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SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited October 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Clegg set to announce his departure today?

It is worth checking out the next Lib Dem Leader/Lib Dem leader at the General Election markets Take the 6/1 and 12/1  on Vince Cable, Tim Farron and Danny Alexander

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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    First!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    He does seem very calm......like a man who knows his future is in his own hands, not the voters.....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nick Clegg now at 1/5 to lead the party into the next election and 1/2 not to resign today with Paddy Power.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    John Rentoul retweeted


    Jack Blanchard ‏@Jack_Blanchard_ · 5 mins5 minutes ago
    Breaking. Paddy Power slash odds on Paddy Power getting a load of easy publicity from hungover political hacks in Glasgow

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,112
    Bookies market looking better for Clegg last few minutes with Paddy:
    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    Pong said:

    Paddy Power is being silly. They don't know anything that we don't know.

    5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.

    Having reflected, I've doubled down, both by betting No on this bet and on betting at 1/3 that Nick Clegg will remain to the next election.

    I have a nasty feeling I'm going to look very silly very shortly.
    How much did Paddy let you have on both ?

    £11.72 for me on the "No", and I could have had £141 on the 1-3.
    About the same on No and about £70 on the 1/3.
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Slackbladder, possibly as Lib Dem leader, perhaps not as deputy PM. The odds have tumbled to below evens.

    WILL NICK CLEGG ANNOUNCE HIS RESIGNATION TODAY?

    No @ 1-2
    Yes @ 6-4

    WILL NICK CLEGG LEAD LIB DEMS INTO NEXT GENERAL ELECTION?

    Singles Only. Applies to the party's leader on the date of the next general election.
    Yes 1/5
    No 3/1

    @Antifrank out the woods ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    edited October 2014
    antifrank said:

    Nick Clegg now at 1/5 to lead the party into the next election and 1/2 not to resign today with Paddy Power.

    Do you have a link to that market please?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Alternatively: Jack Blanchard of the Daily Mirror tweets: Breaking. Paddy Power slash odds on Paddy Power getting a load of easy publicity from hungover political hacks in Glasgow
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,112
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    Nick Clegg now at 1/5 to lead the party into the next election and 1/2 not to resign today with Paddy Power.

    Do you have a link to that market please?
    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1298093

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1928676
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    Bookies market looking better for Clegg last few minutes with Paddy:

    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    Pong said:

    Paddy Power is being silly. They don't know anything that we don't know.

    5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.

    Having reflected, I've doubled down, both by betting No on this bet and on betting at 1/3 that Nick Clegg will remain to the next election.

    I have a nasty feeling I'm going to look very silly very shortly.
    How much did Paddy let you have on both ?

    £11.72 for me on the "No", and I could have had £141 on the 1-3.
    About the same on No and about £70 on the 1/3.
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Slackbladder, possibly as Lib Dem leader, perhaps not as deputy PM. The odds have tumbled to below evens.

    WILL NICK CLEGG ANNOUNCE HIS RESIGNATION TODAY?

    No @ 1-2
    Yes @ 6-4

    WILL NICK CLEGG LEAD LIB DEMS INTO NEXT GENERAL ELECTION?

    Singles Only. Applies to the party's leader on the date of the next general election.
    Yes 1/5
    No 3/1

    @Antifrank out the woods ?
    I'd like to say that it's not the money, it's the ego. But the money would be a sore point too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,112
    Paddy pull the resignation market.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    This is all just a ruse to make us all watch his speech isn't it?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    antifrank said:

    John Rentoul retweeted


    Jack Blanchard ‏@Jack_Blanchard_ · 5 mins5 minutes ago
    Breaking. Paddy Power slash odds on Paddy Power getting a load of easy publicity from hungover political hacks in Glasgow

    Yup ^
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,112
    I reckon he doesn't announce his resignation.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Pulpstar said:

    Paddy pull the resignation market.

    Cheers for the links.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Hope you all got on that bet @ 5/6

    That was easy money :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    FPT

    Mike on holiday. Check.

    Mike betting on Clegg quitting. Check.

    It is happening.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,112
    Pong said:

    Hope you all got on that bet @ 5/6

    That was easy money :)

    4-6 and only £11 but every little counts ^_~
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Paddy Power you basta*ds, getting us all excited.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Christmas comes early for the Blues if Clegg goes, especially if Farron takes it. Can't see it myself.

    How much of this has been driven by Dan Hodges' article and a runaway rumour mill? All of it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,112
    Slackbladder said:

    Paddy Power you basta*ds, getting us all excited.

    Keep calm and take Paddy's cash.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,112
    Anorak said:

    Christmas comes early for the Blues if Clegg goes, especially if Farron takes it. Can't see it myself.

    How much of this has been driven by Dan Hodges' article and a runaway rumour mill? All of it?

    It would be a gift if he went.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    As a final point on this subject, I've never thought very much of Nick Clegg, but he has one opportunity to redeem himself in my eyes, which is to see his way to lead his party all the way to the next general election.

    What he does after that, I'm less fussed about.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Whether he's going or not Clegg has found a way of generating lots of interest in his speech

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    If there was LD leadership election before GE2015 then an existing minister would surely get it - thus screwing Farron
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Btw, am I the only one who finds ladbrokes' website utterly hopeless?

    Is there a way to change it back to the old site format?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,615
    Pong said:

    Hope you all got on that bet @ 5/6

    That was easy money :)

    I was about to write "Typical bookie only offering one side of the market" when I saw the 5/6 on Clegg to go..

    Couldn't believe it when I saw they were offering both sides!!

    Didn't back it though, cant get on w Paddy
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I think Clegg needs to go (much as I like him) though I would not object to him remaining in the cabinet.

    The LibDems need a fresh face for a fresh start.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Pong said:

    Btw, am I the only one who finds ladbrokes' website utterly hopeless?

    Is there a way to change it back to the old site format?

    No, I end up using their app, their website last week kept on crashing my browsers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,112
    antifrank said:

    As a final point on this subject, I've never thought very much of Nick Clegg, but he has one opportunity to redeem himself in my eyes, which is to see his way to lead his party all the way to the next general election.

    What he does after that, I'm less fussed about.

    Thanks - that post has given me my biggest laugh of the morning.

    I hope Dave, George, Ed and Ed remain similarly committed to their leadership tasks too.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pong said:

    Btw, am I the only one who finds ladbrokes' website utterly hopeless?

    Is there a way to change it back to the old site format?

    No and no.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pong said:

    Btw, am I the only one who finds ladbrokes' website utterly hopeless?

    Is there a way to change it back to the old site format?

    No, I end up using their app, their website last week kept on crashing my browsers.
    I find it works better with Dolphin than Chrome. It kept freezing on Chrome even on my galaxy S5.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,961
    I reckon he will announce his wife is expecting another child. What else could Wintour of Guardian mean by tweeting: "Reckon the Clegger has the best, if not the most political, announcement of the conference season in his speech tomorrow."
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    edited October 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Anorak said:

    Christmas comes early for the Blues if Clegg goes, especially if Farron takes it. Can't see it myself.

    How much of this has been driven by Dan Hodges' article and a runaway rumour mill? All of it?

    It would be a gift if he went.
    Indeed it would, Farron (or Cable etc) tacking to the left would eat into labours (very soft) gains from Lab dem voters.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Whether he's going or not Clegg has found a way of generating lots of interest in his speech

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    If there was LD leadership election before GE2015 then an existing minister would surely get it - thus screwing Farron

    Alexander? Not sure he would win back much support though. Too close to Clegg.

    Ed Davey? Steve Webb? Jo Swinson (long shot)

    Presume Vince is now old news.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    I'm so glad this morning I merely mentioned the 1/16 on Clegg remaining till the election, rather than tipping it.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Anorak said:

    Christmas comes early for the Blues if Clegg goes, especially if Farron takes it. Can't see it myself.

    How much of this has been driven by Dan Hodges' article and a runaway rumour mill? All of it?

    If it were due to Hodges there is one thing you can be sure of -- Nick Clegg's resignation would be a disaster for Ed Miliband.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Our host likes the look of Norman Lamb.

    Vince Cable would be the obvious safe pair of hands though, surely?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    antifrank said:

    Our host likes the look of Norman Lamb.

    Vince Cable would be the obvious safe pair of hands though, surely?

    Isn't Norman Lamb a bit barmey? Said MI5 were after him, or something..
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Anorak said:

    Christmas comes early for the Blues if Clegg goes, especially if Farron takes it. Can't see it myself.

    How much of this has been driven by Dan Hodges' article and a runaway rumour mill? All of it?

    If it were due to Hodges there is one thing you can be sure of -- Nick Clegg's resignation would be a disaster for Ed Miliband.
    To be fair to Dan Hodges. In this case, it actually would.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,615
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Whether he's going or not Clegg has found a way of generating lots of interest in his speech

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    If there was LD leadership election before GE2015 then an existing minister would surely get it - thus screwing Farron

    Alexander? Not sure he would win back much support though. Too close to Clegg.

    Ed Davey? Steve Webb? Jo Swinson (long shot)

    Presume Vince is now old news.
    I like Swinson as next leader.. They need to differentiate themselves, and a female leader would be one way of doing that
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Anorak said:

    Christmas comes early for the Blues if Clegg goes, especially if Farron takes it. Can't see it myself.

    How much of this has been driven by Dan Hodges' article and a runaway rumour mill? All of it?

    If it were due to Hodges there is one thing you can be sure of -- Nick Clegg's resignation would be a disaster for Ed Miliband.
    Mike and I have similar pieces penned along those lines, especially if the Lib Dems go for Farron or Cable.

    Labour's firewall should take a battering.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,112
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm so glad this morning I merely mentioned the 1/16 on Clegg remaining till the election, rather than tipping it.

    Even though I'm not averse to long odds on betting I did think 1-16 looked a tad short.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    antifrank said:

    Our host likes the look of Norman Lamb.

    Vince Cable would be the obvious safe pair of hands though, surely?

    Yes BUT most bookies will be betting on next permanent leader, and Cable is quite old so any coronation plus announcement he will stand down after GE2015, and you might or might not get paid.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Casino_Royale said:

    antifrank said:

    Our host likes the look of Norman Lamb.

    Vince Cable would be the obvious safe pair of hands though, surely?

    Isn't Norman Lamb a bit barmey? Said MI5 were after him, or something..
    That's Norman Baker
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Casino_Royale said:

    antifrank said:

    Our host likes the look of Norman Lamb.

    Vince Cable would be the obvious safe pair of hands though, surely?

    Isn't Norman Lamb a bit barmey? Said MI5 were after him, or something..
    That's Norman Baker, isn't it?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,066
    I'd thought this would be bad for Ed and Labour but on reflection and if Tim Farron won I don't think it would be bad at all. If anyone can make Ed look like a heavyweight it's Tim Farron and a refreshed Lib Dem party attacking from the left can do nothing but good.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm so glad this morning I merely mentioned the 1/16 on Clegg remaining till the election, rather than tipping it.


    Did you mean 16/1 rather than 1/16 but now think it was prophetic?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,112
    isam said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Whether he's going or not Clegg has found a way of generating lots of interest in his speech

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    If there was LD leadership election before GE2015 then an existing minister would surely get it - thus screwing Farron

    Alexander? Not sure he would win back much support though. Too close to Clegg.

    Ed Davey? Steve Webb? Jo Swinson (long shot)

    Presume Vince is now old news.
    I like Swinson as next leader.. They need to differentiate themselves, and a female leader would be one way of doing that
    Swinson is losing her seat one way or another, or I'll be out of pocket.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,345
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Whether he's going or not Clegg has found a way of generating lots of interest in his speech

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    If there was LD leadership election before GE2015 then an existing minister would surely get it - thus screwing Farron

    That doesn't follow. There would be great advantages in not having an existing minister as the new leader. Untainted. Fresh start. Not having to cooperate in the Cabinet. Gloves off.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    David_Evershed said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm so glad this morning I merely mentioned the 1/16 on Clegg remaining till the election, rather than tipping it.


    Did you mean 16/1 rather than 1/16 but now think it was prophetic?
    This morning, when I wrote the piece at 6.30 am, he was 1/16 to remain LD leader at the election.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Roger said:

    I'd thought this would be bad for Ed and Labour but on reflection and if Tim Farron won I don't think it would be bad at all. If anyone can make Ed look like a heavyweight it's Tim Farron and a refreshed Lib Dem party attacking from the left can do nothing but good.

    I don't understand, Roger. How does a LD party which is more attractive to left-leaning voters help Labour?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    What about Carmichael who has already stood up to Clegg over SoS for Scotland? Is he the LDs' biggest beast from north of the border?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Barnesian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Whether he's going or not Clegg has found a way of generating lots of interest in his speech

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    If there was LD leadership election before GE2015 then an existing minister would surely get it - thus screwing Farron

    That doesn't follow. There would be great advantages in not having an existing minister as the new leader. Untainted. Fresh start. Not having to cooperate in the Cabinet. Gloves off.
    Yep, and Farron's been positioning himself specifically for that scenario. To the disdain of some of his colleagues, no doubt, but they don't have a particularly privileged position in the leadership contest.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,615
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Whether he's going or not Clegg has found a way of generating lots of interest in his speech

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    If there was LD leadership election before GE2015 then an existing minister would surely get it - thus screwing Farron

    Alexander? Not sure he would win back much support though. Too close to Clegg.

    Ed Davey? Steve Webb? Jo Swinson (long shot)

    Presume Vince is now old news.
    I like Swinson as next leader.. They need to differentiate themselves, and a female leader would be one way of doing that
    Swinson is losing her seat one way or another, or I'll be out of pocket.
    Even more differentiation, a leader thats not an MP! Works for UKIP
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,112
    Tissue_Price said:

    Roger said:

    I'd thought this would be bad for Ed and Labour but on reflection and if Tim Farron won I don't think it would be bad at all. If anyone can make Ed look like a heavyweight it's Tim Farron and a refreshed Lib Dem party attacking from the left can do nothing but good.

    I don't understand, Roger. How does a LD party which is more attractive to left-leaning voters help Labour?
    I was wondering the same thing.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    If Clegg goes before Carmichael quite a few of us will be mildly annoyed about that.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Anyone have the odds on Mike Smithson as the next Lib Dem leader?
  • Joe_PublicJoe_Public Posts: 1
    If he goes he'll just be replaced by someone doing an "Ed Miliband", hinting at how much they opposed the previous (Blair/Brown) regime but when you check their voting record on Hansard they voted FOR everything they now say they were averse to.

    (Not all that averse if you don't have the courage of your convictions to stand up and be counted) i.e: vote against them.

    That you wanted to see your govt successfully implement these policies (as will be shown by your votes) then please (to the new leader of the Irrelevant Dems) don't come singing the same song as Miliband did. Pay heid to the evidence of why he's the least popular leader in Labour's chequered history.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    antifrank said:

    Our host likes the look of Norman Lamb.

    Vince Cable would be the obvious safe pair of hands though, surely?

    Isn't Norman Lamb a bit barmey? Said MI5 were after him, or something..
    That's Norman Baker
    Thanks. Just shows you how much attention I pay to the Liberal Democrats.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Tissue_Price said:

    Roger said:

    I'd thought this would be bad for Ed and Labour but on reflection and if Tim Farron won I don't think it would be bad at all. If anyone can make Ed look like a heavyweight it's Tim Farron and a refreshed Lib Dem party attacking from the left can do nothing but good.

    I don't understand, Roger. How does a LD party which is more attractive to left-leaning voters help Labour?
    Because everyone will be attacking the Tories which will make Labour's supporters more likely to get out and vote.

    The last thing Labour want is anyone talking about their record from last time or their manifesto this time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,112
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Whether he's going or not Clegg has found a way of generating lots of interest in his speech

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    If there was LD leadership election before GE2015 then an existing minister would surely get it - thus screwing Farron

    Alexander? Not sure he would win back much support though. Too close to Clegg.

    Ed Davey? Steve Webb? Jo Swinson (long shot)

    Presume Vince is now old news.
    I like Swinson as next leader.. They need to differentiate themselves, and a female leader would be one way of doing that
    Swinson is losing her seat one way or another, or I'll be out of pocket.
    Even more differentiation, a leader thats not an MP! Works for UKIP
    However hopefully she'll replace Carmichael as Scottish SoS...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Paul Waugh retweeted


    Charlotte Henry ‏@charlotteahenry · 3 mins3 minutes ago
    One senior Lib Dem tells me that if Clegg quits today “he will be the first person to fall over with apoplexy” It’s not happening.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    @jimwaterson: Conference season: Labour weirdly pessimistic, Tories weirdly confident, UKIP manic, Lib Dems just totally content and planning for govt.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    CopperSulphate said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Roger said:

    I'd thought this would be bad for Ed and Labour but on reflection and if Tim Farron won I don't think it would be bad at all. If anyone can make Ed look like a heavyweight it's Tim Farron and a refreshed Lib Dem party attacking from the left can do nothing but good.

    I don't understand, Roger. How does a LD party which is more attractive to left-leaning voters help Labour?
    Because everyone will be attacking the Tories which will make Labour's supporters more likely to get out and vote.

    The last thing Labour want is anyone talking about their record from last time or their manifesto this time.
    Everyone's attacking the Tories already. Doesn't seem to be hurting that much.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    David_Evershed said:

    Anyone have the odds on Mike Smithson as the next Lib Dem leader?

    The first step is to win Rochester and Strood for the LibDems, he can ride the momentum from there.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,026
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all just a ruse to make us all watch his speech isn't it?

    If he's determined to stay, I can't believe they'd want speculation like this. It puts ideas in peoples' minds. I'm not really interested in people slashing odds. Far more interesting would be to see odds on him staying LENGTHENING.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pong said:

    Btw, am I the only one who finds ladbrokes' website utterly hopeless?

    Is there a way to change it back to the old site format?

    No, I end up using their app, their website last week kept on crashing my browsers.
    Ditto.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,694
    Huppert?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Tissue_Price said:

    If Clegg goes before Carmichael quite a few of us will be mildly annoyed about that.

    Tell me about it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Clegg ain't going anywhere pre May.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited October 2014
    Would PB posters vote Lib Dem if Mike Smithson were their leader?

    I certainly would.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    I think I need a drink.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,112
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all just a ruse to make us all watch his speech isn't it?

    If he's determined to stay, I can't believe they'd want speculation like this. It puts ideas in peoples' minds. I'm not really interested in people slashing odds. Far more interesting would be to see odds on him staying LENGTHENING.
    You can't get 1-3 on him to stay now or 5-6 for him not to announce his resignation now.

    They have lengthened. Though shorter than 6:30 am...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    edmundintokyo said:

    David_Evershed said:

    Anyone have the odds on Mike Smithson as the next Lib Dem leader?

    The first step is to win Rochester and Strood for the LibDems, he can ride the momentum from there.
    If Clegg stands down, he could stand for Sheffield Hallam. Should please TSE.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    edited October 2014
    Tissue_Price said:

    CopperSulphate said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Roger said:

    I'd thought this would be bad for Ed and Labour but on reflection and if Tim Farron won I don't think it would be bad at all. If anyone can make Ed look like a heavyweight it's Tim Farron and a refreshed Lib Dem party attacking from the left can do nothing but good.

    I don't understand, Roger. How does a LD party which is more attractive to left-leaning voters help Labour?
    Because everyone will be attacking the Tories which will make Labour's supporters more likely to get out and vote.

    The last thing Labour want is anyone talking about their record from last time or their manifesto this time.
    Everyone's attacking the Tories already. Doesn't seem to be hurting that much.
    There's a small chance that the Lib Dems will campaign on their record in helping clear up the mess left by Labour by being half sensible with spending.

    Of course they might just start booing the Tories like they usually do which would be entirely against their own interests.

    Also bear in mind the people most likely to vote on the strength of the simplistic "baby eating Tory" meme are Labour supporters.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Joe_Public said:

    If he goes he'll just be replaced by someone doing an "Ed Miliband", hinting at how much they opposed the previous (Blair/Brown) regime but when you check their voting record on Hansard they voted FOR everything they now say they were averse to.

    (Not all that averse if you don't have the courage of your convictions to stand up and be counted) i.e: vote against them.

    That you wanted to see your govt successfully implement these policies (as will be shown by your votes) then please (to the new leader of the Irrelevant Dems) don't come singing the same song as Miliband did. Pay heid to the evidence of why he's the least popular leader in Labour's chequered history.

    Ministers tend not to vote against their own governments if they want to remain ministers: collective responsibility and all that.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    OldKingCole said:

    Huppert?

    Why not - the very essence of Lib Demmery !
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,961
    Have we all just been the victim of another bookies big PR stunt? We'll see in an hour.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @jimwaterson: Conference season: Labour weirdly pessimistic, Tories weirdly confident, UKIP manic, Lib Dems just totally content and planning for govt.

    Surely he means preparing for government :')
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,066
    TP

    How can a Lib Dem party attacking from the left help Labour.


    We're talking an energetic new left leaning Party dishing the dirt on their ex partners. Anything that damages the Tories disproportionately helps Labour as the left's market leader.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    How about Nick Clegg to reveal Ken Clarke defecting to Lib Dems and to stand as their leader?
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    If Clegg goes AND they announce support for an English Parliament - well that might be a gamechanger for LibDem prospects.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,961
    David_Evershed said:

    How about Nick Clegg to reveal Ken Clarke defecting to Lib Dems and to stand as their leader?

    A stunner.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    edited October 2014
    Clegg is now 1/4 to be the Lib Dem leader at the general election (at 6.30 am he was 1/16)

    I know I'm tempting fate, but that's value IMHO.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,961
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Clegg is now 1/4 to be the Lib Dem leader at the general election (at 6.30 am he was 1/16)

    I know I'm tempting fate, but that's value IMHO.

    Well, it won't be there by 2:30pm IMHO.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Roger said:

    TP

    How can a Lib Dem party attacking from the left help Labour.


    We're talking an energetic new left leaning Party dishing the dirt on their ex partners. Anything that damages the Tories disproportionately helps Labour as the left's market leader.

    Can't see that myself. Or at least not a net positive for Labour - at a stretch, we might end up with LD +5 Con -2 Lab -3. But -1/-4 seems a more likely split in the case of any LD revival.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Patrick said:

    If Clegg goes AND they announce support for an English Parliament - well that might be a gamechanger for LibDem prospects.

    No chance of that. The anger on here at the idea of EV4EL from Lib Dems because it "helps the Tories" tells you everything you need to know.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Clegg is now 1/4 to be the Lib Dem leader at the general election (at 6.30 am he was 1/16)

    I know I'm tempting fate, but that's value IMHO.

    Well, it won't be there by 2:30pm IMHO.
    I'm on this again. I've taken the view from some time ago that Nick Clegg would see it out, and today's scare seems to have been entirely driven by Mr Power.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Clegg is now 1/4 to be the Lib Dem leader at the general election (at 6.30 am he was 1/16)

    I know I'm tempting fate, but that's value IMHO.

    Well, it won't be there by 2:30pm IMHO.
    He's 1/5 now
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    CopperSulphate said:

    Patrick said:

    If Clegg goes AND they announce support for an English Parliament - well that might be a gamechanger for LibDem prospects.

    No chance of that. The anger on here at the idea of EV4EL from Lib Dems because it "helps the Tories" tells you everything you need to know.
    An English Parliament is quite different to messing around with the House of Commons. The Liberal Democrats have long been in favour of a federal UK.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    God, this has been an exciting hour or so for pb addicts.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    If there's a devolution announcement, as I said earlier, I reckon a Cornish Assembly to try and kill an English Parliament off forever (by carving England up into shitty little regions) and some city-regions will be what they go for.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Clegg set to disappoint everyone again by not resigning.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    Maybe it's a rule the crossovers occur while I'm on a plane and party leaders quit while I'm on a train.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    Betting Post WI currently 219-3 with 12 overs of ODI left

    Still available at 2.18 to win

    Has to be great value they should get in the region of 330
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Roger said:

    TP

    How can a Lib Dem party attacking from the left help Labour.


    We're talking an energetic new left leaning Party dishing the dirt on their ex partners. Anything that damages the Tories disproportionately helps Labour as the left's market leader.

    Sorry Roger, but if the lib dems gain support from their current low base, they have to take it off labour, as that is who labour have taken it off them. Labour lose out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    The Paddy Power market on Clegg being LD leader at the election is here

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1298093
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    RobD said:

    Maybe it's a rule the crossovers occur while I'm on a plane and party leaders quit while I'm on a train.

    In one of the marvel comics I'm fairly certain that The Avengers once had a train that converted into a plane.

    Never get on that. You may destroy the political fabric of this country if you did.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    I am on WI at longer odds and disappointed with cash out on offer of £119

    West Indies
    3.209 £82.00 profit available £181.10
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Slackbladder said:

    Roger said:

    TP

    How can a Lib Dem party attacking from the left help Labour.


    We're talking an energetic new left leaning Party dishing the dirt on their ex partners. Anything that damages the Tories disproportionately helps Labour as the left's market leader.

    Sorry Roger, but if the lib dems gain support from their current low base, they have to take it off labour, as that is who labour have taken it off them. Labour lose out.
    In the latest Ashcroft national poll, the Liberal Democrat 2010 vote breaks down in this way:

    Con 14%
    Lab 19%
    LD 24%
    UKIP 13%
    Green 11%
    Ref/DK 13%

    A Lib Dem revival doesn't necessarily hurt Labour, it all depends on the details.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    God, this has been an exciting hour or so for pb addicts.

    A 2nd Cleggasm for you?
This discussion has been closed.

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