Should LAB be worried by this word cloud? – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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That's gross ... a union jack cushion.TheScreamingEagles said:Perhaps Nigel Farage can also use his OnlyFans account to help solve the housing crisis.
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Carried with pace from his own half, waltzed through defence, and finished like someone in the most nonchalant form of his life. Brilliant. To go with his brilliant goal from Sunday. 👏🏻DavidL said:That will do. 0-3. Tie over
Rashford’s goal was absolutely stunning btw.0 -
This year marks 13 years of Conservative PMs, following 13 years of Labour ones.1
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Maybe that's what that Breaking Point poster was about.Theuniondivvie said:
We must break free from the restrictive EUrocratic embrace of underpants!Stuartinromford said:
People did try and tell Farage it would be better staying in, but he wouldn't listen.kyf_100 said:
"Now before we get up Lynn, I'm just going to warn you - I have popped out again."TheScreamingEagles said:Perhaps Nigel Farage can also use his OnlyFans account to help solve the housing crisis.
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Time for a change.rcs1000 said:This year marks 13 years of Conservative PMs, following 13 years of Labour ones.
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I'm not sure they even deserve time in opposition, but in absence of anyone else mustering sufficient MPs to hold the new government vaguely to account, I guess it'll have to be them.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .1 -
Welcome back @nico679
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Thanks . Counting the days till we’re rid of the Tories !CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Welcome back @nico679
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As with Nadine Dorries, never put your trust in someone with such terrible taste.kinabalu said:
That's gross ... a union jack cushion.TheScreamingEagles said:Perhaps Nigel Farage can also use his OnlyFans account to help solve the housing crisis.
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So, you are saying that they pick up important poll movements first?MoonRabbit said:
you get excited over a people polling poll? They introduced double digit leads when everyone else had single digits.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Heh, remember when I said 30 point lead incoming?
🤔 Good point!
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Paging TSE about potential job opening....
It is often said that appearances matter - but one law firm has now told staff they can ditch sharp suits in the office and instead dress in a way that will “bring your personality to work”.
It has instead urged its 120 staff to dress as if they are attending Annabel’s, the exclusive private members' club in Mayfair, London, that is frequented by the rich and famous.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/01/25/appearances-matter-law-firm-ditches-sharp-suits-tells-staff/0 -
Book Review:
A God in Ruins, Kate Atkinson (2015)
The life of Teddy Todd, from his childhood in the 1920s, until his death in 2012, but heavily focused on and around his time as a bomber (Halifax) pilot in the Second World War.
Not the easiest of reads as the structure is highly non-linear: not only are the different eras interleaved and returned to, but within any chapter on a particular era the episodes are shuffled together so that very careful reading is required.
Atkinson is a very skilled writer, and she handles the complexities well, but they are - complex. Recurring motifs and memories help wind things together, and seeing things from the viewpoints of other characters - his wife, daughter, sister, grandson and granddaughter - gives depth and solidity to the story, while also forcing the reader to reconsider events as they are reviewed. It is interesting to note from her afterword that much of this motif-making is unconscious, and even to her can be sometimes mysterious.
The core of the book, as I said, is Teddy's time as a bomber pilot. The research is detailed and extensive, and I have no doubt gives as convincing a picture as it is possible to find in fiction of what it must have been like for those young men. There are a number of particularly heart-piercing stories that undoubtedly must be drawn from real life, and I would commend the book to anyone with an interest in the subject.
Atkinson can be a transcendent and lyrical writer - her observation of and conection with nature is superb (she does, I think, slightly take the mickey out of herself in the period when Teddy writes nature notes columns for the local magazine, and similarly in the person of the novelist daughter - or maybe that's a portrait of someone she knows?). I found myself reflecting that she writes of the experience of death, by the dying person, with more beauty and sympathy than I would have thought possible for an experience none of us can recount. But then, this is fiction.
At times bleak, at the end uplifting, I'd recommend this. Perhaps my only reservation is that it is very much a companion piece to her earlier Life After Life (in which Teddy is a supporting character, swapping the foreground with his sister Ursula), and some of this might seem baffling and unexpected to a reader who doesn't know the other book. I can also recommend LAL highly too - I think better than AGIR - so if you have the time for two 500-pagers, give it/them a go.0 -
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .0 -
This is a great thread by Tim Snyder on Russian influence in the US and the role of McGonigal.
https://twitter.com/timothydsnyder/status/1618309363084718080?s=46&t=dFldXlu0RaqXftllms6bXA
Almost certainly true that similar antics were at play for Brexit.1 -
“ Muse just tosh”Gardenwalker said:
You should do a thread header on this. The evolution of these tribes is worth subjecting to Bordieu-style class analysis too.EPG said:Other trajectories: the guitar band people who went from Radiohead en masse to Muse if they liked noodling on instruments themselves, and the ones who just listened went to those 2000s guitar bands from the magazines, even the dull ones you've forgotten like Jet. The hard kids who were into happy hardcore (not sure about this; annoying aggressive 90s dance music, not trance) switched to Eminem and forced his various LPs and "2001" onto the rest of us. Everyone was either openly or secretly paying attention to Britney Spears releases.
Personally I was into guitar bands at the time, including Radiohead, but I always thought Muse were just tosh. That whole “progressive” turn is unlistenable, actually worse than the original much-derided progressive rock.
Again, let’s let PBers decide for themselves
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhci-MG4DNE1 -
Let’s face it, you’re no @BlancheLivermore.MoonRabbit said:
“ Muse just tosh”Gardenwalker said:
You should do a thread header on this. The evolution of these tribes is worth subjecting to Bordieu-style class analysis too.EPG said:Other trajectories: the guitar band people who went from Radiohead en masse to Muse if they liked noodling on instruments themselves, and the ones who just listened went to those 2000s guitar bands from the magazines, even the dull ones you've forgotten like Jet. The hard kids who were into happy hardcore (not sure about this; annoying aggressive 90s dance music, not trance) switched to Eminem and forced his various LPs and "2001" onto the rest of us. Everyone was either openly or secretly paying attention to Britney Spears releases.
Personally I was into guitar bands at the time, including Radiohead, but I always thought Muse were just tosh. That whole “progressive” turn is unlistenable, actually worse than the original much-derided progressive rock.
Again, let’s let PBers decide for themselves
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhci-MG4DNE0 -
Number one in UK for moon landing. Have that pub quiz answer for freeGardenwalker said:
The Tories are actually ahead, and My Chemical Romance are very esteemed, on Planet Quargle Beta 7, in the year 2525.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:@MoonRabbit can explain why a 29 point lead - with 30 point incoming still - is actually showing the polls narrowing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4U78n4WmVo0 -
Latest date for the next election is 24 January 2025, so 730 days max!nico679 said:
Thanks . Counting the days till we’re rid of the Tories !CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Welcome back @nico679
How many scandals is that?1 -
If Leon needs to fund his forthcoming Tramadol addiction....
Anthropic AI is hiring a Prompt Engineer & Librarian.
Expected pay: $250k-$335k, plus equity!
https://twitter.com/ai__pub/status/16183450396793241600 -
Nope, "Something in the Air" (but it wasn't! there's no air there!).MoonRabbit said:
Number one in UK for moon landing. Have that pub quiz answer for freeGardenwalker said:
The Tories are actually ahead, and My Chemical Romance are very esteemed, on Planet Quargle Beta 7, in the year 2525.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:@MoonRabbit can explain why a 29 point lead - with 30 point incoming still - is actually showing the polls narrowing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4U78n4WmVo0 -
They will of course, I can’t see Davey replicating any kind of Cleggasm so we’re stuck with the duopoly, but the recriminations and the post mortems will be interesting and will determine what sort of Tory party emerges next.Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
If the election follows the apparent polling pattern and they crash and burn in the Red Wall but hold up in the South then there will be an almighty battle between those arguing this shows they should focus on their supposedly traditional core of fiscal discipline and business friendliness, and others (including the likes of Goodwin) wanting them to go further in the national populist direction to win back the North through full on US style culture war plus higher spending.
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Firstly 29 is not 30. The maths are against you on that one. Also another recent poll has gap at 14, so truth is a range from 14 to 29, with many bunched around late teens?CorrectHorseBattery3 said:
MoonRabbit you said the polls were narrowing, can you give me your analysis of a +5 gain for Labour? Interested to here how this fits inMoonRabbit said:
you get excited over a people polling poll? They introduced double digit leads when everyone else had single digits. The people polling poll actually don’t have Tories dropping at all since their last poll. They do have Labour getting +5 bounce.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Heh, remember when I said 30 point lead incoming?
Secondly I never said the polls are narrowing since Tory bounce early December. I always stick to facts.
The People Polling write up mentions Labour ahead on economy. Well, why not, it would be surprise other way round. We are within two years, ahead near 20, ahead on economy and best PM, was this ever the case within 2 years of 2015 and 1992 for yardstick? It feels significant shift in public opinion - but you still predict hung parliament yourself, because how far behind on seats Corbyn finished on and not many seats from Scotland?
It will be interesting what Tories fight on. Strong and stable versus Labour chaos? The party of sound finance and borrowing and low taxes? 48hrs to save the NHS from Labour? Protect the Tory Brexit deal and global Britain? Growth, growth, and growth?0 -
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.120 -
It's the SNP rather than the LDs who become the Official Opposition in a Tory wipe-out.TimS said:
They will of course, I can’t see Davey replicating any kind of Cleggasm so we’re stuck with the duopoly, but the recriminations and the post mortems will be interesting and will determine what sort of Tory party emerges next.Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
If the election follows the apparent polling pattern and they crash and burn in the Red Wall but hold up in the South then there will be an almighty battle between those arguing this shows they should focus on their supposedly traditional core of fiscal discipline and business friendliness, and others (including the likes of Goodwin) wanting them to go further in the national populist direction to win back the North through full on US style culture war plus higher spending.0 -
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Can't remember who pointed it out, but have been musing on the possibility that we are all just missing the impending Tory wipeout simply because Starmer isn't Blair.
The more I consider it, the more it has logic to it.2 -
What a brilliant idea. My own polling company. SCREAMING ORGASM POLLING.Anabobazina said:
An MRP - MoonRabbit PollCorrectHorseBattery3 said:@MoonRabbit can explain why a 29 point lead - with 30 point incoming still - is actually showing the polls narrowing
Could I afford Zahawi to advise me how it’s done?0 -
People polling is a new pollster and something of an outlier. I wouldn't be getting to excited/despondent.
I don't think GB News get upset about these findings - or Goodwin either. The populist right isn't too keen on the Tories nowadays.2 -
Facebook and Instagram lift the ban on Trump
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No, you're wrong, that's last week's PeoplePolling poll. Labour are up 5% since then...HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase0 -
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.120 -
Compared to the 21 they get this week it was good news for them.dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.120 -
Or the Sunak Tories specifically, if Boris again, Badenoch, Braverman or Rees Mogg were leading the Tories, GB News and Goodwin might have a different tune!FrankBooth said:People polling is a new pollster and something of an outlier. I wouldn't be getting to excited/despondent.
I don't think GB News get upset about these findings - or Goodwin either. The populist right isn't too keen on the Tories nowadays.0 -
Off topic, but I thought you might like some positive news: Dolphins have been spotted recently swimming around New York City.
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/01/22/dolphins-river-bronx-new-york/
(I hope Gardenwalker got a chance to see them.)
Just another example of the continuing improvement in our water -- and there are similar examples of improvement in our air, along, of course, with lots and lots of statistical evidence of improvements in both, even in places like greater Los Angeles.
Correct me if I am wrong, but it's my impression that there are similar examples, and similar trends, in the UK.
Which implies that people here and there will be healthier in future years, than they were just a few decades ago.1 -
Matt Goodwin is a joke now his polls show Labour so ahead. I see.
I’ve been saying that for years!1 -
Dems won't be unhappy, they'd like to see him win the GOP nomination now.Big_G_NorthWales said:Facebook and Instagram lift the ban on Trump
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You would like to think that applies to the UK too but...Jim_Miller said:Off topic, but I thought you might like some positive news: Dolphins have been spotted recently swimming around New York City.
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/01/22/dolphins-river-bronx-new-york/
(I hope Gardenwalker got a chance to see them.)
Just another example of the continuing improvement in our water -- and there are similar examples of improvement in our air, along, of course, with lots and lots of statistical evidence of improvements in both, even in places like greater Los Angeles.
Correct me if I am wrong, but it's my impression that there are similar examples, and similar trends, in the UK.
Which implies that people here and there will be healthier in future years, than they were just a few decades ago.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10125805/Fury-Tory-MPs-vote-allow-water-companies-dump-raw-sewage-Britains-rivers-seas.html0 -
729 sleeps till bin day. 🤗Benpointer said:
Latest date for the next election is 24 January 2025, so 730 days max!nico679 said:
Thanks . Counting the days till we’re rid of the Tories !CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Welcome back @nico679
How many scandals is that?
But each day already feels like a fucking eternity 😫1 -
😭 . .Gardenwalker said:
Let’s face it, you’re no @BlancheLivermore.MoonRabbit said:
“ Muse just tosh”Gardenwalker said:
You should do a thread header on this. The evolution of these tribes is worth subjecting to Bordieu-style class analysis too.EPG said:Other trajectories: the guitar band people who went from Radiohead en masse to Muse if they liked noodling on instruments themselves, and the ones who just listened went to those 2000s guitar bands from the magazines, even the dull ones you've forgotten like Jet. The hard kids who were into happy hardcore (not sure about this; annoying aggressive 90s dance music, not trance) switched to Eminem and forced his various LPs and "2001" onto the rest of us. Everyone was either openly or secretly paying attention to Britney Spears releases.
Personally I was into guitar bands at the time, including Radiohead, but I always thought Muse were just tosh. That whole “progressive” turn is unlistenable, actually worse than the original much-derided progressive rock.
Again, let’s let PBers decide for themselves
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhci-MG4DNE0 -
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase1 -
People Polling have been around since last August.FrankBooth said:People polling is a new pollster and something of an outlier. I wouldn't be getting to excited/despondent.
I don't think GB News get upset about these findings - or Goodwin either. The populist right isn't too keen on the Tories nowadays.0 -
I believe those dolphins were seen in the Bronx. They must be very tough, streetwise dolphins.Jim_Miller said:Off topic, but I thought you might like some positive news: Dolphins have been spotted recently swimming around New York City.
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/01/22/dolphins-river-bronx-new-york/
(I hope Gardenwalker got a chance to see them.)
Just another example of the continuing improvement in our water -- and there are similar examples of improvement in our air, along, of course, with lots and lots of statistical evidence of improvements in both, even in places like greater Los Angeles.
Correct me if I am wrong, but it's my impression that there are similar examples, and similar trends, in the UK.
Which implies that people here and there will be healthier in future years, than they were just a few decades ago.0 -
You may not realise it but you have identified just why the conservative party is in such a messHYUFD said:
Or the Sunak Tories specifically, if Boris again, Badenoch, Braverman or Rees Mogg were leading the Tories, GB News and Goodwin might have a different tune!FrankBooth said:People polling is a new pollster and something of an outlier. I wouldn't be getting to excited/despondent.
I don't think GB News get upset about these findings - or Goodwin either. The populist right isn't too keen on the Tories nowadays.1 -
Were they prowling the streets in a porpoiseful manner?Gardenwalker said:
I believe those dolphins were seen in the Bronx. They must be very tough, streetwise dolphins.Jim_Miller said:Off topic, but I thought you might like some positive news: Dolphins have been spotted recently swimming around New York City.
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/01/22/dolphins-river-bronx-new-york/
(I hope Gardenwalker got a chance to see them.)
Just another example of the continuing improvement in our water -- and there are similar examples of improvement in our air, along, of course, with lots and lots of statistical evidence of improvements in both, even in places like greater Los Angeles.
Correct me if I am wrong, but it's my impression that there are similar examples, and similar trends, in the UK.
Which implies that people here and there will be healthier in future years, than they were just a few decades ago.3 -
Chapeau.Benpointer said:
Were they prowling the streets in a porpoiseful manner?Gardenwalker said:
I believe those dolphins were seen in the Bronx. They must be very tough, streetwise dolphins.Jim_Miller said:Off topic, but I thought you might like some positive news: Dolphins have been spotted recently swimming around New York City.
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/01/22/dolphins-river-bronx-new-york/
(I hope Gardenwalker got a chance to see them.)
Just another example of the continuing improvement in our water -- and there are similar examples of improvement in our air, along, of course, with lots and lots of statistical evidence of improvements in both, even in places like greater Los Angeles.
Correct me if I am wrong, but it's my impression that there are similar examples, and similar trends, in the UK.
Which implies that people here and there will be healthier in future years, than they were just a few decades ago.0 -
God, don't. My recycling has only been picked up once since the start of December and the regular bins twice. My flat is a cardboard fire-hazard...MoonRabbit said:
729 sleeps till bin day. 🤗Benpointer said:
Latest date for the next election is 24 January 2025, so 730 days max!nico679 said:
Thanks . Counting the days till we’re rid of the Tories !CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Welcome back @nico679
How many scandals is that?
But each day already feels like a fucking eternity 😫0 -
I am not interested in your subjective adding of enough tactical voting as necessary to get the seats result you want, only what the poll actually shows (and as stated that is with RefUK on an absurdly high 8% at the Tories' expense).Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not least as tactical voting is much lower v Sunak than it was v Boris and Truss0 -
Kemi isn’t seriously in the running? Do you want to lose?0
-
Ironically, 4th place wins them a place in Europe.Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase3 -
Going to admit you were wrong earlier?HYUFD said:
I am not interested in your subjective adding of enough tactical voting as necessary to get the seats result you want, only what the poll actually shows (and as stated that is with RefUK on an absurdly high 8% at the Tories' expense).Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not least as tactical voting is much lower v Sunak than it was v Boris and Truss
The Tories are still 3rd in seats on that PP poll even with no tactical voting.
PS you had RefUK on 8% too in your projection based on last week's data.0 -
Perhaps, the Tories really will be on less than 100 seats. We think it impossible but perhaps it is not0
-
It's imperfect, of course, but the next election has the potential to cast some light on the question: Would Labour have won in 1997 with John Smith as leader, and by how much?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Can't remember who pointed it out, but have been musing on the possibility that we are all just missing the impending Tory wipeout simply because Starmer isn't Blair.
The more I consider it, the more it has logic to it.
If Starmer can bury an exhausted and discredited Tory government, mired in sleaze, under a landslide election defeat, then it suggests Smith would have done so too. But if Starmer only scrapes a win, or becomes a minority PM, then it suggests the Blair factor made the difference.0 -
You are going to need better luck than anyone ever has had on this forum to achieve that admission !!!!!!Benpointer said:
Going to admit you were wrong earlier?HYUFD said:
I am not interested in your subjective adding of enough tactical voting as necessary to get the seats result you want, only what the poll actually shows (and as stated that is with RefUK on an absurdly high 8% at the Tories' expense).Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not least as tactical voting is much lower v Sunak than it was v Boris and Truss3 -
Does that mean the last Tory poll lead was so long ago it was before People Polling existed?Sunil_Prasannan said:
People Polling have been around since last August.FrankBooth said:People polling is a new pollster and something of an outlier. I wouldn't be getting to excited/despondent.
I don't think GB News get upset about these findings - or Goodwin either. The populist right isn't too keen on the Tories nowadays.
Truly a different era...0 -
The way I look at it two years is enough time for the Tories to turn a possible 1997-level defeat into an extinction event.MoonRabbit said:
729 sleeps till bin day. 🤗Benpointer said:
Latest date for the next election is 24 January 2025, so 730 days max!nico679 said:
Thanks . Counting the days till we’re rid of the Tories !CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Welcome back @nico679
How many scandals is that?
But each day already feels like a fucking eternity 😫
At the same time, they aren't really able to actually 'do' much governing, and maybe the country will be better for it.0 -
Blair only had to win a few seats to get a majority, Starmer starts a long way behind. Even a tight Labour majority requires a Blair like swing.LostPassword said:.
It's imperfect, of course, but the next election has the potential to cast some light on the question: Would Labour have won in 1997 with John Smith as leader, and by how much?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Can't remember who pointed it out, but have been musing on the possibility that we are all just missing the impending Tory wipeout simply because Starmer isn't Blair.
The more I consider it, the more it has logic to it.
If Starmer can bury an exhausted and discredited Tory government, mired in sleaze, under a landslide election defeat, then it suggests Smith would have done so too. But if Starmer only scrapes a win, or becomes a minority PM, then it suggests the Blair factor made the difference.
In 1997 Blair gained 146 seats, but that same seat gain would only give Starmer a majority of twenty-ish.
1 -
On the latest deltapoll they aren't even heading for a 1997 result but a 2005 result (in fact slightly more seats) let alone an 'extinction' result. Other polls just give RefUK unrealistically high results at Tory expenseBenpointer said:
The way I look at it two years is enough time for the Tories to turn a possible 1997-level defeat into an extinction event.MoonRabbit said:
729 sleeps till bin day. 🤗Benpointer said:
Latest date for the next election is 24 January 2025, so 730 days max!nico679 said:
Thanks . Counting the days till we’re rid of the Tories !CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Welcome back @nico679
How many scandals is that?
But each day already feels like a fucking eternity 😫
At the same time, they aren't really able to actually 'do' much governing, and maybe the country will be better for it.0 -
Yes you were, completely and utterly wrong.Benpointer said:
Going to admit you were wrong earlier?HYUFD said:
I am not interested in your subjective adding of enough tactical voting as necessary to get the seats result you want, only what the poll actually shows (and as stated that is with RefUK on an absurdly high 8% at the Tories' expense).Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not least as tactical voting is much lower v Sunak than it was v Boris and Truss
The Tories are still 3rd in seats on that PP poll even with no tactical voting.
PS you had RefUK on 8% too in your projection based on last week's data.
You manipulated actual poll figures and deliberately lied to suggest they showed the Tories not being the official opposition, when in fact that was solely with you adding tactical voting figures to give the result you wanted0 -
We place too much store by historical precedents; it's only natural, guess.Foxy said:
Blair only had to win a few seats to get a majority, Starmer starts a long way behind. Even a tight Labour majority requires a Blair like swing.LostPassword said:.
It's imperfect, of course, but the next election has the potential to cast some light on the question: Would Labour have won in 1997 with John Smith as leader, and by how much?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Can't remember who pointed it out, but have been musing on the possibility that we are all just missing the impending Tory wipeout simply because Starmer isn't Blair.
The more I consider it, the more it has logic to it.
If Starmer can bury an exhausted and discredited Tory government, mired in sleaze, under a landslide election defeat, then it suggests Smith would have done so too. But if Starmer only scrapes a win, or becomes a minority PM, then it suggests the Blair factor made the difference.
In 1997 Blair gained 146 seats, but that same seat gain would only give Starmer a majority of twenty-ish.
However, there are plenty of precedents for the 'unprecedented' happening, so we should not be surprised that it does occur from time to time.0 -
I'm in two minds with that argument. On the one hand Starmer has to change more people's minds to win a majority, and that does make the task more difficult, but on the other, no-one has cast any votes for the next election yet. So all sides start on zero.Foxy said:
Blair only had to win a few seats to get a majority, Starmer starts a long way behind. Even a tight Labour majority requires a Blair like swing.LostPassword said:.
It's imperfect, of course, but the next election has the potential to cast some light on the question: Would Labour have won in 1997 with John Smith as leader, and by how much?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Can't remember who pointed it out, but have been musing on the possibility that we are all just missing the impending Tory wipeout simply because Starmer isn't Blair.
The more I consider it, the more it has logic to it.
If Starmer can bury an exhausted and discredited Tory government, mired in sleaze, under a landslide election defeat, then it suggests Smith would have done so too. But if Starmer only scrapes a win, or becomes a minority PM, then it suggests the Blair factor made the difference.
In 1997 Blair gained 146 seats, but that same seat gain would only give Starmer a majority of twenty-ish.0 -
Apparently work shy Brits are put to shame by Andy Murray (telegraph).
I assume they everyone at the Torygraph gets up at 6:40 to be slapped, kicked and called a paedophile for minimum wage like TA's do each day?
Then get moaned at for their holidays and pensions?
Thought not.2 -
On topic, why Mike's assertion that this is like 1996/7 and that the "Don't knows" won't matter is wrong.
Back in 96/7, Blair was trusted (wrongly). Bright new shiny thing vs a dull Major. Fitted in well with the Zeitgeist of 'Cool Britannia'.
Starmer is none of these things. Moreover, it's clear - and you only have to look at the comments from the likes of @Casino_Royale who is not a 100% Tory till I die voter - that Starmer's lack of transparency / comments he has made so far worries natural Tory voters.
Remember, Blair got fewer votes than Major. He won so well because he persuaded many people it was 'safe' not to vote Tory. I don't think Starmer has that - this is going to be very close.0 -
Not very long then.Sunil_Prasannan said:
People Polling have been around since last August.FrankBooth said:People polling is a new pollster and something of an outlier. I wouldn't be getting to excited/despondent.
I don't think GB News get upset about these findings - or Goodwin either. The populist right isn't too keen on the Tories nowadays.0 -
No. I did not. I only added tactical voting in response to Moonrabbit's prompting.HYUFD said:
Yes you were, completely and utterly wrong.Benpointer said:
Going to admit you were wrong earlier?HYUFD said:
I am not interested in your subjective adding of enough tactical voting as necessary to get the seats result you want, only what the poll actually shows (and as stated that is with RefUK on an absurdly high 8% at the Tories' expense).Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not least as tactical voting is much lower v Sunak than it was v Boris and Truss
The Tories are still 3rd in seats on that PP poll even with no tactical voting.
PS you had RefUK on 8% too in your projection based on last week's data.
You manipulated actual poll figures and deliberately lied to suggest they showed the Tories not being the official opposition, when in fact that was solely with you adding tactical voting figures to give the result you wanted
Look here it is with no tactical voting again, Tories on 21 seats:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=5&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=0&TVLAB=0&TVLIB=0&TVReform=0&TVGreen=0&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase0 -
Boris J has been setting the global policy agenda this week. I take little notice of “the news” these days and sometimes forget who is the de jure PM. Presumably I’m not alone. Next PM market etc…0
-
It's also possible they turn it around - 18 months ago we were all speculating whether Starmer could survive a loss in B&SBenpointer said:
The way I look at it two years is enough time for the Tories to turn a possible 1997-level defeat into an extinction event.MoonRabbit said:
729 sleeps till bin day. 🤗Benpointer said:
Latest date for the next election is 24 January 2025, so 730 days max!nico679 said:
Thanks . Counting the days till we’re rid of the Tories !CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Welcome back @nico679
How many scandals is that?
But each day already feels like a fucking eternity 😫
At the same time, they aren't really able to actually 'do' much governing, and maybe the country will be better for it.0 -
That is another Starmer isn't Blair therefore comment.TheKitchenCabinet said:On topic, why Mike's assertion that this is like 1996/7 and that the "Don't knows" won't matter is wrong.
Back in 96/7, Blair was trusted (wrongly). Bright new shiny thing vs a dull Major. Fitted in well with the Zeitgeist of 'Cool Britannia'.
Starmer is none of these things. Moreover, it's clear - and you only have to look at the comments from the likes of @Casino_Royale who is not a 100% Tory till I die voter - that Starmer's lack of transparency / comments he has made so far worries natural Tory voters.
Remember, Blair got fewer votes than Major. He won so well because he persuaded many people it was 'safe' not to vote Tory. I don't think Starmer has that - this is going to be very close.
Maybe Blair didn't matter very much?
Perhaps the country was just sick of the Tories, so even Tories didn't vote for them?
It's at least as much of a possibility.1 -
It's pitched at their (retired) readership.dixiedean said:Apparently work shy Brits are put to shame by Andy Murray (telegraph).
I assume they everyone at the Torygraph gets up at 6:40 to be slapped, kicked and called a paedophile for minimum wage like TA's do each day?
Then get moaned at for their holidays and pensions?
Thought not.0 -
But that doesn't make sense - McGonigal was a lead figure in the Trump-Russia probe and trying to connect the two together. If both were 'working' with Russia, that makes no sense.Gardenwalker said:This is a great thread by Tim Snyder on Russian influence in the US and the role of McGonigal.
https://twitter.com/timothydsnyder/status/1618309363084718080?s=46&t=dFldXlu0RaqXftllms6bXA
Almost certainly true that similar antics were at play for Brexit.
0 -
It doesn't really make a difference with regard to any imminent hostilities as it still takes years to get trainees from AJT (Hawk) to CR (Combat Ready and judged to be marginally more dangerous to the enemy than our side) on a front line squadron.Big_G_NorthWales said:Bad timing
RAF grounds its entire fast jet trainer aircraft due to a problem with its engines
The RAF/RN have over 300 trainee pilots 'holding' at the moment. That is, doing made up non flying jobs, while they wait for training slots. The result of all this is that fast jet pilots are now starting their operational careers at age 28-30 which isn't ideal.1 -
Iconic postHYUFD said:
Yes you were, completely and utterly wrong.Benpointer said:
Going to admit you were wrong earlier?HYUFD said:
I am not interested in your subjective adding of enough tactical voting as necessary to get the seats result you want, only what the poll actually shows (and as stated that is with RefUK on an absurdly high 8% at the Tories' expense).Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not least as tactical voting is much lower v Sunak than it was v Boris and Truss
The Tories are still 3rd in seats on that PP poll even with no tactical voting.
PS you had RefUK on 8% too in your projection based on last week's data.
You manipulated actual poll figures and deliberately lied to suggest they showed the Tories not being the official opposition, when in fact that was solely with you adding tactical voting figures to give the result you wanted1 -
Anyone seen HYUFD? I do hope he's ok after being so spectacularly wrong this evening.Benpointer said:
No. I did not. I only added tactical voting in response to Moonrabbit's prompting.HYUFD said:
Yes you were, completely and utterly wrong.Benpointer said:
Going to admit you were wrong earlier?HYUFD said:
I am not interested in your subjective adding of enough tactical voting as necessary to get the seats result you want, only what the poll actually shows (and as stated that is with RefUK on an absurdly high 8% at the Tories' expense).Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not least as tactical voting is much lower v Sunak than it was v Boris and Truss
The Tories are still 3rd in seats on that PP poll even with no tactical voting.
PS you had RefUK on 8% too in your projection based on last week's data.
You manipulated actual poll figures and deliberately lied to suggest they showed the Tories not being the official opposition, when in fact that was solely with you adding tactical voting figures to give the result you wanted
Look here it is with no tactical voting again, Tories on 21 seats:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=5&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=0&TVLAB=0&TVLIB=0&TVReform=0&TVGreen=0&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase0 -
One year, one month and 19 days since the last Tory poll lead...LostPassword said:
Does that mean the last Tory poll lead was so long ago it was before People Polling existed?Sunil_Prasannan said:
People Polling have been around since last August.FrankBooth said:People polling is a new pollster and something of an outlier. I wouldn't be getting to excited/despondent.
I don't think GB News get upset about these findings - or Goodwin either. The populist right isn't too keen on the Tories nowadays.
Truly a different era...1 -
Possibly. But my main point is that people are motivated more strongly by fear than reward. Blair didn't scare people - that's why the Demon Eyes poster didn't work. Judging from the comments here from Tory-leaning, but not diehard, types, Starmer clearly does. He is going to come under a lot more scrutiny as we get closer to the election and, quite frankly, his performance so far raises questions as to whether he can withstand that.dixiedean said:
That is another Starmer isn't Blair therefore comment.TheKitchenCabinet said:On topic, why Mike's assertion that this is like 1996/7 and that the "Don't knows" won't matter is wrong.
Back in 96/7, Blair was trusted (wrongly). Bright new shiny thing vs a dull Major. Fitted in well with the Zeitgeist of 'Cool Britannia'.
Starmer is none of these things. Moreover, it's clear - and you only have to look at the comments from the likes of @Casino_Royale who is not a 100% Tory till I die voter - that Starmer's lack of transparency / comments he has made so far worries natural Tory voters.
Remember, Blair got fewer votes than Major. He won so well because he persuaded many people it was 'safe' not to vote Tory. I don't think Starmer has that - this is going to be very close.
Maybe Blair didn't matter very much?
Perhaps the country was just sick of the Tories, so even Tories didn't vote for them?
It's at least as much of a possibility.0 -
What’s likely wrong is thinking most that reform vote go’s Tory on Election Day - of brexiteers out there feeling like they’ve been had voting Tory in 2019 - deserting Farage for Boris - 8% is probably on the low side.HYUFD said:
Yes you were, completely and utterly wrong.Benpointer said:
Going to admit you were wrong earlier?HYUFD said:
I am not interested in your subjective adding of enough tactical voting as necessary to get the seats result you want, only what the poll actually shows (and as stated that is with RefUK on an absurdly high 8% at the Tories' expense).Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not least as tactical voting is much lower v Sunak than it was v Boris and Truss
The Tories are still 3rd in seats on that PP poll even with no tactical voting.
PS you had RefUK on 8% too in your projection based on last week's data.
You manipulated actual poll figures and deliberately lied to suggest they showed the Tories not being the official opposition, when in fact that was solely with you adding tactical voting figures to give the result you wanted0 -
What on earth is going on with papers tonight? The mirror and express have put their headers on wrong front page. Telegraph has a negative Brexit story? The times a dress you wear up in the air. And Star reckons we get to Mars in 45 days.0
-
John Smith would have won a landslide0
-
Definitely a keeper.Gallowgate said:
Iconic postHYUFD said:
Yes you were, completely and utterly wrong.Benpointer said:
Going to admit you were wrong earlier?HYUFD said:
I am not interested in your subjective adding of enough tactical voting as necessary to get the seats result you want, only what the poll actually shows (and as stated that is with RefUK on an absurdly high 8% at the Tories' expense).Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not least as tactical voting is much lower v Sunak than it was v Boris and Truss
The Tories are still 3rd in seats on that PP poll even with no tactical voting.
PS you had RefUK on 8% too in your projection based on last week's data.
You manipulated actual poll figures and deliberately lied to suggest they showed the Tories not being the official opposition, when in fact that was solely with you adding tactical voting figures to give the result you wanted0 -
On the other hand. John Major was widely respected as a PM of integrity doing his best under difficult circumstances.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Possibly. But my main point is that people are motivated more strongly by fear than reward. Blair didn't scare people - that's why the Demon Eyes poster didn't work. Judging from the comments here from Tory-leaning, but not diehard, types, Starmer clearly does. He is going to come under a lot more scrutiny as we get closer to the election and, quite frankly, his performance so far raises questions as to whether he can withstand that.dixiedean said:
That is another Starmer isn't Blair therefore comment.TheKitchenCabinet said:On topic, why Mike's assertion that this is like 1996/7 and that the "Don't knows" won't matter is wrong.
Back in 96/7, Blair was trusted (wrongly). Bright new shiny thing vs a dull Major. Fitted in well with the Zeitgeist of 'Cool Britannia'.
Starmer is none of these things. Moreover, it's clear - and you only have to look at the comments from the likes of @Casino_Royale who is not a 100% Tory till I die voter - that Starmer's lack of transparency / comments he has made so far worries natural Tory voters.
Remember, Blair got fewer votes than Major. He won so well because he persuaded many people it was 'safe' not to vote Tory. I don't think Starmer has that - this is going to be very close.
Maybe Blair didn't matter very much?
Perhaps the country was just sick of the Tories, so even Tories didn't vote for them?
It's at least as much of a possibility.
The past four Tory PM's aren't.
Starmer scares people on here?
Jesus. You lot ought to do a week's work in a Pupil Referral Unit.2 -
I didn't see the new poll but even that sees the Tory share unchanged from their last poll, all the ridiculous Goodwin's poll has done is changed the Green score in Labour's favour while apparently we are still supposed to believe RefUK are on 7%?MoonRabbit said:
What’s likely wrong is thinking most that reform vote go’s Tory on Election Day - of brexiteers out there feeling like they’ve been had voting Tory in 2019 - deserting Farage for Boris - 8% is probably on the low side.HYUFD said:
Yes you were, completely and utterly wrong.Benpointer said:
Going to admit you were wrong earlier?HYUFD said:
I am not interested in your subjective adding of enough tactical voting as necessary to get the seats result you want, only what the poll actually shows (and as stated that is with RefUK on an absurdly high 8% at the Tories' expense).Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not least as tactical voting is much lower v Sunak than it was v Boris and Truss
The Tories are still 3rd in seats on that PP poll even with no tactical voting.
PS you had RefUK on 8% too in your projection based on last week's data.
You manipulated actual poll figures and deliberately lied to suggest they showed the Tories not being the official opposition, when in fact that was solely with you adding tactical voting figures to give the result you wanted
Meanwhile the much more reputable Deltapoll has the Tories on 30% with RefUK on just 4%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary0 -
I think so too.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:John Smith would have won a landslide
Not 179.
But it would have been sizeable.0 -
Great choice of Muse song.MoonRabbit said:
“ Muse just tosh”Gardenwalker said:
You should do a thread header on this. The evolution of these tribes is worth subjecting to Bordieu-style class analysis too.EPG said:Other trajectories: the guitar band people who went from Radiohead en masse to Muse if they liked noodling on instruments themselves, and the ones who just listened went to those 2000s guitar bands from the magazines, even the dull ones you've forgotten like Jet. The hard kids who were into happy hardcore (not sure about this; annoying aggressive 90s dance music, not trance) switched to Eminem and forced his various LPs and "2001" onto the rest of us. Everyone was either openly or secretly paying attention to Britney Spears releases.
Personally I was into guitar bands at the time, including Radiohead, but I always thought Muse were just tosh. That whole “progressive” turn is unlistenable, actually worse than the original much-derided progressive rock.
Again, let’s let PBers decide for themselves
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhci-MG4DNE0 -
John Major of course the 3rd longest serving Tory PM since 1940 after Thatcher and Churchill.dixiedean said:
On the other hand. John Major was widely respected as a PM of integrity doing his best under difficult circumstances.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Possibly. But my main point is that people are motivated more strongly by fear than reward. Blair didn't scare people - that's why the Demon Eyes poster didn't work. Judging from the comments here from Tory-leaning, but not diehard, types, Starmer clearly does. He is going to come under a lot more scrutiny as we get closer to the election and, quite frankly, his performance so far raises questions as to whether he can withstand that.dixiedean said:
That is another Starmer isn't Blair therefore comment.TheKitchenCabinet said:On topic, why Mike's assertion that this is like 1996/7 and that the "Don't knows" won't matter is wrong.
Back in 96/7, Blair was trusted (wrongly). Bright new shiny thing vs a dull Major. Fitted in well with the Zeitgeist of 'Cool Britannia'.
Starmer is none of these things. Moreover, it's clear - and you only have to look at the comments from the likes of @Casino_Royale who is not a 100% Tory till I die voter - that Starmer's lack of transparency / comments he has made so far worries natural Tory voters.
Remember, Blair got fewer votes than Major. He won so well because he persuaded many people it was 'safe' not to vote Tory. I don't think Starmer has that - this is going to be very close.
Maybe Blair didn't matter very much?
Perhaps the country was just sick of the Tories, so even Tories didn't vote for them?
It's at least as much of a possibility.
The past four Tory PM's aren't.
Starmer scares people on here?
Jesus. You lot ought to do a week's work in a Pupil Referral Unit.
Rated now higher than Blair by some too given he left low inflation and a growing economy and reasonably balanced budget and won the Gulf War and Blair's Iraq War was rather less successful0 -
He. Has. Got. To. Go.HYUFD said:
I didn't see the new poll but even that sees the Tory share unchanged from their last poll, all the ridiculous Goodwin's poll has done is changed the Green score in Labour's favour while apparently we are still supposed to believe RefUK are on 7%?MoonRabbit said:
What’s likely wrong is thinking most that reform vote go’s Tory on Election Day - of brexiteers out there feeling like they’ve been had voting Tory in 2019 - deserting Farage for Boris - 8% is probably on the low side.HYUFD said:
Yes you were, completely and utterly wrong.Benpointer said:
Going to admit you were wrong earlier?HYUFD said:
I am not interested in your subjective adding of enough tactical voting as necessary to get the seats result you want, only what the poll actually shows (and as stated that is with RefUK on an absurdly high 8% at the Tories' expense).Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not least as tactical voting is much lower v Sunak than it was v Boris and Truss
The Tories are still 3rd in seats on that PP poll even with no tactical voting.
PS you had RefUK on 8% too in your projection based on last week's data.
You manipulated actual poll figures and deliberately lied to suggest they showed the Tories not being the official opposition, when in fact that was solely with you adding tactical voting figures to give the result you wanted
Meanwhile the much more reputable Deltapoll has the Tories on 30% with RefUK on just 4%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary0 -
Why? Who would do any better? Even with PP the Tories are still polling better than they were with Truss, Goodwin had the Tories down to just 14% and 0 seats when Truss was PMLuckyguy1983 said:
He. Has. Got. To. Go.HYUFD said:
I didn't see the new poll but even that sees the Tory share unchanged from their last poll, all the ridiculous Goodwin's poll has done is changed the Green score in Labour's favour while apparently we are still supposed to believe RefUK are on 7%?MoonRabbit said:
What’s likely wrong is thinking most that reform vote go’s Tory on Election Day - of brexiteers out there feeling like they’ve been had voting Tory in 2019 - deserting Farage for Boris - 8% is probably on the low side.HYUFD said:
Yes you were, completely and utterly wrong.Benpointer said:
Going to admit you were wrong earlier?HYUFD said:
I am not interested in your subjective adding of enough tactical voting as necessary to get the seats result you want, only what the poll actually shows (and as stated that is with RefUK on an absurdly high 8% at the Tories' expense).Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not least as tactical voting is much lower v Sunak than it was v Boris and Truss
The Tories are still 3rd in seats on that PP poll even with no tactical voting.
PS you had RefUK on 8% too in your projection based on last week's data.
You manipulated actual poll figures and deliberately lied to suggest they showed the Tories not being the official opposition, when in fact that was solely with you adding tactical voting figures to give the result you wanted
Meanwhile the much more reputable Deltapoll has the Tories on 30% with RefUK on just 4%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=14&LAB=53&LIB=11&Reform=5&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase0 -
Here's a summary scientfic paper on water quality changes in the UK:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969722041110
It's quite long, and probably best evaluated by specialists in the subject -- which I am not.
"Highlights
•
Water quality in British rivers has changed substantially since the industrial revolution.
•
Between 1760 and 1940 point-source pressures are likely to have increased.
•
From 1940 pressures from nutrients and pesticides have increased in many areas.
•
The current picture is mixed: urban quality has improved, rural quality has declined.
•
Diffuse-source pollution and novel pollutants remain as significant water quality threats."
Make of that what you will. One way to approach the subject would be to look for data on the changes in water-born diseases.0 -
Nah, let HYUFD stay - he adds comedy value.Luckyguy1983 said:
He. Has. Got. To. Go.HYUFD said:
I didn't see the new poll but even that sees the Tory share unchanged from their last poll, all the ridiculous Goodwin's poll has done is changed the Green score in Labour's favour while apparently we are still supposed to believe RefUK are on 7%?MoonRabbit said:
What’s likely wrong is thinking most that reform vote go’s Tory on Election Day - of brexiteers out there feeling like they’ve been had voting Tory in 2019 - deserting Farage for Boris - 8% is probably on the low side.HYUFD said:
Yes you were, completely and utterly wrong.Benpointer said:
Going to admit you were wrong earlier?HYUFD said:
I am not interested in your subjective adding of enough tactical voting as necessary to get the seats result you want, only what the poll actually shows (and as stated that is with RefUK on an absurdly high 8% at the Tories' expense).Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not least as tactical voting is much lower v Sunak than it was v Boris and Truss
The Tories are still 3rd in seats on that PP poll even with no tactical voting.
PS you had RefUK on 8% too in your projection based on last week's data.
You manipulated actual poll figures and deliberately lied to suggest they showed the Tories not being the official opposition, when in fact that was solely with you adding tactical voting figures to give the result you wanted
Meanwhile the much more reputable Deltapoll has the Tories on 30% with RefUK on just 4%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary0 -
Peston poll this evening has Starmer rated fractionally below Labour overall but Sunak rated well above the Conservative Party overall
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1618387685152022529?s=20&t=EZSutcHgx0Kv0-tH3m4pyw0 -
And according to the detail, Sunak is in definite decline, and the gap between him and Keir is getting larger and larger.HYUFD said:Peston poll this evening has Starmer rated fractionally below Labour overall but Sunak rated well above the Conservative Party overall
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1618387685152022529?s=20&t=EZSutcHgx0Kv0-tH3m4pyw
Only the criminally insane now support the Tories.0 -
He’s about as funny as herpes.Benpointer said:
Nah, let HYUFD stay - he adds comedy value.Luckyguy1983 said:
He. Has. Got. To. Go.HYUFD said:
I didn't see the new poll but even that sees the Tory share unchanged from their last poll, all the ridiculous Goodwin's poll has done is changed the Green score in Labour's favour while apparently we are still supposed to believe RefUK are on 7%?MoonRabbit said:
What’s likely wrong is thinking most that reform vote go’s Tory on Election Day - of brexiteers out there feeling like they’ve been had voting Tory in 2019 - deserting Farage for Boris - 8% is probably on the low side.HYUFD said:
Yes you were, completely and utterly wrong.Benpointer said:
Going to admit you were wrong earlier?HYUFD said:
I am not interested in your subjective adding of enough tactical voting as necessary to get the seats result you want, only what the poll actually shows (and as stated that is with RefUK on an absurdly high 8% at the Tories' expense).Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not least as tactical voting is much lower v Sunak than it was v Boris and Truss
The Tories are still 3rd in seats on that PP poll even with no tactical voting.
PS you had RefUK on 8% too in your projection based on last week's data.
You manipulated actual poll figures and deliberately lied to suggest they showed the Tories not being the official opposition, when in fact that was solely with you adding tactical voting figures to give the result you wanted
Meanwhile the much more reputable Deltapoll has the Tories on 30% with RefUK on just 4%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
It’s like arguing with a dot matrix printer.1 -
Shown in its unspun originality, it yells Sunak way below Starmer and for direction he’s going I’ll get my marble out, yep that’s some downhill slope.HYUFD said:Peston poll this evening has Starmer rated fractionally below Labour overall but Sunak rated well above the Conservative Party overall
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1618387685152022529?s=20&t=EZSutcHgx0Kv0-tH3m4pyw
Same time shows Tory’s a billion country miles behind Labour.
Your point being?
0 -
What's the difference between herpes and love?Gardenwalker said:
He’s about as funny as herpes.Benpointer said:
Nah, let HYUFD stay - he adds comedy value.Luckyguy1983 said:
He. Has. Got. To. Go.HYUFD said:
I didn't see the new poll but even that sees the Tory share unchanged from their last poll, all the ridiculous Goodwin's poll has done is changed the Green score in Labour's favour while apparently we are still supposed to believe RefUK are on 7%?MoonRabbit said:
What’s likely wrong is thinking most that reform vote go’s Tory on Election Day - of brexiteers out there feeling like they’ve been had voting Tory in 2019 - deserting Farage for Boris - 8% is probably on the low side.HYUFD said:
Yes you were, completely and utterly wrong.Benpointer said:
Going to admit you were wrong earlier?HYUFD said:
I am not interested in your subjective adding of enough tactical voting as necessary to get the seats result you want, only what the poll actually shows (and as stated that is with RefUK on an absurdly high 8% at the Tories' expense).Benpointer said:
Tories 4th (fourth!) if you add in tactical voting to this week's PeoplePolling numbers ;-)MoonRabbit said:
Wait! Did you calculate tactical voting in the 76, HY?dixiedean said:
Truly gladdens my heart to see 76 Tory seats spun as a positive somehow.HYUFD said:
Yes they would, even that poll gave the Tories 76 seats on the new boundaries and clearly the main opposition (even with RefUK on 8%)Benpointer said:
The Tories won't become the Opposition based on that latest PeoplePolling poll.nico679 said:Sunak desperately needs a Ukraine victory parade and state visit from Zelensky That might scrape back a few points .
No one in their right mind can seriously argue that the Tories don’t need time in opposition .
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202301_GBN_W3_full.pdf#subsection*.12
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=50&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=20&TVLAB=20&TVLIB=20&TVReform=20&TVGreen=20&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not least as tactical voting is much lower v Sunak than it was v Boris and Truss
The Tories are still 3rd in seats on that PP poll even with no tactical voting.
PS you had RefUK on 8% too in your projection based on last week's data.
You manipulated actual poll figures and deliberately lied to suggest they showed the Tories not being the official opposition, when in fact that was solely with you adding tactical voting figures to give the result you wanted
Meanwhile the much more reputable Deltapoll has the Tories on 30% with RefUK on just 4%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
It’s like arguing with a dot matrix printer.
Herpes is forever.0 -
HELL NO! Not semi-sane Democrats anyway.Benpointer said:
Dems won't be unhappy, they'd like to see him win the GOP nomination now.Big_G_NorthWales said:Facebook and Instagram lift the ban on Trump
0 -
NEW THREADSeaShantyIrish2 said:
HELL NO! Not semi-sane Democrats anyway.Benpointer said:
Dems won't be unhappy, they'd like to see him win the GOP nomination now.Big_G_NorthWales said:Facebook and Instagram lift the ban on Trump
0 -
And not all of them. Pretty sure Richard Burgon is still supporting Labour.Gardenwalker said:
And according to the detail, Sunak is in definite decline, and the gap between him and Keir is getting larger and larger.HYUFD said:Peston poll this evening has Starmer rated fractionally below Labour overall but Sunak rated well above the Conservative Party overall
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1618387685152022529?s=20&t=EZSutcHgx0Kv0-tH3m4pyw
Only the criminally insane now support the Tories.1
