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LAB extends lead in new “Red Wall” polling – politicalbetting.com
LAB extends lead in new “Red Wall” polling – politicalbetting.com
There’s a new poll out from R&W of forty ‘Red Wall’ seats. All but one of them went Tory at GE2019 with the only exception, Hartlepool, being gained in the 2020 by-election.
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However while the Tories are falling back in these working class seats under Sunak, Sunak is holding up better in the upper middle class Blue Wall.
So perhaps TSE might feel safe to vote Tory again now after voting LD since Cameron, given the average Tory voter is much posher and less common under Rishi than they were under Boris in 2019?
Even if Rishi loses the next general election he has at least made it safe for snobs to vote Tory again!!
He perhaps has a case which can be argued even if not won, since his complaint is about being associated with antisemitism.
Does equating his pet conspiracy theory with the Holocaust amount to antisemitism, or is it just offensive and imbecilic ?
And if there's a distinction, is it actionable ?
Governments crack and systems fall
Coz unity is powerful
Lights go out- walls come tumbling down
Alternatively:
It's coming home
It's coming home
The Red Wall's coming home
That is the kind of attitude the Tories needed in their new seats, and they haven't taken it up.
ChatGTP produces seemingly cogent but often deeply flawed bullshit responses in milliseconds, just sayin'.
(I'm only joking. I don't think Hyufd would do that.)
The legal test is what a reasonable person would hold, isn't it ?
Since the anti-vax thing is a blatantly untrue conspiracy theory, equating it to a vastly well documented historical event lays you open to the charge.
We can't know until the next general election if any hardworking redwall MPs defy the trend like Stewart.
But yes - an interesting piece of law if it goes to court on whether Hancock's comments re antisemitism are held to be fair or not.
The Red Wall are pi**ed off with the Tories at the moment, like most of the rest of the country. But Labour have a leader who seems to get a nosebleed if he goes outside the M25, and Red Wallers have realised they *can* vote for parties other than Labour. Many will turn back to Labour at the next GE, but unless Labour listens to them, the party will get punished in the future.
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1618581083989377025
Of course, under Scottish Prison Guidelines since 2014they still could be….and who is politically responsible for those guidelines?
Having thought it through, I thinks it's probably an Arkell v Pressdram case.
So Keith is Crap.
Blue wall was always more Tory than the red wall so you can’t directly compare polling that easily. One big factor in the South East in 2019 was Corbyn toxicity so the simple unwinding of this and greater tactical voting efficiency should help the Lib Dems (and Labour) even if the swing isn’t as big as up North.
I asked her how she knew it was a parakeet
She told me that at first she thought it could have been Donald Trump as they look the same have a similar IQ.
She realised it wasn't though as it was tweeting
This is why I married Mrs BJ
Five years ago, I saw my first one, and was astonished. In fact my then three year old saw it - 'parrot', she said. I didn't really believe her (although the noise it made was rather exotic) - but I looked, and yes, a parrot, or near enough. And now you see them most days. They nest in the Mersey Valley and flock in great numbers. The speed of their population growth is faintly alarming. Though we don't yet have as many here as I saw in Sefton Park in Liverpool. Bloody hundreds of them there.
Yes, there were some spectacular swings like Bassetlaw, North West Durham, Blyth Valley and Bridgend which had been safely Labour and fell to the Tories in 2019 but the unspoken story of the last 20 years has been the gradual creep of the Conservatives in semi-rural ex-industrial seats. Corbyn scored some spectacular successes in 2017 but that general trend was unchanged.
In fact, with a very modest change in campaigning focus to win a few thousand votes in just 50 seats May might well have won a majority analogous to Johnosn's.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feral_parakeets_in_Great_Britain
"The moment @ZelenskyyUa 's found out Germany was sending Leopard 2s to Ukraine."
https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1618316719445143552
But hey its 2023 now and I am on holiday..
Hopefully, he will get one soon.
I’m contemplating voting Labour.
I’m utterly sick of the sleaze, grift, and outright corruption this government has normalised.
That's where the Tories are.
Qualified privilege m'lud.
But they also hope their voters are bored. “We aren’t being shouted at on the doorstep by our own supporters, like we were in the worst days of Boris,” says one MP, wanly. “I’m not sure many of them are paying attention or care about these latest rows,” says a senior backbencher, rather hopefully.
This is a pretty dismal situation for Conservatives to be in: hoping their voters are bored of their dysfunction or at least numbed to it.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/tory-sleaze-problem-govern-b1055824.html
It's not reporting; doesn't it amount to repeating the statement outside of Parliament ?
And even then actively celebrating their own corruption and venality is unlikely to have quite the same electoral appeal in the UK.
But the problem is, there's a good chance that the war will not end like that. There needs to be a radical change in thinking within the Kremlin about how they treat the rest of the world, and especially their neighbours, or wit will just be another cold war, with the 'wall' hundreds of miles east of where it used to be. And that shift will not be NATOs fault, but Russia's.
And that change in thinking is something only the Russians can do; we cannot force it.
Also, the war is just the start for Ukraine. They are going to need a massive rebuilding and restructuring program, especially if they go back to the 2014 borders.
As voting Tory is not a current option on purely moral grounds (and a billion other reasons) suddenly these questions become interesting, and the Tories become yesterday's women (and men).
Never mind cabinet minister, or party chair, why is Zahawi still a candidate?
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1618564448582774784
Get thee glass eyes, and like a scurvy politician, seem to see the things thou dost not.
That house of cards just utterly collapsed
https://twitter.com/jebadoo2/status/1618591781410729989
Although equally she would have had to run a 5 year Parliament due to Covid which may have created problems for her in 2022.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/83/IWM-KID-772-Covenanter.jpg
This deal has been mentioned elsewhere months ago. Someone said it wasn't anything to do with the war in Ukraine, but Russia has a massive fondness for the Great Patriotic War, and many of the T34s they use for parades and such are in terrible condition. These are going to be used as spares, or to replace/expand the parade fleet.
It'd be like the RAF buying three Spitfires, or one Lancaster, for the BBMF.
(Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong, but it seems to show (i) that yes, some people will try to take the piss, but (ii) that won't be permitted)
The Johnson guarantee/ BBC issue should be an enormous scandal, I suspect that hasn't yet run its course. The Zahawi problem is a resigning matter but not even a patch on this latest Johnson scandal.
As @Driver notes, nobody has really made the case for why the EU is better (apart from trade). There needs to be a hearts, not just minds, case.
2) Sturgeon used executive powers to carry out exactly the action that was stated to be unacceptable and would never be needed anyway.
In Emerald City of Seattle, also seeing more birds from more southerly climes more often, such as hummingbirds.
ETA: Pending other input disputing this version, I do see the difference (and concern) here.
It's probably the same with these tanks.
Incidentally, apparently the T34s were built in Czechoslovakia, so they're not even Russian in origin...
If the buck stops with you as PM, all the blame ends up with you as well - even if the thing is relatively minor.
Yes, that's where I had in mind - in particular just by Jackson's Bridge.
Of Nippy's career...
Betting PostGood afternoon, everyone.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2023/01/everything-but-epl-26-january-2023.html
Just a couple of bets, Empoli to win at home versus Torino in Serie A at 3.35 (they've drawn away to Lazio and beaten Inter Milan recently), and Osasuna to beat Atletico Madrid in La Liga, at 3.8. The two sides are only 3 points apart so 3.8 for home win seems long.
Parakeets seem very adaptable to cold climates so it probably says more about the birds than the weather. They're also thriving in cold parts of the US:
https://news.uchicago.edu/story/escaped-pet-parrots-are-now-naturalized-23-us-states-study-finds
I was speaking to my niece and her fella, both born in 2000, at Xmas when they came to visit from Bristol. They’re both fucking livid that they can’t afford a house and, a close second, livid at Brexit. Pissed off they were too young to vote. Feel they’ve been betrayed by the Boomers on both issues. The heart thing seems ingrained with them. They want to be able to afford a house and they want freedom of movement, to be part of something bigger, something better than this right-wing shithole we’ve descended to. They’re not rich, or ‘woke’, just normal kids who feel betrayed.
I hope they’re representative of their age group.
There has been no interest in restoring or reviving Britain’s democratic culture. Quite the reverse.
I didn’t work so hard in the referendum, due to old age, although I did contribute money and stand on street corners handing out leaflets.
And I’d vote to Rejoin.
I am not in love with the EU, but it’s not possible to wish it away, and Britain’s only opportunity to push it in the most convivial direction is from the inside.
But I confess I don’t have a three word slogan to that effect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnrOggdSoi8
The EU's single USP was membership is less sub optimal, and by a country mile, than non membership.
Not that I advocate rejoin. That ship sailed when Boris Johnson " done Brexit".
The parakeets are descended from pets who have escaped/been released. It's probably an urban myth to suppose that it was all down to Jimi Hendrix, but it's fun nonetheless.
Arguably Britain had had some minor successes in seeing it not pushed too far in the wrong direction. But 'Join the EU and we can stop it becoming a Napoleonic superstate quite so fast' doesn't really cut the mustard as a compelling argument, whether you can make a three word slogan from it or not.
That’s why left-leaning groups tend to support membership.
But, that may not always be the case.
You can tell they are not indiginous but they seem to co-exist hppily enough with the locals.
Who'd have thought it a swan and a lion?