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Can anything shift the polls Sunak’s way? – politicalbetting.com

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  • maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    They are largely making profits abroad - and bringing the profits here. The items they are writing off against tax - such as North Sea decommissioning are things that various UK governments have explicitly stated are tax write-offs.
    The question was whether the profits are indefensible rather than complying with our tax law. Yes they comply with tax laws but that does not answer the question.
    And the answer is no, they're not indefensible. If profits are made in Qatar and brought to the UK that is better than profits going to Qatar, is it not?

    As a nation we would be far worse off if we drove away companies that make profits abroad and bring a slice of that home to boost our economy.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,230
    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell derives around 5% of its revenue from its UK activities, I think ?
    Not much we can do about the rest of it.
    Agreed. I guess I'm asking a question of principle, rather than practicality. FWIW I can see the other side of the argument - that there are more downsides than upsides to any attempt to rein in market forces - but on an intellectual level I recognise that can't hold forever, hence the question as to whether there is some limit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,641
    "Labour hopes to ensure black-led firms access lucrative government contracts"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts

    Black-led businesses could be given more support to procure lucrative government contracts by a future Labour government as the party refines its offer to ethnic minority voters ahead of the next election.

    Labour’s race equality task force, led by Baroness Doreen Lawrence, hopes to ensure that black-led groups get the chance to access a fair share of the billions of pounds paid out each year through government contracts, according to The Voice newspaper.

    The Guardian understands that the task force, co-chaired by Labour party chair Anneliese Dodds, has also proposed introducing mandatory ethnicity pay gap reporting for firms with more than 250 staff, with the aim of closing the existing gap on salaries.

    Task force member and human rights lawyer Jacqueline Mckenzie told the newspaper: “There are no black firms that currently benefit at all [from government contracts], African heritage firms.”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    Nigelb said:

    Back to betting, I think there's around an 80% chance of the Republican nominee being either Trump or DeSantis. A narrowed field increases the chances for the latter.

    The Cold Calculus Behind the Shrinking GOP Presidential Field
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/02/shrinking-field-2024-republican-presidential-candidates-00080752
    ...For all the preemptive Republican panic about a 2016 replay, and Trump claiming the nomination again thanks to a fractured opposition, the 2024 GOP field is shaping up to be smaller than expected.

    “I would’ve told you last fall that there would be five senators in the race,” Ward Baker, a Republican strategist, told me, recalling a presentation he put together for lawmakers and donors projecting at least a double-digit sized group of contenders.

    Now, Baker and other well-connected Republicans believe the ultimate field may be closer to seven or eight serious candidates with an even smaller number still standing by the time the first votes are cast in the kickoff states a year from now....

    This bit is quite amusing.

    ...In the treasurer’s race, Florida GOP chair Joe Gruters was defeated in part because he had Trump’s backing — and trumpeted the endorsement to committee members.

    Gruters’s allies texted committee members the day of the vote with a siren emoji, an all-caps headline: “PRES. TRUMP ENDORSES JOE GRUTERS FOR RNC TREASURER” and a message from Trump about his “Complete and Total Endorsement.”

    However, Gruters told me it was only supposed to go to about 20 Trump diehards on the committee and instead went to the entire 168-member party roster. That, according to Fortuno and other Trump skeptics who want a neutral leadership slate, caused a backlash on the floor and doomed Gruters’ candidacy...
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell derives around 5% of its revenue from its UK activities, I think ?
    Not much we can do about the rest of it.
    Agreed. I guess I'm asking a question of principle, rather than practicality. FWIW I can see the other side of the argument - that there are more downsides than upsides to any attempt to rein in market forces - but on an intellectual level I recognise that can't hold forever, hence the question as to whether there is some limit.
    In simplest terms, even 10% of something is better than 50% of nothing.
  • maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    And exactly how are you going to tax those profits when they are made in other tax jurisdictions and pay tax in those countries? Shell produce around 100,000 boe in the UK each day compared to their daily global production of 3.7 million boe. That is around 2.5%.

    The actual effect of the windfall tax has been to drive companies out of the North Sea as far as future investment is concerned. So reducing our energy security and reducing the tax take for the Government.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    edited February 2023
    maxh said:

    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.

    Most of that is from overseas and taxed there. In the UK they currently pay 75% on the profit from operations here.

    To be blunt if they are ripping-off anyone it's mostly foreigners, and Shell pay a lot of that money made overseas to their shareholders here. The numbers are eye watering, but it is still probably a net good for the UK for Shell to be making money like this.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    4% interest rate confirmed

    I think that is the BoE finally caught up with the surge in inflation. There will probably be another couple of 0.25% increases but my guess is that is the heavy lifting done. These interest rate increases were, of course, the main reason that the IMF were forecasting lower growth in the UK than elsewhere.
    Yes indeed interest rates likely to peak at 4.5% Spring 2023 and stay around there for rest of 2023.

    I am now projecting CPI 4% to 5% Dec 2023. Bank may leave rates at around 4% for a while to try to squeeze CPI towards 2% in 2024 although this level of CPI may be difficult to achieve.
    Good. A dose of healthy inflation is a good thing, allowing sticky prices to adjust without going negative, as opposed to rampant inflation or no inflation/deflation.

    That's the problem we've had in recent years has been rampant inflation in parts of the economy, but virtually-zero CPI, which has completely distorted the economy.

    A few years of moderate CPI inflation around the 4-5% mark, and declining house prices, will do wonders for rebalancing the economy and making life more affordable for those working for a living rather than allowing rentiers to extract all the wealth of the economy.
    Those with a mortgage however have to make higher mortgage repayments every time rates rise if not on a fixed rate
    No shit Sherlock.

    Though if there's a healthy dose of inflation then wages should be going up too, while the price of the property purchase was locked in years ago while wages were lower, so even then a higher percentage of a lower (in real terms) number while uncomfortable is not the end of the world.

    Better than people seeing house prices being unaffordable, rent as a result shooting up in real terms further and further consistently while houses are out of reach and wages are stagnant as has happened since the early New Labour years onwards.

    Speaking as someone who completed his house purchase in December, I really hope I bought at the very peak of the market and that sort of insane house price multiple is never seen again. I don't care if I "lose out" by seeing the value of my property fall in real terms, even if it leads to negative equity, I have my own home, there's millions of others who are struggling far more.
    Average wages are going up by less than inflation, hence the strikes
    They're going up by more than house prices. That's a good start.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell derives around 5% of its revenue from its UK activities, I think ?
    Not much we can do about the rest of it.
    Agreed. I guess I'm asking a question of principle, rather than practicality. FWIW I can see the other side of the argument - that there are more downsides than upsides to any attempt to rein in market forces - but on an intellectual level I recognise that can't hold forever, hence the question as to whether there is some limit.
    The limit comes, I think in terms of profit/revenue. A profit of 10% of revenue does not indicate a company that is gonging the public or being uncompetitive.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,230

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    They are largely making profits abroad - and bringing the profits here. The items they are writing off against tax - such as North Sea decommissioning are things that various UK governments have explicitly stated are tax write-offs.
    The question was whether the profits are indefensible rather than complying with our tax law. Yes they comply with tax laws but that does not answer the question.
    And the answer is no, they're not indefensible. If profits are made in Qatar and brought to the UK that is better than profits going to Qatar, is it not?

    As a nation we would be far worse off if we drove away companies that make profits abroad and bring a slice of that home to boost our economy.
    Bart we're back to a discussion we had some months ago - that makes sense if you are primarily concerned with UK prosperity. I am more interested in the global effects e.g. what is the impact on Qatar of the instance you refer to?

    But I know we won't agree on this - I respect your position, which you have argued cogently in the past.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell derives around 5% of its revenue from its UK activities, I think ?
    Not much we can do about the rest of it.
    Agreed. I guess I'm asking a question of principle, rather than practicality. FWIW I can see the other side of the argument - that there are more downsides than upsides to any attempt to rein in market forces - but on an intellectual level I recognise that can't hold forever, hence the question as to whether there is some limit.
    The realistic limit is how soon we can wean ourselves off burning oil and gas.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    "Labour hopes to ensure black-led firms access lucrative government contracts"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts

    Black-led businesses could be given more support to procure lucrative government contracts by a future Labour government as the party refines its offer to ethnic minority voters ahead of the next election.

    Labour’s race equality task force, led by Baroness Doreen Lawrence, hopes to ensure that black-led groups get the chance to access a fair share of the billions of pounds paid out each year through government contracts, according to The Voice newspaper.

    The Guardian understands that the task force, co-chaired by Labour party chair Anneliese Dodds, has also proposed introducing mandatory ethnicity pay gap reporting for firms with more than 250 staff, with the aim of closing the existing gap on salaries.

    Task force member and human rights lawyer Jacqueline Mckenzie told the newspaper: “There are no black firms that currently benefit at all [from government contracts], African heritage firms.”

    Ah, we're back to this, are we?

  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    4% interest rate confirmed

    I think that is the BoE finally caught up with the surge in inflation. There will probably be another couple of 0.25% increases but my guess is that is the heavy lifting done. These interest rate increases were, of course, the main reason that the IMF were forecasting lower growth in the UK than elsewhere.
    Yes indeed interest rates likely to peak at 4.5% Spring 2023 and stay around there for rest of 2023.

    I am now projecting CPI 4% to 5% Dec 2023. Bank may leave rates at around 4% for a while to try to squeeze CPI towards 2% in 2024 although this level of CPI may be difficult to achieve.
    Good. A dose of healthy inflation is a good thing, allowing sticky prices to adjust without going negative, as opposed to rampant inflation or no inflation/deflation.

    That's the problem we've had in recent years has been rampant inflation in parts of the economy, but virtually-zero CPI, which has completely distorted the economy.

    A few years of moderate CPI inflation around the 4-5% mark, and declining house prices, will do wonders for rebalancing the economy and making life more affordable for those working for a living rather than allowing rentiers to extract all the wealth of the economy.
    Those with a mortgage however have to make higher mortgage repayments every time rates rise if not on a fixed rate
    No shit Sherlock.

    Though if there's a healthy dose of inflation then wages should be going up too, while the price of the property purchase was locked in years ago while wages were lower, so even then a higher percentage of a lower (in real terms) number while uncomfortable is not the end of the world.

    Better than people seeing house prices being unaffordable, rent as a result shooting up in real terms further and further consistently while houses are out of reach and wages are stagnant as has happened since the early New Labour years onwards.

    Speaking as someone who completed his house purchase in December, I really hope I bought at the very peak of the market and that sort of insane house price multiple is never seen again. I don't care if I "lose out" by seeing the value of my property fall in real terms, even if it leads to negative equity, I have my own home, there's millions of others who are struggling far more.
    Average wages are going up by less than inflation, hence the strikes
    They're going up by more than house prices. That's a good start.
    I wouldn't be so sure there - round this neck of the woods the asking prices for first homes seem to be increasing.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,230

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell has a revenue of £300 billion. This is a much smaller profit ratio than Apple runs at.
    Yes, very fair point, similar to noneoftheabove's about a housing association.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Rubbish. The British problem is a total lack of self-awareness. Not humble bragging.

    Imagine if, for example, Fred Goodwin, Mark James, Simon Case, Amanda Spielman, Suella Braverman or Liz Truss could understand their own abilities and weaknesses properly, so they could get jobs on their intellectual and moral level. What a boon that would be to the nation.
    Americans don't mind failure and over ambition, as long as you try again.

    You are just reinforcing the article, accept your station in life and don't brag as the British stereotype.

    To be fair to Goodwin he did turn RBS from a small Scottish Bank to the biggest in the world at one point before the Crash
    He was the one who crashed it through over expansion.

    Your second sentence is even more nonsensical than your usual standard, which is saying something. It's so stupid - and rude, contrary to your claims about yourself - it's not even worth the dignity of dismissing.

    Like I say - self awareness is needed. Particularly among snobs who think they're brilliant because they went to the 'right' uni and got a degree despite being ignorant, and so rise effortlessly to the top where they sod everything up.

    They need to learn they are rubbish, rather than say they are brilliant. Humble bragging isn't the problem in our society.
    In your opinion virtually everybody is rubbish of course, apart from yourself!!
    You say the same to me when you lose an argument and you always blame it on you being the only Tory here, even when the disagreement has nothing whatsoever to do with politics.

    You are the classic of what @ydoethur describes. You have no self awareness whatsoever and can never accept you are ever wrong. You often for instance completely misunderstand posts and are unaware you have done so in particular when someone is being sarcastic or ironic.
    I am certainly not going to concede to you and Ydoethur as you are amongst the rudest and most pompous posters on here, even Charles was never as self regarding as you 2 often are.

    I did concede to Horse a point yesterday, as he is at least polite to me even if we differ politically
    What was that point you conceded yesterday?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    They are largely making profits abroad - and bringing the profits here. The items they are writing off against tax - such as North Sea decommissioning are things that various UK governments have explicitly stated are tax write-offs.
    The question was whether the profits are indefensible rather than complying with our tax law. Yes they comply with tax laws but that does not answer the question.
    And the answer is no, they're not indefensible...
    They are indefensible.
    It's just that from our point of view, they are also impregnable.
  • Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell derives around 5% of its revenue from its UK activities, I think ?
    Not much we can do about the rest of it.
    Indeed - they are doing the reverse of the "Citizens of nowhere" thing. They are bringing the money onshore.

    Those disliking the fact that they are paying low amounts of tax should say which write-offs for tax they want to stop.
    The BBC has got a lot better at reporting this and Miliband got into a bit of a pickle on R4 this morning demanding a “higher windfall tax” Higher than 75%? Others are higher! Yes, Norway and Nigeria at 78%….also demanding an end to North Sea Oil production - admitting we’d have to carry on importing….
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    "Labour hopes to ensure black-led firms access lucrative government contracts"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts

    Black-led businesses could be given more support to procure lucrative government contracts by a future Labour government as the party refines its offer to ethnic minority voters ahead of the next election.

    Labour’s race equality task force, led by Baroness Doreen Lawrence, hopes to ensure that black-led groups get the chance to access a fair share of the billions of pounds paid out each year through government contracts, according to The Voice newspaper.

    The Guardian understands that the task force, co-chaired by Labour party chair Anneliese Dodds, has also proposed introducing mandatory ethnicity pay gap reporting for firms with more than 250 staff, with the aim of closing the existing gap on salaries.

    Task force member and human rights lawyer Jacqueline Mckenzie told the newspaper: “There are no black firms that currently benefit at all [from government contracts], African heritage firms.”

    This kind of thing has proved very useful in the US. For promoting corruption.

    What you do is setup a company and appoint a person of the minority in question to "own" it. As part of the setup, the company in question actually does very little. It contracts all the work out to a network of other companies you own.

    The minority owned company at the top makes nearly nothing at all. But, as an upside, a member of the minority in question gets to be called CEO.
  • maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    They are largely making profits abroad - and bringing the profits here. The items they are writing off against tax - such as North Sea decommissioning are things that various UK governments have explicitly stated are tax write-offs.
    The question was whether the profits are indefensible rather than complying with our tax law. Yes they comply with tax laws but that does not answer the question.
    The profits are largely occurring in other countries. Should we make Shell send the money back?
    We should have a windfall levy on the gains made by energy giants from the Russian war, as was inevitable last spring and the government eventually and correctly u-turned on despite all the claims from the right that it would never work or raise any money.
  • maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell derives around 5% of its revenue from its UK activities, I think ?
    Not much we can do about the rest of it.
    Agreed. I guess I'm asking a question of principle, rather than practicality. FWIW I can see the other side of the argument - that there are more downsides than upsides to any attempt to rein in market forces - but on an intellectual level I recognise that can't hold forever, hence the question as to whether there is some limit.
    The only way to limit the size of the profits is to limit the size of the companies. It doesn't make any more tax for Governments. It just means the headline numbers are smaller for any individual company. But limiting the size of companies simply for window dressing rather than because of monopoly concerns (as happened with the original 7 sisters in the US) is a pointless exercise particularly when the underlying source of the profits in the UK (the oil and gas licences) are already entirely in the hands of the Government.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,394
    edited February 2023

    "Labour hopes to ensure black-led firms access lucrative government contracts"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts

    Black-led businesses could be given more support to procure lucrative government contracts by a future Labour government as the party refines its offer to ethnic minority voters ahead of the next election.

    Labour’s race equality task force, led by Baroness Doreen Lawrence, hopes to ensure that black-led groups get the chance to access a fair share of the billions of pounds paid out each year through government contracts, according to The Voice newspaper.

    The Guardian understands that the task force, co-chaired by Labour party chair Anneliese Dodds, has also proposed introducing mandatory ethnicity pay gap reporting for firms with more than 250 staff, with the aim of closing the existing gap on salaries.

    Task force member and human rights lawyer Jacqueline Mckenzie told the newspaper: “There are no black firms that currently benefit at all [from government contracts], African heritage firms.”

    Do they not get access or a fair crack at these contracts at the moment ?

    Are there any obstacles to them participating in the procurement process.

    On the face of it this seems fair.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,836
    From BBC:
    Bailey says it's not certain energy prices will fall - and even if they do, inflation being so high could still have an effect on other parts of life such as wages.

    The "tightness of the labour market" reinforces this risk, he says.

    The decision, therefore, to increase bank rates by 0.5% to 4% "reflects... uncertainties" in today's economy, Bailey adds.

    For once I almost agree with him but he does not acknowledge that inflation will fall rapidly without falls in fuel prices as last year's increases fall out of the comparison. Doesn't make the job of the government in sorting out the slew of public sector strikes any easier though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    They are largely making profits abroad - and bringing the profits here. The items they are writing off against tax - such as North Sea decommissioning are things that various UK governments have explicitly stated are tax write-offs.
    The question was whether the profits are indefensible rather than complying with our tax law. Yes they comply with tax laws but that does not answer the question.
    The profits are largely occurring in other countries. Should we make Shell send the money back?
    We should have a windfall levy on the gains made by energy giants from the Russian war, as was inevitable last spring and the government eventually and correctly u-turned on despite all the claims from the right that it would never work or raise any money.
    Is 75% tax too low for you - what level would you like?
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 319
    What is the collective wisdom of PBers as to the most likely date of the next general election?
    My question is prompted by the possibility of standing in North East Bedfordshire as an independent against the incumbent Conservative. Quite a number of people have suggested that I should do so. It might be interesting.
  • maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    They are largely making profits abroad - and bringing the profits here. The items they are writing off against tax - such as North Sea decommissioning are things that various UK governments have explicitly stated are tax write-offs.
    The question was whether the profits are indefensible rather than complying with our tax law. Yes they comply with tax laws but that does not answer the question.
    The profits are largely occurring in other countries. Should we make Shell send the money back?
    We should have a windfall levy on the gains made by energy giants from the Russian war, as was inevitable last spring and the government eventually and correctly u-turned on despite all the claims from the right that it would never work or raise any money.
    Is 75% tax too low for you - what level would you like?
    The 35% windfall tax feels fine. Much better than the no windfall tax supported by the pb cognoscenti who assured us it would raise no revenue.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    DavidL said:

    From BBC:
    Bailey says it's not certain energy prices will fall - and even if they do, inflation being so high could still have an effect on other parts of life such as wages.

    The "tightness of the labour market" reinforces this risk, he says.

    The decision, therefore, to increase bank rates by 0.5% to 4% "reflects... uncertainties" in today's economy, Bailey adds.

    For once I almost agree with him but he does not acknowledge that inflation will fall rapidly without falls in fuel prices as last year's increases fall out of the comparison. Doesn't make the job of the government in sorting out the slew of public sector strikes any easier though.

    Hmmmmm

    image

    https://www.naturalgasintel.com/natural-gas-prices-to-decline-through-2023-as-production-exports-to-rise-eia-says/
  • franklyn said:

    What is the collective wisdom of PBers as to the most likely date of the next general election?
    My question is prompted by the possibility of standing in North East Bedfordshire as an independent against the incumbent Conservative. Quite a number of people have suggested that I should do so. It might be interesting.

    Good luck!
  • maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    They are largely making profits abroad - and bringing the profits here. The items they are writing off against tax - such as North Sea decommissioning are things that various UK governments have explicitly stated are tax write-offs.
    The question was whether the profits are indefensible rather than complying with our tax law. Yes they comply with tax laws but that does not answer the question.
    And the answer is no, they're not indefensible. If profits are made in Qatar and brought to the UK that is better than profits going to Qatar, is it not?

    As a nation we would be far worse off if we drove away companies that make profits abroad and bring a slice of that home to boost our economy.
    Bart we're back to a discussion we had some months ago - that makes sense if you are primarily concerned with UK prosperity. I am more interested in the global effects e.g. what is the impact on Qatar of the instance you refer to?

    But I know we won't agree on this - I respect your position, which you have argued cogently in the past.
    Even globally the only reason that Shell are making a profit (which as someone else said isn't even that ridiculous when you consider it per capita globally) is because they're providing an extremely valuable service that we desperately need so have to pay for.

    Would we better off if Shell shut down operations overnight? No, we would be far, far, far worse off.

    Though these profits are likely to result in lower profits in future years anyway as the price signal is working its magic to lead people into investing in cleaner and greener alternatives that are now cheaper. I believe record amounts of solar panels are going up, and the electric car market is going gangbusters. My new home has a driveway and an electric car charger preinstalled so I'm currently looking into getting an electric car but the prices are high in part because so many other people want to do the same thing right now.

    So globally are the consequences of Shells profits bad? No, they're actually very good for the environment as it means people are actively seeking alternatives to Shell and their ilk now which is good for the planet.

    Take a step back and look big picture, not just at a headline number. The system is working
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    DJ41a said:

    Change coming soon in Kiev?

    The Torygraph, last night: "Mansion of ‘warlord oligarch’ who ‘helped Zelensky get elected’ raided by security agency".

    And the strapline: "Ihor Kolomoisky is credited with helping Volodymyr Zelensky to power, but the Ukrainian president denies being supported by the media tycoon". (Emphasis added.)

    He denies it? Does he, indeed.

    The Atlantic Council in 2019 asked a question about Zelensky : "Servant of the people or servant of the oligarchs?".

    Only of the people, the people. Always the people. Am I getting this right?

    It's interesting that in 2023 the Torygraph are now calling Kolomoisky a "warlord". Guess what war activity this refers to. Kolomoisky did indeed fund paramilitary forces to fight against the Donetsk and Luhansk republics after they declared independence from Ukraine after referendums in 2014. See for example this piece, which refers to Kolomoisky's "private army". He funded the neo-Nazi Azov battalion (before they became regularised as a regiment) and others.

    Kolomoisky hasn't been referred to in western media as a "warlord" much recently, though, especially since 2022. And now he's getting this richly-deserved label once again.

    That means something.

    How long has his little man Zelensky got?

    How long can he survive with his "I wasn't backed by Kolomoisky" line, when everyone knows he was?

    Could "F*** the territories, f*** Kolomoisky, f*** Zelensky, f*** the EU and US" be an idea of growing appeal in Ukraine, a country that has lost maybe 100000 of its young men to senseless slaughter in the drive to raise the yellow and blue flag again over every piece of all six territories?



    Thanks for the mention as one the 'button likers'.

    So what's your answer then? Zelensky resigns? Would that mean Ukraine stops fighting?
    And if losing 100,000 men is senseless, what is losing 200,000 to Russia? More or less senseless?

    Ukraine is corrupt, but has been moving significantly in the right direction these last ten years. Indeed, I suspect its BECAUSE its been moving in the right direction that has been at least partially responsible for Russia deciding to invade. Putin doesn't want a successful country, especially a successful former Soviet republic, on its long border (it can barely tolerate the Baltics but they're in NATO so that's a problem). People might leave for a better life.

    So yes. Ukraine is corrupt, but Russia is far, far worse, and far more evil. There is NO justification to attack another country. None. No 'spheres of influence' or 'BUT Ukraine is really a NATO/US/Falkland Islands puppet.... we must liberate it' [1] bollocks.

    [1] If Russia truly believed Ukraine was a US puppet, the best way to 'sort' that out would be a coup and then install a local politician who wouldn't be a puppet. The only problem with that idea is that Ukraine isn't a puppet, nor Zelensky and there are virtually no local politicians who'd serve even as an independent because they know the current government of Ukraine is the democratically elected one.
    According to the Ukrainian people I know, Zelensky is staggeringly popular in Ukraine and would win any election in a landslide.

    Which seems to be borne out here -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Ukrainian_presidential_election
  • Why are people jumping on @HYUFD again?

    He did concede to me yesterday re A-Level results for required for Russell Group unis which was gracious.
  • 30 point Labour lead with the incoming recession
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell derives around 5% of its revenue from its UK activities, I think ?
    Not much we can do about the rest of it.
    Agreed. I guess I'm asking a question of principle, rather than practicality. FWIW I can see the other side of the argument - that there are more downsides than upsides to any attempt to rein in market forces - but on an intellectual level I recognise that can't hold forever, hence the question as to whether there is some limit.
    The only way to limit the size of the profits is to limit the size of the companies. It doesn't make any more tax for Governments. It just means the headline numbers are smaller for any individual company. But limiting the size of companies simply for window dressing rather than because of monopoly concerns (as happened with the original 7 sisters in the US) is a pointless exercise particularly when the underlying source of the profits in the UK (the oil and gas licences) are already entirely in the hands of the Government.
    There is one other route to limiting profits. Get some of those Hollywood accountants involved :smile:
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    30 point Labour lead with the incoming recession

    There will not be a recession
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    They are largely making profits abroad - and bringing the profits here. The items they are writing off against tax - such as North Sea decommissioning are things that various UK governments have explicitly stated are tax write-offs.
    The question was whether the profits are indefensible rather than complying with our tax law. Yes they comply with tax laws but that does not answer the question.
    The profits are largely occurring in other countries. Should we make Shell send the money back?
    We should have a windfall levy on the gains made by energy giants from the Russian war, as was inevitable last spring and the government eventually and correctly u-turned on despite all the claims from the right that it would never work or raise any money.
    Well the main effect so far has been to seriously damage future investment in the UK oil and gas sector. Now obviously if you are of the mindset that Hydrocarbons are evil and unnecessary then that would be considered a good thing. But if you are interested in building energy security, a long term revenue stream for the Government and a thriving petrochemical sector (remember aspirin, lubricants and lots of other vital products) then it is an extremely bad thing.
    Said brilliantly so I didn't have to.
  • DavidL said:

    4% interest rate confirmed

    I think that is the BoE finally caught up with the surge in inflation. There will probably be another couple of 0.25% increases but my guess is that is the heavy lifting done. These interest rate increases were, of course, the main reason that the IMF were forecasting lower growth in the UK than elsewhere.
    Yes indeed interest rates likely to peak at 4.5% Spring 2023 and stay around there for rest of 2023.

    I am now projecting CPI 4% to 5% Dec 2023. Bank may leave rates at around 4% for a while to try to squeeze CPI towards 2% in 2024 although this level of CPI may be difficult to achieve.
    Good. A dose of healthy inflation is a good thing, allowing sticky prices to adjust without going negative, as opposed to rampant inflation or no inflation/deflation.

    That's the problem we've had in recent years has been rampant inflation in parts of the economy, but virtually-zero CPI, which has completely distorted the economy.

    A few years of moderate CPI inflation around the 4-5% mark, and declining house prices, will do wonders for rebalancing the economy and making life more affordable for those working for a living rather than allowing rentiers to extract all the wealth of the economy.
    Inflation is bad as it erodes the value of pay, pensions and savings

    Stable prices are good 👍
    But we have we never had stable prices. The only question is where the inflation was going - across all of the economy or only a part of it. If a house was worth the same in real terms today as it was in 1997 then maybe you could say we had relatively stable inflatio , but we have had rampant inflation consistently far, far, far higher than 4%

    Which yes eroded pay which is why house price to earnings ratios that were once 3 are now 7+ ... pay has halved versus prices in real terms. That's terrible.

    We need balanced moderate inflation not rampant inflation. We need to reverse the damage of the past two decades of rampant inflation too.
    Hopefully we are moving to an era of more realistic 'real' interest rates which should help keep house prices stable/ only increasing gradually over the long term.

    Property ownership should be to live in and provide security for the family, not as an investment 👍
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    DavidL said:

    From BBC:
    Bailey says it's not certain energy prices will fall - and even if they do, inflation being so high could still have an effect on other parts of life such as wages.

    The "tightness of the labour market" reinforces this risk, he says.

    The decision, therefore, to increase bank rates by 0.5% to 4% "reflects... uncertainties" in today's economy, Bailey adds.

    For once I almost agree with him but he does not acknowledge that inflation will fall rapidly without falls in fuel prices as last year's increases fall out of the comparison. Doesn't make the job of the government in sorting out the slew of public sector strikes any easier though.

    Not true. Once inflation is 4% then 4.5 % is an inflation busting pay rise the government can trumpet “inflation busting pay rise for everyone” is it not, and without costing 10% of money if settled now AND with half the impact of any on baking in double digit inflation.

    The Torys have war gamed this, the narrative comes their way over the next 18 months, rather than more difficult it actually gets better and easier for them, and hops in their lap purring.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,230

    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell derives around 5% of its revenue from its UK activities, I think ?
    Not much we can do about the rest of it.
    Agreed. I guess I'm asking a question of principle, rather than practicality. FWIW I can see the other side of the argument - that there are more downsides than upsides to any attempt to rein in market forces - but on an intellectual level I recognise that can't hold forever, hence the question as to whether there is some limit.
    The only way to limit the size of the profits is to limit the size of the companies. It doesn't make any more tax for Governments. It just means the headline numbers are smaller for any individual company. But limiting the size of companies simply for window dressing rather than because of monopoly concerns (as happened with the original 7 sisters in the US) is a pointless exercise particularly when the underlying source of the profits in the UK (the oil and gas licences) are already entirely in the hands of the Government.
    Thanks for all the replies, many focused on the practical problems of taxing foreign profits. I agree that this is not practical, nor necessarily desirable. As a side note I'm suspicious of the arguments that focus on benefits to the UK rather than considering the global impact, but can see why those arguments are made.

    Richard - your point gets at the heart of what I'm trying ro ask, thanks. For me, a 10% profit on revenues of $300bn is potentially at a damaging scale even if it isn't price gouging or excessive in terms of revenue/profit ratio (I agree it isn't on the same scale as Apple).

    It seems to me that the absolute value of the profit and the revenue percentage are both relevant, and an absolute value of £30bn points towards some form of market failure.

    On top of that, I am concerned about the power it hands to a single corporation to dictate the market it is operating within.

    Without getting into practicalities, I would dispute on principle that limiting the size of companies is pointless unless responding to monopoly concerns, because I think soing so would also limit corporate power to distort markets. However, I am not arguing that this is feasible in the current case, I really am just interested in the principle.

    The point about licences in the UK is important, agreed.
  • eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    4% interest rate confirmed

    I think that is the BoE finally caught up with the surge in inflation. There will probably be another couple of 0.25% increases but my guess is that is the heavy lifting done. These interest rate increases were, of course, the main reason that the IMF were forecasting lower growth in the UK than elsewhere.
    Yes indeed interest rates likely to peak at 4.5% Spring 2023 and stay around there for rest of 2023.

    I am now projecting CPI 4% to 5% Dec 2023. Bank may leave rates at around 4% for a while to try to squeeze CPI towards 2% in 2024 although this level of CPI may be difficult to achieve.
    Good. A dose of healthy inflation is a good thing, allowing sticky prices to adjust without going negative, as opposed to rampant inflation or no inflation/deflation.

    That's the problem we've had in recent years has been rampant inflation in parts of the economy, but virtually-zero CPI, which has completely distorted the economy.

    A few years of moderate CPI inflation around the 4-5% mark, and declining house prices, will do wonders for rebalancing the economy and making life more affordable for those working for a living rather than allowing rentiers to extract all the wealth of the economy.
    Those with a mortgage however have to make higher mortgage repayments every time rates rise if not on a fixed rate
    No shit Sherlock.

    Though if there's a healthy dose of inflation then wages should be going up too, while the price of the property purchase was locked in years ago while wages were lower, so even then a higher percentage of a lower (in real terms) number while uncomfortable is not the end of the world.

    Better than people seeing house prices being unaffordable, rent as a result shooting up in real terms further and further consistently while houses are out of reach and wages are stagnant as has happened since the early New Labour years onwards.

    Speaking as someone who completed his house purchase in December, I really hope I bought at the very peak of the market and that sort of insane house price multiple is never seen again. I don't care if I "lose out" by seeing the value of my property fall in real terms, even if it leads to negative equity, I have my own home, there's millions of others who are struggling far more.
    Average wages are going up by less than inflation, hence the strikes
    They're going up by more than house prices. That's a good start.
    I wouldn't be so sure there - round this neck of the woods the asking prices for first homes seem to be increasing.
    Nationwide at least house prices have fallen for the fifth month in a row, long may it continue, and are now annually up by 2.9% which is less than annual wage inflation.

    It's a baby step, a much bigger fall in house prices and a much bigger rise in wages, sustained for years will be needed to reverse the damage of the past couple of decades of rampant inflation.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,836

    DavidL said:

    From BBC:
    Bailey says it's not certain energy prices will fall - and even if they do, inflation being so high could still have an effect on other parts of life such as wages.

    The "tightness of the labour market" reinforces this risk, he says.

    The decision, therefore, to increase bank rates by 0.5% to 4% "reflects... uncertainties" in today's economy, Bailey adds.

    For once I almost agree with him but he does not acknowledge that inflation will fall rapidly without falls in fuel prices as last year's increases fall out of the comparison. Doesn't make the job of the government in sorting out the slew of public sector strikes any easier though.

    Hmmmmm

    image

    https://www.naturalgasintel.com/natural-gas-prices-to-decline-through-2023-as-production-exports-to-rise-eia-says/
    So the most likely outcome is that prices will be pretty stable, removing it from the inflation index as a factor. With considerable risks in either direction, of course.
    And other figures are available: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cxwdwz5d8gxt/natural-gas Have a look at the price over the last 12 months. It is down. And not even a quarter of the peak price.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    DavidL said:

    4% interest rate confirmed

    I think that is the BoE finally caught up with the surge in inflation. There will probably be another couple of 0.25% increases but my guess is that is the heavy lifting done. These interest rate increases were, of course, the main reason that the IMF were forecasting lower growth in the UK than elsewhere.
    Yes indeed interest rates likely to peak at 4.5% Spring 2023 and stay around there for rest of 2023.

    I am now projecting CPI 4% to 5% Dec 2023. Bank may leave rates at around 4% for a while to try to squeeze CPI towards 2% in 2024 although this level of CPI may be difficult to achieve.
    As if life wasn’t bleak enough already. How depressing.
    Savers generally, who fund the mortgages and credit card debts of the rest of the population have had zero interest rates for the past 10m years and more. it's well time that they got something for their money.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    People pondering the huge profits Shell is making need to consider the size of the company. It's 5 times the size of Tesco, 10 x AstraZeneca, 15 x BAE Systems, over 7 x Vodafone, and about 14 x Barclays. It's a truly enormous company.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,230

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    They are largely making profits abroad - and bringing the profits here. The items they are writing off against tax - such as North Sea decommissioning are things that various UK governments have explicitly stated are tax write-offs.
    The question was whether the profits are indefensible rather than complying with our tax law. Yes they comply with tax laws but that does not answer the question.
    And the answer is no, they're not indefensible. If profits are made in Qatar and brought to the UK that is better than profits going to Qatar, is it not?

    As a nation we would be far worse off if we drove away companies that make profits abroad and bring a slice of that home to boost our economy.
    Bart we're back to a discussion we had some months ago - that makes sense if you are primarily concerned with UK prosperity. I am more interested in the global effects e.g. what is the impact on Qatar of the instance you refer to?

    But I know we won't agree on this - I respect your position, which you have argued cogently in the past.
    Even globally the only reason that Shell are making a profit (which as someone else said isn't even that ridiculous when you consider it per capita globally) is because they're providing an extremely valuable service that we desperately need so have to pay for.

    Would we better off if Shell shut down operations overnight? No, we would be far, far, far worse off.

    Though these profits are likely to result in lower profits in future years anyway as the price signal is working its magic to lead people into investing in cleaner and greener alternatives that are now cheaper. I believe record amounts of solar panels are going up, and the electric car market is going gangbusters. My new home has a driveway and an electric car charger preinstalled so I'm currently looking into getting an electric car but the prices are high in part because so many other people want to do the same thing right now.

    So globally are the consequences of Shells profits bad? No, they're actually very good for the environment as it means people are actively seeking alternatives to Shell and their ilk now which is good for the planet.

    Take a step back and look big picture, not just at a headline number. The system is working
    Lots of valuable points here, thanks.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    "Labour hopes to ensure black-led firms access lucrative government contracts"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts

    Black-led businesses could be given more support to procure lucrative government contracts by a future Labour government as the party refines its offer to ethnic minority voters ahead of the next election.

    Labour’s race equality task force, led by Baroness Doreen Lawrence, hopes to ensure that black-led groups get the chance to access a fair share of the billions of pounds paid out each year through government contracts, according to The Voice newspaper.

    The Guardian understands that the task force, co-chaired by Labour party chair Anneliese Dodds, has also proposed introducing mandatory ethnicity pay gap reporting for firms with more than 250 staff, with the aim of closing the existing gap on salaries.

    Task force member and human rights lawyer Jacqueline Mckenzie told the newspaper: “There are no black firms that currently benefit at all [from government contracts], African heritage firms.”

    What could possibly go wrong I wonder.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,230

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I think I finally get the strategy of the Russian trolls on here over the past year or so.

    One day, in the future, we will all be Russian trolls for 15 minutes.

    If we can't trust that anyone is who they say they are, then maybe the Russians will win the info war?

    (Though I suppose one could argue Leon has been doing their job for them...)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,166
    It's a day with D in it so we need to talk about trans :wink: .

    Interesting piece arguing that the Scottish Gov attempt to give exactly the same rights to for want to Gender Recognition by self-ID as the current process has undermined protection for trans people. Quite an interesting analogy with disability and Blue Badges:


    Let me offer an analogy that might be helpful to Sturgeon: blue badges are issued to disabled people who need extra flexibility in where they can park their car. There are processes that applicants must follow to get a blue badge. They cost £10 for starters – more expensive than a GRC, but let’s not dwell on that – and the local council conducts an assessment to decide if you are eligible.

    Now let’s say that some progressive politicians decide those processes are unnecessary bureaucracy, or even demeaning to disabled people. They decide instead to offer blue badges to anyone who chooses to self-identify as disabled. The incentive to do so is obvious, as is the inevitable chaos. Traffic would snarl to a halt as those who wanted to park more easily filled out the paperwork to be allowed to do so.

    Who suffers? Ultimately, everyone – parking is usually restricted for good reason – but specifically those who needed the extra flexibility. The privilege that they required is brought into disrepute by those who merely wanted it. Sturgeon has done something similar to trans rights.


    I qualify as double disabled whenever campaigners want to big up the numbers in Parliament to make the Government do what they want - I wear glasses all the time and I have Type I diabetes. I quite like the prospect of getting a Blue Badge by self-ID, but the processes are (correctly) different and are an evaluation based on context, rather than the process of qualifying to be included in the "disabled" category for some activists.

    Hmmm.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeons-bungled-gender-crusade-has-undermined-trans-rights/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    Who can resist a free ROD



  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,984
    edited February 2023

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    That's true.

    It's the fact that you think like a Russia troll, that is concerning.

    But we live in a free society so you, Dura, McClusky, Corbyn and the rest of your fellow travellers are free to think as you do. It's part of what makes us better than the Russians.
  • Luckyguy is the original Russian troll.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    maxh said:

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.


    If we can't trust that anyone is who they say they are….
    On PB? Surely not….
  • maxh said:

    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell derives around 5% of its revenue from its UK activities, I think ?
    Not much we can do about the rest of it.
    Agreed. I guess I'm asking a question of principle, rather than practicality. FWIW I can see the other side of the argument - that there are more downsides than upsides to any attempt to rein in market forces - but on an intellectual level I recognise that can't hold forever, hence the question as to whether there is some limit.
    The only way to limit the size of the profits is to limit the size of the companies. It doesn't make any more tax for Governments. It just means the headline numbers are smaller for any individual company. But limiting the size of companies simply for window dressing rather than because of monopoly concerns (as happened with the original 7 sisters in the US) is a pointless exercise particularly when the underlying source of the profits in the UK (the oil and gas licences) are already entirely in the hands of the Government.
    Thanks for all the replies, many focused on the practical problems of taxing foreign profits. I agree that this is not practical, nor necessarily desirable. As a side note I'm suspicious of the arguments that focus on benefits to the UK rather than considering the global impact, but can see why those arguments are made.

    Richard - your point gets at the heart of what I'm trying ro ask, thanks. For me, a 10% profit on revenues of $300bn is potentially at a damaging scale even if it isn't price gouging or excessive in terms of revenue/profit ratio (I agree it isn't on the same scale as Apple).

    It seems to me that the absolute value of the profit and the revenue percentage are both relevant, and an absolute value of £30bn points towards some form of market failure.

    On top of that, I am concerned about the power it hands to a single corporation to dictate the market it is operating within.

    Without getting into practicalities, I would dispute on principle that limiting the size of companies is pointless unless responding to monopoly concerns, because I think doing so would also limit corporate power to distort markets. However, I am not arguing that this is feasible in the current case, I really am just interested in the principle.

    The point about licences in the UK is important, agreed.
    On the topic of a single corporation dictating the market, it can't and it doesn't. At a global scale what Shell or BP do is nothing when the control of prices rests with OPEC. Put crudely, if you want to gain any real control of oil and gas production then take over the Middle East and break the cartel.

    At a local level in the UK Shell are a fairly minor player amongst dozens of oil and gas companies. The danger is that it is those other players who are being driven to end investment in the UK as a result of the windfall taxes. Not least because the Government has decided that they will not end the windfall tax even if the oil price collapses so the companies, who have to think in terms of 5 or 10 years ahead for investments, have decided their money will be better spent elsewhere.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    Re the bauiting of Hyufd et al - that comment is a perfect example - unnecessary.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,166
    maxh said:

    MattW said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Is it from "The Economy" that is subject to tax in the UK? Or is it a worldwide number?

    I note that the Guardian does not tell us, nor do they explain how much tax is paid already.

    I'd say they are trying to maintain the outrage, complete with rantaquotes from Ed Davey and Greenpeace.

    Sorry, but I'd say that is the permatrolling type of commentary, as when for example Professor Murphy was frothing away years ago about how banks were avoiding tax, when the profit had been absorbed by losses from previous years.
    Thanks for the reply. Are you saying, then, that any amount of profit is acceptable if appropriate taxes are paid? That's my question really, not a question about the quality of the Guardian's reporting.

    In my view there is a (pretty high) limit to levels of acceptable profit, not least because profits of that size suggest a market that is captured in an unhealthy way. I think this might be an example of that limit being breached, regardless of where the profit has been garnered globally.
    OK, so let's agree that the quality of Guardian news reporting is atrocious :smile: .

    I think the identification of profits to which taxes can be applied is perhaps a missing element of any debate, as this is an outrage bus.

    I think part of the context wrt Shell is that UK profits are already taxed at a high rate. The last number I saw was quite a bit higher than normal Corp. Tax due to an increased tax for oil companies, and then a windfall tax on top of that.

    I can see the argument for a tax on windfall gains unrelated to the basic business operation - by analogy we give support to eg Renewables to prime the pump. But it needs to be very careful indeed - if we want to limit profit margins then what do we do with eg perfume companies, or software companies?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434
    maxh said:

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I think I finally get the strategy of the Russian trolls on here over the past year or so.

    One day, in the future, we will all be Russian trolls for 15 minutes.

    If we can't trust that anyone is who they say they are, then maybe the Russians will win the info war?

    (Though I suppose one could argue Leon has been doing their job for them...)
    That's why it's best to have the strength of character to know what you actually believe and therefore which posts you want to 'applaud'. DJ14 is mostly a daft Corbynite lefty with an obsession with the size of King Charles' fingers. I disagree with the vast majority of what he writes, but when I agree, I'm not going to refrain from showing it because some other silly prick might have an issue.

    The only poster (bar the two-post antivax trolls) who has actually targeted PB like a troll is imo ScottP, because he wasn't engaging in actual discussion, he was carpet-bombing the place in copypasted Tweets with no quality control or added commentary, in a seeming attempt to overwhelm opposing ideas rather than engage with them. I am happy to say he does this less now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    edited February 2023
    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell derives around 5% of its revenue from its UK activities, I think ?
    Not much we can do about the rest of it.
    Agreed. I guess I'm asking a question of principle, rather than practicality. FWIW I can see the other side of the argument - that there are more downsides than upsides to any attempt to rein in market forces - but on an intellectual level I recognise that can't hold forever, hence the question as to whether there is some limit.
    The only way to limit the size of the profits is to limit the size of the companies. It doesn't make any more tax for Governments. It just means the headline numbers are smaller for any individual company. But limiting the size of companies simply for window dressing rather than because of monopoly concerns (as happened with the original 7 sisters in the US) is a pointless exercise particularly when the underlying source of the profits in the UK (the oil and gas licences) are already entirely in the hands of the Government.
    Thanks for all the replies, many focused on the practical problems of taxing foreign profits. I agree that this is not practical, nor necessarily desirable. As a side note I'm suspicious of the arguments that focus on benefits to the UK rather than considering the global impact, but can see why those arguments are made.

    Richard - your point gets at the heart of what I'm trying ro ask, thanks. For me, a 10% profit on revenues of $300bn is potentially at a damaging scale even if it isn't price gouging or excessive in terms of revenue/profit ratio (I agree it isn't on the same scale as Apple).

    It seems to me that the absolute value of the profit and the revenue percentage are both relevant, and an absolute value of £30bn points towards some form of market failure.

    On top of that, I am concerned about the power it hands to a single corporation to dictate the market it is operating within.

    Without getting into practicalities, I would dispute on principle that limiting the size of companies is pointless unless responding to monopoly concerns, because I think soing so would also limit corporate power to distort markets. However, I am not arguing that this is feasible in the current case, I really am just interested in the principle.

    The point about licences in the UK is important, agreed.
    If you try and restrict the size of the profit in absolute terms then you are saying that you want smaller companies - in a volatile business like oil & gas, a smaller margin means that the good times don't payback for the bad times.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,230

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell derives around 5% of its revenue from its UK activities, I think ?
    Not much we can do about the rest of it.
    Agreed. I guess I'm asking a question of principle, rather than practicality. FWIW I can see the other side of the argument - that there are more downsides than upsides to any attempt to rein in market forces - but on an intellectual level I recognise that can't hold forever, hence the question as to whether there is some limit.
    The only way to limit the size of the profits is to limit the size of the companies. It doesn't make any more tax for Governments. It just means the headline numbers are smaller for any individual company. But limiting the size of companies simply for window dressing rather than because of monopoly concerns (as happened with the original 7 sisters in the US) is a pointless exercise particularly when the underlying source of the profits in the UK (the oil and gas licences) are already entirely in the hands of the Government.
    Thanks for all the replies, many focused on the practical problems of taxing foreign profits. I agree that this is not practical, nor necessarily desirable. As a side note I'm suspicious of the arguments that focus on benefits to the UK rather than considering the global impact, but can see why those arguments are made.

    Richard - your point gets at the heart of what I'm trying ro ask, thanks. For me, a 10% profit on revenues of $300bn is potentially at a damaging scale even if it isn't price gouging or excessive in terms of revenue/profit ratio (I agree it isn't on the same scale as Apple).

    It seems to me that the absolute value of the profit and the revenue percentage are both relevant, and an absolute value of £30bn points towards some form of market failure.

    On top of that, I am concerned about the power it hands to a single corporation to dictate the market it is operating within.

    Without getting into practicalities, I would dispute on principle that limiting the size of companies is pointless unless responding to monopoly concerns, because I think doing so would also limit corporate power to distort markets. However, I am not arguing that this is feasible in the current case, I really am just interested in the principle.

    The point about licences in the UK is important, agreed.
    On the topic of a single corporation dictating the market, it can't and it doesn't. At a global scale what Shell or BP do is nothing when the control of prices rests with OPEC. Put crudely, if you want to gain any real control of oil and gas production then take over the Middle East and break the cartel.

    At a local level in the UK Shell are a fairly minor player amongst dozens of oil and gas companies. The danger is that it is those other players who are being driven to end investment in the UK as a result of the windfall taxes. Not least because the Government has decided that they will not end the windfall tax even if the oil price collapses so the companies, who have to think in terms of 5 or 10 years ahead for investments, have decided their money will be better spent elsewhere.
    On the global bit, I see your point, particularly about OPEC, and find myself more comfortable with the profits as a result. Thanks for the replies.

    I'm already with you on the local level, at least to the extent that Shell isn't distorting markets within UK.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    That's true.

    It's the fact that you think like a Russia troll, that is concerning.

    But we live in a free society so you, Dura, McClusky, Corbyn and the rest of your fellow travellers are free to think as you do. It's part of what makes us better than the Russians.
    I think that's a little unfair to Dura_Ace, who I would never accuse of being a Russian troll. If anything, he has a better view into the Russian mindset than any of us. I may disagree with him on some things, but he appears genuine.
  • MattW said:

    maxh said:

    MattW said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Is it from "The Economy" that is subject to tax in the UK? Or is it a worldwide number?

    I note that the Guardian does not tell us, nor do they explain how much tax is paid already.

    I'd say they are trying to maintain the outrage, complete with rantaquotes from Ed Davey and Greenpeace.

    Sorry, but I'd say that is the permatrolling type of commentary, as when for example Professor Murphy was frothing away years ago about how banks were avoiding tax, when the profit had been absorbed by losses from previous years.
    Thanks for the reply. Are you saying, then, that any amount of profit is acceptable if appropriate taxes are paid? That's my question really, not a question about the quality of the Guardian's reporting.

    In my view there is a (pretty high) limit to levels of acceptable profit, not least because profits of that size suggest a market that is captured in an unhealthy way. I think this might be an example of that limit being breached, regardless of where the profit has been garnered globally.
    OK, so let's agree that the quality of Guardian news reporting is atrocious :smile: .

    I think the identification of profits to which taxes can be applied is perhaps a missing element of any debate, as this is an outrage bus.

    I think part of the context wrt Shell is that UK profits are already taxed at a high rate. The last number I saw was quite a bit higher than normal Corp. Tax due to an increased tax for oil companies, and then a windfall tax on top of that.

    I can see the argument for a tax on windfall gains unrelated to the basic business operation - by analogy we give support to eg Renewables to prime the pump. But it needs to be very careful indeed - if we want to limit profit margins then what do we do with eg perfume companies, or software companies?
    Yep. For reference Oil and gas companies pay 40% corporation tax as standard and then the 35% Windfall tax on top of that. Hence the 75%.
  • maxh said:

    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell derives around 5% of its revenue from its UK activities, I think ?
    Not much we can do about the rest of it.
    Agreed. I guess I'm asking a question of principle, rather than practicality. FWIW I can see the other side of the argument - that there are more downsides than upsides to any attempt to rein in market forces - but on an intellectual level I recognise that can't hold forever, hence the question as to whether there is some limit.
    The only way to limit the size of the profits is to limit the size of the companies. It doesn't make any more tax for Governments. It just means the headline numbers are smaller for any individual company. But limiting the size of companies simply for window dressing rather than because of monopoly concerns (as happened with the original 7 sisters in the US) is a pointless exercise particularly when the underlying source of the profits in the UK (the oil and gas licences) are already entirely in the hands of the Government.
    Thanks for all the replies, many focused on the practical problems of taxing foreign profits. I agree that this is not practical, nor necessarily desirable. As a side note I'm suspicious of the arguments that focus on benefits to the UK rather than considering the global impact, but can see why those arguments are made.

    Richard - your point gets at the heart of what I'm trying ro ask, thanks. For me, a 10% profit on revenues of $300bn is potentially at a damaging scale even if it isn't price gouging or excessive in terms of revenue/profit ratio (I agree it isn't on the same scale as Apple).

    It seems to me that the absolute value of the profit and the revenue percentage are both relevant, and an absolute value of £30bn points towards some form of market failure.

    On top of that, I am concerned about the power it hands to a single corporation to dictate the market it is operating within.

    Without getting into practicalities, I would dispute on principle that limiting the size of companies is pointless unless responding to monopoly concerns, because I think soing so would also limit corporate power to distort markets. However, I am not arguing that this is feasible in the current case, I really am just interested in the principle.

    The point about licences in the UK is important, agreed.
    If you try and restrict the size of the profit in absolute terms then you are saying that you want smaller companies - in a volatile business like oil & gas, a smaller margin means that the good times don't payback for the bad times.
    Lots of smaller companies would be better for me though as they would all need an Operations Geologist so I would have lots of work :)
  • Why are people jumping on @HYUFD again?

    He did concede to me yesterday re A-Level results for required for Russell Group unis which was gracious.

    HYUFD is always or at least almost always polite and gracious to other posters, even if the points he makes can be interpreted as offensive at times (and indeed I have taken offence at them). I think that's an important distinction. I'm sure it is possible for us to disagree with each other while not resorting to personal unpleasantness.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,984
    edited February 2023

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    That's true.

    It's the fact that you think like a Russia troll, that is concerning.

    But we live in a free society so you, Dura, McClusky, Corbyn and the rest of your fellow travellers are free to think as you do. It's part of what makes us better than the Russians.
    I think that's a little unfair to Dura_Ace, who I would never accuse of being a Russian troll. If anything, he has a better view into the Russian mindset than any of us. I may disagree with him on some things, but he appears genuine.
    I wouldn't accuse him of being a Russian troll, I would instead suggest he is what in the Cold War would have been called a "useful idiot". He seems to truly swallow, believe and regurgitate the bullshit that the Russian trolls spout.

    Though for Dura it could just be a contrarian desire to be different.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434
    edited February 2023

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    That's true.

    It's the fact that you think like a Russia troll, that is concerning.

    But we live in a free society so you, Dura, McClusky, Corbyn and the rest of your fellow travellers are free to think as you do. It's part of what makes us better than the Russians.
    I'm sorry you find someone thinking differently to you 'concerning'. But thank you so very kindly for endorsing my right to free thought.

    If you do get a break from pondering how much better we are than the Russians, perhaps you can tell me what's actually 'Russian' or troll-like about the post I liked? It's a post that says Sunak is on a shoogly peg, and it's odd that he has not appointed a new Tory party chairman. Well, he is, and it is. It's totally relevant to PB, it's totally on topic, so where's your apparent issue?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,359

    "Labour hopes to ensure black-led firms access lucrative government contracts"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts

    Black-led businesses could be given more support to procure lucrative government contracts by a future Labour government as the party refines its offer to ethnic minority voters ahead of the next election.

    Labour’s race equality task force, led by Baroness Doreen Lawrence, hopes to ensure that black-led groups get the chance to access a fair share of the billions of pounds paid out each year through government contracts, according to The Voice newspaper.

    The Guardian understands that the task force, co-chaired by Labour party chair Anneliese Dodds, has also proposed introducing mandatory ethnicity pay gap reporting for firms with more than 250 staff, with the aim of closing the existing gap on salaries.

    Task force member and human rights lawyer Jacqueline Mckenzie told the newspaper: “There are no black firms that currently benefit at all [from government contracts], African heritage
    firms.”

    That sounds like a terrible idea. Contracts should be awarded on the basis of price and quality.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    Fair enough - good response.

    You like what you believe in; your views happen to coincide with Russian trolls but so be it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell derives around 5% of its revenue from its UK activities, I think ?
    Not much we can do about the rest of it.
    Agreed. I guess I'm asking a question of principle, rather than practicality. FWIW I can see the other side of the argument - that there are more downsides than upsides to any attempt to rein in market forces - but on an intellectual level I recognise that can't hold forever, hence the question as to whether there is some limit.
    The only way to limit the size of the profits is to limit the size of the companies. It doesn't make any more tax for Governments. It just means the headline numbers are smaller for any individual company. But limiting the size of companies simply for window dressing rather than because of monopoly concerns (as happened with the original 7 sisters in the US) is a pointless exercise particularly when the underlying source of the profits in the UK (the oil and gas licences) are already entirely in the hands of the Government.
    Thanks for all the replies, many focused on the practical problems of taxing foreign profits. I agree that this is not practical, nor necessarily desirable. As a side note I'm suspicious of the arguments that focus on benefits to the UK rather than considering the global impact, but can see why those arguments are made.

    Richard - your point gets at the heart of what I'm trying ro ask, thanks. For me, a 10% profit on revenues of $300bn is potentially at a damaging scale even if it isn't price gouging or excessive in terms of revenue/profit ratio (I agree it isn't on the same scale as Apple).

    It seems to me that the absolute value of the profit and the revenue percentage are both relevant, and an absolute value of £30bn points towards some form of market failure.

    On top of that, I am concerned about the power it hands to a single corporation to dictate the market it is operating within.

    Without getting into practicalities, I would dispute on principle that limiting the size of companies is pointless unless responding to monopoly concerns, because I think soing so would also limit corporate power to distort markets. However, I am not arguing that this is feasible in the current case, I really am just interested in the principle.

    The point about licences in the UK is important, agreed.
    If you try and restrict the size of the profit in absolute terms then you are saying that you want smaller companies - in a volatile business like oil & gas, a smaller margin means that the good times don't payback for the bad times.
    Lots of smaller companies would be better for me though as they would all need an Operations Geologist so I would have lots of work :)
    They would need to operate at higher margins, though, being smaller.

    So if you divided Shell back into the 90 odd country companies it consists of, it would, as a group of companies make more profit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    I’m in a super posh new Bangkok restaurant having a FREE zillion course tasting nu-nordic menu with paired wines helmed by a 3 star chef


    And my dining partner has just puked up the first course - a poached oyster with scarlet caviar and has fled the building

    Wtf do I do? It’s all free. I can’t eat 98 courses and drink 428 wines. But I can’t offend them

    True story. Is this the most first world of first world problems??





  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,230
    MattW said:

    maxh said:

    MattW said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Is it from "The Economy" that is subject to tax in the UK? Or is it a worldwide number?

    I note that the Guardian does not tell us, nor do they explain how much tax is paid already.

    I'd say they are trying to maintain the outrage, complete with rantaquotes from Ed Davey and Greenpeace.

    Sorry, but I'd say that is the permatrolling type of commentary, as when for example Professor Murphy was frothing away years ago about how banks were avoiding tax, when the profit had been absorbed by losses from previous years.
    Thanks for the reply. Are you saying, then, that any amount of profit is acceptable if appropriate taxes are paid? That's my question really, not a question about the quality of the Guardian's reporting.

    In my view there is a (pretty high) limit to levels of acceptable profit, not least because profits of that size suggest a market that is captured in an unhealthy way. I think this might be an example of that limit being breached, regardless of where the profit has been garnered globally.
    OK, so let's agree that the quality of Guardian news reporting is atrocious :smile: .

    I think the identification of profits to which taxes can be applied is perhaps a missing element of any debate, as this is an outrage bus.

    I think part of the context wrt Shell is that UK profits are already taxed at a high rate. The last number I saw was quite a bit higher than normal Corp. Tax due to an increased tax for oil companies, and then a windfall tax on top of that.

    I can see the argument for a tax on windfall gains unrelated to the basic business operation - by analogy we give support to eg Renewables to prime the pump. But it needs to be very careful indeed - if we want to limit profit margins then what do we do with eg perfume companies, or software companies?
    On your first paragraph, there are other media companies that I'd want to pick off first :smile:

    I see the validity of your overall argument.

    Okay, a thought experiment (I know there will be problems with this, I am interested in what they are): Rather than having a percentage tax rate on corporate profits, imagine a world in which any single company could make a maximum of, say, £1bn in profit each year.

    Ignoring the impossibility of implementing such a scheme, would it fundamentally break the capitalist system, or would it simply reduce big companies' desires to take productive risks?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,166
    edited February 2023

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    4% interest rate confirmed

    I think that is the BoE finally caught up with the surge in inflation. There will probably be another couple of 0.25% increases but my guess is that is the heavy lifting done. These interest rate increases were, of course, the main reason that the IMF were forecasting lower growth in the UK than elsewhere.
    Yes indeed interest rates likely to peak at 4.5% Spring 2023 and stay around there for rest of 2023.

    I am now projecting CPI 4% to 5% Dec 2023. Bank may leave rates at around 4% for a while to try to squeeze CPI towards 2% in 2024 although this level of CPI may be difficult to achieve.
    Good. A dose of healthy inflation is a good thing, allowing sticky prices to adjust without going negative, as opposed to rampant inflation or no inflation/deflation.

    That's the problem we've had in recent years has been rampant inflation in parts of the economy, but virtually-zero CPI, which has completely distorted the economy.

    A few years of moderate CPI inflation around the 4-5% mark, and declining house prices, will do wonders for rebalancing the economy and making life more affordable for those working for a living rather than allowing rentiers to extract all the wealth of the economy.
    Those with a mortgage however have to make higher mortgage repayments every time rates rise if not on a fixed rate
    No shit Sherlock.

    Though if there's a healthy dose of inflation then wages should be going up too, while the price of the property purchase was locked in years ago while wages were lower, so even then a higher percentage of a lower (in real terms) number while uncomfortable is not the end of the world.

    Better than people seeing house prices being unaffordable, rent as a result shooting up in real terms further and further consistently while houses are out of reach and wages are stagnant as has happened since the early New Labour years onwards.

    Speaking as someone who completed his house purchase in December, I really hope I bought at the very peak of the market and that sort of insane house price multiple is never seen again. I don't care if I "lose out" by seeing the value of my property fall in real terms, even if it leads to negative equity, I have my own home, there's millions of others who are struggling far more.
    Average wages are going up by less than inflation, hence the strikes
    They're going up by more than house prices. That's a good start.
    I wouldn't be so sure there - round this neck of the woods the asking prices for first homes seem to be increasing.
    Nationwide at least house prices have fallen for the fifth month in a row, long may it continue, and are now annually up by 2.9% which is less than annual wage inflation.

    It's a baby step, a much bigger fall in house prices and a much bigger rise in wages, sustained for years will be needed to reverse the damage of the past couple of decades of rampant inflation.
    Rampant *House Price* inflation :smile: , I trust you mean.

    However, we need to remember that rampant house price inflation stopped in 2010, and the noughties had around 3x the house price increase of the 2010s. I'll condemn the last Conservative Govts for lots of things, yet they did help calm down the housing market.

    I've said previously that I would pull the hot air from the housing market by removing tax breaks and demand side subsidy. (CGT on main dwellings like about half of Europe, Proportional Property Tax, end most 1st Time Buyer subsidies).


  • maxh said:

    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell derives around 5% of its revenue from its UK activities, I think ?
    Not much we can do about the rest of it.
    Agreed. I guess I'm asking a question of principle, rather than practicality. FWIW I can see the other side of the argument - that there are more downsides than upsides to any attempt to rein in market forces - but on an intellectual level I recognise that can't hold forever, hence the question as to whether there is some limit.
    The only way to limit the size of the profits is to limit the size of the companies. It doesn't make any more tax for Governments. It just means the headline numbers are smaller for any individual company. But limiting the size of companies simply for window dressing rather than because of monopoly concerns (as happened with the original 7 sisters in the US) is a pointless exercise particularly when the underlying source of the profits in the UK (the oil and gas licences) are already entirely in the hands of the Government.
    Thanks for all the replies, many focused on the practical problems of taxing foreign profits. I agree that this is not practical, nor necessarily desirable. As a side note I'm suspicious of the arguments that focus on benefits to the UK rather than considering the global impact, but can see why those arguments are made.

    Richard - your point gets at the heart of what I'm trying ro ask, thanks. For me, a 10% profit on revenues of $300bn is potentially at a damaging scale even if it isn't price gouging or excessive in terms of revenue/profit ratio (I agree it isn't on the same scale as Apple).

    It seems to me that the absolute value of the profit and the revenue percentage are both relevant, and an absolute value of £30bn points towards some form of market failure.

    On top of that, I am concerned about the power it hands to a single corporation to dictate the market it is operating within.

    Without getting into practicalities, I would dispute on principle that limiting the size of companies is pointless unless responding to monopoly concerns, because I think soing so would also limit corporate power to distort markets. However, I am not arguing that this is feasible in the current case, I really am just interested in the principle.

    The point about licences in the UK is important, agreed.
    If you try and restrict the size of the profit in absolute terms then you are saying that you want smaller companies - in a volatile business like oil & gas, a smaller margin means that the good times don't payback for the bad times.
    Lots of smaller companies would be better for me though as they would all need an Operations Geologist so I would have lots of work :)
    They would need to operate at higher margins, though, being smaller.

    So if you divided Shell back into the 90 odd country companies it consists of, it would, as a group of companies make more profit.
    It would as a group of companies cost more, due to lacking economies of scale. They might not necessarily make more profit though, even with higher operating margins.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    That's true.

    It's the fact that you think like a Russia troll, that is concerning.

    But we live in a free society so you, Dura, McClusky, Corbyn and the rest of your fellow travellers are free to think as you do. It's part of what makes us better than the Russians.
    I think that's a little unfair to Dura_Ace, who I would never accuse of being a Russian troll. If anything, he has a better view into the Russian mindset than any of us. I may disagree with him on some things, but he appears genuine.
    I wouldn't accuse him of being a Russian troll, I would instead suggest he is what in the Cold War would have been called a "useful idiot". He seems to truly swallow, believe and regurgitate the bullshit that the Russian trolls spout.

    Though for Dura it could just be a contrarian desire to be different.
    It is pragmatism and perspective. Something that the PB warriors on here mostly lack.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,395

    Hah.


    I'm pretty happy with 1.6% for five years!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    TOPPING said:

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    That's true.

    It's the fact that you think like a Russia troll, that is concerning.

    But we live in a free society so you, Dura, McClusky, Corbyn and the rest of your fellow travellers are free to think as you do. It's part of what makes us better than the Russians.
    I think that's a little unfair to Dura_Ace, who I would never accuse of being a Russian troll. If anything, he has a better view into the Russian mindset than any of us. I may disagree with him on some things, but he appears genuine.
    I wouldn't accuse him of being a Russian troll, I would instead suggest he is what in the Cold War would have been called a "useful idiot". He seems to truly swallow, believe and regurgitate the bullshit that the Russian trolls spout.

    Though for Dura it could just be a contrarian desire to be different.
    It is pragmatism and perspective. Something that the PB warriors on here mostly lack.
    Yes and no. One of the thing that amuses me about good old DA is that he never has anything good to say about anyone, anytime. And by nature I'm rather sussy of people like that, as much as I'm sussy about people who say everyone (especially their own side) is good.
  • MattW said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    4% interest rate confirmed

    I think that is the BoE finally caught up with the surge in inflation. There will probably be another couple of 0.25% increases but my guess is that is the heavy lifting done. These interest rate increases were, of course, the main reason that the IMF were forecasting lower growth in the UK than elsewhere.
    Yes indeed interest rates likely to peak at 4.5% Spring 2023 and stay around there for rest of 2023.

    I am now projecting CPI 4% to 5% Dec 2023. Bank may leave rates at around 4% for a while to try to squeeze CPI towards 2% in 2024 although this level of CPI may be difficult to achieve.
    Good. A dose of healthy inflation is a good thing, allowing sticky prices to adjust without going negative, as opposed to rampant inflation or no inflation/deflation.

    That's the problem we've had in recent years has been rampant inflation in parts of the economy, but virtually-zero CPI, which has completely distorted the economy.

    A few years of moderate CPI inflation around the 4-5% mark, and declining house prices, will do wonders for rebalancing the economy and making life more affordable for those working for a living rather than allowing rentiers to extract all the wealth of the economy.
    Those with a mortgage however have to make higher mortgage repayments every time rates rise if not on a fixed rate
    No shit Sherlock.

    Though if there's a healthy dose of inflation then wages should be going up too, while the price of the property purchase was locked in years ago while wages were lower, so even then a higher percentage of a lower (in real terms) number while uncomfortable is not the end of the world.

    Better than people seeing house prices being unaffordable, rent as a result shooting up in real terms further and further consistently while houses are out of reach and wages are stagnant as has happened since the early New Labour years onwards.

    Speaking as someone who completed his house purchase in December, I really hope I bought at the very peak of the market and that sort of insane house price multiple is never seen again. I don't care if I "lose out" by seeing the value of my property fall in real terms, even if it leads to negative equity, I have my own home, there's millions of others who are struggling far more.
    Average wages are going up by less than inflation, hence the strikes
    They're going up by more than house prices. That's a good start.
    I wouldn't be so sure there - round this neck of the woods the asking prices for first homes seem to be increasing.
    Nationwide at least house prices have fallen for the fifth month in a row, long may it continue, and are now annually up by 2.9% which is less than annual wage inflation.

    It's a baby step, a much bigger fall in house prices and a much bigger rise in wages, sustained for years will be needed to reverse the damage of the past couple of decades of rampant inflation.
    Rampant *House Price* inflation :smile: , I trust you mean.

    However, we need to remember that rampant house price inflation stopped in 2010, and the noughties had around 3x the house price increase of the 2010s. I'll condemn the last Conservative Govts for lots of things, yet they did help calm down the housing market.


    Rampant inflation in any sector is concerning, so yes I clearly meant house price inflation but that is rampant inflation. Rampant house price inflation is no better than rampant CPI inflation. The fact that CPI excluded house prices just makes CPI dodgy data.

    Yes I 100% agree that the problem was worse in the 00s than the 10s, I've made the same point many times to @CorrectHorseBattery3 however the problem still existed and it will take a lot to reverse the damage that has been done and bring house prices down in real terms back down to what they were pre Blair and Brown.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,150

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    It must figure to some extent. Eg I wouldn't give the PB equivalent of Hitler a 'like' even for a really solid post. That doesn't make me a drip.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    Fair enough - good response.

    You like what you believe in; your views happen to coincide with Russian trolls but so be it.
    Exactly. Likewise Hitler, Stalin, Donald Trump, Myra Hindley etc. I believe what I believe in due to my own life experiences, moral compass, political and moral hinterland, sense of justice, and belief in what works. My views are changeable, but by new, relevant information, not by someone else jumping on board for what could be any reason of their own. That would be insupportable, not to mention intellectually lazy.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,230

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Apologies for re-posting, but can I ask this again? I'm genuinely interested in whether people would defend Shell's profits. I feel as though we are rapidly reaching the point where these sorts of numbers are becoming indefensible, but I would welcome being challenged on it.
    Dont mind them making the profits. Do mind them paying zero corporation tax and in the case of windfall gains from an illegal war they should definitely face windfall taxes.
    Do you see any limit on the level of profits you don't mind them making? I'll readily admit, £30bn doesn't feel very different to £30m on an emotional level, even though intellectually I know it is. But it feels big enough to start distorting the economy in an unhealthy way.
    Shell derives around 5% of its revenue from its UK activities, I think ?
    Not much we can do about the rest of it.
    Agreed. I guess I'm asking a question of principle, rather than practicality. FWIW I can see the other side of the argument - that there are more downsides than upsides to any attempt to rein in market forces - but on an intellectual level I recognise that can't hold forever, hence the question as to whether there is some limit.
    The only way to limit the size of the profits is to limit the size of the companies. It doesn't make any more tax for Governments. It just means the headline numbers are smaller for any individual company. But limiting the size of companies simply for window dressing rather than because of monopoly concerns (as happened with the original 7 sisters in the US) is a pointless exercise particularly when the underlying source of the profits in the UK (the oil and gas licences) are already entirely in the hands of the Government.
    Thanks for all the replies, many focused on the practical problems of taxing foreign profits. I agree that this is not practical, nor necessarily desirable. As a side note I'm suspicious of the arguments that focus on benefits to the UK rather than considering the global impact, but can see why those arguments are made.

    Richard - your point gets at the heart of what I'm trying ro ask, thanks. For me, a 10% profit on revenues of $300bn is potentially at a damaging scale even if it isn't price gouging or excessive in terms of revenue/profit ratio (I agree it isn't on the same scale as Apple).

    It seems to me that the absolute value of the profit and the revenue percentage are both relevant, and an absolute value of £30bn points towards some form of market failure.

    On top of that, I am concerned about the power it hands to a single corporation to dictate the market it is operating within.

    Without getting into practicalities, I would dispute on principle that limiting the size of companies is pointless unless responding to monopoly concerns, because I think soing so would also limit corporate power to distort markets. However, I am not arguing that this is feasible in the current case, I really am just interested in the principle.

    The point about licences in the UK is important, agreed.
    If you try and restrict the size of the profit in absolute terms then you are saying that you want smaller companies - in a volatile business like oil & gas, a smaller margin means that the good times don't payback for the bad times.
    Lots of smaller companies would be better for me though as they would all need an Operations Geologist so I would have lots of work :)
    They would need to operate at higher margins, though, being smaller.

    So if you divided Shell back into the 90 odd country companies it consists of, it would, as a group of companies make more profit.
    Personally, (and in general not particularly in Shell's case, Richard has pointed out that the market they're in is largely controlled by OPEC) I think that might be worth it, as it might shift the balance of power back towards states at the expense of corporations.

    Of course we then get into a sticky debate about the legitimacy of state power in many of the countries Shell operates in, which is why I'm sticking to principles not practicalities :smile:
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434
    kinabalu said:

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    It must figure to some extent. Eg I wouldn't give the PB equivalent of Hitler a 'like' even for a really solid post. That doesn't make me a drip.
    I would, and I think it does.
  • kinabalu said:

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    It must figure to some extent. Eg I wouldn't give the PB equivalent of Hitler a 'like' even for a really solid post. That doesn't make me a drip.
    That post seems to suggest that there IS a PB equivalent of Hitler. Wow, that is quite a revelation. Is he is a Scottish Nationalist by any chance?
  • DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    Fair enough - good response.

    You like what you believe in; your views happen to coincide with Russian trolls but so be it.
    Exactly. Likewise Hitler, Stalin, Donald Trump, Myra Hindley etc. I believe what I believe in due to my own life experiences, moral compass, political and moral hinterland, sense of justice, and belief in what works. My views are changeable, but by new, relevant information, not by someone else jumping on board for what could be any reason of their own. That would be insupportable, not to mention intellectually lazy.
    I am curious what about your own life experiences makes you so keen to buy into the Russian side of events like MH17 etc
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,395

    kinabalu said:

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    It must figure to some extent. Eg I wouldn't give the PB equivalent of Hitler a 'like' even for a really solid post. That doesn't make me a drip.
    That post seems to suggest that there IS a PB equivalent of Hitler. Wow, that is quite a revelation. Is he is a Scottish Nationalist by any chance?
    Not any more now Rod Crosby has gone.

    There are some who sail a bit close to the wind, but not that close.
  • Leon said:

    I’m in a super posh new Bangkok restaurant having a FREE zillion course tasting nu-nordic menu with paired wines helmed by a 3 star chef


    And my dining partner has just puked up the first course - a poached oyster with scarlet caviar and has fled the building

    Wtf do I do? It’s all free. I can’t eat 98 courses and drink 428 wines. But I can’t offend them

    True story. Is this the most first world of first world problems??





    Anyone who has an oyster poached deserves to go home early. Poaching an oyster is like putting ice in one's scotch.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    Why are people jumping on @HYUFD again?

    He did concede to me yesterday re A-Level results for required for Russell Group unis which was gracious.

    Thanks CHB, I was genuinely interested to see if HYUFD would ever admit he's wrong (since there are numerous situations where he clearly is wrong and refuses to admit it).

    As your exchange yesterday so eloquently notes, arguing with HYUFD is like arguing with a toddler. His (almost) constant refusal to admit whenever he's wrong, which he often is, is why people pile in on him.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    franklyn said:

    What is the collective wisdom of PBers as to the most likely date of the next general election?
    My question is prompted by the possibility of standing in North East Bedfordshire as an independent against the incumbent Conservative. Quite a number of people have suggested that I should do so. It might be interesting.

    27th January 2025......

    No seriously.... probably October 2024. Sunak will do a Major and hope something turns up. However unlike Major who could push it out to the death (April 92 to May 97), pushing it out to the death here means a Christmas campaign in 24/25 and a January election. I don't think he'll be quite that brave.
  • Leon said:

    I’m in a super posh new Bangkok restaurant having a FREE zillion course tasting nu-nordic menu with paired wines helmed by a 3 star chef


    And my dining partner has just puked up the first course - a poached oyster with scarlet caviar and has fled the building

    Wtf do I do? It’s all free. I can’t eat 98 courses and drink 428 wines. But I can’t offend them

    True story. Is this the most first world of first world problems??





    Anyone who has an oyster poached deserves to go home early. Poaching an oyster is like putting ice in one's scotch.
    No need to put ice in your scotch if the Coke was in the fridge beforehand. ;)
  • ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    It must figure to some extent. Eg I wouldn't give the PB equivalent of Hitler a 'like' even for a really solid post. That doesn't make me a drip.
    That post seems to suggest that there IS a PB equivalent of Hitler. Wow, that is quite a revelation. Is he is a Scottish Nationalist by any chance?
    Not any more now Rod Crosby has gone.

    There are some who sail a bit close to the wind, but not that close.
    Ah, the swing back advocate? I remember him. I wasn't aware he was into leather wellies, world domination and genocide though.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    Fair enough - good response.

    You like what you believe in; your views happen to coincide with Russian trolls but so be it.
    Exactly. Likewise Hitler, Stalin, Donald Trump, Myra Hindley etc. I believe what I believe in due to my own life experiences, moral compass, political and moral hinterland, sense of justice, and belief in what works. My views are changeable, but by new, relevant information, not by someone else jumping on board for what could be any reason of their own. That would be insupportable, not to mention intellectually lazy.
    I am curious what about your own life experiences makes you so keen to buy into the Russian side of events like MH17 etc
    It is in my nature to adjust to new paradigms very quickly and assimilate them into my world view. That can be a benefit, where I have adjusted to new facts when others are struggling in denial, but it can also lead me up the garden path of believing something quickly when I should have more caution.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,395

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    It must figure to some extent. Eg I wouldn't give the PB equivalent of Hitler a 'like' even for a really solid post. That doesn't make me a drip.
    That post seems to suggest that there IS a PB equivalent of Hitler. Wow, that is quite a revelation. Is he is a Scottish Nationalist by any chance?
    Not any more now Rod Crosby has gone.

    There are some who sail a bit close to the wind, but not that close.
    Ah, the swing back advocate? I remember him. I wasn't aware he was into leather wellies, world domination and genocide though.
    He was a Holocaust denier.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    MattW said:

    It's a day with D in it so we need to talk about trans :wink: .

    Interesting piece arguing that the Scottish Gov attempt to give exactly the same rights to for want to Gender Recognition by self-ID as the current process has undermined protection for trans people. Quite an interesting analogy with disability and Blue Badges:


    Let me offer an analogy that might be helpful to Sturgeon: blue badges are issued to disabled people who need extra flexibility in where they can park their car. There are processes that applicants must follow to get a blue badge. They cost £10 for starters – more expensive than a GRC, but let’s not dwell on that – and the local council conducts an assessment to decide if you are eligible.

    Now let’s say that some progressive politicians decide those processes are unnecessary bureaucracy, or even demeaning to disabled people. They decide instead to offer blue badges to anyone who chooses to self-identify as disabled. The incentive to do so is obvious, as is the inevitable chaos. Traffic would snarl to a halt as those who wanted to park more easily filled out the paperwork to be allowed to do so.

    Who suffers? Ultimately, everyone – parking is usually restricted for good reason – but specifically those who needed the extra flexibility. The privilege that they required is brought into disrepute by those who merely wanted it. Sturgeon has done something similar to trans rights.


    I qualify as double disabled whenever campaigners want to big up the numbers in Parliament to make the Government do what they want - I wear glasses all the time and I have Type I diabetes. I quite like the prospect of getting a Blue Badge by self-ID, but the processes are (correctly) different and are an evaluation based on context, rather than the process of qualifying to be included in the "disabled" category for some activists.

    Hmmm.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeons-bungled-gender-crusade-has-undermined-trans-rights/

    What is it about Spectator writers and dodgy analogies ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    ydoethur said:

    Hah.


    I'm pretty happy with 1.6% for five years!
    Ha! I have a one year savings bond about to mature next week, at 1.25% interest, which seemed a very good deal when I took it out. How things change in just a year….
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    maxh said:

    MattW said:

    maxh said:

    MattW said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Is it from "The Economy" that is subject to tax in the UK? Or is it a worldwide number?

    I note that the Guardian does not tell us, nor do they explain how much tax is paid already.

    I'd say they are trying to maintain the outrage, complete with rantaquotes from Ed Davey and Greenpeace.

    Sorry, but I'd say that is the permatrolling type of commentary, as when for example Professor Murphy was frothing away years ago about how banks were avoiding tax, when the profit had been absorbed by losses from previous years.
    Thanks for the reply. Are you saying, then, that any amount of profit is acceptable if appropriate taxes are paid? That's my question really, not a question about the quality of the Guardian's reporting.

    In my view there is a (pretty high) limit to levels of acceptable profit, not least because profits of that size suggest a market that is captured in an unhealthy way. I think this might be an example of that limit being breached, regardless of where the profit has been garnered globally.
    OK, so let's agree that the quality of Guardian news reporting is atrocious :smile: .

    I think the identification of profits to which taxes can be applied is perhaps a missing element of any debate, as this is an outrage bus.

    I think part of the context wrt Shell is that UK profits are already taxed at a high rate. The last number I saw was quite a bit higher than normal Corp. Tax due to an increased tax for oil companies, and then a windfall tax on top of that.

    I can see the argument for a tax on windfall gains unrelated to the basic business operation - by analogy we give support to eg Renewables to prime the pump. But it needs to be very careful indeed - if we want to limit profit margins then what do we do with eg perfume companies, or software companies?
    On your first paragraph, there are other media companies that I'd want to pick off first :smile:

    I see the validity of your overall argument.

    Okay, a thought experiment (I know there will be problems with this, I am interested in what they are): Rather than having a percentage tax rate on corporate profits, imagine a world in which any single company could make a maximum of, say, £1bn in profit each year.

    Ignoring the impossibility of implementing such a scheme, would it fundamentally break the capitalist system, or would it simply reduce big companies' desires to take productive risks?
    You'd end up with smaller companies, which would probably have higher percentage profits individually. So over all profits would go up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    ydoethur said:

    Hah.


    I'm pretty happy with 1.6% for five years!
    That explains the profile pic !
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited February 2023

    Why are people jumping on @HYUFD again?

    He did concede to me yesterday re A-Level results for required for Russell Group unis which was gracious.

    Thanks CHB, I was genuinely interested to see if HYUFD would ever admit he's wrong (since there are numerous situations where he clearly is wrong and refuses to admit it).

    As your exchange yesterday so eloquently notes, arguing with HYUFD is like arguing with a toddler. His (almost) constant refusal to admit whenever he's wrong, which he often is, is why people pile in on him.
    Rubbish. We all have our way of posting on PB and if you can't get another poster to realise that you are right by painting them into a corner where the only alternatives are accepting that you are right, changing the subject, or going ad hom then you need to brush up on your posting skills.

    If you really think the Route One approach to @HYUFD or indeed any poster of "you are wrong why don't you just accept it?" is going to work then you haven't been paying attention on PB.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,395
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Hah.


    I'm pretty happy with 1.6% for five years!
    That explains the profile pic !
    It's not too long before a regeneration will be needed...
  • maxh said:

    MattW said:

    maxh said:

    MattW said:

    maxh said:

    All you free marketeers on here...do you think there is any level of profit-taking from the economy that is 'too much'? If so, is £32.2bn too much? If so, what should be done about it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine

    FWIW, I recognise the risks of stepping in to regulate this further. But I also see the risks and distortion effects of profits this size, particularly in the way it funnels money from the economy as a whole into the pockets of a smaller group of richer individuals, who are then able to distort markets such as the housing market in London, because of their excess wealth.

    Yes, I know institutional investors, pension funds etc are a thing and profits like this can be good for them, and I'm not dismissing that angle, I just don't think it's the whole story.

    Is it from "The Economy" that is subject to tax in the UK? Or is it a worldwide number?

    I note that the Guardian does not tell us, nor do they explain how much tax is paid already.

    I'd say they are trying to maintain the outrage, complete with rantaquotes from Ed Davey and Greenpeace.

    Sorry, but I'd say that is the permatrolling type of commentary, as when for example Professor Murphy was frothing away years ago about how banks were avoiding tax, when the profit had been absorbed by losses from previous years.
    Thanks for the reply. Are you saying, then, that any amount of profit is acceptable if appropriate taxes are paid? That's my question really, not a question about the quality of the Guardian's reporting.

    In my view there is a (pretty high) limit to levels of acceptable profit, not least because profits of that size suggest a market that is captured in an unhealthy way. I think this might be an example of that limit being breached, regardless of where the profit has been garnered globally.
    OK, so let's agree that the quality of Guardian news reporting is atrocious :smile: .

    I think the identification of profits to which taxes can be applied is perhaps a missing element of any debate, as this is an outrage bus.

    I think part of the context wrt Shell is that UK profits are already taxed at a high rate. The last number I saw was quite a bit higher than normal Corp. Tax due to an increased tax for oil companies, and then a windfall tax on top of that.

    I can see the argument for a tax on windfall gains unrelated to the basic business operation - by analogy we give support to eg Renewables to prime the pump. But it needs to be very careful indeed - if we want to limit profit margins then what do we do with eg perfume companies, or software companies?
    On your first paragraph, there are other media companies that I'd want to pick off first :smile:

    I see the validity of your overall argument.

    Okay, a thought experiment (I know there will be problems with this, I am interested in what they are): Rather than having a percentage tax rate on corporate profits, imagine a world in which any single company could make a maximum of, say, £1bn in profit each year.

    Ignoring the impossibility of implementing such a scheme, would it fundamentally break the capitalist system, or would it simply reduce big companies' desires to take productive risks?
    The latter.

    When one of the UK independent oil companies decided to develop a field West of Shetlands about a decade ago and it went wrong (as they do rather often) they ended up costing them somewhere in the region of £2 billion. When the risks are that high no one is going to touch it if the potential profits aren't substantially higher.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    DJ41a said:

    On-topic:

    "I think they are stuck with (Sunak) until Starmer gets his post election call from the Palace."

    I don't. If Sunak had his feet planted solidly in his position as party leader he'd have appointed a new party chairman by now. Unprecedented, how long it's taking. (That's unless there was a case before 1944.)

    Even if the only consideration were what I'm hearing about Zahawi, it'd be hard to picture an apparently weak leader such as Sunak staying in office for long.

    Oops, I see LuckyGuy has fallen for giving a Russian troll a like. Says it all really.
    I like posts I feel have made a good point; who the point has been made by doesn’t figure in my decision - that would make me a weak-minded drip.
    It must figure to some extent. Eg I wouldn't give the PB equivalent of Hitler a 'like' even for a really solid post. That doesn't make me a drip.
    That post seems to suggest that there IS a PB equivalent of Hitler. Wow, that is quite a revelation. Is he is a Scottish Nationalist by any chance?
    Not any more now Rod Crosby has gone.

    There are some who sail a bit close to the wind, but not that close.
    Ah, the swing back advocate? I remember him. I wasn't aware he was into leather wellies, world domination and genocide though.
    He was a Holocaust denier.
    Oh! that is unpleasant, and not worthy of any further jesting.

    I do wonder what sort of pathology must be going on in someone's head to be a holocaust denier. How does one come to that conclusion? The closest thing in the current time must be Putin apologists. Those that refer to a murderous war as an "SMO" for example.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309

    Leon said:

    I’m in a super posh new Bangkok restaurant having a FREE zillion course tasting nu-nordic menu with paired wines helmed by a 3 star chef


    And my dining partner has just puked up the first course - a poached oyster with scarlet caviar and has fled the building

    Wtf do I do? It’s all free. I can’t eat 98 courses and drink 428 wines. But I can’t offend them

    True story. Is this the most first world of first world problems??





    Anyone who has an oyster poached deserves to go home early. Poaching an oyster is like putting ice in one's scotch.
    I tend to agree. I love oysters but don’t fuck about with them

    If they are good: raw. Otherwise hide them away in sauces or chuck em in the bin

    Omg they are now offering me a selection of Swedish knives
This discussion has been closed.