Trump back as WH2024 GOP nominee betting favourite – politicalbetting.com
Trump back as WH2024 GOP nominee betting favourite – politicalbetting.com
Although it is more than 20 months away one of the biggest betting markets at the moment is on who will be the nominees for the 2024 White House race.
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But note that even the Daily Mail doesn't mention the race of the accused.
(In this area, our TV stations usually do not mention the race of those accused with crimes -- but, when they can do so legally, they show pictures.)
https://news.sky.com/story/starmers-radical-promises-have-gone-as-he-targets-power-but-we-still-dont-really-know-who-he-is-12797445
I think that Trump is still value, should probably be odds-on for the GOP nomination, but if he is knocked out of the race over the next year then there's going to be a very wide field and DeSantis wouldn't be a strong frontrunner in that field.
And 36 percent say there are undecided."
source: https://nhjournal.com/exclusive-nhjournal-poll-finds-nhgop-divided-on-trump-24/
(For the record: I am unfamiliar with the polling firm, and would remind you that much depends on the state of the economy when the nomination process officially starts.)
That none scary bit is why the Labour Party doesn’t want to talk policies to ensure the papers have nothing but the latest Tory party scandal.
For the LibDems, with their positioning of respecting voters as adults, I think one policy on decriminalising drug use would be sufficient. Instead there are literally hundreds of policy items discussed and voted on at conference. Very frustrating!
Trump beats Biden 48% to 43% and Harris 50% to 40%
https://www.newsmax.com/mclaughlin/electorate-speech-votes/2023/01/27/id/1106204/
Though Echelon Insights has Biden still beating Trump 45% to 42% albeit with DeSantis beating Biden 45% to 42% in turn
https://echelonin.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/January-2023-Omnibus-Topline-EXTERNAL.pdf
HUGE issue in the great Granite State, where the NH Primary is both a revered tradition AND a significant quadrennial cottage industry.
From my own humble experience, concur with Malc . . . on THIS topic.
Events.
The monsters under Labour's bed.
The dangers of running for election from opposition when the government is terrible in every way BUT there are no rational policies addressing the real issues that are any short term use to short term electors - which is the real reason why you don't have any policies.
Brexit remains the political equivalent of trying to play cricket and rugby on the same pitch at the same time. No-one knows when the ball will come out of the scrum and get you lbw.
Johnson, then prime minister, was warned by officials on December 22, 2020 that he had to stop speaking to Sharp about his financial affairs. Sharp was announced as the government’s choice for chairman of the national broadcaster on January 6, 2021.
The Cabinet Office document was drawn up after Johnson and Sharp sought advice in early December on accepting a loan of up to £800,000 guaranteed by the prime minister’s distant cousin, Sam Blyth, a Canadian businessman. Blyth and Sharp had discussed how to help Johnson with his finances on two occasions, the first, at a dinner in September and the second, on the telephone. Johnson secured the loan in February 2021, according to his own declaration in the internal register of ministers’ interests, parts of which are not made public.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-was-told-stop-seeking-richard-sharps-advice-on-financial-matters-n2jgkjk7x
https://smwsa.com/blogs/cask-curriculum/cask-curriculum-whisky-water
"In January 2000, a grim cover story in Newsweek forecast that as many as 30 million African children could be orphaned by 2010 because of AIDS deaths. Demographers predicted that AIDS would kill half the teenagers in some African countries.
That horrific outcome never happened. Millions of Africans finally got access to affordable AIDS drugs, thanks in large part to the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). The ambitious initiative, launched by President George W. Bush, celebrates its 20th anniversary this weekend. Over the past two decades, PEPFAR has saved 25 million lives by providing more than $100 billion in funding for AIDS prevention and treatment."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/28/pepfar-aids-congress-reauthorize/
Gates is worried, with some reason in my opinion, that we may be slipping back in our campaign against this terrible disease.
(Incidentally, I don't know of any news organizations better equipped to do a long series --now -- on PEPFAR than the BBC)
According to IRS data, New York’s pandemic deserters had average incomes that were 28 percent higher than residents who stayed.
https://www.curbed.com/2023/01/nyc-real-estate-covid-more-apartments-higher-rent.html
I wonder how this compares to other big cities like London? Certainly it seems other US cities like LA and SF have seen similar and tax revenues have collapsed in SF.
You don’t mess with them.
The rumours are she gets 60% of all his future income.
His current wife isn’t a spendthrift.
Being PM denied his usual outside income.
Where is Liz Truss to tell us that THIS IS A DISGRACE
Trump 2028?
Getting a legal settlement was the only way of getting Boris Johnson to honour it.
Testing, testing 123.
(Except he's presumably decided that he's RC after all so Not Our Problem.)
No wonder that it has killed and tortured and abused and blighted the lives of so many millions over the centuries.
Not ideal if you're in a negotiation.
By the way neither religion nor irreligion nor communism nor political ideology tortures and kills. People torture and kill.
Rest of world: transwomen are men. Objections to putting them in women's spaces is because they are men, not because they are trans…
This dynamic is apparent in every single area of public controversy. It's an unbridgeable gulf.
https://twitter.com/docstockk/status/1619298267787055104
No losing VP nominee has gone on to win the Presidency or even their party's nomination since FDR
It's a big file.
Both are from Florida and that buggers up the electoral college voters.
It also remains steadfast to a strict biblical line even in a more liberal age, especially in the West, in not agreeing to divorce, women priests and bishops, married priests and non celibate priests, homosexual marriage, abortion etc. So while I may disagree with it on much of that it does have clear principles
Paneer Tank!
(I thank you!)
The key issue is this. Any wannabee GOP Presidential nominee has a choice to make. You either run against Trump, in which case you have to, y'know, actually criticise him, and point out that he lost the 2020 election, or you have to support him for the 2024 election.
They're all too cowardly/realistic about the hold Trump has on the GOP grassroots to criticise him, or contradict his lie about winning in 2020, so they can't possibly seriously run against him. How can your pitch to the primary voters be, "Trump was the rightful winner of the 2020 election, he's a great guy, the Democrats stole the election from him, and we should let them get away with that by not voting for Trump in 2024." It doesn't make any sense.
So all the other possible runners are left hoping for an actuarial or judicial solution to the Trump problem.
Edit - also Mondale.
Nixon lost as the presidential candidate in 1960, he never lost as the VP GOP nominee.
Mondale was elected VP in 1976 when Carter won, so that would be a different scenario as Trump would still have to win in 2024 with DeSantis on the ticket for equivalence
Nixon was of course the last previously defeated presidential candidate to date - as opposed to primary nominee - to be elected President.
So that is not the same situation at all as Trump picking DeSantis in 2024 as his VP and the ticket losing, Trump-DeSantis would have to win in 2024 to be the equivalent of Carter-Mondale (even if DeSantis went on to lose in 2028 when he was incumbent VP)