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Why the next election might not be a 1997 redux – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2023 in General
Why the next election might not be a 1997 redux – politicalbetting.com

Two other big differences between pre-1997 and now: 1. As Starmer repeatedly says, Lab starts from so much further back: 202 seats vs 2712. Electoral geography is adverse for Lab: 1997 vote shares would give Lab 60 fewer seats, per @ElectCalculushttps://t.co/fhgc7aGCVD

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Comments

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    First like Jeremy in Islington next year.... these comparisons with Blair are a bit misleading the truth is TB was a real unknown in 1996 and early '97. I would argue TB only came to the fore during the GE campaign and his first term. So although I agree KS needs to raise his game, trying to outBlair St Tony isnt the aim.... KS has to build a coalition of voters from Red Wall, through Scotland & Wales, the Midlands and London: thats a massive challenge and I agree with TSE a big majority is a massive ask. The Tory Party's ability to re-invent itself is also not to be underestimated..... I cant see how it will fight in 2024 but it will fight on a very different platform from last time.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    edited February 2023
    The spectacle of the last two Tory prime ministers, having failed abysmally in their own premierships, trying to undermine their successor in the most public way possible, is an absolute joy to behold.

    Is it too much to hope that Theresa May will join in? Or David Cameron?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097
    edited February 2023
    "I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game." @TSE

    Good morning all.

    1. Starmer doesn't need to up his game

    2. It's good that he is no Blair. Boris and Cameron have made that kind of politician toxic.

    3. Starmer has expunged Corbyn's anti-semitic legacy

    4. Labour don't need Scotland but they are recovering well there.

    5. Believe the polls

    6. I am not merely confident, I am certain, that Labour will win a thumping great majority. We have witnessed a sea change.

    7. But you are right. This won't be 1997 Redux. It will be far, far, worse for the tories. In 1997 the economy was in great shape. Now it has tanked. Everyone I know is STILL talking about that Liz Truss budget and Labour will continue to remind us of it. The tories have done 1000x worse in the last 4 years than they did back then on every level, including corruption and sleaze. Which is really saying something.

    They are in for an absolute pounding. 100-150 seats but my latest reckoning is that they may go sub 100.

  • It is of course right to recognise that Labour is coming from a far harder starting position than in 1997, and that the electoral geography is not in its favour.

    It does not follow from that that Starmer "needs to up his game". Starmer has done remarkably well to turn the -20% polling deficit he inherited into a 20% or so poll lead. Even if that lead has moderated significantly by the GE, it will still be a huge achievement for Starmer if Labour ends up in a position to govern with some sort of agreement with the LDs, tacit or overt.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Phil, also worth noting much of the work was done for Starmer, starting with the foolish decision of the PCP making an egotistical buffoon PM...
  • Heathener said:

    "I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game." @TSE

    Good morning all.

    1. Starmer doesn't need to up his game

    2. It's good that he is no Blair. Boris and Cameron have made that kind of politician toxic.

    3. Starmer has expunged Corbyn's anti-semitic legacy

    4. Labour don't need Scotland but they are recovering well there.

    5. Believe the polls

    6. I am not merely confident, I am certain, that Labour will win a thumping great majority. We have witnessed a sea change.

    7. But you are right. This won't be 1997 Redux. It will be far, far, worse for the tories. In 1997 the economy was in great shape. Now it has tanked. Everyone I know is STILL talking about that Liz Truss budget and Labour will continue to remind us of it. The tories have done 1000x worse in the last 4 years than they did back then on every level, including corruption and sleaze. Which is really saying something.

    They are in for an absolute pounding. 100-150 seats but my latest reckoning is that they may go sub 100.

    I hope you’re right.

    Whatever the respective MP tallies end up being, I would like to see a decisive, unequivocal rejection of the Tories and the havoc they have wrought on this country over the past 13 years. They deserve it. It will take a long time to repair the damage they’ve wilfully, gleefully caused. They need to sideline ERG types. Their right wing are the lunatics in charge of the asylum, gleefully burning down the country, and making millions of people’s lives poorer in myriad, incremental ways, in pursuit of their naive, simplistic ideological illusions.
  • - “… if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views…”

    Oh look! Second post-resignation poll in a row with SNP well above that YouGov level (which was 38% incidentally, not the 29% shouted out in the PB piece.)

    Funny how neither the Savanta (SNP 42%) nor this Survation poll got reported by PB. I thought this was meant to be a service for punters?

    The SNP remain in a strong position in our 1st poll that has fieldwork conducted after Nicola Sturgeon’s surprise resignation last week. At 43% the party would be just 2% shy of their solid 2019 Westminster showing.

    SNP 43% (+1)
    LAB 30% (+1)
    CON 17% (-)
    LD 6% (-1)
    Others 3% (-1)


    https://twitter.com/survation/status/1627002594676690946?s=46&t=eNsBLMSATSn17GYQMqF1Tw
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    I was confident Cameron, with his enormous poll lead and up against a man who was rumoured to be on medication for various psychiatric disorders, would win big in 2010.

    I was wrong.

    And no, it wasn’t the debates. His polling figures slumped before that. In fact, he was fortunate that Labour’s figures never really recovered either.

    Incidentally, nice to have some light outside.
  • Heathener said:

    "I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game." @TSE

    Good morning all.

    1. Starmer doesn't need to up his game

    2. It's good that he is no Blair. Boris and Cameron have made that kind of politician toxic.

    3. Starmer has expunged Corbyn's anti-semitic legacy

    4. Labour don't need Scotland but they are recovering well there.

    5. Believe the polls

    6. I am not merely confident, I am certain, that Labour will win a thumping great majority. We have witnessed a sea change.

    7. But you are right. This won't be 1997 Redux. It will be far, far, worse for the tories. In 1997 the economy was in great shape. Now it has tanked. Everyone I know is STILL talking about that Liz Truss budget and Labour will continue to remind us of it. The tories have done 1000x worse in the last 4 years than they did back then on every level, including corruption and sleaze. Which is really saying something.

    They are in for an absolute pounding. 100-150 seats but my latest reckoning is that they may go sub 100.

    Did you hear that dreadful Rishi Sunak speech in Munich? OMFG. He sounds like a precocious 14 year old reading his script (the teacher gave it a C+) in front of the class, very poorly. Really eye-wateringly poorly. This man is going to get savaged during the election campaign.

    The 100-150 band ought to be possible with a half-decent leader. But the Tories don’t have a half-decent leader.
  • This is the greatest war film ever made
    There's no Hollywood gloss in this heroic masterpiece. Instead, it's ordinary men doing extraordinary things

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/0/greatest-war-film-ever-made/ (£££)

    The Cruel Sea. (BAFTAs tonight btw.)
  • ..... I cant see how it will fight in 2024 but it will fight on a very different platform from last time.

    You see this is the root of the problem. An organisation cannot wildly swing about its strategy from year to year and expect to be taken seriously by the target audience. You lose all credibility, because people eventually realise that you don’t have the faintest clue what you’re on about and are just making it up as you’re going along. They know that in a couple of years time you’ll just be saying something different anyway, so even if you propose something the audience like, they have almost no faith you’ll carry it out if you meet resistance (which politicians always do).

    Further, the road is running out. Last year 2024 still seemed an awful long way away. Now it doesn’t. You say you “cant see how it will fight in 2024”. That encapsulates the entire problem. It’s far too late to be working on the fundamentals.
  • Chris said:

    The spectacle of the last two Tory prime ministers, having failed abysmally in their own premierships, trying to undermine their successor in the most public way possible, is an absolute joy to behold.

    Is it too much to hope that Theresa May will join in? Or David Cameron?

    Yes, because they've got more class than that. Possibly not much more in Cameron's case, but sufficiently more.

    Heck, even Heath stuck to sour muttering in the main.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    ..... I cant see how it will fight in 2024 but it will fight on a very different platform from last time.

    You see this is the root of the problem. An organisation cannot wildly swing about its strategy from year to year and expect to be taken seriously by the target audience. You lose all credibility, because people eventually realise that you don’t have the faintest clue what you’re on about and are just making it up as you’re going along. They know that in a couple of years time you’ll just be saying something different anyway, so even if you propose something the audience like, they have almost no faith you’ll carry it out if you meet resistance (which politicians always do).

    Further, the road is running out. Last year 2024 still seemed an awful long way away. Now it doesn’t. You say you “cant see how it will fight in 2024”. That encapsulates the entire problem. It’s far too late to be working on the fundamentals.
    Well, that's a fair summary of their problem but actually as you never tire of reminding us, they've done very well electorally despite this.

    Oh, sorry, you didn't mean the SNP?
  • Reluctant as I am to disagree with one of the world's greatest pineapple connoisseurs, I have to say that TSE may have this slightly wrong.

    Take a look, for example, at clunky old Electoral Calculus. OK we all know its limitations but it is suggesting 83 Tory seats, ffs. And there is no reason to think that if it is wrong it is wrong on the downside. It could be worse. Reason? Well, tactical voting for a start.

    I wouldn't be betting on NOM. I don't think I'd be majoring on a LabMaj.

    I think I might be chancing my arm on a meltdown. That, I suspect, is where the value lies.
  • Heathener said:

    "I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game." @TSE

    Good morning all.

    1. Starmer doesn't need to up his game

    2. It's good that he is no Blair. Boris and Cameron have made that kind of politician toxic.

    3. Starmer has expunged Corbyn's anti-semitic legacy

    4. Labour don't need Scotland but they are recovering well there.

    5. Believe the polls

    6. I am not merely confident, I am certain, that Labour will win a thumping great majority. We have witnessed a sea change.

    7. But you are right. This won't be 1997 Redux. It will be far, far, worse for the tories. In 1997 the economy was in great shape. Now it has tanked. Everyone I know is STILL talking about that Liz Truss budget and Labour will continue to remind us of it. The tories have done 1000x worse in the last 4 years than they did back then on every level, including corruption and sleaze. Which is really saying something.

    They are in for an absolute pounding. 100-150 seats but my latest reckoning is that they may go sub 100.

    Did you hear that dreadful Rishi Sunak speech in Munich? OMFG. He sounds like a precocious 14 year old reading his script (the teacher gave it a C+) in front of the class, very poorly. Really eye-wateringly poorly. This man is going to get savaged during the election campaign.

    The 100-150 band ought to be possible with a half-decent leader. But the Tories don’t have a half-decent leader.
    This is the bit that "Starmer isn't Blair" types miss. For all his weaknesses and his tendency to say "wunt", Major was (and is) a considerably effective at the basics of politics than Sunak. Bluntly, he needed to be to get where he did.

    And given that Sunak's ratings are still falling from their honeymoon, I wouldn't be shocked if the gap between the two leaders ends up in a similar place to 1997.
  • Chris said:

    The spectacle of the last two Tory prime ministers, having failed abysmally in their own premierships, trying to undermine their successor in the most public way possible, is an absolute joy to behold.

    Is it too much to hope that Theresa May will join in? Or David Cameron?

    Labour, the SNP and the Liberal Democrats are simply Rishi Sunak’s opponents. His enemies are all Tories.
  • Meanwhile, what has happened to the Australian batting line up? It's looking about as convincing as the UK Government.

    It's annoying. Just as we get our best team in decades together, they have a shower of shite to bring over for the Ashes.

    It's going to be no fun marmalising them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    edited February 2023

    Meanwhile, what has happened to the Australian batting line up? It's looking about as convincing as the UK Government.

    It's annoying. Just as we get our best team in decades together, they have a shower of shite to bring over for the Ashes.

    It's going to be no fun marmalising them.

    Their bowling can't be up to much either if even Pujara is hitting sixes.

    Edit - ah, it's a scoreboard error and it was Iyer who hit the six. That makes a lot more sense.

    Edit edit - six and out! Do Australia have a sniff? If so @Peter_the_Punter has some grovelling to do.
  • ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, what has happened to the Australian batting line up? It's looking about as convincing as the UK Government.

    It's annoying. Just as we get our best team in decades together, they have a shower of shite to bring over for the Ashes.

    It's going to be no fun marmalising them.

    Their bowling can't be up to much either if even Pujara is hitting sixes.

    Edit - ah, it's a scoreboard error and it was Iyer who hit the six. That makes a lot more sense.
    Either way they're pathetic.

    Perhaps Ms Braverman should refuse them entry.
  • Reluctant as I am to disagree with one of the world's greatest pineapple connoisseurs, I have to say that TSE may have this slightly wrong.

    Take a look, for example, at clunky old Electoral Calculus. OK we all know its limitations but it is suggesting 83 Tory seats, ffs. And there is no reason to think that if it is wrong it is wrong on the downside. It could be worse. Reason? Well, tactical voting for a start.

    I wouldn't be betting on NOM. I don't think I'd be majoring on a LabMaj.

    I think I might be chancing my arm on a meltdown. That, I suspect, is where the value lies.

    Tactical efficiency was the main difference between '83 and '92, or between '17 and '19. In both pairs, the Conservative share barely moved; it was where the votes piled up that mattered.

    That (plus right wing copium) might be why there's a difference of opinion on how bad it will be for the blue team. I'd be confident that people plugged into the left have got a better sense of how how that is playing than people connected to the right.

    But the simple lack of anti-Labour tactical voting next time will shift a fair few seats.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited February 2023
    The Tory platform at the next general election will essentially be: “It could be even worse than it is if you let Labour in” plus “women don’t have penises but Keir Starmer thinks they do”. That will be it. There’s an outside chance it will work if the government’s voter suppression efforts are effective. But I wouldn’t put too much money on it.
  • Heathener said:

    "I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game." @TSE

    Good morning all.

    1. Starmer doesn't need to up his game

    2. It's good that he is no Blair. Boris and Cameron have made that kind of politician toxic.

    3. Starmer has expunged Corbyn's anti-semitic legacy

    4. Labour don't need Scotland but they are recovering well there.

    5. Believe the polls

    6. I am not merely confident, I am certain, that Labour will win a thumping great majority. We have witnessed a sea change.

    7. But you are right. This won't be 1997 Redux. It will be far, far, worse for the tories. In 1997 the economy was in great shape. Now it has tanked. Everyone I know is STILL talking about that Liz Truss budget and Labour will continue to remind us of it. The tories have done 1000x worse in the last 4 years than they did back then on every level, including corruption and sleaze. Which is really saying something.

    They are in for an absolute pounding. 100-150 seats but my latest reckoning is that they may go sub 100.

    Did you hear that dreadful Rishi Sunak speech in Munich? OMFG. He sounds like a precocious 14 year old reading his script (the teacher gave it a C+) in front of the class, very poorly. Really eye-wateringly poorly. This man is going to get savaged during the election campaign.

    The 100-150 band ought to be possible with a half-decent leader. But the Tories don’t have a half-decent leader.
    This is the bit that "Starmer isn't Blair" types miss. For all his weaknesses and his tendency to say "wunt", Major was (and is) a considerably effective at the basics of politics than Sunak. Bluntly, he needed to be to get where he did.

    And given that Sunak's ratings are still falling from their honeymoon, I wouldn't be shocked if the gap between the two leaders ends up in a similar place to 1997.
    John Major was a political colossus compared to the pygmy shrew Sunak.

    Yet John Major’s government was still soundly thrashed in 1997. Barring a nuclear attack on Lviv or Taipei, a Storegga Slide II, or a global Marburg Virus pandemic, it is hard to conceive of an external event large enough to save the Tories.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Heathener said:

    "I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game." @TSE

    Good morning all.

    1. Starmer doesn't need to up his game

    2. It's good that he is no Blair. Boris and Cameron have made that kind of politician toxic.

    3. Starmer has expunged Corbyn's anti-semitic legacy

    4. Labour don't need Scotland but they are recovering well there.

    5. Believe the polls

    6. I am not merely confident, I am certain, that Labour will win a thumping great majority. We have witnessed a sea change.

    7. But you are right. This won't be 1997 Redux. It will be far, far, worse for the tories. In 1997 the economy was in great shape. Now it has tanked. Everyone I know is STILL talking about that Liz Truss budget and Labour will continue to remind us of it. The tories have done 1000x worse in the last 4 years than they did back then on every level, including corruption and sleaze. Which is really saying something.

    They are in for an absolute pounding. 100-150 seats but my latest reckoning is that they may go sub 100.

    Did you hear that dreadful Rishi Sunak speech in Munich? OMFG. He sounds like a precocious 14 year old reading his script (the teacher gave it a C+) in front of the class, very poorly. Really eye-wateringly poorly. This man is going to get savaged during the election campaign.

    The 100-150 band ought to be possible with a half-decent leader. But the Tories don’t have a half-decent leader.
    This is the bit that "Starmer isn't Blair" types miss. For all his weaknesses and his tendency to say "wunt", Major was (and is) a considerably effective at the basics of politics than Sunak. Bluntly, he needed to be to get where he did.

    And given that Sunak's ratings are still falling from their honeymoon, I wouldn't be shocked if the gap between the two leaders ends up in a similar place to 1997.
    If Starmer has a problem, and I don't think it's a major one, it's that he needs to demonstrate his real personality; if such a thing exits. The small target, managerial, at-least-we're-not-the-tories policy lite strategy is effective but it doesn't really give you a sense of what SKS is like. I've never met Sunak but I know exactly what he'd be like if I encountered him in person. A pathetic boring little dweeb who's never heard of Rodrigo Moreno but would try to tell me about Microsoft Azure or some fucking thing. I have no idea what to expect from a personal encounter with SKS. Maybe he's a right laugh?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Dura_Ace said:

    Heathener said:

    "I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game." @TSE

    Good morning all.

    1. Starmer doesn't need to up his game

    2. It's good that he is no Blair. Boris and Cameron have made that kind of politician toxic.

    3. Starmer has expunged Corbyn's anti-semitic legacy

    4. Labour don't need Scotland but they are recovering well there.

    5. Believe the polls

    6. I am not merely confident, I am certain, that Labour will win a thumping great majority. We have witnessed a sea change.

    7. But you are right. This won't be 1997 Redux. It will be far, far, worse for the tories. In 1997 the economy was in great shape. Now it has tanked. Everyone I know is STILL talking about that Liz Truss budget and Labour will continue to remind us of it. The tories have done 1000x worse in the last 4 years than they did back then on every level, including corruption and sleaze. Which is really saying something.

    They are in for an absolute pounding. 100-150 seats but my latest reckoning is that they may go sub 100.

    Did you hear that dreadful Rishi Sunak speech in Munich? OMFG. He sounds like a precocious 14 year old reading his script (the teacher gave it a C+) in front of the class, very poorly. Really eye-wateringly poorly. This man is going to get savaged during the election campaign.

    The 100-150 band ought to be possible with a half-decent leader. But the Tories don’t have a half-decent leader.
    This is the bit that "Starmer isn't Blair" types miss. For all his weaknesses and his tendency to say "wunt", Major was (and is) a considerably effective at the basics of politics than Sunak. Bluntly, he needed to be to get where he did.

    And given that Sunak's ratings are still falling from their honeymoon, I wouldn't be shocked if the gap between the two leaders ends up in a similar place to 1997.
    If Starmer has a problem, and I don't think it's a major one, it's that he needs to demonstrate his real personality; if such a thing exits. The small target, managerial, at-least-we're-not-the-tories policy lite strategy is effective but it doesn't really give you a sense of what SKS is like. I've never met Sunak but I know exactly what he'd be like if I encountered him in person. A pathetic boring little dweeb who's never heard of Rodrigo Moreno but would try to tell me about Microsoft Azure or some fucking thing. I have no idea what to expect from a personal encounter with SKS. Maybe he's a right laugh?
    A left laugh, shurely?

    Unless you're BJO, of course :smile:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    Reluctant as I am to disagree with one of the world's greatest pineapple connoisseurs, I have to say that TSE may have this slightly wrong.

    Take a look, for example, at clunky old Electoral Calculus. OK we all know its limitations but it is suggesting 83 Tory seats, ffs. And there is no reason to think that if it is wrong it is wrong on the downside. It could be worse. Reason? Well, tactical voting for a start.

    I wouldn't be betting on NOM. I don't think I'd be majoring on a LabMaj.

    I think I might be chancing my arm on a meltdown. That, I suspect, is where the value lies.

    I am no Starmer fan, but I agree. The value is in believing Electoral Calculus on a Labour Landslide. It depends how we define landslide, but Tories under 200 would be my definition, and it could easily be half that.

    Not much yet in the betting markets yet on this. There is very poor liquidity on Smarkets for this.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    edited February 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    Heathener said:

    "I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game." @TSE

    Good morning all.

    1. Starmer doesn't need to up his game

    2. It's good that he is no Blair. Boris and Cameron have made that kind of politician toxic.

    3. Starmer has expunged Corbyn's anti-semitic legacy

    4. Labour don't need Scotland but they are recovering well there.

    5. Believe the polls

    6. I am not merely confident, I am certain, that Labour will win a thumping great majority. We have witnessed a sea change.

    7. But you are right. This won't be 1997 Redux. It will be far, far, worse for the tories. In 1997 the economy was in great shape. Now it has tanked. Everyone I know is STILL talking about that Liz Truss budget and Labour will continue to remind us of it. The tories have done 1000x worse in the last 4 years than they did back then on every level, including corruption and sleaze. Which is really saying something.

    They are in for an absolute pounding. 100-150 seats but my latest reckoning is that they may go sub 100.

    Did you hear that dreadful Rishi Sunak speech in Munich? OMFG. He sounds like a precocious 14 year old reading his script (the teacher gave it a C+) in front of the class, very poorly. Really eye-wateringly poorly. This man is going to get savaged during the election campaign.

    The 100-150 band ought to be possible with a half-decent leader. But the Tories don’t have a half-decent leader.
    This is the bit that "Starmer isn't Blair" types miss. For all his weaknesses and his tendency to say "wunt", Major was (and is) a considerably effective at the basics of politics than Sunak. Bluntly, he needed to be to get where he did.

    And given that Sunak's ratings are still falling from their honeymoon, I wouldn't be shocked if the gap between the two leaders ends up in a similar place to 1997.
    If Starmer has a problem, and I don't think it's a major one, it's that he needs to demonstrate his real personality; if such a thing exits. The small target, managerial, at-least-we're-not-the-tories policy lite strategy is effective but it doesn't really give you a sense of what SKS is like. I've never met Sunak but I know exactly what he'd be like if I encountered him in person. A pathetic boring little dweeb who's never heard of Rodrigo Moreno but would try to tell me about Microsoft Azure or some fucking thing. I have no idea what to expect from a personal encounter with SKS. Maybe he's a right laugh?
    Funnily enough, I have met him - in a cafe in Highgate.

    Strangely, he appears to be a normal person.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited February 2023
    ’Why do the polls seemed unmoved by the departure of Nicola Sturgeon, and who might replace her?’

    Although early, it does not appear that SNP voters are apt to desert the party, or even become more undecided post the announced departure of Nicola Sturgeon – who is surely one of Britain’s most successful politicians ever in terms of winning elections. When we put to voters in the poll to what extent (did Sturgeon’s departure) make you more or less likely to vote for the SNP? looking at those who said more likely minus those saying less likely actually resulted in a +5% net more likely to vote SNP figure when viewing attitudes of those who voted for the party in the 2021 Holyrood constituency vote.

    It is therefore entirely possible therefore that the SNP’s loyal voter base are really not voting for the party based on it’s leader to any meaningful extent, and/or potentially see the Sturgeon years as having run their course – a sentiment seemingly shared by the FM herself. Three-quarters of 2014 Yes voters would vote SNP at a Westminster election, and so it remains clear that independence attitudes loom large as a strong driver for SNP party choice.


    https://www.survation.com/scotlands-political-landscape-after-nicola-sturgeon/
  • The Tory platform at the next general election will essentially be: “It could be even worse than it is if you let Labour in” plus “women don’t have penises but Keir Starmer thinks they do”.

    Remind me, what happened to the last politician who dismissed such concerns as “not valid”…..

    Labour need to do some serious thinking beyond simply mouthing platitudes.

    Is Isla Bryson a woman? “The recent case?” Looking slightly thrown, she starts talking about guidelines, processes, safeguards, circumstances. “So from what I know about the case, I would not have been putting that person in a women-only prison.”
    https://thetimes.co.uk/article/a243ac9c-a7d0-11ed-999f-64d8c8a46b78?shareToken=6774e68b5dfb35e0f79de017c7d41dcc… 1/

    Bryson, 31, claims to have known she was a woman since she was four. Does that mean she was a woman when she raped her victims? Rayner looks puzzled.

    “Well, I don’t know. Because I don’t know what’s inside that person’s head.” 8/

    I agree, it is impossible for anyone to know. But according to the principle of self-ID, what’s inside someone’s head should determine their legal right to access female-only spaces. 9/

    …“Yeah, sure, I mean …” She looks cross & flustered. “It doesn’t matter whether it was a penis or some implementation.” I think Bryson’s victims would say her penis played an important part in her crimes. Does the phrase “her penis” even make any sense? 12/


    https://twitter.com/Scot_Feminists/status/1627059752118407168?s=20

  • ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, what has happened to the Australian batting line up? It's looking about as convincing as the UK Government.

    It's annoying. Just as we get our best team in decades together, they have a shower of shite to bring over for the Ashes.

    It's going to be no fun marmalising them.

    Their bowling can't be up to much either if even Pujara is hitting sixes.

    Edit - ah, it's a scoreboard error and it was Iyer who hit the six. That makes a lot more sense.

    Edit edit - six and out! Do Australia have a sniff? If so @Peter_the_Punter has some grovelling to do.
    Grovel?! Moi?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    The Tory platform at the next general election will essentially be: “It could be even worse than it is if you let Labour in” plus “women don’t have penises but Keir Starmer thinks they do”.

    Remind me, what happened to the last politician who dismissed such concerns as “not valid”…..

    Labour need to do some serious thinking beyond simply mouthing platitudes.

    Is Isla Bryson a woman? “The recent case?” Looking slightly thrown, she starts talking about guidelines, processes, safeguards, circumstances. “So from what I know about the case, I would not have been putting that person in a women-only prison.”
    https://thetimes.co.uk/article/a243ac9c-a7d0-11ed-999f-64d8c8a46b78?shareToken=6774e68b5dfb35e0f79de017c7d41dcc… 1/

    Bryson, 31, claims to have known she was a woman since she was four. Does that mean she was a woman when she raped her victims? Rayner looks puzzled.

    “Well, I don’t know. Because I don’t know what’s inside that person’s head.” 8/

    I agree, it is impossible for anyone to know. But according to the principle of self-ID, what’s inside someone’s head should determine their legal right to access female-only spaces. 9/

    …“Yeah, sure, I mean …” She looks cross & flustered. “It doesn’t matter whether it was a penis or some implementation.” I think Bryson’s victims would say her penis played an important part in her crimes. Does the phrase “her penis” even make any sense? 12/


    https://twitter.com/Scot_Feminists/status/1627059752118407168?s=20

    Totally fished in. LOL.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Dura_Ace said:

    I have no idea what to expect from a personal encounter with SKS. Maybe he's a right laugh?

    He likes a beer and a curry
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Heathener said:

    "I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game." @TSE

    Good morning all.

    1. Starmer doesn't need to up his game

    2. It's good that he is no Blair. Boris and Cameron have made that kind of politician toxic.

    3. Starmer has expunged Corbyn's anti-semitic legacy

    4. Labour don't need Scotland but they are recovering well there.

    5. Believe the polls

    6. I am not merely confident, I am certain, that Labour will win a thumping great majority. We have witnessed a sea change.

    7. But you are right. This won't be 1997 Redux. It will be far, far, worse for the tories. In 1997 the economy was in great shape. Now it has tanked. Everyone I know is STILL talking about that Liz Truss budget and Labour will continue to remind us of it. The tories have done 1000x worse in the last 4 years than they did back then on every level, including corruption and sleaze. Which is really saying something.

    They are in for an absolute pounding. 100-150 seats but my latest reckoning is that they may go sub 100.

    Did you hear that dreadful Rishi Sunak speech in Munich? OMFG. He sounds like a precocious 14 year old reading his script (the teacher gave it a C+) in front of the class, very poorly. Really eye-wateringly poorly. This man is going to get savaged during the election campaign.

    The 100-150 band ought to be possible with a half-decent leader. But the Tories don’t have a half-decent leader.
    This is the bit that "Starmer isn't Blair" types miss. For all his weaknesses and his tendency to say "wunt", Major was (and is) a considerably effective at the basics of politics than Sunak. Bluntly, he needed to be to get where he did.

    And given that Sunak's ratings are still falling from their honeymoon, I wouldn't be shocked if the gap between the two leaders ends up in a similar place to 1997.
    If Starmer has a problem, and I don't think it's a major one, it's that he needs to demonstrate his real personality; if such a thing exits. The small target, managerial, at-least-we're-not-the-tories policy lite strategy is effective but it doesn't really give you a sense of what SKS is like. I've never met Sunak but I know exactly what he'd be like if I encountered him in person. A pathetic boring little dweeb who's never heard of Rodrigo Moreno but would try to tell me about Microsoft Azure or some fucking thing. I have no idea what to expect from a personal encounter with SKS. Maybe he's a right laugh?
    Is that important? I doubt it. Despite PB and the media going on endlessly about personalities, at the end of the day politics is about policy. And even then, primarily economic policy. Neither Labour nor the Tories have such a thing, and even if they did, they would quite happily change it at the drop of a hat if they thought it would gain them votes.

    Labour are going to be every bit as disastrous as the Conservatives have been.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited February 2023
    As for who might replace Nicola Sturgeon, the public at large (graphic below) are rather underwhelmed in terms of who might do a good/bad job succeeding the current First Minister. Looking however, to the 48% of Scots who voted for the SNP at the 2021 Holyrood election, current deputy John Swinney (who has ruled himself out) scores +17 on this good job-bad job statistic. 2021 SNP voters score Kate Forbes (+38%) and Angus Robertson (+31%) highly. Humza Yousaf would no doubt be disappointed with his own score among this group of just +3%


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    It used to be the SNP’s mantra that if they showed they could govern well under devolution, voters would flock to the independence banner. But under Sturgeon there has been a litany of domestic policy failure.

    One SNP MP remarked of Sturgeon’s government: “They couldn’t deliver a pizza. If they were asked to deliver a pizza they would set up a working group, would have a public consultation, then an over-engineered plan. The pizza would be square instead of round, would cost twice as much as originally thought and take three time as long to make.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-resignation-future-snp-scottish-independence-questions-26sn0rrk9
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Scott_xP said:

    It used to be the SNP’s mantra that if they showed they could govern well under devolution, voters would flock to the independence banner. But under Sturgeon there has been a litany of domestic policy failure.

    One SNP MP remarked of Sturgeon’s government: “They couldn’t deliver a pizza. If they were asked to deliver a pizza they would set up a working group, would have a public consultation, then an over-engineered plan. The pizza would be square instead of round, would cost twice as much as originally thought and take three time as long to make.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-resignation-future-snp-scottish-independence-questions-26sn0rrk9

    But all of those are dwarfed by the most important question:

    Would they put pineapple on it?
  • A warning to psephologists, and punters.

    3% of the Scottish electorate believe Stuart Lewis would do a good job as First Minister. But twice as many believe he would do a bad job as FM.
    Stuart Lewis is a fictional name in the survey.😂
    #StuartLewis4FM



    https://twitter.com/jamesrwithers/status/1626652144337096707?s=46&t=eNsBLMSATSn17GYQMqF1Tw
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    And Pujara cracks a four to seal victory in his 100th Test by batting as Pujara does.

    Criminally underrated player.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Scott_xP said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I have no idea what to expect from a personal encounter with SKS. Maybe he's a right laugh?

    He likes a beer and a curry
    His blandness puts people into a Korma, but his political instincts on when to strike are as swift as a Cobra.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I have no idea what to expect from a personal encounter with SKS. Maybe he's a right laugh?

    He likes a beer and a curry
    Keir comes across kinda Kaliber and Korma
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    edited February 2023
    Foxy said:

    Reluctant as I am to disagree with one of the world's greatest pineapple connoisseurs, I have to say that TSE may have this slightly wrong.

    Take a look, for example, at clunky old Electoral Calculus. OK we all know its limitations but it is suggesting 83 Tory seats, ffs. And there is no reason to think that if it is wrong it is wrong on the downside. It could be worse. Reason? Well, tactical voting for a start.

    I wouldn't be betting on NOM. I don't think I'd be majoring on a LabMaj.

    I think I might be chancing my arm on a meltdown. That, I suspect, is where the value lies.

    I am no Starmer fan, but I agree. The value is in believing Electoral Calculus on a Labour Landslide. It depends how we define landslide, but Tories under 200 would be my definition, and it could easily be half that.

    Not much yet in the betting markets yet on this. There is very poor liquidity on Smarkets for this.
    I've always thought of 'landslide' as being a majority in excess of 100 but it's just a figure of speech really.

    For value bets, I'd wait for the seats bands to be offered and go for the extreme ends. That's where the value will be.

    Edit: I see India have won already. This Australian side is poor.
  • What a cruel bastard King Charles III is, how can he treat his brother like this and make him homeless? No wonder the King's son hates him.


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Sturgeon’s exit leaves the stage bare. The last of the big beasts has departed and Scottish politics, for so long a rich seam of significant political talent, suddenly seems an emptier place. At such a moment it is tempting to conclude that just as a once-bountiful seam of Scottish footballing talent was eventually exhausted, so Scotland no longer produces politicians of the stature of, say, John Smith, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, Charles Kennedy and Malcolm Rifkind. There was a hint of Gloria Swanson as Norma Desmond in Sturgeon’s resignation speech: “I am big,” she all but said, “It’s Scottish politics that got small.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-after-nicola-sturgeon-divided-uncertain-and-bereft-of-political-heavyweights-0f5pl9dck
  • I was planning on writing an AV thread this afternoon but time has got away from me, so apologies in advance for the phallus based thread this afternoon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Scott_xP said:

    Sturgeon’s exit leaves the stage bare. The last of the big beasts has departed and Scottish politics, for so long a rich seam of significant political talent, suddenly seems an emptier place. At such a moment it is tempting to conclude that just as a once-bountiful seam of Scottish footballing talent was eventually exhausted, so Scotland no longer produces politicians of the stature of, say, John Smith, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, Charles Kennedy and Malcolm Rifkind. There was a hint of Gloria Swanson as Norma Desmond in Sturgeon’s resignation speech: “I am big,” she all but said, “It’s Scottish politics that got small.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-after-nicola-sturgeon-divided-uncertain-and-bereft-of-political-heavyweights-0f5pl9dck

    How could that list ignore David Steel?
  • Not a single tomato to be had in Cardiff (Sainsbury’s, Lidl, Morrisons)
    #EmptyShelves
    Apparently “supply issues”
    #BrexitBritain
    Also British greenhouses cannot afford to put on the heating
    #ToryCostOfLivingCrisis


    https://twitter.com/jonnyfawr/status/1626632317056712710?s=46&t=eNsBLMSATSn17GYQMqF1Tw
  • Foxy said:

    Reluctant as I am to disagree with one of the world's greatest pineapple connoisseurs, I have to say that TSE may have this slightly wrong.

    Take a look, for example, at clunky old Electoral Calculus. OK we all know its limitations but it is suggesting 83 Tory seats, ffs. And there is no reason to think that if it is wrong it is wrong on the downside. It could be worse. Reason? Well, tactical voting for a start.

    I wouldn't be betting on NOM. I don't think I'd be majoring on a LabMaj.

    I think I might be chancing my arm on a meltdown. That, I suspect, is where the value lies.

    I am no Starmer fan, but I agree. The value is in believing Electoral Calculus on a Labour Landslide. It depends how we define landslide, but Tories under 200 would be my definition, and it could easily be half that.

    Not much yet in the betting markets yet on this. There is very poor liquidity on Smarkets for this.
    I've always thought of 'landslide' as being a majority in excess of 100 but it's just a figure of speech really.

    For value bets, I'd wait for the seats bands to be offered and go for the extreme ends. That's where the value will be.

    Edit: I see India have won already. This Australian side is poor.
    England to win the Ashes 4 nil, 5 nil if the weather holds out.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    What a cruel bastard King Charles III is, how can he treat his brother like this and make him homeless? No wonder the King's son hates him.


    Oh weep for poor Andrew!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    edited February 2023

    Foxy said:

    Reluctant as I am to disagree with one of the world's greatest pineapple connoisseurs, I have to say that TSE may have this slightly wrong.

    Take a look, for example, at clunky old Electoral Calculus. OK we all know its limitations but it is suggesting 83 Tory seats, ffs. And there is no reason to think that if it is wrong it is wrong on the downside. It could be worse. Reason? Well, tactical voting for a start.

    I wouldn't be betting on NOM. I don't think I'd be majoring on a LabMaj.

    I think I might be chancing my arm on a meltdown. That, I suspect, is where the value lies.

    I am no Starmer fan, but I agree. The value is in believing Electoral Calculus on a Labour Landslide. It depends how we define landslide, but Tories under 200 would be my definition, and it could easily be half that.

    Not much yet in the betting markets yet on this. There is very poor liquidity on Smarkets for this.
    I've always thought of 'landslide' as being a majority in excess of 100 but it's just a figure of speech really.

    For value bets, I'd wait for the seats bands to be offered and go for the extreme ends. That's where the value will be.

    Edit: I see India have won already. This Australian side is poor.
    I think that about right in terms of majority, so a winning party on 375 seats or so. Allowing 75 or so for other parties means losing party on less than 200.

    Looks pretty likely to me. One side effect is that half the Lab MPs will be in their first term. It will be a very green government, with few survivors from the last Labour government. Not that experience of government is everything, after all Truss, Kwarteng, Sunak etc are running a shitshow and have been in government on and off for years.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Not a single tomato to be had in Cardiff (Sainsbury’s, Lidl, Morrisons)
    #EmptyShelves
    Apparently “supply issues”
    #BrexitBritain
    Also British greenhouses cannot afford to put on the heating
    #ToryCostOfLivingCrisis


    https://twitter.com/jonnyfawr/status/1626632317056712710?s=46&t=eNsBLMSATSn17GYQMqF1Tw

    Maybe he should have gone in the morning?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    edited February 2023

    I was planning on writing an AV thread this afternoon but time has got away from me, so apologies in advance for the phallus based thread this afternoon.

    So you cocked up?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    edited February 2023
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Reluctant as I am to disagree with one of the world's greatest pineapple connoisseurs, I have to say that TSE may have this slightly wrong.

    Take a look, for example, at clunky old Electoral Calculus. OK we all know its limitations but it is suggesting 83 Tory seats, ffs. And there is no reason to think that if it is wrong it is wrong on the downside. It could be worse. Reason? Well, tactical voting for a start.

    I wouldn't be betting on NOM. I don't think I'd be majoring on a LabMaj.

    I think I might be chancing my arm on a meltdown. That, I suspect, is where the value lies.

    I am no Starmer fan, but I agree. The value is in believing Electoral Calculus on a Labour Landslide. It depends how we define landslide, but Tories under 200 would be my definition, and it could easily be half that.

    Not much yet in the betting markets yet on this. There is very poor liquidity on Smarkets for this.
    I've always thought of 'landslide' as being a majority in excess of 100 but it's just a figure of speech really.

    For value bets, I'd wait for the seats bands to be offered and go for the extreme ends. That's where the value will be.

    Edit: I see India have won already. This Australian side is poor.
    I think that about right in terms of majority, so a winning party on 375 seats or so. Allowing 75 or so for other parties means losing party on less than 200.

    Looks pretty likely to me. One side effect is that half the Lab MPs will be in their first term. It will be a very green government, with few survivors from the last Labour government. Not that experience of government is everything, after all Truss, Kwarteng, Sunak etc are running a shitshow and have been in government on and off for years.
    Cooper and Ed Miliband are in the Shadow cabinet and served under Brown. David Lammy I think was a junior minister under Brown.

    Otherwise am I right in thinking all of the Shadow Cabinet are novices to government and many of them weren't even in Parliament in 2010?

    Not that that's radically different from 2010, where the only surviving cabinet ministers were Hague and Clarke, 1997, where it was Cunningham (and Beckett as a junior minister) or 1964 where Wilson and the unique Patrick Gordon Walker were the only former Cabinet ministers at the top table.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sturgeon’s exit leaves the stage bare. The last of the big beasts has departed and Scottish politics, for so long a rich seam of significant political talent, suddenly seems an emptier place. At such a moment it is tempting to conclude that just as a once-bountiful seam of Scottish footballing talent was eventually exhausted, so Scotland no longer produces politicians of the stature of, say, John Smith, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, Charles Kennedy and Malcolm Rifkind. There was a hint of Gloria Swanson as Norma Desmond in Sturgeon’s resignation speech: “I am big,” she all but said, “It’s Scottish politics that got small.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-after-nicola-sturgeon-divided-uncertain-and-bereft-of-political-heavyweights-0f5pl9dck

    How could that list ignore David Steel?
    Or Lord Mike Watson?

  • Sean_F said:

    Not a single tomato to be had in Cardiff (Sainsbury’s, Lidl, Morrisons)
    #EmptyShelves
    Apparently “supply issues”
    #BrexitBritain
    Also British greenhouses cannot afford to put on the heating
    #ToryCostOfLivingCrisis


    https://twitter.com/jonnyfawr/status/1626632317056712710?s=46&t=eNsBLMSATSn17GYQMqF1Tw

    Maybe he should have gone in the morning?
    Maybe he should. But in that case, they'd have run out of tomatoes just a tiny bit earlier than they did.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,396
    If he can stage a recovery in Scotland reflective of or a significant proportion of the recovery in England he gets a majority. If he doesn't its possible, but most seats becomes most likely.

    Simple.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    edited February 2023

    What a cruel bastard King Charles III is, how can he treat his brother like this and make him homeless? No wonder the King's son hates him.


    I don't know about William, but Harry doesn't seem to hate Charles.

    I have now finished "Spare" and it is an interesting listen/read. There is a degree of estrangement obviously, but from Harry's description of Will and Charles, he sees them as much trapped by the institution as he was, with little autonomy. On a personal level he is fond of them.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,493
    edited February 2023

    Not a single tomato to be had in Cardiff (Sainsbury’s, Lidl, Morrisons)
    #EmptyShelves
    Apparently “supply issues”
    #BrexitBritain
    Also British greenhouses cannot afford to put on the heating
    #ToryCostOfLivingCrisis


    https://twitter.com/jonnyfawr/status/1626632317056712710?s=46&t=eNsBLMSATSn17GYQMqF1Tw

    There’s loads of these type of pics popping up on my Twitter feed from all across the UK, often helpfully contrasted with shelves groaning under the weight of fresh produce in the EU.

    Supposedly, one woman complained about the lack of fresh produce and was told by an employee that it was due to bad weather affecting crops. The employee then helpfully added that that’s what management had told them to say, but really it’s because of Brexit.

    If it is due to crop shortages, they don’t seem to have affected yields in the EU.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    The SNP does not deserve to succeed at present because it has not done the work necessary to provide a plausible, let alone an attractive, blueprint for how independence might actually function. Currency? No idea. The Anglo-Scottish frontier? Not a clue. Joining the EU? Don’t worry about that. Better, instead, to simply assume all will be well, hold hands, and jump together.

    Sturgeon’s tactic was route one all the time. If plan A didn’t work, switch to plan A but harder this time. For all her other qualities, the outgoing first minister is neither a deep thinker nor someone emotionally equipped to understand her opponents. Convinced of her own righteousness and armour-plated by her faith in destiny, she never paused to consider how she might look to those not already aboard the nationalist hype-train. The limitations of this approach should surely be apparent by now.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sturgeon-left-at-a-loss-by-union-s-resilience-5p9zl9vwk
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,396

    Meanwhile, what has happened to the Australian batting line up? It's looking about as convincing as the UK Government.

    It's annoying. Just as we get our best team in decades together, they have a shower of shite to bring over for the Ashes.

    It's going to be no fun marmalising them.

    The last sentence will never be true, it would always be fun.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,248
    The latest candidate for Scottish First Minister openly despises 94% of Scots

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scottish History Quiz🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

    Who said:
    "The trouble with Scotland is that it's full of Scots?"

    A) Edward Longshanks in Braveheart?
    B) Humza Yousaf in Holyrood?

    https://twitter.com/okbiology/status/1322737092246593536?s=46&t=JRrTzS44JSqhTJWuAKv38g


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Remember too in 2009 Cameron was heading for a landslide majority but in 2010 only got a hung parliament. There is room for Sunak to come back as Brown did, especially with Starmer much less popular than Blair was and if he squeezes DKs and RefUK and some Labour voters go Green after Corbyn's deselection
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    edited February 2023
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Reluctant as I am to disagree with one of the world's greatest pineapple connoisseurs, I have to say that TSE may have this slightly wrong.

    Take a look, for example, at clunky old Electoral Calculus. OK we all know its limitations but it is suggesting 83 Tory seats, ffs. And there is no reason to think that if it is wrong it is wrong on the downside. It could be worse. Reason? Well, tactical voting for a start.

    I wouldn't be betting on NOM. I don't think I'd be majoring on a LabMaj.

    I think I might be chancing my arm on a meltdown. That, I suspect, is where the value lies.

    I am no Starmer fan, but I agree. The value is in believing Electoral Calculus on a Labour Landslide. It depends how we define landslide, but Tories under 200 would be my definition, and it could easily be half that.

    Not much yet in the betting markets yet on this. There is very poor liquidity on Smarkets for this.
    I've always thought of 'landslide' as being a majority in excess of 100 but it's just a figure of speech really.

    For value bets, I'd wait for the seats bands to be offered and go for the extreme ends. That's where the value will be.

    Edit: I see India have won already. This Australian side is poor.
    I think that about right in terms of majority, so a winning party on 375 seats or so. Allowing 75 or so for other parties means losing party on less than 200.

    Looks pretty likely to me. One side effect is that half the Lab MPs will be in their first term. It will be a very green government, with few survivors from the last Labour government. Not that experience of government is everything, after all Truss, Kwarteng, Sunak etc are running a shitshow and have been in government on and off for years.
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Reluctant as I am to disagree with one of the world's greatest pineapple connoisseurs, I have to say that TSE may have this slightly wrong.

    Take a look, for example, at clunky old Electoral Calculus. OK we all know its limitations but it is suggesting 83 Tory seats, ffs. And there is no reason to think that if it is wrong it is wrong on the downside. It could be worse. Reason? Well, tactical voting for a start.

    I wouldn't be betting on NOM. I don't think I'd be majoring on a LabMaj.

    I think I might be chancing my arm on a meltdown. That, I suspect, is where the value lies.

    I am no Starmer fan, but I agree. The value is in believing Electoral Calculus on a Labour Landslide. It depends how we define landslide, but Tories under 200 would be my definition, and it could easily be half that.

    Not much yet in the betting markets yet on this. There is very poor liquidity on Smarkets for this.
    I've always thought of 'landslide' as being a majority in excess of 100 but it's just a figure of speech really.

    For value bets, I'd wait for the seats bands to be offered and go for the extreme ends. That's where the value will be.

    Edit: I see India have won already. This Australian side is poor.
    I think that about right in terms of majority, so a winning party on 375 seats or so. Allowing 75 or so for other parties means losing party on less than 200.

    Looks pretty likely to me. One side effect is that half the Lab MPs will be in their first term. It will be a very green government, with few survivors from the last Labour government. Not that experience of government is everything, after all Truss, Kwarteng, Sunak etc are running a shitshow and have been in government on and off for years.
    Maybe a few people with real life experience as opposed to be SPADS or otherwise hanging around the fringes of London politics would be a Good Thing.


    And Good Morning!
  • If Sagan is right - I suspect he is -

    Not a single tomato to be had in Cardiff (Sainsbury’s, Lidl, Morrisons)
    #EmptyShelves
    Apparently “supply issues”
    #BrexitBritain
    Also British greenhouses cannot afford to put on the heating
    #ToryCostOfLivingCrisis


    https://twitter.com/jonnyfawr/status/1626632317056712710?s=46&t=eNsBLMSATSn17GYQMqF1Tw

    There’s loads of these type of pics popping up on my Twitter feed from all across the UK, often helpfully contrasted with shelves groaning under the weight of fresh produce in the EU.

    Supposedly, one woman complained about the lack of fresh produce and was told by an employee that it was due to bad weather affecting crops. The employee then helpfully added that that’s what management had told them to say, but really it’s because of Brexit.

    If it is due to crop shortages, they don’t seem to have affected yields in the EU.
    And Twitter delivers right on cue.


  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Sean_F said:

    Not a single tomato to be had in Cardiff (Sainsbury’s, Lidl, Morrisons)
    #EmptyShelves
    Apparently “supply issues”
    #BrexitBritain
    Also British greenhouses cannot afford to put on the heating
    #ToryCostOfLivingCrisis


    https://twitter.com/jonnyfawr/status/1626632317056712710?s=46&t=eNsBLMSATSn17GYQMqF1Tw

    Maybe he should have gone in the morning?
    Maybe he should. But in that case, they'd have run out of tomatoes just a tiny bit earlier than they did.
    Stores often run out of fresh produce, by close of business. Strange, but true.
  • A warning to psephologists, and punters.

    3% of the Scottish electorate believe Stuart Lewis would do a good job as First Minister. But twice as many believe he would do a bad job as FM.
    Stuart Lewis is a fictional name in the survey.😂
    #StuartLewis4FM



    https://twitter.com/jamesrwithers/status/1626652144337096707?s=46&t=eNsBLMSATSn17GYQMqF1Tw

    On the other hand, with a name like Stuart, he must be a good egg.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,396

    As for who might replace Nicola Sturgeon, the public at large (graphic below) are rather underwhelmed in terms of who might do a good/bad job succeeding the current First Minister. Looking however, to the 48% of Scots who voted for the SNP at the 2021 Holyrood election, current deputy John Swinney (who has ruled himself out) scores +17 on this good job-bad job statistic. 2021 SNP voters score Kate Forbes (+38%) and Angus Robertson (+31%) highly. Humza Yousaf would no doubt be disappointed with his own score among this group of just +3%


    I feel like I need context to these figures. What was Sturgeons rating like before she took over?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited February 2023

    What a cruel bastard King Charles III is, how can he treat his brother like this and make him homeless? No wonder the King's son hates him.


    Fortunately for Andrew though Kings no longer put brothers who have become a nuisance in the Tower of London.

    He will just have to find a detached house in Surrey
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    A warning to psephologists, and punters.

    3% of the Scottish electorate believe Stuart Lewis would do a good job as First Minister. But twice as many believe he would do a bad job as FM.
    Stuart Lewis is a fictional name in the survey.😂
    #StuartLewis4FM



    https://twitter.com/jamesrwithers/status/1626652144337096707?s=46&t=eNsBLMSATSn17GYQMqF1Tw

    On the other hand, with a name like Stuart, he must be a good egg.
    IIRC Swinney didn’t do much when he had the job.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,248

    ’Why do the polls seemed unmoved by the departure of Nicola Sturgeon, and who might replace her?’

    Although early, it does not appear that SNP voters are apt to desert the party, or even become more undecided post the announced departure of Nicola Sturgeon – who is surely one of Britain’s most successful politicians ever in terms of winning elections. When we put to voters in the poll to what extent (did Sturgeon’s departure) make you more or less likely to vote for the SNP? looking at those who said more likely minus those saying less likely actually resulted in a +5% net more likely to vote SNP figure when viewing attitudes of those who voted for the party in the 2021 Holyrood constituency vote.

    It is therefore entirely possible therefore that the SNP’s loyal voter base are really not voting for the party based on it’s leader to any meaningful extent, and/or potentially see the Sturgeon years as having run their course – a sentiment seemingly shared by the FM herself. Three-quarters of 2014 Yes voters would vote SNP at a Westminster election, and so it remains clear that independence attitudes loom large as a strong driver for SNP party choice.


    https://www.survation.com/scotlands-political-landscape-after-nicola-sturgeon/

    Ahem. As I said just yesterday


    “February 18

    Leon


    ON topic, I wonder if - counter-intuitively - we might see the SNP stabilize in the polls, or even benefit from a slightly uptick

    The reason? Patriotic Scots will clamour to the defense of THE patriotic Scotch party as everyone else - especially the Hunnish yoons - scoffs at Sturgeon’s departure and her failure on Indy. For the same reason we might see an uptick in Yes

    it’s the same paradoxical psychology which saw a surge to the Nats after Scotland voted NO

    However, unlike that earlier paradoxical uplift, I don’t expect this one to last. Sturgeon’s departure IS a blow, and she was a unifying figure in what is a deeply divided party, I can’t see any of the aspiring candidates matching her ability in this way - Forbes is too right wing and Wee Free, Robertson is too boring and tainted, etc

    There will surely be tartan blood on the carpet. So the Nats will eventually suffer for this, and the YES vote might enter a gentle but less spectacular decline “
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,146
    Foxy said:

    I was planning on writing an AV thread this afternoon but time has got away from me, so apologies in advance for the phallus based thread this afternoon.

    So you cocked up?
    On cucumber supplies, I presume.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The SNP does not deserve to succeed at present because it has not done the work necessary to provide a plausible, let alone an attractive, blueprint for how independence might actually function. Currency? No idea. The Anglo-Scottish frontier? Not a clue. Joining the EU? Don’t worry about that. Better, instead, to simply assume all will be well, hold hands, and jump together.

    Sturgeon’s tactic was route one all the time. If plan A didn’t work, switch to plan A but harder this time. For all her other qualities, the outgoing first minister is neither a deep thinker nor someone emotionally equipped to understand her opponents. Convinced of her own righteousness and armour-plated by her faith in destiny, she never paused to consider how she might look to those not already aboard the nationalist hype-train. The limitations of this approach should surely be apparent by now.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sturgeon-left-at-a-loss-by-union-s-resilience-5p9zl9vwk

    Are we nearly there yet?



  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046

    Chris said:

    The spectacle of the last two Tory prime ministers, having failed abysmally in their own premierships, trying to undermine their successor in the most public way possible, is an absolute joy to behold.

    Is it too much to hope that Theresa May will join in? Or David Cameron?

    Yes, because they've got more class than that. Possibly not much more in Cameron's case, but sufficiently more.

    Heck, even Heath stuck to sour muttering in the main.
    Theresa May has made repeated interventions, the most recent being to advocate strongly against amending her ill-considered modern slavery bill which is being used as an unanswerable asylum claim by boat people. Cameron maintains a classy silence, but Osborne intervenes enough for both of them, constantly telling everyone what to do in the most strident of terms, and most recently seen cockily insisting that no Tory Government would ever leave the ECHR regardless of whether it was in their manifesto. He even runs a newspaper to do so.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,161

    Foxy said:

    Reluctant as I am to disagree with one of the world's greatest pineapple connoisseurs, I have to say that TSE may have this slightly wrong.

    Take a look, for example, at clunky old Electoral Calculus. OK we all know its limitations but it is suggesting 83 Tory seats, ffs. And there is no reason to think that if it is wrong it is wrong on the downside. It could be worse. Reason? Well, tactical voting for a start.

    I wouldn't be betting on NOM. I don't think I'd be majoring on a LabMaj.

    I think I might be chancing my arm on a meltdown. That, I suspect, is where the value lies.

    I am no Starmer fan, but I agree. The value is in believing Electoral Calculus on a Labour Landslide. It depends how we define landslide, but Tories under 200 would be my definition, and it could easily be half that.

    Not much yet in the betting markets yet on this. There is very poor liquidity on Smarkets for this.
    I've always thought of 'landslide' as being a majority in excess of 100 but it's just a figure of speech really.

    For value bets, I'd wait for the seats bands to be offered and go for the extreme ends. That's where the value will be.

    Edit: I see India have won already. This Australian side is poor.
    I only really get the landslide feeling on election night when there is a big swing and dozens of seats fall including ones previously thought safe. That happened in both 1997 and 2019, and it happened in Scotland in 2015. 2001 was a landslide statistically but didn’t feel particularly so because barely anything moved.

    By that measure I think even a Labour majority of 50 or 60 would feel like a landslide even if it wouldn’t be in majority terms.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited February 2023

    Heathener said:

    "I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game." @TSE

    Good morning all.

    1. Starmer doesn't need to up his game

    2. It's good that he is no Blair. Boris and Cameron have made that kind of politician toxic.

    3. Starmer has expunged Corbyn's anti-semitic legacy

    4. Labour don't need Scotland but they are recovering well there.

    5. Believe the polls

    6. I am not merely confident, I am certain, that Labour will win a thumping great majority. We have witnessed a sea change.

    7. But you are right. This won't be 1997 Redux. It will be far, far, worse for the tories. In 1997 the economy was in great shape. Now it has tanked. Everyone I know is STILL talking about that Liz Truss budget and Labour will continue to remind us of it. The tories have done 1000x worse in the last 4 years than they did back then on every level, including corruption and sleaze. Which is really saying something.

    They are in for an absolute pounding. 100-150 seats but my latest reckoning is that they may go sub 100.

    Did you hear that dreadful Rishi Sunak speech in Munich? OMFG. He sounds like a precocious 14 year old reading his script (the teacher gave it a C+) in front of the class, very poorly. Really eye-wateringly poorly. This man is going to get savaged during the election campaign.

    The 100-150 band ought to be possible with a half-decent leader. But the Tories don’t have a half-decent leader.
    I watched and it was fine and he answered questions well.

    Compared to Starmer, whose speeches make watching paint dry exciting, Sunak is a perfectly good speaker
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,146
    edited February 2023

    ’Why do the polls seemed unmoved by the departure of Nicola Sturgeon, and who might replace her?’

    Although early, it does not appear that SNP voters are apt to desert the party, or even become more undecided post the announced departure of Nicola Sturgeon – who is surely one of Britain’s most successful politicians ever in terms of winning elections. When we put to voters in the poll to what extent (did Sturgeon’s departure) make you more or less likely to vote for the SNP? looking at those who said more likely minus those saying less likely actually resulted in a +5% net more likely to vote SNP figure when viewing attitudes of those who voted for the party in the 2021 Holyrood constituency vote.

    It is therefore entirely possible therefore that the SNP’s loyal voter base are really not voting for the party based on it’s leader to any meaningful extent, and/or potentially see the Sturgeon years as having run their course – a sentiment seemingly shared by the FM herself. Three-quarters of 2014 Yes voters would vote SNP at a Westminster election, and so it remains clear that independence attitudes loom large as a strong driver for SNP party choice.


    https://www.survation.com/scotlands-political-landscape-after-nicola-sturgeon/

    Doesn't surprise me: it sounds about right. The PBTory cultists have been doing too muich projecting of their own personal cultism of "Boris this LIz that". I'm surprised they weren't thinking their own pronouncements through about national culture and remembering the old saying about 'kent yer faither' aleays being in the background music.
  • Scott_xP said:

    It used to be the SNP’s mantra that if they showed they could govern well under devolution, voters would flock to the independence banner. But under Sturgeon there has been a litany of domestic policy failure.

    One SNP MP remarked of Sturgeon’s government: “They couldn’t deliver a pizza. If they were asked to deliver a pizza they would set up a working group, would have a public consultation, then an over-engineered plan. The pizza would be square instead of round, would cost twice as much as originally thought and take three time as long to make.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-resignation-future-snp-scottish-independence-questions-26sn0rrk9

    Don't knock square pizza. I still miss the ones we used to get when we lived on Teesside.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,248
    edited February 2023
    I really hope Humza Yousaf wins (he won’t) because anyone who can be parodied this brutally would be a disaster


    https://twitter.com/hoodwink795/status/1626628106864689169?s=46&t=JRrTzS44JSqhTJWuAKv38g
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    edited February 2023
    HYUFD said:

    What a cruel bastard King Charles III is, how can he treat his brother like this and make him homeless? No wonder the King's son hates him.


    Fortunately for Andrew though Kings no longer put brothers who have become a nuisance in the Tower of London.

    He will just have to find a detached house in Surrey
    I hear Woking has good places to eat.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,396

    Chris said:

    The spectacle of the last two Tory prime ministers, having failed abysmally in their own premierships, trying to undermine their successor in the most public way possible, is an absolute joy to behold.

    Is it too much to hope that Theresa May will join in? Or David Cameron?

    Yes, because they've got more class than that. Possibly not much more in Cameron's case, but sufficiently more.

    Heck, even Heath stuck to sour muttering in the main.
    Theresa May has made repeated interventions, the most recent being to advocate strongly against amending her ill-considered modern slavery bill which is being used as an unanswerable asylum claim by boat people. Cameron maintains a classy silence, but Osborne intervenes enough for both of them, constantly telling everyone what to do in the most strident of terms, and most recently seen cockily insisting that no Tory Government would ever leave the ECHR regardless of whether it was in their manifesto. He even runs a newspaper to do so.
    The idea former PMs shouldn't intervene which some Express is a nonsense in my books. They may choose not to as being counter productive in most instances since most careers end in failure etc, but no reason they couldn't.

    Both May and Boris absolutely should feel the right to do so as both are still MPs. Any interventions should be judged on merit.

    Osborne was never leader so why shouldn't he become a pundit?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Heathener said:

    "I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game." @TSE

    Good morning all.

    1. Starmer doesn't need to up his game

    2. It's good that he is no Blair. Boris and Cameron have made that kind of politician toxic.

    3. Starmer has expunged Corbyn's anti-semitic legacy

    4. Labour don't need Scotland but they are recovering well there.

    5. Believe the polls

    6. I am not merely confident, I am certain, that Labour will win a thumping great majority. We have witnessed a sea change.

    7. But you are right. This won't be 1997 Redux. It will be far, far, worse for the tories. In 1997 the economy was in great shape. Now it has tanked. Everyone I know is STILL talking about that Liz Truss budget and Labour will continue to remind us of it. The tories have done 1000x worse in the last 4 years than they did back then on every level, including corruption and sleaze. Which is really saying something.

    They are in for an absolute pounding. 100-150 seats but my latest reckoning is that they may go sub 100.

    Opinium last night already had the Tories back up to 178 seats and better than 1997 and 2001 and far off sub 100 where Truss was heading for
  • Sean_F said:

    Not a single tomato to be had in Cardiff (Sainsbury’s, Lidl, Morrisons)
    #EmptyShelves
    Apparently “supply issues”
    #BrexitBritain
    Also British greenhouses cannot afford to put on the heating
    #ToryCostOfLivingCrisis


    https://twitter.com/jonnyfawr/status/1626632317056712710?s=46&t=eNsBLMSATSn17GYQMqF1Tw

    Maybe he should have gone in the morning?
    Brexit terrific before noon.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,161
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    "I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game." @TSE

    Good morning all.

    1. Starmer doesn't need to up his game

    2. It's good that he is no Blair. Boris and Cameron have made that kind of politician toxic.

    3. Starmer has expunged Corbyn's anti-semitic legacy

    4. Labour don't need Scotland but they are recovering well there.

    5. Believe the polls

    6. I am not merely confident, I am certain, that Labour will win a thumping great majority. We have witnessed a sea change.

    7. But you are right. This won't be 1997 Redux. It will be far, far, worse for the tories. In 1997 the economy was in great shape. Now it has tanked. Everyone I know is STILL talking about that Liz Truss budget and Labour will continue to remind us of it. The tories have done 1000x worse in the last 4 years than they did back then on every level, including corruption and sleaze. Which is really saying something.

    They are in for an absolute pounding. 100-150 seats but my latest reckoning is that they may go sub 100.

    Did you hear that dreadful Rishi Sunak speech in Munich? OMFG. He sounds like a precocious 14 year old reading his script (the teacher gave it a C+) in front of the class, very poorly. Really eye-wateringly poorly. This man is going to get savaged during the election campaign.

    The 100-150 band ought to be possible with a half-decent leader. But the Tories don’t have a half-decent leader.
    I watched and it was fine and he answered questions well.

    Compared to Starmer, whose speeches making watching paint dry exciting, Sunak is a perfectly good speaker
    They’re both reasonable but not electrifying speakers.

    In recent* years Blair, Hague, Cameron, Miliband, May and Johnson were all good orators. Brown, Howard, Corbyn, Starmer and Sunak mediocre. Truss and IDS awful. Kinnock was world class.

    Corbyn was overrated as a speaker. His fans loved him but I always felt his oratory was awkward and disjointed.

    *as I get older “recent” takes on a more extended meaning.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,396
    HYUFD said:

    What a cruel bastard King Charles III is, how can he treat his brother like this and make him homeless? No wonder the King's son hates him.


    Fortunately for Andrew though Kings no longer put brothers who have become a nuisance in the Tower of London.
    Could be worse - Edward IV had his brother executed and his other brother killed his kids, so the Windsor familial disputes are no biggie.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited February 2023

    - “… if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views…”

    Oh look! Second post-resignation poll in a row with SNP well above that YouGov level (which was 38% incidentally, not the 29% shouted out in the PB piece.)

    Funny how neither the Savanta (SNP 42%) nor this Survation poll got reported by PB. I thought this was meant to be a service for punters?

    The SNP remain in a strong position in our 1st poll that has fieldwork conducted after Nicola Sturgeon’s surprise resignation last week. At 43% the party would be just 2% shy of their solid 2019 Westminster showing.

    SNP 43% (+1)
    LAB 30% (+1)
    CON 17% (-)
    LD 6% (-1)
    Others 3% (-1)


    https://twitter.com/survation/status/1627002594676690946?s=46&t=eNsBLMSATSn17GYQMqF1Tw

    Even that poll has Labour gaining 8 SNP seats.

    That is before the Labour attack machine lays into Kate Forbes as an anti abortion member of an anti homosexual marriage church, if as is likely she succeeds Sturgeon as FM
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    What a cruel bastard King Charles III is, how can he treat his brother like this and make him homeless? No wonder the King's son hates him.


    Fortunately for Andrew though Kings no longer put brothers who have become a nuisance in the Tower of London.
    Could be worse - Edward IV had his brother executed and his other brother killed his kids, so the Windsor familial disputes are no biggie.
    Don't tell Philippa Langley the latter though, we watched the Lost King last night
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:
    The DUP will probably be key here. During the Brexit wrangling during the May days there were lots of Tory MPs essentially using them as a proxy to decide how they would fall on a matter. A hardcore would act regardless, but others knew if the DUP said an outcome was unacceptable that was good cover for them to stick to their own resistance.

    Boris, despite criticising his own protocol, has plenty of reason to be a troublemaker for Sunak and play the principled defender against a new shit deal, but it will be interesting how many he can carry with him, if the DUP claim it is an improvement.
    The DUP need to be careful. My understanding is that the majority on Northern Ireland accept the protocol even if it isn't ideal. If Sunak can get some kind of improvement - different lanes for goods going only to NI - support there would likely grow and do Tory MPs really want to die in a ditch for a recalcitrant minority in Ulster?
    The DUP seem, externally, to be very unprepared for the situation in NI to develop. They seem to be stuck in 'Never, Never, Never, Never' mode, and even when they co-operate they seem on the look out for something to then cause a crisis about. Not unusual historically in NI politics, perhaps, but the others seem to be adopting more flexible attitudes, or at least making the noises about being flexible.
    Do they not realise how dependent they are on the UK state? They ought to be careful not to try the government's patience.
    The ERG are backing the DUP and without them Sunak has no majority.

    Though Beattie's UUP are a bit more open to the proposed Protocol updates than the DUP
    If Sunak gets the support of the Labour Party over the protocol he does .

    You are delusional in your expectations. Johnson needs a military coup to a) keep his DUP, ERG gravy train on the rails and b) to stop Hattie's committee from lining up a recall in Uxbridge.
    I’ll this keep this short for you. Bottom line, you may need to be fair to HY for once.

    I can recall a time, when Boris criticised May’s deal as “here’s the kicker, a border in the Irish Sea.”

    Okay - but his own deal then created a border in the Irish Sea, because at that point his election ticket was get Brexit done AND the EU were not caving in like they have now. But that’s not the point. The point is there is and always has been very wide support for the point of principle, NO BORDER IN THE IRISH SEA.

    It’s not really such a wacky principle for Unionist Parties.
    Thank you for keeping it short. I think I almost kept up.

    The reality is there has to be a border somewhere after we decided we didn't want frictionless trading terms and freedom of movement with the EU. So that border has to be a) in the Irish Sea, which is very bad or b) at Dundalk and two miles West of Derry which is very, very bad.

    I am disappointed that when Mr Johnson wrote himself two cost- benefit analyses of what Brexit would mean, he omitted to consider putting a border either in the North Channel or along the A1 to Dublin would be problematic.

    The fact that the corpulent one-trick pony believes for the third time he can fell a Conservative Prime Minister using the same page in his playbook, and the reality is that he might actually succeed, beggars belief.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046

    A warning to psephologists, and punters.

    3% of the Scottish electorate believe Stuart Lewis would do a good job as First Minister. But twice as many believe he would do a bad job as FM.
    Stuart Lewis is a fictional name in the survey.😂
    #StuartLewis4FM



    https://twitter.com/jamesrwithers/status/1626652144337096707?s=46&t=eNsBLMSATSn17GYQMqF1Tw

    On the other hand, with a name like Stuart, he must be a good egg.
    Perhaps they objected to the French spelling of 'Stewart'.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The SNP does not deserve to succeed at present because it has not done the work necessary to provide a plausible, let alone an attractive, blueprint for how independence might actually function. Currency? No idea. The Anglo-Scottish frontier? Not a clue. Joining the EU? Don’t worry about that. Better, instead, to simply assume all will be well, hold hands, and jump together.

    Sturgeon’s tactic was route one all the time. If plan A didn’t work, switch to plan A but harder this time. For all her other qualities, the outgoing first minister is neither a deep thinker nor someone emotionally equipped to understand her opponents. Convinced of her own righteousness and armour-plated by her faith in destiny, she never paused to consider how she might look to those not already aboard the nationalist hype-train. The limitations of this approach should surely be apparent by now.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sturgeon-left-at-a-loss-by-union-s-resilience-5p9zl9vwk

    And this is my major problem with Scottish independence. I totally get it's appeal and the romance of it and "Iceland can do it" etc etc.

    Yes. Fine. Now let's talk details. Because under any executive summary needs to be a fuckton of detail which can be called up for justification. And they simply don't know. Or in reality they do know but won't talk about it.

    When you are selling romance, a warm fuzzy idea, the detail spoils it. What one person might prefer is bad to another. So they say nothing. And a big leap in the dark off a cliff is a Bad Idea. As Brexit demonstrated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited February 2023
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    "I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game." @TSE

    Good morning all.

    1. Starmer doesn't need to up his game

    2. It's good that he is no Blair. Boris and Cameron have made that kind of politician toxic.

    3. Starmer has expunged Corbyn's anti-semitic legacy

    4. Labour don't need Scotland but they are recovering well there.

    5. Believe the polls

    6. I am not merely confident, I am certain, that Labour will win a thumping great majority. We have witnessed a sea change.

    7. But you are right. This won't be 1997 Redux. It will be far, far, worse for the tories. In 1997 the economy was in great shape. Now it has tanked. Everyone I know is STILL talking about that Liz Truss budget and Labour will continue to remind us of it. The tories have done 1000x worse in the last 4 years than they did back then on every level, including corruption and sleaze. Which is really saying something.

    They are in for an absolute pounding. 100-150 seats but my latest reckoning is that they may go sub 100.

    Did you hear that dreadful Rishi Sunak speech in Munich? OMFG. He sounds like a precocious 14 year old reading his script (the teacher gave it a C+) in front of the class, very poorly. Really eye-wateringly poorly. This man is going to get savaged during the election campaign.

    The 100-150 band ought to be possible with a half-decent leader. But the Tories don’t have a half-decent leader.
    I watched and it was fine and he answered questions well.

    Compared to Starmer, whose speeches making watching paint dry exciting, Sunak is a perfectly good speaker
    They’re both reasonable but not electrifying speakers.

    In recent* years Blair, Hague, Cameron, Miliband, May and Johnson were all good orators. Brown, Howard, Corbyn, Starmer and Sunak mediocre. Truss and IDS awful. Kinnock was world class.

    Corbyn was overrated as a speaker. His fans loved him but I always felt his oratory was awkward and disjointed.

    *as I get older “recent” takes on a more extended meaning.
    Hague, Cameron, Blair and Kinnock were by far the best speakers and orators of the last 40 years amongst the main party leaders. Though 2 of them won, 2 of them also lost so great oratory is not enough to win general elections.

    Boris was more amusing than great speaker
  • A FORMER SNP minister has spoken out against Kate Forbes becoming leader of the party – saying her previous comments on LGBT rights were not "acceptable".

    Marco Biagi, who voted for gay marriage while an MSP, said Forbes’s past refusal to say she supported the policy was “enough” for him to oppose any leadership pitch from the Finance Secretary.

    Forbes made a comment against abortion at an event in 2018 and repeatedly evaded questions on her stance on equal marriage during a podcast interview with The Guardian in 2020.


    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23331359.kate-forbes-slammed-past-lgbt-rights-comments-ex-snp-minister/
  • TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    "I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game." @TSE

    Good morning all.

    1. Starmer doesn't need to up his game

    2. It's good that he is no Blair. Boris and Cameron have made that kind of politician toxic.

    3. Starmer has expunged Corbyn's anti-semitic legacy

    4. Labour don't need Scotland but they are recovering well there.

    5. Believe the polls

    6. I am not merely confident, I am certain, that Labour will win a thumping great majority. We have witnessed a sea change.

    7. But you are right. This won't be 1997 Redux. It will be far, far, worse for the tories. In 1997 the economy was in great shape. Now it has tanked. Everyone I know is STILL talking about that Liz Truss budget and Labour will continue to remind us of it. The tories have done 1000x worse in the last 4 years than they did back then on every level, including corruption and sleaze. Which is really saying something.

    They are in for an absolute pounding. 100-150 seats but my latest reckoning is that they may go sub 100.

    Did you hear that dreadful Rishi Sunak speech in Munich? OMFG. He sounds like a precocious 14 year old reading his script (the teacher gave it a C+) in front of the class, very poorly. Really eye-wateringly poorly. This man is going to get savaged during the election campaign.

    The 100-150 band ought to be possible with a half-decent leader. But the Tories don’t have a half-decent leader.
    I watched and it was fine and he answered questions well.

    Compared to Starmer, whose speeches making watching paint dry exciting, Sunak is a perfectly good speaker
    They’re both reasonable but not electrifying speakers.

    In recent* years Blair, Hague, Cameron, Miliband, May and Johnson were all good orators. Brown, Howard, Corbyn, Starmer and Sunak mediocre. Truss and IDS awful. Kinnock was world class.

    Corbyn was overrated as a speaker. His fans loved him but I always felt his oratory was awkward and disjointed.

    *as I get older “recent” takes on a more extended meaning.
    "We're alright!" rightly gets mocked. But if you want to see the power of Kinnock it's that co ference speech where he took on Militant. Fantastic oratory.

    I also enjoy Ravey Mikey Govey. He has given some brilliant dispatch box performances, albeit coked off his tits.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585

    If Sagan is right - I suspect he is -

    Not a single tomato to be had in Cardiff (Sainsbury’s, Lidl, Morrisons)
    #EmptyShelves
    Apparently “supply issues”
    #BrexitBritain
    Also British greenhouses cannot afford to put on the heating
    #ToryCostOfLivingCrisis


    https://twitter.com/jonnyfawr/status/1626632317056712710?s=46&t=eNsBLMSATSn17GYQMqF1Tw

    There’s loads of these type of pics popping up on my Twitter feed from all across the UK, often helpfully contrasted with shelves groaning under the weight of fresh produce in the EU.

    Supposedly, one woman complained about the lack of fresh produce and was told by an employee that it was due to bad weather affecting crops. The employee then helpfully added that that’s what management had told them to say, but really it’s because of Brexit.

    If it is due to crop shortages, they don’t seem to have affected yields in the EU.
    And Twitter delivers right on cue.


    Of course it's sodding Brexit. It has totally fucked over farmers and fishermen. As they are telling anyone who will listen. And yet wazzock Tories (David Duguid as an example) keep saying how it's great and that they are listening to the very same farmers and fishermen detailing why it isn't great.
    In all fairness to Duguid, he is not alone, the Fat former- Controller is trying to resurrect the unicorn dream despite all the evidence pointing to him having already royally f***** up.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046
    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    The spectacle of the last two Tory prime ministers, having failed abysmally in their own premierships, trying to undermine their successor in the most public way possible, is an absolute joy to behold.

    Is it too much to hope that Theresa May will join in? Or David Cameron?

    Yes, because they've got more class than that. Possibly not much more in Cameron's case, but sufficiently more.

    Heck, even Heath stuck to sour muttering in the main.
    Theresa May has made repeated interventions, the most recent being to advocate strongly against amending her ill-considered modern slavery bill which is being used as an unanswerable asylum claim by boat people. Cameron maintains a classy silence, but Osborne intervenes enough for both of them, constantly telling everyone what to do in the most strident of terms, and most recently seen cockily insisting that no Tory Government would ever leave the ECHR regardless of whether it was in their manifesto. He even runs a newspaper to do so.
    The idea former PMs shouldn't intervene which some Express is a nonsense in my books. They may choose not to as being counter productive in most instances since most careers end in failure etc, but no reason they couldn't.

    Both May and Boris absolutely should feel the right to do so as both are still MPs. Any interventions should be judged on merit.

    Osborne was never leader so why shouldn't he become a pundit?
    No reason, I was just correcting a misleading impression. Some posters are very fond of complaining about the UNSPEAKABLY AWFUL behaviour of Johnson, and latterly Truss, and ignoring exactly the same behaviour from those who they support.

    Another example is the anger toward Truss and the 'Growth Group', who have actually been very loyal, just formed a caucus and suggested pro-growth policies to the Chancellor and PM. By contrast, the Sunakites spent the Truss era constantly briefing the papers about how deluded, mad, and awful Truss was, the dreadful fractious state of the party etc. I didn't see them gathering a dossier of 'pro-tax' (or whatever they're into) policies and trying to make their case to Kwasi. But apparently they're the better behaved ones.
  • Reluctant as I am to disagree with one of the world's greatest pineapple connoisseurs, I have to say that TSE may have this slightly wrong.

    Take a look, for example, at clunky old Electoral Calculus. OK we all know its limitations but it is suggesting 83 Tory seats, ffs. And there is no reason to think that if it is wrong it is wrong on the downside. It could be worse. Reason? Well, tactical voting for a start.

    I wouldn't be betting on NOM. I don't think I'd be majoring on a LabMaj.

    I think I might be chancing my arm on a meltdown. That, I suspect, is where the value lies.

    I think the odds for a meltdown will be high but they will be accurately priced. Not sure that makes it value.

    Reasons for thinking it's not likely:

    - none of the parties inspire
    - residual distrust of Labour and what it stands for, particularly on cultural issues
    - While Brexit has faded as an issue, it is still an issue for some

    The best chance of a meltdown bet coming off is a historically very low turnout election with Labour eking out a large number of fairly narrow wins and the LDs expanding the map.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    edited February 2023
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    "I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game." @TSE

    Good morning all.

    1. Starmer doesn't need to up his game

    2. It's good that he is no Blair. Boris and Cameron have made that kind of politician toxic.

    3. Starmer has expunged Corbyn's anti-semitic legacy

    4. Labour don't need Scotland but they are recovering well there.

    5. Believe the polls

    6. I am not merely confident, I am certain, that Labour will win a thumping great majority. We have witnessed a sea change.

    7. But you are right. This won't be 1997 Redux. It will be far, far, worse for the tories. In 1997 the economy was in great shape. Now it has tanked. Everyone I know is STILL talking about that Liz Truss budget and Labour will continue to remind us of it. The tories have done 1000x worse in the last 4 years than they did back then on every level, including corruption and sleaze. Which is really saying something.

    They are in for an absolute pounding. 100-150 seats but my latest reckoning is that they may go sub 100.

    Did you hear that dreadful Rishi Sunak speech in Munich? OMFG. He sounds like a precocious 14 year old reading his script (the teacher gave it a C+) in front of the class, very poorly. Really eye-wateringly poorly. This man is going to get savaged during the election campaign.

    The 100-150 band ought to be possible with a half-decent leader. But the Tories don’t have a half-decent leader.
    I watched and it was fine and he answered questions well.

    Compared to Starmer, whose speeches making watching paint dry exciting, Sunak is a perfectly good speaker
    They’re both reasonable but not electrifying speakers.

    In recent* years Blair, Hague, Cameron, Miliband, May and Johnson were all good orators. Brown, Howard, Corbyn, Starmer and Sunak mediocre. Truss and IDS awful. Kinnock was world class.

    Corbyn was overrated as a speaker. His fans loved him but I always felt his oratory was awkward and disjointed.

    *as I get older “recent” takes on a more extended meaning.
    Where do we get the notion that Johnson is a great orator from exactly? From Johnson himself.

    If florid language and outrageous pomposity is your bag well fair enough, but on the flip side we have Peppa Pig.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    edited February 2023

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    The spectacle of the last two Tory prime ministers, having failed abysmally in their own premierships, trying to undermine their successor in the most public way possible, is an absolute joy to behold.

    Is it too much to hope that Theresa May will join in? Or David Cameron?

    Yes, because they've got more class than that. Possibly not much more in Cameron's case, but sufficiently more.

    Heck, even Heath stuck to sour muttering in the main.
    Theresa May has made repeated interventions, the most recent being to advocate strongly against amending her ill-considered modern slavery bill which is being used as an unanswerable asylum claim by boat people. Cameron maintains a classy silence, but Osborne intervenes enough for both of them, constantly telling everyone what to do in the most strident of terms, and most recently seen cockily insisting that no Tory Government would ever leave the ECHR regardless of whether it was in their manifesto. He even runs a newspaper to do so.
    The idea former PMs shouldn't intervene which some Express is a nonsense in my books. They may choose not to as being counter productive in most instances since most careers end in failure etc, but no reason they couldn't.

    Both May and Boris absolutely should feel the right to do so as both are still MPs. Any interventions should be judged on merit.

    Osborne was never leader so why shouldn't he become a pundit?
    By contrast, the Sunakites spent the Truss era constantly briefing the papers about how deluded, mad, and awful Truss was, the dreadful fractious state of the party etc.
    To be fair, Sunak was correct on this. Truss is the new Ratner, as in the phrase "she Trussed the brand".

  • pm215pm215 Posts: 926
    Leon said:


    However, unlike that earlier paradoxical uplift, I don’t expect this one to last. Sturgeon’s departure IS a blow, and she was a unifying figure in what is a deeply divided party, I can’t see any of the aspiring candidates matching her ability in this way - Forbes is too right wing and Wee Free, Robertson is too boring and tainted, etc

    There will surely be tartan blood on the carpet. So the Nats will eventually suffer for this, and the YES vote might enter a gentle but less spectacular decline “

    Yes, that seems plausible to me -- even if a given leader was who persuaded you to support party X originally, once you're there your views aren't going to shift that quickly just because that leader is stepping down. It's the successor arriving and starting to be active and visible as the new leader that can make a difference, potentially pushing you away if the style and policies are unpalatable. Or it might make very little difference if the SNP manage to pick well, as they did the last two time around.
This discussion has been closed.