politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Clegg set to announce his departure today?

First!

Nick Clegg now at 1/5 to lead the party into the next election and 1/2 not to resign today with Paddy Power.

Bookies market looking better for Clegg last few minutes with Paddy:

antifrank said:

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

Pong said:

Paddy Power is being silly. They don't know anything that we don't know.

5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.

Having reflected, I've doubled down, both by betting No on this bet and on betting at 1/3 that Nick Clegg will remain to the next election.

I have a nasty feeling I'm going to look very silly very shortly.

How much did Paddy let you have on both ?

£11.72 for me on the "No", and I could have had £141 on the 1-3.

About the same on No and about £70 on the 1/3.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Slackbladder, possibly as Lib Dem leader, perhaps not as deputy PM. The odds have tumbled to below evens.

WILL NICK CLEGG ANNOUNCE HIS RESIGNATION TODAY?

No @ 1-2
Yes @ 6-4

WILL NICK CLEGG LEAD LIB DEMS INTO NEXT GENERAL ELECTION?

Singles Only. Applies to the party's leader on the date of the next general election.
Yes 1/5
No 3/1

@Antifrank out the woods ?

Alternatively: Jack Blanchard of the Daily Mirror tweets: Breaking. Paddy Power slash odds on Paddy Power getting a load of easy publicity from hungover political hacks in Glasgow

Pulpstar said:

Bookies market looking better for Clegg last few minutes with Paddy:

antifrank said:

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

Pong said:

Paddy Power is being silly. They don't know anything that we don't know.

5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.

Having reflected, I've doubled down, both by betting No on this bet and on betting at 1/3 that Nick Clegg will remain to the next election.

I have a nasty feeling I'm going to look very silly very shortly.

How much did Paddy let you have on both ?

£11.72 for me on the "No", and I could have had £141 on the 1-3.

About the same on No and about £70 on the 1/3.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Slackbladder, possibly as Lib Dem leader, perhaps not as deputy PM. The odds have tumbled to below evens.

WILL NICK CLEGG ANNOUNCE HIS RESIGNATION TODAY?

No @ 1-2
Yes @ 6-4

WILL NICK CLEGG LEAD LIB DEMS INTO NEXT GENERAL ELECTION?

Singles Only. Applies to the party's leader on the date of the next general election.
Yes 1/5
No 3/1

@Antifrank out the woods ?

I'd like to say that it's not the money, it's the ego. But the money would be a sore point too.

This is all just a ruse to make us all watch his speech isn't it?

I reckon he doesn't announce his resignation.

Hope you all got on that bet @ 5/6

That was easy money

Pong said:

Hope you all got on that bet @ 5/6

That was easy money

4-6 and only £11 but every little counts ^_~

Christmas comes early for the Blues if Clegg goes, especially if Farron takes it. Can't see it myself.

How much of this has been driven by Dan Hodges' article and a runaway rumour mill? All of it?

Anorak said:

Christmas comes early for the Blues if Clegg goes, especially if Farron takes it. Can't see it myself.

How much of this has been driven by Dan Hodges' article and a runaway rumour mill? All of it?

It would be a gift if he went.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

Whether he's going or not Clegg has found a way of generating lots of interest in his speech

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

If there was LD leadership election before GE2015 then an existing minister would surely get it - thus screwing Farron

Pong said:

Hope you all got on that bet @ 5/6

That was easy money

I was about to write "Typical bookie only offering one side of the market" when I saw the 5/6 on Clegg to go..

Couldn't believe it when I saw they were offering both sides!!

Didn't back it though, cant get on w Paddy

Pong said:

Btw, am I the only one who finds ladbrokes' website utterly hopeless?

Is there a way to change it back to the old site format?

No, I end up using their app, their website last week kept on crashing my browsers.

Pong said:

Btw, am I the only one who finds ladbrokes' website utterly hopeless?

Is there a way to change it back to the old site format?

No and no.

I reckon he will announce his wife is expecting another child. What else could Wintour of Guardian mean by tweeting: "Reckon the Clegger has the best, if not the most political, announcement of the conference season in his speech tomorrow."

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

Whether he's going or not Clegg has found a way of generating lots of interest in his speech

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

If there was LD leadership election before GE2015 then an existing minister would surely get it - thus screwing Farron

Alexander? Not sure he would win back much support though. Too close to Clegg.

Ed Davey? Steve Webb? Jo Swinson (long shot)

Presume Vince is now old news.

Anorak said:

Christmas comes early for the Blues if Clegg goes, especially if Farron takes it. Can't see it myself.

How much of this has been driven by Dan Hodges' article and a runaway rumour mill? All of it?

If it were due to Hodges there is one thing you can be sure of -- Nick Clegg's resignation would be a disaster for Ed Miliband.

antifrank said:

Our host likes the look of Norman Lamb.

Vince Cable would be the obvious safe pair of hands though, surely?

Isn't Norman Lamb a bit barmey? Said MI5 were after him, or something..

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

Whether he's going or not Clegg has found a way of generating lots of interest in his speech

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

If there was LD leadership election before GE2015 then an existing minister would surely get it - thus screwing Farron

Alexander? Not sure he would win back much support though. Too close to Clegg.

Ed Davey? Steve Webb? Jo Swinson (long shot)

Presume Vince is now old news.

I like Swinson as next leader.. They need to differentiate themselves, and a female leader would be one way of doing that

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so glad this morning I merely mentioned the 1/16 on Clegg remaining till the election, rather than tipping it.

Even though I'm not averse to long odds on betting I did think 1-16 looked a tad short.

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:

Our host likes the look of Norman Lamb.

Vince Cable would be the obvious safe pair of hands though, surely?

Isn't Norman Lamb a bit barmey? Said MI5 were after him, or something..

That's Norman Baker

I'd thought this would be bad for Ed and Labour but on reflection and if Tim Farron won I don't think it would be bad at all. If anyone can make Ed look like a heavyweight it's Tim Farron and a refreshed Lib Dem party attacking from the left can do nothing but good.

isam said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

Whether he's going or not Clegg has found a way of generating lots of interest in his speech

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

If there was LD leadership election before GE2015 then an existing minister would surely get it - thus screwing Farron

Alexander? Not sure he would win back much support though. Too close to Clegg.

Ed Davey? Steve Webb? Jo Swinson (long shot)

Presume Vince is now old news.

I like Swinson as next leader.. They need to differentiate themselves, and a female leader would be one way of doing that

Swinson is losing her seat one way or another, or I'll be out of pocket.

David_Evershed said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so glad this morning I merely mentioned the 1/16 on Clegg remaining till the election, rather than tipping it.

Did you mean 16/1 rather than 1/16 but now think it was prophetic?

This morning, when I wrote the piece at 6.30 am, he was 1/16 to remain LD leader at the election.

What about Carmichael who has already stood up to Clegg over SoS for Scotland? Is he the LDs' biggest beast from north of the border?

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

Whether he's going or not Clegg has found a way of generating lots of interest in his speech

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

If there was LD leadership election before GE2015 then an existing minister would surely get it - thus screwing Farron

Alexander? Not sure he would win back much support though. Too close to Clegg.

Ed Davey? Steve Webb? Jo Swinson (long shot)

Presume Vince is now old news.

I like Swinson as next leader.. They need to differentiate themselves, and a female leader would be one way of doing that

Swinson is losing her seat one way or another, or I'll be out of pocket.

Even more differentiation, a leader thats not an MP! Works for UKIP

If Clegg goes before Carmichael quite a few of us will be mildly annoyed about that.

If he goes he'll just be replaced by someone doing an "Ed Miliband", hinting at how much they opposed the previous (Blair/Brown) regime but when you check their voting record on Hansard they voted FOR everything they now say they were averse to.

(Not all that averse if you don't have the courage of your convictions to stand up and be counted) i.e: vote against them.

That you wanted to see your govt successfully implement these policies (as will be shown by your votes) then please (to the new leader of the Irrelevant Dems) don't come singing the same song as Miliband did. Pay heid to the evidence of why he's the least popular leader in Labour's chequered history.

Tissue_Price said:

Roger said:

I'd thought this would be bad for Ed and Labour but on reflection and if Tim Farron won I don't think it would be bad at all. If anyone can make Ed look like a heavyweight it's Tim Farron and a refreshed Lib Dem party attacking from the left can do nothing but good.

I don't understand, Roger. How does a LD party which is more attractive to left-leaning voters help Labour?

Because everyone will be attacking the Tories which will make Labour's supporters more likely to get out and vote.

The last thing Labour want is anyone talking about their record from last time or their manifesto this time.

Paul Waugh retweeted


Charlotte Henry ‏@charlotteahenry · 3 mins3 minutes ago
One senior Lib Dem tells me that if Clegg quits today “he will be the first person to fall over with apoplexy” It’s not happening.

CopperSulphate said:

Tissue_Price said:

Roger said:

I'd thought this would be bad for Ed and Labour but on reflection and if Tim Farron won I don't think it would be bad at all. If anyone can make Ed look like a heavyweight it's Tim Farron and a refreshed Lib Dem party attacking from the left can do nothing but good.

I don't understand, Roger. How does a LD party which is more attractive to left-leaning voters help Labour?

Because everyone will be attacking the Tories which will make Labour's supporters more likely to get out and vote.

The last thing Labour want is anyone talking about their record from last time or their manifesto this time.

Everyone's attacking the Tories already. Doesn't seem to be hurting that much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is all just a ruse to make us all watch his speech isn't it?

If he's determined to stay, I can't believe they'd want speculation like this. It puts ideas in peoples' minds. I'm not really interested in people slashing odds. Far more interesting would be to see odds on him staying LENGTHENING.

Huppert?

I think I need a drink.

edmundintokyo said:

David_Evershed said:

Anyone have the odds on Mike Smithson as the next Lib Dem leader?

The first step is to win Rochester and Strood for the LibDems, he can ride the momentum from there.

If Clegg stands down, he could stand for Sheffield Hallam. Should please TSE.

Joe_Public said:

If he goes he'll just be replaced by someone doing an "Ed Miliband", hinting at how much they opposed the previous (Blair/Brown) regime but when you check their voting record on Hansard they voted FOR everything they now say they were averse to.

(Not all that averse if you don't have the courage of your convictions to stand up and be counted) i.e: vote against them.

That you wanted to see your govt successfully implement these policies (as will be shown by your votes) then please (to the new leader of the Irrelevant Dems) don't come singing the same song as Miliband did. Pay heid to the evidence of why he's the least popular leader in Labour's chequered history.

Ministers tend not to vote against their own governments if they want to remain ministers: collective responsibility and all that.

Have we all just been the victim of another bookies big PR stunt? We'll see in an hour.

TP

How can a Lib Dem party attacking from the left help Labour.


We're talking an energetic new left leaning Party dishing the dirt on their ex partners. Anything that damages the Tories disproportionately helps Labour as the left's market leader.

If Clegg goes AND they announce support for an English Parliament - well that might be a gamechanger for LibDem prospects.

Clegg is now 1/4 to be the Lib Dem leader at the general election (at 6.30 am he was 1/16)

I know I'm tempting fate, but that's value IMHO.

Roger said:

TP

How can a Lib Dem party attacking from the left help Labour.


We're talking an energetic new left leaning Party dishing the dirt on their ex partners. Anything that damages the Tories disproportionately helps Labour as the left's market leader.

Can't see that myself. Or at least not a net positive for Labour - at a stretch, we might end up with LD +5 Con -2 Lab -3. But -1/-4 seems a more likely split in the case of any LD revival.

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Clegg is now 1/4 to be the Lib Dem leader at the general election (at 6.30 am he was 1/16)

I know I'm tempting fate, but that's value IMHO.

Well, it won't be there by 2:30pm IMHO.

I'm on this again. I've taken the view from some time ago that Nick Clegg would see it out, and today's scare seems to have been entirely driven by Mr Power.

CopperSulphate said:

Patrick said:

If Clegg goes AND they announce support for an English Parliament - well that might be a gamechanger for LibDem prospects.

No chance of that. The anger on here at the idea of EV4EL from Lib Dems because it "helps the Tories" tells you everything you need to know.

An English Parliament is quite different to messing around with the House of Commons. The Liberal Democrats have long been in favour of a federal UK.

If there's a devolution announcement, as I said earlier, I reckon a Cornish Assembly to try and kill an English Parliament off forever (by carving England up into shitty little regions) and some city-regions will be what they go for.

Maybe it's a rule the crossovers occur while I'm on a plane and party leaders quit while I'm on a train.

Roger said:

TP

How can a Lib Dem party attacking from the left help Labour.


We're talking an energetic new left leaning Party dishing the dirt on their ex partners. Anything that damages the Tories disproportionately helps Labour as the left's market leader.

Sorry Roger, but if the lib dems gain support from their current low base, they have to take it off labour, as that is who labour have taken it off them. Labour lose out.

RobD said:

Maybe it's a rule the crossovers occur while I'm on a plane and party leaders quit while I'm on a train.

In one of the marvel comics I'm fairly certain that The Avengers once had a train that converted into a plane.

Never get on that. You may destroy the political fabric of this country if you did.

Slackbladder said:

Roger said:

TP

How can a Lib Dem party attacking from the left help Labour.


We're talking an energetic new left leaning Party dishing the dirt on their ex partners. Anything that damages the Tories disproportionately helps Labour as the left's market leader.

Sorry Roger, but if the lib dems gain support from their current low base, they have to take it off labour, as that is who labour have taken it off them. Labour lose out.

In the latest Ashcroft national poll, the Liberal Democrat 2010 vote breaks down in this way:

Con 14%
Lab 19%
LD 24%
UKIP 13%
Green 11%
Ref/DK 13%

A Lib Dem revival doesn't necessarily hurt Labour, it all depends on the details.