Can anything shift the polls Sunak’s way? – politicalbetting.com
Can anything shift the polls Sunak’s way? – politicalbetting.com
This week Sunak completed his first 100 days in Downing Street and looks pretty solid to continue there until the general election.
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Perhaps the Tories biggest enemy is themselves?
Tory v Whig, Court v Country.
The “court party” reproached their antagonists with their affinity to the fanatical conventiclers in Scotland, who were known by the name of Whigs. Scottish cattle-drovers (stereotypically radical anti-Catholic Covenanters), was the abusive term directed at those who wanted to exclude James on the grounds that he was a Catholic. Meanwhile Those who were not prepared to exclude James were labelled "Abhorrers" and later "Tories". The country party found a resemblance between the courtiers and the popish banditti in Ireland, to whom the appellation of Tory was affixed.
The Whig Party and the Tory Party dominated British politics during the 18th century. The major difference in the two is the Tories tend to support a stronger monarchy, whereas Whigs wanted a limited monarchy and more power for Parliament.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whiggism
Yes.
For sure the Tory government under Rishi are smart enough to have war gamed this coming 24 months and know exactly what they are doing.
They know once inflation drops rapidly to 4% as every type of economist is agreed will happen this year, this tough stance now on pay rises from the government will be hailed for achieving the exciting inflation drop, and they will be chaired around the streets in triumph as true heirs of Lady Thatcher saviours of the nation for the inflation busting toughness they have shown. So by the time the election comes there will something akin to the unstoppable vaccine bounce or falklands factor going on.
This few months of bad polling will just be remembered as wee bit of mid term turbulence, like Lady Thatcher experienced before two huge landslide wins.
Korea's Criminal Law defines the crime of rape as sexual activity against one's will involving "violence or intimidation." As such, in order to secure a rape conviction, prosecutors must prove that the perpetrator had used or threatened violence against the victim. Sexual assault against a victim in a vulnerable state, such as under the influence of alcohol or drugs, is seen as "quasi-rape."…
Social attitudes have changed massively in South Korea in recent decades, but remain quite regressive in terms of women’s rights - something which is also a strong dividing line between liberal and conservative politics.
Note that the change in the law was proposed, and rejected, by the current conservative administration. Korean liberal politicians would have enacted it.
It’s not all that long ago that the UK was every bit as bad, as you will recall.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_in_English_law#History
… In January 1982, the Government accepted an amendment to the Criminal Justice Bill the effect of which, if enacted, would be to compel judges to sentence men convicted of rape to imprisonment. This followed a case earlier that month in which John Allen, 33, businessman and convicted of raping a 17-year-old hitchhiker, had been fined £2,000 by Judge Bernard Richard, who alleged the victim's "contributory negligence".
Perhaps, but it's very hard to see. Even if the Conservatives stopped trying to cannibalise themselves and the Government became decisive and competent, numerous strategic factors are against them.
Football: pleasantly surprised both Ligue 1 bets came off. Lovely start to February, with Lille drawing and Rennes scoring thrice.
Yep!
@MikeSmithson
Unless it's parody?
Sorry.
x
It's all over. Nothing is going to stop this.
The real question is how far they will sink. I don't think they will have total Canada wipeout but if they continue as they are it's not impossible.
I've said 100-150 Conservative seats but I'm beginning to think the lower end of that. A crushing defeat is coming.
And anyone thinking they have 24 months is batshit crazy. The very latest they will go is October next year and even that will get ridiculed in the media. The longer this drags the worse it looks for them.
Seventies strikes perpetuated inflation, Lady Thatcher smashing strikes just like Rishi is doing, saved us from high inflation and being sick man of Europe.
You sure inflation won’t be 4% within the year, and Tories benefitting in polls from achieving that?
It’s the on-edge feeling of every penultimate scene in a horror movie, when you think they’re dead.
We still fear the final jump-scare.
Tories are beginning to knock lumps out of SNP and Labour in woke wars now.
Also Labour anti semitism is trending again, linking Jews to fascism and apartheid.
Polling shows widespread support for the strikers, and were inflation to halve by the year end, prices will still be going up, and workers pushing for catch up pay rises.
I would also say that I think you’ve got strikes and inflation the wrong way round. A loose monetary policy coupled with commodity spikes were the cause of inflation, which was what led to strikes due to lagging pay (hence why Heath considered monthly pay rises). If that sounds familiar…remember that it destroyed the careers of Wilson, Heath and Callaghan.
That could swiftly shift from about now, could it not?
That’s not a negligible sized group. Although Hyufd will be along shortly to claim those groups always vote Labour anyway because they live in tents. Or something.
Also, that was an example. How many Tory voters are worried about the state of an NHS many of them rely on due to age, which is in just as bad a mess as education? Or delays in paying pensions?
Since it ignores a thousand other circumstances.
I'm old enough to have voted Conservative in 1983. I won't be repeating that this time around.
*we're not supposed to call them junior doctors any more.
Brexit is one of the factors behind the UK’s economic underperformance
https://www.ft.com/content/d0ddd1b9-731f-42db-b206-af5c5162d7ab
Plans to proscribe Iran’s Revolutionary Guard have been stalled after the Foreign Office raised concerns about keeping communication channels open with the regime.
Suella Braverman, the home secretary, and Tom Tugendhat, the security minister, support moves to declare the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist group.
MI5 has accused Iran of plotting the assassination or kidnap of British residents on at least ten occasions last year. Last month the regime executed a British-Iranian national accused of spying.
Sources said, however, that the Foreign Office blocked the move to proscribe the IRGC, citing the need to keep communication channels open. Officials also raised concerns about how it would be defined as a terrorist group because it was a government agency, unlike most other proscribed bodies.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/outlawing-iranian-guards-as-terrorists-is-put-on-hold-rbvnnq7zz
Lady Thatcher?
I've heard her called many things. But never that in an informal setting.
Dominic Raab has declared he has never sworn or shouted in a meeting after it was claimed he roared “bullshit” in response to a senior official’s briefing he disagreed with.
As officials made further claims of poor behaviour from the deputy prime minister, his allies launched a fightback, suggesting that civil servants were trying to force him out.
The investigation into Raab is now understood to be focusing on whether he knew the effect his behaviour was having on staff, a judgment that could be crucial to the justice secretary’s political future.
Adam Tolley KC, who is leading the investigation into bullying claims, is attempting to decide if Raab deliberately pilloried staff or was oblivious to how his officials were reacting.
Complainants believe that Raab knew what he was doing, saying he could “turn it off and on” at will and would behave better around people he wanted to impress. Raab denies bullying.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dominic-raab-bullied-junior-ministers-2xzmbtjw2
The Archbishop of Canterbury told a group of MPs that he would rather see the Church of England lose its status as an established church than risk a global organisation fracturing over clashes on gay marriage, The Times understands.
The Most Rev Justin Welby is said to have made the comment at a private meeting with MPs in Westminster this week.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/justin-welby-unity-on-gay-rights-is-a-priority-602rdtfgv
This would matter less if they weren’t utterly convinced of their own wisdom and knowledge.
Andrew Cayley KC, chief inspector of the Crown Prosecution Service, told The Times that a shortage of senior barristers available to be instructed by the state needed to be addressed. He blamed the deal that settled the barristers’ strike last year, when the government increased defence legal aid fees by 15 per cent, for the lack of barristers prepared to take CPS instructions. Cayley called on ministers to equalise the pay rates for defence and prosecution barristers.
One senior criminal law barrister said he appeared for the defence in a rape trial at a regional crown court last week where a very junior lawyer who did not hold a “Rasso ticket” appeared for the prosecution. The so-called tickets are given by the CPS to experienced barristers who are the preferred lawyers for rape and sexual offence cases. Cayley said he had heard of “a limited number” of similar accounts.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pay-blamed-as-rape-trials-left-to-junior-prosecutors-llbs3b30b
The Tory MPs lining up to say "I know Dominic well, and I've never seen such behaviour" are taking the piss (or are terminally stupid).
The really worrying thing is that he ever appointed them.
For one thing, despite their massive unpopularity among their enemies, which spread to many others during the midterms, the Tories back then did take care to create a stream of wins from things like selling off council houses, and the little bonanzas people got from buying underpriced privatisation shares. Who feels they are winning anything now?
The brand is tarnished, the national context is grim and getting grimmer, and if there were something simple which would lead to a significant reversal itd have been done by now.
I sure as hell wasn't doing it for the money. The job satisfaction, however, was immense.
There is no news from the Kok
Very few are going to enjoy that process and the government will get the blame: after all it is hardly our fault that as a country we live on credit, beyond our means, selling off our assets to pay for imports and mortgaging our future income to maintain our current standard of living is it? Is it?
#BluePill
MmmmmBop?
However, for that to happen Sunak will need to stop making unforced errors.
It would also do wonders for growth.
There seems to be no sign that will change. They can't seem to help it.
A strategy is needed though, and I suspect something like that will be it.
The greatest chance is that by the GE the Tory polling and outcome will be quite a bit better than the wipeout currently indicated.
Smaller chances: The wipeout currently indicated. Tories to get most seats. Tories to retain a majority.
The greatest likelihood is somewhere between a Lab victory and and a Lab victory short of 325 seats.
It is unlikely that anything the Tories can do will shift the polls. It will be the fear of Labour left and Labour in the hands of the SNP that will bring things back a little nearer normality.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/british-false-modesty-is-worse-than-bragging-f9x939dwj
YouGov polling for Times Radio reveals the verdict of voters on the PM.
First, the g… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621060424023298054
More on your 📻 from… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621060430063083521
Simple Things I Learned About China
5 1/2 lessons of experience. I bet most foreigners who have lived in China would give you a similar account.
https://fallows.substack.com/p/simple-things-i-learned-about-china
Even though inflation may be back to 3% by GE time late 2024 we would have had lots of accumulated inflation which will have eroded the value of people's savings earnings and pensions. Not all pensions are fully indexed linked against CPI!
Imagine if, for example, Fred Goodwin, Mark James, Simon Case, Amanda Spielman, Suella Braverman or Liz Truss could understand their own abilities and weaknesses properly, so they could get jobs on their intellectual and moral level. What a boon that would be to the nation.
Has Leon hacked your account?
That is much harder to call. The indyvoters provide a floor for Sturgeon… but she must be damaged by the Trans (sorry!) stuff
If Labour - as some sub samples suggest - go well over 30% of the Scottish vote they will surely start taking quite a few seats from the Nits. That will in turn have implications for Holyrood
It's what ensures turnout.
OLB is being honest about his uncertainty.
On the same topic, you may find this of interest as well. I used to set it as reading when teaching Mao's China at A-level:
http://www.martinjacques.com/uncategorised/civilization-state-versus-nation-state/
On topic, I was hugely amused to see the latest round in the Tory strategy to attack Labour's unions. When the news is so full of scandal about Tories stealing public money or awarding prominent jobs to mates in exchange for cash, its brave to go and attack striking nurses whose union Is Not Affiliated To Labour.
In essence the Tories think the public are stupid and are prepared to exploit that stupidity. Except that despite the endless "news" from the Tory media, the public have seen straight through it.
The Conservative Party is openly and shamelessly corrupt. Shilling to get them reelected so that more of our money can be stolen by their spivvy patrons is a thankless task.
Then once the deficit has been cut he can look towards tax cuts before the general election. Brexit has been done so is less of a distraction as it was in the last Parliament, even if a deal over NI would help
He should also look to regular debates with Starmer, I suspect he will do quite well with them with the public. He won most of the leadership debates with the public last summer after all
In the 80s it took a get deal of pain and time to squeeze inflation out of economies. This is where the Thatcher hatred came from, after all.
Even after the primary drivers of inflation drop back - fuel and imported materials (disrupted supply chains from COVID), the secondary effects send ripples through the economy - pay rises for example. It will take time for them to drop back. Then the price rises that higher pay awards will take time to stop rising…
It’s also arguable that we have forgotten how to fight inflation - by excluding housing costs, we relied on the collapse of consumer goods price (China) and services (low end jobs falling behind) to achieve the apparently low inflation.
But with double digit housing cost increases in many years - what was real inflation?