to say that, if the final score in 2024 is 44-27, the Conservatives are utterly Donald Ducked. Even if you squeeze all the RefUK voters into the Conservative column and leave the Greens alone, that gets you to 44-35, which still works out as a healthy Labour majority.
    As I said earlier, the campaign could change everything. Starmer's lead is little different to Cameron's in March 2009 but Clegg made a breakthrough in the first 2010 debate and it ended up a hung parliament. I would expect Rishi to do very well in the debates too
    Not sure why - he's rubbish in debates. He couldn't consistently beat Truss, and despite my admiration for aspects of her premiership, she was no debater.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,932

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    LATEST @OpiniumResearch
    /@ObserverUK poll

    Labour lead reaches 17 points, changes are with 15-17 February

    Con 27% (-1)
    Lab 44% (nc)
    Lib Dems 7% (-2)
    Green 7% (+1)
    ReformUK 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632108652596436992

    Main swing there LDs to Green and RefUK.

    Overall still a smaller Labour lead than many other pollsters with Opinium
    Isn't that to be expected though, with their unique Swingback Anticipation Factor? If they're right, this is what they're predicting for 2024, not an election tomorrow.

    (That might be why they haven't picked up the perking up in Conservative ratings the others have. If it's soft Conservative voters returning to the fold, Opinium had folded them in already. Or it might be that the Windsor Bounce was very very short-lived.)

    Suffice to say that, if the final score in 2024 is 44-27, the Conservatives are utterly Donald Ducked. Even if you squeeze all the RefUK voters into the Conservative column and leave the Greens alone, that gets you to 44-35, which still works out as a healthy Labour majority.
    As I said earlier, the campaign could change everything. Starmer's lead is little different to Cameron's in March 2009 but Clegg made a breakthrough in the first 2010 debate and it ended up a hung parliament. I would expect Rishi to do very well in the debates too
    Not sure why - he's rubbish in debates. He couldn't consistently beat Truss, and despite my admiration for aspects of her premiership, she was no debater.
    He won most of the post debate polls in the leadership debates last summer amongst the public overall
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    LATEST @OpiniumResearch
    /@ObserverUK poll

    Labour lead reaches 17 points, changes are with 15-17 February

    Con 27% (-1)
    Lab 44% (nc)
    Lib Dems 7% (-2)
    Green 7% (+1)
    ReformUK 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632108652596436992

    Main swing there LDs to Green and RefUK.

    Overall still a smaller Labour lead than many other pollsters with Opinium
    Isn't that to be expected though, with their unique Swingback Anticipation Factor? If they're right, this is what they're predicting for 2024, not an election tomorrow.

    (That might be why they haven't picked up the perking up in Conservative ratings the others have. If it's soft Conservative voters returning to the fold, Opinium had folded them in already. Or it might be that the Windsor Bounce was very very short-lived.)

    Suffice to say that, if the final score in 2024 is 44-27, the Conservatives are utterly Donald Ducked. Even if you squeeze all the RefUK voters into the Conservative column and leave the Greens alone, that gets you to 44-35, which still works out as a healthy Labour majority.
    As I said earlier, the campaign could change everything. Starmer's lead is little different to Cameron's in March 2009 but Clegg made a breakthrough in the first 2010 debate and it ended up a hung parliament. I would expect Rishi to do very well in the debates too
    Not sure why - he's rubbish in debates. He couldn't consistently beat Truss, and despite my admiration for aspects of her premiership, she was no debater.
    Was she a mass debater?

    (sorry!)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    I still think its misnamed. He's got Trumpite elements, but it means people can overlook where he isn't like Trump, to their detriment - as John Oliver put it, its not exactly wrong or exactly right.
    Indeed, Boris won the popular vote in 2019 as well as most seats. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 even if he won the EC in 2016. Boris does optimism better than Trump even if some of their reclaim sovereignty themes were similar
    Well, I was thinking more that Trump was an outsider who seems to have cannibalised the Republican Party into his personal fiefdom, whilst Boris is an establishment figure who successfully exploited factional interests behind him, and was ousted when his personal appeal to those factions ended.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,932

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    I still think its misnamed. He's got Trumpite elements, but it means people can overlook where he isn't like Trump, to their detriment - as John Oliver put it, its not exactly wrong or exactly right.
    Indeed, Boris won the popular vote in 2019 as well as most seats.
    57% of UK voters did NOT vote for Boris!
    Over 50% of UK voters have not voted for any PM since Baldwin got 51% of the vote in 1935 on that basis
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,999
    CorrectHorseBattery3 said: "We all said he was Britain Trump, even Trump himself said the same"

    Trump says a lot of nasty things.
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    I still think its misnamed. He's got Trumpite elements, but it means people can overlook where he isn't like Trump, to their detriment - as John Oliver put it, its not exactly wrong or exactly right.
    Indeed, Boris won the popular vote in 2019 as well as most seats. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 even if he won the EC in 2016. Boris does optimism better than Trump even if some of their reclaim sovereignty themes were similar
    Observer front page

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1632130635232935936?t=VCF-rkp374eFT24S3qM9aw&s=19
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    I know what he is trying to say, people do use the term that way, but I think he may have missed the negative connotations of smothering.

    [Harry] also said he made sure to "smother" his children with affection to avoid passing on any "traumas" or "negative experiences" from his own upbringing.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64850024
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    I still think its misnamed. He's got Trumpite elements, but it means people can overlook where he isn't like Trump, to their detriment - as John Oliver put it, its not exactly wrong or exactly right.
    Indeed, Boris won the popular vote in 2019 as well as most seats. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 even if he won the EC in 2016. Boris does optimism better than Trump even if some of their reclaim sovereignty themes were similar
    Observer front page

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1632130635232935936?t=VCF-rkp374eFT24S3qM9aw&s=19
    Yes, he's going Trump. But what people generally imply when they call him Britain Trump is to suggest they are the same, or completely aligned. And Boris is shitty enough without suggesting that, which isn't the case on the details, which means he can wriggle off the hook of certain allegations. You save the Trump comparisons for moments like these, when it fits.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,932

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    I still think its misnamed. He's got Trumpite elements, but it means people can overlook where he isn't like Trump, to their detriment - as John Oliver put it, its not exactly wrong or exactly right.
    Indeed, Boris won the popular vote in 2019 as well as most seats. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 even if he won the EC in 2016. Boris does optimism better than Trump even if some of their reclaim sovereignty themes were similar
    Observer front page

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1632130635232935936?t=VCF-rkp374eFT24S3qM9aw&s=19
    I haven't yet seen Boris' supporters storming the House of Parliament!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    kle4 said:

    I know what he is trying to say, people do use the term that way, but I think he may have missed the negative connotations of smothering.

    [Harry] also said he made sure to "smother" his children with affection to avoid passing on any "traumas" or "negative experiences" from his own upbringing.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64850024

    Slathering? Smearing?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    I still think its misnamed. He's got Trumpite elements, but it means people can overlook where he isn't like Trump, to their detriment - as John Oliver put it, its not exactly wrong or exactly right.
    Indeed, Boris won the popular vote in 2019 as well as most seats. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 even if he won the EC in 2016. Boris does optimism better than Trump even if some of their reclaim sovereignty themes were similar
    Observer front page

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1632130635232935936?t=VCF-rkp374eFT24S3qM9aw&s=19
    I haven't yet seen Boris' supporters storming the House of Parliament!
    Give it time !!!!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    O/T

    Interesting observation: my dad was a student in London in the late 1950s and he says that even at that time the majority of black and white people got along pretty well with each other. It's a bit of a myth that they didn't.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,999
    Let's see. The spelling "gray" is more common in America; the spelling "grey" is more common outside America, notably in England. So, perhaps "Sue Grey" is an attempt to locate her correctly, even though that isn't her family name.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    Let's see. The spelling "gray" is more common in America; the spelling "grey" is more common outside America, notably in England. So, perhaps "Sue Grey" is an attempt to locate her correctly, even though that isn't her family name.

    Nah.

    Gray is Scots/Northern English. Calling the unfortunate lady 'Grey' is just incompetent southerner journos who don't have any respect for the full gamut of the language north of Watford Gap, or at least Leicester Forest.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Interesting observation: my dad was a student in London in the late 1950s and he says that even at that time the majority of black and white people got along pretty well with each other. It's a bit of a myth that they didn't.

    There were riots during WW2 when the US forces (stationed in the UK) enforced strict racial segregation amongst GIs visiting local pubs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bamber_Bridge
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,932
    edited March 2023

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    I still think its misnamed. He's got Trumpite elements, but it means people can overlook where he isn't like Trump, to their detriment - as John Oliver put it, its not exactly wrong or exactly right.
    Indeed, Boris won the popular vote in 2019 as well as most seats. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 even if he won the EC in 2016. Boris does optimism better than Trump even if some of their reclaim sovereignty themes were similar
    Observer front page

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1632130635232935936?t=VCF-rkp374eFT24S3qM9aw&s=19
    I haven't yet seen Boris' supporters storming the House of Parliament!
    Give it time !!!!
    Farage was always far closer to Trump ideologically than Boris ever was.

    In US terms Boris would be a RINO or a centrist Democrat like Sunak and Starmer would be
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    I still think its misnamed. He's got Trumpite elements, but it means people can overlook where he isn't like Trump, to their detriment - as John Oliver put it, its not exactly wrong or exactly right.
    Indeed, Boris won the popular vote in 2019 as well as most seats. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 even if he won the EC in 2016. Boris does optimism better than Trump even if some of their reclaim sovereignty themes were similar
    Observer front page

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1632130635232935936?t=VCF-rkp374eFT24S3qM9aw&s=19
    Yes, he's going Trump. But what people generally imply when they call him Britain Trump is to suggest they are the same, or completely aligned. And Boris is shitty enough without suggesting that, which isn't the case on the details, which means he can wriggle off the hook of certain allegations. You save the Trump comparisons for moments like these, when it fits.
    My main takeaway from this is that a certain part of the PCP adores briefing the anti-Conservative press with anonymous nastiness about fellow Tories. They did it to Truss (this could well be the same individual/s), now Boris. I'm open to counter-information on this, but they all seem to be on the Sunakite side of the party, also the quickest side to demand that the party unite behind the dismal decline manager.

    I am reminded of Anna Soubry, who when her preferred faction was in control, demanded loyalty to Cameron and insisted that fellow Tories should be 'bashing lefties' (bashing may not have been the term employed, but it was along those lines) rather than questioning the leader. Fast forward post-Brexit, evidently her 'lefty bashing' advice didn't actually apply to her - she decided to be as obstructive as she damn well could, before eventually defecting to start her own party.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Interesting observation: my dad was a student in London in the late 1950s and he says that even at that time the majority of black and white people got along pretty well with each other. It's a bit of a myth that they didn't.

    There were riots during WW2 when the US forces (stationed in the UK) enforced strict racial segregation amongst GIs visiting local pubs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bamber_Bridge
    And the locals were furious with the US Army (which included the Air Force at the time).

    My dad was training with the navy in Plymouth when two white MPs were called to some disorder in a pub with a couple of drunk Black soldiers, and just pulled out their Colt .45s and shot them on the spot. The shock went around the area instantly and he still remembered it 60 years later.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Matt Hancock aide criticised Dominic Cummings in expletive-laden tirade
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/matt-hancock-aide-criticised-dominic-cummings-expletive-laden-tirade
    … “Of all the bonkersness about Dom’s circus, the one I enjoy most is that he’s doing this to secure his place at the heart of a future Sunak administration.”

    Sunak replied: “Ha! Ironic given I haven’t spoken to him since he left!”

    In a later message, Sunak, who was chancellor at the time, described the time Cummings was chief adviser to Downing Street as “a nightmare I hope we never ever have to repeat”...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    At some Paris train stations there's a really menacing atmosphere. Can't wait to get back to London where nowhere ever feels like that, even in the early hours of the morning.

    The UK is and will always be the best place to live
    On what basis do you say that? If the comment had come from @leon at least I would know there was some decent experience behind it, and even then it would be limited. How on earth can you know that?
  • Nigelb said:

    Matt Hancock aide criticised Dominic Cummings in expletive-laden tirade
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/matt-hancock-aide-criticised-dominic-cummings-expletive-laden-tirade
    … “Of all the bonkersness about Dom’s circus, the one I enjoy most is that he’s doing this to secure his place at the heart of a future Sunak administration.”

    Sunak replied: “Ha! Ironic given I haven’t spoken to him since he left!”

    In a later message, Sunak, who was chancellor at the time, described the time Cummings was chief adviser to Downing Street as “a nightmare I hope we never ever have to repeat”...

    Depressing that the Tories are still allowed to govern this country. They're clearly children.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    edited March 2023

    Let's see. The spelling "gray" is more common in America; the spelling "grey" is more common outside America, notably in England. So, perhaps "Sue Grey" is an attempt to locate her correctly, even though that isn't her family name.

    I have the same issue with my IRL surname.
    The more common, simplified spelling is more prevalent in the US.
    Autofill will often default to the (for me, incorrect, form).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434

    Nigelb said:

    Matt Hancock aide criticised Dominic Cummings in expletive-laden tirade
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/matt-hancock-aide-criticised-dominic-cummings-expletive-laden-tirade
    … “Of all the bonkersness about Dom’s circus, the one I enjoy most is that he’s doing this to secure his place at the heart of a future Sunak administration.”

    Sunak replied: “Ha! Ironic given I haven’t spoken to him since he left!”

    In a later message, Sunak, who was chancellor at the time, described the time Cummings was chief adviser to Downing Street as “a nightmare I hope we never ever have to repeat”...

    Depressing that the Tories are still allowed to govern this country. They're clearly children.
    The lockdown files are the new expenses files. It is a massive coup for The Telegraph, and will have every senior Tory politician of the era quaking.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    Nigelb said:

    The United Kingdom will provide Ukraine with twice as many Challenger 2 tanks as it initially promised - 28, Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom Vadym Prystaiko said in an interview with Radio Liberty.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1632091286944587779

    I'm still struggling to understand exactly what the tank situation is. Lots of Leopards promised, then the rowing back. Latest I've seen is Germany possibly buying Swiss tanks to send to Ukraine as the Swiss don't want to send them directly.
  • Nigelb said:

    Matt Hancock aide criticised Dominic Cummings in expletive-laden tirade
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/matt-hancock-aide-criticised-dominic-cummings-expletive-laden-tirade
    … “Of all the bonkersness about Dom’s circus, the one I enjoy most is that he’s doing this to secure his place at the heart of a future Sunak administration.”

    Sunak replied: “Ha! Ironic given I haven’t spoken to him since he left!”

    In a later message, Sunak, who was chancellor at the time, described the time Cummings was chief adviser to Downing Street as “a nightmare I hope we never ever have to repeat”...

    Depressing that the Tories are still allowed to govern this country. They're clearly children.
    The lockdown files are the new expenses files. It is a massive coup for The Telegraph, and will have every senior Tory politician of the era quaking.
    Doesn't seem like it to me. It just proves what we already knew.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    .

    Nigelb said:

    The United Kingdom will provide Ukraine with twice as many Challenger 2 tanks as it initially promised - 28, Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom Vadym Prystaiko said in an interview with Radio Liberty.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1632091286944587779

    I'm still struggling to understand exactly what the tank situation is. Lots of Leopards promised, then the rowing back. Latest I've seen is Germany possibly buying Swiss tanks to send to Ukraine as the Swiss don't want to send them directly.
    I think the main factor is that a lot of Europe's tanks are in an awful state of repair, so the number that can be sent is limited by the number that can be made usable.

    One way or another a bunch will be sent, but after that they're going to need to build some new ones, or convince a country like India to sell some of its store of tanks.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,785
    dixiedean said:

    Let's see. The spelling "gray" is more common in America; the spelling "grey" is more common outside America, notably in England. So, perhaps "Sue Grey" is an attempt to locate her correctly, even though that isn't her family name.

    I have the same issue with my IRL surname.
    The more common, simplified spelling is more prevalent in the US.
    Autofill will often default to the (for me, incorrect, form).
    You are Dean Color, and I claim my £5...
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Forgive me, I haven’t been closely following the WhatsApp’s.

    When the WhatsApp’s leak first broke, it did look to me like the cherry on the trifle may turn out to be the covid contracts.

    Have I missed this angle? Maybe it isn’t in there? Or am I right, this is going to be the final big bang?

    I assume, one thing the tele learned from expenses was they need to be strategic to have full effect.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    ohnotnow said:

    dixiedean said:

    Let's see. The spelling "gray" is more common in America; the spelling "grey" is more common outside America, notably in England. So, perhaps "Sue Grey" is an attempt to locate her correctly, even though that isn't her family name.

    I have the same issue with my IRL surname.
    The more common, simplified spelling is more prevalent in the US.
    Autofill will often default to the (for me, incorrect, form).
    You are Dean Color, and I claim my £5...
    Dixie Aluminum.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,268

    Nigelb said:

    The United Kingdom will provide Ukraine with twice as many Challenger 2 tanks as it initially promised - 28, Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom Vadym Prystaiko said in an interview with Radio Liberty.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1632091286944587779

    I'm still struggling to understand exactly what the tank situation is. Lots of Leopards promised, then the rowing back. Latest I've seen is Germany possibly buying Swiss tanks to send to Ukraine as the Swiss don't want to send them directly.
    Large numbers of tanks in Europe are non runners. The German military is especially chaotic and there is some doubt at to whether they know what works or not.

    The Swiss, being the Swiss, have probably maintained theirs in perfect mechanical condition.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    I still think its misnamed. He's got Trumpite elements, but it means people can overlook where he isn't like Trump, to their detriment - as John Oliver put it, its not exactly wrong or exactly right.
    Indeed, Boris won the popular vote in 2019 as well as most seats. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 even if he won the EC in 2016. Boris does optimism better than Trump even if some of their reclaim sovereignty themes were similar
    Observer front page

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1632130635232935936?t=VCF-rkp374eFT24S3qM9aw&s=19
    I haven't yet seen Boris' supporters storming the House of Parliament!
    Give it time !!!!
    Farage was always far closer to Trump ideologically than Boris ever was.

    In US terms Boris would be a RINO or a centrist Democrat like Sunak and Starmer would be
    It's not about ideology, though, is it?
    It's about lying, distortion and obfuscation as the default setting.
    But people do sometimes say its about ideology, they'd describe policy as Trumpian. Which is generally pretty easy to refute. So its worth specifying in which particular ways someone is Trumpish. Clearer how to counter them that way.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Tory support for Boris Johnson is draining away tonight as party grandees likened his response to a cross-party parliamentary inquiry into whether he misled MPs over “Partygate” to the lies of former US president Donald Trump.

    Several Conservative MPs in senior positions reacted with disbelief after Johnson and his dwindling band of allies questioned the work of the independent Commons privileges committee and accused it of an “outrageous level of bias”, after it said on Friday there was a significant volume of evidence suggesting that the former PM may have misled parliament.

    Referring to Johnson and his backers, a senior MP who is well informed about Partygate said: “They have gone full Trump. It is wicked. Where will this end? They are desperate.” Another grandee said Johnson was “just like Trump, saying black is white, white is black”.

    Tobias Ellwood, Tory chair of the defence select committee, said the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, had shown real leadership with last week’s deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, but warned that the progress risked being undermined by Johnson. In a reference to the ex-PM’s behaviour, Ellwood added: “If we now stay united and disciplined we could win the general election but not if this latest distraction turns into a Trumpian drag anchor.”

    Other Tories in high positions in the party said Johnson may have committed contempt of parliament in the past 48 hours alone – by attacking, deriding and undermining the work of a committee which was specifically authorised by the Commons to look into whether he had told the truth to MPs.

    Sir Bob Neill, Tory chair of the all-party justice select committee and a lawyer, told the Observer: “It is wrong for anyone to try to undermine the work of a parliamentary committee.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/04/hes-gone-full-trump-tories-turn-on-boris-johnson-over-partygate

    How well I remember the outrage at the unfair and inaccurate Britain Trump meme..
    I still think its misnamed. He's got Trumpite elements, but it means people can overlook where he isn't like Trump, to their detriment - as John Oliver put it, its not exactly wrong or exactly right.
    Indeed, Boris won the popular vote in 2019 as well as most seats. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 even if he won the EC in 2016. Boris does optimism better than Trump even if some of their reclaim sovereignty themes were similar
    Observer front page

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1632130635232935936?t=VCF-rkp374eFT24S3qM9aw&s=19
    I haven't yet seen Boris' supporters storming the House of Parliament!
    Give it time !!!!
    Farage was always far closer to Trump ideologically than Boris ever was.

    In US terms Boris would be a RINO or a centrist Democrat like Sunak and Starmer would be
    It's not about ideology, though, is it?
    It's about lying, distortion and obfuscation as the default setting.
    But people do sometimes say its about ideology, they'd describe policy as Trumpian. Which is generally pretty easy to refute. So its worth specifying in which particular ways someone is Trumpish. Clearer how to counter them that way.
    Yes, but the context here is other Tories calling out the latest Boris attempt to deny reality in a Trumpian manner.
    The politics of the two are obviously different, but that's hardly a defence for his self serving lies.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,636
    https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1632127772909883392

    “Matt Hancock asked when the government should "deploy" the next COVID variant to "frighten the pants off" the public”
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Nor me. The Tories will have been in power for 14 yrs. Time for a change. It shoukd be Labour's slogan.

    Advice. Get your inheritance tax planning sorted out before Labour gets into power.
    Surely if labour plan a big change in inheritance law they would put it in the manifesto? Right?

    #nonewtaxes
    Wrong
    Never trust a politician especially a manifesto . You mustbe quite young.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: quick note before I do ye olde pre-race ramble. Leclerc did not have a car problem in the third session. It was a deliberate choice not to run again to save a set of softs for the start, which may prove cunning or may prove to be a Ferrari strategy.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    New thread.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,390

    While the jury is still out on the Brexit deal, a far larger proportion want MPs to back the deal than oppose it:

    > 38% want MPs to vote for the deal.
    > Only 14% currently want MPs to vote against the deal
    > However, 48% do not know either way.


    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1632109658113466370

    That’s because, judging by PB, the deal, at least earlier in the week, popular amongst both remainers and leavers not a dividing line between them, because I think leavers were sucked in by the spin of huge concessions Sunak won from EU, not questioning what EU were up to by conceding, nor how “the impossible” had been achieved. leavers believed Stormont politicians had been given a real veto not a mirage - though in your credit TSE you have been explaining from the start the veto it’s a mirage - whilst remainers still choose to believe it’s a strong veto, and still think the border in Irish Sea was resolved, not the pressure largely transferred to the NI/ROI border instead. Leavers didn’t realise the agreement included the concession to the EU to close the green lane down themselves whenever they want, throwing border back into Irish Sea and everything back to square one.

    So it’s important to note all fieldwork for this poll was Thursday, Friday and yesterday, as the mists originally spun around WF were lifting and real thing better understanded. Hence half respondents don’t really know if it’s good or bad now, and already 1 in 7 think it bad and want it killed.
    TSE has posted one tweet which could be interpreted that way, which didn’t say quite what you thought it did.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    WillG said:

    If Labour can't win an overall majority after the last couple of years, that would be an appalling result. Don't see it happening.

    Nor me. The Tories will have been in power for 14 yrs. Time for a change. It shoukd be Labour's slogan.

    Advice. Get your inheritance tax planning sorted out before Labour gets into power.
    Surely if labour plan a big change in inheritance law they would put it in the manifesto? Right?

    #nonewtaxes
    Wrong
    Never trust a politician especially a manifesto . You mustbe quite young.....
    No, sarcastic!
This discussion has been closed.